WEBVTT - Surveillance: Remembering President George H.W. Bush 0:00:09.880 --> 0:00:13.800 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Ley. 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:17.560 We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.480 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:34.239 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. We 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:37.480 are thrilled to bring you this morning. Diana fritchgot Roth, 0:00:38.320 --> 0:00:42.680 former Office of Policy Planning for George Herbert Walker Bush 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:45.800 and now working with the Trump administration and Treasure You're 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:49.080 working with Secretary Minution right now, right, and it's on 0:00:49.320 --> 0:00:54.320 economic policy. You have a span across Republican politics. I 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:57.360 would suggest as no one truly does. There's some that 0:00:57.400 --> 0:01:00.520 did it, then, there's some that did it along the way, 0:01:00.560 --> 0:01:02.760 and there's some that are doing it now. But I 0:01:02.760 --> 0:01:07.520 would argue in Washington, nobody's spanned it like you. What's 0:01:07.560 --> 0:01:12.160 a difference between Treasury financial in the process of Republican 0:01:12.560 --> 0:01:19.080 politics and administration now versus under President Bush? Well. I 0:01:19.080 --> 0:01:22.559 started off with President Reagan in the Council of Economic Advisors, 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:27.080 and it's been a great privilege to work under four administrations. 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:32.120 President Reagan, President George H. W. Bush, President George W. Bush, 0:01:32.120 --> 0:01:34.720 and now President Trump. And we're here to talk about 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:38.600 President George H. W. Bush. And he was a very 0:01:38.760 --> 0:01:43.959 kind man, as many people have said, and he did 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:48.240 his best to cut the deficit and keep the economy going. 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:53.280 And what was really interesting is that in what we 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:56.120 were saying is that the economy was growing, but the 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:59.880 National Bureau of Economic Research didn't mark the end of 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:02.600 the recession, the end of the recession being in March 0:02:04.200 --> 0:02:10.080 until December. So in December nWo when President Bush said 0:02:10.080 --> 0:02:13.120 the economy had been growing all year, turned out he 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:17.400 was right, it had been growing out right. Well, I'm 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:20.960 not blaming what is so important here and this is 0:02:21.040 --> 0:02:23.080 in great and I say this is great spirit for 0:02:23.080 --> 0:02:26.639 the humor of the former president. We need a definition 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:29.120 of voodoo economics, and you're the only one in the 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:31.560 planet can really. I mean, Jim Baker can do it, 0:02:31.600 --> 0:02:33.959 and others can do it. But Diana first got Roth, 0:02:34.160 --> 0:02:37.920 what is voodoo economics? Just once and for all. Well, 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:40.639 I don't know what voodoo economics is. But right now 0:02:40.720 --> 0:02:44.560 we have cut taxes and the economy is growing very strongly. 0:02:44.840 --> 0:02:49.880 We had great GDP numbers last month. The economy is 0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:55.000 growing above three right now, take your point, debate about 0:02:55.000 --> 0:02:57.359 the vector there. But this is important and this goes 0:02:57.400 --> 0:03:01.000 back to something that Michael McKee said to me. Yes 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:03.959 and again, folks, Mike McKee will join me on radio 0:03:04.080 --> 0:03:06.880 here on Bloomberg Surveillance through the morning. I've thrown with that. 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:10.560 And what's so interesting here is the lessons we learned 0:03:10.560 --> 0:03:17.480 about cutting taxes to spur growth and maintain fiscal integrity. 0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:21.320 That was something important to President Bush, important to President Reagan. 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:26.280 There was an experiment then, and under President Trump's leadership, 0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:30.480 there's an experiment. Now. How's the experiment going? Can we 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:35.600 really grow our way out of a fiscal challenge? The 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:40.160 difference between twenty sixteen and the economy now in seventeen 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:45.880 and eighteen is remarkable. People thought that the economy could 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:49.480 not grow at higher than two percent, and it's on 0:03:49.560 --> 0:03:52.880 track to grow at higher than three percent this year. 0:03:53.280 --> 0:03:58.680 Business investment sword consumer confidence. Business confidence are up, business 0:03:58.760 --> 0:04:02.840 investment increased. Okay, I'll take your point, Diana. But what 0:04:02.960 --> 0:04:05.320 is so important here is to understand that idea of 0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:07.680 a twin deficit. My chart of the year is that 0:04:07.840 --> 0:04:11.240 linkage of trade deficits something dear to President Trump, and 0:04:11.320 --> 0:04:14.440 also the linkage of our fiscal deficit and the vector 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:16.920 of that is getting back to the time of when 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:20.359 you were very young of Reagan and Bush Senior. Do 0:04:20.440 --> 0:04:24.520 we have a risk here of twin deficits into or 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:30.040 frankly beyond. It's up to Congress to put in place 0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:35.080 proposals to cut spending, to cut the spending. And President 0:04:35.120 --> 0:04:40.560 Trump proposed cutting spending. President George H. W. Bush proposed 0:04:40.600 --> 0:04:43.920 cutting spending, and it's up to Congress to follow and 0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:48.720 make those spending cuts that presidents propose. Presidents propose, but 0:04:48.960 --> 0:04:53.120 Congress has to in the last uh, Congress is responsible 0:04:53.480 --> 0:04:56.080 for how much you spent. No, this is interesting, Diana 0:04:56.120 --> 0:05:09.160 first got Roth, thank you so much joining us right 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:13.440 now in Washington to begin a discussion on this is 0:05:13.640 --> 0:05:17.000 the right gentleman, and that as you know, since November 0:05:17.680 --> 0:05:21.120 on the death of George Bush, there's been all sorts 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:25.000 of worthy speak he isn't worthy in the communications of 0:05:25.000 --> 0:05:28.760 the Republican Party. Run bun Jen has had a most interesting, 0:05:29.040 --> 0:05:34.839 interesting career managing the message of Republicans. He's reached huge 0:05:35.000 --> 0:05:38.039 acclaim for that, frankly by Democrats as well, and we're 0:05:38.040 --> 0:05:41.720 thrilled at run bu Jeen can join us this morning, Ron, 0:05:41.760 --> 0:05:46.119 What was your biggest challenge of communication for Republicans. Well, thanks, 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:49.000 it's great to hear you know, I would say that, 0:05:49.520 --> 0:05:53.120 you know, the biggest challenges are getting the message out 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:56.760 in a consistent way, and that that is very challenging 0:05:56.760 --> 0:06:00.000 when you have all kinds of elected officials in republic 0:06:00.000 --> 0:06:04.520 Looking party who want to communicate different things, Getting them 0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:07.440 unfocused on a single message to say the same things 0:06:07.440 --> 0:06:10.920 at the same time can be very very difficult, and 0:06:11.040 --> 0:06:14.680 especially in today's age. Obviously you have the President Trump 0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:18.560 uh communicating via Twitter and really driving that driving that 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:21.200 message the way he wants to. And I think there's 0:06:21.240 --> 0:06:24.800 a lot of Republicans that are are are figuring out 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:29.760 the direction of the Republican Party after after the election, 0:06:30.320 --> 0:06:34.240 after the election, and the direction. Do you just assume 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:36.720 that President Trump runs for a second term? Is that 0:06:36.839 --> 0:06:39.760 just a given? Yes? I think he runs for a 0:06:39.800 --> 0:06:42.400 second term, and I think he's going to give Democrats 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:45.159 a run for their money. You know, if Joe Biden runs, 0:06:45.200 --> 0:06:49.280 he's really the only relatable, I think candidate at this 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:53.040 point to Americans that could really uh that could really 0:06:53.560 --> 0:06:56.840 give a good be a good sparring partner versus h 0:06:57.320 --> 0:07:00.440 versus President Trump. And he's just a master of message 0:07:00.440 --> 0:07:03.720 in terms of activating people and getting people riled up 0:07:03.720 --> 0:07:06.600 and getting you know, harnessing that anger that's out there. 0:07:06.839 --> 0:07:09.600 And I feel like there are so many Democrats right 0:07:09.640 --> 0:07:12.200 now are running that they're going to dilute their own mess. 0:07:12.200 --> 0:07:15.160 You were directly involved in the process and processes of 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:19.760 the last election. At the Rotunda today and and yesterday 0:07:19.840 --> 0:07:22.840 and at the National Cathedral today there will not only 0:07:22.920 --> 0:07:26.320 be the remains of the forty one president, his son, 0:07:26.400 --> 0:07:30.560 the President with Mrs Bush yesterday. Some of those images 0:07:30.600 --> 0:07:33.640 were wonderful, but also Jeb Bush, which is maybe the 0:07:33.680 --> 0:07:36.680 more modern Bush and certainly the one that run Bungen 0:07:37.000 --> 0:07:41.200 has bounced off of the most in recent years. Can 0:07:41.320 --> 0:07:45.120 jet Bushes still run in the Republican Party? I think 0:07:45.240 --> 0:07:49.160 more along the lines of UM on the local level, 0:07:49.200 --> 0:07:52.640 potentially the state level. There are still opportunities out there, 0:07:52.680 --> 0:07:55.840 you know, for for those voices UM. You know, there 0:07:55.920 --> 0:07:58.960 is a polarization in politics, obviously on the left, and 0:07:59.000 --> 0:08:02.560 the polarization and with even the Republican experiment. I would 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:04.760 say it's you know, I I would agree with that, 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:07.560 and I think that's going on in the Democratic party too. 0:08:07.680 --> 0:08:12.000 You have this polarization on both sides. Um, that's that's 0:08:12.080 --> 0:08:14.360 really pulling people to the left and right. There are 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:20.360 still opportunities in those moderate suburbs. Um that Republicans lost 0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:24.880 um as a referendum on President Trump, UM to a 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:28.600 lack more moderate voices. I think in the future, and uh, 0:08:28.640 --> 0:08:31.520 you know, I think that the Republican Party still remain strong. 0:08:31.600 --> 0:08:33.400 We still have the White House, we still have the Senate. 0:08:33.440 --> 0:08:37.000 We grew our numbers in the Senate, but as you 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:40.440 mentioned earlier to me, you've got to take back some 0:08:40.640 --> 0:08:44.280 of the losses. Where does that strategy come from? I'm 0:08:44.320 --> 0:08:47.840 fascinated within what I think all of our listeners, whatever 0:08:47.880 --> 0:08:51.280 their politics, they observe the president of the presidential tweets, 0:08:51.360 --> 0:08:56.320 the conferences, the gaggle around the helicopters he dashes. Forget 0:08:56.320 --> 0:08:59.920 about that communication strategy. There's got to be a communication 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:05.320 strategy for Republicans to get away from his core constituency. 0:09:05.440 --> 0:09:08.640 Does that strategy exist or where where's the colonel that's 0:09:08.679 --> 0:09:11.000 not in the lunch room at the Hey Adams Hotel. 0:09:11.160 --> 0:09:14.319 Is Well, no, it's not. I mean, it's core constituency 0:09:14.440 --> 0:09:18.560 is though of voters right now? So you have to 0:09:18.600 --> 0:09:21.600 figure out where can you get the other the margin, 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:25.160 where do you get the next that's your world, That's 0:09:25.240 --> 0:09:27.959 exactly that's our world, and we have to figure that out. 0:09:28.040 --> 0:09:30.280 I mean, I think that there is a number of 0:09:30.320 --> 0:09:32.480 things we should be doing. We need to be appealing 0:09:32.559 --> 0:09:37.319 much more to women, to white female voters, to to frankly, 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:41.520 be much more inclusive um in in our messaging. And 0:09:41.640 --> 0:09:43.920 that has to happen at a consistent basis. Right now, 0:09:43.960 --> 0:09:47.400 what we're doing and what the Democrats are doing is primary, 0:09:47.520 --> 0:09:51.480 is driving messages. It feels like we're both both sides 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:54.319 are running primary elections right now instead of the general, 0:09:54.559 --> 0:09:57.280 and the general election feels like it doesn't really exist, 0:09:57.360 --> 0:10:01.720 meaning that we're driving messages and either side to motivate 0:10:01.720 --> 0:10:05.760 our voters to the polls to try to outprimary each other. Okay, 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:08.320 I love that phrase. That's a round bonding original out 0:10:08.320 --> 0:10:11.800 primary each other. Guess what after that? You got elected enough, 0:10:11.800 --> 0:10:15.240 for example, Ronald Reagan and I would suggest President Bush. 0:10:15.440 --> 0:10:18.679 Maybe they went right, but they moved to the center 0:10:19.160 --> 0:10:22.520 as they moved to the general election. I'm right, those 0:10:22.559 --> 0:10:25.120 days are over right, Well, we'll see. I mean, you know, 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:27.880 every election is different. I mean, you know, when um, 0:10:28.040 --> 0:10:31.880 uh President Bush lost to Bill Clinton. Uh, it was 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:35.240 over the economy, um, and it was over whether or 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:39.680 not President Bush could relate to relate to uh, relate 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:41.719 to Americans. And you started feeling out of touch. And 0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:45.080 the President Clinton took advantage of that, and they called 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:47.760 it it's it's what is it? It's the economy stupid? 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:51.000 Was the was the line. And so I think, you know, 0:10:51.080 --> 0:10:53.720 and within a year or two, I mean, within a year, 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:57.200 we have to start a consistent message that is much 0:10:57.200 --> 0:10:59.560 more appealing or else it's going to be just another 0:10:59.600 --> 0:11:03.720 primary election. Well it's just another primary election and just 0:11:03.760 --> 0:11:06.800 another primary process. But the process is time is different 0:11:07.080 --> 0:11:09.680 from K Street and Ice Street and the other you know, 0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:14.800 the secret dark corridors out by Reagan Airport. There's offices 0:11:14.840 --> 0:11:18.280 of Republicans trying to figure out the primary system inform 0:11:18.320 --> 0:11:22.040 our audience. How does that that ballet start and why 0:11:22.120 --> 0:11:24.319 is it different from the last time around? What I've 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:26.280 learned as New Hampshire is not as important as it 0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:28.880 used to be. I think that this that's right. I 0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:32.360 think um that you know, we start out with with 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:35.960 a slight advantage in Ohio and Florida because we have 0:11:36.320 --> 0:11:39.560 Republican governorships there. You know, we just won a very 0:11:39.600 --> 0:11:42.760 divisive election in Florida. That means we have the infrastructure 0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:46.320 of that state party apparatus to help us with those 0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:51.319 primaries for that primary system. But the primary states are changing, Um, 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:54.400 you know, we have we have states like North Carolina 0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:58.640 that's that feels like it's changing. Um, you know, other 0:11:58.720 --> 0:12:02.280 states like Arizona for instance. That's obviously okay if if 0:12:02.360 --> 0:12:07.520 North Carolina discovers Connor Lamb's plural the gentleman from northwest 0:12:07.600 --> 0:12:13.360 north southwest rather of Pittsburgh, those kind of Democrats. Republicans 0:12:13.440 --> 0:12:15.800 have to be different, don't they. You know, I think 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:19.600 of Austin Powers in that movie Behave. Republicans have to 0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:24.160 behave if they're up against a more traditional Scoop Jackson Democrats. 0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:27.440 I think it really depends on each district, in each message, 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:30.960 you know, and and the candidates themselves, um, you know, 0:12:31.120 --> 0:12:34.000 and what what's going on in that state and district. 0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:35.880 I mean that that's the thing now right now, it's 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:37.959 a it's a referendum on President Trump, and it will 0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:41.120 be a presidential election. But on the local level, they're 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:44.959 going to have to continue to to um to keep 0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:48.400 the Trump based enthusiastic while trying to reach out to 0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:53.079 other voters. And that's a difficult needle to thread. Run Bundie, 0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:55.360 Let's leave it there. Thank you so much, greatly appreciate 0:12:55.400 --> 0:12:59.280 the perspective here of a gentleman in communications for the 0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:01.960 Republican Ron Bundin. Thank you, so thank you very much. 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:16.199 Uh this morning I said to someone a few days ago, 0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:18.760 would you just find the admiral? And of course at 0:13:18.760 --> 0:13:21.440 Bloomberg surveillance there can be only one admiral, and that 0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:24.640 is James Travidez. Of course with a Fletcher School at 0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:28.000 Tufts University. Admiral, we are thrilled to have you with 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:33.480 us today. UM. I was reading about Admiral the Grumming 0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:39.640 torpedo bomber of World War Two and the basic aeronautics 0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:43.640 of what President Bush flew was It drove like a truck. 0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:47.839 I mean it was a little different back then, wasn't 0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:51.839 it It was? And this is all we say fly 0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:56.000 by wire. I mean this is nothing electronic obviously, just 0:13:56.160 --> 0:14:00.200 some basic hydraulics. Truck is a good example. It's like 0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:03.320 a truck made by the Soviet Union. I mean, this 0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:06.360 thing just banged through the air. He was so proud 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:11.080 of it and was such an extraordinary naval hero and 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.160 we all miss him so deeply. I knew him reasonably well, 0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:16.680 wrote some speeches for him over the years, and Tom 0:14:16.679 --> 0:14:19.840 when I was the Supreme AI Commander of NATO, he 0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:22.560 was one of the biggest supporters of NATO. We're going 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:25.200 to miss that, gentleman. Well, that is there. I mean, 0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:27.840 we got eight ways to go now, Michael mckeena jump in. 0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:30.200 But but this is so important. We saw it with 0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:34.600 the Bloomberg interview with Mr Porschenko yesterday on Ukraine John 0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:40.160 Mersheimer Chicago talking about maybe we overreached? Did President Bush 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:43.720 ever suggested his writings are directly to you, Admiral, that 0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:49.480 maybe we overreached too much in our expansion of NATO. Nope, 0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:52.280 he was someone who was rock solid on that. Of 0:14:52.280 --> 0:14:55.840 course he lived those years. Uh. And also we need 0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:58.800 to mention still living the Secretary of State in those days, 0:14:58.880 --> 0:15:03.120 James Baker, who be featured prominently in the funeral today 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:05.960 you'll see his face often. He was one of Bush 0:15:06.000 --> 0:15:08.840 His closest friends. The two of them really created this 0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:14.000 new world. And I think despite all the concern and 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:17.480 claim that perhaps we pushed Russia into a corner. I 0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:20.760 just don't see it that way. Historically, no NATO tanks 0:15:20.800 --> 0:15:25.080 tom ever went rolling into Warsaw or Bucharest to force 0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:27.640 those countries to join NATO. But there were plenty of 0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:30.120 Soviet tanks back in the day that rolled in there. 0:15:30.320 --> 0:15:32.720 Those nations wanted to be in NATO were lucky they're 0:15:32.760 --> 0:15:36.760 in NATO. One of the things that he is known for, 0:15:37.240 --> 0:15:40.200 if you are a nerd enough looking at these things, 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:44.400 is the way he redesigned the National Security Council and 0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:48.200 set up Brent Skokroft as a sort of honest broker. Uh. 0:15:48.520 --> 0:15:54.200 You remember in the Nixon years, before that happened, you 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:59.360 had the big fights between the Henry kissing your faction 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:03.040 and whoever was at State at the time, at George 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:06.880 Schultz in the Reagan administration, UM, that really made a difference. 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:09.920 He had a George H. W. Bush came to office 0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:13.440 with a specific idea of how foreign policy should be run. 0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:18.120 He did and the way he did foreign policy and 0:16:18.240 --> 0:16:24.120 defense policy and international diplomacy were a direct reflection of 0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:28.280 his character, which focused on team building. Uh. You know, 0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:31.000 as he would say, there's no eye in the word 0:16:31.160 --> 0:16:35.640 team t E a M. And it was a reflection 0:16:35.680 --> 0:16:39.720 of his own athleticism coming and playing on great baseball teams, 0:16:39.880 --> 0:16:43.040 and his personality and the way he was raised. And 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:45.720 he wanted a Lieutenant General Brent scot Croft to be 0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:49.760 the National Security Advisor because Brent, who's still alive in 0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:54.680 his nineties, marvelous gentleman. UH was the embodiment of no 0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:57.880 one of us is as smart as all of us 0:16:57.920 --> 0:17:02.080 thinking together. That was the hard of the NSC under 0:17:02.400 --> 0:17:06.560 President Bush the first and it was well run. Did 0:17:06.560 --> 0:17:09.879 he leave it in as good as shape as he founded? 0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:14.199 A President Bill Clinton's first term not particularly successful from 0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:16.720 a foreign policy standpoint, And then you had a lot 0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:20.760 of the former Bush one forty one alumni end up 0:17:20.760 --> 0:17:25.680 in Bush forty three's cabinet, and people are looking at, 0:17:25.800 --> 0:17:28.840 you know, the legacy of George W. Bush in the 0:17:28.840 --> 0:17:31.520 Middle East and wondering how did how do we go wrong? 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:35.680 From father to son. Part of it can be explained 0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:39.359 by nine eleven and the extraordinary pressure that put on 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:44.159 that administration, UH, the Bush forty three administration. Part of 0:17:44.160 --> 0:17:48.359 it was personalities. Um I was at the time working 0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:52.920 directly for Secretary of Defense Don Rumsfeld strong personality, Vice 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:57.600 President Dick Janey's strong personality, National Security Advisor Condi Rice, 0:17:57.640 --> 0:18:01.600 who I think tried very much to followed the sccroft model. 0:18:02.000 --> 0:18:05.480 But in those years, those were big personality. We were 0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:08.240 in a war, and I think it was a very 0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:11.320 different time for the nation. So if you want to 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:14.399 look for a model, it is definitely Bushart one. If 0:18:14.400 --> 0:18:16.960 you're just joining us. James Trevidus with us, he is, 0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:20.080 of course with a Fletcher School, former Admiral of the 0:18:20.160 --> 0:18:23.320 United States Navy on the special day for Bloomberg Surveillance. 0:18:23.320 --> 0:18:26.360 Our coverage from Washington and from New York, this day 0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:31.480 of memory and services at the National Cathedral for George 0:18:31.480 --> 0:18:34.199 Herbert Walker Bush. Mike, your questions are so good and 0:18:34.240 --> 0:18:38.439 so well informed. I want you to continue with the Admiral, Michael, 0:18:38.480 --> 0:18:41.840 pick it up again. Please let me as long as 0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:44.160 we have you here and we have an admiral, let 0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:47.040 me just ask you something about what's going on today. 0:18:48.320 --> 0:18:53.000 The whole US China trade issue gets caught up in 0:18:53.000 --> 0:18:56.760 the larger U S. China relationship, and we saw and 0:18:56.920 --> 0:18:58.879 this didn't get a lot of publicity, but during the 0:18:58.960 --> 0:19:04.080 g twenty summit Argentina, the US sent a destroyer through 0:19:04.400 --> 0:19:09.440 the South China Sea into territory. China is claiming how 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:14.400 dangerous is that situation? How how much of a conflict 0:19:14.440 --> 0:19:16.760 do we really have with the Chinese over this? Because 0:19:16.760 --> 0:19:19.040 people are talking about, well, if if Trump fails whatever, 0:19:19.080 --> 0:19:21.040 we can have a new Cold War. Is that what 0:19:21.080 --> 0:19:23.080 we're facing the kind of thing we went through with 0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:25.800 the Soviet Union? Or is it a different kind of challenge. 0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:30.000 I think it'll end up ultimately being a different kind 0:19:30.000 --> 0:19:34.000 of challenge, Michael, but Um, we have tactical challenges with 0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:40.240 China in tariffs, trade, intellectual property, cyber conflict. Those are 0:19:40.280 --> 0:19:42.680 things I think we can negotiate our way through, and 0:19:43.000 --> 0:19:45.639 I think we will. The one I worry about is 0:19:45.680 --> 0:19:49.200 the uber strategic challenge is in fact, the South China 0:19:49.240 --> 0:19:52.320 Sea enormous body of water size of the Caribbean and 0:19:52.400 --> 0:19:56.480 Gulf of Mexico combined, full of hydrocarbons. China claims it 0:19:56.600 --> 0:20:01.040 in its entirety as territorial sea. It's a posterous claim. 0:20:01.440 --> 0:20:04.440 The United States and our allies are pushing back on it, 0:20:04.600 --> 0:20:08.119 not only in international courts where it's been rejected, but 0:20:08.320 --> 0:20:12.240 also operationally your point, driving our ships right through these 0:20:12.359 --> 0:20:15.200 claim territorial sees. I think that's gonna be a tough 0:20:15.280 --> 0:20:18.640 one to negotiate, but no, in the end, I think 0:20:18.640 --> 0:20:21.040 we'll find a way to avoid stumbling into a full 0:20:21.040 --> 0:20:23.720 blown cold war. I've got about five more minutes of 0:20:23.760 --> 0:20:26.719 good questions on Robert Caplan's Asia Cauldron, but we'll have 0:20:26.760 --> 0:20:29.240 to leave it there with a good admiral at Mr Venus, 0:20:29.280 --> 0:20:31.080 we are thrilled that you are with us today. Thank 0:20:31.119 --> 0:20:34.760 you so much. He is a tough university and there 0:20:34.800 --> 0:20:44.000 Fletcher School as well. Michael McKee with me. This is 0:20:44.040 --> 0:20:46.560 Tom Keene and Washington, Michael McKee and New York on 0:20:46.600 --> 0:20:51.080 this most special day for the nation morning for the 0:20:51.160 --> 0:20:55.800 memory and services of George Herbert Walker Bush with us, 0:20:55.800 --> 0:20:58.840 not William Hoagland. Bill Hoglan, who is truly one of 0:20:58.840 --> 0:21:02.359 the nation's experts on our debt and deficit with the 0:21:02.400 --> 0:21:06.399 Bipartisan at Council. Bill Hoagland. Um, we go back to 0:21:06.480 --> 0:21:10.040 Henry Clay in eighteen fifty two, and then with the 0:21:10.080 --> 0:21:13.480 finishing of the Capitol in eighteen sixty and eighteen sixty eight, 0:21:13.520 --> 0:21:18.359 Abraham Lincoln and Thaddya Stevens and on to President Reagan. 0:21:18.400 --> 0:21:22.879 President for John McCain on August thirty one of this year, 0:21:23.400 --> 0:21:26.760 and now another president lying in state in the rotunda. 0:21:26.800 --> 0:21:29.600 You visited the rotunda two days ago, and you had 0:21:29.600 --> 0:21:32.680 the privilege of visiting in the quiet early morning. What 0:21:32.800 --> 0:21:38.399 was it like being in the rotunda? Very moving, calm. I. 0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:41.159 Of course, it's spent many years in the Capitol, I 0:21:41.320 --> 0:21:44.520 worked in the Senate, I spent many a day walking 0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:48.879 through the rotunda. But to visit the rotunda with the 0:21:48.880 --> 0:21:52.359 president lying in state, uh and in the quiet of 0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:56.520 that early morning hour, um is was brought back a 0:21:56.560 --> 0:22:00.320 lot of memories in my affection for the for the president, 0:22:01.600 --> 0:22:06.639 overcome me peas honest John meetscham Will you eulogize today? 0:22:06.960 --> 0:22:10.800 Of course, his one volume is considered definitive tell Us 0:22:10.920 --> 0:22:14.520 of the Fiscal George H. W. Bush, I think it's 0:22:14.520 --> 0:22:16.919 a bit of a mystery and a bit of confusion 0:22:17.640 --> 0:22:22.359 over what is fiscal beliefs really were? Well, I do 0:22:22.440 --> 0:22:28.720 think that clearly uh uh. The when he came into 0:22:28.880 --> 0:22:32.399 office to get the nomination, there was some concern that 0:22:32.480 --> 0:22:38.520 this was a liberal Republican, Eastern State Republican who was 0:22:38.560 --> 0:22:41.360 not to be trusted on some of the conservative issues 0:22:41.440 --> 0:22:44.080 of control and not raising taxes. And so of course 0:22:44.160 --> 0:22:47.879 his big his statement down in New Orleans and on 0:22:47.960 --> 0:22:51.280 the getting the nomination read my lips came back to 0:22:51.320 --> 0:22:55.959 haunt him because when we went into the we had 0:22:56.000 --> 0:22:58.720 a number of issues facing as we had savings and 0:22:58.800 --> 0:23:01.560 loan meltdown, We had a number of problems that Congress 0:23:01.640 --> 0:23:05.920 is being controlled by Democrats, and we negotiated a budget agreement. 0:23:05.960 --> 0:23:11.200 In it was a budget agreement that did required the 0:23:11.280 --> 0:23:16.879 negotiations and compromise, and in that compromise UH taxes were raised, 0:23:16.920 --> 0:23:19.960 but it was a five billion dollar deficit reduction. He did. 0:23:20.080 --> 0:23:23.520 He was concerned and his staff were concerned about the deficits. 0:23:23.600 --> 0:23:25.679 They would have preferred to have controlled it on the 0:23:25.720 --> 0:23:29.040 spending side, but we were working with a Democratic Congress 0:23:29.040 --> 0:23:32.000 and so he had to negotiate. UM I had the 0:23:32.200 --> 0:23:35.879 privilege and honor of attending the twenty fifth anniversary of 0:23:36.359 --> 0:23:41.640 the President at his library and in college station back 0:23:41.680 --> 0:23:45.879 in April. Um As I was getting ready to go 0:23:46.119 --> 0:23:48.760 onto the stage, the President and came up behind me 0:23:48.840 --> 0:23:52.000 and his wheelchair and pulled me on my UM shirt 0:23:52.040 --> 0:23:54.600 TI or my coach Kai and said to me something 0:23:54.600 --> 0:23:57.320 about how I was responsible for him being a one 0:23:57.400 --> 0:24:01.160 term president, because that negociated to how much of course 0:24:01.240 --> 0:24:04.439 he was kidding he was He was wonderful and working 0:24:04.520 --> 0:24:08.920 with the staff. And I will always remember that last 0:24:09.640 --> 0:24:13.200 direct encounter I had with the president. It. Uh, it's 0:24:13.280 --> 0:24:19.480 quaint to remember now that Uh, in fiscal nineteen ninety, 0:24:19.600 --> 0:24:21.720 the year that you put together this agreement of the 0:24:21.840 --> 0:24:27.840 federal budget, deficit was two dollars and it's going to 0:24:27.920 --> 0:24:31.040 be this year at trillion dollars, and and everybody was 0:24:31.520 --> 0:24:35.800 panicked about two hundred and twenty one billion dollars. Uh. 0:24:36.440 --> 0:24:40.320 Things seemed to have changed. It was, I guess to 0:24:40.400 --> 0:24:43.440 get back kind of at what Tom was saying. Uh. 0:24:43.960 --> 0:24:46.960 When he ran for president in nineteen eighty, he derided 0:24:47.040 --> 0:24:49.960 the idea of tax cuts paying for themselves as voodoo economics, 0:24:50.240 --> 0:24:53.880 and he said, you know, read my lips, no new taxes. 0:24:54.680 --> 0:24:59.520 But he agreed rather readily to revenue enhancers. As the 0:25:00.080 --> 0:25:02.679 statement that they put out at the time said, um, 0:25:03.080 --> 0:25:07.800 what what did he really think about deficit spending and taxes? 0:25:08.359 --> 0:25:13.679 This was before the whole Republican tax pledge, and that's right. Thing. Well, 0:25:14.040 --> 0:25:17.359 one thing I would say was that like that he 0:25:18.240 --> 0:25:21.560 that that agreement was the beginning. Of course, yes he 0:25:21.680 --> 0:25:25.760 lost his loss that his term of office at one 0:25:25.880 --> 0:25:28.639 term office, but with but with Clinton coming in, there 0:25:28.720 --> 0:25:32.000