1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. 11 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 3: Stewart Carser joins us head of US Equity Trading Strategy 12 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:53,600 Speaker 3: at City Global Markets. Stewart, you came off the trading 13 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 3: desk of the City. What are you traders seeing from 14 00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 3: their clients these days? What are they buying? What are 15 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 3: they selling? The activity look like on your desk. 16 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean if you took a quick look back 17 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 4: at the third quarter, what you would see as an 18 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 4: investment community that was buying quality stocks but also broadening 19 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 4: out their portfolios a bit. So I think people being 20 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:12,120 Speaker 4: careful in the type of stocks they own because of 21 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:14,959 Speaker 4: you know this rolling recession risk we've been fighting. But 22 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:17,760 Speaker 4: you know what we saw in last quarter's earnings was 23 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:20,320 Speaker 4: the four ninety three not the mag seven actually generate 24 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 4: positive EPs growth. So it's giving you a broader field 25 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 4: to play in, but people are still keeping it close 26 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:26,280 Speaker 4: to the vest I would say, I know, when. 27 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,319 Speaker 2: Andrew Hollandor's publishes, you throw it right in a waste basket. 28 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 2: But on the way you make glance at the cover. 29 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 2: If we get a holland Ort set of rate cuts, 30 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:36,919 Speaker 2: what does that do to Stewart Kaiser's world? 31 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 4: Look at you know, and Andrew on Friday has seventy 32 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 4: thousand K jobs, and basically that job's outlook is what's 33 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:44,440 Speaker 4: driving the. 34 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:45,680 Speaker 2: Loana long number. 35 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 4: So you know that job's number is what's driving that 36 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 4: rate cut assumption. So I think if you're cutting rates 37 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 4: because the labor market's decelerating like that, that is bad 38 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 4: for equities in our view on a net basis, If 39 00:01:57,280 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 4: we get lucky and the FED is doing pure insure 40 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 4: durrance cuts, you're getting one hundred and fifty k jobs, 41 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 4: which is where consensus is, and you're getting the Ray cuts, 42 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:07,600 Speaker 4: I think that's quite positive for equities. Which is why 43 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 4: Friday is just, you know, such an important day, an 44 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 4: event for the Market's probably the most important day of 45 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 4: the month. 46 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 2: It is coming Friday. 47 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, So I mean, going into that print, I mean, 48 00:02:15,440 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 3: I can't imagine people on the desk are taking much 49 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 3: risk of these days. 50 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:20,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I think what we saw the last 51 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 4: month is a lot of event rest trading. So you're 52 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 4: trading a day of events, and then between the events, 53 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:26,079 Speaker 4: the market's kind of sitting out his hands a little 54 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 4: bit to try to digest stuff. So I think what 55 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 4: you'll see today is a pretty quiet week in the 56 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 4: run up to Friday. 57 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 2: I mean, of everyone we talked to, you're the only 58 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 2: one that lives the wonderful show industry. You know, it's 59 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 2: out of the London desk, Canary Wharf and all that, 60 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:47,079 Speaker 2: but I mean you Canary work. You live it. Stuart Kaiser, 61 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 2: what was your desk like when China Wants China twice 62 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,920 Speaker 2: provided various and Sunday stimulus, what was the level of 63 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 2: bedlam like? 64 00:02:57,040 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 4: Look, I think initially it was a little bit of 65 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 4: we've seen this before, but then when they continue to 66 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:03,799 Speaker 4: follow up with it in terms of you know, new announcements, 67 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 4: you know, the the what you're having here is very 68 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 4: negative sentiments or towards China that's accumulated over a number 69 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 4: of years, but a very large package that the Chinese 70 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 4: policy makers seem to be signaling they're gonna they're gonna repeat. 71 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 4: So I think what you're seeing is effectively, you know, 72 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 4: people are getting sort of shocked by the tax. 73 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 2: Is there profanity on the desk like an industry. 74 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 4: I would I would say there was some choice words, 75 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 4: choice word Okay, So I think if specifically on China, 76 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 4: I think you're in a situation here is they they 77 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 4: shocked the market, and the question is when you get 78 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 4: back from Golden Week, is their follow through or was 79 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 4: this window dressing ahead of a big political event. And 80 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 4: if there's follow through, then the positioning is not there 81 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 4: on China and you could get some people forced into it. So, 82 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 4: you know, Marcus performing wealth, We'll have to see what 83 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 4: happens after after after this, uh, you know, vacation week 84 00:03:57,120 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 4: for them, and we'll see how much follow through there is. 85 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 3: How about valuation in the marketplace here, we've seen the 86 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 3: SMP equal weighted index. Actually I perform a little bit recently, 87 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 3: so a little bit of a broadening out in the marketplace. 88 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 3: How do you guys think about valuation in this market? 89 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 4: Valuations is high, but not obscene, I guess is the 90 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 4: way I might put it. You're kind of like upper 91 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,040 Speaker 4: core tile upper DEAC style, but you're not at MAX levels. 92 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 4: Look at the bottom line for US valuation. We view 93 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:23,040 Speaker 4: that as potential energy. So if you do get a 94 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 4: sell off, there's more room to fall. But you need 95 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 4: a catalyst to release potential energy, turn a kinetic, and 96 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 4: that catalyst is likely going to be the feder of 97 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:33,280 Speaker 4: the jobs market. So it's an issue, but we need 98 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:34,040 Speaker 4: something to release it. 99 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:35,479 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know where it is, but Apple's 100 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 2: out near not to a new high. I mean Meg's 101 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 2: seven update from Stuart Kaiser. 102 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 4: Look, MAX seven I think is still the core holding 103 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,559 Speaker 4: of most of Vester's tom and that's a large long 104 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:49,039 Speaker 4: position that's been built over a number of years. But 105 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 4: truth and Advertising last quarter was solid, but you know, 106 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:55,839 Speaker 4: not a knockout quarter. So I do think you've got 107 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 4: people in this large core position that at this point, 108 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 4: earning season is going to be very very important this 109 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:03,159 Speaker 4: time around. Then for Nvidia early next year with the 110 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 4: introdroduction of the new Chipset's going to be very, very important. 111 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:08,920 Speaker 4: So my summary would be it is still a core holding, 112 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 4: but people are asking some questions after last earning season. 113 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 3: WTI crew to oil alow sixty eight dollars a hour. 114 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:15,799 Speaker 2: What's the energy call for you, guys? 115 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:18,600 Speaker 4: Honestly, it's oil to me has been probably one of 116 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:20,920 Speaker 4: the more confounding trades over the last twelve to eighteen months. 117 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 4: If I wrote you a list of all the catalysts 118 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:24,919 Speaker 4: and events that happened, you wouldn't expect oil to be 119 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:28,040 Speaker 4: where it is. US is producing a tremendous amount of oil. 120 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:31,240 Speaker 4: China's excuse me, rush is probably bleeding some discounting price 121 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:33,279 Speaker 4: oil onto the market. So I think it's hard to 122 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 4: be particularly bullish the oil price just given a the 123 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:39,359 Speaker 4: structural challenges, be the event risk that the market is absorbed, 124 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 4: and see the amount of oil that the US is 125 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 4: putting out. So for now, I think we're sort of 126 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 4: on the sidelines with that, at least from an equity perspective. 127 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:49,160 Speaker 2: Ster Kuser, thank you so much. It was City Group. 128 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 2: This is there if you grow up in Arkansas, which 129 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:07,119 Speaker 2: is far west of this horrific hellene damage that we've 130 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:11,360 Speaker 2: seen you are wedded to the Mississippi River. And if 131 00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:14,279 Speaker 2: you grow up in Arkansas as a kid and your 132 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:17,280 Speaker 2: parents sort of kind of like remember it, but it 133 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 2: is seared into the memory of your grandparents. Is the 134 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:25,840 Speaker 2: Great Mississippi Flood of nineteen twenty seven, which is where 135 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:29,839 Speaker 2: America decided what it would do in disasters. Frenchhill of 136 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:33,279 Speaker 2: Arkansas joins us this morning, Frenchhill, We've got to come 137 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 2: to the rescue of these people. Are Democrats and Republicans united? 138 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 5: Well, good morning, Tom, And yes, nineteen twenty seven was 139 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:47,280 Speaker 5: the ultimate devastation in the Mississippi Valley. A great book 140 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 5: Lanards on the levee of the culture there. So yes, absolutely, 141 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:55,839 Speaker 5: And let me point out that Speaker Mike Johnson, in 142 00:06:56,040 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 5: our first version of the Continuing Resolution that included our 143 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 5: say back, which limited voting to just American citizens and 144 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:08,599 Speaker 5: federal elections. We also had a replenishment of the THEMA 145 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 5: bond in that bill. Unfortunately, some of my colleagues did 146 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 5: not go along with that Continuing Resolution. So when we 147 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 5: get back, I think we'll be confronted with a supplemental 148 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 5: appropriation to replenish those FEMA stocks. 149 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 2: Okay, but French I mean cut to the chase speaker. 150 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 2: Trump reniged on North Carolina X number of times ago. 151 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:31,600 Speaker 2: I don't know Paul Sweeney had to shovel out his 152 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 2: cottage during Hurricane Sandy across fifty states. We don't know 153 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 2: where the next disaster is. How do Republicans grow up 154 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 2: and do a unified effort for these people devastated. 155 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 5: I think we will. I'm sure we will have a 156 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 5: supplemental appropriation, as I say, to support FEMA, and we'll 157 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:54,679 Speaker 5: deal with that as soon as the Congress is back 158 00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:59,120 Speaker 5: in early November. And I think we should, and that's 159 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 5: why I voted four back in September. 160 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 3: So French, when Congress does get back in early November, 161 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 3: give us kind of from your perspective what the to 162 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 3: do list is for our Congress. 163 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 5: It's extensive. First, we've got to finish fiscal twenty five spending. 164 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 5: The House passed about seventy five percent of federal spending 165 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 5: across our House floor. The Senate has passed no bills 166 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 5: across the Senate floor. That's the top issue when we 167 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 5: get back is settling on spending. We have a cr 168 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 5: that runs until the third week in December. Secondly, we 169 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 5: have the National Defense Authorization Bill, which has been in 170 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:39,959 Speaker 5: conference between the Senate and House. That bill will certainly 171 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:42,840 Speaker 5: come to the floor. And then, as Tom noted, the 172 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 5: crisis in the southeast from the hurricane, but there's another 173 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 5: crisis brewing in farm country, which is the effect that 174 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:55,199 Speaker 5: we don't have a renewal of the agriculture programs. Reauthorize 175 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 5: those every five years. They're expiring at the end of 176 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 5: the year. There's some severe shortages in some of the 177 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 5: commodity programs. I think that'll be a property when we 178 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 5: get back as well. 179 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 3: And I guess kind of the most immediate thing here 180 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 3: right now, Congressman, is the strike. We're day one of 181 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 3: the strike here on the East Coast, and I'm just 182 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:15,439 Speaker 3: kind of looking at some maps up on the various 183 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:18,160 Speaker 3: TV networks, and it's just, you know, the entire East Coast, 184 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:21,679 Speaker 3: wrapping around Florida well into the Gulf Coast here. These 185 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 3: ports are shut down, impacting you know, roughly half of 186 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 3: the trade coming in and out of this country. What's 187 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:30,560 Speaker 3: the view in Washington, d C. Is how this should 188 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:31,560 Speaker 3: play out or could play out. 189 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 5: Well, you heard the calls estaments from JP Morgan Chase, 190 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:39,880 Speaker 5: You're talking about forty five thousand people, thirty six ports, 191 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 5: the entire Gulf and East Coast network of long shoreman. 192 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:48,240 Speaker 5: It's my understanding the President has eighty days that he 193 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 5: could ask for a cooling off period and intervene in 194 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 5: this strike, which comes at a precipitous time, both in 195 00:09:55,520 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 5: the economy, which is soft, where in a situation where 196 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:05,080 Speaker 5: we have unprecedented amounts of imports coming into the country 197 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 5: for the Christmas holiday season. So I think it's got 198 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:12,439 Speaker 5: a dramatic impact on the economy, particularly in the Southeast 199 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:15,319 Speaker 5: when you're already battered by the hurricane. So I don't 200 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 5: know if the President's going to take that action or not. 201 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 2: French Hill, how does the Senator from Ohio recalibrate from 202 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:27,079 Speaker 2: the last number of months of a campaign? And I 203 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 2: don't know what the polling is. I'm going to assume 204 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 2: it's a dead heat. It's not for me to say 205 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 2: what the polling is. But how does the Senator from 206 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:38,559 Speaker 2: Ohio this evening recalibrate back to the grand old Party 207 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 2: of Hill and Lincoln. 208 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:45,640 Speaker 5: Let's say, to advanced So tonight should remind voters that 209 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 5: Harris Walls is the continuation of the Biden administration and 210 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,720 Speaker 5: the three big issues in this campaign inflation and the 211 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 5: impact on our families, the open border and the impact 212 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 5: on bentanol, crime in our communities, and potential terror attacks. 213 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:07,559 Speaker 5: Those two issues are critical, and I just believe that 214 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 5: Senator Vance ought to go back to the issue that 215 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 5: Harris and Biden had four years to deal with that 216 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 5: and it was decisions that they took as president and 217 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:21,320 Speaker 5: Vice president that had made those situations worse. And I 218 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:23,720 Speaker 5: think that's where he ought to stick. Stick to the facts, 219 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 5: stick to the fact that the Trump Dvance policies could 220 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:32,559 Speaker 5: be better than the Harris Waltz policies on border security, 221 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:36,600 Speaker 5: national security, the economy, and particularly pushing back on inflation. 222 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 2: Look for the coverage tonight in Bloomberg Radio at eight 223 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:40,920 Speaker 2: pm Paul. 224 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 3: Bounce the power exactly, Tom Congressman Hill, what do you think. 225 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:48,240 Speaker 3: I mean, we get back into session here in November. 226 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,600 Speaker 3: Most of the experts that we hear from they expect, 227 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:54,320 Speaker 3: you know, this is going to be a deadlock government 228 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 3: going forward. 229 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:56,200 Speaker 4: I mean, it's a. 230 00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:59,559 Speaker 3: Relatively small chance that either the Republicans will sweep the 231 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 3: three branches or the Democrats will sweep the three branches. 232 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:04,960 Speaker 3: So most of the odds suggest it's going to be 233 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 3: a deadlocked type of government. What can we expect from 234 00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 3: that type of government over the next several years, do 235 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:11,079 Speaker 3: you think, what's your perspective. 236 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 5: Well, let's use your hypothetical of tight margins in the 237 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 5: Senate and House, and then we don't know the outcome. 238 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:26,679 Speaker 5: In November, either President Harris or Trump will face the 239 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 5: chronic sustained two trillion dollars per year deficit that has 240 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:37,199 Speaker 5: been spawned by decisions made during the pandemic and expiring 241 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:39,559 Speaker 5: tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 242 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 5: twenty seventeen, plus obviously grappling with the Congress approving a 243 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 5: new target for the debt ceiling on a bipartisan basis, 244 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:53,200 Speaker 5: and that expires in January. This new president coming in 245 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 5: is going to be confronted with the most severe fiscal 246 00:12:56,600 --> 00:13:01,200 Speaker 5: situation that I've seen in my my policy days, and 247 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 5: I think that will dominate those politics, as you say, 248 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 5: in a narrowly divided Congress. 249 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:10,439 Speaker 2: Friends show one final question. My major issue with Basl 250 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 2: is I hope it's still imported from Italy. You know, 251 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 2: for the kitchen, you're looking at a different basle in 252 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 2: Basel Switzerland, and what it basically is out of the 253 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 2: carnage of two thousand and seven is we've got to 254 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:25,440 Speaker 2: load up capital in our banks. You have on very 255 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 2: unfrenchhill like language. We are golden plating America's banks. 256 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 5: Discuss Oh, Tom Basil is, as you know, a about 257 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:42,440 Speaker 5: a forty year trend now and trying to harmonize capital 258 00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 5: standards between the global banks. And so we're now on 259 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:49,680 Speaker 5: Basil three and they call it the BASL three endgame. 260 00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 5: I didn't like Basil one. This sequel movie is not 261 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:56,319 Speaker 5: much better. But our banks are the strongest in the country, 262 00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:59,200 Speaker 5: in the world. We have the highest capital in the world. 263 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 5: Any of us in Congress, and I think in the 264 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 5: private markets felt like the Michael Barr Federal Reserve proposal 265 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:12,160 Speaker 5: for BASL three in game overdid it it penalized American 266 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:17,679 Speaker 5: banks and competitiveness to European banks. Even Marc o'drogy in 267 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 5: Europe said the purpose of BASL three was to have 268 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 5: capital neutrality but change some of the risk ratings. The 269 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 5: Bar proposal increased capital for American banks nearly twenty percent. 270 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 5: And that's why I've called on this entire proposal to 271 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 5: be reproposed, resubmitted for comment. 272 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 2: One final quick one here we got to go cover 273 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:43,000 Speaker 2: Tigers baseball. But Friendshill, is just simple. Does Arkansas have 274 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:46,880 Speaker 2: the toughest football schedule in America? It's like every week 275 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 2: they're playing somebody large. 276 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:53,880 Speaker 5: It's the toughest schedule. We have a great, dynamic team 277 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 5: that wins the statistics but loses the games. We got 278 00:14:57,240 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 5: to hold onto the ball and stop fund and fumbling. 279 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 2: Very good, Coach Hill, Thank you so much. French Schill 280 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:05,920 Speaker 2: and Arkansas, Texas A and M last week, Auburn the 281 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 2: week before in Paul, Tennessee. I didn't know Tennessee's rank 282 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:10,480 Speaker 2: number four. 283 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 3: I know they're back. 284 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 2: They're back. It's Canoxville, right yno Canocksville? Okay, Tennessee at Arkansas, 285 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 2: French Shill, thank you for those comments, particularly about the debate. 286 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 2: This is an honor. First of all, let me say 287 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:33,280 Speaker 2: uh Bloomberg Surveillance and we thank Interactive Brokers. Bloomberg surveilans 288 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 2: brought you daily by Interactive Brokers and their portfolio analysts 289 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 2: consolidate and analyze all your financial accounts on one powerful dashboard. 290 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 2: For free. Sign up for a portfolio analyst at I 291 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 2: b k R dot com slash free p A. Let 292 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 2: me spell that out, I b k R dot com 293 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 2: slash f r e e p A free p A. 294 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 2: Thank you Interactive Brokers for your coverage. Every professor has 295 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 2: cottage Industries. One of the tangential ideas for Julie Norman 296 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:10,120 Speaker 2: at UCL London is to cover the Baltimore Orioles for 297 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:13,080 Speaker 2: the entire London media. She's on top of that story 298 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 2: this morning, but tragically and seriously, she is absolutely definitive 299 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:23,120 Speaker 2: on terror in the Middle East. She picked it up 300 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:26,240 Speaker 2: early and far too often we're honed to speak with 301 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 2: Professor Norman this morning. Professor, there's Bay Route close to 302 00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 2: the southern border, and then there's lots of Lebanon up 303 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 2: to Tartis in north up towards Syria. Is Hesbala in 304 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 2: the entirety of Lebanon or just the south. 305 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:49,000 Speaker 6: Yeah, well, good morning, Tom, and I wish we could 306 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 6: just talk about the It was a little bit more, 307 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 6: but you're right, there's obviously a lot going on in 308 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 6: the Middle East these days, and for Hesbala, they're an 309 00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 6: interesting group and where they're located, their main stronghold and 310 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 6: the one that the that Israel focuses on the most 311 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 6: is in the southern part of Lebanon, the part that 312 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 6: borders with Israel, but they also have another stronghold in 313 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:13,359 Speaker 6: the northeast of Lebanon along the Syrian border. So that's 314 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:17,480 Speaker 6: one reason why some of Israel's strikes have targeted other 315 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 6: parts of the country beyond just that southern that southern tip. 316 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 2: What is your beneath the headline data in the sameness going, 317 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:29,679 Speaker 2: you know, Telegraph, FT, Bloomberg and all, you know, our 318 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 2: wonderful coverage out to tell Aviv? What is the story 319 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 2: not being told right now? Professor Norman. 320 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I would say one thing is that 321 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,919 Speaker 6: there's been a year of diplomatic efforts to try and 322 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 6: prevent what's happening now, and I think that piece has 323 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 6: sometimes forgotten that the US, France, numerous actors were trying 324 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 6: to broker something that could, you know, prevent this kind 325 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 6: of escalation. I would also point out that there's a 326 00:17:56,359 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 6: two thousand and six UN Security Council resolution that set 327 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:03,680 Speaker 6: essentially a border in Lebanon that was supposed to have 328 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:07,760 Speaker 6: a buffer zone between Israel and Hasbalah that has been violated. 329 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:11,400 Speaker 6: So I would say from Israel's perspective, they had tried 330 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 6: the diplomatic track and feel this was a necessary move. Obviously, 331 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 6: many others disagree with that assessment, but that was very 332 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 6: much the thinking in Israel talking to people there this summer. 333 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:24,880 Speaker 3: So, Professor, we have reporting this morning that Israel has 334 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:29,960 Speaker 3: begun targeted ground rates at the uproot Hesbola in southern Lebanon. 335 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:34,719 Speaker 3: It seems like Israel is kind of settling all debts 336 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:39,160 Speaker 3: with all parties out there following October seventh. Here overall, 337 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:42,720 Speaker 3: what do you think Israel's strategy is these days? 338 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 6: Yeo, I think you said it. I mean it's a 339 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 6: couple of things. One, in terms of this current operation, 340 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:52,680 Speaker 6: there's been tens of thousands of Israelis who were uprooted 341 00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:56,160 Speaker 6: from their homes in northern Israel because of essentially daily 342 00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 6: rocket attacks from Hesbela into the north. So part of 343 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 6: this termain is just getting back control over that territory 344 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:05,400 Speaker 6: and getting people back to their homes. But I would 345 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 6: say the bigger objective for Israel is to reassert their 346 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 6: security deterns, their security superiority in the region, and to 347 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 6: just flex that a little bit. After the atrocities of 348 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:19,439 Speaker 6: October seventh after being caught in the back foot, and 349 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 6: to come back on the offensive and really send the 350 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,479 Speaker 6: message to all groups in the region, not just Hamass 351 00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 6: and not just has Blog. 352 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 2: The distance from Tehran to Beirut is inside of a 353 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 2: thousand miles. What does everybody in between e to Run 354 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:38,119 Speaker 2: and Beroot want? In the Arab world? What does Riod want? 355 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,399 Speaker 2: What does Kuwait want? What does Abu Dhabi want? 356 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:45,440 Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a good question, Tom, because the Middle East 357 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:49,479 Speaker 6: itself is not There's not a straight alignment on this. 358 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 2: Is it just but is it just sunny Suoni Shiya? 359 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:54,880 Speaker 2: Is it just as simple as that? 360 00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 6: It often falls along those lines. But I would say 361 00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 6: it's definitely not that simple. I even point out that 362 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:04,439 Speaker 6: Hamas is mostly a Sunni group, even though they're in 363 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,399 Speaker 6: this you know, Iran access of Resistance network that is 364 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 6: mostly Shia and backed by Iran. So even that relationship 365 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,439 Speaker 6: is not neat on sectarian lines. I think the bigger 366 00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 6: push here is a massive, like regional power rivalry between 367 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 6: Saudi Arabia on the one hand and Iran on the other, 368 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:24,120 Speaker 6: and the states around them who are linked to them 369 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:27,960 Speaker 6: for different kinds of interest, some ideological, but some more geopolitical, 370 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 6: and so those two states are you know, very very 371 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 6: much at odds with each other. And that's one reason 372 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:37,200 Speaker 6: why you don't see Ryod, you know, backing up anything 373 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,800 Speaker 6: that's being done. They see Hesbalah and Iran as just 374 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 6: as much of a threat these days as I would 375 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 6: say Israel to say the US would to what percentage. 376 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 2: Of Hezbollah is degraded right now? I mean Paul alluded 377 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 2: to that earlier, but I can't get a handle on 378 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 2: the how muchness of harm other than the headlines of 379 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:57,439 Speaker 2: leaders being killed. 380 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm not sure that anyone really knows, Tom. I mean, 381 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:05,199 Speaker 6: we estimate that HASBLA has around fifty thousand operatives, but 382 00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,640 Speaker 6: even that number is an estimate. It's been put higher 383 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,960 Speaker 6: and lower. And they have an arsenal again estimated around 384 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 6: one hundred and fifty thousand different types of rockets and 385 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:16,879 Speaker 6: missiles that Israel is trying to degrade. So just to 386 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 6: say there's been a lot of damage obviously at that 387 00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:22,359 Speaker 6: leadership level for sure, but in terms of full operational 388 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 6: capacity that still runs pretty deep. And that's Israel's motivation, 389 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 6: I think for this ground invasion to try and to 390 00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:30,679 Speaker 6: try and uproot some of that too, but it's pretty 391 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 6: extensive and that's why they've been seen as such a threat. 392 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 2: Do we have to go there? Should we go there too? 393 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,679 Speaker 2: I sh'll come back if we ask an Orioles question. 394 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 2: Sure surely. Do they have a pitching Do they stack 395 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 2: it like the Tigers will and just go to one 396 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 2: or two pitchers to beat the Royals? 397 00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 6: I mean, I am like full in for October. I 398 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,200 Speaker 6: will say pitching has been a bit of a challenge 399 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:52,960 Speaker 6: for the O's this year, but I think we're going 400 00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,320 Speaker 6: into the I think we're going in strong now and 401 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 6: just we're ready. I feel like they're ready for it. 402 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:00,119 Speaker 6: They just got to get through these few weeks. 403 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,200 Speaker 2: It's a joy to see Jim Palmer on their announcing 404 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,040 Speaker 2: team as well. It's great to see Julie Norman in 405 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:07,359 Speaker 2: the background for those of you on radio worldwide and 406 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,720 Speaker 2: on your commute across the nation. In the background of 407 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:14,399 Speaker 2: her London abode is an Orioles cap. There you go 408 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 2: from a few years ago, Julie Norman, thank you so 409 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 2: much your perspective there on your wheelhouse at UCL which 410 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:36,440 Speaker 2: is terrorism in the Middle East joining US now, synergy 411 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,120 Speaker 2: and a name that you'll know from their board. John 412 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 2: cartsonis has been with us before and shipping on the 413 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:46,160 Speaker 2: Red Sea and all the challenges. But today the chairman 414 00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 2: and the chief executive offers of Stemenos and Sinus joins 415 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:54,199 Speaker 2: us now from Synergy is Well, sir, I want to 416 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,359 Speaker 2: speak to what Danny Berger talked about, which is a 417 00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 2: technology difference of shipping and docks. And she said between 418 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 2: Amsterdam and America, is America behind in the technology of 419 00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:11,880 Speaker 2: loading and unloading ships? 420 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:17,840 Speaker 1: Well, yes, good morning everyone and nice to be here. Well, 421 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:21,040 Speaker 1: I must say that America is generally a little bit 422 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 1: behind in infrastructure altogether. So it's not just the loading 423 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 1: and unloading of you know, containers, but generally we feel 424 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,439 Speaker 1: and you know, we've been doing a lot of auto 425 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:38,040 Speaker 1: material sex sports from Baltimore especially, it's kind of a 426 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,840 Speaker 1: little bit behind. Yes, I would recommend, you know, and 427 00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 1: there's an upgrading on the infrastructure. 428 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:45,280 Speaker 7: The sooner the better. 429 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:49,119 Speaker 3: So a stomatics give us a sense of how these 430 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,199 Speaker 3: strikes they happened very rarely, although we had one in 431 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:53,720 Speaker 3: the West Coast a couple of years ago, but here 432 00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 3: on the East Coast it's been a long time. How 433 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,640 Speaker 3: does it impact the consumer and over what time frame typically. 434 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,480 Speaker 1: Well, I cannot think of a worse coincidence, to be honest, 435 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,679 Speaker 1: because it's not only the strike that is coming up 436 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,639 Speaker 1: and starting and it's going to cost the US economy 437 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:11,879 Speaker 1: anywhere between four and a half and seven and a 438 00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:17,120 Speaker 1: half billion dollars per week. It's also the Red Sea disruption, 439 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,720 Speaker 1: so you know, you have all the East Coast being 440 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,679 Speaker 1: affected because you know, the vast majority of the containers 441 00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:27,480 Speaker 1: are also affected by the Hoodies and the terrorists strikes 442 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,120 Speaker 1: in the Red Sea. So you know, having that which 443 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,120 Speaker 1: has to divert the ships around the Cape of Good 444 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:36,440 Speaker 1: Hope together with the strike, I believe that's kind of 445 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 1: a bad combination to happen, you know. But you know, 446 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:43,520 Speaker 1: to be honest, it's like pre election, So I believe 447 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 1: that the people feel that they have leverage to push 448 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 1: for certain things, and that's what's happening right now. 449 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:54,240 Speaker 2: The matters. If the experts in the pundits say we 450 00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 2: can shift from East coast Gulf Stroke coast strike bound 451 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:03,280 Speaker 2: a mare over to the Pacific coast, how do you 452 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 2: interpret that? Is that doable? 453 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,880 Speaker 1: Well, I believe that the railroad system is already kind 454 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,520 Speaker 1: of full, so I'm not so sure that this can 455 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 1: happen effectively, because you know, transporting almost half of your 456 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:20,520 Speaker 1: tu import capacity from one coast to the other and 457 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:22,880 Speaker 1: then putting it on a rail road, I don't think 458 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:26,000 Speaker 1: that's so visible. Maybe it is for a short period 459 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,119 Speaker 1: of time, but I don't think that's a solution that 460 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 1: it's going to work out in the long run. 461 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:30,240 Speaker 7: No way. 462 00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:33,200 Speaker 3: So what are you doing with your ships? I'm looking 463 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,960 Speaker 3: at your map here, and you've got some ships in 464 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:41,360 Speaker 3: the Atlantic Ocean, you know, coming or going towards the US. 465 00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:43,119 Speaker 3: What are you telling your fleet these days about the 466 00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 3: east coast of the US. 467 00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:48,440 Speaker 1: Well, we don't have any upcoming calls in the US 468 00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 1: right now, and the only ones we have is in Baltimore, 469 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,479 Speaker 1: which has not been affected. So we are outside of 470 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 1: this thing, and we're not being affected so far, and 471 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:00,440 Speaker 1: as longer believe that we will not be affected. 472 00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:04,120 Speaker 7: So we're good. I mean, synergy is good. 473 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,159 Speaker 1: And you know, I believe that the exports of coal 474 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 1: outside of Baltimore will continue, and that's not going to 475 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,200 Speaker 1: be you know, a more detrimental effect to the US. 476 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:17,920 Speaker 3: Economy, geopolitics. It's roaring its ugly head here, both in 477 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 3: the Baltics and in the Middle East. How does that 478 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:24,200 Speaker 3: affect global shipping and is the global shipping industry kind 479 00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:25,880 Speaker 3: of adjusted to it. 480 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 1: Well, I'm afraid to say that any global effect and 481 00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:36,239 Speaker 1: any bad geopolitical effect, it's unfortunately good for shipping. You know, 482 00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,439 Speaker 1: freight rage go up because you have longer trading routes. 483 00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,280 Speaker 1: Vessels need to divert and do longer distances, so the 484 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:45,600 Speaker 1: tone mail effect gets bigger and bigger. 485 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,160 Speaker 7: So by saying that the. 486 00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 1: Cost of the consumer, because transportation cost also increases, eventually 487 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,520 Speaker 1: that is paid by the consumer one way or another. 488 00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:57,960 Speaker 7: And the more it lasts, you have. 489 00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:01,560 Speaker 1: A cascading effect which unfortunately brings and files up the 490 00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:02,159 Speaker 1: whole thing. 491 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:02,800 Speaker 7: More and more. 492 00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 2: Stomatus. When I look at your income statements and the 493 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 2: guess forward into this year and next year, it sort 494 00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,440 Speaker 2: of looks like a meg seven income statement. You got 495 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:17,879 Speaker 2: an ebit. We're guessing sixty cents on the dollar your 496 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 2: net income. Maybe it's going to be twenty five, maybe 497 00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:25,200 Speaker 2: more cents on a dollar. It's a pretty profitable business. 498 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:29,480 Speaker 2: How much is labor at the docks part of the 499 00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,399 Speaker 2: expense of doing business? Do you look at it as 500 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 2: a major thing or is it an afterthought. 501 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:41,359 Speaker 1: Well, I believe that you're understating our future A figure 502 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:43,880 Speaker 1: is quite substantially. I think it's going to be much 503 00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:47,879 Speaker 1: higher than that. You know, dog works and we're not 504 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,520 Speaker 1: so dependent in the United States. But if we had 505 00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 1: to be dependent more in the United States, I would 506 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 1: say that, you know, it would have been much better 507 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,399 Speaker 1: for the business because the more delays that is causing, 508 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:00,680 Speaker 1: the better off it's for the freight rate. And I'm 509 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,520 Speaker 1: very sorry to say that, but things need to be resolved. 510 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,200 Speaker 1: You cannot have all the Middle Eastern and the fists 511 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:11,439 Speaker 1: and ports warning these kind of amazing capacities, and you know, 512 00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:14,639 Speaker 1: a spectacular country like the United States to be so 513 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,840 Speaker 1: far behind in infrastructure that needs to be in my 514 00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:18,719 Speaker 1: opinion fixed. 515 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 2: What do they need to fix in the United States 516 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 2: to catch up, whether it's shipbuilding, the rest of the 517 00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:28,840 Speaker 2: industry always says this to us, we're behind. In our 518 00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 2: parochial view, what's the number one thing America's got to 519 00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:33,159 Speaker 2: catch up on? 520 00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 7: Well, shipbuilding. 521 00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 1: I think we're going to be requiring hours and hours 522 00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:41,600 Speaker 1: to be talking about shipbuilding and where the United States, 523 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 1: How the United States compares with the farest and countries 524 00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,520 Speaker 1: and that's strategic and that's also military, so that needs 525 00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 1: a very careful consideration with whatever the administration may be. 526 00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:56,280 Speaker 1: But boart infrastructure and the railroads and the ability to 527 00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,440 Speaker 1: be exporting all these pressures, all materials that you have 528 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,800 Speaker 1: from the country and you know, being beneficial of the economy, 529 00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,480 Speaker 1: that in my opinion, should be number one priority. 530 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:09,640 Speaker 3: It's the honest your company, Synergy Maritime and Maritime United, 531 00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:11,760 Speaker 3: talk to us about the types of ships that are 532 00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,440 Speaker 3: in your fleet and what types of cargoes do you 533 00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 3: guys focus on. 534 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:16,320 Speaker 7: Thank you. 535 00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:21,240 Speaker 1: We're one of the biggest owners of the cape size 536 00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,120 Speaker 1: drive back vessels and we transport a lot of iron, 537 00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:27,480 Speaker 1: ore and coal. So our ships are pretty much required 538 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:31,000 Speaker 1: for the transportation needs of raw materials that are required 539 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:34,760 Speaker 1: for infrastructure, so in order to make steel globally, and 540 00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 1: that is required for everything you know, from bridges, tunnels, roads, 541 00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:43,040 Speaker 1: railroads or whatever you really need to steal. And that's 542 00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:46,040 Speaker 1: pretty much fundamental and that's what we do. We transport 543 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:51,640 Speaker 1: vast quantities of raw materials, tens of millions of tons 544 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:52,240 Speaker 1: a year. 545 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,200 Speaker 7: Of iron oracle and box side. 546 00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,719 Speaker 1: The last three years we have exported about two million 547 00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:03,280 Speaker 1: tons of coal from Baltimore to the Middle East and India, 548 00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:06,680 Speaker 1: so we have been quite big into sporting call outside 549 00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:07,240 Speaker 1: of Baltimore. 550 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,080 Speaker 2: Ours, sir, thank you so much for joining us today 551 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,600 Speaker 2: as we look at day one of the strike, including 552 00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:17,320 Speaker 2: at Baltimore's Samantis. The Santas joins us this morning from Synergy. 553 00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:20,800 Speaker 2: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best 554 00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also 555 00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:29,680 Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast 556 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:33,840 Speaker 2: channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from 557 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:37,160 Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in 558 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,920 Speaker 2: New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 559 00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:44,840 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, 560 00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:48,200 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.