WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Ben Snider & Tina Fordham

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. On the latest edition

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<v Speaker 1>of the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, Tina Fordham Fordham Global Insight,

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<v Speaker 1>single best idea on a Wednesday, a quiet summer Wednesday.

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<v Speaker 1>I looked at the news, I'll say, at one am,

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<v Speaker 1>and then you know, you try to wake up from

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<v Speaker 1>the surveillance night sleep, and the news flow was absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>extraordinary and it's really where our many news bureaus payoff.

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<v Speaker 1>Ethan Browner let us off today from Tel Aviv was

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<v Speaker 1>just absolutely fabulous on what we saw in Beirut and

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<v Speaker 1>in Tehran and many many other stories, including the FED

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<v Speaker 1>coverage today to go to. But all of it was

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<v Speaker 1>simply about a continued equity. Let I have no idea

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<v Speaker 1>where that's going. Buller beear Gina Martin Adams showed up.

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<v Speaker 1>She has been absolutely brilliant about a revenue slowdown, in

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<v Speaker 1>organic sales growth slow down. Not too optimistic it's coming back,

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<v Speaker 1>but huge margin strength seen by numerous corporations, and of

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<v Speaker 1>course we've seen that with Microsoft yesterday even though it's off,

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<v Speaker 1>and with Google. And we'll see what Meta and the

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<v Speaker 1>rest do here in the coming hours. Ben Snyder holds

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<v Speaker 1>Court at Golden Sachs with David Costin. We asked him

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<v Speaker 1>about the persistency of the moats around AI.

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<v Speaker 2>It's important to remember before anyone was focused on the

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<v Speaker 2>AI investment boom of the last year and a half

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<v Speaker 2>or two years, these stocks have outperformed for most of

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<v Speaker 2>the last decade. And they've done so because they have

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<v Speaker 2>great business models. They have motes, they have above average

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<v Speaker 2>revenue growth, and they have profit margins that are two

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<v Speaker 2>or three times those of the rest of the S

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<v Speaker 2>and P five hundred, So that means a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>cash flow generation and they've successfully re invested that cash

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<v Speaker 2>flow to fuel successive growth.

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<v Speaker 1>Ben Snyder had a seventy two page deck. Again, we

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<v Speaker 1>protect the copyright of all of our guests. Please go

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<v Speaker 1>to Golden Sachs to get the great work that they're

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<v Speaker 1>doing there on the equity markets. Great. At the end

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<v Speaker 1>of it, the Lincoln Costin's work with Ben Snyder and

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<v Speaker 1>of course with Abby Joseph Cohene who was recently with

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<v Speaker 1>us now at Columbia Business School. What else do we

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<v Speaker 1>do on single best idea today? We had like fourteen options.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm kidding, maybe it's only nine options, but the answer

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<v Speaker 1>is we had to address our international relations and some

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<v Speaker 1>would say are fractured and certainly dynamic international relations. Paul

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<v Speaker 1>Senior was great. We were through all the different plots

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<v Speaker 1>that you can talk about, all the news and the zeitgeist,

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<v Speaker 1>and Paul Sweeny just said, simply to Tina Fordham, what

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<v Speaker 1>about Ukraine. Here's Tina Fordham Fordham Global insight on Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>into August of twenty twenty.

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<v Speaker 3>Four in zone summer. I think yesterday Russia launched its

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<v Speaker 3>sort of biggest drone attack on Ukraine for some months.

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<v Speaker 3>It's also the height of the summer fighting season, and

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<v Speaker 3>I'm arguing that the period between now and November and

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<v Speaker 3>maybe until Inauguration Day in January next year is going

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<v Speaker 3>to see an uptick in geopolitical risk. And that matters

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<v Speaker 3>for your listeners because they're all watching the FED. Conflicts

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<v Speaker 3>are inflationary and this is the time to you know,

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<v Speaker 3>to go for it.

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<v Speaker 1>And to that point, and I'll go back to I

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<v Speaker 1>think it was February twenty four, two years ago. Our

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<v Speaker 1>first interview on Ukraine was Davidlanda at Deutsche Bank and

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<v Speaker 1>the first thing out of doctor focarts Lando's mouth was

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<v Speaker 1>there will be a fiscal oomph, that the austerity of

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<v Speaker 1>Europe will end and there will be the spending that

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<v Speaker 1>Tina Fordham talks about there too years over two years

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<v Speaker 1>on as well. I want to talk about one concept here,

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<v Speaker 1>on single best idea that's important, and it's sort of

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<v Speaker 1>an ugly chart. Like if I say the yield, the

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<v Speaker 1>yield on the nominal visible tenuere yield, or even if

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<v Speaker 1>you adjust for inflation and you call it the real yield,

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<v Speaker 1>they're not really elegant, well contained charts. The real yield

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<v Speaker 1>is more elegant than the nominal yield. So if I

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<v Speaker 1>say the yield's in a range which I think we

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<v Speaker 1>all understand, and if the yield comes down to the

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<v Speaker 1>support of that range, will it break through? Something changed

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<v Speaker 1>today into this FED meeting. I have no idea what's

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<v Speaker 1>going to happen at the press conference, but a questionnaire

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<v Speaker 1>into August is do we finally see the yield on

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<v Speaker 1>the nominal ten year or the inflation adjusted ten year

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<v Speaker 1>break down into new disinflationtionary territory and that ambiguity over

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<v Speaker 1>why that's occurring, including slower US or global economic growth,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course that gets back to China. Just some

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<v Speaker 1>of the mysteries into August of two thousand and twenty four.

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<v Speaker 1>We're out on YouTube. Subscribe Bloomberg Podcasts. I can't say

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<v Speaker 1>enough about it. There's a New York Times article in

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<v Speaker 1>the last twelve hours on YouTube. Please read it. It's

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<v Speaker 1>extraordinary the impact, and we're seeing that every day here

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg. On Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, and of

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<v Speaker 1>course on Apple podcasts. Single best idea