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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: We're throwing in song.

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Speaker 4: I'm sitting up to cash touch. We see most gambles

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Speaker 4: when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible being bank, small bank, I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to pa.

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Speaker 4: And we are underway. Welcome into the NFL Round Table

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Speaker 4: for week seven. Brendan glass Sheen and the host chair

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Speaker 4: this week, joined by Brandon Anderson, one of our NFL

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Speaker 4: contributors at Action Network and co host of the Favorites podcast.

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Speaker 4: Mister Simon Hunter is joining us this week. All right, chance,

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Speaker 4: let's dive in. If you're nude around table. This is

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Speaker 4: a debriefing. It's therapy to make sense of what the

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Speaker 4: hell is going on. I think most of America, the

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Speaker 4: world needs therapy after watching the referee side show in

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Speaker 4: Monday night football because good God, watching paint dry to

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Speaker 4: try and get through that football game last night. Anyway,

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Speaker 4: speaking of the Jets, they were in action last night.

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Speaker 4: Breaking news this morning, Brandon, how about that consecutive weeks

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Speaker 4: on Roundtable we get some breaking news to react to.

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Speaker 4: DeVante Adams Brandon Anderson traded to the New York Jets

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Speaker 4: for a conditional third round pick, So Vegas does cut bait.

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Speaker 4: Schefter had the report last week they might not get

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Speaker 4: something done. Now they get it done. It could turn

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Speaker 4: into a second Adams with Aaron Rodgers in New York.

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Speaker 4: Does this move the needle for you? You've already invested

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Speaker 4: in the Jets. Are you gonna do it again?

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Speaker 1: I don't think so. So obviously it makes the Jets

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Speaker 1: offense a little better. Receivers and the weapons. I had

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Speaker 1: them both around like league average, up to top five

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Speaker 1: probably now. So obviously that's good. You want devant datams

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Speaker 1: with Garrett Wilson, that's all good. The problem is, I

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Speaker 1: think the passing game was really the big problem here.

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Speaker 1: Defensive line is still bad the way that they're playing right.

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Speaker 1: The run game is not good. Tom Downey only wants

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Speaker 1: to run the football, and I actually think maybe this

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Speaker 1: ends up being a net negative because Davante you gotta

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Speaker 1: pay him, so who's not getting paid a Sonoretick. I

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Speaker 1: think I'd rather have a Sono reratick here. The pass

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Speaker 1: rush is what the Jets needed more, I think than

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Speaker 1: the receiver. So I think If that's the deal we're

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Speaker 1: really making here, I think it might be a net

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Speaker 1: negative for the Jets. I definitely can't go investing in

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Speaker 1: them right now.

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Speaker 4: Simon your thoughts on this, that's a great point bringing

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Speaker 4: up Reddick up Brandon, because uh yeah, with Reddick, now

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Speaker 4: with Drew Rosenhaus, they're not his deal isn't done and

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Speaker 4: that yes, that's the other part of the story, is

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Speaker 4: that the Jets are going to pay Adam's full salary signment.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: The old saying it's better than nothing, I guess is

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Speaker 5: the truth theory, right, It's better than them doing nothing.

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Speaker 5: But this is what a bad ownership does during the season.

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Speaker 5: They start panicking, they start making moves, and you know,

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Speaker 5: to me, their biggest issue right now is the kicker.

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Speaker 5: They lost the Denver game because of a kicker. They

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Speaker 5: lost last night partially because of their kicker. Is that

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Speaker 5: really going to fix all their problems get to new kicker. No,

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Speaker 5: Like Brandon just said, it's they can't stop the run

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Speaker 5: right now. Their offensive line is really bad at pass blocking.

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Speaker 5: So you know, for me, I'm happy for them. I

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Speaker 5: think it's gonna obviously be an improvement to this team.

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Speaker 5: But how much of one. I don't really know. It's

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Speaker 5: hard to say right now, but when looking at this

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Speaker 5: going down the rest of the way their schedule, it's like, man,

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Speaker 5: they've dropped such winnable games here. It's like, eventually it's

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Speaker 5: gonna come the other wind. They'll start winning these close games.

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Speaker 5: But I think we can all agree Rogers is just

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Speaker 5: not the Rogers we know and love from those MVP years, right,

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Speaker 5: He's just on the decline. He's inconsistent. That's that's really

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Speaker 5: been the claring issue for me. So if Adams comes

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Speaker 5: in and fixes some of those inconsistencies, yeah, it's a

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Speaker 5: great move for this team. Like, it's not my money.

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Speaker 5: Same with the fans, so who really cares. But at

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Speaker 5: the end of the day, it just seems like.

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Speaker 2: A desperate move by a desperate team.

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Speaker 4: He's been historically not good. Aaron Rodgers playing from behind

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Speaker 4: too in the minute they went down, that was just

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Speaker 4: it's bad news. It was the same case in Green

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Speaker 4: Bay playoff game, regular season game. Think of the amount

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Speaker 4: of games we watched in primetime Sunday night, Monday night,

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Speaker 4: excellent Monday night quarterback. Historically, when they go up big

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Speaker 4: on a Chicago early or even Minnesota. Okay, real quick

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Speaker 4: follow up, Brandon, then we'll move on. So DeVante Adams

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Speaker 4: is now worth four points to the spread for Sunday

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Speaker 4: Night Football because the Jets are one and a half

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Speaker 4: point favorites now as opposed to two and a half

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Speaker 4: point dogs.

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Speaker 1: What I mean, We're just we're just trying to balance

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Speaker 1: the books here a little bit, right, We're just trying

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Speaker 1: to get some money onto the other side of things.

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Speaker 1: Obviously we're gonna overreact a little bit to this news.

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Speaker 1: I guess you know I gave out the hot rate

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Speaker 1: on the under here. I guess I don't love that

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Speaker 1: so much. But Tamont Adams is not moving the total line. Like,

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Speaker 1: come on, let's be real about this. I don't even

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Speaker 1: know how many plays are we going to get from

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Speaker 1: Devonte right away? Like we're gonna put him in on

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Speaker 1: the red zone packages and the timing routes with Rogers,

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Speaker 1: But I don't know to your point, we just said,

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Speaker 1: Brandon about Rogers playing from behind. So Aaron Rodgers to me,

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Speaker 1: has always had the full package, right like as talented

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Speaker 1: and tell Patrick Mahomes existed about as talented as we

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Speaker 1: saw as an NFL quarterback. The problem to me has

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Speaker 1: always been his conservative mindset. He's not willing to take

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Speaker 1: a risk to give his guys a chance. And if

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Speaker 1: you have DeVante Adams and Garrett Wilson, now you've got

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Speaker 1: to do that. The Jets offense needs you to just

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Speaker 1: take some chances. Throw it up there. Davante is out

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Speaker 1: there somewhere. Maybe Garrett'll make a play. I almost would

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Speaker 1: rather like look at like a Baker Mayfield or a

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Speaker 1: genus sort of mindset, just like Yolo. Give my guys

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Speaker 1: a chance. Rogers, I think playing from behind when he

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Speaker 1: just tries to throw the ball away, keep it moving.

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Speaker 3: That's not the way you.

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Speaker 1: Come back from behind in the NFL, certainly not in

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Speaker 1: the modern era.

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Speaker 2: Err, just real quick, a little bird.

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Speaker 5: He told me it might be Russell Wilson this week,

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Speaker 5: so that might be why that lines moved so much.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, a little more breaking news here on Roundtable from

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Speaker 4: Simon Hunter of the Favorite podcast. Thank you very much, Okay,

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Speaker 4: and yeah, the totals only shut up one point from

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Speaker 4: thirty seven and a half to thirty eight and a half. Simon,

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Speaker 4: I'll kick it to you for so let's go into

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Speaker 4: the normal. First question, will normally do with the breaking

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Speaker 4: news on Adam to wander to hit that first. Just

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Speaker 4: your biggest takeaway from week six.

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Speaker 5: Biggest takeaway, uh Man Still impressed about these rookie qbs,

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Speaker 5: Like even though bow Knicks had a bad game, at

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Speaker 5: the end of the game, his team was pretty much

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Speaker 5: back into that game while being down, you know, at

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Speaker 5: one point more than double digits. I couldn't believe that

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Speaker 5: bow Knicks and that Denver Deam got back in that game.

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Speaker 2: And same with Washington.

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Speaker 5: I thought Washington was gonna get rolled it. Just that

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Speaker 5: line was fishy all week. Last week at the Ravens,

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Speaker 5: I eventually took the Commanders because it was like, okay,

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Speaker 5: this is plus seven, At what point does this line

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Speaker 5: move too much? And ended up just being a push

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Speaker 5: and it was a lucky push because the kicked a

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Speaker 5: field go at the end of the game. But really

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Speaker 5: impressed by Daniels back to back multiple weeks now of

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Speaker 5: him being really smart moving his feed well in the pocket.

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Speaker 5: And of course Kayleb Williams, who's still plus two twenty

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Speaker 5: to win Rookie of the Year even though he had four

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Speaker 5: touchdown passes in that game. I think Jane Dalis has

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Speaker 5: four touchdown passes on the season, So it's just Williams

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Speaker 5: has been really impressive. Now we all know, right, Williams

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Speaker 5: just played a really easy schedule, so I'm trying to

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Speaker 5: not overreact to it too much.

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Speaker 2: But in my lifetime, I've never seen a.

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Speaker 5: Bears quarterback with his type of footwork, his type of

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Speaker 5: movement in the pocket, even going back to j culor

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Speaker 5: Jay Color was so sloppy half games. Most games he

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Speaker 5: could have one or two amazing throws, but his footwork

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Speaker 5: was always terrible. He always take bad sacks. So that

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Speaker 5: to me, now that we're three six weeks, I thought

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Speaker 5: eventually these guys would start falling off.

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Speaker 2: Jayde and Daniels and Williams.

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Speaker 5: They're still playing really well, so they're going to eventually

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Speaker 5: they'll hit that rookie wall.

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Speaker 2: All quarterbacks do in their rookie year.

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Speaker 5: The only one we saw that didn't was cig and

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Speaker 5: we never see anything like that what we saw last

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Speaker 5: year with CJ. So just really impressed right now these

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Speaker 5: rookie quarterbacks. And we'll see what we get with Drake

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Speaker 5: Many moving forward here. But in his first game, he

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Speaker 5: looked like a quarterback making his first start in the League.

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Speaker 4: Brandon Anderson, one of our co hosts of the Sunday

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Speaker 4: Night recap episodes, and we had a chance to chat

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Speaker 4: not too long ago, anything that you've been able to

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Speaker 4: break down and now like take your teeth into since

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Speaker 4: Sunday Night.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think just the favorites dominating. Like we talked

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Speaker 1: about in Week six, that was a big switch from

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Speaker 1: a lot of underdogs so far this season. And then

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Speaker 1: to me, the biggest takeaway is something that we're gonna

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Speaker 1: dig into a little bit more in one of our

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Speaker 1: questions coming up. I thought a Hutchinson injury. I thought

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Speaker 1: to me, that was the biggest like title moving needle.

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Speaker 1: So we'll get into that later. But tough loss to

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Speaker 1: lose him in a game that they were literally toying

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Speaker 1: with the Cowboys like that. They did not take Dallas

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Speaker 1: seriously at all. They're they're putting out Dan Skipper, They're

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Speaker 1: they're running like passes like screenplay to Piney Sewell, like

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Speaker 1: they're treating them like a plaything. And then unfortunately you

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Speaker 1: get that injury near the end, and I think that's

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Speaker 1: gonna play a big role in the NFC looking forward.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, stay tuned for Defensive Player of the year looks

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Speaker 4: later on in the roundtable discussion. So to Brandon's point,

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Speaker 4: this week was for the favorites Roadue faves nine to zero,

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Speaker 4: best since the merger. Per Evan Abrams, our director of research,

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Speaker 4: over the last four seasons, favorites are now sixty seven

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Speaker 4: forty nine and one against the number in weeks five

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Speaker 4: and six. That's fifty eight percent. But they have a

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Speaker 4: losing record every other week from week one through week eleven,

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Speaker 4: with a combined forty four percent ats Simon, is the

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Speaker 4: market over correcting for early season results in weeks five

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Speaker 4: and six or what's happening here?

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Speaker 5: I think eventu of the books are gonna get caught.

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Speaker 5: But even when I talked to bookmakers, they can't believe

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Speaker 5: this past weekend. I mean, every game that could have

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Speaker 5: gone wrong for them basically did it was. It was

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Speaker 5: one of the worst weekends. I'm assuming to them since

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Speaker 5: it's become legalized in America. Right, Like any bookmaker I

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Speaker 5: talked to just got killed because everyone parlays and teases

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Speaker 5: those teams, right, Everyone just loves taking these favorites, especially

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Speaker 5: when they're short favorites.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 5: It wasn't like there were big numbers a lot of

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Speaker 5: these were minus three and a half, minus four or

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Speaker 5: you know, it started with the early games, but even

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Speaker 5: last night, right that that was a huge win for

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Speaker 5: the public once again. So yeah, I've I think I

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Speaker 5: haven't even put it out there. It's never happened before.

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Speaker 5: Road favorites went nine to oh against the spread, and

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Speaker 5: you know, is it better. I know it's gonna come

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Speaker 5: back around, so obviously I'm gonna guess start getting value

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Speaker 5: this upcoming week on a lot.

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Speaker 2: Of these home dogs. But yeah, we knew the public

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Speaker 2: was adventure can have a good week.

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Speaker 5: It's just it's just the way it is that I

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Speaker 5: think it was gonna be like that, no, and that

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Speaker 5: that that was so tough where it's like in our

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Speaker 5: contest me and chat, we really needed a winning week,

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Speaker 5: and I tried to force in as many favorites as

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Speaker 5: I could, but we just historically like betting dogs, and

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Speaker 5: we got burned by these home dogs this past week.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Evan notes rode favorite nine of those straight up

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Speaker 4: and against the number in week six twelve and oh

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Speaker 4: straight up and against the spread over the last two weeks.

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Speaker 4: So that's uh, that's mind blowing. Even when we discuss

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Speaker 4: teasers that one of the rules of thumb, don't tease

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Speaker 4: through zero. That that's working for people if they've been

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Speaker 4: doing that teasing through zero and they really haven't had

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Speaker 4: to it. Yes, in that sense, Brandon your reaction to

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Speaker 4: weeks five and six being really good for favorites.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So it's really interesting if you look at the

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Speaker 1: last four years in the bet Labs data here. So

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Speaker 1: Week one and two are very heavy underdog weeks, like

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Speaker 1: the biggest of the season. I think we kind of

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Speaker 1: know that too. You allays come out, we don't know

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Speaker 1: about the teams. Everyone's over confident on what they thought

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Speaker 1: before the season. Bet the underdogs early. Then weeks three

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Speaker 1: through six, it starts to move toward the favorites a

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Speaker 1: little more each week, and Week six has been the

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Speaker 1: peak sixty three percent against the spread the last four years.

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Speaker 1: Then it hits that the favorites have their week.

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Speaker 3: I think this week was.

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Speaker 1: An outlier even there, and then back to the dogs

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Speaker 1: week seven through ten.

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Speaker 3: We just go right back that direction. So a little theory, maybe.

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Speaker 1: We know that preseason's kind of out now, right, so

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Speaker 1: we're getting some preseason to September football from a lot

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Speaker 1: of these teams. We're seeing a lot of these good

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Speaker 1: teams kind of round into form a month into the season,

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Speaker 1: so this is a little bit them rounding in the

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Speaker 1: forum three four, five weeks in. Now we hit that

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Speaker 1: and then the other thing too. We know homefield advantage

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Speaker 1: is not what it has been in the NFL. I

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Speaker 1: think the fact that all these favorites were on the

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Speaker 1: road probably helped the favorites this week as far as

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Speaker 1: covering spreads, because you get all these minus three three

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Speaker 1: and a half spreads rather than at home do the

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Speaker 1: home flip and suddenly they're over a touchdown. They're probably

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Speaker 1: not covering the spread anymore because home field's probably not

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Speaker 1: swinging it that much. So I think a little bit

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Speaker 1: of luck and play, but I do think there's something

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Speaker 1: they remember here next year that Okay, Week one and two,

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Speaker 1: back to the underdogs, but don't forget the favorites do

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Speaker 1: kind of slide back a little bit before we move

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Speaker 1: back the other direction.

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Speaker 4: Okay, good stuff. I'll kick it to the Minnesota Vikings

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Speaker 4: fan himself for this next one. First, the NFC North

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Speaker 4: teams rank one through four in the NFL in point differential.

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Speaker 4: Minnesota plus sixty three Detroit plus sixty, the Bears, winners

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Speaker 4: of three in a row plus forty seven, and then

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Speaker 4: the Packers. At right now, three of those four are

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Speaker 4: playoff teams, Minnesota one, Detroit would be the five because

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Speaker 4: they're out the division winner, and then green Bay would

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Speaker 4: squeeze in. That last playoff spot right now is the

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Speaker 4: seventh seed. Again, we're doing that chatter very early, but

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Speaker 4: work with me here. Also, those four teams lead and

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Speaker 4: against the spread differential. Brandon Anderson over or under three

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Speaker 4: NFC North playoff teams. There are three in as of today.

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Speaker 3: There are three in.

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Speaker 1: I can't pick the push here, which I think is

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Speaker 1: the most likely scenario. So if I have to go

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Speaker 1: over under, I'm gonna take the under. I think over

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Speaker 1: getting all four in, that's everybody. That's all the wildcard

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Speaker 1: spots in the NFC. And the problem is the NFC

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Speaker 1: is surprisingly good right now. We've got Atlanta and Tampa

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Speaker 1: both contending and their division. We've got Seattle and San

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Speaker 1: fran both contending their division. We've got Philly in Dallas

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Speaker 1: maybe in the wildcard mix now unexpectedly, if Washington stays

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Speaker 1: in the mix or vice versa, I don't think Chicago

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Speaker 1: is really a strong threat here. We talked about US

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Speaker 1: Sunday night. I wanted to fade them with their win total.

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Speaker 1: It's only eight and a half book sniff this one

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Speaker 1: out already. They know every all four Bears wins are

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Speaker 1: against one win teams right now, So I'm not really

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Speaker 1: taking that as a serious threat yet given the mix.

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Speaker 3: But there's still three others, given.

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Speaker 1: The odds, given how the NFL goes the Hutchinson injury,

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Speaker 1: the Packers are hot and cold. You never know what

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Speaker 1: my vikings. I have to go with the under here

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Speaker 1: and just bet on someone else in the NFC coming through.

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Speaker 4: Simon, how about you with the NFC North.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think in Nila like we bet on regression.

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Speaker 5: This is a division ripe for regression right now. I

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Speaker 5: mean the Vikings five and zero against the spread, the

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Speaker 5: Bears five and one against the spread, and then Green

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Speaker 5: Bay with a backup quarterback playing two games, they're still

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Speaker 5: four and two this year against the spread. And we

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Speaker 5: know Detroit's been a juggernaut right four and two against spread,

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Speaker 5: So just as a better I expect regression, and the

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Speaker 5: biggest one's gotta be the Bears. I mean, they have

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Speaker 5: not faced a true tough defense, and what three four

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Speaker 5: weeks and that tough defense last one they did face,

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Speaker 5: you know wasn't even in like in their true form

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Speaker 5: yet that was the Texans in my opinion, like they

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Speaker 5: were still working things out in that week two matchups.

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Speaker 5: So they're an easy team to bet on regressing, and

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Speaker 5: so is the Minnesota Vikings.

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Speaker 2: But the books love the Vikings. I mean even this

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Speaker 2: week they opened up minus one against the Lions at home.

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Speaker 2: It's up to two and a half at a lot of books,

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Speaker 2: So the books love the Vikings. A professional of the Vikings.

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Speaker 5: So man, it's it's tough to say who's gonna be

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Speaker 5: the team other than the Bears to fall off, But

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Speaker 5: the books know that one team is going to fall off.

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Speaker 5: It's just so hard on your own division to get

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Speaker 5: three teams to make it, especially like you know, the

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Speaker 5: NFC is better this year. So if I had to

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Speaker 5: make two teams make it, I'll stick with the Chalk.

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Speaker 2: I'll still go with.

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Speaker 5: The Minnesota and the Bears to miss it, but not

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Speaker 5: going to be shocked if the Vikings some I'll put

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Speaker 5: it together and end up being a wildcard team.

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Speaker 2: And they're just so well cold right now.

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Speaker 5: It's just hard to see them even if they go,

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Speaker 5: you know, split it rest of the year, right go

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Speaker 5: you know half their games they went half they lose. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: it's a wildcard team and maybe even right below division winners.

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Speaker 5: So really impressed to start by Minnesota Viking team.

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Speaker 4: Oh glad you brought a division winner. And Brandon, I

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Speaker 4: think you brought this up a few weeks ago. There's

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Speaker 4: only been one division game in the North. Yeah, right,

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Speaker 4: it's green Bay and Minnesota. That's it. You've only had

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Speaker 4: one head to head game in the division, so there's

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Speaker 4: opportunities just to beat up on each other at some

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Speaker 4: point and then someone's gonna fall short. So I think

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Speaker 4: that that's key to it too. As far as the division,

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Speaker 4: there's been one game and that was Minnesota beating Green

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Speaker 4: Bay and that was Jordan Love coming back. Brandon, I

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Speaker 4: want to go to you for this one too as well. First,

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Speaker 4: because you had a position on four players four defensive

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Speaker 4: player of the Year and our awards show ahead of

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Speaker 4: the season late in the preseason. But now with Aiden Hutchinson,

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Speaker 4: which you teased earlier, he's out for the season broken leg.

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Speaker 4: How much do you downgrade Detroit so there's a conversation

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Speaker 4: about Detroit and then also let's discuss the landscape for

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Speaker 4: Defensive Player of the Year. So give me first your

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Speaker 4: perspective on the Detroit Lions.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's a really significant loss. I think

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Speaker 1: as much as nearly any non quarterback in the league.

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Speaker 1: That's how important he was to this team. Specifically, they

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Speaker 1: don't have a pass rush anymore, so maybe that's where

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Speaker 1: Hassan Reddick ends up. I'm not sure. There are a

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Speaker 1: lot of options for them, but especially without a pass

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Speaker 1: rush coming. Now those cornerbacks have been exposed a little bit,

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Speaker 1: and now they're even more expelled without the pass rush coming.

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Speaker 1: Carlton Davis might be injured as well. The lines right

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Speaker 1: now are fourth defensively in DBOA. If you've got EPA

377
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Speaker 1: on early downs, they're twenty six per play on early

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Speaker 1: downs with no turnovers, but second on late downs. That

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Speaker 1: is the numbers of a defense that's getting lucky with

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Speaker 1: the big stop late coming up with a turnover when

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Speaker 1: they need it. That's great to get the win so far,

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Speaker 1: but usually that sort of stuff evens out. The early

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Speaker 1: down stuff is a little bit more meaningful long term.

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Speaker 1: So I'm a little worried. They have now three of

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Speaker 1: their next four games around the route in Minnesota, in

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Speaker 1: Green Bay, in Houston. That's not the time of the

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Speaker 1: season that I don't want to be dealing with. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I got a new sort of look defense. What are

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Speaker 1: we doing here? I'm not ready to bury the Lions. Certainly,

390
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Speaker 1: they to me dropped from like a clear Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: contender group in the top four to a well, let's

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Speaker 1: hope we make the playoffs and win a game and

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Speaker 1: we'll see from there. Like that's how significant this is

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Speaker 1: to me as far as defensive Player of the year.

395
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Speaker 3: We moved TJ.

396
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Speaker 1: Watt straight into like a fifty to fifty favorite here.

397
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Speaker 1: That's crazy to me. We got a lot of football

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Speaker 1: to play. Still, I certainly would not be bad. I'd

399
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Speaker 1: be happy he's one of my guys in my position,

400
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Speaker 1: but I can't tell you about that right now at

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Speaker 1: fifty to fifty. Basically, I don't love a name down

402
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Speaker 1: the board here. I'm gonna dig further down, go back

403
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Speaker 1: to one of my other four guys. Micah Parsons is

404
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:51,000
Speaker 1: fifty to one. He only has one sack so far.

405
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Speaker 1: They're on buy a week. Hopefully gets healthy out of

406
00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:55,200
Speaker 1: the buy a week. We know he puts up sacks

407
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Speaker 1: in bunches so he can close the gap and hurry

408
00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,400
Speaker 1: couple two three sack games get hot late the Cowboys

409
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Speaker 1: make around. We know how I was being the conversation.

410
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Speaker 1: Fifty one is just too long for a guy that

411
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Speaker 1: good like is as impactful as any defender if he's healthy,

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Speaker 1: if they kind of figure things out. Probably not, but

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Speaker 1: that's why it's fifty to one.

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Speaker 4: Okay, Yeah, I mean Dexter Lawrence I thought was the

415
00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:17,360
Speaker 4: best player in the game in the Sunday night game

416
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Speaker 4: outside of Joe Burrows fifty our touchdown run. That was awesome,

417
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Speaker 4: But Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, those edge guys are good

418
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Speaker 4: for the Giants, And I know the Giants don't play

419
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Speaker 4: many primetime spots. Still wrapping my head around the fact

420
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Speaker 4: that was the Sunday night game, but they do get

421
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Speaker 4: Pittsburgh Monday night. So Simon, same question to you. First

422
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Speaker 4: weigh in on Detroit, just what you make of them

423
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Speaker 4: without Hutchinson and then any defensive player of the year angle.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, devastating.

425
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Speaker 5: I mean, this could be something we turned to at

426
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Speaker 5: the end of the yeard. There's a reason why they

427
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Speaker 5: might have not won this division. Right, this could be

428
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Speaker 5: the reason Green Bay or the Minnesota Vikings steal this

429
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Speaker 5: division because it is that big of a loss. This

430
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Speaker 5: guy was playing as a top three d end and

431
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Speaker 5: like we talk about the time in football, those are

432
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Speaker 5: the unicorns, Like it goes quarterback and then the d

433
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Speaker 5: n Right, that's the top of the draft. Usually it's

434
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 5: the guys that can change your whole identity. And you know,

435
00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:06,800
Speaker 5: we saw that even the other day with Nick Moosa

436
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,320
Speaker 5: just took over that game against Seattle. It's like, at

437
00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 5: the end of the game, you have these guys that

438
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:13,440
Speaker 5: once teams have to be in the past, they can

439
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,359
Speaker 5: just beat the one on ones and it's it's over.

440
00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:17,439
Speaker 5: Like it's just so hard to have these kind of

441
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 5: guys pop up so such such a negative view on Detroit.

442
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:23,880
Speaker 5: I had them rate at number one my power rating.

443
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 5: It's kind of definitely gonna drop them down to two

444
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:28,720
Speaker 5: or three. It's probably gonna even more so come playoff

445
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:30,880
Speaker 5: time when games are just so tight and a guy

446
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,439
Speaker 5: like that makes such a major difference. So for me,

447
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 5: if I'm gonna go now for futures market for defensive player,

448
00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 5: I've loved him all year.

449
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:41,960
Speaker 2: Coming to the year, it's Fred Warner. I still love

450
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:42,600
Speaker 2: the value at him.

451
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:44,440
Speaker 5: There's a couple of books right now he's fifteen to one,

452
00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 5: sixteen to one. I'd still make that bet. Like the

453
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:49,679
Speaker 5: forty nine erspec they're starting to turn around. It can

454
00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:53,600
Speaker 5: easily be a divisional winner. He is viewed by most

455
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,720
Speaker 5: of the best linebacker on football. We like to give

456
00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 5: awards to the guys who've been around a long time and

457
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:00,320
Speaker 5: they've done at a high level for a long time.

458
00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:03,720
Speaker 5: He's something that really fits that description. So I totally

459
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 5: agree TJ. Watt right now is plus one twenty plus

460
00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,359
Speaker 5: one thirty. I would not bet that. There's way too

461
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,199
Speaker 5: much game left. And he does get injured often because

462
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,240
Speaker 5: he's such a high motor like. He just plays so hard.

463
00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:17,119
Speaker 5: That's why usually ends up getting hurt in so many

464
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 5: different games. So to me, for a fun, smart bet,

465
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,240
Speaker 5: I think it's Fred. We just we haven't had a

466
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 5: linebacker winning a long time. I think he's well deserving

467
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:25,679
Speaker 5: of that award.

468
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:29,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, for clarity, Brandon's got what Bosa, Garrett and Parsons.

469
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 4: Watt plus eight point fifty his longest shot play and

470
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,199
Speaker 4: then Bosa down to eighteen to one. Now got him

471
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:38,560
Speaker 4: ten to one at the time. Yeah, Shane waldron oc

472
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,879
Speaker 4: in Chicago, Matt Lafleur, Kevin O'Connell, they're also thrilled about

473
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:45,160
Speaker 4: this too, especially O'Connell and lafleur. From an offensive standpoint,

474
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:47,919
Speaker 4: Offensive minds don't have to worry about Aid Hudginson the

475
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:49,679
Speaker 4: rest of the way in two meetings for each of

476
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 4: those teams going forward. Shout out to our Action Network

477
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 4: colleague Sean Zaillo, who had another great year in baseball,

478
00:21:56,560 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 4: finishing the MLB regular season up more than twenty five units.

479
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 4: And with Action Pro, you get instant notifications every time

480
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:06,720
Speaker 4: Zarillo or any of our Action experts make a pick

481
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 4: in the Action app. Just visit actionnetwork dot com slash

482
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 4: Pro and use the promo code October for fifteen percent

483
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 4: off an Action Pro subscription. That's fifteen percent off at

484
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 4: actionnetwork dot com slash Pro with the promo code October,

485
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,160
Speaker 4: and be sure to check out Sean every week talking

486
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,919
Speaker 4: MLB playoffs on the Payoff Pitch podcast. Let's go to

487
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:32,680
Speaker 4: the MVP Race. It feels it still feels wide open.

488
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes the favorite plus three hundred, Lamar Jackson, CJ. Stroud.

489
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 4: They file in next to plus five fifty Brandon, would

490
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 4: you rather bet mahomes Lamar Stroud or the field? No

491
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:47,920
Speaker 4: more Derek cart talk, obviously.

492
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 1: No more Derek Carr talk. You can throw him in

493
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 1: either side of this, it doesn't matter. I surprise myself here.

494
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 1: I'm going to take the trio, actually, because that's why

495
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:00,440
Speaker 1: I did not think i'd want this. But I think

496
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 1: you have a really good chance that if you get

497
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 1: mahomes Lamar Stroud, you were very likely getting the AFC

498
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 1: one seed and probably the best record in the league.

499
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 1: Unless it's Minnesota, You're probably getting a head start here

500
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:12,439
Speaker 1: on the rest.

501
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:14,640
Speaker 3: Of the league. Is there narrative? Not a lot.

502
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 1: Are their stats here or advanced stats? Honestly, not really.

503
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 1: I'm not super impressed by the resume of what these

504
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 1: three are. But if you took the names off and said, okay,

505
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,360
Speaker 1: you can have the quarterback of the AFC one seed

506
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 1: in the best record. Do you want that for MVP

507
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 1: or the field? Well, who's my field? Who am I

508
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,880
Speaker 1: missing here? I'm losing Josh Allen, but they already lost

509
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 1: a few games. I don't know if I necessarily need

510
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,680
Speaker 1: that I'm losing NFC top two seeds. But that might

511
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 1: be Jared Goff, might be Kirk Cousins or Baker Mayfield,

512
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 1: might be Sam Darnold or maybe.

513
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 3: A rookie quarterback. Are those guys gonna win MVP?

514
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 1: I want to find somebody down the list of an MVP,

515
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 1: but like, who's the name that I feel like I'm

516
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 1: really missing out on for me? Jordan Love? But maybe

517
00:23:58,600 --> 00:23:59,920
Speaker 1: Green Bay might be a little bit out of the

518
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:01,880
Speaker 1: already too. I don't know if their defense is enough

519
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,679
Speaker 1: to get there, So I couldn't find enough names to

520
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 1: convince me not.

521
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 3: To take this.

522
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 1: I think I'd take the trio and interest you that

523
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 1: at about fifty to fifty odds right now if you

524
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 1: play all three interesting.

525
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,199
Speaker 4: So you've changed your tune on this because your THU

526
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,399
Speaker 4: process going back a few weeks was let's find the

527
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 4: NFC darling, and that's still go ahead.

528
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would still rather find the darling. The problem is,

529
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 1: there's like ten darlings to choose from right now. You

530
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 1: gotta figure it, you have to find it, you gotta

531
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 1: find which one it is. So if you're just giving

532
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,360
Speaker 1: me the other three here, maybe that's the way to go.

533
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 1: I don't know that I'm gonna bet this right now,

534
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:36,239
Speaker 1: but I think it does tell me to maybe not

535
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:39,440
Speaker 1: get too aggressive darling hunting in the NFC, because you

536
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 1: might end up with Derek Carr if you're not careful.

537
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 2: That's what I did.

538
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 4: You already played Tampa on the money line Monday night.

539
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:50,159
Speaker 4: Maybe it's Baker. If Tampa beats Lamar Monday night. I

540
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 4: don't know Simon would say you about this.

541
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 5: This was gonna go just because of the stats. Baker

542
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 5: already has fifteen touchdown passes, and we know we love stats.

543
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,440
Speaker 5: Like all you guys people complaining about the old days

544
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 5: when quarterbacks there fifty touchdowns and now they yearn for that.

545
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 5: If Baker wins this division and throws forty five touchdown passes,

546
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:10,959
Speaker 5: I think he'll get some love. Like we all love

547
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 5: the redemption story so like to me, I think the

548
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 5: writers always want to do new players. That's why Purdy

549
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 5: almost won it last year.

550
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 2: Right.

551
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 5: That was literally came down to that Ravens game. Like

552
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 5: the writers pretty much said, all right, whoever it wins

553
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 5: this game or doesn't lose this game, I should say,

554
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,639
Speaker 5: that's who's gonna win this award because Lamar and Party

555
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 5: basically their stats weren't that far off, like pretty statistically

556
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 5: had a better season last year, but you know, Lamar

557
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 5: won that big game and he was obviously important to

558
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,120
Speaker 5: that team. So just looking at the way this line's up,

559
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:43,639
Speaker 5: if Baker puts the numbers up, I could see him

560
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 5: getting it. And I also I'm a sucker. I bet

561
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 5: Purdy after the last game. I just the way it

562
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 5: all works out. It's like, Okay, if this guy is

563
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,360
Speaker 5: number two right now in passing yards and he just

564
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,880
Speaker 5: puts up a little bit more with a touchdown passes,

565
00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 5: I think Perdy could get there. I mean, it's just

566
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 5: he's this year without McCaffrey, which you know, people knocked

567
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 5: him all last year he was so good because of McCaffrey.

568
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 5: He's put up numbers right now without him. So yeah,

569
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 5: if I'm trying to do some long shots for the NFC,

570
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 5: you know, right now Baker has the numbers. And I

571
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:14,640
Speaker 5: also like Purty, but at the end of the day,

572
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,640
Speaker 5: I'm hoping it's gonna be CJ. I just I feel

573
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:19,399
Speaker 5: like he's played the best for what he's got to

574
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:23,439
Speaker 5: deal with this season, and you know, I'm a sucker

575
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 5: like everyone else. I like the new people, I like

576
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,360
Speaker 5: the new toys and Lamar mahomes.

577
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:29,679
Speaker 2: They've already had their awards.

578
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 5: I'm hoping a new guy gets one this year.

579
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, for this particular year, Brandon, you hit on this

580
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 4: with the San Francisco angle. If pertys the MVP, that's

581
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 4: that might not be good news for the Niners to

582
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 4: get over.

583
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 1: The hump, right, Yeah, Like, I think brock Perty has

584
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,880
Speaker 1: been more valuable to San Francisco this year, which has

585
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 1: actually made him less valuable relative to the league. Like,

586
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 1: I think that's worse for San fran that he's more

587
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 1: valuable to them. Sure, that's all right though, that's really

588
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:59,879
Speaker 1: how MVP goes now in NBA and NFL, where you

589
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 1: actually don't want to bet the MVP player to win

590
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 1: the championship because you're too valuable. That's why you're the MVP.

591
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 1: So it's a kind of weird negative correlation these days.

592
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:12,879
Speaker 4: Okay. Yeah, And by the way, Baker twenty two to

593
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:16,360
Speaker 4: one Baltimore Monday Night at home, you get at lantaxt

594
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:21,159
Speaker 4: at KC home San Francisco. Those are big spots, primetime

595
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,160
Speaker 4: spots at the KC games. Monday night as well. So

596
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 4: we look for those primetime windows where your standalone game

597
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:32,120
Speaker 4: you shine, everyone's watching, you get some love. To Simon's point,

598
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,879
Speaker 4: if it goes well. The AFC so staying on this

599
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 4: because looking at the MVP favorites, it lines up with

600
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 4: how the divisions are shaking out and how the division

601
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 4: odds are are priced. The AFC looks Super Chockey Chiefs, Ravens, Texans,

602
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 4: Bills all lead the divisions as clear odds on favorites.

603
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 4: Bills getting that win last night for first place in

604
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 4: the AFC East, which team Simon ruins the plus one

605
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 4: h three AFC Division parlay.

606
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,399
Speaker 5: And it's boring because I basically bet all this to

607
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 5: be the same chalk. My only discrepancy was I gave

608
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 5: some love to Cincinnati, right, we like the from last

609
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 5: to first. I can't quit them. I can't quit Cincinnati.

610
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 5: I'm just there's just something about this Ravens team. I

611
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 5: know they've been really well, but it's like that was

612
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,679
Speaker 5: such a lucky coin flip win that they had against

613
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 5: that Cincinnati team.

614
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 2: And you know, as much as I want to say.

615
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 5: They're going to hold up other than Lamar's MVP years

616
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 5: We've seen him not last full seasons and like that's

617
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 5: been their kryptonite for this Ravens team.

618
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 2: So I can't.

619
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 5: I refuse to give myself any more to this Jets team,

620
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 5: so I'm not gonna rely on them to break this curse.

621
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 5: It's really hard to think the Chiefs, who have won

622
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 5: their division, what seven straight years with Mahomes and I

623
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 5: think they wanted two straight years with Alex Smith before that.

624
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 5: It just they've been an incredible run. I can't back

625
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 5: the Chargers here. So my one hope is going to

626
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 5: be the Bengals team somehow they put it together, finally

627
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 5: going a run and catch up to this this Ravens team,

628
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 5: where you know everyone's left them for dead at this

629
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 5: point just because they lost that match up against the Ravens.

630
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 5: Everyone's kind of moved this Ravens team to an untouchable status.

631
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 5: And I'm sitting here just saying I don't trust thirty

632
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 5: two year old defensive coordinator. I don't think he's coached well.

633
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 5: This team does not look prepared week the week, and

634
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 5: I still have major questions about Lamar's health. Like there's

635
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 5: a couple of games where he's had to take some

636
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 5: shots that he just usually doesn't take, but you can

637
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 5: see he's forced to do it because his team's down

638
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 5: and he's playing from behind and needs to make those

639
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 5: big plays. So that's the team I'm still questioning right

640
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 5: now as this Ravens team.

641
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, and does Derrick Henry continue at this rampant pace

642
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 4: and mean, he's been outstanding. I was wrong on Derek Henry.

643
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 4: I thought this is not going to work and it's

644
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 4: been he could We talked about this on the Recap

645
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 4: show Brandon the other night. You could make the case

646
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 4: at sixty one he's the MVP right now of the

647
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 4: Baltimore Ravens, even though he probably won't win it or

648
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 4: come close to the top of the board. So yeah,

649
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 4: so let's say you, Brandon, because if you like the Mahomes,

650
00:29:55,440 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 4: Stroud lamar MVP over the rest of the field. So

651
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 4: is Josh Allen the guy that scruis this up?

652
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 3: You know, I wanted to go bills here.

653
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 1: They're up two wins though already on the Jets and

654
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 1: the Dolphins, and they won at both of those teams already.

655
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 1: So that's just that's a tough hill to climb, even

656
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: though you get two teams I think I have a

657
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 1: shot there. I just still don't believe in Houston. It's

658
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 1: a team that I have not believed in on the season.

659
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 1: I don't think that they've been as good as the

660
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 1: five and one record. The problem is, I keep hunting again.

661
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:29,479
Speaker 1: It's the NFCMVP thing who somebody has to beat them

662
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:31,479
Speaker 1: in the division, and I don't know who it is.

663
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 1: I don't really love the Colts. I wanted to be

664
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,719
Speaker 1: the Titans. I like the Titans defense, but Will Levis

665
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 1: ain't the guy. Maybe Mason Rudolph, but they're one in

666
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 1: five right now. I don't know who it is Houston's

667
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 1: division odds. If you gave me a no, I'd probably

668
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 1: be betting that right now. But we don't get that.

669
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 1: They get a lot of these one sided markets. So

670
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,560
Speaker 1: I guess in this question, I get the no. I'll

671
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 1: take Houston, but I don't know who it could be

672
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 1: in that division.

673
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 4: Okay, we'll take it home real quick. We'll do NFC

674
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 4: as well, anything but Chalk right now. Teams like the Commanders,

675
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 4: the Vikings. As we've highlighted Tampa with Baker Seattle, we

676
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:07,640
Speaker 4: haven't done much Seattle discussion. Those teams, those four are

677
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 4: all at least tied for their division's lead. Simon which

678
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 4: team's futures are those four?

679
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 2: Would you buy now, got'd be the Commanders.

680
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 5: I Mean, everything is so negative with Philadelphia, with the Cowboys.

681
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 5: I mean, the Giants ops here are left for dead

682
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 5: at this point. But the Commanders, they have a stretch

683
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 5: coming up here where they need to basically win a

684
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 5: bunch of these games, like this is kind of the

685
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 5: easiest part of the Commander's schedule. We're gonna learn a

686
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 5: lot if Jadon daniels first couple of weeks were a fluke,

687
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,959
Speaker 5: or if he is this twenty seven, twenty six year

688
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 5: old quarterback who's incredibly accurate and smart and plays well

689
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 5: above his pedigree in this league, like he's just coming.

690
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 5: He looks like this really old, mature quarterback, and it's

691
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 5: because he played whatever it was, two hundred and fifty

692
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 5: games in college like he was just in college forever.

693
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 5: He's just been so prepared since he's come to the league.

694
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 5: I just I'm really excited for them and what they've

695
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 5: done offensively and even defensively, like they I thought they're

696
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 5: gonna be one of the worst defensive of football and

697
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 5: they've put somehow put it together, you know, much credit

698
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 5: to their coaching staff. So that's a team where I

699
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 5: still assume the Eagles will win that division, but they

700
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 5: have so much drama, so much turmoil right now, we

701
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 5: could easily see them falling off a cliff saying with

702
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 5: the Cowboys that the Commanders, if they can just get

703
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 5: the nine and eight, ten and seven, I could see

704
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 5: them win this division.

705
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 4: Minus won seventy six, yes, to make the playoffs. Right now.

706
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 4: The Washington Commanders there want to know in the division

707
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 4: that went over, the Giants still have two with Dallas

708
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 4: and two with Philly Brandon anymore Seattle love, Are are

709
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 4: you fine with our Seattle position or is there more

710
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 4: to be had?

711
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: There's no Seattle positions right now. I don't think this

712
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 1: is the time to buy. They've got too many defensive injuries.

713
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 1: I'm not out, but we got to wait, and they

714
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 1: got to earn my trust back a little bit. I'm

715
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 1: gonna go ahead to head here, though I disagree.

716
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 2: In Washington.

717
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 1: They could have lost the Giants if they had a kicker.

718
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 1: They could lost the Cincinnati if they didn't get that

719
00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 1: big pass late in the game. They they just lose

720
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 1: Jonathan Allen, who I think is their best defensive player

721
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:06,400
Speaker 1: from what's already not been a good defense, better than expected,

722
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 1: but still pretty bad. The bigger problem for me, they're

723
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 1: nine for nine on fourth down conversions offensively, and they

724
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 1: are zero point eight epa per play on late downs.

725
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 1: That is more than double any other team. That screams

726
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 1: outlier to me. And regression where when the offense comes

727
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 1: back to earth a little bit, and this is not

728
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,240
Speaker 1: just like, oh, we push push and converted a fourth down.

729
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 1: This says, oh, we threw a forty yard touchdown on

730
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 1: fourth down and change the game and one because of it.

731
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 1: When that stuff goes away, because that's how football works.

732
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 1: Is there gonna be enough? Is there enough for a

733
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback? Is there enough from the defense? I can't

734
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 1: fade totally because I don't love Philly and Dallas right now,

735
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 1: so I don't blame you from that part of the angle.

736
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 1: But I didn't think Washington, especially with our guy Cliff

737
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 1: Kingsbury second half, we know what direction that probably goes.

738
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 1: My pick here surprised me as I dig into this,

739
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 1: So I did an NSC power rankings. You can read

740
00:33:57,240 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 1: that at Action network. I'm on the box. I think

741
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 1: the Bucks are the team to buy in right now.

742
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:04,959
Speaker 1: I think they're the team with the best futures. Tampa

743
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 1: Bay is the only team in the NFL top eleven

744
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:12,960
Speaker 1: in run and pass offense and defense by DVA, the

745
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 1: only team out of the entire NFL that's that balance

746
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 1: that doesn't really have a weak spot right now. Vidabaya there.

747
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 1: They know the run defense is good. Pass defense, they

748
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 1: got the safeties back and healthy Todd Bowles defense is

749
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:25,839
Speaker 1: going to be good now.

750
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:26,800
Speaker 3: They can run the football.

751
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 1: They didn't even do that with Tom Brady around, Like

752
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 1: they haven't to run the ball in Tampa for years.

753
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:33,840
Speaker 1: They put six hundred yards in the Saints fifty one points.

754
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:38,240
Speaker 1: They put up thirty, thirty three and thirty seven on Philly, Washington,

755
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,280
Speaker 1: and Atlanta. Those are playoff teams right now. That Washington

756
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 1: that the Bucks are dropping thirty plus points on the

757
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 1: Liam Cohen offense. I think it's been really good. You

758
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 1: mentioned the Baker MVP. I had that in the article.

759
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 1: I think he's the new Darling long shot in the NFC.

760
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 1: So that's the long shot way to go. I already

761
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 1: am in on Bucks money line. Monday night to post

762
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:02,799
Speaker 1: hurricane turn to Tampa. Stop the Baltimore run a little

763
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 1: bit pass on them against that defense. Like you said, Simon,

764
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 1: I think Tampa's live there. Plus one eighty on the

765
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 1: money line or the number you can get the division

766
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 1: and playoff odds I think are the way to go here.

767
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 1: Division nods plus one eighty five FTN has them at

768
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 1: forty four percent, so that's a really good bargain for

769
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 1: your buck there, and they had them at seventy five percent.

770
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 1: Playoffs that should be minus three hundred. They're around minus

771
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 1: one thirty so not too far from a coin flip there.

772
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:31,520
Speaker 1: And the Saints are really out now. Panthers Island dead

773
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,280
Speaker 1: and gone like that's done. So even if the Bucks

774
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 1: regress some, you just need the Falcons to fall off

775
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 1: a little bit and that's another path where the Bucks

776
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:42,239
Speaker 1: win the division get to the playoffs anyway, So I

777
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 1: think they're the way to go if you want the

778
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 1: long shot. I think rather than the Baker MVP narrative,

779
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 1: I think the Bucks have a real chance to be

780
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:51,479
Speaker 1: like the one or the two seed if this goes

781
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 1: well and the NFC is pretty open. I have them

782
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,279
Speaker 1: around nine percent to win the NFC. They're twenty two

783
00:35:57,280 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 1: to one right now, behind Chicago, behind Washington, Philly, Dallas,

784
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 1: behind teams that I think their odds are wrong and

785
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:09,439
Speaker 1: too aggressive. That leaves some value late. I don't think

786
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 1: Tampa's gonna win the NFC. I just don't think they're

787
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 1: twenty two to one bad to win the NFC. So

788
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:18,959
Speaker 1: I think this is the team to sprinkle along shot

789
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 1: the NFC seems open to me. I don't think we

790
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 1: know who is in the NFC. With the Hutchinson injury,

791
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 1: with the Niners three losses already, this is the time

792
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:31,440
Speaker 1: to find that NFC sleeper if you know who it is,

793
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 1: or at least take your shot at it. Hopefully don't

794
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:35,279
Speaker 1: pick the Saints like I did a couple of weeks ago.

795
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:41,319
Speaker 4: All Right, interesting, interesting that the Bucks conference odds are

796
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:44,400
Speaker 4: the same as Baker's MVP odds. That's kind of a

797
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:48,439
Speaker 4: that's an interesting way again. Reminder, they got Baltimore Monday night.

798
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:50,840
Speaker 4: They have to play Atlanta again, who they matched up

799
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 4: at a shootout in Thursday night football. So you got

800
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 4: to get you gotta get that game. Go to one

801
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,239
Speaker 4: and one against Atlanta, oh and two there that could

802
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 4: be Troublesome at CAC Monday night and then San Francisco

803
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,760
Speaker 4: at home heading into the Bay. And my last thought

804
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:04,759
Speaker 4: reaction to what you just said, I think we have

805
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 4: to just cut you off from now on saying Panthers Island.

806
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 4: You can't even say the phrase it.

807
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 1: I'm falling on the sword over here taking I'm taking credit.

808
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 1: We can't get every worse to first division winners. So

809
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 1: you know I made a bad call on this one.

810
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 1: Panthers Island is dead and gone. It's done. We're happy

811
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:24,320
Speaker 1: to bet against them now, Washington first half points.

812
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 2: Take that this week instead.

813
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:28,359
Speaker 4: Simon Hunter of the Favorites Pod, thanks for being here.

814
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:31,760
Speaker 4: This is good stuff. Thanks guys, all right, Simon Hunter.

815
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 4: Catch him with Chad Millman on the Favorites podcast and

816
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:38,239
Speaker 4: the Master of the Undertaker Gift. Brandon Anderson, also our

817
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:41,480
Speaker 4: NFL contributor here at Action Network. He'll be back for

818
00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:45,319
Speaker 4: Friday morning, First Thing for NFL Best Bets here on

819
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:48,919
Speaker 4: the Action Network podcast that concludes NFL Roundtable Week seven.

820
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 4: Next up, Chris Raybon and Stucky with the week seven

821
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:55,040
Speaker 4: betting preview, including their Sunday six pack, which drops on

822
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:57,800
Speaker 4: Thursday mornings, will be on the lookout for that. Fredi

823
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:00,799
Speaker 4: Glasheen signing off here on the Action net podcast Thanks

824
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 4: for shooting. In Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

825
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:23,720
Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

826
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

827
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 4: hundred gambler