1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,840 Speaker 1: Let's get to our guest. Nancy Dooud is with US 2 00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:07,120 Speaker 1: private wealth advisor at amer Prize Financial. She joins us 3 00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:11,399 Speaker 1: from Connecticut, Oxford. I believe Nancy, thanks for being with us. 4 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:14,640 Speaker 1: We were speaking and when I say we, I'm I'm 5 00:00:14,680 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: speaking about the news organization with Mike Wilson over at 6 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley this morning. He was talking about the fact 7 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: that the equity market has like to rally in the 8 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 1: early part of next year. Maybe we're nearing a bottom 9 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: in this bear market. Would you go so far as 10 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:32,879 Speaker 1: to make that call, Well, nobody could really predict that 11 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:37,240 Speaker 1: with great certainty, but it certainly does appear that much 12 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:40,919 Speaker 1: of the downside is behind us. UM. It was a 13 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:44,519 Speaker 1: horrible third quarter, especially September, There's no doubt about that, 14 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 1: and it was great to see a bit of a 15 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 1: reprieve here in the past few weeks for a couple 16 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 1: of weeks UM, but inflation is unfortunately the major factor here, 17 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: and the Fed will need to see several months of 18 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 1: data to indicate that inflation is either easing or moderating 19 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:06,679 Speaker 1: before they will take that pause that they're talking about, 20 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 1: and perhaps that will not happen until QE and if 21 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 1: that does, then maybe we will see the recovery beginning. 22 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: Nan See. The thing is, you know there's a lag here, 23 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: isn't it That makes it very difficult to actually get 24 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:25,319 Speaker 1: the timing right and make it even more possible that 25 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:30,319 Speaker 1: there's a huge policy era. Well, of course, there's always 26 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 1: a chance of a huge policy. That's why investors really 27 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 1: should not be uh waiting for this kind of timing 28 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:41,760 Speaker 1: is just never a good idea. Trying to time market 29 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: is not going to be a very good or a 30 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:48,200 Speaker 1: very good outcome for any investor. What you want to 31 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 1: do is think about how long am I in this for? 32 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: And what's my appetite for risk? And if if you 33 00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 1: have in it for at least four to five years 34 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: or longer, what grand opportunity I mean, the market had 35 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 1: taken such a beating across the board we're looking at 36 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 1: roughly down check here. So any entry point today literally 37 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:15,919 Speaker 1: would be just fine if you're in it four or 38 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:20,840 Speaker 1: five years from now looking ahead. But to try the time, well, 39 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:24,360 Speaker 1: when is the absolute bottom or when what will the 40 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:27,959 Speaker 1: Fed do? That's just that's just noise. It's been a 41 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 1: big week for megacap Tech. We heard the last night 42 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: from Alphabet and Microsoft. Those shares were punished in the 43 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 1: regular session. And look at Meta today after the bell, 44 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:40,360 Speaker 1: stocks down with some disappointing revenue and a warning that 45 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,079 Speaker 1: this metaverse division is going to post a deeper net 46 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 1: loss over the coming year on a pullback that you've 47 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:50,360 Speaker 1: seen in these mega cap names. Nancy, very quickly thirty seconds. 48 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 1: Would you be a buyer? Um? Well, I can't comment 49 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 1: on the particular stocks, but the whole UH tech market 50 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:01,959 Speaker 1: as a whole has taken a huge beating in this 51 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 1: in the in the nast nine to ten months, which 52 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 1: in my opinion makes it a grand opportunity. But I 53 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,240 Speaker 1: would look for specific names and and look at the 54 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:14,799 Speaker 1: corporate balance sheets of course, But like I said before, 55 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: if you're in it for the longer term, what a 56 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 1: grand opportunity because they're all at rock bottom prices and 57 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: they are highly affected. Growth stocks are always highly affected. 58 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:28,520 Speaker 1: Where do we go next? Overall? I mean our markets 59 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: pricing in a recession any longer? Well, I think that 60 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 1: most of that has already been priced in, but that 61 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 1: doesn't mean we can't go a little bit further before 62 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 1: we start to recover UH And I think, as I 63 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, that what will begin. The recovery. Really is 64 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 1: science that inflation is subsiding and moderating. That's really the 65 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 1: most important part. So I'm curious as to whether or 66 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: not you think that there are opportunities offshore. We noted 67 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 1: earlier in the day that the NASTAC Golden Wagon Index 68 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: that is really a an amalgamation of a lot of 69 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 1: the A d R s that trade here in the States. 70 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 1: I think around sixty five of them. The index overall 71 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: was up more than seven percent today because of a 72 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 1: market reaction to Beijing pledging more support for financial markets. 73 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:21,119 Speaker 1: Are you confident to put money to work in China? 74 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 1: I know we're just wrapping the Party Congress, and there 75 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:26,839 Speaker 1: seems to be an over all sentiment that that's negative 76 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 1: when it comes to China. But I'm wondering what your 77 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 1: take may happen to be. Um. Well, the answer to 78 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:35,840 Speaker 1: your question is no, I'm not confident in putting money 79 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 1: in China, but I'm in the business of meeting clients 80 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: long term goals and objectives. And um you know, the 81 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:46,839 Speaker 1: international market as a whole is very tricky at this time. 82 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: The dollar is very strong, uh, Europe is in Greek 83 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:55,480 Speaker 1: lip turmoil, and uh, perhaps already in a recession, if 84 00:04:55,520 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 1: not coming up soon. The Russian reclaiming more is taking 85 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:03,599 Speaker 1: a big toll on Western Europe. So we pulled back 86 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:09,280 Speaker 1: significantly on outside the US. As my chief economist says, 87 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: that the US is the best house in a very 88 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 1: bad neighborhood at this time, and so we're kind of 89 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 1: sticking with US equity at this point. Well certainly, but 90 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:20,920 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, when you look at em, and 91 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:22,719 Speaker 1: you know where the dollar is, even though we've seen 92 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:24,479 Speaker 1: the fall, and review are of the volition that the 93 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:27,840 Speaker 1: dollar actually weakens from here, perhaps it's a good idea 94 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 1: to get involved with him and actually then perhaps benefit 95 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:34,640 Speaker 1: not just from a good stock or solid valuation, et cetera, 96 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 1: and also get money from the currency play. Well, eventually, 97 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 1: I think that will be eventually, Like I said, it 98 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 1: will be an opportunity. However, um, it's highly speculative at 99 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 1: this time. In my opinion, I think it's taking too 100 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:53,280 Speaker 1: big of a risk when you have other less or 101 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 1: more predictive opportunities here in the US. So, speaking of 102 00:05:56,680 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 1: predictive opportunities, if we can agree that we are closer 103 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:03,839 Speaker 1: to a peak in the Fed funds rate over the 104 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 1: next few months, let's say sometime in the first quarter. Yes, 105 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: and I understand that you need to see uh inflation 106 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:13,480 Speaker 1: data that begins to kind of move down. Would you 107 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 1: begin to look for opportunities in the bond market, whether 108 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 1: it's corporate bonds or maybe even the U. S. Treasuries 109 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 1: at this point, yes, I actually uh, I think it's 110 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 1: we're getting very close to a bowmarket and bonds you know, uh, 111 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 1: we already have actual yield, I mean four and a 112 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 1: half percent yield. That's very attractive. You can direct some 113 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:38,039 Speaker 1: funds there as opposed to the risk premium you tape 114 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: to take in UH in thoms. So I think that 115 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:45,480 Speaker 1: is actually a very possible, good possibility in the next 116 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 1: few weeks, if not in the next few months. Although 117 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:51,799 Speaker 1: the Feds will raise rates again in November and December, 118 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,599 Speaker 1: going from zero to four percent is not the same 119 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 1: as going from four to five percent. I think the 120 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 1: majority of that downside has already been priced in. Yeah. 121 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 1: That's it to a quick word as to where you 122 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:08,280 Speaker 1: see the bond market going for the time being, and 123 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 1: to also give give a sense of you know what 124 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 1: the most I guess, I guess the most important question 125 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 1: that your clients are asking you right now. Well, I 126 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 1: think the most important questions clients want an answer to 127 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 1: is when will this be over? Of course I don't 128 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 1: have the answer to that, and I don't think anybody 129 00:07:28,440 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: has the answer. But I do know for certain in 130 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 1: doing this for a few decades, is that if you're 131 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 1: in it for four prive years or longer, you're going 132 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 1: to be just fine. Just make sure you're allocated for 133 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 1: the correct allocation, for your preferences, for your time frame, 134 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 1: and more most importantly, for your appetite for risk. All right, 135 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 1: Thank you, Nancy. Nancy that would the private wealth advisor 136 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: at Amy Price Financial, getting her take on the markets.