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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we.

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Speaker 1: Go fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five forty twenty

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Speaker 1: five fifty and the.

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Speaker 3: Kick is block the college football World standard. Oh my goodness,

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Speaker 3: he's stumbled the football. The lateral turn, the corner on

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Speaker 3: the eisod.

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Speaker 2: Don't you believe I came him up the field the night.

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Speaker 3: It's not the side of the dog in the fighting,

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Speaker 3: it's the size of the fight in the doll.

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Speaker 1: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 1: on Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM. This is the

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Speaker 1: Week eleven college football betting preview. I'm stuck joining me

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Speaker 1: as always is Colin Wilson. A lot of excitement in

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Speaker 1: the air for this slate. Colin just opened a pack

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Speaker 1: of cards and got an Emmett Moorhead. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if that's a sign to I think it's a sign

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Speaker 1: of bit bobtack. We'll talk about that game later. What's

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Speaker 1: going on?

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Speaker 2: Colin? Cracking some bowl? And Chrome's waiting to do this

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Speaker 2: with you because I feel like it's gonna be a

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Speaker 2: little spicy. But I mean, we didn't put Colorado Arizona

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Speaker 2: up in the whole Marquee matchups, like, we don't really

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Speaker 2: we had in a lot, a whole bunch of time

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Speaker 2: for it. But I have a feeling it's gonna be spicy,

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Speaker 2: So I'm excited. I'm looking forward to it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna go. We decided that we're gonna start

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Speaker 1: keeping track of the head to heads. We'll play for

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Speaker 1: a steak dinner and we'll keep tracking. Who's some years

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Speaker 1: Collins ahead of me, some years I'm ahead of him.

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Speaker 1: So I think it'll just add some fun to the podcast.

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Speaker 1: But we have a lot to get to today. We'll

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Speaker 1: do some look ahead or look away. In just a second,

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Speaker 1: we get to four marquee games. We will go through

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Speaker 1: six more in rapid fire, have some trash talk, Friday

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Speaker 1: Night lights, favorite underdogs and overdogs. Colin's got some San

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Speaker 1: Diego State overs, Arkansas Fat. We hit like twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five games. So let's get right into it. Let's start

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Speaker 1: with some look ahead or look away hangovers, sleepers, and

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Speaker 1: the dreaded sandwich spot.

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Speaker 2: Is it time to look ahead or look away?

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Speaker 1: This is where we look at last week's schedule, next

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Speaker 1: week's schedule and determine if there's any impact with a

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Speaker 1: potential situational spot or how teams will handle this week's game.

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Speaker 1: So let's start with Texas Tech traveling to Lawrence to

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Speaker 1: take on Kansas, who was in the thick of the

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Speaker 1: Big twelve race. If someone slips up Kansas three and

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Speaker 1: a half ish point favorite, took some money, might have

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Speaker 1: been getting dummy came back down. I personally like Texas

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Speaker 1: Tech here, It's one of my favorite bets league. But

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Speaker 1: I will admit that Texas Tech is probably one of

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Speaker 1: the most difficult teams to power rate in the entire country.

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Speaker 1: If you look at their body of work, you know,

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Speaker 1: you had the number one. They could have started out

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Speaker 1: six and zero. So they were supposed to compete for

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Speaker 1: the Big twelve title. They lost to Oregon, you know

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Speaker 1: in the final minute. They lost a double overtime to Wyoming,

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Speaker 1: and they had just a very unlucky start to the year.

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Speaker 1: And then they had quarterback injuries. He lose Shuck and

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Speaker 1: then Morton is basically playing with a ac joint injury.

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Speaker 1: He can't he can't throw the ball down field. That

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Speaker 1: in West Virginia. I mean, I don't know why they

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Speaker 1: kept him in. And then he played a couple more

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Speaker 1: games hurt, but I mean against BYU, they played the

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Speaker 1: third string quarterback is awful, Jake Strong. They out gained

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Speaker 1: them three eighty nine to two seventy seven, but they

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Speaker 1: had five turnovers. Well you know, third stringth through three picks.

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Speaker 1: They same thing out in West Virginia. A bunch of

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Speaker 1: turnovers out gained them. So they're hard to really get

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Speaker 1: a hold of. But I think this is the peak

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Speaker 1: of the market. On Kansas. Morton looked fantastic last week,

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Speaker 1: actually making all the throws. He sat out a couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks. They say he's fully healthy. Now. Texas Tech's

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Speaker 1: run defense has been very good. That's the foundation of

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Speaker 1: everything Kansas wants to do. Their top ten EPA run

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Speaker 1: d So you know this is a huge game for

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech. They get the ball eligibility. I think that's

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Speaker 1: why they brought Morton back, and luckily he did book

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Speaker 1: healthy Kansas two big wins as underdogs. They have Kansas

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Speaker 1: State on deck. I just think the Texas Tech will

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Speaker 1: be able to move the ball you're on the ground,

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Speaker 1: through the air. With a healthy Morton, I'll take anything

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Speaker 1: over a field goal wreck them. What do you see here?

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Speaker 2: Anything yeah, I agree with you because all I saw

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Speaker 2: last week, by the way extra day arrest here for

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Speaker 2: Texas Tech is what they did to TCU is just

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Speaker 2: explosive player for explosive tc you couldn't stop anything. And

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Speaker 2: you know that, not too surprised what the horn Frogs

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Speaker 2: are able to do. But Kansas kind of has a

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Speaker 2: similar issue. Like they are one hundred and fourteenth in

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Speaker 2: defensive quality drives. They allow everyone to score touchdowns instead

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Speaker 2: of field goals. They don't tackle very well, and I

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Speaker 2: think the big question that you always look at with

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Speaker 2: Kansas's will the Texas Tech defense be fooled by the

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Speaker 2: heavy motion, the guys that are the formations, all the

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Speaker 2: different things that they do on offense. According to last

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Speaker 2: year's game, the answers, No, it was a very comfortable

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Speaker 2: win by Texas Tech. They really turned it on the

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Speaker 2: second half and the fourth quarter specifically. So when you

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Speaker 2: look at Joey Joey McGuire and Lance Bipoled head to head,

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Speaker 2: it's obviously Texas Tech. So I think they're gonna get

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Speaker 2: hot here at the end of the year. You get

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Speaker 2: Central Florida next week. Who knows what they can do

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Speaker 2: against Texas in the end, you know, who knows what

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Speaker 2: bowl positioning they're going to be playing for. But this

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Speaker 2: is a team I think is on the rise, So

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Speaker 2: I'm going to back you with Texas Tech. I agree

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Speaker 2: on the dominating the number though, it's a number that

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Speaker 2: I made three and a half, but I would expect

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Speaker 2: this to come down to three. We'll see. I'll keep

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Speaker 2: my eye on it. We definitely want to.

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Speaker 1: Get the best Texas Texa buy on team. I mean,

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Speaker 1: like there their run offense has also been good too

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Speaker 1: with quarterback injuries, Like if you look at some of

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Speaker 1: the rush metrics and they basically couldn't throw it down field.

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Speaker 1: I mean if they were playing with a third string

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Speaker 1: quarterback turning it over like five times a game for

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Speaker 1: a couple of weeks, and then they were playing with

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Speaker 1: their second string Morton, who actually you really like with

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Speaker 1: a with a bum shoulder. So like their offensive even

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Speaker 1: and they were still putting up like four hundred yards,

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Speaker 1: but they were like just dunking it thinking dunk running.

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Speaker 1: But now with the healthy Morton, they finally got the

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Speaker 1: explosive passing aspect they'll be able to run on Kansas.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I think that this is goodbye low cell

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Speaker 1: high spot. It's time to buy the Red Raiders. Let's

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Speaker 1: go to Rutgers at Iowa. Game of the weekend. Total

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Speaker 1: down to twenty eight, lowest ever between two FBS teams.

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Speaker 1: Rutgers has Penn State on deck. Big sandwich spot here.

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Speaker 1: You know, they just came off that game against Ohio

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Speaker 1: State where they kept settling for field goals and eventually

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Speaker 1: threw a pick six. By the way, Kansas has two

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Speaker 1: pick sixes over the last two weeks, so they've definitely

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Speaker 1: getting a little couple of bounces that they might not

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Speaker 1: get this week. Iowa one point favorite here. I can't

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Speaker 1: bet you. I can't put an under twenty eight. I

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Speaker 1: make it twenty nine, So I think it's a decent number.

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Speaker 1: You just need everything to go right. But I don't

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Speaker 1: neither team gives up explosives. Neither team has explosives this

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Speaker 1: on offense. There might be zero exploded plays in this game,

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Speaker 1: you know. And there's a good big punter leg it's

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Speaker 1: be bad field position. It's gonna come down to, like

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Speaker 1: just to pick six or make mistakes. Rutgers, I trust

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Speaker 1: their offense to just like run it more with Wimsatin Company.

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Speaker 1: Think that's probably the difference because I was run to

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Speaker 1: He's been a little vulnerable if you look under the hood.

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Speaker 1: So I'll probably throw Rutgers in a round robin I

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Speaker 1: got I mean, this game is I mean, if this

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Speaker 1: game goes under, what's Iowa? Nebraska's gonna be twenty seven?

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Speaker 1: Next week? We're in a couple of I mean, geez,

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Speaker 1: what do you got here?

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Speaker 2: Anything, We're just gonna keep pushing it until it finally

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Speaker 2: has an overcot. I mean, it's gonna be no one's

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Speaker 2: even gonna notice when Army Navy play each other in

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Speaker 2: the totals like thirty one, because I was just blowing

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Speaker 2: this away every week. I do like Rutgers, like you,

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Speaker 2: but you know, they have a much more methodical offense

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Speaker 2: and a much higher rate and quality drives and and

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Speaker 2: the way you want to attack the Iowa defense is

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Speaker 2: on the ground and not through the air. Iowa's number

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Speaker 2: one in defensive coverage or number one in limiting big

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Speaker 2: plays through the air. That's not what Rutgers is going

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Speaker 2: to do. So Rutgers is much more successful on the ground.

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Speaker 2: But what I love is that they're seventh and havoc allowed.

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Speaker 2: They don't beat themselves a lot of teams beat themselves.

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Speaker 2: We'll talk about Cincinnati later, but a lot of teams

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Speaker 2: beat themselves, and Rubbers is not one of them. So

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Speaker 2: I expect them to be able to run the ball,

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Speaker 2: be methodical, get into scoring position. I don't know how

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Speaker 2: many points are going to come out of this. IH

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Speaker 2: power rate it in the low thirties, but I like

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Speaker 2: ruppers are in the spot too.

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Speaker 1: All right. Moving on to a game with a little

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Speaker 1: more juice to it. Tennessee was Georgia. Next week will

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Speaker 1: travel to Missouri, who's coming off a game against Georgia.

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Speaker 1: So you got a lot of Georgia, a lot of

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Speaker 1: Georgia angles here. I think it definitely works in Tennessee's

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Speaker 1: favor here in that Tennessee played Yukon last week. They did,

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Speaker 1: didn't They just got off the bus through a couple

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Speaker 1: passes and went to sleep, and then Missouri was in

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Speaker 1: a battle with Georgia. Was really impressed with Missouri. I

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Speaker 1: mean it's like EPA perspectives. They were better overall. Again,

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Speaker 1: they just red zone and turnovers. But like what, it

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Speaker 1: got to be exhausted after that game. Tennessee's going to

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Speaker 1: be much more well rested Bok Tennessee. Everything starts with

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Speaker 1: their running backs to three head of monster in the backfield.

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Speaker 1: Missouri's run he's been really good, so that's definitely a

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Speaker 1: question for Tennessee. It's like strength on strength, and then

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Speaker 1: like is Milton you get good Milton. We've seen flashes

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Speaker 1: of Milton, We've seen bad Milton. But I can't get behind.

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Speaker 1: I show a tad bit of value on Missouri, but

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Speaker 1: the spot isn't great. And Luther Burton, I mean this

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Speaker 1: is before justin for Luther Burton, I don't know number

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Speaker 1: one is gonna play and if he is, his Paine

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Speaker 1: un one hundred percent healthy, and that's massive. I mean

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Speaker 1: that is like changes the entire dynamic of their offense.

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Speaker 1: Not only is one of the best receivers in the country,

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Speaker 1: could argue he's the best, but he just he then

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Speaker 1: he gets he draws so much attention that it opens

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Speaker 1: up everything else for Wes and Cooper. So and I

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Speaker 1: don't think Missouri will be able to get much on

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Speaker 1: the ground. So like it's if you don't have a

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Speaker 1: fully healthy burden, it changes everything with this offense. So

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Speaker 1: I can't get behind Missouri. This is a pass for me.

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Speaker 1: I think you like Tennessee here.

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Speaker 2: I love Tennessee here. I think Missouri emptied the chamber.

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Speaker 2: I don't think they have anything left in him. And

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Speaker 2: Luther Burden being hurt, I don't think that's being let

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Speaker 2: on exactly how hurt he is. He plays in the slot.

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Speaker 2: He's the most dynamic, best slot and you're going to

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Speaker 2: see him on your NFL screens coming up in the future.

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Speaker 2: But when you take him away, that allows you to

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Speaker 2: double team the OIZ and some of the guys on

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Speaker 2: the outside, and that's going to be bad. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Tennessee is no slack in coverage whatsoever. They're twenty seventh

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Speaker 2: in the nation. You know, they're on target rates in

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Speaker 2: the top fifty. And Missouri not only do I think

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Speaker 2: that they just kind of unloaded against Georgia, not just

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Speaker 2: emotionally but physically, and they're kind of beat up? Are

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Speaker 2: they the LSU of the East Division? I mean the

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Speaker 2: defense we said this last week, why I had our time,

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Speaker 2: I wanted to bet them. The numbers said I should

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Speaker 2: have bet him. I should have bet them. But their

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Speaker 2: defense is so leaky outside the top one hundred and

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Speaker 2: finishing drives. Defensively, they're outside the top one hundred and

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Speaker 2: allowing the big play eighty seventh. The quality drives defensively.

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Speaker 2: If you get on La laid down, if you can

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Speaker 2: protect a quarterback and move methodically, you could beat Missouri

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Speaker 2: sure enough. Tennessee thirteenth and havoc allowed. I don't see

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Speaker 2: any pressure getting on Joe Milton whatsoever. Missouri's forty six

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Speaker 2: in the nation and creating pressures, But Tennessee also offensive

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Speaker 2: line has been fantastic at keeping him clean, so they've

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Speaker 2: on there that the sixteenth lowest pressures allowed so far

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Speaker 2: this year. So I think there's just too many advantages

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Speaker 2: from the ground game, from the past game. And then defensively,

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Speaker 2: I don't trust Missouri whatsoever. I love the team. They've

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Speaker 2: already eclipsed their win total. I'll be happy to bet

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Speaker 2: them when they're healthy again, especially with Luther Burton. But

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Speaker 2: this is a Tennessee player all the way. I love

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Speaker 2: the spot. I don't think they're overlooking it because they

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Speaker 2: know they have to have this game to have that

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Speaker 2: competition with Georgia.

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Speaker 1: Let's Stanford at Oregon State. Oregon State has Washington in

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Speaker 1: Corvallis next weekend. This is in Corvallis as well. Oregon

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Speaker 1: State never loses in organ It's gonna be Washington next week,

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Speaker 1: by the way, but we'll talk about that next week.

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Speaker 1: Before that, Oregon State has to worry about AI Stanford

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Speaker 1: team that's been a little better than a lot of

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Speaker 1: people in the market expected. Oregon State laying pretty big

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Speaker 1: number here. Can they just run their way to a cover?

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Speaker 1: What do you see here?

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Speaker 2: Advice for anybody that took Stanford under three with me,

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Speaker 2: like back in May, might want to a Stanford money

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Speaker 2: line here, like I don't know, put twenty five bucks

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Speaker 2: on it. And so how is this team winning all

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Speaker 2: these games? Beating Washington State? I mean, we're gonna get

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Speaker 2: to them later. There are corpse There is nothing mathematically

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Speaker 2: or statistically that says that Stanford's going to be able

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Speaker 2: to hang here. Yet they keep getting themselves involved in games,

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Speaker 2: you know, getting in with Washington, beating Washington State. They're overachieving.

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Speaker 2: And I always say this in November. I love first

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Speaker 2: year coaches to pull off unbelievable upstates in the month

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Speaker 2: of November because teams don't quit on first year coaches.

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Speaker 2: They almost never do. But stuck. I mean, mathematically statistically,

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Speaker 2: I can't make a case for Stanford. I think the

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Speaker 2: number is exactly right to make it twenty one. But

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Speaker 2: at the same time, I mean, how do you It's

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Speaker 2: like last year, you know, in South Carolina and November

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Speaker 2: started beating teams that were asleep at the wheel at

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Speaker 2: Vanderbilt started beating teams in November that we're asleep at

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Speaker 2: the wheel. This thing, these things just happened with these

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Speaker 2: teams that just have no path and Stanford is definitely

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Speaker 2: that team. So Oregon State's definitely on over overlook alert

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Speaker 2: to Washington.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, all right, so the only thing

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Speaker 1: with Stanford is that if you look at rush success rate,

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Speaker 1: the only teams that are allowing above a fifty percent,

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Speaker 1: which is horrible on rushing plays UMass, Washington Western, Kentucky,

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Speaker 1: San Diego State, UAB, who is the worst by far

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Speaker 1: in Stanford. So they're run he's been bad. And then

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Speaker 1: you might say, look, we'll talk about let's talk about

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Speaker 1: Washington State, Cow real quick. We'll get that out of

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Speaker 1: the way. Now we're gonna do that rundown. You might say, oh, look,

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Speaker 1: well Stanford's defense last week they shut down Washington State,

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Speaker 1: So what is going on. Washington State. This offense that

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Speaker 1: was so explosive over in the air and now they

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Speaker 1: can't score. This is an air ray. They wanted to

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Speaker 1: be a downfield array. This is an rip to the goat.

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Speaker 1: Mike Leach, what was the kryptonite to the arraid? Drop eighty.

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Speaker 1: So all these certain teams, there are certain teams that

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Speaker 1: won't do it. It's not their identity. Oregon won't drop eight.

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Speaker 1: They play a lot of men. They didn't drop eight.

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Speaker 1: And Washington State's offense look great Arizona, all they did

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Speaker 1: was drop eight. Ucla just dropped eight, yep and Stanford

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Speaker 1: last week just dropped eight. And Washington State number one.

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Speaker 1: They're the most past happy team in the country. They

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Speaker 1: can't run it either, and they're you know, they're starting running.

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Speaker 1: They have some freshman kid in there, like I don't know,

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Speaker 1: eight carries for for like thirteen carris with thirty yards

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Speaker 1: last week, they can't run it. Stanford dropped eight. Washington

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Speaker 1: State has no answer. They don't know what to do.

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Speaker 1: They're all they're talking about it. There's not they're done.

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Speaker 1: It's it's as long as you drop eight, that's all

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Speaker 1: you gotta figure out. With a with a and Cal

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Speaker 1: does that a lot anyway. They just like, there gonna

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Speaker 1: exposive plays and then Cal ship you can run all

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Speaker 1: over Washington State because it on any linebackers. So that's

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Speaker 1: if you're wondering what's happened with Washington State, that's it.

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Speaker 1: It's an old air raid problem. Remember the time when

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Speaker 1: Missippi State played LSU and then on the opener and

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Speaker 1: LSU tried to play straight man, like what was Remember that?

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Speaker 1: And then you know the next week someone was like,

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Speaker 1: all right, I'm gonna drop eight. The offense looks night

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Speaker 1: and day, and everyone in the Pac twelve has figured out, oh,

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Speaker 1: just drop eight. Some teams won't do it, and they

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Speaker 1: refuse to do it, and that's when Washington State's offense

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Speaker 1: will look explosive and they'll put up a ton of points.

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Speaker 1: I assume Cal is just gonna drop eight here. It's

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Speaker 1: in line with what they want to do philosophic and

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Speaker 1: they should able to run it. Cows to play there, right, Oh.

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Speaker 2: I'm I'm on Cal. I'll just say on the other

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Speaker 2: side of the ball, Washing State can't defend the run whatsoever.

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Speaker 2: They cannot keep teams from scoring touchdowns instead of field goals.

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Speaker 2: They've lost at home, you know, to Stanford, and they

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Speaker 2: made five straight. Jade not is fully healthy right now,

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Speaker 2: full strength past two games against USC and Oregon. So

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm I'm all in against against Washington State

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Speaker 2: and betting on Cal this week. I mean, they just

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Speaker 2: played four top twenty five teams in a row, brutally

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Speaker 2: beaten down. They were competitive in a couple of them,

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Speaker 2: but I mean, when you play four top twenty five

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Speaker 2: teams in a row, it's going to affect your power rating,

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Speaker 2: it's going to affect everybody's perception of what you are.

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Speaker 2: But Cal has the advantages here in this game. They're

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Speaker 2: not a corpse.

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Speaker 1: Washing State is, yeah, and yeah, I fully trust that

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Speaker 1: will Cox will drop eighty. That's what that's his philosophy. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: take away the big play. But yeah, I mean Washington

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Speaker 1: State against teams that have dropped eight recently. They lost

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Speaker 1: forty four to six Arizona. They lost twenty five to

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Speaker 1: seventeen against UCLA, and in that game, Washington State had

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Speaker 1: eleven first downs two hundred total yards. Usually I have

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Speaker 1: five hundred yards of offense, so like that score was misleading.

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Speaker 1: And then they lost ten seven at home to Stanford,

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Speaker 1: who just dropped eight one. Last one here before we

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Speaker 1: get to the marquee matchups that everyone including myself is

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Speaker 1: itching to talk about. Iowa State Texas on deck. They

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Speaker 1: just they come off a really deflating loss to Kansas

349
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Speaker 1: at BYU, Slovas will be out again. I hate this

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Speaker 1: BAU team. They have a bunch of fraudulent wins. They

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Speaker 1: kind of got exposed last week. They're catching what's seven

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Speaker 1: and a half here at home. Iowa State's offense is

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Speaker 1: just not efficient though, like they have to hit some

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Speaker 1: explosive plays. They're not efficient the down to down basis.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, but you should be able to run

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Speaker 1: regardless of b YU. Their front is so bad. This

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Speaker 1: is a pure stay away for me. Do you have

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Speaker 1: anything here?

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Speaker 2: It is a stay away for me because I think

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Speaker 2: the number is a little bit too high. I make

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Speaker 2: it seven, so eight. I'm not buying on this. But

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Speaker 2: how do you trust the BYU team that scored thirteen

363
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Speaker 2: points or last two weeks against West Virginia and Texas.

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Speaker 2: The problem is is Iowa State where they're good, is

365
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Speaker 2: the only signs of life that you have out of

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Speaker 2: BYU Like they they do create explosives and standard downs.

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Speaker 2: By's actually been pretty good at stopping that. You know,

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Speaker 2: BYU's defense is top fifty in hard stops and stopping

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Speaker 2: offensive momentum and methodicals, which is where Iowa State kind

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Speaker 2: of just prods along the field. They're not explosive whatsoever.

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Speaker 2: So there's just a lot of the couple of things

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Speaker 2: BYU does right is where Iowa State is offensively. So

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to play this. I think eight on

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Speaker 2: the road in altitude with an overlook. I've been a

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Speaker 2: pass on playing Iowa day, but I mean, I think

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Speaker 2: they're a player here going down the stretch because of

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Speaker 2: that three three five defense and just the way that

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Speaker 2: they're coached up. You know, that's a really tough defense.

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Speaker 2: The stack that doesn't react to motion. You can't get

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Speaker 2: a read on them. It's a tough look as a

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Speaker 2: quarterback if you've never seen it before. So I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Maybe the under is to play in this game.

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Speaker 1: I don't mind the under. That would be my only

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Speaker 1: look there before we get to the Marquee games. As

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Speaker 1: a reminder, the BBOC podcast centered by VETMGM use bonus

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00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:22,879
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388
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Speaker 1: bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois and Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

389
00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:34,520
Speaker 1: in Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

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00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:36,920
Speaker 1: Terms of conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

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00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:41,040
Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: get to the marquee matchups of the day. It's another

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Speaker 1: fabulous weekend of college football.

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Speaker 2: Let's check out the marquee matchups.

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Speaker 3: We'll all end up betting for week eleven.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's start Neon Eastern on Fox, Michigan four

397
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Speaker 1: and a half point favorites over under forty five and

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Speaker 1: a half. I can't wait to talk about this game.

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Speaker 1: I like Penn State. So before I get my reasoning,

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Speaker 1: I don't understand that.

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Speaker 2: Oh I forgot my wing today.

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Speaker 1: I put my clown head hair on. All right, so

403
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Speaker 1: I'm gonna recommend Penn State. I'm owing three on Penn

404
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:27,000
Speaker 1: State sids this year. And let's go over why I

405
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Speaker 1: like Penn State here. All right, So first of all,

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Speaker 1: I will say that Michigan's a very difficult team to

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Speaker 1: pinpoint just how good they are. They played essentially nobody

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Speaker 1: so far. So I've talked to a couple people who

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Speaker 1: I really respect who make this line three, which is

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Speaker 1: where I make it, and then I talk to people

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Speaker 1: that I really respect, including you, that make it around six. Right, So,

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Speaker 1: and because it comes down to like, oh, you're beating

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Speaker 1: these teams so bad, but you should and then how

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Speaker 1: much how good are they? And you don't have really

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Speaker 1: strong data points bot if it's based on priors and

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Speaker 1: then adjustments throughout the year, and people handle it differently

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Speaker 1: when you're not playing great teams. So where are the

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Speaker 1: cracks on this Michigan team? So when I look at

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Speaker 1: this number one, the offensive line is not as good

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Speaker 1: as last year. Drake Nugent excellent center. I think he's

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Speaker 1: a slight downgrade from Oulowa Timmy at center, but he's

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Speaker 1: still excellent. Ziner's still there and he's excellent at one

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Speaker 1: guard spot. Kegan's at the other guard spot. So but

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Speaker 1: he struggles. But the tackles are the big question. Barnhart

425
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Speaker 1: was the weak point last year. He's still there. Right tackle.

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Speaker 1: Ladarius Henderson the Arizona State transfer has not been good.

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Speaker 1: He replaced Ryan Hayes who's now on the Dolphins. He

428
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,520
Speaker 1: got drafted there. Big drop off, So the tackles aren't

429
00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 1: as good. And if you look last year, McCarthy's been

430
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,719
Speaker 1: great under pressure this year, but he's they played nobody

431
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:50,400
Speaker 1: last year under pressure. His numbers dropped precipitously. So what's

432
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 1: gonna happen? By the way, because the offensive line's had

433
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:54,440
Speaker 1: a drop off, the running game has not been as good.

434
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:56,520
Speaker 1: I mean, they couldn't get They haven't got a push

435
00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 1: number of times throughout this year. They did last year

436
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,120
Speaker 1: against Penn State. Their run game was so much better.

437
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 1: And Penn State spent their entire defensive line because of

438
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,479
Speaker 1: that game, spent the entire offseason bulking up, so they

439
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 1: have a lot more bulk up front. They all added

440
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:13,880
Speaker 1: like ten to fifteen pounds. But this offensive line going

441
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:18,680
Speaker 1: up against an edge rush that could get back chop Robinson,

442
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 1: he's gonna be a first round draftic defense ven I

443
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 1: think he's gonna play from what I've seen and heard,

444
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:28,399
Speaker 1: that's enormous. You know, Abdul Carter, he's a great pass rusher.

445
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 1: Sutton and Isaac off the edge are great. I think

446
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,200
Speaker 1: you're gonna get van over back as well, tons of depth.

447
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 1: The Michigan goes slow, you can rotate. I think they're

448
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:37,280
Speaker 1: gonna get pressure on the outside in this Michigan run

449
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,479
Speaker 1: game is just not there right now. It's been all

450
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:42,440
Speaker 1: McCarthy edwards. I don't think is fully healthy. The offensive

451
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:44,679
Speaker 1: line isn't run blocking as well as it did last year,

452
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 1: drop off at the tackle spots. So I look at

453
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 1: Penn State's secondary from it's excellent number one success. Right,

454
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:55,479
Speaker 1: the only blemish is Marvin Harrison getting thrown the ball

455
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:57,399
Speaker 1: million times, and no one's gonna stop Marvin Harrison. Michigan

456
00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 1: doesn't have a Marvin Harrison. So I think this Penn

457
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 1: State eve it's can get pressure. And this is just

458
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,560
Speaker 1: a big step up in class for Michigan, right, going

459
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 1: from playing clowns, speaking of clowns for nine weeks, and

460
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:11,639
Speaker 1: then going on the road in the hostile environment to

461
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 1: play a team that's kind of in your weight class,

462
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a shock to the system, right, going

463
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:17,440
Speaker 1: up against these kind of athletes, and you got it,

464
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:19,639
Speaker 1: You're gonna have to adjust. So we know with these

465
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,440
Speaker 1: offensive line issues, there could be some communication issues early on.

466
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,360
Speaker 1: And look, McCarthy's been excellent. I have to give him credit.

467
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 1: He's been great. The wide receivers have been great, the

468
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,640
Speaker 1: tight ends have been great. But I think Penn State

469
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 1: can match up, can get pressure, and this Michigan rush

470
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 1: offense is not gonna have nowhere near the success that

471
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,199
Speaker 1: they had last year in this game. On the other

472
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,320
Speaker 1: side of the ball, what can Penn State do. I

473
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna get I don't think either team's

474
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:44,919
Speaker 1: gonna have much sucess running it. The Penn State tackles

475
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:49,360
Speaker 1: have been great, but the interior has been bad. I mean,

476
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:52,879
Speaker 1: like their center Norzad he's been bad, Wormly at guards

477
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 1: been bad, but fashion New and Wallace they've been great

478
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,919
Speaker 1: in pass protection on the outside, and you know they

479
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 1: can handle I think Harold Moore, Stuart McGregor, a all

480
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 1: all those pass rushers. So when I look at the

481
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 1: tackle matchups against these great edge rushers, I think Penn

482
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 1: State at home is going to have the edge. I

483
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 1: don't think either team's gonna run the ball. I mean,

484
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 1: you're not going to get Michigan has Grant Jenkins in

485
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 1: the middle, lay of just Houses and then you're you're

486
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 1: playing in front of Colson and Barrett and Penn State

487
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 1: hasn't been a run up bit anyway. I don't think

488
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 1: either team's gonna get much unning, so con pensate throw

489
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 1: the ball. This Michigan secondary is very good. They lost

490
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 1: a couple of pros. They haven't been tested at all.

491
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 1: I mean, look at who who's the best passing offense

492
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 1: Michigan's face this year? Name one U NLV bad.

493
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 2: I mean, my whole I'm loaded up here to talk

494
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 2: about strike the schedules.

495
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 1: So I think, of course Michigan all their entire secondary

496
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 1: grades out of league like the UMass transfer corner, while

497
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 1: of course he grades out of leak they've played. I mean,

498
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 1: you go back to e Michigan State ECUs and these

499
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:54,920
Speaker 1: offense have been so much worse than we even thought.

500
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 1: EASTU is the worst offense in the country. So I

501
00:23:57,880 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 1: don't know their secondary I think is vulning around. Penn

502
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 1: State finally threw the ball down the field. That's what

503
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 1: I've been asking them to do. That's they need to do.

504
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,159
Speaker 1: And ten point eight at a dot against Indiana, the

505
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,360
Speaker 1: biggest of the year by far than last week. They're

506
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 1: throwing it down the field Dante Ce. This finally shows

507
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 1: up six catches, two touchdowns. Yeah, he didn't have more

508
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 1: than two catches the entire season in any game. So

509
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,119
Speaker 1: I think that that you know, hours playing more confident,

510
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,920
Speaker 1: they're gonna hit some downfield shots. I think this Michigan

511
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,360
Speaker 1: secondary might be a little more vulnerable than people think.

512
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna get pressure on the other side.

513
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 1: I think Michigan is in jeopardy of losing this game,

514
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 1: but I make it a field goal. There's also I

515
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 1: don't know it is not part of my handicap, but

516
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 1: what is the impact of the sign stealing, What is

517
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 1: the impact of the distractions of everything that's going on.

518
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 1: I don't know. That could only help Penn State. Not

519
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 1: part of my anticap, But I like the nitty lions

520
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,360
Speaker 1: here plus four and a half or better. I think

521
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,640
Speaker 1: this sets up his close field goal game either way.

522
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 1: I think that's it's gonna get off to a fast

523
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:54,879
Speaker 1: start and their defensive ends and edge pressure is going

524
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 1: to create some problems for McCarthy and company. So give

525
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 1: me to n I'll take my clown mass off while

526
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 1: you make your case for what you like.

527
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 2: I enjoyed seeing Manny Diaz on my Instagram today who

528
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:13,400
Speaker 2: did a bunch of hand signals to his wrist, two fingers,

529
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 2: all other kinds of stuff, and then he finally says that,

530
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 2: by the way, everybody that signals for get here early,

531
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 2: get loud, be extra loud on third down, Like Manny

532
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 2: Diaz is cracking jokes about sign stealing. No one at

533
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 2: Penn State's ever come out and said they did this

534
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 2: to us, and they did that to us, but Michigan

535
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 2: routed them last year and it was on the ground,

536
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 2: and I just for one second have to think that

537
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,879
Speaker 2: you're such in Diaz are like, how they know what

538
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 2: we were going to do? So, I mean, it's just

539
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 2: it's very uncharacteristic for me to see that on my Instagram.

540
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 2: But I agree with you. I like Penn State in

541
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 2: this game. I'm not positive I'm going to play it financially.

542
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 2: I don't have any money in this on the side

543
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,920
Speaker 2: because I'm so invested on Penn State futures that i

544
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 2: have to have this game. I may get into it

545
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:58,360
Speaker 2: for a unit or whatsoever. But I do like Penn State.

546
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 2: Just for the record. Now, the over where I have

547
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:02,719
Speaker 2: money on this this week. I don't expect either.

548
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 1: At least come on, because we got we got all

549
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,159
Speaker 1: the ship talkers saying we can't get a Penn State game, right,

550
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,119
Speaker 1: we both a great you got at least put some

551
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:10,240
Speaker 1: little money on it.

552
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,680
Speaker 2: There's good Listen, I'll put a green dot in the app.

553
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 2: I'll put some money on it. But I am so

554
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 2: heavy in Penn State futures. I mean, it doesn't that

555
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,640
Speaker 2: it's crazy. Listen. I like the over in this game.

556
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:24,920
Speaker 2: I've got money down on the over. I with you.

557
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:27,120
Speaker 2: I don't expect either of these teams to be able

558
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 2: to run. I think what you do when you get

559
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:31,679
Speaker 2: these teams that have these strength of schedules that are

560
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 2: so bad, right like Michigan's one hundred and eleventh. But

561
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 2: you see all these rankings that are top five and everything.

562
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 2: I mean, it doesn't matter, have a pass rush, coverage,

563
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 2: big play quality, it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter what

564
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 2: I say. They're all top five, but your schedules is

565
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 2: one hundred and eleven. So what do you do when

566
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 2: you have a team and their stat sheet pulls out

567
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:49,439
Speaker 2: like that? You pick out the ones that.

568
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 1: Was Penn State's as well before going into Ohio State, right,

569
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 1: because they played about the mclowns. They had the same

570
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 1: exact profile.

571
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 2: Right. So what you do when you see that is

572
00:26:58,320 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 2: you go and pick out the ones that aren't still

573
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:01,919
Speaker 2: and you say, well, this is actually a real problem

574
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:03,679
Speaker 2: because if you're not able to pull this shit off

575
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 2: against East Carolina and UNLV, what are you going to

576
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 2: do when a real team plays you. So when I

577
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 2: look at the sheet, Michigan's offensively fortieth in lineyards. They're

578
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 2: not gonna be able to run. There are one hundred

579
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 2: and seventh and standard downs explosives, They're not gonna be

580
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 2: able to create any kind of chunk yardage play first

581
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 2: and ten second and seven third and four. You keep

582
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 2: going down the list, like, I mean, there are certain

583
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 2: holes in here. Defensively, they're eighty second and allowing explosives

584
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 2: on standard downs. That's a problem. They're seventy first and

585
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 2: creating pressures really with this schedule, like and that's cumulative

586
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 2: pressures right on the season. So they're ninety third and

587
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 2: broken tackles. They've allowed a healthy amount of broken tackles

588
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 2: that there are things with this Michigan defense that really

589
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 2: are not lining up with the perception of what this

590
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 2: team is. I mean, you could listen to any kind

591
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 2: of media outlet in the world and they're going to

592
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 2: tell you Michigan is big and beefy and bad and mean,

593
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 2: and I don't see it.

594
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 1: Yeah. The other thing is last year, under pressure, with

595
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 1: the hardest schedule overall, McCarthy one big time throw, seven

596
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,399
Speaker 1: unerver worthy plays. I'm getting there, I think best. It's

597
00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 1: gonna be able to get pressure.

598
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 2: The question is can McCarthy handle one of the highest

599
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 2: rates of blitz. Now manny Dia has blitz fifty one percent.

600
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 2: Guys national average is like twenty eight percent. Many diaz

601
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 2: Is is just nuts with his blitz. He's coming after

602
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,359
Speaker 2: McCarthy here, And if you look at the overall numbers,

603
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 2: you're right. McCarthy was one big time throw in ninety

604
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:25,199
Speaker 2: three pressure dropbacks last year. This season he has eight

605
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 2: big time throws. But I mean stuck, we go round

606
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 2: and round. Is a bowling green pressure a little bit

607
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:34,639
Speaker 2: different than a Penn State pressure, probably a little bit faster,

608
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:36,240
Speaker 2: a little bit more on top of you, I would

609
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 2: say so. McCarthy this year is only seeing a ten

610
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 2: percent drop in adjust a completion rate when it comes

611
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 2: to pressured pockets. All I can do is go off

612
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 2: that and say I think McCarthy's going to have success

613
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 2: when they send blitz. I'm not saying it's going to

614
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 2: be Marvin Harrison's success. But they're gonna be able to

615
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 2: move the ball a little bit, but they're not gonna

616
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 2: be able to do it by running when you go

617
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 2: to the other side of the ball. What is going

618
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,320
Speaker 2: on with Mike erisitch in this offense? Like why are

619
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 2: you only attempting fifteen passes over twenty yards through seven

620
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 2: games in Ohio State and then the last two games

621
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 2: against Indiana and Maryland you've tried twelve passes over twenty yards.

622
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 2: You've nearly equaled the previous seven games and two games.

623
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 2: Is that I wondered if that was Maryland or any

624
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 2: and his defenses. But you go to Mike years such

625
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 2: making comments earlier this week after a practice, and he

626
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 2: said the efficiency just wasn't there. Now, he wasn't specific.

627
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 2: Was it Dante Cephas, was it KeAndre Lambert Smith? Was

628
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 2: it Drew Aller? Throwing out that he wasn't specific about

629
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 2: what the efficiency wasn't that wasn't there for him to

630
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 2: allow Drew aller to throw downfield, but all of a

631
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 2: sudden it's there, and Penn State has an appetite to

632
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 2: throw down field. I expect both these teams to have

633
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 2: scoring opportunities. That doesn't mean I think that they're gonna

634
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:42,719
Speaker 2: get touchdowns every time. I mean, that's the whole thing

635
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 2: about playing totals. People are just like, this team's fast,

636
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 2: this team scores a lot. To me, it's about scoring opportunities.

637
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 2: I believe Penn State and Michigan will get themselves into

638
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 2: scoring opportunities to get over this number. I make it

639
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 2: in the low fifties. Let's go over. I'm joining you

640
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 2: on Penn State. Shit, I'll go buy a clown wig

641
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 2: if they'd lose. But I mean, I'm with you all

642
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 2: the way. I just this Penn State appetite for big,

643
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 2: explosive plays could be the difference maker both ways, though

644
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 2: right it could back far the other way. We'll see.

645
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the difference to be the home crowd

646
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 1: step up for Michigan and the tackles. The weakness of

647
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 1: tackle get Chop Robinson back. Those edge rushers, and the

648
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 1: Penn State tackles have been really good in pass protection.

649
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 1: I think that's Ultimately the difference. The thing that I

650
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 1: worry about is because I don't think anything's get run

651
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 1: the ball. I just is a small game. James is

652
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 1: like this, We've seen this story before. So trusting Penn State.

653
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 1: We'll see how it works out. But really looking forward

654
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 1: to that game at noon. Another game at noon that

655
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to. Alabama Kentucky. Alabama ten and a

656
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 1: half eleven point favorite here in Lexington at noon. I

657
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 1: like Kentucky. Anything over ten is fine to May over

658
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 1: under forty seven here. So let's look at this BAMA team.

659
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 1: I know you love them, so I'm curious to get

660
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 1: your thoughts. You've been a national title future. Yeah, First

661
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 1: of all, this is not an ideal spot for Alabama.

662
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 1: You're you know, it's a noon kick in Lexington.

663
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 2: After I know to this, I know you're new to this.

664
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 2: It's the Jefferson Pilot Times Jefferson Pilot.

665
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 1: They got their revenge right, big revenge over Tennessee. They

666
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 1: wanted that game LSU beat him last year. They wanted

667
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 1: that game they beat ls here too big. We want

668
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 1: these games circled on the schedule. Now you're going to

669
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 1: Kentucky for a noon kick. The week after major major

670
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 1: leftown spot in Kentucky basically just had a scrimmage. Last

671
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 1: week agains Mississippi State. Just their defense won the game.

672
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 1: They didn't do anything like so everyone says the Alabama

673
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 1: offense is back. They destroyed the LSUD that was playing

674
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 1: with all its backups. Everyone does that. Every competent offense

675
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 1: destroys the LSU defense. I mean, like the fifty plus.

676
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter. So I didn't take much from that game.

677
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 1: Milroe is getting better, but he's still and he's at

678
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 1: deep ball's elite. He can run, he still struggles to

679
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 1: read defenses and in the intermediary throwing range. You go back,

680
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 1: why why does this team I only get the half

681
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 1: to Tennessee and then explode in the second half. Why

682
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 1: do they only beat Arkansas by three? You know why?

683
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 1: Should they probably should have lost at Texas A and M.

684
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 1: Because their offense just goes into these drafts. If you

685
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 1: have a competent defense and they'll go three and a half,

686
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 1: they'll take a bunch of sacks. The offensive line they've had,

687
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 1: they have some holes at center and one of the

688
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 1: tackle spots. So you know, when I look at this game,

689
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:27,960
Speaker 1: what does Kentucky do. Their entire defensive philosophy is they

690
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 1: run a ton of zone and they want to take

691
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 1: away the explosive play. I think they're eleventh at explosiveness allowed,

692
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 1: ninth in passing exposiveness allowed, and they sit in a

693
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 1: ton of zone. So here, what does that do. You

694
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:43,479
Speaker 1: can't really hit explosives against them. I'm sure Bamo will

695
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 1: probably hit one or two because they're just so talented,

696
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 1: but you can't really hit explosives against them. And quarterbacks

697
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 1: can't run against them, and they've played a ton of

698
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 1: running quarterbacks this year. None of them have done anything

699
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 1: on the ground. You just have guys in their zones,

700
00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 1: and you could have fast linebackers. So Milro's I think

701
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 1: legs and his deep ball are going to be neutralized here.

702
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 1: Bam is gonna come out flat and they're gonna have

703
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 1: droughts on offense. So I think that this is a

704
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 1: lower scoring game. Kentucky can hang around and Learies look better.

705
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 1: He's healthy. You got full clearance. You saw him in

706
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 1: that Tennessee game through for nearly four hundred yards. You

707
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 1: know they had drop issues, which they've kind of cured.

708
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 1: Their offensive line is healthier now. So I think this

709
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 1: is just a good matchup for the Kentucky defense and

710
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 1: a great spot. I make it like a little over

711
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 1: a touchdown factoring all that in, so I was happy

712
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 1: to take ten and a half. The way that I

713
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 1: think this plays out is Kentucky's gonna give Alabama scare

714
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 1: and then it's going to end like Alabama twenty four seventeen.

715
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 2: I'll call it. Well, I project the game to be eight,

716
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 2: so I will allow it. I think it's a good

717
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 2: bed when you get double digits here, because you know,

718
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 2: I think the number is too high. Perception of Alabama

719
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 2: after the BATLSU and now you're rolling into an eleven

720
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 2: am kickoff Central Standard time. The one thing that I

721
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 2: look at when I get into the numbers, the series

722
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 2: has not gone well for Stoops against Savings, and Stoops

723
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 2: took the job back in twenty thirteen losses forty eight

724
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 2: to seven, sixty three to three. But you know, like

725
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 2: I say, it's pandemic season. It threw that one out.

726
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 2: Kentucky finally broke the three game losing streak against Mississippi State,

727
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 2: but they failed to meet national average and success rate

728
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:19,439
Speaker 2: and run and pass plays. They didn't generate one explosive drive.

729
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 2: They only had one methodical They did limit Mississippi State

730
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 2: to a field goal. They stuffed nearly half of cow

731
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 2: Bell's rushing attempts, which would give me hope, like it

732
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,800
Speaker 2: with a Kentucky ticket, that they could stop Jayaln Milroe

733
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 2: from doing something here Alabama's thirty third offensive finishing drive.

734
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:35,360
Speaker 2: So it's going to be a little bit of a

735
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 2: different story here in scoring position. But the question is

736
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:40,320
Speaker 2: how often is Alabama going to get into scoring position.

737
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 2: The way to beat Alabama is to saw off Jalen

738
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:46,880
Speaker 2: Milroe scramble game. You got to keep him within the pocket,

739
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 2: within the passing lanes, and then somehow not have the

740
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 2: deep ball kill you like the hass. So you got

741
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:53,400
Speaker 2: to pick one of the other. Which one you're going

742
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 2: to go after. Kentucky's one hundred and thirtieth and creating

743
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 2: defensive pressures one hundred and sixteenth and broken tackles allowed.

744
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 2: Alabama has been top ten nationally and creating broken tackles.

745
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 2: So I think at some point in the second half

746
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 2: there's going to be a breakthrough. I don't expect it

747
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:08,479
Speaker 2: in the first half, and I don't see Devin Leary

748
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 2: having success here thirteen of twenty two passing against Mississippi

749
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 2: State worse. You know, that was worse. It's like he's

750
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 2: regressed with the twenty eight from thirty nine against Tennessee

751
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:20,239
Speaker 2: where we thought that he was, you know, getting better

752
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 2: with the injury that he had to his peck. So

753
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:25,800
Speaker 2: no real pros and cons with the coverage, Alabama dominates

754
00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 2: every package. So what I think is an extremely low

755
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:30,840
Speaker 2: scoring game in the first half because of the hangover,

756
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 2: because of the you know, the way that Kentucky plays

757
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,439
Speaker 2: defense and protects explosives. This is a first half under

758
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,760
Speaker 2: all the way. I wouldn't be surprised there's only thirteen

759
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 2: seventeen points in the first half.

760
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, UK eleventh and overall explosiveness allowed eighth on passing downs.

761
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 1: That's big. Against Milroe, they played five mobile quarterbacks. They've

762
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 1: allowed if you take away sacks, forty rushes for one

763
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 1: hundred and eighty yards, that's it. So they done a

764
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 1: good job. You could beat them with effish and passing

765
00:35:57,120 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 1: all day, but that's not really the Alibuma game. And

766
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:05,359
Speaker 1: for what it's worth, Alabama has and because we agree

767
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: it's gonna be lower score game. That gives even more

768
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,840
Speaker 1: value to the double digit dog. Over the past three seasons,

769
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,360
Speaker 1: Alabama and true road games four and eight against the

770
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:14,560
Speaker 1: spread family the cover by over a touchdown per game.

771
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 1: As a favorite of more than a touchdown over the

772
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 1: past three seasons, Alabama in Homer neutral games thirteen and

773
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:24,360
Speaker 1: five against the spread, including the postseason, seventy two percent.

774
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 1: In true road games three and eight against the spread

775
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 1: as a favorite of more than a touchdown twenty seven

776
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 1: percent against the spread. I think the Cats keep it

777
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,760
Speaker 1: close and keep it ugly, which will work in their favor.

778
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the Pac twelve where

779
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 1: Washington will try to remain unblemished against Utah. Washington, what's

780
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 1: sitting around at nine and a half point favorite here?

781
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:53,719
Speaker 1: Utah is coming off just a complete waxing of Arizona State,

782
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 1: which had they kicked out their boorgat got hurt. They

783
00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:58,799
Speaker 1: had to go to Conover, who had no chance. They

784
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 1: had a kick out Arizona State out kick out their

785
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:05,280
Speaker 1: true freshman guard to left tackle as a disaster before

786
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:07,399
Speaker 1: that game in Utah justed I think as I say,

787
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 1: that's seventy three total yards utahed over five hundred complete domination.

788
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 1: Utah's pass defense on paper is great, but I will

789
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 1: say I mean they held up relatively well against Oregon USC.

790
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 1: They've got a lot of breaks elsewhere, so they have

791
00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:23,520
Speaker 1: a couple data points where they were you know, they

792
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:25,919
Speaker 1: played Dante Moore in his first road start, Cal's true

793
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:29,239
Speaker 1: freshman this first road start, so they've had some you know,

794
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 1: performances where I think that they've been helped by the circumstances.

795
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 1: But it's definitely a really good pass defense. The question

796
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 1: here for me is how successful can you ta be

797
00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 1: running the ball? Washington's rund he already mentioned it earlier,

798
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 1: over a fifty percent success rate allowed, you know, but

799
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 1: can Utah keep up that way? Can they play keep

800
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,879
Speaker 1: away enough? Utah hasn't been great and true road games

801
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:52,279
Speaker 1: in the PAC twelve either. I can't get a good

802
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:55,440
Speaker 1: feel for this one, but I think you like either

803
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 1: a side or total. What do you see here?

804
00:37:57,000 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I pulled the rubber band back and through through

805
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,400
Speaker 2: a dime down on Washington. I'm not getting real positive

806
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 2: traction in the market on it. But it's just things

807
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 2: the notes that I'm hearing everything out of Kyle Whittingham's presser.

808
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 2: The numbers that I'm seeing in the stats. To me,

809
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:14,360
Speaker 2: this lines up to be a Washington blowout.

810
00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 1: Now.

811
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 2: The big handicap last week against USC, which you and

812
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 2: I were both on USC one of the few games

813
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:21,800
Speaker 2: I think I was wrong on last week, but it

814
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 2: was because Washington continually struggled with two, four, five, three

815
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 2: man fronts. Like we were just talking about this with

816
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:30,959
Speaker 2: PAC twelve defenses dropping eight in coverage and some teams

817
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:33,440
Speaker 2: were dropping nine because Washington refused to run the ball.

818
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 2: What did Washington do against USC? They went ape shit

819
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 2: on the ground. Dylan Johnson went berserk for rushing touchdowns

820
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:44,320
Speaker 2: I think two hundred and fifty something yards. So finally

821
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 2: Washington says, you know what, if you got to take

822
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:47,880
Speaker 2: this away from Michael Pennix, We're going to show you

823
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 2: which we got on the ground. I think Kaylen debor Is,

824
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 2: you know, I was talking about him being you know,

825
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:55,800
Speaker 2: bullheaded or just wanted to throw into coverage. It seems

826
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 2: like they're more of a complete, you know, offensive unit now.

827
00:38:58,160 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 2: And if that's what Utah is going to show them,

828
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 2: they're going to take the run. And if UTAH tries

829
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 2: to pressure Michael Pennix, they're going to get the pass.

830
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 2: So I'm more comfortable saying Washington is more of a

831
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 2: complete offense now, not just a throwing one. And you

832
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 2: know what that gives some of your wide receivers like

833
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:12,719
Speaker 2: Jaylen McMillan a little bit of a rest not having

834
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 2: to have such the workload on him. Washington back on

835
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:18,399
Speaker 2: track after struggling its Arizona State and Stanford, which showed

836
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 2: them really light fronts. They went anti light box, pounded

837
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 2: in the back. I think if Washington's going to score,

838
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:26,279
Speaker 2: they're going to go up and down the field, they're

839
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 2: going to get their points here. Can Utah generate enough

840
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:31,760
Speaker 2: scoring opportunities and score themselves? And I think the answer

841
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:34,840
Speaker 2: is no. Kyle Whittingham came out this week said, you

842
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:39,479
Speaker 2: know Jaquindin Jackson game time decision. Ankle is hurt once again.

843
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 2: I mean Jackson had that one big breakout game and

844
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 2: after the game he said, I'm pissed off because I'm

845
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:46,359
Speaker 2: injured every game. Well now he's injured again. He might

846
00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 2: even playing this And when you know that was brought

847
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:51,279
Speaker 2: up to Kyle Whittingham and his presser, he said, oh

848
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,319
Speaker 2: sioni baki, He's only going to play a maximum thirty

849
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:56,719
Speaker 2: percent of snaps on offense. The rest of the time,

850
00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 2: he's going to be at his natural position in the

851
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 2: defensive backfield, and that's where we eat him this week.

852
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 2: And I'm just thinking to myself, who's running the ball? Well,

853
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 2: Kyle Witnting get answer, Yeah, Jackson's bang up. Vaki's not

854
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:10,360
Speaker 2: gonna run. He named a true freshman off who I

855
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:12,800
Speaker 2: think has five carries on the season as the is

856
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 2: the guy that's gonna get the tempts in this game.

857
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 2: So I don't mean to like like treat that like

858
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 2: that's a bad thing for Utah, right, because Utah is

859
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 2: the one thing where they can throw a pig farmer

860
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 2: at quarterback, they can throw a defensive back at running back,

861
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 2: and they can still beat teams. It's pretty crazy. I

862
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:30,959
Speaker 2: don't want to say that the they're thin, right because

863
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 2: they seem to come up with these no name people

864
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 2: that you and I don't even know about and blow

865
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 2: teams out. But I just I think they are the

866
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:40,319
Speaker 2: thinnest they've been. I mean, with all the injuries from

867
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:42,640
Speaker 2: the from the beginning of the season until now, is

868
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 2: the thinnest they've ever been. And then Winningham said at

869
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:47,320
Speaker 2: the end of the thing, we want to use a

870
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 2: little bit more tempo. And as it relates to how

871
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 2: many injuries that they have, they want to use a

872
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 2: little bit more tempo. When they weren't able to do

873
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 2: that last week. That's not the key to beating Washington.

874
00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:58,839
Speaker 1: Got to be able to run that as a dog either.

875
00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:01,280
Speaker 2: No, you got to run the ball. So the things

876
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:03,759
Speaker 2: like everything that I'm seeing in the statute and everything

877
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:06,400
Speaker 2: I'm hearing from Winningham in that press conference on Tuesday,

878
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 2: Washington's got a chance to blow them out, get some

879
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 2: style points and maybe slip into the top four.

880
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:13,440
Speaker 1: Here. I won't have anything on it, but I'll be

881
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 1: ready for your bet. And for personal financial reasons, maybe

882
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 1: we'll get a Washington blows out Utah, Oregon State, maybe

883
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 1: close sleepy win get a three plus three with the

884
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 1: Oregon State next week.

885
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 2: I mean Oregon States, I can't even we might we

886
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:30,920
Speaker 2: could do the pod. Now organ State's rushing attack is

887
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:32,359
Speaker 2: that Washington d oh boy.

888
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:34,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're gonna go up, up and down the field.

889
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:37,160
Speaker 1: USC last week. If you go back and look at

890
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 1: their I mean this is outrageous. I mean you see

891
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:41,880
Speaker 1: they should have covered the baccumally didn't get a back door.

892
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 1: But they lost that game on a fourth down late

893
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 1: and then Kleb fumbled. That's the problem to you us. See,

894
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:48,240
Speaker 1: well we'll talk about that game in a minute. Let's

895
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:51,920
Speaker 1: go to our final marquee game. Ole Mess at Georgia.

896
00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 2: I'm so uncomfortable with this one. I made a pick

897
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 2: and I'm so uncomfortable.

898
00:41:57,760 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 1: This is a second start year. I made a really

899
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:02,400
Speaker 1: good old Miss. That that's our good future in the SEC.

900
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:04,360
Speaker 1: Had Tennessee last year to win the division, you should have.

901
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 2: So many legs with that future. One loss to Bama,

902
00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:09,800
Speaker 2: I mean you should just start. Man, how hard is

903
00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:11,840
Speaker 2: it for Lane? Lane brings it up everywhere. Lane is

904
00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:13,879
Speaker 2: all they could talk about is like, you know, thanks

905
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:16,719
Speaker 2: guys for pissing saving Obama off. Thank you. Yeah.

906
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 1: We have the only hope for all Miss futures for

907
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:23,800
Speaker 1: anyone that tailed the twenty five to one is Kentucky

908
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:26,800
Speaker 1: has to beat Alabama, and then Auburn has to beat Alabama,

909
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:31,719
Speaker 1: and Ole Miss has to win alt so almost has

910
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:38,799
Speaker 1: to be Georgia more than that. So Ole Miss here

911
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 1: is they lost their tackle to and it starting tackled

912
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 1: to an injury in practice yesterday, which is noteworthy. Georgia

913
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 1: ten and a half point favorite, are over under fifty

914
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:49,200
Speaker 1: eight and a half. I number one, you're gonna see

915
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:51,360
Speaker 1: a lot of quarters coverage in this game from both defenses.

916
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:55,400
Speaker 1: For what it's worth, Beck's numbers kind of dicey against

917
00:42:55,480 --> 00:43:01,279
Speaker 1: quarters and Jackson Dart's been elite again quarters coverage. But

918
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 1: can't I just can't get a good and look you

919
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:06,520
Speaker 1: saw Georgia. The defense has taking a step back. They

920
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 1: lost a ton of town over the past two years.

921
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:10,279
Speaker 1: I was shocked that Missouri was able to run the

922
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 1: ball last week, So that, you know, is a good

923
00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:16,839
Speaker 1: sign for Ole Miss to try and get Judkins going here.

924
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 1: And it's just not the same Georgia defense. I mean,

925
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 1: look who and who have they really played? I mean,

926
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:25,399
Speaker 1: you go back to Florida. Doesn't look as good now

927
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 1: that when you know Kentucky. You know, so like this,

928
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 1: this is the best offense by far that they're going

929
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 1: to face, you know, so I think Old Miss can

930
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:35,440
Speaker 1: have some success on the offense side of the ball.

931
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 1: Where I'm struggling the most is I just can't I

932
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 1: can't really get a read for the Old Miss defense.

933
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:43,799
Speaker 1: They're definitely improved, They're definitely worry more about the run

934
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 1: last year. Last year they would like drop eight. They

935
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 1: brought him peak gold. And there's a lot of familiarity

936
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 1: between these staffs two, which throws a wrench into it.

937
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:54,440
Speaker 1: But they're they're much better against the run. I just

938
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 1: don't know how much better they are overall, because I mean, look,

939
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:01,840
Speaker 1: they held their their own against Bama. But Bama's offense

940
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 1: can be just we talked about it, like they just

941
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,799
Speaker 1: go into shells for long periods of time. Who else

942
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:12,680
Speaker 1: has all missed really faced that you say, Okay, yeah,

943
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 1: this is a great data point. I don't really know.

944
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 1: I mean I don't have much confidence because, like the

945
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 1: numbers are pretty good. But they played you know, they

946
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:23,799
Speaker 1: played LSU and that game was you know, fifty five

947
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 1: forty nine. Now, lets you can score that on anybody,

948
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:29,800
Speaker 1: but Georgia Tech was moving it. The two lane backup

949
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:32,320
Speaker 1: was moving it a bit. And then they played Arkansas

950
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:35,480
Speaker 1: when it was Danny Enos. They played Auburn who can't

951
00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:38,399
Speaker 1: throw it. They played Van Dy and then they played

952
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:41,400
Speaker 1: Texts A and M, you know who had injuries too,

953
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 1: and still put up thirty five. Although that game was

954
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:45,360
Speaker 1: about to be a blow before blocked field goal return.

955
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:47,759
Speaker 1: So I just I don't have a great feel for

956
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:50,400
Speaker 1: the old Miss defense, and I think the Georgia defense

957
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 1: is vulnerable. I kind of lean the overs where I like,

958
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 1: I make this cut right on, I'm at like ten.

959
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 1: The other thing that just throws a complete wrench into

960
00:44:57,160 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 1: this game is that you're gonna have lane kick golf

961
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 1: fourth downs, which could decide to side and total right there.

962
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 1: He's probably gonna go for a couple fourth downs the

963
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:08,239
Speaker 1: first half. I think that if ole Miss has a

964
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:10,919
Speaker 1: couple drives early and they fail in like fourth down

965
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:13,400
Speaker 1: and this total comes down, I might look for a

966
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:15,880
Speaker 1: live over. I just don't have a great feel for

967
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:18,440
Speaker 1: this game right now, just because I don't have confidence

968
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 1: in my rating and or feel for this ole Miss

969
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:24,920
Speaker 1: defense and how they'll match up here against George's passing attack.

970
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:26,560
Speaker 1: Curious to get your thoughts here.

971
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 2: I have held off on ole Miss. I wrote this

972
00:45:29,840 --> 00:45:33,319
Speaker 2: game up for action, and I was heavy on the over,

973
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:35,719
Speaker 2: which I have money on, and I have dabbled in

974
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:40,759
Speaker 2: the Old Miss side. The injury to my competitis is

975
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:44,759
Speaker 2: a problem, and so you know, let's discuss where I'm

976
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:46,879
Speaker 2: coming at with this game now. Georgia overs are something

977
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 2: that I think is what my fourth week in a

978
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 2: row on this, and it just really has to deal

979
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 2: with something that you mentioned before, like Carson Beck has

980
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:56,839
Speaker 2: a really high success rate in a high EPA versus

981
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 2: Cover three. He doesn't have any explosives against quarters. You're

982
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:02,560
Speaker 2: he's gonna se both cover three and quarters here. Georgia

983
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:06,880
Speaker 2: is now fifth nationally and passing success rate Carson Becker.

984
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 1: Are you on the over here again?

985
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:10,279
Speaker 2: I am on the over here, Yeah, over over here.

986
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:12,799
Speaker 2: You know, fifty nine being a key number, so make

987
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 2: sure you get the best of that. It did come down.

988
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:16,800
Speaker 2: I think the fifty six and a half. I highly

989
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 2: doubt this thing gets to fifty five. Carson Beck still

990
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 2: accurate thirteenth and on target balls. Targets don't have to

991
00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:25,480
Speaker 2: change their pace their stride. They're getting balls straight in

992
00:46:25,560 --> 00:46:27,400
Speaker 2: the numbers. That's good for them, and they have a

993
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:31,360
Speaker 2: ton of explosive weapons here. The other thing too, that

994
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:33,279
Speaker 2: I say before I flip over the old miss side,

995
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:37,240
Speaker 2: these teams are sixty seventh and seventieth and defensive finishing drives.

996
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:39,879
Speaker 2: They are allowing a lot of touchdowns when teams get

997
00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:42,600
Speaker 2: down to the red zone. Or past the forty yard line.

998
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:45,759
Speaker 2: They're almost averaging four points to opponents when they get

999
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 2: past the forty yard line. That that kind of well,

1000
00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:50,560
Speaker 2: let's slip to the ole miss side when they're on offense,

1001
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:52,920
Speaker 2: because you're right, this Georgia front seven is not pulling

1002
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:56,520
Speaker 2: it off, Brady Cook. You know, ten rushes for forty yards.

1003
00:46:56,560 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 2: We think Peyton Thorn, why are these quarterbacks and he's

1004
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 2: running having so much success outside zone is killing George's

1005
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:06,840
Speaker 2: front seven this year. When you go and look what

1006
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:10,440
Speaker 2: Jackson Dart and quin Shawn Judkins do, it's gonna be

1007
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 2: a problem. Now Dart, you're right, he is fantastic against quarters.

1008
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 2: Dart's fifty seven percent success rate, that's well above average.

1009
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 2: He has a positive EPA against quarters. He's also explosive

1010
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:22,080
Speaker 2: against cover in one cover three, but I mean it's

1011
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:24,319
Speaker 2: it's a different story of the quarters. He's really good.

1012
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:26,960
Speaker 2: And so the question is is will quarters coverage draw

1013
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 2: more scrambles or designed to runs from Dart. Because it's

1014
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:32,279
Speaker 2: a cover four, they can double team the outside. It's

1015
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 2: really tough to throw into even though Dart's good at it.

1016
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:37,560
Speaker 2: But I think this generates more RPO. I mean, are

1017
00:47:37,760 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 2: you know Peyton Thorn going twelve rushes for ninety two

1018
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:42,880
Speaker 2: yards when Auburn was there to play him. What's Jackson

1019
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:45,759
Speaker 2: Dart gonna do with quin Shawn Judkins. Now, inside zone

1020
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:47,680
Speaker 2: they run, they run a little bit of power. They

1021
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:50,919
Speaker 2: both have high success rate. George has only seen power

1022
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:54,680
Speaker 2: on twenty three rushing attempts. Moderates success rate moderate EPA.

1023
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 2: They dominate the inside zone, so I think outside zone

1024
00:47:57,719 --> 00:48:00,720
Speaker 2: is gonna way. Glaine is gonna go because their biggest

1025
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:03,360
Speaker 2: runs this season have come off tight end and tackle

1026
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:06,239
Speaker 2: left and right. I expect Old Miss to be in

1027
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:09,400
Speaker 2: passing downs, throwing often or running outside zone, which is

1028
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:11,600
Speaker 2: going to get them chunk yardage. Just depends on what

1029
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:14,520
Speaker 2: they do and scoring opportunities. But like I said, both

1030
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 2: these teams are pretty bad at defensive finishing drives, at

1031
00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:18,719
Speaker 2: least not up to standards, so there's going to be

1032
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:21,520
Speaker 2: points put up on the board. The my compettis injury

1033
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:26,400
Speaker 2: is a problem because Quinn Shawn Jenkins' biggest alley of

1034
00:48:26,560 --> 00:48:30,960
Speaker 2: running of yards after contact of explosive runs is all

1035
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 2: right off the right tackle. So my advice I have

1036
00:48:34,160 --> 00:48:36,040
Speaker 2: not put a bed in an ole Miss. I have

1037
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:37,760
Speaker 2: put a bet in on the over. That doesn't affect

1038
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:41,920
Speaker 2: the over because Jackson Dart, whether my competitis is, you know,

1039
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:43,719
Speaker 2: he's out, he's ruled out. He's not gonna be there

1040
00:48:43,760 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 2: to protect Jackson Dart. Dart is still gonna be able

1041
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:48,560
Speaker 2: to throw into that into Georgia. That quarters coverage is

1042
00:48:48,560 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 2: going to make it soft in the front. Dart will

1043
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 2: be fine. But I would say come watch us on

1044
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:55,960
Speaker 2: Saturday morning because I will have money on this one

1045
00:48:56,000 --> 00:48:57,719
Speaker 2: way or the other. I really want a bet old miss.

1046
00:48:57,760 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 2: But the injury to Mike Pettis is really big to

1047
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:02,839
Speaker 2: Quinn Sean Judkins and his outside zone to the right.

1048
00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, Pettis broke his foot a footbone at practice. He's

1049
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:12,560
Speaker 1: ruled out. He started last season as a register freshman,

1050
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:14,400
Speaker 1: played all thirteen games, nine starts.

1051
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:18,399
Speaker 2: Are they sliding someone over?

1052
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:20,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know it, just this just came out.

1053
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:23,319
Speaker 2: So yeah, for the listeners out there, this news broke

1054
00:49:23,440 --> 00:49:27,280
Speaker 2: like ninety minutes ago. So we're we'll talk about.

1055
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:29,440
Speaker 1: This game on the live show on Saturday too, So

1056
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:31,640
Speaker 1: keep an eye on the app and then tune into

1057
00:49:31,640 --> 00:49:32,960
Speaker 1: the live show ten thirty eight Eastern.

1058
00:49:33,239 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 2: And take this and take this with you in your

1059
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 2: in your guys' back pocket. Outside zone is killing the

1060
00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:40,920
Speaker 2: Georgia front seven. They are not stopping anyone off tackle.

1061
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:44,800
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to good stuff on the Marquee matchups.

1062
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 1: Let's get to some rapid fire, rapid fire. Let's go

1063
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:54,759
Speaker 1: head to head fuck our first head to have. We're

1064
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 1: gonna keep track of these each season.

1065
00:49:56,080 --> 00:49:57,360
Speaker 2: Play for what are you up to?

1066
00:49:57,440 --> 00:50:01,640
Speaker 1: A thousand likes on this for you? Little yep Fresh

1067
00:50:01,760 --> 00:50:03,239
Speaker 1: was on me now, Seah, I called you out, so

1068
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 1: I gotta I could eat crow. You know you didn't

1069
00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:10,560
Speaker 1: say anything, you didn't open your mouth. I'm going back

1070
00:50:10,680 --> 00:50:13,640
Speaker 1: to my wildcat. So. I think every year there's a

1071
00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:15,960
Speaker 1: team that the market can't team or two the top

1072
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:19,440
Speaker 1: and bottom of the market of the college football landscape

1073
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:21,480
Speaker 1: that the market can't catch up to. Some of them

1074
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:23,320
Speaker 1: are bad. So when we're good, Kent State is the

1075
00:50:23,360 --> 00:50:25,560
Speaker 1: bad they did. They're one and nine against this bread

1076
00:50:25,640 --> 00:50:29,520
Speaker 1: Now they're only cover at Arkansas. The markets just can't

1077
00:50:29,719 --> 00:50:32,080
Speaker 1: catch up to them. You got people betting million dollars

1078
00:50:32,200 --> 00:50:35,759
Speaker 1: on State million dollars, but Arizona they treated me really well.

1079
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:37,680
Speaker 1: I think that people aren't talking about is last year

1080
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 1: their offense was amazing, like they had a really good offense,

1081
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:44,279
Speaker 1: but their defense was horrifying. And then they also turned

1082
00:50:44,320 --> 00:50:47,920
Speaker 1: it over too much. But now with Noahafida, who again

1083
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:52,040
Speaker 1: was amazing last week. He's been the PAC twelve Freshman

1084
00:50:52,080 --> 00:50:53,759
Speaker 1: of the Week in four of his five starts, and

1085
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:56,319
Speaker 1: he's played nothing but top twenty teams. They can run

1086
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:58,319
Speaker 1: the ball, they can throw the ball, they can pass

1087
00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 1: protect their offense. I now have as a top ten

1088
00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:04,320
Speaker 1: offense in the country. Their offense is and off of

1089
00:51:04,400 --> 00:51:07,040
Speaker 1: fete is it's so well schemed too. Fafida is just

1090
00:51:07,120 --> 00:51:10,680
Speaker 1: Thelaura without turnovers. That's it. They lost to Mississippi State.

1091
00:51:10,719 --> 00:51:12,960
Speaker 1: Here's Arizona's losses this year. At Atsissippi State, they turned

1092
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:15,600
Speaker 1: it over five times. Rafeita had four picks and they

1093
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:19,360
Speaker 1: still lost in overtime. They lost at USC in double overtime,

1094
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:22,239
Speaker 1: and then they losto a healthy Washington team by seven.

1095
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:24,800
Speaker 1: That's it. They feat you know, three ranked teams in

1096
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:28,759
Speaker 1: a row. This team's rolling defense. Like I said, now,

1097
00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:30,400
Speaker 1: the defense is better and the special teams is better.

1098
00:51:30,480 --> 00:51:32,960
Speaker 1: The defense can stop the run. And why is that important?

1099
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:35,839
Speaker 1: Because Number one, this color the defense is ttrocious. They're

1100
00:51:36,040 --> 00:51:38,279
Speaker 1: outside the top one hundred and ten in Russian pass

1101
00:51:38,280 --> 00:51:41,240
Speaker 1: success rate. Well, guess what Arizona's top ten in Russian

1102
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:43,320
Speaker 1: pass success rate On offense. They want to run it,

1103
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 1: they want to throw it, do whatever they want, move

1104
00:51:45,520 --> 00:51:47,200
Speaker 1: it up and down the field and on the other

1105
00:51:47,280 --> 00:51:49,920
Speaker 1: side of the ball. Arizona's run d's been really good.

1106
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 1: They've got bulk up front. Now they're flying around to

1107
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:55,680
Speaker 1: the ball. What is Colorado made the dumbest change of

1108
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 1: the year. The only thing they did well was run

1109
00:51:57,680 --> 00:52:00,279
Speaker 1: their passing offense with pace with Sean Lewis. That was

1110
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 1: the only thing to well. They had terrible d couldn't

1111
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:04,879
Speaker 1: run the ball, terrible O line. Now Dion names Pat

1112
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:06,919
Speaker 1: Shermer the off it's a corner and gives them the keys.

1113
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:11,439
Speaker 1: What happens. It's seventy yards through three quarters against Oregon State,

1114
00:52:11,760 --> 00:52:15,080
Speaker 1: seventy yards trying to run the ball go slower. Wide

1115
00:52:15,120 --> 00:52:18,960
Speaker 1: receiver screens took away the one good thing that was

1116
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:21,960
Speaker 1: going for Colorado took it away. Arizona could shut down

1117
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 1: the run. They can get up to the path. They're

1118
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:25,960
Speaker 1: gonna dominate the line of scrimmage year. As long as

1119
00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:28,799
Speaker 1: Arizona shows up, they have some red zone regression coming

1120
00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:30,799
Speaker 1: on d But as long as they show up, they

1121
00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 1: have I think they're gonna beat Utah next week at

1122
00:52:32,680 --> 00:52:34,600
Speaker 1: home too. I'll be on them again. They've just beat

1123
00:52:34,640 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 1: three rank teams in a row. I think they do though,

1124
00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:38,520
Speaker 1: because teams want to show up to beat Colorado like

1125
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:41,640
Speaker 1: that's Colorado talking all the shit makes this not a

1126
00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:44,600
Speaker 1: bad letdown spot in my opinion. I just think Arizona

1127
00:52:44,640 --> 00:52:47,200
Speaker 1: is significantly better. I'm higher on Arizona than the world.

1128
00:52:47,239 --> 00:52:48,840
Speaker 1: I think that they should be the collegetable playoff, So

1129
00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:52,640
Speaker 1: take that for what it's worth. Arizona faredown, baredown, bare

1130
00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:54,960
Speaker 1: down atm make your case for Dion.

1131
00:52:55,520 --> 00:52:57,360
Speaker 2: Are we sure that they didn't make a change in

1132
00:52:57,400 --> 00:53:00,400
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator again when the fourth quarter started. There was

1133
00:53:00,520 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 2: just a blitz of two possessions there at the end

1134
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:04,719
Speaker 2: to get that cover against Oregon State, So I'm not

1135
00:53:05,520 --> 00:53:06,200
Speaker 2: I'm not exactly.

1136
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:09,719
Speaker 1: Over the last two weeks, they've been absolutely humiliated and

1137
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:13,080
Speaker 1: they got two back door covers. Yeah, luckily Arizona will

1138
00:53:13,160 --> 00:53:14,400
Speaker 1: hopefully put them away.

1139
00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:16,919
Speaker 2: Two backdoor covers. I expect Arizona to be up thirty

1140
00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:18,560
Speaker 2: here and a back door cover could still come in

1141
00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:20,439
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter. Listen, when you look at the box score,

1142
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:23,200
Speaker 2: twenty four minutes of possession, only fifteen rushing attempts and

1143
00:53:23,239 --> 00:53:27,359
Speaker 2: forty three passing attempts. Chaduze dot was five point eight yards, right,

1144
00:53:27,440 --> 00:53:30,160
Speaker 2: I mean, I didn't see any changes in these numbers

1145
00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 2: compared to all the other games. Such a heavy amount

1146
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:35,359
Speaker 2: of passing happening behind the line of scrimmage, shallow.

1147
00:53:35,239 --> 00:53:36,560
Speaker 1: Just like an extension of the running game.

1148
00:53:36,800 --> 00:53:39,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, if Travis Hunter, Dylan Edwards, Weaver Horn, they all

1149
00:53:39,480 --> 00:53:41,359
Speaker 2: get it. They try to create something after the catch.

1150
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:43,360
Speaker 2: I just I didn't see a whole lot of changes

1151
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:45,600
Speaker 2: when I went into the box score that I thought

1152
00:53:45,640 --> 00:53:47,279
Speaker 2: this was going to be more of a heavy running

1153
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:49,800
Speaker 2: attack with a bunch of offensive linemen. You know that

1154
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:52,120
Speaker 2: weigh what two hundred and sixty pounds, are all trying

1155
00:53:52,160 --> 00:53:54,440
Speaker 2: to move a pile. They can't. But that's not what happened.

1156
00:53:54,440 --> 00:53:57,160
Speaker 2: I mean, they're still passing shallow, so I'm not really

1157
00:53:57,200 --> 00:54:00,080
Speaker 2: sure how much change has happened. Plus the pace, the

1158
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:02,759
Speaker 2: pace is still there. I was wrong on what they

1159
00:54:02,800 --> 00:54:05,960
Speaker 2: were doing, and you know, two quick drives there at

1160
00:54:05,960 --> 00:54:08,080
Speaker 2: the end to get the cover. Arizona is I'm not

1161
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:10,720
Speaker 2: trying to throw a whole bunch of cold water on Arizona.

1162
00:54:10,760 --> 00:54:13,479
Speaker 2: I understand what this bullet train is. I'm not trying

1163
00:54:13,520 --> 00:54:15,279
Speaker 2: to hop in front of it. I'm just saying, how

1164
00:54:15,360 --> 00:54:17,920
Speaker 2: big is this bullet train? Okay, can we agree on

1165
00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:19,799
Speaker 2: I'm not saying they're gonna lose. I'm just saying how

1166
00:54:19,840 --> 00:54:22,720
Speaker 2: big is this bullet train? Arizona is sixtieth and tackling

1167
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:26,320
Speaker 2: THEFF but then they dropped the seventy sixth the broken

1168
00:54:26,400 --> 00:54:29,759
Speaker 2: tackles allowed. That's a problem against Dylan, Edwards, Weaver and Horn.

1169
00:54:30,320 --> 00:54:33,279
Speaker 2: Now Colorado continues to play every down like it's a

1170
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:35,440
Speaker 2: passing down, right, I don't think there is such thing

1171
00:54:35,440 --> 00:54:37,479
Speaker 2: as a standard down of these guys. There's no trust

1172
00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:40,320
Speaker 2: in the offensive line to open up holes. And Colorado

1173
00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:42,719
Speaker 2: is at least twenty six and passing down success rate

1174
00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:44,640
Speaker 2: something that they're in all the time. And Arizona is

1175
00:54:44,640 --> 00:54:50,239
Speaker 2: one hundred and second defensively in success rate in passing downs.

1176
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:52,040
Speaker 2: I mean, Colorado is gonna be able to move the

1177
00:54:52,080 --> 00:54:54,840
Speaker 2: ball here. I don't see a path where Colorado was

1178
00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:57,680
Speaker 2: just three and out every time. I mean the Arizona

1179
00:54:57,719 --> 00:54:59,960
Speaker 2: secondary is one hundred and sixteenth and on target allowed.

1180
00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:03,280
Speaker 2: They you can't do that against the Colorado wide receivers.

1181
00:55:03,480 --> 00:55:05,839
Speaker 2: Even if it's a short passer, it's a sugar goes deep.

1182
00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:07,680
Speaker 2: I don't know, but Colorad's going to hit their guys

1183
00:55:07,719 --> 00:55:10,040
Speaker 2: in stride, and they're twenty first in red zone TD rate.

1184
00:55:10,200 --> 00:55:11,719
Speaker 2: There's going to be points put up on the board.

1185
00:55:11,719 --> 00:55:13,440
Speaker 2: I don't know if they're going to come in a flurry,

1186
00:55:13,480 --> 00:55:15,080
Speaker 2: if it's going to be the last two possessions. I

1187
00:55:15,120 --> 00:55:17,319
Speaker 2: don't know, but Colorado has a path here to move

1188
00:55:17,360 --> 00:55:19,160
Speaker 2: the ball and gets some points upon the board. And

1189
00:55:19,239 --> 00:55:20,719
Speaker 2: I know this love that you have for Noa fa

1190
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 2: Fida is well deserved. I mean fourteen touchdowns, four interceptions,

1191
00:55:24,200 --> 00:55:25,960
Speaker 2: I get it. But he only has two big time

1192
00:55:26,080 --> 00:55:29,160
Speaker 2: throws and he has six turnover worthy plays. I mean,

1193
00:55:29,200 --> 00:55:31,400
Speaker 2: to me, the offense is more about running back Joanah Coleman.

1194
00:55:31,400 --> 00:55:34,600
Speaker 2: I mean four point eight yards after contact since he's

1195
00:55:34,640 --> 00:55:36,560
Speaker 2: had to be the workhorse, I mean, he is an

1196
00:55:36,640 --> 00:55:40,120
Speaker 2: absolute animal. I'm not saying Colorado can stop that, but

1197
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 2: I make this number seven and a half. That's what

1198
00:55:42,200 --> 00:55:43,880
Speaker 2: got my attention is that this is too high. I

1199
00:55:43,880 --> 00:55:46,839
Speaker 2: think double digits on Colorado's last home game, of the year.

1200
00:55:47,880 --> 00:55:49,880
Speaker 2: I just think it's way too many points. I mean,

1201
00:55:50,520 --> 00:55:54,200
Speaker 2: Arizona is not great. Despite what you see on the

1202
00:55:54,239 --> 00:55:56,520
Speaker 2: scoreboard and all these covers and the fact that they're

1203
00:55:56,560 --> 00:55:59,320
Speaker 2: rising up in the College Footble Playoff ranking, they're not

1204
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:01,839
Speaker 2: as good good throwing the ball is the numbers make

1205
00:56:01,880 --> 00:56:03,840
Speaker 2: them out to be with the Fafida. All Right, I

1206
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:06,160
Speaker 2: get it, I get it. I see it two to

1207
00:56:06,200 --> 00:56:06,840
Speaker 2: six big I.

1208
00:56:06,840 --> 00:56:09,279
Speaker 1: Agree, And look, Fifida is the same as DeLaura a

1209
00:56:09,360 --> 00:56:11,399
Speaker 1: lot of It's just a scheme and they have two

1210
00:56:11,520 --> 00:56:13,719
Speaker 1: excellent ride receivers. Mcgillan's one of the best receivers in

1211
00:56:13,760 --> 00:56:16,680
Speaker 1: the country. They have a good tight end, their pass block.

1212
00:56:17,040 --> 00:56:20,320
Speaker 1: Pass blocking is amazing, and it's it's really well schemed.

1213
00:56:20,560 --> 00:56:24,279
Speaker 1: It's not a huge downfield passing attack. There's just open

1214
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 1: guys all over. The only thing that you need from

1215
00:56:26,120 --> 00:56:29,719
Speaker 1: Fiffida make the throws, don't force it into coverage. That's

1216
00:56:29,760 --> 00:56:31,920
Speaker 1: what DeLaura would do, right, and that's DeLaura what he

1217
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:34,360
Speaker 1: had twenty four picks over the past two seasons. The

1218
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:37,320
Speaker 1: Fiffida is a couple turner, really plays, but he doesn't

1219
00:56:37,400 --> 00:56:40,280
Speaker 1: force the ball. That was what was holding back Arizona's offense.

1220
00:56:40,360 --> 00:56:42,719
Speaker 1: Last year, and I think they're just gonna get a couple.

1221
00:56:42,719 --> 00:56:44,920
Speaker 1: They're gonna get a bunch of sacks, is what I

1222
00:56:44,960 --> 00:56:46,560
Speaker 1: think is gonna stop some Colorado drives. And I just

1223
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:48,719
Speaker 1: don't see Colorado doing that. I don't like that. I

1224
00:56:49,239 --> 00:56:51,560
Speaker 1: agree that Colorada will have success moving the ball through

1225
00:56:51,600 --> 00:56:53,680
Speaker 1: the air at times, and I do worry about a

1226
00:56:53,719 --> 00:56:58,120
Speaker 1: backdoor again, but I just think the difference between the

1227
00:56:58,800 --> 00:57:01,120
Speaker 1: Arizona offense and the car out of defense versus the

1228
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:04,520
Speaker 1: Colorad offense and Arizona defense is drastic.

1229
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:07,200
Speaker 2: I mean, we're literally I'm literally debating like two or

1230
00:57:07,239 --> 00:57:09,160
Speaker 2: three points here because I would not make this bet

1231
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:11,600
Speaker 2: on Arizona at nine. I think there's gonna be some

1232
00:57:11,680 --> 00:57:13,120
Speaker 2: money hit the market. I think it is going to

1233
00:57:13,160 --> 00:57:15,200
Speaker 2: dip below ten at some point. But I wouldn't make

1234
00:57:15,239 --> 00:57:16,920
Speaker 2: this bet at nine. I would make this bet at

1235
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:17,400
Speaker 2: nine and a half.

1236
00:57:17,680 --> 00:57:18,919
Speaker 1: Well, I bet at nine and a half. I would

1237
00:57:18,960 --> 00:57:20,919
Speaker 1: wait to see because you're in Colorado half.

1238
00:57:20,960 --> 00:57:21,640
Speaker 2: I wouldn't make it a.

1239
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:24,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm saying I bet Arizona amount of nine and

1240
00:57:24,120 --> 00:57:29,280
Speaker 1: a half. So ten, oh man, that would be funny

1241
00:57:29,320 --> 00:57:32,000
Speaker 1: for the first sad to All right, let's move on

1242
00:57:32,080 --> 00:57:33,760
Speaker 1: to a game. I have no clue in this game,

1243
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:38,000
Speaker 1: so we'll talk about it. Miami at Florida State. I mean, look,

1244
00:57:38,120 --> 00:57:41,040
Speaker 1: here's the thing I show value on Miami. This is

1245
00:57:41,280 --> 00:57:43,440
Speaker 1: like a rivalry game in Florida. You always take the

1246
00:57:43,520 --> 00:57:46,040
Speaker 1: dog here, like what I took Florida against Florida State

1247
00:57:46,120 --> 00:57:48,560
Speaker 1: last year, no brain, and I was happy to do it.

1248
00:57:49,400 --> 00:57:52,200
Speaker 1: I always take the big dog in these games. But Miami,

1249
00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:55,680
Speaker 1: I just like, so just a brawl. Number stimp point

1250
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:59,160
Speaker 1: of view. And Florida State they have some injuries. I

1251
00:57:59,280 --> 00:58:01,640
Speaker 1: assume Wilson Cole are gonna play, and they were just

1252
00:58:01,680 --> 00:58:03,360
Speaker 1: held out because they were playing the corpse last week.

1253
00:58:03,480 --> 00:58:06,080
Speaker 2: They looked fine last week on the sidelines watching the game.

1254
00:58:06,560 --> 00:58:09,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I assume that they're gonna play. Florida State's

1255
00:58:09,120 --> 00:58:11,200
Speaker 1: fourteen point favorite. You're probably gonna have a battle in

1256
00:58:11,280 --> 00:58:14,240
Speaker 1: the market here because this number's gonna be all place.

1257
00:58:14,240 --> 00:58:16,479
Speaker 1: You're gonna people that just say, look, there's too many points.

1258
00:58:16,560 --> 00:58:18,919
Speaker 1: It's a rivalry. I make it lower. Then you're gonna

1259
00:58:18,920 --> 00:58:23,480
Speaker 1: have people say Van Dyke is done, he's hurt, and

1260
00:58:23,960 --> 00:58:27,880
Speaker 1: that's why you can't play Miami. And Florida State's gonna cruise.

1261
00:58:28,800 --> 00:58:31,480
Speaker 1: I don't know what's wrong. I assume Van Dyke is hurt.

1262
00:58:32,080 --> 00:58:35,280
Speaker 1: And if that's the case, then and they're trotting them

1263
00:58:35,280 --> 00:58:38,600
Speaker 1: out there, you can't play Miami. But and then also

1264
00:58:38,600 --> 00:58:40,960
Speaker 1: the other thing is like Florida State is so good

1265
00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:44,000
Speaker 1: at their peaks, and they go into these just at

1266
00:58:44,040 --> 00:58:47,200
Speaker 1: they go into like hibernation mode for entire halves. They've

1267
00:58:47,240 --> 00:58:49,840
Speaker 1: done it so many times this year they've been very inconsistent.

1268
00:58:50,160 --> 00:58:53,760
Speaker 1: So I don't know. But Van Dyke against NC State

1269
00:58:54,160 --> 00:58:55,920
Speaker 1: was twenty one to thirty eight for one hundred and

1270
00:58:55,960 --> 00:58:59,479
Speaker 1: seventy yards, no touchdowns, and three picks. The week before

1271
00:58:59,520 --> 00:59:03,360
Speaker 1: against for we're not talking about the eighty five Bears,

1272
00:59:04,320 --> 00:59:06,720
Speaker 1: twenty to thirty one hundred and sixty yards, no touchdowns,

1273
00:59:06,720 --> 00:59:10,160
Speaker 1: two picks. He has no touchdowns, five interceptions, and he's

1274
00:59:10,200 --> 00:59:14,440
Speaker 1: thrown it for what three hundred and fifty total yards

1275
00:59:14,480 --> 00:59:18,600
Speaker 1: on seventy attempts over the past two weeks. I mean,

1276
00:59:18,720 --> 00:59:23,000
Speaker 1: he's either hurt or he just woke up and someone

1277
00:59:23,080 --> 00:59:26,600
Speaker 1: took all of his talent and sent it to Tucson

1278
00:59:26,640 --> 00:59:29,000
Speaker 1: and gave it to Arizona for a big another boost.

1279
00:59:29,360 --> 00:59:32,320
Speaker 1: I just can't back Miami after seeing what I've seen

1280
00:59:32,600 --> 00:59:34,920
Speaker 1: from Van Dyke over the past two weeks. If I

1281
00:59:34,960 --> 00:59:38,000
Speaker 1: had a healthy Van Dyke here two touchdowns, please give

1282
00:59:38,040 --> 00:59:38,320
Speaker 1: it to me.

1283
00:59:38,720 --> 00:59:41,120
Speaker 2: It's the over for me. I think it's two things

1284
00:59:41,200 --> 00:59:45,040
Speaker 2: going on with TVD Tyler van Dime, which he trademarked.

1285
00:59:45,800 --> 00:59:48,280
Speaker 2: I think one is that he's had that finger injury.

1286
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:51,880
Speaker 2: He's had some nicks and bruises. The other one too,

1287
00:59:52,240 --> 00:59:54,600
Speaker 2: if you go into it, they don't change their routtree.

1288
00:59:54,640 --> 00:59:56,600
Speaker 2: They're running the same pass as they were running week one,

1289
00:59:56,680 --> 00:59:58,840
Speaker 2: Week two, Week three. I mean, it's just not a

1290
00:59:58,960 --> 01:00:02,000
Speaker 2: creative offense. What's so that makes it pretty easy to

1291
01:00:02,080 --> 01:00:04,760
Speaker 2: jump routes and take things back? Last week pretty bad, right,

1292
01:00:04,760 --> 01:00:07,080
Speaker 2: I mean, Tony White' three three five is really tough

1293
01:00:07,120 --> 01:00:09,240
Speaker 2: to go up against, no matter if you're changing round

1294
01:00:09,240 --> 01:00:12,240
Speaker 2: trees or changing plays, what doesn't matter. So now you're

1295
01:00:12,280 --> 01:00:15,000
Speaker 2: gonna get a Florida State team that smoked them forty

1296
01:00:15,080 --> 01:00:18,280
Speaker 2: five to three and smoked Pitt last week, did about

1297
01:00:18,320 --> 01:00:20,240
Speaker 2: the same against Wait two weeks ago. Ever since the

1298
01:00:20,320 --> 01:00:23,200
Speaker 2: Duke cover, I think Florida State reminds me of Bobby

1299
01:00:23,240 --> 01:00:25,680
Speaker 2: Bowden mode. Right, It's like college wall playoff ring has

1300
01:00:25,720 --> 01:00:27,880
Speaker 2: come out. We got to smoke everybody by fifty points,

1301
01:00:28,520 --> 01:00:30,240
Speaker 2: so I don't.

1302
01:00:30,080 --> 01:00:32,200
Speaker 1: Think it's the other two. And I've heard I've got

1303
01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:36,400
Speaker 1: some of my sharper friends that that are hit the

1304
01:00:36,480 --> 01:00:38,640
Speaker 1: over two. But aren't you concerned? Did that just Van

1305
01:00:38,720 --> 01:00:40,240
Speaker 1: Dyke is gonna? Did they just gonna be able to

1306
01:00:40,280 --> 01:00:40,640
Speaker 1: do nothing?

1307
01:00:41,000 --> 01:00:42,520
Speaker 2: Give me fourteen? Yeah?

1308
01:00:42,560 --> 01:00:42,880
Speaker 1: I am.

1309
01:00:43,160 --> 01:00:45,040
Speaker 2: But if you can give me fourteen points out of Miami,

1310
01:00:45,080 --> 01:00:47,000
Speaker 2: I think we're getting the over here over fifty one.

1311
01:00:47,240 --> 01:00:49,400
Speaker 2: So I don't think we need a lot out of Miami.

1312
01:00:50,080 --> 01:00:52,000
Speaker 2: I don't trust Florida State to shut them out. I

1313
01:00:52,040 --> 01:00:54,520
Speaker 2: mean Miami, Miami. I think Miami can get thirteen to

1314
01:00:54,600 --> 01:00:57,320
Speaker 2: seventeen points here, but I just would not be surprised

1315
01:00:57,360 --> 01:01:00,200
Speaker 2: to see Florida State throw forty five plus up here.

1316
01:01:00,240 --> 01:01:01,880
Speaker 2: Maybe maybe the play for me is a team total

1317
01:01:01,920 --> 01:01:04,560
Speaker 2: over and not have to worry about Miami, because I mean,

1318
01:01:04,640 --> 01:01:07,440
Speaker 2: I actually you know what I'm gonna. I'm gonna bet it.

1319
01:01:07,480 --> 01:01:09,120
Speaker 2: You can go ahead and preview the next game I'm betting,

1320
01:01:09,160 --> 01:01:11,040
Speaker 2: and then you don't have the team total over. Yeah,

1321
01:01:11,040 --> 01:01:12,080
Speaker 2: I don't have to worry about Miami.

1322
01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:12,600
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1323
01:01:13,000 --> 01:01:13,120
Speaker 2: Uh.

1324
01:01:13,240 --> 01:01:15,920
Speaker 1: And then if Miami's offense is good, you'd probably get

1325
01:01:15,960 --> 01:01:18,240
Speaker 1: there anyway, right, and then you'll have a bigger shootout.

1326
01:01:18,440 --> 01:01:21,320
Speaker 1: But if it's not, you can still get there regardless. Yeah,

1327
01:01:21,960 --> 01:01:25,400
Speaker 1: it's just I can't get there with not knowing what.

1328
01:01:25,640 --> 01:01:27,360
Speaker 1: By the way, christ of Baul lost him another game

1329
01:01:27,440 --> 01:01:30,160
Speaker 1: last week. I mean, how many how many games is

1330
01:01:30,200 --> 01:01:35,200
Speaker 1: this guy gonna cost Miami? It's unbelievable. USC Oregon. I mean,

1331
01:01:35,960 --> 01:01:39,560
Speaker 1: Oregon's laying over two touchdowns here. I have Look, this

1332
01:01:39,720 --> 01:01:42,960
Speaker 1: is the thing with Oregon should run wild all day,

1333
01:01:43,440 --> 01:01:45,680
Speaker 1: do whatever they want like everyone does against USC. The

1334
01:01:45,840 --> 01:01:48,720
Speaker 1: USC's offense should have success. They can run it, throw

1335
01:01:48,800 --> 01:01:53,120
Speaker 1: it against pretty much anybody, but Oregon's defense. It's better

1336
01:01:53,160 --> 01:01:55,560
Speaker 1: than Washington. It's not gonna be as easy. But here's

1337
01:01:55,600 --> 01:01:57,640
Speaker 1: the thing that's and the hardest thing about when you

1338
01:01:57,720 --> 01:02:01,200
Speaker 1: bet UFC is Caleb Caleb to do so much because

1339
01:02:01,200 --> 01:02:03,000
Speaker 1: the offensive line isn't as great, the wide receivers are

1340
01:02:03,000 --> 01:02:05,160
Speaker 1: on at as great as they were last week last year,

1341
01:02:05,440 --> 01:02:07,320
Speaker 1: he has to do so much to keep up, and

1342
01:02:07,360 --> 01:02:09,160
Speaker 1: a lot of times because the offensive line isn't as good,

1343
01:02:09,200 --> 01:02:11,640
Speaker 1: he's scrambling all around. Right, it's got to have the

1344
01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:14,600
Speaker 1: ball in harm's way. If there's one fumble, we're gone.

1345
01:02:14,640 --> 01:02:15,960
Speaker 1: For a bit two or three, then you lose by

1346
01:02:16,120 --> 01:02:19,400
Speaker 1: forty like Notre Dame. One fumble. Now the team scores

1347
01:02:19,400 --> 01:02:22,000
Speaker 1: seven right away, and then you're down to possessions right like.

1348
01:02:22,320 --> 01:02:26,880
Speaker 1: The margins for USC are so thin because they never

1349
01:02:27,040 --> 01:02:30,000
Speaker 1: get any stops. I don't know how they get stops here.

1350
01:02:31,400 --> 01:02:33,400
Speaker 1: I mean, I can't labor fourteen and a half against

1351
01:02:33,400 --> 01:02:36,640
Speaker 1: that USC offense because the back door here, I mean

1352
01:02:37,520 --> 01:02:41,400
Speaker 1: is so wide open. The other factor that I just can't.

1353
01:02:41,800 --> 01:02:45,280
Speaker 1: I don't really know what to expect. Alex Grinch got

1354
01:02:45,360 --> 01:02:47,880
Speaker 1: fired for USC. Can they really change much in a week?

1355
01:02:47,880 --> 01:02:48,200
Speaker 2: I don't know.

1356
01:02:48,280 --> 01:02:50,280
Speaker 1: Does the defense play more inspired because a lot of

1357
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:53,040
Speaker 1: what USC's they don't. They don't their scheme is awhole.

1358
01:02:53,040 --> 01:02:55,280
Speaker 1: They don't adjust. But a lot of it is just

1359
01:02:55,360 --> 01:03:00,000
Speaker 1: like the careless tackling and just one of the worst tacks.

1360
01:03:00,120 --> 01:03:02,040
Speaker 1: These are my hut. Do they come out like more

1361
01:03:02,120 --> 01:03:04,560
Speaker 1: fired up now the Grinch has gone, and just tackle better?

1362
01:03:04,760 --> 01:03:07,520
Speaker 1: Just from a basic football perspective, I don't know. It's

1363
01:03:07,720 --> 01:03:10,000
Speaker 1: very hard to quantify. Just stay away from me. Total

1364
01:03:10,080 --> 01:03:12,600
Speaker 1: seventy three too high scoring teams in the country. I

1365
01:03:12,680 --> 01:03:14,600
Speaker 1: think D two high scoring. Do you have anything in

1366
01:03:14,640 --> 01:03:16,960
Speaker 1: the USC organ I took the under. I know that

1367
01:03:17,040 --> 01:03:17,600
Speaker 1: sounds crazy.

1368
01:03:17,640 --> 01:03:19,880
Speaker 2: I took it at seventy four, got down to seventy three,

1369
01:03:20,080 --> 01:03:22,240
Speaker 2: rocketed back up to seventy five and a half today

1370
01:03:22,440 --> 01:03:27,720
Speaker 2: I speed might hit it again. So the new USC

1371
01:03:28,480 --> 01:03:32,919
Speaker 2: interim DC's there's two of them, both said this week,

1372
01:03:33,600 --> 01:03:35,840
Speaker 2: we're not going to change anything scammatically. We are simply

1373
01:03:35,960 --> 01:03:40,720
Speaker 2: looking for a spark, just like come on, man, come on,

1374
01:03:40,840 --> 01:03:42,720
Speaker 2: you're looking for a spark at this point in the season.

1375
01:03:42,800 --> 01:03:45,080
Speaker 2: No Pack total futures, no national title futures like it.

1376
01:03:45,200 --> 01:03:47,680
Speaker 2: Things are just going downhill so fast. You got Caleb.

1377
01:03:48,200 --> 01:03:50,080
Speaker 2: Who knows where Caleb's at emotionally. We'll get to that

1378
01:03:50,120 --> 01:03:53,560
Speaker 2: side of the ball. But you're looking for a spark. Listen,

1379
01:03:54,040 --> 01:03:56,160
Speaker 2: I think bo Nix is winning a Heisman and the

1380
01:03:56,240 --> 01:03:57,920
Speaker 2: Oregon is going to be in the College ball playoff.

1381
01:03:58,800 --> 01:04:00,880
Speaker 2: If you played the Pack Tel che Mpitship game right now,

1382
01:04:01,040 --> 01:04:03,920
Speaker 2: I would make it Orgon minus four over Washington Lo

1383
01:04:04,080 --> 01:04:06,080
Speaker 2: and behold. I went out and looked at the look aheadline.

1384
01:04:06,360 --> 01:04:10,280
Speaker 2: It's six. I'm shocked. Oregon minus six, and you know

1385
01:04:10,360 --> 01:04:12,680
Speaker 2: what they're probably going to cover that. Oregon is an

1386
01:04:12,720 --> 01:04:15,520
Speaker 2: absolute freight train right now. I expect Dan Lanning to

1387
01:04:15,560 --> 01:04:18,240
Speaker 2: put up a very healthy amount of points. But think

1388
01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:21,000
Speaker 2: about this. Organ is playing great defense right now. No

1389
01:04:21,080 --> 01:04:25,560
Speaker 2: one's talking about it because it's Bonnick season, Bonicks Heisman season.

1390
01:04:25,480 --> 01:04:26,560
Speaker 1: Bow Nicks season.

1391
01:04:26,680 --> 01:04:30,640
Speaker 2: Then full effect the defense is being overlook The Ducks

1392
01:04:30,680 --> 01:04:32,560
Speaker 2: are top twenty in the nation three and outs, they're

1393
01:04:32,600 --> 01:04:34,640
Speaker 2: top twenty in the nation, drives less than twenty five

1394
01:04:34,720 --> 01:04:36,760
Speaker 2: yards their top twenty in the nation, and drives that

1395
01:04:36,840 --> 01:04:39,400
Speaker 2: don't get past the fifty yard line. When you switch

1396
01:04:39,440 --> 01:04:41,760
Speaker 2: over to the Trojans defense, it's all like bottom twenty.

1397
01:04:42,360 --> 01:04:45,360
Speaker 2: So Organ's gonna get whatever they want whenever they want.

1398
01:04:45,480 --> 01:04:47,400
Speaker 2: You think that the easy bet is going to be

1399
01:04:47,960 --> 01:04:50,200
Speaker 2: to take them to cover the spread. But what happens

1400
01:04:50,200 --> 01:04:53,880
Speaker 2: if Lanning wants to run the ball exclusively? Looks like

1401
01:04:53,920 --> 01:04:56,000
Speaker 2: Bucky Irving's going to play right. What if he wants

1402
01:04:56,040 --> 01:04:57,840
Speaker 2: to take the load off of Bonnicks after he gets

1403
01:04:57,880 --> 01:05:00,120
Speaker 2: his numbers. What happens if they're up twenty eight and

1404
01:05:00,160 --> 01:05:02,240
Speaker 2: they want to slow it down. What happens if he

1405
01:05:02,280 --> 01:05:03,760
Speaker 2: wants to go forward on fourth and one at the

1406
01:05:03,840 --> 01:05:05,880
Speaker 2: thirty three and they don't convert, which they should.

1407
01:05:07,440 --> 01:05:08,160
Speaker 1: To me, this is an.

1408
01:05:08,200 --> 01:05:11,000
Speaker 2: Underplay all the way I see bo getting his numbers.

1409
01:05:11,240 --> 01:05:14,560
Speaker 2: I don't believe in the USC offense getting their number

1410
01:05:14,720 --> 01:05:17,000
Speaker 2: of yards based on what Oregon has done on defense

1411
01:05:17,040 --> 01:05:19,919
Speaker 2: so far this year, Oregon has allowed only twenty six

1412
01:05:20,040 --> 01:05:23,640
Speaker 2: red zone trips all season. They rank eighteenth an opponent

1413
01:05:23,760 --> 01:05:28,640
Speaker 2: touchdown percentage. They you hired Dan Lanning, the defensive coordinator

1414
01:05:28,680 --> 01:05:31,120
Speaker 2: of Georgia, to bring in a stout defense and do

1415
01:05:31,240 --> 01:05:35,200
Speaker 2: what Georgia does. They're getting there with Pac twelve talent,

1416
01:05:35,920 --> 01:05:37,920
Speaker 2: but nobody's talking about it because Bonix is going to

1417
01:05:38,000 --> 01:05:40,080
Speaker 2: win the Heisman and Organ's going to be in the playoff.

1418
01:05:40,320 --> 01:05:42,560
Speaker 2: I'm taking the under here, you know what, let it

1419
01:05:42,640 --> 01:05:43,880
Speaker 2: go back up a seventy five and a half. I'm

1420
01:05:43,880 --> 01:05:45,600
Speaker 2: gonna take it again. I'll probably take it on Saturday

1421
01:05:45,640 --> 01:05:46,200
Speaker 2: as the best bet.

1422
01:05:46,720 --> 01:05:49,720
Speaker 1: Got speed one final one here app State at Georgia State.

1423
01:05:49,720 --> 01:05:52,040
Speaker 1: APP State can't defend the run Georgia State. They run it.

1424
01:05:52,240 --> 01:05:53,840
Speaker 1: That's what they want to do. Is it the handicap?

1425
01:05:53,920 --> 01:05:57,520
Speaker 2: That simple, right, I've taken ULM and Southern Miss on

1426
01:05:57,600 --> 01:06:00,320
Speaker 2: Saturday's live show is the best bet against APPS State.

1427
01:06:00,640 --> 01:06:03,320
Speaker 2: I hate app State. Number one rush explosives in the

1428
01:06:03,400 --> 01:06:06,760
Speaker 2: Nation of Marcus Carroll Georgia State. He has forty runs

1429
01:06:06,760 --> 01:06:10,160
Speaker 2: of at least ten yards. Quarterback Darren Granger, who is

1430
01:06:10,240 --> 01:06:13,000
Speaker 2: his running mate there with RPO six hundred and forty

1431
01:06:13,040 --> 01:06:15,120
Speaker 2: yards on the ground. Five hundred and seventy six of

1432
01:06:15,160 --> 01:06:19,520
Speaker 2: that is a designed run. App State terrible. Every single

1433
01:06:19,720 --> 01:06:23,600
Speaker 2: rushing defensive rushing metric you can think of bottom ten

1434
01:06:23,720 --> 01:06:27,439
Speaker 2: stuff for eight, bottom twenty broken tackles allowed. It's so bad,

1435
01:06:27,600 --> 01:06:30,320
Speaker 2: like this is not same app State team. So Georgia State,

1436
01:06:30,400 --> 01:06:34,760
Speaker 2: please rush explosives. Granger, Carol, let's go all right, good

1437
01:06:34,800 --> 01:06:36,760
Speaker 2: stuff there, Let's move on to some trash.

1438
01:06:37,400 --> 01:06:39,240
Speaker 3: The trash man pick of the week.

1439
01:06:39,840 --> 01:06:40,919
Speaker 1: I'm the trash man.

1440
01:06:41,240 --> 01:06:44,120
Speaker 2: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it,

1441
01:06:44,600 --> 01:06:46,960
Speaker 2: totally unreliable, undependable it.

1442
01:06:47,080 --> 01:06:48,640
Speaker 1: That's it. You've been told off. How do you like that?

1443
01:06:49,080 --> 01:06:49,280
Speaker 2: Good?

1444
01:06:50,160 --> 01:06:52,919
Speaker 1: I'll start with and then I'll get your thoughts.

1445
01:06:52,920 --> 01:06:54,640
Speaker 2: Which one of these teams is the trash? When you

1446
01:06:54,720 --> 01:06:56,080
Speaker 2: put this up there, it's like, which one of these

1447
01:06:56,120 --> 01:06:57,760
Speaker 2: teams are you considering to be the trash?

1448
01:06:58,080 --> 01:07:00,840
Speaker 1: All right, well we're gonna start. Votak's not trapped, went

1449
01:07:00,880 --> 01:07:05,080
Speaker 1: over the window total they are bo eligible. Votek go

1450
01:07:05,160 --> 01:07:07,880
Speaker 1: buying low and vattack here. They got drummed by Louisville

1451
01:07:07,880 --> 01:07:09,680
Speaker 1: thirty four to three last week, but before that they

1452
01:07:09,720 --> 01:07:11,720
Speaker 1: were trending up with drones and quarterback. Three and one

1453
01:07:11,760 --> 01:07:14,080
Speaker 1: in acc played, they only lost to Florida State. Against

1454
01:07:14,120 --> 01:07:15,960
Speaker 1: teams of their same weight class, they scored thirty eight,

1455
01:07:16,080 --> 01:07:19,320
Speaker 1: thirty and thirty eight, won each of them by seventeen plus.

1456
01:07:19,800 --> 01:07:22,040
Speaker 1: They should be motivated here BC maybe a little bit

1457
01:07:22,040 --> 01:07:25,360
Speaker 1: of a letdown. Clinched Bowl and look they've won five

1458
01:07:25,400 --> 01:07:27,800
Speaker 1: straight overall. But here's where they be. The corpse of

1459
01:07:27,840 --> 01:07:31,800
Speaker 1: Syracuse in the last minute touchdown, Army on a last

1460
01:07:31,840 --> 01:07:36,920
Speaker 1: minute touchdown, Virginia on a last minute touchdown, Yukon by

1461
01:07:36,960 --> 01:07:41,040
Speaker 1: a touchdown, and then wildly unpredictable odd ubber game Georgia Tech,

1462
01:07:41,080 --> 01:07:44,800
Speaker 1: who stinks. So four of those teams are really bad teams,

1463
01:07:44,800 --> 01:07:46,480
Speaker 1: all by one possession. They've been getting really locked. They

1464
01:07:46,520 --> 01:07:48,840
Speaker 1: also be wholly crossed by three at home. They easily

1465
01:07:48,880 --> 01:07:51,800
Speaker 1: could be three and six on the season. So look,

1466
01:07:52,720 --> 01:07:54,320
Speaker 1: Costiana is going to get a lot with his legs,

1467
01:07:54,800 --> 01:07:56,880
Speaker 1: but their running back room is banged up. Darones can

1468
01:07:56,880 --> 01:07:58,920
Speaker 1: get a lot with his legs. Droones will just make

1469
01:07:58,960 --> 01:08:01,760
Speaker 1: Cup more throws. Tech by their pet secondary has been great,

1470
01:08:01,800 --> 01:08:04,880
Speaker 1: the top top ten in EPA for past they and

1471
01:08:05,040 --> 01:08:08,480
Speaker 1: success rate. So Vattech, Bilo spot here motivated to get

1472
01:08:08,520 --> 01:08:10,160
Speaker 1: to a bowl BC. Maybe a little leftown may be

1473
01:08:10,200 --> 01:08:13,040
Speaker 1: get lucky close games. I'll buy loo here on Vo Tech.

1474
01:08:13,200 --> 01:08:14,280
Speaker 1: What I love garbage?

1475
01:08:15,000 --> 01:08:16,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can, I can. You can make a case

1476
01:08:16,960 --> 01:08:18,439
Speaker 2: for that, and I'll probably join you on this. My

1477
01:08:18,520 --> 01:08:21,320
Speaker 2: one worries of Virginia Tech is so poor in defensive

1478
01:08:21,320 --> 01:08:23,960
Speaker 2: finishing drives one hundred and fourteenth, but low and behold,

1479
01:08:23,960 --> 01:08:26,320
Speaker 2: Boston College not too great in the red zone themselves,

1480
01:08:26,360 --> 01:08:28,280
Speaker 2: so it's not that big of a worry as it

1481
01:08:28,560 --> 01:08:30,800
Speaker 2: was when I took Virginia Tech a couple other times

1482
01:08:30,840 --> 01:08:32,760
Speaker 2: this year. So yeah, join you.

1483
01:08:33,640 --> 01:08:36,880
Speaker 1: Fortsworth Conference road teams that failed to cover in their

1484
01:08:36,920 --> 01:08:39,720
Speaker 1: previous game by over three touchdowns speaks to kind of

1485
01:08:39,720 --> 01:08:43,080
Speaker 1: the bylow nature. Uh next week seventy forty six and

1486
01:08:43,200 --> 01:08:46,000
Speaker 1: three sixty point three percent. The following we covered by

1487
01:08:46,000 --> 01:08:49,000
Speaker 1: about over four points per game. Next trash. So got

1488
01:08:49,040 --> 01:08:53,400
Speaker 1: one agreement there. Let's go fuck my life. Let's go

1489
01:08:53,560 --> 01:08:56,200
Speaker 1: Purdue against Minnesota.

1490
01:08:56,680 --> 01:08:59,800
Speaker 2: Not too scared are you? After what happened two weeks ago. No.

1491
01:09:00,040 --> 01:09:02,280
Speaker 1: I mean, look, Purdue's played a top five schedule for

1492
01:09:02,400 --> 01:09:04,880
Speaker 1: my numbers, They've I mean they've played Their schedule has

1493
01:09:04,880 --> 01:09:08,320
Speaker 1: been ridiculous. Minnesota's played a much easier schedule. The Minnesota

1494
01:09:08,439 --> 01:09:12,720
Speaker 1: offense stinks. They stink. Calg Madus against man coverage has

1495
01:09:12,760 --> 01:09:17,519
Speaker 1: been horrendous. That's all Purdue runs. So and look this

1496
01:09:17,840 --> 01:09:20,799
Speaker 1: this producing. They've had a ton of injuries, but Minnesota

1497
01:09:20,840 --> 01:09:23,040
Speaker 1: secondary is vulnerable. This is also just a terrible spot.

1498
01:09:23,240 --> 01:09:27,559
Speaker 1: Like Minnesota's coming off that heartbreaking loss, they have Ohio

1499
01:09:27,760 --> 01:09:32,120
Speaker 1: State on deck. You know, this is Purdue's basically their season.

1500
01:09:32,160 --> 01:09:33,920
Speaker 1: They have two clowns on deck. They're not going to

1501
01:09:34,000 --> 01:09:37,639
Speaker 1: a bowl ruined Minnesota season. And for what it's worth,

1502
01:09:37,720 --> 01:09:42,120
Speaker 1: Ryan Walters while he's at Illinois, completely owned PJ Flex offense.

1503
01:09:43,439 --> 01:09:44,679
Speaker 1: I think Purdue gets this done.

1504
01:09:45,680 --> 01:09:48,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with you. At have a gonna play

1505
01:09:48,040 --> 01:09:50,479
Speaker 2: a big factor here, and you have to be able

1506
01:09:50,560 --> 01:09:52,439
Speaker 2: to defend the run a little bit since Minnesota loves

1507
01:09:52,479 --> 01:09:55,080
Speaker 2: to run it so much. And Purdue actually has some

1508
01:09:55,439 --> 01:09:59,680
Speaker 2: really decent defensive rush numbers and the fifth strength of

1509
01:09:59,680 --> 01:10:00,360
Speaker 2: schedule the nation.

1510
01:10:01,040 --> 01:10:04,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, the only their biggest blemish on Rundy and their

1511
01:10:04,560 --> 01:10:08,160
Speaker 1: defense line held up against Michigan last week. Their only

1512
01:10:08,240 --> 01:10:11,280
Speaker 1: rough blemish is against running quarterbacks. Don't have that here.

1513
01:10:12,400 --> 01:10:14,360
Speaker 1: Let's go this one. I really like. I don't mind

1514
01:10:14,360 --> 01:10:17,439
Speaker 1: this one. San Jose State around a pick minus one

1515
01:10:17,479 --> 01:10:20,160
Speaker 1: against Presno State coming off of a bye. They've turned

1516
01:10:20,160 --> 01:10:23,200
Speaker 1: their season around three straight dominant wins after one and

1517
01:10:23,280 --> 01:10:25,320
Speaker 1: five start. They also had a hard schedule early in

1518
01:10:25,320 --> 01:10:28,639
Speaker 1: the season. They played USC and Oregon State. This Presno

1519
01:10:28,720 --> 01:10:31,439
Speaker 1: State team, I'm just haven't been that impressed. Yeah, they

1520
01:10:31,479 --> 01:10:33,400
Speaker 1: covered last week. They got a kick return for a touchdown,

1521
01:10:33,439 --> 01:10:35,360
Speaker 1: they broke a run late, they got a kick return

1522
01:10:35,360 --> 01:10:37,240
Speaker 1: touchdown with on the last play the first half. By

1523
01:10:37,280 --> 01:10:39,680
Speaker 1: the way, but here's their wins. They have five one

1524
01:10:39,760 --> 01:10:45,320
Speaker 1: possession wins over Boise probably should have lost Eastern Washington, Purdue,

1525
01:10:45,960 --> 01:10:49,080
Speaker 1: Utah State, and UNLV not exactly Murder's rud. You know,

1526
01:10:49,280 --> 01:10:51,280
Speaker 1: we want to know what else. They beat Kent State,

1527
01:10:51,400 --> 01:10:54,400
Speaker 1: Nevada and at Arizona State team that was down to

1528
01:10:54,479 --> 01:10:57,320
Speaker 1: their seventh string quarterback and had eight turnovers. I have

1529
01:10:57,400 --> 01:10:59,880
Speaker 1: their strength schedule ranked outside the top one hundred. Santase

1530
01:11:00,000 --> 01:11:02,240
Speaker 1: State much tougher schedule started, you know, Like I said,

1531
01:11:02,720 --> 01:11:06,000
Speaker 1: UFC Oregon State. They also lost their two best defensive

1532
01:11:06,040 --> 01:11:09,600
Speaker 1: linemen in program history, probably Foco and Kate Hall. They

1533
01:11:09,680 --> 01:11:12,559
Speaker 1: lost their two best receivers, lost a lot from last

1534
01:11:12,600 --> 01:11:15,240
Speaker 1: year's team. Took them a while to get going bye

1535
01:11:15,360 --> 01:11:17,680
Speaker 1: even more important now can work out some kinks. They

1536
01:11:17,720 --> 01:11:22,519
Speaker 1: got some momentum playing for bow eligibility in a rivalry

1537
01:11:22,600 --> 01:11:26,160
Speaker 1: game here, and their rundee's still really bad because they

1538
01:11:26,200 --> 01:11:29,120
Speaker 1: lost Paul on Poco. But for President State, very past, heavy,

1539
01:11:29,400 --> 01:11:33,400
Speaker 1: not really efficient running the ball. So I like Santese

1540
01:11:33,479 --> 01:11:35,599
Speaker 1: say here Brett Brennan, their head coach, nineteen on eleven

1541
01:11:35,880 --> 01:11:38,040
Speaker 1: against the spread as an underdog in league play sixty

1542
01:11:38,080 --> 01:11:40,519
Speaker 1: three percent. I think San Jose State pulls this off

1543
01:11:40,520 --> 01:11:41,120
Speaker 1: against Presdo.

1544
01:11:42,080 --> 01:11:44,000
Speaker 2: I'm going to pass on this one. I don't see

1545
01:11:44,080 --> 01:11:45,960
Speaker 2: enough in the San Jose State defense to be able

1546
01:11:46,000 --> 01:11:50,599
Speaker 2: to stop that heavy, vaunted, scary mikey Keane passing attack.

1547
01:11:50,680 --> 01:11:50,800
Speaker 1: Now.

1548
01:11:51,120 --> 01:11:53,599
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think Fresde can you know? Definitely

1549
01:11:53,720 --> 01:11:55,479
Speaker 2: not an endorsement of Presno. I just don't see enough

1550
01:11:55,479 --> 01:11:56,639
Speaker 2: in the San Jose State defense.

1551
01:11:56,920 --> 01:11:57,360
Speaker 1: Let's go.

1552
01:11:58,320 --> 01:11:58,960
Speaker 2: This one's gross.

1553
01:11:59,400 --> 01:12:03,240
Speaker 1: Let's go way forrest against NC State number one. This spot,

1554
01:12:03,479 --> 01:12:07,519
Speaker 1: I mean, look NC State coming off two massive, massive

1555
01:12:07,600 --> 01:12:11,960
Speaker 1: wins to get to bow eligibility. They beat Clemson and

1556
01:12:12,680 --> 01:12:17,719
Speaker 1: then they beat Miami. Already talked about that game against

1557
01:12:17,760 --> 01:12:21,479
Speaker 1: Miami last week. Miami just I mean number one Van

1558
01:12:21,520 --> 01:12:24,120
Speaker 1: Dyke looked off all and they vomited fourth and goal

1559
01:12:24,840 --> 01:12:27,000
Speaker 1: with a chance to win that game. Go back to

1560
01:12:27,080 --> 01:12:29,800
Speaker 1: the Clemson game. They were out gaming three sixty four

1561
01:12:29,840 --> 01:12:32,160
Speaker 1: to two h two plus two and turnovers. They had

1562
01:12:32,200 --> 01:12:34,760
Speaker 1: a pick six Clemson turned it over on the game

1563
01:12:34,880 --> 01:12:37,840
Speaker 1: time potential drive. Miami alcane n C State two ninety

1564
01:12:37,840 --> 01:12:40,959
Speaker 1: two to two thirty one, four turnovers with an injured quarterback.

1565
01:12:41,280 --> 01:12:43,360
Speaker 1: Everything broke n C State's play the past two games.

1566
01:12:44,080 --> 01:12:46,880
Speaker 1: Wake Forest great at defending the run, top twenty five

1567
01:12:46,960 --> 01:12:49,519
Speaker 1: national EPA per Russell aut NC State can't throw it

1568
01:12:50,080 --> 01:12:53,080
Speaker 1: with Brendan Armstrong at quarterback, and that's what it's gonna

1569
01:12:53,080 --> 01:12:55,439
Speaker 1: because MJ. Morris is leaving the program a red shirting,

1570
01:12:56,120 --> 01:12:59,120
Speaker 1: so I don't know what's going on. From that perspective,

1571
01:12:59,400 --> 01:13:00,599
Speaker 1: I have it about a one and a half point

1572
01:13:00,640 --> 01:13:03,799
Speaker 1: down grade to Armstrong. You got to remember Alan Nemik,

1573
01:13:03,880 --> 01:13:06,320
Speaker 1: the SENCI State offense was earlier in the season with

1574
01:13:06,520 --> 01:13:09,320
Speaker 1: Armstrong at the helm wig Forest extra day to prepare

1575
01:13:09,439 --> 01:13:12,280
Speaker 1: playing for bow eligibility. They won't get much on the ground,

1576
01:13:12,320 --> 01:13:13,840
Speaker 1: but Griff has found a little bit of rhythm. Last

1577
01:13:13,840 --> 01:13:17,120
Speaker 1: week ugly ugly game here ugly should be low scoring.

1578
01:13:17,680 --> 01:13:20,040
Speaker 1: I think lost him of his team. Ready left down

1579
01:13:20,040 --> 01:13:22,160
Speaker 1: spoty of Frenzy State. Give me the demon decks.

1580
01:13:22,640 --> 01:13:24,720
Speaker 2: Yo, you missed the biggest handicap of the game, which

1581
01:13:24,800 --> 01:13:28,280
Speaker 2: is whether Steve Smith is gonna call in c State

1582
01:13:28,320 --> 01:13:31,360
Speaker 2: a basketball school? Right, tell Steve Smith in the studio

1583
01:13:31,400 --> 01:13:33,599
Speaker 2: they s ain't a basketball school. He can kiss with ass.

1584
01:13:34,120 --> 01:13:37,000
Speaker 2: Interestingly enough, out of the last ten years, with the

1585
01:13:37,040 --> 01:13:40,680
Speaker 2: exception maybe one iteration, the home team always wins this game.

1586
01:13:41,640 --> 01:13:45,599
Speaker 2: So I don't know. You know, if I can shed

1587
01:13:45,720 --> 01:13:49,920
Speaker 2: my hard earned money on wake Forest, it'd be Toughila

1588
01:13:49,920 --> 01:13:52,800
Speaker 2: goes against everything I've said this year. But Robin, Yeah,

1589
01:13:52,920 --> 01:13:54,479
Speaker 2: we'll throw you know what, Let's do that. We'll throw

1590
01:13:54,560 --> 01:13:55,960
Speaker 2: him in the round, Robin. I'll put him out there

1591
01:13:56,439 --> 01:13:56,960
Speaker 2: for what's worth.

1592
01:13:57,040 --> 01:13:59,360
Speaker 1: Dave Clawson fifty one to thirty eight one gets his

1593
01:13:59,400 --> 01:14:01,760
Speaker 1: president underge. Very good as a dog, and he's very good.

1594
01:14:01,880 --> 01:14:03,960
Speaker 1: He's a good motivator, very good off of a loss

1595
01:14:04,600 --> 01:14:07,000
Speaker 1: as a dog off of a loss thirty and eighteen

1596
01:14:07,040 --> 01:14:09,439
Speaker 1: against the spread sixty two and a half percent. He's

1597
01:14:09,479 --> 01:14:12,840
Speaker 1: the fourth most profitable coaching that spot among five hundred

1598
01:14:13,280 --> 01:14:17,439
Speaker 1: coaches over the past twenty years. Last one, this one,

1599
01:14:17,439 --> 01:14:19,040
Speaker 1: I'll probably thrown around, Robin. I don't know if I'll

1600
01:14:19,040 --> 01:14:20,800
Speaker 1: bet it, but I just wanted your thoughts, if you

1601
01:14:20,800 --> 01:14:24,559
Speaker 1: had any thoughts this game. UAB at Navy hilarious matchup.

1602
01:14:24,560 --> 01:14:26,000
Speaker 1: I want to bet the over, but I hate Service

1603
01:14:26,040 --> 01:14:30,400
Speaker 1: Academy overs. UAB is the worst run defense in the country.

1604
01:14:31,000 --> 01:14:34,080
Speaker 1: They are allowing it fifty six percent of rush plays

1605
01:14:34,320 --> 01:14:37,760
Speaker 1: to great successful that's the word. San Diego State is

1606
01:14:37,800 --> 01:14:40,880
Speaker 1: the second worst at fifty three. They are dead last

1607
01:14:41,000 --> 01:14:44,680
Speaker 1: or second worst in stuffery. It's either them or Umssnavy.

1608
01:14:44,680 --> 01:14:47,160
Speaker 1: He's just gonna better run five years. Every pluck Navy

1609
01:14:47,360 --> 01:14:51,360
Speaker 1: against UAV's pass attack is a poverty pass defense. I

1610
01:14:51,400 --> 01:14:53,560
Speaker 1: don't know how they get stops. So I want to

1611
01:14:53,560 --> 01:14:55,400
Speaker 1: play this over. I'm just afraid that like Navy will

1612
01:14:55,439 --> 01:14:58,240
Speaker 1: have like an eight minute drive and then fumble or

1613
01:14:58,280 --> 01:15:01,519
Speaker 1: something and then it's dead. So maybe definitely gonna be

1614
01:15:01,520 --> 01:15:03,880
Speaker 1: in my round, Robin. They should score every possession and

1615
01:15:03,920 --> 01:15:06,040
Speaker 1: then just control the clock. But who's going to get

1616
01:15:06,040 --> 01:15:07,800
Speaker 1: a stop in this game? Do you have anything here?

1617
01:15:08,080 --> 01:15:09,880
Speaker 2: God? I think the total forty nine. I want to

1618
01:15:09,920 --> 01:15:12,040
Speaker 2: take the over here. You're you are spot on with

1619
01:15:12,120 --> 01:15:14,360
Speaker 2: the analysis. Looking at the numbers is just a joke.

1620
01:15:14,960 --> 01:15:16,400
Speaker 2: I mean, the numbers are a joke. And you know

1621
01:15:16,439 --> 01:15:17,360
Speaker 2: what you missed out on? Is it?

1622
01:15:17,400 --> 01:15:19,960
Speaker 1: You? Maybe one one thirty three rush success right? One

1623
01:15:20,040 --> 01:15:20,959
Speaker 1: thirty three EPA.

1624
01:15:20,800 --> 01:15:23,080
Speaker 2: For rush will out And not only that against the rush,

1625
01:15:23,520 --> 01:15:26,519
Speaker 2: UAB is one hundred and thirty second. Defensive quality drives.

1626
01:15:26,760 --> 01:15:29,800
Speaker 2: Everybody gets to have a methodical drive down the field

1627
01:15:30,200 --> 01:15:33,200
Speaker 2: UAB bottom ten and defensive finishing drives. Everybody gets a

1628
01:15:33,240 --> 01:15:35,479
Speaker 2: touchdown when they come on down. I don't know why

1629
01:15:35,720 --> 01:15:38,240
Speaker 2: why are we hesitating on the over here? Because it's Navy,

1630
01:15:39,040 --> 01:15:41,280
Speaker 2: all right, we're betting it. I'm betting it all right.

1631
01:15:41,560 --> 01:15:45,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, that'll do it. So trash maybe over Maybe in

1632
01:15:46,040 --> 01:15:48,679
Speaker 1: the round robin, you agree waking in a round robin?

1633
01:15:48,880 --> 01:15:54,400
Speaker 1: Yep Stantaday state you're staying Allay Purdue, yes, and about

1634
01:15:54,479 --> 01:15:56,040
Speaker 1: tech you agree with yes?

1635
01:15:56,560 --> 01:15:56,880
Speaker 2: All right?

1636
01:15:57,400 --> 01:15:59,840
Speaker 1: Before we get to three and OL got a couple

1637
01:15:59,880 --> 01:16:03,120
Speaker 1: of Collins teams are on the docket. San Diego State.

1638
01:16:03,080 --> 01:16:05,840
Speaker 2: Overs as techovers.

1639
01:16:05,320 --> 01:16:08,160
Speaker 1: Been hot on these. San Diego State at Colorado State.

1640
01:16:08,320 --> 01:16:10,519
Speaker 1: It's colage of State three and a half point favorite here, yeah,

1641
01:16:10,680 --> 01:16:11,519
Speaker 1: over under.

1642
01:16:11,920 --> 01:16:14,200
Speaker 2: Over, and that's too many points. San Diego State should

1643
01:16:14,200 --> 01:16:15,680
Speaker 2: be getting it here. They're going to be able to

1644
01:16:15,760 --> 01:16:19,720
Speaker 2: create and cash scoring opportunities. You know, they're going to

1645
01:16:19,720 --> 01:16:21,080
Speaker 2: be able to move the ball in standard downs. This

1646
01:16:21,160 --> 01:16:25,360
Speaker 2: Colorado State defense is really poor in so many different areas.

1647
01:16:25,920 --> 01:16:29,600
Speaker 2: San Diego State has a running back, Lucky Sudden. He's

1648
01:16:29,720 --> 01:16:32,000
Speaker 2: created quite an impact the last few games since he's

1649
01:16:32,040 --> 01:16:35,920
Speaker 2: taken over four point one yards after contact seven point

1650
01:16:36,040 --> 01:16:39,200
Speaker 2: eight yards per carry against Utah State on eleven attempts

1651
01:16:39,280 --> 01:16:41,960
Speaker 2: last week. Colorado State is well blown national average and

1652
01:16:42,000 --> 01:16:44,840
Speaker 2: defensive success rate against the inside zone, counter and man

1653
01:16:44,960 --> 01:16:48,280
Speaker 2: blocking schemes that San Diego State runs. I'm not sure

1654
01:16:48,320 --> 01:16:50,000
Speaker 2: San Diego State's defense is going to be able to

1655
01:16:50,040 --> 01:16:52,439
Speaker 2: do anything. It's Fouler, Nicolsi, Fowler and Nkosi.

1656
01:16:52,520 --> 01:16:55,120
Speaker 1: They're Rundy's so bad and Colorado State doesn't run so

1657
01:16:55,200 --> 01:16:55,920
Speaker 1: that helps them here.

1658
01:16:56,280 --> 01:16:59,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, So I'm going over. I'm going to stsu

1659
01:16:59,840 --> 01:17:05,280
Speaker 2: here and then Arkansas woo pig suy absolute dumpster fined us.

1660
01:17:05,720 --> 01:17:07,040
Speaker 1: I don't know how we win a game the rest

1661
01:17:07,080 --> 01:17:08,800
Speaker 1: of the year, just blowing program up.

1662
01:17:08,880 --> 01:17:12,719
Speaker 2: Give us a death sentence. Collins talking razorback football.

1663
01:17:14,000 --> 01:17:16,360
Speaker 1: Arcile's gonna be in my spots piece. I was gonna

1664
01:17:16,360 --> 01:17:20,200
Speaker 1: play them host Danny nose to a half point favorites

1665
01:17:20,360 --> 01:17:23,559
Speaker 1: at home against Auburn. Their defense has been good. They

1666
01:17:23,640 --> 01:17:26,479
Speaker 1: can stop, they can slow down this one dimension Auburn attack.

1667
01:17:26,600 --> 01:17:28,720
Speaker 1: I also like the under the overs taking money. I

1668
01:17:28,760 --> 01:17:31,439
Speaker 1: get it because Arkansas was using pace last week. But

1669
01:17:31,560 --> 01:17:34,720
Speaker 1: I can't bet Arkansas because they lost their top tight

1670
01:17:34,840 --> 01:17:36,720
Speaker 1: end and their top receiver. Like, who are they gonna

1671
01:17:36,760 --> 01:17:39,360
Speaker 1: throw to? That's what's concerning to me. Against a really

1672
01:17:39,400 --> 01:17:41,880
Speaker 1: good Auburn secondary. What do you see here? Help me out?

1673
01:17:42,080 --> 01:17:44,000
Speaker 2: Well, when it comes down to it, I mean in

1674
01:17:44,120 --> 01:17:46,880
Speaker 2: crunch time, they're just gonna have kJ and Rocket Sanders

1675
01:17:46,960 --> 01:17:48,720
Speaker 2: lower their head and try to bowl people over. I

1676
01:17:48,760 --> 01:17:50,639
Speaker 2: mean that was what got them to win against Florida

1677
01:17:50,720 --> 01:17:52,720
Speaker 2: last week. So we'll see what they have. But you're

1678
01:17:52,800 --> 01:17:55,600
Speaker 2: right with Kenny Geyton calling plays. They want kJ to

1679
01:17:55,680 --> 01:17:57,760
Speaker 2: try to spread it out on quick slants. Any of

1680
01:17:57,800 --> 01:17:59,840
Speaker 2: the crossers. Crossers are now a part of the route

1681
01:18:00,160 --> 01:18:03,080
Speaker 2: they're back again from the Brows era, so we'll see

1682
01:18:03,080 --> 01:18:05,200
Speaker 2: how they do there. There's a I'm just so hesitant

1683
01:18:05,240 --> 01:18:07,800
Speaker 2: in this game. I understand the spot and yeah, we're

1684
01:18:07,840 --> 01:18:09,720
Speaker 2: at home and we've got to have this to get

1685
01:18:09,720 --> 01:18:12,320
Speaker 2: to bowl season, but there's a few things in this

1686
01:18:12,520 --> 01:18:16,000
Speaker 2: that really have kept me off playing Arkansas. First. Number one,

1687
01:18:17,439 --> 01:18:20,000
Speaker 2: there's a huge coaching mismatch here. I love Sam Pittman

1688
01:18:20,080 --> 01:18:22,479
Speaker 2: more than anything, but the number one middle eight team

1689
01:18:22,520 --> 01:18:25,320
Speaker 2: in the country is Hugh Freeze and the Auburn Tigers.

1690
01:18:25,720 --> 01:18:29,040
Speaker 2: So this number that's sitting at two and a half two,

1691
01:18:29,200 --> 01:18:31,479
Speaker 2: it's going to go to pick whatever. I think it's

1692
01:18:31,479 --> 01:18:33,840
Speaker 2: going to fluctuate during the game. I really do. I

1693
01:18:33,840 --> 01:18:36,680
Speaker 2: think this is a live betting game. Hugh Freeze is

1694
01:18:36,720 --> 01:18:38,360
Speaker 2: one of the best head coaches. He's going to be

1695
01:18:38,439 --> 01:18:40,760
Speaker 2: completely prepared on defense for what Arkansas wants to do

1696
01:18:40,840 --> 01:18:43,960
Speaker 2: on offense, especially with the losses from a target perspective,

1697
01:18:44,240 --> 01:18:45,880
Speaker 2: They're gonna be able to load the box, try to

1698
01:18:45,920 --> 01:18:49,000
Speaker 2: do what they can against kJ which is tough about impossible.

1699
01:18:49,120 --> 01:18:52,360
Speaker 2: But it's the same thing again, like I said last week,

1700
01:18:52,840 --> 01:18:56,320
Speaker 2: Austin Armstrong, defensive coordinator for Florida, I said he would

1701
01:18:56,320 --> 01:18:58,760
Speaker 2: make adjustments in halftime, they would shut Arkansas down. The

1702
01:18:58,800 --> 01:19:01,160
Speaker 2: third quarter, they did what they allow I think three points.

1703
01:19:01,200 --> 01:19:02,400
Speaker 2: I'm not even sure if they allow a point. I

1704
01:19:02,400 --> 01:19:04,160
Speaker 2: think there was a field goal, maybe that Cam Little

1705
01:19:04,200 --> 01:19:07,160
Speaker 2: got in on. But the same thing's happening here. Hugh

1706
01:19:07,240 --> 01:19:10,080
Speaker 2: Freeze is such a mastermind end game. Nobody is better

1707
01:19:10,120 --> 01:19:13,960
Speaker 2: from drive to drive than Auburn. So I just it's

1708
01:19:14,000 --> 01:19:16,719
Speaker 2: a coaching mismatch, which leads me to say, I'm staying

1709
01:19:16,760 --> 01:19:18,080
Speaker 2: off this game. I'm going to play it live.

1710
01:19:18,160 --> 01:19:18,280
Speaker 1: Now.

1711
01:19:18,360 --> 01:19:20,160
Speaker 2: For those of you out there that have the Auburn

1712
01:19:20,200 --> 01:19:22,320
Speaker 2: win total over six and a half, you have to

1713
01:19:22,400 --> 01:19:25,639
Speaker 2: have this game. And you know I've got so much

1714
01:19:25,680 --> 01:19:28,080
Speaker 2: on that Auburn win total over that I'm gonna get

1715
01:19:28,120 --> 01:19:30,360
Speaker 2: limited in live play. So I'm probably gonna take a

1716
01:19:30,360 --> 01:19:33,040
Speaker 2: few live shots during the game. During the app you're

1717
01:19:33,040 --> 01:19:34,760
Speaker 2: gonna see me take Auburn on one side, to see

1718
01:19:34,800 --> 01:19:36,519
Speaker 2: me take Arkansas on the other. I'm gonna try to

1719
01:19:36,560 --> 01:19:38,559
Speaker 2: hedge both sides. But if you're in the same boat

1720
01:19:38,560 --> 01:19:40,240
Speaker 2: as I am, and you are so heavily invested in

1721
01:19:40,280 --> 01:19:43,080
Speaker 2: this Auburn over, you've got to get money on Arkansas

1722
01:19:43,680 --> 01:19:46,800
Speaker 2: as plus whatever it doesn't matter if it's plus one.

1723
01:19:46,840 --> 01:19:48,519
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter if it's plus one hundred on the

1724
01:19:48,560 --> 01:19:50,880
Speaker 2: money line. If you've got all that down on Auburn

1725
01:19:50,960 --> 01:19:52,800
Speaker 2: over six and a half for a win total, you

1726
01:19:52,880 --> 01:19:54,720
Speaker 2: got to get down on Arkansas here just to cover

1727
01:19:54,800 --> 01:19:56,920
Speaker 2: your bets up. So that's the way I'm gonna play.

1728
01:19:56,920 --> 01:19:59,240
Speaker 2: It's a really hard game because you're right, it's the

1729
01:19:59,280 --> 01:20:01,760
Speaker 2: spot for Arkansas. But there's a big coaching mismatch here

1730
01:20:01,760 --> 01:20:02,920
Speaker 2: in Arkansas lost pieces.

1731
01:20:03,200 --> 01:20:05,840
Speaker 1: Yep, all right, good stuff there. Before we get out

1732
01:20:05,840 --> 01:20:07,000
Speaker 1: of here, let's go three and out.

1733
01:20:08,840 --> 01:20:10,920
Speaker 2: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1734
01:20:12,240 --> 01:20:14,559
Speaker 1: All right, first down, little Friday night lights.

1735
01:20:14,880 --> 01:20:17,719
Speaker 2: That's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1736
01:20:20,560 --> 01:20:23,360
Speaker 1: North Texas at SMU and WY i'ming at unlv U

1737
01:20:23,400 --> 01:20:26,080
Speaker 1: and lv has been a covering machine. I got nothing there.

1738
01:20:26,160 --> 01:20:29,000
Speaker 1: I will say North Texas at SMU, North Texas, I

1739
01:20:29,040 --> 01:20:31,160
Speaker 1: don't know why they started Stone or Chandler Rogers has

1740
01:20:31,160 --> 01:20:33,840
Speaker 1: been amazing. What happens in every North Texas game is

1741
01:20:33,880 --> 01:20:36,400
Speaker 1: they go down a bunch and they come storming back

1742
01:20:36,479 --> 01:20:38,280
Speaker 1: and they get into the game. Their offense is good,

1743
01:20:38,280 --> 01:20:41,599
Speaker 1: their defense is bad. SMU like is pulling their starters

1744
01:20:41,680 --> 01:20:43,640
Speaker 1: really early when they go up big. They have you know,

1745
01:20:43,960 --> 01:20:45,720
Speaker 1: Memphis next week, which is going to decide if they

1746
01:20:45,800 --> 01:20:48,640
Speaker 1: go to the conference championship game or not. You know,

1747
01:20:48,760 --> 01:20:51,320
Speaker 1: Preston Stone was pulled in like the first second quarter

1748
01:20:51,400 --> 01:20:54,800
Speaker 1: against Tulsa when they put up all those points. So

1749
01:20:55,760 --> 01:20:57,200
Speaker 1: I show a little bit of value North Texas. But

1750
01:20:57,200 --> 01:20:58,519
Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait for them to go down here and

1751
01:20:58,520 --> 01:21:00,479
Speaker 1: then I'm gonna bet them live. You got anything on

1752
01:21:00,520 --> 01:21:00,920
Speaker 1: Friday night?

1753
01:21:01,240 --> 01:21:03,880
Speaker 2: Well, no, I like North Texas too, and you and

1754
01:21:03,960 --> 01:21:06,600
Speaker 2: I cut a podcast like first week of August and

1755
01:21:06,720 --> 01:21:08,320
Speaker 2: we talked about North Texas and I said, I love

1756
01:21:08,400 --> 01:21:10,080
Speaker 2: Channel of Rogers and You're like, he's not the starter.

1757
01:21:10,240 --> 01:21:12,639
Speaker 2: I was like, what in the world are they doing?

1758
01:21:12,760 --> 01:21:15,040
Speaker 2: Why is he not the starter? So I don't know why.

1759
01:21:15,200 --> 01:21:18,360
Speaker 1: I get their numbers are shocked. Stone now started two games,

1760
01:21:18,400 --> 01:21:21,360
Speaker 1: he has like four picks and four touchdowns. Rogers started

1761
01:21:21,439 --> 01:21:23,240
Speaker 1: the rest and he has like twenty four touchdowns and

1762
01:21:23,280 --> 01:21:23,719
Speaker 1: three picks.

1763
01:21:23,960 --> 01:21:26,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean shocking. So yeah, I do like North

1764
01:21:26,400 --> 01:21:28,519
Speaker 2: Texas too. I'm going to join you. I am having

1765
01:21:28,520 --> 01:21:30,920
Speaker 2: a hard time fading UNLV with how explosive the go

1766
01:21:31,040 --> 01:21:33,960
Speaker 2: go offense has been. The Barry odem drop eight. They've

1767
01:21:34,000 --> 01:21:36,479
Speaker 2: been very good. I love Wyoming, but it's not at home.

1768
01:21:36,520 --> 01:21:39,000
Speaker 2: They don't have Laryer dice as their advantage, so I'm

1769
01:21:39,040 --> 01:21:41,120
Speaker 2: staying off on that game. I do want to bet Wyoming,

1770
01:21:41,160 --> 01:21:42,559
Speaker 2: I just I don't know if I can make it there,

1771
01:21:42,640 --> 01:21:44,439
Speaker 2: so just check the app. But I definitely with you

1772
01:21:44,560 --> 01:21:45,200
Speaker 2: in North Texas.

1773
01:21:45,400 --> 01:21:47,720
Speaker 1: All right. Moving on the second down, our favorite overdog

1774
01:21:48,000 --> 01:21:50,360
Speaker 1: called the Overdog Parlor. We're sixty percent of these in there,

1775
01:21:50,400 --> 01:21:53,760
Speaker 1: but we've split six straight weeks, so if we can

1776
01:21:53,800 --> 01:21:56,479
Speaker 1: bring their rooms back up, I'll kick things off bear down.

1777
01:21:56,720 --> 01:22:00,800
Speaker 1: Going with Arizona head to head with Colin here talked

1778
01:22:00,800 --> 01:22:03,599
Speaker 1: about this earlier. I think their offensive be too much

1779
01:22:03,640 --> 01:22:05,639
Speaker 1: for Colorado. They'll get a few negative plays on sacks

1780
01:22:05,680 --> 01:22:08,519
Speaker 1: and stop Calorido enough, and hopefully there's no back door

1781
01:22:08,560 --> 01:22:10,840
Speaker 1: here as we've seen McCard in the past two weeks. Colin,

1782
01:22:10,840 --> 01:22:12,519
Speaker 1: where you going for your favorite favorite?

1783
01:22:13,320 --> 01:22:15,360
Speaker 2: I can't believe I'm doing this and you're not. Air

1784
01:22:15,479 --> 01:22:18,720
Speaker 2: Force is going out to the island on Veterans Day

1785
01:22:18,920 --> 01:22:22,120
Speaker 2: to play Hawaii. Troy Callhun was talking this week about

1786
01:22:22,200 --> 01:22:24,080
Speaker 2: how great it is when they go out to the island.

1787
01:22:24,160 --> 01:22:27,120
Speaker 2: He mentioned December seventh, nineteen forty one. He mentioned all

1788
01:22:27,160 --> 01:22:29,680
Speaker 2: the military bases, how well Air Force is treated when

1789
01:22:29,680 --> 01:22:32,320
Speaker 2: they get there, how how it is such a big

1790
01:22:32,439 --> 01:22:36,200
Speaker 2: trip for the program it shows and the results. They

1791
01:22:36,280 --> 01:22:40,080
Speaker 2: have absolutely ran Hawaii out of the building the last

1792
01:22:40,120 --> 01:22:42,000
Speaker 2: couple of times at one hundred and fourteen to thirty

1793
01:22:42,040 --> 01:22:44,559
Speaker 2: three combined score in the twenty fifteen to twenty nineteen

1794
01:22:44,840 --> 01:22:47,040
Speaker 2: those two games, Troy Calhoun went down to the island.

1795
01:22:47,120 --> 01:22:50,120
Speaker 2: Absolutely ran Hawaii out of their own building. I think

1796
01:22:50,160 --> 01:22:53,320
Speaker 2: it's important. Yes, there were six turnovers against Army last week.

1797
01:22:53,479 --> 01:22:54,599
Speaker 1: Is just so bad.

1798
01:22:54,720 --> 01:22:57,479
Speaker 2: I mean, that is so uncharacteristic. This Air Force team

1799
01:22:57,560 --> 01:22:59,479
Speaker 2: is tenth and havoc allowed. They do not do that.

1800
01:22:59,600 --> 01:23:02,479
Speaker 2: I mean Zach Larrier three fumbles, two of them lost

1801
01:23:02,479 --> 01:23:05,519
Speaker 2: at quarterback. All Troy Callhoun had to say was we

1802
01:23:05,600 --> 01:23:07,600
Speaker 2: will fix it. We will fix it. So I don't know.

1803
01:23:08,120 --> 01:23:10,200
Speaker 2: I think Larier may have it might not get as

1804
01:23:10,240 --> 01:23:12,080
Speaker 2: many carries. It might be a lot of full back dive,

1805
01:23:12,120 --> 01:23:14,800
Speaker 2: and that is exactly where you're gonna be Hawaii. I know,

1806
01:23:14,960 --> 01:23:17,000
Speaker 2: Hawaii looks like they might have some sort of rush

1807
01:23:17,080 --> 01:23:19,320
Speaker 2: defense because it's like thirtieth and stuff, right, But if

1808
01:23:19,320 --> 01:23:20,800
Speaker 2: you go and look at that. It all comes against

1809
01:23:20,880 --> 01:23:23,439
Speaker 2: inside zone. That's not what air Force runs. Air Force

1810
01:23:23,520 --> 01:23:26,040
Speaker 2: runs full back dive, they run power, they run triple.

1811
01:23:26,520 --> 01:23:28,760
Speaker 2: When's the last time in Hawaii saw triple? They never

1812
01:23:28,840 --> 01:23:31,559
Speaker 2: have in the Timmy Chang era. So and plus when

1813
01:23:31,600 --> 01:23:33,759
Speaker 2: you when I was talking about some of those run concepts,

1814
01:23:34,160 --> 01:23:36,439
Speaker 2: pull lead is where your offensive linemen are moving around,

1815
01:23:36,520 --> 01:23:40,040
Speaker 2: which air Force does a lot of. Hawaii's defense has

1816
01:23:40,080 --> 01:23:43,600
Speaker 2: a twenty five percent success rate. If you don't know

1817
01:23:43,640 --> 01:23:45,640
Speaker 2: the numbers, that's half of what the national average is.

1818
01:23:45,680 --> 01:23:49,080
Speaker 2: A twenty five percent success rate against pull lead run concepts.

1819
01:23:50,120 --> 01:23:52,799
Speaker 2: Air Force can run them out of the building again

1820
01:23:52,880 --> 01:23:56,160
Speaker 2: for the third time in Troy Calhoun's career, taking air

1821
01:23:56,240 --> 01:23:57,280
Speaker 2: Force down to the island.

1822
01:23:57,800 --> 01:24:00,439
Speaker 1: All right there, it is Arizona and air US and

1823
01:24:00,520 --> 01:24:04,520
Speaker 1: let's close things out with our favorite money line underdog.

1824
01:24:06,680 --> 01:24:11,600
Speaker 3: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1825
01:24:11,800 --> 01:24:13,040
Speaker 3: money line parlay.

1826
01:24:14,080 --> 01:24:17,599
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with UCF here at home against Oklahoma State.

1827
01:24:17,600 --> 01:24:20,920
Speaker 1: I think there's a great spot. Okahma Sate has been rolling.

1828
01:24:21,000 --> 01:24:24,120
Speaker 1: They're coming off that emotional win in the final bedroom

1829
01:24:24,160 --> 01:24:28,000
Speaker 1: over Oklahoma, and you see, I think is undervalue in

1830
01:24:28,000 --> 01:24:29,519
Speaker 1: the market because they had to play with Plumblee for

1831
01:24:29,520 --> 01:24:32,559
Speaker 1: a while. They lost by what two to They blew

1832
01:24:32,640 --> 01:24:34,880
Speaker 1: that game to Baylor when they're up by twenty five.

1833
01:24:34,920 --> 01:24:37,800
Speaker 1: They lost by two at Oklahoma. Plumbley's legs, I think

1834
01:24:37,800 --> 01:24:40,200
Speaker 1: are going to be the difference here. UCS run d's

1835
01:24:40,240 --> 01:24:42,480
Speaker 1: not great, which scares me a bit. But the Oklahoma

1836
01:24:42,520 --> 01:24:44,280
Speaker 1: State defense, you want to talk about a team that's

1837
01:24:44,280 --> 01:24:46,960
Speaker 1: getting lucky. I mean, they've won five in a row.

1838
01:24:47,280 --> 01:24:49,120
Speaker 1: You know what their opponents have gone on fourth down

1839
01:24:49,400 --> 01:24:51,880
Speaker 1: one for twelve. You know what their turnover margin has

1840
01:24:51,880 --> 01:24:55,519
Speaker 1: been plus eight thirteen to five turnover edge. They've also

1841
01:24:55,600 --> 01:25:00,160
Speaker 1: benefited from multiple defensive scores, so many short fields, that

1842
01:25:00,280 --> 01:25:03,120
Speaker 1: highly questionable pass in appearance call when they would have

1843
01:25:03,160 --> 01:25:06,759
Speaker 1: been pinned their narritory lost, Okelham, regression looms, flat spot

1844
01:25:06,840 --> 01:25:09,680
Speaker 1: in the bounce house. Yeah, we're going with UCF here.

1845
01:25:10,160 --> 01:25:11,360
Speaker 1: You have any thoughts in that game.

1846
01:25:11,840 --> 01:25:16,920
Speaker 2: UCF has some serious issues with inside zone, outside zone

1847
01:25:17,000 --> 01:25:20,080
Speaker 2: on the run D. But at the same time they

1848
01:25:20,120 --> 01:25:24,679
Speaker 2: can score themselves. So how how much can Allie Gordon

1849
01:25:24,760 --> 01:25:27,240
Speaker 2: keep this up? That's the question, right, But the numbers

1850
01:25:27,280 --> 01:25:30,160
Speaker 2: are just not there from a central Florida rush defensive perspective,

1851
01:25:30,200 --> 01:25:32,400
Speaker 2: but they can make this a shootout. So I think

1852
01:25:32,400 --> 01:25:34,080
Speaker 2: that's what the numbers are telling us on the board.

1853
01:25:34,439 --> 01:25:36,120
Speaker 2: For me, I'm going to stick in the state of Florida,

1854
01:25:36,120 --> 01:25:38,519
Speaker 2: except I'm going to take a team that is good

1855
01:25:38,600 --> 01:25:42,360
Speaker 2: at the Conference USA. I'm going to take Florida International.

1856
01:25:42,800 --> 01:25:44,760
Speaker 2: They have to win to their final three to make

1857
01:25:44,800 --> 01:25:45,479
Speaker 2: it to a bowl.

1858
01:25:45,600 --> 01:25:45,800
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1859
01:25:45,920 --> 01:25:48,240
Speaker 2: I know this is gross, but you know what, double

1860
01:25:48,280 --> 01:25:50,960
Speaker 2: digit underdogs, I'm taking it a win outright. People are

1861
01:25:51,040 --> 01:25:52,960
Speaker 2: just not even thinking about this team. They're going up

1862
01:25:52,960 --> 01:25:55,360
Speaker 2: against a Middle Tennessee team that lets stuck you down.

1863
01:25:55,439 --> 01:25:57,519
Speaker 2: They have two wins, can't make it to a bowl.

1864
01:25:57,840 --> 01:25:59,880
Speaker 2: Rick stock Still, I don't know where this team is

1865
01:26:00,080 --> 01:26:02,679
Speaker 2: right now, but Florida National has to have this game.

1866
01:26:03,200 --> 01:26:05,439
Speaker 2: They've made a change of quarterback to Grayson James versus

1867
01:26:05,520 --> 01:26:08,000
Speaker 2: Keyon Jenkins. That makes them a lot less volatile on

1868
01:26:08,040 --> 01:26:10,280
Speaker 2: the offensive side of the ball. It did find them

1869
01:26:10,320 --> 01:26:12,960
Speaker 2: a spark. They threw for two hundred yards inter relief

1870
01:26:12,960 --> 01:26:15,719
Speaker 2: of Jingins in their last game, which seems forever ago

1871
01:26:15,880 --> 01:26:19,519
Speaker 2: because Florida National is on a bye. Yeah. I posted

1872
01:26:19,640 --> 01:26:22,800
Speaker 2: on Twitter earlier today that Action Labs if you do

1873
01:26:22,880 --> 01:26:25,800
Speaker 2: some research back to two thousand and fives ninety one

1874
01:26:25,880 --> 01:26:28,720
Speaker 2: and fifty five against the spread teams off of by

1875
01:26:29,080 --> 01:26:31,599
Speaker 2: underdogs off of bye in November going up against teams

1876
01:26:31,600 --> 01:26:33,280
Speaker 2: that aren't off of buye and on a losing streak.

1877
01:26:33,320 --> 01:26:35,639
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just this is not a good spot

1878
01:26:35,680 --> 01:26:38,960
Speaker 2: for Middle Tennessee. Whatsoever, Florida National has to have this game.

1879
01:26:40,080 --> 01:26:42,880
Speaker 2: There are some advantages here about how the quickness and

1880
01:26:42,880 --> 01:26:44,840
Speaker 2: the speed that Florida National has. They just have to

1881
01:26:45,040 --> 01:26:47,920
Speaker 2: stop having turnovers and going to Grayson James and not

1882
01:26:47,920 --> 01:26:49,800
Speaker 2: a Keon Jenkins is a big part of that. So

1883
01:26:51,080 --> 01:26:54,000
Speaker 2: giddy up, Florida National, double digit underdog, let's go. It's

1884
01:26:54,040 --> 01:26:56,040
Speaker 2: a great spot. It's such a great spot.

1885
01:26:56,560 --> 01:27:01,839
Speaker 1: Well, we're going to the state of for a money underdog.

1886
01:27:01,920 --> 01:27:03,800
Speaker 1: I don't hate it at all. By the way, I

1887
01:27:03,960 --> 01:27:07,840
Speaker 1: just just reading something the one point the one million

1888
01:27:07,880 --> 01:27:10,120
Speaker 1: dollar bet on Kent State, a team that has won

1889
01:27:10,200 --> 01:27:12,640
Speaker 1: cover all year. It was the guy who won a

1890
01:27:12,720 --> 01:27:16,240
Speaker 1: one point three million dollar parlay, this crazy parlay the

1891
01:27:16,320 --> 01:27:19,200
Speaker 1: day before, and he put it all in Kent State.

1892
01:27:19,520 --> 01:27:23,200
Speaker 1: Like you, he couldn't even wait till sat the next day. Jesus,

1893
01:27:23,439 --> 01:27:24,280
Speaker 1: he just put it all in.

1894
01:27:24,360 --> 01:27:26,960
Speaker 2: Kent State, Arlay, and you threw it down on Kent State.

1895
01:27:27,560 --> 01:27:31,599
Speaker 1: Yeah. The worst team in college football that is, can't

1896
01:27:31,680 --> 01:27:32,479
Speaker 1: cover any week.

1897
01:27:33,160 --> 01:27:35,519
Speaker 2: I mean, come on, God, they're the lowest power rated

1898
01:27:35,560 --> 01:27:37,960
Speaker 2: team in our power ratings and it's one covers.

1899
01:27:38,520 --> 01:27:40,680
Speaker 1: They only can cover it against dan Enos That's it.

1900
01:27:41,760 --> 01:27:44,000
Speaker 2: Can we get Darren down to interview this guy. I

1901
01:27:44,120 --> 01:27:45,720
Speaker 2: just want to hear the psychology behind this.

1902
01:27:46,720 --> 01:27:48,960
Speaker 1: Oh, he's like, God, let me get let me get

1903
01:27:49,120 --> 01:27:50,559
Speaker 1: I got a mill, Let me get two mill real

1904
01:27:50,600 --> 01:27:53,200
Speaker 1: quick by betting on this Kent State wagon. All right,

1905
01:27:53,240 --> 01:27:56,280
Speaker 1: good stuff there. Thanks Colin as always for joining me.

1906
01:27:56,840 --> 01:28:00,680
Speaker 1: Thanks more most importantly to all of you for tuning in.

1907
01:28:01,040 --> 01:28:03,080
Speaker 1: Hope you enjoyed the show. Leave a review, high start

1908
01:28:03,080 --> 01:28:04,920
Speaker 1: a people do giveaways on Sunday. Don't forget about Voice

1909
01:28:04,960 --> 01:28:06,320
Speaker 1: now nine five nine bad Beat. It's always on my

1910
01:28:06,320 --> 01:28:07,760
Speaker 1: Twitter for a while. If you're watching YouTube, hit that

1911
01:28:07,800 --> 01:28:11,920
Speaker 1: subscribe like button. We'll be back Sunday night Monday morning

1912
01:28:12,000 --> 01:28:14,840
Speaker 1: with the recap and week twelve. Look at I can't

1913
01:28:14,880 --> 01:28:18,320
Speaker 1: believe we're already here. So let's have a weekend. Can

1914
01:28:18,680 --> 01:28:22,280
Speaker 1: duplicate your success from last weekend, but we'll be back

1915
01:28:22,960 --> 01:28:24,840
Speaker 1: with a recap. Then Tuesday we'll have the new BCS.

1916
01:28:24,920 --> 01:28:28,160
Speaker 1: We'll talk more Maction mid Week Mactions back and then

1917
01:28:28,200 --> 01:28:29,920
Speaker 1: the group of five guys. Make sure you check them out.

1918
01:28:29,960 --> 01:28:32,680
Speaker 1: Their episodes out every Wednesday, calling Out. We be back

1919
01:28:32,720 --> 01:28:35,120
Speaker 1: with a week twelve betting preview late Thursday next week.

1920
01:28:35,240 --> 01:28:36,760
Speaker 1: Don't forget about the live show ten thirty a m.

1921
01:28:36,800 --> 01:28:39,639
Speaker 1: Eastern Live on YouTube and in the app. We'll tweet

1922
01:28:39,640 --> 01:28:41,760
Speaker 1: out a link. But thanks for tuning in. Subcribe to

1923
01:28:41,840 --> 01:28:44,439
Speaker 1: subscribe subscribing to the Drill. Thanks our sponsor betam Gim,

1924
01:28:44,479 --> 01:28:45,880
Speaker 1: Thanks to our producers on the back end. Good luck

1925
01:28:45,920 --> 01:28:48,720
Speaker 1: this weekend and enjoy all your wagers and we will

1926
01:28:49,160 --> 01:28:50,080
Speaker 1: catch you all later. Cheers.

1927
01:28:50,400 --> 01:29:06,320
Speaker 2: Peace Out Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1928
01:29:06,760 --> 01:29:09,559
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1929
01:29:09,880 --> 01:29:12,840
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred

1930
01:29:12,880 --> 01:29:13,320
Speaker 3: Gambler