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Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane.

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Speaker 1: Daily we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Paul.

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Speaker 1: We've got to bring in an esteem guest to rap

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Speaker 1: in the politics the international relations with the Marcus Carl

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Speaker 1: Weinberg high frequency economics, with his work over the years

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Speaker 1: O E, C, d I, m F debt workouts internationally,

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Speaker 1: and of course would Lehman a couple of coffees ago

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Speaker 1: as well. Carl, I'm gonna give you an opening salvo.

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Speaker 1: Why should our American listeners care about these EU elections? Well,

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Speaker 1: they really shouldn't care very much about these EU elections

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Speaker 1: unless they happen to be investing in European bonds. And

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Speaker 1: they're worried a little bit about Italy and the license

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Speaker 1: that the Italian government might feel free to take. Now

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Speaker 1: that the populists got a better reading on this go around,

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Speaker 1: the m five star movement is out of it a

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Speaker 1: little bit. The more sane league is in charge. They

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Speaker 1: have a potential new partner, so maybe we'll see some

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Speaker 1: challenges on the budget side from Italy and that could

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Speaker 1: give the bond market a little bit of a shake.

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Speaker 1: That's an investment opportunity for some futures negative five down

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Speaker 1: futures negative fourteen. But the yields are the ten uere

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Speaker 1: yield is two point to nine, yeah, and the ten

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Speaker 1: year yield on bunds is minus fifteen basis points. That's

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Speaker 1: an even more exciting story. You know. That's spread. It

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Speaker 1: will be appealing to some uh and people will look

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Speaker 1: into that, I'm sure. But at the other end of

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Speaker 1: the curve, to me, the German story is what's exciting.

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Speaker 1: We've been talking at high frequency Economics for a long

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Speaker 1: time now about bun yields going negative, about the shortage

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Speaker 1: of bunds in the market, about low and Asian risks

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Speaker 1: in Germany despite a high a very low domestic unemployment

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Speaker 1: rate because of the open borders and the low jobless

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Speaker 1: rate in Europe, and this story is all coming together.

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Speaker 1: It's a very exciting story. But negative Bonnils pods risks

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Speaker 1: for the financial system, and that too is something American

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Speaker 1: investors should be paying attention to. Well, car, what do

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Speaker 1: you think the latest twist in the Brexit negotiations and

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Speaker 1: the EU elections. What does that mean for Brexit in

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Speaker 1: the European economy? And from your perspective, anything changed in

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Speaker 1: the last several days. From your perspective, absolutely nothing. You know,

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Speaker 1: I don't really care who nothing, I don't really care

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Speaker 1: who's Prime Minister. The parliamentary arithmetic isn't changed by any

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Speaker 1: of this. We still have no majority in Parliament and

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Speaker 1: therefore nothing can get done. I quoted to my high

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Speaker 1: frequency economics leaders this weekend Abraham Lincoln, House divided against

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Speaker 1: it how's divided against itself? Cannot stand and at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day, it won't fall. But it has

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Speaker 1: to be all one or all the other in order

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Speaker 1: to persist. And that's where we are in Britain. I

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Speaker 1: think the only way this will be resolved is through

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Speaker 1: national elections and new government, and hopefully someone will win

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Speaker 1: those elections and then we'll have a chance of getting

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Speaker 1: something done on bregsit. How concerned should your readers our

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Speaker 1: listeners be about some of the rising trade tensions over

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Speaker 1: the last several weeks. How do you view that between

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Speaker 1: US and China. Well, there's two aspects to that. The

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Speaker 1: first is that any breaking on world trade through tariffs

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Speaker 1: or trade restrictions or predatory commercial policy, that's all bad

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Speaker 1: for world trade. And anything that's bad for world trade

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Speaker 1: is bad for the world economy. Every time world trade

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Speaker 1: growth dips, something bad happens to world GDP. The other

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Speaker 1: side of the coin is that so far these this

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Speaker 1: war is not all that large. If China lost all

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Speaker 1: of its exports to the United States, all five hundred

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Speaker 1: billion dollars worth, it would cost its GDP three and

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Speaker 1: a half percent once and then it will go right

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Speaker 1: back to growing again where it was before. And it's

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Speaker 1: growing at six and a half percent. China, despite all

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Speaker 1: the stuff you read about in the press, China is

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Speaker 1: not in a recession of any kind. It's growing at

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Speaker 1: six and three quarters percent. For goodness sake, It's doing

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Speaker 1: quite strong enough to be able to withstand the shock.

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Speaker 1: And of course China is not going to lose all

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Speaker 1: of its trade with the US over this. It'll lose

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Speaker 1: just the sliver of it. What is the power dynamic

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Speaker 1: right now between Michigan Washington, the President comes back from Japan.

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Speaker 1: We've seen all the back and forth, Carl, You're deeply

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Speaker 1: experienced it. What is between the lies. Who has the

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Speaker 1: upper hand? Right now, Let's see right now, as I

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Speaker 1: remember from physics, what power is force times distance or

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Speaker 1: something like that, and that implies that something is pushing

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Speaker 1: against something else. And right now, nothing is happening, right

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Speaker 1: nobody's pushing against anyone. But says, okay, wise guy, we're

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Speaker 1: going to go to John Tucker. Can we go to

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Speaker 1: Tony and mechanics this morning? Okay? Look, F equals g

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Speaker 1: F equals g mm. Over our square the two ms

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Speaker 1: of the moon and the sun. What's the mass right

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Speaker 1: now of us blather versus the mass of Chinese silence?

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Speaker 1: So that's right, it's exactly right. China won't talk. That's

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Speaker 1: a very powerful force in an initiation. Alright. So so

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Speaker 1: China right now says, we have our principles, and if

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Speaker 1: you want to bide with these principles, we'd rather endure

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Speaker 1: the pain of the tariffs to achieve our goals, which

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Speaker 1: are modernization and development on our plan. And the Trump

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Speaker 1: administration is frustrated. So President Trump is doing what he

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Speaker 1: has done frequently, what he did with Japan this weekend,

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Speaker 1: what he's doing with China, which is he's saying, we're

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Speaker 1: not ready to make a deal with China. All right,

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Speaker 1: he's disengaging, right China. Beijing won't give President Trump a

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Speaker 1: plank for his reelection platform by giving him a deal

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Speaker 1: on trade. That's just where it is right now. And

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Speaker 1: maybe the next administration, maybe the next Trump administration or whoever,

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Speaker 1: will come in with a more conciliatory view and be

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Speaker 1: willing to work with the Chinese, But this administration isn't

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Speaker 1: in The Chinese aren't buying it. So you don't expect

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Speaker 1: anything over the next year and a half meaningful between

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Speaker 1: US and China. I don't think we'll see any agreement.

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Speaker 1: You know, we may even even just kind of a

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Speaker 1: headline agreement to kind of get it all off the table. Well,

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Speaker 1: the Chinese have drawn a red line in the sand.

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Speaker 1: They said any agreement must include the immediate elimination of

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Speaker 1: all tariffs, and that just ain't going to happen out

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Speaker 1: of this current administration team because people on that team

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Speaker 1: believe incorrectly that the tarifts are exerting an unbearable force

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Speaker 1: on the Chinese economy. And that's not the case. This

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Speaker 1: is uh a thirteen fourteen trillion dollar economy, and you're

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Speaker 1: threatening it with a tax that we're paying on five

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Speaker 1: billion dollars worth of goods that they produce that they

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Speaker 1: can easily sell to somebody else. Right, there's no unbearable

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Speaker 1: force at work here? Well, I can't. This physics is

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Speaker 1: killing me. I feel like it's Sisan Zamanski a few

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Speaker 1: years ago. Okay, if there's an unbearable force, something clears,

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Speaker 1: there's a leakage. There's a leakage within the system, and

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Speaker 1: that is the currency market. Do you have optimism that

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Speaker 1: currency markets could compensate for mistakes made along the way

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Speaker 1: in trade? Well, you know, there are different there can

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Speaker 1: be different views as to where the mistakes are. But

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Speaker 1: I believe that the Chinese should not be How should

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Speaker 1: I say this? We shouldn't deny the risk that China

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Speaker 1: will pursue a devaluation of the yuan against the dollar

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Speaker 1: while maintaining its value against its baskets. It's referenced basket

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Speaker 1: and currencies as a way of offsetting the impact of

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Speaker 1: these tariffs, and that's what we're seeing right now. The

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Speaker 1: trade weighted basket is flat and the yuan is depreciating

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Speaker 1: against the dollar. And this is a perfect storm for

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Speaker 1: the Chinese because every percent that the yuan falls against

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Speaker 1: the dollar. That's less of a burden that the tariffs

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Speaker 1: impose on the prices of goods that are traded. Physics

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Speaker 1: with Carl Weinberg. There it is Tuesday morning, to get

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Speaker 1: your expomoral day started. Carl, thank you so much, great,

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Speaker 1: We appreciate it. It has been a weekend of tumul,

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Speaker 1: particularly for Europe. I guess we knew it. It was

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Speaker 1: all news, but nevertheless there are significant reactions as well.

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Speaker 1: So let's go a little i R here with negative

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Speaker 1: interest rates every more negative in Europe, the Swiss to

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Speaker 1: the year uh now a negative rate again that record lows,

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Speaker 1: but nevertheless there and we can synthesize all this and

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Speaker 1: what it means for Marcus A. Jacob Kirk guard with

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Speaker 1: the Peterson Institute, a senior fellow. But that very uh

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Speaker 1: just barely, I should say, describes how he thought about

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Speaker 1: Europe and what it means for America in all just

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Speaker 1: all sorts of ways to go here, including his work

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Speaker 1: at our house in Denmark in his book Transforming the

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Speaker 1: European Economy. Jacob, let me ask an open question to begin,

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Speaker 1: what is your unique insight of what we saw in

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Speaker 1: these EU elections. What I think, first of all, we

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Speaker 1: should be clear that what it's in some way it's

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Speaker 1: actually signaled was the birth of European democracy, because I

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Speaker 1: think it was the first time you've ever had a

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Speaker 1: European election, which is really kind of twenty eight different

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Speaker 1: elections in member states, yeah, really synthesized into more of

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Speaker 1: a single on and it was really an election that

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Speaker 1: was about, uh, do you want the far right uh

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Speaker 1: to march onwards ever stronger? And I think what we

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Speaker 1: did see was that participation in these elections were about

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Speaker 1: ten percent uh, and therefore we did not see uh,

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Speaker 1: anything like uh you know, we basically had a lot

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Speaker 1: of people turning out against that. And I think that's

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Speaker 1: really the main story. And then there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: implications for different individual countries, but this is the big story,

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Speaker 1: and I bring it over to and I think if

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Speaker 1: your Adam posing at Peterson Institute, the need to provide

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Speaker 1: fiscal liquidity into a system with imploding interest rates. All

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Speaker 1: of our conversations at Bloomberg Surveillance today, is it's still

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Speaker 1: an austere Europe? Is it still austerity across Europe and

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Speaker 1: particularly Germany? I would say much less so actually, because

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Speaker 1: one thing we did see is the one major breakthrough

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Speaker 1: that the far right had was in Italy, where Salvini

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Speaker 1: one big and he's certainly going to propose tax cuts

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Speaker 1: and more fiscal spending. And even in Germany when you

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Speaker 1: look at the German fiscal impulse this year, it's going

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Speaker 1: to be positive to the tune of zero point seven

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Speaker 1: to zero point eight percent of GDP. And obviously McCall

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Speaker 1: in France, who actually, when you look closer at the results,

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Speaker 1: did quite well even if he didn't beat Marine Lepin.

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Speaker 1: UH is also, of course UH promoting fiscal UH stimulus.

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Speaker 1: So I would say that this is not two thousand

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Speaker 1: and twelve. This is Europe in some ways reaping the

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Speaker 1: benefits of perhaps the policy mistakes that were made UH

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Speaker 1: six or seven years ago, by spending some of that

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Speaker 1: fiscal space that the continent has. So, Jacob, what are

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Speaker 1: these elections mean for the Brexit process in the near too,

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Speaker 1: let's say, intermediate term? Well, I think the UK is

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Speaker 1: a classic example of how these elections have really shuffled

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Speaker 1: the national political circumstances in members dates because what we

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Speaker 1: have already seen. What we saw, of course, was that

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Speaker 1: the Labor Party lost almost as much as the Conservative

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Speaker 1: Party did to the Brexit, to Farage's Brexit Party, and

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Speaker 1: Corbin has already been, if you like, absorbing the consequences

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Speaker 1: of that loss to the Liberal Democrats and is moving

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Speaker 1: ever more explicitly into backing a second referendum on Brexit. UM.

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Speaker 1: And if that happens, UH, then I think you basically

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Speaker 1: have a totally bifurcated outlook for the UK. Either you

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Speaker 1: have a no deal Brexit or you have no Brexit

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Speaker 1: at all. And it really comes down to what the

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Speaker 1: majority in the current British Parliament UH will do. And

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Speaker 1: then of course who would be the next leader of

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Speaker 1: the Conservative Party. But there has been this is already

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Speaker 1: a massive in fact on the UK. So again give

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Speaker 1: us your sense of you mentioned a second referendum. There's

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Speaker 1: those that are saying to you, we're at the point

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Speaker 1: now where this might be you know, really the only

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Speaker 1: way to go. Do you think that the second referendum

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Speaker 1: is on the table? Oh? I think it's very much

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Speaker 1: on the table. I think if you look at the

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Speaker 1: outcome of each elections, I think you will see that

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Speaker 1: parties that were explicitly in favor of a second referendum

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Speaker 1: one almost as much as the Conservatives and the Brexit

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Speaker 1: Party combined and the switch vote if you like. It's

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Speaker 1: basically the Labor Party. And you have seen senior Labor officials,

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Speaker 1: including Jeremy Corbyn himself, actually come out and say, well, actually,

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Speaker 1: if we don't do this, we're going to be killed

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Speaker 1: by the Liberal of Democrats in the next UK general election. Jacob,

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Speaker 1: give us a broader picture here in the next few minutes.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we go from Conrad at an hour just

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Speaker 1: to use Germany as a model, a helmet older Schroeder Americle, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: What's the next for Jacob Kirkgard across Europe? I mean,

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Speaker 1: what's what's the next wave in the conservative liberal battle

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Speaker 1: nation to nation in Europe? And frankly you can drag

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Speaker 1: America into it as well. Folks. What do you see

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Speaker 1: as the next political continuum? Well, I think that the

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Speaker 1: first big battle within having Europe is going to be

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Speaker 1: all about who takes the big jobs that are becoming

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Speaker 1: vacant at the presidency of the European Commission and the

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Speaker 1: European Central Bank, etcetera. That's gonna be a big showdown

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Speaker 1: between predominantly France and Germany. Um, and so far, based

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Speaker 1: on these elections, I'd say it's as Mt Cole Uh.

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Speaker 1: I think he gets to choose which are the two

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Speaker 1: jobs he wants, uh basically, and I think he probably

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Speaker 1: will choose the Commission, which means that I am personally

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Speaker 1: uh thinking that proba probably since one of the effects

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Speaker 1: of the increased participation in the European ar is that

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Speaker 1: the uh you know, the the legitimacy of the Switzman

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Speaker 1: process is much in hunt. So I might bet for

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Speaker 1: those jobs will be probably west Ager for Commission president

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Speaker 1: and Jan Spiderman at the CD. I think that's just

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Speaker 1: ever more likely. Does he have to go out and

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Speaker 1: get other nations to join him in voting or his

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Speaker 1: friends just dictate what they want? Oh no, no, no,

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Speaker 1: he's actively courting other count uh. He you know, he

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Speaker 1: had dinner yesterday with the socialist uh premier of Spain.

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Speaker 1: He has been talking to a lot of different countries.

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Speaker 1: So no, no no, no, he's like actively campaigning among the

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Speaker 1: other leaders, also attracting more parties to his new Liberal

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Speaker 1: grouping in the europe In Parliament. So he's still very

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Speaker 1: much on the campaign trail. Whereas you know quite Frankly,

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Speaker 1: Angela Marchol, whose party obviously didn't do very well in Germany,

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Speaker 1: is in my opinion, clearly of the defensive UH following

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Speaker 1: almost a clear Green victory in the German elections. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he's probably getting the Eiffel Tower tickets and the restaurant there,

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Speaker 1: you know, way up. You know, I think it's impossible.

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Speaker 1: I haven't been there. I I we tried to get in,

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Speaker 1: you know, I tried. Francine pulled every string. She couldn't Okay,

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Speaker 1: you know, I couldn't get a Jacob Kirkgard, Thank you

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Speaker 1: so much, just really well time, thrilled to have you

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Speaker 1: with us, with the Peterson and so go to their website.

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Speaker 1: Just really really trenched stuff on EU and and how

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Speaker 1: it redounds back to the United States as well. Lindsay

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Speaker 1: Pigs with us was still she joins us right now, Lindsay,

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Speaker 1: it's a border of economic data. What are you focused

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Speaker 1: on this week? Well, I think the biggest focus will

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Speaker 1: be GP. I think the Street is going to really

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Speaker 1: hone in on whether or not we see a sizeable

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Speaker 1: revision to the start of the year. I don't expect

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Speaker 1: we will. I I do think we'll see maybe a

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Speaker 1: tenth or two shaved off of that top line number,

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Speaker 1: but it really leaves the thesis in place, meaning that

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Speaker 1: growth exceeded expectations at the start of the year, setting

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Speaker 1: the bar high. But when we start to look at

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Speaker 1: the data leading into the second quarter, does appear to

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Speaker 1: be a very short lived above trend positions. Okay, link

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Speaker 1: what you just said in the consumer confidence which we're

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Speaker 1: going to get a snapshot of today and into what

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Speaker 1: we actually see with consumers spending. I mean, does it

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Speaker 1: all dovetail nicely together? No, it doesn't. It used to

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Speaker 1: before back in the day when we looked to consumer

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Speaker 1: confidence and it was strong that generally translated into very

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Speaker 1: robust pssessing duck numbers. We saw retail sales very solid.

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Speaker 1: This time around, we continue to hear that the consumer

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Speaker 1: is confident, that they're feeling good, but their actions aren't

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Speaker 1: matching positive sentiments. And in fact, we've seen retail sales

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Speaker 1: now trend negative for three of the last five months,

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Speaker 1: despite the fact that confident is at multi year highs.

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Speaker 1: So the consumer is saying one thing but doing quite another.

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Speaker 1: So lyndsay, would you is it your opinion that the

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Speaker 1: FED has done a relatively admiral job and kind of

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Speaker 1: engineering kind of what can be characterized as a soft

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Speaker 1: landing growth, still decent inflation, low consumer generally hanging in there.

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Speaker 1: Is that your your take the moment. I think the

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Speaker 1: Fed has done a very good job. I do think

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Speaker 1: that they got a little over their skis last year.

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Speaker 1: They got a little too aggressive with rate hikes. We

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Speaker 1: could have done without the fourth, certainly the fourth, maybe

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Speaker 1: even the third last year. As we see now from

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Speaker 1: market fundamentals that the Fed has pushed beyond neutral and

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Speaker 1: I mean the inversion, the partial inversion of the yield curve.

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Speaker 1: At this point, we do need a rate cut, if

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Speaker 1: not to rate cut, just to right to the slope

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Speaker 1: of the yield curve, let alone, start to give back

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Speaker 1: some of that accommodation to the market to ensure that

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Speaker 1: we do soften the blow from the weakness as we

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Speaker 1: expect going further into so, lindsay, in the first quarter

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Speaker 1: earnings calls, you know, we started to hear more and more,

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Speaker 1: particularly from the retailers, just kind of saying, hey, the

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Speaker 1: trade tensions that are out there that are mounting. Um,

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Speaker 1: it's not necessarily a big issue now, but it's certainly

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Speaker 1: could very well be in the later part of the year.

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Speaker 1: How concerned are you that trade tensions are the lack

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Speaker 1: of any resolution can weigh on the consumer way on

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Speaker 1: the economy. Oh absolutely. Now, when we talk about the

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Speaker 1: tears already implemented, so we look at late into we

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Speaker 1: estimate the tear of shaved off about two tens of

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Speaker 1: a percentage point from GDP. It's so not a significant amount,

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Speaker 1: but as we look out beyond and we expect momentum

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Speaker 1: to wane in terms of top line funny missals, those

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Speaker 1: tents of a percentage point will add up. Now we

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Speaker 1: talk about heightened level of tariffs as well as the

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Speaker 1: threat of an additional round of love is possibly placed

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Speaker 1: in a course Chinese retaliatory action. This is going to

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Speaker 1: compound that negative impact on the economy For businesses. We

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Speaker 1: hear that many at ten percent were able to eat

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Speaker 1: that that cost increase and not pass that on the

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Speaker 1: consumer at This is going to be increasingly difficult. Now again,

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Speaker 1: businesses may not be able to pass that directly on

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Speaker 1: the consumers without the risk of losing market share, but

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Speaker 1: that means that internally they're going to have to find

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Speaker 1: efficiencies and cost reductions, which is likely to translate into

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Speaker 1: income and wage cuts, which again will filter into the

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Speaker 1: economy and indirectly hit the consumer. Lindsay thank you so

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Speaker 1: much as we can started an economic week and again, uh,

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Speaker 1: plethora is there? Is that the right Wordlethora of data

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Speaker 1: coming out later in the week, a real snapshot into

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Speaker 1: the market, and the right to June and those critical

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Speaker 1: I S M numbers as well. There's medicine, there's politics,

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Speaker 1: There's all the big issues we talked about every day.

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Speaker 1: But no one, and I mean no one, has had

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Speaker 1: more effect on families in America than our next guest.

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Speaker 1: His name is Brian Kelly. I don't know what he did.

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Speaker 1: He was on Wall Street doing something to various and

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Speaker 1: he set up a website called The Points Guy to

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Speaker 1: talk about bank cards and frequent flyer miles and change

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Speaker 1: the language and action of every one of us. Mr

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Speaker 1: Kelly joins us. Now, Brian, I want to say thank

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Speaker 1: you again and and just all you've done to make

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Speaker 1: us travel maybe more reasonable. Let's get out of the

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Speaker 1: way the tension between the airlines and the banks right now,

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Speaker 1: what do the banks want in the next twenty four

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Speaker 1: months from the airlines, and what do the airlines want

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Speaker 1: in the next twenty four months from all these charge cards. Well,

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Speaker 1: it's interesting. Delta and m X actually just re up

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Speaker 1: their relationship for the next five years, so we can

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Speaker 1: probably expect to see some new bonuses and even some

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Speaker 1: new credit cards. You know, the banks and the airlines

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Speaker 1: have a pretty cozy relationship. The frequent flyer programs are

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Speaker 1: huge profit centers, so for for for the airlines, the

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Speaker 1: airlines sell billions of dollars worth of miles to the

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Speaker 1: credit card companies, and then of course the credit card

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Speaker 1: companies make a whole ton of money, you know, every

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Speaker 1: time people swipe their cards on the transactions, so it's

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Speaker 1: a pretty profitable ecosystem for everyone. I want to go

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Speaker 1: to your Scott Clark who wrote a brilliant small article

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Speaker 1: on Air New Zealand in Auckland and buried in it.

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Speaker 1: Brian Kelly is the future I see, which is nobody

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Speaker 1: wants to fly economy but they can't afford business class

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Speaker 1: and first class is dead. Tell us about all these

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Speaker 1: new levels to get me out of economy. Well, the

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Speaker 1: big thing is premium economy. Um. The US airlines, you know,

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Speaker 1: the three major US airlines. They used to have fake

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Speaker 1: premium economy where it was basically just a coach seat

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Speaker 1: with a little bit of extra records. I know that

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Speaker 1: I could say this so because Sweeney's six ft three,

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Speaker 1: Brian Kelly's like six seven, and then there's me. But

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Speaker 1: the airline is now Delta, United and American all have

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Speaker 1: real true premium economy that that's rolled out with over

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Speaker 1: the last year, and they're making a ton of money

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Speaker 1: off of it. That they're yielding twice as much from

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Speaker 1: premium economy than they are traditional economy because air fares

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Speaker 1: are still really cheap an economy with so many low

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Speaker 1: cost carriers. So I think the sweet spot for the

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Speaker 1: US airlines is on the premium economy and charging a

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Speaker 1: premium for their you know, the business class suites that

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Speaker 1: we've seen Delta roll out with. So Brian is as

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Speaker 1: much as I love spending my summers on the Jersey Shore,

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Speaker 1: I think I want to go to Europe this summer.

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Speaker 1: Where's the where where do I go? What's the cheapest

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Speaker 1: place to go? Well, Norwegian Era is probably you know,

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Speaker 1: I would look at where Norwegian is flying their their

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Speaker 1: fares are really really low, even for last minute travel. Now,

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Speaker 1: the traditional airlines, you know, no matter where you go, UM,

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Speaker 1: they charge for international flights. You want to be booking

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Speaker 1: at least eight weeks in advance for international. So if

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Speaker 1: you're looking ready for July four, you may be bumping

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Speaker 1: up against some really expensive fares. UM. But yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean I would I would either use your frequent flyer miles,

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Speaker 1: see where the cheapest places that you can go. UM.

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Speaker 1: Some of the airlines like American now have routes to

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Speaker 1: UM Bologna and some other you know, abruptn of Croatia,

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Speaker 1: And on those routes that aren't selling very well, you

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Speaker 1: may be able to use your frequent flyer miles for

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Speaker 1: the cheapest amount possible. So I would say be flexible.

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Speaker 1: Check Norwegian, check your frequent flyer miles. There's there are

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Speaker 1: deals out there, but you need to sniff them out.

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Speaker 1: Visiting on the Bloomberg terminal today, there's a story out

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Speaker 1: there entitled a Rough Summer awaits travelers facing fewer flights

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Speaker 1: and t s A staff. Do you think that's gonna

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Speaker 1: an issue? You know, I think the t s A

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Speaker 1: you know, since the shutdown resumed, I personally, I mean

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Speaker 1: I have pre check and I flight once twice three

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Speaker 1: times a week, and pre check for me has been

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Speaker 1: pretty good. And even I always checked the normal lanes.

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Speaker 1: I don't see it being that bad. What I will

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Speaker 1: say is this summer there's gonna be record travelers. It's

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Speaker 1: all about choosing the right flight time. So we did

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Speaker 1: an analysis of millions of lights, and flights that leave

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Speaker 1: at seven am have a nine chance of leaving and

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Speaker 1: arriving on time or early. So, you know, especially in

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Speaker 1: the New York City airports where air traffic control backs up,

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Speaker 1: I highly recommend seven, eight, nine and ten am flights

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00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,680
Speaker 1: will get you to where you're going on time statistically

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00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 1: the most. And does that included new or Newark and

433
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 1: Newark as well? Yeah? New Work is actually the best

434
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,120
Speaker 1: of those three. So you know, we were talking about

435
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,640
Speaker 1: slicing and dicing of the seats. I mean, I remember day.

436
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 1: You know it's this economy in first class. Are we

437
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 1: going to get to the point where they're almost selling

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00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 1: rows and individual seats because at point when you go

439
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 1: in to kind of pick a seat, it's a lot

440
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 1: more complicated than you used to be. Well, it's interesting

441
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,719
Speaker 1: on upon Airways that they just added their sky couch

442
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:46,919
Speaker 1: as well. Air New Zealand has that where you can

443
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 1: actually buy a pad that you put over the three

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00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 1: seats and economy and you can lay down kind of

445
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,399
Speaker 1: like the poor man's business class. But it's they're actually

446
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 1: doing really well and they're selling a premium too, so

447
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 1: you and if you have kids, you can kind of

448
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 1: lay out in economy because yeah, things are really tight

449
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 1: in the back of the bus. The economy is not

450
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 1: economy anymore. And some of these flights, I mean, how

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00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 1: does you know in this case British Air went in

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00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 1: full disclosure folks when the Gulf stream doesn't work. I'm

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00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,119
Speaker 1: on b A, but but you know, how do they

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00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 1: get away with sixteen hundred twelve dollars for an economy seat?

455
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 1: And they get away with it because somebody's buying it, right,

456
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,440
Speaker 1: someone's buying it and people That's why I say check

457
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,360
Speaker 1: Norwegian Air. Norwegian on the same flights to London last

458
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 1: minute I had to buy and it's you know, their

459
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 1: premium products, you know, seven dollars last minute one way

460
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 1: British Airways in the major carriers, if you buy a

461
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:40,160
Speaker 1: one way ticket or if you're buying a last minute

462
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,360
Speaker 1: they gouge you because they know, you know, they're hoping

463
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,920
Speaker 1: to get the business travelers whose corporate departments will pay

464
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 1: whatever fee, and they're not going to put them on Norwegian,

465
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 1: but truly Norwegian and Economy with free WiFi. It's a

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00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 1: seven eighties seven newer plane. It's actually a better experience.

467
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 1: So I know, I'm the points guy. I'm all about,

468
00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:59,160
Speaker 1: you know, get points. You know, if you're an American

469
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 1: frequent flyer, you may want to get your b A

470
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 1: you know, credit for the b A flight, but sometimes

471
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 1: it's just not worth it, especially when you're paying double

472
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:09,120
Speaker 1: or triple the price for Economy. It's not that much different.

473
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 1: What are some of the popular destinations this summer that

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00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 1: you're seeing? There're anything unusual that people were just saying, Hey,

475
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 1: this is a new place to go. You know, I

476
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:21,920
Speaker 1: think Iceland's dying down a little bit, especially since Waware collapsed,

477
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 1: although we still see huge demand there. Um and you know,

478
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 1: the dollar is still relatively strong, so this this year,

479
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 1: Europe is still a top destination for travelers. Um, but

480
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:38,679
Speaker 1: we're still seeing places like Croatia, um and uh, you know,

481
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 1: Italy is still a really top destination. So there's nowhere

482
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 1: off really off the wall that we're seeing, you know,

483
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 1: all the top destinations in Europe. What's the trend you

484
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 1: see Pacific? I mean we talk Atlantic here because we're

485
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:52,680
Speaker 1: based in New York, But what's the trend you see

486
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 1: in Pacific this year for American listeners, Brian Kelly, Well,

487
00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:00,439
Speaker 1: I mean for trends Pacific travel, we're seeing. Um. Actually,

488
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 1: one of the interesting things we're seeing first class going

489
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 1: away altogether. So airlines is getting rid of their first

490
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 1: class UM. But interestingly there's a new low cost carrier

491
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:15,119
Speaker 1: coming out of Soul. The founder of Botox is starting

492
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:20,439
Speaker 1: his own airline, perfect for me. UM. So yeah, I

493
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,399
Speaker 1: think the similar thing that we've seen in the Transatlantic,

494
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 1: with low cost carriers coming in, less of the first

495
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 1: class and more. You know these these uh and even

496
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 1: Catholic Pusific has gotten rid of first class in some flights,

497
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 1: but you know, air fas are still really cheap. We're

498
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 1: seeing Hong Kong Airlines has entered the market really strongly.

499
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:40,119
Speaker 1: We're seeing under five dollars you can go from the

500
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:43,159
Speaker 1: East Coast to Hong Kong. So even though you know

501
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:44,640
Speaker 1: it is a fit in the back of the bus,

502
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 1: there are still amazing affairs out there, give us the

503
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 1: sick first class fancy fancy Brian Kelly, Where you flew

504
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 1: somewhere for twelve dollars? What's the latest, Brian Kelly in

505
00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 1: my book, So this is a tip I'll give you. Know.

506
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 1: Whenever airlines announced new flights, whenever they put them up

507
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 1: for sale, generally they're a really cheap Award miles tickets.

508
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 1: So this fall Delta December twenty second, they start flying

509
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 1: JFK to Mumbai and it's a you know, nine thousand

510
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 1: dollar round trip flight, and I gotta I'm flying one

511
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 1: way for a hundred thirty five thousand SNY miles, which

512
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 1: if you use Delta miles to go New York to

513
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:25,160
Speaker 1: India in their Delta one suite is a screaming deal.

514
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:27,360
Speaker 1: So I was pretty proud of that one. But he's

515
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 1: got to get back. Yeah, but you know, so you could.

516
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:32,639
Speaker 1: That's the beauty of miles that you can book one

517
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 1: way on Delta. I'm actually gonna be going to the Maldives,

518
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna fly Emirates home from there because you know,

519
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 1: we just we just wish we had his life. And

520
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 1: I'll be on the guards. Brian Kelly go away. The

521
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: points guy I can't say enough about. And of course

522
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 1: one of the great charms of Brian Kelly is he

523
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 1: is always said responsible use of charge cards, that is

524
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 1: the way to go. He did that right from the beginning.

525
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 1: Can't say enough about his impact. Thanks for listening to

526
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on

527
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm

528
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast. You can

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00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio