1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:18,799 Speaker 2: Single best idea. It was a sterling day on the 3 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: show with all sorts of good conversations. I'll be quick 4 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 2: this morning. I said this earlier in setting up Nancy 5 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 2: Lazarre of Piper Sandler, and that it's a blur for 6 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 2: me and Paul. We don't know common are Gohan who 7 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 2: was with us forty five minutes ago, Who's going to 8 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:37,199 Speaker 2: be with us forty five minutes from now. We have 9 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:41,159 Speaker 2: this incredible team including Art Wellow telling us what to do, 10 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 2: and side Benson, and they're all just tick by tick 11 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 2: saying Nancy Lazar's next kind of thing. But I remember 12 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:53,160 Speaker 2: crystal clear what Nancy Lazar told me ninety days ago 13 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 2: about the underinvestment in the private sector in America. She 14 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 2: has radically changed tone with this new legislation, which will 15 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 2: provide for Reagan like investment in America, but within it 16 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 2: already a government slow down. 17 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 1: We may already be in that environment right now. I actually, 18 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 1: when I look at the government spending data, I can 19 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:21,039 Speaker 1: see some incremental restraint. I think I get booed when 20 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 1: I talk about that, but you can see it if 21 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 1: you look very closely at the monthly Treasury statement. The 22 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: federal outlaid data are starting to stall out. You're hearing 23 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 1: it from companies, software defense consultants. You are hearing companies 24 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:38,760 Speaker 1: say the government's being a little bit more stringy. You're 25 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 1: seeing it in the job data. Federal employment has declined 26 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:44,679 Speaker 1: for the past five months. It's going to given what 27 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:48,200 Speaker 1: happened yesterday, it's likely to accelerate. Federal employment is likely 28 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 1: to continue to decline. So I'm seeing government spending being 29 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:56,240 Speaker 1: chipped away. I might almost like a David Stockman moment, 30 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 1: which is like, you know, wake up and smell the coffee. 31 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: The the deficit is way too big. Government spending is 32 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 1: way too big. I think people, some people within the 33 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: administration understand that, and you are starting to see some 34 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 1: incremental restraint, and not this year, but maybe next year 35 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: the deficit can come in a little bit better than expected. 36 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 2: Nancy was a Piper Sandler. The Stockman moment there, folks, 37 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:24,080 Speaker 2: was the back side of the Reagan administration when they 38 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:27,640 Speaker 2: had to really confront budget challenges, perhaps like what we 39 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 2: have right now. A privilege always to have Douglas Irwin 40 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:34,959 Speaker 2: with us of Dartmouth College, his book Against the Tide 41 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 2: is the iconic read on American trade. We talked to 42 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 2: him about William McKinley and Trump's affection for the president 43 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:47,640 Speaker 2: of the late late nineteenth century. Here Douglas Irwin on 44 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 2: the moment at hand. 45 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 3: I think the standard responses you sort of have to 46 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 3: look through the price effects, but you can't look through 47 00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 3: the GDP of fact. 48 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 2: Yes, thank you. 49 00:02:56,639 --> 00:02:59,519 Speaker 3: So this is really why the said will be in 50 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 3: a conunder if we see higher prices and lower growth. 51 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:05,079 Speaker 3: You know, on one hand you want a titan to 52 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:06,799 Speaker 3: take care of the price impact. On the other hand, 53 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 3: you want to loosen to take care of the GDP effect. 54 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 3: I think it really depends on what sort of configuration 55 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 3: of tariffs we see in August and coming months. 56 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 2: Doug Irwin with US of Dartmouth College. I'd love to 57 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:23,080 Speaker 2: see a new effort out from him, but he's been 58 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 2: really prolific and very important in this time of tariffs 59 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:30,959 Speaker 2: across the nation. 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