WEBVTT - US Inflation Broadly Slows, Erasing Bets on More Fed Rate Hikes 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:02.360 Hey, it's Carol and Tim and we have something new 0:00:02.360 --> 0:00:03.160 and exciting for you. 0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:06.680 Everything you love about Bloomberg Radio is now in your car. 0:00:06.880 --> 0:00:10.160 The new Bloomberg Business App now featuring Apple CarPlay and 0:00:10.160 --> 0:00:10.800 Android Auto. 0:00:10.920 --> 0:00:14.400 Listen to your favorite Bloomberg Radio stations anytime. 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:17.280 Plus every Bloomberg podcast, the latest news, and more, all 0:00:17.320 --> 0:00:18.360 at the click of a button. 0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:21.560 It's free and simple to use. Just download the Bloomberg 0:00:21.600 --> 0:00:24.079 Business App on your smartphone and connect your phone to 0:00:24.160 --> 0:00:24.680 your car. 0:00:24.880 --> 0:00:27.880 The Bloomberg Business App now with Apple CarPlay and Android 0:00:27.920 --> 0:00:30.720 Auto features. Download it free in the Apple App Store 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:31.920 or on Google Play. 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:36.440 Presented by our sponsor, Interactive Brokers, this. 0:00:36.840 --> 0:00:41.120 Is Bloomberg BusinessWeek inside from the reporters and editors who 0:00:41.200 --> 0:00:45.239 bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, 0:00:45.280 --> 0:00:49.440 finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with 0:00:49.600 --> 0:00:54.440 Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:56.560 --> 0:01:02.320 At the feeling Baby. 0:01:04.680 --> 0:01:08.479 Great quarter, great quarter, soft landing, soft landing earning season 0:01:08.560 --> 0:01:11.319 is not over yet, That's all I'm gonna say. And listen. 0:01:11.319 --> 0:01:13.319 More than eighty percent of S and P five hundred 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:15.920 companies eighty two percent of S and P five hundred 0:01:15.920 --> 0:01:18.920 copies issued results out of toped analyst earnings expectations by 0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:21.160 an average of stuff. I know, I know they learned. 0:01:21.319 --> 0:01:23.920 Okay, let's talk called managing expectations. 0:01:23.959 --> 0:01:26.839 Like I said, not everybody's running to downgrade stocks to sell. 0:01:27.080 --> 0:01:29.039 Yeah, that's a really good point. Did they used to 0:01:29.040 --> 0:01:29.600 do that? More? 0:01:30.160 --> 0:01:32.039 They never do that until it's like the stock is 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:32.720 down to nothing. 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:34.360 You're like, oh, thanks for the breaking news. 0:01:34.520 --> 0:01:37.720 All right. Having said that, let's talk a little bit 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:40.720 about the soft landing that seems to be happening. Today's 0:01:40.720 --> 0:01:43.000 CPI report showed US inflation, as we just talked about, 0:01:43.000 --> 0:01:46.200 broadly slowing last month. And so despite some bumps in 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:49.320 recent months, inflation team has settled substantially from that forty 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:52.720 year high that was just last year, and it's led 0:01:52.720 --> 0:01:55.280 several FED policy makers to signal that maybe they're done 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:56.200 raising interest rates. 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:58.240 Okay, maybe with us more on the data and the 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:01.920 impact on US yields, which today we got Bloomberg News 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:04.000 economics enter Molly Smith. She's with us in the Bloomberg 0:02:04.040 --> 0:02:06.720 and Active Brokers studio along with Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:10.480 interest rates strategist Ira Jersey, live from BI headquarters in Princeton, 0:02:10.480 --> 0:02:12.000 New Jersey. Molly, I want to start with you and 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:14.760 just get into the nitty gritty here. As Carol mentioned, 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:16.919 everything is awesome at least today. 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:17.280 Yeah. 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:21.480 Great quarter, great quarter, great month. Really October is it though? 0:02:21.880 --> 0:02:24.440 I mean, you've been on team soft Landing for a 0:02:24.480 --> 0:02:24.880 long time. 0:02:24.960 --> 0:02:27.040 I have been. Thank you, Tim, I thank you for 0:02:27.080 --> 0:02:31.440 reminding everybody that I have been. I still am obviously optimistic. 0:02:31.520 --> 0:02:33.679 I think today gave a lot of reasons to still 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:37.520 be optimistic. This was yeah, I think from the FEDS perspective, 0:02:37.600 --> 0:02:40.280 one of the more you know goldilocks reports that you 0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:43.200 could get, you know, it showed the one of the 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:47.000 biggest contributors to inflation in the past few months has 0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:50.200 been that shelter category in rent and some of those 0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:53.920 rent measures stepped down pretty significantly this month, so that 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:58.040 was very welcome to The rents of course, are still rising, 0:02:58.320 --> 0:03:01.000 but not nearly as fast as they have been in recent. 0:03:00.800 --> 0:03:02.600 And that's the point, still going up, but not as 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:03.200 much as they. 0:03:03.120 --> 0:03:05.480 Were right, which is the same with core inflation. But 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:08.520 then you saw overall inflation that's the one that includes 0:03:09.080 --> 0:03:12.240 that those food and gas court categories. That one was 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:15.240 unchanged on the month, and that's because gas prices fell 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:17.600 so much, so we were expecting that. But the read 0:03:17.680 --> 0:03:21.200 on core inflation coming in below expectations. That's what everyone 0:03:21.280 --> 0:03:22.600 is really cheering about right now. 0:03:22.639 --> 0:03:24.520 I want to get to you in terms of that 0:03:24.560 --> 0:03:27.240 two percent rate that's the FED target in a moment. 0:03:27.320 --> 0:03:30.000 But let's bring in Ira Jersey because Ira, we saw, 0:03:30.200 --> 0:03:33.000 you know, certainly an equity rally, but on the bond side, 0:03:33.000 --> 0:03:37.440 the treasury US treasury side, some significant moves all along 0:03:37.480 --> 0:03:39.880 the curve talked us about the trade this morning, this 0:03:39.960 --> 0:03:41.920 morning today specifically. 0:03:42.040 --> 0:03:44.640 Yeah, so it's happened all day. There's been pretty decent 0:03:44.640 --> 0:03:46.680 follow through actually, and if you look at the belly 0:03:46.680 --> 0:03:48.680 of the curve, right the best performing part of the 0:03:48.720 --> 0:03:51.480 treasury market right now is the five year kind of 0:03:51.560 --> 0:03:57.080 area of the curve, and that's that's basically the market saying, Oh, 0:03:57.200 --> 0:03:59.240 this is going to continue. The Fed's going to have 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:02.200 to cut interest rates. So this idea of a goldilocks 0:04:02.200 --> 0:04:03.960 I'm not quite sure that's what the market's telling you. 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:05.840 That's not what the rate market is telling you anyway. 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:08.360 What the rate market is saying is the rate market's 0:04:08.400 --> 0:04:12.200 actually worried that the growth and inflation story is going 0:04:12.240 --> 0:04:15.440 to be so bad next year that the Federal Reserve 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:18.919 is going to be cutting interest rates. So I have 0:04:18.960 --> 0:04:21.080 a different read on what the market's telling us. You know, 0:04:21.080 --> 0:04:25.000 it's extrapolating out I think a little bit too much. So, 0:04:25.400 --> 0:04:26.640 you know, I would take this with a grain of 0:04:26.640 --> 0:04:29.719 salt because it's one day's move. But nonetheless, the market 0:04:29.800 --> 0:04:31.800 certainly seems to think that you're going to get maybe 0:04:31.839 --> 0:04:36.480 a string of better inflation data, but maybe significantly worse 0:04:36.520 --> 0:04:37.440 growth data as well. 0:04:37.640 --> 0:04:40.240 You know, Ira, what's the nuance between in the trade 0:04:40.279 --> 0:04:46.000 between the activity indicating recession versus soft landing? How do 0:04:46.080 --> 0:04:47.039 you figure that out? 0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:50.520 Yeah, well, I think in the market, like what the 0:04:50.560 --> 0:04:53.200 treasury market has had been pricing for a long time 0:04:53.600 --> 0:04:56.159 was basically the Federal Reserve to do nothing with a 0:04:56.400 --> 0:04:59.200 tail risk that they would have to ease interest rates 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:01.240 by the end of next year because you'd wind up 0:05:01.279 --> 0:05:05.160 seeing a recession and slower economic activity. But today they've 0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:08.200 just leaned into that slower economic activity, slower growth the 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:11.279 federers are easing. You know, we went from from pricing 0:05:11.320 --> 0:05:14.000 in under two cuts by the end of next year 0:05:14.040 --> 0:05:16.600 to pricing in almost four cuts, right, So that's a 0:05:16.600 --> 0:05:18.919 pretty significant move, right, fifty bases point move. I mean, 0:05:18.960 --> 0:05:22.120 you just look at where short end futures are pricing, 0:05:22.839 --> 0:05:27.039 and they've moved basically at least one one more cut, 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:30.040 if not more, throughout the course of the year. So 0:05:30.480 --> 0:05:32.359 you know, my base case is the Fed does nothing 0:05:32.400 --> 0:05:34.480 next year. But the market seems to be much more 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:37.160 worried about, you know, softness in the economy. 0:05:37.279 --> 0:05:39.600 So okay, Molly, So that two percent target that Jay 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:42.159 powellin companies say that's what they are shooting for, or 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:44.800 that the trend line is getting there, that would maybe 0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:47.000 give them a reason to pause and just be done 0:05:47.040 --> 0:05:50.600 with this rate hiking cycle. Are we still have a 0:05:50.680 --> 0:05:51.200 ways to go? 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:51.600 Right? 0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:54.360 Yeah? And remember also that two percent target is based 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:56.920 on the other inflation metric that we're getting next week. 0:05:57.000 --> 0:06:00.479 So that's the PCE Inflation Report. That's the one that 0:06:00.520 --> 0:06:02.680 the Fed uses for the target. This one today was 0:06:02.720 --> 0:06:05.599 the CPI. It's a bit more public facing. I think 0:06:06.520 --> 0:06:09.200 some people might say this more is a truer sense 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:13.040 of what consumers actually pay and representative of more their 0:06:13.080 --> 0:06:17.360 actual basket. But I mean, yeah, I think the real 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:20.279 thing that they've been looking for has been a mediation 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:24.200 more in the core metrics of inflation, so stripping out 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:29.120 the volatile food and energy categories, especially core services x housing, 0:06:29.279 --> 0:06:33.039 so getting into where we've seen so much strength in 0:06:33.240 --> 0:06:37.280 especially rents and other services inflation that has been really strong. 0:06:37.440 --> 0:06:40.320 That did step down a bit in today's report, but 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:42.960 like you still are generally getting so much more relief 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:44.799 on the good side, as you guys were just saying 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:48.039 with the luxury watches and other big purchases that people 0:06:48.080 --> 0:06:50.960 are just not buying as much physical stuff. But the 0:06:51.000 --> 0:06:54.279 services side is still where the strength in spending is. 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:56.520 That it's been like that for quite a while. 0:06:56.600 --> 0:06:59.239 Mollie, Yeah, and that I mean that is ultimately reflective 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:01.520 of what our economy is. The US economy is a 0:07:01.560 --> 0:07:05.120 service driven economy that you know, consumers tend to spend 0:07:05.120 --> 0:07:07.200 more of their UH except. 0:07:06.880 --> 0:07:08.440 For during the pandemic when right. 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:11.240 It was long when there were no services to be had, 0:07:11.520 --> 0:07:14.760 right exactly. So now we're shifting back into that kind 0:07:14.800 --> 0:07:17.240 of normalization, and I think, yeah, it's a great point. 0:07:17.280 --> 0:07:20.120 It is sometimes really hard to distinguish from the market 0:07:20.160 --> 0:07:23.320 moves and also from the economic data. What is the 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:27.360 differentiator between recession and soft landing and that's why, you know, 0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:29.520 to IRI's point, you can't read into one month of 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:30.480 this too much. 0:07:30.600 --> 0:07:32.920 Well, that's that's the thing. I would say, a sustained level. 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:35.600 And what I just would say, it's it's I think 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:37.800 people could push back and say, well, it's one maybe 0:07:37.800 --> 0:07:40.200 one month of CPI data, but it's CPI data on 0:07:40.280 --> 0:07:41.960 top of data that we got, you know, starting a 0:07:42.000 --> 0:07:44.280 couple of weeks ago, with the jobs number that came 0:07:44.320 --> 0:07:47.640 in kind of lighter than expected, which gave people the idea, Okay, 0:07:47.640 --> 0:07:49.640 well maybe the labor market's not as hot as people 0:07:49.640 --> 0:07:51.200 thought and kind of set off this rally that we've 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:52.160 seen the last two weeks. 0:07:52.200 --> 0:07:54.480 Ken Griffen of Citadel say that labor hoarding, maybe we're 0:07:54.480 --> 0:07:56.480 starting to see not as much of that which we 0:07:56.520 --> 0:07:58.280 had seen for a long time. I would come back 0:07:58.320 --> 0:08:00.720 in here, though. The bond mark at the US treasury 0:08:00.760 --> 0:08:03.400 market has been very vaultive this year, and so I 0:08:03.440 --> 0:08:06.440 am always hesitant, even when we've got a steep move 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:10.320 on a daylight today, to buy the trend. How about you, 0:08:10.320 --> 0:08:13.119 you know and understand this market. I mean, we could 0:08:13.160 --> 0:08:15.520 get something that's a little hot in terms of the 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:17.480 US economy and go in the other direction. 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:20.040 Yeah, I think a lot of people were leaning a 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:22.320 little bit short. A lot of people were burned. You know, 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:26.680 we had when this past summer, if you recall when 0:08:26.720 --> 0:08:29.200 a lot of people, including myself, were calling for the 0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:32.680 Federal Reserve to have been finished with their interest rate hikes. Usually, 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:35.840 when you when the Fed finishes hikes, you want to 0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:37.880 own duration, you want to own the lung and own 0:08:37.960 --> 0:08:41.360 market risk. And what happened this time was people got burned, 0:08:41.440 --> 0:08:43.880 right because you wound up getting better economic data than 0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:47.280 people thought you had. The September data was pretty strong, 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:50.800 right so, and surprisingly strong, and that's one of the 0:08:50.800 --> 0:08:54.360 big reasons why people reset their expectations for the Fed, 0:08:54.400 --> 0:08:56.520 and you wound up getting that pretty big sell off 0:08:57.040 --> 0:08:59.920 during the months of August and September. And then you know, 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:02.280 so subsequently, like you mentioned, the last two weeks has 0:09:02.320 --> 0:09:04.160 been great for the treasury market, right we hit five 0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:06.440 percent on the tenure yeld and then we've done nothing 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:08.679 but rally for the last forty basis points or so. 0:09:09.360 --> 0:09:11.480 And I think that that is, you know, shows you 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:14.520 how on edge the market is and how confused the 0:09:14.559 --> 0:09:18.480 market is about the future path of the economy because 0:09:19.200 --> 0:09:21.000 you know, I have still had a lot of people 0:09:21.040 --> 0:09:24.000 telling me. Some investors I've spoken to just today, we're 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:26.800 mentioning that they think that inflation next year is going 0:09:26.800 --> 0:09:30.560 to reaccelerate. Meanwhile, you have, you know, the market pricing 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:33.080 for cuts. So so I think if there's any piece 0:09:33.120 --> 0:09:36.920 of data that suggests that, hey, maybe inflation will be reaccelerating, 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:39.120 you can wind up just going right back the other way. 0:09:39.840 --> 0:09:42.160 That's interesting. Hey, Molly, come on back in here. 0:09:42.280 --> 0:09:45.520 Did you want to frightened the thought of inflation reaccelerating? 0:09:45.760 --> 0:09:46.720 You'll keep you busy. 0:09:46.880 --> 0:09:49.400 I mean, I guess I could see the thing. And 0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:52.360 maybe I'm a little partial here. I'm in a somewhat 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:55.400 of a home buying journey myself and thinking about, Okay, 0:09:55.400 --> 0:09:59.480 what's the reason that like housing prices could reaccelerate, and thinking, okay, 0:09:59.480 --> 0:10:02.120 if you start to get mortgage rates coming down, which 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:03.800 it seems like we are at our near the peak 0:10:03.920 --> 0:10:06.480 that at least in the New York City market. Because 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:08.640 you can't talk about housing really is a national market, 0:10:08.679 --> 0:10:10.720 it doesn't exist that there does seem to be a 0:10:10.720 --> 0:10:13.280 lot of demand here, and that when there would be 0:10:13.320 --> 0:10:15.839 more supply coming on if people start to move when 0:10:15.920 --> 0:10:18.280 rates come down. It seems like there would be a 0:10:18.280 --> 0:10:20.720 lot of demand to meet that extra supply, in which 0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:23.320 case prices could come back up. So I could see 0:10:23.320 --> 0:10:26.720 that in a housing sense, in the sense that like 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:30.280 inflation could accelerate more in that sector. It's tough for 0:10:30.280 --> 0:10:32.760 me to see right now where the opportunities are for 0:10:32.800 --> 0:10:36.040 inflation elsewhere to re accelerate. I'm not saying it's not possible, 0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:37.800 but that's the most obvious one to meet that comes 0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:38.160 to mind. 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:39.680 The house and one because it's just kind of so tight. 0:10:39.840 --> 0:10:42.280 It's interesting. Ken Griffin said he expects a US recession 0:10:42.280 --> 0:10:43.560 in the second quarter of next year. 0:10:43.960 --> 0:10:46.400 Scary. He also thinks, so that work from home is 0:10:46.400 --> 0:10:49.199 going to make it easier to fire people, So I mean, 0:10:49.240 --> 0:10:51.800 maybe that'll get the rise in unemployment that the FED 0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:52.400 is looking for. 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:54.960 We're all just saying, we're all here today. 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:58.679 Remember how was that? Happy Monday? Today? Ready? Great quarter 0:10:59.120 --> 0:11:03.439 month in the studio? It is. It is really really tricky. 0:11:03.480 --> 0:11:05.439 What's the next economic report on your radar? Really quick? 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:07.640 Retail sales tomorrow retail See how well that. 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:11.079 Does your consumer? Yeah? Right, well, all right, always love 0:11:11.120 --> 0:11:13.760 love love Molly Smith Economics cedit at Bloomberg News right 0:11:13.760 --> 0:11:16.400 here in our studio, Irid Jerseyer thanks to him as well, 0:11:16.800 --> 0:11:19.960 Chief US Interest Rate Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence. It's amazing 0:11:20.000 --> 0:11:22.319 how expectations of what the FED is doing are moving 0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:26.040 so quickly in reaction to all of this. This is Bloomberg. 0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:30.200 If you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, catch 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:33.640 us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:37.160 on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:40.000 Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:11:41.000 --> 0:11:43.480 Cherl, think about some of these skills that you need 0:11:43.520 --> 0:11:45.520 to be a good poker player. Yeah, are you thinking? 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:45.840 Yeah? 0:11:45.920 --> 0:11:48.920 Okay, Patience, discipline, discipline. 0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:52.800 Ability to read people, confidence yep, understanding odds yep, or 0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:54.920 odd people no understanding odds. 0:11:54.600 --> 0:11:55.760 Maybe hot people too. 0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:58.640 Taking measured risk. And then I think this is a 0:11:58.640 --> 0:11:59.760 big one. Knowing when to quit. 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:02.720 Yeah, so no question. I think that some of those things, 0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:04.360 or maybe all of them, what you need to be 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:06.760 a good poker player also translates to other areas of life, 0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:09.199 whether we're talking, you know, in the workplace or out 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:09.720 of the workplace. 0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:12.000 I love this kind of way of thinking. Aaron Laden 0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:14.079 is on a mission to use poker to teach life 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:16.800 skills to women. She's the president of Poker Power. It's 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:20.480 an organization that provides poker workshops to businesses also individuals 0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:25.439 to in poker Powers words quote, teach women critical leadership 0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:28.680 skills so they can turn any situation to their next 0:12:28.679 --> 0:12:31.320 big win. She is joining us, Aaron that is on 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:34.160 zoom from Chicago. Erin Welcome. Nice to have you here 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:34.920 with Tim and myself. 0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:38.520 How are you, I'm great, lovely to be here. 0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:40.040 Well, it's lovely to have you here. Tell us a 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:43.280 little bit more about what you are doing and how 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:46.520 you can take what you've learned in terms of playing 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:50.000 poker and to really make it apply to women making 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:52.880 some really serious advancements in the workplace. 0:12:54.480 --> 0:12:57.559 Yeah. Actually, the skills that you started with are exactly 0:12:57.679 --> 0:13:00.280 what we teach with Poker Power, and we have figured 0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:03.640 out a way to gamify leadership skills through the game 0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:06.160 of poker. And so it has nothing to do with 0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:08.280 the wanting to get you into the casino or even 0:13:08.280 --> 0:13:10.360 into that you know, basement home game where it's all 0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:14.880 smoky and gross, But it's all about getting women how 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.720 to think like a winning poker player, and so that's 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:23.240 taking risk, it's allocating capital, it's strategizing and problem solving 0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:24.520 using the skills of Texas. 0:13:24.600 --> 0:13:28.079 Hold them, Eric, take a step back your own experience 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:30.920 playing poker and how it kind of got you to 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:32.760 this point. Yeah. 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:35.760 So I was not a poker player when I agreed 0:13:35.800 --> 0:13:38.680 to run this company, and that's an important part of 0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:42.000 the story. I was surrounded by poker when I was 0:13:42.040 --> 0:13:44.280 on Wall Street. I was at JP Morgan, and there 0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:46.800 was always a poker game going on, and I never 0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:49.480 had the confidence or the courage to ask if I 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:52.600 could learn, and I certainly was something invited. And so 0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:56.160 my image of this game was quite negative. And that's 0:13:56.240 --> 0:13:59.720 just what I was familiar with. Fast forward twenty years, 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:03.679 and what I have come to realize about Hooker is 0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:06.360 it is the secret. Sauce and I have been talking 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:09.679 about equal pay for almost twenty years and trying to 0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:14.040 inspire women to live life differently through thinking differently and 0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:17.319 strategizing different really, but I hadn't really had a solution 0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:20.360 that could be tactical that women could employ on their 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:23.120 own to exhance their own careers and certainly go for 0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:26.680 equal pay. Poker is that skill. And the reason that 0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:29.320 I say that is when you are playing this game 0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:32.440 you want it's communal, it's social, so it's fun and 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:34.280 that's a good thing that gets people to come back 0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:37.280 to it. But two, it's a place to practice. And 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:39.960 I think that's what's been missing, is that in order 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:43.400 to negotiate well, in order to seek that promotion, you 0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:46.320 have to practice the courage and the confidence and the 0:14:46.360 --> 0:14:50.440 confidence and poker game after game gives you that opportunity. 0:14:50.600 --> 0:14:55.000 But do you have data that show that it's actually 0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:58.520 working for the groups and the individuals you work with. 0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:01.640 Yeah, we have tens of thousands of women over the 0:15:01.760 --> 0:15:04.000 last three years who have gone through our programs, which 0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:06.440 are both virtual and now in person. We love doing 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:10.240 in person with our cohorts. And what we know from 0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:12.920 these different groups, and they're all ages, they're interns. All 0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:15.840 the way to CEOs is that it's learning to think 0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:20.200 like a winning poker player translates to asking for that raise, 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:22.960 asking for that promotion. And what we see is through 0:15:22.960 --> 0:15:27.000 their testimonials is that we're hearing stories around doing just 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:30.520 that and people are getting outside of their comfort zone, 0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:32.640 which may not sound like such a big deal, but 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:36.640 it is absolutely critical to have the courage in order 0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:39.840 to do that. We're actually running a couple studies. So 0:15:39.880 --> 0:15:42.440 you asked about data, and we're big on data at 0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:45.760 Poker Power. We're actually doing a study with Northwestern and 0:15:45.840 --> 0:15:48.880 also with Harvard, and we're going to put numbers to 0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:50.200 exactly what I am. 0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:52.840 Saying, What is it about poker versus I don't know, 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:57.120 you know, car racing or some other sport. What is 0:15:57.120 --> 0:16:00.520 it about poker specifically that gives you the skill? And 0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:02.400 I guess, and do you have to get to a 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:05.880 certain expertise in terms of playing poker or is it 0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:08.280 just doing it over and over in order to be 0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:10.000 able then start applying it in the workplace. 0:16:11.680 --> 0:16:13.440 So what I like to say about poker and I 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:16.200 used to race cars, So I love that analogy. But 0:16:16.280 --> 0:16:18.400 the reason it doesn't work is that to be an 0:16:18.440 --> 0:16:21.560 amazing car racer, it's a physical skill. It's mental, certainly, 0:16:21.600 --> 0:16:24.680 but it's a physical skill. Poker is different. And while 0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:27.120 you need to have stamina to stay at a poker table, 0:16:27.200 --> 0:16:29.880 what you really need is your mind. And so it's 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:33.560 the ultimate meritocracy, and that is incredibly empowering for women 0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:35.560 to be able to sit down at a table and 0:16:35.640 --> 0:16:39.080 it doesn't matter how big, tall, strong they are, how 0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:41.320 fast they are, None of that matters. What matters is 0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:44.360 how they play their cards. And so I think it's actually, 0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:48.080 you know, the greatest leveler to help women take what 0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:50.160 they can from the poker table and start to apply 0:16:50.240 --> 0:16:52.960 it to real life and to workplace. And what we 0:16:53.120 --> 0:16:55.320 like to say is there's some number of hands, and 0:16:55.360 --> 0:16:57.680 so I think it's about one hundred hands of play 0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:00.680 for you to really start to understand the rules of 0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:03.040 the game, the position that you play in the game, 0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:06.680 and how your stack of chips factors into the game. 0:17:06.800 --> 0:17:10.200 Those are the key elements that you maneuver hand after hand. 0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:13.440 After those country hands, I say, you can go play 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:15.800 in a charity tournament and you will not be the 0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:18.879 first person to bust. And the reason that matters is 0:17:18.960 --> 0:17:21.280 we need more women sitting at the table at those 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:23.959 charity events because right now it's almost all men who 0:17:24.000 --> 0:17:26.000 are playing the game, and that's where the deals are 0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:28.000 getting done and that's where the networks are formed. 0:17:28.560 --> 0:17:30.040 We have like thirty seconds left, but I want to 0:17:30.080 --> 0:17:33.240 make sure we understand how the business works. How much 0:17:33.280 --> 0:17:36.240 does it cost to actually get trained by you guys. 0:17:37.520 --> 0:17:40.280 Yeah, so you can enroll in virtual classes today. We 0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:42.280 have them starting at the beginning of every month, and 0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:45.239 it's fifty dollars for four classes. So we feel very 0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:48.120 strongly about not having barriers to entry. If you would 0:17:48.240 --> 0:17:50.679 like to work with us as a corporate partner, you 0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:52.880 should reach out directly to me and the team and 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:56.480 we will create the spoke experience that is one of 0:17:56.520 --> 0:17:59.359 a kind for your clients, for your internal employees, and 0:17:59.359 --> 0:18:01.159 for the different way and cohorts that you'd like to 0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:01.520 work with. 0:18:02.160 --> 0:18:04.919 Really interesting, all right, erin thank you so much, Aaron Leiden. 0:18:05.800 --> 0:18:08.320 She is the president of Poker Power, joining us on 0:18:08.400 --> 0:18:13.840 Zoom from Chicago. Interesting. So I guess there is what 0:18:13.880 --> 0:18:14.960 you can go play poker now? 0:18:15.240 --> 0:18:19.359 Not not good, I'll say that. Not good at poker. 0:18:20.800 --> 0:18:23.560 All it takes is one hundred hens or the roulette 0:18:23.600 --> 0:18:25.800 kind of guy. No, I don't do any of that stuff. 0:18:25.920 --> 0:18:28.080 I'll tell you my Vegas story, the point where I 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:28.840 lost a lot of money in. 0:18:28.880 --> 0:18:32.639 The vegab story. Always are good stories. All right, this 0:18:32.680 --> 0:18:33.280 is Bloomberg. 0:18:35.680 --> 0:18:39.280 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:18:39.320 --> 0:18:43.320 live weekday afternoons from three to six. Easter on Bloomberg Radio, 0:18:43.520 --> 0:18:46.800