1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: What two three breaks down the middle of the fans time. 2 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:10,920 Speaker 2: Hello's chopball. 3 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 1: Down in the one yard line? How about that? 4 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 2: That is the ultimate kah. 5 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 1: Man. We are underway. 6 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 3: Hello everyone, Welcome back to another episode of the Action 7 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 3: Network NFL podcast. Is the Week fourteen Wednesday Show. I'm 8 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:38,519 Speaker 3: Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs. If 9 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 3: you want a recap of what happened in week thirteen 10 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:43,279 Speaker 3: listening to the Monday show with Chris Raybond and Ian Harditz. 11 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:46,640 Speaker 3: With me for this episode are Peter Jennings and Sean Corner. 12 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 3: You can follow them at CSU RAM eighty eight and 13 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 3: the Underscore Odds Maker in the Action Network ap where 14 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 3: you can get real time odds and track your bets. 15 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:57,279 Speaker 3: Peter is a Fantasy Labs co founder and two time 16 00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 3: DFS World Champion, and Shawn is the Action Network director 17 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 3: of Predictive Analytics and the number one end season Fantasy 18 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 3: Pros ranker for each of the past three seasons. And 19 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:09,319 Speaker 3: joining us is Renee Miller, who I believe was actually 20 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 3: one of the first guests on the Fantasy Labs podcast 21 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 3: years ago. Renee is a neuroscientist at the University of 22 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 3: Rochester aka rock City, and she's also an NFL and 23 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 3: NBA analyst at Rotal World and the Athletics. You can 24 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 3: follow her on Twitter at Renee Miller. Oh one, Renee, 25 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 3: how are you doing great? 26 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 4: Happy Week fourteen to you guys. 27 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 2: Yes, it's good to have me on the show. We're 28 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 2: in the home stretch. 29 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 3: It's the holiday season, the season of giving, and with 30 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:39,199 Speaker 3: that in mind, we want to give some free Action 31 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 3: Network subscriptions to listeners. If you want a shot at 32 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 3: a free subscription, it's easy. Just follow these steps. One 33 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 3: cut a hole in a box. I'm joking. Want follow 34 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 3: me Peter, Shawn, Ian Harts and Chris Raybond in the 35 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 3: Action Network app to rate and review the podcast on iTunes. 36 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 3: Three sind a screenshot of the follows and review to 37 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 3: podcasts at actionnetwork dot com. That's plural podcast at actionnetwork 38 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 3: dot com, and then listen to to find out if 39 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:13,640 Speaker 3: you will be the lucky winner of a free Action 40 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 3: Network subscription. But that subscription you get access to all 41 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 3: of our content, including our weekly Fantasy rankings, which you 42 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 3: can find at actionnetwork dot com slash Fantasy. 43 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 2: Okay, let's get into the episode. 44 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 3: We're going to look at the guys who right now 45 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 3: are popping on our pro models. We're going to think 46 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 3: about some players we might want to fade, some games 47 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 3: or teams we might be looking to stack, and then 48 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 3: we're going to make some pseudo bold predictions and picks 49 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:41,079 Speaker 3: and prop bets. A thirteen game mainslate, so lots of 50 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 3: players to choose from. Let's start at the quarterback position, 51 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 3: and Renee, I would like to get your thoughts on 52 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 3: some of these quarterbacks right now. The quarterbacks who are 53 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 3: standing out in our models. There are our number, but 54 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 3: some of the guys who are specifically catching my eye. 55 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 3: Ben Roethlisberger on the road at Oakland. Oakland defense is 56 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 3: just a train Cam Newton. You have Jameis Winston versus 57 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 3: New Orleans and what could be a very high scoring game, 58 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers going against Atlanta. Atlanta's defense has been problematic 59 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:14,360 Speaker 3: all season long, first game without longtime head coach Mike McCarthy. 60 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 3: Do any of those guys catch your eye or is 61 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 3: there anyone else on this slate who kind of stands 62 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 3: out to you? 63 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:19,359 Speaker 4: Yeah? 64 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 5: I think Roethlisberger is pretty obvious. I know that there 65 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 5: are people that still will never play him. On the road, 66 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 5: but I think against Oakland we can make all kinds 67 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 5: of exceptions to that rule. I love Winston, I'm a 68 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 5: big fan of just about everybody in that game. 69 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 4: No arguments with Cam Newton. 70 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 5: It's a little shocking to see Aaron Rodgers at the 71 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 5: price that he's at six K on DraftKings. 72 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 4: He's coming off a stretch of really. 73 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 5: Tough matchups, so I think this could be an interesting 74 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 5: bounce back week for him, and I think his ownership 75 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 5: will probably be pretty close to zero, Yeah, even in 76 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 5: the favorable matchup, just because he's been so bad. How 77 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 5: Mike McCarthy's firing affects him, I'm not really sure they've 78 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 5: been together forever. That is kind of another variable that 79 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 5: might make him a little bit less trustworthy of a play. 80 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 4: But I think he's a nice tournament option. 81 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, and at least Philbin is still there as the 82 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 3: play caller, so there is some offensive continuity. 83 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 4: The play call line has been right. 84 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:25,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, so maybe it's not a good thing that there's 85 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 3: some continuity there, Sean, So we're recording this on Tuesday, 86 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 3: early afternoon Pacific time, still in the morning for you. 87 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 3: The news has broken about James Connor being out. I'm 88 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 3: wondering how that has maybe impacted and obviously we'll talk 89 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:42,840 Speaker 3: about running backs a little bit, but how that has 90 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:47,040 Speaker 3: maybe impacted your projection of Roethlisberger in our models, and 91 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 3: then just that that game in general. 92 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 1: That's good news for a Big Ben. I elevated his 93 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:55,719 Speaker 1: touchdown odds, although we could still see, you know, someone 94 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 1: like Steven Ridley or Jaylen Samuels take some goal line carries. 95 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: But I and it solidifies Big Ben as a multi 96 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 1: touchdown QB this week. But you know, I mentioned last 97 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 1: week that the Raiders have still only allowed one three 98 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 1: hundredard passer earlier. They held Mahomes to two hundred ninety 99 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:14,280 Speaker 1: five yards last week, so I think it does hurt 100 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 1: his ceiling a bit. But you know, he's a lock 101 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:21,160 Speaker 1: for multiple touchdowns right now. I'm targeting Jameis Winston. I 102 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 1: just think he's too cheap. This matchup against the Saints 103 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: is a great spot on both sides, so I'll probably 104 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 1: have a lot of Winston Patrick Mahomes. He's in a 105 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:32,280 Speaker 1: tougher spot this week against the Ravens, but he's matchup proof. 106 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 1: He's at home and he's only seven k I don't 107 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 1: think he's expensive enough to fade by any means, so 108 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:39,600 Speaker 1: I'll probably have a ton of mahomes as well. 109 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 3: You know, one thing, it's interesting. I mean we've talked 110 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 3: about this, you know, repeatedly, but the quarterback position, the 111 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:48,599 Speaker 3: salary range is just like really truncated, Like there's not 112 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 3: much of a difference between the guys salaried at the 113 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 3: top and the guys. 114 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 2: In the middle, even kind of a little bit lower down. 115 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:55,600 Speaker 2: You know. 116 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 3: It means that there can be like a lot of 117 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 3: different opinions on where to go. But Pete, I'm curious 118 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 3: about your thoughts of like how quarterback pricing fits in 119 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:08,359 Speaker 3: with this slate and just kind of where you're looking 120 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:09,480 Speaker 3: at quarterback right now. 121 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 6: Yeah, So on DraftKings, I mean, they've really narrowed the 122 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 6: range of pricing from the quarterback position and you can 123 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 6: find more significant discounts on fan duel, which I think 124 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 6: is actually a more skillful thing, you know, on DraftKings, 125 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 6: I think it's smart. I mean, historically we were able 126 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 6: to pay down at quarterback and yield some profits, but 127 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 6: now with the narrow range of pricing, everyone's pretty you know, 128 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 6: I think in general, they're doing a good job with 129 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:40,040 Speaker 6: matchups and pricing everyone relatively, and because of the efficiency 130 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:42,480 Speaker 6: in the pricing, the narrow range of outcomes and the 131 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 6: narrow range of salaries, it's hard to gain a significant 132 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 6: edge in cash game. So really a lot of it 133 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:51,360 Speaker 6: comes down to ownership for these tournaments, which is where 134 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:54,600 Speaker 6: the majority of action shifting on DraftKings. So you know, 135 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:57,159 Speaker 6: a week by week it's really figuring out the highest 136 00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 6: ceiling plays, the ones that work best in terms of 137 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 6: correlation in the ownership. So this week, I think Mahomes 138 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 6: actually stands out quite a bit. You have to pay 139 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 6: all the way up to him, and he's going against 140 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 6: the best defense in Baltimore, and Baltimore, you know, just 141 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 6: shut down Atlanta in Atlanta, which is very strong. But 142 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 6: I think this Chiefs offense can win against any defense, 143 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 6: and I think Mahomes will come in super low owned. 144 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 1: I think people are going to be attracted. 145 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 6: To Jamis who's currently at the top of my model, 146 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 6: Ben Roethlisberger, who I think is also a great play 147 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 6: you know, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, etc. And I don't 148 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 6: think people will be paying up for Mahomes. But yeah, 149 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 6: in terms of just straight equity, right, now I think 150 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 6: it's jamis for me, but it's certainly close given the pricing. 151 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 3: All right, let's talk a little bit about running back 152 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 3: and last week the story of the slate was clearly 153 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 3: spencer ware as a kind of you know, like must 154 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:52,679 Speaker 3: plug and play in the wake of the Kareem Hunt 155 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 3: suspension and release. I don't think we're going to have 156 00:07:55,880 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 3: exactly the same thing this week with Jalen Samuels or 157 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:03,679 Speaker 3: Stephen Ridley, but there is this dynamic of once again 158 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 3: we have a running back that people really count on 159 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 3: who is no longer on the slate, and there are 160 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 3: questions about how that impacts Renee early in the week. 161 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 3: So obviously there's a lot of news that could still 162 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:20,120 Speaker 3: break on this. But how are you approaching the absence 163 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 3: of James Connor and what that might mean for Jalen 164 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 3: Samuels or Stephen Ridley. 165 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 5: I think some people might actually not buy Samuels this 166 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 5: week the way they bought where last week, because we're 167 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:34,280 Speaker 5: really relative to expectations. 168 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:36,079 Speaker 4: I think was a little bit of a disappointment. 169 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:39,960 Speaker 5: Not terrible for the price, but relative to people thought 170 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 5: you would step right into a thirty fantasy point role 171 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 5: in that matchup and on that offense and didn't, So 172 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 5: there might be a little bit more hesitation with Samuels 173 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:50,319 Speaker 5: this week. 174 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:54,080 Speaker 4: I think he's probably worth the money. I mean the money. 175 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 5: The salary is so low, depending what else you decide 176 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 5: to do. I'm a fan of paying up for Alvin 177 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 5: Kamara this week at running back. So when you're doing 178 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 5: that kind of play, it makes sense to balance it 179 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:10,680 Speaker 5: with a cheaper guy, and I think he's going to 180 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 5: have a decent role. 181 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, so you mentioned Kamar. There definitely someone who's popping 182 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,560 Speaker 3: in our models. A few of the other guys popping, 183 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 3: Philip Lindsay, Kenyan Drake, Jeff Wilson, even those latter three 184 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 3: guys are all on the cheaper side. Philip Lindsay is 185 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 3: someone who has seen his price escalate or elevate over 186 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 3: the last couple of months. Do you have any thoughts 187 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 3: on him. 188 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 4: I think it's deserved. 189 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 5: He's backing it up. His yards per carry is insane. 190 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 5: It doesn't look fluky anymore at this point. He's getting 191 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 5: enough opportunities. He seems fully healthy. It's the offense is 192 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 5: balanced enough. It just seems like the right fit for 193 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 5: him in his skill set, and so I don't see 194 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 5: it really going anywhere. I think he's still a fine 195 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 5: value even as his price rises. In Drake though seven 196 00:09:56,240 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 5: carries last week, the workload is so low p Why 197 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:01,600 Speaker 5: did the models like him so much? 198 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 2: Just price Sean? Why why do models like him? 199 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:09,719 Speaker 1: The game flow? You know they're they're playing the Patriots, 200 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:12,719 Speaker 1: So this matchup sets up better for Drake and come 201 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,480 Speaker 1: back mode. They'll dink and dunk to him, and this 202 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 1: is this is for DK scoring. So with the full 203 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:20,199 Speaker 1: point PPR, Drake gets a little bit of a boost 204 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 1: and he's only forty five hundred. But I'm probably not 205 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 1: gonna be targeting Drake specifically. There's just too much value. 206 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 1: With Samuels we mentioned and Jeff Wilson. I love Jeff 207 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 1: Wilson this week. Matt Britta has already been ruled out, 208 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 1: and with Jeff Wilson we have a little less it's 209 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 1: less of a leap of faith as Jalen Samuels. We 210 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 1: already saw how the forty nine ers intend on using 211 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 1: Wilson with Brita out, and he had eight receptions last week, 212 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 1: so he's gonna be heavily involved in the passing game. 213 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 1: Probably a lock for ten plus carries. So I just 214 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:53,319 Speaker 1: like Jeff Wilson a lot more than Samuels, but I'm 215 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 1: gonna have a ton of exposure to both. I think 216 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 1: you know that they allow you to spend up at 217 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 1: all the other positions, so I think they're they're pretty 218 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 1: much free squares. 219 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:03,440 Speaker 3: This week, can talk a little bit more about the 220 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 3: projection split first between Jeff Samuel and Steven Ridley. 221 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 1: I'm still working on that. Who knows at this point. Yeah, 222 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:14,320 Speaker 1: Samuels is definitely going to be the past catching back, 223 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 1: so we're definitely gonna want him on DK Ridley. He 224 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 1: might get one catch if you're lucky, but with Ridley 225 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 1: you're definitely relying on touchdowns. Samuels probably has a higher 226 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 1: ceiling than Wilson. You know, Samuels is on a better 227 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:32,560 Speaker 1: offense and they're playing the Raiders, so there's gonna be 228 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 1: more touchdown acuity there. I could see really being more 229 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:38,880 Speaker 1: of a leverage play off the Samuels. Like I said earlier, 230 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:42,560 Speaker 1: if he gets a couple of goal line touchdowns, he'll 231 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 1: probably be under owned. I think most people will be 232 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 1: on Samuels, and they're correct in doing that. 233 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:49,280 Speaker 3: Any other thoughts on any of the other backs in 234 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 3: the slate, Guys who stand out to you. Alvin Kamara 235 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:54,200 Speaker 3: obviously someone who's at the top of our models. 236 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:58,559 Speaker 1: That's deservedly so that's a smash spot for Kamara at 237 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,319 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. Price has come down a little bit. He's 238 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:04,200 Speaker 1: struggled the past couplex. I think it's two scoreless games 239 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 1: in a row now, so I think he's gonna bounce 240 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:08,360 Speaker 1: back in a big way. So he's definitely the running 241 00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 1: back I'm targeting on the expensive side. 242 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 6: Yeah, Pete. Any thoughts here, Yeah, a lot of thoughts. 243 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 6: I mean, obviously values just completely changed the slate. You know, 244 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:21,840 Speaker 6: Jalen Samlin's like we just talked about Jeffrey Wilson. I 245 00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:24,920 Speaker 6: think Samuels is clearly the guy. Given his past catching role. 246 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 6: He was a tight end in college. I think he'll 247 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:31,080 Speaker 6: be leveraged more. But do you think Ridley has nice 248 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 6: touchdown upside and shown may good point that he's probably 249 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 6: just a leverage play. Yeah, Kamara, I mean I'm jamming 250 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:40,200 Speaker 6: him in no matter what. Do you think Austin Eckler 251 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:44,319 Speaker 6: is really really nice as well. I'm getting to Philip Lindsay. 252 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 6: I mean, he's right behind safe one Barkley and rushing yards. 253 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 6: I tweeted this out or retweeted something I think is interesting. 254 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 6: I mean, everyone knows that he's been really efficient from 255 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 6: yards per carry standpoint, but his overall rushing yards are 256 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 6: really starting to climb. So he's right behind Sakwe Barkley 257 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 6: and rushing yards on forty one fewer carries. Obviously, sat 258 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:07,559 Speaker 6: Funds had more success in the passing game, and he 259 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 6: is running behind a really bad offensive line. But Lindsay's 260 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 6: for real, and I think he's a nice pivot play. 261 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 2: Again. 262 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:16,679 Speaker 6: The only other running back I think is really interesting 263 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:19,559 Speaker 6: is Aaron Jones. You know a lot of these guys 264 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 6: are at least a couple of who will be under 265 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:23,599 Speaker 6: own given the supreme value we have with Samuels and 266 00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:26,679 Speaker 6: Wilson and Aaron Jones against Atlanta. I mean, that's been 267 00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:29,319 Speaker 6: a huge flowchart guy all year. He got lucky to 268 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 6: score a touchdown last week in a pitiful game, but 269 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:35,120 Speaker 6: running back is absolutely stacked this week. And I think 270 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 6: there's a lot of nice pivots with high equity and 271 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 6: tournaments as well. 272 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, and p to your point, Matt, Philip Lindsay. Next 273 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:45,920 Speaker 3: Gen Stats tracks what they call efficiency but basically a 274 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:49,959 Speaker 3: runners north to south ability and how quickly or how 275 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:53,680 Speaker 3: efficient he is as a north south runner. And no surprise, 276 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:56,599 Speaker 3: Lindsay is number one in the league in that category. 277 00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 3: He just he gets through the line of scrimmage so 278 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 3: quickly and. 279 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 6: Seventeen fury yards and Barkley rushing on fort you I 280 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 6: fuer carries. 281 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Vance Joseph was on the record yesterday 282 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 1: saying they need to get him more carries. So that's always. 283 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:13,840 Speaker 3: Good, Yeah, which is impressive for a guy who is 284 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,320 Speaker 3: his size like it will be exciting to see how 285 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 3: long this goes and if he actually really becomes the 286 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 3: long term lead back there, that would be exciting. 287 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 2: Let's talk about the wide receivers. So if there's this. 288 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 3: Ability at running back to pay down with Jeff Wilson 289 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:32,240 Speaker 3: and Jalen Samuels, then it seems as if there's a 290 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 3: pretty big opportunity to pay up at wide receiver. And 291 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 3: so I'm wondering if that is kind of the construction 292 00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 3: that people are going to go with in what that 293 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:44,840 Speaker 3: might mean for tournaments and how people look to leverage that. 294 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 3: But fornee in our models right now, Michael Thomas, Odell 295 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 3: Beckham and Julio Jones. Those are kind of the expensive 296 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 3: guys who are popping, and then players who are a 297 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 3: little bit cheaper Keenan, Allen Maynolds, Sanders, Curtis Samuel Any 298 00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 3: thoughts on those guys or really any of the other receivers. 299 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 5: On the Yeah, well, obviously, I think Michael Thomas is 300 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 5: as safe as as you'll get a wide receiver this week. 301 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 5: And you're right, the value at running back completely enables that. 302 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 5: It's kind of the it's kind of the opposite of 303 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 5: the way a lot of successful lineup construction has gone 304 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:17,000 Speaker 5: this season where you want to pay up at running 305 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 5: back and. 306 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 4: There's a ton of cheap wide receiver. 307 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 5: Value that really bottomed out last week unless you're on 308 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 5: the bills, of course. But no, I have no problems 309 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 5: with Julio Jones or Odell Beckham. I mean high target volume, 310 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 5: same with DeAndre Hopkins. I think someone that stands out 311 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 5: that your models didn't generate is Amari Cooper. I think 312 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 5: he's in an interesting spot both a really affordable price range, 313 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 5: great matchup, and really seems to be integrated into the 314 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:48,880 Speaker 5: Cowboys offense. 315 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:56,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting about Amori Pete's over there, just silent. 316 00:15:57,560 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 2: Pete. 317 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 3: It looks like you're you're living now in a different 318 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 3: house because you had to move because of Amari losses. Anyway, 319 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 3: Amari Cooper in our models I am curious about. So 320 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 3: we have a decent sample now, I believe of four 321 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 3: games of seeing him in this offense, how projectable do 322 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 3: you think he is moving forward? 323 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:17,520 Speaker 2: And how like? 324 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 3: How how confident do you feel in what we've seen 325 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 3: so far and what that means for his future. 326 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 1: I've always been saying I think I definitely underestimated how 327 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 1: good that trade was for him. They were just so 328 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 1: a thinner receiver that they're they're definitely game playing to 329 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 1: get him the ball. So I do like him. This week, 330 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:35,320 Speaker 1: it's a great matchup against the Eagles, who you know, 331 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 1: have a banged up secondary. He's still he's you know, 332 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 1: a little bit expensive now, so I think that the 333 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 1: price is about right at sixty six hundred. I rather 334 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 1: load up on guys like Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins 335 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 1: this week. Like you mentioned, there's there's so much value 336 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 1: at running back that I'm definitely more able to fit 337 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: in two stud receivers. So Cooper's just kind of lost 338 00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 1: sort of in the middle there. For me, it's still 339 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 1: early in the weeks, so anything can change. But you know, 340 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 1: I love Keenan Allen at home against the Bengals. It's 341 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 1: just a great spot. He's he's pretty cheap and DeAndre Hopkins. 342 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 1: I think this is a smash spot for him. The 343 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: Colts haven't allowed one hundred yard receiver since Week four, 344 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:20,200 Speaker 1: and it was Hopkins himself. He went ten catches for 345 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:22,679 Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty nine yards and a touchdown, So 346 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:25,919 Speaker 1: you know, I could see a huge game from him 347 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 1: this weekend. He's only seventy eight hundred as of right now, 348 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:32,919 Speaker 1: so he'll still be that price comes Sunday, but my 349 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 1: projections for him will probably slowly creep up. 350 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:41,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, Pete, besides the obvious rost ring of Amari, who 351 00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 3: else are you playing it on? 352 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 2: Rostering a wide receiver? 353 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 1: I mean it's not obvious on a Mari. 354 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 6: I mean, yeah, he's just been self frustrating, But yeah, 355 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:53,719 Speaker 6: I agree with her name. 356 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 1: I mean, this is a great spot. 357 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 6: When I was building some teams, he really stood out 358 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 6: and I'd grown thinking about all the my I'm gonna 359 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 6: lose this week either way if I don't play him enough. 360 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 6: He'll go off and I do play him too much, 361 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 6: He'll he'll be terrible. 362 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,040 Speaker 1: I love Keenan Allen. I've been rostering him all year. 363 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 6: That really paid dividends last week, and all the slate too, 364 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 6: is included. She's just been getting a ton of volume 365 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:19,640 Speaker 6: ever since he can played. After that London game, They've 366 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,359 Speaker 6: been feeding him and you just watch the tape. I mean, 367 00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:25,240 Speaker 6: obviously the Steelers made mistakes having linebackers on him a lot, 368 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:29,399 Speaker 6: but his elusiveness and quickness to just get open, either 369 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 6: you know, short down the field or you know, on 370 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,679 Speaker 6: longer routes is incredible. So I'm gonna have a lot 371 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:38,280 Speaker 6: of Keenan Allen, love Hopkins, love Emmanuel Sanders, Michael Thomas, 372 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:40,399 Speaker 6: and you can fit a lot of these guys. So 373 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:42,919 Speaker 6: it's a week where I'm definitely spending up at receiver, 374 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,359 Speaker 6: giving the running back value. And yeah, I think Michael 375 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:48,880 Speaker 6: Thomas is gonna be my number one for Sherlock given 376 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 6: the safety. Keenan Allen's probably two, and then the DeAndre Hopkins, 377 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:55,120 Speaker 6: and there's lineups where you can fit all three. 378 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 1: I do love a Mari. 379 00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 6: I do love Emmanuel Sanders as kind of the mid 380 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,439 Speaker 6: tier place, But yeah, it's a stacked week and the 381 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:03,879 Speaker 6: other one I should mention, especially if we get the 382 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:06,640 Speaker 6: news on the Sean Jackson if he's out again. Godwin 383 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 6: to me is another elite play. Secondary receivers have just 384 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:13,440 Speaker 6: crushed the Saints Humphreys obviously is a nice play as well. 385 00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, I really like that and that is definitely something 386 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 3: to to keep an eye on. 387 00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 2: Tight end. 388 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 3: In our models, we have the you know, the big three, 389 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,960 Speaker 3: Travis Kelcey, zach Or, it's Robert Ronkowski. Uh and then 390 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:31,360 Speaker 3: on the cheap side, Christopher Herndon, who's been a pleasant 391 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 3: surprise uh this year as someone who you know went 392 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 3: underdrafted as a a fifth round rookie, but has you know, 393 00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 3: consistently gotten target volume there even if he hasn't done 394 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 3: a lot with it in the Jets offense, he's you 395 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 3: know done I think what any reasonable person would expect 396 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:51,560 Speaker 3: someone to be able to do within that offense. 397 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:52,400 Speaker 2: Uh. 398 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 3: So I'm curious, for nay, is this a week given 399 00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:57,919 Speaker 3: the value we have a running back? Is this a 400 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,400 Speaker 3: week where we are looking to pay up at time end? 401 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 3: Or are you thinking you might go cheaper? 402 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 5: This is a year that I wish we didn't have 403 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:10,439 Speaker 5: to play a tight end most weeks, so tight end 404 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 5: is not my favorite position to think about. I don't 405 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 5: know that you have to go as cheap as as Herndon. 406 00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 5: You know, when you see Jets Bills, that's going to 407 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 5: be a low scoring game. No one would be shocked 408 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 5: by a ten six or worst score at the end 409 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 5: of four quarters. 410 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 4: So I don't know. 411 00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 5: There might be some target values, some reception value with Herndon, 412 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 5: but I don't think there's a lot of touchdown upside there. 413 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:44,160 Speaker 5: Going back to you know, when we were talking about 414 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 5: Aaron Rodgers and this being of bounced back spot for him. 415 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:49,399 Speaker 5: Jimmy Graham is still seeing a ton of targets and 416 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 5: he had eleven last week. It didn't really pan out 417 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 5: well in the in the final stat line, but I 418 00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:58,879 Speaker 5: think he's a nice kind of mid range tight end. 419 00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 5: I'll probably end up somewhere around there, maybe Hooper, maybe 420 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 5: Vance McDonald. With the expensive guys, I mean, they're they're 421 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:07,360 Speaker 5: just like, if you have the money. 422 00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 3: Sure Sean out of those expensive guys, how are you 423 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:11,680 Speaker 3: prioritizing them? 424 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, So you know, if you want to take Herndon 425 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 1: and enjoy your three catches for forty yards and zero touchdowns. 426 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:22,399 Speaker 1: I'm gonna have Travis Kelcey. I love Kelsey this week. 427 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,000 Speaker 1: I'm not scared of the Ravens matchup that they're pretty 428 00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:28,720 Speaker 1: vulnerable to tight ends and Kelsey's matchup proof anyway, so 429 00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 1: it doesn't even matter. But you know, I forgot to 430 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,399 Speaker 1: mention that wide receiver Curtis Samuel at four K as well, 431 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:38,360 Speaker 1: all this value at running back and you know receiver, 432 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:40,440 Speaker 1: I think it's a no brainer spend up on tight 433 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:43,120 Speaker 1: end this week. I'm not gonna mess with the lower 434 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:45,560 Speaker 1: price guys like I usually do. And then the other 435 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,640 Speaker 1: guy that's, you know, a little too cheap is Gronkowski 436 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 1: at forty eight hundred. Getting Gronk at that price is 437 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 1: pretty tempting. So for me, it'll be a ton of 438 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,440 Speaker 1: Kelsey with some Gronk sprinkled. 439 00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:00,800 Speaker 6: In with John Completely. I think that this is a 440 00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,720 Speaker 6: week where I probably want to spend up. Herndon is 441 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 6: ranking high in the model. I'm not going to play 442 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:07,120 Speaker 6: too much of him. It's going to be a mix 443 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:11,360 Speaker 6: of Kelsey, Gronk, Inerts, maybe some Cameron braid On, some 444 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 6: Jamis Stacks, But those three guys, I think you want 445 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:18,199 Speaker 6: to prioritize in a big way. Dallas does have fast linebackers, 446 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 6: and he's been doing a good job against tight ends. 447 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 6: But Ertz is I think somewhat matchup proof. And I 448 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,560 Speaker 6: agree on the price on Gronkowski although he doesn't look right. 449 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,440 Speaker 6: I mean he was hobbling around last week. He's got 450 00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 6: just all sorts of entries across the board, so that's 451 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 6: the concern. But I'll take the price savings and hope 452 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,480 Speaker 6: he pops into the end zone. Safest play for sure. 453 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:44,440 Speaker 6: As Kelsey sean random question shooting from the hip set 454 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:53,119 Speaker 6: odds on whether this is Gronkowski's last year Yes, plus 455 00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 6: two hundred, no, minus three hundred, pete, how would you 456 00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:57,439 Speaker 6: bet that? 457 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:06,280 Speaker 1: Uh? We have to think about So those are good odds. 458 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:07,720 Speaker 1: I guess yeah. 459 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:12,359 Speaker 6: I mean, man renee, he's got to start really revaluing 460 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 6: his body, and I think it depends like if the 461 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:15,199 Speaker 6: Patriots in the super Bowl, that. 462 00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:18,400 Speaker 1: Probably makes it more likely to retire. Yeah, I would take. 463 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,359 Speaker 6: You think that he plays another year, you get you 464 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:23,920 Speaker 6: have to lay minus three hundred. That's why I'm thinking 465 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 6: about it exactly exactly. Yeah, Yeah, I'll take I'll take that. Uh, 466 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:30,920 Speaker 6: he he doesn't retire still, but that's a good line. 467 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, Renee, I'll take that he retires because I think 468 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 5: he should. 469 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 3: Yes, and people always do what they should. Yeah, Okay, 470 00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:46,440 Speaker 3: let's talk about either expensive players or players you think 471 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 3: might be popular that you would be comfortable fading. Obviously, 472 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:52,280 Speaker 3: it's early in the week, so this is kind of 473 00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:55,919 Speaker 3: a tougher question. But Renee, anyone on the kind of 474 00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,560 Speaker 3: expensive end who catches your eye, someone you think like, 475 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:00,520 Speaker 3: you know what, I would be like, totally fine just 476 00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:02,280 Speaker 3: staying away from that person this week. 477 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,199 Speaker 5: I think Tyreek Hill kind of fits that bill. I 478 00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,639 Speaker 5: think he can disappear at times and this isn't a 479 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:12,399 Speaker 5: good matchup. He's one I probably will have I don't know, 480 00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,320 Speaker 5: maybe not no exposure too, but one that i'd be 481 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 5: okay fading. 482 00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,120 Speaker 4: I guess maybe i'd even put Julio Jones in that category. 483 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:20,639 Speaker 5: I know earlier I said I don't really have a 484 00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,359 Speaker 5: problem with him, but the way that Atlanta's offense has. 485 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 4: Looked the past few weeks, it's a little skimpy. 486 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 5: So yeah, Julio is probably another one that I would 487 00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:35,280 Speaker 5: be okay with not having any exposure to. I'm close 488 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,880 Speaker 5: on saying that about Mike Evans, but I think it's 489 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 5: got to get better at. 490 00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:43,120 Speaker 3: Some point, Sean, what about you? Anyone catch your eyes 491 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:44,040 Speaker 3: someone you want to avoid? 492 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 1: So I don't want to avoid him. I'm not comfortable 493 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,680 Speaker 1: fading him. I don't have one bad thing to say 494 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:54,160 Speaker 1: about him. But Philip Lindsay just to pivot to Austin Eckler, 495 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:59,200 Speaker 1: who I think people might avoid too much this week. 496 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 1: This this is the second game where he's disappointed when 497 00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,879 Speaker 1: Melvin Gordon's out. Justin Jackson looked really good. So I 498 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:08,560 Speaker 1: think people are gonna avoid Eckler. I mean he's the 499 00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:10,880 Speaker 1: same price as Lindsay, so I think Lindsay's gonna eat 500 00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,920 Speaker 1: up most of the ownership at the sixty three hundred range. 501 00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:16,320 Speaker 1: You know, Eckler is the kind of guy. He's at 502 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:19,119 Speaker 1: home against the Bengals. He doesn't need that many touches 503 00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 1: to go off, and he seems like a lock for 504 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,159 Speaker 1: fifteen to twenty if Melvin Gordon misses again. So he 505 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 1: has massive upset that price. You know, it's more of 506 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,760 Speaker 1: a pivot play than you know, me thinking that Lindsay 507 00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,800 Speaker 1: has any you know, negative thing I can pick on. 508 00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:34,400 Speaker 1: This is more of just a leverage play. 509 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm gonna play Michael Thomas in cash every single 510 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 6: place I can, but there's definitely scenarios where the running 511 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:43,879 Speaker 6: backs just go Ham Kamara and Ingram and the same thing. 512 00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:46,040 Speaker 6: I mean, he's literally the top guy I'm going jam 513 00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,880 Speaker 6: into cash games. But as a leverage play, I don't 514 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,160 Speaker 6: mind fading him and going to any of these top 515 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,679 Speaker 6: end guys. You already talked about Hopkins and Allen. Probably 516 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 6: get a little more leverage on someone like de Monte Adams, 517 00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:59,200 Speaker 6: who after the coach firing I think could be really nice. 518 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,440 Speaker 6: You can make a case for Julio in that same game, 519 00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 6: who just played a terrible games, the worst game of 520 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:06,920 Speaker 6: the season for Baltimore. I do think you can get 521 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:11,000 Speaker 6: some nice leverage there. I'm done, guys. I want to 522 00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 6: fade for sure, just given how bad I've been a doing. 523 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:14,480 Speaker 1: That all season. 524 00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:17,399 Speaker 6: Christ McCaffer two weeks ago in particular, who ended up 525 00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:20,800 Speaker 6: playing a lot of But yeah, there's some good leverage 526 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 6: this week for sure. 527 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,159 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, you're you're not the guy who wrote an 528 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,440 Speaker 3: article talk about how Antonio Brown is falling off a 529 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:27,959 Speaker 3: cliff and then had him go off for like the 530 00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:29,399 Speaker 3: best game of his season. 531 00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:31,320 Speaker 2: So at least you're not that guy good. 532 00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:36,240 Speaker 6: Buddy Borders Road Wilson one has ever, Yeah, he's really 533 00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,639 Speaker 6: started coming after us in the Action Network and that 534 00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 6: you were at the next Victium in line after the 535 00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 6: Antonio Brown It's fine. 536 00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:45,399 Speaker 3: I still feel I'm on the right side of it 537 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 3: even after that game. Let's talk about some of these 538 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:50,560 Speaker 3: teams or some of the games we might be looking 539 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,919 Speaker 3: to stack. So the games that are standing out in 540 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 3: our live odds page at the Action Network, Saint Hip 541 00:26:56,359 --> 00:27:00,320 Speaker 3: Box obviously highest total game on the late fifty six points, 542 00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:03,639 Speaker 3: Ravens at Chiefs fifty three points, Steelers or Raiders fifty 543 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:05,639 Speaker 3: one and a half points. All of those are games 544 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:09,119 Speaker 3: that we've touched on in some capacity. Are there any 545 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,920 Speaker 3: games other than those, any kind of non obvious games 546 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,240 Speaker 3: that stand out? Is once that you think have a 547 00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:18,320 Speaker 3: potential to shoot out? Maybe has a team that you 548 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:20,240 Speaker 3: would be looking to stack Renee. 549 00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:22,960 Speaker 6: I think I. 550 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,560 Speaker 4: Think one that's pretty interesting is Caroline Cleveland. 551 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 5: We haven't talked about the Browns at all, but I 552 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:32,080 Speaker 5: think they're kind of a sneaky, a sneaky stack. 553 00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 4: Caroline has been a team that you can throw on. 554 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 5: We saw Landry finally kind of get back on track 555 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:39,440 Speaker 5: last week. 556 00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,040 Speaker 4: Higg Inside a decent game, so I think that. 557 00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:46,440 Speaker 5: The Browns could be a somewhat of a sneaky team 558 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,239 Speaker 5: to stack, but overall, I think that game is going 559 00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:49,440 Speaker 5: to be productive for fantasy. 560 00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,800 Speaker 4: It's relatively high scoring. I think forty seven is the 561 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:53,879 Speaker 4: line and really narrow spread. 562 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,960 Speaker 2: Sean, what do you think? Yeah? 563 00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,120 Speaker 1: I love that call. That a game I was targeting 564 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 1: as a sneaky stack stackable game as well. I think 565 00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:08,040 Speaker 1: you know, the Saints Buccaneers game is the most obvious 566 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,639 Speaker 1: game stack there is, so don't need to go in 567 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,560 Speaker 1: depth on that one, but I think you know the 568 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,200 Speaker 1: the underlying game that I think could have the most 569 00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:20,160 Speaker 1: shootout potential as the Falcons Packers. I actually have the 570 00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:22,720 Speaker 1: line for this game, the total being closer to fifty two, 571 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,040 Speaker 1: so I'm not sure why it's at forty in right now, 572 00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:29,680 Speaker 1: but I think it's gonna it's gonna sneak up by Sunday. 573 00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:34,680 Speaker 1: Both teams basically have nothing to play for very disappointing seasons, 574 00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:37,399 Speaker 1: so I don't see why they just don't air it 575 00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:40,840 Speaker 1: out and you know, sort of vent their frustration by 576 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:42,920 Speaker 1: just going Ham and airing it out there. There's really 577 00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,080 Speaker 1: no reason for either team to hold back here. So 578 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 1: I love this game as a sneaky potential shootout. And 579 00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 1: you know there's plenty of stacking options on both sides here. 580 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:52,960 Speaker 2: Pete, what do you think? 581 00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. 582 00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:58,040 Speaker 6: I think both those games are are really enticing in general. 583 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:02,040 Speaker 6: This week could be really good game stack week. The 584 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 6: Kansas City Ravens game also has a high total, mostly 585 00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,840 Speaker 6: because of the Chiefs. We'll see what happens with the Ravens, 586 00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 6: but I could see Lamar Jackson then a lot of 587 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 6: these Chiefs being a pretty nice play. The game that 588 00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,479 Speaker 6: I think is sneaky, that I think has more upside 589 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:18,520 Speaker 6: than people realizing the totals already starting to come up 590 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:22,400 Speaker 6: is the Broncos at forty nine Ers game. The Broncos 591 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,200 Speaker 6: just lost their second best defender or maybe arguably their 592 00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:28,360 Speaker 6: best defender and Chris Harris to a broken leg, which 593 00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,240 Speaker 6: is just brutal given how well they're playing now. And 594 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,080 Speaker 6: San Francisco has been all right. I mean, Mullins is 595 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,960 Speaker 6: definitely not a great quarterback, but at home beginning, Marquis 596 00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,160 Speaker 6: Goodwin back from the personal reason issue that he was having, 597 00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 6: and the Broncos offense. We already talked about Philip Lindsay, 598 00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,239 Speaker 6: Courtland Sutton finally had his big game that I've been 599 00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:50,080 Speaker 6: waiting for all year. Manuel Sanders is in a good place, 600 00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:53,840 Speaker 6: so I could see this game being a sneaky shootout 601 00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:57,080 Speaker 6: that is gonna be really low owned outside of Wilson 602 00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,720 Speaker 6: and Lindsay. So if you attack the passing game here, 603 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,080 Speaker 6: I think you had some pretty nice ownership. 604 00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,800 Speaker 3: Interesting, let's get to the sort of pseudo bold call 605 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,000 Speaker 3: your non obvious pick. I need to come up with 606 00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:10,760 Speaker 3: the actual title of what we're doing with this section. 607 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:14,400 Speaker 3: But one pick one situation you like, uh for a game, 608 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,800 Speaker 3: and then one for fantasy and Renee, let's start with you. 609 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,840 Speaker 4: I'll revisit Amari Cooper. I don't know how. 610 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,800 Speaker 3: That's bold. 611 00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:32,840 Speaker 5: I'll take gallup because I think he's he's just trending upwards. Also, 612 00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,800 Speaker 5: so Dallas pass catcher, how about that vagueeness. 613 00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:36,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's good. 614 00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:40,000 Speaker 4: That's good one game situation. 615 00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:44,000 Speaker 5: There's a few things, a few lines that surprised me 616 00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 5: a little bit this week. I'll take stick with Dallas 617 00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:51,320 Speaker 5: and I'll take Philly and Dallas over. 618 00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:53,120 Speaker 4: But I think the Eagles win. 619 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:53,480 Speaker 6: On the road. 620 00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,760 Speaker 2: Uh huh, Sean, what do you think what you got. 621 00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,520 Speaker 1: For real life? I already touched on it. But this 622 00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:03,080 Speaker 1: Hackers Falcons game will go over sixty points. I would 623 00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:05,560 Speaker 1: definitely take the forty nine while you still can. I 624 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 1: know it's getting pounded, but I just don't see how 625 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:12,200 Speaker 1: the osmakers don't push this over fifty again. With teams 626 00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:16,240 Speaker 1: with nothing to play for, usually that favors the offense 627 00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:18,800 Speaker 1: as the defense can let up a little bit. And 628 00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:20,880 Speaker 1: I already looked at the weather report. It should be 629 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:24,520 Speaker 1: freezing ass cold, but no snow showers or anything in 630 00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:26,360 Speaker 1: the forecast, so I think it should be a pretty 631 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:30,959 Speaker 1: clean weather game at Lambeau And for DFS, Austin Eckler 632 00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:32,920 Speaker 1: will be a top five running back on the main 633 00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,520 Speaker 1: slate and I'm not even gonna throw on the caveat 634 00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:38,960 Speaker 1: that Melvin Gordon has to sit because with Eckler it 635 00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:42,240 Speaker 1: just doesn't really matter. He tends to have his biggest 636 00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,440 Speaker 1: games when Gordon's in. So but you know, I love 637 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:48,960 Speaker 1: it again Earlier I mentioned I love Echo this week. 638 00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,920 Speaker 1: If Melvin Gordon's out, he has a ton of upside. 639 00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:55,840 Speaker 1: And at sixty two hundred, you know, decent price this week. 640 00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:00,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, and Sean, I'm looking at a right now and 641 00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,480 Speaker 3: to the line his move to forty eight and a half, 642 00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,800 Speaker 3: so all the more Incidsei to jump on it. 643 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:10,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, so it's going down. Yeah, it's weird that's hovering there. 644 00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,840 Speaker 1: I think it'll it'll end up breaking fifty come Sunday. 645 00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, Pete, what do you got? 646 00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:18,719 Speaker 1: I'll stick with everything. 647 00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 6: I mean, I already called I think this game has 648 00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:23,480 Speaker 6: sneaky shootout potential. It's my Broncos. I'll say the Broncos 649 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:27,040 Speaker 6: win by two touchdowns. Portland Sutton catches two touchdowns and 650 00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,360 Speaker 6: the total goes over fifty five points. So all the 651 00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:34,320 Speaker 6: bias all my guys, and I hope Marky's goodwin also 652 00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:35,120 Speaker 6: has a really big game. 653 00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:39,600 Speaker 3: Nice Okay for the game, the Chiefs opened his nine 654 00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:42,040 Speaker 3: point favorites. This spread his drop to six and a half, 655 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:44,360 Speaker 3: even though they've gotten sixty five percent of the tickets 656 00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,760 Speaker 3: and sixty two percent of the money. So there's some 657 00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,720 Speaker 3: pretty significant reverse line movement through the key number seven 658 00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:51,280 Speaker 3: in favor of the Ravens. 659 00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,720 Speaker 2: And I mean, I don't know, I don't know. 660 00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 3: If this actually happens, but I'll be bold and say 661 00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:57,520 Speaker 3: like they get the outright win. Like I think the 662 00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,920 Speaker 3: Chiefs are vulnerable enough on defense, especially on the ground, 663 00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:03,520 Speaker 3: and I think the Ravens will just like run run 664 00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:07,880 Speaker 3: run with Lamar Jackson and his cadre of backs, look 665 00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:10,040 Speaker 3: to control the clock. And then on defense, you know, 666 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:13,320 Speaker 3: I think they're strong enough in DVOA and maybe they 667 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,360 Speaker 3: get some you know, lucky turnovers, but they're you know, 668 00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:18,360 Speaker 3: they're pretty strong against the run and the pass. And 669 00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:20,240 Speaker 3: then the Chiefs have a big game in week fifteen 670 00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:23,360 Speaker 3: on Thursday nine Football against the Chargers, so this could 671 00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:26,720 Speaker 3: be a look ahead spot against a non divisional opponent 672 00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:30,520 Speaker 3: that they kind of underestimate. And then for fantasy, I'm 673 00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:34,040 Speaker 3: going with Jalen Samuels. Like him a lot versus tyle 674 00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:37,480 Speaker 3: skill set used all over the formation in North Carolina State, 675 00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:41,440 Speaker 3: half back, full back, in line, tight end, slot receiver. 676 00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,240 Speaker 3: You know, he has lead back size, underrated athleticism for 677 00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:48,480 Speaker 3: his size. I think he's the most talented player in 678 00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:52,040 Speaker 3: the backfield with Connor out, and maybe even with Connor in. 679 00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,120 Speaker 3: I don't want to really say that, but anyway, so 680 00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:56,240 Speaker 3: I like his matchup. I think he gets into the 681 00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,160 Speaker 3: end zone twice, so that will be my prediction. I 682 00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:01,200 Speaker 3: might say away from his yardage props, but I like 683 00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:04,520 Speaker 3: his touchdown chances, which brings us to the prop betting 684 00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:06,720 Speaker 3: segment of the show, in which the odds maker sets 685 00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:10,800 Speaker 3: lines for us. Reminder, Shawn's projections powered the Fantasy Labs 686 00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:13,520 Speaker 3: models as well as our prop stool, which aggregates the 687 00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:17,160 Speaker 3: player props from online sportsbooks, compares them to Shawn's projections, 688 00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:20,120 Speaker 3: and shows you which bets provide the most value. This season, 689 00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,200 Speaker 3: the props with the back quality of ten have gone 690 00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:24,960 Speaker 3: two oh seven, ninety two and eleven, good for a 691 00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:27,319 Speaker 3: hit rate of sixty seven percent. Be sure to check 692 00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:30,520 Speaker 3: out the props tool at Fantasy Labs for subscribers only. 693 00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:33,480 Speaker 2: Sean, what props do you have for us? 694 00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:37,040 Speaker 1: All right, so we're starting it off with Drew Brees 695 00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:40,760 Speaker 1: versus Jameis Winston who will score more DK points this week? 696 00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:42,560 Speaker 2: Breeze Winston? 697 00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,719 Speaker 4: Do we get to know this time how you guys 698 00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:47,239 Speaker 4: are all doing with the prop bets? 699 00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:52,720 Speaker 3: So that is a good question. Scott, the intern turned 700 00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:56,759 Speaker 3: producer has just recently had a baby, or rather I 701 00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,040 Speaker 3: should say his wife just recently had a baby, so 702 00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:01,719 Speaker 3: he normally keeps track of all of this but he 703 00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:04,480 Speaker 3: hasn't been able to, uh to send us our updated 704 00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:07,920 Speaker 3: state needs. Although I imagine that, uh, you know, Sean, 705 00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:11,960 Speaker 3: being mister organization over there, probably has all this information 706 00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:13,920 Speaker 3: on his own, but maybe he doesn't. 707 00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:17,080 Speaker 2: I know, Sean, do you have No, I didn't. 708 00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:18,799 Speaker 1: Put him the time to get the exact total, but 709 00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:20,600 Speaker 1: I think I crushed last week. 710 00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think you've been doing well lately. 711 00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:28,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, Sean's trending, yes, exactly. Year to hang on to 712 00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:30,400 Speaker 1: an elite start. 713 00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:35,239 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's all. It's all going downhill for me, is 714 00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:35,680 Speaker 2: this season? 715 00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:41,920 Speaker 1: So because I'm learning how to shave numbers off you guys. 716 00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:46,839 Speaker 1: So Aaron Rodgers total passing yards this week at home 717 00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:51,879 Speaker 1: against Falcon's hosts, the Mike McCarthy era over under two 718 00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,640 Speaker 1: hundred and seventy five and a half yards. 719 00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:56,680 Speaker 2: Over over, y'all go over. 720 00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:01,279 Speaker 1: And then I had an audible this one after last night. 721 00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:05,880 Speaker 1: But Mark Sanchez passing yards at home against the Giants 722 00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:11,120 Speaker 1: over under to eighteen and a half under over Chris 723 00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:11,919 Speaker 1: Thompson's back. 724 00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,279 Speaker 3: Yeah, I will say under, but I don't feel I 725 00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:17,719 Speaker 3: don't have a strong conviction on it. 726 00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:21,399 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean he's four K. I'm not saying play him, 727 00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:23,759 Speaker 1: but you know, he is pretty cheap this week, so 728 00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:26,360 Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if he's on some like GPP 729 00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:29,439 Speaker 1: winning team somehow. I have a bonus prop this week. 730 00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:34,360 Speaker 1: Will there be any non QB passing touchdown in Week fourteen? 731 00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:38,840 Speaker 2: That's a good one. Say here, here's a question. 732 00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:42,520 Speaker 3: What if it's a quarterback on a special team's play, 733 00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:46,680 Speaker 3: Like a quarterback doesn't count? 734 00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:52,360 Speaker 1: Like count Yeah, he counts as a quarterback. And you 735 00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:54,880 Speaker 1: like if a guy, if a backup QB is the 736 00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:56,839 Speaker 1: holder and they do a fake field going he throws 737 00:36:56,880 --> 00:37:03,440 Speaker 1: over touchdown, that's still no. So any non QB Okay, 738 00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:06,279 Speaker 1: I say no. I say no, but I want to 739 00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:06,880 Speaker 1: say yes. 740 00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:11,600 Speaker 3: Have you done research that shows that later in the season, 741 00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:16,240 Speaker 3: teams are likelier to do kind of crazy trick plays 742 00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:18,839 Speaker 3: for my special teams formations or things like that. 743 00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:21,520 Speaker 1: I did not put that much research into this, but 744 00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:25,120 Speaker 1: I did see that half the weeks there has been 745 00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:29,799 Speaker 1: a non QB passing touchdown. It's pretty close to fifty 746 00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:32,600 Speaker 1: to fifty. And then you know there's no teams on buys, 747 00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:35,840 Speaker 1: so I think it's probably a little bit more likely. 748 00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:38,799 Speaker 1: So I'll gladly take all no action I can on 749 00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:43,440 Speaker 1: this so moving the running back, I seem to not 750 00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:45,640 Speaker 1: be able to set the line high enough on this guy. 751 00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:49,600 Speaker 1: But Philip Lindsay rushing yards at San Francisco this week 752 00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:58,080 Speaker 1: over under eighty five and a half over over Austin Eckler. 753 00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:02,320 Speaker 1: This is with if Melvin Gordon's ruled out over under 754 00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:06,160 Speaker 1: eighty three and a half, total rushing and receiving yards 755 00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:12,360 Speaker 1: under okay, over all right, and Jalen Samuel's total rushing 756 00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:16,120 Speaker 1: and receiving yards over under fifty two and a half. 757 00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:19,200 Speaker 3: I have a question, how much did you inflate that 758 00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:22,120 Speaker 3: line from when you really had it in your head 759 00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:23,120 Speaker 3: when the show started. 760 00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:25,000 Speaker 2: Four yards okay, yeah. 761 00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:27,240 Speaker 1: But that is gonna be a very volatile projection. 762 00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:31,640 Speaker 3: Yeah help yeah, I'll take the over Pete. You said 763 00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:34,640 Speaker 3: over right? Oh yeah, yeah, you went over. 764 00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:37,080 Speaker 1: I think receiving is where he has a lot of equity. 765 00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:42,520 Speaker 1: All right, Moving to receiver. Freedman's boy, Antonio Brown, total 766 00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:46,799 Speaker 1: receiving yards at the Raiders over under eighty seven and a. 767 00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:50,480 Speaker 2: Half over just over. 768 00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:52,560 Speaker 7: How are you You said you just still felt good 769 00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:54,719 Speaker 7: about it. How can you say also so good about volume? 770 00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:57,600 Speaker 7: He's getting he's getting volume. I still think he's training downhill, 771 00:38:57,600 --> 00:38:59,960 Speaker 7: but he's such a volume beast right now that it's 772 00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:02,320 Speaker 7: it's impossible to overlook that I'm. 773 00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:06,799 Speaker 6: Taking over over. Last week was a perfect recipe though, 774 00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:10,160 Speaker 6: like big Ben and Big Ben and Antonio Brown if 775 00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:12,080 Speaker 6: you can buy like I need to look it up. 776 00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:14,840 Speaker 2: But like home favorite time it was. 777 00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:17,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, it was those two things, like all that together. 778 00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:23,040 Speaker 1: Just they have to have ridiculous numbers over the last years. Yeah, 779 00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:28,880 Speaker 1: Curtis Samuel total rushing and receiving yards at Cleveland I 780 00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:31,040 Speaker 1: mentioned earlier. I'm pretty high him this week, and he's 781 00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:33,600 Speaker 1: super cheap. So I need you guys either talking off 782 00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:36,640 Speaker 1: ledge with him or make me feel good about this projection. 783 00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:41,279 Speaker 1: But over under fifty five and a half, I'll go under. Yeah, 784 00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,200 Speaker 1: I'll go under too mean median situation. 785 00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:45,600 Speaker 6: I think that's maybe a little low for his mean 786 00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:48,759 Speaker 6: but median wise, I'll take the under. 787 00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:51,160 Speaker 5: I love him a lot when I look at him 788 00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:55,560 Speaker 5: compared to DJ Moore in terms of DFS play, but 789 00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:57,959 Speaker 5: I'll go with those guys and go under. 790 00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:00,759 Speaker 3: The big thing is I don't believe that he's going 791 00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:03,440 Speaker 3: to be getting eleven targets again. You know, like I 792 00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:06,160 Speaker 3: think he's going to be closer to like the six 793 00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:09,120 Speaker 3: to eight range, and like maybe even closer to like five. 794 00:40:09,560 --> 00:40:11,279 Speaker 6: I love to look at like how many big He's 795 00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:14,000 Speaker 6: had a lot of big plays obviously remember the reverse specifically, 796 00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:15,800 Speaker 6: but he's a big play specialist. 797 00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:16,920 Speaker 1: I know last week was a little. 798 00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:18,920 Speaker 6: Bit of anomaly with all the volume, but when I 799 00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,120 Speaker 6: think about him, I think about when his big games 800 00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:24,200 Speaker 6: are very correlated with like one specific big play. 801 00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:27,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, and like last week I had him really suppressed 802 00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:31,840 Speaker 1: because everybody was healthy, but now that Olsen's out, I 803 00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:35,120 Speaker 1: think it could open up some you know, underneath routs 804 00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:37,160 Speaker 1: or something. So I definitely like him this week. And 805 00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:40,160 Speaker 1: he's super cheap, So even with my pretty modest projection, 806 00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:41,280 Speaker 1: he's popping in my model. 807 00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:44,239 Speaker 3: So yeah, And one thing is it's good to see 808 00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,759 Speaker 3: that even with the return of Devin Functions last week, 809 00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:49,880 Speaker 3: that really didn't cap the potential for DJ Moore and 810 00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:52,360 Speaker 3: Curtis Samuel, Like both of those guys were still getting 811 00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:54,480 Speaker 3: their snaps and running routes and getting targets. 812 00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:59,040 Speaker 1: Ye last but at least Larry Fitzgerald Christian Kirk was 813 00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:03,000 Speaker 1: placed in ir SO the wide receiver def chart behind 814 00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:06,440 Speaker 1: fits is pretty bare, so I think he's a pretty 815 00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:10,239 Speaker 1: high four play this week. But right now I have 816 00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:13,400 Speaker 1: his receiving yards at fifty two and a half. 817 00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:16,480 Speaker 4: It's so gross. 818 00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:19,800 Speaker 1: I hate taking these old guys at the end of 819 00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:20,160 Speaker 1: the year. 820 00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:23,759 Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, this is there, Fitzgerald. I guarantee you as 821 00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,240 Speaker 6: a recording. This is at Whisper Rock right now. Just chicken, 822 00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:32,560 Speaker 6: I'm gonna take the under. Yeah, Darius Slay will be 823 00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:34,640 Speaker 6: on in probably a good bit. I'll take the under, 824 00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:36,480 Speaker 6: all right. 825 00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:41,800 Speaker 1: Moving on to tight end Travis Kelcey. Travis Kelcey versus 826 00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:44,920 Speaker 1: the top tight end score on the main slate Travis 827 00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:48,840 Speaker 1: Kelcey plus four and a half, and the top score 828 00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:50,520 Speaker 1: on the main slate is minus four and a half. 829 00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:53,279 Speaker 1: So you get every other tight end, every other tight end, 830 00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:56,319 Speaker 1: and this this is like the first week we have 831 00:41:56,560 --> 00:42:00,000 Speaker 1: Ertz Tittle and on it. I'll take every other time. 832 00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:04,640 Speaker 3: Same, Yeah, I will too. Actually, here's here's a question, 833 00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:06,239 Speaker 3: not that I think this is going to factor in, 834 00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:11,680 Speaker 3: but are we giving Jalen Samuel's tight end eligibility? 835 00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:15,359 Speaker 1: No, that that's that's only for like season long. Yeah, 836 00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:18,000 Speaker 1: like Yahoo, I think is the only set that has 837 00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:21,799 Speaker 1: mostly there. But now dfs of course, just want to 838 00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:25,680 Speaker 1: just want to next up David Joku. Last week he 839 00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:29,240 Speaker 1: really put up a dud three catches for eight yards. 840 00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:32,040 Speaker 1: I'm having a rough rough time trying to project them 841 00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:35,920 Speaker 1: over under forty and a half receiving yards at home 842 00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:37,200 Speaker 1: against the Panthers this week. 843 00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:38,080 Speaker 2: I'll get there. 844 00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:40,160 Speaker 1: Another media situation for me. 845 00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:43,920 Speaker 3: So you went under, yeah, Pete, Pete went under. I'm 846 00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:46,840 Speaker 3: going over Carolina. I think like they allow the most 847 00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:49,879 Speaker 3: receiving yards in the league to tight ends, And I mean, 848 00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:53,080 Speaker 3: I don't know, It's obviously dependent on how many targets 849 00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:55,160 Speaker 3: they choose to give him, but I think like they 850 00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:58,400 Speaker 3: are just so clearly exploitable by tight ends that that 851 00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:01,320 Speaker 3: will probably enhance his targe get value volume. 852 00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:04,239 Speaker 5: And I just want so badly to believe in him 853 00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:13,000 Speaker 5: that right it should be there. He's touchdowns every week, 854 00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:13,480 Speaker 5: all right. 855 00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:15,840 Speaker 1: Like I mentioned earlier, I think this is the definitely 856 00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:17,560 Speaker 1: the week to just pay up at tight end, not 857 00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:20,759 Speaker 1: deal with these types of guys, but definitely on the 858 00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:25,200 Speaker 1: mind price side, guys like Matt Lacosse and Ian Thomas, 859 00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:27,360 Speaker 1: I think you could go with either one of those. 860 00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:30,080 Speaker 1: So who do you guys think will score more DT 861 00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:32,280 Speaker 1: points Matt Lacos or Ian Thomas. 862 00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:34,320 Speaker 2: They tie at zero. 863 00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:39,080 Speaker 5: Lacasse Ian Thomas because at least he's getting some targets. 864 00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:40,560 Speaker 4: And I do like that game a lot. 865 00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:44,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, uh goes scoreless last week? Did he did? He 866 00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:46,520 Speaker 1: didn't like he didn't get a catch? Right? 867 00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:47,040 Speaker 2: Yeah? 868 00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:50,000 Speaker 3: I think he had one target, right, maybe one target? 869 00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:53,560 Speaker 3: Zero catches? Yeah, yeah, I will go with Thomas. I 870 00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:56,240 Speaker 3: think he has a higher probability of scoring a touchdown 871 00:43:56,320 --> 00:44:00,920 Speaker 3: to Broncos. Baby Renee. Your articles, you have articles that 872 00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:03,919 Speaker 3: come out each week. What pieces of your should people 873 00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:05,120 Speaker 3: look to check out this week? 874 00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:07,719 Speaker 5: Well, Tuesday, I have my sort of intro to the 875 00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:13,040 Speaker 5: week based on Vegas lines and spreads games to target 876 00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:15,359 Speaker 5: games to avoid. That kind of thing gives a nice 877 00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:17,880 Speaker 5: sort of broad vision for the week. And then I 878 00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:22,319 Speaker 5: have bargains on Wednesday and fades on Friday. Those are 879 00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:24,239 Speaker 5: all at Roada World, and then I do kind of 880 00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:28,040 Speaker 5: a unique piece at the Athletic that comes out Friday morning. 881 00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:31,640 Speaker 5: They call it Brain Games. It's got some cognitive bias 882 00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:33,880 Speaker 5: stuff thrown in. We're going to switch it up a 883 00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:37,319 Speaker 5: little bit for the playoffs. So that's always a fun 884 00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:37,759 Speaker 5: one too. 885 00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:40,680 Speaker 3: Everyone be sure to check that out. That stuff sounds 886 00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:42,400 Speaker 3: great and that is going to do it. For this 887 00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:45,800 Speaker 3: episode of the Action Network NFL podcast, be sure to rate, review, 888 00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:48,560 Speaker 3: and subscribe to the pod for all of our upcoming episodes. 889 00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:51,319 Speaker 3: For Peter Jenny and Sean Corner and Renee Miller, I'm 890 00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:52,960 Speaker 3: Matthew Friedman Matt at the Oracle. 891 00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:54,960 Speaker 2: See you again next episode. 892 00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:00,279 Speaker 1: SA