1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jailey. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you inside from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. It 5 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,560 Speaker 1: is the most interesting year for Goldman Sachs, but it was. 6 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 1: What's so important in back the eighteen sixty nine is, 7 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:38,560 Speaker 1: at one point Goldman Sachs was a small business. Things 8 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: have changed, and for David Solomon, the history of Goldman 9 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,639 Speaker 1: Sachs is front and center and also the future as 10 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 1: well with Mr Solomon Urani. Thank you Tom, and thank 11 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: you David for joining me today. You know, we're here 12 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 1: outside the Capitol building and you have picketed the lawn 13 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: with help wanted signs. You know you had said Goldman 14 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,919 Speaker 1: Sachs had said just weeks ago that more than thirty 15 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 1: percent of small businesses didn't even know that they could 16 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 1: survive through this pandemic. What's at stake here, well, small 17 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 1: businesses are First of all, thank you for having me. 18 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: I'm thrilled to be here, you know, out cold with 19 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:19,959 Speaker 1: you outside the Capitol on this this gray morning but 20 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 1: small businesses are such a vitally important part of our economy, 21 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: and they're so important in terms of how they employ, 22 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 1: take care of families, contribute to the communities that we 23 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 1: all live and operated. And they've been so badly hit, 24 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 1: so badly affected by the pandemic, and they need help. 25 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: And some help has come, but more help is needed. 26 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:40,039 Speaker 1: And so one of the things we're trying to do 27 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:43,680 Speaker 1: by picketing here on the hill is to let Congress 28 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,240 Speaker 1: know there are a number of things that small businesses 29 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: still need help and support on to get to the 30 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 1: other side. They can see the light at the end 31 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 1: of the tunnel, but they need some help, you know, 32 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 1: to get through the tunnel and get to the other side. Now, 33 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 1: a lot of this is about stimulus, and Joe Biden 34 00:01:56,960 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 1: himself has called the current package a down payment. So 35 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 1: what is the David Solomon plan? What would you say 36 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:05,920 Speaker 1: is needed in terms of the amount needed to save 37 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: this economy. So one of the things that we've done 38 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: over the course of the last few months, given that 39 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 1: we have over ten thousand businesses, small businesses that have 40 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: been through our program over the course of the last descade, 41 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:17,640 Speaker 1: as we've gone out we've surveyed them and we've talked 42 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:20,240 Speaker 1: to them, and we've created something called ten thousand Small 43 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 1: Businesses Voices, which is really an advocacy platform, and we've 44 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 1: asked them, what do you need help with? And if 45 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 1: you look at these placards that are on the lawn, 46 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 1: they raise a number of issues that the small businesses 47 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 1: are saying, Hey, we need help with this, And i'd 48 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 1: highlight three of them to you that I think are 49 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 1: very very important. The first is they need access to capital. 50 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,600 Speaker 1: They need capital to bridge them through this challenging period 51 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 1: of time, and something like the Restart Act I think 52 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 1: is a good way to get it. That Second, they 53 00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 1: talk about the need to support the people who work 54 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 1: for them, particularly around healthcare, and healthcare costs are just 55 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 1: so prohibitive. Often they're not in a position to take 56 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 1: care of the healthcare issues that their employees have, and 57 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: so they need some way to create better incentives to 58 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 1: provide healthcare support for their employees. And Third, because people 59 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 1: are working harder given the challenges they face, they need 60 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 1: more help with childcare and just basic support so they 61 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 1: can be president at work but also make sure that 62 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 1: their children are taken care of. You know, while they're 63 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:17,240 Speaker 1: working and trying to keep their businesses afloat. So all 64 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 1: of this is happening as unemployment still remains very elevated, 65 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 1: and it's even worse for Black Americans, even worse for 66 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 1: Hispanic Americans and Asian Americans. What do you think on 67 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 1: day one is going to be Joe Biden's toughest task 68 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 1: in fixing that gap. Well, the toughest task that the 69 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: new administration has is continuing to march forward, to make 70 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 1: progress on getting the vaccines distributed so we can get 71 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 1: to the other side of the virus. There is going 72 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 1: to be a lot of discussion about what additional stimulus 73 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 1: is needed. We've raised a bunch of issues here this 74 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: morning where we're trying to get people focused on things 75 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 1: that we think needs to be included in any additional 76 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: stimulus that's brought forward. But I think the big focus 77 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 1: right now is we've got to get people vaccinated. We've 78 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: got to get to the other side of the virus. Well, 79 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 1: a lot of the market had been reacting to this 80 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: vaccine hope, but the role out has been so slow 81 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 1: so far, and it's done a lot of concerns. How 82 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 1: is that impacting your own plans and how is that 83 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 1: impacting the plans of your clients. Well, I think there's 84 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 1: still a lot of uncertainty, and there's no question that 85 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 1: the supply of vaccine is growing. In fact, I'm very 86 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:21,600 Speaker 1: encouraged by the amount of vaccine that's out there. But 87 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:25,719 Speaker 1: we have to find more flexible, nimble, more efficient ways 88 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:29,240 Speaker 1: to get that vaccine distributed. And I'm hopeful that, in 89 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 1: addition to the state actions that are being taken around 90 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 1: the country, potentially will allow the private sector to help 91 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 1: with plans to get this vaccine distributed. There's plenty of vaccine, 92 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 1: we have to create increased speed and efficiency in getting 93 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 1: that vaccine to people who are in need, especially vulnerable 94 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 1: people and frontline workers who need the support. Right now, 95 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:49,480 Speaker 1: do you think it's moving fast enough that you'll be 96 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 1: able to bring Goldman SAX employees back and full by 97 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,480 Speaker 1: the end of the year. I I certainly would expect 98 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:56,520 Speaker 1: that we'll have Golden SAX employees back and full by 99 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:57,919 Speaker 1: the end of the year. We will get through this 100 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:00,720 Speaker 1: um and I'm really hopeful that over the course of 101 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 1: the next six months we see a real improvement. But 102 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 1: they still work to be done, and once we deal 103 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:10,000 Speaker 1: with the vaccine and the virus and people feel safe. 104 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:12,040 Speaker 1: We're still going to have to deal with the economic 105 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 1: consequence of the shutdowns and the impact on our economy 106 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: that this pandemic has had, and that I think will 107 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:22,719 Speaker 1: be a bumpier a longer period of time before we 108 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 1: get to the next six months. We have to get 109 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:28,160 Speaker 1: past the next three weeks and tonight with Georgia going on. 110 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 1: I know everyone would love your opinion here on if 111 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 1: the Democrats were to win the seats, what kind of 112 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 1: impact would that have on the markets. Well, I'm watching 113 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 1: the election as anybody everybody is, and you know, we'll 114 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 1: see over whether it's tonight or it's over the next 115 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 1: couple of days, what the what the result is um 116 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 1: you know, depending on the result, that obviously can have 117 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:52,599 Speaker 1: an impact on policy policy effects markets. I think the 118 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 1: markets think that this this election at the moment is 119 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 1: still very uncertain, very close, too close to call, and 120 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 1: so like you, we'll watch and we'll see the outcome, 121 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 1: and then we'll listen to the policy responses. The policy 122 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 1: responses will have an impact on markets at that point 123 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 1: in time. It's a lot of the concerns simply around 124 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:10,840 Speaker 1: taxes and the taxation of corporations on well the individuals 125 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 1: or what is really the concern? I think I think 126 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:18,719 Speaker 1: people like people like to know the answer. The answer 127 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: is uncertain at the moment. I'm sure once we know 128 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: the answer will move forward. Markets will be Markets will 129 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:27,680 Speaker 1: be fine. That doesn't mean they'll go up the way 130 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:30,280 Speaker 1: they've gone up the last few months, but markets will 131 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,159 Speaker 1: be fine. We'll move forward. I think the big focus 132 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 1: has to be on getting the economy back in shape, 133 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 1: getting people employed, helping small businesses, really dealing with the 134 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 1: consequence an impact of the pandemic, not so much the 135 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,359 Speaker 1: short term gyrations of the market. And on top of 136 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:48,960 Speaker 1: the Georgia elections, we do have this issue of certifying 137 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:51,599 Speaker 1: the Biden win. And you are one of two almost 138 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 1: two hundred executives that had signed a letter urging Congress 139 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:58,680 Speaker 1: to do so. What's at risk here amid all these uncertainties. Well, 140 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 1: I think at this point in time, it's important for 141 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 1: us to get focused on the tasks that are at hand. 142 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 1: We have to get through the pandemic, we have to 143 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 1: help those in need in the economy. We've got to 144 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 1: get the economy running again. And so I congratulated the 145 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 1: president elect back in November when it was clear to 146 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: me that he was the president elect and we were 147 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 1: going to go move forward. What's going on here the 148 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: next couple of days, I think is a distraction. I 149 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 1: know what will happen on the twentie of January, and 150 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 1: we will move forward, and that's what's important at this point. 151 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 1: Do you have the twentieth of January, then, in the 152 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: first days of Biden's and in presidency, what do you 153 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 1: expect from him? What do you want to see beyond 154 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 1: the vaccine I'd like to see. I'd like to see 155 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 1: some leadership around helping us all move forward around the pandemic, 156 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 1: helping us move forward in terms of economically supporting those 157 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: that need help because of the pandemic, particularly small businesses. 158 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 1: I'd like to see a consistent message as to what 159 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 1: we all need to do to come together to solve 160 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 1: these problems. This is a time for us to come 161 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: together as a country to get past the pandemic and 162 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 1: move forward and help people that have been really adversely 163 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 1: affected by this this horrible twelve months that we've had. 164 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 1: You know, I think there's a lot of been a 165 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 1: lot of concerns for many months about why the stock 166 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: market has been rallying so much while we have so 167 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 1: many of these underlying concerns. Do you have any concerns 168 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 1: about the fragility of the market at these current levels, 169 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 1: given that we still have so much wrong? Well, I 170 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 1: think that there's no question that the monetary policy and 171 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:27,280 Speaker 1: fiscal policy actions have definitely been very, very supportive of 172 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 1: asset prices, and so obviously equity markets benefit from that. 173 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 1: I said a few weeks ago, and I stand by 174 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 1: it now. It's hard to justify some of the valuations 175 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 1: I see in the market, particularly around very very growthy companies, 176 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: around some of the I p O s that have come. Uh. 177 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:45,959 Speaker 1: We've seen other periods of ebulence and markets before they 178 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 1: rebalance over time, and my expectation is some of the 179 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 1: excess we've seen maybe over the course of the last 180 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 1: few months, will rebalance in the coming months. But I'm 181 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 1: much more focused on the medium or long term. I 182 00:08:57,040 --> 00:08:59,640 Speaker 1: don't get too upset about short term market generations. I 183 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:01,839 Speaker 1: do gonna get your opinion here on something else that's 184 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 1: going on in the market that a lot of other 185 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 1: people are concerned about. You know, we saw this big 186 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 1: move by the New York Stock exchange also to potentially 187 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 1: delist some Chinese companies and then reverse that course. You know, 188 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:15,559 Speaker 1: you're somebody who has a lot of business abroad, huge 189 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 1: growth areya in China. I'm wondering what all these uncertainties 190 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 1: mean for you in terms of China reopening its financial system. Well, 191 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:26,200 Speaker 1: the first the first stage of the first phase of 192 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 1: the trade agreement called for broader access for financial firms 193 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 1: to markets in China, and that's being executed. You know, 194 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 1: at the moment, we'll see if it carries through and 195 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 1: executes all the way. But the relationship between the US 196 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 1: and China right now, the by latter relationship is incredibly complex, 197 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 1: and I think it's one of the big challenges that 198 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 1: the Biden administration has going forward. The foreign policy strategy 199 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: that we've really executed on with China over the last 200 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 1: forty years, and that allowing them to participate with all 201 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 1: the other economies around the world, including the S and 202 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:03,120 Speaker 1: thinking they'll move in our direction in terms of how 203 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: they operate. That does not seem to have worked. Uh, 204 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 1: And we need to ensure as we go forward that 205 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 1: the playing field is level and fair and appropriate. And 206 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:13,679 Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be big challenges to that as 207 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,160 Speaker 1: we move forward, But that's something that the administration will 208 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 1: have to take on. But there's a lot of uncertainty 209 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 1: around that, and I think that's something that we're going 210 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 1: to be talking about and living with and thinking about 211 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:24,520 Speaker 1: for a number of years as we move forward to 212 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:26,320 Speaker 1: the future. Right, That's what that was gonna be. My 213 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 1: other question, how much of an overhang do you think 214 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:30,719 Speaker 1: that uncertainty will be? I mean, Biden has all these 215 00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 1: other issues as we discussed to take care of first, 216 00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:35,599 Speaker 1: how how quickly do you think the trade relationship with 217 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:38,440 Speaker 1: China will get figured out? I think this is a 218 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:40,679 Speaker 1: complicated issue that's going to take time to sort out, 219 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 1: but certainly I know will be a big focus of 220 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 1: the Biden administration, as it was with the Trump administration. 221 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:48,439 Speaker 1: I think it'll be important for us to continue to 222 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 1: focus on improving that relationship and making progress to level 223 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 1: the plane for field and assure that that that partnership. 224 00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:00,320 Speaker 1: We have to work with China as a trade partner. 225 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:02,720 Speaker 1: We have to work with China sometimes as a competitor. 226 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 1: We have to work with China sometimes as an adversary. 227 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 1: But we have to balance all that and do what's 228 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 1: right for the US to move forward. So I want 229 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 1: to turn to your business for a second, because in 230 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 1: the most recent quarter you had a standout quarter, right 231 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:16,840 Speaker 1: it was returns of equity of more than sevent uh 232 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 1: You know, people look into one and I think everyone 233 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:22,200 Speaker 1: wants to know what is the biggest growth driver for 234 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 1: you this year? Well, we um we have a number 235 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: of businesses I think, as you know and you and 236 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:31,079 Speaker 1: I have talked before. We obviously have our big corporate 237 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:35,960 Speaker 1: investment bank with our business that serves governments, institutions, corporate 238 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: clients broadly, that's investment, banking, sales and trading UH and 239 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:41,440 Speaker 1: there are clients given the uncertainty in the world, have 240 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:44,360 Speaker 1: been very very active and we expect that activity to continue. 241 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 1: We also have a large asset management business. We're very 242 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 1: very significant asset manager globally around the world in almost 243 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 1: all products broadly, and we think there's a lot of 244 00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 1: opportunity for us to continue to help our clients in 245 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 1: the asset management business and that's an area of growth 246 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:01,559 Speaker 1: for us and something that we've been focused on. In addition, 247 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 1: we have a consumer wealth business that we're expanding, a 248 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 1: digital consumer business that we're trying to grow so that 249 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 1: we can serve a broader array of clients with respect 250 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,559 Speaker 1: to all their financial leads digitally, and we're very focused 251 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 1: on the growth of that business. So those are three 252 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:18,400 Speaker 1: big platforms broadly, and we see growth opportunities and all 253 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:20,600 Speaker 1: three of them as we move forward, and we're gonna 254 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:24,319 Speaker 1: work hard to help our clients manage their financial needs 255 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 1: because that's that's a big part of what we do 256 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:28,040 Speaker 1: on a day to day basis. You know, even after 257 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 1: a pandemic, you still have all this excess capital. What 258 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 1: are you gonna do with all of that. Well, we're 259 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:36,080 Speaker 1: making investments in our business, as we just discussed, and 260 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 1: that obviously requires capital. Um We have not been able 261 00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 1: to return capital to shareholders during the course of this 262 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 1: year because we took that action with a number of 263 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 1: the other large banks back in the spring because we 264 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:50,960 Speaker 1: didn't think it's appropriate. We probably are in a position 265 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:54,400 Speaker 1: to start that at some point one and so we 266 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: will consider, uh, you know, we will consider both investments 267 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 1: and return of capital as appropriate as we've forward. Also 268 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 1: be watching for deals. Thank you so much David for 269 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:08,000 Speaker 1: joining us in a tone best thank you so much 270 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 1: with the leader of Goldman Sex and again extraordinary year 271 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 1: for Goldman Sex. You wonder what two one will bring 272 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:22,240 Speaker 1: James everything, because with everything standard, he's given us wonderful 273 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 1: perspective across assets as well. James, how have you already 274 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:32,320 Speaker 1: rewritten your two thousand twenty one outlook morning, Tom? Thankfully 275 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 1: I haven't had to just yet. Um, it was obviously 276 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:38,840 Speaker 1: a very strong market consensus coming into this year that 277 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 1: we were going to see really a very happy market environment, 278 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 1: with everything risk facing and cyclical performing extremely well, and 279 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 1: possibly a steady but low volatility, and in no way 280 00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:55,679 Speaker 1: concerning rising in treasury yields and steepening of the curve 281 00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 1: the dollar. I think everybody wants to be selling the dollar. 282 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:01,440 Speaker 1: There are inje of views as to how far that 283 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 1: will move. You mentioned City. I think that they're up 284 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 1: there with one of the bigger moves that they're forecasting. 285 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,839 Speaker 1: But that's all part of the saint market environment of 286 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 1: risk on. And then yesterday happened, and and already I 287 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 1: can I can imagine that some people might be sweating 288 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 1: a little about the one cause, but we've been cautious 289 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:24,360 Speaker 1: and defensive and circumspect about the economic how look, certainly 290 00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 1: for the first half of the year, so nothing that 291 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 1: happened yesterday has changed James. We just hit on Russ 292 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 1: coster Rich of black Rock, who's taken a massive victory 293 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 1: lap on a on A two thousand twenty where his 294 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 1: portfolio was up plus. You know, really extraordinary when you 295 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 1: look at everybody's returns mixed in. Mr Costrich mentioned a 296 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 1: Barbell strategy, and I would compare that to a diversified strategy. 297 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 1: Discuss how you're approaching that. Are we diversified in two 298 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 1: thousand twenty one or do we make bets within an 299 00:14:56,760 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 1: equity Barbell strategy. Sometimes diversification seems to be seen as 300 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 1: a dirty word. People make ex post comparisons against the 301 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 1: best performing asset or asset class and say, well, if 302 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:12,360 Speaker 1: you didn't achieve that return, then then what you've achieved 303 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 1: is not not acceptable. The reality is that long term 304 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 1: performance is achieved not by being top top percentile one 305 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 1: year and bottom percentile the next, but by sticking around 306 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 1: the middle of the pack um and chipping away at 307 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:28,720 Speaker 1: those returns over a long period, and diversification is a 308 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:32,000 Speaker 1: way of achieving that. Now, in the current market environment, 309 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 1: diversification is difficult because we have very slim number of 310 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 1: themes driving markets and a high degree of of correlation 311 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 1: across assets in relation to those macro themes. But that 312 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: doesn't mean that there aren't diversification benefits and there aren't 313 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 1: ways of diversifying side. Still highly recommend that, you know, 314 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 1: the vast majority of investors should be diversifying wherever possible 315 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 1: across assets, and that includes you know, things like precious metals, 316 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 1: and if you're that way inclined, potentially even things like 317 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 1: cryptocurrency that I have to say, I am skeptical on 318 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 1: that front. Wait, hold on a second. We're not going 319 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 1: to let you go mentioning bitcoin just sort of on 320 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 1: the side here as a potential alternative. Are you seriously 321 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,160 Speaker 1: considering this going forward if there is more stability and 322 00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 1: say bitcoin, No, not really, because I still don't see 323 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 1: the use case as being convincing in the slightest. You know, 324 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 1: one of the big advantages apparently of bitcoin is that 325 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 1: it has limited supply, and that's true, but cryptocurrencies do 326 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 1: not have limited supply. So given that the blockchain is 327 00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:33,840 Speaker 1: pretty open source, what is really to prevent an alternative 328 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 1: to bitcoin appearing and having another twenty one million coins available? 329 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 1: There is nothing really to prevent that, given that you 330 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 1: can't pay your taxes in bitcoin, and it's volatility relative 331 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:44,760 Speaker 1: to the kinds of fear currency that you do pay 332 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 1: your taxes in is incredible. It really isn't a store 333 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: of value that can be used on a day to 334 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: day basis at the moment. Anyway, I think the case 335 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 1: for Bitcoin today, and the one that seems to be 336 00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:58,080 Speaker 1: driving the price in dramatic fashion, it is merely that 337 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: thea currency is being played with by central banks to 338 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 1: an extreme that we really haven't seen in the Western world. 339 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 1: And therefore the chances of fear currency across the board 340 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:13,160 Speaker 1: losing its value, not relative to one another, but all 341 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 1: of them, is meaningful and people are saying, well, what 342 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,719 Speaker 1: can I invest in that doesn't involve me being denominated 343 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:22,760 Speaker 1: in fear currency? And so Bitcoin, you know, it does 344 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:26,640 Speaker 1: satisfy I think that requirement, but without a use case, 345 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 1: I still struggle to believe that that is a long 346 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 1: term investment that I believe truly has value. I've got 347 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:34,160 Speaker 1: to say, I haven't heard a lot of people talk 348 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,239 Speaker 1: about how you can't pay taxes in bitcoin and how 349 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 1: this is a potential detraction for the crypto acid. I 350 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,280 Speaker 1: will say yesterday's sell off was sort of heralded as 351 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:44,479 Speaker 1: some as bringing risk back to the market. What did 352 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 1: you make of it? Yeah, it was a funny one, really, 353 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:48,920 Speaker 1: wasn't it. I Mean there are a number of again 354 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:52,439 Speaker 1: expost rationalizations as to why I guess my on a 355 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,159 Speaker 1: daily basis, Obviously we have no idea. Excuse me, we 356 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 1: have no idea really what drives markets. But I would 357 00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 1: just look at the preponderance of things which are going 358 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:06,679 Speaker 1: on macro, political, technical, in financial markets and inequity markets 359 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,199 Speaker 1: in particular, and say that we were really at some 360 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,399 Speaker 1: extremes in terms of what was implicitly being discanted or 361 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 1: priced or expected by markets. They really were managing to 362 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 1: see the best in everything um and that includes some 363 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:20,879 Speaker 1: you know, some well known tech companies which have got 364 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 1: astronomical valuations, but some not very well known tech companies 365 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 1: which have got astronomical valuations as well. And so the 366 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:28,399 Speaker 1: combination of these things I think meant that we had 367 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 1: a market which was particularly fragile, and I still think 368 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,200 Speaker 1: it is particularly fragile. I don't think it's going to 369 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:36,440 Speaker 1: take much in terms of disappointment to see some further 370 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,159 Speaker 1: froth coming out of equities James, the gloom crew is 371 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,240 Speaker 1: out in force. You're not part of that crew. Can 372 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 1: you see a bear market coming? I mean all the fundamentally, 373 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:50,200 Speaker 1: all the conditions really have been there for a bear 374 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:53,160 Speaker 1: market for quite some time, because in spite of what 375 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 1: we've seen, equities have managed to maintain a complete disconnect 376 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 1: from the real world. And all the people are doing 377 00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 1: is trying to expost justify that by saying, well, the 378 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:05,680 Speaker 1: equity market has never been the real economy. But that's 379 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 1: not really true. Over long periods of time, there is 380 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:12,639 Speaker 1: absolutely a link between economic activity UM and company revenues. 381 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,960 Speaker 1: There has to be. That's inevitable UM. So it's not 382 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 1: a question of you know, the conditions being there today necessarily, 383 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,119 Speaker 1: because that's looking for triggers, and we've always said that 384 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 1: triggers are difficult to identify until you see them in 385 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:28,040 Speaker 1: the rear view mirror. For me, it's about identifying where 386 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 1: there are risks and fragilities, and I think there are 387 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:33,640 Speaker 1: so many of those that we don't have long enough 388 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:37,000 Speaker 1: to cover them all. Really, James Afi, thank you so much. 389 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 1: Just a lot of elveryn in standard investment senior investment manager. 390 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:47,880 Speaker 1: Right now, the gentleman has given us the greatest leadership 391 00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:51,840 Speaker 1: during this pandemic. Peter ots of conversations of February and 392 00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 1: March at Baylor College, and of course he has received 393 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:58,159 Speaker 1: the vaccine. No shark there, Peter ote Is. To go 394 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:00,639 Speaker 1: to the directness of it, What was it like the 395 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 1: jab in the arm? That was? It was fine? Tom, 396 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:06,880 Speaker 1: Thanks for asking. You know, it was uh that evening. 397 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:10,440 Speaker 1: I had some arm soreness and somebody aches, maybe even 398 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:14,439 Speaker 1: a little bit of low grade fever um the next morning, 399 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,960 Speaker 1: a little achy by mid morning the next day. Totally fine. 400 00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 1: So no worse than any other adult vaccination, no worse 401 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 1: than mastion gricks. Like in the cable TV business, Peter Hotez, 402 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:29,120 Speaker 1: and you've been everywhere on cable TV informing America. It's 403 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,919 Speaker 1: about the cable of the last mile. We're at the 404 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:36,360 Speaker 1: last mile now on vaccines. We're trying to get vaccines 405 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 1: worldwide to people, and we're not doing very well at it. 406 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:45,520 Speaker 1: Are you surprised? Yeah, I'm actually profoundly disappointed Tom. It 407 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 1: we're now starting to realize the reality that there is 408 00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:52,760 Speaker 1: no national strategy in the United States to vaccinate the 409 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 1: US population. You know, everything we've heard about with operation 410 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 1: work speed around the logistics. What they were really talking 411 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 1: about was the logistics of getting boxes onto the ups 412 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 1: and FedEx trucks and FedEx planes and and ensuring that 413 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 1: there was no violation of the freezer chain, and but 414 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 1: that there was no plan after that to vaccinate the 415 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,960 Speaker 1: American people. I remember Alan Meltzer, where the freezer in 416 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,400 Speaker 1: the corner in the fifties, Peter Hotez, we got from 417 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,120 Speaker 1: Sock to Sabin, and now we've got to get out 418 00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:25,600 Speaker 1: to Hotez and your low cost vaccine. Why could we 419 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 1: do this with other things and we can't do it 420 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,960 Speaker 1: with COVID nineteen. You know, this has been the story 421 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,840 Speaker 1: of We've come up small every time in terms of 422 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:38,399 Speaker 1: our public health response and an absence of a national strategy. 423 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:42,080 Speaker 1: We muffed on the diagnostic testing. We never did hold 424 00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:45,359 Speaker 1: of virus genomic sequencing at the level that we needed 425 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,560 Speaker 1: to like to have in the UK or Australia. And 426 00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,159 Speaker 1: this is just more of the same assist insistence that 427 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 1: the States have to be in the lead when we 428 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 1: know they don't have the epidemiology and scientific horsepower to 429 00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 1: know how to lead this and we need the intervention 430 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,399 Speaker 1: of the federal government, and now we've got to vaccinate 431 00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:03,680 Speaker 1: tom The estimates are we want to vaccinate two d 432 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:07,280 Speaker 1: forty million Americans, three quarters of the US population to 433 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,920 Speaker 1: interrupt transmission by stay September one. That's one to one 434 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 1: point five million Americans every day from now until September one. 435 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 1: So far, we've vaccinated about four millions. So we need 436 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 1: to step up. This is our last chance, really, because 437 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,119 Speaker 1: you know, the US government has backed us into a 438 00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:27,600 Speaker 1: corner without any national containment strategy. They've now said, we've 439 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:29,920 Speaker 1: got to vaccinate our way out of this, and that's 440 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:31,520 Speaker 1: what we have to do. We have to find a 441 00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:33,880 Speaker 1: way to stop coming up small and and and get 442 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,159 Speaker 1: this done. Doctor, who does can we quantify some of 443 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,400 Speaker 1: what you're talking about in terms of when the pandemic will, 444 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,960 Speaker 1: for all intents and purposes be over based on the 445 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 1: vaccination schedule that you see versus what it could have 446 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 1: been over in the United States had there been a 447 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:51,280 Speaker 1: plan that you think would have been more adequate. Well, 448 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:53,280 Speaker 1: you know, I think right now what we need to 449 00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:57,159 Speaker 1: focus on is getting the US population vaccinated by the summer. 450 00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:00,399 Speaker 1: That's the only way we're going to interrupt virus trans mission. 451 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:03,680 Speaker 1: And that's a really high bar. You know, again, three 452 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,920 Speaker 1: quarters of the US population. That's that's our estimate with 453 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 1: a group of city University of New York, that's two 454 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:11,639 Speaker 1: hundred and forty million Americans. Let me give you an 455 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,600 Speaker 1: example of New York City. Let's say the metro area 456 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:18,480 Speaker 1: is eighteen million people. That's a roughly twelve million New 457 00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:22,480 Speaker 1: Yorkers that we have to vaccinate by the summer. That's uh, 458 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 1: what is that's two million vaccinations every month. That's five 459 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 1: hundred thousand per week. We're not going to get there, 460 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,920 Speaker 1: you know, with people calling up Dwayne Reid and write 461 00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,520 Speaker 1: aid in Sam's Club and saying, do you have vaccination 462 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,280 Speaker 1: vaccine for my mom and dad? Or the hospital change. 463 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 1: We're going to have to open up City fielding Yankee 464 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 1: Stadium and create a high throughput mechanism for making this happen. 465 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 1: And it's just shocking that there seems to be this 466 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 1: lack of situational awareness across the country that this is 467 00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 1: what we need to do. Lisa, do you see how 468 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 1: Hotess does a math there? That's why he's Peter Hotests 469 00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:58,159 Speaker 1: and we're not. He's pounded through the math down to 470 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:01,239 Speaker 1: per hour vaccinations. We talk about the math of the 471 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 1: dosing of some of these vaccines. Dr Hotels, There's been 472 00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:07,760 Speaker 1: some discussion not only just about the distribution mechanism that 473 00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:10,560 Speaker 1: you're talking about, but also about the supplies, whether we 474 00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:13,800 Speaker 1: have enough to get two rounds of vaccinations to that 475 00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 1: critical mass of population, with some proposals now saying reduce 476 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 1: the dosing and it will be just as effective. What's 477 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 1: your take on that. My take is the evidence space 478 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,440 Speaker 1: is not there to support that. The Phase three trials 479 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,680 Speaker 1: were done with a very deliberate dose and a very 480 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:32,560 Speaker 1: delifferent schedule. That's what the company CEOs have said. This, 481 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,160 Speaker 1: at least a visor ceo. This is what Dr Fauci 482 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 1: has said. We know what works, and anytime you monkey 483 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,679 Speaker 1: with either dose or schedule, you're introducing an enormous amount 484 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,119 Speaker 1: of risk to give vaccine that won't work as well. 485 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:46,480 Speaker 1: So all you'll do by that is take a crummy 486 00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:50,800 Speaker 1: vaccination infrastructure and instead of giving delivering a good vaccine 487 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 1: and reliable vaccine, you'll introduce one that is less than optimal. 488 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:56,879 Speaker 1: It makes no sense. So we knew that the m 489 00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,400 Speaker 1: R and A technology is as still image or it's 490 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:02,640 Speaker 1: not really robust enough to do the whole job. That's 491 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:04,760 Speaker 1: why the whole plan for Operation Warp Speed was to 492 00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 1: bring in the Adamo virus vaccines or or their particle vaccines. 493 00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:11,639 Speaker 1: Are are vaccine and that's what we need to focus on, 494 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:14,680 Speaker 1: getting an additional vaccines, not turning a good vaccine into 495 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:16,879 Speaker 1: a mediocre one. Dr. Hote is just to put a 496 00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,719 Speaker 1: bow on everything that you said that is so profound. 497 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:23,040 Speaker 1: How much of the slowdown and distribution of vaccines is 498 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:25,520 Speaker 1: due to a lack of a federal plan and how 499 00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,960 Speaker 1: much is due to a supply issue of the vaccines 500 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:32,119 Speaker 1: and how quickly we can get them online. Well, clearly 501 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,360 Speaker 1: there's no federal plan and you're never going to get 502 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,400 Speaker 1: there unless you have that roadmap, unless you have an 503 00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 1: over our arching infrastructure. So we have to fix the infrastructure. 504 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:44,200 Speaker 1: That's absolutely paramount. There are going to be supply chain issues. Look, 505 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,280 Speaker 1: they're gonna be lots of bumps in this road. We 506 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:49,960 Speaker 1: also have to have a communication strategy. But right now, 507 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:52,919 Speaker 1: to me, it's less about the dosing and the supply 508 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 1: chain than it is not having the infrastructure to vaccinate 509 00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 1: lots of people. Feuterre Hotel's amount of time, But I've 510 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:00,760 Speaker 1: got to ask about the shock of lining them up 511 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:03,200 Speaker 1: at Yankee Stadium. You want us to get in line 512 00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:06,360 Speaker 1: at Yankee Stadium will affects that at the state level 513 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 1: of the city level, or is that at the federal level, 514 00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:11,359 Speaker 1: And you have to do it safely, and you have 515 00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 1: to have medical personnel there in case there's a severe 516 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,880 Speaker 1: allergic reaction. It's gonna be It's doable, but it's complicated, 517 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:20,520 Speaker 1: and uh, right now, I don't know who. I don't 518 00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 1: know where the leadership comes in. Clearly we're gonna need 519 00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,080 Speaker 1: federal support. They're not the dollars there, I don't think 520 00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:29,520 Speaker 1: at the local and state level to make that happen. 521 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,639 Speaker 1: So there's got to be an appropriation from Congress to 522 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,399 Speaker 1: help with that, and a lot of the logistics are 523 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,240 Speaker 1: probably going to have to come from the state. Maybe 524 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 1: bringing the National Guard would be helpful, but we're going 525 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 1: to have to provide some uh, you know, reinforce homeland 526 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,879 Speaker 1: security a little bit. Make people feel comfortable knowing that 527 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 1: they're taking care of you know, people are frantic now 528 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,159 Speaker 1: calling pharmacies and doctors saying how do I get my 529 00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,760 Speaker 1: mom and dad vaccinated and my brother and sister and 530 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:58,200 Speaker 1: the line's busy or it's it's really it's beyond freshmanting. 531 00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,560 Speaker 1: I gotta leave it there. Dr hote Us, thank you 532 00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 1: for showing us your vaccination. We greatly appreciate it. With 533 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:10,359 Speaker 1: Baylor College of Medicine, this is a joy. Tina Forda 534 00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:14,080 Speaker 1: is one of the clearest thinkers we have on synthesizing 535 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,040 Speaker 1: the moment, and I love her word here. I never 536 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:20,720 Speaker 1: can pronounce it correctly, but I'll go there. Fibrial f 537 00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,680 Speaker 1: E b R I L E. It's almost a medical 538 00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:27,720 Speaker 1: concoction around the pandemic and those horrific fevers people get 539 00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:31,000 Speaker 1: with the pandemic, and yet it's our political fever of 540 00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:34,120 Speaker 1: the moment. In Tina, within your research, note what I 541 00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:37,680 Speaker 1: love that you do as you focus on the Democratic 542 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:42,600 Speaker 1: Party experiment, where is the middle ground of the Democratic Party? 543 00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:46,040 Speaker 1: As we staggered these two votes in Georgia. Well, if 544 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:50,240 Speaker 1: we're talking about the policy agenda, I mean, I actually 545 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,720 Speaker 1: think even if Democrats pull off a miracle um in 546 00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:57,280 Speaker 1: the Georgia Senate race today, UM Joe Biden is going 547 00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 1: to be a weaker president than certainly would like to be, 548 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,560 Speaker 1: and that his numbers suggest when it comes to the agenda, 549 00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:07,200 Speaker 1: this might be a relief for investors in terms of 550 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:12,040 Speaker 1: you know, um kind of raising taxes or more progressive 551 00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:15,800 Speaker 1: elements of the agenda, because even if they have that 552 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:19,000 Speaker 1: tiny Senate majority, um, it's not going to be of 553 00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:23,360 Speaker 1: the magnitude needed to do the more dramatic stuff. If 554 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:27,000 Speaker 1: it is a more conservative America over the last thirty 555 00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:31,919 Speaker 1: forty fifty years, is the Democratic Party adjusted to it 556 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:36,240 Speaker 1: so they can commit policy. These are very highly charged 557 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 1: terms in in the US context. Remember, you know, I'm 558 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,360 Speaker 1: an American has been living in Europe for twenty years, 559 00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,080 Speaker 1: which I realized it makes me suspicious in some way. 560 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:47,680 Speaker 1: I think the kinds of policies that are on the 561 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 1: so called more progressive agenda, like healthcare, like um, you know, 562 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:57,280 Speaker 1: family leave and a stronger social contract would help the US. 563 00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:01,080 Speaker 1: For example, whether the pandemic and what we're seeing played 564 00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:04,440 Speaker 1: out in Georgia in a microcosm, is a lot of 565 00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:07,360 Speaker 1: why we're having such a difficult time as a nation 566 00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:11,680 Speaker 1: fighting this pandemic. It's low trust, its lack of legitimacy, 567 00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 1: it's polarization over the kinds of policies that, frankly, Tom 568 00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:20,120 Speaker 1: are are not in dispute in the rest of the world. Tina, 569 00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:24,120 Speaker 1: how much does the certification of the election outcome of 570 00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:28,320 Speaker 1: the electoral College vote tomorrow in Washington, d C. And 571 00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:32,240 Speaker 1: some of the questions circulating around that, how much does 572 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:36,480 Speaker 1: the question mark around that challenge the democratic nature of 573 00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:39,360 Speaker 1: this country in a way that we really haven't seen before. 574 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:42,800 Speaker 1: I think the answer is twofold. A lot of my 575 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,800 Speaker 1: investor clients are are are asking me this question. You know, 576 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,000 Speaker 1: how important is it? Well, from the point of view 577 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:54,320 Speaker 1: of the erosion of democratic norms, it's really meaningful and um, However, 578 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:57,400 Speaker 1: it won't overturn the final result. What it adds to 579 00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:03,120 Speaker 1: is the fact that forty percent of Republicans believe that 580 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:07,479 Speaker 1: Biden was not legitimately elected, even though every one of 581 00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:12,240 Speaker 1: the Trump campaign's fifty legal challenges was overturned. This means 582 00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:16,760 Speaker 1: that misinformation and disinformation works, um, and it does have 583 00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:19,520 Speaker 1: have an impact on policy. Can you give us a 584 00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 1: sense of how this could change something specific about policy 585 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:27,360 Speaker 1: going forward, especially given the fact that social media intervention 586 00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:31,280 Speaker 1: probably is happing to go away anytime soon. Uh No, 587 00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 1: it's not so. What it means, for example, is that 588 00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:38,640 Speaker 1: vaccine rollout efforts are are clouded and compromised by this 589 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,920 Speaker 1: sense that they might be part of a liberal agenda, 590 00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:46,400 Speaker 1: a liberal progressive agenda, right, that people don't believe that 591 00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:50,160 Speaker 1: the state has the authority to do this, and we saw, 592 00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 1: you know, so what's the impact on the SMP. It's indirect, 593 00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:59,000 Speaker 1: but we saw that yesterday UM equities softened on on 594 00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,880 Speaker 1: the back of I rocketing numbers, and so there is 595 00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 1: an interplay with a concrete impact on markets. Tina, I've 596 00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,040 Speaker 1: got to rip up the script and it has to 597 00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:12,960 Speaker 1: be about Mr mccrawl. I am absolutely fascinated by France 598 00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,480 Speaker 1: with vaccines. If I think five hundred or six hundred vaccines, 599 00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:19,960 Speaker 1: I can't remember the details, but to be Mr McCary 600 00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,680 Speaker 1: is an incredibly key player of a tumultuous two thousand 601 00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:27,680 Speaker 1: twenty one. Does he have a strategy, Well, he absolutely 602 00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,360 Speaker 1: does have a strategy. At the moment, he's trying to 603 00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:34,520 Speaker 1: balance his own kind of lunatic fringe UM the National 604 00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:38,400 Speaker 1: Front having been at a minor level anti vax for 605 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,520 Speaker 1: for a long time, and the French public is also 606 00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:46,760 Speaker 1: strikingly one of the most of of developed world countries 607 00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:52,080 Speaker 1: populations that are most vaccine hesitants. Now, ultimately, I suspect 608 00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,920 Speaker 1: you'll see it in higher numbers also in the US. 609 00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:58,800 Speaker 1: But he's got big problems. He also has uh some 610 00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:03,000 Speaker 1: regional elections this year to to contend with, and we're 611 00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:06,840 Speaker 1: about to start the European election cycle. It's Germany this year, 612 00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:10,760 Speaker 1: France not till till after that. But he's fighting for 613 00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:14,960 Speaker 1: his political life, and he's borrowing a few pages out 614 00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,720 Speaker 1: of the far right hand book. I mean, a bit 615 00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 1: a bit distant for America, but just absolutely extraordinary. And 616 00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:24,400 Speaker 1: I've heard this consistently, the fight for political life. Tina Fordham, 617 00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:27,880 Speaker 1: thank you so much. Avaner's had a global political strategy. 618 00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:35,479 Speaker 1: We continue, of course, with Eurasia's top risks to one 619 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:38,000 Speaker 1: and Thomas story that of course has captured both of 620 00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,040 Speaker 1: our imaginations. The New York Stock Exchange reversing plans to 621 00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:44,640 Speaker 1: delist three of the largest state owned Chinese telecom companies. 622 00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:48,560 Speaker 1: That's backtracking on the decision just four days after it's unveiling. 623 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:52,200 Speaker 1: The measure also threatens to tescalate tensions between Washington and Beijing, 624 00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:56,880 Speaker 1: falling combiance with the Trump administration executive order. The reasons 625 00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,880 Speaker 1: for this reversal at the moment remain unclearable. Joining his 626 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,760 Speaker 1: as Michael Herson. He's your AGA Group practice head for 627 00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:06,240 Speaker 1: China and Northeast Asia. Michael, thank you for joining us. 628 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,720 Speaker 1: And before we get to the top risks and how 629 00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,800 Speaker 1: that plays out with the U S and China, what's 630 00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:16,040 Speaker 1: exactly happening in the New York Stock Exchange? Well, I 631 00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:19,400 Speaker 1: don't know the full story behind the scenes, but I 632 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:23,160 Speaker 1: think frankly, what we're seeing here is the inter agency 633 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:26,440 Speaker 1: turf fight within the Trump administration as to how this 634 00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:31,200 Speaker 1: executive order is going to be implemented, and the guidance 635 00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:33,320 Speaker 1: has been unclear, and so what we saw from the 636 00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:37,360 Speaker 1: New York Stock Exchanges first a assumption that this is 637 00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:39,400 Speaker 1: going to be sweeping and that they would be forced 638 00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:43,320 Speaker 1: to delist these companies, and then with further guidance from Treasury, 639 00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:45,560 Speaker 1: which has been somewhat on the back foot in this 640 00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:49,000 Speaker 1: whole process, they have drawn the conclusion that, in fact, no, 641 00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:51,440 Speaker 1: they don't have to go that far. So I think 642 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,640 Speaker 1: that's what we're seeing is this slow guidance coming out 643 00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:58,000 Speaker 1: as first the hardliners in the administration had pushed this move, 644 00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:00,560 Speaker 1: and now Treasury has had the opportunity need to try 645 00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:04,920 Speaker 1: to limit the full extent of market disruption. What does 646 00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:08,759 Speaker 1: that mean, Michael, For how the Biden administration will will 647 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:12,880 Speaker 1: deal with China, well, we'll have to see how the 648 00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:16,239 Speaker 1: Biden team works with measures like this. I don't think 649 00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:20,200 Speaker 1: that they're going to be particular fans of this executive order, 650 00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:23,759 Speaker 1: partly because of how messy the processes, where you've got 651 00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:28,160 Speaker 1: the Department of Defense deciding which companies should be banned 652 00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:32,600 Speaker 1: from essentially US financial markets, rather than the Treasury Department. 653 00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:35,399 Speaker 1: But I don't think that this particular issue is going 654 00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:38,240 Speaker 1: to be important enough for them to reverse it quickly. 655 00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:41,480 Speaker 1: So I think we'll see this basically held in, you know, 656 00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:44,080 Speaker 1: kind of in status quo, at least for the first 657 00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:47,000 Speaker 1: several months of the Biden administration, while they wrap it 658 00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:52,600 Speaker 1: into broader um, you know, broader review China strategy. Michael 659 00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:54,760 Speaker 1: thom Keaton, New York, Good morning. I read an entirety 660 00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:57,160 Speaker 1: the November twelfth executive Order by the President of the 661 00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,839 Speaker 1: United States this morning. I read the three documents by 662 00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:03,200 Speaker 1: the Treasury Department as well. This is the most stunning 663 00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,759 Speaker 1: thing I've seen in my present view of investment or 664 00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:08,960 Speaker 1: my reading of the history of the New York Stock 665 00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:12,799 Speaker 1: Exchange going back at least to three if not two 666 00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 1: twenty eight years is let's cut to the chase. The 667 00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,680 Speaker 1: President did an executive order that looks like it was written, 668 00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:23,360 Speaker 1: say by Navarro or someone else. I don't want to 669 00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:27,399 Speaker 1: speculate on that, and they got crushed last night by 670 00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:33,719 Speaker 1: Secretary Minution. Is that accurate? I think that's fairly accurate. Tom. 671 00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,920 Speaker 1: This executive order was rushed out. It's the type of 672 00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,560 Speaker 1: thing that usually would have been from the get go. Yeah. 673 00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:41,520 Speaker 1: But Michael, look, I don't mean to interrupt it. Come on, 674 00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:46,040 Speaker 1: it's thirty paragraphs. It was not rushed out. It was 675 00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:51,320 Speaker 1: it was chiseled out by President Trump and his anti 676 00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:55,520 Speaker 1: China advisors. That's a fact everybody can agree on. Is 677 00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:59,440 Speaker 1: this gonna end with President Biden? Or do we consider 678 00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:06,879 Speaker 1: do we continue these ad hoc procedures with President Biden? Oh? No, Tom, 679 00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,280 Speaker 1: I mean it's going to be completely different under Biden. 680 00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,839 Speaker 1: You this is the whole process of this executive order 681 00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:17,000 Speaker 1: is unprecedented. Thank you. You know clearly this in any 682 00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:20,759 Speaker 1: normal I'd say, in any typical administration, this would have 683 00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:24,080 Speaker 1: come out with full guidance from Treasury. They were passive 684 00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:27,360 Speaker 1: in this process. And as you said, the hardliners in 685 00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:30,480 Speaker 1: the administration pushed this out with huge questions as to 686 00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:34,960 Speaker 1: how this, this novel executive order should be interpreted. And 687 00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:37,600 Speaker 1: so what we've seen more recently is a bit of 688 00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,240 Speaker 1: a return to normalcy in the sense that the agency 689 00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:43,319 Speaker 1: that's actually executing this Treasury has had to worry about 690 00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:46,640 Speaker 1: market disruption and fill in the details to Biden administration 691 00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,000 Speaker 1: will be much more predictable and conventional in this. So 692 00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:52,000 Speaker 1: your your raisier group top risks. Then how would you 693 00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:55,680 Speaker 1: suspect that China will respond to this? The language speaks 694 00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,160 Speaker 1: of the Communist party they've got I don't have a 695 00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:00,920 Speaker 1: language in front of me, folks, but it's basedly military 696 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,840 Speaker 1: industrial complex. It reads like a Dick tod out of 697 00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:08,280 Speaker 1: the nineteen fifties, the November twelfth Executive Order. How would 698 00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:12,239 Speaker 1: you expect Beijing to respond to such language? Do they 699 00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:16,320 Speaker 1: just wait for Biden? Yes, they're going to wait for Biden, 700 00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:19,759 Speaker 1: and frankly, you know they can stomach. I think a 701 00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:23,880 Speaker 1: lot of these ideological attacks so long as the practical 702 00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:27,000 Speaker 1: impact for China is limited, And let's be honest, this 703 00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:31,680 Speaker 1: executive order is not really going to deter Chinese military 704 00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:34,960 Speaker 1: linked companies from obtaining financing They've got plenty of financing 705 00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:39,040 Speaker 1: available from China's state owned banking system and from other 706 00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:42,239 Speaker 1: sources of finance. So with symbolic moves like this, you know, 707 00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:45,640 Speaker 1: Beijing is willing to stomach some of this, especially, as 708 00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:47,600 Speaker 1: you said, as they wait for Biden to come in 709 00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:50,960 Speaker 1: and try to try to re establish some kind of 710 00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:55,840 Speaker 1: stability for the relationship. Michael, what will stability look like? 711 00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:58,040 Speaker 1: And it was actually a surprise to see a lot 712 00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:00,400 Speaker 1: of these, you know, Chinese companies on the U S 713 00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:03,160 Speaker 1: stock exchanges in the first place. Is it going to 714 00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,319 Speaker 1: be a deterents you know, will Chinese companies just be 715 00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:10,440 Speaker 1: less present in the US de facto, I think that 716 00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:12,799 Speaker 1: you know, the writing to some extent is on the 717 00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:15,479 Speaker 1: wall here. Biden is not necessarily I mean, we don't 718 00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:19,360 Speaker 1: think he's going to take as directly a confrontational approach 719 00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:21,680 Speaker 1: with the U S and China excuse me, towards China. 720 00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,120 Speaker 1: But the reason we included this as a top risk 721 00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:28,240 Speaker 1: is that the broader underlying issues driving US China tensions 722 00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:32,920 Speaker 1: are still there. This is a very competitive relationship, it's 723 00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:37,239 Speaker 1: got an increasingly ideological tinge, and none of this is 724 00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:41,360 Speaker 1: going to change. So I think we will see growing tensions, 725 00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:44,920 Speaker 1: increase tensions spilling into financial markets, but it's not going 726 00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:48,200 Speaker 1: to be because the Biden administration is throwing out executive orders. 727 00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:52,840 Speaker 1: It will be more concerns about governance issues, about investors 728 00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:57,759 Speaker 1: putting pressure on companies over for example, treatment of the weakers. 729 00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:01,000 Speaker 1: It's going to be those kinds of I think deeper 730 00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:05,120 Speaker 1: um concerns than it's going to be um, you know, 731 00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:08,000 Speaker 1: kind of bomb throwing so to speak, coming from Biden directly. 732 00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:11,280 Speaker 1: Michael Hurston, thank you so much, A hugely valuable brief 733 00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:15,360 Speaker 1: on news made overnight. Is a Treasury Department really walks 734 00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:19,080 Speaker 1: back that executive order of November twelve, Mr Hurston, of course, 735 00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:21,360 Speaker 1: with you raise your group. Thanks for listening to the 736 00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:27,879 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 737 00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:32,480 Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at 738 00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:36,799 Speaker 1: Tom Keene before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 739 00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:38,320 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio