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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Blueberg

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Speaker 1: DAYBAQ podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever

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Speaker 1: you listen. It's Monday, the seventh of July. I'm Caroline

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Speaker 1: Hepcat in London and.

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Speaker 2: I'm Stephen Caroline Brussels. Coming up today, Trump's tariff wall

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Speaker 2: hits the bricks. The US President announces an additional ten

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Speaker 2: percent levy on any country aligning with the Group of Nations.

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Speaker 1: OPEK plus agrees to pump even more oil into a

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Speaker 1: market that's widely expected to be oversupplied in the months ahead,

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Speaker 1: and after a.

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Speaker 2: Year of Kerstarmer as Prime Minister, UK businesses are struggling

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Speaker 2: to see what's pro business about labor.

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Speaker 3: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: US President Donald Trump says he will impose an additional

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Speaker 2: ten percent tariff on any country aligning itself with what

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Speaker 2: he called the anti American policies of bricks. The Group

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Speaker 2: of Nations, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa,

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Speaker 2: held a summit over the weekend where leaders condemned American

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Speaker 2: and Israeli attacks on Iran and called on Israel to

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Speaker 2: withdraw troops in the Gaza strip. Donald Trump's comments and

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Speaker 2: a truth social post come as the US prepares to

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Speaker 2: send tariff letters to dozens of countries in the coming days,

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Speaker 2: with the administration's ninety day pause on higher duties set

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Speaker 2: to expire on Wednesday. President Trump says most nations will

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Speaker 2: have a deal or letter by then. Here he is

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Speaker 2: speaking alongside Commerce Secretary Howard Loutnick.

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Speaker 4: They're going to be tariff's, They're going to be the tariff.

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Speaker 5: I think we have most countries done by July night.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, either a letter or a deal.

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Speaker 2: But they did, but they go into effect on August Furst.

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Speaker 2: Tariff's go into effect August first. But the President is

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Speaker 2: setting the raids and the deals right now. That's Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump and Howard Loutnik as the US Treasury Secretary's got

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Speaker 2: bess and signals that some countries without deals in play

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Speaker 2: could have more time to negotiate before the fresh tariffs

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Speaker 2: come into forest on the first of August.

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Speaker 1: EU based companies are now blocked from bidding for certain

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Speaker 1: medical device device procurement contracts over a value of six

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Speaker 1: point three million dollars as the trade standoff between the

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Speaker 1: EU and China escalates. China enacted the measures over the

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Speaker 1: weekend as a response to a similar planned EU ban.

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Speaker 1: The country also an outstandy dumping duties on European brandy

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Speaker 1: last week. The European Commission says that China's exports of

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Speaker 1: medical devices to the EU have more than doubled between

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Speaker 1: twenty fifteen and twenty twenty three. The moves mark a

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Speaker 1: hardening of both sides stances towards foreign goods as Beijing

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Speaker 1: is locked in a trade wall with the US.

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Speaker 2: Eighty two people are now known to have died in

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Speaker 2: Texas following flash floods across the US state. That includes

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Speaker 2: twenty seven people at a girls' summer camp in Kerr County,

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Speaker 2: which the which says the tragedy on Friday morning has

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Speaker 2: devastated their community. Ten children and a counselor at a

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Speaker 2: camp Mystic remain unaccounted for as rescuers frantically continued to

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Speaker 2: try to find survivors here. As Kerr County Sheriff Larry Litha,

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Speaker 2: there's over.

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Speaker 6: Four hundred first responders for more than twenty agencies that

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Speaker 6: are working in Kirk County. We have more than a

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Speaker 6: dozen canine working in and near the river. More than

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Speaker 6: one hundred air, water and ground vehicles are in the

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Speaker 6: field right now working on this search and rescue.

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Speaker 2: Kerr County Sheriff Larry Litha, speaking there as authorities, warned

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Speaker 2: the casualty count will climb as more rain as forecast,

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Speaker 2: increasing the risk of further flash floods in the coming days.

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Speaker 1: Oil prices have fallen after OPEC Plus agreed to a

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Speaker 1: bigger than expected production increase from next month. The group,

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Speaker 1: led by Saudi Arabia decided on Saturday to increase supply

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Speaker 1: by five hundred and forty eight thousand bowls per day.

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Speaker 1: Officials cited summer demand as one reason for their optimism

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Speaker 1: that the extra bowels could be absorbed by the market,

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Speaker 1: but lombard Odia's Asia CIO John Woods says he isn't

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Speaker 1: so sure.

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Speaker 4: With the growth outlook for developed and developing markets all

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Speaker 4: ticking lower, it's hard to see where that demand is

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Speaker 4: going to start accelerating materially. The only way therefore that

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Speaker 4: price can be influenced and manipulated is more through supply.

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Speaker 4: But as we saw in the recent announcement, there are

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Speaker 4: clearly motivations on behalf the saudis to boost.

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Speaker 1: Supply, lombard Odia's John Woods referring there to some of

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Speaker 1: the reasons for the supply increase, including punishing over production

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Speaker 1: by some members and clawing back market share from US

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Speaker 1: shale producers.

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Speaker 2: The UK government is talking down hopes of further benefits

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Speaker 2: changes as the Prime Minister care Starmer seeks to hold

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Speaker 2: the line on spending. Many Labor Party figures had hoped

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Speaker 2: that they could push the government into scrapping a cap

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Speaker 2: on claiming benefits from more than two children, but Education

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Speaker 2: Secretary Bridget phillips And said the U turn on disability

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Speaker 2: cuts would have fiscal consequences.

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Speaker 7: The decision we've taken in the last week has come

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Speaker 7: at a cost, yes, and the fiscal rules that we

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Speaker 7: have matter. We are seeing green shoots, of course. We

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Speaker 7: see record levels of business confidence. We've see more jobs

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Speaker 7: being created and we've seen interest rates come down. So

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Speaker 7: those are all big and important changes.

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Speaker 2: In contrast to Phillipson's words, a survey from the Confederation

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Speaker 2: of British Industry showed business optimism falling at its deepest

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Speaker 2: pace in September twenty twenty two. When liz Trust took

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Speaker 2: off US The rift inside the Labor Party over spending

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Speaker 2: has put the government on course to raise taxes or

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Speaker 2: borrow more in its upcoming budget.

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Speaker 1: In the US, Donald Trump has blasted ed On Musk's

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Speaker 1: bid to start a new political party as the feud

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Speaker 1: between the two former allies deepens. A day after the

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Speaker 1: US Person's tax cutting bill was signed into law, announced

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Speaker 1: that he would start a new America Party. Trump says

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Speaker 1: it's quote sad to watch Elon muskuld go completely off

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Speaker 1: the rails. Treasury sectory Scott Bessent told CNN the Tessa

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Speaker 1: CEO should stick to his business.

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Speaker 8: The principles of those were very popular. I think if

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Speaker 8: he looked at the polling, Elon was not. So. I

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Speaker 8: believe that the boards of directors at his various companies

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Speaker 8: wanted him to come back and run those companies, which

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Speaker 8: he is better at than anyone. So I imagine that

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Speaker 8: those board of directors did not like this announcement yesterday

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Speaker 8: and will be encouraging him to focus on his business activities,

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Speaker 8: not his political activities.

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Speaker 1: The negative reaction from those in the White House will

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Speaker 1: likely further isolate Musk from any contact with the Oval Office.

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Speaker 1: The development has further unnerved Tesla investors, with the company's

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Speaker 1: stock expected to take a hit when trading opens, despite

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Speaker 1: already falling twenty percent so far this year. So those

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Speaker 1: are a few of our top stories for you this morning.

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Speaker 1: In terms of the markets right now, the dollar is

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Speaker 1: down on the Dollar Spot Index this morning. The Bloomboag

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Speaker 1: Dollar Spot Index up though two tenths of one percent.

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Speaker 1: The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is in retreat, down seven

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Speaker 1: tenths of one percent.

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Speaker 3: In terms of stock futures.

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Speaker 1: Also for Europe, just slightly in the green, but we're

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Speaker 1: down four tenths of one percent for the S and

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Speaker 1: P five found out Emini futures.

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Speaker 3: We did see.

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Speaker 1: European equities retreat last week, both for the foot seat

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Speaker 1: and for the U of stock six hundred because of

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Speaker 1: more tariff uncertainty, and that is still lingering in markets

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Speaker 1: the unknown yet another deadline from the Trump administration. Ten

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Speaker 1: uere US treasury yields trading down two basis points of

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Speaker 1: four thirty three, and all prices break through down four

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Speaker 1: tenths this morning.

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Speaker 3: Those are the markets.

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Speaker 2: In a moment, We'll bring you the latest on Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump's tariff threats, plus look at how business leaders in

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Speaker 2: the UK are feeling about the labor government one year in.

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Speaker 2: But another story that caughtter eye this morning, Karlyn, do

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Speaker 2: you actually know what rococo is? It's one of those

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Speaker 2: words that gets bandied about a lot. But didn't realize

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Speaker 2: until this morning that I didn't really know what it meant.

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Speaker 1: I think I would know when I see it, And

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Speaker 1: to be honest, I love it. And I was reminded

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Speaker 1: of it recently on a gallery visit that there is

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Speaker 1: actually even an English or cocoa style, even though it's

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Speaker 1: largely European.

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Speaker 2: Yeahsi pre revolutionary France. I learned from reading Fergus of

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Speaker 2: Sullivan's piece this morning about how essentially, because it's a

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Speaker 2: word that's been bandied about a lot, described Donald Trump's style.

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Speaker 2: In fact, Kate Wagner of the blog mcmanchon Hell when

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Speaker 2: I need out to my reading list dubbed the presidential

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Speaker 2: look regional car dealership rococo.

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Speaker 3: But in case you're having.

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Speaker 2: This, isn't it, In case you're diving into this, Fergus

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Speaker 2: has done that for us, essentially, and so that we

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Speaker 2: shouldn't let a polarizing political figure malign the good name

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Speaker 2: of this frequently understood European style. It is something that has,

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Speaker 2: as you say, association for all of us in terms

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Speaker 2: of being perhaps a little bit over the top, but

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Speaker 2: very guilded. And he fascinating allows us of the Gilded

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Speaker 2: Age style in the US and how all of this

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Speaker 2: essentially when he tried to put it together to inform

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Speaker 2: what Donald Trump's design style is because it is his own,

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Speaker 2: how it's perhaps better to look to the Gilded Age

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Speaker 2: in the US than to Rococo for hints of where

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Speaker 2: his inspirations come from.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a really interesting read. It's sort of architecture

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Speaker 1: art meets you know, what is the kind of modern

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Speaker 1: presidency now in the US. Because the interesting thing also

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Speaker 1: is that that President Trump is renovating, has renovated the

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Speaker 1: White House actually again in this second administration. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: looking at the kind of style and what it means

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Speaker 1: in the historical context I thought was so interesting.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and you can read that piece I'm Bloomberg dot

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Speaker 2: com or put a link to it in our podcast

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Speaker 2: show notes. Let's bring it the latest now on trade

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Speaker 2: tariffs and Donald Trump has threatened an additional levy on

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Speaker 2: countries that supports what he calls the anti American policies

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Speaker 2: of the BRICKS group. Our news desk editor Jill Lisas

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Speaker 2: joins us Now for more. Jill, who exactly is Trump

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Speaker 2: targeting with this latest threat and why?

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Speaker 9: Well, Steven, I don't think that we've got a ton

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Speaker 9: of information yet, and Trump has notably not exactly elaborated

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Speaker 9: on what he means by anti American policies. That being said,

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Speaker 9: I would say that if you're looking at BRICKS, you

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Speaker 9: know Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, of you know,

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Speaker 9: many of its sort of associate nations, I would I'm

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Speaker 9: really interested in what this may mean for talks with India,

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Speaker 9: for example. I mean, the Indian government has been pretty

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Speaker 9: aggressively trying to nail down a trade deal with the

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Speaker 9: United States ahead of this July ninth deadline, that's the

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Speaker 9: ninety days past Trump's Liberation Day. On those reciprocal tariffs

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Speaker 9: that he was talking about, that seems to be one

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Speaker 9: of the more interesting ones here now, I mean an

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Speaker 9: additional ten percent tariff. Again, not entirely clear which types

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Speaker 9: of policies he's talking about, though, I would point out

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Speaker 9: that you know, this weekend BRICKS leaders were meeting. They

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Speaker 9: did US and Israeli attacks on Iran. You know, I

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Speaker 9: don't know if that's factoring in. And then I would

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Speaker 9: also say that, you know, fairly, you know, in the past,

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Speaker 9: Trump has threatened to slap you know, Levi's as high

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Speaker 9: as one hundred percent on bricks if they ditched the

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Speaker 9: US dollar and bi lateral trades. So I'm not sure

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Speaker 9: if that factors in as well. But I think certainly

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Speaker 9: a really interesting development to look up for. And again

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Speaker 9: I'm really interested in how exactly this may weigh on

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Speaker 9: India for example.

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Speaker 1: Yes, that is interesting, but then there's also the idea

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Speaker 1: of another deadline. We heard from both the Treasury sectually

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Speaker 1: and the Commerce sectually over the weekend, so they pointed

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Speaker 1: to August first as perhaps more important in terms of

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Speaker 1: being a deadline than the ninth of July at time

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Speaker 1: it deals.

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Speaker 3: So is it an extension or not?

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Speaker 9: I mean, I think that at this point, you know,

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Speaker 9: the Trump administration probably reluctant to say that this is

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Speaker 9: you know, any kind of a muddling of the deadline

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Speaker 9: or an extension of the deadline. They still have said

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Speaker 9: that they want to get everything sorted by July ninth.

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Speaker 9: But yeah, I mean, the fact that nothing's kicking in

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Speaker 9: until August first, does indicate that maybe there's some time

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Speaker 9: to you know, continue to negotiate over the next couple

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Speaker 9: of weeks. That being said, I mean, the way that

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Speaker 9: Trump works is obviously a mystery and many much.

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Speaker 3: Of the time to many of us.

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Speaker 9: I mean, it was just last week that he you know,

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Speaker 9: proposed this idea of sending out letters to various nations

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Speaker 9: with you know, specific with specific trade you know, tariff

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Speaker 9: numbers on there. He's did say that that continues to

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Speaker 9: be a factor, that he's going to be sending out

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Speaker 9: letters over the next couple of days. So I do

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Speaker 9: think that it kind of opens up this idea of

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Speaker 9: you know, if you are a country that receives one

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Speaker 9: of those letters, does that still mean that you've got

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Speaker 9: time to negotiate ahead of August first? I think, you know,

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Speaker 9: as with a lot of things Donald Trump, you know,

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Speaker 9: anything kind of goes in Trump's world. He really likes

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Speaker 9: to make deals, He really wants.

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Speaker 3: To come out on top.

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Speaker 9: So I do think just that sort of that letter

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Speaker 9: component to this, does you know, open the door of

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Speaker 9: you know, maybe that's a final rate for some of

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Speaker 9: these places, but maybe Trump thinks that, you know, if

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Speaker 9: they negotiate and whatever he determines to be good faith,

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Speaker 9: there could still be so negotiations beyond July ninth, up

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Speaker 9: to that August first deadline.

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Speaker 2: And Scott Baston's also hinting over the weekend they are

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Speaker 2: expecting a flurry of deals to be done in the

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Speaker 2: coming days as well. What are the key negotiations to

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Speaker 2: watch then, as we're getting towards the at least first

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Speaker 2: of those deadlines.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, there's a few that I'm really looking out for.

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Speaker 9: I think India, as we've previously discussed, I really think,

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Speaker 9: you know, that's one that we could potentially see some

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Speaker 9: movement on fairly soon. I'm also looking out for, you know,

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Speaker 9: some others in Southeast Asia. I mean, you know, we

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Speaker 9: did get at least you know, Trump saying there was

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Speaker 9: a deal with Vietnam last week, although we still haven't

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Speaker 9: seen a term sheet for that one yet. So that's,

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Speaker 9: you know, one that I'm looking out for. Cambodia suggested

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Speaker 9: that they've reached some kind of an agreement with the

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Speaker 9: US governments, although again still waiting for further details there.

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Speaker 9: And then the ones that I'm really curious about to

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Speaker 9: you know, for the North Asia or South Korea. In Japan,

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Speaker 9: I think Japan in particular really curious of the auto tariffs,

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Speaker 9: those those sectoral tariffs and autoparts has been and a

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Speaker 9: really big sort of sticking point with Japan and the

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Speaker 9: US on this one. Trump is kind of indicated that,

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Speaker 9: you know, that's not something that's necessarily up for negotiation.

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Speaker 9: The Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba, he's recently speaking saying that

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Speaker 9: the country's prepared for all possible tariff scenarios. It does

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Speaker 9: seem like they've had some difficulty getting something over the lines.

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Speaker 9: So I think anything that's coming, particularly on Japan, if

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Speaker 9: they're able to reach a deal, would be something really

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Speaker 9: really curious to watch.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Jill, thank you so much for being with us

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Speaker 1: this morning on newsdesk, Editor Jill Desis, thank you well.

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Speaker 2: When the Labor Party came to power in the UK

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Speaker 2: year ago, business leaders decided to give Keir Starmer and

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Speaker 2: Rachel Reeves a chance to forge a new and stronger relationship.

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Speaker 2: But the past twelve months have seen tax hikes on employers,

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Speaker 2: market jitters, and recent talk to Britain's biggest listed company, AstraZeneca,

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Speaker 2: might defect from the London Stock Exchange. So how should

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Speaker 2: we think about labor's relationship with business? Now our UK

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Speaker 2: Economy Reporter arena and Gal joins us now for more arena.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Now, Labor courted business a long time running

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Speaker 2: up to last year's election, but how much of things

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Speaker 2: soured in the past twelve months.

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Speaker 5: Morning, Stephen. Well, as you said, business.

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Speaker 10: Leaders were ready to give labor a chance to forge

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Speaker 10: a strong relationship one year ago, you know, after the

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Speaker 10: chaos of Brexit and the tour years. But that optimism

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Speaker 10: was really quickly replaced with warnings of job cuts and

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Speaker 10: more businesses going bust. And that was after the government

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Speaker 10: lifted employment taxes in its first budget. So that sentiment

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Speaker 10: that labor is not pro business was then exacerbated by

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Speaker 10: talks that Astroseneca.

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Speaker 5: As you mentioned, my move is primarily.

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Speaker 10: Listening to New York, but it was really that budget

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Speaker 10: that was the big reset moment. It was a shot

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Speaker 10: move that blindsided CEOs who had taught they had a

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Speaker 10: good relationship with labor up to that point.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and so then the current status of the relationship,

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Speaker 1: I mean, how annoyed are they?

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Speaker 10: Well, that increases employment taxes, it's led to large scale

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Speaker 10: job cuts.

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Speaker 5: Businesses have cut payrolls.

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Speaker 10: By a quarter of a million since October and also

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Speaker 10: delayed investments. That's still the big pain point. And last

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Speaker 10: week's market turmoil following racial Reason's emotional appearance in Parliament,

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Speaker 10: Prime Minister Cure Starmer's moved to water down planned welfare reforms.

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Speaker 10: These were seen as new signs that the party is

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Speaker 10: walking on ten ice with businesses. However, there are some

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Speaker 10: signs that things are starting to improve. We had, you know,

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Speaker 10: the long awaited industrial strategy launched by the government, the

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Speaker 10: Grand Vision for Growing the Economy, which was commended by

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Speaker 10: business leaders for taking a long term view. And then

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Speaker 10: we had some closely watched surveys showing that you know,

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Speaker 10: private sector activity expanded as the fastest space in nine months.

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Speaker 10: And then we have hiring intentions up again, which of

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Speaker 10: these are very positive signs.

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Speaker 5: And of course the.

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Speaker 10: Tariff damage is less than feared so far, so that's

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Speaker 10: one to watch out.

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Speaker 2: Thinking about where things go from here in I mean,

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Speaker 2: one of the biggest concerns that business leaders have now

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Speaker 2: are they worried about that their relationship could get worse

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Speaker 2: with the government.

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Speaker 10: Well, you know, the biggest conscerners be red tape, non Doms,

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Speaker 10: migration tax. You know, Astraseneca, they've been very vocal about

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Speaker 10: the frustration where the UK's regulatory regime for medicines, and

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Speaker 10: you know in January they abandoned plans to invest in

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Speaker 10: the UK vaccine manufacturing plant.

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Speaker 5: Then we have Labor's abolition of the non.

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Speaker 10: Doms tax regime, which led to many business leaders leaving

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Speaker 10: the country altogether, the migration rules changes. You know, Stummer

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Speaker 10: has claimmed down on visas to counter the thread from

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Speaker 10: the UK Reform Party on the right, but that's made

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Speaker 10: it more difficult for businesses to source the right talent.

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Speaker 10: And then of course tax there are still worries about

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Speaker 10: what will happen at the next budget and whether Labor

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Speaker 10: will raise taxes on business.

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Speaker 5: Again, that being said, you know the relation, there.

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Speaker 10: Are still signs that the relationship could be ended.

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Speaker 5: It's never going back to where it was last year.

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Speaker 10: Businesses have learned their lesson, but you know, the key

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Speaker 10: is for Labor to make businesses feel like their views

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Speaker 10: are understood and taken into account, not just listen to

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Speaker 10: and then ignored.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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Speaker 2: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

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Speaker 3: I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carroll.

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Speaker 2: Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you

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Speaker 2: Break Europe