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Speaker 2: And friends and families walking riding on passing the roads

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Speaker 2: every day. Remember they're real people with loved ones who

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Speaker 2: need them to.

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Speaker 1: Get home safely.

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Speaker 2: Protect our cyclists and pedestrians because they're people too, Go safely.

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Speaker 2: California from the California Office of Traffic Safety and Caltrans.

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Speaker 1: There's a core idea in science that experiments should be repeatable.

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Speaker 3: If you do an experiment the same way different times,

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Speaker 3: you should get the same result.

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Speaker 1: However, there is a loophole.

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Speaker 3: There's a loophole in science.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and that loophole opens a window into everything we

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Speaker 1: think is true about reality, in the universe and everything.

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Speaker 3: Do welcome to Daniel and Jorge Explain the Universe.

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Speaker 1: In which we try to take the entire universe and

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Speaker 1: break it into bite sized pieces so you can enjoy

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Speaker 1: them with your afternoon coffee.

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Speaker 3: Amore. I'm a cartoonist, I draw comics online.

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Speaker 1: And I'm Daniel. I'm a particle physicist. I spend my

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Speaker 1: days smashing protons together at the large Hadron colliders to

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Speaker 1: try to reveal the secrets of the universe, mostly so

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Speaker 1: that I can tell them to you in this podcast.

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Speaker 3: Basically, only one of us is qualified to be explaining

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Speaker 3: things to you on this podcast.

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Speaker 1: That would be the cartoonist. Yeah, Physicists are not qualified

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Speaker 1: usually to be explainers. Mostly we just try to solve

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Speaker 1: the mysteries of the universe. We don't try to tell

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Speaker 1: anybody about them.

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Speaker 3: Right, Mostly physicists just need explaining.

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Speaker 1: That's right. That's where the cartoons come in.

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Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, and spouses also, spouses of physicists probably have

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Speaker 3: to do a lot of explaining.

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Speaker 1: You've got some explaining to do, exactly. Yeah. So we're

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Speaker 1: here to talk to you about big questions about the universe.

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Speaker 1: And today's question is a really deep in basic question,

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Speaker 1: and it's about the very nature of reality. What is it? Hoge,

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Speaker 1: What are we going to talk about today?

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Speaker 3: Is the universe random or is it just chaotic? And

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Speaker 3: what's the difference?

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Speaker 1: Or is it run by some super being? And we're

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Speaker 1: actually just in their simulation. But that's a whole other.

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Speaker 3: Episode, that's a whole other podcast.

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Speaker 1: Right today, just the two sinister options, random or chaotic,

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Speaker 1: You might feel like, ooh, neither of those sound very cozy.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to live in either of those universes.

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Speaker 3: Well, the question basically breaks down to is the universe predictable?

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Speaker 3: Like can you predict what the universe is going to do?

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Speaker 3: Or is it that nobody can predict what the universe

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Speaker 3: is going to do.

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Speaker 1: Right, And I think that's why it's an awesome question

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Speaker 1: for science because for so many thousands and thousands of years,

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Speaker 1: I think humans probably felt like the universe around them

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Speaker 1: was totally unpredictable. I mean, they invented gods for this

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Speaker 1: and for that to try to describe how the universe

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Speaker 1: was out of their control and doing things that didn't

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Speaker 1: make sense if had some you know, will and agency, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: And then science comes along it says, actually, there are

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Speaker 1: rules and you can discover them. And slowly science starts

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Speaker 1: to creep in this description in the universe that locks

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Speaker 1: out this agency, this idea, this personality, and gives you

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Speaker 1: the sense that maybe the universe follows these rules. Right.

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Speaker 3: So we went out and as usual'll ask people on

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Speaker 3: the street do you think the universe is random or chaotic?

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Speaker 1: And here's what they had to.

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Speaker 4: Say, that's gonna okay, that's a that's a thinker there. Uh,

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Speaker 4: I would say, surely random. With randomness comes chaos. You

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Speaker 4: never know what will happen, but there's there's always a

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Speaker 4: probability and a chance of things, of certain things happening.

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Speaker 3: I'd like to say random.

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Speaker 2: I'm religious, so I feel like everything happens for a reason,

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Speaker 2: and yes it is random, but there's a purpose behind everything.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a mixture of both. Like it's random,

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Speaker 3: but it can appear chaotic because of.

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Speaker 5: How everything is truly chaotic, because like on a smaller level,

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Speaker 5: everything is like moving really fast, but at like a

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Speaker 5: bigger level, we don't see any of that.

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Speaker 1: Wow, So would you think of those answers or hey, I.

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Speaker 3: Think they were all over the place. They were actually

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Speaker 3: kind of random.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they were random and chaotic. I feel like I

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Speaker 1: feel like people had no idea what I was asking them.

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Speaker 3: You know, I feel like people just I feel like

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Speaker 3: they had no idea what they were answering.

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Speaker 1: Some of those people. I remember recording these interviews, and

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Speaker 1: some of those people, as the words were coming out

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Speaker 1: of their mouth, I felt like they surprised them as

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Speaker 1: much as they did me. Like it was all over

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Speaker 1: the place.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I feel like some people it's interesting. Some

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Speaker 3: people related to the question that question to the other question,

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Speaker 3: which is like does the universe have a purpose, Like

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Speaker 3: do things happen for a reason or do they is

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Speaker 3: it just like a random role to die and nobody's

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Speaker 3: really in charge. Like that's the question, right, Like, is

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Speaker 3: somebody in charge of the universe or is it impossible

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Speaker 3: for anyone to kind of predict what it's going to do?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? I think you're right. That does get at the

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Speaker 1: heart of the question. You know, what's going to happen

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Speaker 1: in the universe and can we tell and can we

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Speaker 1: influence it? Right? Is the universe sort of churning on

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Speaker 1: without our ability to change this direction at all in

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Speaker 1: some sort of way that's been determined since the dawn

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Speaker 1: of time? Or can we nudge it and push it

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Speaker 1: in one way or the other, you know, make the

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Speaker 1: calves win? Or can you if you jump up and

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Speaker 1: down in front of your television enough where the Warriors

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Speaker 1: win another NBA championship? You know, can you influence the world?

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Speaker 1: I think that's an interesting and deep question. Yeah, that's

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Speaker 1: probably the one people were actually having in their mind.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so maye let's go back in history, and I

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Speaker 3: like how you think about this question a lot, Daniel,

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Speaker 3: which is that you sort of start with early man,

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Speaker 3: like the cave men and women and women early humans

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Speaker 3: were really just kind of at the mercy of all

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Speaker 3: the elements and all the animals out there and the weather,

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Speaker 3: and so they to them the universe was this crazy,

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Speaker 3: random and chaotic place.

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Speaker 1: Right yeah. And it actually it touches on sort of

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Speaker 1: my personal theory of consciousness, which is that we developed

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Speaker 1: this awareness because we are looking out into the world

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Speaker 1: for other people or other ideas. Are there intelligences and

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Speaker 1: we have this hyperactive ability to see agency, to see

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Speaker 1: intention in something that we don't understand, and we imagine

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Speaker 1: that there must be a mind behind it. And so

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Speaker 1: I think for a long time people's view of the

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Speaker 1: world was that it was controlled by other greater minds.

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Speaker 1: You know, what controls the lightning? Why do some people

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Speaker 1: die of disease? All this stuff? And then as there.

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Speaker 3: Must be like a consciousness that is shooting out these

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Speaker 3: lightning bolts or making it rain, or you know, making

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Speaker 3: the sun come out.

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Speaker 1: Or killing my baby of some horrible disease, right, like,

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Speaker 1: there must be. It's hard to live in this world

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Speaker 1: if you don't have the sense that there's somebody else

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Speaker 1: in charge.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of suffering and a lot of pain,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of unexplained events, and it's nice to

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Speaker 1: think somebody else out there is taking care of it,

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Speaker 1: or somebody's in charge of it. But there's a reason,

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Speaker 1: right yeah, that there's a reason, that there's some design,

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Speaker 1: it's not just random. But then as history progresses, as

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Speaker 1: we were saying earlier, you know, science comes along. It says, well,

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Speaker 1: there are seemed to be some rules, not just like

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Speaker 1: that anything can happen. You can't have an ostrich here

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Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden the ostrich is gone.

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Speaker 1: There are some rules that limit what can happen. If

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Speaker 1: you know what's happening now, there's a certain set of

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Speaker 1: possibilities for what can happen in one second and two seconds.

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Speaker 3: And you know that's physics, right Well, it started with

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Speaker 3: like noticing patterns, right Like lightning doesn't just come out

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Speaker 3: of nowhere, it comes out when there's these dark clouds

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Speaker 3: in the sky, right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely absolutely, And people started noticing patterns and started

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Speaker 1: putting those together and then asking themselves, can I use

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Speaker 1: what I've learned in the past to predict the future?

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Speaker 1: Right Like, if I have the same set of events

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Speaker 1: that happened yesterday, I am I going to be able

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Speaker 1: to tell what's going to happen next week? If the

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Speaker 1: same thing happens. You know, if I roll a ball

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Speaker 1: down the hill yesterday and it goes up to a

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Speaker 1: certain speed, will the same thing happen tomorrow?

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Speaker 5: Right?

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Speaker 3: Right? Or if I throw a ball in the air

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Speaker 3: and I know which direction it's going and how fast

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Speaker 3: it is going, can I dig where it's going to

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Speaker 3: land exactly? If I build a catapult, can I basically

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Speaker 3: aim it right?

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Speaker 1: Exactly? And that's how military technology drove science even hundreds

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Speaker 1: of years ago. Right, Where do I shoot my cannon

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Speaker 1: exactly to get over that wall?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? Well, that's kind of where Newton came in, right,

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Speaker 3: Isaac Newton, And that's why they say he kind of

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Speaker 3: gave birth to science, right, or at least the scientific Revolution.

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Speaker 1: No, I think it was earlier than that. Newton came

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Speaker 1: along well after folks like Galileo and Francis Bacon and

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Speaker 1: those guys. They really were the first ones to do

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Speaker 1: experiments and to say, let's see what rules the universe

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Speaker 1: is following, and let's see if we can try to

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Speaker 1: deduce them and use those to predict the outcome of

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Speaker 1: future experiments. They really were the first ones to connect

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Speaker 1: the idea of a scientific universe to the actual experiments

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Speaker 1: they do to influence those ideas and to predict future results.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's the key is that here we've

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Speaker 1: developed a system science which can not only explain what

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Speaker 1: we've seen before, but can predict the future. Now you

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Speaker 1: are about to fire a cannon ball at your to me,

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Speaker 1: you want to know where is that ball going to fly?

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Speaker 1: And it's incredible that physics can do that. It can

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Speaker 1: literally predict the future if you know enough about the

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Speaker 1: situation right right.

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Speaker 3: It's kind of like Google Maps. Now it can totally

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Speaker 3: tell if you're going to be late to meeting or not,

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Speaker 3: or to a podcast recording they're going to they're late,

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Speaker 3: Like how long will it take to get home? They're like, oh,

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Speaker 3: they're going to be late.

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Speaker 1: It's not always a hard problem though. Jege for example,

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Speaker 1: it says if person equals whohe, then late equals true

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Speaker 1: every time every time. Data predictable data, and some of

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Speaker 1: these things are simple, but some of these things are complicated,

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Speaker 1: and it's incredible to witness as physics sort of builds

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Speaker 1: confidence and science develops our ability to predict you know,

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Speaker 1: chemical reactions and biological function, all sorts of things, and

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Speaker 1: then it gives this creeping sense of is there anything

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Speaker 1: that can escape science? Right? Can science predict everything? Like,

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Speaker 1: if you knew enough about the world, could you bring

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Speaker 1: it all down to cannonballs to predict where all those

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Speaker 1: cannonballs are going to fly and then tell exactly what's

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Speaker 1: going to happen.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's like kind of like if you know

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Speaker 3: that force equals mass times acceleration, like Newton figured out,

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Speaker 3: then you can predict things like cannonballs and catapults, and

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Speaker 3: you could possibly predict like how a room full of

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Speaker 3: particles move, right, Yeah, possibly you can extend that to

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Speaker 3: can you predict how the whole world works? Yeah, what

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Speaker 3: it's going to do and what people are going to do?

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Speaker 1: Extrapolate to the whole universe, right Yeah, I mean, and

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Speaker 1: that's the principle of determinism. It says, look, if things

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Speaker 1: follow rules, and the future is dependent only two things,

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Speaker 1: one the rules and two the things that are happening

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Speaker 1: now the current state. Right, given if you know exactly

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Speaker 1: where things are, imagine the whole universe is just a

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Speaker 1: bunch of tiny cannon balls, and you know the rules

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Speaker 1: of those cannonballs, and you know the position and direction

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Speaker 1: of motion of all those cannonballs. Then in principle, given

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Speaker 1: a super powerful universe sized computer, you should be able

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Speaker 1: to predict the future one to five ten seconds into

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Speaker 1: the future, a thousand seconds into the future.

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Speaker 3: Like every single molecule, atom, subatomic particle. You should be

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Speaker 3: able if it follows rules, you should be able to

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Speaker 3: kind of track where it's going to go. Is you

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Speaker 3: tell you based on where things are now, what's gonna happen?

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Speaker 1: Exactly.

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Speaker 3: It's kind of like this idea of a clock, right,

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Speaker 3: is the universe giant clock just kind of clicking along

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Speaker 3: or is there some kind of magic inside of it

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Speaker 3: that makes it unpredictable?

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Speaker 1: Right exactly? And the idea of the universe just being

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Speaker 1: a huge clock, is both exciting and terrifying. Right. It's

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Speaker 1: exciting because like, wow, can you imagine we could understand

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Speaker 1: the universe that well, that we could predict the future?

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Speaker 1: Think about what we could do, Right, But it's terrifying

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Speaker 1: because it's sort of like you're trapped in this science

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Speaker 1: cage where you have no influence over the world and

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Speaker 1: everything you do and know and say, and that joke

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Speaker 1: you're gonna make in that fart you're gonna let slip

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Speaker 1: are all predictable, right, All those things are predictable. That's scary.

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Speaker 1: It makes you feel like you are part of that

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Speaker 1: watch and you're just clicking a long because the you're

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Speaker 1: reacting to things around you and your initial conditions, and

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Speaker 1: so that's terrifying.

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Speaker 3: And I think we have kind of an innate sense

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Speaker 3: of like rejecting this idea that we're trapped, right. We

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Speaker 3: everyone wants to feel like they have free will, Like

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Speaker 3: everyone wants to know that they have a choice, right, Well.

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Speaker 1: I guess so my kids don't feel that way, you know,

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Speaker 1: like why didn't you hit your sister? Well she hit me,

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Speaker 1: you know, like, well, so what do you have? No

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Speaker 1: free will? Like you're completely determined by her behavior. I

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Speaker 1: have that argument with my kids so many times. I'm

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Speaker 1: always thinking about the philosophical echoes of that.

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Speaker 3: My kids are always rebelling. They're like, we want free will.

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Speaker 3: Don't tell us what to do?

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Speaker 1: I see, but they want you to follow rules. They're like,

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Speaker 1: you promised daddy we could have ice cream, right, and

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Speaker 1: so therefore you have to there's no more decision to

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Speaker 1: be made.

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Speaker 3: Kids are so unfair.

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Speaker 1: They're philosophically inconsistent. I think it's really the problem with kids.

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Speaker 3: Yeah they're cute, but.

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Speaker 1: If they just read some more Nietzsche, you know, and

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Speaker 1: some some Carl and some Popper or whatever, they would

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Speaker 1: be easier to be around.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, forget those picture books. Let's introduce it.

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Speaker 1: applecard dot com. I think there's something fascinating about the

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Speaker 1: deterministic view of the universe, but probably people out there thinking, Okay,

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Speaker 1: maybe in theory you could predict the whole universe, but

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Speaker 1: in practice impossible. I mean, you don't have a universe

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Speaker 1: sized computer to break the whole universe, and even to

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Speaker 1: predict like you know, a person is a huge number

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Speaker 1: of articles and so to do that calculation just seems impractical, right.

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Speaker 3: Right, it's practically possible, but I think people revel just

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Speaker 3: to the idea of it, right, Like, are my thoughts

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Speaker 3: my thoughts or just something that I'm programmed and that

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Speaker 3: I will inevitably have and do?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And that's a really deep question. And so we

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Speaker 1: started out with prehistoric man feeling like the universe is

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Speaker 1: full of random not random, but unexplained agency and intelligence

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Speaker 1: all the way to like now, scientific physical determinism says, actually,

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Speaker 1: the universe just clicks along like a watch, right, and

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Speaker 1: there's no free will. So let's take one step back

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Speaker 1: from that, and that's chaos. That says, well, maybe the

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Speaker 1: universe is deterministic, sure, but that doesn't mean it's necessarily

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Speaker 1: practical for you to predict it because the way things

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Speaker 1: play out is really sensitive to exactly how things started.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think I think some people who responded to

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Speaker 3: their question maybe weren't sure about the difference, right, Like,

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Speaker 3: what's the difference between something being chaotic and something being random? Right?

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Speaker 1: And so let's drill into that. So let's take, for

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Speaker 1: an example, the roll of a dice. Right, people think

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Speaker 1: of rolling dice as random, but actually it's chaotic, meaning

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Speaker 1: that it's hard to predict, but it is deterministic.

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Speaker 3: Oh what do you mean?

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Speaker 1: If you knew exactly how I threw the dice, like

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Speaker 1: exactly the direction and the spin, and all the molecules

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Speaker 1: of the air, then you could treat them all like

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Speaker 1: the little cannon balls, little particles. Then you could model

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Speaker 1: how it rolls, and you could in theory, predict exactly

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Speaker 1: how the dice rolled every time.

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Speaker 3: Meaning like if if I'm seeing footage of you throwing

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Speaker 3: to die, and like I pause the video just as

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Speaker 3: the die leave your hands, then I could you know

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Speaker 3: know where they are, I know which direction are going,

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Speaker 3: how fast they're going. I could run some kind of

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Speaker 3: computer simulation to like follow the die and predict what

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Speaker 3: they're going to do when they bounce off the table

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Speaker 3: and roll around. I could potentially predict what the dye

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Speaker 3: are going to show.

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Speaker 1: That's right, because we're saying that the universe in that

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Speaker 1: case is deterministic, and so you should be able to

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Speaker 1: predict the future given enough information about the setup. Right now,

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Speaker 1: that's a hard problem, and that's why we use dice,

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Speaker 1: right because it's really difficult and nobody can practically like

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Speaker 1: bring a mini computer into Las Vegas and use that

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Speaker 1: to predict who's going to win it Craps, right though,

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Speaker 1: in theory, In theory, you could if the universe was

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Speaker 1: deterministic but very sensitive to exactly how somebody's rolling the dice. Right,

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Speaker 1: when you throw the dice at Craps, if you flip

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Speaker 1: it this way or that way, then it's going to

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Speaker 1: bounce slightly differently, and how it's going to hit that

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Speaker 1: the felt on the table. It's all very very sensitive,

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Speaker 1: and a very small change and how you throw it

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Speaker 1: can result in a totally different number. That's what we

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Speaker 1: mean by chaos.

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Speaker 3: It means that it's like the butterfly effect, right, like

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Speaker 3: the idea that if you butterfly flaps is wighing here,

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Speaker 3: it's going to have a huge effect, maybe potentially on

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Speaker 3: the weather and on the other side of the world.

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Speaker 3: It's like a very sensitive system.

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Speaker 1: That's right. The weather is a great example because we

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Speaker 1: understand all the processes of weather. I mean, it's hot air,

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Speaker 1: it's cold air, it's water. We know that stuff. It's

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Speaker 1: pretty simple chemistry. But all together, an entire planet is

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Speaker 1: really difficult to describe because it's huge and it's really sensitive. Like,

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Speaker 1: as you say, a butterfly flapping its wings in China

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Speaker 1: could change the way this air flows, which could change

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Speaker 1: the way that air flows, which bounces off this building,

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Speaker 1: which turns into a rainstorm, which collides with this cloud

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Speaker 1: and causes a hurricane. Right, it's not true that every

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Speaker 1: time a butterfly flaps its wings you get a hurricane.

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Speaker 1: But sometimes so.

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Speaker 3: Weather is chaotic, but it's not random, is that what

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Speaker 3: you're saying that rent Like, if we could keep track

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Speaker 3: of every single butterfly in the world flapping its wing,

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Speaker 3: we would be able to predict the weather if we

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Speaker 3: had a giant supercomputer the size of the Solar System.

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Speaker 3: But since we don't, then weather it seems random, But

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Speaker 3: actually it's chaotic exactly.

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Speaker 1: And that's exactly what scientists are trying to do. They're

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Speaker 1: building bigger and bigger and faster computers to try to

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Speaker 1: simulate more and more of the Earth's atmosphere to get

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Speaker 1: better and better predictions of weather. In fact, I think

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Speaker 1: like all the top ten supercomputers in the world are

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Speaker 1: devoted to that problem, like modeling the weather, because it's important.

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Speaker 1: But you're exactly right, it's actually chaotic, meaning it's deterministic

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Speaker 1: but really sensitive to exactly how it started. But it

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Speaker 1: seems random because it's too difficult for us to calculate,

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Speaker 1: and principle we should be able to, but we can't.

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Speaker 1: Another example is flipping a coin. Right, Based on how

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Speaker 1: you flip the coin, you should be able to model

437
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 1: how it spins through the air and how it bounces

438
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 1: off air molecule, and how it hits the ground and

439
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 1: where it lands. Right, But it's a difficult problem. So

440
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 1: we can use it to model randomness to say it's

441
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:44,360
Speaker 1: kind of like randomness. Really it's just chaotic though, But.

442
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:48,680
Speaker 3: Then if I flip the coin one hundred times, most

443
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 3: likely half of those times will behead and half of

444
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,399
Speaker 3: those times will be tails. Right, So where does that

445
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,639
Speaker 3: fit into chaos theory? Like why is it predictable on

446
00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 3: a statistical basis?

447
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:03,479
Speaker 1: Okay, fascinating, that's an emergent phenomenon, right. That says, if

448
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 1: you understand the tiny, little local laws of physics, like

449
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 1: the laws of how the particles inside the coin move,

450
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,480
Speaker 1: you should be able to predict some larger effect. And

451
00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,159
Speaker 1: it's true, there is a simple or description of that

452
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 1: larger effect. Right, if you understand how these things work,

453
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,160
Speaker 1: So physics works on these layers. Right. You can either

454
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 1: understand it a very low layer and try to model

455
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 1: it all the way up to a higher layer, or

456
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 1: you can just try to get an understanding of at

457
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,640
Speaker 1: a higher layer, just the same way. You could say, well,

458
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 1: I can understand the way canniball flies by modeling all

459
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 1: the particles inside of it, or you could just use

460
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 1: F equals M, which treats the whole canniball like one particle.

461
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 1: If that's just a question of at what layer you're

462
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 1: modeling something? Right?

463
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 3: Okay, so a coin is chaotic but not actually random.

464
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 1: But not actually random yet if the universe is deterministic,

465
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 1: then a coin is chaotic but not actually random.

466
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, got it, got it.

467
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 1: But then there's the question of that's the really the

468
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 1: nugget of the question is is the universe deterministic? You know,

469
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:05,159
Speaker 1: if you have a particle or a billiard ball or

470
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:08,400
Speaker 1: cannonball or whatever, and you understand direction it's going, can

471
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 1: you predict its future out into infinity? Right?

472
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 5: Right?

473
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:13,680
Speaker 1: Can you tell exactly what's going to happen?

474
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,479
Speaker 3: But there's so many factors leading up to me tossing

475
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:21,120
Speaker 3: the coin that it's so unpredictable that it's it feels random.

476
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,400
Speaker 1: That's right. And so we have to separate between what's

477
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 1: practical and what's in theory possible. Okay, anything that's chaotic.

478
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 1: We're saying, in theory, if you knew enough, you could

479
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 1: predict it, right, whereas but in practice that we can't.

480
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 1: So it's it's so it seems seems random.

481
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,399
Speaker 3: Random number of generators and computers when they try to

482
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 3: come up with a random number, it's not really random,

483
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:45,880
Speaker 3: you're saying, it's just an algorithm. That's very that's chaotic.

484
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 1: That's right. Computers, by construction are deterministic, right, We've built

485
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,360
Speaker 1: them to be deterministic. Every time you run a program,

486
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:54,120
Speaker 1: it should give you the same answer if you give

487
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 1: it the same input, right, Right, there's no way for

488
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,679
Speaker 1: computer to do anything but that. It's like a series

489
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 1: of life gates. And you know, how it's implemented is

490
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 1: not important. But you know, it's a system for doing

491
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 1: deterministic calculations. That's what a computer is. So it's impossible

492
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:10,399
Speaker 1: for computer to be truly random.

493
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:10,639
Speaker 4: Right.

494
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 1: All the random number generators in your favorite Python code

495
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 1: are actually pseudo random number generators. They're just chaotic. They

496
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,479
Speaker 1: take a seed a number to start from, and then

497
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 1: they spin off of that and generate a sequence of numbers.

498
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:24,880
Speaker 1: But if you give them the same seed twice, they'll

499
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: generate the same sequence of numbers twice. Wow.

500
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 3: So like if you're playing a video game and you're

501
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 3: inside of a virtual world, that world is totally determinating. Absolutely,

502
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 3: it's been crunched on by a logical computer.

503
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 1: Exactly, you do the same move every time, You'll kill

504
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,359
Speaker 1: that boss character every single time. And not even in

505
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,879
Speaker 1: sillyvator games like you know, like punch Out where the

506
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 1: guy is totally predictable, but even in more complicated ones.

507
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 1: You know, if you're in the same world and you

508
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,160
Speaker 1: do the same thing, the same thing should happen, because

509
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,360
Speaker 1: computers are not capable of true randomness.

510
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 3: Before we keep going, let's take a short break.

511
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 1: When you pop a piece of cheese into your mouth

512
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 1: or enjoy a rich spoonful of Greek yogurt, you're probably

513
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 1: not thinking about the environmental impact of each and every bite,

514
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 1: but the people in the dairy industry are US Dairy

515
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 1: has set themselves some ambitious sustainability goals, including being greenhouse

516
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 1: gas neutral by twenty to fifty. That's why they're working

517
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 1: hard every day to find new ways to reduce waste,

518
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:27,120
Speaker 1: conserve natural resources, and drive down greenhouse gas emissions. Take water,

519
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 1: for example, most dairy farms reuse water up to four

520
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 1: times the same water cools the milk, cleans equipment, washes

521
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 1: the barn, and irrigates the crops. How is US dairy

522
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:40,400
Speaker 1: tackling greenhouse gases. Many farms use anaerobic digestors that turn

523
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 1: the methane from maneuver into renewable energy that can power farms, towns,

524
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 1: and electric cars. So the next time you grab a

525
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 1: slice of pizza or lick an ice cream cone, know

526
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 1: that dairy farmers and processors around the country are using

527
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 1: the latest practices and innovations to provide the nutrient dense

528
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 1: dairy products we love with less of an impact. Visit

529
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 1: usdairy dot com slash sustainability to learn more.

530
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 2: There are children, friends, and families walking, riding on paths

531
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 2: and roads every day. Remember they're real people with loved

532
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:09,679
Speaker 2: ones who need them to get home safely. Protect our

533
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 2: cyclists and pedestrians because they're people too, Go safely. California

534
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:16,159
Speaker 2: From the California Office of traffic safety and caltrans.

535
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:19,320
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536
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537
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538
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539
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540
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541
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542
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543
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544
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545
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546
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547
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548
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549
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Speaker 1: Terms apply.

550
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 3: So the question is is our universe like a computer simulation? Right?

551
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 3: Like the question is is is our universe also being

552
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 3: crunched by a logical computer that can't be random?

553
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 1: That's right? And for a long time people thought the

554
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,879
Speaker 1: universe was deterministic. I mean, we were able to predict

555
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 1: the outcome of every experiment. Things were going along really well.

556
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 3: And then of course we can throw a spaceship and

557
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:31,680
Speaker 3: land it on the moon.

558
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,440
Speaker 1: That's pretty crazy, right, yeah, that well, that's pretty risky,

559
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,199
Speaker 1: but yeah, that's pretty amazing. You have to certainly have

560
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,159
Speaker 1: confidence in our ability to predict the future if you're

561
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,679
Speaker 1: going to get into that cannon ball get shot out

562
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 1: into space. Right.

563
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 3: Well, I remember in Gratz Cloths, in this classic it's

564
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 3: called linear dynamical systems. But I remember in class, this

565
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 3: guy was so the professor was so cocky. He's like,

566
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 3: of all the technologies that contributed to putting a man

567
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 3: on the moon, this is the one that made it happen.

568
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 3: This linear algebra equation, we would not be able to

569
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 3: put a man in the mood. And so that that's

570
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,120
Speaker 3: how powerful this idea is, right, Like, if you can

571
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 3: predict f equals in a you can put a man

572
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:10,120
Speaker 3: on the mood.

573
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,880
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, it's exactly right. And it's given us great

574
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,119
Speaker 1: power over our environment. I mean, everything that we have

575
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 1: is because we have mastered a lot of the laws

576
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,119
Speaker 1: of our environment and use them and bent them to

577
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 1: our will to improve our lives. Right, So it certainly works,

578
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 1: and we rely in every day, every time you get

579
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:26,920
Speaker 1: into a car or an airplane, you rely on it

580
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 1: working the same way it did yesterday, right, right, right,

581
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 1: So that's that's a relief. But it was about one

582
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 1: hundred years ago when people started seeing things that they

583
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 1: couldn't explain, and it was quantum mechanics that told us

584
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 1: that maybe the universe is not deterministic. Maybe these little

585
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 1: particles don't follow the same rules that like billiard balls

586
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 1: and basketballs and larger objects follow, and maybe they're not

587
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 1: even deterministic, meaning you do the same experiment twice with

588
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 1: tiny particles, you could get different outcomes even if you

589
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 1: do it exactly the same way.

590
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 3: And this all came about when people started noticing that

591
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 3: like light and things had a minimum size, right, Like

592
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:11,120
Speaker 3: light doesn't come in infinitely small bits of light, Like

593
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 3: there's chunks of light.

594
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 1: That's right. Yeah, Einstein was looking at some experiments it

595
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 1: didn't quite make sense, and the only way he could

596
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 1: explain them was if light came in little packets, and

597
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 1: that's what quantum means. Quantum means a unit or a packet,

598
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,959
Speaker 1: and so he suggested that maybe light comes in these

599
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 1: little packets. But then it had all these far reaching consequences,

600
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 1: you know about light going through mirrors and through prisms,

601
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 1: and the way people could understand that was only if

602
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 1: there were various probabilities for things to happen, and it

603
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 1: began this whole revolution of quantum mechanics, which then Einstein

604
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 1: tried to put the brakes on, right. He was like, wait,

605
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 1: hold on a second, guys, this is crazy talk. There's

606
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 1: no way the universe works this.

607
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 3: Way, meaning like this idea of quantum stuff only made

608
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 3: sense if the universe worked based on probabilities, not like deterministically.

609
00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:59,719
Speaker 3: You know, you have to describe things with wave function,

610
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 3: and things aren't really like point particles or kind of

611
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 3: fuzzy things.

612
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 1: That's exactly the point is that there's this fuzziness in

613
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 1: the universe and quantum mechanics because there's these minimum size

614
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 1: objects and the way they interfere with each other and

615
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: the way the calculations happen. Quantum mechanics predicts that the

616
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 1: universe is fundamentally random, and it means that, for example,

617
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 1: you have an electron, you don't know exactly where it is.

618
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 1: There's a probability distribution that says, most likely it's here,

619
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 1: maybe it's there, Maybe it's somewhere else.

620
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 3: Is it that we can't Is it like a randomness,

621
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 3: like we can't know where it is, or that there's

622
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 3: this trade off between like momentum and position.

623
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 1: Right, that's exactly the right question, and that's exactly what

624
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 1: people were asking. They looked at these equations and they said, well,

625
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 1: is it that we can't predict where the electron is,

626
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 1: like it's totally impossible to predict, Or is it that

627
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 1: we just don't know where it is that we haven't

628
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 1: figured it out how to get that information? Right? Does

629
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 1: the information not exist or do we just not have it?

630
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: And so Einstein is the one who said it must be

631
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 1: some hidden variable. There must be something that these particles

632
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 1: are carrying, some piece of information that determines exactly what's

633
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 1: going to happen to them, but we just don't know

634
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 1: what it is.

635
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 3: Oh I see.

636
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 1: To him, it was crazy to think that you could

637
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 1: shoot an electron into an experiment twice and get two

638
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 1: different answers, But that's what appear to happen. People set

639
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 1: up these careful experiments where you would shoot a photon

640
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 1: one at a time. You would shoot photons into an experiment,

641
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 1: and every photon would do something different, and then as

642
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 1: you would accumulate a bunch of photons, it would add

643
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 1: up to give you a distribution that made sense to you,

644
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 1: just the same way when you flip a coin, you

645
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 1: get heads, you get tails, you get heads, you get tails.

646
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 1: It seems random, but eventually it builds up to fifty

647
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 1: to fifty. Right, Quantum mechanics tells us all we can

648
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: do is predict the eventual distribution. We can say, if

649
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 1: you measure a thousand electrons, some of them will go

650
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 1: here and some of them will go there. It says

651
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 1: you can't predict any individual one. All you can predict

652
00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 1: is the distribution of outcomes.

653
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 3: So Eistin was like, maybe a photo on is kind

654
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 3: of like the coin we were talking about before, Like

655
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 3: maybe it seems random to us, but really it's just

656
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 3: kind of this chain of little local events that actually

657
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 3: make it predictable.

658
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 1: That's right.

659
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 3: If we knew all that information inside, Like maybe it

660
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 3: just looks fuzzy to us and we can't tell where

661
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 3: it is, but inside that particle really actually knows where

662
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:20,719
Speaker 3: it is.

663
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 1: It's exactly right.

664
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 3: That's what he wanted to believe, right.

665
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 1: That's what he wanted to believe, and you got to

666
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 1: sympathize with the guy. Right, it's hard to imagine that

667
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 1: the universe would not be deterministic. I mean, we spent

668
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 1: hundreds of years building up our confidence in science and

669
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 1: in physics, especially as being able to predict the future,

670
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 1: and just of saying, basically, the universe follows rules. Right,

671
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 1: So now all of a sudden, you're telling us, what

672
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 1: there's like dice in there?

673
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 3: Right?

674
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 1: Is there some randomness like every time you shoot an

675
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 1: electronics experiment, somebody or something or the universe is making

676
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 1: like a random decision about where it's going to go.

677
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 1: It seems crazy, So you're absolutely right. He suggested that

678
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 1: a simpler explanation is that they're carrying along another piece

679
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,440
Speaker 1: of information that we just don't have access to or

680
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 1: can't measure or didn't measure, and that that's actually determining

681
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:06,400
Speaker 1: in a totally predictable way what's going to happen to

682
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 1: each particle. That was his solution to the problem.

683
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 3: Well, he famously said God doesn't play dice, right.

684
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 1: Famously quoted as saying that I'm not sure he actually did,

685
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 1: but it's oh, it's really But it's a pretty good

686
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 1: summary of what he believed.

687
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 3: Fake news about hindsight.

688
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 1: Well, like a lot of fake news is a kernel

689
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 1: of truth in it. He certainly wanted to believe in

690
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 1: a deterministic universe and it made sense to him. And

691
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 1: you know what it makes sense to me. I mean

692
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 1: the idea that there's like a true random number generator

693
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,440
Speaker 1: somewhere in the universe that's making a decision every time

694
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 1: you shoot an electron into something. It doesn't make any

695
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 1: sense to me intuitively. You know, not that the universe

696
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 1: has to make sense to me intuitively, but it doesn't.

697
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 3: So you're saying, the quantum mechanics says that there is

698
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 3: a randomness in things, and so where is that randomness

699
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 3: actually in like the position of particles in the verb,

700
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 3: their velocity, in their very being, in their energy level.

701
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 3: Where is this randomness of everything?

702
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 1: Well, there's randomness at every level. I mean, there's randomness

703
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 1: between every time you look at something. So say, for example,

704
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,800
Speaker 1: you measure an electron, you see it's a certain place,

705
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:19,839
Speaker 1: then you look away, right, because you can't monitor an

706
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 1: electron every moment or every nanosecond. Even you look away,

707
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 1: what does the electron do between when you last saw

708
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:28,360
Speaker 1: it and when you'll next see.

709
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 3: It, meaning like if I know where it is and

710
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 3: how fast it's going, and then I look away and

711
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 3: I look again, is it going to be where I

712
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 3: think it's going to be?

713
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 1: Yes, exactly. And so every moment of an electron or

714
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 1: a particle's life is determined by quantum mechanics, which says

715
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 1: there's a probability distribution. It's not like the electron is

716
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:50,240
Speaker 1: doing something behind your back. It's got one particular path

717
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 1: that you're just not aware of behind your back, and

718
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:55,439
Speaker 1: you just don't know it. It doesn't have a specific path.

719
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 1: It's not like it goes from A to B via

720
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 1: particular path. It has a probability of different ways to

721
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 1: get there. WHOA And if you don't look, then it's

722
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 1: sort of doing all of them at once. They all

723
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:10,480
Speaker 1: have different probabilities, and those probabilities are the things determined

724
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 1: by the laws of physics. So there's still are laws.

725
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 1: Physics still does tell the universe how to run. It's

726
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 1: just that those laws are probabilistic. It says, look, mister electron,

727
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 1: instead of telling you exactly where you're going to go,

728
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:23,759
Speaker 1: I'm going to say you have a seventy percent chance

729
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 1: to doing this and a thirty percent chance of doing that.

730
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 3: So that's where the fuzziness and the randomness comes in.

731
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 3: It's not that it like, it looks fuzzy, it's just

732
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 3: that it's just hard to predict where it's going to be.

733
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,280
Speaker 3: It's impossible. I mean, you know all this information, it's impossible.

734
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 1: It's impossible to predict the future.

735
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 3: Impossible.

736
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 1: Exactly. You can predict the various likelihood of this or

737
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 1: the likelihood of that at the particle level, but you

738
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 1: can't say what one particle is going to do. Wow. Now,

739
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:50,439
Speaker 1: Einstein said, that's crazy, right, there's no way that's true.

740
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 1: There must be a way to predict it must be

741
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:55,280
Speaker 1: there's some piece of information there. And then some guys

742
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 1: came up with an experiment. They came up with this

743
00:35:57,120 --> 00:36:00,799
Speaker 1: crazy experiment. It's based on an idea called bell inequality.

744
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 1: To test this theory, they said, let's see if the

745
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,959
Speaker 1: universe is really random, or if there's some hidden piece

746
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 1: of information that's actually secretly determining things.

747
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 3: Like let's see if I really can't predict where that

748
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 3: electron it's going to go, or if it's actually like

749
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:18,200
Speaker 3: the electron knows it just won't tell us.

750
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, exactly. And so they set up this cool

751
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 1: experiment where they took a particle and they had to

752
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 1: shoot out two particles in opposite directions. And those particles

753
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 1: are therefore connected because they have to conserve momentum and

754
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:33,840
Speaker 1: they have to conserve energy and have to conserve spin.

755
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:36,279
Speaker 1: And so if you know something about one particle, then

756
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 1: you know something about the other particle. But both particles

757
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:41,879
Speaker 1: have equal probability to be like spin up or spin down,

758
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 1: or point this way a point the other way, but

759
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,840
Speaker 1: you know something about the combination of the two. And

760
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 1: so they came up with this really ingenious experiment to

761
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 1: measure how often you saw one spin up and one

762
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:55,799
Speaker 1: spin down, for example, And based on the outcome of that,

763
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 1: you could tell whether there was a secret, hidden piece

764
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 1: of inft that was controlling both particles or whether they

765
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 1: were both truly random. And the experiments are conclusive, and

766
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 1: it has been done as zillion times. And the experiment

767
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:12,240
Speaker 1: tells us that the universe at its core really is random.

768
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:15,359
Speaker 1: That's making a random decision every time you look at

769
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 1: these particles.

770
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 3: So beyond the shadow of a doubt, we know that

771
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 3: the universe is random.

772
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 1: The universe is random. Absolutely, there's no there's no escape clause,

773
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 1: there's no if hands or butts, there's no there's no loopholes.

774
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 1: The universe at the particle level is really random. Now,

775
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 1: you said something really interesting earlier. You know, even if

776
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:40,320
Speaker 1: the universe is random at the lowest level, that doesn't

777
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 1: necessarily mean that it's random at other levels, right, Like

778
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 1: we still got to the moon. Right. It's not like

779
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:47,759
Speaker 1: we're saying science doesn't work or you shouldn't get in

780
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 1: that airplane. Right. Science works at different levels, And even

781
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 1: if it's random at the very very small level, doesn't

782
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 1: mean that on average it's really predictable, right, Like we

783
00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 1: do know how basketballs bounce, right, And that's because the

784
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 1: randomness only applies to these tiny little particles, and over

785
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:06,839
Speaker 1: the ten to the thirty or whatever particles in a basketball,

786
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 1: that all averages out to something very very predictable.

787
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 3: Wow, So like random events Canada add up to predictable events?

788
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:14,839
Speaker 3: Is that kind of what you're saying?

789
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, Like you can't tell how any individual voter

790
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 1: is going to vote, but if you've done enough polls,

791
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 1: you can tell you know how the nation is going

792
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 1: to vote. At a cereal election.

793
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:27,400
Speaker 3: That worked out so well in the twenty sixteen election.

794
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe that wasn't the best example.

795
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 3: Totally predictable. At the level of particles, there is randomness,

796
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:43,239
Speaker 3: but maybe in the macroscale things are fairly predictable. Yeah, well,

797
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 3: but how does that affect things like free will? Does

798
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:50,279
Speaker 3: that mean that, like my brain, does quantum randomness give

799
00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:53,680
Speaker 3: me some sort of unpredictability or free will as you

800
00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 3: might call it, or is my brain also very predictable

801
00:38:57,560 --> 00:38:58,360
Speaker 3: in the long run.

802
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 1: It's a great question, and into the tiny crack in determinism,

803
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:03,960
Speaker 1: you know, saying that at the particle level, things are

804
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:08,880
Speaker 1: truly random. And there's flooded and enormous literature of consciousness

805
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 1: and all sorts of philosophy that try to connect free

806
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:14,960
Speaker 1: will to quantum randomness, you know, to say that this

807
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,279
Speaker 1: is the whole we needed, This is what breaks determinism

808
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:20,759
Speaker 1: and allows for me and my soul and God and

809
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 1: all the and all the things you want to cram

810
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:23,840
Speaker 1: into your universe.

811
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 5: Right.

812
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:28,520
Speaker 1: I'm not convinced that quant mechanics allows for free will,

813
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:31,359
Speaker 1: or for souls or you know, for all that kind

814
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 1: of stuff, but it certainly does dismantle the deterministic watch

815
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 1: like universe that we thought we had m So.

816
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:40,319
Speaker 3: Just because something is random doesn't mean you have free will,

817
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 3: Like it's just random.

818
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:46,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, exactly. And to sort of answer the question,

819
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:48,920
Speaker 1: you know, is the universe random or is it chaotic?

820
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 1: Turns out it's kind of both. Right. It's random at

821
00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:56,319
Speaker 1: the particle level, but it's chaotic at the macroscopic level. Right,

822
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:59,959
Speaker 1: Things do seem to be fairly deterministic at the macroscopic level,

823
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:03,240
Speaker 1: but then again they're too chaotic to really to really model.

824
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:05,439
Speaker 1: So it's not like you can predict the weather.

825
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 3: It's kind of a progression. Like it's random at the

826
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:11,240
Speaker 3: particle level. It's kind of deterministic at a medium range level,

827
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:13,280
Speaker 3: but then as you get to larger and larger systems,

828
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 3: then it's chaotic and it's practically unpredictable.

829
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, exactly right, So any answer you want there's

830
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 1: some place in the universe.

831
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 3: Is yeah, I just pick a random, random answer and

832
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 3: it will be yes.

833
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 1: So maybe that's why people answered it's such a such

834
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:35,839
Speaker 1: streams of gibberish to our question, because because they really

835
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:38,800
Speaker 1: deeply understood that the universe was both random and chaotic.

836
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 3: Wow, wisdom of the crowd, the.

837
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,280
Speaker 1: Wisdom of the crowd. Exactly, you average over ten random

838
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 1: people and there is some insight. Yeah, exactly, that's the

839
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 1: whole that's the whole problem.

840
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:50,319
Speaker 3: The answer is the answer is yes.

841
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:53,839
Speaker 1: So I think it's it's fun to think about that

842
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:56,280
Speaker 1: inste of the larger context. You know, like we started

843
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:58,800
Speaker 1: off thinking the universe was crazy, then we started to

844
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:00,799
Speaker 1: get some grips on it. Then we felt like, oh, oh,

845
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:02,919
Speaker 1: maybe the universe is sort of too tight a grip

846
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:05,359
Speaker 1: on us because it seems deterministic. And then we got

847
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 1: this crack thanks to quantum mechanics that says it's random.

848
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:10,360
Speaker 1: But I don't really know how comfortable people are with

849
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:13,320
Speaker 1: that crack. You know, to think that the universe doesn't

850
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:15,759
Speaker 1: know what it's going to do at any moment, like

851
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 1: they could do this, it could do that. That's sort

852
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 1: of terrifying. I understand Einstein's fear. That Einstein's dislike or

853
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:24,879
Speaker 1: disdain for that, and that leaves us in a sort

854
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:25,880
Speaker 1: of uncomfortable position.

855
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:28,319
Speaker 3: And it might get even crazier. Right, Like, let's say

856
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 3: that we build quantum computers and then there's AI based

857
00:41:31,160 --> 00:41:34,480
Speaker 3: on quantum computers that that would be even crazier.

858
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:36,480
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, I'd love to read that science fiction novel.

859
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:39,360
Speaker 1: That's how that's how AI develops free will.

860
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 3: Right, quantum computers, maybe more than.

861
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 1: Us, that's exactly right.

862
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:50,319
Speaker 3: All right, Well, thank you for joining us. I hope

863
00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:53,840
Speaker 3: that didn't seem like a random, random or chaotic discussion.

864
00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 1: But those are really fun topics. I think it's super

865
00:41:57,239 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 1: fun to try to wrap your mind around those things.

866
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:01,640
Speaker 1: And you know, one of the basic questions of physics

867
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 1: is not just what is the world made out of

868
00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:05,560
Speaker 1: or what are the bits and pieces? Butre like, what

869
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 1: are the rules? And are there rules? And you know,

870
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:10,400
Speaker 1: can we ever understand it? To me, that's one of

871
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:12,960
Speaker 1: the deepest questions of science. And this goes right to

872
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Speaker 1: the heart of it.

873
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 3: So if you're a butterfly out there, keep on flam exactly.

874
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Speaker 1: If you still have a question after listening to all

875
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Speaker 1: these explanations, please drop us a line. We'd love to

876
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Speaker 1: hear from you. You can find us at Facebook, Twitter,

877
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Speaker 1: and Instagram at Daniel and Jorge that's one word, or

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Speaker 1: email us at Feedback at Danielandhorge dot com. When you

879
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Speaker 1: pop a piece of cheese into your mouth, you're probably

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Speaker 1: not thinking about the environmental impact, but the people in

881
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Speaker 1: the dairy industry are. That's why they're working hard. Every day.

882
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Speaker 1: greenhouse gases. Many farms use anaerobic digestors to turn the

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886
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Speaker 1: and electric cars. Visit you as dairy dot COM's Last

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890
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Speaker 2: cyclists and pedestrians because they're people too. Go safely California

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Speaker 2: from the California Office of Traffic Safety in Caltrans.

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