1
00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:05,160
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

2
00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:06,880
Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

3
00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:14,920
Speaker 2: All Right, here we go, there growing in Joe, spectacular cat.

4
00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:17,079
Speaker 2: I'm saying it's a cash touch down.

5
00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:20,920
Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

6
00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:23,720
Speaker 3: go to win. Oh my god, that's incredible.

7
00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:25,800
Speaker 2: Big Banks, I'm all banks.

8
00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:26,880
Speaker 3: I like to make money.

9
00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:31,320
Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate kabaka.

10
00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:40,120
Speaker 2: And we are underway. Hello everyone, Welcome back to another

11
00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:43,440
Speaker 2: NFL episode of the Action Network Podcast. I'm Matthew Friedman,

12
00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:46,000
Speaker 2: the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs. Chris Raybaughn is

13
00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:48,479
Speaker 2: on vacation but still on the pod as always as

14
00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,120
Speaker 2: Sean Corner. Seawan is the Action Network director of Predictive

15
00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:53,640
Speaker 2: Analytics and one of the top end season fantasy football

16
00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:56,600
Speaker 2: rankers for the past half decade. In joining us, is

17
00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:59,320
Speaker 2: the editor in chief of FanDuel and Number five and

18
00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:02,160
Speaker 2: the host of Late Round podcast and Living the Stream

19
00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:06,400
Speaker 2: JJ zachareson JJ, thanks for joining us. How's it going? Yeah, guys,

20
00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:08,839
Speaker 2: thanks for having me on. I appreciate it. Yeah, it's

21
00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:10,959
Speaker 2: great to have you on the show. To continue our

22
00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:14,839
Speaker 2: position by position multi episode breakdown. I thought about having

23
00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:17,600
Speaker 2: you on the show to talk about quarterbacks, but really,

24
00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:19,920
Speaker 2: I think there's no one else who could talk about

25
00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,920
Speaker 2: tight ends the way that you can with your living

26
00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:26,280
Speaker 2: the stream type of perspective. But for quarterbacks we had

27
00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:29,679
Speaker 2: on Jeff Ratcliffe and Evan Silva. Those were two great episodes.

28
00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,800
Speaker 2: Everyone be sure to check those out on Apple podcasts

29
00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:35,120
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcast, and a rate in

30
00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,320
Speaker 2: review would be appreciated. In this episode, we're going to

31
00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:41,440
Speaker 2: discuss with JJ his basic approach to the tight end

32
00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:44,600
Speaker 2: position for projections and fantasy, and then do a full

33
00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:48,400
Speaker 2: breakdown of the current tight end landscape in twenty nineteen

34
00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:53,600
Speaker 2: fantasy football drafts. JJ kind of big picture like, what

35
00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:56,280
Speaker 2: is your approach to the tight end position? I know

36
00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:59,880
Speaker 2: that you've popularized the idea of streaming at the position.

37
00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:02,200
Speaker 2: Is that the way that you think you're going to

38
00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:03,760
Speaker 2: approach the position this year?

39
00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:06,000
Speaker 1: With streaming the tight end position, it's a lot more

40
00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,040
Speaker 1: difficult than that quarterback. I think that's the first thing

41
00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:10,679
Speaker 1: to throw out there. There's a lot more variance, there's

42
00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:13,160
Speaker 1: not as many usable pieces out there on your waiver.

43
00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:13,600
Speaker 3: Wire each week.

44
00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:16,639
Speaker 1: There is a luck factor to a degree, because obviously

45
00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:18,359
Speaker 1: the good thing is that if a tight end finds

46
00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:20,200
Speaker 1: the end zone. Let's say, then all of a sudden,

47
00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:22,840
Speaker 1: he can be usable in that given week. But generally speaking,

48
00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,960
Speaker 1: I do have a weight on tight end approach, and

49
00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:27,280
Speaker 1: a lot of that has to do with if you

50
00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:30,160
Speaker 1: look at historical average draft position data and you look

51
00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:32,480
Speaker 1: at that versus the amount of points scored by those

52
00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:35,080
Speaker 1: players at their ADPs, there's not a lot of correlation.

53
00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:38,320
Speaker 1: In fact, there's an R squared of basically zero when

54
00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,079
Speaker 1: you look at top twelve tight ends. So essentially what

55
00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,280
Speaker 1: that tells us is that there's no real difference and

56
00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:46,120
Speaker 1: kind of odd to think this way, there's no real

57
00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:49,240
Speaker 1: difference between what you're getting in those top twelve tight ends. Now,

58
00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,000
Speaker 1: with that being said, it's really the middle round tight

59
00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:55,320
Speaker 1: ends historically that have really dropped that correlation down, because

60
00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:57,200
Speaker 1: if you look at top six tight ends, there is

61
00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:59,720
Speaker 1: a correlation which is telling you that early round tight

62
00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:02,280
Speaker 1: ends are giving you some sort of advantage over the

63
00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:04,640
Speaker 1: rest of the position. But what we're seeing though, is

64
00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:07,000
Speaker 1: that the tight end eleven, the tight end twelve, the

65
00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:09,639
Speaker 1: you know, George Kittle last season, the Jared Cooks of

66
00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:11,280
Speaker 1: last season, and so on. I mean, you can go

67
00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:14,000
Speaker 1: even deeper than tight end twelve. There are tight ends

68
00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:16,880
Speaker 1: that are breaking out every year, and as a result

69
00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:18,760
Speaker 1: of that, you know, if you are fortunate to find

70
00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:20,720
Speaker 1: that tight end, to have that tight end, then you're

71
00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:24,040
Speaker 1: obviously not spending a lot of draft capital on that player,

72
00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:26,200
Speaker 1: so the opportunity cost isn't as high, and so it's

73
00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,760
Speaker 1: a little bit easier to take that on. So I

74
00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,480
Speaker 1: do think that overall, though, the approach that I generally

75
00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:34,880
Speaker 1: take is either get the elite guy, an elite guy

76
00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:37,560
Speaker 1: maybe you know this season obviously, I think Kelsey's just

77
00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:39,320
Speaker 1: kind of there and it makes a lot of sense,

78
00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:41,680
Speaker 1: or just wait and wait and wait and try to

79
00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:44,920
Speaker 1: find that athletic breakout that that seems to happen every

80
00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:45,520
Speaker 1: single season.

81
00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:47,600
Speaker 2: Sean, what are your thoughts on that? Do you have

82
00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:50,480
Speaker 2: a similar philosophy in terms of going for a high

83
00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:53,640
Speaker 2: end guy or just waiting. Are you fine with taking

84
00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:54,880
Speaker 2: someone in the middle tier?

85
00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,160
Speaker 5: Well, you know, especially this year, tight ends, you know,

86
00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:00,200
Speaker 5: the only position where I'm pretty much in line with

87
00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,200
Speaker 5: the ADP. So I kind of just let the draft

88
00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:04,320
Speaker 5: come to me. I'm not as brave as JJ. I

89
00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:07,720
Speaker 5: do not want to be streaming tight end, especially this year,

90
00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:09,640
Speaker 5: so I do try to target, you know, one of

91
00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:11,880
Speaker 5: the top three tight ends, but we can get that later.

92
00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:14,800
Speaker 5: But I think the mid tier one is a lot

93
00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,240
Speaker 5: better than last year. You know, we had the ARP

94
00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:19,640
Speaker 5: tiers that I called it, where we had like Jimmy Graham,

95
00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:22,400
Speaker 5: Delaney Walker and Greg Olsen, and I just was like, Okay,

96
00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:24,240
Speaker 5: you have to get a top three tight end this

97
00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:26,960
Speaker 5: year because you can't attack this mid tight end one tier.

98
00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:28,480
Speaker 4: But this year it's a lot deeper. I think.

99
00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:30,719
Speaker 5: So regardless, you're going to end up with a decent

100
00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:33,120
Speaker 5: tight end this year. But I'm not fully punting it

101
00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:35,960
Speaker 5: and planning on streaming. But I think there is still

102
00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:38,200
Speaker 5: some credence to taking a top three tight end this year.

103
00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:42,640
Speaker 2: JJ, when you're looking at the predictive factors that will

104
00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:44,440
Speaker 2: give you some sort of insight into how a tight

105
00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:47,000
Speaker 2: end might do this year. What are the stats you're

106
00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:47,839
Speaker 2: looking at.

107
00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:49,839
Speaker 1: I think that it's more of a process in general

108
00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:53,360
Speaker 1: for me overall that's not necessarily specific to tight ends.

109
00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:55,440
Speaker 1: I mean, parts of it are specific to tight ends,

110
00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:58,440
Speaker 1: but I'm very much someone who uses projections to not

111
00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:02,640
Speaker 1: just be per sisse, but I enjoy the building of

112
00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:05,840
Speaker 1: the projections to really see where that opportunity lies because

113
00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:07,479
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a lot of variants in whatever you

114
00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:08,360
Speaker 1: build with the projection.

115
00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:10,919
Speaker 3: So, like most things fantasy related, you want volume.

116
00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:13,960
Speaker 1: You want the player to be talented and good because

117
00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:16,200
Speaker 1: you want him to keep his job essentially, and you

118
00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:17,479
Speaker 1: want him to be in a good offense.

119
00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,839
Speaker 3: Like those are the three keys for anything fantasy.

120
00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:22,440
Speaker 1: Related that you would want out of a player, but

121
00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:24,880
Speaker 1: with tight ends, you know, I think the added element

122
00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:28,239
Speaker 1: to that is I'm generally targeting the the uber athletic types,

123
00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:29,719
Speaker 1: especially in the later rounds.

124
00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:32,360
Speaker 3: Those are generally the players that are going to break out.

125
00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:34,599
Speaker 1: You're not going to find as many breakout guys who

126
00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:37,440
Speaker 1: aren't you know of, not the Gronk build, because no

127
00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:39,320
Speaker 1: one's like Gronk, but you want someone who has.

128
00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:40,839
Speaker 3: That that type of athleticism.

129
00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:44,160
Speaker 1: Building projections allows you to see the path to volume,

130
00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:46,400
Speaker 1: the path to upside, and when you match that with

131
00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:50,880
Speaker 1: hopefully a good offense and this athleticism, that really can

132
00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:52,960
Speaker 1: help you spot one of those breakout guys you would

133
00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:53,720
Speaker 1: be drafting later.

134
00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:58,599
Speaker 2: So you just mentioned targeting athletic guys later in the draft.

135
00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:01,080
Speaker 2: Who's the one tied D and you've gotten the most

136
00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:03,359
Speaker 2: of in the drafts you've done so far, you know,

137
00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:06,039
Speaker 2: to Shann's point earlier about the middle tier tight ends,

138
00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:07,960
Speaker 2: or like the second tier if you will, or maybe

139
00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:09,479
Speaker 2: the third if you want to put Kelsey in his own.

140
00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:11,440
Speaker 3: It is a different season.

141
00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:13,520
Speaker 1: It feels like at the tight end position than what

142
00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:16,160
Speaker 1: we've seen historically, because usually we're just seeing like the

143
00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:18,800
Speaker 1: Greg Olsen types, who we know are going to give

144
00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:21,000
Speaker 1: you a floor but not a ceiling in those middle rounds.

145
00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:22,320
Speaker 3: This year's completely different.

146
00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:25,039
Speaker 1: It's like the markets sort of corrected itself and it's

147
00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:26,960
Speaker 1: brought Oj Howard there, who I love. You know, It's

148
00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:29,560
Speaker 1: brought Hunter Henry there and Evan Ingram and there are

149
00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:31,920
Speaker 1: guys that I actually feel a lot more comfortable targeting there.

150
00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:33,720
Speaker 3: But in that tier I love Oj Howard. I'll just

151
00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:34,440
Speaker 3: throw that out there.

152
00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:36,159
Speaker 1: But if you want to look at the later round

153
00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:38,800
Speaker 1: tight end, then I seem to be targeting a decent bit.

154
00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:42,640
Speaker 1: It's Mica sick. It's really just because of the athleticism profile.

155
00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:46,360
Speaker 1: The volume could be there hypothetically if things break away.

156
00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:48,200
Speaker 1: I mean, there's not a lot of competition for targets

157
00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:48,719
Speaker 1: in Miami.

158
00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:49,200
Speaker 4: You know.

159
00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:50,200
Speaker 3: The downside is.

160
00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:53,040
Speaker 1: The offensive firepower in that offense because we know that

161
00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,960
Speaker 1: it could get ugly down there in Miami. But you

162
00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:59,960
Speaker 1: know it's a second year player who has that opportunity

163
00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:02,960
Speaker 1: to really break free, just given that profile that he

164
00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:05,000
Speaker 1: had and even the draft capital spent to a degree

165
00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:07,360
Speaker 1: coming out of school. All right, Well, when you mentioned

166
00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:11,080
Speaker 1: looking for a late round athletic guy, GASICKI was the

167
00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,160
Speaker 1: guy who came to my mind. And so if I

168
00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:15,120
Speaker 1: had to ask you, who is the tight end or

169
00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:17,480
Speaker 1: group of tight ends you're looking to fade the most,

170
00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:19,560
Speaker 1: just shooting from the hip, I would imagine it's like

171
00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:24,000
Speaker 1: this whole slew of dad runners, the AARP tier that

172
00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,520
Speaker 1: we have. I imagine those are the guys you are least

173
00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:30,360
Speaker 1: likely to have on your rosters. But correct me if

174
00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:30,800
Speaker 1: I'm wrong.

175
00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:33,120
Speaker 3: So I think that I can go two different directions here.

176
00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:35,520
Speaker 1: I definitely agree like the guys who you know, like

177
00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:38,160
Speaker 1: the Jimmy Grahams of the world, even the Greg Olsen's

178
00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:41,280
Speaker 1: to a degree, I can see a scenario where they

179
00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:44,120
Speaker 1: hit value at their ADP very very easily.

180
00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:45,960
Speaker 3: But I don't think that they're going to be difference

181
00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:47,600
Speaker 3: makers week to week. I don't think that it's gonna

182
00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:48,160
Speaker 3: matter that much.

183
00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:50,920
Speaker 1: Even though you know Jimmy Graham has positive touchdown regression

184
00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,000
Speaker 1: coming and Jimmy Graham was six at the tight end

185
00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:55,360
Speaker 1: position last year in target share. Somehow, you know, they're

186
00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:57,480
Speaker 1: just not players that I think have that elite of

187
00:07:57,480 --> 00:07:58,960
Speaker 1: a ceiling. I think, if I want to go a

188
00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:01,360
Speaker 1: little bit bolder here, just just for fun, just a

189
00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:03,640
Speaker 1: little hot take, I think the guy that I would

190
00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:04,880
Speaker 1: say that I'm fading.

191
00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:06,040
Speaker 3: Would be zach Ertz.

192
00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:10,080
Speaker 1: It's mostly because of cost here, but the basic premise

193
00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:13,480
Speaker 1: is that his ADP is really being anchored I think

194
00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:15,800
Speaker 1: by what he did last season when I think that

195
00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:19,480
Speaker 1: the expectation for zach Ertz entering twenty nineteen should be

196
00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:21,640
Speaker 1: a little bit more like his twenty seventeen season. So

197
00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:23,640
Speaker 1: I do think that zach Ertz has a fine floor.

198
00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:25,920
Speaker 1: I mean, I think that's really hard to argue otherwise.

199
00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:28,480
Speaker 1: But it's really this opportunity cost that you take on

200
00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:31,760
Speaker 1: when drafting Ertz. But a lot went Ertz's way in

201
00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,280
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen. You know, there was not a lot of

202
00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:36,040
Speaker 1: competition for targets in that offense.

203
00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:38,199
Speaker 3: When we saw Golden Tate join.

204
00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,880
Speaker 1: The Eagles last year, zach Ertz saw his target share

205
00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,160
Speaker 1: drop by about six percentage points, so it was a

206
00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,520
Speaker 1: hit whenever he saw more competition once alshon Jeffery Also,

207
00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:49,360
Speaker 1: remember he started the season off banged up. Now you

208
00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:52,120
Speaker 1: have d Jacks coming to town, Dallas, Goddard being another

209
00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,760
Speaker 1: year into the league, Miles Sanders can catch passes out

210
00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:56,040
Speaker 1: of the backfield. We don't know how they're going to

211
00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:59,800
Speaker 1: use him exactly. And then the Eagles themselves threw almost

212
00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:02,480
Speaker 1: six hundred pass attempts last season, when the year before

213
00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:04,280
Speaker 1: that they had five hundred and sixty four. I think

214
00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:06,439
Speaker 1: we would all agree that the Eagles are one of

215
00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:08,840
Speaker 1: the best teams in football entering the season, so that

216
00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,200
Speaker 1: win total hits. If they're a good team, it could

217
00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:13,080
Speaker 1: be a little bit more run heavy. And if zach

218
00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:15,319
Speaker 1: Ertz's target share drops a little bit, you know where

219
00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:17,560
Speaker 1: it was compared to where it was last season, I

220
00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:20,160
Speaker 1: think we would see his numbers more in line with

221
00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:22,520
Speaker 1: what he did in twenty seventeen. And as a result

222
00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:24,080
Speaker 1: of that, I just think his ADP is a little

223
00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:25,120
Speaker 1: bit too high.

224
00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:27,920
Speaker 2: If that's the expectation, we'll kind of get into the

225
00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:29,800
Speaker 2: big three. Here are you on the train of having

226
00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,760
Speaker 2: Kittle ranked above Ertz. If you're kind of looking to

227
00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:33,959
Speaker 2: get away from Ertz.

228
00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:35,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do. I do have Kittle ahead of Ertz.

229
00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:38,480
Speaker 1: I understand the argument for Ertz for sure, like I

230
00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,440
Speaker 1: can't follow anyone for drafting him. Where he's being drafted

231
00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:43,439
Speaker 1: is just the way that I sort of have seen things.

232
00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:46,079
Speaker 1: But yeah, with Kittle, he's definitely gonna regress from the

233
00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:48,600
Speaker 1: yards after catch standpoint. But he did underperform in the

234
00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:50,760
Speaker 1: touchdown column last year. You know, he only had two

235
00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:53,680
Speaker 1: red zone touchdowns on nineteen red zone targets last year.

236
00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:56,040
Speaker 1: So with with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, you know, you

237
00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:58,920
Speaker 1: could see George Kittle with with a similar target share

238
00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:01,199
Speaker 1: and maybe convert some of those red zone looks a

239
00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:03,360
Speaker 1: little bit better and overall just score more.

240
00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:05,160
Speaker 3: Look, he was only a second year guy.

241
00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:07,600
Speaker 1: You know, we're looking at Zach Ertz entering his seventh season,

242
00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:11,040
Speaker 1: and of all Zach Ertz's years in the league, last year,

243
00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:13,160
Speaker 1: if you were to pinpoint one season that was unlike

244
00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:14,920
Speaker 1: the others, it was last season. That would be his

245
00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:19,600
Speaker 1: outlier season. Whereas George Kittle has a great ceiling. We

246
00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:22,520
Speaker 1: know that he's uber athletic. He looked unbelievable last season.

247
00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:25,200
Speaker 1: So I think that there's just a better ceiling inherently

248
00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:26,880
Speaker 1: with George Kittle, which is why I would rank him

249
00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:28,319
Speaker 1: ahead of Birds and Sean.

250
00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:31,920
Speaker 2: I believe that in the Action Network rankings you also

251
00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:35,720
Speaker 2: have Kittle ahead of Ertz. I might be wrong on that,

252
00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:37,080
Speaker 2: but where are you coming down?

253
00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:39,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I have him basically even, and I just

254
00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:43,280
Speaker 5: make it as simple as a standard scoring format. I

255
00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:46,280
Speaker 5: have Kittle ahead, and any sort of PPR, I have

256
00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:48,599
Speaker 5: ert slightly ahead. But you know, I think both of

257
00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:51,560
Speaker 5: them are sort of critical picks because after them, I

258
00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,360
Speaker 5: do have a pretty significant drop off about like thirty

259
00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:56,480
Speaker 5: points or so to the next tier. So I just

260
00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:59,120
Speaker 5: think that I think getting either one of them is

261
00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:02,400
Speaker 5: crucial to my draft plan, just because I sort of

262
00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:05,960
Speaker 5: look at the drop off value between certain picks. So

263
00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,520
Speaker 5: they have one of the highest drop off values in

264
00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:11,600
Speaker 5: my model. And by taking them, you know, by taking Kelsey,

265
00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:13,640
Speaker 5: you know, in the first or second round, you're kind

266
00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:16,160
Speaker 5: of sacrificing getting a stud running back or receiver. So

267
00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:18,680
Speaker 5: I do think Ertz and Kitt'll fit my plan of

268
00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:21,440
Speaker 5: still getting a you know, a stud wide receiver and

269
00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:23,520
Speaker 5: running back and then still locking in a top three

270
00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:23,920
Speaker 5: tight end.

271
00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:26,640
Speaker 4: So I've been targeting either one of these two quite.

272
00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:28,440
Speaker 2: A bit, all right, j J. I want to ask

273
00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,880
Speaker 2: you two questions. One, I am assuming that Kelsey is

274
00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:34,640
Speaker 2: kind of the clear number one, but how early would

275
00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:37,280
Speaker 2: you take him in a draft? And then two out

276
00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:40,280
Speaker 2: of these top three guys, because as Sean mentioned, I

277
00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,320
Speaker 2: think there is a pretty big tear drop between these

278
00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:47,280
Speaker 2: three and OJ Howard or whoever you have coming in fourth.

279
00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:50,240
Speaker 2: So the second question is, out of these three guys

280
00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:53,520
Speaker 2: at their ADP, which one do you want the most?

281
00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:56,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's a really good question. I think

282
00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:59,280
Speaker 1: Kelsey is in his own tier. I haven't valued more

283
00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:02,000
Speaker 1: as like a one two turn guy just given the

284
00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:04,600
Speaker 1: opportunity cost involved there whenever you draft him, as Sean

285
00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:06,679
Speaker 1: just noted. And you know it's really you know, if

286
00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:09,760
Speaker 1: you look at a VBD equation, a value based drafting equation,

287
00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:12,959
Speaker 1: you can make the case that Kelsey can be a

288
00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:17,520
Speaker 1: draft him anywhere in the draft realistic and so so so,

289
00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:19,960
Speaker 1: I I understand the Kelsey love for sure. It's just

290
00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,760
Speaker 1: it's it's a matter of me feeling comfortable whenever I'm

291
00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:24,920
Speaker 1: you know, giving away and not not getting one of

292
00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:27,839
Speaker 1: those higher and demand positions when drafting him with.

293
00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:28,720
Speaker 3: Ertz and Kittle.

294
00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:30,920
Speaker 1: You know, like I just said, I like Kittle more,

295
00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:32,480
Speaker 1: so we can just go with Kittle here and roll

296
00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:35,880
Speaker 1: with Kittle. It really depends on where things break in

297
00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:38,280
Speaker 1: the draft. If you're getting an Ertz or a Kittle

298
00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:40,040
Speaker 1: in the early third, it's a lot easy.

299
00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,400
Speaker 3: It's a it's a lot easier pill to swallow.

300
00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:43,960
Speaker 1: Than if you were to get them in the mid second,

301
00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:46,679
Speaker 1: where that opportunity cost is higher because you're getting once

302
00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:49,000
Speaker 1: you get into that third round. This season, there is

303
00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:51,840
Speaker 1: a drop basically at both running back and wide receiver.

304
00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:53,240
Speaker 3: You know, once the once.

305
00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:55,560
Speaker 1: Basically Nick Chubb goes off the board, generally that's the

306
00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:58,600
Speaker 1: the RB twelve ish. Once he goes off the board once,

307
00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:00,680
Speaker 1: like an Antonio Brown goes off the board, who you

308
00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:03,240
Speaker 1: know has that wide receiver one upside. That's when you

309
00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:05,600
Speaker 1: can feel a little bit more comfortable drafted. Not not

310
00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:08,360
Speaker 1: to say that that, I know, I know we have

311
00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:11,319
Speaker 1: an ab hater on the show right now, but uh,

312
00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:15,080
Speaker 1: you know, just that's about the point where I would

313
00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:16,880
Speaker 1: feel more comfortable drafting those guys.

314
00:13:16,880 --> 00:13:19,320
Speaker 3: So which one I would I take?

315
00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:21,679
Speaker 1: I think I would just go with a go big

316
00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:24,760
Speaker 1: or go home strategy and just go with Kelsey. But

317
00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:27,360
Speaker 1: if those other guys drop into that early third all

318
00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:30,439
Speaker 1: I'll be more comfortable selecting them as opposed to the MIDSEC.

319
00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:33,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, so a couple thoughts. I'm actually going to be

320
00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:35,920
Speaker 2: on vacation during the wide receiver episodes, which is kind

321
00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:39,240
Speaker 2: of sad but also a good thing because for someone

322
00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:41,880
Speaker 2: who is down on Antonio Brown, I actually have him

323
00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:44,600
Speaker 2: projected way higher than I thought I would this year,

324
00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:47,640
Speaker 2: but I think there is significant downside with him. But Sean,

325
00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:49,640
Speaker 2: I want to kick at you for the question that

326
00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:53,200
Speaker 2: I asked JJ. These three guys at their current cost

327
00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:55,960
Speaker 2: based on ADP, which one are you looking to take

328
00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:58,559
Speaker 2: basically the third guy, whoever it is, who falls to

329
00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:00,000
Speaker 2: that third position in your draft.

330
00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:01,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, pretty much.

331
00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:03,920
Speaker 5: And we actually are in the middle of our Action

332
00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,960
Speaker 5: Network mock draft and I had the eighth overall pick

333
00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:11,320
Speaker 5: and I definitely considered taking Kelsey there, but I pass

334
00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:13,719
Speaker 5: up and took Hopkins. But I would take Kelsey as

335
00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:16,319
Speaker 5: soon as the eighth overall pick. I think it makes

336
00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:18,640
Speaker 5: a lot of sense, but I decided to pass on that,

337
00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:21,680
Speaker 5: and then I actually ended up getting Ertz coming back

338
00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:25,160
Speaker 5: in round three. So yeah, I'm I'm cool just taking

339
00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:28,360
Speaker 5: whichever you know, Kittle or Ertz falls to me in

340
00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:31,520
Speaker 5: the third round because, like I said, it allows me

341
00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:34,760
Speaker 5: to use my first two picks on either two stud

342
00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:37,240
Speaker 5: wide receivers or mixing the stud running back. So I think,

343
00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:39,640
Speaker 5: you know, Kelsey comes at a lot of cost, and

344
00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:43,000
Speaker 5: you know, he's so valuable that if anything happens to him,

345
00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:46,000
Speaker 5: I'm I'm not confident that I could just you know,

346
00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:48,880
Speaker 5: stream out tight end the rest of the year. So

347
00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:51,680
Speaker 5: he's you know, you're putting all your eggs into the

348
00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:52,560
Speaker 5: Kelsey basket.

349
00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:53,560
Speaker 4: So I don't like doing that.

350
00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:57,400
Speaker 5: I do like using my Ncson management to win championships,

351
00:14:57,440 --> 00:14:59,720
Speaker 5: so I don't like putting myself in that position. So

352
00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:03,040
Speaker 5: but definitely round three getting either Killer or I think

353
00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:03,880
Speaker 5: makes the most sense.

354
00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:07,160
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about a trio of guys who

355
00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:09,840
Speaker 2: could potentially break out in their third year. And arguably

356
00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:12,320
Speaker 2: some of these guys have already kind of broken out

357
00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:14,720
Speaker 2: or have been right there and at this point are

358
00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:18,320
Speaker 2: kind of priced as if they are going to continue

359
00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:20,680
Speaker 2: to provide a lot of production. And I'm talking about

360
00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:24,880
Speaker 2: OJ Howard, who's going around rounds four or five, Evan

361
00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:29,480
Speaker 2: Ingram rounds five and six, and David and Joku rounds

362
00:15:29,520 --> 00:15:33,280
Speaker 2: seven and eight. Three third year guys, all of whom

363
00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:36,640
Speaker 2: could conceivably finish in the top three top four at

364
00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:41,040
Speaker 2: the position JJ you mentioned. Oj Howard is someone who

365
00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:45,200
Speaker 2: definitely intrigued you. Do you have any thoughts on those

366
00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:47,920
Speaker 2: three as a group, which one really stands out the

367
00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:48,400
Speaker 2: most to you?

368
00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:49,400
Speaker 3: Yeah?

369
00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:52,720
Speaker 1: Oj Howard I think has a pretty nice ceiling this season,

370
00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:55,760
Speaker 1: not just because there's not a lot of competition for

371
00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:58,960
Speaker 1: targets there. It's really just Godwin and Mike Evans. But

372
00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:00,560
Speaker 1: if something were to happen to one of those guys,

373
00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:02,760
Speaker 1: if an injury occurs, then you could see even more

374
00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:06,080
Speaker 1: volume upside with OJ Howard. So I actually my projections

375
00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:10,680
Speaker 1: have Howard in his own tier pretty much ahead of

376
00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:13,920
Speaker 1: both Hunter Henry and Evan Ingram. So I think that

377
00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:17,880
Speaker 1: he's the clear guy of that group. I don't really have,

378
00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:21,640
Speaker 1: you know, the concerns around the Bruce Arians tight end

379
00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:24,320
Speaker 1: usage and what he did in Arizona. You know, if

380
00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:27,040
Speaker 1: you look back, he really his best tight end has

381
00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:29,680
Speaker 1: arguably been Heath Miller throughout his his coaching career, A

382
00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:32,400
Speaker 1: recent coaching career. It's not like heith Miller was horrific

383
00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:34,680
Speaker 1: when when Bruce Arians was there. But I just think

384
00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,480
Speaker 1: there's a lot of there's a lot of confirmation bias

385
00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,080
Speaker 1: that happens whenever folks are looking at coordinator data. I mean,

386
00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:43,560
Speaker 1: coordinator data is very important and you can utilize that.

387
00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:46,160
Speaker 1: I utilize that more though at a higher level as

388
00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:49,440
Speaker 1: opposed to the positional level. You know, it's more so

389
00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:52,600
Speaker 1: looking at ten you know, past to rush ratio tendencies

390
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:54,280
Speaker 1: and what they do in neutral game scripts. You know,

391
00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:56,960
Speaker 1: we know that Brian Schottenheimer, for instance, loves to run

392
00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:59,840
Speaker 1: the football. That doesn't mean that whatever Brian Schottenheimer's offense

393
00:16:59,920 --> 00:17:02,000
Speaker 1: is did with their wide receiver twos, I'm all of

394
00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:03,800
Speaker 1: a sudden going to just focus on and look at

395
00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:07,879
Speaker 1: the wide receiver two on Seattle in Seattle's offense. So

396
00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:11,679
Speaker 1: you know, with OJ Howard you can easily make the argument.

397
00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:13,879
Speaker 1: The argument is it shouldn't even be an argument that

398
00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:16,520
Speaker 1: Oj Howard is the best tight end talent that Bruce

399
00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:19,320
Speaker 1: Arians has ever coached. So I'm not really that worried

400
00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:21,200
Speaker 1: about all of that. I think that he's in a really,

401
00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:22,560
Speaker 1: really good spot to break out this.

402
00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:27,920
Speaker 2: Year, Sean. In my projections, which you can find out

403
00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:31,600
Speaker 2: in the optimized tool at Action Network and my projections,

404
00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:36,520
Speaker 2: I do have OJ Howard basically in this tier unto himself,

405
00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:41,159
Speaker 2: pretty clearly after George Kittle, but above everyone else, you know,

406
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:44,000
Speaker 2: like who might follow, like Hunter, Henry Erki Bron, Austin Hooper,

407
00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:47,200
Speaker 2: whoever it is that you have after him. How are

408
00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:50,120
Speaker 2: you kind of tiering OJ Howard?

409
00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:51,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm similar.

410
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:54,479
Speaker 5: I would definitely consider him to be part of a

411
00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:58,000
Speaker 5: mini tier, and people are drafting that way. Usually you

412
00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:01,760
Speaker 5: know Ersten Kittle, you see some thiss, but Howard's typically

413
00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:03,960
Speaker 5: going fourth in the drafts and then after that you

414
00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:07,400
Speaker 5: kind of see people mix it up. So Howard's definitely

415
00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:10,920
Speaker 5: in the mini tier for me, and I do like him.

416
00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,639
Speaker 5: I've said I'm very bullish on the Bucks passing a

417
00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:17,960
Speaker 5: game this year, and Howard's my top tight end and

418
00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,760
Speaker 5: yards per catch I think he averaged about close to

419
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:25,000
Speaker 5: seventeen last year, and it seems like it's somewhat sustainable.

420
00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:27,600
Speaker 5: He had a very high a dot total point four

421
00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,879
Speaker 5: yards and still had a lot of yards per catch

422
00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 5: perception at six point two, So I actually only have

423
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,840
Speaker 5: him regressing down to fourteen yards per catch. I think

424
00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:40,520
Speaker 5: the loss of Deshaun Jackson, especially Adam Humphries, opens the

425
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:43,880
Speaker 5: door for him to you know, this is year three

426
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:46,159
Speaker 5: for him, so this has when Titans really start to

427
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,480
Speaker 5: break out. So I'm big on Howard and I think

428
00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,080
Speaker 5: he makes a lot of sense as the fourth tight

429
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:53,479
Speaker 5: end off the board. If I don't get him, I

430
00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:56,160
Speaker 5: typically just wait until later in the draft. So he's

431
00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,919
Speaker 5: almost like the end of the elite tight ends that

432
00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:01,200
Speaker 5: I'm targeting those us JJ.

433
00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 2: Out of the remaining two guys in this third year trio,

434
00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:07,160
Speaker 2: Evan Ingram, David and Joku, who do you have ice

435
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,080
Speaker 2: the most affinity for, because there are significant questions about

436
00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:13,879
Speaker 2: both guys and they're kind of weirdly tied to Odell

437
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:17,600
Speaker 2: Beckham Junior. There's a question how good the Giants offense

438
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,119
Speaker 2: is going to be With the departure of Odo Beckham

439
00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:22,160
Speaker 2: Junior and then the addition of Golden Tate, and then

440
00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:24,919
Speaker 2: with Tate there and then Sirling Shepard, you basically have

441
00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,280
Speaker 2: all of these guys fighting for targets in the middle

442
00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:29,440
Speaker 2: of the field. How is that going to impact Evan

443
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:32,960
Speaker 2: Ingram and then within Joku in the addition of Odell

444
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:36,040
Speaker 2: Beckham Junior in Cleveland, there are questions as to how

445
00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:39,080
Speaker 2: many targets he's going to get. How are you looking

446
00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 2: at those two guys?

447
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:42,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think it's a it's a really

448
00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:45,720
Speaker 1: interesting question with Evan Ingram, especially just because the Giants

449
00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:47,960
Speaker 1: just just gobbled up as many slot receivers as they

450
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:51,080
Speaker 1: possibly could this offseason, seemingly, and that's obviously the area

451
00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:52,520
Speaker 1: of the field that Evan Ingram can dominate.

452
00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:54,280
Speaker 3: But I wouldn't be surprised if they split him out

453
00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:54,919
Speaker 3: a little bit.

454
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:58,080
Speaker 1: Just because he's a he's a he's a freak physically,

455
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:01,120
Speaker 1: So I think that that really with Evan Ingram, you're

456
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:04,920
Speaker 1: just buying volume. My fear with Ingram and where he's

457
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,240
Speaker 1: being drafted, Like, for instance, I would take Hunter Henry

458
00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,359
Speaker 1: over Evan Ingram just because I think the upside is

459
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 1: there a little bit more if things were to come together. So,

460
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 1: you know, with Evan Ingram, it's it's it's really a

461
00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:18,159
Speaker 1: volume play. And I think that there has to be

462
00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 1: some fear as well, uh, with with Daniel Jones sitting

463
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,080
Speaker 1: there and and potentially playing.

464
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:24,480
Speaker 3: And us not really knowing what that's gonna look like.

465
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 1: I don't think that the all these Slock guys are

466
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:32,360
Speaker 1: going to necessarily impact him tremendously. I'm assuming my assumption

467
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,360
Speaker 1: with the Giants is more that Golden Tate will play

468
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,919
Speaker 1: in the slot mostly and they're they're gonna move Sterling

469
00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 1: Shepherd more on the outside. It's not an ideal situation,

470
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,800
Speaker 1: but that's just it makes sense. You know, whether they

471
00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:46,520
Speaker 1: do that or not, we'll see. But overall, you know,

472
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 1: there's only so many miles defeat in this offense in

473
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:51,440
Speaker 1: general that I think Evan Ingram can walk into into

474
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 1: some volume with David and Joku.

475
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,360
Speaker 3: You know, the one thing that that I think is really.

476
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:59,160
Speaker 1: Important with UH, with Cleveland and with a team, any

477
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:02,520
Speaker 1: team that adds an elite pass catcher like Cleveland did,

478
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:06,159
Speaker 1: Odell Beckham is going to demand a massively high target

479
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 1: share no matter where he's at. And I think that that,

480
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:10,479
Speaker 1: you know, if you're building out projections or if you're

481
00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 1: looking at things from that perspective, there's not going to

482
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 1: be given take with Odell Beckham's target share. Odell Beckham's

483
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,119
Speaker 1: target share is going to be high. So if you

484
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 1: really just think of this as a as a pie,

485
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 1: if you add in a twenty eight percent target share

486
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 1: let's say, or whatever you project for Odell Beckham, that's

487
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:28,720
Speaker 1: going to impact the volume of every other player in

488
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:31,479
Speaker 1: that offense. Sure, they might become more efficient, but I

489
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 1: care far more about volume than efficiency and fantasy football.

490
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 1: With David and Joku, I think the fear is there

491
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 1: for the red zone looks might not be a strong

492
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 1: form just because you have another player there. I think

493
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 1: the fear is there that his volume might not be

494
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 1: as strong with Obj there. I just think overall, it's

495
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,720
Speaker 1: gonna be a He's going to be a fairly unpredictable asset,

496
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 1: and he's someone that I would rather target in a

497
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,400
Speaker 1: best ball league as opposed to a regular redraft.

498
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 2: Leat Sean, what are your thoughts on Ingram and in joking.

499
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,919
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I'm pretty much in line with JJ on

500
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 5: and Ingram. I've been calling. You know, Daniel Jones will

501
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 5: likely be starting towards the end of the year, that's

502
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:07,840
Speaker 5: the fantasy playoffs, so that is.

503
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:09,320
Speaker 4: A concern for me right now.

504
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,040
Speaker 5: I have Eli Manning projected for about two hundred and

505
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:16,359
Speaker 5: fifty five yards a game and Daniel Jones tentatively around

506
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,159
Speaker 5: two hundred and fifteen to two hundred and twenty.

507
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 4: So you know, when you.

508
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,880
Speaker 5: Shrink the passing pie, it's can affect everybody. So those

509
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,919
Speaker 5: those thirty five to forty yards potentially that they'll be losing.

510
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 5: Ingram will take a hit because you rely so much

511
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 5: on yardage and volume. So with that in mind, you know,

512
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,639
Speaker 5: I play fans football to win, so I do factor

513
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 5: in certain things like that for the Fantasy football playoffs,

514
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 5: so I'm hesitant to take him this early right now.

515
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:44,359
Speaker 5: And then Joku's same thing. You know, Odell Beckham will

516
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 5: command a huge target share, but Baker Mayfield has shown

517
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 5: that he can spread it around. So you know, some

518
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 5: of these profile targets like Joeku and Callaway could see

519
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:55,959
Speaker 5: some spike weeks, but I think in general they're going

520
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:59,199
Speaker 5: to be inconsistent. So, like JJ said, Joku's more of

521
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 5: a best ball guy for me. He's gonna have some

522
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,479
Speaker 5: big games, but it's gonna come with some duds. And

523
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:05,719
Speaker 5: you know, I don't really want to spend too much

524
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 5: draft capital on a tight end. I can't really rely

525
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,120
Speaker 5: on week to week in that regard. So there's better

526
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,880
Speaker 5: tight ends in this range that I'm targeting.

527
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,120
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about some of these second year

528
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 2: guys potential flyers and JJ you mentioned one of them earlier,

529
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,399
Speaker 2: and Mike is sicky. I was really impressed actually with

530
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:25,359
Speaker 2: last year's draft class at the position Chris Herndon. I

531
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 2: wouldn't say he seemingly came out of nowhere, but he

532
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:29,640
Speaker 2: wasn't a guy that a lot of people were high

533
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 2: on entering the season. There was a little bit of

534
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,399
Speaker 2: hype on him, but not much, but I thought he

535
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,680
Speaker 2: was pretty impressive. Of course, there are questions about him

536
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 2: because of the suspension, the impact of head coach Adam

537
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,880
Speaker 2: Gase on that Jets offense. Dallas Goddard is really intriguing,

538
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 2: but who knows if they're going to be enough targets

539
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:48,640
Speaker 2: to go around. I would be interested in hearing if

540
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 2: you think, at some point Zach Ertz is injured, how

541
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 2: high does Dallas Goddard go up your rankings? I mean

542
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 2: top five at some point. But let's just kind of

543
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,919
Speaker 2: start there with Goddard. Any thoughts on on him and

544
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 2: what happens if Ertz is injured.

545
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:03,880
Speaker 4: Yeah.

546
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 1: The way that I kind of view Dallas Goddard is

547
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,880
Speaker 1: he's he's basically a best ball target only and less

548
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:09,959
Speaker 1: of a redraft target.

549
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,040
Speaker 3: And the main reason for that, he's one of those.

550
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 1: Players that you're gonna draft and after, you know, when

551
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,640
Speaker 1: the hot waiver wire period hits in the weeks one

552
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 1: and weeks two, he's gonna be the first guy that

553
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 1: you end up dropping because he's not gonna he's unless

554
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 1: he's you know, has crazy blow up games to start

555
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 1: the season.

556
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 3: That can obviously happen.

557
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 1: But I just I can't get behind him in a

558
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,359
Speaker 1: regular redraft all that much. I think that the upside

559
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 1: is certainly there though if if Ertz were to to

560
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,240
Speaker 1: get banged up, because it's a lot of a lot

561
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 1: of looks leaving the offense, and obviously Goddard becomes uh

562
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 1: the number one tight end for sure in that offense.

563
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,120
Speaker 3: And to be clear too, I don't think that.

564
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 1: Goddard uh necessarily hurts Ertz as much as Goddard would

565
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 1: hurt Nelson Agalore.

566
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 4: Uh.

567
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,119
Speaker 1: You know, with Agalore playing in the slot, those two

568
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 1: tight end sets, you're gonna see him off the field

569
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,120
Speaker 1: more than than what you would see him uh Goddard

570
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 1: dinging Ertz. But yeah, I mean, I thin I think

571
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 1: that he has the upside for sure, with an injury.

572
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:03,639
Speaker 1: But I think the only way that we see that

573
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 1: upside is really with that injury Sean.

574
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 2: If Ers is injured, where do you put Goddard in

575
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 2: your rankings?

576
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean he would be pushing in top five

577
00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:12,879
Speaker 5: stats for me.

578
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:13,879
Speaker 4: We talked about this.

579
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 5: I kind of went through some scenarios as certain players

580
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 5: if they got hurt and where they move up, and

581
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:20,400
Speaker 5: I did this scenario for the Eagles.

582
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,400
Speaker 4: If Ers is out, he'd pushed top five.

583
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 5: So he's one of my favorite, you know, high upside

584
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 5: flyer stashes at tight end. It would have to be

585
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:30,640
Speaker 5: a deep league where you can actually you know, carry

586
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 5: an extra tight end.

587
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 4: I wouldn't recommend it in most leagues.

588
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 5: But you know, even if Ers is you know, fully

589
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 5: healthy for sixteen games, he'll have some productive weeks. I mean,

590
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 5: this is tight end we're talking about. So outside of

591
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 5: the top twelve, you're gonna have some inconsistent guys that

592
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 5: are pretty much touchdown dependent, which he will be. But

593
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:49,159
Speaker 5: they're going to run up two tight end sets where

594
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 5: you know, if he's playing fifty snaps a game, he

595
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 5: could you know, be an emergency by week filling or whatever.

596
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 4: Just with him.

597
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 5: It's just tough carrying just a tight end in the

598
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 5: hopes that ERT's misses. But like I said, if you're

599
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 5: in a league that's deep enough and the bench can hold,

600
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,120
Speaker 5: you know, an extra tight end, he'd be the guy

601
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 5: I would stash.

602
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 2: All right, Jija, I want your thoughts on two guys

603
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,399
Speaker 2: on the same team. We have Mark Andrews with Baltimore

604
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:19,400
Speaker 2: and Hayden Hurst. Hurst famously was drafted in the first

605
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 2: round last year despite being I believe thirty four. I

606
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:27,880
Speaker 2: might be exaggerating, but he was definitely at least twenty four.

607
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 2: And then two rounds later, Mark Andrews was drafted and

608
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 2: he had a fantastic rookie season and this is coming

609
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 2: on the tail of a very strong college career at Oklahoma.

610
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,160
Speaker 2: I have Andrews in my top ten. I know that's

611
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 2: very aggressive, Sean. I believe you have him like ranked

612
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 2: number fifteen, so there's a big discrepancy between us, But

613
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 2: I think Andrews has the potential to be the number

614
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:57,119
Speaker 2: one pass catcher for the Baltimore Ravens this year. JJ,

615
00:26:57,400 --> 00:26:59,640
Speaker 2: where are you coming down on this? And then also

616
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,679
Speaker 2: with Hayden Hurst, do you think there's any potential that

617
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:06,119
Speaker 2: we could see this first rounder start to develop in

618
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:06,959
Speaker 2: his second season.

619
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm definitely not very bullish on Hurst for

620
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 1: the reasons that you sort of sort of mentioned there.

621
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 1: I mean, I think Andrews is a great prospect, and

622
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 1: what he did last season, I mean, he had one

623
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 1: of the most efficient rookie tight end seasons that we've

624
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 1: ever seen.

625
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 3: He was really incredible. The fear with me.

626
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 1: With anything Baltimore related is that they're really really hard

627
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 1: to project. They're an incredibly hard team to project because

628
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 1: you assume that there's gonna be some natural positive aggression

629
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 1: in their pastor rush temp ratio because teams just aren't

630
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 1: that run heavy as they were with Lamar Jackson under

631
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 1: center last season, So you assume that they're going to

632
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 1: throw the ball a little bit more.

633
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 3: But then you ask yourself, well, what if they don't like?

634
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 2: What if?

635
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 1: And what if Lamar Jackson doesn't progress as a quarterback

636
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 1: and as a passer. So that's the downside with Mark

637
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 1: Andrews is that even if he is the number one

638
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 1: target from a target chair standpoint in Baltimore, that might

639
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 1: not even matter. But I think that where you're drafting him,

640
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 1: the upside that he brings as a talent, and the

641
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:05,959
Speaker 1: fact that if Baltimore does end up throwing the ball

642
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 1: a little bit more, which I think is actually more

643
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 1: probable than not, then all of a sudden, Mark Andrews

644
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 1: could could see a decent enough amount of volume, and

645
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 1: if he can continue that efficiency and to some degree,

646
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 1: he can easily finish as a lower end tight end one.

647
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 1: So I don't mind him at all as a dart

648
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 1: throw guy because you're not.

649
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:21,399
Speaker 2: You know you're not.

650
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 1: You don't have to spend crazy, crazy equity to get him,

651
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 1: so you know, you have him at ten, and Sewan

652
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:26,159
Speaker 1: has him at fifteen.

653
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:27,439
Speaker 3: I'm sort of in the middle. I think I have

654
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 3: him at like twelve or thirteen.

655
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, in all fairness, I have him at

656
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 2: number eight. I think I said top two, top ten

657
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:35,880
Speaker 2: because I was trying to make it sound not as

658
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 2: bad as I'm super aggressive. But the thing is, for me,

659
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 2: the thought is I don't have to draft him at

660
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 2: eight to get the upside that he has. I would

661
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 2: be drafting him very late. But uh, Sean, talk what

662
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 2: you are seeing in his projection and why I am way,

663
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 2: I don't think you're well, Okay, I do think you're

664
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 2: way off, but I like how you're like you have

665
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 2: him all the way down at tight end fifteen.

666
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 5: Luckily I don't have to draft against eleven other freedman clones.

667
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 5: His ADP is all the way at twenty two. So

668
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 5: I actually do like Andrews as a late round flyer.

669
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 5: You know, he's the guy that that's returning that Lamar

670
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 5: Jackson had the most chemistry with. Last year, they drafted

671
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 5: Marquise Brown and Miles Boykrind to potentially replace Crab Cheering

672
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 5: and John Brown, so they will start off this year

673
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 5: having the most chemistry. So I think he's a good

674
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 5: late round flyer to just kind of buy in with,

675
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 5: you know, Lamar Jackson. Obviously, I think he's gonna regress

676
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 5: in the positive direction, you know, throw more so he's

677
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 5: just he's just a sneaky flyer where you'll know early

678
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 5: in the season if it's going to cash out, and

679
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 5: if not, you know he's ultimately starting your your process

680
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 5: is streaming tight ends for the season. So I think

681
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 5: he kind of reminds me of like a poor man's

682
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 5: George Kittle. I don't think he has top five upside,

683
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 5: but he's at least a flyer that you can take

684
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 5: in the later rounds and just see if it hits

685
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 5: early in the season, and you'll know pretty soon if

686
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 5: it's gonna.

687
00:29:57,240 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 4: Pound hour or not.

688
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 5: So I do like this up basically getting him a

689
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 5: free at down of the drafts. Right now, he's one

690
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 5: hundred and eighty fifth overall, so you can pretty much

691
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 5: take him the last rounds if you completely punt on

692
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 5: tight end.

693
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,239
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about the Dad Runners. This is

694
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 2: I think the portion of the show that everyone is

695
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 2: just anxious to hear JJ. I mean, there's just a

696
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 2: slew of old guys who probably won't be in the

697
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 2: league in a couple of years if we're being honest.

698
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 2: Delaney Walker, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, Jack Doyle,

699
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 2: Tyler Eiffert, Which, by the way, like what is the

700
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 2: over under on the number of games he even plays

701
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 2: this year, Sean, that is an actual question. I want

702
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:41,479
Speaker 2: you to And then Jason Witten returning to the league

703
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 2: for one last run to reclaim his dad running crown. JJ.

704
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 2: If you had to take one of these guys in

705
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 2: a draft, which one do you think it would be?

706
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 3: If I'm taking one of those guys, it would probably

707
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 3: be between Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert, just because we

708
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 3: know that the uh, the upside certainly there.

709
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 1: Greg Olsen, I'm afraid, you know, just I think it's

710
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 1: more of like a process of elimination thing. Like Delaney Walker.

711
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 1: I understand why folks are kind of into him at

712
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 1: his ADP, but I'm a little bit wary of that

713
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 1: entire passing attack there in the way that the targets

714
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 1: are gonna be distributed, especially you know, they add Adam Humphries,

715
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: so you're gonna have another target in the middle of

716
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 1: the field. They draft aj Brown, who I thought was

717
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 1: one of the if not the best wide receiver in

718
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:29,479
Speaker 1: this year's class, and then obviously Corey Davis is there too,

719
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 1: and then it's a run heavy team. I just it's

720
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 1: really hard when you build it out to see Delaney

721
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:36,800
Speaker 1: Walker seeing a ton of volume. Jimmy Graham I already

722
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 1: talked about him. There's gonna be some positive regression in

723
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 1: the touchdown column more than likely, but he still didn't

724
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 1: do much last season despite having such a high target share.

725
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 1: Greg Olsen, I think we're worried about the injury, and

726
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 1: we're also worried I mean that whole offense in Carolina.

727
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 1: You have a lot better weapons now with CMC Curtis,

728
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 1: Samuel's looking good, and obviously DJ Moore, who I think

729
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 1: is a freaking monster.

730
00:31:58,000 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 3: Jack Doyle is.

731
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 1: Apparently twenty five pounds lighter the what he was last season,

732
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 1: which is which is frightening. So it really just comes

733
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 1: down to sort of and obviously Jason Witten is no

734
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 1: longer in a broadcasting booth, so it's scary to see

735
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 1: that transition. But so it really comes down to Jordan Reid,

736
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 1: who's gonna be there without a lot of of competition.

737
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:18,959
Speaker 1: Now I understand last season he wasn't very relevant and

738
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 1: finally he stayed fairly healthy, but he still wasn't very relevant.

739
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 1: But you're kind of banking or throwing a dart and saying,

740
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 1: maybe Haskins is really good and maybe things just click

741
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 1: with them. And then with Tyler Eifert, we know that

742
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 1: he can. He scored touchdowns and during the first Bush administration,

743
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 1: so at least at least we know that that Tyler

744
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 1: Eifert had upside at one point, So maybe maybe lightning

745
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 1: will strike again. But but I think that's really the logic.

746
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 1: You have to use with some of these geriatric tight

747
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 1: ends that are going later.

748
00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I would say those are the two

749
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 2: that I actually would would target.

750
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 5: Uh.

751
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 2: Jordan Reid is intriguing uh. And Tyler Eifert. I mean,

752
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 2: is he cursed? He's re turning from a broken right ankle.

753
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:05,720
Speaker 2: He's never played a full season, but when he has

754
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 2: been on the field, and that Cincinnati offense has actually

755
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 2: kind of been its full self with AJ Green there, Yeah,

756
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 2: Tyler Eifford has been able to score touchdowns. Sean, is

757
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 2: he going to be able to stay on the field.

758
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 2: I think that's the big question. And I know it

759
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 2: sounds a little morbid to say, what is the over

760
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 2: under on the number of games he plays this year?

761
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 2: But if you're creating projections, you actually do have to

762
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 2: take that into account. And that's a really hard thing

763
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 2: to predict, because as we know, there often is very

764
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 2: little correlation between past injuries and future injuries. But some guys,

765
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 2: I mean, there it seems as if there is some

766
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 2: correlation there. What are you thinking we're going to see

767
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 2: out of Eiffort.

768
00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 5: My projection for him, I would set the line at

769
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 5: eleven and a half, But I would, you know, if

770
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 5: I posted a sportsbook, I would not take any action

771
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 5: on the under. It would just be a gimmicky prop

772
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 5: where you could just bet over eleven and a half

773
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 5: for like even money like I.

774
00:33:58,560 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 4: Wouldn't allow no.

775
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 5: So my overrunner him is eleven and a half. I

776
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 5: don't feel great about it. It's just one of those projections.

777
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 5: He has such a wide range of outcomes that you

778
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:11,399
Speaker 5: just kind of have have to roughly set it. But yeah,

779
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 5: I'm just assuming he'll get hurt at some point. Unfortunately,

780
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,839
Speaker 5: he's just probably too old to overcome these, and he's

781
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 5: had so many that it's it's hard to really say, oh,

782
00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 5: he's going to have positive aggression injury luck department. I

783
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:26,840
Speaker 5: think he's proven that he's an injury risk waiting to happen,

784
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 5: so I'm avoiding him. I'm a jj about the Jordan Reid.

785
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:32,839
Speaker 5: I'm avoiding this whole tier like the plague. But if

786
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 5: I were to pick one guy, it would definitely be read.

787
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 5: I mean, he's not even that old. He's only turning

788
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,720
Speaker 5: twenty nine this year, and you know he was healthy

789
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 5: until Week fourteen last year, and he was actually the

790
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 5: tight end twelve before he went down. So I think

791
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 5: especially with the Redskins wide receiver dut charts still looking

792
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 5: pretty mediocre.

793
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 4: He could be their top target again.

794
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 5: And he's a guy where you just you just take

795
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 5: him as a flyer and as soon as he gets

796
00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 5: hurt or miss his time, you drop him and he

797
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 5: starts streaming. He's not a guy that you would want

798
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:03,400
Speaker 5: to keep on your bench until he returns. So I

799
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 5: think he's just a late round flyer pick, use him

800
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:08,640
Speaker 5: until he gets hurt and then just you know, cut

801
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 5: bait and start streaming the position.

802
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,800
Speaker 2: Eleven and a half is exactly the number of games

803
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 2: I'm projecting him for, which is no surprise obviously. Everyone

804
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:22,319
Speaker 2: knows that you steal your projections from me. JJ. If

805
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 2: you had to bet on that number of eleven and

806
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 2: a half, I'm imagining you would smash the under right.

807
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, good thing that's not available.

808
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, I want your thoughts on some of these

809
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 2: rookies and so tight ends are notorious for really not

810
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 2: doing much in their first seasons. But we did see

811
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:42,239
Speaker 2: a couple of guys last year, and Mark Andrews and

812
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 2: Chris Herndon pop a little bit at the position, and

813
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 2: we had two guys go in the first round, and

814
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 2: then Earth Smith Junior as a third guy drafted pretty

815
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 2: highly in the second round. So I'd like to get

816
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 2: your thoughts on T. J. Hawkinson, Noah Fense, and Irv

817
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 2: Smith Junior Hawk and has some you know, long term

818
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 2: Gronk potential. Fans is an athletic Marvel who now has

819
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 2: partnered with a tight end, and Joe a quarterback in

820
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 2: Joe Flacco who has historically targeted his tight ends. And

821
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 2: then Smith Junior as a twenty one year old rookie

822
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 2: has some long term potential but currently looks to be

823
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 2: blocked behind Kyle Rudolph. What are your thoughts?

824
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't have much interest in IRV Smith just

825
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 1: because of the Rudolph thing. I think if Rudolph was gone,

826
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 1: we would definitely have some interest in them, just to

827
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:33,799
Speaker 1: see what would happen. But with Rudolph there, I'm fading him.

828
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:37,919
Speaker 1: Howkinson's I agree. I think that he has an unbelievable

829
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 1: ceiling longer term. My fear here in year one is

830
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 1: that it is a run first offense. We know that

831
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 1: he can block well. Between him and Noah Fan He's

832
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,399
Speaker 1: he's the more the better suited all around tight end.

833
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:50,879
Speaker 1: So I think that that we're gonna see this run

834
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 1: more of a run first offense, or as run first

835
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 1: as they can get, because Detroit could see some negative

836
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,879
Speaker 1: game scripts. But with Daryl Bebble, they're they're they're likely

837
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 1: to run a little bit more. They already have a

838
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 1: stud at wide receiver who I think is my boy

839
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 1: baby Tron, So you know Kenny galladays.

840
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 3: There there's just there's there's not.

841
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 1: A lot of of of great opportunity I think with

842
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 1: with Hockinson in year one, but no Offan is actually

843
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 1: kind of intriguing because if you look across their their

844
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 1: their their pass catchers. Uh, there's inexperience. You have Dayshon

845
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 1: Hamilton and Courtland Sutton. We don't know how that's gonna

846
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:27,800
Speaker 1: play out exactly. Manuel Sanders coming off that achilles injury,

847
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:31,799
Speaker 1: he might not even start the season fully healthy. So

848
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:34,760
Speaker 1: there's that that opportunity where Fant sort of has that

849
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:37,719
Speaker 1: that Evan Ingram type impact during his rookie season where

850
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 1: it's pretty volume driven and it was volume driven without

851
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 1: a stud in that lineup, And that's.

852
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 3: What we could hypothetically see with Noah Fan in Denver.

853
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 1: So if there's one of these guys that I'm targeting

854
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 1: in a draft or want to throw a dart at

855
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:50,760
Speaker 1: uh in a draft.

856
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 3: It would probably be no afan of those three.

857
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:56,759
Speaker 2: Sean, what are your thoughts on those rookie tight ends.

858
00:37:57,200 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm almost in the same spot for for Hawkinson,

859
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 5: I'm sort of in wait and see mode. Probably not

860
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 5: drafting him in redraft this year, especially when we saw

861
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:07,799
Speaker 5: Ebron leave the Lions and just tear it up for

862
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 5: the Colts. I just don't know if it's a great

863
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 5: system for tight end, but I think he's the He's

864
00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:16,279
Speaker 5: the rookie I would target. You know, Flacco is gonna

865
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 5: have to build chemistry with all these receivers and tight ends,

866
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 5: and you know Dayshaun Hamilton, Courtland Sutton or entering year two,

867
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:26,239
Speaker 5: so there's still pretty inexperienced too, So there's no there's

868
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 5: no pecking order. Reo fans just place at the end

869
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:31,280
Speaker 5: because he's a rookie. I think he can build chemistry

870
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:34,880
Speaker 5: with Flacco from day one. We've seen Flacco lean on

871
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 5: his tight ends heavily, so he's actually a situation where

872
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,320
Speaker 5: he could be thrown on the mix his rookie season.

873
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 5: So I think he's he's the only rookie, I would

874
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,240
Speaker 5: actually take a flyer in and you know, a deep league.

875
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 2: We mentioned that Hawkinson has some Gronk type of potential

876
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 2: long term, and obviously this is the first season in

877
00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:55,920
Speaker 2: a long time in which Gronkowski hasn't been someone in

878
00:38:55,960 --> 00:39:00,719
Speaker 2: the tight end landscape, although there are rumors, whispers, injectures

879
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 2: that he might return at some point in the middle

880
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:07,400
Speaker 2: of the season. And I really haven't been tempted at

881
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:10,279
Speaker 2: any point in a draft to take him as like

882
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:14,319
Speaker 2: a speculative ad. But I mean, JJ, do you think

883
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 2: at any point we see Gronk return.

884
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 1: I don't know if we see him or not, But

885
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:19,840
Speaker 1: even if we do see him, I think that the

886
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 1: risk reward here just isn't there to draft Gronk. But like,

887
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:26,319
Speaker 1: even if we were to assume that he comes back,

888
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 1: let's say like Week nine or something, or he comes

889
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:32,719
Speaker 1: back mid season, it's not like Gronk was spectacular last

890
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:34,879
Speaker 1: season from a production stain point. I think that's what's

891
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:37,719
Speaker 1: being lost with a lot of the Gronk talk. New

892
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 1: England last year I think was twenty fourth as a

893
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:43,319
Speaker 1: team in tight end scoring and fantasy points. So you know,

894
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:45,320
Speaker 1: because of that, I just I can't get you know,

895
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:47,839
Speaker 1: if we were getting twenty fifteen Gronk the then sure

896
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 1: it would be completely different. But the fact that we

897
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 1: saw him not produced last season, he looked like a

898
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:52,760
Speaker 1: shell of himself.

899
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 3: I just I can't, I can't really get behind it.

900
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, Sean, you feel similarly, Yeah, I would.

901
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:01,360
Speaker 5: I would go back to Dallas Garter if you're gonna

902
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 5: waste us, you know, a roster slot, bench slot for

903
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 5: anybody to be got it because at least he's, you know,

904
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 5: at least he's giving you some production, unless you know,

905
00:40:09,560 --> 00:40:13,400
Speaker 5: crushing thirty packs about light as a fantasy stat Grenk's

906
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:15,359
Speaker 5: gonna give you nothing unless your return. So I rather

907
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:18,839
Speaker 5: have Goddard, who would actually have top five upside if

908
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 5: ersmiss's time. So yeah, it's it's not even a given

909
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:24,760
Speaker 5: Gronk would return back to that top five player we're used.

910
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,400
Speaker 2: To sing, all right, j J. We hit on a

911
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:31,200
Speaker 2: lot of players. We didn't hit on Vance McDonald, who

912
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:33,840
Speaker 2: plays for your Beat Love Steelers. We didn't hit on

913
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 2: Eric Ebron, So there are some guys we didn't touch on.

914
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:40,279
Speaker 2: Out of those guys, anyone you want to highlight, Yeah, I.

915
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 1: Mean, I think I think of those that tier sort of.

916
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,640
Speaker 1: So it's Vance and Jared Cook and and Eric Ebron.

917
00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 1: I guess you can maybe throw in that tier. I'm

918
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 1: into into Vance if you were to, if you were

919
00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 1: to pick one of them. You know my fear with

920
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:55,400
Speaker 1: Jared Cook. I feel like it's not necessarily being talked

921
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:58,880
Speaker 1: about a ton, But Drew Brees had an unreal efficient

922
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 1: season last year. That's it's actually going to probably regress

923
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:03,840
Speaker 1: a little bit. This years touchdown rate was higher than

924
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:07,240
Speaker 1: his career average, and really if you look at last season,

925
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:09,280
Speaker 1: towards the end of the year, he started to regress

926
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 1: a little bit. So I think that there's some fear.

927
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:13,879
Speaker 1: We know that they've gone to more of this run

928
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 1: heavy offense with the defense just being better, So I

929
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 1: think there's some fear for volume and just general efficiency

930
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 1: with Jared Cook. I don't mind Jared Cook, but I

931
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:25,480
Speaker 1: would prefer Vance McDonald in an offense that had the

932
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:27,480
Speaker 1: second highest pass rush at tempt radiar that we've seen

933
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 1: over the last eight years in the NFL.

934
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:31,879
Speaker 3: I think they'll be more run heavy this year.

935
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 1: The Steelers will, but there's no clear number two target

936
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 1: in that offense, so I think there's just opportunity naturally

937
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 1: for Vance McDonald to potentially break out. So I don't

938
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 1: really mind him at his adp all that much, and

939
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 1: I think that he would be the guy that I'd

940
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:45,359
Speaker 1: be targeting out of that tier.

941
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 2: What a surprise the Steelers Homer likes the Steelers side end. Now,

942
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:53,879
Speaker 2: I'm obviously joking and I definitely I'm with you there

943
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 2: on all of the reasons for why Vance McDonald could

944
00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:59,319
Speaker 2: be the guy who breaks out this year Sean out

945
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:01,799
Speaker 2: of the tight end we haven't touched on yet. Is

946
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:03,359
Speaker 2: there anyone he stands out to you?

947
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:06,839
Speaker 5: Yeah, Vance McDonald's a big one. I've I've considered him,

948
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:09,800
Speaker 5: you know, the most likely Ebron Kittle type of breakout

949
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 5: later in the drafts for all the same reasons. You know,

950
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 5: the ab leaving is going to open up some targets,

951
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 5: but even Jesse James, So I think there's a lot

952
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 5: of potential there. But the guy that no one ever

953
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 5: talks about, But I do like getting sort of the end.

954
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:27,360
Speaker 5: He's the end of my tight end one group where

955
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:29,760
Speaker 5: you know, if he's gone, then I just punt the position.

956
00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 5: But it's Austin Hooper. He's not a sexy pick. He

957
00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 5: doesn't appear to have too much upside, you know, being

958
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:39,319
Speaker 5: the third or fourth option behind Hulia Jones, calvrn Lee

959
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:41,840
Speaker 5: and Mohammed Sanu, but he still plays on one of

960
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:45,239
Speaker 5: the top passing offenses, and all three receivers played all

961
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 5: sixteen games last year, So I think anytime a guy

962
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:50,759
Speaker 5: like Julio Ridley or Sanu missed time, you're going to

963
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:53,000
Speaker 5: see his value go up. So I think there's just

964
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 5: some hidden upside with Hooper entering year four, and he's

965
00:42:56,640 --> 00:43:00,359
Speaker 5: he's improved every single season, so I think getting him.

966
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 5: He's being drafted, you know, thirty to forty picks later

967
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:06,880
Speaker 5: than this McDonald, Cook and Joe Kootier and I haven't

968
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 5: basically lumped in there, so I think is a great value,

969
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 5: and he kind of acts as a safety. And if

970
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 5: I can't get any of these guys, if they get

971
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:15,000
Speaker 5: scooped up, I've been able to get Hooper much later.

972
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:17,759
Speaker 2: I knew you were going to say Hooper, and how

973
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 2: I knew was because I was thinking, who is the

974
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 2: most vanilla seeming player I can think of who I'm

975
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 2: actually higher on than I expected to be after creating

976
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 2: my projections, and that was Hooper. JJ It has been

977
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 2: a lot of fun having you on the show. I

978
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 2: believe you are doing. It's like a little mini series

979
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 2: within the Late Round podcast where you are talking about

980
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 2: Titans for the next few episodes. Anything there you want

981
00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 2: to tease, or anything else to talk about that's happening

982
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 2: at FanDuel or Number Fire.

983
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:50,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this really aligned perfectly with that.

984
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 1: I just published a tight end streaming episode of the

985
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:56,439
Speaker 1: Late Round podcast really quick. It's like a ten minute show,

986
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 1: and then next week I'll have the legend rich Reebar

987
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 1: on the show to sort of talk about, you know,

988
00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:03,839
Speaker 1: to Kelsey or not to Kelsey this year, and sort

989
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:06,759
Speaker 1: of walk through the opportunity cost equation and whatnot. So

990
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 1: that's all on the Late Round podcast and then everything

991
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 1: else is just going on over on Number fire dot com.

992
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:14,880
Speaker 2: Fantastic looking forward to that episode with rich Reebard, who,

993
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:17,799
Speaker 2: as you mentioned, is a legend. Be sure to follow

994
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:20,759
Speaker 2: JJ on Twitter at Late Round QB. You can follow

995
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 2: Sean and me in the Action Network app at the

996
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:25,440
Speaker 2: Underscore Odds Maker and Matt f the Oracle use the

997
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:27,439
Speaker 2: app to get real time odds and track your bets

998
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:29,839
Speaker 2: for free. On our next NFL episode, we will break

999
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 2: down the top twelve Fantasy wide receivers till then that

1000
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:35,200
Speaker 2: is going to do it. For the Action Network podcast,

1001
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:37,440
Speaker 2: please rate and interview the show on Apple Podcasts or

1002
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts. See you again next episode.