WEBVTT - Dr .Jeff Ross Is Going From Bearish To Bullish, Here Is Why 0:00:00.760 --> 0:00:03.240 Everyone, Welcome back to another episode of The Mark Moss Show, 0:00:03.240 --> 0:00:06.440 where we talk about the decentralized revolution, talking about the 0:00:06.480 --> 0:00:09.559 way the world is changing rapidly before our eyes. We're 0:00:09.600 --> 0:00:12.800 looking at through the lens of politics, finance, and technology 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:16.480 to understand um, like I said, have better context of 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:18.079 what's going on in the world today. Of course, I 0:00:18.160 --> 0:00:20.400 try to bring to you some education to help change 0:00:20.440 --> 0:00:22.600 the way you think. I bring the latest breaking news 0:00:22.760 --> 0:00:26.840 and some very smart and interesting guests. You don't have 0:00:26.880 --> 0:00:28.840 to listen to me all the time. And I am 0:00:28.880 --> 0:00:31.479 excited to announce I'm in the studio today with Dr 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:36.000 Jeff Ross. He's the He's the founder of val Shire Cap. 0:00:36.360 --> 0:00:38.880 You can find him on Twitter at val Shire Cap. 0:00:38.960 --> 0:00:42.320 That's Veil veil Shire Cab if you want to figure 0:00:42.320 --> 0:00:44.080 out how to spell it anyway, Jeff, thanks so much 0:00:44.120 --> 0:00:46.159 for joining me today, Mark, thanks for having me. I'm 0:00:46.200 --> 0:00:50.400 really excited to be here. Yeah. Um so if everyone listening. UM. 0:00:50.440 --> 0:00:53.640 At the Bitcoin conference Bitcoin two in Miami, Jeff and 0:00:53.720 --> 0:00:57.920 I and UH and Jeff Booth and Preston Pitchbrow on 0:00:57.920 --> 0:01:00.400 a panel that was that was super cool and I 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:01.800 was hoping to try to get the four of us 0:01:01.800 --> 0:01:04.280 back together again, but but then things kind of fell 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:07.200 off the hinges. But anyway, here we are so excited 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:10.160 to have you back. Yeah, thanks so much. That was 0:01:10.200 --> 0:01:11.520 a lot of fun. It would be fun to do 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:14.119 a group with those guys again. Yeah, Yeah, I'm gonna 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:15.920 I'm gonna try to dust that back off and pick 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:17.679 it back up. My schedule got kind of crazy and 0:01:17.680 --> 0:01:19.720 I had to drop the ball on that, and Preston's 0:01:19.720 --> 0:01:23.160 schedule is pretty pretty pretty tough as well. But um, 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:29.760 you know, I've been making content since two eighteen, and 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:34.560 I remember Man two two nineteen, Bear Market h Man 0:01:34.600 --> 0:01:36.920 by two thousand nineteen, and it just was not much 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:40.119 to talk about. But that's not the problem we have today. 0:01:40.160 --> 0:01:42.720 There's like a never ending amount of stuff to talk about, 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:44.840 and you're a great person to talk about it with. 0:01:44.959 --> 0:01:47.039 So let's dig into some topics here. I kind of 0:01:47.040 --> 0:01:51.480 want to hit on the very easy, simple topics of like, 0:01:51.520 --> 0:01:56.920 you know, the economy, g d P recession, things like that. Um, 0:01:57.040 --> 0:01:59.960 if we have time, we'll talk about this financial repres 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:02.440 scition and maybe then we'll get into some assets like 0:02:02.480 --> 0:02:06.080 real estate and bitcoin things like that. Um, before we were, 0:02:06.120 --> 0:02:08.080 before we jumped on, we were looking at this chart 0:02:08.480 --> 0:02:11.079 of the Nasdaq, which will come back to in a minute. 0:02:11.360 --> 0:02:14.239 We'll table that for everybody listening. But um, this week 0:02:14.360 --> 0:02:16.280 was a pretty big week where we had two big 0:02:16.320 --> 0:02:19.680 announcements that came out. So we saw the Federal Reserve 0:02:19.800 --> 0:02:23.359 the FMOC meeting came out and they raised rates again. Um, 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:25.440 we saw the markets were betting that it would be 0:02:25.480 --> 0:02:27.600 a point seven five, some people thought would be one point. 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:30.200 Probably didn't matter either way, but it came out at 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:33.240 the point seven five, and uh, the markets seemed to 0:02:33.240 --> 0:02:35.320 respond favorably to that. And then the g d P 0:02:35.480 --> 0:02:38.720 print came out, which was really bad, but it wasn't 0:02:38.760 --> 0:02:42.000 as bad as the Fed now had predicted it to be. 0:02:42.639 --> 0:02:45.639 And it seems like the markets really like this news. 0:02:45.680 --> 0:02:48.919 What do you what do you make of all that? Well, 0:02:48.919 --> 0:02:51.440 those are great questions. It's it's so hard to discern, 0:02:51.639 --> 0:02:53.880 you know, what what is going on with the market 0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:56.440 because it's so emotional and and uh, there are just 0:02:56.480 --> 0:02:58.680 so many moving parts right now. So as as most 0:02:58.720 --> 0:03:01.000 people probably know, if you if anyone's heard me before, 0:03:01.040 --> 0:03:03.720 I've been pretty barished. I've been bearished since January and 0:03:04.000 --> 0:03:07.040 I've only gotten Yeah, I've only gotten increasingly, beariss. I'm 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:08.720 one of those annoying guys that nobody likes to be 0:03:08.720 --> 0:03:11.920 around because I bring the mood down of the room. 0:03:11.960 --> 0:03:14.880 You know, why did the Fed act? Why did the 0:03:14.880 --> 0:03:17.919 market act that way to the Fed's announcement. I think 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:21.080 part of it is because of the verbiage where Powell 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:24.919 said they basically moved from a comminative to sort of 0:03:25.400 --> 0:03:28.880 uh neutral, uh, you know, a neutral rate right now 0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:31.600 and so and and you know, we were a combinative. 0:03:31.680 --> 0:03:35.640 But people were expecting very hawkish um. They're concerned that 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:38.000 the Fed is going to continue to have to tighten 0:03:38.520 --> 0:03:42.120 for quite a while if inflation remains sticky high. I 0:03:42.160 --> 0:03:44.880 think what's happening is the market is starting to wonder 0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:48.440 out loud if we may have peaked, if inflation may 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:51.840 have peaked, and maybe the FED won't have to continue 0:03:51.880 --> 0:03:54.760 to be as aggressive as they've been talking about. I'll 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:56.480 tell you the other thing I look at, Mark, is 0:03:56.560 --> 0:03:59.520 what what are the treasury yields doing? So what are 0:03:59.560 --> 0:04:03.280 the two ten year treasury yields doing? Both of those 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:05.840 are um under. I think that the ten year the 0:04:05.880 --> 0:04:07.960 last time I looked at about two point six seven 0:04:08.040 --> 0:04:09.800 or so, and the two year was like two point 0:04:09.840 --> 0:04:14.440 eight generally, when the FED fund rate gets to that 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:16.919 level and those levels start to drop, so they they 0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:18.640 they've been up right. The ten year got up to 0:04:18.720 --> 0:04:20.480 like three point to three point three is and has 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:24.960 started coming down substantially. Um. When that gets to about 0:04:24.960 --> 0:04:27.520 where the level of the FED fund rate is, that 0:04:27.560 --> 0:04:30.880 basically forces the Fed's hand. It forces them to stop, 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:33.440 to take a break, take a breather, and then to 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:36.960 then switch over to getting dubish again, to get accommodative again. 0:04:37.360 --> 0:04:39.600 Uh So, I think the market is starting to sniff 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:41.839 all of those different things out. And even though I 0:04:41.839 --> 0:04:45.000 think the economy looks absolutely horrendous right now, and even 0:04:45.040 --> 0:04:46.960 though I think the numbers are going to get worse 0:04:47.040 --> 0:04:50.960 before they get better, um, I'm I'm wondering if we're 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:53.760 possibly going from bad to less bad, and the you know, 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:57.080 the risk assets are sniffing that out already. The when 0:04:57.120 --> 0:05:00.440 you say, um, when you say they go to neutral, 0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:02.880 what do you mean by that? What do you think 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:05.800 they mean by that? That's a nebulous term it and 0:05:05.839 --> 0:05:09.200 they never really answer it very clearly. They basically talk 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:12.400 about there's this sort of nebulous natural rate that nobody 0:05:12.400 --> 0:05:15.200 can really see. But if we're below that, we're being 0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:18.800 a commendative. If we're above that, we're being restrictive on 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:21.880 the economy. And there's this little sweet spot where they are. 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:24.720 It always happens to be right around where the short 0:05:24.800 --> 0:05:26.800 term interest rates are. I would say the free markets 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:29.600 are better at figuring what that is. So what are 0:05:29.640 --> 0:05:31.880 short term interest rates doing? The right around kind of 0:05:31.880 --> 0:05:34.560 two point seven five to three percent right now? And 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:36.640 so I think the Fed is sort of going off 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:38.760 of that and saying, when we're in that ballpark, we're 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:41.880 basically at a neutral rate. We're not restricting the economy, 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:45.240 but we're not being a commodative as well. Another thing 0:05:45.279 --> 0:05:47.640 that I saw that they said is that they were 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:52.040 going to be more data driven, and that to me, 0:05:52.760 --> 0:05:54.400 I love at your opinion, but to me, I was 0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:56.720 afraid that the Fed gets very dug into the positions. 0:05:56.760 --> 0:05:58.720 They want to project way out in front what they're 0:05:58.720 --> 0:06:00.520 gonna do. They don't want to sup as the market. 0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:02.760 So they told us in November they're gonna start raising rates, 0:06:02.760 --> 0:06:04.560 and it didn't happen for months later. They're gonna raise 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:06.320 for this. They had this whole projection all the way 0:06:06.360 --> 0:06:10.599 through UM and I was afraid they would be dug 0:06:10.640 --> 0:06:12.479 into that, like they were dug into their let it 0:06:12.560 --> 0:06:15.280 run hot theory, and even when things were crashing, they 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:17.520 were going to stick with that. But when they when 0:06:17.520 --> 0:06:20.240 they said they would be more data driven, then it 0:06:20.279 --> 0:06:23.200 made me think, well, maybe they do sense to the 0:06:23.200 --> 0:06:25.240 point you said that markets are seeing that cp I 0:06:25.320 --> 0:06:28.320 might come down, and uh, if the markets are are 0:06:28.440 --> 0:06:31.040 crashing and CPI is coming down, maybe they would respond 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:33.560 to the data as opposed to being stuck in their 0:06:33.600 --> 0:06:36.280 in their dug in their position. I think so. It's 0:06:36.400 --> 0:06:38.320 and and you know, I went back and listened to 0:06:38.360 --> 0:06:40.760 that part of it because I had missed that before. 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:43.119 And I think that's significant. In the last few meetings 0:06:43.160 --> 0:06:44.840 they were saying, we are going to be very hawkish. 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:47.520 We're probably gonna raise you know, point five point seven five, 0:06:48.000 --> 0:06:50.479 you know, possibly even one is on the table. This time, 0:06:50.480 --> 0:06:52.760 they didn't mention anything like that. They didn't talk about 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:56.720 actual rates that they're going to raise. They talked about possibilities. 0:06:56.920 --> 0:06:59.640 But yeah, they talked about being data dependent. And to me, again, 0:06:59.680 --> 0:07:01.800 it's it's what the bond markets are telling them. They're 0:07:01.839 --> 0:07:04.920 looking at the Treasury yields falling. That's usually what happens 0:07:04.920 --> 0:07:06.960 as we head into our session, right, people buy safe 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:11.240 haven assets, they buy treasuries, so price goes up, yields drop, uh, 0:07:11.280 --> 0:07:13.560 and then that forces the hand of the Fed on 0:07:13.600 --> 0:07:16.200 the short end of the curve. So I think I 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:17.920 think that maybe the sign I think that's what they're 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:19.720 watching for. And we're not gonna know. We're gonna see 0:07:19.720 --> 0:07:22.040 the CPI print come out. I think August tenth or something. 0:07:22.040 --> 0:07:23.840 We'll see the July cp I print, and then we'll 0:07:24.000 --> 0:07:27.240 see another print in September um and then the Fed 0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:30.080 will meet again. So it's possible that they're done raising 0:07:30.160 --> 0:07:32.000 rates or may they may try one more time, but 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:34.400 I think the market will reject them pretty quickly if 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:38.040 they try to do that. Do you think the CPI 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:40.480 prints will come down? So when we talk about CPI prints, 0:07:40.480 --> 0:07:42.320 we're talking about the number. So we came up with 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:44.880 the latest number was nine point one, which was higher 0:07:44.880 --> 0:07:48.080 than whatever eight point six were before that, And so, um, 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:50.400 do you think that that CPI print you think that 0:07:50.480 --> 0:07:52.680 inflation will come down? I mean, we did see gasoline 0:07:52.680 --> 0:07:56.360 prices come down, but rents make up a huge chunk 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:58.600 of that basket. They don't move very fast. I mean, 0:07:58.680 --> 0:08:00.480 what do you think the odds of that really coming 0:08:00.480 --> 0:08:03.360 down are I personally do. I do think nine point 0:08:03.440 --> 0:08:05.560 one was probably the peak, although to be very clear, 0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:07.160 I've been wrong before. I thought we were going to 0:08:07.240 --> 0:08:09.080 peak sooner than this. I thought eight and a half 0:08:09.200 --> 0:08:12.920 was the peak before. Um so it has been sticky high. Um. 0:08:12.960 --> 0:08:16.040 But yeah, oil has come down substantially about or so on. 0:08:16.120 --> 0:08:19.320 That drives a lot of the factors and c P I. Um. Yeah, 0:08:19.360 --> 0:08:21.040 rents are kind of coming up, but those are sort 0:08:21.040 --> 0:08:23.880 of lagging indicators anyways. Real estate tends to leg what 0:08:23.920 --> 0:08:26.240 the equity markets do and what bitcoin does and things 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:30.280 like that. Um Uh. In one thing I've been reading 0:08:30.320 --> 0:08:34.720 this week, inventories in businesses have been building significantly as well, 0:08:34.800 --> 0:08:36.960 and so when you have inventories get built up, what 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:39.680 happens is there's people just can't afford to buy things. Walmart, 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:42.440 the CEO was talking about this. Food and gas prices 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:44.320 are so high that they just can't buy the clothes 0:08:44.320 --> 0:08:47.120 off the shelves anymore. So nobody wants these things that 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:49.320 will help to drive down prices as well. So I'm 0:08:49.360 --> 0:08:52.280 I think we have peaked that's my guess. Yeah, I 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:54.679 want to dig more into that specifically, because I think 0:08:54.720 --> 0:08:57.800 there's things the FED really can't affect that are driving CPI, 0:08:57.960 --> 0:08:59.800 and I think maybe over the decade we might be 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:02.040 some of the lowest. We'll see. We'll talk more about that. 0:09:02.080 --> 0:09:05.360 I want to talk more about a potential recession. Have 0:09:05.480 --> 0:09:07.240 they say that I talk about this chart that you 0:09:07.280 --> 0:09:09.240 and I looked at that maybe is telling us things 0:09:09.240 --> 0:09:11.920 that we didn't think about before. We'll talk about real estate, 0:09:11.960 --> 0:09:14.400 we'll talk about bitcoin and more. Um, you're listening to 0:09:14.440 --> 0:09:18.000 the Mark Mos Show. We're talking about the decentralized Revolution. 0:09:18.040 --> 0:09:20.520 I'm in the studio with Dr Jeff Ross, the founder 0:09:20.880 --> 0:09:22.839 of val Shire Cap. You can find him on Twitter 0:09:23.080 --> 0:09:24.800 at val Shire Cap. And if you're not following me 0:09:24.800 --> 0:09:27.480 on Twitter, you should. It's just at number one, Mark Moss. 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:29.199 We've got a lot more to cover if you want 0:09:29.200 --> 0:09:31.480 to learn how to navigate this properly, So don't go away, 0:09:31.520 --> 0:09:33.679 We'll be right back. All right, Welcome back. You are 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:36.160 listening to the Mark Mos Show. We are talking about 0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:39.200 the decentralized revolution each and every week, and this week 0:09:39.280 --> 0:09:41.680 I am in the studio with Dr Jeff Ross. He 0:09:41.800 --> 0:09:44.160 is the founder of al Shire Cap. You can find 0:09:44.200 --> 0:09:46.640 him on Twitter at val Shire Cap. We gotta do 0:09:46.640 --> 0:09:50.199 a panel together at the Bitcoin Conference two in Miami 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:52.480 this year was really cool and so we're digging back 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:55.200 into this macro theme. We just kind of talked about 0:09:55.240 --> 0:09:57.720 what the Fed did this week with the raising of 0:09:57.760 --> 0:10:00.880 the rates by point seven five, and um, we didn't 0:10:00.880 --> 0:10:03.760 talk about the g d P print. So, um, we 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:09.079 also saw that and it looked like the White House 0:10:09.120 --> 0:10:12.640 came out in advance of the numbers and started telling 0:10:12.720 --> 0:10:16.199 us what you see isn't real, what you think isn't real. Uh, 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:19.079 And they wanted to change the technical definition of of 0:10:19.080 --> 0:10:23.800 of a recession to negative quarters of growth. So that 0:10:23.880 --> 0:10:27.200 was pretty weird. I think, Um, there's some truth to that, 0:10:27.240 --> 0:10:30.000 and we can dig into that if you want. But then, um, 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:32.400 the Fed now had been predicting i think a negative 0:10:32.440 --> 0:10:34.959 one point six and then the GDP print came out 0:10:35.000 --> 0:10:38.480 a point negative point nine and so it was bad 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:42.560 but but better. What's your take on that? Well, it 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:45.400 was basically as expected. I think most people that I 0:10:45.440 --> 0:10:48.480 was seeing estimates anywhere from positive like half a point 0:10:48.559 --> 0:10:50.840 positive all the way down to you know, about negative 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:52.920 one and a half or so. UM, So I think 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:55.280 it just sort of fell within range. I think the um, 0:10:55.640 --> 0:10:57.800 the powers that be knew that it was going to 0:10:57.880 --> 0:10:59.680 come out negative. So that's why they came out with 0:10:59.720 --> 0:11:02.079 this and paign this week. Um. You know that maybe 0:11:02.160 --> 0:11:05.439 the technical, technical definition, but that's not what a recession 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:08.280 really is. Uh. There's this group called the n b R. 0:11:08.320 --> 0:11:11.280 I think it's the National Bureau of Economic Researches, which 0:11:11.320 --> 0:11:13.440 is a group of academics who they they've had the 0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:17.240 privilege of uh declaring an official recession I think since 0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:20.920 the late seventies. Now. The irony of them is they 0:11:20.920 --> 0:11:23.880 are the backward ist of backward looking data people. So 0:11:23.960 --> 0:11:26.560 they usually come about a year later and say, yeah, 0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:28.679 it turns out we were in a recession starting about 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:30.960 a year ago. So I expect the same thing to 0:11:31.000 --> 0:11:33.760 happen this time as well. I get Yellin's point, and 0:11:33.800 --> 0:11:36.959 I get Powell's point. They're talking about unemployment being very, 0:11:37.080 --> 0:11:39.880 very low. It's they're they're absolutely right, but you know what, 0:11:40.000 --> 0:11:43.960 that's legging legging data again. And so as the economy turns, 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:48.320 as companies start to suffer, as earnings start to decline, Uh, 0:11:48.400 --> 0:11:52.440 we're already seeing small businesses, which are the most sensitive companies. UM. 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:55.640 I think it's forty five percent of small businesses are 0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:59.000 already on hiring freezes as of last week. Uh, and 0:11:59.120 --> 0:12:02.840 some somewhere around five percent are actually letting go of 0:12:02.840 --> 0:12:06.160 employees already, so we should see unemployment start to rise. 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:09.120 And worse than that, I think. I think it's thirty 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:13.280 five percent of small businesses aren't aren't current with their rent, 0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:16.319 and I think it's sixty five percent of businesses in 0:12:16.360 --> 0:12:19.440 the transportation sector are not current on their rent. They 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:21.959 can't even make their payments. Um. Of course, the the 0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:26.200 in the consumer sentiment indexes are horrible. Manufacturing sentiment and 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:29.400 it's all the sentiments are horrible. Um. I think, uh 0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:33.160 think that they'll have to shut their business down within 0:12:33.200 --> 0:12:35.120 the next twelve months. So the sentiments are really bad. 0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:37.640 But they did they did, so the White House came 0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:40.000 out and said, hey, look, that's that's not the technical definition. 0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:42.720 We also have to look at to your point, employment, 0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:45.440 the economy, other factors. But to the point that you 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:49.600 made about unemployment being historically low or whatever, I think 0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:52.600 that's another one of the CP lie you know, kind 0:12:52.600 --> 0:12:56.280 of made up statistics, because yes, maybe It's true the 0:12:56.360 --> 0:12:59.200 economy added four thousand jobs, but if you look at 0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:01.160 over a core or really we didn't add that any 0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:03.640 because of what we had lost before. But more importantly, 0:13:03.760 --> 0:13:09.520 the labor participation rate, So the participation rate is so low, 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:13.040 So the employment rate only calculates the amount of people 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:15.559 that have jobs that are looking for jobs, but doesn't 0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:19.120 take all those people into consideration. And they've also lowered 0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:21.439 it to people who have less than full time employment. 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:23.640 And I think there's some people that probably have full 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:25.640 time jobs and part time jobs. So I think that 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:28.880 really excused the numbers. So while that one data point 0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:31.480 looks okay, if you look at it through multiple data points, 0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:34.040 I don't think that you're bear. So I don't have 0:13:34.040 --> 0:13:37.720 to tell you, right, the numbers aren't really that good exactly. 0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:40.439 I couldn't agree more. And I think they're being extremely 0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:43.360 disingenuous when they talk about these kind of status as 0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:46.319 though you know, we're we're looking healthy, the economy is strong. 0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:48.520 It's just not true, especially if you're a person living 0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:50.600 on the margin. Right, if you're in the lower income 0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:53.440 mechelons of the U s um not only are you 0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:56.440 getting destroyed on the right hand, by high prices, high 0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:59.360 grocery prices, high gasoline prices. You may not even be 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:01.080 able to afford it with one job, so you're on 0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:03.320 your second job as well. That on the other hand, 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:05.440 you're at the highest risk of getting fired in the 0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:07.640 next couple of months too, and so it just gets 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:11.760 harder and harder for those kind of people. Yeah. Um, 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:15.880 now about the inflation peaked, I mean, you know, we 0:14:15.920 --> 0:14:17.920 can all sit here and guests and speculate on that. 0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:21.200 I think there's a lot of things that are driving inflation. 0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:23.240 So there's I mean, they try to they try to 0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:27.120 classify with cost push and demand pull, right, and so 0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:30.360 the cost push is definitely going up. Costs are going up. 0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:32.920 Gas prices are so high that people can't afford to 0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:34.520 commute any more. So I'll quit my job and I'll 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:36.920 just stay home and collect unemployment. Now the employer has 0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:39.720 to pay people more to to work that job, and 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:42.600 so that's cost pushing up. Of course, supply chains and 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:45.040 the wars and blah blah blah blah blah. But then 0:14:45.080 --> 0:14:48.800 on the demand poll, I don't know what your take 0:14:48.880 --> 0:14:54.480 on this. Is demand pull really categorized as like um one, 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:57.680 they printed so much more money there's excess demand or 0:14:57.760 --> 0:14:59.920 is it where demand pull is more of a phenomenon 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:02.200 on where people think that refrigerators is gonna be more 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:04.840 expensive in the future, so I should buy that refrigerator today, 0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:06.440 or the home is gonna be more expensive, I should 0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:07.720 buy the home today, And so I don't know if 0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:10.880 we're there yet. But either way, I don't see how 0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:13.880 the FEDS policies, I mean, and I guess if they 0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:16.400 completely crushed demand, which I think is what they're trying 0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:19.480 to do, just shut down make everybody feel poor. I 0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:21.720 don't know if they can really affect inflation that much. 0:15:23.440 --> 0:15:25.200 I hear you, I hear you. But I think that's 0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:27.240 what they're trying to do. Whether or not they'll succeed, 0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:29.400 it remains to be seen. I think what they're trying 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:32.640 to do is to crush demand exactly, and so they 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:35.000 so as more people on that you know, again at 0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:36.920 the people on the in the lower echelons of the 0:15:36.960 --> 0:15:40.680 income strata, um as they get hit, as they lose 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:42.920 their jobs, um, they're not. They're not going to be 0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:44.960 able to afford things like they were, even like that's 0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:47.080 what came out with the Walmart results, right, the CEO 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:49.920 was talking about how people they have to spend more 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:53.240 of their paycheck on um gas and on food, so 0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:55.240 they just can't buy the clothes anymore. So now we're 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:58.720 seeing inventories build up at lots of these stores. Um. 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:01.760 As the inventories build up, people just they the supply 0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:04.040 has become more and more worthless because people just don't 0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:06.320 want these clothes and so so the prices that will 0:16:06.400 --> 0:16:08.720 drive prices down. The other effect, by the way, that's 0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:12.520 related to demand destruction, as real estate comes down, as 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:15.640 equities come down, the wealth effect of the middle and 0:16:15.720 --> 0:16:17.920 upper classes, the people who own stocks, who own a 0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:20.880 lot of these assets, we're seeing, uh, you know, those 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:25.320 numbers come down significantly. People are down depending on what 0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:27.400 your what your thing is. If you're an ARC investor, 0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:31.320 you're down fifty um. So they just don't have the ability, 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:33.480 that the room to buy so many things too. So 0:16:33.520 --> 0:16:35.400 I think that can help drive down prices. But yeah, 0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:37.760 it's anybody's guess. It's so hard to read this system 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:40.160 right now and what's going to happen. I had another 0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:43.200 I had another Jeff on this week, and Jeff Snyder, 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:46.680 and uh, you know, he says that the FEDS powerless, 0:16:46.720 --> 0:16:49.480 and I'll release that whole talk the Feds powerless and 0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:51.920 the euro dollar market so big and they can't affect them, 0:16:51.920 --> 0:16:54.120 blah blah blah. Um. He likes to get into the 0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:56.560 technical definitions, and this is where him and I, you know, 0:16:56.640 --> 0:16:59.200 jockey back and forth a little bit, where Um, he 0:16:59.240 --> 0:17:01.320 doesn't really believe in the wealth effect or the reverse 0:17:01.360 --> 0:17:03.840 wealth effect, and I'm just like, I mean, I don't 0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:06.320 have empirical data to show you, but like I wasn't. 0:17:06.520 --> 0:17:08.200 I'm never gonna sell my bitcoin, I'm not going to 0:17:08.280 --> 0:17:10.359 sell my house, but I still feel less wealthy and 0:17:10.400 --> 0:17:13.600 I'm second guessing my vacations. I think the economy is 0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:15.239 gonna be worse than the future and I might want 0:17:15.280 --> 0:17:17.280 to hold on my money today. Like it's affecting me, 0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:20.720 it's affecting everybody I know. Like, so I agree with 0:17:20.760 --> 0:17:23.000 you on the on the wealth effect. It's it's it's real. 0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:25.439 I don't know how to quantify it, I guess is 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:29.119 the problem. But um, I made a video two weeks 0:17:29.160 --> 0:17:35.080 ago um saying does this mark the bottom? And I 0:17:35.119 --> 0:17:37.359 gave a bunch of data points as to why. And 0:17:37.400 --> 0:17:40.399 it was really partly triggered by that last CPI print 0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:42.800 that had come out. I thought that nine point one 0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:44.720 was a shock and it was going to change everything, 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:46.320 and I thought maybe that was gonna be the bottom. 0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:48.040 So I wanna I want to talk to you some 0:17:48.080 --> 0:17:50.680 of those data points and then let's speculate on where 0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:54.240 we think that the risk on assets the NASDAC, Bitcoin, etcetera. 0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:56.880 Are gonna go. Um, and we'll talk about that chart 0:17:56.920 --> 0:17:58.919 we looked at before. UM. If you're just tuning in, 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:00.720 you're listening to the Mark Mos Show. We're talking about 0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:04.760 the decentralized revolution through the lens of politics, finance and technology. 0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:07.119 I'm in the studio with Dr Jeff Rossi is the 0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:09.879 founder of val Shire Cap. You can find them on 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:11.760 Twitter at val Shire Cap im on Twitter at one 0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:14.200 Mark Moss. We've got a lot more to cover talking 0:18:14.200 --> 0:18:16.080 about the bottom. Don't go away, We'll be right back, 0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:19.000 all right, Welcome back. If you're just tuning in, you're 0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:21.080 listening to the Mark Mos Show. We're talking about the 0:18:21.119 --> 0:18:24.919 decentralized revolution, each and every week, explaining to you the 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:27.399 madness of the world, how we got here, what's going on, 0:18:27.520 --> 0:18:30.879 more importantly, where we are going. UM. I'm in the 0:18:30.920 --> 0:18:33.760 studio with Dr Jeff Ross. He is the founder of 0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:37.520 val Shire Cap and uh, we are talking about a 0:18:37.520 --> 0:18:40.720 lot of the market movements that happened this week, where 0:18:40.720 --> 0:18:43.280 we're at and where we're going. Now. If you've missed 0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:45.000