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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go spreading the corn.

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Speaker 1: Ten seconds of eighty.

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Speaker 2: The just go to show under the basket, Under the basket,

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Speaker 2: it's the truth for the wind, God, the go a miracle.

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Speaker 2: I'm just suck the water. Hit that one from the

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Speaker 2: parking lot. Shuck it all. It's college basketball.

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Speaker 1: It's not the size on the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 1: It's the size of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 2: What's up the generation? Welcome to The Big Bets on

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Speaker 2: Campus Podcast College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Preview, Part five.

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Speaker 2: I'm stuck. He enjoying me for this one very special guest.

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Speaker 2: You're probably familiar with him, mister Maddy Cox. What's going on? Brother?

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Speaker 1: I'm good stuck, are you, sir?

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Speaker 2: Uh? Excited?

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Speaker 3: You know you come a little bit of a lull

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Speaker 3: coming up. Talked about that with Kai. You know, Monday

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Speaker 3: and Tuesday we have some championship so it'll be fun.

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Speaker 3: But then, I mean Wednesday to Sunday is just.

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Speaker 4: It's much needed, honestly, it really is. It's like to

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Speaker 4: reset the batteries before the marathon. Well, I guess it's

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Speaker 4: a bunch of sprints within the marathon that is the

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Speaker 4: mid March end of March run. So yeah, dial in, folks.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it'll be nice to exhale. We on this episode

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Speaker 2: we are going down. So we just did. I just

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Speaker 2: did with Kai. We covered the Big Watt, the Whack,

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Speaker 2: the Big Twelve, the PAC twelve. Today we're going to

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Speaker 2: cover the ACC. We are going to cover the matt

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Speaker 2: Act and the Big Sky. Those are the three that

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Speaker 2: renn card before we dive in. Biggest takeaway from the

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Speaker 2: weekend that was.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the whole Duke thing honestly right, It's

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Speaker 4: like I'm just reaching for low hanging fruit. But we're

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Speaker 4: gonna talk about the a SEC tournament here in a bit,

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Speaker 4: I would assume, So it does that mean for Duke? Right,

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Speaker 4: Like I kind of think from a look at that

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Speaker 4: terrible loss at home, with all the hoopla that was

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Speaker 4: surrounding the coach k thing and the unc angle to it,

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Speaker 4: I kind of think it reinvigorates them. So I think

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Speaker 4: it's like the best thing to happen to Duke within

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Speaker 4: the context of like an AC seed tournament future bet.

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Speaker 1: But we'll see the price isn't great, but we'll talk

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Speaker 1: more about that. I assume we'll get into it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, it was a stunning win for Carolina. We'll

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Speaker 2: talk about if what that means for them. Are you

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Speaker 2: more optimistic on their chances? It's definitely a down year

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Speaker 2: in the ACC. Why don't we just start right there.

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Speaker 2: We'll just get right into it. The ACC Tournament March

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Speaker 2: eighth through the twelfth of the Barkley Center in Brooklyn,

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Speaker 2: New York. Fifteen teams will compete. Duke, Miami, North Carolina,

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Speaker 2: and Notre Dame get double buys. The defending champ is

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Speaker 2: Georgia Tech, a four seed. Five of the last ten

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Speaker 2: have been three seeds or lower. The lowest. Yeah, ask

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Speaker 2: a trivia question, do you know the lowest seed to

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Speaker 2: win the ACC Conference tournament? Like seven six two thousand

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Speaker 2: and four Maryland, who was not going to get in

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Speaker 2: the tournament if they didn't win it. I think they're

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Speaker 2: like seven to nine in the ACC. The end of

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Speaker 2: twenty seventeen, Duke was a five seed. That was the

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Speaker 2: second lowest. Pretty amazing that Georgia Tech is the defending

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Speaker 2: chap they were a four seed. How funny are some

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Speaker 2: of these you have? Georgia Tech, Georgetown, Oregon State? Are

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Speaker 2: some of these defending champs. They're like, yeah, abs no

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Speaker 2: chance of winning. I rarely see that. Yes, last year

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Speaker 2: it was a weird year. So Duke's the favorite. And

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Speaker 2: by the wa, George takes one hundred and fifty one,

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Speaker 2: don't bet them. Duke is minus one thirty. They're the favorite.

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Speaker 2: UNC eight to one, Wake ten to one, Virginia Tech

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Speaker 2: ten to one, Notre Name ten to one, Miami eleven

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Speaker 2: to one, UVA eighteen to one, QS fifty to one.

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Speaker 2: I bet there's gonna be more futures on Q than

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Speaker 2: any other team.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I can make You're right to yep, I agree,

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Speaker 4: that's good to ask. Feel like I'm curious for the

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Speaker 4: second shakeout, but everyone and their mother's gonna be make

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Speaker 4: Ques here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. And then you know you get down to Florida

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Speaker 2: State sixty to one, Clemson eighty one, NC State one

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Speaker 2: hundred to one, and you know, the acc was just

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Speaker 2: it was a very down year in the conference and

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Speaker 2: there are just so many teams didn't live up to expectations.

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Speaker 2: Some of that was due to injuries, you know, accused

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Speaker 2: of sufferings of injuries, Florida State of sufferings injuries. Clemson

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Speaker 2: dealt with some injuries NC State has just not lived

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Speaker 2: up to any of its expectation. Georgia Tech a ton

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Speaker 2: of injuries. So just across the board, you had a

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Speaker 2: lot of kind of suffering teams throughout the year. When

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Speaker 2: you first look at this bracket, what sticks out?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you're right, Like I was, just starting with those

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Speaker 4: first round matchups and teams littered with just multiple injury detonations,

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Speaker 4: roster hemorrhaging as we've seen Clemson, NC State, that first

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Speaker 4: round match of Louisville G Tech. I mean, I don't

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Speaker 4: know why you'd beten too those games, and that just

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Speaker 4: feels like the two of the biggest whackaball games that

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Speaker 4: possibly exist. And then obviously any game in bolvingk Pitt

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Speaker 4: is a who the heck knows what you're getting from

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Speaker 4: a future's perspective, the two I like the.

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Speaker 1: Best, although I don't love them, to be honest.

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Speaker 4: It's Virginia back in Virginia, both Virginia schools, for the

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Speaker 4: predominant reason being.

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Speaker 1: They both avoid duke side of the bracket.

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Speaker 4: They're on the bottom half with Notre Dame lurking for

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Speaker 4: Virginia Tech if they win that first game, and then

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Speaker 4: Virginia with the matchup against UNC if they win their

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Speaker 4: first game, who I think is going to be a

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Speaker 4: good fade potentially and that quarter finals coming off the

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Speaker 4: Duke Quinn. But I mean the price isn't great. Plus

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Speaker 4: seventeen hundred plus for Virginia plus eleven hundred for about Tech.

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Speaker 4: It's sort of a tournament where you look at all

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Speaker 4: the randomness that could occur, and that should induce excitement

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Speaker 4: to bet, you know, with the high variance environment. But

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Speaker 4: but really, man, nothing feels strong for me from a future.

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Speaker 4: Do you like anything here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I I personally was, and we ne even mention

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Speaker 2: Louisville all everything that they've.

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Speaker 1: Dealt with, and yeah, right, exactly is.

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Speaker 2: William's gonna play? Is he not? Did they quip at that?

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Speaker 1: Does he care?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? You could. You could cross off all those teams

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Speaker 2: to you know, ten through fourteen not winning this, so

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Speaker 2: they would have to win five games in five days.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I think that, you know, could Duke. The

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Speaker 2: problem is Florida State is just decimated and Syracuse, you know,

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Speaker 2: some of their injuries in the interior have that defense

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Speaker 2: is just not the same and they got destroyed by

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Speaker 2: Duke in both Gays and now you're gonna have to

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Speaker 2: play angry Duke off that Carolina loss. So I kind

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Speaker 2: of just cross off both the eight and nine here,

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Speaker 2: Florida State and Sarahcuury. If you're a Syracuse fan or

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Speaker 2: you want to have fun, sure to throw some pocket

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Speaker 2: change on it.

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Speaker 4: Duke is like Duke is built to destroy qes, like

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Speaker 4: the way those like just what they're shooting and with

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Speaker 4: those like Ben Carol kind of being a trigger man.

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Speaker 4: I think they rolled cues for the third consecutive time

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Speaker 4: the season, So yeah, I would not touch ces. This

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Speaker 4: is like the one year where I think Houghs does

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Speaker 4: not have value.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and Florida State's playing a little better of like

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Speaker 2: Notre Dame to close the year. I mean they so

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Speaker 2: they could beat Syracuse, is what I'm saying. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: So then I go down, you know, Wake Forest Miami.

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Speaker 2: I think that they're probably priced right Miami did beat Duke,

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Speaker 2: Yeah Forrest Kid close, So yeah, I think that, you know,

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Speaker 2: with Duke losing to Carolina here, they're clearly the best

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Speaker 2: team overall in the conference. I'm avoiding the top half

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Speaker 2: of the bracket, so I think the focus is on

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Speaker 2: the bottom half. As you alluded, to and you know,

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Speaker 2: if you look at bracket matrix right now, like Duke

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Speaker 2: is safely in, they're like a two, and then it's like,

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Speaker 2: way Carolina. I think Carolina is now safely in, but

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Speaker 2: they're ten projected as tens. Miami that it in projected

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Speaker 2: is eleventh.

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Speaker 1: Like you're getting a bunch of bubble teams here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, very dicey. And then you have Virginia Tech, which

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Speaker 2: is really close, and then Virginia, which is probably asked

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Speaker 2: to win it are going a deep run and they

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Speaker 2: probably gotta get to the final. But these games are

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Speaker 2: going to mean a lot to Virginia and Virginia Tech.

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Speaker 2: But they're I mean, Carolina their name. It's not like

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Speaker 2: they're safely in. But I do think that North Carolina

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Speaker 2: might be a little bit of a lull You're playing

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Speaker 2: Virginia after that Duke win, so ken Virginia kind of

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Speaker 2: catch Carolina sleeping and then open up the bottom half

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Speaker 2: of that bracket, you know, because I do think Virginia

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Speaker 2: Tech can beat Notre Dame.

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Speaker 1: The team age could shoot.

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Speaker 2: The lights out, and that's kind of what you want

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Speaker 2: with a dog. I wish the price was a little better,

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Speaker 2: but that's the team that I had circled across the

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Speaker 2: board was Virginia Tech. I don't hate Virginia either, because

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Speaker 2: they're kind of based on each other. Like I think

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Speaker 2: Virginia Tech, you know, you're kind of hoping that Carolina

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Speaker 2: gets knocked out by Virginia, So there's some correlation.

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Speaker 1: There, Yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 2: So, Yeah, I have the same two circle as you.

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Speaker 2: It's the two Virginia schools in desperation mode outside of

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Speaker 2: the Duke half the bracket. And then you know, like

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Speaker 2: Virginia Tech's playing Clemson, Nancy State, Virginia's playing Louisville or

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Speaker 2: Georgia Tech. I just don't see really big upset potential

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Speaker 2: in that first game, which helps they still would have

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Speaker 2: to win four games in four days.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's the issue with Virginia schools, right, Like you

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Speaker 4: kind of want to be just talked about how it's

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Speaker 4: important to want to focus on the higher sea just

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Speaker 4: because of the way the brackets set up.

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Speaker 1: It's just tough to win.

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Speaker 4: Four games in four days, even if you're coming out

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Speaker 4: of that second round, which kind of goes back to

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Speaker 4: maybe Duke's actually the best bet here. I don't know,

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Speaker 4: I've gone I've waffled. Clearly, there's no strong bets here

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Speaker 4: for me in this field. It's worth mentioning. I looked

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Speaker 4: to the splits the last six years. Favorites are forty

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Speaker 4: one and twenty nine with a one point five average

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Speaker 4: covering margin in this tournament. So I think it kind

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Speaker 4: of shows how the back to backs, the back to

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Speaker 4: back to backs take a toll as you advanced later

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Speaker 4: in this in this field, and you get a pretty

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Speaker 4: strong edge not priced into the markets for the favorites.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, in Virginia, if you look at Virginia, I mean,

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Speaker 2: if if Virginia does get to Virginia Tech, you know,

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Speaker 2: the game is gonna be like fifty four to fifty three.

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Speaker 2: And that's just how it's gonna be when those two

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Speaker 2: teams play. Virginia has no bench whatsoever, the three hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty first in bench minutes, but they play at

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Speaker 2: the slowest tempo in the country, which helps, right, limited possessions.

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Speaker 2: They're not going up and down the court, so that

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Speaker 2: helps a little bit. Virginia Tech, Yeah, same thing. No

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Speaker 2: bench play really slow, so they're you know, limiting possessions.

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Speaker 2: It'll still be tough, but it's not like the team

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Speaker 2: you know, like a Saint John's it's you know, just

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Speaker 2: your legs might give out, still might. But it helps

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Speaker 2: that they play so slow.

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Speaker 1: And QS has that formula tier.

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Speaker 4: Right, That's how Behim's been able to make a killing

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Speaker 4: in March despite not having a deep beense.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 4: I think the zone, the way they play allows you

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Speaker 4: to conserve legs and it sort of diminishes the importance

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Speaker 4: of depth, especially in this in this field.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean in Virginia Tech's top five in

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Speaker 2: the country in three point shooting, They're going to shoot

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Speaker 2: a lot of three. So yeah, that's that's one thing

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Speaker 2: that I do like about them here. It's odd because Virginia.

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Speaker 2: Yeah that going back to QS first, you mentioned attorney

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Speaker 2: setting success. That's why a lot of people are gonna

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Speaker 2: fall in love with QS and dull narrative like QS

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Speaker 2: just finds a way to get into the tournament. This

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Speaker 2: is their only path. But part of the reason they've

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Speaker 2: had success in tournament settings, specifically in the NC double

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Speaker 2: A tournament, when you're when teams are playing and they

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Speaker 2: aren't familiar with their defensive scheme is that quick turnarounds

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Speaker 2: not familiar with the zone. But this zone is just

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Speaker 2: not anything to write. How it's zone so it's not

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Speaker 2: like that's working in their favor here now, thoughts on overall?

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Speaker 2: Thoughts on Carolina, Who's a really tough team to figure out.

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Speaker 2: But they closed the year strong. I mean, but they

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Speaker 2: had to be They had to go to overtime against Syracuse,

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Speaker 2: and they didn't look great against Louisville MC state, but

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Speaker 2: they have one they won at Virginia tack. It's just

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Speaker 2: a really inconsistent team. They lost a pit at home

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Speaker 2: the game before that, but they did close the year

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Speaker 2: with five Street wins, including a huge road win at Duke.

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Speaker 2: Is this a team that you think has potential to

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Speaker 2: make a run in March? Have you have you kind

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Speaker 2: of changed your tune on them based on Saturday? Do

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Speaker 2: you think that was just like one game, weird circumstances,

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Speaker 2: like all the hype and that work. Maybe that worked

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Speaker 2: against Duke? What are your thoughts on the Heels?

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Speaker 4: I give them partial credit, so maybe it's my Duke homers.

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Speaker 4: I'm speaking through the airwaves there, but very big of you,

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Speaker 4: thank you.

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Speaker 1: I'm the bigger one. I'm the bigger man here.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, hey Tartle fans, your team's legit like we've

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Speaker 4: been waiting to see it all season. The question is

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Speaker 4: can you defend at a high level consistently. That's been

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Speaker 4: the whole bugaboo, and we've seen stretches. Again, I think

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Speaker 4: there's been les within that last five game winning straight.

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Speaker 4: I think they've been aided by some favorable shooting luck there.

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Speaker 4: But it's a team that can defend right.

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Speaker 2: Like.

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Speaker 4: It's not a very physical team or an overly athletic team,

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Speaker 4: but it's athletic enough. It's long enough with guys like

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Speaker 4: you know, with leaky Black and I mean did they

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Speaker 4: have pieces to defend and get Keith stops? And they

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Speaker 4: have to so yeah. And also look back at the

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Speaker 4: historicals U and C tot in four against the spread

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Speaker 4: in this tournament the last six years, so I know

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Speaker 4: it's a new coach. I don't like looking a lot

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Speaker 4: at those historicals with a new regime in place. But

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Speaker 4: but I think worth noting that this team just unc

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Speaker 4: typically and do too, plays very well here the SEC

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Speaker 4: tournament was it though?

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Speaker 2: The whole narrative though for a while that like what

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Speaker 2: Roy Williams doesn't care about the tournament.

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Speaker 4: That's what I thought too, But like his Splitzer, have

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Speaker 4: been good the last few years, like it used to

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Speaker 4: be called the I think Duke fans potentially called the

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Speaker 4: Duke Invitational for a while.

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Speaker 1: But I mean they've been good.

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Speaker 4: I think they're eight and five last six years strong

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Speaker 4: cover margins, So yeah, I mean, k I think has

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Speaker 4: a good feel for how to maneuver this type of tournaments.

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Speaker 4: Same with Jimmy behind right, I meank you. We just

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Speaker 4: talked about why they've been so good. But without Jesse

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Speaker 4: Edwards and Benny Williams upfront, I think that's that's a

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Speaker 4: hard stay away.

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Speaker 2: Yep. Yeah, I mean Carolina just forces absolutely no turnovers whatsoever.

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Speaker 2: So teams aren't gonna cough it up, but they don't

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Speaker 2: foul that. Those two things kind of go hand in hand,

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Speaker 2: and they're going to clean up your misses. So if

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Speaker 2: you're the second the nation and defensive rebund percent as

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Speaker 2: if you're having an off day, it's gonna be tough sledding.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they make you beat them. I think that's, you know,

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Speaker 4: somewhat admirable.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 4: It's sometimes a little bit too soft, a little too

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Speaker 4: they give you too much, But I mean I think

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Speaker 4: that's at least it's a repeatable blueprint, I guess defensively.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, still questions on the perimeter, yeah, do you

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Speaker 2: have a target one of these? I mean, the first

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Speaker 2: round games are disgusting and a lot of unscertainly pit

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Speaker 2: BC Consontency State, Louisville, Georgia Tech. Do you have anything

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Speaker 2: there or do you have a potential you know, we

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Speaker 2: also have Florida State Circus, which is a second round

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Speaker 2: game on Wednesday. Do you have a matchup that you

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Speaker 2: might be circling from a betting perspective or a potential

308
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Speaker 2: matchup down the line? Is it Virginia Tech against Notre Dame?

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Speaker 2: Is it somewhere else? What are your thoughts there?

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Speaker 4: Now, I'm with you, I don't really have a great

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Speaker 4: feel for the sides here. What I do like is

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Speaker 4: I might blindly bet all of these first round totals

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Speaker 4: since twenty sixteen forty two and thirty to the over

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Speaker 4: in the a SEC tournament. But you look at twenty eighteen,

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Speaker 4: the last time this was held in Barclays a venue.

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Speaker 4: I feel like we may not associate with like being

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Speaker 4: a shooter's paradise, right, It's like a more of a

318
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Speaker 4: cavernist NBA type arena, but it's in twenty eighteen though,

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Speaker 4: nine and five to the over with a lopping seven

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Speaker 4: point average cover margin to the over. I have a

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Speaker 4: lot of these teams play well for like buying into

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Speaker 4: that dynamic. I think there's a lot of good over

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Speaker 4: teams in that first matchup.

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Speaker 1: We've seen these.

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Speaker 4: First round overs play well so far in common tournament,

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Speaker 4: So that's kind of my angle there. I have no

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Speaker 4: feel like you on the sides. I'll probably just do

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Speaker 4: a small sprinkle on all of those, like I said,

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Speaker 4: those opening round and then the first round overs into Wednesday,

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Speaker 4: excluding the back to back, so just FORLID Saint Syracuse

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Speaker 4: on Wednesday, and then those three first round on Tuesday.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Louisville's that they're they're hard to fine, like which

333
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Speaker 2: who's gonna show up, who's gonna play, who's gonna not

334
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Speaker 2: be dressed? And I might take in some of the

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Speaker 2: Clemson NC State I don't. I mean, maybe this is

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Speaker 2: a fresh start for NC State and they can't think

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Speaker 2: that they can make win a couple of games. I mean,

338
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Speaker 2: if they beat clemps. You know, if you beat Clemson,

339
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Speaker 2: it's not impossible. They can't beat Virginia Tech in a

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Speaker 2: Notre Dame. The problem is the team just it just

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Speaker 2: doesn't defend. It doesn't watch NC State. I mean, man,

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Speaker 2: they are absolutely miserable defensively. They also had a just

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Speaker 2: a massive injury early in the season, losing Manny Bates,

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Speaker 2: and I think that just changed the complexion of that

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Speaker 2: team throughout.

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Speaker 1: But the.

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Speaker 2: Offenses can score, but the defense is impoverished, to say

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Speaker 2: the least. But I might take into that one, but

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Speaker 2: I agree with that. I think they're from a future's perspective.

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Speaker 2: It's Virginia Tech or Virginia if you want to grind

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Speaker 2: it out with Virginia. Look, they beat Duke, they played

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Speaker 2: Duke Tough twice. They're gonna be in like the two

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Speaker 2: things they like these they're gonna be low possession games.

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Speaker 2: Virginia Tech shoots a lot of threes. They're gonna be

355
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Speaker 2: in every game, which you like. And they're gonna be desperate.

356
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Speaker 2: They're well coached so and they're in the bottom half

357
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Speaker 2: of the Duke. So if you want to go both,

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Speaker 2: I say go for it if you like. If you

359
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Speaker 2: prefer one to the other, then take a shot. I

360
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Speaker 2: think that's where the value is not not them. I

361
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Speaker 2: was hoping for a little better lines.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, Agris here I did to stick out. I'm

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Speaker 1: with you. There not great prices, but I think those

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Speaker 1: the two best that are available.

365
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Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, let's move on to the mat at tournament,

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Speaker 2: the Metro Atlantic. The This will take place March eight

367
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Speaker 2: through twelfth in Atlantic City, New Jersey, at Boardwalk Call

368
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Speaker 2: defending champ Iona, You said the ACC Duke Fantas used

369
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Speaker 2: to call it the a SEC Tournament, the Duke Invitational. Well,

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Speaker 2: this is the Iona Invitational. They have won it five

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Speaker 2: straight years. They were a nine seed last year. They've

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Speaker 2: also been a one, A four, a three, and a two,

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Speaker 2: so they've done it from all all seeds. They will

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Speaker 2: be a one seed this year. All eleven teams make it.

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Speaker 2: Top five teams get a buye. That's Iona, Peters, Sienna,

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Speaker 2: Monmouth and Niagara will be three first round games. As

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Speaker 2: far as odds for the tournament, Iona favorite plus one

378
00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:31,840
Speaker 2: fifteen Saint Peter's, it was kind of surging. They're deep,

379
00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:35,600
Speaker 2: they're excellent defense. Offense can get questionable times, but in

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Speaker 2: defo and in company they can defend. They've won four straight.

381
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Speaker 2: Monmouth their plus five hundred Peters's plus three eighty monmoth

382
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Speaker 2: if they were a covering machinery in the year they

383
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Speaker 2: dealt with some COVID. They just haven't been right since

384
00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,960
Speaker 2: they've lost a bunch down in the stretch. They don't

385
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Speaker 2: have a bench. They're very experienced, but I just worry

386
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Speaker 2: about what I've seen from that team of late, a

387
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Speaker 2: lot of head scratching performances. Maybe this is the fresh

388
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Speaker 2: start that they need. Then it goes Marrist You know,

389
00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:04,280
Speaker 2: they have a bench and a twoka their freshman point guard.

390
00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:07,239
Speaker 2: It's fun to watch Sienna. I just don't trust their ow.

391
00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:09,520
Speaker 2: They're twenty to one, Maris Is fifteen to one, Niagara

392
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,880
Speaker 2: twenty to one, Fairfield twenty to one, and then you're

393
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Speaker 2: getting down into some real long shots. The interesting part

394
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Speaker 2: about Iona here is they lost three games in the

395
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Speaker 2: league play all year, all on the road. They lost

396
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Speaker 2: to Manhattan, Niagara, and Sienna. That could actually be their

397
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Speaker 2: path to the title, which is which is something they

398
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Speaker 2: keep in mind. But when you first look at this bracket,

399
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Speaker 2: is it just as simple as every year and then

400
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:39,119
Speaker 2: just take Iona plus one fifteen or is there some

401
00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:41,080
Speaker 2: assistance here in potential values to more elms?

402
00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:42,919
Speaker 4: Yeah, you kind of have to look at this iona

403
00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:46,080
Speaker 4: versus the field, and yeah, I kind of think I

404
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:47,920
Speaker 4: own it. Minus one ten is a pretty cheap price.

405
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,320
Speaker 4: That's my favorite bed of the bunch. But you talked

406
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,760
Speaker 4: about Mama, I think this is a prime time reset

407
00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,160
Speaker 4: hit the you know, let's let's have a whole new,

408
00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:01,840
Speaker 4: you know, reinvigorated mindset after that tough stretch coming out

409
00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 4: of the COVID pause. King your Ice was just like, man,

410
00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:04,879
Speaker 4: I don't know what the hell happened.

411
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Speaker 1: We were a.

412
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Speaker 4: Juggernaut before we come back from break and they've had flashes,

413
00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,159
Speaker 4: you know, the latter part of the second half. They

414
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:14,399
Speaker 4: also had a couple of injuries there with Chivar Reynolds,

415
00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 4: I think Walker Miller up front there. So I think

416
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,720
Speaker 4: they're primed to break out and I think we're prime

417
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Speaker 4: to see the version that was so dominant in non conference.

418
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Speaker 4: I think they were one of the best non kind

419
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:27,160
Speaker 4: of ATS teams in the country there for the first

420
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Speaker 4: seven or so weeks.

421
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Speaker 2: At the years.

422
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Speaker 4: Yeah, it was absolutely insane, and I mean this team is,

423
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 4: i mean uber talented. The key thing that they're going

424
00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:39,359
Speaker 4: to probably a personal prospective, key thing to watch his

425
00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,199
Speaker 4: Nicky Rudy should be back. He's a really important defender

426
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:44,320
Speaker 4: for them. It did not play in the finale. I

427
00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:46,560
Speaker 4: think they're just resting me. It was a kind of

428
00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:48,840
Speaker 4: a minor ankle thing. All the mom and fans like

429
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:50,600
Speaker 4: rave about how important he means to that defense. So

430
00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 4: getting him back is a sneaky big part of this

431
00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:55,439
Speaker 4: handicap for me. But again, similar to the Virginia Virginia

432
00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:57,640
Speaker 4: technotic we talked about the acc I don't think Mama

433
00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,840
Speaker 4: plus five hundred, especially on the same side of the bracket,

434
00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 4: is iona is a great price so.

435
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:06,000
Speaker 2: Well, especially with how any consistently've and you're not They're

436
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:08,240
Speaker 2: gonna have to win, you know, three games in three

437
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:13,000
Speaker 2: days because they play on the Thursday Wednesday, and then

438
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:14,960
Speaker 2: you know it's not a given that they'll beat Niagara

439
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,320
Speaker 2: with the way that they've been playing. So you might

440
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:22,640
Speaker 2: end up having more value on a money line rollover with.

441
00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:24,680
Speaker 1: Mond right, yeah, yeah, agree.

442
00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:27,520
Speaker 2: And then leave you some flexibility. And then the problem

443
00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:30,480
Speaker 2: with doing that though is that it would probably not

444
00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:32,600
Speaker 2: work out. You have the value and doing the money

445
00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:35,719
Speaker 2: line rollover is if you're really confident that I own

446
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,280
Speaker 2: is gonna win, that it's gonna make sense. But if

447
00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:40,320
Speaker 2: like Manhattan knocks off Iona, then all of a sudden,

448
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,120
Speaker 2: Man miss playing Manhattan in the semis, then your money

449
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 2: line rollover probably doesn't make sense and you can exactly

450
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 2: have to one. But I think Ion is probably safe

451
00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:52,119
Speaker 2: to get through there against Manhattan or Rider, you know,

452
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:54,720
Speaker 2: down in the bottom half of the bracket. Peters is

453
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 2: plus three eighty overall. They're the two seed that said

454
00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:00,240
Speaker 2: there one four straight and excellent defense think top forty. Yes,

455
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 2: we're on adjusted defensive efficiency and ken PM. You know,

456
00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:06,920
Speaker 2: with Casey the anchor in the middle, they cannot shoot.

457
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 2: Their offense is just ugly to watch at times, but

458
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 2: they do grab just a ton of offensive boards. It's

459
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 2: kind of how they live on the offensive end. They

460
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,480
Speaker 2: just try to and then just suffocate them the defensive

461
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 2: end and pull out wins. Defense has been playing a

462
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:23,480
Speaker 2: lot better of late. I just don't know if they

463
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 2: can get enough stops on Iona if they do meet,

464
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 2: But I you know, because I own is going to

465
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,159
Speaker 2: score some and I just don't think that I just

466
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 2: don't think that they can keep up after watching both

467
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 2: regular season meetings that IONA won. But if you think

468
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:42,920
Speaker 2: that Iona is a little vulnerable. Maybe Peters is the look,

469
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,119
Speaker 2: but you know, there's there's some tricky teams in the

470
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,359
Speaker 2: bottom half. I think I would need more than plus

471
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:51,440
Speaker 2: three eighty. When I evaluated this conference before this podcast,

472
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 2: I had I own a circle too. I will be

473
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 2: on Iona plus one fifteen. I think that they should

474
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 2: actually be a slight favorite.

475
00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:00,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, Fandil has them at minus won ten DraftKings plus fifteen,

476
00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 4: So yeah, you can line shop and give them plus money.

477
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 1: I think that's the right play.

478
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, but do you do you just not trust the

479
00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:12,200
Speaker 2: Saint Peter's defense. Can Marist or any of these teams

480
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 2: in the bottom half make a run or they just

481
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:17,440
Speaker 2: I think they're all flawed on their own right, Yeah, right,

482
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:20,639
Speaker 2: it's it's it's tough. But do you are you have

483
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 2: you become more of a fan of Peters during their

484
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 2: late season kind of a bit of a.

485
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 4: Search, Yeah, I guess so. I mean, really, the way

486
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 4: the conference chuck out was pretty in lockstup with what

487
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 4: a lot of us have preseason, right. I think we

488
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 4: looked at this conference the end of the year, which

489
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 4: I think is relevant context for conference tournament assessment. Just

490
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,680
Speaker 4: typically I like to look at teams that underachieved. I mean,

491
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,359
Speaker 4: just how many bad teams have we seen cover multiple

492
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 4: games in a row in these early conference tournaments, like

493
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,360
Speaker 4: the Little Rocks of the world. So like you look

494
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 4: at a team like maybe Canecious the bottom part of

495
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 4: the bracket. But again, there really wasn't any like bad

496
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,159
Speaker 4: bad teams in this conference. Like we saw teams that

497
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 4: looked terrible to start, kind of improved late, teams that

498
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:00,880
Speaker 4: I looked a little too hot, fluky a star kind

499
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 4: of throw Marris maybe in there, although they you know they.

500
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:07,919
Speaker 2: It has to be the highest rating of like if

501
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 2: you had a rate inconsistency on all the conferences, it's like, yes, agree,

502
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 2: what are you getting on a nighted basis, It's crazy,

503
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 2: it's so right.

504
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 4: And again that tends to be a good environment for

505
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,119
Speaker 4: betting these futures. But I look at these prices, I

506
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 4: just don't love you can write talking maybe in the

507
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 4: momth at a I see plus six point fifty at

508
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,360
Speaker 4: FanDuel right now, but again just on the same side

509
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 4: as I own up.

510
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 1: Not a not a fan of that.

511
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:35,120
Speaker 2: And three games and three days with no bench yep

512
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 2: is an ideal, But they're very I mean they're very experiencing.

513
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 2: We've seen it. It's not four or five games in

514
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:43,119
Speaker 2: four or five days, but it's something worth noting. I agree.

515
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 2: I think iona is the play here. And if you

516
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:50,120
Speaker 2: if like I just came to you with a gun

517
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 2: and said you have to bet either're all favorites or

518
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 2: all underdogs for this entire tournament. You're you're saying underdogs, right.

519
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,160
Speaker 1: That's underdogs. Yeah, No, that's kind of our whole.

520
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:00,119
Speaker 4: I think this year we basically said, any road a

521
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:02,880
Speaker 4: dog in this conference, just bet it. And that's usually

522
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,399
Speaker 4: a pretty good take his home courts. Basically nothing. Well

523
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 4: that's my mood point because now at Atlantic City, but still, yeah,

524
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,400
Speaker 4: the dogs play well in a high, very insvironment.

525
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 2: Yeah. All right, let's move on to our final conference

526
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 2: that we'll cover today, and that's the Big Sky Tournament,

527
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,919
Speaker 2: which will take place March ninth through the twelfth in Boise, Idaho.

528
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 2: The defending champ Eastern Washington the Groves Show, if you

529
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 2: remember that from last year, and then they went on

530
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 2: and gave Kansas a hell of a game. Eleven teams

531
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 2: make this conference tournament. Five get abye Montana State, who's

532
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 2: the overall one seed. Montana Southern Utah, Weaver and Northern Colorado.

533
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:44,399
Speaker 2: Here's another trivia question for you. Montana eleven titles, the

534
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 2: most of all time Big Sky Conference Tournament championships, Weaver

535
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,679
Speaker 2: the second most with ten. I think for years there

536
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,120
Speaker 2: was always just Weaver versus Montana. Yeah, it's a share

537
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 2: that when Damian Lillard was there, he just never could

538
00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 2: beat Montana, never got in the tournament, which we all were.

539
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 2: By the way, the last non I think, the last

540
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 2: non one seed, the least non one or two seed

541
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 2: to win, was Montana in twenty ten. I think there

542
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 2: were four. I mean, this conference has been dominated by

543
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 2: the top seeds, but it's a little more bounced. I

544
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 2: mean Montana and yeah, Montana and we were used to

545
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:20,399
Speaker 2: be just like head and shoulders above everyone else. You

546
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 2: would always get to the conference. So it's not the

547
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:27,200
Speaker 2: same here. But who so Montana is eleven? Yep, Weaver

548
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 2: has ten. Two teams are tied with four Big Sky

549
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 2: Conference Tournament championships. Can you name one?

550
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 1: I bet Idaho's one of them.

551
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,399
Speaker 2: Idaho is one correct. Ding Ding Ding Ding let the ding.

552
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:41,400
Speaker 4: Once upon a time this team was not so terrible.

553
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:42,959
Speaker 4: I guess they haven't been so terrible this year, but

554
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 4: they've been a frustrating bet for me the last two seeds.

555
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 4: I can have lost more money on Idaho games than

556
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 4: any other team, So.

557
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 1: Kind of tough.

558
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 2: Called the Vandals for a reason. Yeah, I mean this

559
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 2: conference had a little bit of craziness, too little just

560
00:25:57,560 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 2: on a night in a night out basis. I mean

561
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 2: idahope eat Montana Weaver in Eastern Washington and back to

562
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 2: back to back games recently, right, just to throw that

563
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 2: out there. But the other the other team with four

564
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 2: you want to take a guest, you'll never get it.

565
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 1: But in Arizona, No, I have no idea.

566
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 2: Weizy State has four Big Sky conferences.

567
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 4: Wow, ironic Where this field is right? Just Boise for

568
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,679
Speaker 4: the Yes, I think it's the fourth career around.

569
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's in fifty poise. But all right, so let's

570
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 2: take a look at the odds here. Montana State plus

571
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,400
Speaker 2: one ninety balanced team, well coached. I think we're both

572
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 2: a fan of sprinkle their plus one ninety Southern Utah

573
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 2: plus three fifty Weaber plus four ten Northern Colorado plus

574
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 2: five fifty Montana ten to one, Eastern Washington ten to one,

575
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 2: and you start getting down into the drags Portland State

576
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 2: forty eight to one. They play fast, they have a bench,

577
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 2: they try to turn you over. A lot of the

578
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 2: teams at the top don't have turnover issues, which kind

579
00:26:55,560 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 2: of works against Portland State here. It's interesting that Northern

580
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:04,400
Speaker 2: Colorado actually you know, they're plus five point fifty. They

581
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,119
Speaker 2: swept Southern Utah and the regular season one hundred to

582
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 2: ninety five and ninety one eighty one. Ye, get those

583
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:13,159
Speaker 2: scores in your mind because Northern Colorado all offense, no defense,

584
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 2: they want to play fast, and they can outscore you.

585
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,360
Speaker 2: Although they just lost at the buzzer to the Montana

586
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 2: State backups to close the year, but about anyone, not

587
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 2: even not even backups. And then Southern Utah swept Eastern Washington. UH.

588
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 2: The key with Southern Utah here though really good offense also,

589
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,719
Speaker 2: but Jones and Maren what is their status? Yes, so

590
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 2: they have injury issues as well. And then you go

591
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 2: to the top half to bracket with Montana State. Something.

592
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:39,880
Speaker 2: You tell the two seed Montana States to one seed

593
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 2: they would are gonna face either assuming they get through

594
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 2: their first game, they're gonna face either Weaver or Montana

595
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:52,439
Speaker 2: in UH round two. And they yeah, they lost to

596
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 2: both of them this year. Yep, just keep it and

597
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 2: we were Yeah, they both flit and then we were

598
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 2: in Montana split. So I think Montana State is the

599
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 2: best team in this conference. But am I in a

600
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:07,199
Speaker 2: hurry of that plus one ninety. No, a lot of

601
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 2: good offenses here. I think it's going to come down

602
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 2: to matchups and a lot of shooting variants. But what

603
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 2: do you see when you first look at this bracket.

604
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:15,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you.

605
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 4: Montana State, I think is the team I trust the most,

606
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 4: but it's no bargain at plus one ninety.

607
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 1: I'm with you.

608
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 4: It's a tough draw with Weber and Montana lurking in

609
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 4: that semi potential, the potential semi matchup. Weaver has been

610
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 4: on a complete tail spin.

611
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:29,159
Speaker 2: Man.

612
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 4: They had that terrible non con then they stepped into

613
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 4: conference play and then just flipped the light bulb on

614
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 4: and they were hummed along. They got Dante Bassett, the

615
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 4: former Florida transferred. You know, he was reinvigorated, playing like

616
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 4: his old dominant self and then just hit this tough,

617
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 4: tough stretch to close. As with Montana as well. So

618
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 4: I think both we were Montana's a fascinating first round matchup.

619
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 4: I think we see the winner of that game. I

620
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 4: think could be that could be like a catalyst to

621
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 4: a deep run from either Weaver or Montana. The two

622
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 4: teams I think that are just the perennial contenders in

623
00:28:57,640 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 4: this conference, right. You just talked about at the onsets

624
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 4: like you usually you go back historically, those the names

625
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 4: you're seeing at the end of the bracket, you know

626
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 4: on Saturday, when it's what all the marbles are being

627
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 4: played for. I was kind of looking at the winner

628
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 4: of that game and maybe just you know who wins

629
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 4: that matchup, and then I think they get a decent

630
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 4: draw with Montana State, even though the one see I

631
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 4: think it's actually a relatively vulnerable run seat compared to

632
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 4: Southern Utah and Northern Colorado the way they're playing lately.

633
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 4: So I went back and forth. But you mentioned the

634
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 4: injury concerned for Southern Utah too on the bottom half.

635
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 4: That one jumped out at first, But it seems like

636
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 4: Maren will play because he had in illness. I think

637
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 4: he's the more important of the two. You get one

638
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 4: of those two dudes back and you feel better about

639
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 4: your chances. I think they're a tough matchup for Olthern Colorado.

640
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 4: So I guess I'd lean Thunderbirds and then maybe one

641
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 4: of Weaver or Montana.

642
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 1: But nothing strong for me here either. I was again

643
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 1: the prices.

644
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 4: This might be one stuck where you want to do

645
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 4: the money line rollover thing with one of those teams

646
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 4: coming on Thursday.

647
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I might. I mean in Southern Utah,

648
00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 2: very very experienced team, which I think helps in this setting.

649
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 2: And so a lot of these teams in this conference

650
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 2: have no bench, like Northern Colorido doesn't have a bench

651
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 2: at all. Weiver doesn't have a bench, Eastern Washingt doesn't

652
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 2: wash bench. Yeah, which can come back to bite them,

653
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 2: especially like a team like Northern Colorida. That's one of

654
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 2: the things that gives me pause with them because Northern Colorado,

655
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 2: what they are three hundred and thirty fourth in benchments

656
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 2: and they play fast, so maybe legs are an issue.

657
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 2: But this is a team that can shoot the lights

658
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 2: out and they're you know, they're plus five fifty they

659
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 2: like I said, they swept Southern Utah and you know

660
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 2: they can outscore them. They can go in a shootout,

661
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 2: and then you have some injury concerns for Southern Utah.

662
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 2: So I think if you're if you want to target

663
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 2: Northern Colorado, maybe a money line rollover doesn't make sense

664
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 2: in case Southern Utah does have some injury concerns, but

665
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 2: Northern Colorado they just don't play any defense at all.

666
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 2: So like it's not a given that they're just gonna

667
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 2: get by Eastern Washington and or Northern Arizona, the winner

668
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 2: of that game they'll face. So that's that's kind of

669
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 2: what makes it tricky. I think I would want a

670
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 2: little bit more, but that's the only one that really

671
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 2: stuck out. Montana. I ultimately just don't trust their offense.

672
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 2: I know they won't turn it over, but they just

673
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 2: struggle to make shots at times, and they get no

674
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 2: offensive rebounds whatsoever. So I just, you know, ten to one.

675
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 2: You know, it was intriguing when I first looked at it,

676
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 2: and I said, well, this team already beat Montana State.

677
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 2: It's their rival. Brandon Whitney's an incredible, incredible on ball

678
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 2: defender if you haven't watched Montana. But I just don't

679
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 2: trust their offense, and so I think for me, it's

680
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 2: some of the uncertainty in the bottom half. I think

681
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 2: Northern Colorado is the look if anyone.

682
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 1: Here plus five fifty fand right, yeah.

683
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, plus five fifty and you just hope that they

684
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 2: are on, because when they're on, they can beat anyone

685
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 2: in this conference by outscoring them, as they did against

686
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 2: Southern Utah twice. And that's what you have to hope.

687
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 2: I mean, this is a team that's tenth in the

688
00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 2: nation and three point shooting at thirty eight point eighth

689
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 2: and two point percentage fourth overall and effective field goal percentage,

690
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 2: so the boys from Grilly can score. So uh, I

691
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 2: have a flyer.

692
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 1: I have a flyer here. I just heard it.

693
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 4: I just refreshed the fandom. I don't even even look

694
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 4: at this. At first Northern Arizona's plus fifty thousand, I mean,

695
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 4: I know they were an absolutely dumpster fired down the stretch.

696
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 1: Don't get me your.

697
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 4: Wrong, but you look at that draw on the bottom

698
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 4: half where we're just talking about how there's so much

699
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 4: uncertainty with some injury concerns Northern Colorado at Eastern Washington.

700
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,760
Speaker 4: The two teams did have to potentially beat. If this

701
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 4: stupid fairy tale comes to fruition, I don't know. It's

702
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 4: obviously a complete long shot, but plus fifty thousand, he

703
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:40,800
Speaker 4: might gidness ten to win five K. I think that's

704
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 4: probably worth just a little bit of a sprinkle. Now

705
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 4: I've got some pocket change laying around. Well, like you're

706
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:48,719
Speaker 4: telling me that they're they're there. They're twice so Adaho

707
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 4: States plus twenty two thousand, but Naus plus fifty thousand, Like,

708
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 4: look at the draws.

709
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 1: You can't tell me.

710
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 4: Idahost States twice as good of a favorite to even

711
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 4: get to the semis there. So, I don't know, just

712
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 4: a weird pricing, inconsistent and they have the best player

713
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 4: on the floor occasionally with Jalen Cone.

714
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I don't know, I'm reaching, I know.

715
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I don't hate it. I mean they won

716
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 2: at Montana. I have Montana to finish out of moneyline

717
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 2: parlay and they lost it over time. So they they flashed,

718
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 2: you know, they lost them. They lost by two at

719
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 2: Montana State.

720
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, they play right, it's not terrible.

721
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 2: So they've shown some flashes and then they've had some

722
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 2: complete duds of course as well. But yeah, I mean

723
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 2: they're a really young team, so you know you're gonna

724
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:31,000
Speaker 2: get some very and they shoot a lot of threes.

725
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 2: Which is good. If you're gonna take a long shot

726
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 2: like this and you have a player like Cone, it

727
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 2: can go off. I think some of the they play

728
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 2: a lot of freshmen. You know, they've they started to

729
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:41,960
Speaker 2: improve a little bit down the stretch, so I don't

730
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 2: hate it. You want to fly Northern Arizona the Lumberjacks,

731
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 2: I think that's the way to look there.

732
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 1: Plus fIF two thousand lock yep, all right.

733
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 2: Thanks Matt for joining me. Enjoyed the ACC tournament. Good

734
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 2: luck to you. Dookie's bounced back. I hope everyone enjoyed

735
00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 2: the info. We have much more felt coming, and make

736
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 2: sure you check out the guys from the Three Men

737
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 2: Leave on Twitter as well well. Big Bets on Campus

738
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 2: live throughout March. But I have another episode coming up

739
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 2: here with Jim. We're gonna cover four more conferences and

740
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 2: another episode tomorrow. We're gonna get to I think five conferences.

741
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 2: Just tons of content all throughout March. Appreciate listen to

742
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 2: make sure you subscribe, unsubscribe, subscribe, leave a review. We'll

743
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 2: do some giveaway soon. Tell a friend ton enemy. Appreciate

744
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 2: you listening. Good luck to March. Let's get it rolling.

745
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:26,960
Speaker 2: Enjoy the madness. Cheers Aga,