WEBVTT - Q2 Will Be the Comeback Kid, says Frances Donald 0:00:02.600 --> 0:00:13.800 Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jailey. 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:17.560 We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.480 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:33.640 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg Record 0:00:33.680 --> 0:00:39.519 Weakness Dolla, Lira, Wow, that's and that's happening. Can I 0:00:39.560 --> 0:00:44.640 interrupt the very Haley Haley from Beverly Hills emails and 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:47.680 loved what we did in the Celtics. Wonderful, she says. 0:00:47.720 --> 0:00:51.199 More basketballball is what she says. So let's do a 0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:54.240 review of the Los Angeles Lakers thirty five and forty 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:57.320 seven this year. And there is your further basketball What 0:00:57.440 --> 0:01:00.800 is she doing? A I don't know. Hay from Rodeo 0:01:00.920 --> 0:01:03.960 driving Beverly Hills. Thank you, Hay, Well, thank you very much. Hailey. 0:01:04.120 --> 0:01:06.840 I'm told we have to praise Guy Johnson. Now do 0:01:06.880 --> 0:01:08.840 we have to do that on Bloomberg Radio? You know why? 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:11.640 You know why? It was a solid interview. It was 0:01:11.680 --> 0:01:17.840 a solid one question. It was like, have you got anymore? No, 0:01:18.000 --> 0:01:21.680 it's it was okay, it was good. I think let's 0:01:21.680 --> 0:01:24.520 bring in Bloomberg's Guy Johnson Sauby, who we sat down 0:01:25.080 --> 0:01:28.880 with the President of Turkey, Guy Johnson, welcome to the program, 0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:31.520 Good morning for us. Help me out then, what was 0:01:31.560 --> 0:01:34.480 your sense from the Turkish president on the direction of 0:01:34.520 --> 0:01:37.160 monetary policy and what he'd like to see. He came 0:01:37.200 --> 0:01:39.039 here to London, he knew what he was doing. He 0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:42.080 delivered a message. The message is clear. I am in charge. 0:01:42.360 --> 0:01:44.240 I'm not only in charge of the government. I'm in 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:48.880 charge of all aspects of the government. Everybody answers to me. Guy. 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:51.840 I thought it was fabulous how singular the interview was 0:01:51.880 --> 0:01:54.880 in our Benjamin Harvey, with years of experience in instable 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:59.000 felt the same way. We interviewed Mama sam Sek, the 0:01:59.080 --> 0:02:03.160 financial guy for Mr Raawan in I MF meetings. Has 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:05.200 he even been part of the picture or is he 0:02:05.640 --> 0:02:08.520 tangential to what Turkey is going to do with lear 0:02:08.639 --> 0:02:12.519 AD four point four or five. He's currently sitting next 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:14.840 to President Urdawan. He sat next to him at the 0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:17.880 lunch that I hosted with President Urdawan and he was 0:02:18.160 --> 0:02:22.040 president during the interview off camera obviously, but he was there. 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:25.640 So he is currently part of the team. After the elections. 0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:29.320 Who knows? And that's another fact that the financial markets 0:02:29.320 --> 0:02:32.280 are watching. He is one of the few last roop. 0:02:32.320 --> 0:02:34.799 In fact, I think he's the only last remaining part 0:02:34.880 --> 0:02:37.440 of the economic team that the markets have any faith in. 0:02:37.520 --> 0:02:41.040 The guy. For our listeners worldwide have been following this story. 0:02:41.120 --> 0:02:43.520 It's a really odd situation in Turkey where they have 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:46.560 double digit inflation and the traditional response to that is 0:02:46.639 --> 0:02:49.480 higher interest rates. But we have a president in Turkey 0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:52.400 who wants to see lower interest rates. Guy, did you 0:02:52.440 --> 0:02:55.280 get a sense from the president of whether he was 0:02:55.400 --> 0:02:57.880 worried about what was happening in the FX market, worried 0:02:57.880 --> 0:03:00.400 about what was happening in the bond market. He was, 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:03.080 He didn't show it, John, He honestly, he came here. 0:03:03.760 --> 0:03:07.680 This is I He came to Bloomberg, he came to London, 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:10.800 this is like, these are two kind of bastions of 0:03:10.800 --> 0:03:15.000 the financial landscape. And and he walked in and he 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:18.880 delivered a message. He knew what he was doing. This 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:22.919 wasn't something that was delivered by accidents. This was this 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:25.840 was a message that was sent loud and clear to 0:03:25.880 --> 0:03:29.320 the financial community, to investors. I'm in charge. This is 0:03:29.320 --> 0:03:31.840 how we're gonna run monetary policy, and I am going 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:35.040 to be the one that ultimately decides which direction that 0:03:35.160 --> 0:03:37.600 is going in. He's already indicated, he did so last weekend, 0:03:37.760 --> 0:03:40.480 that he thinks Ray should be going down, not up. 0:03:40.720 --> 0:03:42.800 You have to assume that that is now the direction 0:03:42.840 --> 0:03:46.040 of travel. He has a very different view of how 0:03:46.080 --> 0:03:48.640 economics works. So, Guy, aside from the fact that he 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:51.200 has this really different view as to how economics work, 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:54.840 typically markets like independent, credible central banks. And the next 0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:57.760 month there's an important election in Turkey. Talk to us 0:03:57.800 --> 0:04:00.360 about what happens in the next month in terms of 0:04:00.360 --> 0:04:03.680 electoral politics and how it may reshape the central bank. Well, 0:04:03.680 --> 0:04:09.640 he's becoming he is, he is becoming um effectively, he's 0:04:09.640 --> 0:04:10.960 going to be in sole control. At the moment we 0:04:10.960 --> 0:04:13.240 have a parliamentary system, we are going to go to 0:04:13.280 --> 0:04:16.200 an executive presidential system. That is how it's going to work. 0:04:16.440 --> 0:04:18.240 All power will be centered in him. He is going 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:22.680 to change the constitution to allow himself control of almost all, 0:04:22.839 --> 0:04:26.320 in fact, all of the levers of power in Turkey. 0:04:26.360 --> 0:04:29.640 He everything will center on him. And as a result 0:04:29.640 --> 0:04:31.880 of which, why should monetary policy be any different? Guy, 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:35.920 fantastic interview, Just a brilliant interview, and Guy Johnson Tom 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:38.159 Kane even said it was solid, and I think that 0:04:38.240 --> 0:04:40.120 hurt him a little bit. Taking the box that did 0:04:40.120 --> 0:04:42.200 that hurt a little bit to admit that it was solid. No, 0:04:42.279 --> 0:04:45.240 it was great. It was you know. And I will 0:04:45.320 --> 0:04:48.320 say this as well, it's very hard, much harder, I 0:04:48.360 --> 0:04:52.160 should say, to do an interview where they're answering in 0:04:52.240 --> 0:04:56.200 their own language. That really can with a translator, and 0:04:56.240 --> 0:04:59.159 it really changes the dynamic from you know, like a 0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:02.479 craft point, from a method standpoint, and it took the 0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:06.080 story forward. I'll say, yeah, and I don't care. The 0:05:06.320 --> 0:05:08.560 bottom light is the market doesn't give a damn what 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:13.280 Guy Johnson thinks. Is guy going now so shreds? Okay? 0:05:13.600 --> 0:05:17.239 The bottom light is the market john Pharaoh. The market 0:05:17.279 --> 0:05:19.360 is saying to Guy Johnson, you don't know what you're 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:22.680 talking about. I think the market is saying that to 0:05:22.800 --> 0:05:25.120 the President of Turkey, let's bring in Phoenix. Kalin Shaw, 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:29.279 Society General director of Emerging Market Strategy. Phenis great to 0:05:29.279 --> 0:05:31.200 have you with us on the program. Your thoughts on 0:05:31.240 --> 0:05:34.599 that Bloomberg exclusive, the interview with the Turkish president and 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:38.599 how it shapes your views on the Turkish currency. Now, yeah, 0:05:38.640 --> 0:05:41.200 I think it's just shocking the message that he actually 0:05:41.240 --> 0:05:45.400 delivered to an international audience of all people, um, which 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:49.800 really undermined any credibility that investors still had in the 0:05:49.800 --> 0:05:53.000 Central Bank of Turkey and in what actions they're able 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:56.640 to take to to stem the current currency routes. So 0:05:56.880 --> 0:05:59.080 I think you know, there's, um, there's there's a lack 0:05:59.080 --> 0:06:02.640 of credibility on the part of policymakers to to try 0:06:02.680 --> 0:06:05.560 to take the appropriate actions, and so we're likely to 0:06:06.000 --> 0:06:09.400 head towards that currency crisis. Phoenix, if your morass setting 0:06:09.440 --> 0:06:12.800 Ki the governor of the Central Bank of Turkey, what 0:06:12.839 --> 0:06:17.360 on earth do you do now? Well, I guess it's 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:20.039 it's difficult to understand the place that he's in, considering 0:06:20.120 --> 0:06:22.599 the kind of political dress that he's under, and we 0:06:22.680 --> 0:06:25.600 don't have, you know, a clear sense of what that is. 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:29.240 But if he, if he were able to to take 0:06:29.320 --> 0:06:32.599 the full powers of his role, then it would be 0:06:32.800 --> 0:06:37.960 to necessarily calm down the markets via coming out and asserting, um, 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:42.039 the independence of the central bank and try to do 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:44.440 an emergency rate hike, which is what the market is 0:06:44.480 --> 0:06:50.120 demanding in order to address the currency routes. Yeah, I look, 0:06:50.200 --> 0:06:53.240 Phoenix at Turkey, is it discreet to you, I mean 0:06:53.240 --> 0:06:56.000 you follow at full time for Sarjen. Is it a 0:06:56.120 --> 0:06:58.360 screed event or does this have not kind of affects 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:04.720 other countries? Well, I think right now Turkey is kind 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:08.560 of an isolated situation because we do see some stress 0:07:08.560 --> 0:07:11.400 on other emerging markets right now, but nowhere neither the 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:14.640 extent that Turkey is experiencing. And that's coming from the 0:07:14.640 --> 0:07:17.880 combination of vulnerabilities that the Turkey has in terms of 0:07:18.200 --> 0:07:21.840 you know, exposure to UM, high oil imports with rising 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:25.720 oil prices right now, and high external financing needs UM. 0:07:25.760 --> 0:07:28.920 So it's it's a confluence of all of those factories. Okay, 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:32.560 I'm glad you mentioned oil Brent crude seventy nine oh seven. 0:07:32.920 --> 0:07:36.040 Does Brent crude at seventy nine oh seven does that 0:07:36.120 --> 0:07:39.600 fold right in to reduce GDP and Turkey are they 0:07:39.640 --> 0:07:44.440 going into recession as we speak? Well, I think it 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:49.600 functions more into the trade channels of really impacting the 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:52.480 trade balance and then the current account deficits and and 0:07:53.160 --> 0:07:59.320 exacerbating those external vulnerabilities and from there influencing the financing 0:07:59.400 --> 0:08:03.560 channels and then onwards to GDP growth. So it's it's 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:09.280 a few steps, but yes, that does ultimately curb down consumption. Um, 0:08:09.320 --> 0:08:12.000 as we move into this this latter cycle, which I 0:08:12.040 --> 0:08:14.360 suppose is what President Era to want is trying to 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:17.920 prevent by trying to over stimulate growth. Phoenix, Just before 0:08:17.920 --> 0:08:20.000 we lose you, one final question. You did mention in 0:08:20.040 --> 0:08:23.280 this conversation and risk of a currency crisis in Turkey? 0:08:23.440 --> 0:08:25.520 What is the currency crisis in Turkey? And how how 0:08:25.520 --> 0:08:29.400 close are we too? Want? There's no pressure on Phoenix. 0:08:29.440 --> 0:08:31.480 We just want to know where the tipping point is it? 0:08:31.560 --> 0:08:34.480 Is it a five handle? Dora? I don't know, Phoenix, 0:08:34.520 --> 0:08:36.920 what is it? Well? I just hope it's not a 0:08:36.960 --> 0:08:41.000 six handle? Um, Phoenix, there's no pressure. You're the General 0:08:41.040 --> 0:08:44.440 Council of SOEN is not listening. Okay, what's the tip 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:47.200 point here? What's the tip point here in the crisis? 0:08:49.559 --> 0:08:51.439 I think I think this is it. This is you 0:08:51.520 --> 0:08:54.480 know that US witnessing that the central bank has no 0:08:54.559 --> 0:08:58.120 ability to step in and and do UM and take 0:08:58.120 --> 0:09:01.600 the appropriate actions, and with the political authorities coming down 0:09:01.640 --> 0:09:05.559 on them, this is sort of the US sending into 0:09:05.559 --> 0:09:08.040 the crisis. Phois. Thank you so much. Fizz Kalin with 0:09:08.120 --> 0:09:27.800 US General, let's get an economic night to Shally he's 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:32.000 been down. Two dice, hello, Jonathan. Retail sales and Manufacturing, 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:36.360 the Commerce Department reporting retail sales rose point three percent 0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:38.680 in April, less than the prior month, which has actually 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:42.640 revised a bit higher, but inline with forecasts. Excluding autos, 0:09:42.679 --> 0:09:45.720 we see a point three percent increase. The retail sales 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:48.880 control group, which you know, Tom Keen monitors closely up 0:09:48.920 --> 0:09:51.600 point four percent, a bit lower than the prior month. 0:09:51.640 --> 0:09:56.360 Manufacturing Federal Reserve, Bank of New York, Empire Manufacturing Index, 0:09:56.440 --> 0:10:00.079 Regional Index topping forecasts up to twenty point one. In 0:10:00.160 --> 0:10:03.440 the headline, retail sales up point three percent in April. 0:10:03.480 --> 0:10:07.080 I'm let's go back to New York. Little Saggyny, thank 0:10:07.080 --> 0:10:09.679 you so much, greatly appreciate that little saga report. En 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:13.040 moves weaker. Yen off that these are little little tweaks. 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:16.040 I don't want to overplay that dollar stronger, uh En 0:10:16.160 --> 0:10:18.680 moves weaker, but there's a lot of other noise out there. 0:10:19.120 --> 0:10:21.920 Ten yere yield importantly just now goes through three point 0:10:22.000 --> 0:10:25.720 zero three to four digits three point zero three three 0:10:25.840 --> 0:10:28.920 six on the tenure yield equity features to tier A 0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:32.800 negative nine down futures negative one oh two. Um, it 0:10:32.920 --> 0:10:35.800 is good to get an update from Francis Donald. She 0:10:36.000 --> 0:10:39.920 is with Manual Life on the American economy on Canada 0:10:40.640 --> 0:10:42.280 as well. We said good morning to all of you 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:46.760 across Canada. Uh, francis the character of the retail report 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:49.680 Beneath it, there's a lot of data. When you dive 0:10:49.720 --> 0:10:53.280 into the data today to write your manual life. Note, 0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:56.680 what kind of data do you look at? The granular 0:10:57.080 --> 0:11:02.160 UH pages and pages? Well, number one is that control 0:11:02.320 --> 0:11:04.840 group number that comes through, because that's what the Bureau 0:11:04.840 --> 0:11:07.200 of Economic Analysis is going to use to calculate the 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:10.160 GDP number. So we can breathe. A five release that 0:11:10.200 --> 0:11:13.240 came in on expectations today and does suggest that Q 0:11:13.440 --> 0:11:15.800 two is going to be the comeback kid that we 0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:18.760 were hopeful it will be. Under the surface, we're looking 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:22.360 at things like gas sales important because those gas prices 0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:26.199 rising are eating into consumer pocketbooks. We're going to take 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:28.120 a look at autos to make sure we're not seeing 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:31.040 too much of a deceleration there. And then my personal favorite, 0:11:31.080 --> 0:11:34.160 I always have an eye on those non store retailers. 0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:36.120 Not because there's a day to day trade there or 0:11:36.120 --> 0:11:39.319 even quartered a quarter trade, but they've become so significant 0:11:39.360 --> 0:11:41.920 that they are starting to move the economic picture in abroad. 0:11:42.200 --> 0:11:46.200 So let's rephrase that to be clear. Amazon is in 0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:51.000 this data this morning. They are so total retail sales 0:11:51.000 --> 0:11:53.520 have been running about four or five percent year a year. 0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:57.280 Non store retailers overhead or double that, closer to ten 0:11:57.360 --> 0:12:00.400 percent year every year. Online retail sales of grown from 0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:03.600 about three percent of total retail sales in the up 0:12:03.640 --> 0:12:07.360 to eleven percent today, and they've captured about six of 0:12:07.400 --> 0:12:09.920 all retail sales growth that the past two years. And 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:12.520 that's why we have to watch non store retailers because 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:14.920 they become part of the inflation data. That's the link 0:12:15.000 --> 0:12:17.760 between the two. Do you, as a non sell side 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:21.400 retail internet E type as an economist, do you just 0:12:21.559 --> 0:12:28.160 extrapolate Amazon's market share growth? Well, we pay attention to it, 0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:31.240 and the most important extrapolation is really what it means 0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:34.680 for pricing power. What does this mean for companies and 0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:37.720 their ability to lift the price of their goods and 0:12:37.800 --> 0:12:42.600 services over time? And is this part of the disinflationary story. 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:45.040 When I look at retail sales data, and every time 0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:47.440 I see that non store retailers never come through, I 0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:50.360 just think this is disinflation. I just want to get 0:12:50.360 --> 0:12:52.680 to the price section. Francis, what's happening in the market, 0:12:53.040 --> 0:12:55.559 A new year today high, a new one year high, 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:57.840 new multi year high on the US tenure year at 0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:01.400 three point zero four percent. Don't a strength, renewed dollar 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:03.720 strength against everything in G ten and the bulk of 0:13:03.760 --> 0:13:06.360 emerging markets as well. Francis, what do you make of 0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:09.280 what we're seeing in the rates market as rates and 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:13.760 the US dollar seemingly a recaupling over the last month. Yeah, 0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:16.920 this is confirmation that the US just had a soggy 0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:21.240 first quarter, that there's strength behind the US consumer moving forward. 0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:23.680 The US consumer has been the pillar of growth in 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:26.200 the United States, and we're hoping that we can withstand 0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:28.360 that pillar and then add to it with some additional 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:32.000 capex down the road. Now, higher oil prices has been 0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:34.520 a double edged sword here. In one sense, will worry 0:13:34.559 --> 0:13:37.960 that that's going to put some breaks on the U. S. Consumer. 0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:40.920 This type of retail sales data here fairly strong suggest 0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:44.360 that no, the U. S. Consumer can withstand higher gas prices, 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:46.160 and then if we wait a little bit longer, we 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:48.920 should see those higher gas and oil prices filter through 0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:51.280 to Capex as well. So this data here is a 0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:54.560 really good confirmation and probably very supportive of the strong 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:57.240 US narratives. Francis, I'm just trying to understand that what 0:13:57.360 --> 0:13:59.560 higher rates and a stronger US dollar means for the 0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:02.880 U s A toonomy if this continues. Well, it's part 0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:06.480 of financial conditions weakening. It's part of why has the 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:10.200 ability to be a three percent year. But that's a 0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:12.440 little bit harder. All of a sudden, we have difficult 0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:15.559 year over year comparisons, we have higher rates, and all 0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:18.120 things considered, higher rates are going to put down side 0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:20.320 pressure and then ended to do so. And we have 0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:22.960 financial conditions that are tightened, but we're still way below 0:14:23.280 --> 0:14:25.880 historical norms. And with a consumer like this, I think 0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:29.120 they have the ability to withstand it, Francis. One final question, 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:32.360 When the Montreal Canadians are as bad as they were 0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:35.239 in hockey this year, do you end up in Montreal 0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:40.080 just rooting for the Winnipeg Jets. Well, there are last hope, 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:42.880 especially now that the Raptors are out of the NBA 0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:45.280 for this season. So yes, we've got to hang on 0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:49.520 to even you that I'm not doing. I can't get there. 0:14:49.520 --> 0:15:04.720 I'm sorry. The Supreme Court opening the door to legal 0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:11.840 sports betting around the country. It invalidated federal prohibitions against 0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:14.600 the wagering on a professional as well as I believe 0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:19.280 amateur sports. Ryan A. Prit joins us now. Ryan, of 0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:23.200 course is our expert for all things Bloomberg Tax, State 0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:25.760 and Local Tax reporter. Ryan, thanks very much for being 0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:29.440 with us um tell us about this ruling and what 0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:33.440 it's going to mean for state and local governments. Absolutely well. 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:34.840 First of all, thank you guys so much for having 0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:36.840 me on. This is a great program. Love listening to 0:15:36.880 --> 0:15:39.400 as much as I can. So yes, So, yesterday the 0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:42.040 Supreme Court ruled in Murphy versus the n C double 0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:44.920 A in favor of Murphy and really in favor of 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:48.080 New Jersey. So what this ruling does is it doesn't 0:15:48.600 --> 0:15:52.000 It doesn't legalize sports betting across the board. It just 0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:56.480 repeals the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of N two, 0:15:56.600 --> 0:16:00.240 also known as Task. It repeals that in if we 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:03.240 give states the option to legalize sports betting if they 0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:07.840 choose to so, New Jersey had already passed a law 0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:11.120 that was contingent on this ruling to set them up 0:16:11.160 --> 0:16:14.200 to enact sports betting. So how to other states Mississippi, 0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:17.400 New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. So what this means 0:16:17.440 --> 0:16:19.440 for those states is that they're going to try and 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:21.840 get the ball rolling as soon as they can. Talked 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:24.240 with a lawyer who's very familiar with this topic, and 0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:27.240 he said that New Jerseys could be offering legal sports 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:31.280 bets by this weekend, definitely by the NBA finals. Um, 0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:36.000 so there's a huge untapped revenue revenue field here. You have. 0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:39.720 The American Gaming Association CEO on a call yesterday said 0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:42.120 that he believes that there's a hundred fifty billion dollars 0:16:42.120 --> 0:16:44.400 in this legal market that that they could try and 0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:48.560 suck up. What does this mean to multiple decades of 0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:52.920 young Pen Fox and young Tim Keen growing up knowing 0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:55.680 that if you bet on sports, you were maybe not 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:58.400 as bad as Pete Rose, but you were able an 0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:02.120 evil person and probably go to hell. What what that 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:05.840 that cultural, that behavioral thing that we all grew up. 0:17:05.880 --> 0:17:09.040 You don't bet on sports because it's bad. What happened 0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:12.920 yesterday to that? Oh man, Tom Boy, I'll tell you 0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:15.920 yesterday that that basically went down the garbage suppose because 0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:20.000 you even have professional sports leagues trying to get some 0:17:20.080 --> 0:17:22.040 of this revenue. You have the NBA and the MLB 0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:27.320 coming out outwardly supporting this. I mean, really is crazy. 0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:30.640 The actual MLB coming out and saying, we support legal 0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:32.720 sports betting and we want to take in one percent 0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:36.439 of that. I mean, Wow, that was fear. They lost 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:39.840 the fear of Raliota in Shoelace, Joe Jackson or whatever 0:17:39.880 --> 0:17:42.879 it was. They've lost the fear of the Chicago Black 0:17:43.280 --> 0:17:46.480 This is before your time, I remember, just slightly. But yeah, 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:51.600 say it is so yeah, I mean, and Ryan, what 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:55.200 the n the n c A A uh, they still 0:17:55.240 --> 0:17:58.960 against sports betting because I mean, this does raise a 0:17:58.960 --> 0:18:04.280 lot of issues about the integrity of the game. It does. 0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:07.000 It does, and you know that is one reason why 0:18:07.240 --> 0:18:10.479 the MLB and the NBA are trying to take one 0:18:10.520 --> 0:18:13.360 per cent there. One of their one of the reasonings 0:18:13.359 --> 0:18:15.159 to that is we're gonna be able to protect the 0:18:15.160 --> 0:18:18.040 integrity of the game if we are taking in a 0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:21.119 piece of the revenue. Um, I'm not sure if that 0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:23.280 really makes sense, but but you do have a couple 0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:25.600 of states supporting that. You have West Virginia and New 0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:28.280 York supporting it. You also have Missouri supporting it. And 0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:31.600 while while none of those states have actually enacted an 0:18:31.600 --> 0:18:35.119 integrity feet into their law, they are outwardly supporting it. 0:18:35.440 --> 0:18:37.359 You have you also have the NHL come out yesterday 0:18:37.359 --> 0:18:40.000 and say that we want our players, we want our 0:18:40.040 --> 0:18:42.880 individual players to benefit from this. If this is if 0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:45.160 this is gonna be a thing, Well when you bet 0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:47.680 like this, pim quickly here you do a Red Sox hedge, 0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:50.359 which is you bet that the Red Sox will lose. 0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:53.640 But you do that if you're a Red Sox fan 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:57.160 about April one, and then you do a spread calendar 0:18:57.200 --> 0:19:00.840 bet against it going out to July four. Will you 0:19:00.920 --> 0:19:03.240 read bet on July four that they're going to lose 0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:11.040 somehow I imagine this is going to be the word. Well, Ryan, 0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:14.520 so what's next? As you said, maybe we get we 0:19:14.640 --> 0:19:18.960 get sports betting in New Jersey by this weekend. Yeah, 0:19:19.040 --> 0:19:22.320 that's ping by this weekend, bye bye. Definitely by the 0:19:22.359 --> 0:19:26.520 NBA finals, Definitely by the Stanley Cup finals. Um so yeah, 0:19:26.600 --> 0:19:29.080 you'll you'll you'll be seeing betting in New Jersey in 0:19:29.119 --> 0:19:31.760 the next week, next two weeks. Next up from that 0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:34.600 will be Mississippi because they already have casinos. They already 0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:38.360 have a believe of sports book built down there. UM. 0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:40.360 So I'm hearing that Mississippi will be the next couple 0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:43.040 of months. The other states that have have been actually Pennsylvania, 0:19:43.080 --> 0:19:45.640 New York, West Virginia. UM. The people that I've talked 0:19:45.640 --> 0:19:47.280 to you said you'll be able to bet in those 0:19:47.320 --> 0:19:53.920 states by by the super Bowl, and um, and and 0:19:54.119 --> 0:19:59.119 next legislative session. Um, you could expect up to twenty states, 0:19:59.200 --> 0:20:02.600 maybe even more trying to propose legislation to legalize this. 0:20:03.240 --> 0:20:05.399 Ryan pretty thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. With 0:20:05.400 --> 0:20:08.000 an update there well, well do more on this coming 0:20:08.080 --> 0:20:23.440 up here. Last night of Sotheby's, a big banner was 0:20:23.480 --> 0:20:26.880 put up by Brooke Lampley over the assembled looking at 0:20:26.920 --> 0:20:30.119 wonderful fine art, which said make art great again. She 0:20:30.240 --> 0:20:34.040 succeeded in doing this at Sothebys, where she is vice chairman. 0:20:34.200 --> 0:20:37.959 She uh became smarter than most on art history at 0:20:37.960 --> 0:20:40.399 a small school in New Haven and has moved on 0:20:40.480 --> 0:20:44.560 to a truly distinguished career in art history and as 0:20:44.640 --> 0:20:47.359 vice chairman again of Sotheby's. Brook Lampley, wonderful to have 0:20:47.440 --> 0:20:50.760 you with this, I guess at Sothebys you celebrate what 0:20:50.800 --> 0:20:54.000 do you do after an auction last night including the 0:20:54.080 --> 0:20:57.040 Madigliani at a hundred and fifty plus a million? Do 0:20:57.040 --> 0:20:59.200 do you people break out, you know, the cold duck 0:20:59.320 --> 0:21:02.119 or do you go expensive and try to have a 0:21:02.119 --> 0:21:05.080 decent bottle of champagne? What do you do after an auction? 0:21:06.240 --> 0:21:09.560 We pause for a bit of celebration before going back 0:21:09.560 --> 0:21:11.919 to the auctions again. Today we saw the day sales 0:21:12.240 --> 0:21:16.440 and then tomorrow night we will be continuing the Impressionists 0:21:16.440 --> 0:21:20.440 and Modern series with the collection of Morton and Barbara Mandel, 0:21:20.800 --> 0:21:24.159 which is opening the contemporary auction on Wednesday night. So 0:21:24.840 --> 0:21:27.520 there's only a moment I was gonna let Pim jump in, 0:21:27.600 --> 0:21:30.000 but that's right where I was going to go. How 0:21:30.040 --> 0:21:35.920 do Morton and Barbara Mandel? How do we become like them? 0:21:35.960 --> 0:21:41.400 How do you put together truly the world class art 0:21:41.440 --> 0:21:45.600 that they have that they collected over their lifetime. That's 0:21:45.640 --> 0:21:48.280 such an excellent question because that's really what we're here 0:21:48.359 --> 0:21:51.359 to help people do. Um and there are many art 0:21:51.359 --> 0:21:55.480 advisors working in this space to really help guide clients 0:21:55.520 --> 0:22:00.800 to assembling great collections that span various categories but has 0:22:00.960 --> 0:22:05.880 their own internal logical, aesthetic and dialogue. What was amazing 0:22:06.000 --> 0:22:08.919 about what the Mandela's did was that they were looking 0:22:08.920 --> 0:22:13.360 at art across um, you know, an entire century. They 0:22:13.400 --> 0:22:17.800 had a fabulous large quad Miro painting hanging next to 0:22:17.840 --> 0:22:22.560 a Donald Judd stack UM, and these works created a 0:22:22.720 --> 0:22:27.800 fabulous synergy in their incredibly modern home. So UM, the 0:22:27.840 --> 0:22:31.480 collector brings a lot of context um and vision to 0:22:32.480 --> 0:22:35.400 the art that they acquire and then how they present 0:22:35.520 --> 0:22:37.639 it UM. That becomes part of the narrative of the 0:22:37.680 --> 0:22:40.280 object um and part of the history that other people 0:22:40.359 --> 0:22:42.480 then go on to acquire when they acquire that work. 0:22:43.000 --> 0:22:45.280 Brook Lampley, if I could just break in, I just 0:22:45.320 --> 0:22:47.840 want to focus for a second on the actual painting. 0:22:47.920 --> 0:22:51.119 This Madigliani that went for a hundred and thirty nine million, 0:22:51.200 --> 0:22:53.800 that was the hammer price. With the premium and so on, 0:22:53.920 --> 0:22:56.960 that goes to a hundred and fifties seven million. Who 0:22:57.000 --> 0:23:02.600 bought it? I can't, unfortunately cannot disclose any details of 0:23:02.640 --> 0:23:07.080 the buyer um. They are anonymous, UM, but suffice to 0:23:07.080 --> 0:23:11.520 say that they are someone who UM, we're very excited 0:23:11.800 --> 0:23:17.320 uh to acquire an outstanding Madigliani nude from this series 0:23:17.600 --> 0:23:22.080