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Speaker 1: See Action Network podcast, but no one's offering you action.

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Speaker 2: It's a gambling.

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Speaker 1: Experience of life doing. It's by way of saying, I understand.

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Speaker 2: Man, Mike, I know what you want, to know what

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Speaker 2: you need. This is way you belong.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. The NCAA Tournament is

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Speaker 3: here and it's just what the Doctor ordered. So we

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Speaker 3: had to bring this episode back again for another go around.

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Speaker 3: It's the fifth annual Doctor Nick Giffin's Guide to March Madness.

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Speaker 3: We'll get into a little bit of everything in this episode.

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Speaker 3: In the past we've just let Nick Cook just turned

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Speaker 3: over the whole thing to him. But I'm going to

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Speaker 3: essentially play the role of the audience here Pepper and

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Speaker 3: with some questions as he gets into some of his

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Speaker 3: methodology and everything under the sun as it relates to

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Speaker 3: his guide. But first, Nick, you know what, I don't

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Speaker 3: care for these naysayers who are saying, oh, Cinderella is dead,

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Speaker 3: all the.

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Speaker 1: Juice is out of this tournament.

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Speaker 3: You know, the top four seeds are all double digit

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Speaker 3: favor it's in the first rounds, and of course.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be super chalky again.

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Speaker 3: This tournament has proven time and time again and that

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Speaker 3: you can't get your arms around it.

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Speaker 1: You know, the.

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Speaker 3: Results from previous years do not roll over in the

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Speaker 3: case of this particular season.

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Speaker 1: So many of these teams are.

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Speaker 3: Led by freshmen, and I understand that they have multimillion

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Speaker 3: dollar bodies and jump shots and everything else, but between

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Speaker 3: the ears, they're still eighteen to nineteen year olds, and

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Speaker 3: when the pressure gets dialed up in March, unlike any

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Speaker 3: other events you know, in college basketball, sometimes that can

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Speaker 3: bring out the best and sometimes people can choke. I mean,

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Speaker 3: it took until the final four for Duke to choke

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Speaker 3: last year. But top teams are not invincible. So let's

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Speaker 3: start there. How excited are you for this tournament? And

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Speaker 3: what do you say to those people who are like,

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Speaker 3: you know, this is pretty clear, just go ahead and

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Speaker 3: push those top seeds to the second weekend and not

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Speaker 3: even think about it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Well, I'm super excited because, first of all, my Virginia

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Speaker 4: Cavalieriers are good again, so I'm excited for that. Second

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Speaker 4: of all, my NC State Wolfpack, which is where I

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Speaker 4: went to grad school, made the tournament barely, so I'm

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Speaker 4: excited about that as well. But to your point about

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Speaker 4: it being top heavy, this Gifting Guide to March Madness.

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Speaker 4: The whole idea is to you know, have some Cinderella

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Speaker 4: teams in here, and if we got something that's so

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Speaker 4: top heavy, it does make this strategy a little bit tough,

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Speaker 4: which is why I've adjusted it over the years. We'll

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Speaker 4: talk about that, But I don't think these teams are

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Speaker 4: as invincible as last year. Last year was really top heavy.

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Speaker 4: This year certainly top heavy as well. But I do

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Speaker 4: see a little bit more beat ability in these top teams,

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Speaker 4: a little more you know, just vulnerabilities or spots or

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Speaker 4: situations where I think these teams can be toppled. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: I think it's a strong crop of one and two seeds,

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Speaker 4: but I don't think we're gonna get seven out of

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Speaker 4: eight teams in the Elite eight being a one or

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Speaker 4: a two seed this year.

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Speaker 1: Now, where do you start with your guide when you

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Speaker 1: talk about rollover strategy, when you talk about trying to

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Speaker 1: maximize the potential value of some of those you know

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Speaker 1: seeds you know, seven through sixteen, anywhere in between, where's

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Speaker 1: the starting point for our audience?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: Well, like I said, we've we've kind of had to

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Speaker 4: change it over the years as the tournament has become.

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Speaker 2: More top heavy.

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Speaker 4: But the original premise, which I know you said, this

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Speaker 4: is the fifth annual, it's the fifth with Action Network.

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Speaker 4: This will be the eighth for a lot of people

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Speaker 4: who have been following me before.

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Speaker 2: My Action Network days.

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Speaker 4: But you know, it used to be we would find these,

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Speaker 4: like you said, these seven to twelve or even thirteen seeds,

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Speaker 4: and almost every year it seemed like back in the

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Speaker 4: you know, the mid twenty teens, a team was a

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Speaker 4: ten seed or whatever was getting to the Elite eight

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Speaker 4: or even the final four. If you think about Loyola

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Speaker 4: there was a Xavier run. All sorts of teams have

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Speaker 4: done really well. So the idea was to just play

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Speaker 4: them on the money line and roll them over until

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Speaker 4: I felt, you know, like I'd gotten what I wanted

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Speaker 4: out of it, which was us the Elite eight, because

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Speaker 4: three wins from a double digit seed back then could

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Speaker 4: net you some ridiculous returns. And the whole reason we

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Speaker 4: did a money line rollover is because they're odds to

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Speaker 4: win the tournament or their region or whatever. Is a

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Speaker 4: lot shorter when you just bet it that way versus

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Speaker 4: when you just bet them to win. Take your winnings

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Speaker 4: and your original bet, and then bet all that again,

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Speaker 4: and then take those winnings in your original bet and

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Speaker 4: bet all of that again, and it actually turns out

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Speaker 4: you can get more like, you know, let's say eighty

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Speaker 4: to one on your money instead of fifty to one

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Speaker 4: to bet them to win the region or something like that, or.

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Speaker 2: To make the Elite eight.

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Speaker 4: So it actually ends up becoming more profitable to do

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Speaker 4: a rollover. And the idea for me now is, I

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Speaker 4: like to there's eight parts of the bracket, right, a

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Speaker 4: top and a bottom half of each region, targeting a

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Speaker 4: one and a two seed. I like to pick one

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Speaker 4: team from each of those sub regions and all they

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Speaker 4: need to do is win three games, and if we

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Speaker 4: get one of those teams to the Elite eight, that

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Speaker 4: I'll make us break even at worst or likely turn

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Speaker 4: a really good profit, you know, especially if we get

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Speaker 4: one of those twelve seeds or ten seeds.

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Speaker 2: Or something like that.

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Speaker 4: But at worst, we would break even if we get

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Speaker 4: one of those eight teams to the Elite eighth.

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Speaker 2: Now, there are spots.

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Speaker 4: Where we'll have to kind of you know, do some

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Speaker 4: some special stuff, but we'll talk about that.

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Speaker 2: But that's the kind of the main premise.

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Speaker 3: There just a quick emotional disclaimer for our audience. What

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Speaker 3: do you say to people who you get through the

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Speaker 3: first weekends. You're holding a hefty bag and you've been

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Speaker 3: along for the ride, and doctor Nick has led me

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Speaker 3: in the right direction, but a, I don't know if

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Speaker 3: I can keep it going.

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Speaker 1: Are there any outs?

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Speaker 3: Do you ever find yourself in a situation where maybe

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Speaker 3: it's injury related, maybe it's an opponent that does not

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Speaker 3: actually match up as well as you thought when you

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Speaker 3: were first.

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Speaker 1: Sketching out the idea.

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Speaker 3: Are there any off ramps to this other than potentially

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Speaker 3: scaling back from a moneyline play to a spread play.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I mean if you get, you know, like a twelve

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Speaker 4: seed and they end up facing a four seed and

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Speaker 4: a five seed, that two wins right there will probably.

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Speaker 2: Already make up for everything.

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Speaker 4: So you know, if you get a little bit of

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Speaker 4: cold feet, you can cash out right after that and

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Speaker 4: probably break even or turn a profit, even if it's

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Speaker 4: a twelve seed. And then all of a sudden, you know,

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Speaker 4: let's say you have a twelve seed facing a one seed.

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Speaker 4: You could definitely take an off ramp and just not

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Speaker 4: have them against the one seed.

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Speaker 2: So I think there are certain ways. Well there's other

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Speaker 2: ways where you.

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Speaker 4: Know, like I talked about, we may have to double

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Speaker 4: up in a subregion, and all of a sudden, if

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Speaker 4: you get two teams that we picked facing each other,

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Speaker 4: that's gold because then you just cash it out right there.

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Speaker 4: You've got those teams to win twice each instead of

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Speaker 4: three times, and they face each other and you're like, okay,

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Speaker 4: well I can cash those out. So there definitely are

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Speaker 4: some off ramps and some audibles we have to pull.

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Speaker 4: There was one year where I had Florida Atlantic going

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Speaker 4: far and the whole premise behind them was they would

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Speaker 4: get to face Purdue. Well, Purdue lost to Fairly Dickinson

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Speaker 4: and had the audible there and take them on the

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Speaker 4: spread instead, and they didn't cover the spread versus Fairly Dickinson.

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Speaker 2: So you know, just some.

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Speaker 4: Weird situations crop up because it is the NCAA tournament

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Speaker 4: and hey, sixteen seeds have upset one seeds before.

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Speaker 3: Let's start this discussion for this year's bracket in the West,

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Speaker 3: and I don't know, I'll pull a random team.

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Speaker 1: See if you've even considered them. NC State. Have you

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Speaker 1: thought about the wolf Pack for this particular strategy.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well that's the whole thing. We are going to

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Speaker 4: start with kind of one of these exceptions. It's not

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Speaker 4: a real exception because we are just picking one team

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Speaker 4: from this half of the West region and that is

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Speaker 4: my NC State wolf Pack. This is the team that

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Speaker 4: brought us to glory in twenty twenty four. NC State

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Speaker 4: made it all the way to the Final four, and

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Speaker 4: we had them in this rollover strategy going back to

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Speaker 4: the well with my wolf Pack, and we're leading off

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Speaker 4: with them because they play in the first four tonight

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Speaker 4: as we're recording this, so got to lead off here

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Speaker 4: NC State. The goal here is to bet them on

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Speaker 4: the money line and get them to win three rounds.

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Speaker 4: So if they win three rounds, instead of getting to

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Speaker 4: the Elite eight, they just make it to the Sweet sixteen.

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Speaker 4: And what that does is it helps them, you know,

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Speaker 4: avoid having to play a one or a two seed,

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Speaker 4: which of course in their region is perdue in the

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Speaker 4: two seed there, so that would avoid perdue. But I

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Speaker 4: have NC State power rated better than Texas. They did

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Speaker 4: play earlier this year, but you know, Texas won, but

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Speaker 4: I think NC State is still the better team. I

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Speaker 4: have them, you know, about a half a point one

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Speaker 4: point better than Texas. So you know, you can even

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Speaker 4: get the wolf Pack if you want to play them

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Speaker 4: on the spread at plus one and a half in

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Speaker 4: some spots, or you can get a minus one way

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Speaker 4: out on the money line. I'm fine either way you

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Speaker 4: want to do that in the first round. But I

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Speaker 4: like NC State because then they would face BYU, and

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Speaker 4: BYU has been on a slide. They've lost ten of

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Speaker 4: their last seventeen games. And NC State also plays like

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Speaker 4: a kind of a high variant style. Shooting threes is

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Speaker 4: a top ninety rate, while forcing opponents to shoot threes

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Speaker 4: is at a top thirty.

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Speaker 2: Rate in the nation.

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Speaker 4: And that high variance is what can create a lot

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Speaker 4: of downside for ency State, as we've seen in some games,

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Speaker 4: but also creates a lot of upside, and we're looking

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Speaker 4: for upside in this strategy. And then, like I said,

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Speaker 4: they wouldn't have face Perdue. Their third game would be

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Speaker 4: against the Gonzaga Bulldogs if everything you know, went to

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Speaker 4: according to plan on the other portion of that bracket.

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Speaker 4: And I actually have the Zags power rated more like

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Speaker 4: a borderline three four seed. They are a three seed

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Speaker 4: and they take a little bit of a hit from

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Speaker 4: losing braidon Huff, which costs them about a point here.

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Speaker 4: So we're gonna rofrom my NC State Wolfpack to kind

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Speaker 4: of bring us back to glory one more time.

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Speaker 3: When it comes to the wolf Pack, they finished the

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Speaker 3: season on a two and seven slide, but two of

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Speaker 3: those losses were by a single point another in overtime.

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Speaker 3: Is that someplace that you go to be able to

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Speaker 3: mine value where teams that have been snake bit in

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Speaker 3: close games where the overall record obviously it's what pushed

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Speaker 3: them onto the bubble in the first place, but you

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Speaker 3: think they're fundamentals as a team with a head coach

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Speaker 3: who has experienced in March is worth examining.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, I mean it's it's margin, right, and if you're

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Speaker 4: keep in games close, you have a chance to win

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Speaker 4: those games. And that's kind kind of it's almost the

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Speaker 4: NFL premise of the luck rankings, where we talk about,

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Speaker 4: you know, teams getting luckier unlucky, and NC State, you know,

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Speaker 4: prior to that nine game stretch, we're slightly on the

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Speaker 4: lucky side and now they are slightly on the unlucky

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Speaker 4: side of the results column there, so they have had

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Speaker 4: a bit of a slide just like BYU, but I

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Speaker 4: think NC State's slide has been a little bit more

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Speaker 4: unlucky than BYU's. You know, BYU has rightly fallen from

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Speaker 4: around tenth or even twelfth in most power rating systems

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Speaker 4: to around the mid twenties, you know, twenty third by

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Speaker 4: Ken Palm right now. That is because they actually have

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Speaker 4: been losing games that have been by margin, whereas NC

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Speaker 4: State has been kind of losing the closer ones. So that,

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Speaker 4: like you said, there's kind of some hidden value there

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Speaker 4: on NC State losing really close games.

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Speaker 3: Let's go to the top of the West bracket for

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Speaker 3: a team on the other end of the spectrum that's

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Speaker 3: been running super hot, and that's the Arkansas Razorbacks.

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Speaker 1: Darius Acuff is just put.

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Speaker 3: On a superman costume carrying them to an SEC tournament championship.

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Speaker 1: But it wasn't just him.

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Speaker 3: If you go back and watch that title game, everybody

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Speaker 3: was knocking down shots. Not necessarily a great perimeter shooting team,

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Speaker 3: but when Brazil is knocking down threes all over the place,

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Speaker 3: they're a really difficult.

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Speaker 1: Team to beat.

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Speaker 3: Talking through the strategy as it relates to here, you

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Speaker 3: laying the points is a pure money line rollover.

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Speaker 1: How are you thinking about woo pig suiy?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, So Darius A cuff. First of all, he has

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Speaker 4: absolutely destroyed me this year because I bet is under

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Speaker 4: on his points prop twice and both times he absolutely

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Speaker 4: blew it.

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Speaker 2: Out of the water.

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Speaker 4: So just some interesting stuff there. So I will never

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Speaker 4: be taking his under on points again. So instead, I'm

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Speaker 4: gonna root for him to score a lot of points

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Speaker 4: in this portion of the West Region. And I think

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Speaker 4: Arkansas is the only team that's equipped to beat Arizona

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Speaker 4: in this portion, and that's why I'm going with Arkansas.

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Speaker 4: You know, I don't love going with the number four seed,

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Speaker 4: but that's what we're gonna have to do. So in

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Speaker 4: that first round they face Hawaii. I actually have Arkansas

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Speaker 4: at almost a seventeen point favorite, and you get you

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Speaker 4: can get fifteen and a half out there in the market,

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Speaker 4: And a lot of the reason that I have Arkansas

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Speaker 4: is they just push pace, right, and so if you're

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Speaker 4: pushing pace, you have more possessions to realize your per

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Speaker 4: possession advantage, and that's what we like from a favorite.

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Speaker 4: So I have them covering against Hawaii. Then we'll look

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Speaker 4: to do the money line rollover in the second and

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Speaker 4: third round, and in that second round they'd be projected

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Speaker 4: to play Wisconsin. I'd have Arkansas favored. I think everybody would,

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Speaker 4: but I still think, you know, around a minus one

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Speaker 4: sixty money line is good enough for this strategy because

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Speaker 4: when they do face Arizona, they would be plus two

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Speaker 4: fifty or so in that neighborhood as underdogs. That would

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Speaker 4: get us there by a spread first round, a minus

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Speaker 4: one sixty money line and a plus two to fifty

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Speaker 4: money line would get us to a profitable gift and guide.

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Speaker 4: And like I said, I think the Badgers are equipped

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Speaker 4: to at least give Arizona a good run for their money.

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Speaker 4: Whereas I don't see any other team in this portion

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Speaker 4: of the bracket. You know, Villanova, Uta, State, High Point

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Speaker 4: in Hawaii. I don't see any of these guys really

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Speaker 4: giving Arizona contest. But I think Arkansas would have a

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Speaker 4: good game there, and if a cuff just goes absolutely nuts, Arkansas.

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Speaker 2: Could make their way to the Elite eight.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: The first matchup with the Rainbow Warriors, Iran gan Not

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Speaker 3: is a defensive specialist, but a big part of Hawaii's

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Speaker 3: defense is it's the no help defense where they have

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Speaker 3: a really solid front line in their front court in

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Speaker 3: terms of size. They want to rebound, but they don't

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Speaker 3: want to help and then allow guys to kick the

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Speaker 3: ball out and get open threes. Best of luck, not

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Speaker 3: helping a cuff he could go for fifty points in

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Speaker 3: that game alone. So I really like that angle. All right,

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Speaker 3: We're going to go from the West all the way

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Speaker 3: over to the East and the East. I mean a

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Speaker 3: lot has been said already about the coaching acumen there

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Speaker 3: in this region. Seven national championships spread across four coaches,

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Speaker 3: and we have the Duke bou Levils as the one seed,

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Speaker 3: Yukon as the two, and right off the bat, just

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Speaker 3: from a you know, committee standpoint, as someone.

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Speaker 1: Who pulls for Saint John's, my mother went to Saint

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Speaker 1: John's Law sending them across.

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Speaker 3: The country to San Diego to play at Viejas after

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Speaker 3: playing at MSG in the best possible scenario in terms

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Speaker 3: of a home court advantage against Yukon in the Big

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Speaker 3: East Final that potentially presents a little bit of a

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Speaker 3: drop off, and they're playing against the Northern Iowa team

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Speaker 3: that wants to slow things down. They play at a

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Speaker 3: snail's pace, They play really disciplined defense in the half court,

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Speaker 3: they rebound, and they don't turn the ball over, which

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Speaker 3: basically is going to put Patino and his shooters in

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Speaker 3: a box make jumpers, or potentially lose. Before we get

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Speaker 3: into any of your strategy here, do you think Saint

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Speaker 3: John's should be on upset alert even though they're a

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Speaker 3: double digit favorite against the Northern Iowa Panthers.

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Speaker 4: No, I don't, and I actually have Saint John's as

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Speaker 4: a pick in this region, so they're my pick in

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Speaker 4: the ducalf of the region, and I actually have the

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Speaker 4: Red Storm eleven points better than Northern Iowa. I know

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Speaker 4: the line is like ten and a half now, I

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Speaker 4: think it was nine and a half earlier in the week.

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Speaker 4: But one key aspect of this matchup is you and I.

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Speaker 4: Their defense is number three in the nation and defending

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Speaker 4: the three point shot, but Saint John's doesn't really shoot

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Speaker 4: the three at a high rate, so it kind of

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Speaker 4: negates one of you and I's defensive core defensive strengths.

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Speaker 4: And if you're doing that, it's gonna be Saint John's

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Speaker 4: I think scoring from the interior, and you know, I

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Speaker 4: understand it's going to be a slow pace game with

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Speaker 4: Northern Iowa playing at a slow pace, but Saint John's

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Speaker 4: can get to the line. I know You and I

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Speaker 4: doesn't foul, but Saint John's can create foul opportunities even

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Speaker 4: when other teams try not to foul by working their

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Speaker 4: way inside and again negating one of the absolute best

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Speaker 4: defensive strengths of you and I is going to be

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Speaker 4: I think a big win there offensively for Saint John's,

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Speaker 4: so you know, maybe look for this game to.

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Speaker 2: Also go over a little bit.

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Speaker 4: But I'm also picking Saint John's because kind of like

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Speaker 4: with Arizona, where I have Arkansas the only team equipped

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Speaker 4: beat Arizona, I have Saint John's the only team equipped

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Speaker 4: to beat Duke in that top half of that East region,

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Speaker 4: I don't have Kansas. I have Saint John's about two

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Speaker 4: and a half to three points better than Kansas. I'd

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Speaker 4: make them around minus one fifty on the money line,

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Speaker 4: but I suspect against Kansas we'd probably get more like

360
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Speaker 4: minus one thirty five minus one forty. I think the

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Speaker 4: market's both undervaluing Saint John's and overvaluing Kansas, who I

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Speaker 4: have as only thirteen point favorites versus cal Baptist, but

363
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Speaker 4: the market is sitting at around fourteen and a half,

364
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Speaker 4: so I think we'd get some value against Saint John's

365
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Speaker 4: as well, and from there they put up a good

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Speaker 4: fight against Duke, that is again another banged up team.

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Speaker 4: They play at a relatively slow paced bottom eighty nationally,

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Speaker 4: so they don't get to realize their per possession advantage

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Speaker 4: as much. And Duke also can be a bit of

370
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Speaker 4: a high variance. They shoot a ton of threes and

371
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Speaker 4: they all out a ton of threes, which again picks

372
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Speaker 4: up some variants, which is what you want when you're

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Speaker 4: taking an underdog against the top seeded team.

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Speaker 1: A couple of questions to follow up there.

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Speaker 3: First, you know, you and I a spiritual relative, at

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Speaker 3: least to those Virginia teams with the pack line defense,

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Speaker 3: so I'm a little bit surprised that you're fading them

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Speaker 3: right away.

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Speaker 1: But your points are well taken.

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Speaker 3: And let's look further ahead, because I actually like Saint

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Speaker 3: John's if they can sneak by you and I and

382
00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:03,160
Speaker 3: don't get into a rock fight in a game like that,

383
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Speaker 3: I do think they match up better against Kansas. But

384
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Speaker 3: let's look even further that Duke matchup that you discussed

385
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Speaker 3: in terms of your modeling. Do you look at it

386
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Speaker 3: from a perspective of is gangba one hundred percent?

387
00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:15,119
Speaker 1: Is he playing right away?

388
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Speaker 3: And then clearly Foster is the straw that starts the drink. Offensively,

389
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Speaker 3: they labored through the ACC tournament. Yes they cut down

390
00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:24,720
Speaker 3: the nets, but they almost lost to Florida State.

391
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Speaker 1: The offense looks a little bit disjointed.

392
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Speaker 3: At times, and when it gets a crunch time, who

393
00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,199
Speaker 3: is the primary ball handler? Are you looking at it

394
00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:35,639
Speaker 3: two potential matchups, one with Foster back in the fold

395
00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:38,040
Speaker 3: in the Sweet sixteen, which would be the best case

396
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Speaker 3: scenario for Duke, and one with him in street clothes

397
00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:41,240
Speaker 3: on the bench.

398
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Speaker 2: Yeah.

399
00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:43,679
Speaker 4: Absolutely, and you kind of have to look at it

400
00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:47,840
Speaker 4: that way. But either way, it's less about the matchup.

401
00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:48,760
Speaker 2: I don't really care.

402
00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:50,199
Speaker 4: I'm just trying to find a team that can get

403
00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:53,040
Speaker 4: to the Elite eight for this strategy, and Saint John's

404
00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:55,640
Speaker 4: is the only team here that has a chance at

405
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Speaker 4: upsetting Duke in my opinion. So that's why I'm wrong

406
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Speaker 4: with Saint John's here. It's so much less about individual

407
00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:05,760
Speaker 4: matchups or individual players. For me, this is a more

408
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:09,479
Speaker 4: holistic kind of strategy where I'm just looking at spots

409
00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:14,679
Speaker 4: where I think teams are undervalued and have upside to

410
00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:17,159
Speaker 4: get to the Elite eight. And Saint John's has that

411
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:20,679
Speaker 4: ability to provide us with that with this gift and

412
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:25,480
Speaker 4: guide strategy. And you know, for Saint John's legitimately, because

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Speaker 4: they would be a good enough like a large enough

414
00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:31,280
Speaker 4: dog against Duke, you could even take Saint John's instead

415
00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:33,399
Speaker 4: of covering the spread in the first round against Northern

416
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,840
Speaker 4: Iowa money line in the first round, and then money

417
00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:39,440
Speaker 4: line against Kansas, and then money line and against Duke.

418
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Speaker 4: And I think I calculated it to where it would

419
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:45,600
Speaker 4: be good enough to still at worst break even assuming

420
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Speaker 4: they faced Duke. So you know, if you're afraid of

421
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Speaker 4: that spread bed against Northern Iowa, you can take the

422
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Speaker 4: money line.

423
00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:53,399
Speaker 2: I'm not afraid of it.

424
00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:56,800
Speaker 4: I understand the whole pack line thing, but let's be real, Virginia,

425
00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:59,919
Speaker 4: they underperformed in the tournament with the pack line defense.

426
00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:02,239
Speaker 4: I know they won the tournament one year and it

427
00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:04,800
Speaker 4: was the best, you know, tournament in my life. It

428
00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:06,520
Speaker 4: was one of the greatest things of my life was

429
00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:09,959
Speaker 4: seeing Virginia in the National Championship, but struggled in that

430
00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,920
Speaker 4: tournament to get wins every single game at lead eight,

431
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:16,080
Speaker 4: even street sixteen e lead eight, Final four championship game,

432
00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:18,879
Speaker 4: Virginia had the most crazy comeback, so they had to

433
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:21,880
Speaker 4: win an overtime and sure that might keep the game

434
00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:24,919
Speaker 4: close against Saint John's, but I actually think Saint John's

435
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:28,320
Speaker 4: again has that strength of being able to play inside

436
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:33,280
Speaker 4: where it eliminates one of Northern Iowa was key defensive capabilities.

437
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:35,000
Speaker 1: Let's now look at the bottom of the bracket in

438
00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:35,400
Speaker 1: the East.

439
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:38,200
Speaker 3: Yukon is not the killing machine that they once were

440
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:40,439
Speaker 3: when they went back to back national championships.

441
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:42,280
Speaker 1: They'll lose to Marquette.

442
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:43,840
Speaker 3: Late in the regular season and then they get that

443
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:47,400
Speaker 3: rematch against Saint John's and basically layan egg. Offensively, their

444
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:50,440
Speaker 3: guard play has looked like it's fallen off a cliff here.

445
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:51,399
Speaker 1: Late in the season.

446
00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,280
Speaker 3: And if they're vulnerable, this is why you're hitting not one,

447
00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:57,200
Speaker 3: but two teams out of this pod with a rollover strategy.

448
00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,760
Speaker 3: Let's talk about Louisville first, because they're up against kind

449
00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 3: of upset pick. South Florida, you know, brings lots to

450
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:06,040
Speaker 3: the table offensive versatility. Eleven starter excuse me, all five

451
00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:09,720
Speaker 3: starters scoring eleven points. Are more Isaiah and Nelson in

452
00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:12,159
Speaker 3: the middle, you know, a bouncy six', ten you, know

453
00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:17,160
Speaker 3: stock machine for lack of a better. Phrase but that being,

454
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 3: said The american was not a very good conference this. Year,

455
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,919
Speaker 3: yes they finished on a seventeen and one run in

456
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:23,720
Speaker 3: games that finished in.

457
00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:25,680
Speaker 1: Regulation but this is going to be a big step,

458
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,320
Speaker 1: up particularly IF. Mikel brown is.

459
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 3: Healthy what's your insight on his return to the lineup

460
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 3: and if he is one hundred, percent what is the

461
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:35,240
Speaker 3: ceiling for This cards?

462
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 4: Team, yeah this is DEFINITELY i can understand the you,

463
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:43,160
Speaker 4: know upset alert spot here Because, LOUISVILLE i mean they

464
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:46,639
Speaker 4: shoot threes like, CRAZY i mean fifth top five naturally

465
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:51,520
Speaker 4: in a three point attempt, rate and you know that

466
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:53,840
Speaker 4: that is a recipe for disaster if you don't end

467
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,480
Speaker 4: up hitting those. Threes, now they are a pretty good

468
00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:59,159
Speaker 4: three point shooting team as, well but it could be

469
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 4: a recipe for disaster during the first. Round but, again

470
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 4: we're looking for a three round, strategy not a one round.

471
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 4: Strategy AND i do still like them Against South florida

472
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 4: because both teams play, fast And South florida plays fifteenth

473
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:13,959
Speaker 4: in pace, Naturally so this is going to be probably

474
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,639
Speaker 4: a seventy plus possession, game even maybe seventy three seventy

475
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 4: five possessions in that. Neighborhood and again that's just more

476
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 4: possessions to realize your per possession. Advantage SO i certainly

477
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:29,719
Speaker 4: don't Mind louisville here to cover the, spread but you, can,

478
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:31,680
Speaker 4: again you can play them on the money line because

479
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 4: we have this double up spot where we could potentially

480
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 4: cash out if they face the other pick from this.

481
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 4: Subregion So I'm i'm taking them on the money line

482
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:41,920
Speaker 4: in the first, round. RIGHT i THINK i have them

483
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 4: about minus two, forty and there's minus two twenty five's out,

484
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 4: there there's even a minus two. Ten BUT i like

485
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:50,639
Speaker 4: them on the money line in the first, round so

486
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 4: that way we don't have to necessarily worry about the

487
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 4: spread angle here and from, there you, Know louisville's high

488
00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 4: variant style of launch in threes is a good thing

489
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:05,080
Speaker 4: because they Play Michigan, state And Michigan state plays excuse,

490
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 4: me on the slower, side as does you know their

491
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 4: potential next, Opponent yukon plays on the slower, Side so

492
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 4: the high variance thing there For louisville becomes.

493
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:15,440
Speaker 2: Good then at that.

494
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 3: Point now we've Mentioned yukon a few, times not necessarily

495
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 3: this daunting favorite that is just going to steamroll the.

496
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 1: Competition so you're bringing in another one in.

497
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 3: This subregion into the, fold and That's Central florida and say,

498
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 3: less It's Mick cronin going to The East.

499
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 1: Coast it's been well.

500
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 3: Documented and this, team also from A bruin, perspective has,

501
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 3: injuries billdeo.

502
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 1: Dents are they both?

503
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 3: Available if, not you, know how far could they drop

504
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:42,920
Speaker 3: in terms of offensive?

505
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:44,880
Speaker 1: Efficiency so walking THROUGH yu.

506
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:47,919
Speaker 3: LIKE, ucf and if they do end up matching up With,

507
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 3: yukon what does that particular matchup look like to?

508
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 2: You, YEAH i mean this is an interesting.

509
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 4: Spot so we've GOT, ucla like you, said going east To,

510
00:22:56,800 --> 00:23:00,400
Speaker 4: philadelphia WHEREAS ucf gets to stay in their time, zone

511
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 4: so that's a little bit of a help. There and

512
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 4: also ucla slow paced. Team so again we like underdogs

513
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:11,160
Speaker 4: when they face slow paced teams because less possession. Advantage

514
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 4: SO i HAVE ucf here as kind of a four

515
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 4: and a half point, underdog but the market's making them

516
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,480
Speaker 4: five and a half. Points that also translates on the money,

517
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 4: line so you, KNOW i HAVE ucf at plus one ninety,

518
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:26,719
Speaker 4: five and there's plus two of five's out there At,

519
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:30,159
Speaker 4: DraftKings so that's an attractive. Price SO i just have

520
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 4: this as a value FOR. Ucf you could also PLAY

521
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 4: ucla if you wanted to. Substitute if you'd LIKED ucla

522
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:41,119
Speaker 4: better THAN ucf, here you could USE ucla here because

523
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,160
Speaker 4: the slow pace when they would end up Facing, yukon

524
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 4: who is also on the slower side of, pace would

525
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,479
Speaker 4: keep the game, closer and that means more chance for an.

526
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 4: Upset SO i certainly understand if people wanted to flip,

527
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 4: to you, KNOW, ucla AND i totally recommend, it Right

528
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 4: like you, KNOW i want you to do this gif

529
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,679
Speaker 4: and guy to March madness maybe with my, picks but

530
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:04,120
Speaker 4: also if you like something, else.

531
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:05,120
Speaker 2: Do it your way with your.

532
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,199
Speaker 4: Picks but my pick IS ucf just BECAUSE i have

533
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 4: value in that first round, there and then they would

534
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 4: get by far the weakest two seed In, yukon, which

535
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 4: like you, said is Why i'm double dipping in that

536
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 4: half of the. BRACKET i have The huskies power rated

537
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 4: about nineteen points better than the AVERAGE d one, team

538
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 4: Whereas Iowa, State, purdue And houston the other two seeds

539
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 4: are all above twenty two and a half points. Better

540
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 4: so that's a full three and a half point difference

541
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:31,440
Speaker 4: there in terms Of yukon being worse than the other

542
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 4: number two. Seeds and again part of the reason is.

543
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:36,919
Speaker 4: Pace yukon plays an adjusted tempo around six to four

544
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 4: and a half possessions per. Game they're banged up silas

545
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:43,199
Speaker 4: To Mary Jalen, stewart both. Questionable so this would be

546
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 4: a dream spot to GET ucf on the money, line PAST,

547
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 4: ucla Past yukon and Face louisville and then we can

548
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:49,440
Speaker 4: just cash.

549
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 1: Out what is marsh known.

550
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 3: For, well obviously college, hoops spring, training baseball as.

551
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 1: Well we got.

552
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 3: That but it's also a time when we roll out

553
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 3: the absolute best deal on That Action. Pro head on

554
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,639
Speaker 3: over To actionnework Dot com slash pro to get six

555
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 3: months of pro for just forty nine to ninety. Nine

556
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 3: get in on the access now so you get all

557
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 3: the best picks at the best. Prices no we're waiting

558
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:14,439
Speaker 3: thirty minutes and grabbing stale. Lines we'll also HAVE ncaa

559
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:17,360
Speaker 3: player props powered by your analytics team that has smashed

560
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 3: it every single. March that's actionework Dot com slash pro

561
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 3: to get yourself signed up. Today all, right onto The midwest,

562
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 3: region and the first thing THAT i noticed here on

563
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 3: the sheet is that you only have one, pick so

564
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 3: you were Avoiding michigan's sub part of the. Region talk

565
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 3: me through Why michigan has scared you off from a

566
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:36,360
Speaker 3: rollover strategy.

567
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 4: Perspective, YEAH i think it's just They, hey they are so,

568
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 4: good you, know they're, Incredible they're one of the two

569
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 4: best teams in the. Nation but B i just don't

570
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 4: see a team equipped to beat. THEM i mean Maybe,

571
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 4: alabama BUT i, think you, know even in that, CASE

572
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 4: i would Have michigan as very comfortable, favorites around nine point.

573
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,680
Speaker 4: Favorites SO i just don't really want to Target. Michigan

574
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 4: So i'm going to go to the bottom half of the,

575
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 4: region to The Iowa state region side of the bracket.

576
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 3: There, Yeah Iowa state is a team that if they

577
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:14,160
Speaker 3: played the entire tournament At Hilton, coliseum they probably cut

578
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 3: down the.

579
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 1: Nuts and win The.

580
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 3: Natty but obviously they got to take their show on the.

581
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,360
Speaker 3: Road do you think there's more to their vulnerabilities than

582
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 3: just the.

583
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 1: Venue, YEAH i.

584
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,920
Speaker 4: Mean, certainly there's you, know other things that can come into.

585
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 2: Play But milia Maam, chilovich he is unbelievable three.

586
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 4: Point shooter at home and you know neutral or on the,

587
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 4: road He's he's a very good three point, shooter but

588
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:40,880
Speaker 4: it is still not quite as. Good so that's one

589
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:44,200
Speaker 4: THING i noticed early on in the season was those stark.

590
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 4: Splits AND i actually took him in an under when

591
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:49,399
Speaker 4: they after they had had a long home stretch and

592
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:53,119
Speaker 4: then went on the road TO i forget what team it,

593
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 4: was but he ended up not shooting so well and

594
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 4: the under on his points hit that. Day BUT i

595
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,199
Speaker 4: love him BECAUSE i always seem to be able to

596
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,040
Speaker 4: know how to bet. HIM i think every Time i've bet,

597
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 4: Him i've won a, bet whether it's his over or his.

598
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 4: Under SO i definitely understand him as a. Player But

599
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 4: i'm Picking tennessee in that side of the bracket BECAUSE

600
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 4: i Think tennessee is a very strong sixth seed AND

601
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,679
Speaker 4: i think they're going to be able to Give Iowa

602
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 4: state a run for their. Money and, again this is

603
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 4: really about the holistic, part the three round, part because

604
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 4: we don't know Who tennessee is gonna face in the first,

605
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:30,199
Speaker 4: round SO i don't know if im wanna take him

606
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 4: on the spread or the money. Line if it's gonna

607
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 4: BE smu Or Miami, ohio it doesn't really. Matter we'll

608
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 4: figure out some way to Bet tennessee in the first.

609
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 4: Round but the lynchpin of this part of the bracket

610
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:46,439
Speaker 4: is the second game against My Virginia. Cavaliers but you, Know,

611
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 4: VIRGINIA i love, them but they play the slow. PACE

612
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 4: i think they're borderline three four, seed kind of Like.

613
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,440
Speaker 4: Gonzaga But tennessee is just such a strong six seed

614
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,640
Speaker 4: THAT i have this game at almost coin, flip and

615
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,919
Speaker 4: SO i think it's just value there Where tennessee And

616
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:08,439
Speaker 4: virginia would be matched up really. Well it brings me

617
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 4: back to the glory days of the early nineties with

618
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 4: The Tennessee virginia women's basketball. Matchups Don staley taken On

619
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 4: Pat Summits tennessee. Balls those were some of the best

620
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 4: matchups you'd ever seen in women's. Basketball but it's going

621
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 4: to Be Tennessee virginia this time in the men's side of,

622
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 4: things AND i have it as a coin, flip which is.

623
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:27,919
Speaker 2: Exciting So i'll be.

624
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 4: Rotten for My, wahoos BUT i think the wallet would

625
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:33,159
Speaker 4: be written For tennessee and that, hypothetical and from there

626
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 4: it's a date With Iowa. State so you, Know Iowa

627
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 4: state plays, Slow tennessee plays on the slow. Side that'll

628
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 4: keep things a little bit. Closer i'd Have tennessee as

629
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 4: four and a half point, dog SO i think they

630
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 4: can keep it close and moneyline them Against Iowa state

631
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 4: there to make it to The elite.

632
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,720
Speaker 1: Eate just popping the hood on your methodology.

633
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 3: Here do you put any stock in you, know recent

634
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 3: performance in THE ncaa. Tournament Rick, barnes who was a

635
00:28:56,960 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 3: bit of a punching bag for Underwhelming march finishes at

636
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 3: least the last three, years has made it to the

637
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 3: second Weekend sweet sixteen and then back to back trips

638
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 3: to The elite. Eight does that put a little wind

639
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 3: in your sales when you're back in the.

640
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 2: Balls, NO i don't even consider that at.

641
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 4: All. Honestly IT'S i just look at each tournament and

642
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 4: just try to find the team THAT i think is

643
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 4: equipped to make a run and beat that number two.

644
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 4: Seed and for me this, YEAR i think It's Tennessee virginia.

645
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 4: Good of, course you, know the pace and stuff is

646
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 4: all right there as. WELL i just Have tennessee as

647
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 4: equally as strong a team As. Virginia we might get

648
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 4: a little bit better odds On tennessee than we would

649
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 4: on getting odds FOR uva to Beat Iowa state. There

650
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 4: so it's just kind of a little bit of a

651
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 4: strategic play in terms of just the.

652
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 3: Price let's not turn to The south region and it's

653
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 3: a normal region with one pick on each side of

654
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 3: the region for your. Strategy no first Four, shenanigans no Spread,

655
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 3: shenanigans just two teams on the money.

656
00:29:57,760 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 1: Line let's.

657
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 3: START i, MEAN i have to go ahead and grab

658
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 3: this team BECAUSE i mean it's the first True cinderella

659
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 3: that you've mentioned, here and it's the McNeese.

660
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 1: Cowboys having watched a.

661
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 3: Lot Of southland, BASKETBALL i thought that they were drawn

662
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 3: dead after they went to triple overtime with Ut Rio.

663
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 3: GRANZ i figured they would have no gas left in the,

664
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 3: tank even though they were playing on their home, floor

665
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 3: and they just brought it To Steven, fawson the second

666
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 3: best team in their. League they play, that you, know

667
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 3: frenetic defensive. Pace they want to turn you over and

668
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 3: they're very successful in. It and unlike many of the

669
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 3: mid majors that have earned the auto bid this. Year

670
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 3: they have a guy Who i'm pretty confident is going

671
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 3: to be rich playing professional. Basketball maybe not necessarily in THE,

672
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 3: nba But Larry johnson looks like somebody who's got the

673
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 3: next fifteen years penciled in as someone who's cutting checks

674
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 3: and getting paid to make jump shots because he's a

675
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 3: multi level. Scorer he had major offers from just about

676
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 3: every power. Conference he was a four star, recruit ends

677
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 3: up going To, creighton red, shirting and then finds his

678
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 3: way to.

679
00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 1: McNeice so they have some star power in this and

680
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 1: then when.

681
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 3: You look, ahead obviously they're opening With, vandy then they

682
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 3: get the winner Of nebraska Against, troy and then potentially

683
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 3: a meeting With.

684
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 1: Florida and what's interesting About florida is did they peak too?

685
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 3: Early because in THAT sec tournament they were letting up

686
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 3: open looks left and right to That vanderbilt team and

687
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 3: their guard play still concerns. ME i think they have

688
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 3: the absolute highest floor of any one seed because they

689
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 3: are arguably the best offensive rebounding team in.

690
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 1: The last decade in college.

691
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 3: Hoops but when you're leaving in the hands Of lee

692
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 3: And Boogie, flans these, guys can you.

693
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 1: Know have a stinker or.

694
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 3: Two so walk me, through, McNeice what you're thinking and

695
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 3: what drew you to them in the first.

696
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 4: Place, yeah and this is this is the spot you

697
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 4: were talking, about you, know where if you get cold,

698
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 4: feet like if they Play, florida we've already got enough

699
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 4: from McNee. State if they end up Playing, florida you

700
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 4: could consider cashing out. There so this could be a

701
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 4: two round play if we wanted. To but, again it's

702
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 4: all just, price and, uh you, KNOW i think McNee

703
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 4: STATE i have them about ten and a half points

704
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 4: worse Than. Vandy the market's at eleven and a half

705
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 4: and on the money, line you, KNOW i think it's

706
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 4: pretty close to plus four seventy five is What i've,

707
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 4: got AND i think that's around where the market.

708
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 2: Is so it's just to play.

709
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 4: There THAT i have a little bit of value on.

710
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 4: This so you, know if you wanted to do the

711
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,960
Speaker 4: spread and then you'd have to do an extra round Against,

712
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 4: Florida SO i think you just got to take. Them

713
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 4: BUT i, mean if they cover the spread and don't,

714
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 4: win that doesn't do anything for this strategy. Anyway so

715
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 4: you got to take them on the money, line BUT

716
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 4: i just have a little bit of value, Here and,

717
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 4: honestly this was my last. PICK i had seven teams

718
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 4: pretty locked in AND i was struggling to find an eighth,

719
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 4: pick AND i really dug in and just kind of

720
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 4: came up with Mcney state. Here so this is my

721
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 4: least confident, play my LEAST i would say favorite, play

722
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 4: but it is my eighth of eight, plays And i'm

723
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 4: gonna take them because plus four seventy five Against vanderbilt

724
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 4: is a little bit of value by my numbers, here

725
00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 4: and then they would have a similar, pricing probably more

726
00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 4: in the four four, range maybe even a three in

727
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 4: front of it Against nebraska simply because they would have

728
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 4: won a, game so it would mean something to their power,

729
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 4: rating And nebraska IS i have power rate a little

730
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 4: bit worse Than. Vanderbilt so either, way you, know just

731
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 4: another spot where you would get McNee state two wins

732
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 4: and it would be good. Enough And, NEBRASKA i, mean

733
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 4: obviously they started out with that really long unbeaten run

734
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 4: twenty games, there but it's been pretty much a fifty

735
00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 4: to fifty teen since. Now of course in an amazing.

736
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 4: Conference so there's. That BUT i Think nebraska really high

737
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 4: variants as, well you, know over a fifty percent three

738
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 4: point attempt rate to field goal tempt, rate and they

739
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:44,640
Speaker 4: forced their opponents into that so high variance style, there

740
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 4: and that's what you like to see again when you're

741
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 4: taking an, underdog is you want that extra variance in McNeice. Themselves,

742
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 4: well they don't shoot it's on a. Three's they force

743
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 4: their opponent to shoot it's on a. Threees so it

744
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 4: could just be a spot where if you're missing shots

745
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 4: from the outside For nebraska or For, vandy there's upset.

746
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 3: Potential let's close this out on the bottom of the

747
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 3: bracket in The south And houston's might pick to win

748
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 3: the national.

749
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 1: Championship but as you brought.

750
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:14,960
Speaker 3: Up multiple, times this is a conversation about, price AND

751
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,920
Speaker 3: i think the market agrees with me That houston is

752
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:20,760
Speaker 3: one of those teams that clearly has all the makings

753
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:21,280
Speaker 3: of a national.

754
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 1: Champion so you're going to get really.

755
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 3: Generous prices if you go ahead and play against them

756
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 3: on the money. Line so in the bottom portion of,

757
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:30,880
Speaker 3: this you're going to start with This TEXAS a AND

758
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 3: m team that right from the get go is going

759
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:36,760
Speaker 3: to be playing in a contrasting battle Against Saint mary's

760
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 3: who wants to play super, slow and The aggies who

761
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 3: want to take it in the opposite.

762
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 2: Direction, yeah.

763
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,440
Speaker 4: Exactly and you, know the market's Making TEXAS a AND

764
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 4: m a three and a half point. UNDERDOG i have

765
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:48,799
Speaker 4: them about between two and a half and. Three so

766
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 4: it's just again price value, there and that's really the

767
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 4: whole Reason i'm looking At TEXAS a AND m in

768
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 4: the first. Round in the second, round, again it's just

769
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 4: about That houston extremely slow, pace fewer possessions to realize their.

770
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:07,840
Speaker 4: Advantage and we've seen it be a vulnerability For houston

771
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 4: throughout the, years Right they've they've had an Early exeter,

772
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:14,799
Speaker 4: Too they've also had some really strong. Runs but it

773
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 4: just does increase that potential a little. Bit you think

774
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:20,880
Speaker 4: about the two one seeds that got Upset virginia And,

775
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:24,359
Speaker 4: purdue both slower paced. Teams so it does have the

776
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 4: potential to create more upsets when you have these slower

777
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 4: paces because it keeps the margin. Closer so that's the whole.

778
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:34,480
Speaker 4: Reason so you can Moneyline TEXAS a AND m Versus

779
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:38,399
Speaker 4: Saint mary's money line Versus, houston and then it's kind

780
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 4: of wide. Open you, know it could Be. Illinois it

781
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:46,240
Speaker 4: could be who, Knows North. Carolina they're banged UP. Vcu

782
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 4: it's certainly of the potential to face, anyone but there's

783
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 4: also a chance, that you, know if they Beat, houston

784
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,640
Speaker 4: that it might be enough to cash out as. Well

785
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:57,879
Speaker 4: BUT i, mean if they Be, HOUSTON i like them

786
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 4: to pretty much have a chance against any even if It's.

787
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 2: Illinois all, right.

788
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:04,840
Speaker 3: Let's do a quick recap. Here in The, west you

789
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:06,840
Speaker 3: hand it out N C state And. Arkansas in the,

790
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 3: east Central florida And, louisville targeting potentially a Weak yukon

791
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 3: team that's at least leaking a bit of oil heading

792
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 3: in to The Big. Dance Saint john's in the top

793
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 3: half of that. Bracket in the, Midwest tennessee avoiding The

794
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 3: michigan side, altogether So tennessee is the only pick in The,

795
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 3: midwest and then closing it out as we just discussed

796
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 3: in The south with McNeese state And, TEXAS a AND.

797
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:28,359
Speaker 1: M i know that you like to.

798
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 3: Be cold and analytical at, times and sometimes you know

799
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 3: you're fading teams that you have an emotional connection, to

800
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 3: or you, know backing teams that you know historically have

801
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 3: been more of a, rival at least from your rooting.

802
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 1: Perspective putting all that emotion, aside.

803
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:43,399
Speaker 3: Which one do you think is the best investment if

804
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 3: you had to give out just one from this?

805
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 2: Group, ooh this is.

806
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 4: TOUGH i think my favorite is Probably. Tennessee uh JUST

807
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 4: i love that they Get virginia and it's gonna be

808
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:00,160
Speaker 4: it's gonna be a coin flip in my opinion in

809
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:02,400
Speaker 4: for a six to three, game and then you, know

810
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 4: you get iOS stated and neutral. Venue SO i really Like.

811
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 4: TENNESSEE i think the other one THAT i would be

812
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 4: most excited from in A cinderella story is PROBABLY ucf just.

813
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 2: In that week yukon.

814
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 4: Side BUT i ACTUALLY i really LIKE ucf AND Nc

815
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:19,400
Speaker 4: state from The cinderella.

816
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 3: Side that'll do it for this episode of The Action network.

817
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 3: Podcast my thanks to Doctor Nick giffin for joining. Me

818
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:26,360
Speaker 3: make sure to check out The Big bets On campus

819
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 3: podcasts as well for MORE ncaa tournament. Content you can

820
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:31,960
Speaker 3: also subscribe right here to The Action network podcast so

821
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 3: you don't miss out on anything that we put out

822
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 3: across every single sport that we cover here at The Action. Network,

823
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 3: finally please leave us a five star rating.

824
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 1: And review on your way.

825
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 3: Out you can say whatever you, want but that five

826
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 3: stars really helps us spread and continue to.

827
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 1: Grow everything we're doing here at The Action Network.

828
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:51,000
Speaker 3: Podcast thanks, again and best of luck with all your

829
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:53,400
Speaker 3: bets this week as the madness kicks off and we'll

830
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:53,840
Speaker 3: see at the.

831
00:37:53,840 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 1: Window Action network reminds you please gamble.

832
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:05,560
Speaker 3: Responsibly if you or someone you care about has a gambling,

833
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:08,719
Speaker 3: problem help is available twenty four to seven at one

834
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:09,760
Speaker 3: eight Hundred gambler