1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Ley. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. We 5 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:37,480 Speaker 1: are thrilled to bring you this morning. Diana fritchgot Roth, 6 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 1: former Office of Policy Planning for George Herbert Walker Bush 7 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 1: and now working with the Trump administration and Treasure You're 8 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 1: working with Secretary Minution right now, right, and it's on 9 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: economic policy. You have a span across Republican politics. I 10 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 1: would suggest as no one truly does. There's some that 11 00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 1: did it, then, there's some that did it along the way, 12 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 1: and there's some that are doing it now. But I 13 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 1: would argue in Washington, nobody's spanned it like you. What's 14 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 1: a difference between Treasury financial in the process of Republican 15 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 1: politics and administration now versus under President Bush? Well. I 16 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:22,559 Speaker 1: started off with President Reagan in the Council of Economic Advisors, 17 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 1: and it's been a great privilege to work under four administrations. 18 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 1: President Reagan, President George H. W. Bush, President George W. Bush, 19 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: and now President Trump. And we're here to talk about 20 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 1: President George H. W. Bush. And he was a very 21 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:43,959 Speaker 1: kind man, as many people have said, and he did 22 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 1: his best to cut the deficit and keep the economy going. 23 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 1: And what was really interesting is that in what we 24 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 1: were saying is that the economy was growing, but the 25 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 1: National Bureau of Economic Research didn't mark the end of 26 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 1: the recession, the end of the recession being in March 27 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 1: until December. So in December nWo when President Bush said 28 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 1: the economy had been growing all year, turned out he 29 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: was right, it had been growing out right. Well, I'm 30 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 1: not blaming what is so important here and this is 31 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:23,080 Speaker 1: in great and I say this is great spirit for 32 00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:26,639 Speaker 1: the humor of the former president. We need a definition 33 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 1: of voodoo economics, and you're the only one in the 34 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 1: planet can really. I mean, Jim Baker can do it, 35 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:33,959 Speaker 1: and others can do it. But Diana first got Roth, 36 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 1: what is voodoo economics? Just once and for all. Well, 37 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:40,639 Speaker 1: I don't know what voodoo economics is. But right now 38 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 1: we have cut taxes and the economy is growing very strongly. 39 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 1: We had great GDP numbers last month. The economy is 40 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 1: growing above three right now, take your point, debate about 41 00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:57,359 Speaker 1: the vector there. But this is important and this goes 42 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 1: back to something that Michael McKee said to me. Yes 43 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:03,959 Speaker 1: and again, folks, Mike McKee will join me on radio 44 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 1: here on Bloomberg Surveillance through the morning. I've thrown with that. 45 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 1: And what's so interesting here is the lessons we learned 46 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 1: about cutting taxes to spur growth and maintain fiscal integrity. 47 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 1: That was something important to President Bush, important to President Reagan. 48 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: There was an experiment then, and under President Trump's leadership, 49 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 1: there's an experiment. Now. How's the experiment going? Can we 50 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 1: really grow our way out of a fiscal challenge? The 51 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 1: difference between twenty sixteen and the economy now in seventeen 52 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 1: and eighteen is remarkable. People thought that the economy could 53 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 1: not grow at higher than two percent, and it's on 54 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 1: track to grow at higher than three percent this year. 55 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: Business investment sword consumer confidence. Business confidence are up, business 56 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:02,840 Speaker 1: investment increased. Okay, I'll take your point, Diana. But what 57 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 1: is so important here is to understand that idea of 58 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 1: a twin deficit. My chart of the year is that 59 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 1: linkage of trade deficits something dear to President Trump, and 60 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 1: also the linkage of our fiscal deficit and the vector 61 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:16,920 Speaker 1: of that is getting back to the time of when 62 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:20,359 Speaker 1: you were very young of Reagan and Bush Senior. Do 63 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 1: we have a risk here of twin deficits into or 64 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 1: frankly beyond. It's up to Congress to put in place 65 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: proposals to cut spending, to cut the spending. And President 66 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: Trump proposed cutting spending. President George H. W. Bush proposed 67 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 1: cutting spending, and it's up to Congress to follow and 68 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:48,720 Speaker 1: make those spending cuts that presidents propose. Presidents propose, but 69 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 1: Congress has to in the last uh, Congress is responsible 70 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 1: for how much you spent. No, this is interesting, Diana 71 00:04:56,120 --> 00:05:09,160 Speaker 1: first got Roth, thank you so much joining us right 72 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 1: now in Washington to begin a discussion on this is 73 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 1: the right gentleman, and that as you know, since November 74 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:21,120 Speaker 1: on the death of George Bush, there's been all sorts 75 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 1: of worthy speak he isn't worthy in the communications of 76 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 1: the Republican Party. Run bun Jen has had a most interesting, 77 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 1: interesting career managing the message of Republicans. He's reached huge 78 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 1: acclaim for that, frankly by Democrats as well, and we're 79 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:41,720 Speaker 1: thrilled at run bu Jeen can join us this morning, Ron, 80 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:46,119 Speaker 1: What was your biggest challenge of communication for Republicans. Well, thanks, 81 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 1: it's great to hear you know, I would say that, 82 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 1: you know, the biggest challenges are getting the message out 83 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 1: in a consistent way, and that that is very challenging 84 00:05:56,760 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 1: when you have all kinds of elected officials in republic 85 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 1: Looking party who want to communicate different things, Getting them 86 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 1: unfocused on a single message to say the same things 87 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 1: at the same time can be very very difficult, and 88 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 1: especially in today's age. Obviously you have the President Trump 89 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 1: uh communicating via Twitter and really driving that driving that 90 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: message the way he wants to. And I think there's 91 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 1: a lot of Republicans that are are are figuring out 92 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 1: the direction of the Republican Party after after the election, 93 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 1: after the election, and the direction. Do you just assume 94 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:36,720 Speaker 1: that President Trump runs for a second term? Is that 95 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 1: just a given? Yes? I think he runs for a 96 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 1: second term, and I think he's going to give Democrats 97 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:45,159 Speaker 1: a run for their money. You know, if Joe Biden runs, 98 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:49,280 Speaker 1: he's really the only relatable, I think candidate at this 99 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:53,040 Speaker 1: point to Americans that could really uh that could really 100 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 1: give a good be a good sparring partner versus h 101 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: versus President Trump. And he's just a master of message 102 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:03,720 Speaker 1: in terms of activating people and getting people riled up 103 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:06,600 Speaker 1: and getting you know, harnessing that anger that's out there. 104 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 1: And I feel like there are so many Democrats right 105 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 1: now are running that they're going to dilute their own mess. 106 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 1: You were directly involved in the process and processes of 107 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 1: the last election. At the Rotunda today and and yesterday 108 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 1: and at the National Cathedral today there will not only 109 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 1: be the remains of the forty one president, his son, 110 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: the President with Mrs Bush yesterday. Some of those images 111 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 1: were wonderful, but also Jeb Bush, which is maybe the 112 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 1: more modern Bush and certainly the one that run Bungen 113 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 1: has bounced off of the most in recent years. Can 114 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 1: jet Bushes still run in the Republican Party? I think 115 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 1: more along the lines of UM on the local level, 116 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 1: potentially the state level. There are still opportunities out there, 117 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: you know, for for those voices UM. You know, there 118 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 1: is a polarization in politics, obviously on the left, and 119 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 1: the polarization and with even the Republican experiment. I would 120 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 1: say it's you know, I I would agree with that, 121 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 1: and I think that's going on in the Democratic party too. 122 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: You have this polarization on both sides. Um, that's that's 123 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 1: really pulling people to the left and right. There are 124 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 1: still opportunities in those moderate suburbs. Um that Republicans lost 125 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 1: um as a referendum on President Trump, UM to a 126 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 1: lack more moderate voices. I think in the future, and uh, 127 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 1: you know, I think that the Republican Party still remain strong. 128 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 1: We still have the White House, we still have the Senate. 129 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 1: We grew our numbers in the Senate, but as you 130 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:40,440 Speaker 1: mentioned earlier to me, you've got to take back some 131 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 1: of the losses. Where does that strategy come from? I'm 132 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 1: fascinated within what I think all of our listeners, whatever 133 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 1: their politics, they observe the president of the presidential tweets, 134 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:56,320 Speaker 1: the conferences, the gaggle around the helicopters he dashes. Forget 135 00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 1: about that communication strategy. There's got to be a communication 136 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:05,320 Speaker 1: strategy for Republicans to get away from his core constituency. 137 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 1: Does that strategy exist or where where's the colonel that's 138 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 1: not in the lunch room at the Hey Adams Hotel. 139 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:14,319 Speaker 1: Is Well, no, it's not. I mean, it's core constituency 140 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:18,560 Speaker 1: is though of voters right now? So you have to 141 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 1: figure out where can you get the other the margin, 142 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 1: where do you get the next that's your world, That's 143 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:27,959 Speaker 1: exactly that's our world, and we have to figure that out. 144 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 1: I mean, I think that there is a number of 145 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 1: things we should be doing. We need to be appealing 146 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:37,319 Speaker 1: much more to women, to white female voters, to to frankly, 147 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: be much more inclusive um in in our messaging. And 148 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 1: that has to happen at a consistent basis. Right now, 149 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 1: what we're doing and what the Democrats are doing is primary, 150 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: is driving messages. It feels like we're both both sides 151 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:54,319 Speaker 1: are running primary elections right now instead of the general, 152 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 1: and the general election feels like it doesn't really exist, 153 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:01,720 Speaker 1: meaning that we're driving messages and either side to motivate 154 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 1: our voters to the polls to try to outprimary each other. Okay, 155 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,320 Speaker 1: I love that phrase. That's a round bonding original out 156 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 1: primary each other. Guess what after that? You got elected enough, 157 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 1: for example, Ronald Reagan and I would suggest President Bush. 158 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:18,679 Speaker 1: Maybe they went right, but they moved to the center 159 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 1: as they moved to the general election. I'm right, those 160 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:25,120 Speaker 1: days are over right, Well, we'll see. I mean, you know, 161 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 1: every election is different. I mean, you know, when um, 162 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 1: uh President Bush lost to Bill Clinton. Uh, it was 163 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 1: over the economy, um, and it was over whether or 164 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:39,680 Speaker 1: not President Bush could relate to relate to uh, relate 165 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:41,719 Speaker 1: to Americans. And you started feeling out of touch. And 166 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 1: the President Clinton took advantage of that, and they called 167 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:47,760 Speaker 1: it it's it's what is it? It's the economy stupid? 168 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 1: Was the was the line. And so I think, you know, 169 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: and within a year or two, I mean, within a year, 170 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:57,200 Speaker 1: we have to start a consistent message that is much 171 00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 1: more appealing or else it's going to be just another 172 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:03,720 Speaker 1: primary election. Well it's just another primary election and just 173 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 1: another primary process. But the process is time is different 174 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:09,680 Speaker 1: from K Street and Ice Street and the other you know, 175 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:14,800 Speaker 1: the secret dark corridors out by Reagan Airport. There's offices 176 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 1: of Republicans trying to figure out the primary system inform 177 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 1: our audience. How does that that ballet start and why 178 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,319 Speaker 1: is it different from the last time around? What I've 179 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,280 Speaker 1: learned as New Hampshire is not as important as it 180 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 1: used to be. I think that this that's right. I 181 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 1: think um that you know, we start out with with 182 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:35,960 Speaker 1: a slight advantage in Ohio and Florida because we have 183 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:39,560 Speaker 1: Republican governorships there. You know, we just won a very 184 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: divisive election in Florida. That means we have the infrastructure 185 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:46,320 Speaker 1: of that state party apparatus to help us with those 186 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:51,319 Speaker 1: primaries for that primary system. But the primary states are changing, Um, 187 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:54,400 Speaker 1: you know, we have we have states like North Carolina 188 00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 1: that's that feels like it's changing. Um, you know, other 189 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:02,280 Speaker 1: states like Arizona for instance. That's obviously okay if if 190 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 1: North Carolina discovers Connor Lamb's plural the gentleman from northwest 191 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 1: north southwest rather of Pittsburgh, those kind of Democrats. Republicans 192 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 1: have to be different, don't they. You know, I think 193 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 1: of Austin Powers in that movie Behave. Republicans have to 194 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:24,160 Speaker 1: behave if they're up against a more traditional Scoop Jackson Democrats. 195 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:27,440 Speaker 1: I think it really depends on each district, in each message, 196 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 1: you know, and and the candidates themselves, um, you know, 197 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 1: and what what's going on in that state and district. 198 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 1: I mean that that's the thing now right now, it's 199 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:37,959 Speaker 1: a it's a referendum on President Trump, and it will 200 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 1: be a presidential election. But on the local level, they're 201 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:44,959 Speaker 1: going to have to continue to to um to keep 202 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 1: the Trump based enthusiastic while trying to reach out to 203 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:53,079 Speaker 1: other voters. And that's a difficult needle to thread. Run Bundie, 204 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 1: Let's leave it there. Thank you so much, greatly appreciate 205 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: the perspective here of a gentleman in communications for the 206 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:01,960 Speaker 1: Republican Ron Bundin. Thank you, so thank you very much. 207 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:16,199 Speaker 1: Uh this morning I said to someone a few days ago, 208 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 1: would you just find the admiral? And of course at 209 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:21,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg surveillance there can be only one admiral, and that 210 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 1: is James Travidez. Of course with a Fletcher School at 211 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 1: Tufts University. Admiral, we are thrilled to have you with 212 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 1: us today. UM. I was reading about Admiral the Grumming 213 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 1: torpedo bomber of World War Two and the basic aeronautics 214 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 1: of what President Bush flew was It drove like a truck. 215 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:47,839 Speaker 1: I mean it was a little different back then, wasn't 216 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:51,839 Speaker 1: it It was? And this is all we say fly 217 00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 1: by wire. I mean this is nothing electronic obviously, just 218 00:13:56,160 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 1: some basic hydraulics. Truck is a good example. It's like 219 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:03,320 Speaker 1: a truck made by the Soviet Union. I mean, this 220 00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 1: thing just banged through the air. He was so proud 221 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:11,080 Speaker 1: of it and was such an extraordinary naval hero and 222 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 1: we all miss him so deeply. I knew him reasonably well, 223 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:16,680 Speaker 1: wrote some speeches for him over the years, and Tom 224 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 1: when I was the Supreme AI Commander of NATO, he 225 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 1: was one of the biggest supporters of NATO. We're going 226 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 1: to miss that, gentleman. Well, that is there. I mean, 227 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 1: we got eight ways to go now, Michael mckeena jump in. 228 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 1: But but this is so important. We saw it with 229 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg interview with Mr Porschenko yesterday on Ukraine John 230 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:40,160 Speaker 1: Mersheimer Chicago talking about maybe we overreached? Did President Bush 231 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:43,720 Speaker 1: ever suggested his writings are directly to you, Admiral, that 232 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 1: maybe we overreached too much in our expansion of NATO. Nope, 233 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 1: he was someone who was rock solid on that. Of 234 00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 1: course he lived those years. Uh. And also we need 235 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 1: to mention still living the Secretary of State in those days, 236 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 1: James Baker, who be featured prominently in the funeral today 237 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 1: you'll see his face often. He was one of Bush 238 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 1: His closest friends. The two of them really created this 239 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 1: new world. And I think despite all the concern and 240 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:17,480 Speaker 1: claim that perhaps we pushed Russia into a corner. I 241 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 1: just don't see it that way. Historically, no NATO tanks 242 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 1: tom ever went rolling into Warsaw or Bucharest to force 243 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 1: those countries to join NATO. But there were plenty of 244 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 1: Soviet tanks back in the day that rolled in there. 245 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 1: Those nations wanted to be in NATO were lucky they're 246 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 1: in NATO. One of the things that he is known for, 247 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 1: if you are a nerd enough looking at these things, 248 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 1: is the way he redesigned the National Security Council and 249 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 1: set up Brent Skokroft as a sort of honest broker. Uh. 250 00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:54,200 Speaker 1: You remember in the Nixon years, before that happened, you 251 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 1: had the big fights between the Henry kissing your faction 252 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 1: and whoever was at State at the time, at George 253 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 1: Schultz in the Reagan administration, UM, that really made a difference. 254 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 1: He had a George H. W. Bush came to office 255 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 1: with a specific idea of how foreign policy should be run. 256 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 1: He did and the way he did foreign policy and 257 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 1: defense policy and international diplomacy were a direct reflection of 258 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 1: his character, which focused on team building. Uh. You know, 259 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 1: as he would say, there's no eye in the word 260 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 1: team t E a M. And it was a reflection 261 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:39,720 Speaker 1: of his own athleticism coming and playing on great baseball teams, 262 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 1: and his personality and the way he was raised. And 263 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 1: he wanted a Lieutenant General Brent scot Croft to be 264 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 1: the National Security Advisor because Brent, who's still alive in 265 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 1: his nineties, marvelous gentleman. UH was the embodiment of no 266 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 1: one of us is as smart as all of us 267 00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 1: thinking together. That was the hard of the NSC under 268 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 1: President Bush the first and it was well run. Did 269 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,879 Speaker 1: he leave it in as good as shape as he founded? 270 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:14,199 Speaker 1: A President Bill Clinton's first term not particularly successful from 271 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 1: a foreign policy standpoint, And then you had a lot 272 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 1: of the former Bush one forty one alumni end up 273 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:25,680 Speaker 1: in Bush forty three's cabinet, and people are looking at, 274 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 1: you know, the legacy of George W. Bush in the 275 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 1: Middle East and wondering how did how do we go wrong? 276 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:35,680 Speaker 1: From father to son. Part of it can be explained 277 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:39,359 Speaker 1: by nine eleven and the extraordinary pressure that put on 278 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:44,159 Speaker 1: that administration, UH, the Bush forty three administration. Part of 279 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:48,359 Speaker 1: it was personalities. Um I was at the time working 280 00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 1: directly for Secretary of Defense Don Rumsfeld strong personality, Vice 281 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: President Dick Janey's strong personality, National Security Advisor Condi Rice, 282 00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 1: who I think tried very much to followed the sccroft model. 283 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 1: But in those years, those were big personality. We were 284 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 1: in a war, and I think it was a very 285 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 1: different time for the nation. So if you want to 286 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:14,399 Speaker 1: look for a model, it is definitely Bushart one. If 287 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 1: you're just joining us. James Trevidus with us, he is, 288 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 1: of course with a Fletcher School, former Admiral of the 289 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 1: United States Navy on the special day for Bloomberg Surveillance. 290 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:26,360 Speaker 1: Our coverage from Washington and from New York, this day 291 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:31,480 Speaker 1: of memory and services at the National Cathedral for George 292 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,199 Speaker 1: Herbert Walker Bush. Mike, your questions are so good and 293 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:38,439 Speaker 1: so well informed. I want you to continue with the Admiral, Michael, 294 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 1: pick it up again. Please let me as long as 295 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:44,160 Speaker 1: we have you here and we have an admiral, let 296 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 1: me just ask you something about what's going on today. 297 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:53,000 Speaker 1: The whole US China trade issue gets caught up in 298 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 1: the larger U S. China relationship, and we saw and 299 00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:58,879 Speaker 1: this didn't get a lot of publicity, but during the 300 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 1: g twenty summit Argentina, the US sent a destroyer through 301 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:09,440 Speaker 1: the South China Sea into territory. China is claiming how 302 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:14,400 Speaker 1: dangerous is that situation? How how much of a conflict 303 00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 1: do we really have with the Chinese over this? Because 304 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 1: people are talking about, well, if if Trump fails whatever, 305 00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 1: we can have a new Cold War. Is that what 306 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 1: we're facing the kind of thing we went through with 307 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 1: the Soviet Union? Or is it a different kind of challenge. 308 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:30,000 Speaker 1: I think it'll end up ultimately being a different kind 309 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 1: of challenge, Michael, but Um, we have tactical challenges with 310 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:40,240 Speaker 1: China in tariffs, trade, intellectual property, cyber conflict. Those are 311 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:42,680 Speaker 1: things I think we can negotiate our way through, and 312 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:45,639 Speaker 1: I think we will. The one I worry about is 313 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:49,200 Speaker 1: the uber strategic challenge is in fact, the South China 314 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 1: Sea enormous body of water size of the Caribbean and 315 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 1: Gulf of Mexico combined, full of hydrocarbons. China claims it 316 00:19:56,600 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: in its entirety as territorial sea. It's a posterous claim. 317 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,440 Speaker 1: The United States and our allies are pushing back on it, 318 00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:08,119 Speaker 1: not only in international courts where it's been rejected, but 319 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 1: also operationally your point, driving our ships right through these 320 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:15,200 Speaker 1: claim territorial sees. I think that's gonna be a tough 321 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,640 Speaker 1: one to negotiate, but no, in the end, I think 322 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,040 Speaker 1: we'll find a way to avoid stumbling into a full 323 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 1: blown cold war. I've got about five more minutes of 324 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,719 Speaker 1: good questions on Robert Caplan's Asia Cauldron, but we'll have 325 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:29,240 Speaker 1: to leave it there with a good admiral at Mr Venus, 326 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 1: we are thrilled that you are with us today. Thank 327 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 1: you so much. He is a tough university and there 328 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:44,000 Speaker 1: Fletcher School as well. Michael McKee with me. This is 329 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 1: Tom Keene and Washington, Michael McKee and New York on 330 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 1: this most special day for the nation morning for the 331 00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 1: memory and services of George Herbert Walker Bush with us, 332 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,840 Speaker 1: not William Hoagland. Bill Hoglan, who is truly one of 333 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 1: the nation's experts on our debt and deficit with the 334 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:06,399 Speaker 1: Bipartisan at Council. Bill Hoagland. Um, we go back to 335 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 1: Henry Clay in eighteen fifty two, and then with the 336 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:13,480 Speaker 1: finishing of the Capitol in eighteen sixty and eighteen sixty eight, 337 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:18,359 Speaker 1: Abraham Lincoln and Thaddya Stevens and on to President Reagan. 338 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:22,879 Speaker 1: President for John McCain on August thirty one of this year, 339 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 1: and now another president lying in state in the rotunda. 340 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 1: You visited the rotunda two days ago, and you had 341 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,680 Speaker 1: the privilege of visiting in the quiet early morning. What 342 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:38,399 Speaker 1: was it like being in the rotunda? Very moving, calm. I. 343 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,159 Speaker 1: Of course, it's spent many years in the Capitol, I 344 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:44,520 Speaker 1: worked in the Senate, I spent many a day walking 345 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:48,879 Speaker 1: through the rotunda. But to visit the rotunda with the 346 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:52,359 Speaker 1: president lying in state, uh and in the quiet of 347 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 1: that early morning hour, um is was brought back a 348 00:21:56,560 --> 00:22:00,320 Speaker 1: lot of memories in my affection for the for the president, 349 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:06,639 Speaker 1: overcome me peas honest John meetscham Will you eulogize today? 350 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,800 Speaker 1: Of course, his one volume is considered definitive tell Us 351 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 1: of the Fiscal George H. W. Bush, I think it's 352 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:16,919 Speaker 1: a bit of a mystery and a bit of confusion 353 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:22,359 Speaker 1: over what is fiscal beliefs really were? Well, I do 354 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 1: think that clearly uh uh. The when he came into 355 00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:32,399 Speaker 1: office to get the nomination, there was some concern that 356 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 1: this was a liberal Republican, Eastern State Republican who was 357 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,360 Speaker 1: not to be trusted on some of the conservative issues 358 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 1: of control and not raising taxes. And so of course 359 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,879 Speaker 1: his big his statement down in New Orleans and on 360 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:51,280 Speaker 1: the getting the nomination read my lips came back to 361 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:55,959 Speaker 1: haunt him because when we went into the we had 362 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,720 Speaker 1: a number of issues facing as we had savings and 363 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 1: loan meltdown, We had a number of problems that Congress 364 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:05,920 Speaker 1: is being controlled by Democrats, and we negotiated a budget agreement. 365 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:11,200 Speaker 1: In it was a budget agreement that did required the 366 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:16,879 Speaker 1: negotiations and compromise, and in that compromise UH taxes were raised, 367 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:19,960 Speaker 1: but it was a five billion dollar deficit reduction. He did. 368 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 1: He was concerned and his staff were concerned about the deficits. 369 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:25,679 Speaker 1: They would have preferred to have controlled it on the 370 00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:29,040 Speaker 1: spending side, but we were working with a Democratic Congress 371 00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 1: and so he had to negotiate. UM I had the 372 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:35,879 Speaker 1: privilege and honor of attending the twenty fifth anniversary of 373 00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:41,640 Speaker 1: the President at his library and in college station back 374 00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:45,879 Speaker 1: in April. Um As I was getting ready to go 375 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,760 Speaker 1: onto the stage, the President and came up behind me 376 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:52,000 Speaker 1: and his wheelchair and pulled me on my UM shirt 377 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 1: TI or my coach Kai and said to me something 378 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,320 Speaker 1: about how I was responsible for him being a one 379 00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:01,160 Speaker 1: term president, because that negociated to how much of course 380 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,439 Speaker 1: he was kidding he was He was wonderful and working 381 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:08,920 Speaker 1: with the staff. And I will always remember that last 382 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:13,200 Speaker 1: direct encounter I had with the president. It. Uh, it's 383 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:19,480 Speaker 1: quaint to remember now that Uh, in fiscal nineteen ninety, 384 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,720 Speaker 1: the year that you put together this agreement of the 385 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:27,840 Speaker 1: federal budget, deficit was two dollars and it's going to 386 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 1: be this year at trillion dollars, and and everybody was 387 00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:35,800 Speaker 1: panicked about two hundred and twenty one billion dollars. Uh. 388 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 1: Things seemed to have changed. It was, I guess to 389 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,440 Speaker 1: get back kind of at what Tom was saying. Uh. 390 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,960 Speaker 1: When he ran for president in nineteen eighty, he derided 391 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,960 Speaker 1: the idea of tax cuts paying for themselves as voodoo economics, 392 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,880 Speaker 1: and he said, you know, read my lips, no new taxes. 393 00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 1: But he agreed rather readily to revenue enhancers. As the 394 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,679 Speaker 1: statement that they put out at the time said, um, 395 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 1: what what did he really think about deficit spending and taxes? 396 00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:13,679 Speaker 1: This was before the whole Republican tax pledge, and that's right. Thing. Well, 397 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,359 Speaker 1: one thing I would say was that like that he 398 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 1: that that agreement was the beginning. Of course, yes he 399 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 1: lost his loss that his term of office at one 400 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,639 Speaker 1: term office, but with but with Clinton coming in, there 401 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 1: was a agreement which is trictly a partisan agreement on 402 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,720 Speaker 1: the Democratic side, which and then there was a nine agreement. 403 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:40,159 Speaker 1: Uh and I would argue, and the agreement brought us 404 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,359 Speaker 1: to a balanced budget, which I had on our working 405 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,960 Speaker 1: on it. I do think that he did start at that, 406 00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 1: even though it was a cost him, cost him his 407 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,800 Speaker 1: job as a one term president, he did start the 408 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 1: process of really focusing in the subsequent to the seven agreement. 409 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:02,520 Speaker 1: After we reached balanced budget, then things kind of went 410 00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 1: to went in the wrong direction. But I think I 411 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:11,080 Speaker 1: think he was pragmatic about deficits. I think he believed 412 00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,359 Speaker 1: deficits mattered. I believe that he thought that they should 413 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 1: be controlled. I believe his focus was primarily on the 414 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 1: spending side, but overall he was pragmatic and knowing that 415 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,959 Speaker 1: to reach that agreement, to try to reduce those deficits, 416 00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,440 Speaker 1: we had to focus not just on the spending side, 417 00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:32,080 Speaker 1: we had to focus on revenues. To excuse me, Bill 418 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,879 Speaker 1: Bill Hogdon with us with a bipartisan Council can't say 419 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,560 Speaker 1: enough about his abilities on the debt and the deficits bill. 420 00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,159 Speaker 1: Can I ask the dumb question of the day, is 421 00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:44,680 Speaker 1: there any question? Is there any evidence we can actually 422 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:53,480 Speaker 1: quote unquote cut spending? UM? Well, I think there, I 423 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:55,879 Speaker 1: thought one pest to say, yes, there has to be 424 00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:59,159 Speaker 1: some hope here that we can look at the UH 425 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,080 Speaker 1: four trillion dollars at the federal government spends and surely 426 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:05,560 Speaker 1: we can find areas within that that we can control. UH. 427 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 1: I do think we have to focus on those programs 428 00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:11,520 Speaker 1: that are the most most difficult politically, and that are 429 00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,760 Speaker 1: the entitlement programs, whether it be so SECAREDY or Medicare 430 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:19,280 Speaker 1: medic it those are not politically popular UH programs to address. 431 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 1: In fact, our current president and said they were off 432 00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,800 Speaker 1: the table. I don't know how we can control deficits 433 00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 1: long term on the spending if we don't realize that 434 00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:29,639 Speaker 1: we have to focus on on those programs are manager 435 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 1: for the future. At the same time, I think that 436 00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:37,760 Speaker 1: coming back to the President George Bush, George Bush, I 437 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:41,080 Speaker 1: do think that he felt that you had to have 438 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:45,080 Speaker 1: a compromise here in a democratic system with UH and 439 00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,639 Speaker 1: that meant that you had to focus not just on 440 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:49,760 Speaker 1: the spending side. We had to focus on revenues. If 441 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:51,679 Speaker 1: you do both together, I think then you have more 442 00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:56,359 Speaker 1: likelihood of getting agreement to do the spending side. Um, politicians, 443 00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,680 Speaker 1: if not smarter, more aware of euphemism. So the idea 444 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,879 Speaker 1: of campaigning for revenue enhancement is probably off the table. 445 00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:09,679 Speaker 1: But I'm wondering. You know, you're we're gonna see if 446 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 1: the deficit keeps going up. Uh, We're gonna see somebody 447 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,719 Speaker 1: trying to campaign on bringing down the deficit. But how 448 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:19,880 Speaker 1: do they do that? And I'm wondering in two thousand twenty, um, 449 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:22,960 Speaker 1: Donald Trump is going to want to campaign on the 450 00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 1: idea of rolling back his tax cuts. So how how 451 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,200 Speaker 1: do you how do you make the case now because 452 00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:33,119 Speaker 1: we're not seeing bond yells get out of control because 453 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:37,040 Speaker 1: of the deficite. Well, again, I think there are two 454 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,200 Speaker 1: things that hapnic Leon Panetta when he was leaving office, 455 00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:43,720 Speaker 1: and there are two ways to control the deficit. One 456 00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 1: was through a crisis and the other was through leadership. 457 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,600 Speaker 1: And unfortunately I don't see the leadership in at either. 458 00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,680 Speaker 1: Into Pennsylvania Avenue. I said that with respect to vote, 459 00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,240 Speaker 1: and so I'm afraid that at some point there that 460 00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:00,320 Speaker 1: there might be a crisis, and then that crisis comes 461 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 1: with that will force their attention to deal with this 462 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:05,440 Speaker 1: and a serious pamer that they're not dealing with now. 463 00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,040 Speaker 1: William Holden, thank you so much for being with us 464 00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:12,640 Speaker 1: today's senior Vice president the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington. 465 00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:15,760 Speaker 1: Were just wonderful perspective there on the reach of the 466 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:19,160 Speaker 1: state of our fiscal economics from the time of President 467 00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 1: Bush two of the president as well. Thanks for listening 468 00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:32,000 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews 469 00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:37,240 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. 470 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You 471 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,560 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.