1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:10,719 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. They say is the 2 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:14,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify 3 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:18,280 Speaker 1: or wherever you listen. It's Wednesday, the eighteenth of December 4 00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:22,160 Speaker 1: in London. I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. Nissan shares 5 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 1: skyrocket on reports that Honda's interested in a merger. Bloomberg 6 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: finds UK consumers could be left paying the price for 7 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 1: the government's accelerated drive towards clean power. Plus traders await 8 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 1: the final Federal Reserve decision of twenty twenty four as 9 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 1: bond traders bet on deeper rate cuts next year. Let's 10 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,360 Speaker 1: start with a roundup of our top stories. Honda and 11 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 1: Nissan are exploring a merger which could consolidate Japan's auto 12 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: sector at a time of major upheaval globally, and executive 13 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 1: vice president at Honda confirmed reports the carmakers considering options 14 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 1: including a capital tie up or merger. James Hang, the 15 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 1: head of Asian Autos at Macquarie Capital, explains why. 16 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:07,040 Speaker 2: For Honda's perspective, the biggest benefit is actually the scale. 17 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 2: There has been clear change on the company's the management 18 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 2: on focus on the scale and the operation. I guess 19 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 2: that's what Honda is expecting to gain from this partnership. 20 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 1: To Hun's point, a merger would create a giant better 21 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 1: able to compete against larger global rivals like Tesla and BYD. 22 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 1: Shares in Nissan serged as much as twenty four percent 23 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 1: on the news, their biggest intra day jump on record. 24 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 1: Hondas stock fell by as much as three point four percent. 25 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:38,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg has also learned that the iPhone builder Han High 26 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 1: has approached Nissan about taking a controlling stake in the carmaker. 27 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 1: The UK government's push to decarbonize its power grid faster 28 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 1: risks locking in higher costs for consumers. That's according to 29 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 1: research from three energy analytics firms, which looked at moving 30 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 1: the target forward from twenty thirty from twenty thirty five. 31 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 1: Aurora Energy Research says the earlier deadline would cost eleven 32 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 1: billion pounds more because of higher raw material and borrowing costs. 33 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: Energy Secretary At Miliband was asked about his claim the 34 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,919 Speaker 1: green push will bring household bills down by three hundred 35 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: pounds a year. 36 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 3: The truth is there is only one future for Britain 37 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 3: that reduces bills for good, and that is a clean 38 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:21,920 Speaker 3: power mission and the truth is we can carry on 39 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:24,800 Speaker 3: remaining vulnerable. We can carry on with fossil fuels, and 40 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 3: all we know is we're in the grip of petro 41 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,079 Speaker 3: states and dictators. That government is not willing to leave 42 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:30,799 Speaker 3: us exposed. 43 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 1: But it's by Miliband's optimism. Experts at AURORASO prices are 44 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 1: likely to say consistently higher than their twenty nineteen levels. 45 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 1: UK government borrowing costs rose to their highest level in 46 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 1: decades relatives to germanys in trading yesterday. That's as traders 47 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 1: grow increasingly skeptical over how much more easing the Bank 48 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 1: of England will manage to deliver next year. Pojacomras, senior 49 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:56,519 Speaker 1: UK and European rates strategist at Toronto Dominion Bank, says 50 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 1: the shift was driven by yesterday's hotter than expected wage data. 51 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 4: Shoos that boees grappling with is very different. 52 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 5: From other central banks. 53 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 4: To your open note, we do think that Vega wage market, 54 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 4: labor market is weakening, and that was visible in the 55 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 4: employment index. I think markets are very scared about the 56 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 4: wage data, and also we have the CPI and service 57 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:18,519 Speaker 4: inslation as well, So yes, that is something I would 58 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:20,959 Speaker 4: I was not looking forward for this number. 59 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 1: Who's a camera from TD Bank there speaking to Bloomberg. 60 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 1: The spread between UK and German ten year bondjials closed 61 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 1: at two hundred and twenty nine basis points, the most 62 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 1: since nineteen ninety. Money markets are now fully pricing in 63 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 1: two quarter point cuts from the Bank of England and 64 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, and attribute to roughly twenty percent chance 65 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 1: of a third. That's down from ninety percent before the 66 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 1: wage data. Federal Reserve officials are likely to lower borrowing 67 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 1: costs for a third straight meeting today, while signaling fewer 68 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 1: interest rate cuts next year. The expectations come after recent 69 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 1: data showed inflation is coming down more slowly than officials 70 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 1: anticipated and the labor market is not weakening as much 71 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 1: as had been feared. Bank of America's CEO Brian moynihan says, 72 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 1: there has been a significant economic shift that. 73 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 6: We've moved up from positive but low to now higher 74 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 6: than trend, higher than average, and so that means economies 75 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 6: not having a balance anything. It's just going on as 76 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 6: normal growth trend with just good news. I think all 77 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 6: the policies are yet to come in. There's an enthusiasm 78 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:20,599 Speaker 6: and discussion, but everything's still out there until the policy 79 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,840 Speaker 6: get an acted. Our team, even given their knowledge of 80 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 6: the Trump present. Like Trump's policies, they are still predicting 81 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 6: next year's a two and a half percent GDP growth. 82 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 6: They predict a FED cuts rates a few times. 83 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 1: Bank of America is Brian moynihan speaking to Bloomberg's Wall 84 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 1: Street Week now. The revised outlook could prompt officials to 85 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: tweak the language in their post meeting policy statement later 86 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 1: and raise the projected path of borrowing costs with a 87 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 1: full coverage of the Fed's decision and updated quarterly forecasts, 88 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:51,159 Speaker 1: as well as charge your own piles post meeting press 89 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 1: conference later today. Brazil's central Bank has sold over three 90 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 1: billion dollars in local markets to stem a collapse and 91 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 1: its currency. The country's royal tender has fallen by over 92 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 1: twenty percent this year to a record low, and its 93 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:09,160 Speaker 1: weakness is spreading to other assets, including government dollar bonds. 94 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,600 Speaker 1: Brazil Center Bank has raised interest rates to combat inflation, 95 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 1: but analysts say fiscal commitment is needed to prevent market instability. 96 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 1: That's his investor has grown increasingly skeptical of the government's 97 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 1: ability to address the country's debt trajectory, and Luegi Mangioni 98 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:27,359 Speaker 1: was indicted in New York and a first degree murder 99 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: charge for the fatal shooting of United Health executive Brian Thompson. 100 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 1: Prosecutors said the killing amounted to an act of terrorism. 101 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 6: This was a frightening, well planned, targeted murder that was 102 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 6: intended to cause shock and attention and intimidation. 103 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:48,039 Speaker 1: That's Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg there is leading the 104 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 1: case for the prosecution. Officials have warned against lionizing the 105 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 1: suspected killer, who at the time of his arrest was 106 00:05:55,240 --> 00:06:00,480 Speaker 1: carrying a manifesto to crying the healthcare industry. Those are 107 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 1: our top stories on the markets. We have saw stocks 108 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:06,159 Speaker 1: declining into Tuesday's clothes on Wall Street, the SMP five 109 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 1: hundred finishing down four tenths of one percent. Dollar and 110 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 1: treasuries were a little changed after the latest economic data 111 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:15,040 Speaker 1: from the US painted a mixed picture. Retail sales increased 112 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 1: at a firm place, while industrial production unexpectedly declined. Oil 113 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 1: prices fell by one percent yesterday for Brent crude, and 114 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,480 Speaker 1: trading today it's holding just over seventy three dollars a barrel. 115 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 5: The two year guildts finished ten. 116 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 1: Basis points higher, just shy of that after that hot 117 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 1: wage inflation data and the market pricing and fewer Bank 118 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:35,839 Speaker 1: of England cuts for next year with a BOE decision 119 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:38,719 Speaker 1: on Thursday as well. In Asia today we're looking at 120 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:41,719 Speaker 1: a mixed picture. The Mscish Pacific indexes hire three tenths 121 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,280 Speaker 1: of one percent, but the NIKEAY and Tokyo down four 122 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: tenths as well. As we've been monitoring that m and 123 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:50,679 Speaker 1: a news coming out of the carmaker industry in Japan 124 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 1: looking ahead to later today in the Fed decision, ten 125 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 1: yere treasury yields are down a basis point at four 126 00:06:57,480 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: point three to nine percent of the Member dollar Spot index 127 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,159 Speaker 1: is flat. In a moment, we'll bring you more on 128 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: that flurry of merger talk in the Japanese car industry, 129 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 1: plus our story about the cost of clean power in 130 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 1: the UK. But another story that I've been reading this morning, 131 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 1: our opinion columnist Andrea Felstad has spotted a trend in 132 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: this year's Christmas ads. She says they've all gone back 133 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: to basics. Familiar faces, including John French or back John 134 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 1: Lewis is making us cry again with their effort, But 135 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 1: Andrea writes that perhaps this is actually a reflection of 136 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 1: the tougher situation that many retailers are facing for this 137 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 1: festive season, warnings about the huge costs of employer's national 138 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 1: insurance hike that was announced in the budget and what 139 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: that's going to mean for employers like retailers. She notes 140 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: that the warnings of the painful budget we're hitting consumer 141 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 1: confidence back in September and October, but the worries are 142 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 1: now focused on the jobs market whether employers might have 143 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 1: to make cuts or scale. 144 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 5: Back hiring next year. 145 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 1: So bad news for retailers who are hoping that consumers 146 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: would splash out before Christmas on big ticket items. But 147 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: she says there is an upside and be for supermarkets 148 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 1: like Marks and Spencer's, the upmarket end or the premium 149 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 1: ranges put out by the likes of Tescos and Sainsbury's, 150 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 1: as people plan to spend more on treats to have 151 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 1: at home instead. By the way, if we do look 152 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 1: at this piece, it's a Bloomberg dot com forard Slash Opinion, 153 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 1: Please do take a moment to note the brilliant titles 154 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 1: of the graphs which include do they know It's Christmas? 155 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 1: The shares in Nissan have soared in Tokyo on the 156 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:26,200 Speaker 1: news that Honda's exploring a merger. A tie up could 157 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: create a rival to Toyota in Japan as the motor 158 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 1: industry is facing massive challenges worldwide, and we've had news 159 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:34,880 Speaker 1: that han Hai, the makro of iPhones in Taiwan, is 160 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 1: also interested in a stake in Nissan as well. Let's 161 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 1: go to Tokyo for more. Bloomberg's Nicholas Takahashi joins us 162 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 1: for the latest Nicholas, good morning. What is being discussed 163 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:49,080 Speaker 1: and what do we know about these reports? First of all, 164 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: about Honda and Nissan. 165 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 7: Sure, thanks for having me so. It's an interesting situation 166 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 7: that began to unfold over Japan's night last night. What 167 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:01,680 Speaker 7: we know is is that Honda is in talks with 168 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 7: Nissan to discuss the possibility of a merger. Whether that's 169 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:08,560 Speaker 7: a capital tie up or even the formation of a 170 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 7: holding company is all up in the air at this moment, 171 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 7: but we do know that Honda and Nissan are speaking 172 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 7: about it and taking it seriously as a future deal. 173 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:22,720 Speaker 7: The involvement of Mitsubishi is also a possibility. And so 174 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 7: when we step back a little bit, what we're talking 175 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 7: about is a three way alliance between Honda and Nissan 176 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:32,559 Speaker 7: and potentially Mitsubishi, and this would essentially pit it against 177 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 7: Toyota and its alliance with three other major Japanese car makers, Masta, 178 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 7: subru and Suzuki, and that has a whole host of 179 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:45,079 Speaker 7: interesting implications, not just domestically, but in terms of their 180 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 7: competitive edge abroad as well in the US and China. 181 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 1: So, I mean, yeah, this could be a really big 182 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 1: move in the Japanese sector, but as you say, an 183 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 1: impact worldwide too. 184 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 5: The other report that we've had today. 185 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 1: I'm confirmed by by Bloomberg, has been this idea that Hanhai, 186 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:06,199 Speaker 1: known for building iPhones, is also interested in Nissan. 187 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 7: Yeah, that's sort of the X factor. It seems like 188 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 7: in this scenario, Hanhai, commonly known as Fox Khan, builds iPhones, 189 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 7: and they've always been interested in shifting to ev production, 190 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 7: or not shifting, but focusing as well on the production 191 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:28,960 Speaker 7: of election cars. So in this scenario, we've we've confirmed 192 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:32,440 Speaker 7: that that Fox Khan approached Nissan for the possibility of 193 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 7: a buyout. That does complicate the situation with Honda. Uh 194 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 7: there's been a push in in Japan by the government 195 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:45,199 Speaker 7: to try to prioritize the domestic ownership of big companies 196 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 7: like this, So I think Hanhai is in an uphill battle. 197 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 7: But how that plays out and how that influences the 198 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:56,560 Speaker 7: Honda Nissan potential merger, you know, time will tell. 199 00:10:57,160 --> 00:11:00,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's certainly very interesting story to keep watching. What 200 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 1: does this mean for the big rival to Nissan and 201 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: to Honda, Toyota of course that the giant in the 202 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 1: Japanese sector, They're going to be watching these talks with 203 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 1: great interest. 204 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 7: Yeah, I imagine, and I think that's the big question 205 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 7: for now, And maybe it's too pronged. One question, what 206 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 7: does Nissan gain from this and what does Honda? And 207 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 7: on the other hand, does this mean, you know, if 208 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 7: they do form an alliance that they can compete with 209 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:31,720 Speaker 7: Toyota and friends. Nissan, as some folks will already know, 210 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:35,200 Speaker 7: is in the throes of a financial crisis. Since they 211 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:39,840 Speaker 7: announced quarterly profit tanking last month, They've had two slash 212 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 7: thousands of jobs, cut production output, and lower their fiscal 213 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 7: annual fiscal profit outlook by seventy percent. Honda, on the 214 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,320 Speaker 7: other hand, has been looking at scale production in the 215 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 7: US for some time now, So this partnership has been 216 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 7: talked about for years and it's finally coming to a point. 217 00:11:56,720 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 7: On the other hand, Toyota is the biggest carmaker in 218 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:01,440 Speaker 7: the world, like you said, so you know, whether this 219 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:05,559 Speaker 7: is about competition between those two camps and the Japanese 220 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:08,240 Speaker 7: car industry gets split down the middle, or it's more 221 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 7: about how they fight in the US or how they 222 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 7: clash in the US when it comes to hybrid cars, 223 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 7: which I've seen a lot of popularity since eb growth 224 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 7: took a took a downturn over the last year or two. 225 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:23,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, that's some of the big issues that 226 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:26,720 Speaker 1: this industry is facing globally as well. I mean, you know, 227 00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 1: when we think about Nissan in the UK of course 228 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 1: major manufacturing plant in Sunderland here as well. What would 229 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 1: a dealer consolidation mean for tackling some of the big 230 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 1: global issues that the industry is facing, like the transition 231 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 1: to cleaner vehicles. 232 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 7: Sure, yeah, that's a that's a great question. Even in 233 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:49,480 Speaker 7: the last let's say half year or year, so the 234 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:55,200 Speaker 7: global automotive industry has just seen seismic shifts, to say 235 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 7: nothing of the possible tariffs headed for North America and 236 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:04,040 Speaker 7: the the same tariffs that Chinese views are facing. So 237 00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 7: we're seeing this block economy form, especially in the automotive industry, 238 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 7: and how a potential Honda Nissan alliance could help them 239 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:16,199 Speaker 7: overcome some of those issues, I think is a big question. 240 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 7: In the year, Honda executives have voiced deep concerns about 241 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:27,319 Speaker 7: possible tariffs on imports across the Mexican border. Import tariffs 242 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 7: from Canada and from China are always going to be 243 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:34,200 Speaker 7: an issue for big car makers that import heavily and 244 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 7: rely on production across borders. 245 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly a very interesting time for the sector too. Nick, 246 00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 1: thanks so much for bringing us up to date. 247 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 2: There. 248 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 1: That's MEMBERGS Nicklaus Takahashi joining us from Tokyo on the 249 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 1: latest news in the auto sector. There Now, later today 250 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 1: we'll get the Federal Reserves final interest right decision of 251 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 1: the air. Bloomberg Economics expects the Fed to cut rights 252 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,199 Speaker 1: by twenty five basis points, and markets are focused on 253 00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 1: the question of what happens after that. Joining us now 254 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 1: for more our market supporter of Valerie title Valari. First 255 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:05,839 Speaker 1: of all, are we fully locked in on twenty five 256 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 1: basis points. Is there any room for doubt there? 257 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:11,360 Speaker 8: Look that the Fed really does meet the market expectations, 258 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 8: and we are fully pricing at twenty five basis point 259 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:16,839 Speaker 8: rate reduction today, So I would say that is locked 260 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 8: in from the market's perspective. What is not locked in 261 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 8: is their guidance for next year. They release their projections 262 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 8: alongside their rate decision tonight at seven PM, and within 263 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 8: those projections is the dot for every FEDS member's year 264 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:35,800 Speaker 8: and twenty twenty five forecast, and that is going to 265 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 8: tell us just how many rate reductions next year the 266 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:40,720 Speaker 8: Federal Reserve on average is seeing. 267 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 9: Now. 268 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 8: Last time they released these projections, they penciled in four 269 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 8: rate reductions. The market currently believes that it's going to 270 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 8: be reduced to either three or two. If we do 271 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 8: get a signal from them that they only are penciling 272 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 8: in two rate reductions next year, that would be seen 273 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 8: as a hawkis shurprize. 274 00:14:58,160 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 5: We would see a resurgence in the. 275 00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 8: Doll or perhaps breaking those yearly highs that it's very 276 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 8: close to hovering about. That would be a negative for 277 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 8: the equity market. That hawkish surprise of only penciling in 278 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 8: two cuts next year, we will get the press conference 279 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 8: thirty minutes later, where a lot of the focus is 280 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 8: going to be on his tone, It will Powell, just 281 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:20,000 Speaker 8: how cautious will Powell sound? There are a lot of 282 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 8: risks looming overhead, one of the major ones being the 283 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 8: change of government in the US on January twentieth, where 284 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 8: we do get a new batch of economic policies, you know, 285 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:35,120 Speaker 8: Tariff's deregulation. All of this playing into the mix of 286 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 8: how the Federal Reserve sees the US economy growing next year, 287 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 8: and perhaps whether that complicates his fight on inflation. 288 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:43,000 Speaker 5: Should we actually expect. 289 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 1: To hear joam Pell talking about any of that though, 290 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: I mean we have tried in the past. Our colleagues 291 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: who have been at these press conferences have asked many 292 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 1: questions about the potential impact, and joam Pell has been 293 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 1: very careful up until this point. What point does he 294 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 1: kind of have to say something. 295 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 8: Yeah, so he'll push back and say, look, we can't 296 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 8: act on policies until we see them enacted. He even 297 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 8: talked about the fact that, yes, there does seem to 298 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 8: be tax of reductions coming under the Trump regime, but 299 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,040 Speaker 8: we might not see that being passed for a year, 300 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:15,080 Speaker 8: and the impact on GDP growth might not be until 301 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 8: twenty twenty six. 302 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 5: He could talk about that, but he's not. 303 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 8: Likely to give any flavor of how that'll affect their 304 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 8: immediate decision making process. He'll say that they'll need to 305 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:29,240 Speaker 8: see these policies passed before they react to them. But 306 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 8: net net, a lot of economists out there do see 307 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 8: some potential upside to US economic growth from these Trump tariffs, 308 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 8: and that might just make Powles just sound a bit. 309 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:41,880 Speaker 5: More cautious about the approach ahead. 310 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 8: He might use the words gradual or the need to 311 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 8: tread carefully as they slow their pace of rate cuts 312 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:53,160 Speaker 8: next year. Now, they're unlikely to give some calendar guidance 313 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 8: on when they. 314 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 5: Would see this first pause. 315 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,600 Speaker 8: But again, that kind of language distressing the need to 316 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 8: go carefully is just a way that the central banks 317 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:04,720 Speaker 8: say that a pause could be on the table in January. 318 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 1: Okay, so that's in terms of the FED decision today. 319 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 1: It just wants to ask you a litle bit. They're 320 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 1: the big story in markets today too, and that's what's 321 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,159 Speaker 1: going on in Brazil's in the rail plunging to a 322 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 1: record low intervention from the central Bank. What is going 323 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 1: on in Brazil. 324 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 8: A few things, one of which being their interest rates 325 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 8: are very high. They're nearly ten percent, and that is 326 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:27,200 Speaker 8: still not enough to calm inflation down. So you're seeing 327 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 8: the central bank having to hike rates and that is 328 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 8: causing a situation for the government because the government has 329 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:36,159 Speaker 8: been spending a lot of money since COVID, their fiscal 330 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:39,080 Speaker 8: deficits have been widening, and the market is starting to 331 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:42,959 Speaker 8: speculate that they that the government could be in a 332 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 8: pickle somewhat of having to reduce spending because you're going to. 333 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 5: Be seeing. 334 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:51,880 Speaker 8: Foreign investment in leaving because they're worried about a slide 335 00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 8: in the FX, and that would cause the government to 336 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 8: really need to maybe do a complete shift on closing 337 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 8: their fiscal deficie it in order to get that kind 338 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 8: of stability from the market in order to rein back 339 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 8: in some of the foreign investments. So keep an eye 340 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 8: on how their currency has been weakening. It hit all 341 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 8: time lows yesterday before they came in and announced not 342 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:16,200 Speaker 8: one but two FX auctions to intervene in the currency 343 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:18,880 Speaker 8: to prevent its slide. So very interesting the development's going 344 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 8: on in Brazil, and in a grand scheme of things, 345 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 8: A FED cutting less next year will only stoke this 346 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 8: problem forward, So hawkersh FED could push maybe another a 347 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:31,920 Speaker 8: little slip up in Brazilian markets today. 348 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:33,360 Speaker 1: Okay, one to keep an eye on as we look 349 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:35,600 Speaker 1: ahead to the Federal reserve decision later as well. Valerie 350 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:37,640 Speaker 1: t I tell our market supporter, thank you very much 351 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:40,640 Speaker 1: for bringing us up to date. Now, UK consumers could 352 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:43,280 Speaker 1: end up paying more for their electricity because of the 353 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 1: government's rushed to meet its target of decarbonizing the power 354 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:50,040 Speaker 1: supply by twenty thirty. That's according to industry experts they've 355 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:53,120 Speaker 1: been speaking to Bloomberg. Our European power renewables reporter Aman 356 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,160 Speaker 1: Farhat is here with me for more. Aiman, first of all, 357 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,160 Speaker 1: remind us what is the government's goal when it comes 358 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,360 Speaker 1: to clean power and what progress has been made done 359 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:00,880 Speaker 1: it so far. 360 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 10: So the government's goal is basically to have ninety five 361 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:05,320 Speaker 10: percent of the power over the power of the UK 362 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 10: coming from clean sources like wind and solar by twenty thirty. 363 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:10,760 Speaker 10: Now that brings forward the previous government's pledge of twenty 364 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 10: thirty five, and the whole idea is that if you 365 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,280 Speaker 10: have clean power wind that's blowing, that means lower bills 366 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:17,400 Speaker 10: for consumers as there is less gas and obviously gas 367 00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 10: have been affected by the war in Russia and so 368 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 10: we're relying less on kind of these bigger geopolitical markets. 369 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 10: So that's kind of the big idea clean power, cheaper bills. 370 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 10: That's what the government has been selling to us. 371 00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 1: What are the industry experts then saying about what this 372 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 1: means for energy casts down the line? 373 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 10: Now, the issue is that twenty thirty is really not 374 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 10: that far away and moving that quickly on some of 375 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:39,400 Speaker 10: these goals, for example tripling you know, offshore wind, that 376 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:41,359 Speaker 10: does mean that we will be building wind farms at 377 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 10: quite uncompetitive rates, you know, and when you build a 378 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,119 Speaker 10: wind farm it does lock in rates for about fifteen years. 379 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:48,160 Speaker 10: And also this whole plan does still rely on about 380 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 10: five percent of your capacity coming from gas, and gas 381 00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:52,920 Speaker 10: is still expensive and running these gas plants for less 382 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:55,600 Speaker 10: time per year but still having them online does mean 383 00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 10: that the prices do go up, so at the same 384 00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:59,199 Speaker 10: time it does bring down costs. But when you do 385 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 10: look at these specific kind of the workings of it, 386 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 10: there are chances that there's lots of inflatory pressures from 387 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 10: the buildout. 388 00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 1: We heard a lot from d Meiler Band. A moment 389 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 1: ago during the election campaign, he and kir Starmer promised 390 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:13,359 Speaker 1: that this plan would reduce household energy bills by three 391 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 1: hundred pounds a year. Was the figure that we heard about. 392 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 1: Has that pledge then been abandoned? 393 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:19,639 Speaker 10: I mean, yeah, well, during the election campaign they were 394 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 10: very keen to talk about this two hundred pounds. Right 395 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 10: now that language has been ped back a little bit. 396 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,400 Speaker 10: They're now start talking about as much as three hundred pounds, 397 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:27,240 Speaker 10: saying that it could happen but also could not. In 398 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 10: the latest kind of release last Friday, they were definitely 399 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 10: talking about building a foundation to lower bills. I mean, 400 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:34,400 Speaker 10: no one disputes that bills will probably fall in ten 401 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:37,000 Speaker 10: fifteen years, but this short term five year pledges where 402 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,159 Speaker 10: there's issues with it, and the government definitely knows that 403 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,399 Speaker 10: their pledges probably will not be able to be delivered. 404 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:45,320 Speaker 1: On what could be done to mitigate the impact on households. 405 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:47,640 Speaker 1: Is the potential that the target might move again? 406 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 5: Maybe yeah, I. 407 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 10: Mean when you talk to industry experts, I'm talking to 408 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 10: all these executives, they say that you know, it might 409 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:54,399 Speaker 10: be twenty thirty two to twenty thirty three reaching these goals, 410 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:56,359 Speaker 10: you know, the bills could come down in the twenty thirties. 411 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:58,159 Speaker 10: I guess when it comes to consumer bills, there is 412 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 10: a talk of kind of shifting some of the levies 413 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:01,640 Speaker 10: that consumers have to pay. So when you do build 414 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:03,479 Speaker 10: a wind farm, consumers do pay some money on that 415 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 10: on their bills. Shifting that into general taxation instead of 416 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:08,480 Speaker 10: onto bills. They're kind of playing around with the accounting, 417 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 10: but it would be a way of shifting the burnd 418 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 10: off of consumers onto kind of general taxation to pay 419 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 10: for the buildout of these huge renewable goals that the 420 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:15,719 Speaker 10: government has. 421 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,919 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the 422 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,040 Speaker 1: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond. 423 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 9: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify, 424 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 9: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 425 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,399 Speaker 1: You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio, 426 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,159 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. 427 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 9: Our flagship New York station is also available on your 428 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:41,679 Speaker 9: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 429 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 5: I'm Caroline Hepka and. 430 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again tomorrow morning for all 431 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 1: the news you need to start your day right here 432 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:53,879 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg day Break. Europe