1 00:00:01,920 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: Welcome to brain Stuff production of iHeart Radio. Hey brain Stuff, 2 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:11,640 Speaker 1: Lauren vogbamb here, You've probably heard the old truism that 3 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 1: every vote counts. But judging from the history of low 4 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,759 Speaker 1: voter participation in US elections compared with that in other 5 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:22,599 Speaker 1: developed countries, it seems that many Americans haven't believed that 6 00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:25,439 Speaker 1: casting a ballot for a particular candidate or for a 7 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: particular issue really matters that much. In the case of 8 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:33,479 Speaker 1: the twenty six team presidential election, this was substantiated by 9 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 1: a Pew Research Center survey in which of non voters 10 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 1: who were eligible to cast a ballot cited my vote 11 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 1: would not matter as the explanation for why they abstained. 12 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:46,559 Speaker 1: That's nearly as high as the number who said that 13 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:50,599 Speaker 1: they didn't vote because they didn't like either candidate, and 14 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:53,159 Speaker 1: higher than the portion who had neglected to register by 15 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 1: the deadline. When it comes down to it, the chances 16 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 1: of a single voter casting what searchers call a pivotal vote, 17 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 1: that is, a single vote that swings an election are 18 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 1: pretty remote, but it does happen. In a two thousand 19 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 1: one study, University of Chicago economics professor K. C. B. 20 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 1: Mulligan and business economic consultant Charles G. Hunter studied nearly 21 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 1: a century's worth of congressional election results and twenty one 22 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 1: years worth the state legislative election returns, nearly fifty seven 23 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 1: thousand elections at all, not counting uncontested races. Out of 24 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 1: the sixteen thousand, five hundred and seventy seven federal elections studied, 25 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:36,120 Speaker 1: only one was decided by a single vote, but the 26 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:38,959 Speaker 1: researchers found seven state elections that came down to a 27 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:42,959 Speaker 1: single ballot. As Mulligan wrote in a post for the 28 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:46,480 Speaker 1: New York Times Economics blog, the chances that a voter 29 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 1: will cast a ballot that will determine the winner of 30 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 1: a federal election is less than one in one hundred thousand. 31 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 1: In state races, the odds increased to one in less 32 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 1: than twenty five thousand. In local elections, where the electorate 33 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 1: may be in the few thousands or even hundreds, Pivotal 34 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 1: votes can happen even more often. While nationwide data isn't available. 35 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 1: In Ohio alone, fourteen races for office in resulted in 36 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 1: either a tie or a single vote margin, according to 37 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 1: the Record Courier newspaper. We spoke with Mulligan via email. 38 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 1: He said that determined the winner, incentive to vote is minuscule. 39 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 1: Even in a local election with say two thousand votes, 40 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:32,359 Speaker 1: it's still only a one in one thousand chance. But 41 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 1: even though one vote has only a tiny chance of 42 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:38,639 Speaker 1: being deep pivotal one in an election, that doesn't mean 43 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 1: that voting isn't important. Collectively, votes matter a great deal. 44 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 1: Certain groups in the population that have higher turnout rates, 45 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:49,919 Speaker 1: such as older voters, the wealthy, and white Americans, benefit 46 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:53,359 Speaker 1: from the clout that they achieve as a result. But 47 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 1: we also spoke with Sean McElwee, an analyst for Demos, 48 00:02:56,840 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 1: which is a public policy organization that works to reduce 49 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:04,120 Speaker 1: plitical and economic inequality in the United States. He said, 50 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 1: when gaps in turn out are smaller, policies more equitable. 51 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:11,960 Speaker 1: Even in deeply blue or red districts, vote shares send 52 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:16,640 Speaker 1: important signals to representatives about their constituents. In local elections 53 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 1: where turnout rates are often single digit, vote margins are 54 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: far narrower, and turnout is even more skewed against people 55 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 1: of color, young people, and low income folks. Of course, 56 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 1: some of that turnout is influenced by citizens access to voting, 57 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: including their ability to get correct and timely information about 58 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 1: ways for them to make their vote and their ability 59 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 1: to actually get to the polls or send in an 60 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: absentee ballot. Many states and localities have been accused of 61 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 1: voter suppression that is purposefully making it difficult for people 62 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 1: from these demographics that are traditionally underrepresented at the polls 63 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: to start making themselves heard through voting. But that's a 64 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 1: different episode. Today, let's talk about a few of the 65 00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 1: elections that were decided by single vote. The only congressional 66 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 1: election to have been determined by a single vote was 67 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 1: the nineteen ten election for the thirty six Congressional district 68 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 1: of New York. Democratic challenger Charles Bennett Smith, a newspaper 69 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 1: editor by trade and an advocate of prohibition, faced Republican 70 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 1: incumbent D. S. Alexander. According to a New York Times 71 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:23,279 Speaker 1: article from November twentie of that year, after the initial 72 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 1: counting of the returns, the two candidates were tied at 73 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 1: two thousand, six hundred and eighty four votes each, but 74 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 1: the election board noticed an error in the total on 75 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:36,600 Speaker 1: a tally sheet from one district. When it was corrected, 76 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 1: Smith received the single vote needed to elect him According 77 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 1: to his Congressional biography, Smith became the chairman of the 78 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 1: House Committee on Foreign Affairs and was elected three more 79 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:49,359 Speaker 1: times to Congress before losing a re election bid in 80 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: nineteen eight. But the city of seat Pleasant, Maryland, had 81 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 1: one of the strangest one vote elections ever in the 82 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 1: year two thousand. It was decided by a vote that 83 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:02,359 Speaker 1: wasn't cast. A woman showed up at her polling place 84 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 1: on the evening of the election, and though she was 85 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 1: registered to vote, her name didn't show up in the 86 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: records because she had changed her address. Officials did not 87 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 1: allow her to cast a ballot for the candidate of 88 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:17,359 Speaker 1: her choice, Thurman D. Jones Jr. And Jones lost the 89 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 1: election two hundred and forty seven to two hundred and 90 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:24,279 Speaker 1: forty six to incumbent Eugene F. Kennedy. Jones later filed 91 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:27,160 Speaker 1: a lawsuit contesting the result, but in a two thousand 92 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,359 Speaker 1: one ruling, the Maryland Court of Appeals overturned a lower 93 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:33,159 Speaker 1: court ruling and left Kennedy as the winner because it 94 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: had not been shown that fraud had been committed. Then 95 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 1: there's the case of the twelve Democratic primary for the 96 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:45,840 Speaker 1: eighty seventh Legislative district in Missouri because of redistricting, Representative 97 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 1: Stacy Newman was pitted in a primary against a fellow legislator, 98 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:53,279 Speaker 1: Representative Susan Carlson. On election night, Newman prevailed by a 99 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 1: single vote, one thousand, eight hundred and twenty three to 100 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 1: one thousand, eight hundred and twenty two, but the St. 101 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:03,160 Speaker 1: Louis County Election Board declined to certify the results, saying 102 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 1: that a hundred and two voters at one polling place 103 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:09,359 Speaker 1: had mistakenly been given ballots for a neighboring district. But 104 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: in a do over primary seven weeks later, the result 105 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:18,360 Speaker 1: was unchanged. Newman again won, this time by votes, and 106 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,719 Speaker 1: in one instance, a one vote election result included a 107 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 1: ballot cast by a deceased voter. In two thousand eleven, 108 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 1: in the village of Manilis, New York, a man named 109 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:30,919 Speaker 1: Arnold Ferguson, who was the father of one of the 110 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 1: candidates for the village board, submitted an absentee ballot ahead 111 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 1: of election day, but then died three weeks before the election. 112 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 1: Election officials later admitted that Ferguson's vote should not have 113 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 1: been counted, but the state Supreme Court ruled the ballot 114 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:47,719 Speaker 1: couldn't be challenged after it was removed from its envelope. 115 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 1: It's unclear what impact the ballot had on the outcome, 116 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 1: in which Harold Hopkinson won by a single vote over 117 00:06:54,839 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: Mark Baum. Today's episode was written by Patrick J. Kaiger 118 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:05,039 Speaker 1: and produced by Tyler Clang. For more on list and 119 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 1: lots of other topics, visit how stuff works dot com. 120 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 1: Bring Stuff is a production of my heart Radio. For 121 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 1: more podcasts for my heart Radio, visit the iHeart Radio app, 122 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.