Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Rwanda goes to the polls on Monday, with President Paul
Speaker 2: Kagame looking to extend his twenty four years in office.
Speaker 2: As a rebel leader in the Civil War, he helped
Speaker 2: free the country from a genocidal regime and came to
Speaker 2: power shortly after. But since becoming president, he's shown little
Speaker 2: sign of wanting to give it up. Opponents of Kagame
Speaker 2: have been arrested and barred from standing against him.
Speaker 3: Randon, opposition figure a big Twin and Gabihai won't be
Speaker 3: able to run in the upcoming presidential election on July fifteenth,
Speaker 3: since our civil rights haven't been restored by the judges
Speaker 3: of the Icodes of Kigali.
Speaker 2: Though human rights groups and opposition activists increasingly face pressure
Speaker 2: from his government, Kagame's developmental transformation of the country has
Speaker 2: been lauded by many Rwanda and many in Europe and
Speaker 2: the USC Kagame as an important regional ally.
Speaker 4: Thank you mart It's a great honor to be with
Speaker 4: President dam We are trade with Rwanda and just general,
Speaker 4: I would say great relationships.
Speaker 5: Half do you take government.
Speaker 2: We are absolutely delighted and excited about our partnership.
Speaker 5: With Rwanda.
Speaker 6: Dipple.
Speaker 5: Thank you so much for your words and for the
Speaker 5: comments you've just made, mister President, Ministers, ladies and gentlemen, friends,
Speaker 5: it's a special honor and responsibility to be in Rwanda among.
Speaker 6: The about you.
Speaker 2: This week, we want to take a deeper look at
Speaker 2: Kagame's rule and attempts by the opposition to fight back.
Speaker 7: Gowanda is not a freak country. We don't harm anything.
Speaker 7: Questions people, are you go after the genocide? Miners may
Speaker 7: form genocide.
Speaker 8: They have nothing to do with better side.
Speaker 7: They need a room to express in mind, they need
Speaker 7: the room to see how can you reform the governess
Speaker 7: in Rwanda.
Speaker 2: I'm Jennifer's Abasaja and this is the Next Africa Podcast,
Speaker 2: bringing you one story each week from the continent driving
Speaker 2: the future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg
Speaker 2: can provide. Now on Bloomberg, we've just published a detailed
Speaker 2: look at the kagame governments decades long suppression of opposition
Speaker 2: parties and that's come from reporter Simon Marx and our
Speaker 2: deputy Managing editor for Africa, Neil Munchi, and they're both
Speaker 2: joining us now on the podcast.
Speaker 8: Hi guys, thanks for joining.
Speaker 2: Hi, so let's just start with Kagame and how he
Speaker 2: came to power in the first place.
Speaker 8: Neil, maybe you can walk us through that.
Speaker 1: Paul Kagama is really a tootemic figure in Rwand in history.
Speaker 1: He was a rebel commander in the Liberation Army that
Speaker 1: fought through the bush to free Rwanda and end the
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety four Rwanda genocide, which killed eight hundred thousand people,
Speaker 1: mostly Tutsi's the ethnic group that Kagami is from as well.
Speaker 1: He then became the vice president and Defense minister, but
Speaker 1: was essentially the de facto leader from nineteen ninety four
Speaker 1: of this small Central African country, and in two thousand
Speaker 1: he was first officially elected president and he has since
Speaker 1: then run the country with the pretty iron fist, routinely
Speaker 1: getting re elected with ninety three plus percent of the vote.
Speaker 1: And he's up for election again on the fifteenth, then
Speaker 1: there's very little doubt he's going to get anything less
Speaker 1: than ninety eight percent.
Speaker 2: Well, and Neil, I mean just taking us back to
Speaker 2: what happened post the genocidal period for the country and
Speaker 2: was there any discussion, Was there any talk that the
Speaker 2: country was actually going to move in the path of
Speaker 2: democracy I.
Speaker 1: Think a really important thing to understand about Rwanda and
Speaker 1: Kagami's place in it is that this is a country
Speaker 1: that was essentially left for dead right in ninety four.
Speaker 1: The world had turned its back on it, and every
Speaker 1: institution in the country was destroyed. Right, So they came
Speaker 1: together in a way to re establish the state. But
Speaker 1: it was clear from the beginning that many Rwandans, especially
Speaker 1: in the Tutsi minority that was targeted in the genocide,
Speaker 1: felt that a return to traditional democracy, if that's what
Speaker 1: Rwanda had before, was not going to cut it given
Speaker 1: what had happened. And while they talked about reconciliation and
Speaker 1: they erased any talk of ethnicity, which was the cause
Speaker 1: of the genocide, in public life, it was pretty clear
Speaker 1: from the beginning that Paul Kagami was going to run
Speaker 1: the place, and he was going to run it in
Speaker 1: a particularly authoritarian way, and that many Rwandans, to be fair,
Speaker 1: were quite happy with that, and many are still happy
Speaker 1: about it today.
Speaker 8: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I was going to say that as well, that that
Speaker 2: is really the feeling on the ground, and just in
Speaker 2: the time period too, we've seen the West really then
Speaker 2: cozy up to Kagame over the years.
Speaker 8: How did that change happen? I mean, what was it
Speaker 8: that they were so keen to get close to him?
Speaker 1: For if you traveled to Kigali, the capital of Ruanda,
Speaker 1: you'll immediately be very impressed. The roads are especially in
Speaker 1: comparison to other African capitals, including much richer countries. The
Speaker 1: roads are all paved, the police do not ask for bribes.
Speaker 1: It's clean and smooth and everything runs efficiently. There's power,
Speaker 1: there's internet, there's all these things that are lacking in
Speaker 1: a lot of other African countries. And Kagami did all
Speaker 1: that with a lot of Western funding. But the reason
Speaker 1: that the Western funding kept coming is because when donors
Speaker 1: visited the country, they could see their dollars in action. Right,
Speaker 1: It's like, we gave him money and now they have roads.
Speaker 1: We gave money, and now the maternal mortality rate has
Speaker 1: come down. The country remains still a very poor country
Speaker 1: along the lines of Mali South Sudan, like other traditionally
Speaker 1: low income countries, but again it comes from this place
Speaker 1: where this was a country left for dead in ninety
Speaker 1: four and thirty years later, Kigali is probably one of
Speaker 1: the most developed capitals on the continent.
Speaker 8: In a relatively small country on the.
Speaker 1: Continent exactly, with no natural resources. It's surrounded by all
Speaker 1: these countries that have cobalt and copper and oil and gas,
Speaker 1: and it's got none of it.
Speaker 2: And yet despite all that, in Neil, there are still people.
Speaker 2: There are still parts of the world that criticize Rwanda
Speaker 2: and criticize Kagame in particular, and pushback against any sort
Speaker 2: of celebration of him.
Speaker 8: I mean, what is it that the naysayers say so?
Speaker 1: I guess the argument is that the bet that kind
Speaker 1: of Kagame makes, the Deally makes with the people is
Speaker 1: you get development but not democracy.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 1: The government would argue that, yes, we are a democracy,
Speaker 1: et cetera. But if you're getting ninety eight percent of
Speaker 1: the vote, I think it's valid to raise questions about that.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 1: The way that he has maintained power, according to critics,
Speaker 1: is suppressing dissent. There is no real opposition. Their allegations
Speaker 1: of disappearances of critics, assassinations, exile, imprisonment. There is no
Speaker 1: free press, there is none of the sort of hallmarks
Speaker 1: of traditional liberal democracy exist in Rwanda.
Speaker 2: When we come back, we'll talk about the opposition in
Speaker 2: Rwanda and whether there could be hope for free and
Speaker 2: fair elections, like Neil is just talking about in the future.
Speaker 2: We'll talk about that next. So Simon, thanks for sticking around.
Speaker 2: So in your piece, you tell the story of how
Speaker 2: activists in the country have been trying.
Speaker 8: To get help from all over the world to try and.
Speaker 2: Really challenge this regime that we've been talking about. Can
Speaker 2: you tell us who they've been speaking to it and
Speaker 2: what exactly they're saying.
Speaker 9: Yeah, So the Rwandan opposition and activists are very widespread
Speaker 9: throughout the entire world. There's a huge Rwandan diaspora on
Speaker 9: many continents.
Speaker 6: In many states in the US, throughout Europe and.
Speaker 9: Elsewhere, and they form this sort of loose group, not
Speaker 9: always the most organized, but they're doing many different things
Speaker 9: to try and get a foot in and a.
Speaker 6: Voice in Rwanda.
Speaker 9: So one group, for example, would be the Rwandan People's
Speaker 9: Government in Exile.
Speaker 6: That's a group of.
Speaker 9: Politicians that have not been allowed to register for the
Speaker 9: election on July fifteenth, but as a result have formed
Speaker 9: their own government with a whole long list of different
Speaker 9: ministers who are drafting proposals for Rwanda in exile. There
Speaker 9: are also large opposition figures such as Victoire in Gabiri,
Speaker 9: who has been banned from running in this election and
Speaker 9: even being jailed previously. She's now out of jail, but
Speaker 9: she's been accused of denying the genocide that took place
Speaker 9: in nineteen ninety four by the government.
Speaker 6: So it's an uphill battle really for these people.
Speaker 9: There is a large lobby going on, especially in cities
Speaker 9: like Brussels. I was there recently, and many figures in
Speaker 9: the Rwandan the ESPER talk to officials in Brussels to
Speaker 9: try and convince them of the abuses taking place in Rwanda.
Speaker 9: But it's a huge uphill task for them because there
Speaker 9: is a lot of support for his regime out there.
Speaker 2: And simon what happens to those that actually do try
Speaker 2: to oppose Gagame, especially publicly. Are they still getting into
Speaker 2: trouble even when they leave the country if they're a
Speaker 2: part of that the diaspora.
Speaker 8: What are the some of the incidents that you can
Speaker 8: talk us through.
Speaker 9: In the story, we really focus on one case of
Speaker 9: a man called Eugene Gasana. He's the former Rwandan ambassador
Speaker 9: to the UN. He was appointed in two thousand and
Speaker 9: nine and remained there for several years until twenty fifteen.
Speaker 9: He was a really close friend of Kagami. He helped
Speaker 9: him when Kagami was a rebel and seeking to come
Speaker 9: to power and overthrow the Hutu regime. He was not
Speaker 9: in agreement with Paul kagam over his decision to change
Speaker 9: the constitution which would allow him.
Speaker 6: To stay in power, and the backlash was huge. He
Speaker 6: lost his position in government. He was forced to.
Speaker 9: Apply for asylum in the US, which it was granted,
Speaker 9: and later on he was accused of rape by a
Speaker 9: member of his office in New York.
Speaker 6: It's a very sensitive case. He claims that it is
Speaker 6: politically motivated.
Speaker 9: And Kagame's role in this case is difficult to put
Speaker 9: your hands on. But his lawyer says that the government
Speaker 9: of Rwanda is behind this case and that it's completely
Speaker 9: politically motivated. And it's also true that the court in
Speaker 9: New York actually discarded the rape case for a lack
Speaker 9: of evidence. In twenty twenty one, Interpol reviewed Rwanda's claims
Speaker 9: and found, and I quote here from their investigation into this,
Speaker 9: that there was a predominant political dimension to the case,
Speaker 9: in which case the red notice against mister Gasana was
Speaker 9: actually removed.
Speaker 6: So Rwanda, it.
Speaker 9: Must be said, obviously denies that this is a politically
Speaker 9: motivated case and that they have anything to do with it.
Speaker 6: Again, this only.
Speaker 9: Goes to show what happened to people who are willing
Speaker 9: to come out and criticize the president's motives.
Speaker 2: And simon you mentioned there a few international bodies when
Speaker 2: it comes to the people who are trying to oppose
Speaker 2: the regime. Is there optimism that there will be a
Speaker 2: time when some of these human rights abuse accusations will
Speaker 2: be challenged. What is the sentiment really with the community.
Speaker 9: I think when you speak to human rights groups, namely
Speaker 9: Human Rights Watch, AMSTE International, these kind of groups who
Speaker 9: are really documenting.
Speaker 6: What's happening inside Rwanda in terms of people who have
Speaker 6: allegedly been.
Speaker 9: Disappeared or assassinated, or people who have had to flee
Speaker 9: the country, they see a huge schism basically between.
Speaker 6: What's happening inside the country.
Speaker 9: And what people outside of the country.
Speaker 6: View as what's important.
Speaker 9: Really, Kagami does have a lot of vested interests and
Speaker 9: huge support internationally. He's helping Western governments with their immigration policy.
Speaker 9: He is also policing and offering up soldiers in the
Speaker 9: foremost it's army and peacekeepers in places where Western countries don't.
Speaker 6: Want to send their troops. So really he's bringing so
Speaker 6: much to the table. He's also created a fairly positive.
Speaker 9: Business environment, and I know, you know, the European Union
Speaker 9: have helped him bring, for example, the pharmaceutical industry to Kigale.
Speaker 9: Diplomats I speak to have a sort of glowing view
Speaker 9: of Kagame, and it really sits in direct opposition to
Speaker 9: how human rights activists and also the Rwandan opposition figures
Speaker 9: would view the regime. It really is a Jacqueline Hard situation.
Speaker 9: One thing I'd like to point out is that the
Speaker 9: Kagami government has categorically denied over the years having played
Speaker 9: any role in the disappearance or assassination of its critics
Speaker 9: or defectors from the government, and stands by being an open,
Speaker 9: inclusive society for everyone.
Speaker 2: And so then just going back to the election that
Speaker 2: is coming up on Monday, we largely do know what
Speaker 2: the outcome will be, but what is maybe the unknown
Speaker 2: in Kagame's next term. We know how long he is
Speaker 2: wanting to stay in office.
Speaker 9: So several years ago, the Rwandan government changed the constitution
Speaker 9: allowing President Kagami to stay in power at least until
Speaker 9: two thousand and thirty four, So that's another decade from
Speaker 9: now that would allow him to be re elected in
Speaker 9: July as we speak, and go on and be re
Speaker 9: elected once again for a fifth term should he indeed run.
Speaker 9: But yes, the question of succession in Rwanda is really
Speaker 9: the million dollar question. There's a lot of concern over
Speaker 9: what would happen if Indeka Game were to step down
Speaker 9: or what to die Even that, it really begs the
Speaker 9: question as to what would happen terms of stability in
Speaker 9: the country.
Speaker 10: Considering we know that the Tutsi part of the population
Speaker 10: is around fifteen percent and the Hutu about eighty five percent,
Speaker 10: it's a huge question mark for the country.
Speaker 2: Thanks so much, Simon and Neil for your reporting and
Speaker 2: your insights today.
Speaker 1: Thanks for having us.
Speaker 2: Thanks When any leader wins an election with ninety eight
Speaker 2: percent of the vote, there are bound to be questions
Speaker 2: about the state of the democracy. Thirty years since the
Speaker 2: Rwandan genocide. The country's ability to rebuild explains why the
Speaker 2: West has been so keen to work with Kagame.
Speaker 8: But with growing human rights concerns raised.
Speaker 2: By activists inside and outside of the country, many have
Speaker 2: asked whether the country's prosperity has come at too high
Speaker 2: of a cost. This program was produced by Adrian Bradley.
Speaker 2: Don't forget to follow and review this show wherever you
Speaker 2: usually get your podcast. I'm Jennifer's Abasaja. Thanks as always
Speaker 2: for listening