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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I can just about that action

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Speaker 1: all right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go throwing spect We're sitting up a cash

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Speaker 2: to stop and that's.

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Speaker 3: All we see. Most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 3: they go swin.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 3: This is the ultimate combine you want to and we

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Speaker 3: are under way. What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 1: Chris Raven, joined by my colleague, the one and only

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Speaker 1: the odds maker, Action Networks Director of Predictive Analytics, mister

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Speaker 1: Sean Kerner. We're back for part two, sewn. How are

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Speaker 1: you feeling pretty good?

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Speaker 2: Just you know, chilling, having a good summer. How about

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Speaker 2: you doing well?

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Speaker 1: Doing well?

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Speaker 3: Just excited to talk some more betting with you.

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Speaker 1: And uh we're starting to inch or the NFL season slowly,

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Speaker 1: so that's always fun, yes, sir, So we're gonna be

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Speaker 1: talking more sports betting best practices here. Be sure to

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Speaker 1: check part one of our sports Betting Best Practices episode.

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Speaker 1: If you miss that, we'll get right back into it.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about middles. You know, when you have a

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Speaker 1: chance to middle a bet, should you take it? Is

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Speaker 1: there an is there an and is there an ideal

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Speaker 1: scenario where you are looking to middle or do these

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Speaker 1: opportunities just kind of pop up? And by middle I

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Speaker 1: mean taking both sides of the same bet at different lines.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely in the ballpark of cashing out hedging, which

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Speaker 2: I know you don't like to do. Uh. But I've said,

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Speaker 2: I've talked about this in our discord a bunch of

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Speaker 2: times that I try not to middle that much because

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Speaker 2: you know, a lot of times if I put a

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Speaker 2: prop out there, the line will move quite a bit.

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Speaker 2: And if I get in the business of middling, you know,

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Speaker 2: I don't want to look like I'm trying to manipulate

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Speaker 2: the market to just middle everything, So I try to

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Speaker 2: stay away from it. There was a good example recently

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Speaker 2: where I did middle and I made a ton of

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Speaker 2: cents I had early in the morning. I did my

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Speaker 2: initial projections, and I saw a ton of value on

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Speaker 2: Eduardo Rodriguez picture for the Diamondbacks to go under five

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Speaker 2: and a half strikeouts, made the bet did something else.

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Speaker 2: Four hours later, I came back and the official lineup

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Speaker 2: was out and it was awful. It was terrible, like

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Speaker 2: they were going to strike out a lot more than

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Speaker 2: I expected, and his prop was down to four and

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Speaker 2: a half. I was showing a ton of value on

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Speaker 2: over four and a half at that point, so at

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Speaker 2: both points in time, I was showing value on the

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Speaker 2: opposite side of each other. So I saw that and

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Speaker 2: I said, I hate doing this, but the most likely

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Speaker 2: outcome is five strikeouts exactly. I had it around like

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Speaker 2: a twenty five percent chance. So I said, this is

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Speaker 2: a rare time. I'm going to middle this bet, and

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Speaker 2: so I took the over four and a half strikeouts,

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Speaker 2: and sure enough he finished with five. So I hit.

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Speaker 2: But that was an example of like I was showing

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Speaker 2: a ton of value at the time on under five

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Speaker 2: and a half and then later on showing value the

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Speaker 2: other way just because of you know, some news, the

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Speaker 2: official lineup was different than I had projected. So I

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Speaker 2: think when it comes to middling, you want to make

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Speaker 2: sure that you're showing value on both sides. That's the point.

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Speaker 2: So I don't do it to get cute and you know,

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Speaker 2: try to just you know, raise my ROI like it's

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Speaker 2: like investing in bonds, like safe way of trading. I

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Speaker 2: only do it in situations where something happened where at

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Speaker 2: one point I was showing value on one side and

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Speaker 2: another time I was showing value on the other side.

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Speaker 2: So I tend to stay away from it because again,

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Speaker 2: I don't want to look like I'm trying to manipulate

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Speaker 2: the market in any way. But there are some situations

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Speaker 2: where I think it makes sense. You could also do

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Speaker 2: it if if a book's offering Jamior Gibbs fifteen and

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Speaker 2: a half Rush attempts and another book is offering him

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Speaker 2: at thirteen and a half. I've done that where I

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Speaker 2: just take the under fifteen and a half over thirteen

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Speaker 2: and a half because two Russia attempts is just massive,

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Speaker 2: massive value. So there's there's times I just make both

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Speaker 2: bets at the same time, and I'm upfront about it.

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Speaker 2: So you can certainly do that as a way of

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Speaker 2: like arbing, but I think it's something I tend to

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Speaker 2: do less often, because, like you said, when it comes

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Speaker 2: to cashing out and stuff, if you have value, you

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Speaker 2: just stick with it. You're gonna make more money in

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Speaker 2: the long run when you do things like that as

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Speaker 2: opposed to getting cute and middling. Unless there's there's a

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Speaker 2: rare scenario like I laid out where it makes.

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Speaker 1: Sense, yeah, generally to know for me as well, just

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Speaker 1: because I think there's there's just better ways to kind

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Speaker 1: of allocate your bank rode generally, and even in the

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Speaker 1: middle situation. So you know, let's say like let's say,

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Speaker 1: you know, the rush attempt situation where you can talk about, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take over thirteen and a half under fifteen

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Speaker 1: and a half. You know, so fourteen and fifteen you

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Speaker 1: have two different outcome that you would win both bets.

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Speaker 1: But a lot of times, because there's so many markets available,

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Speaker 1: you can actually just bet like an exact fourteen carries

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Speaker 1: or fifteen carries and it probably get some outrageous plus

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Speaker 1: money or at some decent plus money because it's an exact.

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Speaker 1: And so I feel like you could control your bets

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Speaker 1: a little more that way and get a little more upside.

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Speaker 1: So that's that's a scenario where actually would take the

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Speaker 1: books like long you know, longer juice odds. Because the

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Speaker 1: thing about the middling is, for example, let's talk about

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Speaker 1: NFL bets. When a team covers, it usually covers by

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Speaker 1: on average, and this changes from year to ear So

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Speaker 1: don't quote me on this, but it about six seven

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Speaker 1: points like a score. That's where teasers kind of came from.

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Speaker 1: It was, you know, the next like deviation over. So

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Speaker 1: it's not like every time a team is covering, you know,

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Speaker 1: they're they're gonna fall in that range. You know over

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Speaker 1: the long term, yes, maybe they should. And but that

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Speaker 1: that also assumes like your projection has to be a

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Speaker 1: lot more infallil right, because like now, it's not just

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Speaker 1: like if you're just if you have over for a

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Speaker 1: player and you haven't projected like two carries over and

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Speaker 1: a carryover, it doesn't matter if your projection was like

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Speaker 1: way underestimating him and he got like twenty carries over,

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Speaker 1: or if it was overestimating but you got lucky. It's

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Speaker 1: just you only needed that projection and lead you to

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Speaker 1: that one bet.

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Speaker 3: But now you're.

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Speaker 1: Talking about, oh I needed to like my projection is

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Speaker 1: this and the lines fall within the middle of this.

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Speaker 1: You need your projection to be a lot more precise

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Speaker 1: and in that specific instance. Right, So that's why I

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Speaker 1: kind of lose a lot of the value of it.

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Speaker 1: Like between like even that just that thought, I could

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Speaker 1: have just been betting on something else right now, Like yeah,

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Speaker 1: the person is like, I mean, what do you think

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Speaker 1: what do you think, Yeah, well, I think when you're right,

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Speaker 1: when it's if a book that's the thing is not

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Speaker 1: a lot of books offer that market for like Exact Russia, Temph.

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Speaker 2: You know, when it comes to Gibbs and this is

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Speaker 2: in that situation, I was projecting him for exactly like

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Speaker 2: fourteen points too, so I was like literally in the

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Speaker 2: middle of both books. So I thought, I.

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Speaker 1: Mean, you can do that, Sean. You are the king

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Speaker 1: of proft, right, So there's like if they're not following you,

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Speaker 1: maybe like a couple other people in the industry, you're

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Speaker 1: gonna get trouble doing that.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think that was the game where Montgomery tweaked

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Speaker 2: his knee, so Gibbs had like twenty plus carriers. But

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Speaker 2: I digress. It's yeah, middling. It depends also on the

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Speaker 2: type of market, like the variance involved in it things

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Speaker 2: like that, where most times it does doesn't make sense,

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Speaker 2: But when it comes to a market where it's a

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Speaker 2: little bit more precise, precise like receptions or things like that,

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Speaker 2: I think it makes more sense. So again, it's one

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Speaker 2: of those things that's a case by case basis, And

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Speaker 2: for Raybonn, if I understand correctly ninety nine percent of

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Speaker 2: the time, it's a no for you.

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Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I would say the one yes for me,

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Speaker 1: and I don't know, like you could tell me if

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Speaker 1: you agree. If a football an NFL line start it

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Speaker 1: out and it was one team favored by like a

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Speaker 1: like a field goal or more, and then the line

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Speaker 1: flipped all the way to the other side to this,

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Speaker 1: So I guess if I got teaser value a normal

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Speaker 1: line movement, I would do it. It's essentially what I'm saying, Like,

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Speaker 1: if I got six or more on an NFL line movement,

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Speaker 1: I would try to middle it. But that really everything

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Speaker 1: else is like if I'm betting it over, which is

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Speaker 1: rare anyway, I'm I'd probably rather later it and make

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Speaker 1: my profits that way then trying to catch the middle.

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Speaker 1: And if I'm going under, then I mean, there's no

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Speaker 1: fun in me betting on something.

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Speaker 3: Positive to happen, you know, I got to revel in

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Speaker 3: the negativity.

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Speaker 2: Very true. Yeah, Yeah, I think that makes sense. And yeah,

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Speaker 2: in that case, maybe like Pastor Mahomes is ruled out

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Speaker 2: right in the line. Yeah, so you have this value,

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Speaker 2: but then you're like, well, the market's kind of overreacting

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Speaker 2: to that. You know, you have to I for me,

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Speaker 2: it's like I have to make a case for both sides.

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Speaker 2: So yes, it's a it's rare, very pacific examples, so

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Speaker 2: it's not often, but there there are some times where

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Speaker 2: it happens.

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Speaker 1: All right, here's one and it's kind of one of

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Speaker 1: these betting cliches or I guess miss you could say,

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Speaker 1: but uh, there's I guess there's a thought out there

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Speaker 1: that the bigger the game, the tighter the lines, sean

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Speaker 1: should better themselves, you think, trying to emphasize betting on

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Speaker 1: fewer big games and seek value elsewhere. And this is

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Speaker 1: an interesting topic I have. I'll weigh in on this as well,

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Speaker 1: but curious to see your thoughts.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is kind of a mixed bag in a

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Speaker 2: case by case basis, where it's it's somewhat true. You know,

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Speaker 2: bigger games are going to have more handle, so in

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Speaker 2: theory that that should make the market sharper, but you know,

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Speaker 2: if you think about the super Bowl, it's it's actually

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Speaker 2: attracting a lot more public action as well, which can

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Speaker 2: actually inflate certain markets and create value that that you

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Speaker 2: wouldn't have. And just you know, normal regular season game

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Speaker 2: where it's you know, maybe more Sharp's betting on it,

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Speaker 2: so you in that In that situation, I think, yeah,

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Speaker 2: it can create certain markets where you know there's even

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Speaker 2: more value because of it. But you know, I think

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Speaker 2: it does make sense where one market where I've consistently

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Speaker 2: found value is like NFL preseason. Nobody takes it seriously,

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Speaker 2: there's not much handle, but I'm one of the few

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Speaker 2: people that's you know, grinding up projection things like that.

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Speaker 2: So I think it's easier to find edges in markets

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Speaker 2: like that where maybe there's there's less handle, less people

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Speaker 2: paying attention. So you can make a case that, yeah,

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Speaker 2: the smaller the game, the leverage of the game, you know,

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Speaker 2: the easier it is to beat. But like I said,

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Speaker 2: games that drive more action are going to have more

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Speaker 2: public actions. So I think it's a case by case basis,

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Speaker 2: and I wouldn't say that there's one way to go

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Speaker 2: about it. So if if you're you know, handicapping a game,

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Speaker 2: I don't think it matters. I think any game you

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Speaker 2: can find an edge. You know, if you're a sharp

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Speaker 2: better you have project so you know how to read

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Speaker 2: the market. I think there's going to be an edge,

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Speaker 2: whether it's you know, a high leverage game or a

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Speaker 2: low leverage game like a preseason game. So I think

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Speaker 2: it depends in kind of both cases.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I have noticed it come into play

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Speaker 1: a couple of times, so I'll kind of point those out.

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Speaker 1: So for me, ultimately, I think that the bigger the game,

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Speaker 1: the tighter line applies to certain kind of lines, Right,

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Speaker 1: Like the Super bowls points spread is not just gonna

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Speaker 1: be like like if you're on if you're taking odds

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Speaker 1: for like, what's the worst NFL line of the season.

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Speaker 1: The super Bowl points spread is not going to be

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Speaker 1: among those games. You know, it's gonna be some random

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Speaker 1: six game, and and so because there's so much action

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Speaker 1: and things like that, the biggest markets.

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Speaker 3: Which are usually the point spread, there's not gonna be.

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Speaker 1: But I will say this, there's usually a what would

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Speaker 1: you call it, a kind of into her like her mentality.

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Speaker 1: You see certain lines kind of prop wise or other,

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Speaker 1: going certain directions, and everyone's kind of decided on a

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Speaker 1: certain narrative like, oh, well, this this team has to

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Speaker 1: bounce back, or this player is gonna have a big game,

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Speaker 1: or he's been struggling all series or all season, so

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Speaker 1: he's gonna have a bad game, and you know, there's

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Speaker 1: kind of these things kind of decided, and a lot

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Speaker 1: of times you can you can make a lot of

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Speaker 1: profit by just going against those and kind of fading those, Like, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know this this Thunder series is fresh on.

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Speaker 3: My mind, so I'll go back. It's not a Ni

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Speaker 3: Smith example this time, I promised. But uh so Cason.

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Speaker 1: Wallace, who is a Thunder kind of start sometimes wing player.

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Speaker 1: He he was over the series first four games in

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Speaker 1: three pointers made. And you know, there's no such thing

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Speaker 1: as due in in embedding, but there's just the like

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Speaker 1: he he wasn't due. He was he was just not

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Speaker 1: supposed to have zero threes Like that was like he's

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Speaker 1: just supposed to revert to his new natural mean of

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Speaker 1: like one three. So uh like that like the more

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Speaker 1: he wouldn't like after you know, after game four, I

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Speaker 1: was like, all right, I'm definitely betting his threes for

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Speaker 1: game five. And it's not just it's not like he's

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Speaker 1: doing is because the more you miss, the lesser defense

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Speaker 1: is going to pay attention to you, and either your

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Speaker 1: shots are going to get So there's like this natural

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Speaker 1: reversion to the mean kind of coming in and but

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Speaker 1: there's good value on his number because it's it's a

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Speaker 1: high we televised game. He got knocked out of the

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Speaker 1: starting lineup, and so everyone's just supering like, oh, he's

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Speaker 1: he might get bet she might even play in this series,

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Speaker 1: in this game five. So you're getting like that's the

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Speaker 1: way a big game. You could still get a lot

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Speaker 1: of wine value by just going against the herd. But

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Speaker 1: I will say this, statistically speaking, one pm Eastern ten

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Speaker 1: AM Pacific window NFL games have shown an edge just

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Speaker 1: points spread total wise, if you go back on our

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Speaker 1: bet Labs data over the past two decades, little more

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Speaker 1: than that, I think. And I think the reason is

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Speaker 1: because and I've seen it in props. We don't we

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Speaker 1: can't track that as closely with as larger data set,

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Speaker 1: but seeing it in props as well. For what is

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Speaker 1: worth is I think because there's that's the slate where

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Speaker 1: the most games are, so the book has to juggle

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Speaker 1: just more lines period. So a lot of times in Sean,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you've noticed this, but a lot

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Speaker 1: of times find the best props are in that one

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Speaker 1: PM window because there's usually like eight to ten games,

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Speaker 1: and I just don't like, like, let's say, Sean kerner

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Speaker 1: posts like a line a prop in like the one

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Speaker 1: PM window, there's other there's just more other props there

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Speaker 1: because it's like the book, it's not as always, like

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Speaker 1: as quick or there's just more options. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if one or the other makes it so, but I

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Speaker 1: do notice that there tends to be an edge in

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Speaker 1: those games.

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Speaker 3: Is that is that something you've noticed at all?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, definitely, And I think you're right. It's just

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Speaker 2: it's a lot to handle. And yeah, that that kind

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Speaker 2: of brings me back to the point you were making

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Speaker 2: with with like the super Bowl, where the point spread

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Speaker 2: that's going to be one of the most accurate numbers

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Speaker 2: on earth because there's so much money on it. We

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Speaker 2: know so much about both teams at the time. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: that market the big Game, it's going to be hard

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Speaker 2: to find value on that. But the super Bowl draws

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Speaker 2: out new markets like national Anthem, like punter props, where

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Speaker 2: you and I every year we have our own projections

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Speaker 2: on it. The book, they don't really have, you know,

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Speaker 2: a whole year to kind of assess where the market's at.

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Speaker 2: The market has no clue what it's doing, so it's

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Speaker 2: easier to find value in those because we're waiting for

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Speaker 2: like start it, where is it June seventeenth. I'm already

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Speaker 2: waiting for the punter props for the Super Bowl right now.

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Speaker 2: So it's something that they don't have the time or

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Speaker 2: bandwidth to handle. And like you said earlier, Vegas doesn't

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Speaker 2: always know. Sometimes they make markets where they have no clue.

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Speaker 2: They're just trying to get action. So the Big Game,

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Speaker 2: while the point spread is very sharp, it's hard to beat,

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Speaker 2: there are other markets that are kind of created because

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Speaker 2: the game is so big, that are offer a ton

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Speaker 2: of value. So that's just an example of like the

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Speaker 2: Big Game itself has a mixed bag of beatable and

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Speaker 2: kind of unbeatable markets when it comes to that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so and I guess to dive into even a

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Speaker 1: little more so a lot of other projections and thus

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Speaker 1: other markets and lines out there are derived directly from

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Speaker 1: the point spread.

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Speaker 3: Like Sean and you and I know.

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Speaker 1: This, like well, a lot of times we'll be doing

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Speaker 1: top down projections, which means we kind of project the game,

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Speaker 1: we project the score of that game, which is to

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Speaker 1: spread the total, and then there's a lot of other

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Speaker 1: things we can derive calculate like that are just derivative

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Speaker 1: of those calculations that will go into other things. Those markets,

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Speaker 1: those are all the markets that exist, you know, every

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Speaker 1: week as well. And then it's just is that market beatable?

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Speaker 1: You know, like, is there some type of inherent flaw

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Speaker 1: to that methodology that's not always going to get the

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Speaker 1: best projection versus treating that market as an individual market.

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Speaker 1: And that's why with player props you could see it

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Speaker 1: even more because a lot of times it's you can't

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Speaker 1: just take, like one, you could derive certain player projections

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Speaker 1: from the score, but like you know, football is more

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Speaker 1: than touchdowns, and you know, you know, if you're taking

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Speaker 1: yards from points, that's gonna there's always gonna be some.

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Speaker 3: Some gray area.

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Speaker 1: There's same thing in basketball with points and whatnot. So

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Speaker 1: it's like, for example, in basketball, a market that I've

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Speaker 1: found is kind of not.

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Speaker 3: Always as sharp is the turnovers market.

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Speaker 1: And that's because like, regardless of what you're doing, like

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Speaker 1: because now you got the the what do you got

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Speaker 1: the rebound chances NBA trackstat you got the potential assists.

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Speaker 1: I know that's a big one for you, Jean uh So,

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Speaker 1: but but these are getting sharper, right, But turnovers, it's

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Speaker 1: still it's still like a lot to It's still tough

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Speaker 1: to kind of figure with the score itself because you know,

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Speaker 1: an individual players turnover, he could get less minutes and

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Speaker 1: be doing poorly and that's why he goes under. He's

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Speaker 1: turnover mount you know. So so it's like it's a

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Speaker 1: little more nuanced to it. And those are the ones

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Speaker 1: that you're gonna generally see more value on. I know,

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Speaker 1: Sean that you've done a lot of work in the

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Speaker 1: tackles market. Oh yeah, because that's a market that it

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Speaker 1: is common, it pops up every week. But it's just

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Speaker 1: harder to like take a score and you know, it's

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Speaker 1: not just like touchdowns or it's like all right, this

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Speaker 1: because this team is projected to score twenty four points,

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Speaker 1: they're going to have like two point three touchdown whatever

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Speaker 1: the number is, you know what I mean.

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Speaker 3: It's a little.

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Speaker 1: More nuanced to like a tackle prop or an assist

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Speaker 1: prop or a sack prop even And so those markets, yeah,

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Speaker 1: those are the kind of markets that you generally want

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Speaker 1: to target where by having an accurate spread in total

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Speaker 1: that doesn't necessarily mean that everything else is accurate. That

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Speaker 1: those are the kind of markets that I find where

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Speaker 1: you're gonna find the edge.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you got to be careful. I could talk about

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Speaker 2: tackle props for hours, so we won't go down that route.

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Speaker 2: But I think you're absolutely right, Like a lot of

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Speaker 2: these are kind of derivative driven. So the lesson you

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Speaker 2: get away with that, the markets that are new word

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Speaker 2: that have less advanced data, where you think you have

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Speaker 2: a perceived edge, Yeah, those are the markets that I

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Speaker 2: think you're going to find the most value on Before

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Speaker 2: you know. There might be some metric where it's easier

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Speaker 2: to project turnovers or something like that, but I always

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Speaker 2: found you have to kind of evolve and get ahead

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Speaker 2: of the curve when it comes to things. So it

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Speaker 2: looks like you've been doing that with NBA turnovers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah exactly, And like, yeah, that market could it

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Speaker 1: could smarten up, but there's there's usually like there's always

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Speaker 1: going to be things where you just want to kind

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Speaker 1: of like again, the spread and the total the book's

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Speaker 1: advantage there is not just that they are like they're

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Speaker 1: spending the most time.

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Speaker 3: It's that there's the most money coming in.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so the market is adjusting it so they're getting

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Speaker 1: like the book is getting an edge just from having

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Speaker 1: this big market. And when I say derivative just to

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Speaker 1: be queer, just as an example, because I know that's

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Speaker 1: a it is a big word that when I first

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Speaker 1: I think I first heard it when I was kind

403
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Speaker 1: of studying finance and stuff, and I had no idea

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Speaker 1: what that would meant. Uh So a derivative would just

405
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Speaker 1: mean So let's say you project the Tight over the

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Speaker 1: Texans by seven points. Now you're gonna have markets for

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Speaker 1: the Titans to win by eight nine, ten, eleven, twelve, six, five, four, three, two, one,

408
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Speaker 1: et cetera. Those can all be derived off the the

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Speaker 1: that seven point spread, assuming like you like you say,

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Speaker 1: you plug that seven point spread, and it's like, okay,

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Speaker 1: this is the median of my distribution or this is

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Speaker 1: the average of my distribution, right, and then they're they're

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Speaker 1: not calculating, Oh, well, the Texans.

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Speaker 3: The Titans blow teams out a lot, so.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna put their all line at you know, fourteen

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Speaker 1: at this price. Like no, it's literally just calculated off

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Speaker 1: that initial spread. That's what I mean by derivative. Those

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Speaker 1: markets are gonna be a little harder to beat. So

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Speaker 1: but it's also just picking your poison because a lot

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Speaker 1: of times instead of taking a favorite to win by

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Speaker 1: the spread, you could take the favorite to win even

422
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Speaker 1: bigger at plus money. You're not gonna win as many bets,

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Speaker 1: but you're technically not really losing any value unless the

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Speaker 1: book is again overcharging you, which you would which would

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Speaker 1: be a calculation that you'd have to make. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's generally I think how how it breaks down between

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Speaker 1: the different markets. We'll continue. First, I want to talk

428
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 1: to everybody about Underdog. You can go yard all baseball

429
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:10,719
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430
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:13,000
Speaker 1: of the leading sports apps, and you can play now

431
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:17,920
Speaker 1: in your state. Billions of fans already one billions making

432
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,159
Speaker 1: picks on Underdog. You're gonna be next to play. All

433
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 1: you gotta do download the Underdog app. Choose whether a

434
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,359
Speaker 1: baseball player will go higher or lower in one of

435
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 1: their stat categories. We're talking home runs, k's, total bases,

436
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:35,440
Speaker 1: stolen bases, you know all the stats. Once your picks

437
00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 1: feel good, you can play with as little as one dollar.

438
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,199
Speaker 1: If you get everything right, you can win up to

439
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 1: one thousand times your money.

440
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 3: That's a lot of money.

441
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:48,840
Speaker 1: Love baseball season, really love taking these Aaron Judge home

442
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:52,440
Speaker 1: run highers. Probably probably a little bit of a cheat code,

443
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:57,360
Speaker 1: but I really love enjoy that. It's so satisfying to

444
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 1: get a higher on a half home run correct in

445
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 1: the Underdog app, and really all the stack categories, especially

446
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 1: if you're into you know that side of the game

447
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 1: as I am in MLB, which is my first first

448
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 1: love actually before even the NFL.

449
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 3: So yeah, So be sure.

450
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,440
Speaker 1: To download the Underdog app sign up with Promo Code

451
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Speaker 1: Action Network A C t I O N N E

452
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453
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454
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455
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Speaker 1: Code Action Network act IO N AN E two r

456
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Speaker 1: K must be eighteen plus, nineteen plus in Alabama and Nebraska,

457
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Speaker 1: nineteen plus in Colorado for some games, twenty one plus

458
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 1: in Massachusetts and Arizona, and president in the state where

459
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 1: Underdog Fantasy operates. Terms of by voiding Colorado concern what

460
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,720
Speaker 1: you play called one eight hundred Gambler or visit NCP

461
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:56,119
Speaker 1: at gambling dot org. In Arizona, call one eight hundred

462
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Speaker 1: next step or text next step to five three three

463
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 1: for two. In New York called a twenty four to

464
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,879
Speaker 1: seven hope line at one eight seven seven eight hope

465
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:08,400
Speaker 1: and why or text hope and why? All right, try

466
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 1: any What comes your mind when you think of the

467
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,119
Speaker 1: biggest myths.

468
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:15,680
Speaker 2: In sports betting, Well, the first one is, you know,

469
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 2: the house always wins. It's kind of true, but also

470
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 2: not true at all, kind of what you were saying

471
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 2: with Vegas. No's that the house definitely has an edge.

472
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 2: They take a rate, the big and the odds are

473
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:30,920
Speaker 2: in their favor by default. But if you're sharp enough

474
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 2: to identify real edges and manage your bankroll, just be

475
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 2: disciplined when it comes to that, you could absolutely win

476
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:43,440
Speaker 2: over the long run. You know, unlike casino games like blackjack,

477
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:48,879
Speaker 2: unless you're counting cards or slots, those are fixed odds.

478
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 2: The house is going to win in the long run.

479
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 2: You might have some days or weekends we're up big

480
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 2: on slots, but then the long run you're gonna lose.

481
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,399
Speaker 2: That's not how sports betting is. Sports betting, you're betting

482
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,920
Speaker 2: against the market itself betting. It'st other sports betters who

483
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 2: are you know, too passionate. They get you know, fixed

484
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 2: up in narratives. You know, things like that where you

485
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 2: could you could beat them over the long run, so

486
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:15,959
Speaker 2: that the sports books themselves, you know, they're making money

487
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 2: off just people, you know, putting action on both sides

488
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 2: and taking a cut of that. But as an individual,

489
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 2: it doesn't guarantee that you're gonna lose the long run.

490
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 2: It's it's hard to do. You got to be again,

491
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 2: like I said, good at it. But the house doesn't

492
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,199
Speaker 2: always win that. There are people that win in the

493
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 2: long run. And on the flip side, there's also people

494
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 2: that get into sports betting that just think it's easy

495
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,400
Speaker 2: because they know ball, they know that league or they

496
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 2: know that team where you'll just beat the books in

497
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 2: the market. But the reality is, even if you're sharp,

498
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 2: you know, you need to have solid bank roll management

499
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 2: already said why that is, and you're gonna have losing

500
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 2: stretches no matter how good you are, you're gonna have

501
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 2: losing stretches. And being ab to kind of power through that.

502
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 2: Trusting your process and trusting your bank roll management is

503
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:07,880
Speaker 2: critical and not a lot of people have that, even

504
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,360
Speaker 2: if they are kind of so and so sharp in

505
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:13,959
Speaker 2: that league. So yes, you can beat the house, but no,

506
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 2: it isn't easy.

507
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that that's always the one that comes

508
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 1: to mind, versus Vegas knows no. If Vegas new lines

509
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 1: would never move, Oh yeah, Vegas is no, why would

510
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 1: they Why would they drop? Why would they drop a

511
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 1: different line?

512
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 3: You know?

513
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 1: And then and then everyone and then the other myth

514
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 1: is that the lines are only reflective of the money

515
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 1: and balancing not necessarily. A lot of times you find

516
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: and you can do this by just checking the action

517
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,199
Speaker 1: app and the money percentages and the bet percentage. But

518
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 1: books will often take stands on one side of a

519
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,200
Speaker 1: line of anything. They're trying to be on the side

520
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 1: of the winning side. But they're gonna remember they have

521
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 1: a ten percent at least kind of you know, we

522
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 1: have a room to play with, so they can kind

523
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 1: of take a side and still you know, aim to collect,

524
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:02,119
Speaker 1: you know, a little more on the lose what they

525
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 1: think is going to be that losing side, and at worst,

526
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:07,160
Speaker 1: you know that that ten percent takes takes care of that,

527
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 1: you know, so they have this kind of margin for

528
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 1: error to play with.

529
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:12,919
Speaker 3: You got to remember that.

530
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 1: So it's not just like, oh, it's only based on

531
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 1: balancing money fifty to fifty.

532
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 3: No, that's not how it is.

533
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 1: It's it's a mix of what they think the true

534
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 1: line is, but also what they think how they think

535
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 1: betters will bet, and how they think early betters will.

536
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 3: Bet versus the public.

537
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:30,440
Speaker 1: Because a lot of times, like if you look at

538
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 1: NFL bets in our app or NFL games in our app,

539
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:36,399
Speaker 1: a lot of times you'll see sharp action like the

540
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:40,719
Speaker 1: Sunday afternoon before then like the next week, because sharps

541
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: are getting their bets and immediately, and the books kind

542
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 1: of know that, like they're like, all right, we're gonna

543
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 1: have to put out this number. The sharps are probably

544
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:47,879
Speaker 1: gonna hit it, and then we could like once we

545
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,439
Speaker 1: take x amount of this big money that we know,

546
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 1: like there's only so much more money that's gonna come in,

547
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 1: and then we'll adjust it again, you know, based on

548
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 1: number one where those sharps bet, and number two where

549
00:26:57,720 --> 00:26:59,159
Speaker 1: we think the rest of the market's gonna be at.

550
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 3: So goes into the line. It's not that simple.

551
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:06,360
Speaker 1: Also, uh, like you don't need to be taken like

552
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:10,159
Speaker 1: there's nothing wrong with unders There's nothing wrong with underdogs.

553
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 1: Their parlays are not plus ev you know, generally speaking,

554
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 1: I think the best use of parways is like supplemental.

555
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:20,479
Speaker 1: Like if like, if you want to get your bankroll

556
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 1: started and you have like a low about to work with, yeah,

557
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 1: sure throw throw five hour partways at the wall because

558
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,199
Speaker 1: it's probably it probably still is the quickest way for

559
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:30,159
Speaker 1: you to build a big bank roll rather than going

560
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:34,439
Speaker 1: in five hour increments with with straight bets. But you know,

561
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:36,879
Speaker 1: beyond that, yeah, Like it's it's kind of kind of

562
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 1: like a kind of like a DFS tournament if you're

563
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 1: playing cash games, it's like it's it's supplemental.

564
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 3: You can kind of allocate toward it, but it's not.

565
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,159
Speaker 3: It's not. Plus ev it's a lot harder to get

566
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 3: it edged.

567
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:49,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, with those, So those are kinds of things that

568
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 1: I think about, But there's there's definitely, as far as

569
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:57,159
Speaker 1: we know, nothing rigged. That doesn't mean that different officials

570
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,640
Speaker 1: and umpires and whoever don't have different tendon season things

571
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 1: like that. So those those those are something to watch,

572
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 1: but it doesn't mean it's rigged or anything like that,

573
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 1: because like every time people say bet bets are rigged,

574
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:12,200
Speaker 1: I'm like, yo, this makes no sense because people bet

575
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 1: both sides of the thing. You're right, like you know

576
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 1: that that are betting on SGA to shoot free.

577
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 2: Throws every k if you thought it was rigged the

578
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 2: site that you think is rigged, like if you knew beforehand,

579
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 2: people always wait until after the thing it was rigged.

580
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 2: It's like, no, if if you really believe that, then

581
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 2: you should know what it would be rigged for.

582
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 1: Stupid who Yeah, speaking of which, Uh, so we just

583
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 1: talked about myths of sports betting. I want to talk

584
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 1: about common mistakes sports betters make. Sean and Uh, this

585
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 1: is something we've kind of we've kind of talked about

586
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: throughout uh, you know, throughout the year. We kind of

587
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 1: hit on some almost every time we do talk. But

588
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 1: give me some of the most common mistakes you think

589
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 1: sports better is make.

590
00:28:56,760 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 2: Well, there are many, but I think there's three mistakes

591
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 2: I think I see a lot of people making. The

592
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 2: first is not chopping for the best line. You know,

593
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 2: a half point or a few cents on the juice

594
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 2: might not feel like a big deal at the time,

595
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 2: but compound it over hundreds and thousands of bets, that's

596
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 2: that's massive. So you always want to make sure you're

597
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 2: getting the best line. Like you said, having multiple books,

598
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 2: having access so that is critical. The second is no

599
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 2: bankroll discipline. I mean, you could win more bets than

600
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 2: you lose and still bust if your unit sizing is

601
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 2: erratic and not consistent. So a proper bankroll plan will

602
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 2: will protect you from the nevital rough patches. And when

603
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 2: you're hot, you know your your bank your bet size

604
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 2: can go up. That's part of it as well, So

605
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 2: I think having a bankroll discipline is key. And the

606
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 2: third is more of a philosophical one, but no self

607
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 2: awareness or evolution. I think the best betters constantly evaluate

608
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 2: the process, not just on you know, the results, but

609
00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 2: just the underlying things of the process itself. You kind

610
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:05,959
Speaker 2: of have to know what markets you're best in, your

611
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 2: best equipped to find an edge in, and what you

612
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 2: struggle with and kind of adjust accordingly. But it's an

613
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 2: evolving All the leagues are evolving, the prop markets are evolving,

614
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 2: We're getting new data when it comes to things. So

615
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 2: it's just always staying on top and really being honest

616
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 2: with yourself and what you're good and what you struggle with,

617
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 2: and just constantly approving you're never going to be perfect.

618
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 2: I've been betting for twenty plus years now and I'm

619
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 2: still tinkering with my process and trying to get better.

620
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 2: So it's about, you know, just constantly being self aware

621
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 2: and constantly evolving. I see a lot of people kind

622
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 2: of ignore this part of it.

623
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, like I would say this, and I still haven't

624
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 1: fully you know, I'm in the process of diving into this,

625
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 1: but Sean, I woulds and I think we all noticed

626
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 1: this last year. Reading the NFL last year was not

627
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 1: like reading the NFL by the last twenty before that.

628
00:30:58,120 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 3: Like it was just an I don't know if it

629
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 3: is because of the kickoff.

630
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 1: Rules and because it's just more teams are getting smarter,

631
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 1: but it was like favorites recovering in a higher equip

632
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 1: and it was just those scores were different, and you know,

633
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 1: it's it's just it just turned into something different. And

634
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 1: you know, we talk about it with the DFS and

635
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 1: fancy and prop betting too, where it's like the league

636
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:20,239
Speaker 1: average baselines are changing, like and there's things that are

637
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 1: making these things change in each sport.

638
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 3: You know, hockey.

639
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 1: Hockey is completely different and I would say in the

640
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 1: last five to eight years than it had been prior.

641
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 1: And there were you know, there was a stoppage and

642
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 1: then there was it was different then and you know

643
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 1: pre COVID and in the NFL, and then you know,

644
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 1: there's just so many different things that you got to

645
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 1: kind of pay attention to. So but I do have

646
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 1: some you know, because as the guy that bets a

647
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 1: lot of unders, I can I can see like the

648
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 1: mistakes almost more clear. Then I can give like a

649
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 1: piece of advice in a positive way for each of

650
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 1: the mistakes.

651
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,880
Speaker 3: Like I see more of things people shouldn't do, so

652
00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:58,720
Speaker 3: I'll just wist them. So if you're not.

653
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 1: As a better you're probably doing one of these things

654
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 1: or a combination of these things. Number One, you're probably

655
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 1: not betting on enough unders and underdogs. You're probably not

656
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 1: being contrarian enough. Remember it's a market, it's herd mentality

657
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 1: that that's the way the books are gonna shade lines

658
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 1: and the money is gonna move lines. So there's no

659
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 1: jumping on the tail of sharp action from two days

660
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 1: ago or even two minutes ago could be pointless. Again,

661
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 1: you have there has to be an actual edge with

662
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 1: the bed itself, and a lot of times that's going

663
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 1: to be on the contrarian side, because that just makes sense.

664
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 1: If you want to know how Vegas always wins that's

665
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: one of the ways. It's that they're gonna collect more money,

666
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 1: and the line's gonna move in the direction of the public,

667
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 1: and the public's at best fifty to fifty, and that's

668
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 1: not that's not gonna cut it. Uh number three, play

669
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 1: you do too many parways. If you're doing partways, that

670
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 1: means you have to hit every single bet in that partway,

671
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 1: or sometimes they'll give you if you only get one wrong,

672
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 1: but it's still gonna be a discount rate compared to

673
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 1: what you would get if you bet those bets individually

674
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 1: over the long term. That's mathematics. That's there. There's no

675
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 1: debate there, and that goes for parways at Lark. Number four,

676
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 1: I think being too sensitive to price, so Sean you

677
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 1: kind of hit on the other side of it of

678
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 1: like the line shopping completely agree very necessary to maximize

679
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 1: their value.

680
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,800
Speaker 3: At the same time, like I said.

681
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 1: When a team covers, they're usually covering by seven points

682
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 1: in the NFL or something like that.

683
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 3: The average winning team in the NBA wins by eleven.

684
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 1: Right, the spread for a favorite is almost never even

685
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 1: minus eleven. So sometimes people are too sensitive to price

686
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 1: where you know, and that's why I try to get

687
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 1: better about you know, when I remember, like, okay, post

688
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 1: the limit that you would bet this too if I

689
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 1: post them in the action at But generally it's like,

690
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 1: you know, if you see me bet something at minus

691
00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 1: one twenty, like I would bet it at minus one thirty,

692
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have a bigger edge than like this, like

693
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 1: this tiny mid percent of which I'm working with there,

694
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 1: So I say a lot of time, especially if you're

695
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:09,960
Speaker 1: tailing other people's bets, don't be overly.

696
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:10,760
Speaker 3: Priced sensitive either.

697
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 1: Ideally it would be good to find a limit, but

698
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 1: more often than not, you know, like if you get

699
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 1: a few more sense of juice, it's not going to

700
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 1: really tote the bet the other way. It shouldn't that

701
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 1: then they just shouldn't betting it. The edge would be

702
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 1: too small and in the you know, in the first place.

703
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:30,800
Speaker 1: So that's one. And then the last one is sample size.

704
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 1: People are putting way too much weight into small sample sizes,

705
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:34,879
Speaker 1: recent sample.

706
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 3: Sizes, and that's one.

707
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 1: So you sean, you know, I think one of the

708
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:44,399
Speaker 1: notions has been all this data, all this artificial intelligence,

709
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 1: uh you know, chatbots, ll ms, all these different things,

710
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:50,760
Speaker 1: the rise of betting in general, and all these betting sites,

711
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 1: the legalization, I should say, there's all this data now, right,

712
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 1: and I feel like people are like, oh, you know,

713
00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:59,400
Speaker 1: the market striver's haired to be, But no, it just

714
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:02,400
Speaker 1: means more people who are using bad data, right, Like

715
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 1: have you noticed that or is that? Is that something

716
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:06,799
Speaker 1: that I'm just making up?

717
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 2: No? No, yeah, yeah, you're right, you know I see

718
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 2: it all the time, like last five game logs on Twitter, which, yeah,

719
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 2: there could be some value in that, like if you

720
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:20,880
Speaker 2: identify what's causing that, Like for baseball, for example, if

721
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,719
Speaker 2: it's a strikeout prop, yeah, he could be throwing his

722
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 2: slider more and he's getting people to swing and miss

723
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 2: at more. There's a reason for that. Maybe the market

724
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:32,440
Speaker 2: hasn't really caught up. But sometimes you know, it's just

725
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:36,359
Speaker 2: that players do for regression, you're kind of overlooking sort

726
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 2: of the underlying data and you're just going off box

727
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,399
Speaker 2: score data. So I agree, I think there's a lot

728
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 2: more data out there, but it doesn't mean everybody's analyzing

729
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 2: it appropriately. Not a lot of people have you know,

730
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 2: extensive math background, so they can kind of overlook small

731
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 2: sample sizes because of that. So that creates inefficiencies too.

732
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 2: So just because there's way more info and data than

733
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 2: ever doesn't mean that everybody's using it appropriately.

734
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I see this one a lot because I

735
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 1: generally don't pay attention to social media, really try not

736
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 1: to pay attention to much of anything other than my

737
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 1: own process, just because the noise just tends to not

738
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 1: really really lead me to say, right, yeah, yeah, I

739
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 1: mean depending on who you are, because I would say,

740
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 1: you know, when I was newer to the game, I

741
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 1: was paying a lot more attention, just trying to feel

742
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 1: things out. But yeah, I'm at a point now where,

743
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 1: like my process, it's tough to really pay attention to

744
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:31,400
Speaker 1: other things. But I will say, yeah, in general, I

745
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 1: would say the public noise because like a wit of times,

746
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 1: and this goes into the sample size thing. Specifically, I'll

747
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 1: see things like this this This receiver posted at least

748
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 1: thirty five yards in each of his last or four

749
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 1: of his last five games. His his prop is only

750
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 1: nineteen and a half for this next game, and it's

751
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:50,479
Speaker 1: like a guy I've like hammered the unders on and

752
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 1: I'm I'm looking on social and like, you know, it's

753
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: easy to make a case the other way. Well, yeah,

754
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:57,280
Speaker 1: it's always easy to make a case in some random,

755
00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:02,279
Speaker 1: small sample size. So yeah, that kind of noise definitely

756
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:06,399
Speaker 1: either tune it out or if you if you're at

757
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,359
Speaker 1: the point where you can start to recognize this, maybe

758
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:09,400
Speaker 1: listen to this podcast.

759
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:10,280
Speaker 3: Uh.

760
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:14,480
Speaker 1: That the other side, that's like, there's nothing that makes

761
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:17,800
Speaker 1: me more comfortable in a bet than like you're like

762
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 1: seeing like like the Talking Heads giving it out on

763
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 1: like a big show. And I've been there, I've been

764
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 1: in that, but like that's the thing they made fun

765
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:25,919
Speaker 1: of me on those shows because I would be given

766
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 1: out like under two and a half, you know whatever,

767
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 1: And and to the point where sometimes they don't they

768
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 1: don't even a lot of people don't know this. They

769
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 1: don't let you give out unders a lot of times

770
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:36,240
Speaker 1: on these on those shows.

771
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 3: So that that's something also to keep in mind.

772
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,479
Speaker 1: It kind of varied depending on the league and the show,

773
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,759
Speaker 1: but just just so people know from someone that's been

774
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 1: there and does that, they sometimes they don't even let

775
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:49,280
Speaker 1: you give out unders.

776
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:50,640
Speaker 3: So it's like when you see I.

777
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,280
Speaker 2: Can't I don't join I can't join them because that would.

778
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:59,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, shoot, definitely don't don't engage as much

779
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:01,320
Speaker 1: as I used to, And yeah, I mean, you know

780
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 1: what I mean, it's it's it's one of those things

781
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 1: that it's just that's just the reality of it. And

782
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 1: it's not anybody, you know, it's not it's not their fault.

783
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:12,839
Speaker 1: It's coming down from somewhere else. But the point is, uh, yeah,

784
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 1: there's nothing there. A lot of times there's nothing better

785
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 1: than seeing like public outlets or you know, Twitter accounts

786
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 1: or ex accounts I should say, or whatever it is

787
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:25,400
Speaker 1: on social media, TikTok whatever giving out a certain play

788
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:28,920
Speaker 1: and then it's like it's getting spread around like, oh man,

789
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 1: do I want to bet the opposite side of that,

790
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 1: Like you know what I mean, Like that's these things are.

791
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:34,800
Speaker 3: They're generally just small samples.

792
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:36,959
Speaker 1: And I used to think because a lot of times

793
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 1: the sports books will also show you like last five

794
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 1: game logs in there, like in the sportsbook, Like let's

795
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:44,400
Speaker 1: say you go to a certain vet, they'll show you

796
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:46,279
Speaker 1: like last five. I used to think they were just

797
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 1: trying to throw people off, but like sometimes I think

798
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:52,399
Speaker 1: they actually base their they are basing their lives off

799
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 1: the last five too. So either way, there's gonna be

800
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:56,880
Speaker 1: some kind of edge with the sample size, whether it's

801
00:38:56,920 --> 00:39:00,160
Speaker 1: against the book whether it's against just the public or

802
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 1: or both, but generally you want to have your antenna's

803
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:06,319
Speaker 1: up and more often than not, like whatever the people

804
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 1: are on one thing, definitely step back and say, how

805
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:11,399
Speaker 1: could this go wrong? Because a lot of times your

806
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 1: most profitable bets are gonna be the contrarian ones. Like

807
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:16,959
Speaker 1: every time I post bets, my friends are like hitting

808
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 1: yet like why why are you posting these obscure bets?

809
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 1: I'm like, because, like these these are the ones that

810
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 1: haven't been hit, like it's it's or these are the

811
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 1: ones where you know the public hasn't you know, like

812
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 1: the cat's not out of the bag, because sometimes the

813
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 1: public will be right too, but the cat will just

814
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 1: come out of the bag. Like trying to think of

815
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 1: one like I think you had. Maybe it was like

816
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 1: the Noah Gray one last year for the Super Bowl

817
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 1: or something where like everyone was on these under but

818
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:40,239
Speaker 1: I don't even think I ended up betting it because

819
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 1: by the time you gave it out and everyone got

820
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 1: done with it, like it had dropped like five yards

821
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 1: and I was like, all right, like I don't I

822
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 1: don't even have it anymore. But like so you have

823
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 1: situations like that too, But yeah, small sample sized, No

824
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 1: bueno unless you can identify it, like, okay, this is

825
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 1: four games and four games ago they started playing a

826
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 1: whole new opponent, an NBA or NHL or something, and

827
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 1: for a playoff series maybe that, but.

828
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 3: That is going to do it for us.

829
00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:10,839
Speaker 1: Here for Sean Kerner, who you can find on x

830
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 1: at the Underscore Odds Baker and also on the Action

831
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 1: Network app at the same handle, I am Chris Raybon.

832
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:20,400
Speaker 1: You can find me at Chris Raybond on both of those.

833
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 1: Until next time, let's get this money. Action Network reminds

834
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:44,399
Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

835
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 1: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

836
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 1: to seven at one eight hundred gambler