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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot?

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Speaker 2: They're all for running against.

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Speaker 1: So smooth, so sweet, splendid sisting just glorious ex procution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: How shut with that shop of mind.

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Speaker 2: But buddy, and that's why you see nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying again the wall.

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Speaker 1: It's left to Wada, wide eyed drill pibus, How old Earth,

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Speaker 1: Big time.

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Speaker 2: Happens, getings everybody, and welcome back to Wondergirl, the soccer

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Speaker 2: betting podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael

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Speaker 2: Lee buff and joining me as always are my friends

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Speaker 2: and colleagues ANTHONYA. Bundo and bj Cunningham. And we've got

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Speaker 2: a full slate of Premier League matches to get into.

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Speaker 2: Then we'll talk about some Bundesliga La Liga League uh Syria,

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Speaker 2: a give out, a couple underdogs that we like this weekend,

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Speaker 2: and our favorite bets in the Premier League, and then

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Speaker 2: get out of here. But we will start on seven

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Speaker 2: thirty am Eastern time. It's a kickoff between Liverpool minus

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Speaker 2: eight hundred Watford. They're twenty to one on the money

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Speaker 2: line and the draws plus eight fifty on the three way.

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Speaker 2: It's an interesting setup here because Liverpool is getting Mossala

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Speaker 2: and Sadi Omane back from a very emotional trip to

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Speaker 2: Africa in the World Cup qualifiers that saw many Senegal

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Speaker 2: qualified by ousting Salas Egypt, so there could be some

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Speaker 2: emotional stuff there to deal with. Watford also has players

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Speaker 2: coming back like a small asar. But the thing that

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Speaker 2: we should touch on here is that Liverpool has been very,

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Speaker 2: very lucky defensively lately seven oho to zero win draw

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Speaker 2: loss in their last seven games played in the Premier League.

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Speaker 2: Seventeen goals for, one goal against. Their goals expected goals

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Speaker 2: for is kind are kind of in line with their

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Speaker 2: actual production, but they're expected goals against five expected goals against.

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Speaker 2: Suggests that here's some defensive regression coming. Is that right, Anthony,

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Speaker 2: damn right? It is? You know.

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Speaker 3: I think this Watford attack has been a little bit

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Speaker 3: better than I thought it was going to be under

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Speaker 3: Roy Hodgson, and I think that's really the biggest thing

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Speaker 3: in the reason I took some Watford team total over

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Speaker 3: a half at plus one ten since the new year,

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Speaker 3: Watford averaging one expected goal per ninety but they're only

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Speaker 3: scoring about point sixty four, so they have had a

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Speaker 3: finishing dip lately that I think is kind of playing

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Speaker 3: into this. Roy Hodgson has them playing very defensive narrative,

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Speaker 3: which is true. They are more defensive, they're better defensively,

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Speaker 3: but the attack has not been that bad. I mean,

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Speaker 3: it's still bad, but it's not that bad relatively. When

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Speaker 3: you look at the xguniversus the actual goals allowed in

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Speaker 3: Liverpool since January, first conceding about point eight seven expected

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Speaker 3: goals per ninety and only conceding about point four goals

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Speaker 3: per match. Now, some of that is Alison, you expect

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Speaker 3: them to overform a little, but if you look at

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Speaker 3: the post shot numbers, Allison only explains about half of

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Speaker 3: the over performance. The rest of it is just opponents

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Speaker 3: not shooting well against Liverpool and from a matchup point

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Speaker 3: of view, and the reason I'm not taking the plus

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Speaker 3: two and a half is because I do think Liverpool

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Speaker 3: has a clear incentive to run up scores because goal

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Speaker 3: difference could very well decide this league title. So I

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Speaker 3: think that's something you absolutely have to consider at the margins, where.

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Speaker 4: You know, in a normal situation, not that Liverpool ever really.

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Speaker 3: Sits on a lead, but they're going to be more

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Speaker 3: incentivized to go for it up toil three nil late,

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Speaker 3: and therefore I'm not taking the plus two and a

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Speaker 3: half because i do think this is a bad matchup

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Speaker 3: for Watford.

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Speaker 4: They can't really play through pressure.

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Speaker 3: They struggle against presses and we saw earlier this season,

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Speaker 3: different manager for Watford, but they got absolutely embarrassed.

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Speaker 4: In that game.

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Speaker 3: So I'm going to take Watford team total over a half.

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Speaker 3: My projections are actually pretty close to what the number is.

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Speaker 3: I project Liverpool's minus seven to ten, but they do

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Speaker 3: they play a bit more open and they take more

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Speaker 3: chances when they're playing at home and with the lead

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Speaker 3: because they're going to be chasing the goal difference. So

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Speaker 3: even if this is two three to zero, I think

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Speaker 3: Watford absolutely live to get on the board.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm kind of going in the same direction with you.

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Speaker 2: I actually like Watford at plus four twenty five to

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Speaker 2: score first. We've seen Liverpool do ship a goal to

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Speaker 2: Norwich City and need to come back, and it's not

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Speaker 2: out of the question for them to do. So. I

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Speaker 2: do want to touch on Hodgson for just a second

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Speaker 2: before I passed it a DJ. Since he took over

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Speaker 2: Watford's allowed fifteen goals against on eleven point six expected

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Speaker 2: goals in nine games played in the Premier League, He's

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Speaker 2: got a fantastic job with this team, completely turning it

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Speaker 2: around and giving them hope, which I don't think that

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Speaker 2: it looked like they had much hope in staying in

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Speaker 2: the Premier League after that Norich City loss in Claudio

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Speaker 2: Ranieri's last game. So yeah, I mean the hats off

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Speaker 2: to Roy Hodgson. I think Watford, in a couple of

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Speaker 2: different derivatives, are definitely live here and the value side,

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Speaker 2: and I'll probably have a little taste of the twenty

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Speaker 2: to one on the money line. What about you.

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Speaker 1: I have zero interest to bet in this game. I'm

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Speaker 1: glad you guys believe in the Watford offense because not

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Speaker 1: necessarily that I don't. I just really have once we

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Speaker 1: get later in the season, especially we'll talk about Manchester

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Speaker 1: City in a second. I just these teams with these

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Speaker 1: such large spreads against teams that are playing for relegation,

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Speaker 1: I just really have no interest I mean I have

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Speaker 1: Liverpool projected right at minus eight hundreds, so I'm pretty

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Speaker 1: much dead on with what it. You know, in terms

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Speaker 1: of the market. Has that last that game that they

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Speaker 1: played against Swatford. I vaguely remember basically Watford not being

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Speaker 1: able to get out of their own half of the

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Speaker 1: field and it was just Liverpool just constant onslaught after onslought.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they had a forty percent successful pressure rate

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Speaker 1: against Watford. So obviously when this game gets to a

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Speaker 1: blowout obviously plays into the Watford team total over a half.

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Speaker 1: But I just really have no interest in this line.

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Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna be passing and playing different games, so

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Speaker 1: I look forward to watching Liverpool win five to one.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think it's interesting.

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Speaker 3: This is the seven to thirty match Eastern Time, so

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Speaker 3: there is no better way to spend an early Saturday

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Speaker 3: morning on the East coast, or if you're in you know,

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Speaker 3: on the West coast, you know, four thirty am, getting

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Speaker 3: up and watching Watford get seven shots and then try

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Speaker 3: to score one of them. You know, I think that'll

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Speaker 3: be really fun. I project point sixty two goals for

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Speaker 3: Watford here, so I do think they have a decent

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Speaker 3: chance of getting just the one breakthrough that they're a

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Speaker 3: little doe for, so hopefully we get some some magic

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Speaker 3: and some Ishmael Asar or maybe a Musas Sosoco moment.

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Speaker 4: There's been a few of those this year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, he's been he's been a real boss in

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Speaker 2: the middle of the pitch for them, that's for sure.

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Speaker 1: City.

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Speaker 2: They're speaking of City, they're they're playing Burnley in at Turfmore.

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Speaker 2: Burnley's thirteen to one on the money line, Cities minus

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Speaker 2: four fifty the draws plus five fifty coming into the weekend,

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Speaker 2: Cities minus two twenty five to win the Premier League.

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Speaker 2: Liverpool comes back at plus one sixty five. Man City

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Speaker 2: is one point ahead. They're on seventy points, Liverpool at

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Speaker 2: sixty nine. They have a showdown coming against one another

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Speaker 2: in what about a week, so it's just a nice

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Speaker 2: kind of easier way into their next their next match

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Speaker 2: against one another. Burnley has been an absolute joy matchup

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Speaker 2: for a City since Pep Guardiola has taken over. They've

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Speaker 2: blown them out several times and they're coming into this.

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Speaker 2: Burnley's coming into this one in terrible form. They've lost

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Speaker 2: three in a row, eight to zerl on aggregate, and

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Speaker 2: you know, we know City had a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a whobble before the international break with the draw to

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Speaker 2: Crystal Palace. They had a lucky win against Everton, so

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Speaker 2: it doesn't seem it's not a terrible time. I don't

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Speaker 2: think to fade City, but I'm not going to be

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Speaker 2: doing it with this Burnley side. So I'll be passing

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Speaker 2: on City and Burnley BJ. What do you have?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm passing too obviously. You know. The narrative is

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Speaker 1: that Burnley plays much better a home than they do

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Speaker 1: on the road and some of the teams that have

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Speaker 1: come of stuff. Manchester United obviously comes to mind. The

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Speaker 1: problem is is before the international break, the Burnley defense

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Speaker 1: has just been so so sloppy, especially the Lester and

164
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Speaker 1: Chelsea games. They were playing a really good half against

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Speaker 1: Chelsea and then the thing's just completely fell apart from them.

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Speaker 1: And that's the worry that I have here against Manchester City.

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Speaker 1: I mean the last many between these two teams, Burnley

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Speaker 1: did create one expected goal and didn't score at the ETIAD.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean Manchester City, you could say, is

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Speaker 1: in a look ahead spot with the Champions League match

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Speaker 1: coming in the midweek. But against Athletic Co Madrid. But

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Speaker 1: I mean they're still in a huge Premier League title race,

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Speaker 1: so I don't really think it's that huge of a

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Speaker 1: look ahead spot. I have this projected dead on pretty

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Speaker 1: much with the over under and the money line spread,

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Speaker 1: whatever is out there. I just have no interest again

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Speaker 1: in playing this game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I think it's been a funny little spell from Burnley.

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Speaker 2: They had that really strong first stap against Liverpool, they

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Speaker 2: had a strong first staff against Chelsea and they just

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Speaker 2: were then we're played off the park and they beat

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Speaker 2: at them. Yeah, it's just been a very strange few

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Speaker 2: weeks for them, and then you know people start to

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Speaker 2: even them. Ditche is doing it again, He's gonna keep

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Speaker 2: them up. And then they lose three in a row

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Speaker 2: and give up eight to zero scored and yeah, their

187
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Speaker 2: defensive metrics all seasons, they've been very on Burnley, Anthony,

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Speaker 2: I think you're passing on this one as well.

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Speaker 4: I am. I think there's two different ways you could

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Speaker 4: look at this.

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Speaker 3: You could say, Okay City have four consecutive matches coming

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Speaker 3: up again Atletico Madrid, Liverpool, Atletico Madrid and Liverpool, and

193
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Speaker 3: they're not going to be entirely focused coming off the

194
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Speaker 3: international break on this tricky road trip to Burnley, and

195
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Speaker 3: thus it could be a sleepy under that they win

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Speaker 3: one to nil.

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Speaker 4: But on the other angle, and I just said this.

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Speaker 3: Liverpool City has to be worried about goal difference because

199
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Speaker 3: of how explosive Liverpool's offense is and in their attack

200
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Speaker 3: and their ability to pile up goals. Does that come

201
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Speaker 3: into consideration for City, who normally would sit on a

202
00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:48,800
Speaker 3: two goal lead, But if you've seen in the past,

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Speaker 3: they have the ability to run it up on Burnley

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Speaker 3: and it's just not been a good matchup for Sean

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Speaker 3: Dische in the past.

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Speaker 4: So I am passing here. No real interest from me,

207
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Speaker 4: although I.

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Speaker 3: Do concern a little bit about the potential look ahead

209
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Speaker 3: given the number of bigger fixtures against better teams coming

210
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Speaker 3: up the next two weeks for City, and I can't

211
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Speaker 3: wait for next week where we get to talk about

212
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Speaker 3: the City Liverpool matchup.

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Speaker 4: It's gonna be a lot of.

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Speaker 2: Fun staying in the ten am window. Chelsea their minus

215
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Speaker 2: two to ninety at home hosting Brentford. The Bees coming

216
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Speaker 2: back they're nine to one. The draw is four to

217
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Speaker 2: one on the three way money line. I think we

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Speaker 2: were hard on Chelsea a lot, and I do think

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Speaker 2: they do deserve a little bit of credit for the

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Speaker 2: way they've went into the international break four wins from

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Speaker 2: four matches, only three point three expected goals allowed in

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Speaker 2: their last five Premier League matches, and those came against

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Speaker 2: some decent competition not exactly Murderer's role, but Spurs, Palace, Newcastle,

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Speaker 2: all teams that were in decent form or at least

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Speaker 2: in Spurs case like that's a top four contender. So

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Speaker 2: hats off to Chelsea and Thomas Dukel, especially during this

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Speaker 2: incredibly strange time for them. But I think that at

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Speaker 2: this number there's I have a little bit of interest

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Speaker 2: on Brentford, who have started to play better. They were

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Speaker 2: unlucky in there last match in I guess Leicester. They

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Speaker 2: won the expected coals battle there, and they just seem

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Speaker 2: to be playing much more like the team that we

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Speaker 2: sort of fell in love with in the fall than

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Speaker 2: the team that was really struggling found itself in a

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Speaker 2: relegation battle in the winter. And Anthony, I know you're

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Speaker 2: back on the Brentford bandwagon as well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd like to say that I never left the

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Speaker 3: Brentford bandwagon, you know. I think there was a period

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Speaker 3: of struggle that they went through as teams adapted to

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Speaker 3: how they were playing. Their defense regressed, which I did

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Speaker 3: think would happen. We talked about that early in the year.

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Speaker 3: Their defense just was never going to hold up those

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Speaker 3: top seven eight numbers.

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Speaker 1: We looked at.

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Speaker 3: The personnel just didn't really match up. This is just

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Speaker 3: numbers for me. I project Chelsea as a one point

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Speaker 3: one to three goal favorite at home here and only

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Speaker 3: minus two ten to win. They're right around minus two

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Speaker 3: ninety minus three hundred.

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Speaker 4: Chelsea has only.

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Speaker 3: Conceded three goals from an expected six conceded on set pieces,

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Speaker 3: which is important against Brentford because Brentford number four in

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Speaker 3: the Premier League shots from set pieces, third in XG

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Speaker 3: from set pieces, but they're only ninth in goals.

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Speaker 4: So those regression indicators.

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Speaker 3: One of the main reasons Chelsea has overperformed this year

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Speaker 3: and one of the main reasons Brentford is underperformed in

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Speaker 3: terms of attacking and defending has come on set pieces,

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Speaker 3: where Brentford, we know, has put a lot of time

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Speaker 3: and resources into being advantaged on those. You know, whether

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Speaker 3: it's throw ins, corners or free kicks. They are one

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Speaker 3: of the best teams in the league at generating clear

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Speaker 3: chances off of those, and Brentford is the unluckiest team

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Speaker 3: in the league when you look across all the metrics,

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Speaker 3: forty seven goals conceded from just thirty nine expected, and

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Speaker 3: this is not a great spot for Chelsea, and I

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Speaker 3: feel like we've been saying that a lot, and you're right,

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Speaker 3: they do deserve credit. Their defense has played better, and

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Speaker 3: this was something BJ was on that I was still

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Speaker 3: a little skeptical of. The defense has played considerably better

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Speaker 3: leading into the international break, but now they're coming off

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Speaker 3: the break and they do have a brutal look ahead

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Speaker 3: with with Real Madrid on Wednesday.

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Speaker 4: They pretty much safe in third in the league. They're

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Speaker 4: not really.

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Speaker 3: Going up and they're probably not falling down unless something

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Speaker 3: really catastrophic were to happen, So really all their chips

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Speaker 3: go into Wednesday, So you know, you wonder what the

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Speaker 3: team may look like coming off of an international break

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Speaker 3: where a lot of their players are internationals, compared to

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Speaker 3: Brentford where that's.

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Speaker 4: Not really the case. Chelsea.

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Speaker 3: Also, you know, we talked about defensive regression so much.

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Speaker 3: One point two to five expected goals per ninety since January.

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Speaker 3: They're scoring about one point seventy five off of those,

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Speaker 3: so they have run a bit hot. It's coincided with

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Speaker 3: Lukaku being dropped, which is interesting.

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Speaker 4: But this team.

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Speaker 3: I took some Brentford first half plus a half, and

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Speaker 3: I took some Brentford plus one point five for the

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Speaker 3: full game.

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Speaker 4: I spit my unit there.

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Speaker 3: I just think Chelsea has the opportunity to explode at

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Speaker 3: any moment, and I wouldn't be surprised if they were

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Speaker 3: flat in the first.

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Speaker 4: Half and then rolled in the second half.

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Speaker 3: Or could also see a scenario where Chelsea's just kind

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Speaker 3: of up one nill and kind of rides it out

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Speaker 3: the whole game. So I'm going to ride with Brentford.

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Speaker 3: I do think the addition of Christian Erickson also makes

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Speaker 3: this team much more dangerous. We have already seen how

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Speaker 3: much he's meant for Denmark scored for Brentford as well,

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Speaker 3: so I think he makes a big difference for this team.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you put it pretty well right. This

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00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:08,960
Speaker 2: is a potential sleepy spot for Chelsea and Thomas Tookles

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Speaker 2: He's a very pragmatic and frank manager, so I don't

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Speaker 2: think he'd be the type of guy that would be

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Speaker 2: afraid of saying that, no, we are going to rotate

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Speaker 2: guys because of the Champions League coming and we're not

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Speaker 2: in the title race. So that's why I think the

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Speaker 2: nine to one on Brentford like, I'll gladly take a

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Speaker 2: shot at nine to one to find out if Chelsea

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Speaker 2: is going to sleepwalk through this one. And it does

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Speaker 2: seem like it's going to be a little bit. This

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Speaker 2: matchup makes it feel like it's going to be a

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Speaker 2: pretty cag affair, and I think that's where you're going,

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Speaker 2: right BJ.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, put some numbers to Anthony's point about Chelsea becoming

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Speaker 1: a really, really good defensive team again. They're basically back

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Speaker 1: to what we saw over the second half of the

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Speaker 1: season last year when Tuca took over. Since December sixteenth,

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Speaker 1: they're all allowing point six to six expected goals per

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Speaker 1: match and only one team who's Liverpool over that stretch,

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Speaker 1: has created over one expected goal against their defense, and

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Speaker 1: they've only allowed three big scoring chances in their last

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Speaker 1: ten minut matches, which is basically what Brentford lives off of.

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Speaker 1: But Anthony already mentioned it. The Chelsea offense hasn't really

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Speaker 1: been that great. I mean that were that same time

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Speaker 1: stretch since December sixteenth, only one point thirty nine expected

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Speaker 1: goals per match, So that means Chelsea's matches over the

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Speaker 1: past two and a half months are only averaging a

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Speaker 1: total of two point zero five expected goals. So that's

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Speaker 1: why I'm leaning more towards the under and Brentford. We've

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Speaker 1: seen their offense improve, but it has to be said

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Speaker 1: they have got some penalty luck. They got two penalties

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Speaker 1: against Norwich and one against Burnley, so if you take

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Speaker 1: away those penalties, six point one non penalty expected goals

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Speaker 1: in their last seven matches, and they have struggled against

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Speaker 1: some of the top defenses in the Premier League this

340
00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:41,800
Speaker 1: season seven point seven expected goals and eight matches against

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Speaker 1: the top five defenses unexpected goals lowed. What's interesting is

342
00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:48,280
Speaker 1: the first time that these two teams met, it was

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Speaker 1: kind of the peak of the Brentford unlucky stretch. Chelsea

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00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:58,120
Speaker 1: won won nothing at the Brentford Community Stadium, but Brentford

345
00:15:58,120 --> 00:15:59,800
Speaker 1: won the expected goals about a one point six to

346
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Speaker 1: point three and held Chelsea to five shots and only

347
00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:05,280
Speaker 1: twenty touches in the penalty area, so we obviously things

348
00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:08,080
Speaker 1: have changed a little bit since then, but we'll see

349
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Speaker 1: if they can hold Chelsea to that type of offensive output.

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Speaker 1: I think we're going to see a very low scoring game,

351
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Speaker 1: so I only have around two point two goals projected

352
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Speaker 1: for this match, so under two and a half goals

353
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Speaker 1: at minus one o five, So that's where I'm going

354
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Speaker 1: for this London derby.

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Speaker 2: We'll move on to Brighton Hove Albyon they're minus two

356
00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:28,240
Speaker 2: fifteen hosting Norich City. They're seven to one the Canaries are.

357
00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:30,920
Speaker 2: The draw is plus three thirty another ten am kickoff

358
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Speaker 2: on Saturday. Six losses on the spin for Brighton and

359
00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:37,280
Speaker 2: Hove Albion. They've been outscored thirteen to one in that

360
00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:39,760
Speaker 2: span and their expected goals numbers are not great, but

361
00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:43,440
Speaker 2: they do suggest that there's some positive regression coming five

362
00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:46,840
Speaker 2: point seven expected goals four and eleven expected goals against

363
00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:50,600
Speaker 2: and that span. Norwich'shho to five win draw loss in

364
00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:54,480
Speaker 2: their last five they are doomed for relegation once again.

365
00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:57,840
Speaker 2: They're giving up two point seven four expected goals per

366
00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:00,560
Speaker 2: match in that span and they've allowed at least three

367
00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:03,760
Speaker 2: expected goals three times in their last five matches. I

368
00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:06,200
Speaker 2: think it's a great get right spot for Brighton. I

369
00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:08,040
Speaker 2: like the minus one and a half at plus one

370
00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:11,840
Speaker 2: fifty and I don't mind, you know. I think Bjy'll

371
00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:13,920
Speaker 2: talk about this a little bit too. If you sit

372
00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:15,680
Speaker 2: back and just wait maybe ten minutes if it's a

373
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Speaker 2: scoreless match, then getting in at Brighton then, But pre match,

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Speaker 2: I think minus one and a half for me at

375
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Speaker 2: a good number, plus one fifty is where I'll be going.

376
00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:27,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that there is potential to wait and

377
00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,120
Speaker 1: get Brighton at a better number. I mean looking through

378
00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:34,680
Speaker 1: some of Brighton's numbers by essentially the timing of when

379
00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:38,399
Speaker 1: their goals come, They've actually been the cardiac Kings this

380
00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:41,120
Speaker 1: year in the Premier League. Ten of their twenty six

381
00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:43,680
Speaker 1: goals scored have come in the final fifteen minutes of

382
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:46,119
Speaker 1: the game. And that is where Norwich. In the final

383
00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:49,439
Speaker 1: fifteen minutes of each of the games this season, Norwich

384
00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,080
Speaker 1: has a minus ten point three expect a goal differential.

385
00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:54,159
Speaker 1: So I think you could see a scenario. I mean,

386
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:56,240
Speaker 1: this happens quite a bit with Brighton when they face

387
00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:59,439
Speaker 1: these sides that are essentially below them. You know what

388
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:01,360
Speaker 1: the games a going Watford and Leeds come to mind,

389
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:04,480
Speaker 1: especially with them being at home where they completely dominate

390
00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:06,720
Speaker 1: a match for the first however long it is, and

391
00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:08,680
Speaker 1: they either end up being a zero zero draw or

392
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:10,960
Speaker 1: they actually get the goal to go up one nothing.

393
00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:14,000
Speaker 1: So I think that this is a really good chance,

394
00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,679
Speaker 1: even if Brighton goes down early to jump in on

395
00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,600
Speaker 1: them live. They're really much better second half team than

396
00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:25,560
Speaker 1: they our first half. So you know, obviously Norwich has

397
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,080
Speaker 1: scored in four of their last five matches, so it's

398
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:30,040
Speaker 1: not out of the question that they get on the

399
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,479
Speaker 1: board here against Brighton and we can get them at

400
00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:35,919
Speaker 1: a good number live. I did lean pregame under two

401
00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:37,680
Speaker 1: and a half goals? Is that minus won twenty five?

402
00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:39,679
Speaker 1: Both you scored no at minus one fifty five. But

403
00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:42,560
Speaker 1: given the fact that Norwich has actually scored as of

404
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,960
Speaker 1: late and shown some signs offensively, that's keeping away from that.

405
00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:47,320
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think this is a good chance. Hopefully

406
00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:49,160
Speaker 1: we get a good opportunity to get in on Brighton Live.

407
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:52,240
Speaker 2: If you know, you're not terribly interested from a Benning perspective,

408
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:53,640
Speaker 2: but do you have two cents on this one?

409
00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:54,040
Speaker 1: Yeah?

410
00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:56,760
Speaker 3: I do, and you know, you know, I'm just sad

411
00:18:57,040 --> 00:18:59,120
Speaker 3: at this point, I'm sad because we had so much

412
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,800
Speaker 3: fun with Brighton, and really I have a Brighton to

413
00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,240
Speaker 3: finish top half ticket that I felt very good about

414
00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,200
Speaker 3: when they were sitting in seventh, you know, pretty comfortably

415
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,760
Speaker 3: into the season. Six straight league defeats. It feels like

416
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:11,919
Speaker 3: the magic's run out on our boys here. I'm not

417
00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:14,280
Speaker 3: sure what's going on, but of course it's not as

418
00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:16,440
Speaker 3: bad as those six defeats. Look, I mean, they're only

419
00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:20,199
Speaker 3: minus point three x g per ninety different which is

420
00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:23,200
Speaker 3: bad for them, but not nearly as bad as they've run.

421
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:25,919
Speaker 3: I mean they're minus one point three goal difference per

422
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,680
Speaker 3: ninety and that in controls for some red cards. Norwich

423
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,440
Speaker 3: does defend crosses relatively well. They keep crosses out of

424
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,560
Speaker 3: the box, which is a major key of how Brighton

425
00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:37,360
Speaker 3: likes to attack. I actually thought we'd get a cheap

426
00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:39,920
Speaker 3: number on Brighton. I bet them, but I mean, there's

427
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,760
Speaker 3: just no value there. So you could make a case

428
00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:45,240
Speaker 3: for a Brighton team total over if you like pain,

429
00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:47,639
Speaker 3: but the numbers not there, and Norwich has been so

430
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:51,000
Speaker 3: bad defensively. Also, you know, one team is still safe

431
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:52,760
Speaker 3: in the mid table and looks like they've checked out

432
00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:56,600
Speaker 3: a little bit the other team fighting for relegation. That's

433
00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:58,040
Speaker 3: all enough for me to stay away here. I don't

434
00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:01,199
Speaker 3: really have a strong read sides. Maybe if you if

435
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:02,920
Speaker 3: you're really itching about it, I would go Norge team

436
00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:04,880
Speaker 3: toll Over, but I'm personally not getting involved here.

437
00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:08,879
Speaker 2: One of the teams that Norwich is looking to chase

438
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:12,359
Speaker 2: for relegation is Leeds United and Jesse Marsh. Let's just

439
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,320
Speaker 2: set that up real quick. Brentford is in fifteenth place

440
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,360
Speaker 2: right now, thirty points from thirty games, Leads twenty nine

441
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:22,200
Speaker 2: points from thirty games, Everdon twenty five from twenty seven,

442
00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 2: wat Fine Michael Watford twenty two points from twenty nine,

443
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,400
Speaker 2: burn least twenty one points from twenty seven Norwich City

444
00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:34,000
Speaker 2: seventeen points from twenty nine games played. And if you

445
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,640
Speaker 2: look at the odds, Norwich is basically off the board

446
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:39,639
Speaker 2: at this point. Watford minus seven fifty to be relegated.

447
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,720
Speaker 2: Burn Lee's odds on minus one seven to five, Evertton

448
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,080
Speaker 2: plus two to twenty five true odds like minus five

449
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:48,200
Speaker 2: hundred if you're really looking for a true number. Leads

450
00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 2: plus two seventy five and then the Bees Brentford they're

451
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,359
Speaker 2: eight to one, so Leads. Let's talk about them for

452
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 2: a minute. They're plus one forty five at home to

453
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:59,439
Speaker 2: Southampton Ralph Housen hudlu side coming back at plus one

454
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 2: eighty the drug plus two sixty five. What do you

455
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 2: make of Leads? I'm gonna start with you, Anthony like

456
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,800
Speaker 2: it's two phot two windraw loss under Jesse Marshy expected.

457
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:10,639
Speaker 2: The coals numbers are terrific, almost double in terms of

458
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:14,199
Speaker 2: expected goals towards expected goals against eight point two eight

459
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 2: four four point twenty seven against. The goals numbers five

460
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 2: the actual goals five goals four seven goals against in

461
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:22,879
Speaker 2: that four game stretch. We know four game sample size

462
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 2: isn't enough to really make a robust conclusion from, but

463
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 2: is it enough to act on in a situation like this?

464
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 4: I think so.

465
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:34,720
Speaker 3: I think the Leads story of the season has to

466
00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:36,239
Speaker 3: really start at the beginning of the year when they

467
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:38,120
Speaker 3: were projected to get fifty three and a half points

468
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 3: and I thought that was high, but that's projected around

469
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:45,359
Speaker 3: tenth or eleventh And then what happened, right, so bielsa

470
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 3: burnout was real. They had major problems with health and

471
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 3: injury and not being able to press effectively and just

472
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:55,080
Speaker 3: conceding a dumb amount of expected goals and goals and

473
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,439
Speaker 3: really just couldn't stop anything. I mean, they were conceding

474
00:21:57,480 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 3: over two two and a half expected goals for about

475
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 3: a month, and a lot of that coincided with not

476
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 3: having Calvin Phillips, not having Liam Cooper, not having Luke Aling,

477
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 3: Stuart Dallas, Well, all of them are back, Melia Ailing, Dallas, Cooper,

478
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 3: Robin Cock, Calvin Phillips all expected to play on Saturday.

479
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:18,600
Speaker 3: Three hundred and thirty three minutes of Jesse Marsh ball

480
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,960
Speaker 3: Leeds plus point sixty four xg per ninety. That's impressive

481
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:25,880
Speaker 3: when you look at it. I know that also factors

482
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,439
Speaker 3: out the red card where they scored three goals on

483
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 3: Wolves in a half.

484
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:31,920
Speaker 4: Sorry guys, but.

485
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,160
Speaker 3: They've been extremely unlucky at both ends of the pitch

486
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 3: under Marsh, and this is not the first time Marsh

487
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 3: has been unlucky. I'm convinced he may just be cursed

488
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,880
Speaker 3: because Leipzig had the same problems. But they're a bet

489
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 3: on team for me for the rest of the season.

490
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 4: I'm buying low on this team. I really don't think

491
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 4: they're in danger of relegation.

492
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna end up relatively safe, clearly better

493
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,439
Speaker 3: than Everton and Burnley already ahead of them in the table,

494
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:54,680
Speaker 3: and they even you know, they were up a man,

495
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 3: but they did create one point four expected goals and

496
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 3: three goals when down up a man against Wolves, so I.

497
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,160
Speaker 4: Think that's still worth something given how.

498
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 3: Good we think Wolves defense is. I mean, though we're

499
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:08,399
Speaker 3: not really sold on that. And Saints have fallen off

500
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,640
Speaker 3: a bit. They were due for some regression. They've lost

501
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 3: four in a row in all competitions. They definitely have

502
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:16,920
Speaker 3: cooled a bit and now they're kind of just coasting here.

503
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 3: Southampton did dominate the last matchup, but again Leeds go

504
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 3: back and look at the lineup from that game. Leeds

505
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 3: played a bunch of academy guys in backups. So I

506
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 3: think this is a cheap number at home. Pick minus

507
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 3: one twenty one to.

508
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:29,879
Speaker 4: Thirty is fine.

509
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 3: It wouldn't go higher than one thirty because now you're

510
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 3: kind of paying a premium. But I think we're getting

511
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:38,159
Speaker 3: a really good buy on team for the rest of

512
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 3: the season.

513
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 2: In leads quick anecdote Leeds United fan, I don't know

514
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,120
Speaker 2: if anybody saw it, but over the weekend Buddy Franklin

515
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,880
Speaker 2: Lance Buddy Franklin of the Sydney Swans and the Australian

516
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 2: Football League kicked this one thousandth goal in all. The

517
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 2: fans rushed the fields and one of the sideline reporters

518
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:55,919
Speaker 2: was interviewing the fans and some guys started singing, we

519
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,879
Speaker 2: all love leads, we all love leads. So it just

520
00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 2: shows you that that fan and that home field advantages

521
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 2: is for real. On that note, Bjay, what do you

522
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:05,919
Speaker 2: have for leads and Saints?

523
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:10,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, shout out Ellen Road. You know it's interesting. Obviously

524
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 1: leads have improved under Jesse March is like no denying

525
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 1: that seven expected goals for and his four matches in charge.

526
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 1: But defensively, I even though the expected goals numbers are better,

527
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 1: I just still don't trust this leads defense. I'm gonna

528
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:23,879
Speaker 1: ask I'm gonnaive ask you guys a question. Do you

529
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 1: know the last month that Leeds had a clean sheet

530
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 1: in the Premier League Sober November November? I was gonna

531
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 1: guest October to November thirtieth against Crystal Palace is the

532
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 1: last time that they've actually had a clean sheet. That's

533
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:40,920
Speaker 1: nineteen matches consecutively where they can see it at least one goal,

534
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 1: so we can sit and talk here about how they've

535
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 1: been unlucky with the reality is they're dead last in

536
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 1: the Premier League and non pel the expected goals allowed

537
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 1: for a reason. So facing a Southampton offense that has

538
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,120
Speaker 1: been really good as of late one point seven expected

539
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 1: goals per match since the start of February, I am

540
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 1: expecting pure chaos in its entire match because we know

541
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:01,160
Speaker 1: that these are two of the most for neetic pressing

542
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 1: teams in the Premier League, but they're also two of

543
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 1: the worst teams against pressure. So I think we're just

544
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 1: going to see end to end a lot of not

545
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 1: a lot of build up play or possession base. It's

546
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 1: going to just be back and forth. Obviously, you know

547
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,360
Speaker 1: Calvin Phillips being back and gives Leads a lot more structure.

548
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 1: But I mean Leads is the heaviest counter attacking profile

549
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 1: the league. I mean they have seventy four direct attacks

550
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 1: this season, that's the most in the Premier League. So

551
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 1: I have little over three goals projected over three goals

552
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 1: is at plus one ten right now, I'm leaning towards

553
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 1: playing that. I'm just waiting to see if I could

554
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:35,640
Speaker 1: potentially get a better number, but I'm just expecting pure

555
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 1: chaos in this match.

556
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the biggest question is what do you

557
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 3: make of that period when Leeds were awful, awful, like

558
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 3: worse than relegation level defense. I mean, you can find

559
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 3: that out, but I'm not throwing it out. I just

560
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 3: don't know how to wait it properly. And that's my

561
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,679
Speaker 3: biggest question mark with with regards to their defense being

562
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:53,920
Speaker 3: as bad as it's been, because it has been better

563
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 3: in the four games with Marsh marginally, So I just

564
00:25:58,000 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 3: don't know.

565
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 4: I think it's an ongoing question, but I want I'm

566
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 4: willing to bet that they improve.

567
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 1: You can throw out that stretch and just say, all right, yep,

568
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 1: they're playing the Academy like whatever it is. But even

569
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,439
Speaker 1: as of late, I mean you can point I mean, obviously,

570
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 1: you know Southampton isn't at the lever of Liverpool, but

571
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,639
Speaker 1: I mean six, I mean five expected goals. You know,

572
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 1: you're looking at the game against aston Villa where they

573
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,439
Speaker 1: get a one point four, they got throttled by Everton

574
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 1: at home with a pretty full strength squad there, like

575
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,120
Speaker 1: this is still a pretty bad defense. I know they've

576
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:29,159
Speaker 1: improved against you know, Norwich and Wolves. I mean, those

577
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 1: are two of the worst offenses in the Premier League.

578
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:34,160
Speaker 1: So I still really don't trust this defense. I mean,

579
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 1: I think we just need more sample size than Jesse

580
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 1: Marsh to actually make a final conclusion just because of

581
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 1: how bad And obviously Leeds is one of these teams

582
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 1: stylistically that they play very open, so they're very vulnerable

583
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 1: to giving up these big type of scoring chances. And

584
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 1: when you have a goalkeeper like Melia who hasn't been

585
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,680
Speaker 1: very good this season, yeah, obviously in the league, worse

586
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 1: than the league, then yeah, their numbers are going to

587
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 1: look bad even but even though they're expected goals numbers

588
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 1: in Kate some regression positively, like there's still the worst

589
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 1: defense in the Premier League by expecting goals. So at

590
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,240
Speaker 1: some point you have to just sit here and say,

591
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 1: you know what, given the style of this this team

592
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,399
Speaker 1: plays like, their defense is just bad. They're just going

593
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:14,360
Speaker 1: to be wide open and they're gonna conceide chances, which

594
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:16,880
Speaker 1: is what we've seen the last two seasons, and they

595
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 1: haven't had the offensive output to make up for that.

596
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 1: So now that they have some of those player type

597
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 1: of players back. I think that we'll see the offensive

598
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,640
Speaker 1: output kickup. I mean you've seen in the last two games.

599
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 1: Obviously Wolve's got the red card, but I mean two

600
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 1: point seven against Norwich is a very positive sign going

601
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,360
Speaker 1: in the right direction. One point nine against Lester that's

602
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 1: another positive sign going in the right direction. So I

603
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 1: think we're going to see more high scoring games from Leeds.

604
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 1: Even though Calvin Phillips is back and gives them more structure,

605
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:42,880
Speaker 1: his defense is just still bad. I mean, I don't

606
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 1: think there's really a way of sugarcoating.

607
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 2: It from Yorkshire to the Black Country. For Wolves, they're

608
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 2: plus two hundred at home hosting s and Villa plus

609
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 2: one sixty five road favorite. The draw here is plus

610
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:55,880
Speaker 2: two or five. I don't know if I would make

611
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 2: Villa a road favorite in this matchup. I think it's

612
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 2: a little rich here. So I'm looking at Wolves. Both

613
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:04,479
Speaker 2: teams are in very inconsistent form. Wolves four to zero

614
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 2: and five win draw loss, Pillo three one and four

615
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 2: wind draw loss and their last seven Wolves four and

616
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 2: five of the US nine Wolves twelve goals four and

617
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 2: ten goals against in that span and the minus five

618
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 2: expected goal differential, so they've been even worse than that

619
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 2: record suggests. Meanwhile, Villa the three one and four record,

620
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 2: I think it's pretty fair if they're expected goals numbers

621
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 2: are basically that even as is their actual goal total.

622
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 2: So I just think in a mid table clash between

623
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:34,720
Speaker 2: two teams, I think you Wolves is still playing to

624
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 2: maybe sneak into the top six or get Europebook Conference

625
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 2: League or whatever. Villa they're comfortably mid table and not

626
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 2: much to play for here. I just think that this

627
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 2: number is a little high considering Wolves is at home

628
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 2: and Villa hasn't really been playing all that well. There's

629
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 2: I don't know if there's that much to separate these

630
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 2: two teams, So I'll take the two to one. I

631
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 2: think it's that simple on Wolverhampton, a team that has

632
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 2: been nothing but paying for me all season LONGY what

633
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 2: about you?

634
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 4: Yeah? You know this is a big revenge rivalry spot.

635
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 3: Villa was up to nil in this derby last time

636
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 3: they played, and then Wolves had the famous comeback. They

637
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 3: scored two goals in stoppage time, including the last kick

638
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 3: of the game, to win three to two. It was

639
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 3: actually a wild game, didn't I didn't have any money

640
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 3: on it, but it was a crazy finish. I actually

641
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 3: make Wolves a slight favorite at home, and think about that.

642
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 3: I mean, if you've listened to this podcast, I've been

643
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 3: the most anti Wolves guy, I think that on the

644
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 3: Earth in the last month two months. And yeah, I

645
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 3: just I mean, the market has no respect for this team.

646
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 3: Home underdogs to Villa was surprising to me. Like I said,

647
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 3: I I like Wolves a slight favorite. I kind of

648
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 3: want to play them, but I need a little more

649
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 3: value to play it. So I'm passing here. Hopefully we

650
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 3: get another three two thriller. I think it could be

651
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 3: a really good game.

652
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 2: BJ Are you thinking the same thing that Anthony and

653
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 2: I are?

654
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's you know, this this matchup more than anything,

655
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 1: It really really intrigues me. So first off, no ral

656
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 1: J Menez he suspended for this one, and no Ruben Nevez,

657
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 1: which obviously hurts Wolves, but I mean Anthony's talked about it.

658
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 1: Twenty five goals allowed from forty two point nine expected,

659
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 1: and you saw some of that, I know you saw.

660
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 1: I mean you saw some of that negaive regression hit

661
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 1: against Lee. It's obviously they were down to ten men,

662
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 1: but this is what tends to happen you know, statistically

663
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 1: is that you're going to regress towards the meme. The

664
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 1: main reason for that we've obviously talked about many times.

665
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 1: Jose Saw is just standing on his head plus ten

666
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 1: point one post shot x G plus minus. And secondly,

667
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 1: which I think highlights a bigger point about Wolves is

668
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 1: that stylistically in their tactics are just extremely conservative. Sitting

669
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 1: in the mid block, they allow teams to come into

670
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 1: the final third, but they're actually very good at not

671
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 1: allowing them to create high quality chances. Before the match

672
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 1: against Leeds, Wolves only allowed seven big scoring chances and

673
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 1: in their last thirteen matches and for the season there's

674
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 1: seventh in the Premier League and big scoring chances allowed.

675
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 1: Wolves offensively obviously has been struggling they you know, creating

676
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 1: only over one expected goal one time in the last

677
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:53,959
Speaker 1: ten matches. But I think it just highlights a bigger

678
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 1: tactical change under Bruno Lodge. You know, Wolves is very measured,

679
00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 1: meticulous in their build up play than rather than than

680
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 1: direct attacking style under Nuno Aspirio Santa. I mean Wolves,

681
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 1: they're eighth in the Premier League and ten plus pass

682
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 1: sequences per OPTA and then they're in the bottom half

683
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 1: of the league in direct speed, so that tells me

684
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 1: that they're more focused on possession based style going forward.

685
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 1: So even though they're drastically overperforming at both ends of

686
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 1: the pitch, their style of play really lends itself to

687
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 1: these low scoring, slow tempo type matches that Astonville, on

688
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:27,719
Speaker 1: the other hand, you know, under Stephen Gerrard, they've been

689
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 1: playing low events style matches too. I mean, they're only

690
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 1: averaging two point one four total expected goals per match,

691
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 1: and defensively they've been incredibly solid when they don't have

692
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 1: to play Man City, Chelsea or Liverpool. I mean in

693
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 1: the sixteen matches when they didn't have to play one

694
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:42,239
Speaker 1: of those three teams. Under Gerrard, aston Ville is only

695
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 1: allowing point eight five expected goals per match. So both

696
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 1: teams to score no is minus one oh five. You know,

697
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 1: under two and a half goals is priced pretty heavily.

698
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 1: I believe it's minus one twenty five and minus one

699
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 1: thirty right now. So getting both teams score no at

700
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 1: minus one oh five I think is a pretty decent price.

701
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 1: I have the line at at minus one sixty one.

702
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 1: But even though this match more than anything because Wolves

703
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 1: is a team I just can't figure out. I'm very

704
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 1: interested to see how they're going to play, uh and

705
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 1: set up against aston Bill because I agree with you guys,

706
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 1: and you might hear it a little bit later in

707
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 1: the underdog section, but I don't really understand why Wolves

708
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 1: is a home underdog here. I know they're without Nevis

709
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 1: and Ral Jimenez, but still, I mean it's quite shocking.

710
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 4: Honestly, I manage look pretty wash this year.

711
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I.

712
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 5: Mean they can play, yeah, and he Chan Wang's back,

713
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 5: so like they can there, they can piece together things

714
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 5: up forward, which I think, you know, sometimes they become

715
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 5: so focused on throwing crosses and getting the ball to

716
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 5: Jimenez and sometimes they've looked a little bit better when

717
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 5: it's Trincau and he Chann Wang and you know, other

718
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 5: type of attacking players up top playing maybe you know,

719
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 5: uh maybe a three four one two and playing two

720
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 5: strikers up top might benefit Wolves a little bit.

721
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 1: But it's just I'm very very interested to see how

722
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 1: Wolves is going to kind of play going forward, because

723
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 1: you know, like you mentioned, they're pretty close to being

724
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 1: comfortable in that getting close to that eighth spot, and

725
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 1: they'll see if they can make a push for top seven.

726
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm just I'm really interested to watch this

727
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 1: match from a tactical standpoint.

728
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:10,479
Speaker 2: The twelve thirty pm Eastern Time kickoff on Saturday eleven

729
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 2: thirty am Central Time, which is what they do in

730
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 2: BJ's native land of Iowa. That's Manchester United their minus

731
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 2: one ninety hosting Leicester City five to one on the

732
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 2: money line. This is interesting one because both of these teams.

733
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 2: I would say that Manchester United is just a much

734
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 2: better version of Leicester City what they've done this season.

735
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 2: They both Leicester City's got a terrible defense of the

736
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,959
Speaker 2: defense you can't trust. United's defense also can't trust. They

737
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 2: both can score in bunches on the counter. It's just

738
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 2: United's got better talent at doing that. So it's a

739
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 2: funny kind of Leicester City being a poor man's fan

740
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,959
Speaker 2: United the season. Over their last five matches for United

741
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 2: ten goals for, eight goals against and seventeen total x

742
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 2: G in those five matches, So they're playing very high

743
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:57,520
Speaker 2: event and we know what Lester does. They just ship

744
00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 2: goals for fun, six point eight next to goals allowed

745
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 2: in their last three matches against Leeds Arsenal in Brentford.

746
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 2: I think it feels like an over game. But I

747
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 2: I'm going to wait and maybe play this live after

748
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 2: a few minutes if it starts score less for me

749
00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:14,919
Speaker 2: the first ten to fifteen minutes, because as we've talked

750
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:17,880
Speaker 2: about with United, this is a team that their games

751
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:20,719
Speaker 2: just get off the rails eventually, so I wouldn't end

752
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 2: with Leicester. What better foil than Leicester City for that?

753
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 2: So give me a live over here between United and

754
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 2: Leicester BJ. What do you have?

755
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:33,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, both teams to score is at minus one fifty.

756
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:33,959
Speaker 1: I honestly think.

757
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 4: That's pretty cheap for how bad these two defense has been.

758
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 1: So you mentioned it. Lester six point eight expected goals

759
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:42,360
Speaker 1: in their last three matches to Brentford Arsenal and leads.

760
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 1: What do you think Christian Ronaldo and company are going

761
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 1: to do in this match? I mean, offense hasn't been

762
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 1: the problem for United. They've actually been quite good, you know,

763
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 1: when they don't have to play City, Chelsea or Liverpool,

764
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 1: they've been quite good. Twenty six matches against the rest

765
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 1: of the Premier League. They're averaging one point six to two

766
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 1: expected goals for match and they've actually created six teen

767
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 1: point six expected goals in their last seven matches in

768
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 1: the Premier League. And you know, the Red Devils are

769
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 1: pretty much right where they should be. They're sitting inside

770
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:09,800
Speaker 1: the top five in the Premier League and non penalty

771
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 1: expected goals, shots for ninety and big scoring chances. The

772
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:15,799
Speaker 1: problem is United runs into a lot of times is

773
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 1: they're just not great at playing through pressure. I mean

774
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:20,919
Speaker 1: their tenth in offensive pass per defensive action. You see

775
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 1: that a lot of times when they have to play

776
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 1: teams that can press them at high rate. Well, that's

777
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 1: not gonna be a problem against Leicester because they're about

778
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 1: a half the Premier League and pretty much every single

779
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 1: pressing metric the lesser offense. I mean, it has to

780
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:33,400
Speaker 1: be said and they have to be given some credit,

781
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 1: and they're basically the reason why they're sitting in tenth place.

782
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 1: I mean, they're they're seventh to non penalty expected goals.

783
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:41,719
Speaker 1: But what's crazy is that Lester has actually found the

784
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 1: back of the net in twenty two of their last

785
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 1: twenty seven matches. The five matches that they didn't score

786
00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 1: were against City, Liverpool, Chelsea and twice against Arsenal. So

787
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 1: basically the four best defense the Premier League. But more importantly,

788
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 1: they've created at least one expected goal in nineteen of

789
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 1: their twenty seven Premier League matches, and the last time

790
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 1: these two teams met it was chaos. I mean four

791
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:03,840
Speaker 1: to Lester win at the King Power Stadium featured forty

792
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 1: shots fifty eight shot creating actions. And I also have

793
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 1: to mention these are the two of the worst set

794
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:11,799
Speaker 1: piece defenses in the Premier League. Leicester thirteen point two

795
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 1: expected goles a lot off set pieces, Man United ten

796
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 1: point five expected goals allowed. So I am expecting chaos.

797
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,880
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't hate an over three goals. I

798
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 1: think I have this projected a little over three goals.

799
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:25,840
Speaker 1: But my bole team's score projection is minus one seventy,

800
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 1: so I think minus one fifties are ten cheap. So

801
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 1: that's where I'm going to this one.

802
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:32,560
Speaker 2: Anthony, You're actually thinking there might be a path to

803
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 2: success for the Foxes.

804
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:36,320
Speaker 3: Well, I think BJ mentioned to think about set pieces,

805
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 3: and it's true it's a major concern for Lester.

806
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 4: It has been all year.

807
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 3: They're the worst defense in the league, most shots, most

808
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:46,800
Speaker 3: xg allowed, second most goals allowed. But United has not

809
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:48,360
Speaker 3: really taken advantage.

810
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 4: Of set pieces. This year, They've been awful on them.

811
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:53,799
Speaker 3: Only Norwich has fewer set piece goals than United this year,

812
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 3: so I don't know that they can really exploit that

813
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 3: Lester weakness. My numbers also suggest there's a little bit

814
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:00,799
Speaker 3: of value on Lester. I make United about minus one

815
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:04,839
Speaker 3: forty eight in this game and they're about minus one eighty.

816
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 3: I show a little bit value on the plus one

817
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 3: that would be my lean for this. But again you

818
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,439
Speaker 3: mentioned it. United's attack has been so much better since

819
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:14,920
Speaker 3: Sancho and Pogma have been healthy, and that's just a

820
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:17,319
Speaker 3: concern for me, is that this attack could explode at

821
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 3: any moment, and they've run a bit cold in the

822
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,399
Speaker 3: last month month and a half. I know it's rare

823
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 3: because United usually runs ridiculously hot and has seemingly done

824
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:27,880
Speaker 3: so for the last year and a half. But they

825
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 3: have had a cold stretch and that could end at

826
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,840
Speaker 3: any time with regards to their finishing ability. And I

827
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 3: think you know, it wouldn't shock me if Lester were

828
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 3: the team to finally break. With that being said, I

829
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 3: agree Lester definitely has a lot of pass to success

830
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:42,480
Speaker 3: an attack here. Pats and Doca has been awesome. I

831
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:44,520
Speaker 3: think like if you're looking at Lester, it's been a

832
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 3: bad season, but his development as a potential body replacement

833
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 3: huge long term. But otherwise, yeah, I don't think there's

834
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:57,520
Speaker 3: a ton here Lester's defense. Also, since January first, one

835
00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 3: point eight expected goals allowed only conceded one point two goals,

836
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 3: so this defense has actually been getting a little fortunate

837
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 3: if anything. So I think this is just a major

838
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 3: stay away from me. With a slightly into Leicester.

839
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 2: Drome roll please we now flip to Sunday morning, nine

840
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:18,399
Speaker 2: am at the London Olympics Stadium, west Ham minus one

841
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 2: twenty five hosting Everdon plus three fifty that you're always

842
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 2: plus two seventy five. Like I said before, Everton are

843
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:26,759
Speaker 2: just north of two to one plus two twenty five

844
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 2: to be relegated with a huge match against Burnley on

845
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 2: the road coming into midweek, so a little bit of

846
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:35,240
Speaker 2: a look at spot. But they need to get points

847
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:38,560
Speaker 2: from any game possible and I don't think that they

848
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 2: they'll think that this one is too far out of

849
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:44,920
Speaker 2: reach against west Ham. That being said, it probably should be.

850
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,799
Speaker 2: Evertten's last four away matches zero to four would draw

851
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 2: lost two goals for twelve against and on the season.

852
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 2: Do you guys know how many away wins Everdon has

853
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:55,400
Speaker 2: this season?

854
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:58,719
Speaker 4: It should still be two, right, wrong, it's one.

855
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:02,360
Speaker 2: They're one three to nine the Premier League on the road. No,

856
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:04,800
Speaker 2: they beat Norwich at home. They've lost to them on

857
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 2: the road.

858
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 1: It was against that game.

859
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 2: It was actually against Brighton back in September. Since then,

860
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 2: no wins for Everton on the road and they've just

861
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 2: been abysmal. Ten goals for, twenty eight goals against in

862
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 2: thirteen games played away from Goodison Park. They're expected goals

863
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:24,680
Speaker 2: numbers twelve point one expected goals four on the road

864
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 2: twenty four expected goals against. This could be ugly, but

865
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 2: I do think that there should be enough opportunities for

866
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 2: Everyton to get on the board. This west Ham defense

867
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:36,879
Speaker 2: in their last five it gets good competition. Liverpool, Savia twice,

868
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 2: Spurs and essen Villa have allowed eight expected goals. They've

869
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:42,920
Speaker 2: scored or has created seven point four expected goals four.

870
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 2: So they played pretty high event style and we know

871
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:50,320
Speaker 2: Evertton's defense they're terrible, and so west Ham should carry

872
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 2: most of the water in terms of this play on

873
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:53,880
Speaker 2: the over here, I like to over two and a

874
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 2: f at minus one ten, but I do think Everdence

875
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:58,239
Speaker 2: should be able to do their part two and get

876
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:00,799
Speaker 2: on the board so half. I think it's way too

877
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 2: low for this total minus one ten, So I'll be

878
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 2: going there and watching this one under the covers, Anthony.

879
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 2: Anything for you west Ham and the Toffees.

880
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 3: You know, I make west Ham minus one ten, I

881
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 3: make Everton plus one ten to get a point. That's

882
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 3: exactly what the number is right now. I still don't

883
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:17,760
Speaker 3: like this west Ham team. I think the regression indicators

884
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:20,720
Speaker 3: point downward on them. They've been very lucky and finishing

885
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 3: and they've.

886
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 1: Been running very hot.

887
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 3: I'm hoping for some steam on west Ham so i

888
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:26,840
Speaker 3: can play the Toffees. But I tweeted this today. I

889
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 3: don't know if you saw it, Michael. We have now

890
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:32,319
Speaker 3: had six hundred and thirteen minutes. Yeah, you should bock

891
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:34,320
Speaker 3: me the six hundred and thirteen Premier League minutes of

892
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 3: Everton at eleven on eleven under Frank Lampard. In that

893
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:41,440
Speaker 3: time span, Everton is minus eight goal difference. They've averaged

894
00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:43,880
Speaker 3: point seven to seven expected goals per ninety, which is

895
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:44,880
Speaker 3: nineteenth in the league.

896
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:46,719
Speaker 4: They've allowed one point.

897
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 3: Sixty four expected goals per ninety, which is seventeenth in

898
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 3: the league, and their extra difference is nineteenth.

899
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:55,439
Speaker 4: Mina, Alan Townsend, Davies all out.

900
00:40:56,520 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 3: Just so hard to back this Everton team and I'm

901
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:00,799
Speaker 3: probably gonna look the I mean, the market's already out

902
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 3: for the Wednesday game.

903
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:04,800
Speaker 4: We'll talk about that on Monday, but I might be

904
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 4: fading them again on Wednesday. But overall here no play.

905
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 3: I'm hoping for west Ham's team and then I will

906
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:12,840
Speaker 3: begrudgingly be betting Everton if the number gets there, and

907
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:14,960
Speaker 3: right now happily passing.

908
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think the issues with Evertt and all stem

909
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:20,319
Speaker 2: from one area of the field, which is there back,

910
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 2: for which it's been a mess. Nobody can play a

911
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:25,880
Speaker 2: pass out of the back, which is how Lampard prefers

912
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:28,399
Speaker 2: to play and wants them to play, and they won't

913
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 2: defend with any confidence. John Joe Kenny is still getting

914
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:33,359
Speaker 2: game time. Seamus Coleman's thirty five years old and has

915
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:37,440
Speaker 2: played a ton for them. They're not confident enough, I guess.

916
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:39,920
Speaker 2: And Nathan Patterson yet, the young Scott who's looked good

917
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 2: for Scotland. Don't know why they bring him in the

918
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 2: middle of a relegation script. But if he's not going

919
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:47,799
Speaker 2: to play, hopefully he does, but I think that's why

920
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:50,360
Speaker 2: everything is so bad. Then the numbers look bad for

921
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 2: EVERYTT under Lampard, but I think a lot of it

922
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:55,279
Speaker 2: is just not his fault. All this all stems from

923
00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 2: having a brutal, brutal back for Michael Keene, Mason Holegate

924
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 2: Kidding a lot of time still in the center at

925
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 2: center backs, and Seamus Coleman and John Joe Kenny as

926
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:09,160
Speaker 2: the main fallback. So I just don't think you're going

927
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:11,279
Speaker 2: to see any improvement from this team in terms of

928
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:16,920
Speaker 2: underlying metrics with that defense. So we'll I'm just praying,

929
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 2: I'm gonna watch this game. I'm gonna be bricking it

930
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:21,400
Speaker 2: and just hoping that they can get through the season

931
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:24,920
Speaker 2: and then fix that. And Jerry Mina, wherever you are, man,

932
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 2: just please come back and help see us out BJ.

933
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, those fans of Everton relegation dog. I think we'll

934
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 1: probably spend what half hour forty five minutes on Monday

935
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 1: talking Everton Burnley. But yeah, I have really no interest

936
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 1: in this match. I have west Ham projected around minus

937
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:45,320
Speaker 1: one thirty. The problem for west Ham is no probably

938
00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:47,520
Speaker 1: no Jared Bowen and this match, which is just so

939
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:52,920
Speaker 1: huge for their offense. Anthony mentioned at the Everton numbers

940
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 1: under Frank Lampard are not good. Sorry to laugh a

941
00:42:55,000 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 1: little bit there, so I will happily be passing on

942
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:03,279
Speaker 1: this match shows I think the market is correct on it.

943
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:07,719
Speaker 2: The eleven thirty am kickoff on Sunday is Tottenham minus

944
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 2: one ninety five hosting Newcastle plus five to fifty. The

945
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:12,400
Speaker 2: draw is plus three thirty. The last time we saw

946
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:16,759
Speaker 2: Newcastle they somehow lost to ten minute Everdon on the

947
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 2: road in a game that featured a oil protester tying

948
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:23,919
Speaker 2: himself by his neck to a post that Couldison park

949
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 2: and then a ninety eighth minute winner from Alex We'll

950
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 2: be of all people. It looked like Everton were back baby,

951
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 2: and then they lost four nil in the FA Cup quarterfinals.

952
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 2: This crystal Palace on the road. So back to the

953
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 2: ledge we go. Anyways, last seven games for Newcastle five

954
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 2: zero and two win, draw, lost, nineteen goals for, seven

955
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 2: goals against, fourteen points six expected goals for and eight

956
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 2: point seven expectacles against. They're also playing some pretty high

957
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:52,720
Speaker 2: event soccer of late, and I think that just bodes

958
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 2: really well for Tottenham, a team that thrives off the ball,

959
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 2: being on the floor and picking off passes and spring

960
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 2: encounters with Kan, so a pretty tough matchup. I think

961
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:04,040
Speaker 2: for Eddie how he loves putting the football on the

962
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 2: carpet and it's just playing right into Antonio Conte's hands.

963
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 2: So I'll probably be passing on this one. I think

964
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:13,280
Speaker 2: this has Spurs by multiple goals written on it. Anthony,

965
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 2: what do you have?

966
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:16,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I lean toward the over. I don't have a

967
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 4: ton on this. I think that we've talked about Spurs overs.

968
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:22,200
Speaker 3: They've gone over. I think five of their last six.

969
00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:25,800
Speaker 3: A lot of that has to do with this attacking. Finally,

970
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:28,600
Speaker 3: Kane and Son taking their chances. They even should have

971
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:30,279
Speaker 3: gone over, and again they went under because there was

972
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:33,160
Speaker 3: a bad penalty miss call by the referee. And so

973
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:35,480
Speaker 3: I think this Tottenham attack is firing on all cylinders.

974
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:37,279
Speaker 3: The most impressive thing to me, and I don't think

975
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:39,560
Speaker 3: any of us saw this coming was Newcastle and how

976
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:41,640
Speaker 3: good they've been defending without the ball. That's not very

977
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 3: Eddie Howe like they've made somehow this work with John,

978
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 3: Joe Shelby and Joe Willock and Joe Linton as a

979
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 3: midfielder now apparently, and you know they've made some additions

980
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 3: at the defensive situation. I mean, Dan Byrne is decent,

981
00:44:55,520 --> 00:45:00,719
Speaker 3: Tripier's good, but injured Target has improved them. But none

982
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 3: of these guys are really headline guys, so I just

983
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 3: I'm a little skeptical and they've run really hot, so

984
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:07,880
Speaker 3: I think this run ends here. I don't show a

985
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 3: ton of value in Tottenham, but I am putting them

986
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,320
Speaker 3: in a money line parlay, which I almost never do.

987
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:14,920
Speaker 3: But there's two spots on favorites that I really like

988
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:17,839
Speaker 3: this week in situations where the number is a bit

989
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:19,840
Speaker 3: inflated for me to lay it, so I'm going to

990
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:22,160
Speaker 3: parlay them. It is square, but it is fun and

991
00:45:22,239 --> 00:45:24,719
Speaker 3: the Spurs are the first leg parlaying them with a

992
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:27,000
Speaker 3: game we're probably not going to talk about, but Barcelona

993
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 3: against the Sevilla luck box just going to ride the

994
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 3: hot Barcelona train until it crashes. Because I've been saying

995
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 3: this and we've all kind of hinted at this that Bars'

996
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 3: is back. Well, I think they announced that in a

997
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:39,959
Speaker 3: big way against Real Madrid prior to the international break,

998
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 3: and there's really nothing stopping them from a second place finish.

999
00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 4: In La Liga.

1000
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:46,319
Speaker 3: So I'm going with the Spurs bars some money line

1001
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:48,799
Speaker 3: parlay already tracked in the app, probably like the third

1002
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:51,360
Speaker 3: parlay I've done this year, but two spots I like

1003
00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:51,960
Speaker 3: on favorites.

1004
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I should note that I meant Spurs for five.

1005
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 2: I read Spurs last seven record. They're five zero and two,

1006
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:04,320
Speaker 2: not Newcassel. My mistake. There BJ, anything for you, Spurs

1007
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:05,400
Speaker 2: and the Magpies.

1008
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:08,759
Speaker 1: No, I'm just I'm passing on this one. But I'm

1009
00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 1: really looking forward to Antonio Conte's introductory press conference at

1010
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:14,239
Speaker 1: PSG next year. That's what I'm looking forward to.

1011
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 2: Great, let's move on to Monday, then Crystal Palace. They're

1012
00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:20,719
Speaker 2: plus two to ninety at home, hosting BJ's arsenal even

1013
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:23,359
Speaker 2: money on the road to trust plus two thirty five.

1014
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:26,760
Speaker 2: I think this number is a little rich on the Gunners.

1015
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 2: We've talked a lot about Crystal Palace, both defensively their

1016
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:33,240
Speaker 2: fifth and non penalty expected goals allowed sixth and shots

1017
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 2: per ninety fourth and big chances allowed overall, and their

1018
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:40,320
Speaker 2: home numbers are just terrific despite a record that reads

1019
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 2: four wins seven draws, and four losses. They have the

1020
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 2: fourth best expected points in terms of home form in

1021
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:50,799
Speaker 2: the Premier League this season. Arsenal They've been really good

1022
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 2: over for the past three months. They only have two

1023
00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 2: losses since December fifth, when they lost to evert In

1024
00:46:56,239 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 2: of all people, and those two losses came to Manchester

1025
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:03,080
Speaker 2: City and Liverpool. Well, however, they're expected goals numbers aren't

1026
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:05,280
Speaker 2: great away from home minus four point five to expect

1027
00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:08,920
Speaker 2: a goal difference away from the Emirates. So I think

1028
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 2: palace here is full value for an underdog play plus

1029
00:47:12,080 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 2: two ninety on Patrick Fierra's side. That's where it'll be

1030
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:18,560
Speaker 2: going for a little Monday night football magic. Anthony, what

1031
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:18,960
Speaker 2: about you?

1032
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I wrote in my notes here it's put up

1033
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 3: or shut up time for me on Arsenal. I look back,

1034
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 3: I've only only bet one game that Arsenal's played the

1035
00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 3: last eight.

1036
00:47:27,040 --> 00:47:29,560
Speaker 4: Pre match. I'm just han't had a strong read on them.

1037
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 3: I've kind of been looking for spots to sell high,

1038
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:34,880
Speaker 3: but I also don't know where that point is and

1039
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:36,360
Speaker 3: I think this is a great spot to do it,

1040
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:38,239
Speaker 3: and looking at the fixture list, I think I'm going

1041
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:39,839
Speaker 3: to be fading them a good amount in the next month,

1042
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 3: and then it looks like we've got our date Bjay May.

1043
00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 3: The week of the week of May eleventh and May

1044
00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 3: twelfth looks like it's going to be in the derby

1045
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:50,320
Speaker 3: Day May.

1046
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:50,279
Speaker 4: Decide top four.

1047
00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:50,759
Speaker 1: We'll see.

1048
00:47:51,320 --> 00:47:52,560
Speaker 4: You don't think it will I think it may.

1049
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 3: Arsenal is interesting statistically when you look at their profile,

1050
00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 3: because they're not really possessing the ball more. They're not

1051
00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:01,120
Speaker 3: really doing anything when you look at their numbers between

1052
00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:05,320
Speaker 3: box entries and shots. Of course they're getting more shots

1053
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:08,040
Speaker 3: and chances than their opponents, and their defense improved a lot,

1054
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:10,600
Speaker 3: but their fourth in the Premier League in high turnovers

1055
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:14,160
Speaker 3: force despite being fourteenth and passes per defensive action. The

1056
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:17,520
Speaker 3: only three teams who have more high turnovers Liverpool, Southampton

1057
00:48:17,600 --> 00:48:21,279
Speaker 3: and Leeds. But Palace are very comfortable and playing in

1058
00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:24,360
Speaker 3: these kind of games that are a little bit prenetic,

1059
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 3: a little bit more uptempo. Guys like Connor Gallagher. They

1060
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:29,719
Speaker 3: have good ball carrying center backsh I think it's really

1061
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:32,440
Speaker 3: important when you play Arsenal. I have not bet, like

1062
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:33,800
Speaker 3: I said, an Arsenal match in a while, but I

1063
00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:36,440
Speaker 3: think this is to sell high because ESR Msmith Row

1064
00:48:36,800 --> 00:48:40,640
Speaker 3: and Soccer now have eighteen goals this season from eleven expected.

1065
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 3: They're running very hot, and defensively too, there's some regression coming.

1066
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 3: Aaron Ramsay is actually a below average keeper. I was

1067
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:49,640
Speaker 3: surprised to realize that maybe he's just a camera keeper.

1068
00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:52,480
Speaker 3: But thirty one goals against from just twenty seven post

1069
00:48:52,520 --> 00:48:55,960
Speaker 3: shot and thirty four expected goals allowed, so all that

1070
00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:58,600
Speaker 3: indicates that they've been a bit fortunate defensively. And of

1071
00:48:58,680 --> 00:49:01,359
Speaker 3: course Palace at home, I mean they've been so great

1072
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:03,320
Speaker 3: this year at home plus point six x cheap or

1073
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:06,880
Speaker 3: ninety difference. So I'm backing the Eagles to get a

1074
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 3: result at home and throw a little wrench in this

1075
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:13,520
Speaker 3: top four race and hopefully you know, from a fan perspective,

1076
00:49:13,520 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 3: of course I want Totten to be in this till

1077
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 3: the final week. But from a neutral, I think even

1078
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:19,040
Speaker 3: Michael would say it would be a hell of a

1079
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:21,560
Speaker 3: Darby if it was deciding Champions League in about a month.

1080
00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think Palace. We saw it against Man City.

1081
00:49:24,719 --> 00:49:27,480
Speaker 2: They are the perfect spoiler for these kind of races

1082
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:29,560
Speaker 2: in the Premier League, especially when you got to do

1083
00:49:29,640 --> 00:49:32,080
Speaker 2: it at home. So I think Palace man that I

1084
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:33,640
Speaker 2: think this number is way too good to be true

1085
00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:35,840
Speaker 2: plus two ninety on the money line, BJ, what do

1086
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:36,880
Speaker 2: you have on your gunners?

1087
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:41,480
Speaker 1: Well, Selhurst Park is the place that the Giants go

1088
00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 1: to be slayed, So no, it doesn't give me a

1089
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:47,880
Speaker 1: good feeling at all. I mean they against so Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea,

1090
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 1: Tottenham and West Ham have all made a trip to

1091
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:53,560
Speaker 1: Selhurst Park this season and Crystal Palace has a plus

1092
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:56,320
Speaker 1: one point five expect a gold differential in those matches

1093
00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:58,879
Speaker 1: and overall of the season plus seven expect a gold

1094
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 1: differential at home. What's funny about Crystal Palace is defensively

1095
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:07,640
Speaker 1: they're outstanding at defending from open play only twenty one

1096
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:09,520
Speaker 1: expected goals allowed from open play this season, which is

1097
00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:12,000
Speaker 1: actually fourth in the Premier League, just slightly behind Chelsea,

1098
00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:16,120
Speaker 1: but they've been awful on set pieces thirteen goals allowed

1099
00:50:16,160 --> 00:50:17,880
Speaker 1: on this season. Arsenal does have eleven goals off of

1100
00:50:17,920 --> 00:50:20,880
Speaker 1: set pieces, so that is a worry for Crystal Palace.

1101
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:23,279
Speaker 1: But with that being said, from a market perspective, I

1102
00:50:23,280 --> 00:50:26,600
Speaker 1: mean Arsenal's Arsenal's overvalued here and they just are. I

1103
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:29,760
Speaker 1: mean the Arsenal is the type of offense that generates

1104
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:32,680
Speaker 1: a ton of shots, but not many high quality ones,

1105
00:50:32,719 --> 00:50:35,840
Speaker 1: so which is why you see, like Anthony mentioned, Emil

1106
00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 1: Smith Row and Kayasaka over performing a tad this season.

1107
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:43,279
Speaker 1: I mean, Arsenal's XTG per shot is point one, which

1108
00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:46,520
Speaker 1: is actually quite low. So facing Crystal Palace defense, that's

1109
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:49,439
Speaker 1: top five in terms of expected goals allowed and also

1110
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:51,839
Speaker 1: top five in terms of expected goals allowed per shot.

1111
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:54,080
Speaker 1: So I think it's gonna be difficult here for Arsenal

1112
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:55,920
Speaker 1: to create a lot of high quality chances. I have

1113
00:50:56,680 --> 00:50:58,920
Speaker 1: this match projected actually pretty close to it Pickham so

1114
00:51:00,239 --> 00:51:02,239
Speaker 1: he definitely is on Krystal Palace plus half a goal

1115
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 1: at minus one fifteen, and this just screams like one

1116
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:07,040
Speaker 1: one draw to me.

1117
00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:11,400
Speaker 2: All Right, really really interesting slate of Premier League matches.

1118
00:51:11,440 --> 00:51:13,480
Speaker 2: We've gone on for a while here, so let's quickly

1119
00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:16,279
Speaker 2: get through some of our favorite bets in the rest

1120
00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:18,960
Speaker 2: of Europe. We'll start in the Bundesliga and we'll start

1121
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:19,600
Speaker 2: with you, Anthony.

1122
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 3: This was the first bet I made when I took

1123
00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 3: my first pass through the card on Monday. Leverkusen and

1124
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:27,239
Speaker 3: Hair to Berlin under three and a quarter goals at

1125
00:51:27,320 --> 00:51:30,040
Speaker 3: minus one fifteen. I might go broke betting this hair

1126
00:51:30,120 --> 00:51:32,480
Speaker 3: to team to start playing better than they have played.

1127
00:51:33,160 --> 00:51:35,160
Speaker 3: They did defend very well in a goalless draw they

1128
00:51:35,200 --> 00:51:37,640
Speaker 3: had with Hoffenheim just before the break, a team who

1129
00:51:37,680 --> 00:51:39,080
Speaker 3: I think is similarly due for a little bit of

1130
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 3: attacking regression. This Leverkusen team may not have Patrick Schick now.

1131
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:44,960
Speaker 3: He did not play for the Czech Republic in their

1132
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:47,880
Speaker 3: World Cup qualifying match and he was withdrawn from the

1133
00:51:47,920 --> 00:51:49,879
Speaker 3: team due to an injury, so we don't know yet

1134
00:51:49,960 --> 00:51:51,960
Speaker 3: what his status is. But if he's out, I mean

1135
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,680
Speaker 3: he's the hottest striker in the Bundesliga based on finishing.

1136
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:58,680
Speaker 4: He is their best chance taker and again, sixty six

1137
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:00,560
Speaker 4: goals from fifty expected is absurd.

1138
00:52:00,640 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 3: But they have struggled a little bit lately, and they

1139
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:05,879
Speaker 3: didn't score against Adalanta at home in a must win

1140
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:08,520
Speaker 3: spot in the Europa League, and then they needed two

1141
00:52:08,640 --> 00:52:11,480
Speaker 3: late goals against Wolfsburg in the final five minutes in

1142
00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:11,799
Speaker 3: the game.

1143
00:52:11,840 --> 00:52:13,479
Speaker 4: They were pretty dominated at home.

1144
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:16,719
Speaker 3: So I'm just not sure what we're going to get

1145
00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 3: from this Leverkusen team, especially if Shick is not able

1146
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:19,840
Speaker 3: to go.

1147
00:52:20,280 --> 00:52:21,920
Speaker 4: Harta is pretty compact defensively.

1148
00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:24,799
Speaker 3: They're gonna let Leverkusin have the ball, which doesn't really

1149
00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:27,920
Speaker 3: help Leverkusen, who prefers to play in transition, prefers to

1150
00:52:27,960 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 3: play in space, and the hairta again forty seven expected

1151
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:33,040
Speaker 3: goals allowed, but they can see it over sixty this year.

1152
00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:35,880
Speaker 3: So this team, as bad as they've been, they're never

1153
00:52:35,920 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 3: as bad as it looks. And I think that's really

1154
00:52:37,640 --> 00:52:39,880
Speaker 3: the case with Harta, and only thirty three percent of

1155
00:52:39,920 --> 00:52:43,160
Speaker 3: their variants between those two numbers is really poor goalkeeper play,

1156
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:45,879
Speaker 3: whereas everything else has come down to just bad luck.

1157
00:52:46,040 --> 00:52:49,479
Speaker 3: So I'm taking the under. I do think Leverkusen wins,

1158
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:51,560
Speaker 3: they're at home. They're a much better team, but like

1159
00:52:51,640 --> 00:52:53,040
Speaker 3: I see, it's like a two to one, you know,

1160
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 3: two zero type game, maybe one one zero. Could see

1161
00:52:55,760 --> 00:52:58,040
Speaker 3: maybe a point for Harta, but don't see a ton

1162
00:52:58,080 --> 00:52:58,560
Speaker 3: of goals in this.

1163
00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:02,879
Speaker 2: I like the dojortmand Leipzig under three at plus one

1164
00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:05,520
Speaker 2: hundred right now, that's a Saturday twelve thirty pm kickoff.

1165
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:09,879
Speaker 2: Since January first, RB Leipsig eight goals allowed, that's first

1166
00:53:09,920 --> 00:53:12,720
Speaker 2: in the Bundesliga. Nine point four two expected goes allout

1167
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:16,000
Speaker 2: that's also first, and they're overperforming on offense twenty seven

1168
00:53:16,040 --> 00:53:19,120
Speaker 2: goals for on eighteen point three expected goes for. Then

1169
00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 2: you go to Dortmund since January first that same span,

1170
00:53:22,280 --> 00:53:25,480
Speaker 2: twelve goals allowed. That's third, eleven point six expected goes

1171
00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:28,200
Speaker 2: allowed also third, and they're also overperforming on offense twenty

1172
00:53:28,239 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 2: six goals for on nineteen point one expected goals for.

1173
00:53:31,840 --> 00:53:34,640
Speaker 2: So I'll take the under in a pretty big match

1174
00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:39,120
Speaker 2: for both teams, especially Dortmund, the erling Holland farewell tour

1175
00:53:39,600 --> 00:53:42,359
Speaker 2: trying to catch Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. I'll take

1176
00:53:42,360 --> 00:53:46,759
Speaker 2: the under three even money on Saturday at noon DJ.

1177
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:49,120
Speaker 1: What do you got going back to our boys from

1178
00:53:49,200 --> 00:53:52,960
Speaker 1: Mines plus half a goal minus one forty five against Glodboch.

1179
00:53:53,160 --> 00:53:56,200
Speaker 1: I mean Glodboch defensively, it's been bad for a long time.

1180
00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:56,480
Speaker 3: Now.

1181
00:53:56,920 --> 00:53:59,279
Speaker 1: Only teams they've held under one expected goal in the

1182
00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:02,680
Speaker 1: last fifteen matches Armenia, BA Field and hurt to Berlin,

1183
00:54:02,760 --> 00:54:05,879
Speaker 1: two of the worst offenses in the Bundesliga. You've mentioned

1184
00:54:05,920 --> 00:54:08,520
Speaker 1: a couple of times, Michael, but the bose Fenson revolution

1185
00:54:08,719 --> 00:54:12,040
Speaker 1: that has hit Miness. Just what he's done is he's

1186
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:14,640
Speaker 1: switched them tactically to a three four two one. It's

1187
00:54:14,680 --> 00:54:17,000
Speaker 1: given them so much more flexibility, and he's also turned

1188
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:19,239
Speaker 1: them just into a pressing monster. I mean they're six

1189
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:23,240
Speaker 1: in high turnovers and they've have six goals off those turnovers,

1190
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:25,759
Speaker 1: which is the most in the Bundesliga per optus. So

1191
00:54:26,200 --> 00:54:29,320
Speaker 1: for a Glodbock team that is awful in transition defense

1192
00:54:29,400 --> 00:54:32,800
Speaker 1: and very suceptible to getting beat on the counter and

1193
00:54:32,880 --> 00:54:35,520
Speaker 1: giving up big scoring chances, I think this is a

1194
00:54:35,680 --> 00:54:37,759
Speaker 1: really good matchup for Mines. Not to mention, the last

1195
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:40,279
Speaker 1: time these two teams met, Glodbach was only able to

1196
00:54:40,360 --> 00:54:43,720
Speaker 1: muster twelve shots in fifteen touches in minds penalty areas,

1197
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:46,600
Speaker 1: So I actually have Mines projected pretty close to a

1198
00:54:46,640 --> 00:54:49,439
Speaker 1: pick them with Claudbox. So I definitely love them plus

1199
00:54:49,480 --> 00:54:50,719
Speaker 1: ethical and minus one forty five.

1200
00:54:50,840 --> 00:54:53,080
Speaker 2: All right, let's stay with you for your favorite bet

1201
00:54:53,160 --> 00:54:53,680
Speaker 2: in Syria.

1202
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:56,600
Speaker 1: Ah yeah, ac Milan Bologna under two and a half

1203
00:54:56,600 --> 00:54:59,600
Speaker 1: goals a plus one of five, the AC Milan resurgence

1204
00:54:59,719 --> 00:55:01,480
Speaker 1: up to the top of the table and especially over

1205
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:03,719
Speaker 1: the past two years. This really can be summed up

1206
00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:06,040
Speaker 1: how rock Solidy've been defensively. I mean this season're only

1207
00:55:06,080 --> 00:55:09,160
Speaker 1: allowing zero point eighty five non penalty expected goals per

1208
00:55:09,239 --> 00:55:12,520
Speaker 1: match and they become a nightmare to try to play through.

1209
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:14,319
Speaker 1: In terms of their pressing, I mean it's been really,

1210
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:16,600
Speaker 1: really good. I mean there's their passive per defensive action

1211
00:55:16,760 --> 00:55:18,719
Speaker 1: is sitting at eight point eight and they're forcing a

1212
00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:20,880
Speaker 1: little over nine high turnovers per match, which is the

1213
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:24,040
Speaker 1: most in Syria. Ah, well, that's great. It hasn't really

1214
00:55:24,160 --> 00:55:27,360
Speaker 1: lent itself to high quality chances at the other end

1215
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:29,280
Speaker 1: of the pitch. I mean, they only have three goals

1216
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:32,120
Speaker 1: off of all those high turnovers this year, and honestly,

1217
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:34,440
Speaker 1: the Milan offense just hasn't been creating many chances lately.

1218
00:55:34,560 --> 00:55:36,600
Speaker 1: Nine point four expected goals in the last eight matches.

1219
00:55:36,640 --> 00:55:39,280
Speaker 1: They're outside the top ten and big scoring chances, while Bologna,

1220
00:55:39,520 --> 00:55:42,040
Speaker 1: who isn't that great of a defensive team, was still

1221
00:55:42,080 --> 00:55:44,840
Speaker 1: six then big scoring chances allowed, and the Bolognia offense

1222
00:55:44,880 --> 00:55:48,040
Speaker 1: has been very pitiful all season long, but eight point

1223
00:55:48,040 --> 00:55:50,560
Speaker 1: six expected goals in the last ten matches. The problem

1224
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:53,560
Speaker 1: is they're just way too reliant on set pieces. You know,

1225
00:55:53,680 --> 00:55:56,640
Speaker 1: nineteen from open play, nine from set pieces this season.

1226
00:55:57,040 --> 00:56:01,000
Speaker 1: That's just not great and really concerning. If you just

1227
00:56:01,160 --> 00:56:03,680
Speaker 1: need a lot of corners and free kicks score a

1228
00:56:03,680 --> 00:56:07,000
Speaker 1: lot of your goals, which is not good against really

1229
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:09,480
Speaker 1: good defense like AC Milan. So I only have two

1230
00:56:09,520 --> 00:56:11,400
Speaker 1: point two goals projected for this one. So I like

1231
00:56:11,520 --> 00:56:13,120
Speaker 1: under two a half goals at plus one five.

1232
00:56:13,280 --> 00:56:15,400
Speaker 2: Anthony, what about you in Italy?

1233
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:18,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, Latzio, so swallow under three goals at minus one

1234
00:56:18,840 --> 00:56:21,120
Speaker 3: zh five. I only project two point six y nine

1235
00:56:21,200 --> 00:56:23,880
Speaker 3: for this game. Lotzio only had six shots on the

1236
00:56:23,960 --> 00:56:25,600
Speaker 3: road the last time these two teams played in a

1237
00:56:25,640 --> 00:56:28,719
Speaker 3: two to one loss, the only two expected goals in

1238
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:31,920
Speaker 3: that match. Both teams are the two biggest attacking overachievers

1239
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:35,280
Speaker 3: in all of Syria, along with Milan. Those three teams

1240
00:56:35,360 --> 00:56:39,080
Speaker 3: all due for some Syria's under regression, and you know, Latsio,

1241
00:56:39,239 --> 00:56:41,320
Speaker 3: I'm fairly convinced will never regress. They're just going to

1242
00:56:41,360 --> 00:56:43,400
Speaker 3: be the greatest finishing team of all time under sorry.

1243
00:56:43,880 --> 00:56:46,160
Speaker 3: But that's not really like a pattern that sorry teams

1244
00:56:46,200 --> 00:56:48,440
Speaker 3: have had in the past, so I don't really understand

1245
00:56:48,440 --> 00:56:50,120
Speaker 3: how they're sustaining this. They do create a lot of

1246
00:56:50,160 --> 00:56:52,560
Speaker 3: big chances, they don't create a ton of shots, but

1247
00:56:52,680 --> 00:56:55,759
Speaker 3: even still, it's just ridiculous at this point, and I'm

1248
00:56:55,800 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 3: taking the under three and if there's an early goal

1249
00:56:58,080 --> 00:56:59,359
Speaker 3: and there's a live three and a half out there,

1250
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:02,000
Speaker 3: I'll probably grab some more in this game, because I

1251
00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:04,600
Speaker 3: do think that so swallow. As much as I like

1252
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:08,680
Speaker 3: their attackers, you know, Skamaka and Raspadori, they have scored

1253
00:57:08,719 --> 00:57:11,120
Speaker 3: ten over they're expected as well. So two teams were

1254
00:57:11,160 --> 00:57:13,439
Speaker 3: just running hot and I'm bent on them to cool

1255
00:57:13,440 --> 00:57:15,680
Speaker 3: off a little bit here when they meet. Usually likes

1256
00:57:15,719 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 3: to be a good under and then hopefully it doesn't

1257
00:57:17,720 --> 00:57:18,360
Speaker 3: get too chaotic.

1258
00:57:18,640 --> 00:57:20,760
Speaker 2: All right, Let's move to Spain now. In La Liga.

1259
00:57:21,200 --> 00:57:23,680
Speaker 2: I like Athletic Club Billbao. No surprise there, miight just

1260
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:26,760
Speaker 2: one and a half plus one fifty against Elcha. This

1261
00:57:26,880 --> 00:57:30,880
Speaker 2: is Sunday eight am kickoff. Elcha they're nineteenth in non

1262
00:57:30,960 --> 00:57:34,440
Speaker 2: penalty expected goals for per ninety, eighteenth and shots per

1263
00:57:34,560 --> 00:57:39,960
Speaker 2: ninety and nineteenth in big chances and sixteenth in box centuries. Meanwhile,

1264
00:57:40,040 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 2: Athletic Club they're top six in all of those metrics.

1265
00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:45,320
Speaker 2: So at home, I like athletic clubs chances to get

1266
00:57:45,400 --> 00:57:47,920
Speaker 2: margin here win by multiple cloths. So I'll gladly take

1267
00:57:47,960 --> 00:57:51,080
Speaker 2: plus one fifty on our boys from the best country.

1268
00:57:51,400 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 2: Athletic Club Bill Bao, Anthony, and what do you have

1269
00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 2: for LaLiga?

1270
00:57:55,600 --> 00:57:58,360
Speaker 3: I already mentioned I have the Barcelona parlay with Tottenham.

1271
00:57:59,040 --> 00:58:03,080
Speaker 3: I'm grabbing some so a plus a half again another

1272
00:58:03,360 --> 00:58:08,440
Speaker 3: reale bettis fade. This team continues to just keep not scoring.

1273
00:58:08,480 --> 00:58:10,439
Speaker 3: They've cooled off considerably in the last month.

1274
00:58:10,680 --> 00:58:11,720
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna keep riding it.

1275
00:58:11,960 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 2: Then.

1276
00:58:12,080 --> 00:58:13,640
Speaker 3: Now they're playing one of the best defenses in all

1277
00:58:13,680 --> 00:58:16,000
Speaker 3: of Spain and Osasuna who is top six, and a

1278
00:58:16,040 --> 00:58:17,960
Speaker 3: lot of defensive metrics when you look across the board

1279
00:58:17,960 --> 00:58:20,080
Speaker 3: in terms of expected goals allowed, I think this is

1280
00:58:20,120 --> 00:58:22,960
Speaker 3: going to be a very low event game and I'm

1281
00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:25,120
Speaker 3: going to take the dog in what project is closer

1282
00:58:25,120 --> 00:58:25,760
Speaker 3: to a toss up?

1283
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:28,760
Speaker 2: Bj Do you have anything for us in La Liga?

1284
00:58:29,320 --> 00:58:32,680
Speaker 1: Absolutely? Michael Granada Reo Viacano over two and a half

1285
00:58:32,720 --> 00:58:36,200
Speaker 1: goals at plus one twenty five Granana. Somehow, their matches

1286
00:58:36,240 --> 00:58:39,040
Speaker 1: have been coming quite chaotic lately. I mean three to

1287
00:58:39,080 --> 00:58:42,240
Speaker 1: two win over Alaves before the international break where fourks

1288
00:58:42,320 --> 00:58:44,960
Speaker 1: total expected goals are created between the two sides. That

1289
00:58:45,160 --> 00:58:47,480
Speaker 1: is now six of their last eight matches where at

1290
00:58:47,560 --> 00:58:49,680
Speaker 1: least two and a half expected goals were created and

1291
00:58:49,760 --> 00:58:52,160
Speaker 1: a lot of that has to do with just how

1292
00:58:52,240 --> 00:58:54,400
Speaker 1: bad Granada's defense has been all season long. I mean,

1293
00:58:54,400 --> 00:58:56,919
Speaker 1: they're dead last in La Liga in pretty much every

1294
00:58:57,000 --> 00:59:00,720
Speaker 1: single metric, including crosses completed in their on penalty area,

1295
00:59:00,760 --> 00:59:04,280
Speaker 1: which is huge in this matchup because Ryo Viacano's four

1296
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:06,920
Speaker 1: two three one system is very reliant on creating a

1297
00:59:06,920 --> 00:59:08,840
Speaker 1: lot of their chances down the flanks, so they have

1298
00:59:08,960 --> 00:59:12,520
Speaker 1: the third lowest percentage returns their attacks coming through the

1299
00:59:12,520 --> 00:59:15,280
Speaker 1: middle of the pitch, and it shows because they have

1300
00:59:15,400 --> 00:59:18,200
Speaker 1: the second most completed crosses into the opponent's penaly area

1301
00:59:18,240 --> 00:59:21,560
Speaker 1: per ninety minutes. And Granada is also dead last in

1302
00:59:21,680 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 1: La Liga at aerial dual win percentage, So I think

1303
00:59:25,920 --> 00:59:27,920
Speaker 1: you can definitely see Viacano on getting maybe one or

1304
00:59:27,920 --> 00:59:31,240
Speaker 1: two goals off of crosses, corners, or maybe even a

1305
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:34,120
Speaker 1: header on the flip side. You know, Grana has found

1306
00:59:34,160 --> 00:59:36,200
Speaker 1: some life in their offense eight point four expected goals

1307
00:59:36,240 --> 00:59:40,040
Speaker 1: in their last five matches. Viocano has somewhat fallen off

1308
00:59:40,080 --> 00:59:42,920
Speaker 1: a cliff defensively, which we could see coming because the

1309
00:59:42,960 --> 00:59:45,360
Speaker 1: first half of the season they were drastically overperforming their

1310
00:59:45,400 --> 00:59:48,640
Speaker 1: expected goals numbers defensively. Since the calendar turned to twenty

1311
00:59:48,720 --> 00:59:52,120
Speaker 1: twenty two, Ryo Viacona has not kept a clean sheet

1312
00:59:52,320 --> 00:59:54,200
Speaker 1: in a lot of legal match So with a price

1313
00:59:54,240 --> 00:59:56,000
Speaker 1: of plus one twenty five and over two and half goals,

1314
00:59:56,000 --> 00:59:58,680
Speaker 1: i've round two point four goals projected, so I think

1315
00:59:58,680 --> 01:00:01,240
Speaker 1: there's some decent value on the over between these two teams.

1316
01:00:01,720 --> 01:00:04,200
Speaker 2: All right, we'll move on to the league. Ooh, Anthony,

1317
01:00:04,240 --> 01:00:05,360
Speaker 2: you have to play for us in France.

1318
01:00:05,600 --> 01:00:07,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, a rare one for me. It was funny.

1319
01:00:07,040 --> 01:00:09,200
Speaker 3: Beij and I were on a zoom earlier this week

1320
01:00:09,360 --> 01:00:11,240
Speaker 3: and I just cooke a quick glance at the schedule

1321
01:00:11,280 --> 01:00:13,560
Speaker 3: and I said, oh, sen Atienna is hosting Marseille this week.

1322
01:00:13,920 --> 01:00:17,360
Speaker 4: We're betting, said Antienne. The boys have played a lot better.

1323
01:00:17,880 --> 01:00:19,760
Speaker 3: And I know I said they weren't going to get relegated,

1324
01:00:19,800 --> 01:00:22,360
Speaker 3: and I still believe that they are up to eighteenth

1325
01:00:22,400 --> 01:00:25,440
Speaker 3: in the table now. BJ, I don't know how you

1326
01:00:25,480 --> 01:00:28,160
Speaker 3: feel about this, but it looks like they're going to survive.

1327
01:00:28,800 --> 01:00:32,360
Speaker 3: We'll see the expected goals numbers have improved recently, They've

1328
01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:34,920
Speaker 3: played considerably better and now they're getting one of the

1329
01:00:35,000 --> 01:00:38,720
Speaker 3: more overrated teams in France. I've come around a bit

1330
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:41,800
Speaker 3: on my position preseason that Marseille was going to be improved,

1331
01:00:41,840 --> 01:00:44,360
Speaker 3: and they are better than last year, but not by

1332
01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:47,000
Speaker 3: a ton and they're still overperforming. And granted they're a

1333
01:00:47,040 --> 01:00:49,720
Speaker 3: team who generally will overperform, but we've seen the Senate

1334
01:00:49,760 --> 01:00:50,280
Speaker 3: Tien team.

1335
01:00:50,600 --> 01:00:52,120
Speaker 4: You know, they get a draw with Lele.

1336
01:00:52,320 --> 01:00:55,720
Speaker 3: They were pretty competitive with PSG and then beat Mets

1337
01:00:55,760 --> 01:00:58,520
Speaker 3: at home. So they've been much better in the last

1338
01:00:58,600 --> 01:01:01,000
Speaker 3: month and I'm expecting them to continue that form as

1339
01:01:01,080 --> 01:01:03,920
Speaker 3: they ride out of relegation. I took them plus a

1340
01:01:03,920 --> 01:01:05,160
Speaker 3: half minus one twenty.

1341
01:01:05,280 --> 01:01:09,000
Speaker 2: And BJA as usual, you have something for us in legal.

1342
01:01:08,880 --> 01:01:11,240
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I mean well, well, first of all, to

1343
01:01:11,320 --> 01:01:14,800
Speaker 1: answer Anthony's question, Mets and Bordeaux are going down. I

1344
01:01:14,880 --> 01:01:16,920
Speaker 1: think it's pretty clear at this point, and you know,

1345
01:01:17,000 --> 01:01:19,280
Speaker 1: san Antia might be in that relegation playoff, which should

1346
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:19,480
Speaker 1: be fun.

1347
01:01:19,560 --> 01:01:20,520
Speaker 3: But no, I love.

1348
01:01:21,960 --> 01:01:25,959
Speaker 1: A snoozer troy A. Since Dodd de Reims, both teams

1349
01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:29,720
Speaker 1: have scored no at minus one forty. Troyce is still

1350
01:01:29,760 --> 01:01:32,360
Speaker 1: fighting off relegation. Reams is pretty comfortably in the middle

1351
01:01:32,360 --> 01:01:34,080
Speaker 1: of the table and can really just coast out for

1352
01:01:34,120 --> 01:01:36,400
Speaker 1: the rest of the season. But these are two of

1353
01:01:36,440 --> 01:01:38,560
Speaker 1: the three worst offenses in France. I mean both of

1354
01:01:38,560 --> 01:01:40,840
Speaker 1: them are averaging under one expected goal per match. I

1355
01:01:40,920 --> 01:01:44,160
Speaker 1: mean there hasn't been There's only been eight matches for

1356
01:01:44,280 --> 01:01:46,760
Speaker 1: Reams and ten for Troyes where both teams have created

1357
01:01:47,080 --> 01:01:49,560
Speaker 1: over at least one expected goal, and we're talking about

1358
01:01:49,560 --> 01:01:52,360
Speaker 1: twenty nine matches into the season. They are Also, these

1359
01:01:52,400 --> 01:01:55,160
Speaker 1: are two teams that provide the least resistance of anybody

1360
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:57,000
Speaker 1: in League UN. I mean they're both their nineteenth and

1361
01:01:57,040 --> 01:01:59,600
Speaker 1: twentieth and past per defensive action. In fact, Troyce is

1362
01:01:59,680 --> 01:02:02,320
Speaker 1: deadline in France in high turnovers and shots create off

1363
01:02:02,320 --> 01:02:05,000
Speaker 1: those high turnaments, which is great news for Rems, who

1364
01:02:05,080 --> 01:02:08,200
Speaker 1: really struggles playing through pressure. The first time these two

1365
01:02:08,200 --> 01:02:11,800
Speaker 1: teams met, only one point four total expected goals were created.

1366
01:02:12,360 --> 01:02:15,800
Speaker 1: Reems had maybe the most efficient attacking output I've seen

1367
01:02:15,840 --> 01:02:18,640
Speaker 1: an Elite on match. They had point seven expected goals

1368
01:02:18,640 --> 01:02:21,240
Speaker 1: off of eighteen shots and thirty one shot greating actions,

1369
01:02:22,160 --> 01:02:24,360
Speaker 1: Troyce has just had a lot of really bad penalty

1370
01:02:24,400 --> 01:02:27,120
Speaker 1: lock this season. Only twenty six goals allowed from open play,

1371
01:02:27,160 --> 01:02:30,560
Speaker 1: but they've conceded eight penalties, which is the most in France. Additionally,

1372
01:02:30,640 --> 01:02:35,360
Speaker 1: Reems their best striker, Hugo Ektke, who has scored nine

1373
01:02:35,400 --> 01:02:37,560
Speaker 1: of their thirty eight goals and has a point six

1374
01:02:37,560 --> 01:02:39,880
Speaker 1: to one xgper ninety minute scoring race. Coming off a

1375
01:02:39,960 --> 01:02:41,840
Speaker 1: month long thigh injury, it looks like I'll be back

1376
01:02:41,840 --> 01:02:43,600
Speaker 1: to this match, but my guess is he won't be

1377
01:02:43,640 --> 01:02:45,200
Speaker 1: one hundred percent, so I have both team to score

1378
01:02:45,240 --> 01:02:49,000
Speaker 1: no projective minus one seventy zero zero draws also seven

1379
01:02:49,000 --> 01:02:51,240
Speaker 1: to one. Don't hate that price either, so I think

1380
01:02:51,240 --> 01:02:53,320
Speaker 1: we're just gonna This is one of those matches that

1381
01:02:53,440 --> 01:02:56,320
Speaker 1: you just turn on the notifications for at nine am

1382
01:02:56,440 --> 01:02:58,920
Speaker 1: on Sunday morning and hope you don't get a notification

1383
01:02:59,000 --> 01:02:59,920
Speaker 1: until the final whistle.

1384
01:03:00,120 --> 01:03:03,080
Speaker 2: That sounds wonderful. And on that note, let's move on

1385
01:03:03,200 --> 01:03:06,919
Speaker 2: to our favorite underdogs for the weekend. Anthony. Ye're coming

1386
01:03:06,960 --> 01:03:08,800
Speaker 2: in with a big price, so we'll start with you.

1387
01:03:09,080 --> 01:03:11,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, pressure does funny things to team sometimes, And all

1388
01:03:12,000 --> 01:03:14,760
Speaker 3: of a sudden, ac Milan is kind of the title

1389
01:03:14,840 --> 01:03:17,520
Speaker 3: favorite in Italy. I mean, they've got a three point

1390
01:03:17,640 --> 01:03:20,400
Speaker 3: lead if you give into the game in hand, and

1391
01:03:20,880 --> 01:03:23,200
Speaker 3: they are now in the driver's seat for sure for

1392
01:03:23,280 --> 01:03:27,240
Speaker 3: this league title as intercontinue to drop points stunningly. And

1393
01:03:27,400 --> 01:03:30,800
Speaker 3: now I'm grabbing some bologna because I still think this

1394
01:03:30,880 --> 01:03:34,240
Speaker 3: team is very overrated. They have run way too hot.

1395
01:03:34,280 --> 01:03:37,040
Speaker 3: They've won their last three games one nil each despite

1396
01:03:37,400 --> 01:03:39,520
Speaker 3: not really playing that well in any of them against

1397
01:03:39,560 --> 01:03:43,960
Speaker 3: pretty mediocrepposition except for Napoli. So I think Bologna they

1398
01:03:44,080 --> 01:03:46,360
Speaker 3: defend pretty well. They can turn this into a game

1399
01:03:46,480 --> 01:03:49,480
Speaker 3: that's pretty much toss up. I agree with BJ's under

1400
01:03:49,560 --> 01:03:52,280
Speaker 3: as well, and so that's for that reason. At seven

1401
01:03:52,360 --> 01:03:54,760
Speaker 3: to one, I show value on them down to six

1402
01:03:54,840 --> 01:03:56,960
Speaker 3: to one, so I'm happy to take seven to one

1403
01:03:57,000 --> 01:03:59,720
Speaker 3: here on Bologna, who I think is live to win.

1404
01:04:00,200 --> 01:04:01,040
Speaker 1: All right, I'll go next.

1405
01:04:01,120 --> 01:04:03,320
Speaker 2: I like Crystal Palace there plus two to ninety on

1406
01:04:03,440 --> 01:04:09,240
Speaker 2: Monday afternoon hosting Arsenal. Palace's defense is fantastic. Their fifth

1407
01:04:09,320 --> 01:04:12,400
Speaker 2: in non penalty expected goals against six and shots allowed

1408
01:04:12,440 --> 01:04:15,800
Speaker 2: for ninety minutes fourth and big chances allowed, and we've

1409
01:04:15,800 --> 01:04:19,600
Speaker 2: spoke about this ad nauseum this season. Their expected goals

1410
01:04:19,760 --> 01:04:22,480
Speaker 2: numbers at home are terrific four to seven and four

1411
01:04:22,560 --> 01:04:25,280
Speaker 2: windraw loss record, but they have the fourth best expected

1412
01:04:25,360 --> 01:04:27,880
Speaker 2: points in terms of home form in the Premier League

1413
01:04:27,880 --> 01:04:30,240
Speaker 2: this season. Arsenal, on the other hand, a minus four

1414
01:04:30,280 --> 01:04:32,960
Speaker 2: point five to two expected gold differential away from home,

1415
01:04:33,040 --> 01:04:35,720
Speaker 2: So I think all these are good ingredients for a

1416
01:04:36,160 --> 01:04:40,200
Speaker 2: recipe for an upset at Salhurst Park. Patriviira's Crystal Palace

1417
01:04:40,200 --> 01:04:43,080
Speaker 2: plus two ninety for me, bj eure up.

1418
01:04:43,320 --> 01:04:46,480
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well is sitting at plus two hundred at home

1419
01:04:46,520 --> 01:04:48,280
Speaker 1: against Aston Villa, which I think is kind of a

1420
01:04:48,360 --> 01:04:50,440
Speaker 1: crazy price. I know we've talked about how they've over

1421
01:04:50,600 --> 01:04:54,840
Speaker 1: performed all season long, but given the tactical setup at Bruno,

1422
01:04:54,960 --> 01:04:58,280
Speaker 1: Laje has just very conservative, very pragmatic going forward. I

1423
01:04:58,360 --> 01:05:02,080
Speaker 1: think it lends itself to Wolves are reforming defensively, which

1424
01:05:02,120 --> 01:05:03,880
Speaker 1: is what we've kind of saw. But just from a

1425
01:05:03,920 --> 01:05:06,320
Speaker 1: pure market perspective, I think you look at any model

1426
01:05:06,360 --> 01:05:08,680
Speaker 1: from five point thirty eight to info goal, I think

1427
01:05:08,680 --> 01:05:11,960
Speaker 1: everybody's gonna have Wolves as a slightly projected favorite. I

1428
01:05:12,040 --> 01:05:16,920
Speaker 1: understand that they're without Ralpholmenez and Rubin Neves, but you

1429
01:05:17,000 --> 01:05:18,960
Speaker 1: know the thing about Wolves is that they have a

1430
01:05:19,040 --> 01:05:21,560
Speaker 1: lot of attacking talent. They can put Trinkau and He

1431
01:05:21,680 --> 01:05:24,360
Speaker 1: Chang Wang is back from injury. So I think this

1432
01:05:24,480 --> 01:05:26,920
Speaker 1: price is a little crazy on Wolves. So I like

1433
01:05:26,960 --> 01:05:28,760
Speaker 1: them at two to one to get all three points

1434
01:05:28,760 --> 01:05:29,600
Speaker 1: against Aston Villain.

1435
01:05:29,680 --> 01:05:31,920
Speaker 2: All right, and if you wrap those three teams together

1436
01:05:32,080 --> 01:05:35,760
Speaker 2: in a moneyline parlay. That's Bologna Crystal Palace in Wolverhampton

1437
01:05:35,920 --> 01:05:39,200
Speaker 2: ninety three to one, so that should definitely come in.

1438
01:05:39,320 --> 01:05:42,600
Speaker 2: It feels good. Let's move on to our favorite bets

1439
01:05:42,720 --> 01:05:46,040
Speaker 2: for this week in the Premier League BJ Let's go

1440
01:05:46,200 --> 01:05:46,680
Speaker 2: right back to you.

1441
01:05:46,880 --> 01:05:50,000
Speaker 1: Yeah. Lester Manchester United both teams to score at minus

1442
01:05:50,120 --> 01:05:53,800
Speaker 1: one fifty. I'm expecting chaos because these two teams are

1443
01:05:53,880 --> 01:05:56,160
Speaker 1: two of the worst defenses in the Premier League, but

1444
01:05:56,280 --> 01:05:58,600
Speaker 1: their offenses have been performing well enough to keep them

1445
01:05:58,720 --> 01:06:01,440
Speaker 1: up within the ten of the table. Obviously, Manchester United

1446
01:06:01,480 --> 01:06:04,720
Speaker 1: sitting in fifth place. United's offense though, since Jayden Sancho

1447
01:06:04,840 --> 01:06:07,920
Speaker 1: and Paul pogbubn healthy sixteen point six expected goals in

1448
01:06:07,920 --> 01:06:10,400
Speaker 1: their last seven matches, Lester third to last and nearly

1449
01:06:10,520 --> 01:06:14,080
Speaker 1: one point seven expected goals allowed per match. It's quite

1450
01:06:14,160 --> 01:06:16,080
Speaker 1: crazy that Lester is sitting at tenth in the table

1451
01:06:16,120 --> 01:06:18,400
Speaker 1: given how bad their defense has been. But the offense

1452
01:06:18,520 --> 01:06:21,160
Speaker 1: just shows you how good their offense can be. I mean,

1453
01:06:21,560 --> 01:06:24,760
Speaker 1: they've scored at least one goal in twenty two of

1454
01:06:24,880 --> 01:06:27,920
Speaker 1: their twenty seven Premier League matches this season. Additionally, these

1455
01:06:27,920 --> 01:06:30,640
Speaker 1: are two of the worst teams in terms of defending

1456
01:06:30,720 --> 01:06:33,880
Speaker 1: set pieces Leicester thirteen point two expected goals loud of

1457
01:06:33,960 --> 01:06:37,400
Speaker 1: set pieces, Man United ten point five. So I'm expecting chaos,

1458
01:06:37,440 --> 01:06:39,400
Speaker 1: which is what we saw in the first meeting between

1459
01:06:39,400 --> 01:06:42,000
Speaker 1: these two teams Leicester one four to two. There was

1460
01:06:42,200 --> 01:06:45,000
Speaker 1: forty shots, fifty eight shot crating actions, just absolute chaos

1461
01:06:45,080 --> 01:06:47,440
Speaker 1: and that's how I'm expecting at Old Traffords. So both

1462
01:06:47,480 --> 01:06:49,240
Speaker 1: team to score at minus one fifty.

1463
01:06:49,560 --> 01:06:51,800
Speaker 2: My favorite bet in the Premier League this weekend is

1464
01:06:51,880 --> 01:06:54,360
Speaker 2: Everden west Ham over two and a half goals at

1465
01:06:54,440 --> 01:06:57,840
Speaker 2: minus one ten. Everdence defense remains a mess. It is

1466
01:06:57,960 --> 01:07:00,640
Speaker 2: their Achilles heel. They actually have many Heillies heels, but

1467
01:07:00,680 --> 01:07:03,080
Speaker 2: it's one of them, probably the worst one. Over the

1468
01:07:03,240 --> 01:07:06,560
Speaker 2: last five away matches, the Tapees have shipped sixteen goals

1469
01:07:07,200 --> 01:07:09,640
Speaker 2: and on the season they're allowing one point seven expected

1470
01:07:09,680 --> 01:07:13,320
Speaker 2: goals against on average and away matches. Enter west Ham

1471
01:07:13,400 --> 01:07:15,520
Speaker 2: a team that plays pretty high events soccer. They have

1472
01:07:15,640 --> 01:07:18,640
Speaker 2: fifteen point four total expected goals over their last five matches,

1473
01:07:19,080 --> 01:07:21,120
Speaker 2: so they should have no issues scoring. They should do

1474
01:07:21,200 --> 01:07:23,280
Speaker 2: the most of the hard work in getting to this

1475
01:07:23,400 --> 01:07:26,040
Speaker 2: over But I also like everatge chances to score against

1476
01:07:26,360 --> 01:07:28,439
Speaker 2: a west Ham defense that has not been in great

1477
01:07:28,520 --> 01:07:30,440
Speaker 2: form of late. So I think over two and a

1478
01:07:30,480 --> 01:07:32,480
Speaker 2: half at minus one ten is way too cheap. Give

1479
01:07:32,520 --> 01:07:34,320
Speaker 2: me that, and I wouldn't hate an over three either.

1480
01:07:34,400 --> 01:07:37,520
Speaker 2: Plus one seventy Anthony, what do you have for us

1481
01:07:37,560 --> 01:07:38,040
Speaker 2: this weekend?

1482
01:07:38,440 --> 01:07:41,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm taking Crystal Palace plus a half at minus

1483
01:07:41,040 --> 01:07:44,000
Speaker 3: one point fifteen. Looking at the fixture list, I'm probably

1484
01:07:44,000 --> 01:07:45,480
Speaker 3: going to be fading Arsenal a good amount in the

1485
01:07:45,520 --> 01:07:46,280
Speaker 3: next few weeks.

1486
01:07:46,680 --> 01:07:48,880
Speaker 4: And the reality is their offense is run a bit

1487
01:07:48,960 --> 01:07:49,520
Speaker 4: hot lately.

1488
01:07:50,000 --> 01:07:54,200
Speaker 3: mL Smith throw and Pakayosaka eighteen goals from eleven combined

1489
01:07:54,320 --> 01:07:57,280
Speaker 3: expected goals, and defensively as well. I mean, this team

1490
01:07:57,320 --> 01:08:00,200
Speaker 3: has only conceded thirty one goals from about two twenty

1491
01:08:00,240 --> 01:08:02,920
Speaker 3: seven post shot expected goals, but their actual XG is

1492
01:08:02,960 --> 01:08:05,520
Speaker 3: considerably higher than that, So they've been running a bit

1493
01:08:05,960 --> 01:08:09,040
Speaker 3: well defensively, and Palace has no problem playing out from

1494
01:08:09,080 --> 01:08:12,920
Speaker 3: the back dealing with Arsenal's ability to get high turnovers

1495
01:08:12,960 --> 01:08:15,480
Speaker 3: and turn those into chances. Guys like Mark Gahee and

1496
01:08:15,560 --> 01:08:18,560
Speaker 3: Connor Gallagher are excellent kind of showing up in the

1497
01:08:18,640 --> 01:08:20,960
Speaker 3: right spaces, whether it's ball carrying as a center back

1498
01:08:21,200 --> 01:08:22,920
Speaker 3: or whether it's Gallagher popping up on the edge of

1499
01:08:22,960 --> 01:08:25,240
Speaker 3: the box for chances, and they're well suited to play

1500
01:08:25,280 --> 01:08:25,719
Speaker 3: on the counter.

1501
01:08:26,040 --> 01:08:26,960
Speaker 4: We saw the first time.

1502
01:08:26,840 --> 01:08:29,960
Speaker 3: These two teams played Palace pretty much were out of

1503
01:08:29,960 --> 01:08:31,920
Speaker 3: possession most of the game, but created the better of

1504
01:08:31,960 --> 01:08:34,439
Speaker 3: the chances until the final ten minutes and then Arsenal

1505
01:08:34,520 --> 01:08:37,559
Speaker 3: found a late equalizer. Overall, I think these two teams

1506
01:08:37,600 --> 01:08:39,920
Speaker 3: are a little closer than the market suggests, and thus

1507
01:08:39,960 --> 01:08:42,120
Speaker 3: we'm going to take Palace plus a half at minus

1508
01:08:42,160 --> 01:08:42,679
Speaker 3: one fifteen.

1509
01:08:42,840 --> 01:08:46,040
Speaker 2: All right, and that wraps up a super sized episode

1510
01:08:46,040 --> 01:08:48,080
Speaker 2: of Wonder Goal. We will be back with you on

1511
01:08:48,720 --> 01:08:51,880
Speaker 2: Monday morning to preview some Premier League and Champions League

1512
01:08:51,920 --> 01:08:55,040
Speaker 2: midweek fixtures. Until then, best of work with all your

1513
01:08:55,080 --> 01:09:04,280
Speaker 2: footy bets. Nice flat sandars purposed Flat sand purposed in

1514
01:09:04,479 --> 01:09:06,480
Speaker 2: the flas sound of Vershire.