1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 5 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,960 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. I want to bring 7 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: in Mayo Engelstein right now, CEO of Open Road Alliance. 8 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: It's a philanthropic organization in an area that we've been 9 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:33,880 Speaker 1: covering a little bit more lately, and I just find 10 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:38,319 Speaker 1: absolutely fastening impact investing. Maya, thanks so much for joining us. 11 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 1: UM talk to us first about the difference between impact 12 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 1: investing and e s G investing, Right, UM, so E 13 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: s G Environmental Social Governance criteria is really it's a 14 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 1: set of standards, right, It's a criteria impact investing. I 15 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 1: think of it is really more about an investment thesis 16 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 1: for investment strategy, and a good way to think about 17 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: it is to kind of bring it into the conceptual 18 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 1: and just realize that every investment that ever has been 19 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:12,120 Speaker 1: made in the history of investing has actually had an 20 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 1: impact on the world that could be environmental, could be social, 21 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: and that impact could be negative, positive, or neutral. Until recently, though, 22 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,280 Speaker 1: we just never bothered to notice or take into account 23 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: in our investment decision making whether that impact was positive, negative, 24 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 1: for neutral, and what we as an investor wanted to 25 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 1: get out of it. So E s G. I think 26 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 1: of it if you think about it on that continuum 27 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 1: of negative to positive impact. E s G is really 28 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 1: a set of criteria that helps us avoid doing harm, 29 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,759 Speaker 1: that make sure that the impacts of our investment are 30 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 1: not on the negative side. Impact investing, however, is really 31 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: a strategy that says, I don't just want to avoid harm, 32 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 1: I really want to pursue an investment strategy that is 33 00:01:56,160 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 1: proactively and intentionally prioritizing being on the path to end 34 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 1: of that spectrum. My, can you give us an example 35 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 1: of maybe a type or an actual investment that you 36 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 1: guys made that has been successful for you. Yes, UM, 37 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 1: So Open Road Alliance. The primary area of impact investing 38 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 1: that we're engaged in is in debt. So we want 39 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:22,799 Speaker 1: a force short term bridge lung fund primarily supporting businesses 40 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:26,359 Speaker 1: in the emerging in emerging markets. UM, that's really designed 41 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 1: to help businesses that are at an inflection point of 42 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 1: growth and scale and for us that we support a 43 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 1: variety of impact areas UM, so everything from climate change 44 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 1: to healthcare UM to gender, gender equity and human rights UM. 45 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 1: And an example of somebody that we help with our 46 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: investment thesis around this UM would be in the renewable 47 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: energy space, where the renewable energy, particularly in emergency markets 48 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,079 Speaker 1: is of course growing and growing and growing, but they're 49 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: still subject to the same market inefficiencies UM as the 50 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:05,640 Speaker 1: rest of the market. So, for example, we supported Hubco 51 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 1: Power UM when they were entering their series raise and 52 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 1: it was a m at the time, the largest series 53 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: raised for a renewable energy company in East Africa as 54 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: twenty million dollar raise UM, but they needed five hundred 55 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: thousand dollars in order to get to close UM and 56 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:27,079 Speaker 1: we provided that five thousand dollar loan. They got to close, 57 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 1: they were able to see the massive expansion UM and 58 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:33,080 Speaker 1: of course the impact in a company like that is 59 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 1: baked in UM just given the nature of what they're doing. 60 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: And so how do you actually define success for you? 61 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: Is it returns or is it uh, you know, change, 62 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: It's both, it's both. So we actually think about certainly 63 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 1: the financial terms. We're a lender, and we are, you know, 64 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 1: a lender that wants to have the same financial baseline 65 00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 1: as other lenders. We want to need to break even, 66 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 1: we need to meet it. Are in I r R 67 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 1: are open MOAD Impact Fund. We do service third party assets, 68 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 1: we have assets of her management, So we certainly have 69 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 1: to meet all of those fiduciary responsibilities. But what's different 70 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 1: about our investors is, of course they want to go 71 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 1: above and beyond that. They're not looking for maximum profits, 72 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 1: they are looking for maximum impact in the areas that 73 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:23,119 Speaker 1: where they're investing. So that really is where we're gonna 74 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 1: where we go to to look for in terms of 75 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:31,799 Speaker 1: you know, what is what is happening because of this investment. 76 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 1: How many kilowatts of clean energy are coming online? How 77 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 1: many more customers who didn't have access to electricity previously 78 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 1: now have access to electricity because of this investment. So 79 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 1: my kind of going forward give us a sense of 80 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 1: where you think the opportunities are going to be for 81 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 1: impact investing. Where what areas are you guys are going 82 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: to be looking at. We're gonna be looking in a 83 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: lot of areas. I do think, you know a game 84 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 1: climate is just a really obvious one and a really 85 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:01,599 Speaker 1: big one. Um And but I have to say, you know, 86 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:04,359 Speaker 1: my sense is really the future. When people asked about 87 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:07,280 Speaker 1: the future of impact investing, my first sense is the 88 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: future of impact investing isn't impact investing, It's just investing. 89 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: Because we have learned over the years, and especially in 90 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 1: these past couple of years between COVID and inequity and 91 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: everything that has been happening in our country and around 92 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 1: the world, that you know, this traditional system of making 93 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:27,559 Speaker 1: investments without being aware of the impact that they're having 94 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:30,919 Speaker 1: hasn't really worked out for us. And you know, you 95 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:33,279 Speaker 1: only have to look to of course Business round Table 96 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 1: and Black Rock and you know, other actors in the 97 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:42,599 Speaker 1: main field. The convergence of impact and investing it's on 98 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 1: a collision course. And I don't think that in ten 99 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:47,680 Speaker 1: years time there's actually going to be any distinction between 100 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 1: what today we're calling impact investing and what is called investing. 101 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 1: It's just all gonna be the same thing. Well, you know, 102 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:57,919 Speaker 1: I was talking with a Leam Ramtula from Developing World 103 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 1: Market recently and I was thinking the distinction I would 104 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 1: make isn't between impact investing in E s G. But 105 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 1: really between impact investing and charity, I would rather do 106 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: impact investing. If I can make a difference in someone's 107 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 1: live LIFs and UM, then just donate money. It makes 108 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 1: more sense absolutely, And if you're looking at it from 109 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 1: the charity and of the perspective, there is a very 110 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:25,800 Speaker 1: clear economic argument to be made. Write a grand charity. 111 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:30,160 Speaker 1: It's a guaranteed loss, guaranteed zero percent return. Impact investing 112 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:34,719 Speaker 1: from an impact traditional charity perspective has huge leverage building 113 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 1: because you automatically have that opportunity to capital for more impact. Hey, Maya, 114 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Maya Winkelstein, CEO 115 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 1: of Open Road Alliance, will have more coming up. This 116 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:53,800 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. Now let's bring in Jason Pride. He is 117 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: chief investment officer of Private Wealth over Glen me They 118 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:00,160 Speaker 1: have forty billion dollars a little more than four any 119 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 1: billion dollars of assets under management out of Philadelphia. Jason, 120 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Well to be on 121 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 1: with you guys. Let's talk about UM, the peak growth narrative, 122 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 1: and it's one that it seems like market participants are 123 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: convinced about and nonetheless UM they continue for the most 124 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 1: part to bid up stocks. Okay, right now we're down 125 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 1: a little bit, but we um continue to bump up 126 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 1: against new record highs. What's your view, So we might 127 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 1: have a little bit of an opinion here. We think 128 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 1: that the peak growth narrative is Look, it's it's in 129 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: one way it's a fact, and the other way it 130 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 1: actually doesn't matter that much to investors. And here's the 131 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: reason why. Peak growth comes about from from a realization 132 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 1: or a reality that when you're growing up of a 133 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 1: low base that that occurred during the previous recession, your 134 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: growth rate is going to hit levels that you just 135 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 1: don't see during the regular portion of the cycle. You 136 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:00,960 Speaker 1: hit those peak growth levels, and then one you annualize 137 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 1: past that low base, you actually back off from those levels. 138 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 1: This happens every single time we are coming out of 139 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 1: a recession. It is a very regular occurring thing and 140 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 1: something that actually historically doesn't matter to markets once you 141 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 1: get past. And the reason for that is once you 142 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:22,080 Speaker 1: settle back down from these these high growth rates coming 143 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: off the low base, you settle into a sustainable growth 144 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 1: rate that ends up being acceptable for investors. All of 145 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 1: the past recovery cycles we've been through have seen peak growth. 146 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 1: We've seen the market through move right past peak growth 147 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: and realize that behind peak growth is an underlying base 148 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 1: of growth that ends up being acceptable to them because 149 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 1: it ends up being in the middle of an ongoing 150 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:47,440 Speaker 1: economic expansion. We don't expect this period to be any 151 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:51,840 Speaker 1: different than that, all right, given that background, Jason, where 152 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 1: are you, folks at Glenn Meat, Are you positioning your 153 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:58,440 Speaker 1: equity portfolio is more for kind of a reopening cyclical 154 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:01,680 Speaker 1: trade or are you, like a lot of folks sticking 155 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 1: with those big top line stories, whether it's an Apple 156 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:07,679 Speaker 1: or an Amazon or something along those lines. Look, I 157 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 1: see it's actually a mix of those those two things. 158 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:13,320 Speaker 1: One thing is is we are not in the full 159 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 1: force recovery at this point in time. We are when 160 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:18,960 Speaker 1: year past it, we are entering into the kind of 161 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 1: like the ongoing expansion period. Having said that, there's a 162 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:24,840 Speaker 1: little bit more gas in the tank on on the 163 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: recovery um. There are portions of their market that are 164 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 1: not fully back to previous lowest, portions of the economy 165 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 1: that are not fully back to the previous levels. We 166 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 1: continue to face the COVID pandemical a little bit, and 167 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,319 Speaker 1: that's holding back certain parts of the economy. So we 168 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:43,040 Speaker 1: think there's actually a little bit left in the reopening trade. 169 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 1: So I would say on the whole we're pretty balanced 170 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 1: between the two aspects. Would maybe a little bit of 171 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:52,320 Speaker 1: a tilt, a very marginal tilt towards the reopening trade 172 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:54,960 Speaker 1: because there's a little bit more left in the in 173 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:57,200 Speaker 1: the tank there for us as we go through the 174 00:09:57,240 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 1: next I would say six to twelve months aread. I 175 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:04,080 Speaker 1: think I would also underline that that what seems to 176 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 1: be coming out of Washington right now with the the 177 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 1: upcoming um UH Infrastructure and Reconciliation Bill, is likely going 178 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:19,439 Speaker 1: to be helpful for those more reopen oriented traded industrial cyclicals, 179 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:23,680 Speaker 1: domestically oriented companies than the large global multinationals. It seems 180 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 1: to be a little bit more punitive to the large 181 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 1: global multinationals. On the tech side. How much help do 182 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 1: you expect the industrials, How much fiscal help do you expect? Well, 183 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 1: it's a it's a pretty big bill. I think we're 184 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:41,839 Speaker 1: looking at mainly from the tech side. Um they peered 185 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 1: back some of their expectations on how they're going to 186 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 1: be applying the global intangeable income taxes and lifted the 187 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:53,199 Speaker 1: expectation for base statutory corporate tax rates, but still the 188 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: bigger multinational tech players are gonna get harder, hit harder 189 00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:01,559 Speaker 1: than the more domestically oriented industrial play. And look, it's 190 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:03,719 Speaker 1: an infrastructure spend. At least a good portion of it, 191 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 1: seven billion dollars in infrastructure oriented spending is going to 192 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 1: be going through and that should benefit UM cyclical industrials 193 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 1: more than it does the big tech place. How do 194 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 1: you guys think about valuation here in this market, Jason? 195 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:21,480 Speaker 1: A lot of folks are saying, you know, even with 196 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:24,320 Speaker 1: the ten yield tent tenure yielding in at one point 197 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 1: three roughly, boy, this is an expensive market. How concerned 198 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:30,840 Speaker 1: are you about that? And we we tend to agree 199 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 1: with that. Even when you adjust for interst rate short 200 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 1: term and long term interest rates, equities on a global 201 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 1: basis are sitting in like in the eightieth percentile range 202 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 1: of valuation. So on the high side, domestic stocks are 203 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 1: actually sitting above the nine percentile, with the growth oriented 204 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 1: place UM sitting actually closer like seven PERCENTIUL so kind 205 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 1: of nosably territoryile and above tends the result in red 206 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:03,680 Speaker 1: used for returns over the next one three and five years. 207 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:07,199 Speaker 1: Eightieth percentile does it though, which is pretty interesting. The 208 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 1: note and what that what that conveys is actually there's 209 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,959 Speaker 1: not really everything in the market is overvalued. It's actually 210 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:17,679 Speaker 1: more most concentrated those large growth names. When you look 211 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:19,960 Speaker 1: at large value, it's more reasonable. When you get down 212 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 1: the small it's more reasonable when you look abroad, International, APTA. 213 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 1: It was some of the better areas that we think 214 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 1: set out there actually set on in Asia where look 215 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:31,439 Speaker 1: they've they've been hit for reasons, but they are the 216 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 1: most attractive areas out there in the global marketplace. All right, Jason, 217 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 1: thank you so much for your perspective in your comments. 218 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 1: Jason pride ce io of Private Wealth for Glenn Mead. 219 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:47,719 Speaker 1: They are based in the town of Brotherly Love. That's Philadelphia, Pa. Well, 220 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:49,960 Speaker 1: we always love to talk M and A deals, and 221 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 1: there's a big one in the text base and it 222 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 1: involves a company that has got a product called mail 223 00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:59,559 Speaker 1: Chimp into it. It's going to acquire email market and 224 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 1: mail Chimp for twelve billion dollars. I don't know where 225 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 1: to go with this, but let's start with our leader 226 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 1: in all things tech that's on a rag running. He's 227 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: a Senior Software and I T services animals for Bloomberg 228 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 1: Intelligence on I know into it. Okay, application software company 229 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 1: buying some more software. What is a mail Chimp and 230 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 1: why is it worth twelve billion dollars? It's a good one, Paul, 231 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 1: if you look at it. Everybody in the software space 232 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 1: wants to be like Salesforce. They want to go by, 233 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:31,880 Speaker 1: go out and buy other software assets so that they 234 00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:34,960 Speaker 1: can sell in then got installed base. And that's exactly 235 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 1: what in chet is doing. Mail Chimp is an email 236 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 1: marketing software company. So you know, if you want to um, 237 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: you know, send me spam every day about you know, 238 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 1: some kind of product that you have. You know, you 239 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:51,800 Speaker 1: use one of these software products. I wonder what the 240 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 1: name comes from, is it uh? Is there a history 241 00:13:57,160 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 1: of monkeys delivering mail? Or I have no idea, but 242 00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 1: but hands down, if you think about it right now, 243 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 1: how are people reaching out you. Nobody's mailing you pamphlets 244 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:10,840 Speaker 1: and trying to get you to buy some stuff. If 245 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 1: you have a large installed base of customers that already 246 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:16,480 Speaker 1: use your product, this is the best way for you 247 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 1: to you know, sell into another thing that they will 248 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 1: buy from you and keep on increasing your recurring revenue 249 00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 1: from that customer piece, and everybody wants to target the 250 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 1: SNB market right now. So, Matt, I don't know if 251 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:29,760 Speaker 1: you know this, but whenever I see an M and 252 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 1: A trade go across the Bloomberg terminal, the first thing 253 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 1: I do is hit M A go Well, then I 254 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 1: go to look at the advisors, what investment banks are 255 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 1: working on this deal and for the seller here for 256 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 1: mail Chimp, Frank Quatrone and Catalyst still doing big, big 257 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 1: deals in tech. Just one of the all time grades 258 00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 1: in technology investment banking on a rug. So what's really 259 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 1: you know, talk to us about into it? Here, here's 260 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 1: the company. I got a hundred and fifty billion dollar 261 00:14:56,800 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 1: market cap. Most people, including me, don't really know much 262 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 1: about it. Talk us about this company and kind of 263 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:07,960 Speaker 1: where they're growing. Uh, what's behind this company? Since you 264 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 1: look at it, I mean, they are the the you 265 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 1: know everything tax, turbo tax and then they that's really 266 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 1: their bread and potter. But just like it is for 267 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 1: any other even large installed based software company. You know, 268 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:22,360 Speaker 1: whether that's a derby, whether that's salesforce, whether that's into it. 269 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 1: Right now you have to figure out how can I 270 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 1: sell another product? To my customer base. And that really 271 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 1: is the game here. You know, a value investor would 272 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: have said, why don't you just go out and buy 273 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 1: your stock every you know, every every year and use 274 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 1: the free cast for that. But Salesforce has shown that 275 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 1: buying a lot more products it does help in the 276 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: long run. It helps in customer retention, your turn rate 277 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 1: goes down, and then you can, you know, increase prices 278 00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 1: when you bundle these things, and that's what the CEO 279 00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 1: is doing. They bought a company called credit Karma a 280 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,280 Speaker 1: little while ago for seven billion dollars and this is 281 00:15:57,440 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 1: you know, in the same string of acquisitions. This is 282 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:04,080 Speaker 1: a can pick one alright, So what's what's next? Then? 283 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 1: I guess is there are they looking for pretty much 284 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 1: anything that they can fit into And is finance just 285 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 1: super easy right now? I think finance is super easy 286 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 1: right now. And for all of these software companies, what 287 00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 1: they're looking at is what is their niche and market 288 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 1: And for introit it is the SMB market. So whenever 289 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,560 Speaker 1: you see an economy, uh, you know, rebound, you see 290 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 1: the number of small businesses go up, and this is 291 00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 1: where the sweet spot is for Inteuit. They want to 292 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 1: be able to not just do the tax software for 293 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 1: these companies. They want to sell additional products. And now 294 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 1: whether this is you know, let's say right now they're 295 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:43,000 Speaker 1: using email marketing software. You know, potentially they could think 296 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 1: about something in advertising, something in the front office customer service, 297 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 1: something in the back office such as finance. So they 298 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 1: can they can figure out many areas where a small 299 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 1: and medium business would need more software products. You know, Matt, 300 00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 1: I just pump put up the camp chart, which is 301 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 1: something you like to do for these names. Look at 302 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 1: the last five years, boy into it's had a compoundent 303 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 1: and your return about forty a year versus the SMP 304 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:09,880 Speaker 1: of eight. So it's up another fifty percent this year. 305 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 1: So another great software story. That's all I has. All 306 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:16,160 Speaker 1: the companies he follows all are up like fifty percent 307 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 1: a year every year. Well, it's uh, just a fascinating 308 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 1: time for these companies. And um, it kind of reminds 309 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:26,640 Speaker 1: me a little bit of those days when Frank Quatrone 310 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:29,800 Speaker 1: was the prince of Silicon Valance. You know, I mean 311 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 1: for a lot of our a lot of bankers today 312 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 1: probably are too young to remember Frank Quatrone. Um he 313 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:38,879 Speaker 1: got embroiled in some real issues just as he was 314 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:43,960 Speaker 1: all vindicated. Well yeah, yeah everything, uh huh okay. So 315 00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:47,439 Speaker 1: definitely a fascinating, a fascinating story of Frank and of 316 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 1: into It and Male Champa Rona. Thanks so much for 317 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 1: joining us from Bloomberg Intelligence. Apples holding a product event 318 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:02,920 Speaker 1: today one pm. Lost ree time, maybe iPhone thirteen upgrade, 319 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 1: maybe a watch upgrade. So my question is do I 320 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:07,680 Speaker 1: need to run over to the Apple store on Fifth 321 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 1: Avenue and upgrade all my Apple stuff? Joining us is 322 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 1: on on Shriny Boston, Senior Semiconductor on Hardware Analysts. He 323 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:17,720 Speaker 1: covers Apple for Bloomberg Intelligence, joining us here in the 324 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. So Anna, what's is there a 325 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 1: big deal today or is this just kind of, you know, 326 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:28,399 Speaker 1: some upgrades on the edges. Look, it's going to be evolutionary, right, 327 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 1: So we've said this. There are a billion iPhone users 328 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,920 Speaker 1: in the install base and the fact that we upgrade 329 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:40,200 Speaker 1: about twenty of them every single year is phenomenal. So 330 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 1: what you want to do is produce a product that 331 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 1: is revolutionary, that drives that refresher great up what we 332 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:52,199 Speaker 1: saw with the revolution last with the iPhone twelve was 333 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 1: the five G move, and we expect the momentum to continue. 334 00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 1: We think we're not We're nowhere near done yet with 335 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 1: the super Psyche. So this is a this is an 336 00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 1: evolutionary story. So the answer to your question is, it 337 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:07,400 Speaker 1: would be nice if you went out and upgraded everything 338 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:11,159 Speaker 1: as quickly as possible. But we're expecting, you know, fifty 339 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 1: one million units in counter quarter three and about eighty 340 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,439 Speaker 1: nine millions to be sold in counter quarter four. But 341 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 1: in the grand scheme of things, this is an evolutionary upgrade, 342 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 1: more five G, more momentum, continuation of teams. But the 343 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 1: Watch is going to be revolutionary, isn't it? Or at 344 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:33,119 Speaker 1: least the shape is going to be different. It's bigger, um, 345 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:37,760 Speaker 1: it should be capable of more? Does it tell time? Look? 346 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 1: You know you you bring up a good point, Matt Miller. 347 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 1: Is that you brought up the connectivity portion, the halo effect. 348 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 1: You know, iPhone drives, Watch, iPhone, drives, Macmac drives, iPhone, everything, 349 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:53,959 Speaker 1: drive services. Right, So the connectivity um or the connectivity 350 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 1: between all of these products within the closed the walled garden, 351 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 1: if you may, is the wholly grade for Apple to 352 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 1: the extent that I can get you upgraded on the watch, 353 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:07,440 Speaker 1: which hasn't seen that much of an upgrade UM in 354 00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 1: recent times. Is a is a great advancement. The fact 355 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:15,480 Speaker 1: that services, despite the epic drama, we can make that stickier. 356 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:18,879 Speaker 1: It's a high margin business. We can expand that. That's 357 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,600 Speaker 1: if I can do that consistently, If I'm Apple every 358 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:26,520 Speaker 1: single time, a single product every year or every other 359 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:30,320 Speaker 1: year in some cases, and increase the attached rate, that's 360 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:34,199 Speaker 1: what drives iPhone tripments and services grow. You made a 361 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,159 Speaker 1: second point which was interesting, which not many people are 362 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 1: talking about, is the gating factor is supply constraints right UM, 363 00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 1: and the chip shortage is here to stay, unfortunately, and 364 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 1: the visibility of that through be maybe through first half 365 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:53,359 Speaker 1: twenty two. So depending on how strong demand is and 366 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:57,119 Speaker 1: where demand comes from and what other products are have 367 00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:01,200 Speaker 1: high demand, there could be a re percussions even two 368 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,440 Speaker 1: companies like Apple UM which saw some spill over into 369 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:07,360 Speaker 1: iPhone and three Q. Alright, so I'm trying to get 370 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:09,879 Speaker 1: Tom Kane to upgrade the five G. I'm trying to 371 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 1: ma can download his movies and his music much faster. 372 00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:18,959 Speaker 1: Is five G really a super cycle driver? I'm just 373 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:22,160 Speaker 1: not feeling it. Yeah, you know, it's interesting because one 374 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:25,639 Speaker 1: of the things that unlike remember the two G two 375 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,639 Speaker 1: three G conversion was voice to data. Right, three G 376 00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 1: two four G was huge upgrades from a speed perspective 377 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 1: from in the four G in the in the data landscape, 378 00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 1: four G two five G is yes, about more speed, 379 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,879 Speaker 1: but also about a variety of more connections. It's just 380 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:49,120 Speaker 1: not about the handset anymore. It's about handset, it's about autos, 381 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 1: it's about industrial IoT, but the services associated with all 382 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 1: of those new expansive products and product categories. We're not 383 00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:00,959 Speaker 1: there yet, okay, So this is going to be a 384 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:05,200 Speaker 1: long journey, and it's come first to the consumer. And 385 00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 1: at the margin we're going to be able to see 386 00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:11,640 Speaker 1: faster speech. We are not there with the true millimeter 387 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 1: wave implementation of five G either, so all of this 388 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:18,240 Speaker 1: is going to take time. Um, we're not seeing any 389 00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:22,359 Speaker 1: dramatic art poo increases. So you're going to download your 390 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,640 Speaker 1: movies faster. You're going to be able to stream when 391 00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,480 Speaker 1: you're on the train in New Jersey transit. That's the answer. Paul. 392 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,240 Speaker 1: By the way, I remember hearing all this about three 393 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,440 Speaker 1: G as well. And and now when I see three 394 00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 1: G on my phone, It's like a nightmare scenario. It 395 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 1: doesn't doesn't work anymore. We're we're spoiled, Punch. I can 396 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:41,159 Speaker 1: tell you that, you know, the even four G might 397 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 1: seem slow compared to a year from now with five. 398 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 1: So bottom line on on, I want to go out 399 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:49,879 Speaker 1: and get myself a new iPhone. Have been waiting and 400 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:52,600 Speaker 1: waiting and waiting. I want to go and get the 401 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 1: new watch the seven series seven Watch? Am I going 402 00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:01,160 Speaker 1: to be able to do that next week? UM, particularly 403 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 1: on the high end? I think you will be able to. UM. 404 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,439 Speaker 1: One of the things that we've been consistently saying in 405 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:12,480 Speaker 1: the last year is that the shipments of Apple, particularly 406 00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:14,600 Speaker 1: the iPhone, are gonna skew towards the higher end. All 407 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:19,160 Speaker 1: of the camera advancements and the UM lens and enhancements 408 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:23,640 Speaker 1: and the screen enhancements are going to drive UM the 409 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 1: performance needs and the storage needs of the iPhone UM 410 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 1: much much higher. And as a result, you know that 411 00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 1: seven dollar iPhone is not going to cut it free, Matt, 412 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,120 Speaker 1: particularly with the pretty pictures of cars that you take. 413 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 1: So it's gonna you're gonna move towards a high end 414 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 1: and you're gonna shell out. Well, I actually pay a 415 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 1: massive monthly fee in order to get a free the 416 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,280 Speaker 1: free phone of my choice every year. There you go. 417 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,880 Speaker 1: So you're already on a good upgrade cadence. Yes, exactly, 418 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,080 Speaker 1: and I should have upgraded in April. But I knew 419 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:56,720 Speaker 1: if I just wait a little bit longer, just a 420 00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,200 Speaker 1: couple more months, I keep telling myself, a couple more months, 421 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,679 Speaker 1: I can get the thirteen on. Thanks so much for 422 00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:04,359 Speaker 1: joining us on Trinative aust On there from Bloomberg and 423 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:08,040 Speaker 1: telling thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You 424 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:11,440 Speaker 1: can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or 425 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:15,359 Speaker 1: whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on 426 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 1: Twitter at Matt Miller y three and on Fall Sweeney 427 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:21,919 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you 428 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:24,359 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio