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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal.

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Speaker 2: Here, Independent media just played a truly massive role in

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Speaker 2: this election, and we are so excited about what that

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Speaker 2: means for the future of this show.

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Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 2: you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free,

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Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com.

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Speaker 1: Good morning, and welcome to Breaking Points. We have a

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Speaker 1: huge show, Crystal.

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Speaker 4: Don't we Is that what I'm supposed to say here

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Speaker 4: in Stager's booster seat.

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Speaker 5: Indeed we do. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Well, we got a bunch of gods decisions yesterday, some

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Speaker 2: quite consequential ones.

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Speaker 5: There are more expected today.

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Speaker 2: We also have a little bit of reaction from the

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Speaker 2: Steve Bannon and Benny Johnson's of the world.

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Speaker 5: We want to get to.

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Speaker 2: But Pisco is going to join us to break down

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Speaker 2: all of those decisions and what they mean. We also

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Speaker 2: it is officially an addition of pay ping points. Today

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Speaker 2: we got Robert Pape stopping by virtually to talk to

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Speaker 2: us about what he thinks unfolded over the weekend and

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Speaker 2: what is likely to happen moving forward. We've got several

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Speaker 2: NBA veterans who have been arrested now for alleged gambling

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Speaker 2: and game fixing. Some very significant allegations there to dig into,

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Speaker 2: and some pretty devastating video proof too of what may

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Speaker 2: have been going on behind the scenes. I guess, suppose,

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Speaker 2: I guess sort of. On the sports beat, we also

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Speaker 2: have Dave Portnoy who's thinking of running against or on

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Speaker 2: Mom Danni in New York City. That would be fun.

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Speaker 2: I would enjoy that.

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Speaker 1: We'd have to go do some on the ground coverage.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, absolutely so I want to encourage Dave and his ambitions.

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Speaker 2: There also some significant AI stories, including new warnings about

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Speaker 2: the size and state of a potential AI bubble. And

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Speaker 2: I'm taking a look at this very interesting story that

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Speaker 2: unfolded unfolded in Utah. We covered this previously, so Kevin

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Speaker 2: O'Leary's behind this massive hyper scale data center in Utah.

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Speaker 5: Local people, we're not.

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Speaker 2: Excited about this, but I got pushed through. Those politicians

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Speaker 2: are now facing a massive reckoning. So two of the

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Speaker 2: three commissioners that voted to greenlight this thing in this

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Speaker 2: local rural county, they.

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Speaker 5: Have been kicked down.

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Speaker 2: And one of the most powerful politicians in the state

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Speaker 2: has just lost his seat in a shocking upset because of.

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Speaker 5: His support of this data center.

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Speaker 2: So I wanted to track all of that down and

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Speaker 2: break it down for you as well.

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Speaker 1: You're going to be tracking the Chinese influence.

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Speaker 5: That's right, Yeah, yeah, I'll be on that poe now.

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Speaker 4: As a reminder, we had tons of people sign up

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Speaker 4: for the newsletter yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Yes, tons of people sign up for the newsletter.

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Speaker 4: Of course, is a free option for the newsletter, but

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Speaker 4: just go to Breakingpoints dot com. We debuted this newsletter

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Speaker 4: yesterday and it's I think a really cool new product Crystal.

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Speaker 2: People seem excited about it. Continue to send us your feedback.

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Speaker 2: Guys love to hear from you all about what you think.

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Speaker 2: But people seem pretty psyched. I think the product looks great.

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Speaker 2: Let us know what you think. Sign up at breakingpoints

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Speaker 2: dot com. Also, if you've become a premium subscriber, you

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Speaker 2: get the entire newslad letter. You also get, you know,

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Speaker 2: the whole show uncut in your inbox every day. And

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Speaker 2: if you had if you are a premium subscriber and

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Speaker 2: you had any trouble and you did not see that email,

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Speaker 2: you didn't receive the email, make sure to message support

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Speaker 2: at supercast dot com to get that work down. If

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Speaker 2: you are a premium subscriber, this should have shown up

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Speaker 2: in your email inbox yesterday.

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Speaker 5: If it didn't, make sure support.

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Speaker 2: At supercast dot com and we will get it all

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Speaker 2: figured out.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I want to make sure everybody gets that because

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Speaker 4: it's really cool. It's like links to things that we're

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Speaker 4: covering on every show. It's been a real labor of love.

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Speaker 4: Shout out to everybody who's been working on it, and

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Speaker 4: we're super excited that it's going to be landing in

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Speaker 4: your inboxes every day.

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Speaker 1: So, Crystal, should we go to.

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Speaker 2: Go to let's talk about some of these decisions that

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Speaker 2: came down yesterday. But we'll actually start a little bit

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Speaker 2: in reverse order here. Piecea Go is going to join

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Speaker 2: us to break down the actual decisions. Emily and I

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Speaker 2: want to do a little bit of the political reaction though.

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Speaker 5: First.

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Speaker 2: Steve Bannon pretty unhappy with some of it was a

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Speaker 2: real mixed bag yesterday. I'll just say that in terms of,

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Speaker 2: you know, your ideological perspective. And Steve Bannon quite upset

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Speaker 2: some of the decisions did not go the way that

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Speaker 2: he wanted them to.

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Speaker 5: Let's take a listen to what he had to say.

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Speaker 6: You're going to get another wake up call. And that's

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Speaker 6: on birthrights, citizenship. Cony Barrett, that crowd, man, she was

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Speaker 6: a lovely pick. Did anybody do any due diligence here?

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Speaker 6: I know it was quite behind the scenes, it was

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Speaker 6: quite contentious.

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Speaker 7: Before, but the right to life crowd, Hey, did you

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Speaker 7: do your due diligence? Are you happy with what you got?

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Speaker 5: Emily?

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Speaker 2: How common a sentiment is this on the hardcore right

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Speaker 2: that Amy Coney Barrett has been this grave disappointment and

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Speaker 2: a traitor to the cause, etc.

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Speaker 4: It's a very common sentiment. And in fact, it started

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Speaker 4: with Neil Gorsich in the Bostock opinion, which people were

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Speaker 4: really upset about all.

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Speaker 1: The way back when.

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Speaker 4: I mean that was probably like twenty eighteen. It was

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Speaker 4: a long time ago now, and the building.

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Speaker 5: Bostock had to do with gay rights refreshment.

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Speaker 4: It was so yeah, it was protect Title seven Intrinsion

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Speaker 4: of Protections, Okay, And so people thought that Gorsa got

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Speaker 4: the decision totally wrong, and that was a really consequential

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Speaker 4: move for him to side where he did on that case.

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Speaker 4: And so that goes back to the list that Leonard

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Speaker 4: Leo's Federalist Society very famously handed to Trump, and Trump

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Speaker 4: promised then to pick off of the list, and it

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Speaker 4: was if there were any Supreme Court vacancies, which we

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Speaker 4: knew that there would be, and instead.

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Speaker 1: He got three. He didn't just get one, he got three.

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Speaker 4: And so Kavanaugh comes off that amy Cony Barrett is

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Speaker 4: the last one to come off of that list. And

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Speaker 4: so a lot of the Bannons of the world and Maga,

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Speaker 4: the kind of Maga wing see that as the establishment

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Speaker 4: kind of con inc choosing establishment picks to then go

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Speaker 4: to the Supreme Court and getting Trump. Basically at the

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Speaker 4: time when nobody realized that Trump would actually be the president,

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Speaker 4: many people didn't think he would when he agreed to

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Speaker 4: pick off of this list that he now has handed

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Speaker 4: or seeded these seats on the Supreme Court basically to

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Speaker 4: Leonard Leo and the Federalist Society. So that sentiment has

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Speaker 4: been building since Corsic and amy Cony. Barrett is definitely

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Speaker 4: getting the brunt of it. She's gone against the administry

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Speaker 4: on a handful of pretty big cases now, So it's building,

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Speaker 4: and it's uh, this yesterday was pretty consequential in how

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Speaker 4: people have turned against ACB.

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Speaker 2: This is why you can't trust women, Emily Listen. We

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Speaker 2: always that's what we always say.

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Speaker 4: One editorial position here, you cannot trust.

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Speaker 5: Ones, right that, and the women be shopping, women be shopping.

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Speaker 2: Benny Johnson also very unhappy, and specifically using the fact

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Speaker 2: one of the decisions that came down said, actually, it's

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Speaker 2: fine for states to have laws that enable mail in

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Speaker 2: ballots to come in after the election date as long

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Speaker 2: as they are post dated before or on election day.

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Speaker 2: This is the case actually had to do with Mississippi.

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Speaker 2: That's relevant in California, a bunch of other states. Besides,

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Speaker 2: So conservatives very upset about this. Trump very upset about this,

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Speaker 2: and Benny Johnson immediately turning to say, well, this is

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Speaker 2: why we have to have the Save America Act in

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Speaker 2: part because of this ruling. So using this moment to

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Speaker 2: try to push forward this legislation that would limit the

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Speaker 2: vote in a way that Republicans think will be favorable

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Speaker 2: for them.

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Speaker 5: Let's listen to Benny Johnson.

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Speaker 8: And as soon as she gets to the Supreme Court,

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Speaker 8: Amy Coney Barrett changes the stalwart Catholic conservative upholding of

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Speaker 8: Christian and constitutional values morphed almost immediately into one of

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Speaker 8: these little short goblins which make up the only three

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Speaker 8: left wing Supreme Court justices. And all of them are

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Speaker 8: doing extremely poorly right now, I mean, goodness gracious, and

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Speaker 8: they're in like complete and total collapse, and they have

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Speaker 8: no chance to win any decision. If the Conservatives could

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Speaker 8: just stay together, Conservatives could actually lose a vote. You

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Speaker 8: can lose John Roberts, he's squished. Everybody knows that, George W.

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Speaker 7: Bush.

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Speaker 8: But you can't lose the Trump nominees. And I know

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Speaker 8: it's anecdotal, but here's this footage of President Trump after

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Speaker 8: the State of the Union and he's talking to Amy Barrett,

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Speaker 8: and you can see shehtes him, she despises him. It's

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Speaker 8: just obvious when you study body language.

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Speaker 5: It's just obvious.

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Speaker 2: Although he's totally picking up on like he's like mimicking

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Speaker 2: Tucker there. Oh funny, don't you hear that? It's just

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Speaker 2: obvious when you look at that, sounds very Tucker. But

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Speaker 2: in any case, obviously he's on the you know, ACB

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Speaker 2: betrayed us beat.

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Speaker 5: He goes on to talk about.

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Speaker 2: The Stay of America Act as well in his deep

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Speaker 2: disappointment there so well, and he says, we're looking right

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Speaker 2: down the barrel of a full fledged third world communist invasion.

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Speaker 4: Emily, we can ask Peace go about this. But I

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Speaker 4: was reading Barrett's opinion. Barrett wrote the opinion in that case,

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Speaker 4: and it's not like she just sided with them. She

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Speaker 4: wrote the opinion, and it was interesting that she was

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Speaker 4: kind of making an originalist argument. It's a the ballot

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Speaker 4: case is interesting because you have federal election law and

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Speaker 4: then you have state election law, and there's supposed to

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Speaker 4: be a federalist process in election law, which is actually

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Speaker 4: a lot of the controversy over the same America Act like,

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Speaker 4: but she kind of tried to make an originalist argument.

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Speaker 4: I'm curious what Piececo is going to think about this.

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Speaker 4: But for the way that Mississippi is able to control

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Speaker 4: elections locally based on what constitutes day of with mailing,

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Speaker 4: so the way she wrote the opinion is actually pretty

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Speaker 4: interesting given why she was picked for that seat.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think it's fair to make an originalist argument,

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Speaker 2: because the whole idea is the states get to, you know,

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Speaker 2: run the elections the way they want to run the elections.

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Speaker 2: And there's been a lot of difference throughout history to

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Speaker 2: that principle. You might dispute that that's the right way

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Speaker 2: to do it. It has its pluses and its minuses.

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Speaker 2: You know, in some ways, I do think it would

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Speaker 2: be good to have one coherent national standard. Okay, here's

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Speaker 2: how we do it, Here's how mail and ballots work,

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Speaker 2: here's what we expect in terms of account. That might

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Speaker 2: be a better system, but it's not the system that

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Speaker 2: we have, no, So so you know, I don't think

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Speaker 2: that that is dissonant with an originalist reading of you know,

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Speaker 2: the way things have operated in this country since this beginning.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and just to be clear, by the time some

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Speaker 4: people might watch the segment, things will be popping off

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Speaker 4: once again. We're expecting to today actually within a matter

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Speaker 4: of a couple of hours. Opinions in the birthright citizenship case,

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Speaker 4: a transathletes case, and if Barrett goes against the conservative

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Speaker 4: the sort of consensus conservative consensus on those questions, this

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Speaker 4: could get even more I mean, there's nothing anybody can

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Speaker 4: do about it, and she's.

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Speaker 2: Probably likely to on birthrights as citizenship. I mean, most

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Speaker 2: scholars who looked at that one were like, not a chance.

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Speaker 2: This one is very unlikely to go the way the

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Speaker 2: Trump administration wants. So it may not just be her

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Speaker 2: of the Trump picks that is disappointing to these deep

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Speaker 2: Bannons of the world.

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Speaker 4: Remember he Donald Trump sat through those oral arguments and

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Speaker 4: like stared the justices down.

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Speaker 2: Yes so, and didn't leave early because he was unhappy

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Speaker 2: with how it was going.

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Speaker 5: That's my recollection.

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Speaker 4: I think that was the reading of why he got

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Speaker 4: up and made a show of leaving. So in the

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Speaker 4: opinion here, Barrett writes, we must decide whether the federal

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Speaker 4: election day statutes preempt Mississippi's law.

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Speaker 1: They do not, and so peace will help us explain

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Speaker 1: exactly what.

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Speaker 4: The layers are of government control, local and federal government control.

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Speaker 4: But it's interesting because one of the reasons that she

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Speaker 4: was selected is she's seen as somebody who's in the

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Speaker 4: Originalist tradition, a Scalia tradition, which is what the Federalist

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Speaker 4: Society specifically vets for They don't vet necessarily. This is

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Speaker 4: one of the big criticisms of Maga world of the

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Speaker 4: federal society. They're not like vetting for in any way whatsoever,

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Speaker 4: like Trump loyalty or at the time it would have

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Speaker 4: been like Tea Party loyalty. It's originalism, and she kind

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Speaker 4: of was trying to make an originalist argument here in

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Speaker 4: the opinion.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, well, let's go ahead and bring peace

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Speaker 2: Go in and he can break down each one of

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Speaker 2: these and help us understand their import.

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Speaker 4: Well, we're joined once again by Peace Go. You can

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Speaker 4: check out Peace co Lidy on YouTube. Former litigator Pias Go.

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Speaker 4: Thank you so much for joining us here just on

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Speaker 4: this day. We're expecting more opinions, but we're breaking down

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Speaker 4: already a few major opinions that were handed down yesterday

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Speaker 4: by the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 1: It's great to have you back.

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Speaker 7: Thank you, Thank you so much for having me.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we just wanted to get your general reaction to

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Speaker 4: a few big decisions that came out yesterday. We started

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Speaker 4: this segment by looking at the political reaction to Amy

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Speaker 4: Coney Barrett's decision to side against the Trump administration in

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Speaker 4: that case about mail in ballots. Some of the kind

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Speaker 4: of Maga Wing is very very upset once again with

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Speaker 4: Amy Coney Barrett. But a couple other big decisions came

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Speaker 4: down yesterday as well. We put a four up on

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Speaker 4: the screen. This is basically the overturning of Humphrey's executor.

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Speaker 4: The Supreme Court allowed Donald Trump to fire Rebecca Slaughter,

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Speaker 4: the FTC commissioner, which finally formally basically overturned Humphrey's executor,

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Speaker 4: which itself overturned Franklin delan or Roosevelt what was in

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Speaker 4: nineteen thirty three, I think piecego. But also then we

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Speaker 4: could put a five up on the screen. This is

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Speaker 4: a companion decision in a way. The Supreme Court ruled

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Speaker 4: that Trump's firing of Lisa Cook from the FED was unconstitutional.

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Speaker 4: The argument in that case, interestingly enough, was basically that

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Speaker 4: he didn't give her enough time to respond. This was

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Speaker 4: John Roberts that you said, maybe he has the authority,

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Speaker 4: but you have to give her time to respond. Finally,

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Speaker 4: the case that we were just referenced sing the mail in.

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Speaker 1: Ballots, this is a six. They allowed state law that

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Speaker 1: said federal law didn't preempt state law. And you're going

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Speaker 1: to break this down for us piece go in just

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Speaker 1: one second.

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Speaker 4: But let's start with this broad based reaction, your broad

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Speaker 4: based reaction to what happened yesterday.

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Speaker 1: These decisions, the breakdown of the decisions. What did you

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Speaker 1: make of it?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, in general, I think the reaction has been justifiably

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Speaker 9: so a bad day for Trump. A lot of the

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Speaker 9: decisions regarding the FTC and sort of the executive power

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Speaker 9: stuff that was already baked in. We already had the

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Speaker 9: shadow docket opinions on the FTC that indicated where the

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Speaker 9: court was going to go when it came to the

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Speaker 9: removal authority of a president. But in general, we have

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Speaker 9: a loss for Trump on the issue of the mail

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Speaker 9: in ballots. They denied circiarra, which means they denied review.

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Speaker 9: On the Egene Carol case, there was a win on

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Speaker 9: you know, individual rights when it came to certain searches

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Speaker 9: and seizures, and then on the docket for hopefully today

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Speaker 9: we'll have a birthright citizenship opinion. So in general, the

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Speaker 9: outlook has been this is a loss for the administration

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Speaker 9: because the sort of opinions regarding executive power removal were

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Speaker 9: already baked into the expectations. But we can get more

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Speaker 9: into the weeds on the particular opinions.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's dive into Let's consider both the FTC decision

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Speaker 2: and also the Federal Reserve Board decision, because I think

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Speaker 2: for most people who are looking at this, they're like, wait,

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Speaker 2: why can he fire whoever he wants at every other

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Speaker 2: federal government agency or independent commission but he can't in

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Speaker 2: this one instance? How did they try to how did

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Speaker 2: they try to navigate that? And also I understand the

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Speaker 2: cake was kind of already baked here. We all knew

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Speaker 2: what direction the FDC was going in or the FDC

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Speaker 2: decision was going in, but still very consequential in terms

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Speaker 2: of a further consolidation of power in the executive branch.

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Speaker 7: Hugely consequential.

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Speaker 9: I would say that this is the most clear and

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Speaker 9: elaborate exposition on the unitary executive theory that we've had,

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Speaker 9: even more so, I would say, than Trump versus the

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Speaker 9: United States.

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Speaker 7: The immunity decision.

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Speaker 9: So very impactful because essentially, what this decision says is

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Speaker 9: for most quote unquote independent agencies that the president is

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Speaker 9: going to retain removal authority and thereby a lot more

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Speaker 9: control over these independent agencies that a lot of them

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Speaker 9: were constructed in the shadow of the case that was

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Speaker 9: referenced by Emily Humphrey's executor.

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Speaker 7: So what's going on here?

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Speaker 9: So, in general, what the Court is saying, the logic

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Speaker 9: of the opinion is that the Constitution of the United

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Speaker 9: States gives to the president full executive power unified. He

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Speaker 9: can't lend it out, he can't give it to other

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Speaker 9: branches of government. And really, when executive officials are using

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Speaker 9: the executive power, they're kind of.

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Speaker 7: Just borrowing the power of the president.

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Speaker 9: Now, why is this justified in the court's mind? I,

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Speaker 9: by the way, totally disagree with the opinion for certain

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Speaker 9: reason that we can get into. But the justification is

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Speaker 9: based on the vesting clause of Article two, which that's

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Speaker 9: the executive power into one president according to the justices,

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Speaker 9: and also some of the writings of the framers, which

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Speaker 9: they sort of speak about a vigorous executive and the

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Speaker 9: First Congress of the United States, which decided as a

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Speaker 9: matter of statute that the president should have a great

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Speaker 9: deal of removal authority, even though the Constitution doesn't sort

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Speaker 9: of mention it explicitly. Long story short, the Court held

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Speaker 9: that the removal power is like inherently executive and so

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Speaker 9: for basically most independent agencies except for ASTERIX the Federal Reserve,

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Speaker 9: the president is going to retain that authority.

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Speaker 4: Well, yeah, let's talk about it. Because John Robert, It's

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Speaker 4: correct me if I'm wrong, wrote both of the opinions

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Speaker 4: of Slaughter opinion and Cook opinion. So Pisca tried to

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Speaker 4: explain to us the logic of John Roberts distinguishing between

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Speaker 4: the FED and in this case, the FTC. But really

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Speaker 4: all of these executive agencies that fall under the purview

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Speaker 4: of the president.

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Speaker 9: Listen, I'm going to take a moment of personal privilege

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Speaker 9: and say that at least some of these conservative justices

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Speaker 9: like Clarence Thomas, in my mind, have a more coherent

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Speaker 9: through line in terms of judicial philosophy. And I'm sure

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Speaker 9: some conservatives agree that John Roberts always seems to be

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Speaker 9: trying to split the.

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Speaker 7: Baby in some way.

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Speaker 9: Now, as it happens in this particular case, we'll give

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Speaker 9: him a little bit of a break on the two

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Speaker 9: different decisions, at least at step one, because they really

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Speaker 9: weren't The government wasn't as much contesting the substantive authority

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Speaker 9: of removal from the president to the Federal Reserve specifically,

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Speaker 9: or to the governors in this case, they had already

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Speaker 9: lost that battle in the shadow docket, and they were

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Speaker 9: basically just arguing that Trump has a great deal of

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Speaker 9: discretion in whether or not for cause has been achieved,

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Speaker 9: and so in line with a lot of the other

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Speaker 9: arguments that the administration has been leveling, that stuff is

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Speaker 9: unreviewable and the president has to be given this massive

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Speaker 9: deference on ascertaining facts and circumstances. The court was basically

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Speaker 9: just assessing whether or not the courts have a basis

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Speaker 9: to question what the president is doing when he's removing

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Speaker 9: someone who's protected for cause. And so it wasn't squarely

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Speaker 9: that decision on point regarding the overall constitutional authority, And

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Speaker 9: what the Court said is we can work it out

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Speaker 9: later in terms of what the limits here on the

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Speaker 9: substance of power, but at a bare minimum, you got

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Speaker 9: to give Lisa Cook some procedural protection, some guardrails before

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Speaker 9: you make the decision. We can get into, though, and

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Speaker 9: I think we should, the sort of fundamental distinction for

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Speaker 9: powers purposes, for constitutional purposes between why the FDC is

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Speaker 9: not protected why the Federal Reserve is protected.

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Speaker 2: Well, David Dan offered his analysis, which I agree with,

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Speaker 2: of why Roberts, you know, went in this direction. He says,

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Speaker 2: Humphrey's executor is dead, and the president can fire anyone

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Speaker 2: in the executive branch at will, but not federal reserve governors.

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Speaker 2: Is really a parody of the difference between the money

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Speaker 2: power and everything else in America.

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Speaker 5: And that's the way I read this as well.

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Speaker 2: And I mean I read all these decisions through a

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Speaker 2: very political lens. I think the Supreme Court and Roberts

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Speaker 2: in particular, is keenly aware of what they can get

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Speaker 2: away with and what the political mood in the country is.

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Speaker 2: The fact that Trump's political power has diminished and he's

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Speaker 2: deeply unpopular, I think makes it more likely that some

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Speaker 2: of these decisions go against him. But in this particular case,

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Speaker 2: you know, Wall Street jealously protects their effective control over

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Speaker 2: the FED, and all Roberts and many of the especially

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Speaker 2: conservative justices on the Court really care a lot about

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Speaker 2: the you know, the corporate institutions and the Wall Street

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Speaker 2: institutions in this country. So that is my read of

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Speaker 2: why they tried to split the difference it this way.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I'm going to put my polemicist haat on just

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Speaker 9: for a quick second and say, yeah, no, good point

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Speaker 9: if you're a cynic, right, Like, what does the FTC do? Oh,

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Speaker 9: I guess they do, like monopoly stuff and consumer protection

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Speaker 9: and all this other stuff, So like it doesn't really

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Speaker 9: matter if we politicize that, But no, don't touch the

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Speaker 9: Federal Reserve.

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Speaker 7: I understand that inclination.

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Speaker 9: And if you read the opinion, there really isn't a

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Speaker 9: lot to go on in terms of a substantive legal

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Speaker 9: rationale as to why the FDC is not protected and

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Speaker 9: why the Federal Reserve is protected. One of the things

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Speaker 9: that they say is quintessentially executive is some sort of

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Speaker 9: like government body implementing rules that affect the conduct of

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Speaker 9: private parties. Well, Crystal, who affects the conduct and the

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Speaker 9: obligations and sort of actions of private parties more than

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Speaker 9: the Federal Reserve of the United States. This is like

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Speaker 9: arguably one of the most influential and powerful agencies that's

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Speaker 9: ever existed. And they spend maybe a paragraph Roberts does

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Speaker 9: talking about the difference and why it could be the

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Speaker 9: case that this could be reasonable and it's totally like

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Speaker 9: devoid of any law. All they say is, well, I

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Speaker 9: guess there was a first and second National Bank of

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Speaker 9: the United States, But that's just explaining that there in

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Speaker 9: fact was like there's some history there. It doesn't explain

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Speaker 9: why it is the case that we fundamentally treat an

442
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,880
Speaker 9: agency like a monetary authority differently than we would treat

443
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 9: an agency like the FTC or any other number of

444
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,520
Speaker 9: independent agencies. It's the void of any legal analysis there,

445
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,200
Speaker 9: and it's really frustrated. Kind of feels like he's playing games.

446
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 5: Pisco.

447
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:51,840
Speaker 2: Do you think that these decisions hit a little bit

448
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:55,159
Speaker 2: different given where we are in the political arc of

449
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 2: Trump's second presidency.

450
00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:57,880
Speaker 5: You know, if this had.

451
00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,199
Speaker 2: Come earlier, when he was at the peak of his

452
00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:03,040
Speaker 2: strength and they were rampaging through the federal government with

453
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 2: DOJE and all of these things, and he fully had

454
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 2: the Republican Party behind him, fully had the MAGA base

455
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:11,200
Speaker 2: behind him, I feel like it would be it would

456
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 2: land a little differently with both the right and the

457
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 2: left than now when they're looking and going, yeah, but

458
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 2: you know who's going to inherit all of this power

459
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:22,200
Speaker 2: in the executive president Grim Plattner, who I was coming

460
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:25,120
Speaker 2: into president AOC or whoever's coming in twenty twenty eight.

461
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 9: Yeah, in terms of how it's landing, because, like we mentioned,

462
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:32,240
Speaker 9: the shadowed docket activity existed, and because like the major

463
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 9: attacks on the executive branch and the Congress and judicial

464
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 9: authorities have already been done. People get used to it,

465
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 9: and it's kind of baked in at this point. And yeah,

466
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 9: you're right, his political power has lessened in recent months

467
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 9: based on polling this disastrous Iran war. But you mentioned

468
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:51,359
Speaker 9: something interesting, you mentioned the tit for tat. Well, if

469
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:53,439
Speaker 9: this is going to give a great deal of power

470
00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 9: to a Republican president, surely it'll be giving the great

471
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 9: amount of power to a future democratic president.

472
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 7: Don't worry. Neil Gorsas has that all figured out.

473
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:03,639
Speaker 9: If you read his concurring opinion, it's clear what at

474
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 9: least he wants to do and probably what the courts

475
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 9: are going to be able to do in the future.

476
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 9: He's talking about reviving doctrines like the non delegation doctrine,

477
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:14,160
Speaker 9: the Major Questions doctrine, and to apply it and reconsider Hey,

478
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 9: are these agencies even constitutional in the first place? And

479
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 9: so I expect that in the future, if you were

480
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 9: to get a democratic president, you would see a lot

481
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:23,760
Speaker 9: more problems in like establishing a regulatory state in the

482
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 9: first instance, given how much authority has now been given

483
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 9: to the president.

484
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:29,440
Speaker 2: Sounds like democrats need to think about packing the court.

485
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 9: Piece go, yeah, well, I am encouraging guys that I

486
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 9: have a number of debates that I've done with Desiah

487
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 9: from pondering politics on court expansion, and yeah, you guys should.

488
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 7: Really consider it.

489
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 4: There's an interesting point from Sonya Soomyor, who wrote a

490
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:45,160
Speaker 4: forty nine page Descent and Sure today the court discards

491
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 4: the democratic regime created by the Constitution quote, in favor

492
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,880
Speaker 4: of one that distorts the structure of government to fit

493
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 4: the majority's theory of unitary, total executive controlled. The results

494
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 4: she concluded, according to the Scotus blog, quote is a

495
00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:00,320
Speaker 4: president who emerges with far greater power than ever before.

496
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,800
Speaker 4: I put that on an X and I was like, well, actually,

497
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,639
Speaker 4: far greater power than ever before Franklin, Delan and Roosevelt.

498
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 4: Because a lot of this actually is downstream of the

499
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 4: last like what eighty well, no, like one hundred years,

500
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 4: you could probably say of American politics. The growth of

501
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 4: the regulatory state after Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson. As

502
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 4: technology radio than eventually television started, and railroads and airplanes

503
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 4: like it just started making this fabric kind of knit

504
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 4: even closer together because it borders to some extent geography

505
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:32,439
Speaker 4: to some extent shrinks down when you have all of

506
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 4: this new stuff, and so you have a federal government

507
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 4: that grows and grows and grows, and conservatives always opposed

508
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 4: a lot of it for some of these exact reasons.

509
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,160
Speaker 4: But it's not I mean, I guess in this case

510
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:47,120
Speaker 4: piece go just going back to FDR pre FDR, there

511
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 4: was a different kind of regime for the federal government.

512
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:51,919
Speaker 4: Is that not correct at the very least?

513
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 9: So I think that the growth of the regulatory state

514
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:57,439
Speaker 9: happened during the twentieth century, and a lot of it,

515
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 9: you're right, like, has some new deal found as there

516
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 9: for sure, But it isn't the case that these kinds

517
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:08,400
Speaker 9: of agencies with protection for us from at will removal

518
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:12,680
Speaker 9: just started in the nineteen thirties. There were examples even

519
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,199
Speaker 9: used in the opinion of some nineteenth century organizations and

520
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:17,919
Speaker 9: agencies within the government that that happened.

521
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 7: But yeah, I mean, you're right, fundamentally.

522
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:24,119
Speaker 9: The belief by people like Neil Gorsich, by the conservatives

523
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 9: on the Supreme.

524
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 7: Court is that a lot of this stuff was a mistake.

525
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 9: That certainly that Humphrey's Executor was a mistake when it

526
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 9: was written. And Huffrey's Executor is a case that Project

527
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 9: twenty twenty five had its eyes set out on, and

528
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 9: that the Phio Society.

529
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 7: Has been let them cook at the cook Well, well, no,

530
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:43,159
Speaker 7: think about this.

531
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 9: And in this congcut of the nineteen thirties, FDRs was

532
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:48,120
Speaker 9: trying to fire Humphrey.

533
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 7: Right, Humphrey is an.

534
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 9: FTC commissioner who was like against He hated Roosevelt and

535
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 9: so so yeah, this was a situation in which he

536
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 9: was frustrated that they didn't let him, or that they

537
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 9: had to pay out humph estate because it was Humphrey's

538
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 9: executor who assuing Roosevelt. But you know, this does have

539
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 9: its origins in a new Deal and in the growth

540
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 9: of the regulatory state, which has been a sensitive and

541
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 9: source subject for conservatives for a long time. You saw

542
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,640
Speaker 9: the decision on the Chevron doctrine the same exact thing.

543
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 9: This is an anti regulatory court.

544
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:21,120
Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about the election law decision

545
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 2: as well. Conservatives very animated about this Trump and many

546
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 2: others using this as yet another reason to push for

547
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,640
Speaker 2: the quote unquote Save America Act.

548
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 5: What do you see? How significant is this decision?

549
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 7: Do you think it's a significant decision.

550
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:39,359
Speaker 9: This was a theory that essentially you had to have

551
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:43,679
Speaker 9: ballot receipt on the date of election. And it's a

552
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 9: wonderful opinion from Amy Cony Barrett. I mean, she goes

553
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 9: through the Dictionary definition of the term election. She runs

554
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 9: through the history to say why it isn't the case

555
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:54,919
Speaker 9: that this is how you should best read the statutes

556
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 9: as requiring instead of casting your ballot on election days,

557
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 9: receiving them ballots on election day. She then also explains

558
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 9: other parts of the Federal Code which presupposed that states

559
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 9: have laws about when they can set ballot receipt. And

560
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 9: so this is a significant opinion on the interpretation of

561
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,640
Speaker 9: those statutes. I will note though it was even though

562
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,479
Speaker 9: I think it's an immaculate opinion, really well done. It

563
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 9: was a five four decision. It was a close shave,

564
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:25,119
Speaker 9: and I think the conservatives and Trump in particular, doesn't

565
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 9: really care so much about these clutches of ballots, you know,

566
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 9: whether they were received afterwards. I think he more cares

567
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 9: about having some justification to have a federal hook into

568
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:36,920
Speaker 9: the elections that are coming up and to either claim

569
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:40,680
Speaker 9: an emergency or claim that something isn't being done according

570
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 9: to law. And so the significance of it I think

571
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 9: is important both for the legal rule on when ballots

572
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 9: need to be received, but also politically. I think it

573
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:50,679
Speaker 9: limits Trump's ability to claim a pretext, so I'm sure

574
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 9: he'll try anyway.

575
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 1: Oh.

576
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 4: Interesting, Curious about your take on the Barrett opinion. Just

577
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 4: I kind of read it as making an almost originalist

578
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 4: argument in terms of who's because it's about preempting federal

579
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 4: law state law versus federal law, and the way that

580
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:08,160
Speaker 4: she wrote it is like pretty fascinating from the perspective

581
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,919
Speaker 4: that people are mad at her for kind of doing

582
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 4: what the Federalist Society and Leonard Leo vetted any Cony

583
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,119
Speaker 4: Barrett to do, which is to be like, listen, I

584
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 4: have no idea how Kaliah would have decided on this case,

585
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 4: but she was am I crazy reading into this trying

586
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 4: to make an r like, oh.

587
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:25,199
Speaker 9: She does originals better than the descent. Yes, she does

588
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 9: originals and better than the descent. She will go to

589
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,919
Speaker 9: the dictionaries used at the time, right, the original public

590
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 9: meaning of the term election. She's like, this obviously means choice.

591
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 9: When does a choice happen, Well, that's when the ballots

592
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,239
Speaker 9: are cast. And you know, just because we don't know

593
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 9: about it until after the decision is made doesn't mean

594
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 9: the decision isn't made. The choice isn't made on the

595
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,360
Speaker 9: day of election and when people actually cast their ballots.

596
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 9: And so yeah, originalism in terms of the dictionary definition,

597
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 9: originalism in terms of deciphering what was meant at the

598
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 9: time that these statutes were passing, like the eighteen sixties

599
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 9: or seventies, and then calling out bad originalism by the

600
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:02,359
Speaker 9: descent when they try to invoke a bunch of you know,

601
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 9: precedent from the nineteen nineteen hundreds. She's like, well, this

602
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 9: isn't supposed to be the day that you look to.

603
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 9: So I think that people are upset with the result here.

604
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,360
Speaker 9: No one's actually among the pundit class or very few

605
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 9: people are looking into the meat and potatoes of the

606
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 9: opinion like you did, Emily. They're just pissed that Trump

607
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,120
Speaker 9: didn't get his way. And so that's the problem when

608
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 9: you have a judicial philosophy it's not always going to

609
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:26,399
Speaker 9: lead you to the place that you want to go.

610
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 9: And that's why I think I respect people like Amy

611
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:31,400
Speaker 9: Cony Barrett, even though she's a very conservative justice, more

612
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 9: than someone like Alito and Roberts.

613
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 2: Frankly, let's talk about what remains outstanding, what we're expecting

614
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 2: to get today. Put a nine up on the screen.

615
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 2: This has some of the details here. We mentioned the

616
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 2: birthright citizenship decision. That's probably, you know, the biggest one

617
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 2: set to come down. We've also got a decision on

618
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 2: transgender athlete bands. Another look at campaign finance, how much

619
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 2: money candidates can spend in coordination with their political parties,

620
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 2: always trying to get more money into our political system.

621
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 2: That's always great. What do you expect on these three

622
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 2: decisions and which ones are you watching as being most important?

623
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 9: Yeah, obviously the most important one is the birthright citizenship decision.

624
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 9: That one is rumored perhaps to come out today. This

625
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 9: is an opinion day now, it's not necessary that it

626
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 9: come out today, but yeah, this one is really I

627
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 9: think not a close call on the legal issues and

628
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 9: a major sensitive subject I think for all you know,

629
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 9: politically involved, So that should be coming down today or

630
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 9: at least.

631
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 5: Sometimes it what's your expectation on a piece.

632
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 7: Go basis, The expectation is that they're going to go

633
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 7: the right way.

634
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 9: I know that it's a conservative leaning court, and I

635
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 9: don't really like this court, but based on the oral

636
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 9: arguments and some of the questions probing questions, even someone

637
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 9: like Neil Gorsich asked, I think it indicates that the

638
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 9: history really isn't on the administration side here. So I

639
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 9: expect something like a six to three decision in favor

640
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 9: of the right decision I think, which is birthright, citizenship

641
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 9: stands in the precedent stand.

642
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 4: Finally, from my perspective, PIECECO one of these other decisions

643
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 4: handed down yesterday that's really significant and actually sort of

644
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 4: cause for some optimism is we can pop up on

645
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 4: the screen a seven the geofence warrant decision. Civil libertarians

646
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 4: were very excited about this one. Here's the headline. Court

647
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 4: rules that law enforcement's use of geofens warn't was a search.

648
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 4: And now this was actually somebody who was caught up

649
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 4: in a robbery case who then challenged us on Fourth

650
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 4: Amendment grounds. If people don't know about geofens warrants, you

651
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 4: absolutely should know about geofens warrants where you can literally,

652
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 4: I mean it's in the name, you can get a

653
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 4: warrant for data, really broad swath of data of people

654
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 4: who were in within a geofence at a given point

655
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 4: in time. I saw some quibbling with the opinion and

656
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,719
Speaker 4: like ultra nerdy circles that you're probably familiar with, piececo

657
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 4: But give us your reaction to this, because it seems

658
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 4: like a significant and great piece of legal news.

659
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's an extense of a previous case that was

660
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 9: decided in like twenty eighteen called Carpenter, and that decision

661
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 9: was basically saying, hey, you have a reasonable expectation of

662
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 9: privacy in your like the omnipresent panopticon information stream, which

663
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 9: is your cell phone location data, and essentially applying principles

664
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 9: of search and seizure to location data in your phone.

665
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 7: So this expanded it from like.

666
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 9: The initial cell tower data to now like Google Google

667
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 9: Location Services, which is actually like more information. It gives

668
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 9: you elevation, it's more precise, it's more information, and so

669
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 9: it's a big win. But in terms of legal development,

670
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 9: it's it's basically just a follow on to Carpenter and

671
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 9: to get into LOWI just a tiny bit. They have

672
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:45,719
Speaker 9: to before they decide whether a search is reasonable, right,

673
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 9: the Fourth Amendment protects you against unreasonable searches and seizures.

674
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 9: They have to decide whether it's even a search first,

675
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 9: And so this was a question of like, when you

676
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 9: ask Google for information regarding your location data, is that

677
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 9: even a search? So there are other legal issues potentially

678
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 9: that could cause the petitioner here to lose, But in general,

679
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 9: the court rule that it is a search, notwithstanding the

680
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 9: fact that you give information to Google and it's a

681
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 9: third party. Because it's such an all encompassing data stream,

682
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 9: and because you have a reasonable expectation to that data stream,

683
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 9: you're going to need to have at least some element

684
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 9: of particularity and some guardrails before the government just gets

685
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 9: that information or just like draws a circle around a

686
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 9: location and gets like everyone's information who ever went there

687
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 9: in the last two hours?

688
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 2: Wow, peace Go anything else we didn't ask you about

689
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 2: that you thought was significant or not where that you

690
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 2: went to weigh on.

691
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 9: I guess the Eging Carrol Denial of of Sert case

692
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 9: where this was the case out of New York. I

693
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 9: believe where there was an alleged sexual assault against Trump,

694
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 9: and that was maintained on appeal, and now the court

695
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 9: has denied any possible recourse for Trump on that case.

696
00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 9: So that's a significant one in terms of the damages

697
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 9: which were talking about, I think tens of millions of

698
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 9: dollars all told, after the actual verdict and then the

699
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 9: defamation case following after that. And Trump is really mad

700
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 9: about that. So that's one other. I guess Supreme Court.

701
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 5: That's money he's going to have to pay to Egene Garrel.

702
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 9: Now, yes, yes, I'm sure he'll like start a coin

703
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 9: or something or fundrase in somepular way.

704
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 7: And so.

705
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 9: Yeah, whenever these things happen or whenever these like I

706
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 9: don't know, indictments of card, seems like he raises more

707
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 9: money or gets more prominence out of it. But at

708
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 9: least you know that has some final settling.

709
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 2: Peace go, Thank you so much, great analysis. As always, everybody,

710
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 2: go and subscribe to his channel. Peace Go Liddy. Great

711
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 2: to see you, my friend, Thank you so much.

712
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 4: What We are joined once again by University of Chicago

713
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 4: professor Robert Pape, author of the Escalation Trap sub stack,

714
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:47,480
Speaker 4: which if you're not following by now you are missing out, professor,

715
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 4: Thank you so much for joining us once again.

716
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 10: Thank you so much for having me, of.

717
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 4: Course much to discuss their negotiations that we're supposed to

718
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 4: be happening in Cutter today. Will actually still see what

719
00:33:57,440 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 4: comes of that. It's unclear even right now at this moment.

720
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 4: But let's start here with b one want to roll

721
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 4: this clip of an Iranian military advisor talking about disagreement

722
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 4: with the Trump administration over the Strait of Hormuz. Obviously,

723
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,360
Speaker 4: the crucial point of levers that are on has in

724
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:16,320
Speaker 4: these negotiations is take a listen.

725
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 11: I'm but regarding fees, there is a cost to mention

726
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 11: to this matter. There is a tolls discussion, a fees discussion.

727
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 11: Our current discussion is about service costs in the Strait

728
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 11: of horm Moose. Yes, we want to maintain the security

729
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 11: of the Strait of Hormuse. We want to protect the

730
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 11: environment of the Strait of form Moose. We must establish

731
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 11: insurance mechanisms so that if incidents occur, ships that encounter

732
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 11: problems are covered to reduce their risk. And when we

733
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:44,239
Speaker 11: provide all of this, these costs cannot come out of

734
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 11: the pockets of the Iranian people. These costs must be

735
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:50,840
Speaker 11: collected from those who are transporting oil through this strait.

736
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 4: Okay, so that's I mean, Professor Pai, tell us how

737
00:34:56,640 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 4: significant that statement is in the context of these new negotiations. Obviously,

738
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 4: as we already mentioned, with which the straight up hoor

739
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 4: news is absolutely the kind of critical part right now.

740
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,240
Speaker 10: It's important in a couple of ways. So number one,

741
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 10: what you are watching in the last week is the

742
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 10: escalation trap snapping back hard. This is what I was

743
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 10: worried about the last time we were on. I realized

744
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:24,240
Speaker 10: we all want this war to be over. We wanted

745
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 10: to be in the endgame. And as I was trying

746
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 10: to explain, we're in the middle game of the escalation

747
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 10: trap pretty much as I have been telling you for

748
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 10: some time. And also the modeling has shown what you

749
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:40,720
Speaker 10: see here is Iran is playing hardball. It is Iran.

750
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 10: The big thing that is catching people by surprise is

751
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 10: most people have been saying, well, if we could just

752
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 10: get President Trump to stop bombing, stop doing the initiation

753
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 10: of the violence, then this whole thing will just be over,

754
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 10: will walk away, It's all going to be good and

755
00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:59,840
Speaker 10: we can go about our merry way. Well, the problem

756
00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 10: is Iran is an actor, and what you are seeing

757
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 10: is as I have been explaining on the posts on

758
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 10: the escalation trap. In this period of time, it's actually

759
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 10: Iran who's most likely to initiate the violence, the bombing,

760
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 10: to close the straight afore moves or diminish the traffic

761
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 10: to keep its leverage. Iran is moving into its period

762
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 10: of maximum leverage because the oil inventories are drawing down

763
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:28,080
Speaker 10: in this period of time. It is going to use

764
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,440
Speaker 10: that leverage to force the Trump administration to stick to

765
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 10: the four corners of the MoU. Now so far they

766
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:37,440
Speaker 10: haven't gone beyond the four corners of the MoU. I

767
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 10: think we can see pretty clearly what Iran's redlines are.

768
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 10: But they include is completely cease firing, not just lowering

769
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 10: violence in Lebanon. Probably is real out of Lebanon. Number two,

770
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:54,760
Speaker 10: This means of the fees will come back in sixty days.

771
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 10: But before we just got on the New York Times,

772
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 10: it's reporting that Oman is putting four a piece of

773
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 10: fee structure.

774
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:02,319
Speaker 7: I don't I.

775
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:03,640
Speaker 10: Didn't have a chance to even read it, so I

776
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 10: don't know if the full structure is there yet. But

777
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 10: what we're talking about with fees is I think what

778
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 10: Iran said from the beginning, it's going to be two

779
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 10: million bucks tanker if they're fifty tankers or so going through,

780
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 10: and that means leaving the strait. That's one hundred million

781
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 10: dollars a day. That is thirty six billion.

782
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 7: Dollars a year.

783
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 10: That's in addition to all the oil revenues that they're

784
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 10: going to get, all the waivers on all the sanctions.

785
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 10: So Iran, what they are doing, this isn't just a

786
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 10: little bit of money.

787
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 7: This is what you.

788
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 10: Would do to become ascendant as the dominant state in

789
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 10: the Persian Gulf. So what this is all about is

790
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 10: not a return to the jcpoa idea. It's not a

791
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 10: business deal where we're paying around fee for service. What

792
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 10: it's about is the balance of power. And that's what

793
00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 10: the three states here don't agree on. Aaran thinks it

794
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:05,480
Speaker 10: should be the ascendance state, the regional hedge of on.

795
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 10: The United States used to be the pre eminent state

796
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 10: in the region. Israel thought it was going to be

797
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 10: the replacement rising power. Well, these three states just simply

798
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 10: don't agree. That's the escalation trap in a nutshell.

799
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 2: I wanted to get your response to some of the

800
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:24,400
Speaker 2: analysis I heard from Professor Meerscheimer that I was just

801
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:27,360
Speaker 2: listening to this morning. He feels very confident there's not

802
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 2: going to be a full return to war and that

803
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 2: Trump will ultimately accept what he describes as a surrender

804
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 2: document simply because he's out of military options. In his telling, Okay,

805
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 2: they tried the air campaign that obviously it didn't work.

806
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:43,240
Speaker 2: They tried the naval campaign with the blockade also didn't work.

807
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 2: They do not want and have no concept of how

808
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 2: they could do the ground invasion or the army approach

809
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:52,480
Speaker 2: in a way that would be more successful. So he

810
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:56,319
Speaker 2: doesn't really have another option other than accepting this what

811
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 2: amounts to a US surrender. I wonder what you think

812
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:00,280
Speaker 2: of that analysis.

813
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 10: Well, first, it's important, I think for your audience to

814
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 10: know that John's office is literally right next door to

815
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 10: mine at the University of Chicago. I'm John's first PhD student.

816
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:12,879
Speaker 10: So I got my PhD in December nineteen eighty eight.

817
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:15,759
Speaker 10: Two of us went through Mike Deshbob Pape, so maybe

818
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 10: I'm the second one if it was done alphabetically. But

819
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:21,400
Speaker 10: the bottom line is I've known John since September nineteen

820
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,800
Speaker 10: eighty two. I started as a PhD student the University

821
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:28,319
Speaker 10: of Chicago. He was a first year assistant professor. So

822
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:31,439
Speaker 10: needless to say, John and I know each other really well,

823
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:35,439
Speaker 10: and I highly respect John's views. So I think there's

824
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:37,919
Speaker 10: a couple things to say, Well, this is what it means.

825
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:40,320
Speaker 10: What does it mean to return to a full resumption

826
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 10: of the war. Well, Iran is not looking for a

827
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 10: full resumption of the war. It wants to keep the

828
00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 10: oil flow under its control and it only needs to

829
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 10: use small amounts of force in order to make that happen.

830
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:58,719
Speaker 10: For Trump to go back to a full bombing campaign,

831
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 10: there's a real op problem. I just posted before I

832
00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 10: came on on my escalation trap substack, which is Saudy

833
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:08,879
Speaker 10: air space. You see right now there's something like eight

834
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 10: thousand Pakistani troops and jet fighters also a squadron in

835
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 10: Pakistan and they've been there for over a month according

836
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 10: to Reuters and others. And what that means that corresponds

837
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,440
Speaker 10: to when Trump wanted to do that. It is remember

838
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 10: he wanted to have a certain operation Operation Freedom. It

839
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:30,239
Speaker 10: got shut down because Saudi Arabia. Well, this is Saudi airspace,

840
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 10: so there's going to be a real operational limit on

841
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:37,120
Speaker 10: just what President Trump can do to go back to

842
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 10: this resumption of the bombing in March. So I think

843
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:45,080
Speaker 10: that in many ways John is right. But what I

844
00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 10: would just point out here is that doesn't mean the

845
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 10: oil We're not going off a cliff. I mean, the

846
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 10: big issue here is the oil inventories are running down.

847
00:40:56,040 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 10: I've been worrying about this for months. They're running down,

848
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,960
Speaker 10: and that is still ticking away. It has not changed.

849
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 10: That means come August first, man, we're on fumes here

850
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 10: on the international economy with energy and so this is

851
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:13,240
Speaker 10: hurricane seasons come. A lot of things are coming here

852
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 10: that could be quite rocky, and this is essentially Aron's leverage.

853
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 10: Now by January they may let up on the throttle

854
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 10: a little bit, kind of set this tone for the

855
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 10: next administration to come. But between now and January, this

856
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 10: could be a very rocky time with the world's economy.

857
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:34,880
Speaker 4: Well, let's get to the Lebanon element of this. We

858
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 4: can put our next element up on the screen. This

859
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:40,840
Speaker 4: is reporting from drop site based on or a post

860
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,240
Speaker 4: on X based from drop site based on the reporting

861
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 4: of Courtney. But no, this is going to be be

862
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 4: two drop site says Israel continued its military attacks across

863
00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:51,520
Speaker 4: Sunn Lebanon on Monday, despite a renewed ceasefire on not

864
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:54,920
Speaker 4: Sun June twentieth, and then a framework agreed agreement reached

865
00:41:55,040 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 4: on Friday looking at artillery shelling in the outskirts of

866
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:05,120
Speaker 4: a village that's about fifteen miles north of the Israeli border. So,

867
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 4: Professor Pape, this is for the Trump administration emerging as

868
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:13,080
Speaker 4: a challenge almost as monumental as the one with the

869
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:16,160
Speaker 4: Strait of Hormuz. Where do you make of the progress

870
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 4: or lack thereof when it comes to the US being

871
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 4: able to secure this part of a quote unquote ceasefire

872
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:25,320
Speaker 4: agreement that would actually be lasting.

873
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:28,799
Speaker 10: Yeah, So what I see is this is the Trump administration,

874
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 10: or at least part of it, with Secretary Rubio trying

875
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 10: to undermine the whole idea of the Article one of

876
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:39,360
Speaker 10: the MoU It's the equivalent of a congressional killer amendment.

877
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 10: They're called you have an amendment which would undo the

878
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 10: entire bill because what this is doing. And Prime Minister

879
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 10: in det Yahoo gave a big public video presentation over

880
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 10: the weekend on this, and he showed on the map.

881
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 10: What this framework means is Israel stays in southern Lebanon.

882
00:42:56,719 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 10: And he pointed that out and absolutely blunt terms, and

883
00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 10: I'm sure Iran saw that. So this is not a

884
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 10: situation where this is fulfilling article one of the MoU

885
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 10: It's going the other way around now. From President Trump

886
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 10: and Secretary Rubio. They have said, well, this is a

887
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 10: minor thing. Iran will just dismiss it. It's the mind. No,

888
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 10: I disagree. This is part of Iran's sphere of influence

889
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 10: as a rising regional hegemon. They're gonna want a stricture base,

890
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 10: a strategic base. That's Horror Moves, that's that great wealth,

891
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:34,760
Speaker 10: global economic wealth, and then they want a sphere of influence.

892
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:38,880
Speaker 10: This is what powers regional hegemon's want. Russia wants it,

893
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 10: China wants that, we want, America want. Iran's gonna want.

894
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:45,840
Speaker 10: That is where Lebanon comes in. And Lebanon is important

895
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:49,600
Speaker 10: not just for ideological reasons, but recall many of people

896
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:54,400
Speaker 10: are talking about pipelines going through Syria to bypass Horror Moves.

897
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:58,719
Speaker 10: Lebanon is the perfect aircraft carrier. You've got Hezwa is

898
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 10: the perfect troops. There are already drones. They're too basically

899
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:06,279
Speaker 10: enforce fees going out through the med if they need to,

900
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 10: if those Syrian pipelines occur. So balance of power framework

901
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 10: here helps to explain not just generalities, but a lot

902
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 10: of the details of what is going on, what Iran wants,

903
00:44:20,239 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 10: why they want it, why we want to undermine it.

904
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:27,040
Speaker 10: And that's what I mean by the disagreement. This war

905
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:31,600
Speaker 10: can't end until all three sides, the United States, Iran,

906
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:36,320
Speaker 10: and Israel, all three sides agree on the new balance

907
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:38,319
Speaker 10: of power. That's how wars end.

908
00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:41,839
Speaker 2: You've been telling us since the beginning that we should

909
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 2: pay more attention to things that are actually happening versus

910
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 2: words that are being said by the various actors involved.

911
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:51,400
Speaker 2: And in that spirit, let's put before up on the screen.

912
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 2: There's an increasing amount of publicly available data here. We're

913
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:58,440
Speaker 2: talking about satellite imagery confirming the US is continuing a

914
00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 2: military build up in the person. Golf twenty new refueling

915
00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:04,839
Speaker 2: aircraft's been spotted at an airbase in Guitar Syncom says

916
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 2: it has at least fifty thousand soldiers in the region

917
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:10,440
Speaker 2: that are ready for action. What do you read into

918
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 2: these dynamics.

919
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:15,920
Speaker 10: What I think is this confirms what I've been telling

920
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:20,440
Speaker 10: you and forecasting. And also I really appreciate using the

921
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:23,400
Speaker 10: right metrics here because people just want to keep you

922
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:26,920
Speaker 10: focusing on every post on truth social as if this

923
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:30,440
Speaker 10: is somehow the reality. Some are some aren' it's but

924
00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:33,480
Speaker 10: this is the reality. And by the way, notice that

925
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:36,960
Speaker 10: other folks, we're hoping, as you know recently as a

926
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:40,120
Speaker 10: week ago, that we're pulling troops out of the region,

927
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 10: when that's not the reality. That this is the reality

928
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:47,480
Speaker 10: that you see. And I think also Speaker Johnson this morning,

929
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 10: he's floating the idea that Congress will give Trump another

930
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:58,840
Speaker 10: sixty day window for more operations. We can conduct operations

931
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:02,520
Speaker 10: from the sea with our carriers for a long period

932
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 10: of time. We have Jordan, we have some other bases here.

933
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 10: This is if the idea that this is not gonna

934
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:14,360
Speaker 10: there certainly will never be a return to some serious

935
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:19,360
Speaker 10: operations is just too much. I would still say President

936
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:22,960
Speaker 10: Trump doesn't want to. But remember President Trump thought this

937
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:24,839
Speaker 10: was going to be over in three days. He didn't

938
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 10: want to get to We're starting month five of the

939
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:32,320
Speaker 10: escalation trap. This is month five of the escalation trap.

940
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 10: Not day five, not a window. This is where we are.

941
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 7: And JD.

942
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 10: Vance told us this was never going to happen. President

943
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:42,239
Speaker 10: Trump told us this was never going to happen. The

944
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 10: problem is they don't have the control. They just don't

945
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:45,400
Speaker 10: have the control.

946
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:47,640
Speaker 4: And Professor Pipple, one thing we've seen just in the

947
00:46:47,719 --> 00:46:49,759
Speaker 4: last couple of weeks. I'm just thinking about this now

948
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:52,439
Speaker 4: as we're talking, is some of your critics the most

949
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:56,600
Speaker 4: ardent pro Israel folks out there. I'm curious if you

950
00:46:56,600 --> 00:46:58,800
Speaker 4: think they kind of proved your point about the escalation

951
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 4: trap over the last couple of weeks.

952
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:03,600
Speaker 1: By saying this MoU is garbage.

953
00:47:03,680 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 4: Trump needs to escalate in order to get a better deal. Now,

954
00:47:08,120 --> 00:47:10,720
Speaker 4: sometimes they were saying that explicitly, other times they were saying,

955
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 4: it's it's a total straw man to suggest this would

956
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 4: necessarily involve three thousand ground troops and more deads of

957
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:23,879
Speaker 4: American service members and more time spent actually prosecuting the war.

958
00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:26,319
Speaker 4: But it's hard to get around that would have been

959
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 4: the inevitable consequence of this. So just even as we're talking,

960
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:31,319
Speaker 4: this occurred to me that some of your critics were

961
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:34,319
Speaker 4: calling to escalate as soon as the MoU came out,

962
00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 4: which may have been perhaps amusing you.

963
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:40,759
Speaker 10: It is irony of irony that there is the overlap,

964
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 10: as you're pointing out, and I appreciate you telling me

965
00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 10: about them. Because there's so much I'm doing and writing.

966
00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:50,840
Speaker 10: I don't read the comments about maybe I should be

967
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:53,279
Speaker 10: reading the comment My wife tells me I should be

968
00:47:53,320 --> 00:47:56,239
Speaker 10: reading the comments. So the way I get the comments

969
00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:59,399
Speaker 10: is when I talk to you folks, will you read

970
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:00,320
Speaker 10: the comments.

971
00:48:03,600 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 7: That?

972
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:05,839
Speaker 10: And I just want to point out though that this

973
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:08,960
Speaker 10: is this is a very tricky middle game. In this

974
00:48:09,080 --> 00:48:12,160
Speaker 10: middle game, people want it to be over by a date.

975
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 10: You know, we got a midterm coming, We've got the

976
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:18,200
Speaker 10: NFL season coming. Man, We're busy. The problem is that

977
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 10: this could go on. And I just want to point

978
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:24,040
Speaker 10: out over the weekend, the Fire's news service, the IRGC

979
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:29,360
Speaker 10: most started talking about going nuclear, actually having nuclear weapons.

980
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:32,000
Speaker 10: I've been warning about this. That's saying it's going to

981
00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:34,279
Speaker 10: happen next month, but over the next year or so,

982
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 10: Iran is very much going to want to have nuclear weapons.

983
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 10: That's part of becoming that regional hedgehmon, that secure power.

984
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:45,680
Speaker 10: This is going to be very difficult for President Trump

985
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 10: to just let stand. Maybe he can let it stand.

986
00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:52,320
Speaker 10: But if Iran were to literally test a nuclear weapon,

987
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:55,240
Speaker 10: whether it's in the fall or where year from the fall,

988
00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:58,799
Speaker 10: that would pretty much end President Trump's legacy. He would

989
00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:03,360
Speaker 10: then become the Lyndon Johnson. So it's either Hoover or Johnson.

990
00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:06,080
Speaker 10: These are the problems for President Trump, and I'm just

991
00:49:06,160 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 10: pointing out these are the things that are not really

992
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 10: being solved diplomatically. None of them are being solved diplomatically

993
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:17,800
Speaker 10: because diplomacy can't do fix what's wrong with the balance

994
00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 10: of power. The sides have to agree, they have to

995
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:24,360
Speaker 10: agree on the new balance of power, and.

996
00:49:24,360 --> 00:49:28,759
Speaker 2: The Iranian, the more hardliners within the Iranian government feel

997
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:30,960
Speaker 2: that the US has not suffered enough pain yet to

998
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:34,279
Speaker 2: accept that new balance of power. Is that effectively your

999
00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:37,200
Speaker 2: assessment as well, that you know, whether through a nuclear

1000
00:49:37,280 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 2: test or whether through creating more economic pain, that's what

1001
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:40,359
Speaker 2: it will take.

1002
00:49:40,719 --> 00:49:42,560
Speaker 10: That's right. This is what I said back in March

1003
00:49:42,600 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 10: when we first started to say, which is they're playing

1004
00:49:45,120 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 10: a long game. And what a long game means is

1005
00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:50,360
Speaker 10: just like with the North Vietnamese, they want to go

1006
00:49:50,400 --> 00:49:53,840
Speaker 10: at the soft underbelly of the United States. In long war,

1007
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:57,759
Speaker 10: which is those costs mount up, and for many Americans

1008
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:00,279
Speaker 10: they don't see a vital interest. It's not just it's

1009
00:50:00,280 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 10: not so much Americans are too soft, it's they don't

1010
00:50:04,280 --> 00:50:07,919
Speaker 10: If there was an Iranian army in Mexico, I think

1011
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:10,920
Speaker 10: this would be a different story. But the fundamental problem

1012
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 10: here is if you just read any of the opinion

1013
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:15,640
Speaker 10: polls or all the people I talk to. When I

1014
00:50:15,680 --> 00:50:18,880
Speaker 10: talked to quite a few, they don't see the vital

1015
00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:23,160
Speaker 10: interest here for the United States worth paying all these costs.

1016
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 10: Iran certainly sees the vital interest because we have toppled

1017
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 10: their governments before, we have just killed their supreme leader. So,

1018
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 10: my goodness, do they see a vital interest in having

1019
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:38,719
Speaker 10: a nuclear weapon and just simply being a stronger and

1020
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:42,279
Speaker 10: imposing these costs. That's why I'm saying, I really think

1021
00:50:42,320 --> 00:50:45,680
Speaker 10: that between now in January, we're gonna see there's a

1022
00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:48,319
Speaker 10: good chance those costs are going to go up, and

1023
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 10: the point of the cost is not just to make

1024
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:53,759
Speaker 10: America hurt. The point of the costs will be to

1025
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:58,680
Speaker 10: get America to truly leave the region. Apparently we've already

1026
00:50:58,680 --> 00:51:01,960
Speaker 10: moved our Chaok, I understand, and that's a command center

1027
00:51:02,080 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 10: from Cutter, our air base and Cutter over to the

1028
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:11,319
Speaker 10: States here. I think what Iran really wants here is

1029
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:15,720
Speaker 10: America to truly leave the region, and not just President

1030
00:51:15,760 --> 00:51:17,719
Speaker 10: Trump to say he's doing that for a week or

1031
00:51:17,719 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 10: two or a month or two. They want this to

1032
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:24,000
Speaker 10: happen in a substantial way, and that means basically, the

1033
00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:26,120
Speaker 10: American public has to be on board with that.

1034
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 2: Fascinating, very dicey times we're living through and very grateful

1035
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 2: to have your analysis to help us understand what's going on. Everybody,

1036
00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:37,240
Speaker 2: go subscribe to the Escalation Trap on substack and Professor

1037
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:38,919
Speaker 2: Pape hopefully we'll see you back here next week.

1038
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 10: Absolutely absolutely right there.

1039
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 2: With you, all right, and tell professor Mehrsheim where we

1040
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:44,719
Speaker 2: said hi when you see him?

1041
00:51:44,800 --> 00:51:46,359
Speaker 7: Oh yes, yes, yes.

1042
00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 4: Indictments handed down in an NBA gambling case.

1043
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:56,040
Speaker 1: We can put the first element up on the screen.

1044
00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:59,760
Speaker 4: I'm reading here from ESPN headline X NBA players Milike Beasley,

1045
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:03,680
Speaker 4: Davis indicted in gambling case. Former NBA players now like

1046
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:06,760
Speaker 4: Beasley and Ed Davis, and an NBA agent the story

1047
00:52:06,840 --> 00:52:10,360
Speaker 4: rights are amongst six defendants indicted Monday on charges related

1048
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:14,279
Speaker 4: to an alleged sports gambling scheme that targeted at least

1049
00:52:14,280 --> 00:52:16,440
Speaker 4: four games during the twenty twenty three to twenty twenty

1050
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:19,400
Speaker 4: four season. That is according to the federal indictment that

1051
00:52:19,600 --> 00:52:22,239
Speaker 4: was again released yesterday just in the last twenty four

1052
00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:26,480
Speaker 4: hours here, Davis and co defendants Rob Guardetski, Arnesto Placentia,

1053
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 4: and William Brown were arrested Monday. According to a spokesperson

1054
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:32,600
Speaker 4: for the US Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of

1055
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:36,480
Speaker 4: New York, ESPN rights Beasley indefendant paolo's Amorano, who was

1056
00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:41,200
Speaker 4: Davis's agent, were not in custody as of Monday morning,

1057
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:44,719
Speaker 4: but Beasley's attorney is saying they've coordinated with the US

1058
00:52:44,760 --> 00:52:49,520
Speaker 4: Attorney's office for a voluntary surrender later this week now.

1059
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 4: According to the indictment, ESPN reports, Beasley lost millions of

1060
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 4: dollars gambling during his nine year NBA career. He agreed

1061
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:58,759
Speaker 4: to manipulate his stats ahead of at least four games

1062
00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 4: during the twenty three to twenty four season while he

1063
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:04,480
Speaker 4: was with my team, the Milwaukee Bucks. The code conspirators

1064
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:08,600
Speaker 4: could wager on the stats. According to the indictment, These wagers,

1065
00:53:08,640 --> 00:53:13,000
Speaker 4: including according to this indictment, were like seventy five thousand

1066
00:53:13,040 --> 00:53:15,320
Speaker 4: dollars net winnings of at least one hundred and twenty

1067
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:19,480
Speaker 4: one thousand dollars. He, according to the indictment, received bribes

1068
00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:21,000
Speaker 4: from co conspirators.

1069
00:53:21,040 --> 00:53:23,200
Speaker 1: I mean this is really brutal stuff, Crystal. Yeah, just

1070
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:23,719
Speaker 1: going to the news.

1071
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:24,399
Speaker 5: It's very dark.

1072
00:53:24,520 --> 00:53:27,080
Speaker 2: I mean it seems like he, you know, got himself

1073
00:53:27,120 --> 00:53:30,759
Speaker 2: into trouble gambling, probably has a gambling addiction himself. Yep,

1074
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:35,279
Speaker 2: he's deep in the hole. His his teammate Davis, was

1075
00:53:35,480 --> 00:53:38,760
Speaker 2: considered to be the quote unquote gatekeeper in the scheme.

1076
00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:41,879
Speaker 2: And I mean, look, they deserve their day in court,

1077
00:53:42,080 --> 00:53:44,040
Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera, but it looks like they got

1078
00:53:44,120 --> 00:53:46,480
Speaker 2: him dead to rights because they have text messages between

1079
00:53:46,520 --> 00:53:49,640
Speaker 2: them which are pretty damning. Davis text at Beasley at

1080
00:53:49,640 --> 00:53:52,280
Speaker 2: one point, only way you can beat Vegas is sports betting.

1081
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:55,240
Speaker 2: We can make some good money. A month later, Beasley

1082
00:53:55,280 --> 00:53:59,000
Speaker 2: informed Davis he intended to underperform on rebounding in a

1083
00:53:59,239 --> 00:54:01,960
Speaker 2: January twenty six game between the Bucks and the Cavaliers.

1084
00:54:02,080 --> 00:54:04,279
Speaker 2: According to the indictment, quote the defendants and their co

1085
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 2: conspirators placed numerous fraudulent wagers totally tens of thousands of

1086
00:54:07,680 --> 00:54:12,200
Speaker 2: dollars conditioned on defendant Malik Beasley's under rebounds prop bets.

1087
00:54:12,560 --> 00:54:15,720
Speaker 2: Beasley finished with three bat rebounds. Guess what the batting

1088
00:54:15,760 --> 00:54:20,799
Speaker 2: line was? Three point five rebounds. Other examples of this

1089
00:54:20,920 --> 00:54:24,640
Speaker 2: include a scheme that targeted February twenty seventh game between

1090
00:54:24,640 --> 00:54:27,080
Speaker 2: the Bucks and the Charlotte Hornets, a March tenth game

1091
00:54:27,120 --> 00:54:29,439
Speaker 2: between the Bucks and the Clippers, March twenty first game

1092
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:32,840
Speaker 2: between the Bucks and Brooklyn Nets. As alleged Malik Beasley

1093
00:54:32,840 --> 00:54:35,600
Speaker 2: allowed himself to be bought and altered his game time performance.

1094
00:54:35,600 --> 00:54:38,640
Speaker 2: Two line pockets of Ed Davis and his three other

1095
00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:40,400
Speaker 2: his other co conspirators.

1096
00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:44,799
Speaker 5: So it looks pretty bad. We can put C two here.

1097
00:54:45,000 --> 00:54:48,040
Speaker 2: There's a video that has been floating around on on

1098
00:54:48,080 --> 00:54:52,719
Speaker 2: Twitter that looks very much like suspicious gameplay where the

1099
00:54:52,760 --> 00:54:56,839
Speaker 2: game is over, there's literally five seconds left on the

1100
00:54:56,880 --> 00:55:01,520
Speaker 2: clock and he you know that, inbounds the ball they're

1101
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:04,319
Speaker 2: down nine points and races to the under the other

1102
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:06,520
Speaker 2: end of the court to dunk the ball and score

1103
00:55:06,560 --> 00:55:09,839
Speaker 2: two more points in the final like zero point one

1104
00:55:10,000 --> 00:55:11,799
Speaker 2: second of the game. Why would you do that when

1105
00:55:11,840 --> 00:55:15,000
Speaker 2: the game is already over, well, he cut the lead

1106
00:55:15,040 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 2: from nine to seven and the spread was eight point five.

1107
00:55:18,239 --> 00:55:18,319
Speaker 10: Ye.

1108
00:55:18,600 --> 00:55:21,200
Speaker 2: So this is the sort of thing that you know,

1109
00:55:21,440 --> 00:55:24,480
Speaker 2: it appears he was engaged in. And you just look

1110
00:55:24,520 --> 00:55:27,080
Speaker 2: at these indictments and other ones that came before, and

1111
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:30,439
Speaker 2: it is, you know, there's there's a big problem here.

1112
00:55:30,680 --> 00:55:32,360
Speaker 2: There's a big problem here. There's a big problem in

1113
00:55:32,440 --> 00:55:35,560
Speaker 2: terms of college sports betting as well. It really degrades

1114
00:55:35,600 --> 00:55:37,200
Speaker 2: the game, and a lot of it does have to

1115
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:39,480
Speaker 2: do with these prop bets because it's one thing, it's

1116
00:55:39,560 --> 00:55:42,319
Speaker 2: much more difficult to throw an entire game, but like

1117
00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:44,719
Speaker 2: to grab an extra rebound, or to not grab an

1118
00:55:44,760 --> 00:55:47,480
Speaker 2: extra rebound, or to you know, fake an injury and

1119
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:50,120
Speaker 2: reduce your playing minutes in a way that you know

1120
00:55:50,280 --> 00:55:51,120
Speaker 2: people can bet on.

1121
00:55:51,200 --> 00:55:53,280
Speaker 5: Like, those sorts of things are very.

1122
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:56,719
Speaker 2: Easily easily manipulated and gamed, and that appears to have

1123
00:55:56,719 --> 00:55:57,520
Speaker 2: been what's going on here.

1124
00:55:57,600 --> 00:55:59,400
Speaker 4: So let's go back to some of the text messages

1125
00:55:59,440 --> 00:56:02,279
Speaker 4: in the indict meant just to point out Crystal's point.

1126
00:56:02,360 --> 00:56:04,560
Speaker 4: You know, obviously everybody deserves their day in court, but

1127
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:08,040
Speaker 4: what they have on Davis and Beasley here literally Davis

1128
00:56:08,080 --> 00:56:11,240
Speaker 4: saying only way you can beat Vegas is sports, betting

1129
00:56:11,280 --> 00:56:14,479
Speaker 4: everything else. They got the edge. At one point, Beasley says,

1130
00:56:14,520 --> 00:56:16,359
Speaker 4: trying to find like two K. I'll do my best

1131
00:56:16,360 --> 00:56:18,800
Speaker 4: to pay in full on the first. Davis says, you

1132
00:56:18,880 --> 00:56:22,120
Speaker 4: got snapchat. Beasley says, not really. Why Davis says, talk

1133
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:24,160
Speaker 4: to you about some shit on there, Beasley, you can't

1134
00:56:24,160 --> 00:56:26,480
Speaker 4: do it here. Davis says, better to talk on there.

1135
00:56:26,920 --> 00:56:29,320
Speaker 4: We can make some good money.

1136
00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:32,560
Speaker 2: So this is been talking about an NBA player who

1137
00:56:32,680 --> 00:56:34,680
Speaker 2: is struggling to come up with two thousand because of

1138
00:56:34,719 --> 00:56:37,200
Speaker 2: his two thousand dollars because of his gambling debts, and

1139
00:56:37,239 --> 00:56:39,919
Speaker 2: has continued to struggle financially, got you know, evicted from

1140
00:56:39,920 --> 00:56:42,319
Speaker 2: his apartment that he was living in, et cetera, and

1141
00:56:42,320 --> 00:56:44,640
Speaker 2: now is out of the NBA and now being hit

1142
00:56:44,680 --> 00:56:47,560
Speaker 2: with these charges. I mean, it's just extremely dark. As

1143
00:56:47,560 --> 00:56:49,200
Speaker 2: I said before, it's extremely dark.

1144
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:51,640
Speaker 4: And let's go to C three because this is just

1145
00:56:51,719 --> 00:56:54,600
Speaker 4: speaks to the magnitude of what's happened in recent years.

1146
00:56:54,800 --> 00:56:56,600
Speaker 1: This is from.

1147
00:56:56,560 --> 00:56:58,920
Speaker 4: Somebody on X who points out the total amount wagered

1148
00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:01,040
Speaker 4: on sports in the US Back in twenty eighteen, it

1149
00:57:01,080 --> 00:57:04,439
Speaker 4: was at six point six billion. Twenty nineteen, thirteen point

1150
00:57:04,480 --> 00:57:07,040
Speaker 4: one billion, that's a doubling for what it's worth.

1151
00:57:07,080 --> 00:57:08,960
Speaker 1: Then you get up to twenty one the next.

1152
00:57:08,840 --> 00:57:12,160
Speaker 4: Year, then twenty twenty one it increases from twenty one

1153
00:57:12,160 --> 00:57:14,719
Speaker 4: point five, and twenty twenty to fifty seven point five

1154
00:57:14,800 --> 00:57:19,000
Speaker 4: billion dollars. We get another massive increase by twenty twenty two,

1155
00:57:19,120 --> 00:57:21,600
Speaker 4: ninety three point seven billion. That goes up to one

1156
00:57:21,640 --> 00:57:23,640
Speaker 4: hundred and twenty one billion, in twenty twenty three, one

1157
00:57:23,680 --> 00:57:26,200
Speaker 4: hundred and forty nine billion, in twenty twenty four, and

1158
00:57:26,280 --> 00:57:27,960
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty five the numbers at one.

1159
00:57:28,000 --> 00:57:30,960
Speaker 1: Hundred and sixty five billion dollars.

1160
00:57:31,000 --> 00:57:33,680
Speaker 4: That is what That is what has been unleashed, not

1161
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 4: just in these leagues, but in the entire country in

1162
00:57:36,760 --> 00:57:39,720
Speaker 4: less than ten years. That starting figure, once again was

1163
00:57:39,720 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 4: from twenty eighteen and it was at six point six billion.

1164
00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:46,160
Speaker 4: We are now one hundred and sixty five billion dollars,

1165
00:57:46,560 --> 00:57:50,440
Speaker 4: billion dollars. Let's put CBS up on the screen. This

1166
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:52,600
Speaker 4: is a report they actually did on sixty minutes over

1167
00:57:52,640 --> 00:57:56,400
Speaker 4: the weekend CE four. This is their headline was online

1168
00:57:56,400 --> 00:58:00,000
Speaker 4: prediction market traders make millions betting on US military operation.

1169
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:02,720
Speaker 4: They went through some of the evidence for how that's

1170
00:58:02,720 --> 00:58:06,320
Speaker 4: happening behind the scenes in really damning ways in just

1171
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:11,240
Speaker 4: the last year that we've seen significant significant evidence. Once again,

1172
00:58:11,280 --> 00:58:15,240
Speaker 4: by the way, when you have it at the uppermost levels,

1173
00:58:15,440 --> 00:58:20,680
Speaker 4: which like, do we have clear cut damning evidence and

1174
00:58:20,840 --> 00:58:23,360
Speaker 4: not exactly, but we have enough evidence to say there's

1175
00:58:23,440 --> 00:58:24,959
Speaker 4: something going on.

1176
00:58:25,120 --> 00:58:26,360
Speaker 5: It's starting to look pretty damning.

1177
00:58:26,400 --> 00:58:27,680
Speaker 1: It's starting to look very damning.

1178
00:58:27,720 --> 00:58:30,480
Speaker 4: And I will just say, though you can't say definitively

1179
00:58:30,520 --> 00:58:32,800
Speaker 4: this person did this, then, but you can look at

1180
00:58:32,840 --> 00:58:36,040
Speaker 4: the whales and such in certain trades and say somebody

1181
00:58:36,400 --> 00:58:38,920
Speaker 4: had this. And then we have these soldiers who were

1182
00:58:38,920 --> 00:58:40,720
Speaker 4: talked about in the sixty minutes report.

1183
00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:44,200
Speaker 1: It's like the example for them.

1184
00:58:44,240 --> 00:58:46,760
Speaker 4: Is being set by the absolute tippy top of this,

1185
00:58:47,120 --> 00:58:50,080
Speaker 4: as the same thing goes for NBA players. We're watching

1186
00:58:50,160 --> 00:58:53,280
Speaker 4: the gamification of our entire economy at the presidential level,

1187
00:58:53,440 --> 00:58:55,680
Speaker 4: and these guys are getting caught up in it, and

1188
00:58:55,760 --> 00:58:57,120
Speaker 4: it's dark to your point.

1189
00:58:57,000 --> 00:59:01,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, they indicted one dude who apparently had inside

1190
00:59:01,120 --> 00:59:04,240
Speaker 2: knowledge of the Venezuela operation and bet on it. And

1191
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:06,400
Speaker 2: I think it was, like, you know, it was not

1192
00:59:06,560 --> 00:59:08,200
Speaker 2: a small amount of money. It was in the tens

1193
00:59:08,240 --> 00:59:12,480
Speaker 2: of thousands of dollars. But what CBS found and spoke

1194
00:59:12,520 --> 00:59:14,840
Speaker 2: with analysts who've been tracking this stuff. They say, we

1195
00:59:14,880 --> 00:59:18,360
Speaker 2: spotted nine polymarket accounts, all connected, who made collectively two

1196
00:59:18,400 --> 00:59:25,360
Speaker 2: point four million dollars betting almost exclusively on US military operations.

1197
00:59:26,440 --> 00:59:29,520
Speaker 2: The gentleman I was just discussing who has been indicted.

1198
00:59:29,560 --> 00:59:31,439
Speaker 2: He made four hundred thousand dollars more than I said,

1199
00:59:31,440 --> 00:59:33,640
Speaker 2: four in thousand, A lot of money. But on the

1200
00:59:33,680 --> 00:59:35,680
Speaker 2: other side, we have two point four millions. So he's

1201
00:59:35,720 --> 00:59:38,120
Speaker 2: really a small fish when you look at the bigger

1202
00:59:38,160 --> 00:59:42,840
Speaker 2: picture and their win rate for betting on these military

1203
00:59:42,960 --> 00:59:48,160
Speaker 2: US military operations ninety eight percent. Do you think that's

1204
00:59:48,240 --> 00:59:49,800
Speaker 2: just they're just really that lucky.

1205
00:59:49,880 --> 00:59:50,520
Speaker 5: No, of course not.

1206
00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:55,080
Speaker 2: I mean it's it's statistically virtually impossible to have gotten

1207
00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:58,280
Speaker 2: it correct ninety eight percent of the time, especially when

1208
00:59:58,360 --> 00:59:59,960
Speaker 2: the bets that they're making. I mean, these are highly

1209
01:00:00,160 --> 01:00:02,600
Speaker 2: esoteric things that you would have to be in the know.

1210
01:00:03,200 --> 01:00:05,560
Speaker 2: And so then you talk about, okay, well, what's damning

1211
01:00:05,600 --> 01:00:09,760
Speaker 2: about the tippy top of the US federal government, and

1212
01:00:09,960 --> 01:00:12,720
Speaker 2: you know, connecting them to this, Well, if it wasn't them,

1213
01:00:12,960 --> 01:00:17,000
Speaker 2: wouldn't they be investigating this? Wouldn't they also be investigating

1214
01:00:17,160 --> 01:00:20,360
Speaker 2: There was one whale who has made millions off of

1215
01:00:20,560 --> 01:00:23,000
Speaker 2: you know, we're talking here about polymarket and these sorts

1216
01:00:23,000 --> 01:00:26,800
Speaker 2: of things, but off of traditional insider trading on oil

1217
01:00:27,240 --> 01:00:31,760
Speaker 2: futures and commodities, and that person. If the government wanted

1218
01:00:31,800 --> 01:00:34,080
Speaker 2: to know who they are, the government could know who

1219
01:00:34,080 --> 01:00:36,320
Speaker 2: they are. And perhaps the government does know who they are.

1220
01:00:36,560 --> 01:00:40,120
Speaker 2: Are they being prosecuted, No, they are not. So you know,

1221
01:00:40,200 --> 01:00:44,320
Speaker 2: this connects to the discussion we are having with Professor

1222
01:00:44,360 --> 01:00:47,600
Speaker 2: Pape about the Iran War, the rhythm and flow of this.

1223
01:00:47,760 --> 01:00:49,920
Speaker 2: This is just a joke at this point. You know,

1224
01:00:49,960 --> 01:00:52,919
Speaker 2: it's all market manipulation. It's all time for Okay, we're

1225
01:00:52,920 --> 01:00:55,160
Speaker 2: gonna we're going to bomb them over the weekend when

1226
01:00:55,160 --> 01:00:56,080
Speaker 2: the markets are closed.

1227
01:00:56,120 --> 01:00:57,160
Speaker 5: We're going to have some.

1228
01:00:57,040 --> 01:01:00,360
Speaker 2: Sort of a report leaked to Axiosis baroque revine right

1229
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:04,120
Speaker 2: before the market's open, all designed to manipulate the markets.

1230
01:01:04,480 --> 01:01:06,400
Speaker 2: Is it far fatched at all to think that this

1231
01:01:06,520 --> 01:01:09,800
Speaker 2: government the most corrupt government in American history, if not

1232
01:01:09,880 --> 01:01:13,080
Speaker 2: in world history, by the numbers that they would be,

1233
01:01:13,240 --> 01:01:15,720
Speaker 2: you know, cashing in on in these different ways. No,

1234
01:01:15,840 --> 01:01:18,560
Speaker 2: of course that's not hard to imagine. So again, if

1235
01:01:18,600 --> 01:01:23,640
Speaker 2: they wanted to prosecute this type of disgusting insider trading.

1236
01:01:23,960 --> 01:01:26,880
Speaker 2: They could easily do it and have plenty of information

1237
01:01:27,040 --> 01:01:29,040
Speaker 2: to be able to make the case and send a

1238
01:01:29,080 --> 01:01:31,000
Speaker 2: warning sign to the rest of the public and the

1239
01:01:31,120 --> 01:01:33,400
Speaker 2: you know, various military operators and other people in the

1240
01:01:33,720 --> 01:01:36,080
Speaker 2: know that this is not going to be tolerated.

1241
01:01:36,360 --> 01:01:37,080
Speaker 5: They're not doing that.

1242
01:01:37,920 --> 01:01:41,320
Speaker 4: So let's this is an expert telling CNN. This is

1243
01:01:41,400 --> 01:01:43,959
Speaker 4: Victor Matheson's and economics professor at the College of Holy

1244
01:01:44,040 --> 01:01:46,360
Speaker 4: Cross and an expert in the business of sports and gambling,

1245
01:01:46,360 --> 01:01:49,200
Speaker 4: a CNN put a recent article. In this recent article,

1246
01:01:49,320 --> 01:01:54,560
Speaker 4: Matheson said that these sponsorship deals between some of these

1247
01:01:55,080 --> 01:01:58,040
Speaker 4: sports books and some of the leagues are probably more

1248
01:01:58,080 --> 01:02:00,000
Speaker 4: than a billion dollars annually. Worth more than a billion

1249
01:02:00,080 --> 01:02:01,960
Speaker 4: dollars annually, I would say that might even be a

1250
01:02:01,960 --> 01:02:05,240
Speaker 4: conservative estimate, but they've become again just since that twenty

1251
01:02:05,240 --> 01:02:08,520
Speaker 4: eighteen Supreme Court ruling. When we were reading earlier, it

1252
01:02:08,560 --> 01:02:11,520
Speaker 4: was like six billion, six point six billion dollars a

1253
01:02:11,600 --> 01:02:14,480
Speaker 4: year on sports wagers. We're now at over one hundred

1254
01:02:14,480 --> 01:02:17,480
Speaker 4: and sixty billion a year. So just since twenty eighteen,

1255
01:02:17,800 --> 01:02:20,560
Speaker 4: this has become a really crucial part of the industry

1256
01:02:20,640 --> 01:02:24,080
Speaker 4: and it is now completely woven into the fabric of

1257
01:02:24,400 --> 01:02:28,400
Speaker 4: their bottom line. So good luck extricating this now from

1258
01:02:28,440 --> 01:02:32,360
Speaker 4: these leagues, because they're incentive to keep these partnerships and

1259
01:02:32,400 --> 01:02:35,160
Speaker 4: to keep people addicted and hooked. I mean, here's from

1260
01:02:35,440 --> 01:02:38,840
Speaker 4: I'm reading from the Harvard Gazette. Now they say that

1261
01:02:39,720 --> 01:02:42,880
Speaker 4: twenty three percent. There's a twenty three percent NASH increase

1262
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:46,000
Speaker 4: since the twenty eighteen court ruling in Internet searchers for

1263
01:02:46,040 --> 01:02:50,560
Speaker 4: gambling addiction help. They here's an expert who says, when

1264
01:02:50,560 --> 01:02:52,880
Speaker 4: new forms of gambling appear, the rate of savings go down.

1265
01:02:52,920 --> 01:02:55,000
Speaker 4: Then you see the rate of credit card defaults going up,

1266
01:02:55,000 --> 01:02:57,040
Speaker 4: and you see the rate of mortgage defaults going up.

1267
01:02:57,120 --> 01:02:59,600
Speaker 4: So these are long term financial and societal costs with

1268
01:02:59,720 --> 01:03:03,480
Speaker 4: broad implications. So think about that. Think about the incentive

1269
01:03:03,520 --> 01:03:06,200
Speaker 4: now with these sports leagues, who by the way, have

1270
01:03:06,480 --> 01:03:08,880
Speaker 4: lobbyists here in DC as well, of course, or the

1271
01:03:08,920 --> 01:03:11,120
Speaker 4: sports books certainly have lobbyists here in DC, of course,

1272
01:03:11,440 --> 01:03:18,200
Speaker 4: to keep this going at the cost of addiction and suffering.

1273
01:03:18,280 --> 01:03:20,760
Speaker 4: I mean, it says, it ruins marriages, it can lead

1274
01:03:20,800 --> 01:03:25,960
Speaker 4: to physical abuse. It's a horrible, horrible scourge on the

1275
01:03:26,000 --> 01:03:29,040
Speaker 4: moral fabric of the society. And now our economy is

1276
01:03:29,120 --> 01:03:31,600
Speaker 4: tethered to it in a significant way, and some of

1277
01:03:31,640 --> 01:03:34,320
Speaker 4: these past like American pastimes, are tethered to it in

1278
01:03:34,320 --> 01:03:38,560
Speaker 4: a significant way and have this ugly incentive baked into them.

1279
01:03:38,680 --> 01:03:42,520
Speaker 2: Well, here's the reality, Like insider trading is basically the

1280
01:03:42,560 --> 01:03:47,560
Speaker 2: American dream. Now you know, they've decimated the industrial workforce,

1281
01:03:48,120 --> 01:03:51,800
Speaker 2: and now they're promising with AI to decimate.

1282
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:53,040
Speaker 5: The white collar workforce.

1283
01:03:53,520 --> 01:03:56,680
Speaker 2: Costs are so expensive and ever skyrocketing that even if

1284
01:03:56,720 --> 01:03:59,760
Speaker 2: you have a decent job, it becomes increasingly different, difficult

1285
01:03:59,800 --> 01:04:03,680
Speaker 2: to buy a home, get a good education, have health care.

1286
01:04:04,160 --> 01:04:06,520
Speaker 2: And so what do they offer. They offer you basically

1287
01:04:06,560 --> 01:04:09,200
Speaker 2: a lotter ticket. That's the dream that's being sold. And

1288
01:04:09,240 --> 01:04:11,920
Speaker 2: so when you look at that landscape, it's no surprise

1289
01:04:12,240 --> 01:04:14,840
Speaker 2: surprise that you see those numbers going up and up

1290
01:04:14,920 --> 01:04:17,960
Speaker 2: and up to one hundred and sixty five billion dollars,

1291
01:04:18,040 --> 01:04:21,400
Speaker 2: which is astonishing. It's also no surprise given the way

1292
01:04:21,480 --> 01:04:24,120
Speaker 2: that traditionally men are seen as like the providers, and

1293
01:04:24,160 --> 01:04:26,000
Speaker 2: this is really a bedrock of what it means to

1294
01:04:26,040 --> 01:04:27,720
Speaker 2: be a man, to be able to earn, to be

1295
01:04:27,760 --> 01:04:30,920
Speaker 2: able to provide. That men would be the most susceptible

1296
01:04:30,920 --> 01:04:33,960
Speaker 2: and young men in particular most susceptible to these gambling

1297
01:04:34,000 --> 01:04:38,000
Speaker 2: addictions and to betting on these websites, not just on sports,

1298
01:04:38,000 --> 01:04:40,040
Speaker 2: but on everything else. I wanted to give a shout

1299
01:04:40,040 --> 01:04:44,120
Speaker 2: out to Killian Embabe, who's the French soccer star I'm

1300
01:04:44,120 --> 01:04:46,200
Speaker 2: starting to after watching so much World Cup coverage. I

1301
01:04:46,200 --> 01:04:49,080
Speaker 2: almost called him a footballer, but we'll keep an American

1302
01:04:49,120 --> 01:04:52,400
Speaker 2: here with two hundred fifty of the anniversary. Anyway, he was

1303
01:04:52,520 --> 01:04:57,320
Speaker 2: very upset about his image being associated with a betting website,

1304
01:04:57,360 --> 01:04:59,200
Speaker 2: and he really objected to that, and he said, the

1305
01:04:59,200 --> 01:05:02,040
Speaker 2: reason why is we has sports betting is destructive. It's

1306
01:05:02,120 --> 01:05:03,640
Speaker 2: ruined the lives of some people.

1307
01:05:03,680 --> 01:05:03,880
Speaker 8: I know.

1308
01:05:03,920 --> 01:05:06,960
Speaker 2: That's why I refuse to appear in sports betting advertisements.

1309
01:05:07,080 --> 01:05:09,160
Speaker 2: Many of us come from the suburbs and it destroys

1310
01:05:09,200 --> 01:05:11,400
Speaker 2: the lives of countless people there.

1311
01:05:11,600 --> 01:05:11,840
Speaker 7: I mean.

1312
01:05:11,840 --> 01:05:14,160
Speaker 5: The fact that that is such a.

1313
01:05:13,840 --> 01:05:18,000
Speaker 2: Remarkable and unique statement that you know, people globally took

1314
01:05:18,120 --> 01:05:19,520
Speaker 2: note of, like, oh my god, I can't believe you

1315
01:05:19,560 --> 01:05:23,000
Speaker 2: said that. That's incredible tells you something about the dire

1316
01:05:23,080 --> 01:05:25,720
Speaker 2: state of affairs here. Where are the other voices from

1317
01:05:25,920 --> 01:05:29,880
Speaker 2: you know, superstar athletes or others in the industry, saying

1318
01:05:29,920 --> 01:05:30,760
Speaker 2: this is unacceptable.

1319
01:05:30,760 --> 01:05:32,160
Speaker 5: I'm not going to take part in this whatsoever.

1320
01:05:32,480 --> 01:05:35,479
Speaker 4: Yeah, and so this is the Ethics and Public Policy Center,

1321
01:05:35,480 --> 01:05:37,440
Speaker 4: which is a very conservative think tank, put out a

1322
01:05:37,440 --> 01:05:39,959
Speaker 4: paper on this just last week, and they're reporting, based

1323
01:05:39,960 --> 01:05:42,280
Speaker 4: on research, ten percent of young men in the US

1324
01:05:42,400 --> 01:05:45,040
Speaker 4: exhibit problem gambling behavior, more than three times the rid

1325
01:05:45,080 --> 01:05:48,320
Speaker 4: of the general population, ten percent of a demographic that

1326
01:05:48,360 --> 01:05:50,760
Speaker 4: was already struggling before we introduced all of this. The

1327
01:05:50,760 --> 01:05:53,000
Speaker 4: percentage of high school students with a gambling problem is

1328
01:05:53,040 --> 01:05:55,520
Speaker 4: double that of adults, and five percent of all young

1329
01:05:55,560 --> 01:05:58,400
Speaker 4: people between the ages of eleven and seventeen meet at

1330
01:05:58,520 --> 01:06:03,200
Speaker 4: least one of the criteria for a gambling problem. These

1331
01:06:03,320 --> 01:06:07,520
Speaker 4: numbers are huge, huge, they say. A study in the

1332
01:06:07,560 --> 01:06:09,960
Speaker 4: UK found that forty nine percent of students reported gambling

1333
01:06:09,960 --> 01:06:13,200
Speaker 4: in the past year, and seventeen percent used their student

1334
01:06:13,440 --> 01:06:17,280
Speaker 4: loan money to gambler to gamble mail. Gamblers in particular,

1335
01:06:17,280 --> 01:06:19,200
Speaker 4: spent an average amount on gambling per week that was

1336
01:06:19,240 --> 01:06:23,000
Speaker 4: nearly equal to their grocery budget. Another study in the

1337
01:06:23,080 --> 01:06:25,480
Speaker 4: US found that households that put money into online sports

1338
01:06:25,520 --> 01:06:29,080
Speaker 4: betting accounts reduced their financial investing by fourteen percent on average,

1339
01:06:29,160 --> 01:06:31,640
Speaker 4: and in states that legalized online gambling. One study found

1340
01:06:31,640 --> 01:06:35,280
Speaker 4: increases in personal bankruptcy rates up to twenty five percent

1341
01:06:35,320 --> 01:06:38,240
Speaker 4: and credit card and auto loan delinquencies of twenty five

1342
01:06:38,240 --> 01:06:42,680
Speaker 4: percent and twenty seven percent, respectively. Finally, the rise in

1343
01:06:42,680 --> 01:06:46,040
Speaker 4: bankruptcy rates translates to roughly thirty thousand more personal.

1344
01:06:45,760 --> 01:06:47,720
Speaker 1: Bankruptcies in the United States every year.

1345
01:06:48,080 --> 01:06:50,760
Speaker 4: And this is again based on something that is really

1346
01:06:50,800 --> 01:06:56,040
Speaker 4: one of the few industries we have left of unification

1347
01:06:56,400 --> 01:06:59,800
Speaker 4: and monoculture to some extent, the ornfl for example, is

1348
01:07:00,240 --> 01:07:01,960
Speaker 4: one of the few things that actually does bring a

1349
01:07:02,000 --> 01:07:04,120
Speaker 4: lot of people together. It's one of the few things

1350
01:07:04,120 --> 01:07:06,720
Speaker 4: that we all kind of still watch as a country together.

1351
01:07:07,200 --> 01:07:12,320
Speaker 4: And this is utterly predatory behavior there now, completely inatricably

1352
01:07:12,320 --> 01:07:18,240
Speaker 4: intertwined with this, and it's causing mass wreckage in the male,

1353
01:07:18,520 --> 01:07:21,120
Speaker 4: young male population in particular, which is not really something

1354
01:07:21,120 --> 01:07:24,320
Speaker 4: that young men can afford to have on their shoulders. Additionally,

1355
01:07:24,560 --> 01:07:28,640
Speaker 4: that's right with student loans already our significant problem for

1356
01:07:28,720 --> 01:07:30,960
Speaker 4: many reasons that we've covered here for years, and add

1357
01:07:30,960 --> 01:07:32,280
Speaker 4: to that gambling addictions.

1358
01:07:32,400 --> 01:07:34,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was looking at that one hundred and sixty

1359
01:07:34,000 --> 01:07:36,360
Speaker 2: five billion dollar number and I'm like, where's that even

1360
01:07:36,360 --> 01:07:38,440
Speaker 2: coming from because at the same time you see credit

1361
01:07:38,480 --> 01:07:41,520
Speaker 2: card debt skyrocketing, you know, the costs are going up

1362
01:07:41,560 --> 01:07:43,680
Speaker 2: and up. You know that wages are not keeping up

1363
01:07:43,680 --> 01:07:46,120
Speaker 2: with inflation, and yet more and more of the budget

1364
01:07:46,160 --> 01:07:49,600
Speaker 2: is going to you know, these fundamentally predatory companies.

1365
01:07:50,120 --> 01:07:52,080
Speaker 5: Very dire situation, so dark.

1366
01:07:52,120 --> 01:07:55,000
Speaker 4: It's so dark, and just a sad statement on where

1367
01:07:55,000 --> 01:07:57,200
Speaker 4: we are, and ties back to our Supreme Court conversation

1368
01:07:57,240 --> 01:08:00,320
Speaker 4: earlier in the show, Crystal about what the conservatives Supreme

1369
01:08:00,360 --> 01:08:05,080
Speaker 4: Court hath wrought. Despite this is an interesting tension the

1370
01:08:05,200 --> 01:08:08,240
Speaker 4: conservative groups for years vetting all of these folks to

1371
01:08:08,280 --> 01:08:12,320
Speaker 4: be friendly to industry. It's the perfect tension between the

1372
01:08:12,360 --> 01:08:15,480
Speaker 4: free market capitalism that the right claims to espouse and

1373
01:08:15,520 --> 01:08:17,679
Speaker 4: then the family values at the right claims to espouse.

1374
01:08:17,680 --> 01:08:20,080
Speaker 4: And this is the product of what's been unleashed over

1375
01:08:20,080 --> 01:08:23,160
Speaker 4: the last eight years. Very good point, all right, Crystal,

1376
01:08:23,240 --> 01:08:25,479
Speaker 4: Let's move on to a new survey about the most

1377
01:08:25,520 --> 01:08:43,680
Speaker 4: popular politicians in America.