Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. On the latest edition
Speaker 1: of the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, Tina Fordham Fordham Global Insight,
Speaker 1: single best idea on a Wednesday, a quiet summer Wednesday.
Speaker 1: I looked at the news, I'll say, at one am,
Speaker 1: and then you know, you try to wake up from
Speaker 1: the surveillance night sleep, and the news flow was absolutely
Speaker 1: extraordinary and it's really where our many news bureaus payoff.
Speaker 1: Ethan Browner let us off today from Tel Aviv was
Speaker 1: just absolutely fabulous on what we saw in Beirut and
Speaker 1: in Tehran and many many other stories, including the FED
Speaker 1: coverage today to go to. But all of it was
Speaker 1: simply about a continued equity. Let I have no idea
Speaker 1: where that's going. Buller beear Gina Martin Adams showed up.
Speaker 1: She has been absolutely brilliant about a revenue slowdown, in
Speaker 1: organic sales growth slow down. Not too optimistic it's coming back,
Speaker 1: but huge margin strength seen by numerous corporations, and of
Speaker 1: course we've seen that with Microsoft yesterday even though it's off,
Speaker 1: and with Google. And we'll see what Meta and the
Speaker 1: rest do here in the coming hours. Ben Snyder holds
Speaker 1: Court at Golden Sachs with David Costin. We asked him
Speaker 1: about the persistency of the moats around AI.
Speaker 2: It's important to remember before anyone was focused on the
Speaker 2: AI investment boom of the last year and a half
Speaker 2: or two years, these stocks have outperformed for most of
Speaker 2: the last decade. And they've done so because they have
Speaker 2: great business models. They have motes, they have above average
Speaker 2: revenue growth, and they have profit margins that are two
Speaker 2: or three times those of the rest of the S
Speaker 2: and P five hundred, So that means a lot of
Speaker 2: cash flow generation and they've successfully re invested that cash
Speaker 2: flow to fuel successive growth.
Speaker 1: Ben Snyder had a seventy two page deck. Again, we
Speaker 1: protect the copyright of all of our guests. Please go
Speaker 1: to Golden Sachs to get the great work that they're
Speaker 1: doing there on the equity markets. Great. At the end
Speaker 1: of it, the Lincoln Costin's work with Ben Snyder and
Speaker 1: of course with Abby Joseph Cohene who was recently with
Speaker 1: us now at Columbia Business School. What else do we
Speaker 1: do on single best idea today? We had like fourteen options.
Speaker 1: I'm kidding, maybe it's only nine options, but the answer
Speaker 1: is we had to address our international relations and some
Speaker 1: would say are fractured and certainly dynamic international relations. Paul
Speaker 1: Senior was great. We were through all the different plots
Speaker 1: that you can talk about, all the news and the zeitgeist,
Speaker 1: and Paul Sweeny just said, simply to Tina Fordham, what
Speaker 1: about Ukraine. Here's Tina Fordham Fordham Global insight on Ukraine
Speaker 1: into August of twenty twenty.
Speaker 3: Four in zone summer. I think yesterday Russia launched its
Speaker 3: sort of biggest drone attack on Ukraine for some months.
Speaker 3: It's also the height of the summer fighting season, and
Speaker 3: I'm arguing that the period between now and November and
Speaker 3: maybe until Inauguration Day in January next year is going
Speaker 3: to see an uptick in geopolitical risk. And that matters
Speaker 3: for your listeners because they're all watching the FED. Conflicts
Speaker 3: are inflationary and this is the time to you know,
Speaker 3: to go for it.
Speaker 1: And to that point, and I'll go back to I
Speaker 1: think it was February twenty four, two years ago. Our
Speaker 1: first interview on Ukraine was Davidlanda at Deutsche Bank and
Speaker 1: the first thing out of doctor focarts Lando's mouth was
Speaker 1: there will be a fiscal oomph, that the austerity of
Speaker 1: Europe will end and there will be the spending that
Speaker 1: Tina Fordham talks about there too years over two years
Speaker 1: on as well. I want to talk about one concept here,
Speaker 1: on single best idea that's important, and it's sort of
Speaker 1: an ugly chart. Like if I say the yield, the
Speaker 1: yield on the nominal visible tenuere yield, or even if
Speaker 1: you adjust for inflation and you call it the real yield,
Speaker 1: they're not really elegant, well contained charts. The real yield
Speaker 1: is more elegant than the nominal yield. So if I
Speaker 1: say the yield's in a range which I think we
Speaker 1: all understand, and if the yield comes down to the
Speaker 1: support of that range, will it break through? Something changed
Speaker 1: today into this FED meeting. I have no idea what's
Speaker 1: going to happen at the press conference, but a questionnaire
Speaker 1: into August is do we finally see the yield on
Speaker 1: the nominal ten year or the inflation adjusted ten year
Speaker 1: break down into new disinflationtionary territory and that ambiguity over
Speaker 1: why that's occurring, including slower US or global economic growth,
Speaker 1: and of course that gets back to China. Just some
Speaker 1: of the mysteries into August of two thousand and twenty four.
Speaker 1: We're out on YouTube. Subscribe Bloomberg Podcasts. I can't say
Speaker 1: enough about it. There's a New York Times article in
Speaker 1: the last twelve hours on YouTube. Please read it. It's
Speaker 1: extraordinary the impact, and we're seeing that every day here
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg. On Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, and of
Speaker 1: course on Apple podcasts. Single best idea