WEBVTT - When Has a Single Vote Decided an Election?

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to brain Stuff production of iHeart Radio. Hey brain Stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>Lauren vogbamb here, You've probably heard the old truism that

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<v Speaker 1>every vote counts. But judging from the history of low

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<v Speaker 1>voter participation in US elections compared with that in other

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<v Speaker 1>developed countries, it seems that many Americans haven't believed that

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<v Speaker 1>casting a ballot for a particular candidate or for a

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<v Speaker 1>particular issue really matters that much. In the case of

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<v Speaker 1>the twenty six team presidential election, this was substantiated by

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<v Speaker 1>a Pew Research Center survey in which of non voters

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<v Speaker 1>who were eligible to cast a ballot cited my vote

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<v Speaker 1>would not matter as the explanation for why they abstained.

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<v Speaker 1>That's nearly as high as the number who said that

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<v Speaker 1>they didn't vote because they didn't like either candidate, and

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<v Speaker 1>higher than the portion who had neglected to register by

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<v Speaker 1>the deadline. When it comes down to it, the chances

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<v Speaker 1>of a single voter casting what searchers call a pivotal vote,

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<v Speaker 1>that is, a single vote that swings an election are

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<v Speaker 1>pretty remote, but it does happen. In a two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>one study, University of Chicago economics professor K. C. B.

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<v Speaker 1>Mulligan and business economic consultant Charles G. Hunter studied nearly

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<v Speaker 1>a century's worth of congressional election results and twenty one

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<v Speaker 1>years worth the state legislative election returns, nearly fifty seven

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<v Speaker 1>thousand elections at all, not counting uncontested races. Out of

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<v Speaker 1>the sixteen thousand, five hundred and seventy seven federal elections studied,

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<v Speaker 1>only one was decided by a single vote, but the

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<v Speaker 1>researchers found seven state elections that came down to a

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<v Speaker 1>single ballot. As Mulligan wrote in a post for the

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<v Speaker 1>New York Times Economics blog, the chances that a voter

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<v Speaker 1>will cast a ballot that will determine the winner of

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<v Speaker 1>a federal election is less than one in one hundred thousand.

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<v Speaker 1>In state races, the odds increased to one in less

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<v Speaker 1>than twenty five thousand. In local elections, where the electorate

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<v Speaker 1>may be in the few thousands or even hundreds, Pivotal

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<v Speaker 1>votes can happen even more often. While nationwide data isn't available.

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<v Speaker 1>In Ohio alone, fourteen races for office in resulted in

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<v Speaker 1>either a tie or a single vote margin, according to

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<v Speaker 1>the Record Courier newspaper. We spoke with Mulligan via email.

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<v Speaker 1>He said that determined the winner, incentive to vote is minuscule.

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<v Speaker 1>Even in a local election with say two thousand votes,

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<v Speaker 1>it's still only a one in one thousand chance. But

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<v Speaker 1>even though one vote has only a tiny chance of

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<v Speaker 1>being deep pivotal one in an election, that doesn't mean

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<v Speaker 1>that voting isn't important. Collectively, votes matter a great deal.

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<v Speaker 1>Certain groups in the population that have higher turnout rates,

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<v Speaker 1>such as older voters, the wealthy, and white Americans, benefit

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<v Speaker 1>from the clout that they achieve as a result. But

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<v Speaker 1>we also spoke with Sean McElwee, an analyst for Demos,

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<v Speaker 1>which is a public policy organization that works to reduce

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<v Speaker 1>plitical and economic inequality in the United States. He said,

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<v Speaker 1>when gaps in turn out are smaller, policies more equitable.

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<v Speaker 1>Even in deeply blue or red districts, vote shares send

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<v Speaker 1>important signals to representatives about their constituents. In local elections

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<v Speaker 1>where turnout rates are often single digit, vote margins are

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<v Speaker 1>far narrower, and turnout is even more skewed against people

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<v Speaker 1>of color, young people, and low income folks. Of course,

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<v Speaker 1>some of that turnout is influenced by citizens access to voting,

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<v Speaker 1>including their ability to get correct and timely information about

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<v Speaker 1>ways for them to make their vote and their ability

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<v Speaker 1>to actually get to the polls or send in an

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<v Speaker 1>absentee ballot. Many states and localities have been accused of

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<v Speaker 1>voter suppression that is purposefully making it difficult for people

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<v Speaker 1>from these demographics that are traditionally underrepresented at the polls

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<v Speaker 1>to start making themselves heard through voting. But that's a

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<v Speaker 1>different episode. Today, let's talk about a few of the

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<v Speaker 1>elections that were decided by single vote. The only congressional

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<v Speaker 1>election to have been determined by a single vote was

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<v Speaker 1>the nineteen ten election for the thirty six Congressional district

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<v Speaker 1>of New York. Democratic challenger Charles Bennett Smith, a newspaper

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<v Speaker 1>editor by trade and an advocate of prohibition, faced Republican

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<v Speaker 1>incumbent D. S. Alexander. According to a New York Times

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<v Speaker 1>article from November twentie of that year, after the initial

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<v Speaker 1>counting of the returns, the two candidates were tied at

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand, six hundred and eighty four votes each, but

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<v Speaker 1>the election board noticed an error in the total on

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<v Speaker 1>a tally sheet from one district. When it was corrected,

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<v Speaker 1>Smith received the single vote needed to elect him According

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<v Speaker 1>to his Congressional biography, Smith became the chairman of the

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<v Speaker 1>House Committee on Foreign Affairs and was elected three more

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<v Speaker 1>times to Congress before losing a re election bid in

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen eight. But the city of seat Pleasant, Maryland, had

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<v Speaker 1>one of the strangest one vote elections ever in the

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<v Speaker 1>year two thousand. It was decided by a vote that

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't cast. A woman showed up at her polling place

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<v Speaker 1>on the evening of the election, and though she was

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<v Speaker 1>registered to vote, her name didn't show up in the

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<v Speaker 1>records because she had changed her address. Officials did not

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<v Speaker 1>allow her to cast a ballot for the candidate of

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<v Speaker 1>her choice, Thurman D. Jones Jr. And Jones lost the

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<v Speaker 1>election two hundred and forty seven to two hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>forty six to incumbent Eugene F. Kennedy. Jones later filed

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<v Speaker 1>a lawsuit contesting the result, but in a two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>one ruling, the Maryland Court of Appeals overturned a lower

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<v Speaker 1>court ruling and left Kennedy as the winner because it

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<v Speaker 1>had not been shown that fraud had been committed. Then

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<v Speaker 1>there's the case of the twelve Democratic primary for the

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<v Speaker 1>eighty seventh Legislative district in Missouri because of redistricting, Representative

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<v Speaker 1>Stacy Newman was pitted in a primary against a fellow legislator,

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<v Speaker 1>Representative Susan Carlson. On election night, Newman prevailed by a

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<v Speaker 1>single vote, one thousand, eight hundred and twenty three to

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<v Speaker 1>one thousand, eight hundred and twenty two, but the St.

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<v Speaker 1>Louis County Election Board declined to certify the results, saying

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<v Speaker 1>that a hundred and two voters at one polling place

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<v Speaker 1>had mistakenly been given ballots for a neighboring district. But

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<v Speaker 1>in a do over primary seven weeks later, the result

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<v Speaker 1>was unchanged. Newman again won, this time by votes, and

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<v Speaker 1>in one instance, a one vote election result included a

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<v Speaker 1>ballot cast by a deceased voter. In two thousand eleven,

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<v Speaker 1>in the village of Manilis, New York, a man named

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<v Speaker 1>Arnold Ferguson, who was the father of one of the

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<v Speaker 1>candidates for the village board, submitted an absentee ballot ahead

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<v Speaker 1>of election day, but then died three weeks before the election.

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<v Speaker 1>Election officials later admitted that Ferguson's vote should not have

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<v Speaker 1>been counted, but the state Supreme Court ruled the ballot

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<v Speaker 1>couldn't be challenged after it was removed from its envelope.

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<v Speaker 1>It's unclear what impact the ballot had on the outcome,

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<v Speaker 1>in which Harold Hopkinson won by a single vote over

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<v Speaker 1>Mark Baum. Today's episode was written by Patrick J. Kaiger

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<v Speaker 1>and produced by Tyler Clang. For more on list and

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<v Speaker 1>lots of other topics, visit how stuff works dot com.

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