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Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.

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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. It is me, Joey p Joe Pye's appia

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Speaker 1: with me as always every Monday morning to play a

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Speaker 1: little quarterback. It's Matthew Friedman. It's Pat Fitzmorris and me

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Speaker 1: Joey p And we're hanging out looking ahead to week

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Speaker 1: six because you know, it's never too early to start

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Speaker 1: thinking about the future, start planning, start going things right.

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Speaker 1: And obviously week five had some surprises for us. I

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Speaker 1: know Pat still does not want to talk about what

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Speaker 1: happened in London. It just stays in London forever. Matthew Friedman,

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Speaker 1: hopefully you had some better luck, I think with your

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Speaker 1: teams and some of your investments. But we're gonna just

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Speaker 1: turn the page right away here and jump into things today,

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Speaker 1: because we have got one hell of a barn burner

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Speaker 1: Thursday night football, the Washington Commanders at one and four

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Speaker 1: versus the Bears at two and three. Friedman, Does it

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Speaker 1: get any better than this?

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Speaker 2: Yes, hopefully it does get better than this. It's a

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Speaker 2: Thursday night game. You know they start they start bad

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Speaker 2: and then they build up from there. This is a

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Speaker 2: weird game. The line is, well, it's kind of moved

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Speaker 2: around a little bit, but you know, consensus is minus

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Speaker 2: one for the Commanders. I think is there really much

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Speaker 2: of a difference between these two teams. I think Chicago

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Speaker 2: should be favored, like pretty significantly favored, not by a

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Speaker 2: field goal, but like they should be the favorite in

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Speaker 2: this game. So it's disgusting. I've already bet on Chicago.

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Speaker 1: Already bet on Chicago. So let me set the stage

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Speaker 1: here because I walked into a good joke, which is

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Speaker 1: again well done Freeman. So we've got the Washington Commanders

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Speaker 1: are one point underdogs going on the road to Chicago.

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Speaker 1: Thirty nine and a half is the number, Pat fitz Morris.

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Speaker 1: I know this sounds like a glorious content for the Ages,

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Speaker 1: but you know, in all honesty, it feels like the

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Speaker 1: only way to watch this game is to have a

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Speaker 1: little action on it. So that being said, is there

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Speaker 1: any early action you'd like to take on this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I'm with Friedman. I like the Bears here.

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Speaker 3: And by the way, this is going to be a

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Speaker 3: really bad game, but it's going to be bad in

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Speaker 3: a different way than last Thursday's game with Denver and

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Speaker 3: the Colts. Like that was the frustrating bad game of

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Speaker 3: two teams we expected to be good and two teams

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Speaker 3: with still competent defenses but bad offenses. So I just

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Speaker 3: turned into this hideous rock fight. I feel at least

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Speaker 3: here the offenses and defenses are sort of balanced in

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Speaker 3: their badness, so they can give us an entertaining game.

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Speaker 3: I don't really understand why Washington opened as a favorite,

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Speaker 3: and now I see on DraftKings this morning, I think

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Speaker 3: it was Bears minus one and a half, but I

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Speaker 3: feel like this should be more Bears by a field goal,

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Speaker 3: and we saw them like this Bears team, maybe they're

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Speaker 3: a little challenged on talent, but they do have sort

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Speaker 3: of a spree to core going with Matt Eberflus, and

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Speaker 3: they rallied yesterday against the Vikings when they dug a

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Speaker 3: big early hole, Like they came back shut down the

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Speaker 3: Vikings offense after being gouged early. Like I think this

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Speaker 3: defense is actually pretty good and pretty credible and is

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Speaker 3: going to give Carson Wentz a hard time, and you know,

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Speaker 3: like it's a very conservative offense. But they did at

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Speaker 3: least minimize mistakes yesterday and get back in that game.

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Speaker 3: So I think the Bears are undervalued in this spot.

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Speaker 1: I'm just googling US three the Corps because that is

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Speaker 1: certainly not something I had on my Bengo card this morning.

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Speaker 1: The Spirit of the Body. For those who are looking

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Speaker 1: for the translation, they're well done, Pat Fitzmorris. And if

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Speaker 1: you're looking for translating some of your bets into cold

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Speaker 1: hard cash, make sure you're heading over to bettingpros dot

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Speaker 1: com placing your wagers there because that's where you get

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Speaker 1: all the best odds, including BETMGM, the sponsor of the show,

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Speaker 1: the King of sportsbooks. Download the bet mgm app today,

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Speaker 1: go ahead and place your wagers again. Bet MGM the

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Speaker 1: spot to be and to make sure you can take

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Speaker 1: advantage of all these early lines we're talking about today,

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about another one here, San Francisco versus Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: The forty nine Ers are six point favorites on the

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Speaker 1: road in Atlanta. Forty two and a half is the

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Speaker 1: number Atlanta down last week with Kyle Pitts not playing

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Speaker 1: down Cordero, Patterson hopets to be a bit more of

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Speaker 1: the same this week here. So Pat is this six

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Speaker 1: a big enough number here in your opinion.

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Speaker 4: It seems about right to me.

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Speaker 3: I'm disinclined to bet the forty nine ers as a

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Speaker 3: six point road dog, and like this hurt Friedman and

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Speaker 3: I this past week reluctance to bet the forty nine

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Speaker 3: ers is a big road dog in Carolina. Atlanta is

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Speaker 3: a better team than Carolina, and you're actually getting an

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Speaker 3: extra half point from what we were getting with Carolina

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Speaker 3: last week.

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Speaker 4: They should have been right in with Tampa until the end.

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Speaker 3: If not for a horrendous Jerome Boger roughing the passer

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Speaker 3: call like that could have been a game.

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Speaker 4: So another team like the Bears, Atlanta is plucky.

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Speaker 3: Like I'm kind of inclined to take the points if

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Speaker 3: I'm going to take a side here, but I do

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Speaker 3: my numbers are kind of right on with the projected

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Speaker 3: My projected line right online with reality here, So I

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Speaker 3: don't know it's either a layoff or Atlanta for me.

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Speaker 1: Friedman, how about you? Are your numbers right here where

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Speaker 1: the line is?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have this at five, but the difference between

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Speaker 2: five and six isn't all that great. If I'm doing anything,

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Speaker 2: I'm waiting to see if this line moves towards San Francisco,

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Speaker 2: and then maybe if it gets to seven, I'm betting

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Speaker 2: it at that point.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the next one. Here,

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Speaker 1: the New England Patriots. We'll go ahead and take on

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Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns on the road. Look, Patriots coming off

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Speaker 1: a shutout here with a third string quarterback and Bill

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Speaker 1: Belichick gets his four hundred win. They're flying high, right.

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Speaker 1: The Pats can't be stopped Cleveland. Let one slip away

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Speaker 1: here in this one. Forty two and a half is

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Speaker 1: the number Cleveland should be favorit in this game. I

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Speaker 1: think we can all agree on that. And basically Vegas

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Speaker 1: is telling you though, it's not a clear cut lock

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Speaker 1: for Cleveland because they're only getting the three at home.

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Speaker 1: So Freeman, do you see anything here in this line

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Speaker 1: that's a little suspicious that you think there's some money

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Speaker 1: to be made potentially?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm on New England in this spot because it

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Speaker 2: only gets better from here, either with Zappi continuing to improve,

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Speaker 2: or maybe we get Mac Jones back. And I don't

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Speaker 2: think the line moves away from New England in this spot.

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Speaker 2: So I already on the look ahead. I betted at

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Speaker 2: plus three and a half shout out me basically doomed

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Speaker 2: my bet. There's three three. Now, I still think that

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Speaker 2: there's some value in the market. And I also like

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Speaker 2: the over over forty two. There's something with this Cleveland

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Speaker 2: defense that is just like it's bad and they're super

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Speaker 2: vulnerable against the run. And so I'll say I had

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Speaker 2: this thesis last week with the Browns game, and it,

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Speaker 2: you know, came to fruition with the over, and it's

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Speaker 2: a similar situation this week. We have two teams that

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Speaker 2: can run the ball really well and two teams that

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Speaker 2: are really bad against the run, and so I think

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Speaker 2: it means that they're going to be really efficient on

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Speaker 2: the drives that they have. And normally you think if

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Speaker 2: teams are running the ball, it plays to the under.

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Speaker 2: But because they're going against run defenses that are so bad,

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Speaker 2: and because like you already take into account that these

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Speaker 2: are run heavy offenses, I think the over forty two

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Speaker 2: forty two is a relatively low number in the spot.

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Speaker 2: I think the numbers should be closer to forty four.

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Speaker 1: All right, Pat, what about New England? On the mind

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Speaker 1: line to a plus one thirty two? Can New England

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Speaker 1: just go on the road and win another game that

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Speaker 1: people might not expect them to be able to pull out.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, if I was going to play this, I maybe

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Speaker 3: play New England on the money line. And I maybe

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Speaker 3: was guilty of underestimating the resilience of the Patriots, even

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Speaker 3: though they are undermanned on offense. Like Friedman is right,

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Speaker 3: they run the ball effectively. Two teams that do run

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Speaker 3: it effectively here, And my inclination was to keep this

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Speaker 3: total low. And you know, I'm sort of right in

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Speaker 3: line with what the actual line is.

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Speaker 4: But Friedman's right, Like, if I'm going.

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Speaker 3: To play this, I think I want to over against

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Speaker 3: these run defenses.

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Speaker 2: And one more thing here, I'm very happy to bet

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Speaker 2: against Kevin Stefanski in this spot. He's eight and sixteen

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Speaker 2: against the spread as a favorite. Like it's not to

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Speaker 2: say like he should never be a favorite, but it's

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Speaker 2: just there are certain coaches. Stefanski's wanted them, Shanahan's wanted them,

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Speaker 2: like coaches where when they are favored, they play a

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Speaker 2: different style of game and that allows them to be

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Speaker 2: vulnerable to the back door cover.

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Speaker 1: Okay, if I told you both that the Jets and

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Speaker 1: Packers would both be three and two, as we looked

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Speaker 1: ahead two week six, I bet you wouldn't think that

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Speaker 1: would be the case, or at least not the Jets

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Speaker 1: would have the same record as the Packers, but they do.

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Speaker 1: The Packers still, though, are seven and a half home

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Speaker 1: favorites in this one in Green Bay. Now, look, it's

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Speaker 1: not the frigid, frozen tundra. Quite yes, it's still October,

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Speaker 1: and the Jets continue to show up and they are

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Speaker 1: far more competitive. I think they can all agree. In

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Speaker 1: the years past, saus Gardner's had a huge effect. That

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Speaker 1: defense help things out quite a bit. They've got Breisee

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Speaker 1: Hall now it looks like a running back. They can

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Speaker 1: really kind of give that workload too. And let's be honest,

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Speaker 1: I mean, there were some moments there on the offensive

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Speaker 1: line again that really just kind of let down what

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers was able to do. Not to mention this

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Speaker 1: clear he misses those weapons. Forty five is the number, Pat,

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Speaker 1: if you like the Jets to just upset completely, it's

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Speaker 1: plus two sixty. I don't know if we want to go

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Speaker 1: that far, but seven and a half, with the way

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Speaker 1: the Packers have played, is this giving the Packers too

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Speaker 1: much respect? In your opinion?

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Speaker 4: It probably is.

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Speaker 3: My projections have a Packers minus eight, but that's like

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Speaker 3: the Packers at home coming off a bad loss, and

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Speaker 3: you know it's it's generally a really good spot for them.

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Speaker 4: But you wonder with them coming.

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Speaker 3: Back from London, like is there sort of a disruption

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Speaker 3: to their normal schedule. Does this kind of throw them

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Speaker 3: off a little bit? And maybe they don't rebound from

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Speaker 3: that other New York loss quite the way you would

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Speaker 3: expect them to. They ran into some serious issues in

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Speaker 3: the second half, Like the Giants were duct taping an

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Speaker 3: offense doing a mcguiver job.

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Speaker 4: They didn't have a sack.

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Speaker 3: On Barkley after he heard his shoulder, And you know,

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Speaker 3: somehow with Matt Brida and Gary Brightwell and Daniel Jones

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Speaker 3: and like a cast of Nobody's a wide receiver, they

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Speaker 3: were moving the ball against this Green Bay defense that

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Speaker 3: I thought was going to be so much better. And

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Speaker 3: as I've been telling Friedman on our Sunday morning live stream,

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Speaker 3: like I've thought the Jets have been valued all undervalued

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Speaker 3: all year, and you know, we're we're seeing like that

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Speaker 3: this is a pretty potent offense. Actually, Like even with

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Speaker 3: Zach Wilson, you know at best in average NFL starter

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Speaker 3: and probably still not even quite too average yet, Like

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Speaker 3: they can move the ball.

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Speaker 4: They have so much talent at the skill.

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Speaker 3: Positions, and the offensive line seems to be coming together.

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Speaker 3: So even though my number says green Bay should be

220
00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:53,400
Speaker 3: favored by half a point more, there's no way I'm

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Speaker 3: touching green Bay here. Not bold enough to take the

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Speaker 3: money line. But if I were going to play this,

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Speaker 3: I would take the points with the Jets.

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Speaker 1: Freeman, the kinder gentler Aaron Rodgers doesn't seem to be

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Speaker 1: equally wins. I don't know what kind of team. Maybe

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Speaker 1: he brought back with him from London. But what are

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Speaker 1: your thoughts on this number? Because this feels awfully dangerous

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Speaker 1: to me, like they've given the Packers a little bit

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Speaker 1: too much credit here.

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Speaker 2: Danger is my middle name, So I will be I

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00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:20,640
Speaker 2: will be taking the Packers here, although I will say

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Speaker 2: like this is this is like the line in the

233
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Speaker 2: sand for me. It's like I've been slow to adjust

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00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:29,559
Speaker 2: my power ratings on them and.

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Speaker 1: I have Jets or the Packers.

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Speaker 2: The Packers, Okay, Packers, I've been slow to adjust because

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Speaker 2: I feel like, you know, they're working their way into

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Speaker 2: it at the beginning of the season, they had players

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Speaker 2: that were injured, so like I felt like, okay, entering London,

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Speaker 2: they're rounding into form, and then that definitely wasn't the case.

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Speaker 2: But maybe we just saw, you know, it's a London

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Speaker 2: game and they played a bad second half, Like weird

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Speaker 2: stuff happens in London. So Aaron Rodgers is the favorite.

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Speaker 2: Crushes Aaron Rodgers at home crushes going against a Jets

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Speaker 2: team that I don't want to say they're fraudulent because

246
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Speaker 2: they're not, because like I have been impressed by the

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Speaker 2: improvement that we have seen on both sides of the

248
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Speaker 2: ball for them, but like, let's not react too strongly

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Speaker 2: to this. They beat the Dolphins, who had a second

250
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Speaker 2: string quarterback for one play and then a rookie third

251
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Speaker 2: stringer for the entire game. They beat the Steelers, who

252
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Speaker 2: had Mitch Trubisky who basically should be a backup and

253
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Speaker 2: then a rookie getting his first NFL action, And they

254
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Speaker 2: beat the Browns in a fluke game in Week two. Like,

255
00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:34,600
Speaker 2: this is a team that very well could be zero

256
00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:38,520
Speaker 2: to five if they were like playing normal circumstances. So

257
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Speaker 2: I don't want to give too much credit to the Jets.

258
00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:43,640
Speaker 2: I will be on the Packers for one more week

259
00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:45,719
Speaker 2: in this spot, but I don't feel great about it.

260
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Speaker 1: You're on borrowed time Green Bay to hear that Lafleur

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Speaker 1: Friedman's got one more. That's it and you're dead to him.

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Speaker 1: Let's get to the next game here, Indianapolis. Cult are

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Speaker 1: going to host their daddies in their stadium here because

264
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Speaker 1: Jacksonville's coming to town. Jacksonville coming off two straight losses.

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Speaker 1: Though they are one and a half point underdogs in

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Speaker 1: this game on the road in Indianapolis, the number is

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Speaker 1: forty one. If you like Jacksonville to continue to just

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00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:12,360
Speaker 1: beat up on the Coats and just own them for

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Speaker 1: the last three times that they've played each other, well

270
00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:17,439
Speaker 1: that's plus one oh five on the money line. But Friedman,

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Speaker 1: I know it's kind of tough to put a lot

272
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Speaker 1: of faith in the Colts. I know a lot also

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Speaker 1: has to do with Jonathan Taylor. So I guess with

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Speaker 1: the Jonathan Taylor variable in here, is this a weight

275
00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:28,440
Speaker 1: and bet or is this a bet now before you

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Speaker 1: get more clarity on that situation.

277
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Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm waiting for two things. For the clarity

278
00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:38,839
Speaker 2: on the injury situation, because I'm not taking it. It's

279
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Speaker 2: not that I'm not taking it into account. It's just

280
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Speaker 2: hard to know exactly the degree right now to which

281
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Speaker 2: we should be baking those injuries into the line. And

282
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Speaker 2: so I have a small deduction assuming that some of

283
00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:52,280
Speaker 2: the players who are out will miss time. But it's

284
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Speaker 2: just it's really hard to know which ones actually will

285
00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:58,440
Speaker 2: miss time. So I'm waiting partially for that, and then

286
00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:01,080
Speaker 2: partially with this number of one and a half, just

287
00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:03,440
Speaker 2: to see which direction it goes to see, Like, I

288
00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:06,320
Speaker 2: have this number right now, Colts minus three. I don't

289
00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:08,880
Speaker 2: really feel great about it. But if we see this

290
00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:11,520
Speaker 2: number move to minus two, then I'm gonna feel a

291
00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:14,640
Speaker 2: little bit better about it, knowing that I'm maybe like

292
00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:16,960
Speaker 2: on the right direction of this. Even though I would

293
00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,200
Speaker 2: lose a half point of value, there's not much of

294
00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:22,320
Speaker 2: the difference between one point five and two. So I'm

295
00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:24,760
Speaker 2: just waiting to see where the market goes on this.

296
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Speaker 1: Patt, I'll give you an sat analogy. The forty nine

297
00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:32,120
Speaker 1: ers are to the Rams as the Jacksonville Jaguars are

298
00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:35,440
Speaker 1: to the Colts. Does it stay true yet again? This week?

299
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Speaker 4: I'm gonna take the Jags in this one.

300
00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:41,480
Speaker 3: And it sort of fits my formula of games I

301
00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:43,640
Speaker 3: like to bet on with the one team coming off

302
00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:47,760
Speaker 3: a very embittering, disappointing loss. The Jaguars, I'm sure they

303
00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:50,360
Speaker 3: should have you know, felt like that game against the

304
00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:52,120
Speaker 3: text and should have been a layup, and I know

305
00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:57,200
Speaker 3: it crushed a great many Survivor Pool entrants, and then

306
00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:00,960
Speaker 3: going against a Colts team maybe is feeling a little

307
00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,960
Speaker 3: fat and happy after stealing that Monday or that Thursday

308
00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:06,680
Speaker 3: night win against the Broncos, even though they should have

309
00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:10,040
Speaker 3: no reason to be happy. And to me, the overriding

310
00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,200
Speaker 3: thing I'm looking at here is that the Colts offense

311
00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:16,440
Speaker 3: is just broken. It is completely broken. I mean, Matt

312
00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:20,400
Speaker 3: Ryan looks horrible. Five touchdowns and seven interceptions so far,

313
00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,760
Speaker 3: and he's just been a sack machine. Like this offense

314
00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:26,800
Speaker 3: goes backward as frequently as it goes forward, even with

315
00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:29,120
Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor back like, I don't know how much it

316
00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:33,080
Speaker 3: fixes what the fundamental problems have been for the Colts.

317
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Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm I'm inclined to bet the trends here

318
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Speaker 3: and keep riding the Jaguars against their you know, bewildered nemesis.

319
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Speaker 1: Right, obviously we got more games to get to. Before

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Speaker 1: we do, I want to take a quick break in

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Speaker 1: the action to tell you about Sleepers over Under game.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: A lot of you are already playing all your fantasy

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Speaker 1: leagues on Sleeper, as you should because it's the best

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Speaker 1: platform to be playing that. But they've got a really

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00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:01,280
Speaker 1: cool fun game now over one. It's their new over

327
00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:03,560
Speaker 1: under game. It's super simple. First, in any sport, you

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00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:05,800
Speaker 1: choose two or more players that you like, and you

329
00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:07,920
Speaker 1: pick from the over under for example, rushing yards in

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00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,680
Speaker 1: a football game, points in a basketball game. Then you

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Speaker 1: choose the amount of money you want to enter into

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Speaker 1: the contest, and if you pick correctly, you can anywhere

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00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:17,640
Speaker 1: from two to twenty times your money. And it's all

334
00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:20,720
Speaker 1: happening over at Sleeper, So go check it out. And

335
00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:24,520
Speaker 1: obviously you can go to Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros.

336
00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:27,080
Speaker 1: That's Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros. Use that promo

337
00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:30,040
Speaker 1: code betting Pros that's all one word betting pros at

338
00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:32,000
Speaker 1: Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros and you'll get one

339
00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:35,120
Speaker 1: hundred percent deposit match up to one hundred dollars to

340
00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:37,400
Speaker 1: go make your deposit over on Sleeper and play a

341
00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,760
Speaker 1: little over under. Let's get to another game here that's

342
00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:43,120
Speaker 1: got some over under in it. It's got the Minnesota Vikings,

343
00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,760
Speaker 1: who are four and one three point road favorites, taking

344
00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,040
Speaker 1: on the Miami Dolphins, who are running out of quarterbacks

345
00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:52,040
Speaker 1: at an alarming rate. Forty five and a half is

346
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:55,400
Speaker 1: the number for this one. So you know, everything was

347
00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:58,360
Speaker 1: going in a great direction here for the Dolphins. Now

348
00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:01,280
Speaker 1: it's been a tough couple weeks here, So pat can

349
00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:03,640
Speaker 1: the Dolphins circle the wagons here? I know it's tough

350
00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:05,879
Speaker 1: because we don't have quarterback clarity yet, but is that

351
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:07,800
Speaker 1: all the more reason to be aggressive on this game

352
00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:11,240
Speaker 1: now before we get a little bit more potential clarity

353
00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:13,800
Speaker 1: and then maybe this number grows from three to five.

354
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I still want to jump on the Dolphins at

355
00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:19,760
Speaker 3: this number, Joe, But like I feel like I want

356
00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:23,399
Speaker 3: to at least find out, you know, with some degree

357
00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:25,720
Speaker 3: of certainty that Skyler Thompson is not going to be

358
00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:29,480
Speaker 3: their starting quarterback for this game. Like, I think that

359
00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:31,360
Speaker 3: would kind of be a disaster. But there's no way

360
00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,240
Speaker 3: the Viking should be favored by three in Miami. They're

361
00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:37,640
Speaker 3: just not not good enough to be favored by three

362
00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:41,040
Speaker 3: against a respectable team at the very least, Like I know,

363
00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,800
Speaker 3: Miami's got some issues. Their past defense has been terrible,

364
00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:49,000
Speaker 3: and obviously the quarterback thing is huge. But yeah, man,

365
00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:50,960
Speaker 3: I really want to take this now. I think I'm

366
00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:54,400
Speaker 3: going to just take it and hope that either two

367
00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:55,520
Speaker 3: or Teddy can play.

368
00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:58,720
Speaker 1: Friedman, this is a really precarious situation because of what

369
00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:01,359
Speaker 1: happened with Tua and now it's going on with Teddy Bridgewater.

370
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:05,240
Speaker 1: You know, it almost feels like the Dolphins have to

371
00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:09,640
Speaker 1: now maybe be more I would say protective, because they're

372
00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,200
Speaker 1: so under the microscope right now that I think Scott R.

373
00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:15,800
Speaker 1: Thompson playing might be almost a foregone conclusion because the

374
00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,320
Speaker 1: league and there the microscope is so focused on them

375
00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:18,720
Speaker 1: right now.

376
00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:19,560
Speaker 4: And if that is the.

377
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,359
Speaker 1: Case, even if Pat's saying maybe Minnesota's not that great,

378
00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,120
Speaker 1: as good as that record might be, does this mean, though,

379
00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,080
Speaker 1: that you got a third string quarterback and the Vikings

380
00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:29,840
Speaker 1: coming to town, that this three is going to potentially

381
00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:32,560
Speaker 1: balloon very quickly? Maybe?

382
00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:37,640
Speaker 2: I okay, I think that one of tu or Teddy's

383
00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:43,240
Speaker 2: going to play in this game. But Bridgewater apparently cleared

384
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:48,720
Speaker 2: the concussion test, but the Independent spotter said that he

385
00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:52,159
Speaker 2: was wobbly or whatever, so they didn't let him back in.

386
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 2: But if he already cleared the concussion test, then he

387
00:18:56,119 --> 00:19:00,560
Speaker 2: might not actually be in the league's protocol move forward,

388
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:03,280
Speaker 2: like with the new rules, Like, I'm not sure exactly

389
00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:08,200
Speaker 2: what the process is now, but I'm just I'm thinking

390
00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,160
Speaker 2: that there's a decent chance we see Bridgewater. So if

391
00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:13,879
Speaker 2: I were to bet on this, it would be the Dolphins.

392
00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:16,760
Speaker 2: But it's such an unknown situation that I'm just going

393
00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:18,280
Speaker 2: to stay away at this point.

394
00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:20,760
Speaker 1: Fair enough, fair enough staying away. Let's see if we

395
00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:22,280
Speaker 1: want to stay away from this next one. The Cincinnati

396
00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:25,440
Speaker 1: Bengals going off another in division loss, a tough one

397
00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:27,280
Speaker 1: for them. Why they're just not kicking a field goal there,

398
00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:30,320
Speaker 1: I'll never understand. I don't get that, but anyway, I'm

399
00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:33,359
Speaker 1: not better. Two and three Cinnati Bengals going on the

400
00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:35,280
Speaker 1: road into New Orleans. Another team that's got a whole

401
00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:37,560
Speaker 1: host of problems. They are two and three. Also, somebody's

402
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,720
Speaker 1: gonna come out with a victory here. The New Orleans

403
00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:43,679
Speaker 1: Saints are one and a half point home dogs in

404
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:45,720
Speaker 1: this one. Forty four is the number I know. The

405
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,159
Speaker 1: home dog situation is one we usually like to jump on,

406
00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:50,560
Speaker 1: but some of the chaos going on there in New

407
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 1: Orleans right now? Foreman, how do you feel about this

408
00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,679
Speaker 1: roster and this team and are they maybe just this

409
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 1: team that's going to underperform all season? I have this

410
00:19:59,160 --> 00:19:59,920
Speaker 1: right where it should.

411
00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:04,280
Speaker 2: I have this at one one and a half. The

412
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:08,240
Speaker 2: The Taysom Hill situation is really interesting from like the

413
00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:12,360
Speaker 2: fantasy perspective, and you know, sure from the betting perspective,

414
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:15,199
Speaker 2: like we don't know if Jameis Winston is returning for

415
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,640
Speaker 2: this game or not. I think it's hard to quantify

416
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 2: at this point what the difference is between Winston and

417
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:24,720
Speaker 2: Andy Dalton. You know, I think Winston is probably more volatile.

418
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:27,919
Speaker 2: He might be worth more points against the spread, But

419
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:30,160
Speaker 2: you know, week to week, you have a better sense

420
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,200
Speaker 2: of what you're getting out at Dalton, So that consistency

421
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 2: on its own is worth something. So I don't know,

422
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:37,679
Speaker 2: I'm just staying away from this. I you know, I

423
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:39,680
Speaker 2: have it very close to market.

424
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 1: Passes to stay away from you as well.

425
00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:46,119
Speaker 3: I think it is I think I've overestimated both the

426
00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 3: Bengals offense and the Saints defense a bit this year,

427
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 3: so I'm a little bit flum mixed about how to

428
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,920
Speaker 3: assess that, and you know, I'm actually maybe a little

429
00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 3: bit inclined to the over. I saw forty four and

430
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:02,359
Speaker 3: a half at DraftKings this morning, and I've got this

431
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,640
Speaker 3: projected at forty five. Like, I don't know if that's

432
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 3: strong enough for me to actually play it, but I'm

433
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,240
Speaker 3: with Friedman. I mean, it just kind of feels like

434
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,360
Speaker 3: this is right on, and you know.

435
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 4: It does feel like close to a pick.

436
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:16,160
Speaker 1: I'm okay. Next on our list the Baltimore Ravens going

437
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,560
Speaker 1: to the New York Giants. The Giants are four and one,

438
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 1: if you can believe it, somehow I can't. They are

439
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,160
Speaker 1: five and a half point home underdogs, though as Baltimore

440
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:26,879
Speaker 1: comes to town, forty three and a half is the

441
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 1: number if you think the Giants just can't be beat

442
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 1: plus two hundred on the money line. I guess here's

443
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 1: the question. I know the Giants keep finding ways to win,

444
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 1: pat but here we go again. This is a team

445
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 1: that has a much better quarterback situation, a team that's

446
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:40,199
Speaker 1: finally coming off another victory.

447
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 4: Here.

448
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 1: I know it feels like a trap almost that the Giants,

449
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:45,440
Speaker 1: you know, are like yeah, they're not that good. They'll

450
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 1: have to good, but they keep winning games. So I

451
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 1: don't know at what point the ship rights or things

452
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 1: correct themselves. Is it gonna happen this week? Is the

453
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 1: five and a half a safe number here for the Giants? No?

454
00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 4: I mean, this feels like exactly the right number for

455
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 4: this game. And like I just.

456
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 3: It's amazing how Brian Dable has been able to make

457
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 3: this work. As I said, it's a a guy ver job.

458
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:11,119
Speaker 3: It's it's chewing gum and duct tape and you know,

459
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 3: close hagars.

460
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,920
Speaker 4: He's getting it done with, you know, such a.

461
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 3: Depleted wide receiver corps and you know, basically Saquon Barkley

462
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,360
Speaker 3: and not much else. And to Daniel Jones credit, he's

463
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 3: got two games without committing a turnover. Are we gonna

464
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 3: bet on three games without a turnover from Daniel Jones?

465
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 3: I'm kind of disinclined to think that's going to happen. So,

466
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:39,440
Speaker 3: you know, Raven's very professional outfit. Rarely do they massively underachieve.

467
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 3: I don't know, I'm inclined to bet the Ravens if anything,

468
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:46,639
Speaker 3: but I'm probably just staying away from this game.

469
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 1: Well, Marlon Humphrey and the rest of that secondary. I

470
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 1: think have been listening to all the chirping going on,

471
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,400
Speaker 1: and they got a lot of obviously pressure on Joe

472
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 1: Burrow last night. So is that just the turning of

473
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,399
Speaker 1: the corner here for this Ravens team in your opinion, Freeman,

474
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 1: than is that going to be dentially a Ravens blowout

475
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 1: in this game.

476
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:08,439
Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm leaning more towards the Giants on this,

477
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 2: but I do so with great reluctance. Telling your voice

478
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 2: it sounds like it. Yeah, and in part because I

479
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 2: just I don't trust a lot of what I've seen.

480
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:20,840
Speaker 2: And then also it's hard to factor in the travel

481
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 2: from London in this spot, So I'm probably going to

482
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,679
Speaker 2: be taking a hands off approach because I don't know

483
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 2: if I'm discounting them enough based on the travel fair enough.

484
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 4: Yeah.

485
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,719
Speaker 3: By the way, Joe, you mentioned the Ravens secondary. They

486
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 3: lost Marcus Williams, their free safety to a dislocated risk

487
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 3: last night. It's kind of interesting they didn't put in

488
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 3: Kyle Hamilton, the rookie first rounder.

489
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 4: They put in Geno's Stone.

490
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 1: You know what, let me tell you about the Hamilton situation.

491
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 1: It's something that Bogman and I talked about in the

492
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 1: IDP Show early in the year where we told everybody like,

493
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 1: you got to fade him a little bit because you've

494
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 1: not gotten a lot of good buzz coming out on

495
00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 1: him early on, and that was the opportun where you thought, Okay,

496
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:02,439
Speaker 1: well maybe you get Hamilton. In fact you didn't. I

497
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 1: think it speaks a lot. That's a big volume there

498
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 1: about that. So that's a great point you're bringing up.

499
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 3: Man, if you want to get acclimated to playing without

500
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 3: your starting free safety, the Giants are a pretty good

501
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 3: team to try to, you know, get a readjustment game

502
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 3: in because they're they're probably not going to burn you deep.

503
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,199
Speaker 1: I'm waiting for them to bring Victor Cruz back or

504
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:23,919
Speaker 1: somebody like. They gotta start kicking the tires, and you know,

505
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 1: it's like one of those those movies where you got

506
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 1: to like get all the old guys back together, see

507
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 1: if they got one more run in them. I don't know.

508
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 1: Let's take a quick break in the action to tell

509
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,359
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515
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:54,720
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516
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517
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518
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525
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526
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527
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,800
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528
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529
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530
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531
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 1: hop E n Y. In New York, call or text

532
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 1: the Tennessee Redline at one eight hundred eight nine nine

533
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 1: seven eight nine in Tennessee, or called one eight eight

534
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 1: seven seven seven nine six nine six in Mississippi. In Ontario,

535
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536
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,560
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537
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:43,640
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538
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,040
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539
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 1: and other states where prohibitive and promotional offers is not

540
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 1: available in Nevada and New York. And now back to

541
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:53,439
Speaker 1: the action. Let's go to Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh. The

542
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:55,360
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Seers are one and four. Of course, they got

543
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 1: their doors bowing off by Buffalo, which is what everybody expected,

544
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 1: and certainly the doors were sufficient blown off. Now they

545
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 1: get Tampa. We knew this is gonna be a tough

546
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 1: stretch for Kenny Pickett knew it was gonna be a

547
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 1: tough stretch for the Steelers, and it's going to prove such.

548
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 1: Forty two and a half is the number here. They

549
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 1: have not played well at home this year. We know

550
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:13,640
Speaker 1: that seven and a half is this number two? Big, Pat?

551
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:15,679
Speaker 1: Or do you think this is a spot on here again?

552
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 4: Oh, doesn't it seem like it's too big, Joe?

553
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 3: I mean, like the Steelers Mike Tomlin coming off a

554
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 3: loss there at home. But there's no way, like we

555
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 3: have to reassess where we are with the Pittsburgh Steelers

556
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:29,479
Speaker 3: right now, and I think some of the old trends

557
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 3: go out the window for this team.

558
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 4: This is just such a transition team. Yeah, it really is.

559
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 3: I Mean, it's just so they're so underpowered compared to

560
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 3: a normal Pittsburgh Steelers team. So even though the trends

561
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 3: I'm sure are all pointing to you know, taking the

562
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:48,159
Speaker 3: points more than a touchdown with Pittsburgh, I don't know.

563
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 4: This seems like the kind of game Friedman would take

564
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 4: with the Steelers.

565
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 3: But yeah, I'm not buying the Steelers at this I'm

566
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 3: just like walking away from this game.

567
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 1: All right, Freedman pat kind of three under the bus there?

568
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:03,920
Speaker 1: Would you like to climb out from under? And? Uh,

569
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 1: take an opinion on this game.

570
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:09,359
Speaker 2: I hate this game because I'm very much I'm on

571
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 2: the Steelers too. I feel like it's the way that.

572
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 1: Tomlin's a good coach. Like I kind of feel like

573
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:18,879
Speaker 1: seven and a half is kind of big. What's your number?

574
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 4: Five and a half?

575
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:24,199
Speaker 2: And I don't I don't trust it, but you know,

576
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,400
Speaker 2: I it's funny like there. Yeah, there are certain trends

577
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 2: and like factors that get taken into account in my

578
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,440
Speaker 2: in my model, and I think that that is skewing

579
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:36,880
Speaker 2: this a little bit relative to the power ratings because

580
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 2: I'm still I'm still high on Tampa Bay. I think

581
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 2: they're one of the best teams in the NFC, And

582
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 2: at this point I have the Steelers as like a

583
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:50,159
Speaker 2: bottom five, bottom six team in my power ratings. But

584
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,640
Speaker 2: they are at home. Uh, they tend to bounce back

585
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 2: after losses. They tend to do well as underdogs. But yeah,

586
00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 2: it's just a question of whether that history is actually

587
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:04,199
Speaker 2: predictive at this point because it's just new circumstances with

588
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 2: this team. So, uh, I'm if I had to take

589
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 2: a side, I would take Pittsburgh, but I don't feel

590
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:15,920
Speaker 2: good about it. I haven't uh, let me, let me see,

591
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 2: let me remind myself.

592
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 1: I haven't bet yet. We gotta we gotta give him

593
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 1: a second. Here, go ahead, it's it. It's at eight.

594
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:26,479
Speaker 2: It has moved to seven and a half at some books,

595
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 2: which does indicate that the Steelers are the side. At

596
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 2: least that money early money is going to. So I'm

597
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 2: going to look at that, and if it moves to

598
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 2: seven and a half at more books, I probably will

599
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 2: jump on the eight that is still out there, and

600
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 2: then I'm just gonna hate myself for the rest of

601
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 2: the week.

602
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 3: See, I didn't have to throw Friedman under the boss joke.

603
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 3: Friedman just lays down in front of the boss.

604
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 4: It's more up a train.

605
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 1: Let's get to the next one year, the Carolina Panthers

606
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 1: taking on the Los Angeles Rams. I hope everybody's heard

607
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 1: me sufficiently now after the last I don't three weeks

608
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 1: telling everybody how the Rams are so overrated. I think

609
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 1: they're finally catching up. I think it's all you know.

610
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 1: I think we're good now the Rams are two and three.

611
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 1: There's still nine and a half point favorites in this

612
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 1: one against Carolina. They're at home. Carolina is no good.

613
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 1: We know that forty one and a half is the number.

614
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 1: This could be Matt rules final game, although who knows.

615
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 1: You know, there's still six days to get there, so

616
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 1: so who knows you know what might happen. He might

617
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 1: have already coached his final game. We have no idea

618
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 1: what's going on here, But Freeman, this is this is

619
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: like you want to talk about gut check time. Right.

620
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 1: For the Rams, this is a game that they should

621
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 1: absolutely crush the opponent. They are theoretically just a far

622
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 1: superior talented team, although a top heavy team at that. However,

623
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 1: problems on the offensive line continue, Stafford's problems continue. Where

624
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 1: are you at with this one? Nine and a half

625
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 1: seems awfully big considering how the Rams have really underperformed.

626
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, this was nine and it has bumped up to

627
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 2: nine and a half. So the early money is indicating

628
00:29:58,000 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 2: that the Rams are the.

629
00:29:59,240 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 1: Side to back.

630
00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 2: He I have this at eight and a half. I'm

631
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 2: not super desirous to bet on the Panthers in this spot,

632
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 2: given how bad they have looked and now Baker Mayfield

633
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 2: potentially injured with the foot in the walking boot, although

634
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 2: that's maybe just to say face gotta be honest. That

635
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 2: crossed my mind, but I don't know. If it gets

636
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 2: to ten, I will think about it, But even then

637
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 2: I still like it. If there ever is a time

638
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 2: to bet on that rule, it is as a road underdog.

639
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 2: So that is factoring into this a little bit, but

640
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 2: I'm staying away for now. If it gets to ten,

641
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 2: I will think, I will think about it, I'll look

642
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 2: in the mirror, and then I will probably talk myself

643
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 2: into betting on it.

644
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 1: I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and dog gonnet. I

645
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 1: don't like the Rams. How about you here, Pat Fitzmoris,

646
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 1: when you're looking at this one? I mean, this should

647
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 1: be Rams get right game? But does that exist at

648
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 1: this point for them?

649
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 3: It might not with this offense show and this game

650
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 3: is destined to make eyeballs bleed, like this is a

651
00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 3: game I want no part of watching.

652
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 1: It's gonna.

653
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 3: Like is it gonna be any better if Baker Mayfield

654
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 3: does play? But if he doesn't play, I don't know

655
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 3: what the what the Panthers are going to do because

656
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 3: I don't think uh, Sam Darnold is quite ready to

657
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 3: come back yet if said that, and they don't have

658
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 3: Matt Carral so man, it's gonna be interesting.

659
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 4: And yeah, I just like I can't.

660
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 3: Maybe I would be inclined to to place a small

661
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 3: bat on the Panthers if they do show Matt roll

662
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 3: the door this week, like maybe they get the bounce

663
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 3: from that, just it would be PJ interesting. Yeah, and

664
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 3: it is PJ really a downgrade from Baker at this point, so.

665
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 4: Uh, you know, at least at least maybe exactly exactly.

666
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 3: So boy, yeah, if they spike Matt Role, maybe, like

667
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,240
Speaker 3: I'm not betting the Panthers as long as Matt Rule

668
00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 3: is still there, Like they're just like this.

669
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 1: If they if they spike Matt Rule, I'm all in

670
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 1: on the Panthers because that trend of firing the coach

671
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 1: and winning the next game has been so incredible. And

672
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 1: what's the money line on they are Carolina is three

673
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 1: ten plus three ten. I'm telling you right now, I

674
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 1: am going to run to the book whenever that happens

675
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 1: and just go bet on betting pros.

676
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 3: I'm telling you, Yeah, I mean, because we know that

677
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 3: the Rams don't really have much of a home field

678
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 3: advantage and no so fi like neither of the LA

679
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 3: teams too.

680
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 4: So yeah, that.

681
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 3: Would that is intriguing. That is intriguing that money line

682
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 3: that I might be with you on that one, Joe.

683
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 4: I like that.

684
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 1: Hey man, hey, we already I already told you about

685
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 1: the Panthers a couple weeks ago. Nobody wanted to hear me.

686
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 1: Then now you hear me knocking. I think I'm coming

687
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 1: in and I'm bringing PJ. Walker with me, all right.

688
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals against Seattle. Seattle's now down and running back

689
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 1: with Rashad Penny. So it's the Ken Walker era, which

690
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 1: started off pretty good yesterday. They are two and three.

691
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 1: They are two and a half point home underdogs, though

692
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 1: to the Cardinals, they are also two and three. The

693
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:00,600
Speaker 1: number for this one is fifty one and a half

694
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 1: pat That seems where the intrigue lies in this one.

695
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 1: So the lack of defense here on these teams, it

696
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 1: feels like an over sometimes these overs, though have been disappointing.

697
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 1: Is this one that plays up to our expectations or

698
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 1: falls below them?

699
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 4: I really like the under here.

700
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 3: I've got this at forty eight and a half, so

701
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 3: I'm gonna hit the under. I just like the Cardinals

702
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 3: offense I don't consider potent, and they might be down

703
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 3: a running back too, Joe.

704
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 4: It's possible.

705
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 3: I know James Connor sustains some sort of ribs injury,

706
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 3: although it's not believed to be serious, so I would

707
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 3: expect he probably misses some practices this week.

708
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 4: Who knows if he plays.

709
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 3: Not a big factor ultimately here, though, but this is

710
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 3: probably one of the games I feel more strongly about

711
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 3: on the slate. They're a lot where I just you know,

712
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 3: don't want to touch anything. But I think Seattle's a

713
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 3: little undervalued here at home. I think they should only

714
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 3: be like a one point home dog, and I do

715
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 3: like the under here. Like, I know these defenses are bad,

716
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 3: but there are also some issues with both of these

717
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 3: offenses where I'm not I'm still not totally comfortable seeing

718
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 3: Gino Smith as an above average NFL starting quarterback. I

719
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 3: have to admit to that. And you know, like there

720
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 3: have been times when this Arizona offense has really misfired

721
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 3: during the season. So yeah, I'm on Seattle and the

722
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:26,239
Speaker 3: under here.

723
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 1: In all fairness, we have to grade on a curve

724
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 1: this year with some of the substandard quarterback play that

725
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:33,760
Speaker 1: we've seen, so Gino Smith is an above average quarterback

726
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two from what we've seen so far. Friedman,

727
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 1: the Cardinals had a moment here, could have sent that

728
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 1: game to overtime. Obviously came up a field go short.

729
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 1: Maybe a few other Cliff Kingsbury decisions once again questionable.

730
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,480
Speaker 1: Is this another spot where Cliff Kingsbury kind of out

731
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 1: coaches himself, which should probably be a win for this team,

732
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 1: or is this an opportunity here for them to go

733
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:56,839
Speaker 1: here in this Indivision game, go out there and get

734
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 1: a victory on the road in a huge Indivision one

735
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 1: potentially at that I.

736
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 2: Mean it's an opportunity for them to do it. I

737
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 2: don't think they're going to. You know, we've seen exactly

738
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:08,279
Speaker 2: when they struggle, it's in the first half and they're

739
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 2: fine in the second half when the game plan gets

740
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:14,640
Speaker 2: abandoned and it's Kyler Murray ignoring Cliff Kingsbury and just

741
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 2: going out there and taking over through his talent. And

742
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 2: we've actually seen the Seahawks be really good to open games,

743
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 2: like the scripted portions of their games have been really strong.

744
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 2: I normally don't look too much in like the first

745
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 2: half versus second half Markets or anything like that. If

746
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 2: I'm looking at the game, I like Seattle in the spot,

747
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 2: I'd probably take them on the money line. But if

748
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 2: I'm looking in the first half versus second half Markets,

749
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:40,360
Speaker 2: I do Seattle in the first half, and then I

750
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:41,880
Speaker 2: do Cardinals in the second half.

751
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:44,840
Speaker 1: I like the breakdown there, very nice, well done. All right,

752
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 1: let's move to the next one here, this is the

753
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:47,720
Speaker 1: one we all want to see. Four in one Buffalo

754
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 1: against three to one Kansas City Kansasity Place tonight. They

755
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills are two point road favorites in this game.

756
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 1: Now they probably should be, especially after that schillacking they

757
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:00,439
Speaker 1: gave the Steelers and Josh Allen throwing for three fifty

758
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 1: yards in the first half. Fifty three and a half

759
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 1: is the number. So last time these two teams met, Freeman,

760
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 1: this was an epic game. Everybody remembers it, one of

761
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 1: the most entertaining fourth quarters in that you ever see,

762
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 1: let alone the overtime. So here's the revenge narrative. Right,

763
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,319
Speaker 1: Buffalo goes in there, makes a statement or do they

764
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 1: fall a little short and again and does this total

765
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 1: potentially underwhelmed to Matt.

766
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 2: They beat the Steelers, Like, yeah, they crushed the Steelers,

767
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:29,919
Speaker 2: but I'm not putting too much weight on that game.

768
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 2: And the thing is, even after that game, I did

769
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 2: upgrade them in my ratings, and I still think the

770
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 2: Chiefs should be favored in this spot. Like the Chiefs

771
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 2: are still a very good team, and they are at

772
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 2: home and Arrowhead is one of the few stadiums that

773
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:48,879
Speaker 2: I think does provide like a significant home field advantage.

774
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:53,720
Speaker 2: It's it's it's.

775
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 1: Fishy your body just now, and it's.

776
00:36:56,960 --> 00:37:00,840
Speaker 2: Very square to be like, oh, Patrick Mahomes an underdog,

777
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,640
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna think any more about this, but like really,

778
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 2: he's six zero to one as an underdog. Like, if

779
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 2: you give me the opportunity to bet on Patrick Mahomes

780
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:11,759
Speaker 2: as an underdog, I'm going to do it now. The

781
00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:16,360
Speaker 2: thing is, I'm probably wrong because this line like opened

782
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:19,400
Speaker 2: at one one and a half, it's moved, you know,

783
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 2: from two to two and a half now at DraftKings,

784
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 2: Like that's the first two and a half that's popped

785
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 2: up in the market. I bet that the rest of

786
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 2: the market moves in that direction. So although I'm on

787
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:34,560
Speaker 2: Kansas City, if you like Kansas City. If you haven't

788
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:37,720
Speaker 2: bet it yet, I would probably just wait and see

789
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 2: what happens. If this number gets to three, then I would.

790
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 2: I mean, I can't imagine Patrick Mahomes is a three

791
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 2: point underdog at home.

792
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 1: That just that feels ridiculous.

793
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 2: But there is a very real chance that the market

794
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 2: gets there because I could be wrong, and people love

795
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 2: the Bills right.

796
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:58,279
Speaker 1: Now, that's fair. Well, look Freedman saying that the wrong

797
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 1: team's favored pat They've struggled a bit sometimes. The Kansasity

798
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 1: Chiefs we saw in just in Anneapolis a couple of

799
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 1: weeks ago, right, who knows we're going to see tonight

800
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:08,719
Speaker 1: against the Raiders. If they struggle against the Raiders, maybe

801
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:10,440
Speaker 1: this line gets impacted quite a bit. How do you

802
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:12,440
Speaker 1: see this one? And is there any early value?

803
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 4: I've already bet Kansas City.

804
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 3: I'm with Freedman on this, which makes me a little

805
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:19,320
Speaker 3: nervous because Freedman and I went down on some of

806
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:21,799
Speaker 3: the same sinking ships yesterday. Although we're both on the

807
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:27,240
Speaker 3: Chiefs tonight, so it's possible Friedman is right, and if

808
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 3: Kansas City struggles in the Monday night game against the Raiders,

809
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 3: we are going to see this line.

810
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:33,080
Speaker 4: Go to three or above.

811
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 3: But if Kansas City trucks the Raiders, as I'm kind

812
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 3: of betting on, maybe we see this come back down

813
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 3: the other way. So that is kind of what I

814
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 3: wanted to guard against by getting this game in early.

815
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 3: With the Chiefs, I agree, I mean, talk about a

816
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:51,840
Speaker 3: live home dog and for a game of this magnitude, like,

817
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 3: there's no way the Chiefs and their fans aren't gonna

818
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 3: be up.

819
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 4: From this one. So I'm with Freedman. I took this

820
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 4: one early.

821
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 3: As far as the total, like my projection say, like

822
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 3: it's half a point too high. There's no way I'm

823
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 3: betting the under on this. This feels like the Ram

824
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 3: This feels like the Rams Chiefs game of a few

825
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:11,800
Speaker 3: years ago, where you're like, wow, that's a high total.

826
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 3: I don't know if it gets there, and like it

827
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 3: goes lying over early in the second half exactly. So

828
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 3: not touching the total here.

829
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 1: All right, Dallas and Philadelphia, Philadelphia undefeated, they are at home,

830
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 1: they're five point favorites against the Cowboys. Cowboys pick up

831
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:29,840
Speaker 1: another big win and it's on the road. Still waiting

832
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 1: for more clarity with the Dak Prescott situation. Pat, even

833
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:35,839
Speaker 1: if Dak came back, how do you feel about this five?

834
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 1: How do you feel about the forty three and a half?

835
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I would kind of like Dak and

836
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 3: the Cowboys if he is indeed back at this number,

837
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 3: But then if he's not back at this number, I

838
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 3: kind of like Philly, So, you know, I just it

839
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:51,879
Speaker 3: seems like this is the week when he could come back.

840
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 3: I'm almost inclined to take this at you know, this number,

841
00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 3: but I'm not sure if I'm bold enough to do that.

842
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,840
Speaker 3: And I definitely I am bold enough to take the

843
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,279
Speaker 3: over though sight unseen, because I think it could get

844
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:09,280
Speaker 3: there even if Cooper rushes quarterbacking the Cowboys, I think

845
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 3: the over has an excellent chance of coming in if

846
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 3: it's Dak back at the controls.

847
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 1: Cowboys are really feeling this underdog narrative, especially on the

848
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 1: defensive side. Friedman. They have kind of said, all right,

849
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 1: you want to under appreciate us, We're going to keep

850
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:25,279
Speaker 1: sticking it to everybody who thinks we can't win these

851
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 1: football games. But now you're in the Eagles, it's a

852
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:29,400
Speaker 1: little bit different story. This is a more complete team.

853
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on this one here, especially with

854
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 1: some of the quarterback uncertainty.

855
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:37,320
Speaker 2: I think Eagles. I think the crush in this spot.

856
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 2: I don't think Dak plays. He didn't practice at all

857
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 2: last week, and they have said that they want him

858
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:45,720
Speaker 2: to have a full week of practice before he plays.

859
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 2: So I think with the bye week for them coming

860
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 2: up after this, I think it's smart for them just

861
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 2: to let him rest and then return after that. So

862
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 2: I don't think he's going to play. And Micah Parsons

863
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,760
Speaker 2: is dealing with believe a hamstring or a groin injury,

864
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 2: and so he was a ploying Yeah, yeah, he wasn't

865
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 2: playing his full complement of snaps, and so you know

866
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:10,279
Speaker 2: he was still effective as a situational pass rusher, but

867
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,680
Speaker 2: going against one of the best offensive line in the league,

868
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:15,719
Speaker 2: you know, like you're going to need all of your

869
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 2: guys out there for all of their their normal array

870
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 2: of snaps. So I don't think that this is a

871
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 2: good spot for the Cowboys. I have this closer. I

872
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:27,759
Speaker 2: have this at six point seven to five, right, so

873
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 2: very close to seven. I think there's value here at

874
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:30,800
Speaker 2: this number.

875
00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:33,439
Speaker 1: That's the Sunday night football game, which leads won more

876
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:37,160
Speaker 1: just the Monday night game Denver at the Chargers six

877
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites? Are the Chargers forty six

878
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 1: and a half is the number? A? Look, I don't

879
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 1: know if that's enough right My disdain for the Broncos

880
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 1: runs deep right now. So am I overreacting here, Freedman?

881
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 4: Or is I mean?

882
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 1: It feels like the Chargers should go in there and

883
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 1: absolutely just trounce them, because the Denver Broncos just do

884
00:41:57,600 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 1: not look like a good football team right now. Thataniell

885
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:02,920
Speaker 1: Hackett look it completely overwhelmed. Russell Wilson's dealing with an injury.

886
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:05,240
Speaker 1: You've lost your running back, which means all of a sudden,

887
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:06,960
Speaker 1: now this offense doesn't feel like it's going in the

888
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:09,879
Speaker 1: right direction. And Russell Wilson is tunnel vision right now.

889
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 1: He's looking for one guy on one play each time.

890
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 1: He has not seeing the football field. I don't know

891
00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 1: if it's something we could shake from him right now.

892
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:17,800
Speaker 1: And to me, this feels like I don't know the

893
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 1: nail on the coffin for the Broncos. But do you

894
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:20,320
Speaker 1: see it differently?

895
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he's dealing with the shoulder injury. This is

896
00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 2: I mean, but you know, fits kind of put it

897
00:42:25,719 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 2: perfectly when talking about an earlier game. This feels like

898
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:31,399
Speaker 2: the kind of game that Freedmom would like. I don't

899
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 2: want to bet. I don't want to bet on the

900
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 2: Broncos in the spot. I haven't done it yet, but

901
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 2: I have this number at four, and I don't know.

902
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,440
Speaker 2: I feel like I might need to make some adjustments,

903
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:44,879
Speaker 2: but I have it at four, and if it's six

904
00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:47,360
Speaker 2: and a half, that's pretty significant value.

905
00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 1: All right, how about you, Fitz, how do you feel

906
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 1: about this one? Am I just getting too harsh here

907
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:53,800
Speaker 1: on the Denver Broncos? Yeah?

908
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,720
Speaker 3: I mean so, I don't know, Friedman, are you clinging

909
00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:58,319
Speaker 3: to your priors on Denver here?

910
00:42:58,360 --> 00:42:58,600
Speaker 4: Like that?

911
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 3: They still have the talent to get the ship ready

912
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 3: because things have been so off as far as the chemistry,

913
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:05,560
Speaker 3: man like, it just seems like Hackett is not the

914
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 3: right guy for the job. It seems like the marriage

915
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:12,080
Speaker 3: with Russell Wilson isn't working out. And the other big

916
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 3: issue like losing Garrett Balls They're starting left tackles having

917
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 3: him carted off in the fourth quarter, like that's a

918
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 3: big deal. This offense was broken as it was, and

919
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 3: now they're losing their best offensive linemen like that is

920
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 3: a major problem. So, I mean, I think they should

921
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:30,160
Speaker 3: be six and a half and I'm inclined to maybe

922
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 3: bet the Chargers here.

923
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:35,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have bumped them down two point seventy five

924
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:38,439
Speaker 2: points from where I had them originally to start the year,

925
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:41,279
Speaker 2: and like that has taken into account the loss of

926
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:44,800
Speaker 2: Garrett Bulls, the loss of Randy Gregory, I mean, the

927
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:46,839
Speaker 2: loss of everyone that they've had.

928
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:48,839
Speaker 1: But I don't know, like.

929
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:51,320
Speaker 2: I'm not I'm not all that impressed by the Chargers

930
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:53,799
Speaker 2: this year, you know, like I have bumped them down

931
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 2: a little bit from where I had them too, not

932
00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:58,759
Speaker 2: you know, two point seventy five points, but I have

933
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 2: bumped them down a little bit. I doubt Keenan Allen

934
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:03,879
Speaker 2: plays in this game. He didn't practice that all last week,

935
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 2: so I don't think he's close to returning. I mean,

936
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:09,759
Speaker 2: six and a half for a divisional opponent that is

937
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:10,719
Speaker 2: that is a lot.

938
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,960
Speaker 3: You're right, so, and the Broncos are their d is

939
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 3: legit and they are hard to throw on. I like

940
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:20,160
Speaker 3: the under here too. It just does not feel like

941
00:44:20,239 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 3: we thought we were going to get shootouts in the

942
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 3: AFC West like all season long. I don't think we're

943
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:28,200
Speaker 3: going to see many shootouts with the Broncos, and you

944
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 3: know this is still almost bordering on a shootout line,

945
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:32,960
Speaker 3: so I'm inclined to take the under here.

946
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:36,759
Speaker 1: All right. That's the early look ahead right now for

947
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:40,240
Speaker 1: a week six in the NFL. Let's get everybody's favorite

948
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:42,640
Speaker 1: picks real quick, Pat, what are your three favorite early

949
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:43,760
Speaker 1: bets here this week?

950
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:46,080
Speaker 4: Man? We got to go with the Bears.

951
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:49,359
Speaker 3: We talked about that where I just like, I think

952
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 3: this game is being misvalued, So we're going to take

953
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 3: the Bears and the three points the Jacksonville Jaguars. This

954
00:44:56,680 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 3: is another one where you know, I'm going to play

955
00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:03,320
Speaker 3: the trends and play them continuing to smack the Colts around.

956
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 3: The Colts offense is it is just in a bad

957
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:09,000
Speaker 3: way right now. And you know, I think I talked

958
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:11,359
Speaker 3: myself into a new third favorite bet.

959
00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 4: I like this.

960
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:17,759
Speaker 3: Denver LA Chargers under the forty six. It was at

961
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 3: at DraftKings this morning, so I think that's going to

962
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:20,479
Speaker 3: play under.

963
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:22,560
Speaker 1: All right, Freeman, how about you one of your top

964
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:24,279
Speaker 1: early look aheads for week six?

965
00:45:25,239 --> 00:45:27,959
Speaker 2: Okay, so Kiss of Death Fitz and I are both

966
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:31,360
Speaker 2: on the Bears, as are one of our early fail.

967
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:32,960
Speaker 1: To go against the Bears.

968
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:38,439
Speaker 2: Okay, next, yeah, exactly, so on the Bears, I am

969
00:45:38,640 --> 00:45:43,280
Speaker 2: on Kansas City here as underdogs at home, money line

970
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 2: spread whatever. And then Philly minus five. I just I

971
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:51,399
Speaker 2: like them at home going against the Cowboys unit without

972
00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:54,160
Speaker 2: a fully healthy Micah Parsons and no Dak Prescott.

973
00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 1: Okay, there you have it. I want to remind everybody too.

974
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:59,359
Speaker 1: You got that over undergame going on its sleeper. Go

975
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 1: get involved in it right now. That's over at sleeper

976
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 1: dot app slash betting pros. Use the Promoco betting prosagain

977
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:07,320
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978
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:10,480
Speaker 1: dollars deposit match on your first deposit today, and don't

979
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 1: forget about bet MGM, the King of sportsbooks. That'll do

980
00:46:13,520 --> 00:46:15,319
Speaker 1: it for us. But the story of the game goes

981
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 1: on for Freedman and for Pat. I'm Joey p. We'll

982
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:19,760
Speaker 1: see you next time, kids,