WEBVTT - Introducing: Merryn Talks Money

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<v Speaker 1>Already. Hello, I'm mare In Somerset Web and this hang on,

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<v Speaker 1>this is Nearing Talks Money. Right, I take a bit

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<v Speaker 1>of practice. Hello, I'm Maren Somerset Web and this is

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<v Speaker 1>Marin Talks Money, the podcast in which people who know

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<v Speaker 1>the markets explain the markets. Now, we're not really going

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<v Speaker 1>to get into this until December, when we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>start having a podcast every week talking to some of

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<v Speaker 1>the most interesting people in the markets in fun, management

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<v Speaker 1>and well and anything you can think of anything to

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<v Speaker 1>do with money, we are going to talk about it.

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<v Speaker 1>But today I have with me the person who I've

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<v Speaker 1>probably talked to the most over the last twenty years,

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<v Speaker 1>my good friend John Steppack, who writes the newsletter, the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg newsletter Money Distilled, which I'm sure you all already

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<v Speaker 1>subscribe to, and if you don't, you need to go

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<v Speaker 1>away and sign up to it right now because it

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<v Speaker 1>is absolutely brilliant. John is a very clever man. Hello,

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<v Speaker 1>John Hill, and I'd like to just subtly agson you

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<v Speaker 1>just said thank you very much. Now, over the last fifteen, sixteen,

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<v Speaker 1>seventeen years, John and I have been having conversations all

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<v Speaker 1>over the place, and there are a couple of subjects

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<v Speaker 1>that we always come back to and that I think

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<v Speaker 1>we'll be covering on this podcast, which, by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>don't get over excited. John is not going to appear

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<v Speaker 1>every time, but it will be popping in and out

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<v Speaker 1>of this podcast, so you'll get to know his voice

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<v Speaker 1>pretty well. But the subjects that we have been talking

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<v Speaker 1>about relentlessly and we will keep talking about over the

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<v Speaker 1>coming years. We talk about house prices. We talk about

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<v Speaker 1>UK equity markets, US secretary markets. We talk about bubbles.

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<v Speaker 1>We love to talk about bubbles and booms and bust

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<v Speaker 1>and we will talk about those a lot. Talk about

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<v Speaker 1>how construct p folios. We talk about precious metals, We

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<v Speaker 1>talk about the energy transition, We talk about fossil fuels.

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<v Speaker 1>Were a little keener on fossil fuels and most people aren't.

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<v Speaker 1>We um, So John, let's talk about what you've been

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<v Speaker 1>writing about in Money Distilled recently. What's on your mind?

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<v Speaker 1>I suppose the main thing is that there's been kind

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<v Speaker 1>of two big things. So why is inflation? Obviously because

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<v Speaker 1>the moment we're kind of going into that period where

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<v Speaker 1>him thinking, okay, are we are we near the peak?

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<v Speaker 1>Is that it? And then can we go back to

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<v Speaker 1>the way that things were like three years ago, before

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<v Speaker 1>all the acceptable currency blew up, and when house prices

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<v Speaker 1>were still going up and acid places were still going up,

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<v Speaker 1>and interest rates with at zero percent. And basically the

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<v Speaker 1>answer is no, and I'm not sure that anyone's quite

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<v Speaker 1>figured out that's no. This is for keeps. Ten percent

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<v Speaker 1>inflation isn't gonna be permanent, but we're not going back

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<v Speaker 1>to zero percent inflation either. So basically, inflation is both

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<v Speaker 1>transient and structural. Right, That's the thing that we've been

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<v Speaker 1>talking about for ages. We've been saying, you've got the

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<v Speaker 1>transient element in there, but don't be fooled when it peaks,

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<v Speaker 1>because there's a lot of dynamics in here that means

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<v Speaker 1>that inflation at four or five percent is a long

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<v Speaker 1>term dynamic. You're not coming to You're not come back

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<v Speaker 1>to one. Not come back to Zra No actually really interested.

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<v Speaker 1>So um A Chapel and Twitter who have followed Dario Perkins,

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<v Speaker 1>who is it Tyes Lombard and he's very good, he's

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<v Speaker 1>a smart guy. But he was reposted something from it.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know the guest as you should, but reposted

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<v Speaker 1>this A couple of things that an e CV equanimis

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<v Speaker 1>have done talking about UM. Basically, what they've done is

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<v Speaker 1>they've done a counter factor looking at what would have

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<v Speaker 1>happened if you joined nineteen seventies style monetary policy during

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<v Speaker 1>the Great Moderation, which is the period when you know,

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<v Speaker 1>basically inflation felt nothing and you know, we had this

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<v Speaker 1>kind of boom period and it wouldn't made any difference,

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<v Speaker 1>is what they found. And so their argument was, well,

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<v Speaker 1>actually what's driven the Great Moderation were structural influences, which

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<v Speaker 1>were fairly obvious, things like, you know, kind of the

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<v Speaker 1>global labor market expanding to include China and China manufact

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<v Speaker 1>on what's the cheap goods, and that's what can have

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<v Speaker 1>suppressed prices for that length of time and the course

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<v Speaker 1>we're going, and that reduced the power of labor. So

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<v Speaker 1>we just stayed low for ages, you know, so that

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<v Speaker 1>you can lay it pretty much at the door of

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<v Speaker 1>China technology increasing that, demographics, et cetera, and that's it,

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<v Speaker 1>and then we had this dynamic West central bankers believed

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<v Speaker 1>that they did this, They did this, I mean the arrogance, right,

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<v Speaker 1>arrogance that they did this, and then come the inflation.

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<v Speaker 1>They believe that they can get rid of it, but

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<v Speaker 1>of course they can't because all these structural things have

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<v Speaker 1>turned around. Globalization has peaked, power is returning to labor.

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<v Speaker 1>We just will start to rise globally. Yeah, which is

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<v Speaker 1>which is good for for what girls, It's going to

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<v Speaker 1>be a much harder time for I said winners and investors.

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<v Speaker 1>Law um so, I mean, I guess that's one reason

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<v Speaker 1>why we can spend a lot of time talking about

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<v Speaker 1>it because then and I kind of decades of inflation

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<v Speaker 1>volatility is giving a much tougher sort of environment in

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<v Speaker 1>the last twenty years of actually inflation with altility, not

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<v Speaker 1>just inflation sitting around at four inflation moving all over

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<v Speaker 1>the place. Yeah, that's that's so much worse. Yeah, Like

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<v Speaker 1>I like that as a as a coincept because it's

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<v Speaker 1>last thing. I don't know if you've seen a bit

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<v Speaker 1>again Deutsche Bank. That needs to be historical study. But

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<v Speaker 1>as soon as inflation sent basically and I've seen other

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<v Speaker 1>people talk about us as well. Was that idea that

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's almost like you get a state change, so

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<v Speaker 1>you know, like when you boil water, it's all it's

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<v Speaker 1>just water, water, water, and then it's suddenly steam and

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<v Speaker 1>suddenly all you know, the way acts changes totally. It's

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<v Speaker 1>the same way the economy and inflation. So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>up to about you know, mid single digits, it's kina predictable.

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<v Speaker 1>But then once it goes above eight percent or another figure,

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<v Speaker 1>then it starts to king of bounce around a lot

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<v Speaker 1>over a prolonged period of time. And when once it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to above that, it's never going back to as

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<v Speaker 1>quickly to the sort of areas that markets have price

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<v Speaker 1>and then just now, so it doesn't go back to

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<v Speaker 1>two percent next year, you know, you're lucky if it

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<v Speaker 1>goes back to kind of six percent. So I am

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<v Speaker 1>so yeah. I mean, I think it's going to be

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<v Speaker 1>a very very different kind of world from the one

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<v Speaker 1>that actually the vast majority of us growing up in

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<v Speaker 1>and invested through. But one of the things that we've

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<v Speaker 1>talked about a lot of the years, and we'll try

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<v Speaker 1>and get the wonderful Russell Napier, who's a brilliant strategist.

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<v Speaker 1>We're trying to get him on the podcast, so every everyone,

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<v Speaker 1>I love him. And one of the things that he

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<v Speaker 1>talks about is how this is the dream for full

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<v Speaker 1>governments anyway, to have inflation at four or five percent

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<v Speaker 1>to everyone to feel okay with that, because once inflation

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<v Speaker 1>is being temper cent, everyone's okay with four percent um.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you can keep it at four or five

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<v Speaker 1>percent and you can have negative real interest rates during

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<v Speaker 1>that time, my nominal rates below four or five percent,

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<v Speaker 1>then you can really work on getting rid of public

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<v Speaker 1>debt and everything's going to be okay in a decade.

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<v Speaker 1>Well yeah, and I mean that is in a weird

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<v Speaker 1>and we that's the oup side, you know, because all

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<v Speaker 1>this stuff a way, but it just you know, like

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<v Speaker 1>the you know, the there's massive kind of like debt

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<v Speaker 1>that's hanging off. That's the way that you get read

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<v Speaker 1>all of it and a relatively painless kind of way.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course the problem is it's not painless because

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<v Speaker 1>somebody has to pay for it, and the people pe

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<v Speaker 1>usually evils anyone with wealth at the moment, Yeah, exactly

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<v Speaker 1>downside to financial opresson where we will cover that at

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<v Speaker 1>length over the next couple of years. I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be a significant paign. Oh yeah. And also

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<v Speaker 1>I've I've read something the other day about someone looking

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<v Speaker 1>to target pension points and saying that everyone had a

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<v Speaker 1>fine contribution schemes should be invested in these alternative energy

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<v Speaker 1>schemes or infrastructure schames, and suddenly you're thinking about you know,

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<v Speaker 1>that's classic financial depression where you're getting told we have

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<v Speaker 1>this this pool of capital which is just stuck there.

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<v Speaker 1>That's you know, has to go into these assets, whether

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<v Speaker 1>or not what they deliver good re ton they won't write.

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<v Speaker 1>Whenever you're forced to put your money into things by

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<v Speaker 1>the government, you know what's going to happen next, because

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<v Speaker 1>if it was attract of you wouldn't have to anytime

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<v Speaker 1>you're coerced. It's not attractive in the first place. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of that stuff is coming, Okay, so writing

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<v Speaker 1>this newsletter that we're going to talk about a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of over however many years to come, I hope what

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<v Speaker 1>do people do? Ah, Now there's the question that's why

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<v Speaker 1>masking you're not the other way around. The thing I've

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<v Speaker 1>been writing about a lot recently, and I've been has

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<v Speaker 1>been for a while, it is there is kind of

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<v Speaker 1>UK equities um and obviously it's not the only thing

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<v Speaker 1>that's interesting out there. But one thing I do like

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<v Speaker 1>about the fact that, I mean the UK is cheap

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<v Speaker 1>b it's been detested for so long that is hard

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<v Speaker 1>to remember the last time it was popular. Um and

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<v Speaker 1>also saying without this the other day, it reminds me

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<v Speaker 1>of whenever we used to going about Japan before that

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<v Speaker 1>you know, became appealing again. Don't tell people that go

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<v Speaker 1>on about stuff I don't even know. That's so early

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<v Speaker 1>on in the game. You know, whenever we we discussed

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<v Speaker 1>a long term opportunities, which is what you should be

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<v Speaker 1>looking for as investors. You shouldn't be looking for the

0:08:38.760 --> 0:08:40.400
<v Speaker 1>short term stuff because you know where that leads. That

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<v Speaker 1>leads you to f t X and panicing. How you

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<v Speaker 1>can't get your money at your bank account anyway. That's

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<v Speaker 1>just we will be talking about cryptocurrencies as well, but

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<v Speaker 1>possibly not in a town that everyone will like, but UK.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's nice to see the actually on our door step.

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<v Speaker 1>That is stuff that is incredibly cheap and in any

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<v Speaker 1>valuation measure you want to look at. And I mean

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<v Speaker 1>a roll pale Duncan Lamoent from show does is always

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<v Speaker 1>kind of like yeah we should dunk smart yeah, and

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<v Speaker 1>and kind of underrated, I would say. So it's like,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, he always kind of like puts out this

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<v Speaker 1>study where he talks about the fact that it doesn't,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, whatever sector you look at, even if you're

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<v Speaker 1>comparing directly comparable companies, the UK ones are trading discount

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<v Speaker 1>to the US ones, and often to European ones as well,

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<v Speaker 1>even once you've taken out the tech sector stuff. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>so you're kind of like, well, why is that? And

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<v Speaker 1>I mean no one n actually really seems to know.

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<v Speaker 1>But the obvious answer seems to be the well, global

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<v Speaker 1>capital has kind of shunned the UK, and it's probably

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<v Speaker 1>showned it more since bregsit because you know, the it's

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<v Speaker 1>easy to park it and the this is too hard

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<v Speaker 1>to understand basket because the UK is ultimately quite a

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<v Speaker 1>small chunk of the global equity market by market value.

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<v Speaker 1>And also it's just been much easier to stick all

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<v Speaker 1>your money in fine stocks for a long time, because

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<v Speaker 1>then you've performed the global banks market. Anyway, that's all changing.

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<v Speaker 1>Change needs have a little think, doesn't it, because of

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<v Speaker 1>one thing we've learned over the last year that actually

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<v Speaker 1>we knew already, didn't we It's that evaluations actually matter.

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<v Speaker 1>They actually matter. You know, we were told during the

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<v Speaker 1>Great Growth Bubble that didn't matter what you paid for

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<v Speaker 1>a growth dock because the growth will out run the valuation.

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<v Speaker 1>Everything would be fine. And we knew that wasn't true

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<v Speaker 1>at the time, and it definitely isn't in global capital

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<v Speaker 1>needs to have a good thing. But how it's time

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<v Speaker 1>to start looking at valuations and paying the correct price

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<v Speaker 1>because it's the price you pay that determines the return

0:10:38.840 --> 0:10:42.599
<v Speaker 1>you make. Yeah, with themselves, go back and read the

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<v Speaker 1>Warden Buffett absolutely or my favorite book, by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>The Money Game, published in the sixties, uh pseudonym Adam Smith.

0:10:50.800 --> 0:10:53.640
<v Speaker 1>Everyone should go get it. Absolutely brilliant. And the the

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<v Speaker 1>chapter on growth stocks, which doesn't call growth stocks, you

0:10:56.760 --> 0:11:00.640
<v Speaker 1>calls performance stocks, is I mean totally brilliant. Gives you

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<v Speaker 1>a total roadmap for what happened during the last growth

0:11:04.400 --> 0:11:07.079
<v Speaker 1>bubble that is just ending and reminds you of what

0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:09.320
<v Speaker 1>may happen next because it's not over yet. This past

0:11:09.920 --> 0:11:14.520
<v Speaker 1>performance stocks performance and Fidelity was the Baily Gifford of

0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:18.040
<v Speaker 1>the day. Well, I mean the good news for Billy

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<v Speaker 1>Gift for this Fidelity is still going stocks. That is true.

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<v Speaker 1>See there's a silver lining for everybody. Right. Podcast listeners,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you very much for listening to us talk about

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<v Speaker 1>what we are going to talk about, and these are

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<v Speaker 1>all things we will start talking about from December. John

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<v Speaker 1>will be here relatively frequently and there will also be

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<v Speaker 1>a very interesting, very very interesting guests on an almost

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<v Speaker 1>weekly dasis um and we very much look forward to

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<v Speaker 1>talking to you then, Jeff help the guest less potential

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<v Speaker 1>guest less that it sounds really exciting. I'm looking forward

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<v Speaker 1>to good Thanks John, Thanks Smith, Thank you so much

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<v Speaker 1>for listening to this first introduction to Marin Talks Money.

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<v Speaker 1>Please do be sure to subscribe to the podcast at

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<v Speaker 1>your podcast provider of choice. H