1 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:03,240 Speaker 1: Everyone, Welcome back to another episode of The Mark Moss Show, 2 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:06,440 Speaker 1: where we talk about the decentralized revolution, talking about the 3 00:00:06,480 --> 00:00:09,559 Speaker 1: way the world is changing rapidly before our eyes. We're 4 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: looking at through the lens of politics, finance, and technology 5 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:16,480 Speaker 1: to understand um, like I said, have better context of 6 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:18,079 Speaker 1: what's going on in the world today. Of course, I 7 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 1: try to bring to you some education to help change 8 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:22,600 Speaker 1: the way you think. I bring the latest breaking news 9 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: and some very smart and interesting guests. You don't have 10 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 1: to listen to me all the time. And I am 11 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:31,479 Speaker 1: excited to announce I'm in the studio today with Dr 12 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: Jeff Ross. He's the He's the founder of val Shire Cap. 13 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:38,880 Speaker 1: You can find him on Twitter at val Shire Cap. 14 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:42,320 Speaker 1: That's Veil veil Shire Cab if you want to figure 15 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: out how to spell it anyway, Jeff, thanks so much 16 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:46,159 Speaker 1: for joining me today, Mark, thanks for having me. I'm 17 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: really excited to be here. Yeah. Um so if everyone listening. UM. 18 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: At the Bitcoin conference Bitcoin two in Miami, Jeff and 19 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 1: I and UH and Jeff Booth and Preston Pitchbrow on 20 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 1: a panel that was that was super cool and I 21 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: was hoping to try to get the four of us 22 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 1: back together again, but but then things kind of fell 23 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 1: off the hinges. But anyway, here we are so excited 24 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:10,160 Speaker 1: to have you back. Yeah, thanks so much. That was 25 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 1: a lot of fun. It would be fun to do 26 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:14,119 Speaker 1: a group with those guys again. Yeah, Yeah, I'm gonna 27 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 1: I'm gonna try to dust that back off and pick 28 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:17,679 Speaker 1: it back up. My schedule got kind of crazy and 29 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 1: I had to drop the ball on that, and Preston's 30 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 1: schedule is pretty pretty pretty tough as well. But um, 31 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 1: you know, I've been making content since two eighteen, and 32 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 1: I remember Man two two nineteen, Bear Market h Man 33 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 1: by two thousand nineteen, and it just was not much 34 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:40,119 Speaker 1: to talk about. But that's not the problem we have today. 35 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 1: There's like a never ending amount of stuff to talk about, 36 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 1: and you're a great person to talk about it with. 37 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:47,039 Speaker 1: So let's dig into some topics here. I kind of 38 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 1: want to hit on the very easy, simple topics of like, 39 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 1: you know, the economy, g d P recession, things like that. Um, 40 00:01:57,040 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 1: if we have time, we'll talk about this financial repres 41 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 1: scition and maybe then we'll get into some assets like 42 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 1: real estate and bitcoin things like that. Um, before we were, 43 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 1: before we jumped on, we were looking at this chart 44 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:11,079 Speaker 1: of the Nasdaq, which will come back to in a minute. 45 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:14,239 Speaker 1: We'll table that for everybody listening. But um, this week 46 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 1: was a pretty big week where we had two big 47 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:19,680 Speaker 1: announcements that came out. So we saw the Federal Reserve 48 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:23,359 Speaker 1: the FMOC meeting came out and they raised rates again. Um, 49 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 1: we saw the markets were betting that it would be 50 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 1: a point seven five, some people thought would be one point. 51 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 1: Probably didn't matter either way, but it came out at 52 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:33,240 Speaker 1: the point seven five, and uh, the markets seemed to 53 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 1: respond favorably to that. And then the g d P 54 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 1: print came out, which was really bad, but it wasn't 55 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 1: as bad as the Fed now had predicted it to be. 56 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:45,639 Speaker 1: And it seems like the markets really like this news. 57 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:48,919 Speaker 1: What do you what do you make of all that? Well, 58 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 1: those are great questions. It's it's so hard to discern, 59 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 1: you know, what what is going on with the market 60 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 1: because it's so emotional and and uh, there are just 61 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 1: so many moving parts right now. So as as most 62 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 1: people probably know, if you if anyone's heard me before, 63 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 1: I've been pretty barished. I've been bearished since January and 64 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 1: I've only gotten Yeah, I've only gotten increasingly, beariss. I'm 65 00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: one of those annoying guys that nobody likes to be 66 00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:11,920 Speaker 1: around because I bring the mood down of the room. 67 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 1: You know, why did the Fed act? Why did the 68 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:17,919 Speaker 1: market act that way to the Fed's announcement. I think 69 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 1: part of it is because of the verbiage where Powell 70 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:24,919 Speaker 1: said they basically moved from a comminative to sort of 71 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 1: uh neutral, uh, you know, a neutral rate right now 72 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 1: and so and and you know, we were a combinative. 73 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 1: But people were expecting very hawkish um. They're concerned that 74 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 1: the Fed is going to continue to have to tighten 75 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 1: for quite a while if inflation remains sticky high. I 76 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 1: think what's happening is the market is starting to wonder 77 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 1: out loud if we may have peaked, if inflation may 78 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 1: have peaked, and maybe the FED won't have to continue 79 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 1: to be as aggressive as they've been talking about. I'll 80 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 1: tell you the other thing I look at, Mark, is 81 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: what what are the treasury yields doing? So what are 82 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 1: the two ten year treasury yields doing? Both of those 83 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 1: are um under. I think that the ten year the 84 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 1: last time I looked at about two point six seven 85 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 1: or so, and the two year was like two point 86 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 1: eight generally, when the FED fund rate gets to that 87 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:16,919 Speaker 1: level and those levels start to drop, so they they 88 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 1: they've been up right. The ten year got up to 89 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:20,480 Speaker 1: like three point to three point three is and has 90 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 1: started coming down substantially. Um. When that gets to about 91 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 1: where the level of the FED fund rate is, that 92 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 1: basically forces the Fed's hand. It forces them to stop, 93 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 1: to take a break, take a breather, and then to 94 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: then switch over to getting dubish again, to get accommodative again. 95 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:39,600 Speaker 1: Uh So, I think the market is starting to sniff 96 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:41,839 Speaker 1: all of those different things out. And even though I 97 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 1: think the economy looks absolutely horrendous right now, and even 98 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 1: though I think the numbers are going to get worse 99 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 1: before they get better, um, I'm I'm wondering if we're 100 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 1: possibly going from bad to less bad, and the you know, 101 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 1: the risk assets are sniffing that out already. The when 102 00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 1: you say, um, when you say they go to neutral, 103 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 1: what do you mean by that? What do you think 104 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 1: they mean by that? That's a nebulous term it and 105 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 1: they never really answer it very clearly. They basically talk 106 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: about there's this sort of nebulous natural rate that nobody 107 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 1: can really see. But if we're below that, we're being 108 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:18,800 Speaker 1: a commendative. If we're above that, we're being restrictive on 109 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 1: the economy. And there's this little sweet spot where they are. 110 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,720 Speaker 1: It always happens to be right around where the short 111 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 1: term interest rates are. I would say the free markets 112 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:29,600 Speaker 1: are better at figuring what that is. So what are 113 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:31,880 Speaker 1: short term interest rates doing? The right around kind of 114 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 1: two point seven five to three percent right now? And 115 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 1: so I think the Fed is sort of going off 116 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 1: of that and saying, when we're in that ballpark, we're 117 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 1: basically at a neutral rate. We're not restricting the economy, 118 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 1: but we're not being a commodative as well. Another thing 119 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 1: that I saw that they said is that they were 120 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:52,040 Speaker 1: going to be more data driven, and that to me, 121 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: I love at your opinion, but to me, I was 122 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:56,720 Speaker 1: afraid that the Fed gets very dug into the positions. 123 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:58,720 Speaker 1: They want to project way out in front what they're 124 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 1: gonna do. They don't want to sup as the market. 125 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 1: So they told us in November they're gonna start raising rates, 126 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 1: and it didn't happen for months later. They're gonna raise 127 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 1: for this. They had this whole projection all the way 128 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:10,599 Speaker 1: through UM and I was afraid they would be dug 129 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:12,479 Speaker 1: into that, like they were dug into their let it 130 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:15,280 Speaker 1: run hot theory, and even when things were crashing, they 131 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 1: were going to stick with that. But when they when 132 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 1: they said they would be more data driven, then it 133 00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 1: made me think, well, maybe they do sense to the 134 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 1: point you said that markets are seeing that cp I 135 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 1: might come down, and uh, if the markets are are 136 00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:31,040 Speaker 1: crashing and CPI is coming down, maybe they would respond 137 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 1: to the data as opposed to being stuck in their 138 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:36,280 Speaker 1: in their dug in their position. I think so. It's 139 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 1: and and you know, I went back and listened to 140 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 1: that part of it because I had missed that before. 141 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:43,119 Speaker 1: And I think that's significant. In the last few meetings 142 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:44,840 Speaker 1: they were saying, we are going to be very hawkish. 143 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 1: We're probably gonna raise you know, point five point seven five, 144 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,479 Speaker 1: you know, possibly even one is on the table. This time, 145 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 1: they didn't mention anything like that. They didn't talk about 146 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,720 Speaker 1: actual rates that they're going to raise. They talked about possibilities. 147 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,640 Speaker 1: But yeah, they talked about being data dependent. And to me, again, 148 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:01,800 Speaker 1: it's it's what the bond markets are telling them. They're 149 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:04,920 Speaker 1: looking at the Treasury yields falling. That's usually what happens 150 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 1: as we head into our session, right, people buy safe 151 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:11,240 Speaker 1: haven assets, they buy treasuries, so price goes up, yields drop, uh, 152 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: and then that forces the hand of the Fed on 153 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 1: the short end of the curve. So I think I 154 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 1: think that maybe the sign I think that's what they're 155 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: watching for. And we're not gonna know. We're gonna see 156 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 1: the CPI print come out. I think August tenth or something. 157 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 1: We'll see the July cp I print, and then we'll 158 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 1: see another print in September um and then the Fed 159 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 1: will meet again. So it's possible that they're done raising 160 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: rates or may they may try one more time, but 161 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 1: I think the market will reject them pretty quickly if 162 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 1: they try to do that. Do you think the CPI 163 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: prints will come down? So when we talk about CPI prints, 164 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 1: we're talking about the number. So we came up with 165 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: the latest number was nine point one, which was higher 166 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 1: than whatever eight point six were before that, And so, um, 167 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 1: do you think that that CPI print you think that 168 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 1: inflation will come down? I mean, we did see gasoline 169 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 1: prices come down, but rents make up a huge chunk 170 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 1: of that basket. They don't move very fast. I mean, 171 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 1: what do you think the odds of that really coming 172 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 1: down are I personally do. I do think nine point 173 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 1: one was probably the peak, although to be very clear, 174 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 1: I've been wrong before. I thought we were going to 175 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 1: peak sooner than this. I thought eight and a half 176 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 1: was the peak before. Um so it has been sticky high. Um. 177 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: But yeah, oil has come down substantially about or so on. 178 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 1: That drives a lot of the factors and c P I. Um. Yeah, 179 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 1: rents are kind of coming up, but those are sort 180 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 1: of lagging indicators anyways. Real estate tends to leg what 181 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 1: the equity markets do and what bitcoin does and things 182 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: like that. Um Uh. In one thing I've been reading 183 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 1: this week, inventories in businesses have been building significantly as well, 184 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:36,960 Speaker 1: and so when you have inventories get built up, what 185 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:39,680 Speaker 1: happens is there's people just can't afford to buy things. Walmart, 186 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 1: the CEO was talking about this. Food and gas prices 187 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 1: are so high that they just can't buy the clothes 188 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 1: off the shelves anymore. So nobody wants these things that 189 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:49,320 Speaker 1: will help to drive down prices as well. So I'm 190 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 1: I think we have peaked that's my guess. Yeah, I 191 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:54,679 Speaker 1: want to dig more into that specifically, because I think 192 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: there's things the FED really can't affect that are driving CPI, 193 00:08:57,960 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 1: and I think maybe over the decade we might be 194 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 1: some of the lowest. We'll see. We'll talk more about that. 195 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 1: I want to talk more about a potential recession. Have 196 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 1: they say that I talk about this chart that you 197 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 1: and I looked at that maybe is telling us things 198 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 1: that we didn't think about before. We'll talk about real estate, 199 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,400 Speaker 1: we'll talk about bitcoin and more. Um, you're listening to 200 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 1: the Mark Mos Show. We're talking about the decentralized Revolution. 201 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:20,520 Speaker 1: I'm in the studio with Dr Jeff Ross, the founder 202 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:22,839 Speaker 1: of val Shire Cap. You can find him on Twitter 203 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 1: at val Shire Cap. And if you're not following me 204 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 1: on Twitter, you should. It's just at number one, Mark Moss. 205 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:29,199 Speaker 1: We've got a lot more to cover if you want 206 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 1: to learn how to navigate this properly, So don't go away, 207 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:33,679 Speaker 1: We'll be right back. All right, Welcome back. You are 208 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: listening to the Mark Mos Show. We are talking about 209 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 1: the decentralized revolution each and every week, and this week 210 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:41,680 Speaker 1: I am in the studio with Dr Jeff Ross. He 211 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 1: is the founder of al Shire Cap. You can find 212 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: him on Twitter at val Shire Cap. We gotta do 213 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:50,199 Speaker 1: a panel together at the Bitcoin Conference two in Miami 214 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 1: this year was really cool and so we're digging back 215 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:55,200 Speaker 1: into this macro theme. We just kind of talked about 216 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 1: what the Fed did this week with the raising of 217 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 1: the rates by point seven five, and um, we didn't 218 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 1: talk about the g d P print. So, um, we 219 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:09,079 Speaker 1: also saw that and it looked like the White House 220 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 1: came out in advance of the numbers and started telling 221 00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:16,199 Speaker 1: us what you see isn't real, what you think isn't real. Uh, 222 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:19,079 Speaker 1: And they wanted to change the technical definition of of 223 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 1: of a recession to negative quarters of growth. So that 224 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:27,200 Speaker 1: was pretty weird. I think, Um, there's some truth to that, 225 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 1: and we can dig into that if you want. But then, um, 226 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 1: the Fed now had been predicting i think a negative 227 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:34,959 Speaker 1: one point six and then the GDP print came out 228 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 1: a point negative point nine and so it was bad 229 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:42,560 Speaker 1: but but better. What's your take on that? Well, it 230 00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 1: was basically as expected. I think most people that I 231 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 1: was seeing estimates anywhere from positive like half a point 232 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 1: positive all the way down to you know, about negative 233 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 1: one and a half or so. UM, So I think 234 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,280 Speaker 1: it just sort of fell within range. I think the um, 235 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 1: the powers that be knew that it was going to 236 00:10:57,880 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 1: come out negative. So that's why they came out with 237 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,079 Speaker 1: this and paign this week. Um. You know that maybe 238 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:05,439 Speaker 1: the technical, technical definition, but that's not what a recession 239 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: really is. Uh. There's this group called the n b R. 240 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 1: I think it's the National Bureau of Economic Researches, which 241 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:13,440 Speaker 1: is a group of academics who they they've had the 242 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 1: privilege of uh declaring an official recession I think since 243 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: the late seventies. Now. The irony of them is they 244 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 1: are the backward ist of backward looking data people. So 245 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 1: they usually come about a year later and say, yeah, 246 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 1: it turns out we were in a recession starting about 247 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:30,960 Speaker 1: a year ago. So I expect the same thing to 248 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 1: happen this time as well. I get Yellin's point, and 249 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:36,959 Speaker 1: I get Powell's point. They're talking about unemployment being very, 250 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 1: very low. It's they're they're absolutely right, but you know what, 251 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 1: that's legging legging data again. And so as the economy turns, 252 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:48,320 Speaker 1: as companies start to suffer, as earnings start to decline, Uh, 253 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:52,440 Speaker 1: we're already seeing small businesses, which are the most sensitive companies. UM. 254 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 1: I think it's forty five percent of small businesses are 255 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: already on hiring freezes as of last week. Uh, and 256 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 1: some somewhere around five percent are actually letting go of 257 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 1: employees already, so we should see unemployment start to rise. 258 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 1: And worse than that, I think. I think it's thirty 259 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 1: five percent of small businesses aren't aren't current with their rent, 260 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:16,319 Speaker 1: and I think it's sixty five percent of businesses in 261 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 1: the transportation sector are not current on their rent. They 262 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:21,959 Speaker 1: can't even make their payments. Um. Of course, the the 263 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:26,200 Speaker 1: in the consumer sentiment indexes are horrible. Manufacturing sentiment and 264 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 1: it's all the sentiments are horrible. Um. I think, uh 265 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 1: think that they'll have to shut their business down within 266 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 1: the next twelve months. So the sentiments are really bad. 267 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 1: But they did they did, so the White House came 268 00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 1: out and said, hey, look, that's that's not the technical definition. 269 00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 1: We also have to look at to your point, employment, 270 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:45,440 Speaker 1: the economy, other factors. But to the point that you 271 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 1: made about unemployment being historically low or whatever, I think 272 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:52,600 Speaker 1: that's another one of the CP lie you know, kind 273 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 1: of made up statistics, because yes, maybe It's true the 274 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:59,200 Speaker 1: economy added four thousand jobs, but if you look at 275 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:01,160 Speaker 1: over a core or really we didn't add that any 276 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 1: because of what we had lost before. But more importantly, 277 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 1: the labor participation rate, So the participation rate is so low, 278 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 1: So the employment rate only calculates the amount of people 279 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:15,559 Speaker 1: that have jobs that are looking for jobs, but doesn't 280 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 1: take all those people into consideration. And they've also lowered 281 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:21,439 Speaker 1: it to people who have less than full time employment. 282 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 1: And I think there's some people that probably have full 283 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 1: time jobs and part time jobs. So I think that 284 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 1: really excused the numbers. So while that one data point 285 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 1: looks okay, if you look at it through multiple data points, 286 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 1: I don't think that you're bear. So I don't have 287 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:37,720 Speaker 1: to tell you, right, the numbers aren't really that good exactly. 288 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:40,439 Speaker 1: I couldn't agree more. And I think they're being extremely 289 00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:43,360 Speaker 1: disingenuous when they talk about these kind of status as 290 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:46,319 Speaker 1: though you know, we're we're looking healthy, the economy is strong. 291 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 1: It's just not true, especially if you're a person living 292 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 1: on the margin. Right, if you're in the lower income 293 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 1: mechelons of the U s um not only are you 294 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:56,440 Speaker 1: getting destroyed on the right hand, by high prices, high 295 00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 1: grocery prices, high gasoline prices. You may not even be 296 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 1: able to afford it with one job, so you're on 297 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:03,320 Speaker 1: your second job as well. That on the other hand, 298 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:05,440 Speaker 1: you're at the highest risk of getting fired in the 299 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: next couple of months too, and so it just gets 300 00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 1: harder and harder for those kind of people. Yeah. Um, 301 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:15,880 Speaker 1: now about the inflation peaked, I mean, you know, we 302 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 1: can all sit here and guests and speculate on that. 303 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of things that are driving inflation. 304 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 1: So there's I mean, they try to they try to 305 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:27,120 Speaker 1: classify with cost push and demand pull, right, and so 306 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: the cost push is definitely going up. Costs are going up. 307 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:32,920 Speaker 1: Gas prices are so high that people can't afford to 308 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 1: commute any more. So I'll quit my job and I'll 309 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: just stay home and collect unemployment. Now the employer has 310 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 1: to pay people more to to work that job, and 311 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 1: so that's cost pushing up. Of course, supply chains and 312 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 1: the wars and blah blah blah blah blah. But then 313 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 1: on the demand poll, I don't know what your take 314 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 1: on this. Is demand pull really categorized as like um one, 315 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 1: they printed so much more money there's excess demand or 316 00:14:57,760 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 1: is it where demand pull is more of a phenomenon 317 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 1: on where people think that refrigerators is gonna be more 318 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 1: expensive in the future, so I should buy that refrigerator today, 319 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 1: or the home is gonna be more expensive, I should 320 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 1: buy the home today, And so I don't know if 321 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:10,880 Speaker 1: we're there yet. But either way, I don't see how 322 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 1: the FEDS policies, I mean, and I guess if they 323 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 1: completely crushed demand, which I think is what they're trying 324 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 1: to do, just shut down make everybody feel poor. I 325 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 1: don't know if they can really affect inflation that much. 326 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 1: I hear you, I hear you. But I think that's 327 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 1: what they're trying to do. Whether or not they'll succeed, 328 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: it remains to be seen. I think what they're trying 329 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 1: to do is to crush demand exactly, and so they 330 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:35,000 Speaker 1: so as more people on that you know, again at 331 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 1: the people on the in the lower echelons of the 332 00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 1: income strata, um as they get hit, as they lose 333 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 1: their jobs, um, they're not. They're not going to be 334 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:44,960 Speaker 1: able to afford things like they were, even like that's 335 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: what came out with the Walmart results, right, the CEO 336 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 1: was talking about how people they have to spend more 337 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 1: of their paycheck on um gas and on food, so 338 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: they just can't buy the clothes anymore. So now we're 339 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 1: seeing inventories build up at lots of these stores. Um. 340 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 1: As the inventories build up, people just they the supply 341 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 1: has become more and more worthless because people just don't 342 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 1: want these clothes and so so the prices that will 343 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:08,720 Speaker 1: drive prices down. The other effect, by the way, that's 344 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 1: related to demand destruction, as real estate comes down, as 345 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 1: equities come down, the wealth effect of the middle and 346 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 1: upper classes, the people who own stocks, who own a 347 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 1: lot of these assets, we're seeing, uh, you know, those 348 00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:25,320 Speaker 1: numbers come down significantly. People are down depending on what 349 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 1: your what your thing is. If you're an ARC investor, 350 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 1: you're down fifty um. So they just don't have the ability, 351 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 1: that the room to buy so many things too. So 352 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:35,400 Speaker 1: I think that can help drive down prices. But yeah, 353 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 1: it's anybody's guess. It's so hard to read this system 354 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 1: right now and what's going to happen. I had another 355 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:43,200 Speaker 1: I had another Jeff on this week, and Jeff Snyder, 356 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 1: and uh, you know, he says that the FEDS powerless, 357 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 1: and I'll release that whole talk the Feds powerless and 358 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 1: the euro dollar market so big and they can't affect them, 359 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 1: blah blah blah. Um. He likes to get into the 360 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 1: technical definitions, and this is where him and I, you know, 361 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,200 Speaker 1: jockey back and forth a little bit, where Um, he 362 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 1: doesn't really believe in the wealth effect or the reverse 363 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 1: wealth effect, and I'm just like, I mean, I don't 364 00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 1: have empirical data to show you, but like I wasn't. 365 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:08,200 Speaker 1: I'm never gonna sell my bitcoin, I'm not going to 366 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:10,359 Speaker 1: sell my house, but I still feel less wealthy and 367 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 1: I'm second guessing my vacations. I think the economy is 368 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:15,239 Speaker 1: gonna be worse than the future and I might want 369 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 1: to hold on my money today. Like it's affecting me, 370 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 1: it's affecting everybody I know. Like, so I agree with 371 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 1: you on the on the wealth effect. It's it's it's real. 372 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:25,439 Speaker 1: I don't know how to quantify it, I guess is 373 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:29,119 Speaker 1: the problem. But um, I made a video two weeks 374 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: ago um saying does this mark the bottom? And I 375 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:37,359 Speaker 1: gave a bunch of data points as to why. And 376 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,399 Speaker 1: it was really partly triggered by that last CPI print 377 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 1: that had come out. I thought that nine point one 378 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 1: was a shock and it was going to change everything, 379 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 1: and I thought maybe that was gonna be the bottom. 380 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 1: So I wanna I want to talk to you some 381 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:50,680 Speaker 1: of those data points and then let's speculate on where 382 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:54,240 Speaker 1: we think that the risk on assets the NASDAC, Bitcoin, etcetera. 383 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:56,880 Speaker 1: Are gonna go. Um, and we'll talk about that chart 384 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:58,919 Speaker 1: we looked at before. UM. If you're just tuning in, 385 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 1: you're listening to the Mark Mos Show. We're talking about 386 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 1: the decentralized revolution through the lens of politics, finance and technology. 387 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,119 Speaker 1: I'm in the studio with Dr Jeff Rossi is the 388 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,879 Speaker 1: founder of val Shire Cap. You can find them on 389 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 1: Twitter at val Shire Cap im on Twitter at one 390 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,200 Speaker 1: Mark Moss. We've got a lot more to cover talking 391 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 1: about the bottom. Don't go away, We'll be right back, 392 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 1: all right, Welcome back. If you're just tuning in, you're 393 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: listening to the Mark Mos Show. We're talking about the 394 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:24,919 Speaker 1: decentralized revolution, each and every week, explaining to you the 395 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,399 Speaker 1: madness of the world, how we got here, what's going on, 396 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,879 Speaker 1: more importantly, where we are going. UM. I'm in the 397 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 1: studio with Dr Jeff Ross. He is the founder of 398 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 1: val Shire Cap and uh, we are talking about a 399 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 1: lot of the market movements that happened this week, where 400 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,280 Speaker 1: we're at and where we're going. Now. If you've missed 401 00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:45,000 Speaker 1: any of that, we're not going to recap at all. 402 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 1: But don't worry. I got your back. You can check 403 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 1: it out on the podcast. Just search Mark Moss podcast, 404 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,880 Speaker 1: find it on iTunes, the I heart app, or on YouTube. 405 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:56,920 Speaker 1: Put these up on YouTube as well. UM, so let's 406 00:18:56,920 --> 00:19:00,280 Speaker 1: talk about the bottom maybe so too? We soho I 407 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 1: made a video um talking about have we seen the 408 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 1: bottom of bitcoin and really kind of risk on assets 409 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 1: in general? And what really sparked that was a couple 410 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:11,200 Speaker 1: of things. One, it was that crazy high nine point 411 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:13,679 Speaker 1: one CPI print, which you said earlier you thought we 412 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 1: probably had reversed off of that, but here we were, 413 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 1: and I think a lot of people were caught off 414 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 1: guard by that, including the FED. And what I was 415 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:23,399 Speaker 1: speculating on was that because it was so hot, so 416 00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:26,600 Speaker 1: much higher, the FED would have to respond even more 417 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 1: aggressively than they wanted to, and then it would move 418 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 1: their dot plot forward. So they had wanted to raise rates. 419 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 1: Three now they'd have to be more aggressive move it forward, 420 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:39,679 Speaker 1: which means they would probably finish raising rates this year 421 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:42,639 Speaker 1: by the fall of this year. UM and I had 422 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:44,159 Speaker 1: a bunch of metrics and charts to show that. So 423 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:45,879 Speaker 1: I thought if if they finished that, that means they 424 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:50,199 Speaker 1: paused this year. And then, UM, the risk on assets 425 00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,120 Speaker 1: moved well in advance of other assets. So when they 426 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 1: announced when the Fed announced they were going to raise 427 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:58,200 Speaker 1: rates in November, Bitcoin and the NASDAC made their all 428 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,239 Speaker 1: time highs at that point where the SMPD and make 429 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 1: a high tel January. And so if risk on assets 430 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:06,760 Speaker 1: move in advance, then maybe now that the market is 431 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 1: going to say that they're going to move this forward, 432 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 1: they'll stop, they'll stop raising rates. Maybe risk on assets 433 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:15,119 Speaker 1: could start to rebound. And so far it looks like 434 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 1: that's about the case. Obviously, we won't know until we 435 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:20,040 Speaker 1: get further down the line and look backwards. UM, but 436 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 1: you and I were looking at a chart of the 437 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 1: Nasdaq on a weekly chart back to two thousand eight, 438 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,879 Speaker 1: and man, it's it's it's held up with its market structure, 439 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:31,159 Speaker 1: and you're a bear. What do you what do you 440 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:34,160 Speaker 1: think about that? And on the RSI show, is extremely 441 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 1: over sold, so right right, yeah, yeah, And I'll tell 442 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 1: you I'm definitely um questioning my bearishness, and I've been 443 00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:41,840 Speaker 1: doing that for the last couple of days, even though 444 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:47,239 Speaker 1: I've still been fundamentally bearished. It's how can you how 445 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:49,200 Speaker 1: can you not be with all the damage, with all 446 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,680 Speaker 1: with all the danger out there, exactly so much danger 447 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,119 Speaker 1: out there, but at some point it has to go 448 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 1: from bad to less bad. At some point we do bottom, right, 449 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,679 Speaker 1: And I'm aware of that. So so I have a system. 450 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of not trying to call by thems. I. 451 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 1: I try to wait until bottoms are confirmed with my system, 452 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 1: and so I use a lot of moving averages and 453 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: things like that. It's very possible that this move up 454 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,920 Speaker 1: that we've seen in risk assets is what did mark 455 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:14,879 Speaker 1: the bottom that bitcoin kind of marked at first, and 456 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:18,800 Speaker 1: equities have followed as well. Um, I'm I'm reluctant to 457 00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 1: say that. Here's why though. In past recessions, if we 458 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:23,680 Speaker 1: look back at the two thousand and eight two thousand 459 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 1: nine recession and then the dot com crash from two 460 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 1: thousand to two thousand two, those were much longer recessions, 461 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:34,160 Speaker 1: and the common um the average amount of a bear 462 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 1: market rally. So this this kind of uh um, the 463 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 1: recent rally that we've seen, the the average amount is 464 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:43,960 Speaker 1: fifteen pcent during our recession. What we've just seen with 465 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,159 Speaker 1: the with the S and P five hundered is literally 466 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 1: right around a rally. So either we're just doing exactly 467 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,600 Speaker 1: what we always do in a recession and in big 468 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:54,680 Speaker 1: bear markets, and we're going to peek and then head 469 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 1: back down again. That's still what I'm betting on. I 470 00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 1: still think that's what's going to happen. Or we have 471 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 1: bottom and and these we're gonna retake some momentum indicators 472 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:05,160 Speaker 1: and we're going to start a new bullish um, new 473 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 1: bull market. I still remain skeptical, but but I'm I'm 474 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 1: happy to be wrong if that means we can pivot 475 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,600 Speaker 1: and turn bullish and make money for for our clients. Um, 476 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 1: you know, I'd rather make money than be right. But 477 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:19,040 Speaker 1: but we'll see, we'll see what happens. Yeah, you're absolutely right. 478 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,560 Speaker 1: And uh I recently just did a video I've actually 479 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:26,680 Speaker 1: used many times before, which was the Wall Street Psychology. 480 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:28,439 Speaker 1: You know you've seen that one where it kind of 481 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 1: shows and it shows the crash and then there's the bounce, right. 482 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:33,200 Speaker 1: And so if you look back to the Great Depression, 483 00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:34,960 Speaker 1: you look at the two tho eight crash, you get 484 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 1: about an initial drop followed by a retrace and then 485 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,880 Speaker 1: it just falls the cliff. And so that's the that's 486 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 1: the typical pattern. Like I said, we've seen it many 487 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:48,399 Speaker 1: times before, and we're kind of right there, right now, 488 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,720 Speaker 1: right there exactly. So we had the draw down, we've 489 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 1: got the fifth percent retrase, and like maybe it could 490 00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:58,000 Speaker 1: fall off a cliff, right, So that's that's what I'm doing. 491 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:00,119 Speaker 1: So I'm positioned. I'm kind of neutral right now, and 492 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 1: based on my trading system, it's it's sort of leaning 493 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,159 Speaker 1: neutral because I don't know whichever we're gonna go. We 494 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,119 Speaker 1: could completely fall off a cliff and that would make 495 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 1: total sense to me, or or maybe it is the 496 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 1: start of a new bowl market. We'll see. I had 497 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 1: another one of our our mutual friends on a week 498 00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 1: ago and uh, Lawrence Lepard, and uh, he thinks that 499 00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,880 Speaker 1: he agrees that the FED. His base case, I should say, 500 00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 1: none of us know. We make assumptions and we assigned 501 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 1: probabilities to them. Right. His base case was that the 502 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:33,239 Speaker 1: FED would most likely pivot by the fall, by by 503 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,359 Speaker 1: the election mid terms. But he thinks that we have 504 00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 1: a massive crash between now and then. That's it, that's 505 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 1: his base case. Um, but I don't know, man, I'm 506 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 1: I'm I'm the eternal optimist, right. We always have to 507 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:49,199 Speaker 1: be aware of our own bias, right, and I'm the 508 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:54,400 Speaker 1: eternal optimists. Always have to check my my optimism bias. Um. 509 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 1: We know, we know what reality is. But man, the 510 00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:01,119 Speaker 1: central banks are pretty good with magic. It appears, you know, 511 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,440 Speaker 1: it's it's tough. That's what makes investing so interesting is 512 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:07,959 Speaker 1: you just don't know. And like you said, it's all 513 00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:11,320 Speaker 1: about probabilities. And so this is the first time since 514 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:15,160 Speaker 1: January where I'm at about a probability, Like, I don't 515 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:16,680 Speaker 1: know if it's going to go higher lower. I'm just 516 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:18,639 Speaker 1: following the system and we'll see. I might just be 517 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:20,840 Speaker 1: sitting in cash for a while until a direction gets 518 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:24,639 Speaker 1: proven out. Yeah, I'm certainly with you on the direction right, 519 00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 1: not trying to catch a falling knife. I like the 520 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:28,119 Speaker 1: right trends. I always talk about. I'm a surfer, so 521 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,119 Speaker 1: I ride waves, so I look for the storm. I 522 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:32,560 Speaker 1: go to where those waves are going to go for 523 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:33,840 Speaker 1: the storm and then I wait and I ride the 524 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:35,520 Speaker 1: wave when it gets there. So that's how I think 525 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 1: about investing. Look for the look for the storm, position yourself, 526 00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 1: and then wait for the trend to develop, as opposed 527 00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:43,520 Speaker 1: to trying to catch that falling knife. Um and yeah, 528 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:46,920 Speaker 1: nothing nothing wrong with being in cash right now today, UM, 529 00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:50,600 Speaker 1: let's talk about let's talk about real estate. I see 530 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:52,480 Speaker 1: I've seen you talking about real estate a little bit before. 531 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:56,920 Speaker 1: I made another video recently about about real estate, and um, 532 00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,000 Speaker 1: I was talking about it from a couple of different ways, right, 533 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,440 Speaker 1: and uh, I think as investors, and you might agree 534 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 1: with me or feel free to disagree with me, but 535 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,680 Speaker 1: we we we can't call tops and bottoms until we're 536 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,359 Speaker 1: looking backwards on them, and so we just try to 537 00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:13,399 Speaker 1: think about when things are cheaper expensive. And so if 538 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,680 Speaker 1: you look at real estate from a case killer index perspective, 539 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:22,040 Speaker 1: it's very expensive. It's never been more expensive. But um, 540 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 1: as I showed in this video, like homes are purchased 541 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,399 Speaker 1: with a loan, so nobody buys the house what they 542 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,199 Speaker 1: buy as a payment, right, and so then you have 543 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,640 Speaker 1: to look at the affordability index and so like, well, 544 00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,680 Speaker 1: what's the you know, what's the payment versus the income? 545 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 1: And then and then you have to look at what's 546 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,160 Speaker 1: the rent versus buy. When it's cheaper to rent, people rent. 547 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 1: When it's cheaper to buy, people buy, And you have 548 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,240 Speaker 1: to kind of look at it. I argued from those perspectives. 549 00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:47,199 Speaker 1: But then I asked a question, and I don't know 550 00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:49,040 Speaker 1: the answer. So I'm gonna ask you this question. I 551 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:51,600 Speaker 1: put it out to the to the the audience, and 552 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,960 Speaker 1: and I got a mixed bag of results. But if 553 00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,200 Speaker 1: real estate will not if since real estate has basically 554 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:02,719 Speaker 1: seen increase over the last decade, when something moves up 555 00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:07,040 Speaker 1: that strong and fast, isn't a correction healthy and expected? 556 00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:14,560 Speaker 1: And so if we got a pull back or pullback 557 00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 1: in real estate, is that a correction or at what 558 00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:21,800 Speaker 1: point does it become a crash? Well? Yeah, I mean 559 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,480 Speaker 1: that's when you just get into technicalities right in definitions. 560 00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:26,440 Speaker 1: I agree with you that it's healthy. And I think 561 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:30,359 Speaker 1: that's the problem with the centrally controlled financial system that 562 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,400 Speaker 1: we have is the FED and the central banks don't 563 00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:36,960 Speaker 1: allow for these corrections, these you know, these reversions to 564 00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,680 Speaker 1: the mean when we see prices go up so far 565 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:43,160 Speaker 1: and so fast in these assets like real estate, like equities, 566 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:46,160 Speaker 1: like other things, they continue to prop them up every 567 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,520 Speaker 1: time they start to correct again. And so so I 568 00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:50,680 Speaker 1: think it's very healthy and I think it should correct. 569 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 1: In fact, I would love for real estate to overcorrect 570 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,400 Speaker 1: to the downside. You know, that's probably not what investors 571 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:57,000 Speaker 1: want to hear, but at least in the short term, 572 00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:00,280 Speaker 1: it has become so unaffordable that it's pricing out. You know, 573 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,119 Speaker 1: millennials and gen's ears are having a tough time buying 574 00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:05,760 Speaker 1: houses because of the prices that have gone so high. 575 00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,200 Speaker 1: So I would love to see them pull back substantially, 576 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:11,680 Speaker 1: uh for the most part. And I would love to 577 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,280 Speaker 1: see some of the huge investors, like the black Rocks 578 00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,600 Speaker 1: and these private equity firms that owned tons of real estate, 579 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,399 Speaker 1: I'd love to see them own less, honestly, uh, so 580 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,360 Speaker 1: that I could get back to more of a reasonable 581 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,920 Speaker 1: valuation for first time homebuyers. Um. I think that's one 582 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 1: thing that if we do get a pretty good recession, 583 00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:29,199 Speaker 1: that's one thing that could happen, and that would be 584 00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,919 Speaker 1: a healthy reset. So I think of corrections more is 585 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,840 Speaker 1: just like you, a healthy reset, uh. And that's and 586 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:36,320 Speaker 1: that and that's a good thing. It's a good thing 587 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:39,720 Speaker 1: for capitalism in general, a good thing for investing. Yeah, 588 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 1: I don't know. There could be danger there with black croc. 589 00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:43,600 Speaker 1: I'm gonna talk about that danger in a minute when 590 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:45,720 Speaker 1: we come back here and listen to the Mark ma Show. 591 00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,240 Speaker 1: We're talking with Dr Jeff Frost. We're back in a minute. 592 00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,560 Speaker 1: Don't go away, all right, Welcome back. You're listening to 593 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 1: the Mark Moa Show. We're talking about the decentralized Revolution, politics, finance, technology, 594 00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,840 Speaker 1: and of course we're talking about bitcoin as the technology 595 00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:00,280 Speaker 1: changes the world as we know it. I'm in the 596 00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 1: studio with Dr Jeff Ross, founder of val Shire Cap. 597 00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:04,320 Speaker 1: You can find them on Twitter at val Shire Cap 598 00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,080 Speaker 1: and we've been talking a lot of things about the economy, 599 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:10,720 Speaker 1: the GDP prints and inflation and so forth. But back 600 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:12,359 Speaker 1: to the comment you said about real estate for a 601 00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:15,520 Speaker 1: second there. You know, Uh, one thing that you said 602 00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,960 Speaker 1: just kind of caught me was to see some of 603 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:20,840 Speaker 1: this wash out, maybe some of these black rocks that 604 00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 1: are buying up all the real estate. But what I'm 605 00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:27,439 Speaker 1: afraid of is this, uh you know, own nothing to 606 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:29,480 Speaker 1: be happy, so to speak, and like every time we 607 00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,040 Speaker 1: have these crashes, it seems like a way to transfer 608 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,320 Speaker 1: wealth from the rich from the port of the ridge, 609 00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:37,520 Speaker 1: and so, um, look at the two thousand eight financial crash, right, 610 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,360 Speaker 1: what happens in a parabolic run. You start sucking in 611 00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:42,920 Speaker 1: more buyers and eventually the market runs out of buyers 612 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:44,880 Speaker 1: and then it crashes off. And so, whether that be 613 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,600 Speaker 1: the dot com boom or the real estate market in 614 00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,320 Speaker 1: two thousand eight, or whatever bitcoin market you want to 615 00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,960 Speaker 1: call it, but in two thousand and eight, everyone started 616 00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,200 Speaker 1: buying homes. People were lining up and they're buying five 617 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:58,760 Speaker 1: homes or ten homes and at a time or whatever, right, um, 618 00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:01,080 Speaker 1: And and it sucked in more more people. So oh 619 00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:02,840 Speaker 1: four oh five, oh six, I mean it sucked in 620 00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:04,880 Speaker 1: the most amount of people. But then it crashed and 621 00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:08,080 Speaker 1: then millions of people lost their homes. And then it 622 00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:10,680 Speaker 1: was the black Rocks, not specifically Black Rock, but the 623 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,520 Speaker 1: but the Wall Street funds that went and just snapped 624 00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,360 Speaker 1: them all up. Got basically free money, had all this 625 00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,760 Speaker 1: unlimited financing, and so it really transferred home ownership from 626 00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:23,280 Speaker 1: the individual millions of individuals two institutions, and then the 627 00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:26,040 Speaker 1: individuals became renters. And so while I would love to 628 00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:28,840 Speaker 1: see the black Rocks get shaken out, I'm afraid they have. 629 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,680 Speaker 1: Actually I saw a report this week like fifty billion. 630 00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:33,840 Speaker 1: I think it said sitting on the sidelines, ready to 631 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 1: snap up real estate. So to the point, I'd love 632 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,040 Speaker 1: to see them washed out, I'm afraid we see millions 633 00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,240 Speaker 1: of people loser home and then they deployed this fifty 634 00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:43,800 Speaker 1: billion and they've become an even bigger player. And that's 635 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 1: where these booms and busts that that that happened. I 636 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,520 Speaker 1: don't know what what's your thoughts on that? Well, that's 637 00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:50,120 Speaker 1: just how it works, right, I mean, it's the The 638 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:53,160 Speaker 1: name of the game, honestly is liquidity, and it's do 639 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,640 Speaker 1: you have access to liquidity during the boom time so 640 00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:58,240 Speaker 1: that you can you can juice your games? And then 641 00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,440 Speaker 1: during the bear times there is estionary times. Do you 642 00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:04,360 Speaker 1: have a stockpile of cash sitting on the sidelines or 643 00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:08,240 Speaker 1: something liquid, some sort of good collateral. Most regular people don't. 644 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,680 Speaker 1: Most people don't think like that. They don't plan for 645 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:12,760 Speaker 1: a rainy day, They don't save up, you know, five 646 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,520 Speaker 1: thousand dollars sitting in their banks so they can buy 647 00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:18,080 Speaker 1: some cheap houses when we hit a recession. But black 648 00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:20,320 Speaker 1: Rock does, and they have access to capital, they have 649 00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:23,360 Speaker 1: access to the credit markets. Um, that's just kind of 650 00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:25,720 Speaker 1: how the Fiat system is wired. And the people who 651 00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:29,280 Speaker 1: play the Fiat system game really well, they just make 652 00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:32,040 Speaker 1: endless amounts of money. Uh. And that's why we see 653 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 1: and I know you talked about this all the time, 654 00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:37,760 Speaker 1: but these massive, huge inequality gaps for for you know, income, 655 00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,560 Speaker 1: Like it's the rich get richer, the poor get poor, 656 00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,240 Speaker 1: and that's just the name of the game for the 657 00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:46,480 Speaker 1: Fiat system unfortunately. So then what lessons can we learn 658 00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:48,080 Speaker 1: from that? And this is something I've been thinking about 659 00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:50,640 Speaker 1: a lot lately because in two thousand eight, I was 660 00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:53,440 Speaker 1: all in on real estate and I had done really well, 661 00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 1: sold multiple businesses in different sectors. But I was all 662 00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 1: in our real estate. When it cracked, I got wiped out, 663 00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,520 Speaker 1: My income was wiped out. I couldn't take advantage of 664 00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:03,600 Speaker 1: all those sales. But I saw other people who came 665 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:05,280 Speaker 1: in was able to get some credit lines and snap 666 00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:07,400 Speaker 1: them up and there in a completely different position than 667 00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 1: than I was. Um. And so then to the point 668 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:12,000 Speaker 1: that you just made, which I agree with, So thinking 669 00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,400 Speaker 1: about it like that, then I guess people should try 670 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:17,600 Speaker 1: to think the opposite of what they typically do so 671 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,680 Speaker 1: maybe instead of trying to deploy all the capital now, 672 00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:23,840 Speaker 1: maybe stockpile not only their capital, but also maybe try 673 00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:28,000 Speaker 1: to really work on building their credit lines. Sure, and 674 00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:30,880 Speaker 1: then that's the best you know, that's the best FIAT solution. Absolutely, 675 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:33,120 Speaker 1: there's lots of tricks and for that. And that's what 676 00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,720 Speaker 1: I used to talk about pre bitcoin, like what do 677 00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:37,760 Speaker 1: you do you know, build up strong credit lines, build 678 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:41,040 Speaker 1: up savings you know, uh, earn more than you spend 679 00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:43,800 Speaker 1: and all those kind of things. Invest wisely and uh 680 00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:46,240 Speaker 1: and prepare kind of rainy day funds and think about 681 00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:48,400 Speaker 1: it from a kind of a more longer term perspective, 682 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:51,320 Speaker 1: like how to be a Warren buffet, uh, individually for 683 00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:54,320 Speaker 1: yourself and for your family. I tell people these days, 684 00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,040 Speaker 1: I think the smartest thing to do is actually just 685 00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,560 Speaker 1: dollar cost average into bitcoin. Like, if you have very 686 00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,080 Speaker 1: little money, put a little bit of that, even if 687 00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:03,400 Speaker 1: it's ten percent, so say it's even like five bucks 688 00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:05,760 Speaker 1: a week or ten bucks a week, um, put that 689 00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:10,040 Speaker 1: into bitcoin. Because bitcoin does what basically homeownership used to 690 00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:13,080 Speaker 1: do or should do for people, That builds your equity. UM. 691 00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:15,040 Speaker 1: So if you just kind of don't even think about 692 00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 1: it and just put it in it's sort of like 693 00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:18,920 Speaker 1: paying off your mortgage. You're just building your equity whether 694 00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 1: you want to or not. You know, that's the nice 695 00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:24,080 Speaker 1: thing about having these automated systems. You're just building equity 696 00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:27,440 Speaker 1: and the Bitcoin financial network, and then over time your 697 00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:31,400 Speaker 1: net worth will grow as bitcoin appreciates some value. Yeah. No, 698 00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:34,480 Speaker 1: I couldn't agree more. Obviously, I talk about bitcoin all 699 00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,800 Speaker 1: the time on this show. Um But another thing I 700 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:38,880 Speaker 1: want to talk about. We only have a couple of 701 00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:42,160 Speaker 1: minutes left, but is this this financial repression? And so 702 00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,440 Speaker 1: really when nations get into deep debt, there's only a 703 00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,640 Speaker 1: couple of ways out. They can default, that doesn't really work, 704 00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:48,560 Speaker 1: Austerity doesn't work. They can tax the way, but that 705 00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:50,959 Speaker 1: won't work, and so then their last option is kind 706 00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,280 Speaker 1: of like the financial oppression, which is basically forced people 707 00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:57,200 Speaker 1: into buying government debt and bonds and then give them 708 00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,080 Speaker 1: negative rates so they'll pay you three or four percent 709 00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:02,760 Speaker 1: while we have seven eight sent inflation. And that seems 710 00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:05,120 Speaker 1: to me the most most likely outcome. I mean, we're 711 00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:06,719 Speaker 1: already in it, right. The I m f is put 712 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,880 Speaker 1: out papers in it that we're already seeing that. Um one, 713 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,600 Speaker 1: do you agree with that? And if to then, Um, 714 00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:14,840 Speaker 1: in that type of environment, do you think bitcoin is 715 00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:18,800 Speaker 1: still the best place to go? And I think I 716 00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:20,800 Speaker 1: think you're totally right on I completely agree with you. 717 00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:22,920 Speaker 1: And I think that you know, they have these four options. 718 00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:24,720 Speaker 1: I think what they always choose if they have the 719 00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:26,640 Speaker 1: ability to print money, that's what they're gonna do. They're 720 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,680 Speaker 1: gonna print money. They're going to debase the the the 721 00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:32,680 Speaker 1: purchasing power of their population in order for the government 722 00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,360 Speaker 1: to survive. So it's on the backs of their citizens, which, 723 00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,080 Speaker 1: by the way, I hate it drives me crazy. Bitcoin 724 00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,360 Speaker 1: for the first time, though, gives people a way out, 725 00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:44,560 Speaker 1: and so I'm a little less optimistic for government that 726 00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:46,600 Speaker 1: it's going to work as well this time around. I 727 00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:48,040 Speaker 1: think what they're going to try to do is get 728 00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:51,920 Speaker 1: American citizens to hold cash and hold treasuries and then, 729 00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:55,240 Speaker 1: as you say, they're going to basically inflate the value away. Uh, 730 00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:57,120 Speaker 1: you know, they're going to debase the value of the 731 00:33:57,200 --> 00:33:59,560 Speaker 1: US dollar, So the people who are stuck holding the 732 00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,520 Speaker 1: treasury are basically going to just just watch their purchasing 733 00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:05,520 Speaker 1: power evaporate over the next couple of years. Um, we 734 00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,680 Speaker 1: actually can opt out with bitcoin, and I think Normally 735 00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:10,680 Speaker 1: I would say go to gold, go to heart assets, 736 00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:13,160 Speaker 1: but I think bitcoin is the best of those worlds 737 00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:16,160 Speaker 1: right now. So I think it's extremely wise to to 738 00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:19,000 Speaker 1: UH to preserve your purchasing power in bitcoin. It's sort 739 00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,799 Speaker 1: of outside. It's a parallel financial system that can't be 740 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:24,479 Speaker 1: touched or affected in the same way that these other 741 00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:27,680 Speaker 1: assets can. Yeah, I like to say that when when 742 00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,279 Speaker 1: the government's continue to print an unlimited amount of fake 743 00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,719 Speaker 1: fiat currency, then you want to hold hard, real things 744 00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:36,520 Speaker 1: that they can't inflate, and so that that that brings 745 00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:38,440 Speaker 1: us back to bitcoin, which is something they can't create 746 00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:41,560 Speaker 1: more of UM, and that certainly looks to be like 747 00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:46,080 Speaker 1: the most likely outcome UM until something breaks, which we 748 00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:48,879 Speaker 1: don't know what that is. But I think I think 749 00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:51,280 Speaker 1: about in terms of like the law of diminishing returns, 750 00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:54,880 Speaker 1: and right we can already see that each each time 751 00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:56,919 Speaker 1: they have to pump the bubble back up, it takes 752 00:34:56,960 --> 00:35:00,520 Speaker 1: more money. So it's seven hundred billion tar been two 753 00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:02,720 Speaker 1: thousand and eight, and it was I know, seven trillion 754 00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:04,880 Speaker 1: in twenty and what's the next one going to be? 755 00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:08,680 Speaker 1: Twenty twenty trillion? And then it just affects less and 756 00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:10,399 Speaker 1: less and less and then eventually it just doesn't work. 757 00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:15,640 Speaker 1: But um, who knows, right, Eventually people don't want that 758 00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,400 Speaker 1: currency that you keep, uh, you keep creating more and 759 00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,680 Speaker 1: more and more of Eventually people look at it and 760 00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:22,040 Speaker 1: be like, why would I want this? If you can 761 00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:25,080 Speaker 1: print twenty trillion of it, you know, over a year 762 00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,600 Speaker 1: to to debase your currency and pay off these unpayable debts, 763 00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:30,520 Speaker 1: what's the point of even holding it? And so that's 764 00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:34,040 Speaker 1: when people start hoarding hard assets, start hoarding bitcoin and 765 00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:36,920 Speaker 1: golden real estate as well. Yeah. I just I just 766 00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,759 Speaker 1: covered in uh an article earlier before you came on. Um, 767 00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,880 Speaker 1: the Cato Institute put out so basically the Fed, you know, 768 00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:46,200 Speaker 1: they're trying to do the Central bank digital currency. They 769 00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,960 Speaker 1: opened up for comment and they had thousands of comments 770 00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,279 Speaker 1: that came in. Cato Institute went through all the data 771 00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:55,160 Speaker 1: and sixty of the respondents are completely against the Central 772 00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:58,920 Speaker 1: bank digital currency, which is great, that's great news or four. 773 00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:01,680 Speaker 1: But they don't seem to under stand it, per the responses. 774 00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:04,840 Speaker 1: And so man, if they switched to something like that, 775 00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:07,160 Speaker 1: that could and one of the fears they cited is 776 00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:14,359 Speaker 1: it could actually force people out of the currency even faster. Yeah, yeah, 777 00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,040 Speaker 1: it's easy to see that, you know. Yeah, Yeah, it's 778 00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:19,440 Speaker 1: it's it's all of the terrible properties of Fiat to 779 00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:21,799 Speaker 1: begin with, and then it attacks on surveillance with it, 780 00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:25,000 Speaker 1: and so you know, and it's it's it's just it's 781 00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:27,719 Speaker 1: a it's a nightmarish it's or it's an Orwellian situation. 782 00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:29,560 Speaker 1: So so I think I think that would be the 783 00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:32,200 Speaker 1: best marketing ever for a bitcoin if they actually came 784 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:34,600 Speaker 1: out with that. I agree. So then it gives them 785 00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:37,200 Speaker 1: a way to easily print more money, more stimulus, which 786 00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:39,720 Speaker 1: just the values the currency even faster. And then because 787 00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:41,719 Speaker 1: they were William System, nobody wants to hold it, and 788 00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:44,000 Speaker 1: I mean it's the best marketing they could have. I agree. 789 00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:47,280 Speaker 1: So anyway, man, we've covered a lot. I really appreciate 790 00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:49,080 Speaker 1: you taking the time to join me today. You're listening 791 00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:51,480 Speaker 1: to the Mark Moss Show. I'm in the studio with 792 00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:53,520 Speaker 1: Dr Jeff Ross, founder of al Shire Cap. You can 793 00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:57,160 Speaker 1: find them on Twitter at val Shire Cap that's pronounced 794 00:36:57,160 --> 00:36:59,279 Speaker 1: like veil and shire Cap, and you can of course 795 00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:02,720 Speaker 1: find me on Twitter at one Mark Moss. We covered 796 00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:05,919 Speaker 1: the economy, We covered the data from the Fed, uh, 797 00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:08,120 Speaker 1: did markets bottom and so much more. If you missed it, 798 00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:10,479 Speaker 1: check it out on the podcast You search Mark Moss 799 00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,480 Speaker 1: podcast on the I Heart Radio network or on YouTube, 800 00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,280 Speaker 1: and uh that's what we got. Thanks so much for listening. 801 00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:17,120 Speaker 1: Until next time,