1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's get an update 7 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:25,120 Speaker 1: on how we should be thinking about these market conditions. 8 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:27,319 Speaker 1: We do that today with a good friend of Bloomberg Radio, 9 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 1: Christina Hooper. She's a chief global market strategist at Investco. 10 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 1: They have a couple of shekels under management, one point 11 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 1: three billion dollars. Christina, thanks so much for joining us again. 12 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 1: All Right, So we've had a couple of days of 13 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:42,239 Speaker 1: some sell offs here, and I guess people are just 14 00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:46,480 Speaker 1: kind of, you know, asking, just casually, is this something 15 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:48,360 Speaker 1: it's just a little bit of a pullback. What is 16 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 1: you know, a longer term bull market or is this 17 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 1: showing some cracks in what had been a pretty good 18 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 1: narrative for this market. I think it's a short term pullback, 19 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: and and quite frankly, I think we should have expected it. 20 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 1: Um what we saw was the ten year yield go 21 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 1: up significantly earlier this year, and markets react to it. 22 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 1: Reacted to it, particularly tech because of its higher valuations. 23 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:19,320 Speaker 1: It's more sensitive. UH. And then as yields back down, 24 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 1: there was this wave of relief and people started changing 25 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:26,320 Speaker 1: their expectations for the ten year For the rest of 26 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:30,959 Speaker 1: of UM, I've always expected that the ten year yield 27 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 1: will finish the year at two percent or higher, and 28 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:39,320 Speaker 1: that means some pressure on stocks, particularly tech stocks, as 29 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:44,760 Speaker 1: they digest UH those higher levels of rates. That doesn't 30 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 1: mean that this is the end UM. It just means 31 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 1: we're going through an adjustment period. So Critty Gouta was 32 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 1: on earlier though and told us, you know, the big 33 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 1: fang stocks are now sitting at the kind of valuations 34 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 1: we saw in two thousand nineteen. UM. Why you know 35 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 1: completely reset? Are aren't we still expecting UM the pandemic 36 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 1: trends to be sticky and hold as we reopen. Well, 37 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:14,960 Speaker 1: I think certainly some pandemic trends will be sticky. We 38 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 1: are going to see elevated e commerce sales going forward. 39 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 1: As one example, we are going to see more of 40 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 1: a hybrid model for many employees. They're going to be 41 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 1: working from home more often. Uh so. So certainly some 42 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 1: trends hold, even if they moderate a bit. But we're 43 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 1: also not factoring in that companies have significant cash on 44 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 1: balance sheets, and in an expansionary environment, they're likely to 45 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 1: spend more on investment, and I would argue more of 46 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: those investment dollars are going to go into tech. In fact, 47 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:54,520 Speaker 1: if we look at the last Federal Reserve basebook, the 48 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: Cleveland Said reported that some of its contacts indicated they 49 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 1: were planning to adopt more technology in lieu of more 50 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:06,239 Speaker 1: employees to keep up with demand, given that it's it's 51 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: been difficult to source employees. Yeah, Christina, that's kind of 52 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 1: where I wanted to go. I mean, we've now had 53 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: a couple of days to digest that, you know, exceptionally 54 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: weak jobs report on Friday one of the narratives that's 55 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 1: I think finding its way into the marketplaces. Boy, if 56 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:22,839 Speaker 1: corporate America wants to get people back to work, they're 57 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 1: gonna have to raise pay and that might cause some 58 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 1: wage inflation into this economy. How do you think about 59 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 1: Friday and maybe what it might mean going forward for 60 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: the economy and for policymakers. Well, I certainly believe there 61 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 1: is some truth UH to the argument that we are. UM. 62 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:46,840 Speaker 1: We have generous fiscal stimulus, including generous unemployment benefits, and 63 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 1: that is one deterrent to people returning to work. But 64 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 1: we have to recognize that that is a relatively short 65 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 1: term deterrent. It ends in September, and in fact, some 66 00:03:56,480 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 1: states are ending it as soon as June. So but 67 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 1: there are other reasons. Right, We've got health safety concerns, 68 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 1: We've got public transportation schedules that are UM not back 69 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 1: to normal yet, and we have childcare issues for many Americans. 70 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 1: All those issues are very short term in nature. So yes, 71 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 1: we're already starting to see wage increases in some industries 72 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:20,720 Speaker 1: in some regions, but I don't think we're going to 73 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 1: see any kind of traumatic overall increase in wages. There 74 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:29,679 Speaker 1: should be more workers coming online in the coming months. 75 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 1: What about the idea that growth and you know, earnings, 76 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,799 Speaker 1: economic growth and earnings growth has peaked in this quarter 77 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 1: or is peaking as we speak. I absolutely disagree with that. UM. 78 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 1: We are just beginning what I think is going to 79 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 1: be a very strong economic acceleration, and so I don't 80 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 1: believe earnings have peaked. UM. I don't think we're anywhere 81 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 1: in you're peaking right now? Alright, Christina, what are the 82 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:58,840 Speaker 1: sectors that you guys are doing the most work in 83 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:05,159 Speaker 1: right now? Well, of course, our view is that in 84 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:08,360 Speaker 1: in an environment like this where the economy is accelerating, 85 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:12,920 Speaker 1: typically we're going to see cyclicals outperform, and that's likely 86 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 1: to continue through this year. But that doesn't mean that 87 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:22,279 Speaker 1: we want to uh completely dismiss or overlook the growth 88 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:25,920 Speaker 1: side of the equation. In fact, days like today remind 89 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:31,040 Speaker 1: us that there can be valuation opportunities created in this 90 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:36,600 Speaker 1: kind of environment, especially for tech. Now are we getting 91 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 1: Are we now at a point where tech is a 92 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: screening by no um? But it certainly looks more attractive 93 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 1: today than it did look a few days ago, and 94 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: it could look more attractive in a few more days. 95 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 1: So for those with a long term investment horizon, which 96 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: I hope that everyone has um, this could be an 97 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 1: opportunity to pick up some some really attractive names at 98 00:05:57,440 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 1: lower prices. How important is it by the way that 99 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 1: Biden gets his infrastructure his spending plans through, Well, we 100 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: certainly already have a very robust environment in terms of 101 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: physical stimulus. If we look at the US now versus 102 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 1: how much UM we saw in the way of fiscal 103 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 1: outlays during global financial crisis to the percentage of GDP. 104 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: We're doing much better now. Um So it's not as important, 105 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 1: but it would be nice to have Christina. Thanks so 106 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: much for joining us. Christina Hooper is the chief Global 107 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 1: market strategist at Investo, with more than a trillion dollars 108 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 1: more than a trillion and a third under management. This 109 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. Let's get over now to Mark Nelson. He's 110 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 1: the CEO of of Tableau UM, which can hardly be 111 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 1: considered a small cap. They were bought for more than 112 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:55,279 Speaker 1: fifteen billion dollars by Salesforce back in pre pandemic? Was 113 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:58,280 Speaker 1: that that deal? Mark joins us on the future of 114 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 1: enterprise technology and how analytics can transform business. Those are 115 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:05,840 Speaker 1: kind of jargon e taglines there, Mark, But what are 116 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 1: you really doing to change the way people work day 117 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 1: by day? Yeah? Thanks for having me this morning. Um So. 118 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: Our mission here at Tableau has always been to help 119 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 1: people see and understand data. We're at a point in 120 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 1: the universe where the ability to gather data, store data, 121 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 1: process data, and then look at it and make decisions 122 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 1: from it has really introduced something that is as transformational 123 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 1: as the microscope or the telescope. It really lets you 124 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 1: see things about the world around you that have kind 125 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 1: of always been there, but you've never had the ability 126 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 1: to see it. And our mission is really to provide 127 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:47,119 Speaker 1: a tool that lets lets people work with that data, 128 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 1: understand that data, and answer questions in their day to 129 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 1: day life. Not just analysts, but every knowledge worker as 130 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 1: they're doing their jobs, being able to see the data 131 00:07:56,840 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: that's relevant to them, understand it and make decisions be 132 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 1: done it. Mark, how has your business of Tableau? How 133 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 1: did it change during the pandemic? Has it been materially 134 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 1: changed during the pandemic? Of course they got bought exactly. Yeah, well, 135 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 1: so to two separate questions that I can talk about. 136 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: So during the pandemic, like the last year, has has 137 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 1: made every business a go through a digital transformation if 138 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 1: they weren't already, And the heart of every digital transformation 139 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 1: is a data transformation. Things have been changing so fast 140 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:32,959 Speaker 1: in the world and for every business. The businesses that 141 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 1: have thrived to been the ones have been able to 142 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 1: empirically measure what's going on in their business and and 143 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 1: just react to it so much faster. That need to 144 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:46,199 Speaker 1: be able to see, understand, and react and make decisions 145 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 1: based on data has been huge, and we've really seen 146 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 1: that for our customers everywhere, from your customers who are 147 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:56,080 Speaker 1: quickly adopting a digital model and e commerce to those 148 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 1: dealing with the front line of the pandemic and trying 149 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 1: to get out COVID data and trying to to validate 150 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 1: vaccines on the acquisition. You know, the combination of Tableau 151 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 1: and Salesforce together um is like putting p bar and 152 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: chocolate together, right, Like you take the amazing Customer three 153 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 1: sixty application suite from Salesforce that works on and generates 154 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:19,319 Speaker 1: some of the most valuable data for a business and 155 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 1: Tableau that let's you see and understand that data and 156 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 1: get answers from that data, and you just have this 157 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 1: ability to do things you were never able to do before, 158 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 1: to really get a sense of your business and that 159 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:32,079 Speaker 1: sense of where your business is going that you were 160 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 1: never able to do before. So those two things, and 161 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:38,080 Speaker 1: you know, temporarily related, but have been great and I 162 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 1: mean I love that. So Tableau was started, I think 163 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 1: at least in part with help in the Defense Department right, 164 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 1: the US and Stanford. Obviously everything starts at Stanford. But 165 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 1: Mark Benioff calls the company his brother from another mother, 166 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 1: which I think is pretty cool. And now you're doing 167 00:09:55,679 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 1: Now you're helping to UM try and attack the racial 168 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 1: inequality problem, the sort of diversity and inclusion problems as well. 169 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 1: How does that work? Yeah? For sure. So data is 170 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:12,719 Speaker 1: so useful on helping with these large societal problems, right 171 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 1: that are so emotionally charged and can get wrapped up 172 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:21,199 Speaker 1: in in a whole bunch of things. Data is our superpower, right. 173 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 1: What we bring to that is the ability to you know, 174 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: really look at data and understand it, to help understand 175 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 1: what the problems are, UM, what solutions can be found 176 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:36,559 Speaker 1: for these and how effective those solutions are. And so 177 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 1: during this we have launched the Racial Equity Data Hub 178 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 1: along with our our partners like policy Link, to really 179 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 1: provide data and to do a couple of things. One 180 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 1: is to democratize access to that data so a whole 181 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: bunch of people can help work on these really hard problems. 182 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: To de advertise that data so that you can really 183 00:10:56,800 --> 00:11:00,080 Speaker 1: get down to which which groups are really being a 184 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:02,840 Speaker 1: acted by this, and then ultimately to be able to 185 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 1: let people see data about these problems, so again we 186 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,680 Speaker 1: can help find solutions and measure the efficacy of those 187 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:11,960 Speaker 1: solutions as they're implemented. Thanks so much for joining us. 188 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 1: We really appreciate it. Mark Nelson, see you of Tableau 189 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: talk to us about, you know, enterprise computing, particularly as 190 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 1: you know, during this pandemic, there's been such a digitization 191 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 1: of so many businesses, more than than before, and of 192 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 1: course that generates a tremendous amount of data, and that 193 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:31,439 Speaker 1: generates demand and in the need for management teams to 194 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:33,960 Speaker 1: get a real handle on that data and what it 195 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 1: means for their businesses, and the good folks at Tableau 196 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:41,720 Speaker 1: help with that. Now, let's bring in Brad McMillan. He's 197 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 1: the chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network. They have 198 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 1: about two hundred and thirty three billion dollars in assets 199 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 1: under management. And let me first ask you about this. 200 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: I think the word sell off has been overused a 201 00:11:56,400 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 1: little bit. Certainly, markets are down one and a half 202 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:00,719 Speaker 1: percent on the day out in the S and P. 203 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:03,959 Speaker 1: They were down yesterday as well. Does this look like 204 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 1: we're going into a correction to you, Brad or um, 205 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:10,640 Speaker 1: how do you judge what is mostly really a big 206 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:14,640 Speaker 1: tech slump, and I think that's exactly right. The tech 207 00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 1: companies have gotten ahead of themselves a bit um they're 208 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 1: pulling back, you know. I don't think this is anything 209 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 1: out of the ordinary. There's a lot of talk about 210 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:26,960 Speaker 1: inflation going up, but this isn't really news. There's nothing 211 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:29,439 Speaker 1: news out there, so I think this is just normal action. 212 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:31,439 Speaker 1: I don't see this. I think this is the start 213 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:34,839 Speaker 1: of anything worse. All right, So where are you, Brad 214 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 1: in terms of where you're looking to allocate capital here? 215 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 1: I mean in the equity markets. It's that pull and 216 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 1: push between you know. I'm sticking with those big cap 217 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 1: growth names. They've worked so well for me since the 218 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 1: financial crisis. Really, if you think back that far, or 219 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 1: do I play that rotation trade, that reopen trade? Where 220 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 1: are you kind of looking these days? I think the 221 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 1: rotation trade makes a lot of sense. Not that the 222 00:12:56,760 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 1: big you know, tech megacaps aren't going to do well, 223 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:02,560 Speaker 1: of course they are, but that's what investors expect. What 224 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 1: you want to do is play where investors aren't looking yet. 225 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,680 Speaker 1: So when you look at financials, for example, you have 226 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:11,080 Speaker 1: banks that are all of a sudden starting to make money, 227 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 1: and as the economy reopens, they're going to be in 228 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 1: a position to make more. You look at housing, yes, 229 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:18,320 Speaker 1: that's a story that's gotten a lot of press, but 230 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 1: the millennials are moving out to the suburbs in a 231 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:23,880 Speaker 1: big way. In other words, let's gate to where the 232 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 1: puck is going, not where the puck is and that's 233 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:30,199 Speaker 1: the rotation track. What do you think about the banks? 234 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:34,199 Speaker 1: You know, um, they have they're on the upside today 235 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 1: and they've had some momentum lately with the cyclicals, but um, 236 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 1: we're not getting any indication that rates are going to 237 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 1: rise within the next couple of years. And when you 238 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:47,120 Speaker 1: look at the banks business model, historically that's been a 239 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 1: red flag, not question. But then when you start to 240 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 1: look at banks and financial service firms more generally, they're 241 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:57,200 Speaker 1: moving away from interest rate driven revenue generation. They're moving 242 00:13:57,240 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 1: more towards speed. And as you move to a more 243 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 1: auductized financial economy, you know, some of the biggest financial platforms, 244 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:09,239 Speaker 1: you know, the major banks, for example, are uniquely positioned 245 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 1: to start to change that business model. And I think 246 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 1: that's exactly what you're seeing. So not only will it 247 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 1: be a more um more reliable revenue stream. It also 248 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 1: frees them from the curinay of the interest rate cycle. 249 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 1: That story is not done yet, but that's where they're headed. 250 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 1: I think that's part of what's driving this and taking 251 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 1: it away from the interest rate story. Brad. One of 252 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 1: the concerns out there is taxes and how this tax 253 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 1: scheme in this country may change going forward, both at 254 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 1: the corporate level, uh and at the personal level. How 255 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 1: do you think about that? Well, I look at it 256 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 1: this way. If you look at the if you look 257 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:50,360 Speaker 1: at the Biden tax proposal, some of the analyzes I've 258 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 1: seen says that, okay, that could hit SMP earnings similar 259 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:58,200 Speaker 1: between five and ten percent depending on sect. Okay, fair enough, 260 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: and you know if you just kind of eight line 261 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:03,760 Speaker 1: that that could knock some points off the market. But again, 262 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 1: that's not a big deal in the broad scheme of things. 263 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 1: And when you start to think about what's actually going 264 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 1: to happen, which probably isn't what's proposed, and then you 265 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 1: start to compare that with the time frame and how 266 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 1: earnings are likely to increase over that time frame, I 267 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:20,640 Speaker 1: don't think there's gonna be a material impact over time. 268 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 1: There might be a glitch, but we've got a lot 269 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 1: of cushion here to absorb that if it happens, and 270 00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 1: it hasn't happened yet. What's the biggest headwind, what's the 271 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:34,560 Speaker 1: biggest risk that you're that you're watching out for. I'm 272 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 1: watching employment. One of the things that UM is assumed 273 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 1: in a lot of analyzes, including mind, is that we're 274 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 1: going to see job growth, you know, bounce back, and 275 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:47,360 Speaker 1: we're going to be back to something like normal employment, 276 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 1: not full employment, something like normal at the end of 277 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 1: the year. But one of the things that came up 278 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 1: with the most recent jobs report, I look at the number, 279 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 1: I'm not worried about the number because a lot of 280 00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 1: that is seasonal adjustments, and if you look at non 281 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 1: seasonally adjusted numbers were right on tracks. I'm not worried 282 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:07,160 Speaker 1: about that. But one of the questions is are people 283 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 1: really willing to go back to work? And I think 284 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 1: that's something that a lot of us, me included, haven't 285 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: thought about enough. So job growth is going to be 286 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 1: the key for the rest of the year. Are you 287 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 1: concerned about wage inflation coming into this economy? Not really. 288 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 1: And the reason I say that is when you look 289 00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 1: at wage inflation. First of all, it's been depressed for 290 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 1: the past couple of decades, so you know, I think 291 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: I think some catch up here is frankly overdo. From 292 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 1: an economic standpoint. You'll hear a lot about the effects 293 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 1: on inflation, which I don't think it's necessarily the case 294 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 1: because we don't have the transmission mechanisms like unions and 295 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 1: wage price agreements that we had in the seventies. But 296 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 1: more to the more to the point that money is 297 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: going to be spent, that's actually gonna be additive to growth. 298 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 1: Those people are buying large going to spend the money 299 00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,200 Speaker 1: and that's gonna help. I think it's a good thing, 300 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 1: all right, I really appreciate it. Brad McMillan, chief Investment 301 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:06,879 Speaker 1: Officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, giving us his thoughts on 302 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 1: the market. Still long that rotation trade. I want to 303 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:16,400 Speaker 1: bring in Margaret Franklin. She is the president and CEO 304 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:19,199 Speaker 1: of the c f A Institute, and so many of 305 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:22,639 Speaker 1: our listeners Margaret r c f A s or want 306 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:24,919 Speaker 1: to become c f AS. It's great time to have 307 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 1: you on because yes yesterday I was talking to a 308 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:30,399 Speaker 1: younger c f A and of course Paul Sweeney is 309 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 1: himself an older cf A. I was wondering, has the 310 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:40,240 Speaker 1: test gotten harder? Are you making it more difficult? Well, 311 00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:42,920 Speaker 1: I think it depends on what you've been focusing on. 312 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,879 Speaker 1: How long ago you wrote it um. Of course the 313 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:49,920 Speaker 1: test will seem a lot harder UM if you wrote 314 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:52,679 Speaker 1: it twenty years ago, just because the very nature of 315 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:56,960 Speaker 1: the capital market. So the quality and rigor are consistent, 316 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 1: but they do match what's going on in the market. 317 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:01,640 Speaker 1: So I know I would have to study pretty hard 318 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:04,879 Speaker 1: for the exams today, irrespective of already having my c 319 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:08,359 Speaker 1: f A charter. Margaret, I want to talk about a 320 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:11,880 Speaker 1: topic that's become much much bigger part of the investment process. 321 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,440 Speaker 1: That's E s G investing. You look at the environment, 322 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 1: social and governance here, how does the cf AS to 323 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 1: think about E s G and making sure that you 324 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 1: know it's charter holders, you know what they need to know. Well, 325 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 1: you've touched on something that has been important for about 326 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 1: the last five years of note, but has been accelerating 327 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:39,480 Speaker 1: since Davos in UM two thousand January. And this is 328 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:43,120 Speaker 1: an excellent example of what is now required of all 329 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:47,880 Speaker 1: investment professionals, which is lifelong, continuous learning anybody five years 330 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:51,200 Speaker 1: ago wouldn't have had the E s G skills broadly 331 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 1: speaking that are required now from a portfolio perspective. So 332 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,480 Speaker 1: in addition to the c f A charter, we have 333 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:02,360 Speaker 1: launched this year E s G certificate. It was created 334 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,920 Speaker 1: by our c f A u K Society UM and 335 00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 1: we've taken that global in the last two months and 336 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:14,280 Speaker 1: it really enables UH investment professionals to have the skills 337 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 1: necessary to think about m E s G, incorporating them 338 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 1: into their portfolio, security selection and meeting client meeting client needs. 339 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,919 Speaker 1: So that's one aspect of hang on. Is that another 340 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 1: is that another year of study then or can c 341 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:36,160 Speaker 1: f A perspectives earned both at the same time. Anybody 342 00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: can write it and you can do it concurrent, although 343 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 1: UM I want to hear from those who are actually 344 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:43,919 Speaker 1: doing both at the same time and the tips and 345 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 1: tricks that they're doing for it. UM. Anybody can write it. 346 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 1: In fact, UM. The experience with the with it initially 347 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,399 Speaker 1: has been that it's a lot of non members and 348 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,760 Speaker 1: non charter holders that are writing it UM and that 349 00:19:55,840 --> 00:20:00,119 Speaker 1: really speaks to the very pervasive need for it. We 350 00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:04,159 Speaker 1: had conducted a study UM of a million linked in 351 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 1: profiles and in fact UM really less than eight thousand 352 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 1: people out of a million had listed UM E s 353 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:16,160 Speaker 1: G skills and then we simultaneously did a look at 354 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 1: ten thousand job postings and of that almost thirty we're 355 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 1: looking for those types of skills. So we know out 356 00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:26,200 Speaker 1: there that there is a real supply and demand gap 357 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,239 Speaker 1: and we think that the E s G Certificate does 358 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 1: a really fabulous job of meeting that. Margaret, I know, 359 00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:35,040 Speaker 1: UH May eighteenth, the Alpha Summit is going to take place. 360 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:37,199 Speaker 1: You're gonna be part of that. Tell us about the 361 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 1: summit and kind of what are some of the key 362 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:43,920 Speaker 1: topics you all plan to tackle there. Well, it's very exciting. 363 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 1: This is our annual conference, which will be virtual this 364 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:51,120 Speaker 1: year for investment professionals around the globe. UM. There will 365 00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 1: be live conversations on a broad range of topics and 366 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,880 Speaker 1: they're led by really change makers in the industry. So 367 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 1: to just UM leverage off the conversation we just had, 368 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:06,840 Speaker 1: we had our we have our net zero carbon emissions 369 00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:09,879 Speaker 1: conversation that will be with a panel of three but 370 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:14,439 Speaker 1: most notably Mary Robinson, the former Prime Minister from Ireland 371 00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 1: UH and Special Envoy to UM Special Envoy to the 372 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 1: u N on Climate is going to be part of 373 00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:25,119 Speaker 1: that conversation and in our preparation for it, one of 374 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:27,120 Speaker 1: the things she said was, this is the most important 375 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 1: year coming up to Cup twenty six in probably one 376 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 1: of the most important moments in time for humankind UM. 377 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:36,439 Speaker 1: And so it's really getting the right people at the 378 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:40,639 Speaker 1: table for those important topics. We have Shiro Mazzouno, who 379 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:45,160 Speaker 1: is UN Special Envoy on Innovative Finance and Sustainable Investment, 380 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 1: and of course he's just come off of the UM 381 00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 1: the reformational Chief Investment Office for the world's largest pension 382 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 1: plan UH, the Japan gp I F and a really 383 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:04,120 Speaker 1: provocative think are very vocal on how to implement portfolios 384 00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 1: with the climate aspect to it. We've got Michael Lewis speaking. Yeah. Yeah, 385 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 1: so you know he speaks about every few years when 386 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:19,920 Speaker 1: he's got a good provocative book out. He's articulate, he's entertaining, 387 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:23,119 Speaker 1: and he holds no punches at all when he is 388 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 1: speaking to this particular audience because it's investment professionals and 389 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:31,200 Speaker 1: capital allocators. Yeah. Absolutely, And we're starting to see Margaret 390 00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 1: Um issues pop up about compliance, know your customer again 391 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:40,639 Speaker 1: kind of we're starting to see almost great financial crisis 392 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 1: style issues, not that that prevalent, of course, how important 393 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 1: is that in the CFA And are there are there 394 00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,920 Speaker 1: aspects of the tests that you have been emphasizing more 395 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 1: than others as as time goes on. Yeah, So I think, 396 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 1: first of all, let me start by saying everything with 397 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 1: the E with cf A really does center on ethical 398 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:06,160 Speaker 1: and fiduciary orientation. That is, putting your clients interests ahead 399 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 1: of yourself and critically important to build and restore trust 400 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:15,000 Speaker 1: within the system. UM. We do have, obviously, the cf 401 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:18,760 Speaker 1: A Charter program, which is foundational in nature and it 402 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:22,080 Speaker 1: changes with the time, so it's got about this close 403 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:27,200 Speaker 1: to UM of E s G ingrained, integrated throughout the program, 404 00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 1: derivative much more on the private client UM than, for instance, 405 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 1: many of us from years ago would have written. So 406 00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,440 Speaker 1: you know, there's the practical application as well as foundational 407 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 1: UM foundational knowledge, but our professional learning and much of 408 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:47,919 Speaker 1: our research and advocacy is becoming much more responsive to 409 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:55,640 Speaker 1: an accelerated UM changing nature between UM, social media, UH 410 00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:59,080 Speaker 1: news strategies and things are incredibly important for people to 411 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,680 Speaker 1: be thinking about. So it's been vocal on spack Uh products, 412 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:07,320 Speaker 1: and we're actually establishing a working group to provide input, 413 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:11,440 Speaker 1: for for instance, to this SEC who are also looking 414 00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:13,200 Speaker 1: at this. And so those are things that can pop 415 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,440 Speaker 1: up very quickly that are meaningful where we think c 416 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,119 Speaker 1: f A Institute with its convening power and broad constituent 417 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,520 Speaker 1: group can add to that conversation. Margaret, thank you so 418 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,439 Speaker 1: much for joining us. We really appreciate it. Fascinating stuff. 419 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,920 Speaker 1: Margaret Franklin's us the CEO of c f A Institute 420 00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:32,840 Speaker 1: talking about sustainable investing e s G and how the 421 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:36,119 Speaker 1: c FA prepares folks for that. Thanks for listening to 422 00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:39,639 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to 423 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 1: interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 424 00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:48,200 Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three 425 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,440 Speaker 1: on Fall Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before 426 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:54,280 Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg 427 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:54,600 Speaker 1: Radio