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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? There were running again? So smoothe so sweet,

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Speaker 1: stupid sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 1: is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop with mind?

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Speaker 1: Good buddy, and that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 3: Look at his movements the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying. The love is

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Speaker 1: left too, the wide eyed.

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Speaker 2: Drilled bibus how old Earth?

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Speaker 3: Pick that happens? Hellori one and welcome to Wondergul, the

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Speaker 3: Soccer Benning podcast from the Action Network. My name is

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Speaker 3: Michael Lippa and joining me for this our Copa America

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Speaker 3: Final preview with DJ Cunningham.

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Speaker 1: BJ.

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Speaker 3: We've got quite the match, quite in the atmosphere, quite

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Speaker 3: just an absolute carnival to dive into. Here is Argentina

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Speaker 3: and Colombia play for the trophy in Miami. It's going

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Speaker 3: to be crazy. This whole tournament's been nuts. No match

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Speaker 3: was more emblematic of that than Columbia or Uruguay. On

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Speaker 3: Wednesday night, Columbia wins one nil that earns them the

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Speaker 3: opportunity to win their first Copa America since two thousand

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Speaker 3: and one, and they now take on Argentina. As you'd imagine,

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Speaker 3: Argentina is a decided favorite. Their minus one sixty three

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Speaker 3: to live the trophy Columbia plus one thirty. The three

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Speaker 3: way line at bet three sixty five is Argentina plus

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Speaker 3: one twenty five. Columbia plus two sixty to draw is

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Speaker 3: plus two hundred and in this leg of the tournament

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Speaker 3: there is extra time. So there was no extra time

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Speaker 3: if any match was drawn before this, but now if

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Speaker 3: these two teams are tied after ninety minutes, we get

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Speaker 3: the thirty minutes extra time and then penalty kicks. Nonetheless,

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Speaker 3: that's all by the bye. I do think that these

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Speaker 3: odds maybe are a little wide given what we've seen

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Speaker 3: out of Columbia, not just at this tournament, was just generally.

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Speaker 3: I think we rightfully tend to overlook, you know, friendlies

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Speaker 3: and such like that. But this team hasn't lost in

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Speaker 3: so long, They've got a lot of players in great forum.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Hamas has been the player of the tournament.

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Speaker 3: I think pretty clearly the attacking options are there to

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Speaker 3: give Argentina some issues and as We've talked about Argentina's

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Speaker 3: superpower is keeping games on the level, keeping games kind

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Speaker 3: of in between on script, in between the error bars.

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Speaker 3: But it's gonna be really hard to do that against

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Speaker 3: this Columbia team. So I don't think it's the best

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Speaker 3: bet in the world, but I like a bet here

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Speaker 3: on Colombia to win, to start things off your BIJA,

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Speaker 3: and I like it inside ninety I should.

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Speaker 1: Say yeah, and I actually like Argentina inside ninety. So

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Speaker 1: Colombia funny enough that you mentioned that they haven't lost

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Speaker 1: in a long time in non friendlies. Their last lost

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Speaker 1: game to Argentina in February first of twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: That's the run that they've been on this It has

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Speaker 1: been crazy for me. I think Argentina is a tad

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Speaker 1: undervalued here, especially inside the ninety minutes. I'm betting inside

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Speaker 1: ninety minutes. I'm not. I'm not laying minus one sixty

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Speaker 1: for them to lift the trophy. But I think there's

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Speaker 1: a couple of things that are hurting Columbia here. So

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Speaker 1: you know, Colombia, if you look through all the teams

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Speaker 1: that they have played, you know they have beaten Brazil,

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Speaker 1: They ob seen drew Brazil as well here in Copa America.

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Speaker 2: But the problem that I I'm you know, thinking that

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Speaker 2: might happen to them here is if they come out

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Speaker 2: and they try to press Argentina and they try to

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Speaker 2: play high intensity and they try to really really come

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Speaker 2: after them, They're going to leave a lot of space.

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Speaker 1: And like we've seen with Argentina throughout this tournament and

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Speaker 1: for you know, forever under Scoloni, is that if they

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Speaker 1: if you give them any type a little bit of opening,

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Speaker 1: they will hit it and they will punish you over

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Speaker 1: and over and over again. And you saw early on

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Speaker 1: against Uruguay was playing a lot of long balls in

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Speaker 1: over the top and was working. Argentina does that. They're

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Speaker 1: not just a team like England who will just sit

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Speaker 1: back and pass the ball back and forth. They will

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Speaker 1: play balls and over the top. They're very aggressive in possession.

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Speaker 1: They're patient though, they will wait for their opportunities. So

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Speaker 1: even though Columbia has been really good defensively throughout this tournament,

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Speaker 1: I mean it has been very impressive. They haven't allowed

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Speaker 1: anybody to create over one expected goal against them. In fact,

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Speaker 1: the last team that's created over one expected gole against

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Speaker 1: them was Uruguay and World Cup qualifying in October of

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. So it's been a very, very impressive

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Speaker 1: run and I think that's what these odds are are

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Speaker 1: taking into account as this more recent type of performances

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Speaker 1: from Columbia. But Colombia is going to be without Mooney

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Speaker 1: as a right back, which I think is a massive

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Speaker 1: loss for them. He's second and progressive passes, he's second

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Speaker 1: and passes in the penalty area. He's scored twice, and

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Speaker 1: he's also third and passes into the final third. They

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Speaker 1: don't really have a replacement for him. So his loss

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Speaker 1: in terms of actually when on Columbia is able to

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Speaker 1: get the ball, progress the ball up the field quickly.

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Speaker 1: Not having him down the right flank is going to

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Speaker 1: hurt them quite a bit, I think, and I just

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Speaker 1: really worry about you know, Colombia is going to come

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Speaker 1: after Argentina. You know, they're they're a very they're a

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Speaker 1: similar team, but they're a different team to you know,

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Speaker 1: Uruguay is a team that will sit in the mid

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Speaker 1: block and press out of it, whereas Columbia just comes after,

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Speaker 1: you like from the jump, and that could very mal work,

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Speaker 1: very well work, and they could definitely pick off Argentina

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Speaker 1: and score here, but I have Argentina projected at minus

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Speaker 1: one thirty two. You know, even if we want to

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Speaker 1: go from the World Cup qualifiers through Cope America. Till now,

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Speaker 1: Colombia has a plus zero point seven to two, expect

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Speaker 1: to go differential for ninety minutes. Argentina's at plus one

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Speaker 1: point two. I know they've played an easier schedule, but

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Speaker 1: in any case, I think Argentina is a more talented team.

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Speaker 1: I think they're way better set up to deal with

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Speaker 1: Columbia's press than anybody else has been in this tournament.

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Speaker 1: So I like them to win ninety minutes at plus

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Speaker 1: one twenty five.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the numbers would probably as you said,

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Speaker 3: they like, they'd back that up. I'm I'm looking at

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Speaker 3: this as more of a I feel like this thing's

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Speaker 3: just just like we saw with the Columbia match against Uruguay.

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Speaker 3: Like this, this is given the atmosphere that we're expecting it,

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Speaker 3: the emotion at play, the pressure on these two teams,

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Speaker 3: I think this thing goes off the rails. I also

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Speaker 3: like to over at plus one sixty two to over

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Speaker 3: two and a half goals at plus one sixty two.

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Speaker 3: I kind of look at this in like the Uruguay match,

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Speaker 3: I think we both can agree should have went over,

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Speaker 3: especially with the way that I.

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Speaker 1: Know that there was only two expected goal.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if anybody want, I mean, it's like you know, right,

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Speaker 3: I think that's part of what what like you over

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Speaker 3: over like the long term of a season.

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Speaker 1: Expected goles is such a useful tool.

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Speaker 3: But in these situations where if you watch that match

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Speaker 3: and you can then come back and look me in

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Speaker 3: the eye and say, yeah, that the the undershould have

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Speaker 3: hit easily, there got because it looks like it did,

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Speaker 3: right goal score, but Colombia missed two sitters the post

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Speaker 3: for Uruguay, who had punch of opportunities. They were playing

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Speaker 3: with up a man for an entire half. Yeah, So,

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Speaker 3: like I do think it's not going to get that crazy, right,

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Speaker 3: Like this is a final, you'd expect things to be

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Speaker 3: a little bit more buttoned up. But one event, whether

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Speaker 3: that's a goal, whether it's a little fractice of a

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Speaker 3: Donnie Brook between these two sides who there's no love

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Speaker 3: lost between them. Argentina dismissed Colombia penalties in the twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty one Copa I remember that because Lionel Messi was

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Speaker 3: really given stick to the Colombian players during the penalties.

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Speaker 3: Every time they missed, he would he would make fun

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Speaker 3: of them. So like there's there's going to be a

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Speaker 3: lot going on here, and I think that leads to

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Speaker 3: obviously more scoring opportunities and situations I don't seem yet.

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Speaker 3: You know, we're recording this on Thursday, so we have

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Speaker 3: to get to Sunday. And but I will if that

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Speaker 3: prop is posted again where both ye get a red card.

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Speaker 3: It was thirty three to one for Uruguay versus Columbia.

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Speaker 3: I think maybe it comes down a little bit if

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Speaker 3: folks are paying attention. But I'll look at that as well,

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Speaker 3: and I think that this this will be a card fest,

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Speaker 3: especially if one team has got like you know, two

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Speaker 3: nil or something and it looks over. I was an

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Speaker 3: unlucky loser as well. Right like that, we got a

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Speaker 3: red card, and there's in the forty fifth minute there

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Speaker 3: probably could have been in one earlier on Davenson Sanchez.

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Speaker 1: Then there's a fight.

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Speaker 3: Darwin's Darwin Nunez went it to the to the stands

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Speaker 3: to fight Colombian fans. It is it is like a

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Speaker 3: little bit of a cliche to talk about Copa America

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Speaker 3: in this way, but it's because it's because of what

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Speaker 3: happens at this tournament. Every yes, there, there, it's a

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Speaker 3: it's it's an absolute carnival this tournament. It's so much

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Speaker 3: fun to watch, especially when we get to these stages

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Speaker 3: of of it, and I think that all adds to

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Speaker 3: the chaos. So I like the over, I like I

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Speaker 3: like Columbia inside ninety and I'm gonna look for that

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Speaker 3: prop again to see if I can get.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, if you're looking for some other props, Thetuo Martinez

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Speaker 1: over two and a half shots at minus one thirty

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Speaker 1: five I think is decent. He's getting over four shots

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Speaker 1: per ninety this tournament. Obviously, the you know Messi has

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Speaker 1: been their highest shotgutter, but he's obviously been carrying some

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Speaker 1: type of injury throughout this tournament, so he could be

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Speaker 1: used a little bit more as a decoy. And as

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Speaker 1: we've seen with Argentina many many times, when they're struggling

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Speaker 1: to play through whatever it be a low block or

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Speaker 1: some type of pressure, Messi will always be the one

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Speaker 1: that drops deep to help and build up. Because number one,

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Speaker 1: he's you know He's incredible at everything right, but also

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Speaker 1: him coming out brings a center back or defensive midfielder

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Speaker 1: with him, which creates a lot of openings and opportunities.

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Speaker 1: And that's where Lato Martinez has gotten a lot of

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Speaker 1: his option, a lot of his shots and everything like that,

190
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Speaker 1: and he has scored four goals for Argentina so far

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Speaker 1: as tournament. So Laturo Martinez, you know, if you want

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Speaker 1: to play him, you know, yes, over two and a

193
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Speaker 1: half shots at minus one thirty eight. Might look at

194
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Speaker 1: some tackle props as well. Christian Merrow is twenty one

195
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Speaker 1: tackles so far for Argentina's tournaments. Tackle prop is over

196
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Speaker 1: three and a half, which is quite high. But yeah,

197
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Speaker 1: I'll look into some more props here and we'll see

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Speaker 1: if we can get somebody, you know, some more props

199
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Speaker 1: from Colombia. Again, it's it's really this, This entire final

200
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Speaker 1: is just going to come down to how effective Columbia is.

201
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Speaker 1: They're pressing. If they're not, Argentina's gonna win it. If

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Speaker 1: they are effective, I think they're gonna win it. So

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Speaker 1: that's all this really comes down to in my opinion.

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Speaker 3: Okay, that does it. Thank you to everyone who's been

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Speaker 3: listening along the way to our COPA coverage and our

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Speaker 3: euro coverage. We will take a quick breather here after

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Speaker 3: these two tournaments wrap up and get ready for the

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Speaker 3: Premier League season which starts in less than a month.

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Speaker 3: So after a little brief hiatus, we'll be back. But

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Speaker 3: until then, bets luck with all your bets. Thank you

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Speaker 3: to our sponsor's Beat three six five and to our

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Speaker 3: producer Noah. We will see you in a couple of weeks.

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