1 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jailey. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg Record 5 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:39,519 Speaker 1: Weakness Dolla, Lira, Wow, that's and that's happening. Can I 6 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:44,640 Speaker 1: interrupt the very Haley Haley from Beverly Hills emails and 7 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: loved what we did in the Celtics. Wonderful, she says. 8 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:51,199 Speaker 1: More basketballball is what she says. So let's do a 9 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 1: review of the Los Angeles Lakers thirty five and forty 10 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 1: seven this year. And there is your further basketball What 11 00:00:57,440 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: is she doing? A I don't know. Hay from Rodeo 12 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 1: driving Beverly Hills. Thank you, Hay, Well, thank you very much. Hailey. 13 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 1: I'm told we have to praise Guy Johnson. Now do 14 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 1: we have to do that on Bloomberg Radio? You know why? 15 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 1: You know why? It was a solid interview. It was 16 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 1: a solid one question. It was like, have you got anymore? No, 17 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:21,680 Speaker 1: it's it was okay, it was good. I think let's 18 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 1: bring in Bloomberg's Guy Johnson Sauby, who we sat down 19 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 1: with the President of Turkey, Guy Johnson, welcome to the program, 20 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: Good morning for us. Help me out then, what was 21 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 1: your sense from the Turkish president on the direction of 22 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 1: monetary policy and what he'd like to see. He came 23 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 1: here to London, he knew what he was doing. He 24 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 1: delivered a message. The message is clear. I am in charge. 25 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 1: I'm not only in charge of the government. I'm in 26 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 1: charge of all aspects of the government. Everybody answers to me. Guy. 27 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:51,840 Speaker 1: I thought it was fabulous how singular the interview was 28 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: in our Benjamin Harvey, with years of experience in instable 29 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 1: felt the same way. We interviewed Mama sam Sek, the 30 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 1: financial guy for Mr Raawan in I MF meetings. Has 31 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 1: he even been part of the picture or is he 32 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 1: tangential to what Turkey is going to do with lear 33 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:12,519 Speaker 1: AD four point four or five. He's currently sitting next 34 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 1: to President Urdawan. He sat next to him at the 35 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 1: lunch that I hosted with President Urdawan and he was 36 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 1: president during the interview off camera obviously, but he was there. 37 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 1: So he is currently part of the team. After the elections. 38 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 1: Who knows? And that's another fact that the financial markets 39 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 1: are watching. He is one of the few last roop. 40 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:34,799 Speaker 1: In fact, I think he's the only last remaining part 41 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:37,440 Speaker 1: of the economic team that the markets have any faith in. 42 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 1: The guy. For our listeners worldwide have been following this story. 43 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 1: It's a really odd situation in Turkey where they have 44 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 1: double digit inflation and the traditional response to that is 45 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 1: higher interest rates. But we have a president in Turkey 46 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 1: who wants to see lower interest rates. Guy, did you 47 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 1: get a sense from the president of whether he was 48 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 1: worried about what was happening in the FX market, worried 49 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: about what was happening in the bond market. He was, 50 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:03,080 Speaker 1: He didn't show it, John, He honestly, he came here. 51 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:07,680 Speaker 1: This is I He came to Bloomberg, he came to London, 52 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 1: this is like, these are two kind of bastions of 53 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 1: the financial landscape. And and he walked in and he 54 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 1: delivered a message. He knew what he was doing. This 55 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:22,919 Speaker 1: wasn't something that was delivered by accidents. This was this 56 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 1: was a message that was sent loud and clear to 57 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 1: the financial community, to investors. I'm in charge. This is 58 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 1: how we're gonna run monetary policy, and I am going 59 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 1: to be the one that ultimately decides which direction that 60 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 1: is going in. He's already indicated, he did so last weekend, 61 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: that he thinks Ray should be going down, not up. 62 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 1: You have to assume that that is now the direction 63 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 1: of travel. He has a very different view of how 64 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 1: economics works. So, Guy, aside from the fact that he 65 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 1: has this really different view as to how economics work, 66 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: typically markets like independent, credible central banks. And the next 67 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 1: month there's an important election in Turkey. Talk to us 68 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 1: about what happens in the next month in terms of 69 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 1: electoral politics and how it may reshape the central bank. Well, 70 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 1: he's becoming he is, he is becoming um effectively, he's 71 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 1: going to be in sole control. At the moment we 72 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 1: have a parliamentary system, we are going to go to 73 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: an executive presidential system. That is how it's going to work. 74 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 1: All power will be centered in him. He is going 75 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 1: to change the constitution to allow himself control of almost all, 76 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 1: in fact, all of the levers of power in Turkey. 77 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 1: He everything will center on him. And as a result 78 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 1: of which, why should monetary policy be any different? Guy, 79 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:35,920 Speaker 1: fantastic interview, Just a brilliant interview, and Guy Johnson Tom 80 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:38,159 Speaker 1: Kane even said it was solid, and I think that 81 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 1: hurt him a little bit. Taking the box that did 82 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 1: that hurt a little bit to admit that it was solid. No, 83 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 1: it was great. It was you know. And I will 84 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 1: say this as well, it's very hard, much harder, I 85 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:52,160 Speaker 1: should say, to do an interview where they're answering in 86 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 1: their own language. That really can with a translator, and 87 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:59,159 Speaker 1: it really changes the dynamic from you know, like a 88 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:02,479 Speaker 1: craft point, from a method standpoint, and it took the 89 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 1: story forward. I'll say, yeah, and I don't care. The 90 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 1: bottom light is the market doesn't give a damn what 91 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:13,280 Speaker 1: Guy Johnson thinks. Is guy going now so shreds? Okay? 92 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:17,239 Speaker 1: The bottom light is the market john Pharaoh. The market 93 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:19,360 Speaker 1: is saying to Guy Johnson, you don't know what you're 94 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 1: talking about. I think the market is saying that to 95 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 1: the President of Turkey, let's bring in Phoenix. Kalin Shaw, 96 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:29,279 Speaker 1: Society General director of Emerging Market Strategy. Phenis great to 97 00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 1: have you with us on the program. Your thoughts on 98 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 1: that Bloomberg exclusive, the interview with the Turkish president and 99 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:38,599 Speaker 1: how it shapes your views on the Turkish currency. Now, yeah, 100 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 1: I think it's just shocking the message that he actually 101 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: delivered to an international audience of all people, um, which 102 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 1: really undermined any credibility that investors still had in the 103 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 1: Central Bank of Turkey and in what actions they're able 104 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 1: to take to to stem the current currency routes. So 105 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:59,080 Speaker 1: I think you know, there's, um, there's there's a lack 106 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 1: of credibility on the part of policymakers to to try 107 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 1: to take the appropriate actions, and so we're likely to 108 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 1: head towards that currency crisis. Phoenix, if your morass setting 109 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 1: Ki the governor of the Central Bank of Turkey, what 110 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:17,360 Speaker 1: on earth do you do now? Well, I guess it's 111 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:20,039 Speaker 1: it's difficult to understand the place that he's in, considering 112 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,599 Speaker 1: the kind of political dress that he's under, and we 113 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:25,600 Speaker 1: don't have, you know, a clear sense of what that is. 114 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 1: But if he, if he were able to to take 115 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:32,599 Speaker 1: the full powers of his role, then it would be 116 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: to necessarily calm down the markets via coming out and asserting, um, 117 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:42,039 Speaker 1: the independence of the central bank and try to do 118 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 1: an emergency rate hike, which is what the market is 119 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 1: demanding in order to address the currency routes. Yeah, I look, 120 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 1: Phoenix at Turkey, is it discreet to you, I mean 121 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 1: you follow at full time for Sarjen. Is it a 122 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 1: screed event or does this have not kind of affects 123 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:04,720 Speaker 1: other countries? Well, I think right now Turkey is kind 124 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 1: of an isolated situation because we do see some stress 125 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:11,400 Speaker 1: on other emerging markets right now, but nowhere neither the 126 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 1: extent that Turkey is experiencing. And that's coming from the 127 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:17,880 Speaker 1: combination of vulnerabilities that the Turkey has in terms of 128 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 1: you know, exposure to UM, high oil imports with rising 129 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 1: oil prices right now, and high external financing needs UM. 130 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 1: So it's it's a confluence of all of those factories. Okay, 131 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 1: I'm glad you mentioned oil Brent crude seventy nine oh seven. 132 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 1: Does Brent crude at seventy nine oh seven does that 133 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 1: fold right in to reduce GDP and Turkey are they 134 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: going into recession as we speak? Well, I think it 135 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 1: functions more into the trade channels of really impacting the 136 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 1: trade balance and then the current account deficits and and 137 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 1: exacerbating those external vulnerabilities and from there influencing the financing 138 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 1: channels and then onwards to GDP growth. So it's it's 139 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:09,280 Speaker 1: a few steps, but yes, that does ultimately curb down consumption. Um, 140 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: as we move into this this latter cycle, which I 141 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 1: suppose is what President Era to want is trying to 142 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 1: prevent by trying to over stimulate growth. Phoenix, Just before 143 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 1: we lose you, one final question. You did mention in 144 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 1: this conversation and risk of a currency crisis in Turkey? 145 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 1: What is the currency crisis in Turkey? And how how 146 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 1: close are we too? Want? There's no pressure on Phoenix. 147 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 1: We just want to know where the tipping point is it? 148 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 1: Is it a five handle? Dora? I don't know, Phoenix, 149 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 1: what is it? Well? I just hope it's not a 150 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: six handle? Um, Phoenix, there's no pressure. You're the General 151 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:44,440 Speaker 1: Council of SOEN is not listening. Okay, what's the tip 152 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 1: point here? What's the tip point here in the crisis? 153 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:51,439 Speaker 1: I think I think this is it. This is you 154 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 1: know that US witnessing that the central bank has no 155 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:58,120 Speaker 1: ability to step in and and do UM and take 156 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 1: the appropriate actions, and with the political authorities coming down 157 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:05,559 Speaker 1: on them, this is sort of the US sending into 158 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 1: the crisis. Phois. Thank you so much. Fizz Kalin with 159 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 1: US General, let's get an economic night to Shally he's 160 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 1: been down. Two dice, hello, Jonathan. Retail sales and Manufacturing, 161 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: the Commerce Department reporting retail sales rose point three percent 162 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:38,680 Speaker 1: in April, less than the prior month, which has actually 163 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 1: revised a bit higher, but inline with forecasts. Excluding autos, 164 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 1: we see a point three percent increase. The retail sales 165 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 1: control group, which you know, Tom Keen monitors closely up 166 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 1: point four percent, a bit lower than the prior month. 167 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 1: Manufacturing Federal Reserve, Bank of New York, Empire Manufacturing Index, 168 00:09:56,440 --> 00:10:00,079 Speaker 1: Regional Index topping forecasts up to twenty point one. In 169 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 1: the headline, retail sales up point three percent in April. 170 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:07,080 Speaker 1: I'm let's go back to New York. Little Saggyny, thank 171 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:09,679 Speaker 1: you so much, greatly appreciate that little saga report. En 172 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 1: moves weaker. Yen off that these are little little tweaks. 173 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 1: I don't want to overplay that dollar stronger, uh En 174 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:18,680 Speaker 1: moves weaker, but there's a lot of other noise out there. 175 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 1: Ten yere yield importantly just now goes through three point 176 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 1: zero three to four digits three point zero three three 177 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 1: six on the tenure yield equity features to tier A 178 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 1: negative nine down futures negative one oh two. Um, it 179 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 1: is good to get an update from Francis Donald. She 180 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 1: is with Manual Life on the American economy on Canada 181 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 1: as well. We said good morning to all of you 182 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: across Canada. Uh, francis the character of the retail report 183 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:49,680 Speaker 1: Beneath it, there's a lot of data. When you dive 184 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 1: into the data today to write your manual life. Note, 185 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:56,680 Speaker 1: what kind of data do you look at? The granular 186 00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 1: UH pages and pages? Well, number one is that control 187 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 1: group number that comes through, because that's what the Bureau 188 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 1: of Economic Analysis is going to use to calculate the 189 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:10,160 Speaker 1: GDP number. So we can breathe. A five release that 190 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 1: came in on expectations today and does suggest that Q 191 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 1: two is going to be the comeback kid that we 192 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: were hopeful it will be. Under the surface, we're looking 193 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 1: at things like gas sales important because those gas prices 194 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:26,199 Speaker 1: rising are eating into consumer pocketbooks. We're going to take 195 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 1: a look at autos to make sure we're not seeing 196 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 1: too much of a deceleration there. And then my personal favorite, 197 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 1: I always have an eye on those non store retailers. 198 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 1: Not because there's a day to day trade there or 199 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:39,319 Speaker 1: even quartered a quarter trade, but they've become so significant 200 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 1: that they are starting to move the economic picture in abroad. 201 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:46,200 Speaker 1: So let's rephrase that to be clear. Amazon is in 202 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 1: this data this morning. They are so total retail sales 203 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 1: have been running about four or five percent year a year. 204 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 1: Non store retailers overhead or double that, closer to ten 205 00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 1: percent year every year. Online retail sales of grown from 206 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 1: about three percent of total retail sales in the up 207 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 1: to eleven percent today, and they've captured about six of 208 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 1: all retail sales growth that the past two years. And 209 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 1: that's why we have to watch non store retailers because 210 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 1: they become part of the inflation data. That's the link 211 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 1: between the two. Do you, as a non sell side 212 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 1: retail internet E type as an economist, do you just 213 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 1: extrapolate Amazon's market share growth? Well, we pay attention to it, 214 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 1: and the most important extrapolation is really what it means 215 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:34,680 Speaker 1: for pricing power. What does this mean for companies and 216 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:37,720 Speaker 1: their ability to lift the price of their goods and 217 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 1: services over time? And is this part of the disinflationary story. 218 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 1: When I look at retail sales data, and every time 219 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:47,440 Speaker 1: I see that non store retailers never come through, I 220 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 1: just think this is disinflation. I just want to get 221 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 1: to the price section. Francis, what's happening in the market, 222 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:55,559 Speaker 1: A new year today high, a new one year high, 223 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:57,840 Speaker 1: new multi year high on the US tenure year at 224 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:01,400 Speaker 1: three point zero four percent. Don't a strength, renewed dollar 225 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:03,720 Speaker 1: strength against everything in G ten and the bulk of 226 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 1: emerging markets as well. Francis, what do you make of 227 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:09,280 Speaker 1: what we're seeing in the rates market as rates and 228 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 1: the US dollar seemingly a recaupling over the last month. Yeah, 229 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 1: this is confirmation that the US just had a soggy 230 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 1: first quarter, that there's strength behind the US consumer moving forward. 231 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:23,680 Speaker 1: The US consumer has been the pillar of growth in 232 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:26,200 Speaker 1: the United States, and we're hoping that we can withstand 233 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 1: that pillar and then add to it with some additional 234 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 1: capex down the road. Now, higher oil prices has been 235 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 1: a double edged sword here. In one sense, will worry 236 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:37,960 Speaker 1: that that's going to put some breaks on the U. S. Consumer. 237 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 1: This type of retail sales data here fairly strong suggest 238 00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 1: that no, the U. S. Consumer can withstand higher gas prices, 239 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 1: and then if we wait a little bit longer, we 240 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 1: should see those higher gas and oil prices filter through 241 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 1: to Capex as well. So this data here is a 242 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:54,560 Speaker 1: really good confirmation and probably very supportive of the strong 243 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 1: US narratives. Francis, I'm just trying to understand that what 244 00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 1: higher rates and a stronger US dollar means for the 245 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 1: U s A toonomy if this continues. Well, it's part 246 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 1: of financial conditions weakening. It's part of why has the 247 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 1: ability to be a three percent year. But that's a 248 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:12,440 Speaker 1: little bit harder. All of a sudden, we have difficult 249 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:15,559 Speaker 1: year over year comparisons, we have higher rates, and all 250 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:18,120 Speaker 1: things considered, higher rates are going to put down side 251 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 1: pressure and then ended to do so. And we have 252 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:22,960 Speaker 1: financial conditions that are tightened, but we're still way below 253 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:25,880 Speaker 1: historical norms. And with a consumer like this, I think 254 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 1: they have the ability to withstand it, Francis. One final question, 255 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,360 Speaker 1: When the Montreal Canadians are as bad as they were 256 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:35,239 Speaker 1: in hockey this year, do you end up in Montreal 257 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: just rooting for the Winnipeg Jets. Well, there are last hope, 258 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 1: especially now that the Raptors are out of the NBA 259 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 1: for this season. So yes, we've got to hang on 260 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 1: to even you that I'm not doing. I can't get there. 261 00:14:49,520 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 1: I'm sorry. The Supreme Court opening the door to legal 262 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 1: sports betting around the country. It invalidated federal prohibitions against 263 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 1: the wagering on a professional as well as I believe 264 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:19,280 Speaker 1: amateur sports. Ryan A. Prit joins us now. Ryan, of 265 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:23,200 Speaker 1: course is our expert for all things Bloomberg Tax, State 266 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: and Local Tax reporter. Ryan, thanks very much for being 267 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 1: with us um tell us about this ruling and what 268 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: it's going to mean for state and local governments. Absolutely well. 269 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 1: First of all, thank you guys so much for having 270 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 1: me on. This is a great program. Love listening to 271 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 1: as much as I can. So yes, So, yesterday the 272 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 1: Supreme Court ruled in Murphy versus the n C double 273 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 1: A in favor of Murphy and really in favor of 274 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 1: New Jersey. So what this ruling does is it doesn't 275 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 1: It doesn't legalize sports betting across the board. It just 276 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 1: repeals the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of N two, 277 00:15:56,600 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 1: also known as Task. It repeals that in if we 278 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 1: give states the option to legalize sports betting if they 279 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:07,840 Speaker 1: choose to so, New Jersey had already passed a law 280 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: that was contingent on this ruling to set them up 281 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 1: to enact sports betting. So how to other states Mississippi, 282 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 1: New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. So what this means 283 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 1: for those states is that they're going to try and 284 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: get the ball rolling as soon as they can. Talked 285 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 1: with a lawyer who's very familiar with this topic, and 286 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 1: he said that New Jerseys could be offering legal sports 287 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:31,280 Speaker 1: bets by this weekend, definitely by the NBA finals. Um, 288 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:36,000 Speaker 1: so there's a huge untapped revenue revenue field here. You have. 289 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:39,720 Speaker 1: The American Gaming Association CEO on a call yesterday said 290 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 1: that he believes that there's a hundred fifty billion dollars 291 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 1: in this legal market that that they could try and 292 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 1: suck up. What does this mean to multiple decades of 293 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 1: young Pen Fox and young Tim Keen growing up knowing 294 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 1: that if you bet on sports, you were maybe not 295 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 1: as bad as Pete Rose, but you were able an 296 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 1: evil person and probably go to hell. What what that 297 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 1: that cultural, that behavioral thing that we all grew up. 298 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 1: You don't bet on sports because it's bad. What happened 299 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:12,920 Speaker 1: yesterday to that? Oh man, Tom Boy, I'll tell you 300 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:15,920 Speaker 1: yesterday that that basically went down the garbage suppose because 301 00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 1: you even have professional sports leagues trying to get some 302 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:22,040 Speaker 1: of this revenue. You have the NBA and the MLB 303 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 1: coming out outwardly supporting this. I mean, really is crazy. 304 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:30,640 Speaker 1: The actual MLB coming out and saying, we support legal 305 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 1: sports betting and we want to take in one percent 306 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:36,439 Speaker 1: of that. I mean, Wow, that was fear. They lost 307 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 1: the fear of Raliota in Shoelace, Joe Jackson or whatever 308 00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:42,879 Speaker 1: it was. They've lost the fear of the Chicago Black 309 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 1: This is before your time, I remember, just slightly. But yeah, 310 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 1: say it is so yeah, I mean, and Ryan, what 311 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:55,200 Speaker 1: the n the n c A A uh, they still 312 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 1: against sports betting because I mean, this does raise a 313 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 1: lot of issues about the integrity of the game. It does. 314 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 1: It does, and you know that is one reason why 315 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:10,479 Speaker 1: the MLB and the NBA are trying to take one 316 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:13,360 Speaker 1: per cent there. One of their one of the reasonings 317 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:15,159 Speaker 1: to that is we're gonna be able to protect the 318 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: integrity of the game if we are taking in a 319 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:21,119 Speaker 1: piece of the revenue. Um, I'm not sure if that 320 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 1: really makes sense, but but you do have a couple 321 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: of states supporting that. You have West Virginia and New 322 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 1: York supporting it. You also have Missouri supporting it. And 323 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 1: while while none of those states have actually enacted an 324 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:35,119 Speaker 1: integrity feet into their law, they are outwardly supporting it. 325 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:37,359 Speaker 1: You have you also have the NHL come out yesterday 326 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 1: and say that we want our players, we want our 327 00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:42,880 Speaker 1: individual players to benefit from this. If this is if 328 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:45,160 Speaker 1: this is gonna be a thing, Well when you bet 329 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:47,680 Speaker 1: like this, pim quickly here you do a Red Sox hedge, 330 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,359 Speaker 1: which is you bet that the Red Sox will lose. 331 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:53,640 Speaker 1: But you do that if you're a Red Sox fan 332 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:57,160 Speaker 1: about April one, and then you do a spread calendar 333 00:18:57,200 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 1: bet against it going out to July four. Will you 334 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 1: read bet on July four that they're going to lose 335 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 1: somehow I imagine this is going to be the word. Well, Ryan, 336 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 1: so what's next? As you said, maybe we get we 337 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 1: get sports betting in New Jersey by this weekend. Yeah, 338 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 1: that's ping by this weekend, bye bye. Definitely by the 339 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:26,520 Speaker 1: NBA finals, Definitely by the Stanley Cup finals. Um so yeah, 340 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 1: you'll you'll you'll be seeing betting in New Jersey in 341 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 1: the next week, next two weeks. Next up from that 342 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 1: will be Mississippi because they already have casinos. They already 343 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:38,360 Speaker 1: have a believe of sports book built down there. UM. 344 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:40,360 Speaker 1: So I'm hearing that Mississippi will be the next couple 345 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 1: of months. The other states that have have been actually Pennsylvania, 346 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,640 Speaker 1: New York, West Virginia. UM. The people that I've talked 347 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 1: to you said you'll be able to bet in those 348 00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:53,920 Speaker 1: states by by the super Bowl, and um, and and 349 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:59,119 Speaker 1: next legislative session. Um, you could expect up to twenty states, 350 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 1: maybe even more trying to propose legislation to legalize this. 351 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,399 Speaker 1: Ryan pretty thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. With 352 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: an update there well, well do more on this coming 353 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:23,440 Speaker 1: up here. Last night of Sotheby's, a big banner was 354 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:26,880 Speaker 1: put up by Brooke Lampley over the assembled looking at 355 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 1: wonderful fine art, which said make art great again. She 356 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:34,040 Speaker 1: succeeded in doing this at Sothebys, where she is vice chairman. 357 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,959 Speaker 1: She uh became smarter than most on art history at 358 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,399 Speaker 1: a small school in New Haven and has moved on 359 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 1: to a truly distinguished career in art history and as 360 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:47,359 Speaker 1: vice chairman again of Sotheby's. Brook Lampley, wonderful to have 361 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,760 Speaker 1: you with this, I guess at Sothebys you celebrate what 362 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 1: do you do after an auction last night including the 363 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 1: Madigliani at a hundred and fifty plus a million? Do 364 00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 1: do you people break out, you know, the cold duck 365 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:02,119 Speaker 1: or do you go expensive and try to have a 366 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 1: decent bottle of champagne? What do you do after an auction? 367 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 1: We pause for a bit of celebration before going back 368 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:11,919 Speaker 1: to the auctions again. Today we saw the day sales 369 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:16,440 Speaker 1: and then tomorrow night we will be continuing the Impressionists 370 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:20,440 Speaker 1: and Modern series with the collection of Morton and Barbara Mandel, 371 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:24,159 Speaker 1: which is opening the contemporary auction on Wednesday night. So 372 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,520 Speaker 1: there's only a moment I was gonna let Pim jump in, 373 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 1: but that's right where I was going to go. How 374 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:35,920 Speaker 1: do Morton and Barbara Mandel? How do we become like them? 375 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:41,400 Speaker 1: How do you put together truly the world class art 376 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 1: that they have that they collected over their lifetime. That's 377 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 1: such an excellent question because that's really what we're here 378 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:51,359 Speaker 1: to help people do. Um and there are many art 379 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 1: advisors working in this space to really help guide clients 380 00:21:55,520 --> 00:22:00,800 Speaker 1: to assembling great collections that span various categories but has 381 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:05,880 Speaker 1: their own internal logical, aesthetic and dialogue. What was amazing 382 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,919 Speaker 1: about what the Mandela's did was that they were looking 383 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:13,360 Speaker 1: at art across um, you know, an entire century. They 384 00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:17,800 Speaker 1: had a fabulous large quad Miro painting hanging next to 385 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:22,560 Speaker 1: a Donald Judd stack UM, and these works created a 386 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:27,800 Speaker 1: fabulous synergy in their incredibly modern home. So UM, the 387 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:31,480 Speaker 1: collector brings a lot of context um and vision to 388 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,400 Speaker 1: the art that they acquire and then how they present 389 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,639 Speaker 1: it UM. That becomes part of the narrative of the 390 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 1: object um and part of the history that other people 391 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,480 Speaker 1: then go on to acquire when they acquire that work. 392 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 1: Brook Lampley, if I could just break in, I just 393 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 1: want to focus for a second on the actual painting. 394 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:51,119 Speaker 1: This Madigliani that went for a hundred and thirty nine million, 395 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 1: that was the hammer price. With the premium and so on, 396 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:56,960 Speaker 1: that goes to a hundred and fifties seven million. Who 397 00:22:57,000 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 1: bought it? I can't, unfortunately cannot disclose any details of 398 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:07,080 Speaker 1: the buyer um. They are anonymous, UM, but suffice to 399 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 1: say that they are someone who UM, we're very excited 400 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:17,320 Speaker 1: uh to acquire an outstanding Madigliani nude from this series 401 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:22,080 Speaker 1: and felt very confident in the price, so much that 402 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:25,359 Speaker 1: they committed to guarantee the work in advance of the sale. 403 00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 1: So what does that mean when you say guarantee in 404 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:31,720 Speaker 1: in UH in advance of the sale that they already 405 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 1: agreed to pay a certain amount of money if the 406 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:38,359 Speaker 1: this work was guaranteed to sell going into the sale. Um, 407 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 1: we had UH committed price that was going to be 408 00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:46,520 Speaker 1: achieved for the consigner UM on the evening of the event. 409 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,639 Speaker 1: And UM it was already a fantastic result that the 410 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:55,880 Speaker 1: container was very excited about. And it's just a tremendous 411 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 1: testament to the growth in this particular market. I mean 412 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 1: to see that um sixfold appreciation since two thousand three. 413 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 1: And who was the seller? Can you tell us that? No, 414 00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:11,159 Speaker 1: we can't disclose any details of the seller either. Have 415 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,440 Speaker 1: you seen just the fun of information yet? He was 416 00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:18,359 Speaker 1: gonna say, because Lisa smiling on my side of this, 417 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:23,480 Speaker 1: because the last the record auction for Modigliani, right was 418 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:27,320 Speaker 1: that was set in and that was for a painting 419 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 1: that I believe sold for about a hundred and seventy million, 420 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:35,440 Speaker 1: and that was purchased by the Chinese collector Lou Quan. Yes, 421 00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:38,320 Speaker 1: and I was there at that time as well, And 422 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 1: UM that was a fantastic result. And it's to me 423 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:46,800 Speaker 1: very interesting to think given that they that is a 424 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:50,919 Speaker 1: private collector who is acquiring for their public institution, the 425 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:56,439 Speaker 1: Long Museum, UM, it would be an interesting exercise to 426 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:58,840 Speaker 1: try and imagine what this work might have sold for 427 00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,359 Speaker 1: U if that buyer were still in the market and 428 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 1: hadn't already acquired a great example of a Medicaliani nude 429 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:10,400 Speaker 1: for their museum. Brook you have advanced art like nobody. 430 00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:11,919 Speaker 1: I mean, you get a lot of credit for you know, 431 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,359 Speaker 1: you had Johnny Depp's collection. Blah blah blah. What do 432 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:19,639 Speaker 1: you need to play? Of our listeners like like to 433 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:23,480 Speaker 1: go into you and your good competitors, including Bottoms one 434 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:26,919 Speaker 1: block over from US Park Avenue. What do you need 435 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:32,359 Speaker 1: to play the game to assemble modest or better than 436 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 1: modest collection over twenty or thirty years. I can't say 437 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,720 Speaker 1: that I believe there's truly any barrier to entry. You 438 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:45,200 Speaker 1: need passion and love and excitement about what you're looking at. 439 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 1: And so many of the best collections that we regard 440 00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:53,320 Speaker 1: now today, in hindsight, were formed by people just acquiring 441 00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 1: things that moved them, then they loved, and I think 442 00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:00,600 Speaker 1: people learn over time, and it shapes the collection that 443 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 1: they form. Money helps, though, doesn't it? Money helps, doesn't it? 444 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:11,560 Speaker 1: But we sell works from every praise. I understand that. 445 00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 1: But I mean, I mean we're talking about you know, 446 00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,879 Speaker 1: Medigliani that goes for a hundred and you know, fifty 447 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:21,160 Speaker 1: million dollars. Picasso, right, I mean you're talking a hundred 448 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 1: and eighty million. Uh is there any limit? Do you believe? 449 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:29,080 Speaker 1: I mean we've seen that, uh, Leonardo right, the uh? 450 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,800 Speaker 1: I think it went for four hundred and fifty million dollars. 451 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:35,399 Speaker 1: Leonardo da Vinci, Salvatore Mundi that went for four hundred 452 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:40,719 Speaker 1: and fifty million dollars, Brooke, Brooke within this is the 453 00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:43,720 Speaker 1: different auctions that Sothoby does. And maybe this is away 454 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:45,919 Speaker 1: from your core competience, but I kind of think you 455 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 1: can speak to it. How's photography doing? I mean there's 456 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,200 Speaker 1: always been the critics, well you should pain or pot 457 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,480 Speaker 1: Photography will have its moment. It's it's vogue. You have 458 00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,400 Speaker 1: in London, you have on May seventeenth, just two days 459 00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:02,360 Speaker 1: from now, a photograph auction. Is there a spirit there 460 00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:05,359 Speaker 1: as well, like you saw last night in New York? Absolutely? 461 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:07,760 Speaker 1: And I think the important point is that um as 462 00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:10,440 Speaker 1: more people enter the market, as there's greater and greater 463 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:15,879 Speaker 1: knowledge and confidence in the art market, people are increasingly 464 00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 1: apt to appreciate works for their quality and not um 465 00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:27,720 Speaker 1: segregate them in terms of medium or region. Um it's 466 00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 1: you know it works on paper or on the rise. 467 00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,560 Speaker 1: Photographs are definitely on the rise. You'll see an increasing 468 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,240 Speaker 1: number of photographs that are being offered in the contemporary 469 00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:41,440 Speaker 1: art sale as opposed to a photograph sale, because we're 470 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:47,919 Speaker 1: finding that those um, those small, those regional categories, for 471 00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 1: example American paintings or Latin American painting specifically, which we 472 00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,520 Speaker 1: integrated into their Impressionists and modern sales this season for 473 00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:58,560 Speaker 1: the first time, they're increasingly outmoded. People are just looking 474 00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:01,040 Speaker 1: for great works, and you mention in the tape modern 475 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 1: jump starting the Madigliani nudes and all that, or what 476 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:07,600 Speaker 1: the v n A did with medieval tapestry a year 477 00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:09,960 Speaker 1: and a half ago, or what they just did the 478 00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:14,399 Speaker 1: Child's the first exhibition in London. To museum exhibitions drive 479 00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:18,639 Speaker 1: your world of collecting. There's a balance, but yes, I 480 00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:22,720 Speaker 1: would say generally they do. They can increase momentum or 481 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:28,240 Speaker 1: accelerate interest in a space where interest already exists a 482 00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 1: great example of that, in addition to the Madigliani retrospective 483 00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:38,200 Speaker 1: would be the exhibition of Picasso's works from thirty two 484 00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 1: that is presently at the Tate Modern and previously was 485 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:46,920 Speaker 1: in Paris. People were already seduced by Picasso paintings and 486 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:51,520 Speaker 1: re test and as great depictions of Dora have become 487 00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 1: increasingly scarce um people are turning to other lovers as 488 00:28:55,960 --> 00:29:01,680 Speaker 1: Marquis subjects. But certainly this exhibition helps to focus interest 489 00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:05,920 Speaker 1: on that period and accelerate the prices. I mean, I mean, 490 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,480 Speaker 1: Brooke very quickly here, and I know your husband was 491 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:12,240 Speaker 1: bidding on this. Sothobes in Europe had the Bulgari diamond 492 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:16,120 Speaker 1: ring like four thousand carrots or something that when three times, 493 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,800 Speaker 1: how's jewelry doing that? I mean, John Tucker, is that 494 00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 1: your is that? We'll have to leave it there. Brook, 495 00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:25,680 Speaker 1: you're doing jewelry book. I see, that's good to see 496 00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:31,000 Speaker 1: you're doing. And Bailey, very good. Brook Lampley, thank you 497 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:35,240 Speaker 1: so much. Congratulations to all of Stobs on a spectacular 498 00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:38,160 Speaker 1: auction last night. I led by the mediculing on musician 499 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 1: and well. Brook Lampley is Vice chairman of Stobs. We 500 00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,760 Speaker 1: could go on with her forever, but believe it here 501 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 1: with a really interesting market. Thanks for listening to the 502 00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:59,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple 503 00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:05,120 Speaker 1: podcast S, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 504 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:08,480 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast. You can 505 00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,720 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio