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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg surveillance and the markets in particular, they's

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Speaker 1: done a belief that there's no way Trump could become president.

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Speaker 1: I continue to argue if there is a plausible tax,

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Speaker 1: the divergent monetary policy world that we live in is

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Speaker 1: not necessarily supportive of the US equity markets. This is

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Speaker 1: que three on its way to QUEI fourteen. Whether we

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Speaker 1: like it or not, that's the reality, and as traders,

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Speaker 1: that's how we have to deal. Bloomberg Surveillance. Your link

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Speaker 1: to the world of economics, finance, and investment on Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Good morning everyone, Michael McKee and Tom Keane. In our

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Speaker 1: next hour a conversation with James Bullard the St. Louis

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Speaker 1: fad Loss to talk about in this hour as well.

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Speaker 1: We'll touch on US politics here in a moment. Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance this morning brought to by kone RESIDEC Accounting Tax Advisory.

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Speaker 1: To minimize risk, to capture value in private equity, you

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Speaker 1: need Cone resnec where forward thinking creates res halse find

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Speaker 1: out how cons dot com c O h N R

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Speaker 1: e z n I C K Cone Resnick dot com.

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Speaker 1: We thought we would talk to someone experienced in the

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Speaker 1: ups and downs of American politics. He was on the watch.

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Speaker 1: This was after Lincoln, I think after Andrew Johnson as well,

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Speaker 1: and Chuck Gabriel with Kapitalfa was looking at the nuances

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Speaker 1: of the Republican Party. Chuck Filmatically over at CNN. Of course,

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Speaker 1: our former wonderful colleague, Uh just put out a tweet.

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Speaker 1: I don't have it in front of me, but basically,

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Speaker 1: uh Filmatically reporting that Mr Trump, who will be with

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Speaker 1: Helper in a Heilman tonight, Mr Trump saying that we

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Speaker 1: really don't need a NATO. That gets everyone to sit up.

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Speaker 1: Chuck Gabriel, what is the ramifications of those statements to

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Speaker 1: our allies abroad? Well, I mean that that has this, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, on top of the President basically watching a

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Speaker 1: baseball game in Havana during a moment for the EU

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Speaker 1: community in Brussels. Uh, that, you know, that just compounds

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Speaker 1: the wound, so to speak, or run salt in the wound.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's just a politically you know, much

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Speaker 1: much too, an unvarnished distillation of at least some feelings

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Speaker 1: in America that that the U S you know, from

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Speaker 1: those obviously who didn't fight World War World War two

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Speaker 1: and haven't made the great sacrifice that and and haven't

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Speaker 1: really talked to the greatest generation you know who for

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Speaker 1: years have uh fretted that America puts too much into

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Speaker 1: NATO and that we ought to have a more European

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Speaker 1: contributions sort of a two way street, so to speak,

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Speaker 1: from the Europeans. So Trump has taken that to a

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Speaker 1: very unfortunate extreme at a very unfortunate moment. And it's just,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's it's a bit of a metaphor for

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Speaker 1: what's been going on on the campaign trail. Well, it's unfortunate.

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Speaker 1: Two days ago, Mr Trump said that to the Washington Post,

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Speaker 1: a very extensive interview by the Post of Mr Trump

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Speaker 1: in Washington. And the bottom line is the Post rode

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Speaker 1: it up and you can read the transcript on the

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Speaker 1: Post website. I urge everybody to do. That is that

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump doesn't seem to have a coherent foreign policy.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't uh, he can't explain any of of his proposals,

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Speaker 1: uh for what he would do in the future. Chuck now,

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Speaker 1: and I know it, and it's and it's and it's

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Speaker 1: somewhat disconcerting. You know, we're in the camp that you know,

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Speaker 1: has tried to be somewhat calming on this. I think

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Speaker 1: he is winging a great deal of this. He is

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Speaker 1: absolutely responding to a very strong populist strain. However, so

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Speaker 1: you know, it requires a lot of market patients, in

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Speaker 1: particular when you look at him as it would be

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Speaker 1: commander in chief who could really disrupt economic and security

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Speaker 1: but but we believe that you know, were he to win,

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Speaker 1: fears that the President Reagan was going to be very,

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Speaker 1: very disruptive and he was an anti establishment candidate that

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Speaker 1: really disrupted Washington. He turned out. Okay, We think that

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Speaker 1: you know, that Trump would prove to be a sort

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Speaker 1: of a supply side antid regulation Republican working with the

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Speaker 1: So we think the markets would get a scare if

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Speaker 1: cry in that wall of worry like they have so

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Speaker 1: thousand nine, Mike, we try to keep the news flow

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Speaker 1: flat outstating withdrawing from NATO would be a catastrophic mistake. Well,

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Speaker 1: people's twos this morning. It's the interesting dynamic of this

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Speaker 1: campaign is the Donald talks and everybody else's is respond um.

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Speaker 1: Which raises a question, Chuck, if Trump were to be

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Speaker 1: how would official Washington. I'm not talking about the politicians

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Speaker 1: how would they respond to somebody like that? Well, I

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Speaker 1: think that that's something that in their own wisdom, those

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Speaker 1: who are voting for Trump have have thought through or

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Speaker 1: feel instinctively, and that is that he'll have tremendous leverage. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's not as though a Republican Congress can

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Speaker 1: ignore him, or that he would ignore Republican Congress. And

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Speaker 1: it's not as though he could move towards rationality that

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Speaker 1: or that he won't move towards rationality. I think he would,

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Speaker 1: but he'd have to. You know, he would have leverage.

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Speaker 1: He'd have very wary um. You know, American allies across

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Speaker 1: alive branch and perhaps to use some of that leverage

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Speaker 1: to you know, make maybe not at teriff on Chinese

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Speaker 1: Chinese you know, he could he could tone that down

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Speaker 1: for sure, but he would have leverage in Washington to

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Speaker 1: make changes. And those who are voting for him really

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Speaker 1: want to blow up the Republican Party and they want

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Speaker 1: to blow up Washington. So I think they view that positively,

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Speaker 1: that that he would force change in Washington. How should

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Speaker 1: Secretary Clinton respond all this? I mean, she you know,

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Speaker 1: Podesta and company, you know, quite regularly Uh, it is.

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Speaker 1: You know, part of the old playbook has always been

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Speaker 1: the fall, you're not going to fret about having to

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Speaker 1: has about seventy of the delegates she needs to beat

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Speaker 1: another seven hundred delegates. Probably won't wrap it up formally

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Speaker 1: in April, but it's but it's all but done so

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Speaker 1: even though she's had to make some moves um you know,

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Speaker 1: like like uh in order to to finesse the challenge

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Speaker 1: from Sanders. For instance, she's just proposed that undocumented immigrants

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Speaker 1: have you know, Obamacare subsidies and benefits. That's something she'll

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Speaker 1: have to defend in the general, but she but she's

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Speaker 1: in a fairly strong position. I don't think they're fretting

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Speaker 1: the fact that Trump is dominating with headlines like this,

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Speaker 1: and particularly with those kinds of incendiary statements about removing

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Speaker 1: you know, about removing the US from the NATO alliance.

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Speaker 1: That's just something that's really incendiary. In the in the

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Speaker 1: flurry of news after the Belgium attacks, we heard from

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Speaker 1: all the presidential candidates, and uh, I think it's reasonably

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Speaker 1: fair to say that you didn't hear anything you didn't

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Speaker 1: expect to hear from any of them in terms of

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Speaker 1: their policy reactions. So does this have an impact on

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Speaker 1: the presidential race at all? Yeah? I think well, I

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Speaker 1: think the only impact, and it's such a wild card

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Speaker 1: is that it really you know, particularly with Ted Cruz

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Speaker 1: now you know, now looking at where where he is

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Speaker 1: in the race, he you know, with Jeb Bush's endorsement

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Speaker 1: this morning and John Kasik a real no show last night,

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Speaker 1: were a bit of a hiatus here. Now you know,

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Speaker 1: we're essentially not going to have votes for another two

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Speaker 1: weeks until we moved to Wisconsin. It will be a

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Speaker 1: big challenge for Kasik, uh, you know, and then we

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Speaker 1: move on to New York, which should be a big,

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Speaker 1: big day for Trump. So, you know, amid all of

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Speaker 1: it's it's kind of it's kind of hard to see

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Speaker 1: how crews can break through. Uh. And you know, for

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Speaker 1: the most part, those establishment candidates who in players who

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Speaker 1: this up, to change things. And so he's going to

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Speaker 1: try to out trump Trump in some respects and that's

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Speaker 1: only going to continue this. You know, these this negative

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Speaker 1: body language from Republicans that would be heirs to the

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Speaker 1: White House. Uh, you know, on a global basis for

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Speaker 1: the next few weeks. Let's come back with Gabriel of

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Speaker 1: Capital ELF as well. Mike Headlines out of the prosecutor

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Speaker 1: there in a news conference as the mastermind last truly

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Speaker 1: I I can't pronounce the name correctly. Was not arrested.

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Speaker 1: Initial reports him about an hour ago in custody. They

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Speaker 1: say he is not. They are still looking for him.

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Speaker 1: First headlines out of the press conference, Well, keep you

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Speaker 1: on top of all the details as they come out.

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Speaker 1: Ravonni Quinn was very careful with that it was media

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Speaker 1: reports earlier. It's a delicacy as we look at all

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Speaker 1: reports within the cacophony going on this uh morning and

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Speaker 1: day after the terror attacks in Brussels. Futures on stair

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Speaker 1: up to del futures up the don't forget. In fifty

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Speaker 1: minutes our conversation was St. Louis FED President James Bullard

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Speaker 1: now checking with Michael R. Got the latest news headlines,

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Speaker 1: Michael and my time. Just as you just mentioned a

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Speaker 1: few moments ago about the search for the susmac in

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Speaker 1: the Hustle's Terror attacks news website, d h net has

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Speaker 1: withdrawn that report that authorities had arrested twenty four year

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Speaker 1: old that Jean Les Tromi. He was believed to be

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Speaker 1: one of the three men on video wheeling baggage cards

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Speaker 1: at the airport. Meanwhile's day broadcaster RTBF reports two brothers

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Speaker 1: have been identified at the suicide bombers who blew themselves

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Speaker 1: up at the airport and at the metro station. Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump and Hillary Clinton have extended their leads after yesterday's

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Speaker 1: primaries and Caucus is Meanwhile, former Republican presidential candidate Jeb

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Speaker 1: Bush will endorse ted Cruse Global News twenty four hours

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Speaker 1: a day, powered by our dred journalists and more than

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Speaker 1: a hundred fifty news bureaus from around the world. Michael

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Speaker 1: bar Meca Bar thanks so much. Oil weaker fractually three

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Speaker 1: barrel brent crude. The spread almost nothing for six maybe

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Speaker 1: two days ago. The spread is exactly the same of

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Speaker 1: those two major oil indicators a U O one eighty four.

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Speaker 1: Again in less than fifty minutes. Michael McKee and myself

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Speaker 1: with James Bullard of St. Louis The news update brought

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Speaker 1: to you by a sector spider e t S. Why

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Speaker 1: by a single stock when you can invest in the

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Speaker 1: entire sector. Visit sector spdrs dot com or call one

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Speaker 1: Flash and I'm kared Moscow U stock index futures they

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Speaker 1: are little changed this morning. Let's go to the first

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Speaker 1: word breaking news desk for today's morning call, and here's

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Speaker 1: Bill Maloney. Good morning, Bill, Good morning Karen. US futures

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Speaker 1: remained quiet today. Down futures lowered by four points, SB

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Speaker 1: and NASA futures are hired by a point. The US

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Speaker 1: Tenniel at one point nine three percent and up A

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Speaker 1: markets trade mixed. Germany gains one per cent on the

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Speaker 1: US economic front at ten o'clock, new home sales and

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Speaker 1: it's and thirty energy inventories after the Bella's night, Crispy

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Speaker 1: Creme ERPs view missed estimates, red Hack Q four billing's

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Speaker 1: growth declin quarter over quarter, and Nike Q three North

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Speaker 1: American futures orders and revenue missed estimates. Shares her down

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Speaker 1: four and a half percent pre market. Regarding earrings this morning,

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Speaker 1: General Mills was mixed in deal news. Origin Technologies boosted,

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Speaker 1: Apometrics offer to seventeen dollars a share and another New's

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Speaker 1: Kyle Basswin's right to challenge patent on Bogen's tech FITTERA

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Speaker 1: and Mark wins Jerry verdict to sec royalties from Gilead. Finally,

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Speaker 1: some of Your Wallshet upgrades and downgrades. Holly Frontier cut

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Speaker 1: to sell a Goldman, Sachs Novard's cut to market perform

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Speaker 1: at Larric and I h s cut to neutral over

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Speaker 1: at sun Trust Live from the First Breaking News Desk,

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Speaker 1: go on Bill Maloney. Karen thanks Bill to hear live

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Speaker 1: breaking news over your Bloomberg type squawk go and your terminal.

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Speaker 1: That's sq You a w K go and that's a

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike Karen, thanks so much

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg surveillance this morning. Butch by Investco. Investing isn't about

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Speaker 1: slash high Conviction Wisconsin, April five, Michael McKay. I guess

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Speaker 1: yesterday was sort of sort of kind of like sort

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Speaker 1: of man, we get a lot of buzz out of it.

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Speaker 1: The Wisconsin is like a big deal. Well, the real

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Speaker 1: question is what is Scott Walker do? Does he come

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Speaker 1: out against Donald Trump, endorsed one of the other two candidates,

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Speaker 1: and uh potentially have an impact on the race. Let's

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Speaker 1: continue our conversation now with Chuck Abriel from Capital Alpha Partners.

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Speaker 1: We talked earlier about the Democratic race being all but

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Speaker 1: over and you're feeling that Ted Cruz probably can't win

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Speaker 1: the nomination, but can he accumulate enough delegates to keep

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump from winning the nomination? And his Wisconsin the

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Speaker 1: key to that, Uh it probably hope hope he better

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Speaker 1: hope it's not because you know right now he's not

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Speaker 1: really registering up there. It will be interest thing to

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Speaker 1: see if Scott Walker were to endorse him. Scott Walker

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Speaker 1: is a brilliant politician, and I think he and he

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Speaker 1: may know that that Ted Cruz could be a tough

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Speaker 1: sell in Wisconsin. Uh, Frankly Kasik would be an easier

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Speaker 1: sell in Wisconsin. So I think Cruz is in a

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Speaker 1: very difficult position because after Wisconsin, of course moved to

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Speaker 1: New York, where Trump is ahead by forty fifty points

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Speaker 1: in some some past poles. And then you have a

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Speaker 1: huge trove of delegates in a bunch of states up

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Speaker 1: the northeastern the eastern seaboard there, you know, with New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut,

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Speaker 1: Rhode Island, Maryland. Those are all in March twenty six,

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Speaker 1: so uh, excuse the April. So you know, we have

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Speaker 1: a hiatus for a while here, and it's really hard

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Speaker 1: to see where where crews can catch on. We're moving

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Speaker 1: to states that don't favor him, many of them either

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Speaker 1: win or take all or sort of a hybrid that

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Speaker 1: would allow you know, a really big disproportionate vote take

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Speaker 1: for Donald Trump. And so it's a very difficult periods.

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Speaker 1: We had to Wisconsin right now for I haven't asked

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Speaker 1: this question yet of anybody because we haven't gotten to

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Speaker 1: the point where we really want to declare the race

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Speaker 1: is over. But but why don't we start now with

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Speaker 1: you check what's the calculation for either Trump or Hillary

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Speaker 1: Clinton in choosing a vice presidential candidate. Yeah, well, if

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Speaker 1: Trump wins, you know, he's either he might either win

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Speaker 1: any contested convention or you know, amid a tremendous amount

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Speaker 1: of disunity going in. So the question is whether you know,

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Speaker 1: he might try to tap a candidate that would be

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Speaker 1: a bit of an olive branch that could uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: could be someone that could be a little bit more

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Speaker 1: acceptable to the to the establishment and to to those

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Speaker 1: that worry about him. You know, Kasik might have seemed

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Speaker 1: a strong candidate, but some frankly think, you know, the

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Speaker 1: more they seems to kask he's he's a little strange.

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Speaker 1: Uh you know, Marco Rubio you might have thought would

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Speaker 1: have been a great candidate. And the old days, the

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Speaker 1: old manages that you want to you want to vice

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Speaker 1: president presidential candidate to round out the ticket that would

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Speaker 1: help you in one state, get you geographically and ideologically balanced.

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Speaker 1: So it'll be hard to see. I mean, let's just

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Speaker 1: hope that Mr Trump doesn't have a you know, a

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Speaker 1: moment like Ross Barrowe did, and he comes up with

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Speaker 1: something out of true right field, you bring that up

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Speaker 1: a third party? I mean, I guess I've heard a

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Speaker 1: little bit out of the last couple of days. But

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Speaker 1: do you just push that aside that all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden is April the third party becomes tough. Is that correct? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: except that you know, you do have this never Trump

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Speaker 1: movement that that's pledged to spend a hundred days to

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Speaker 1: do whatever it takes to try to block him before

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Speaker 1: the July convention, and they have discussed, you know the

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Speaker 1: concept of if necessary, a third party candidate, which is

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Speaker 1: essentially the all but blow up the party rather than

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Speaker 1: let uh you know, Trump take it over. So you know,

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Speaker 1: it was leading that charge leading I saw, I saw

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Speaker 1: a Healey Barber thing out on Twitter. I mean he's involved,

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Speaker 1: as you know, the establishment, Chuck, who's the establishment, who's

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Speaker 1: leading in charge? I know, I think that phrase is

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Speaker 1: very much overuse. But there are some really sort of

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Speaker 1: high bound conservative groups. And by the way, many friends

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Speaker 1: and admire these folks for a long time, but you know,

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Speaker 1: they're they're they're like you know, the National Review and

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Speaker 1: uh and some others that you have very very strong

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Speaker 1: feelings and uh, you know there and and it's they

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Speaker 1: feel that the party is theirs. And again, I uh,

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Speaker 1: with all due respect, I think that's the one reason

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Speaker 1: that Trump is now getting beginning to you know, hitt

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Speaker 1: in Arizona in the last two national polls. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's it's time for a change. And you know the

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Speaker 1: fact that these these these old conservative think tank groups

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Speaker 1: are are mounting everything they can to throw at Trump

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Speaker 1: to try to block him just reinforces you know what,

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Speaker 1: what many have found it up. Have you seen any

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Speaker 1: evidence you're succeeding. No, I've seen no evidence they're succeeding.

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Speaker 1: And and and frankly, you know, I'm not so sure.

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Speaker 1: As much as I really admire Jeff Bush and would

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Speaker 1: have voted for him that his endorsement is somewhat proof

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Speaker 1: of that. I think, I think at this stage of

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Speaker 1: the game, the party, my own personal feeling, might be

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Speaker 1: better off to try to become unified, because you know,

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Speaker 1: there are only two outcomes that can come, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: from here. We either have a really disunited party that

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Speaker 1: you know, works its way into a contested convention. That's

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Speaker 1: a disaster, or they have a somewhat united convention around

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Speaker 1: a candidate that's that's you know, a little bit off putting,

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Speaker 1: certainly a random walk, but one that has that has

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Speaker 1: at least no chance this fall with you know, with

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Speaker 1: his a lure and appeal to to to to great

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Speaker 1: the Democrats and the nature. Thank you so much. A

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Speaker 1: terrific briefing of course that before the helper in Heileman

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Speaker 1: interview with Mr Trump tonight coming up in thirty five

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Speaker 1: minutes Michael McKee and I with J. James Bullard of

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Speaker 1: the St. Louis Fed coming up with all due respect.

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