Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Single best idea on
Speaker 1: a Friday, will do it quickly? What a week? I mean?
Speaker 1: Am I as exhausted as I was? What three weeks ago?
Speaker 1: Six weeks ago? I don't think so. But nevertheless, my
Speaker 1: head's spinning over the market reaction, over the worry about
Speaker 1: long term yields. Just the reports of Japan midnight two
Speaker 1: am Eastern Time on their GDP, of negative statistic on
Speaker 1: GDP with some huge political ramifications. I'd look for that.
Speaker 1: I think the trade negotiation I'm guessing. I'm not predicting.
Speaker 1: I'm guessing the trade negotiations with Japan in the United
Speaker 1: States will be absolutely fascinating. Just look at the size
Speaker 1: of Toyota imports. Maybe not like the seventies of the eighties,
Speaker 1: but still huge. It was great to catch up with
Speaker 1: William Lee of the Milkin Institute. He's been incredibly busy
Speaker 1: with their wonderful conference. Thank you to Carrol Masser, Salibassek
Speaker 1: and our team Romain Bostic for the coverage out there
Speaker 1: at Milkin. Here's Billy the chief economist of the Milkan Institute.
Speaker 1: On tariffs and services.
Speaker 2: It's pretty hard to tariff services, isn't it, especially when
Speaker 2: when it's a license for American banks to sell financial
Speaker 2: products in China and so so, I think the whole
Speaker 2: notion that tariffs has been done away with, especially with
Speaker 2: the different rounds of tarif productions we've had over many decades.
Speaker 2: But they are real serious barriers to trade that Ricardo
Speaker 2: didn't deal with. Our non tariff barriers, and the legal
Speaker 2: requirements and health requirements and and and and quality standards
Speaker 2: that are demanded of US exports into various countries. Those
Speaker 2: are the obstacles that are part of the negotiation practice
Speaker 2: that President Trump wanted to incentivize by putting up this
Speaker 2: huge tier parias. Look, you guys, let's get service, getting
Speaker 2: rid of the real series blocks the trade.
Speaker 1: William Lee, We'll have them on for a longer conversation.
Speaker 1: All of us work with the International Monetary Fund and
Speaker 1: the Pacific RIM and now at Milkin Institute. Part of
Speaker 1: what we do in Survanna as we do market coverage.
Speaker 1: What's the stock market can do? Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities,
Speaker 1: But we really like to speak with authorities. I can't
Speaker 1: say enough about our conversation today with ellen Wald. The
Speaker 1: book is Saudi inc. And she was just fabulous on
Speaker 1: the nations and the tribes of the Arabian Peninsula and
Speaker 1: from Morocco over to Persia as well. After the president's
Speaker 1: trip to the Middle East, ellen Wald.
Speaker 3: Every oil industry in the Middle East is run differently,
Speaker 3: and I think that's a common misperception. People think it's
Speaker 3: just this monolithic, you know, national oil companies, but it's
Speaker 3: actually very different. A Rampo has a totally different break
Speaker 3: even price from say the Kuwait Oil Company or or
Speaker 3: you know the UAE or you know, even bock Rain
Speaker 3: for example. So a Ramcos is basically the lowest in
Speaker 3: the world. Their break even is, you know, depending on
Speaker 3: what they're producing, you can be between two dollars and
Speaker 3: ten dollars. They usually like to say around six. It's
Speaker 3: kind of an average. That's the lowest in the entire world.
Speaker 3: So no matter how low oil prices go, a Ramco
Speaker 3: is still going to come out on top. Now that's
Speaker 3: different from the price that the Saudi government would like
Speaker 3: oil to be at to balance their budget, which I
Speaker 3: think is really a totally useless figure. People like to
Speaker 3: bring this out, the IMF likes to talk about it,
Speaker 3: but that really doesn't influence the Saudi government all that
Speaker 3: much because the Saudi government isn't selling oil. A Ramco
Speaker 3: sells oil. The Saudi government gets revenue from that oil
Speaker 3: and those oil sales, but they're not actually selling it,
Speaker 3: and so their price point, their break even points are higher,
Speaker 3: and they needed a higher price for their budget.
Speaker 1: Ellen, well, the Atlantic and to excuse me, the Atlantic Council,
Speaker 1: I should say there on the Middle East, single best
Speaker 1: idea and of course on your commute across the nation,
Speaker 1: the idea is to listen to Bloomberg Surveillance in the
Speaker 1: morning on YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts and on YouTube podcasts.
Speaker 1: This is single best idea.