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Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.

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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's me, Joey p

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Speaker 1: Joe Piezapia, that handsome young man of course is the one,

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Speaker 1: the only, Scott Bogman, and it's you. And it's all

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Speaker 1: about college football today. That's right, if you can believe it,

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Speaker 1: we are already in week nine of the college football season.

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Speaker 1: We are rocking and rolling. We're gonna talk about what

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Speaker 1: we learned from Week eight, look ahead to the primetime

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Speaker 1: games this coming weekend. The likes and the leans of

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Speaker 1: Scott Bogman, which you can check out at Bettingpros dot

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Speaker 1: com along with all the consensus lines. And Scott Bogman,

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Speaker 1: I want to talk to you about some history because

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Speaker 1: I got home from flag football, turned on my Telly

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Speaker 1: to see the fourth quarter of the Penn State Illinois

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Speaker 1: game and then the subsequent nine.

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Speaker 2: Nine overtime nine the.

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Speaker 1: Level of ineptitude of the amount of overtimes watching, and

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Speaker 1: people would say nine overtimes, Oh, it must have been

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Speaker 1: like fifty to forty seven. No, no, no, that was

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Speaker 1: not no, it still didn't hit the over even with

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Speaker 1: all those that was the one of the craziest things

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Speaker 1: I've ever seen in football period, college, professional, pee wee,

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Speaker 1: all of the above, Scott Ogmen, Penn State just maybe

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Speaker 1: not as good as everybody thought.

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Speaker 2: They were over rated, over rated.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they definitely overrated, but I think we could

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Speaker 3: tell that before, and I had mentioned the problems that

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Speaker 3: they had running the ball, and they had two hundred

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Speaker 3: I think it was two hundred and twenty seven total

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Speaker 3: yards of offense in that game, which for nine overtimes

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Speaker 3: and you know, a full four quarters playing against Illinois

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Speaker 3: is unbelievably bad. They just they I know they're definitely

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Speaker 3: were looking ahead to Ohio State. But that's how you

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Speaker 3: drop a game like that at home, is you look

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Speaker 3: past who is directly in front of you. You just

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Speaker 3: you really can't afford to do that. I mean, you

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Speaker 3: can never ever do that in the NFL, and you

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Speaker 3: absolutely should not do it in college football. There's only

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Speaker 3: a few handful teams that can do that, and they

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Speaker 3: usually don't end up winning against the spread. So I'm

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Speaker 3: really surprised that that happened. But it was like for me,

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Speaker 3: it started because I'm central time, it started at eleven,

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Speaker 3: and then it didn't end until like mid some of

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Speaker 3: those second games were over right, Oh yeah.

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Speaker 1: Oh, I stayed late. My daughter's game was over. I

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Speaker 1: stayed to watch some of the third and fourth grade

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Speaker 1: games their first game. Then I went home and the

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Speaker 1: Penn State game was still on, and then watching Arthur Sakowski,

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Speaker 1: who happened to also go to my high school in

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Speaker 1: New Jersey. And my friend who I went to high

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Speaker 1: school with is our high school football coach now, and

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Speaker 1: I've been hearing about him for years. And I remember

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Speaker 1: when he, you know, played at Rutgers and threw a

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Speaker 1: million interceptions and I didn't even realize that he wristed.

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Speaker 1: I know he had, well, you knew he broke his wrist,

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Speaker 1: but I realized that he had gone through the transfer

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Speaker 1: portal and all this stuff. And what a terrible way

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Speaker 1: I would imagine for his college football career to end

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Speaker 1: that way too. But that's the other thing to compound

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Speaker 1: it all. The point I'm making is to a backup quarterback.

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Speaker 1: They lost in overtime to Illinois's backup quarterback Bogman.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, because Brandon Peters got hurt that week one, and

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Speaker 3: because he's pretty good. Specifically, I play a lot of

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Speaker 3: college fantasy and he's a good runner, Brandon Peters is,

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Speaker 3: but had just not been healthy enough. And even when

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Speaker 3: he was healthy enough, I think they're like, ask to

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Speaker 3: cows Kip playing Okay, let's just keep him in there.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, they came in.

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Speaker 3: Brandon Peters comes in late, and you know, all you

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Speaker 3: gotta do is convert it to two point conversion, that's it.

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Speaker 3: And he got the one in the ninth overtime after

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Speaker 3: Penn State had missed theirs for the million time and

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Speaker 3: ended up winning it. And it was crazy. And you know,

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Speaker 3: they weren't the only ones to not show up. Oklahoma

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Speaker 3: did not show up to Kansas until halftime, which was

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Speaker 3: just very very surprising to me because Caleb Williams looked

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Speaker 3: like they had just clicked onto a second gear, right,

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Speaker 3: and then they come out completely flat. The defense was

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Speaker 3: terrible against Kansas too. I mean, Kansas looked like, you know,

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Speaker 3: a regular like a Baylor or Iowa State or somebody

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Speaker 3: like that playing against Oklahoma. And you can't make Kansas

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Speaker 3: look good. Obviously, everybody gets up to play Oklahoma, and

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Speaker 3: Oklahoma was looking way past this game, but they played

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Speaker 3: a little close in that one too. Ohio State I

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Speaker 3: think we have to say is the most most dominant

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Speaker 3: non Georgia team since that loss to Oregon. Their closest

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Speaker 3: game was the twenty one point win the week after

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Speaker 3: that against Tulsa. Everything else has been blowouts. And they

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Speaker 3: got Penn State this week. So we'll get to that game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we will.

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Speaker 2: Pitt Is for real? Can he pick?

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Speaker 3: Itt is a legit Heisman contender? He went from plus

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Speaker 3: twenty five hundred to plus one thousand after the win

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Speaker 3: over klam As far as Heisman ods go. And Okay

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Speaker 3: State got exposed by Iowa State. Man, it was and

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Speaker 3: there's way more, but we don't have time to go

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Speaker 3: over the entire Week eight. But it was a really

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Speaker 3: fun week in college football, specifically for me because my

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Speaker 3: Longhorns could not lose.

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Speaker 1: All right, well, let's look ahead and turn the page.

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Speaker 1: We'll start with South Florida at ECUCU nine a half

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Speaker 1: void favorites in this contest, and fifty six and a

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Speaker 1: half is the number Bogs take us through.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's an awesome game that nobody wants to

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Speaker 3: play defense in, right, I have the Pirates in this one.

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Speaker 3: ECU is sitting at three and four, but the games

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Speaker 3: they've lost for against teams that with way better rosters

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Speaker 3: in my opinion, of course, but they beat Marshall, who

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Speaker 3: I thought was better than them. They lost by three

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Speaker 3: to South Carolina and SEC team. They held UCF to

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Speaker 3: twenty points and it took Houston to overtime on the

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Speaker 3: road this week, So South Florida has been a little

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Speaker 3: better than expected. But they were expected to be one

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Speaker 3: of the worst teams in the country, so it's not

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Speaker 3: like they're good. The only thing that you does better

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Speaker 3: than average is run the ball, and the only thing

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Speaker 3: ECU is decent on in defense is stopping the run,

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Speaker 3: probably because team they're like one hundred and twenty something

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Speaker 3: against the pass, so most teams can pass on them.

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Speaker 3: But I think this is an easy you beat down.

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Speaker 3: This is the only nationally televised game on on Thursday,

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Speaker 3: so I think the Pirates win that one.

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Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to number one ranked Georgia.

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Speaker 1: Their fourteen point favorites versus Florida. The numbers fifty one.

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Speaker 1: This game is in Jacksonville. Here's a question for you.

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Speaker 1: Are you a little surprised with the numbers only fourteen?

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Speaker 1: I understand Florida's had some good moments in this season.

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Speaker 1: But this is number one ranked Georgia right now. Should

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Speaker 1: this be a little bit bigger of a number?

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Speaker 2: I think.

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Speaker 3: I think it could be a bigger number, and I

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Speaker 3: think people would bet it.

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Speaker 1: But well, yeah, maybe it's just the time to get

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Speaker 1: in on it before it's bigger. I guess that's it.

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Speaker 2: It could definitely get bigger.

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Speaker 3: But remember Florida played Bamahart and Florida has one of

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Speaker 3: those rosters where they can up with these best teams

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Speaker 3: in the country, like Alabama, like Georgia at any given moment,

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Speaker 3: right they can also lose to LSU, which they did

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Speaker 3: so like it's Florida is a jeckal and High team,

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Speaker 3: which is why you've got to take Georgia in this game.

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Speaker 3: Both these teams have had quarterback issues, but the only

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Speaker 3: one that matters right now is Florida. It really doesn't

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Speaker 3: matter who's at the helm for Georgia. They keep winning games.

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Speaker 3: Georgia is gonna win this game with defense. Show they're

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Speaker 3: number one in scoring. They've given up it just take

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Speaker 3: a crack. Seven games, how many touchdowns have they given up?

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Speaker 1: Four?

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Speaker 3: Five, five, They've given up five touchdowns this season no

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Speaker 3: team has scored more than thirteen against them. Still, Florida

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Speaker 3: is the first team that can probably score more than

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Speaker 3: one touchdown against them. But the check on high dance

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Speaker 3: they've done on offense. They're averaging thirty four point four

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Speaker 3: points per game, but Auburn is averaging more and Georgia

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Speaker 3: held them to ten points. Florida is gonna go between

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Speaker 3: They just announced right before we start, according to this

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Speaker 3: that Emery Jones is going to start this game, but

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Speaker 3: Anthony Richardson has been playing better. But I don't think

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Speaker 3: it matters. Florida would have to win this game on defense,

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Speaker 3: and they're pretty good at defense, but no one can

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Speaker 3: handle Georgia. This is going to be another win. George's

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Speaker 3: five and two against the spread this season. I think

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Speaker 3: they're going to beat down Florida. I think they're almost

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Speaker 3: They're almost unstoppable, and it's so weird to see because

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Speaker 3: they're completely one dimensional. They are a one defensive team.

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Speaker 3: Most of their points, you know, have come off of

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Speaker 3: just short fields and punts and turnovers and that kind

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Speaker 3: of stuff. So I think playing Bama is going to

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Speaker 3: be huge for Georgia. But I don't think anyone else

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Speaker 3: can stand a chance against them. I think they're just

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Speaker 3: beating people into the ground. I think it's gonna happen

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Speaker 3: with Florida this week too.

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech is going to take on fourth ranked Oklahoma.

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma is nineteen and a half point favorites. The over

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Speaker 1: under this one is sixty six and a half. Is

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Speaker 1: there any way that Texas Tech can possibly hang here

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Speaker 1: with Oklahoma?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I think there is. And look, there's so much going

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Speaker 3: on here. Texas Texas fired their head coach Matt Wells.

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Speaker 3: Oklahoma didn't show up for that half against Kansas and

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Speaker 3: didn't beat the spread and could have lost that game outright.

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Speaker 3: I mean they ended up winning by more than a touchdown,

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Speaker 3: but they could have definitely lost that game.

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Speaker 2: Texas is allowed.

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Speaker 3: You know, Texas Tech has allowed three touchdowns in the

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Speaker 3: fourth quarter to lose by one point to KSE State

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Speaker 3: at home, and then that's what caused Matt Wells to

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Speaker 3: get fired. Actually that was in the second half, not

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Speaker 3: in the fourth quarter, but Texas Tech did not score

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Speaker 3: in the second half. I do think Oklahoma is completely overrated,

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Speaker 3: and I think that's not a secret.

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Speaker 2: I think everyone has seen that. This year.

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Speaker 3: They've come close to losing a bunch of games. They

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Speaker 3: keep that zero in the lost column, though, and they

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Speaker 3: keep being ranked very, very high. I just the problem

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Speaker 3: is that I can definitely see Tech scoring enough to

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Speaker 3: keep this game close. This nineteen and a half number,

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Speaker 3: so I'm gonna take the Red Raiders against the spread.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna run away from this over under sixty six

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Speaker 3: and a half looks good. But if this is a

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Speaker 3: low scoring game, this trends to Oklahoma not covering this number.

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Speaker 3: But if it goes high as well, that means Texas

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Speaker 3: Tech is probably scoring. So I think either way, I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna take Texas Tech in this game.

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Speaker 2: But I think when you get a new coach.

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Speaker 3: Or you fire your coach and have an interim head coach,

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Speaker 3: what they do is they say, I have to get

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Speaker 3: the ball to my best player. And Eric Azukama is

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Speaker 3: He's an NFL level wide receiver for Texas Tech. He's enormous.

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Speaker 3: He scored a touchdown on a reverse in the first

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Speaker 3: quarter and then got four targets for the rest of

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Speaker 3: the game.

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Speaker 2: How do you do that? Like you're losing this game.

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Speaker 1: That stuff will get your fired, Bogs.

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Speaker 2: It'll get you fired.

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Speaker 3: And they're on their backup quarterback Henry Columby, because they

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Speaker 3: had the transfer Tyler Schuck from Oregon in there playing

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Speaker 3: well the first couple of weeks, but come on, man,

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Speaker 3: you got to put up some points, and I think

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Speaker 3: they can do it. Oklahoma's defense not playing up to

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Speaker 3: snuff right now. It took two and a half quarters

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Speaker 3: for them to get going on offense. And if they

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Speaker 3: get that late start against Texas Tech, Texas Tech gonna

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Speaker 3: put up more points than Kansas.

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Speaker 2: Did I guarantee you.

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Speaker 1: That Colorado at seventh ranked Oregon Oregon twenty four point

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Speaker 1: favorites in this contest, forty nine is the over under.

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Speaker 1: I know Oregon is frustrating and trusting them is always tough,

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Speaker 1: but I mean, Colorado's offense is not good here Boston,

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Speaker 1: So can we trust Oregon?

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Speaker 3: I mean, how can we trust the Ducks? They're two

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Speaker 3: and five against the spread this year.

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Speaker 1: It's Colorado.

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Speaker 3: They've played in five one score games this season. The

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Speaker 3: answer is, though, Joe, what you just said. They're playing

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Speaker 3: Colorado who's also two and five against the spread and

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Speaker 3: have only played in one to one score game. In

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Speaker 3: that ten to seven loss in Texas A and M

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Speaker 3: in which the Aggies quarterback starting quarterback Haines King broke

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Speaker 3: his ankle in the second quarter and they had to

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Speaker 3: go to the freshman or the sophomore Calzada.

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Speaker 2: The Buffalo's offense is pathetic.

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Speaker 3: It's so bad Joe one hundred and twenty fifth in

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Speaker 3: scoring fifteen point one points per game, so just over

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Speaker 3: two touchdowns a game, ninety ninth in rushing at one

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Speaker 3: hundred and twenty one yards per game. And the real

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Speaker 3: sadness and patheticness is the passing offense, which is one

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Speaker 3: hundred and twenty seventh in the nation Joe one hundred

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Speaker 3: and twenty seven. The three teams that are worse than

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Speaker 3: Colorado are the three Military Academy teams that all run

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Speaker 3: the triple option. Those are the only teams that are

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Speaker 3: worse passing the ball on a week to week basis

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Speaker 3: than Colorado. Throw away every other number. It doesn't matter,

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Speaker 3: They don't matter. If you can't pass and get first downs,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna have You have nothing to do against Oregon.

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Speaker 3: They are gonna beat down Colorado. Orgon has been screwing

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Speaker 3: us all year long. But this is the game that

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Speaker 3: it's gonna pay off for us. So I am taking

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Speaker 3: Oregon and laying those points.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go to another one that could be frustrating.

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Speaker 1: Florida State at clem Clemson ten point favorites. They are

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Speaker 1: oh and seven on the year against the spread, the

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Speaker 1: numbers forty seven and a half. Can we trust Clemson

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Speaker 1: to cover this day?

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Speaker 3: The quarterback situation is up in the air for Clemson,

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Speaker 3: and I still trust them more than I do Florida State,

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Speaker 3: Who's you know?

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Speaker 2: Clemson?

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Speaker 3: Like you said, Owen seven against the spread, it's pathetic.

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Speaker 3: Florida State is decent on our offense, but are all

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Speaker 3: stems from their running game, which features one of the

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Speaker 3: best running backs in the country and Deshaun Corbin and

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Speaker 3: the second year running back Trishawn Ward has been pretty

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Speaker 3: good and they get some running from Jordan Travis to

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Speaker 3: quarterback too. So they're sitting at thirteenth rushing the ball.

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Speaker 3: But the strength of Clemson's defense is stopping the run.

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Speaker 3: They ran thirtieth against the run, third in scoring defense

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Speaker 3: only behind Michigan and Georgia. So FSU, it's just middle

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Speaker 3: of the pack on defense, but Clemson two teams Joe,

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Speaker 3: I think I might have said this last week too,

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Speaker 3: but two teams have scored twenty points or less against

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Speaker 3: every FBS opponent they've played, the University of Arizona and Clemson.

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Speaker 3: Those are the two teams that cannot score. So forty

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Speaker 3: seven and a half, what are we talking about? How

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Speaker 3: are we getting to this total at all? I'm taking

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Speaker 3: the under. I'm not messing with the spread. I'm not

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Speaker 3: gonna lay points for Clemson take points for FSU. They

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Speaker 3: both suck. But I will take the under because these

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Speaker 3: these defenses are both decent and these offenses are both very,

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Speaker 3: very bad. So I'm gonna take the under in this one.

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Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to the next of the likes here,

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Speaker 1: twentieth ranked Penn State now and rightfully so, after last

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Speaker 1: week at fifth rank Ohio State. Ohio State probably playing

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Speaker 1: their best football right now. Eighteen and a half point

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Speaker 1: favorites in this game fifty nine and a half. But

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Speaker 1: this is a rivalry game, So I'm gonna ask you,

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Speaker 1: is this a trap?

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Speaker 3: Nope, it's not trap. The closest game. Like I said before,

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Speaker 3: Ohio State has played well then.

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Speaker 1: State offense is just it's just it's the quarterback play.

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Speaker 2: It's bat Ohio State.

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Speaker 3: It has the number one scoring offense this season forty

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Speaker 3: nine point three points per game. Penn State is an

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Speaker 3: impressive six and scoring defense only fourteen points seven points

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Speaker 3: per game. But they've played nobody in Ohio State's neighborhood

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Speaker 3: as far as offense goes. This year, they played like

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Speaker 3: Wisconsin and Iowa. You know, they played some hard teams,

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Speaker 3: but they're team good teams because they're good on defense,

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Speaker 3: not because they're good on offense. I have no trust

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Speaker 3: at all in this point in Penn State's offense. Penn

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Speaker 3: State at two hundred and twenty seven yards and nine

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Speaker 3: over times against Illinois, and they've had quarterback issues. I

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Speaker 3: mentioned it last week. Sean Clifford is hurt. They just

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Speaker 3: don't trust. They would rather play Shan Clifford at sixty

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Speaker 3: five percent than go to Roberson, which tells you everything

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Speaker 3: you need to know about Roberson.

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Speaker 2: I think so.

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Speaker 3: I just don't see how they stay in this game

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Speaker 3: with the Buckeyes. And I got the buck guys by

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Speaker 3: more than eighteen and a half in this one, by

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Speaker 3: a pretty decent margin.

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Speaker 1: It should be theoretically with you, but it's always a

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Speaker 1: little bit of me that's slightly nervous.

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Speaker 2: College football man right.

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Speaker 1: Because one team could look so bad one week and

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Speaker 1: you go, how can you lose in nine overtimes to

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Speaker 1: Illinois and then stay close to Ohio State And it's

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Speaker 1: just it's one of those weird things. But the fact

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Speaker 1: that it's again on the road it makes me also,

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Speaker 1: you know, lean Towards certainly went state in this one.

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Speaker 3: I went five and five last week Joe on my picks,

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Speaker 3: and I was mad. And I was particularly mad at

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Speaker 3: Houston because they, you know, they couldn't beat ECU by

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Speaker 3: enough points to cover, and they didn't hit the over

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Speaker 3: in overtime. All I needed was one overtime where they

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Speaker 3: both scored touchdowns and I hit that over and they

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Speaker 3: couldn't get it. They scored an overtime and stupid Ecy

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Speaker 3: you didn't, of course, so I missed it on both ends.

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Speaker 3: Then I look to see how a lot of algorithms

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Speaker 3: and sites did and I.

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Speaker 2: Was like, five five's all right this week, I guess, yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, last week five and five is you'll you'll take

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Speaker 1: that and run. Yeah. Now, this last one on the likes,

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Speaker 1: I can't believe is here because it's notre dating. I

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Speaker 1: don't know how this happened. This has got to be

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Speaker 1: an air somewhere North Carolina at eleventh ranc Notre Dame.

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame three and a half point favorites at home.

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Speaker 1: Sixty two and a half is the number here, So Boggs,

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Speaker 1: how in the world did Notre Dame get into the likes?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look, don't make me regret this show. I have

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Speaker 2: no idea.

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Speaker 1: We immediately all both regret this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm Ron Bergundy dropped jumping into the bear pit.

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Speaker 2: I immediately regret this decision. UNC is four and three with

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Speaker 2: some weird losses.

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Speaker 3: Georgia Tech as a fourteen and a half point favorite,

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Speaker 3: they lost to Florida State as a seventeen and a

359
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Speaker 3: half point favorite. They're sitting at three and four against

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Speaker 3: the spread this year. Notre Dame is four and three

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Speaker 3: against the spread. However, they had the three against the

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Speaker 3: spread losses they have in the first two weeks of

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Speaker 3: the season FSU and Toledo and then the game they

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Speaker 3: lost to Cincinnati. So they have gotten better as the

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Speaker 3: season goes on. They've adjusted this offense more towards Jack

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Speaker 3: Cone as the season has gone on, and my gut

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00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,359
Speaker 3: is telling me to go to Notre Dame. Here. Jack

368
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Speaker 3: Cone seems to have worked through his issue and has

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Speaker 3: had his best game of the season since his big

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Speaker 3: Week one against Florida State. But really the defense was

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Speaker 3: bad in that game. He went twenty of twenty eight

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Speaker 3: In the last game the one hundred and eighty nine

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Speaker 3: yards he threw. Four aren't going to beat North Carolina,

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Speaker 3: but I think they should be able to prove upon that.

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Speaker 3: You know, the big win against USC kind of has

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Speaker 3: me a little bit confident in Notre Dame. Don't make

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Speaker 3: me regret it. Notre Dame, don't make me do it.

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Speaker 3: So UNC has a you know, NFL level caliber quarterback

379
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Speaker 3: in Sam Howe, but outside of that, it's been ugly

380
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Speaker 3: for them. So both these teams are jack going high.

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Speaker 3: But since those early against the spread losses for Notre

382
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Speaker 3: Dame where I was relying on them, they've been pretty good.

383
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Speaker 3: Maybe they go back to sucking since I'm picking them right,

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Speaker 3: I wouldn't be shocked, but I will pick them.

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Speaker 2: Come on, do something for me.

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Speaker 1: Come on Notre Dame. All right. Rudy was on at

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Speaker 1: the gym today, by the way, so maybe that's a

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Speaker 1: good omen.

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Speaker 2: I don't know that so did that like they on Rudy.

390
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:01,920
Speaker 2: So you get pumped up while.

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Speaker 1: You're Yeah, I oh, there's the short guy.

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Speaker 2: You anybody, No, that's what they do, they.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, go now, go lift some weights there, shorty. That's

394
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Speaker 1: what they tell me. Go run. Let's go to the

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Speaker 1: leans here. Let's start with ninth ranked Iowa at Wisconsin.

396
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Speaker 1: Wisconsin is three and a half point favorites here in

397
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Speaker 1: this contest. Thirty six and a half is the number. Baka,

398
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Speaker 1: I gotta imagine a lien here is the under in this.

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Speaker 2: Game, right, I mean, but the numbers thirty six, I.

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Speaker 1: Know, but I mean I know it's so low, but

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Speaker 1: still it's not exactly you know, this isn't Aaron Coriel

402
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Speaker 1: here in terms offense we're talking about, I.

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Speaker 3: Mean, thirty six and a half. You know, twenty one

404
00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:46,280
Speaker 3: to seventeen gets you over. So this, dude, I hate

405
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:49,040
Speaker 3: this game. Who's ready for a low scoring defensive game.

406
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 3: This one is going to be in the leens obviously,

407
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,520
Speaker 3: but just the entire complexion of this game can change

408
00:19:55,600 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 3: on a turnover or something. In h My buddy Nick

409
00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 3: Allen told me the stat today is that fifty three

410
00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:09,080
Speaker 3: percent of Wisconsin's points have come off turnovers. So are

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Speaker 3: they going to be able to turn over Iowa is

412
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Speaker 3: the big question these teams who their best work on defense.

413
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Speaker 3: Iowa's in the top ten in scoring, passing, and rushing defense.

414
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Speaker 3: Wisconsin is better statistically it's stopping the run than Georgia

415
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Speaker 3: because they're number one in that and their top twenty

416
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Speaker 3: in scoring and passing. Iowa's seventy fifth or worse in

417
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Speaker 3: all three offensive categories. But the weakest to me is

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Speaker 3: in the Wisconsin passing game. Mertz is only averaging twenty

419
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:38,199
Speaker 3: one pass attempts and the Badger's passing offense is one

420
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Speaker 3: hundred and twenty third in the nation, averaging one hundred

421
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Speaker 3: and forty six yards per game, and in their wins,

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Speaker 3: he's only averaging fifteen attempts per game. I think the

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Speaker 3: absolute lopsidedness of the Badger's offense gives Iowa the edge

424
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Speaker 3: here and Xavier in that same show said that it's

425
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Speaker 3: Mertz has two passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. I didn't

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Speaker 3: even look at that stat but that is this guy

427
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Speaker 3: is a starting quarterback for a good Wisconsin team. He

428
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Speaker 3: has two touchdowns and seven picks. So that is the

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Speaker 3: big difference for me. So I'll take Iowa, but Wisconsin's

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Speaker 3: at home, They're favored.

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Speaker 2: There's gonna be a very low scoring game. So you know,

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Speaker 2: Iowa turns over the.

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Speaker 3: Ball and you can easily see Wisconsin running away with

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Speaker 3: this one.

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Speaker 2: I just I hate it. I can't stand that game.

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Speaker 1: Sixth rank Michigan taking on Michigan State, who's ranked ninth

437
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:32,200
Speaker 1: in the nation. Michigan's four and a half point favorites

438
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:37,400
Speaker 1: the numbers fifty one. Another historical match up here, one

439
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 1: that everybody waits for. The question is how good is

440
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 1: Michigan State really?

441
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 2: Right?

442
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,639
Speaker 3: And that's kind of why, you know, I look at

443
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,200
Speaker 3: this game and I go, well, come on, like, this

444
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 3: is the game that Michigan is definitely going to lose.

445
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:52,920
Speaker 2: They've looked way too good this year.

446
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,919
Speaker 3: Jim Harball always drops some crappy one, right, so this

447
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,119
Speaker 3: is definitely gonna be it. But I started looking. I

448
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 3: love MSU MSU, but they haven't beaten the best competition, right,

449
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 3: I mean, the Spartan's best win is probably a dominant

450
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:07,640
Speaker 3: beat down on the road against Miami in Week three,

451
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,400
Speaker 3: or the Indiana win maybe without their quarterback.

452
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:11,919
Speaker 2: I don't know.

453
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,920
Speaker 3: Michigan hasn't really been challenged that much either. They do

454
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 3: have a signature win against Wisconsin, which they showed the

455
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 3: ability to switch up and pass the ball. So Michigan

456
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:23,480
Speaker 3: State is one hundred and twenty first in passing defense

457
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:27,880
Speaker 3: so far, mainly because teams have to pass against them

458
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 3: to play catch up. But I think that this is

459
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:34,640
Speaker 3: a Michigan win. But Michigan State is dangerous, so this

460
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:39,879
Speaker 3: one's a lean for me. I do think Michigan should

461
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 3: win this game, but that four and a half, that

462
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:45,439
Speaker 3: point and the hook really get me. I think if

463
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,880
Speaker 3: they were three point road favorites, I would like them

464
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,159
Speaker 3: more and I put this in the likes. But that

465
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 3: point in the hook on the road against the rival

466
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,720
Speaker 3: without a really good offense, and they've been switching back

467
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 3: and forth between quarterback to Michigan has in Michigan State.

468
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 3: It's just I think Michigan stops Kenneth Walker, the Heisman

469
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 3: candidate for Michigan State. I think this is one of

470
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 3: his worst games of the season here. What else can

471
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 3: they do? Can they pass on Michigan to beat them?

472
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 3: I would probably say no. So if you're stopping both

473
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:23,439
Speaker 3: sides of this Michigan offense, then they're just gonna have nothing,

474
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 3: so I think this is going to be another low

475
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,680
Speaker 3: scoring game. I tell you what, I'll take the under

476
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 3: fifty one.

477
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:30,639
Speaker 1: Fair under might be the best one there too. What

478
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:34,159
Speaker 1: about Texas at sixteenth rngth Baylor Baylor two and a

479
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,680
Speaker 1: half point favorites. The number on this one is sixty one.

480
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 1: Texas is good at getting leads, not so much keeping

481
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 1: them Boks.

482
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 2: I mean, so we know how this one's going to end.

483
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 3: Right, Texas gets the lead and then pisces it away

484
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 3: in the second half. But this game, I mean two

485
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:50,399
Speaker 3: and a half points is too close to call for

486
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 3: the odds makers. The spread is low, these teams are

487
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:57,479
Speaker 3: close statistically. The big difference, specifically recently is that Baylor

488
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 3: is stopping teams from scoring in Texas. I think that's

489
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,119
Speaker 3: the difference to me. Long Horns are probably the better roster,

490
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 3: but the Bears are playing better. They both had a

491
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 3: bye week, so there's no advantage there either.

492
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 2: I'll go with Baylor.

493
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 3: I've seen enough Texas tackling to know that it isn't

494
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 3: going to get fixed with one bye week, so I'll

495
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 3: take the Bears at home. It kills me to do that.

496
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 3: I do think the Longhorns have the best player in

497
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,719
Speaker 3: the country and Jon Robinson, they're not utilizing him correctly

498
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:27,679
Speaker 3: in the second half. Dude, get twenty carries in the

499
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 3: second half. He's just not getting them. So I gotta

500
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 3: take Baylor for the way they're playing now and the

501
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 3: way that Texas has played the last two weeks.

502
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:38,360
Speaker 1: All right, last one here tenth rank Ole Miss at

503
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 1: eighteenth ranked Auburn. Auburn's actually favorites in this one two

504
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 1: and a half and the number sixty six bugs. I

505
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 1: feel like the wrong team is favored in this game.

506
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:48,640
Speaker 3: I do too, But you know the Vegas is raking

507
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 3: in money for a reason, right, Joe, So true. I

508
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 3: just this is the hardest game of the week to

509
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:54,719
Speaker 3: pick for me. I think it's going to boil down

510
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 3: to a few things here. Number one is which Bonnick

511
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 3: shows up. The last few weeks, Bonnick Knicks has come

512
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,639
Speaker 3: back in against LSU after being benched and led Auburn

513
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 3: to a win there and help beat Arkansas with a

514
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 3: twenty one for twenty six, two touchdown performance. The defense

515
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 3: has been strong for Auburn two, holding Arkansas to twenty

516
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 3: three points when they average thirty.

517
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 2: Two point eight.

518
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 3: We know Mississippi is going to score as the seventh

519
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 3: ranked team in scoring forty one point nine points per game,

520
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 3: and they're led by Matt Crow who's a Heisman, He's

521
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:25,919
Speaker 3: a higsmand front runner right now, and they only have

522
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 3: that one loss against Bama. There's a great article on

523
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 3: Nick Sus of the Mississippi Clarion Ledger that showed that

524
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 3: the pace is important against the ole Miss defense when

525
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:37,160
Speaker 3: playing with urgency.

526
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 2: The ReBs get smoked.

527
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 3: Arkansas did it, Alabama did it. Yeah, it both scored

528
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 3: over forty points, right, So LSU and Tennessee ran the

529
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 3: ball more and got beat by by Auburn. So I

530
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 3: think ole Miss is a better squad here and I'm

531
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 3: gonna pick them. But I can honestly see this one

532
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,640
Speaker 3: playing a few different ways, so I'm gonna avoid it.

533
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,639
Speaker 3: I think the safest play is the under sixty six.

534
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:05,919
Speaker 1: All Right, there you have it. Make sure you head

535
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,720
Speaker 1: over to Betting Pros again, check out all Bogmin's work

536
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 1: and check out all these consensus lines, and of course

537
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 1: you can subscribe to the podcast for Betting Pros wherever

538
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 1: you get your pods, and follow this guy over on

539
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 1: Twitter at bogbin Sports, give him a follow. Come on,

540
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 1: let's go. Hopefully you'll get a Notre dame this week,

541
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:22,879
Speaker 1: and if he doesn't, then you can unflow.

542
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 2: Let's go fight and Irish I've always loved you.

543
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 1: That's right, yeah, yeah, On that note, that'll do it

544
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 1: for us, But the story of the game goes on

545
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 1: for Scott Bogman. I'm Joey P. We will see you

546
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 1: next time. Kids,