WEBVTT - Surveillance: Peril With Woodward & Costa 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:09.200 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane along 0:00:09.240 --> 0:00:13.200 with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jailely. We bring you 0:00:13.320 --> 0:00:18.600 insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:23.840 Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot com, 0:00:23.920 --> 0:00:31.760 and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. What's so important 0:00:31.760 --> 0:00:35.760 here is the style of writing of peril. We're gonna 0:00:35.760 --> 0:00:38.240 get him on in a moment, but Lisa bob Wood 0:00:38.640 --> 0:00:42.159 fourteen bestsellers, there is a method to his madness and 0:00:42.200 --> 0:00:45.960 it really highlights the different dynamic that Mark's Washington, d C. 0:00:46.120 --> 0:00:48.159 And I'm talking about that with President Trump, which he 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:51.279 talks about, but also going forward to the Puden administration 0:00:51.479 --> 0:00:54.480 and what they face going forward. There's a new frustration 0:00:54.800 --> 0:00:58.720 with the status quo. There's fusible urgency. But the division 0:00:58.800 --> 0:01:01.240 here lies in what sauls it. Do you grind away 0:01:01.360 --> 0:01:04.400 at sort of the old you know, the old establishments, 0:01:04.680 --> 0:01:06.000 or do you just sit down and say I'm not 0:01:06.040 --> 0:01:08.640 gonna move until it all comes down. Robert Costa out 0:01:08.640 --> 0:01:11.640 of Notre Dame Holding Court in Cambridge, where Dr Larrion 0:01:11.840 --> 0:01:14.440 is and with him is Bob Woodward, and they have 0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:16.759 teamed up for Peril. You've seen it out on all 0:01:16.800 --> 0:01:19.880 sorts of media. We're thrilled they could join us this morning. 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:22.440 Bob Woodward, why did you pick Robert Costa? You could 0:01:22.480 --> 0:01:26.759 have picked anybody in politics. Why did you pick young Costa? 0:01:27.840 --> 0:01:31.479 Because young Costa is the best reporter I've ever seen 0:01:31.800 --> 0:01:38.360 and his work ethic makes mine look weak. Uh. He 0:01:38.560 --> 0:01:42.759 just threw himself into this years working at the Post. 0:01:42.840 --> 0:01:49.680 He understands the Republican Party, understands Washington. Uh, like no one. Uh. 0:01:49.760 --> 0:01:54.880 He taught me a great deal. And Uh it was 0:01:56.200 --> 0:01:59.360 you know one if I was saying to somebody, said, 0:01:59.360 --> 0:02:02.400 well who most of the work, and I said, actually, 0:02:02.800 --> 0:02:07.120 we each did six. Uh. It's the kind of partnership 0:02:07.400 --> 0:02:13.560 where everyone over performs. And uh, I think over performance 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:17.240 for him is just the natural state. Well, congratulations on 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:19.800 the book, and folks, again, this is Woodward and Consta 0:02:19.800 --> 0:02:21.959 and Bob Woodward with a courage at seventy eight to 0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:24.280 say I'm going to go out and find somebody to 0:02:24.320 --> 0:02:27.200 do this with me. Robert Constant, the immediacy of the 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:29.800 book is stunning. You've done loads of interviews on the 0:02:29.880 --> 0:02:31.480 look back I don't want to do that. I want 0:02:31.520 --> 0:02:34.200 to talk about the future. And Robert Consta, you and 0:02:34.280 --> 0:02:37.200 your book by saying the peril remains, What do you 0:02:37.240 --> 0:02:40.880 mean by that? Well, I couldn't have a better reporting 0:02:40.919 --> 0:02:43.720 partner in Bob Woodward. He has taught me so much 0:02:43.760 --> 0:02:47.760 into that question about peril remains. Uh. That's a theme 0:02:47.840 --> 0:02:50.600 that runs throughout the book. And it's built not just 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:53.600 it's not an opinion. It's based on reporting. And that's 0:02:53.600 --> 0:02:57.600 the Woodword method. Tell the story of American politics, American 0:02:57.639 --> 0:03:00.960 democracy through scenes. And you see the end of our book. 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:04.360 President Trump's out there on the political campaign trail. He 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:07.280 has a warlike cadence and some of these speeches saying 0:03:07.280 --> 0:03:09.720 we will never surrender, never give in. When it comes 0:03:09.720 --> 0:03:15.520 to conceding the election, he's demanding a comeback, you know, 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:17.960 Robert Costa, I'm gonna look at what we see with 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:21.800 Greg Grandin in the Great American Myth, looking at jackson 0:03:21.919 --> 0:03:25.120 Ian history and how it folds over to the GOP. 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:29.480 Robert Costa, what kind of Republican party do you perceive 0:03:30.000 --> 0:03:34.560 in two thousand and twenty four a Republican party riven 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:37.880 by divisions? You see in our books someone like Leader McConnell, 0:03:38.120 --> 0:03:40.640 the Senate Minority leader, wants to move on. But so 0:03:40.720 --> 0:03:43.480 many people inside the GOP, on Capitol Hill and beyond 0:03:43.520 --> 0:03:47.160 believe President Trump still has political capital and so his 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:51.200 decision on will really dominate where this party goes at 0:03:51.200 --> 0:03:54.200 this point. But there's competition. Vice President Pen's a complicated 0:03:54.200 --> 0:03:56.800 political figure, as our book shows. He may want to 0:03:56.800 --> 0:03:59.360 have his own say, his own bid, and there are 0:03:59.360 --> 0:04:04.200 other stars out there, but President Trump he remains the 0:04:04.000 --> 0:04:08.520 the political force inside the GOP. There's a question right now, Bob, 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:12.200 what of what the current administration is facing in terms 0:04:12.280 --> 0:04:15.440 of getting a Washington back to a semblance of what 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:19.159 is considered or was considered normal. Considering all of your 0:04:19.160 --> 0:04:23.720 coverage backs in the Nixonian days, how dysfunctional is today's 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:27.000 government based on some of the changes and the upheavals 0:04:27.000 --> 0:04:30.120 that we've seen over the past number of years. Well, 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:35.320 that's an important question. I mean, it continues. Our point 0:04:35.400 --> 0:04:40.480 here is that Trump triggered a national security crisis that 0:04:40.520 --> 0:04:44.960 we didn't know about was a secret during the transition 0:04:45.240 --> 0:04:50.560 from Trump to Biden and uh As Costa says, look, 0:04:50.640 --> 0:04:55.600 everything is peril. And if we look at Biden right now. 0:04:55.720 --> 0:05:01.520 He's got immense problems with Afghanistan with the virus, and 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:06.279 he's trying to work out some sort of legislation to 0:05:06.480 --> 0:05:12.680 get his program through, and he's running into some obstacles 0:05:12.720 --> 0:05:16.320 in his own party. In the Democratic Party, he's supposed 0:05:16.360 --> 0:05:20.360 to be the leader and say okay, everyone do this, 0:05:20.520 --> 0:05:25.520 but that's not the way Washington works. And Uh, maybe 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:30.320 it's inevitable that people are going to be outliers. People 0:05:30.560 --> 0:05:38.560 uh the Senator Mansion, Senator uh sisma that they are 0:05:38.640 --> 0:05:41.520 going to just say we're not going to march to 0:05:41.640 --> 0:05:45.760 somebody else's vision, We've got our own, which really raises 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:49.320 a question about this new dynamic, this new increasing frustration 0:05:49.520 --> 0:05:52.880 about a dysfunction of Washington, and how you go about 0:05:52.920 --> 0:05:55.040 handling it. And Bob, I just want to know if 0:05:55.080 --> 0:05:57.960 you think if there's any precedent in terms of a 0:05:58.000 --> 0:06:00.160 group to saying we are not going to work with 0:06:00.200 --> 0:06:03.640 the establishment, period, full stop, unless we get everything we want, 0:06:03.680 --> 0:06:07.080 which seems to be an increasing fringe on both sides 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:10.840 of the aisle, both Democrats and Republicans. Well, there are 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:15.480 presidents presidents. President Clinton had a hard time getting his 0:06:15.720 --> 0:06:19.280 plan through. It It was a squeaker until the end. 0:06:19.640 --> 0:06:24.640 So we are going to see. But the debate in Washington, 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:28.440 as you well know, always one of them is about 0:06:28.520 --> 0:06:32.960 taxing and spending. How much spending? How much taxing? And uh, 0:06:33.560 --> 0:06:41.039 Biden has gone for the everything three point five trillion 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:46.280 dollars is a big spending package. And uh, we're going 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:49.480 to see. And if you talk to people, I mean, 0:06:49.560 --> 0:06:52.599 Costa knows this better than anyone. There's a lot of 0:06:52.680 --> 0:06:56.120 uncertainty out there, and there is a lot of peril, 0:06:56.720 --> 0:07:01.040 if I may use that phrase, about where this does 0:07:01.279 --> 0:07:04.720 does the Democratic Party come apart? On Bloombard Radio and 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:08.000 Bloomberg Television worldwide, we welcome you, Robert Costa and Bob 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:10.880 Woodward with us an effort of peril. Can't say enough 0:07:10.880 --> 0:07:14.560 about it once again after fourteen bestsellers, Bob Woodward on 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:18.800 deep background, as they say, Robert Costa, page two oh 0:07:18.840 --> 0:07:22.200 one of Peril to me is everything about the future 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:26.080 of the GOP. Mike Lee of Utah, born in Arizona, 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:30.240 wants to sit at Barry Goldwater's desk. There was a 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:33.520 time of peril in nine four I lived at as 0:07:33.560 --> 0:07:37.280 a kid. This peril here, how do you perceive it? 0:07:37.360 --> 0:07:43.120 Worked out across both parties. The Mike Lee example, the 0:07:43.160 --> 0:07:46.160 senator from Utah, is such a prism into the GOP 0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:50.000 right now. He was presented with the Eastman memo. Conservative 0:07:50.080 --> 0:07:53.920 lawyer Johnny Eastman presents this memo to Senator Lee based 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:58.760 on our reporting about throwing out some electors on January six, 0:07:58.800 --> 0:08:01.120 about searching for altraing at electors that may be out 0:08:01.120 --> 0:08:04.119 there in the States, and Lee long story short finds 0:08:04.120 --> 0:08:05.960 this is not the case. He does a lot of 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:08.960 reporting on his own to probe the Eastman memo, and 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:11.600 he finds there's no such thing as alternate electors out there, 0:08:11.960 --> 0:08:14.520 but this memo and John Eastman, they were in the 0:08:14.600 --> 0:08:17.440 Oval office. Our book shows on January four, two days 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:20.320 before the insurrection. This is not just some memo or 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:22.880 some fantasy. This was something that was actively going on. 0:08:22.960 --> 0:08:25.600 Pay attention to what word always tells me, to the action, 0:08:25.720 --> 0:08:30.080 where what are people doing, and saying, I look, Robert Costa, 0:08:30.080 --> 0:08:31.760 and I can go to your time at Cambridge, where 0:08:31.800 --> 0:08:35.400 I believe you effort of the fractures career of Winston Churchill. 0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:38.360 Let's swing to the Democrats right now and look at 0:08:38.360 --> 0:08:42.199 their peril. I would suggest Robert Costa that these Democrats 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:46.880 are remembered only by Bob Woodward in Washington, back pre Obama, 0:08:47.080 --> 0:08:51.560 back pre Clinton. Is this Francis Democratic Party now like 0:08:52.160 --> 0:08:56.720 way back or is it something new. There's a scene 0:08:56.760 --> 0:08:59.600 in the book where Biden looks up. President Biden looks 0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:01.800 up at a portrait of FDR and he says, this 0:09:01.880 --> 0:09:04.080 is a time for that kind of transformational change. What 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:06.360 you really see in the Democratic Party in our reporting 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:10.120 is while Biden won the presidency, Bernie Sanders and his 0:09:10.200 --> 0:09:13.600 progressive movement have one power. They are in alignment with Biden. 0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:17.079 Sanders made the decision in April and May of to 0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:19.800 work with Biden rather than against him. And you see 0:09:19.840 --> 0:09:22.559 Biden moving to the left on his one point nine 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:24.960 trillion dollar rescue plan, which we detail in the book, 0:09:24.960 --> 0:09:28.080 and even now on this massive plan he's proposing, and 0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:31.000 that's currently on the rocks on Capitol Hill. Biden is 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:32.920 not moving towards the center and trying to be the 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:36.240 guy cutting a deal with Mitch McConnell. And that dynamic continues. 0:09:36.320 --> 0:09:39.040 He wants to have a progressive legacy, even though he's 0:09:39.120 --> 0:09:42.400 known as moderate. Joe Biden from Delaware, Bob but just 0:09:42.440 --> 0:09:44.679 taking a step back when you look at all of the 0:09:44.640 --> 0:09:47.480 the reporting that you did for peril, what's your big 0:09:47.520 --> 0:09:51.040 takeaway in the new nature of the United States democracy 0:09:51.080 --> 0:09:55.160 in this new very fractus era. Well, then it's being 0:09:55.200 --> 0:09:59.040 tested and stretched by both parties. And I remember talking 0:09:59.080 --> 0:10:03.400 with President Trump when he was in office in nineteen, 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:07.559 going into the Oval office and saying that the old 0:10:07.720 --> 0:10:14.280 order in both parties, Republican and Democratic, uh, is changing, 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:19.800 is evaporating. Uh and uh he just he said yes, 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:23.720 And I said, it looks like you seized history's clock 0:10:23.800 --> 0:10:28.160 in sixteen. And he just jumped in his chair behind 0:10:28.240 --> 0:10:32.640 the resolute desk, saying, yes, I'll do it again, talking 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:37.040 about coming up. And of course he didn't. He lost. 0:10:37.200 --> 0:10:43.119 But the big Trump theme now is the election was stolen. 0:10:43.920 --> 0:10:47.439 We dug into this as much as you can, and 0:10:47.480 --> 0:10:51.600 we found these memos in this documentation that the biggest 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:57.920 Trump supporters realized there was no stolen election. What is 0:10:57.960 --> 0:11:02.440 Trump running on essentially his campaign is, well, they stole 0:11:02.480 --> 0:11:08.800 it in though there's no evidence, and uh, somehow I 0:11:08.920 --> 0:11:14.800 can run in four and and get it back. What 0:11:16.160 --> 0:11:18.960 the average voter sits and looks at all of this, 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:22.200 what does it mean to them, who's going to offer 0:11:22.880 --> 0:11:26.320 a better life and a better program? That should be 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:29.920 the issue. Maybe that will surface in all of this. 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:32.920 We have to continue on this, folks, with another one 0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:36.480 hour conversation with Robert Costan Bob Wooder. It is peril, 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:42.520 highly readable. It's a classic Woodward shocking, deep background effect. 0:11:42.640 --> 0:11:45.640 It opens with General Miley, I might point out as well, 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:48.120 and of course it is a look past as Woodward 0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:51.679 and cost to look to the future of our nation's politics. 0:11:57.640 --> 0:12:01.760 Jordan Rochester that joins us next tomorrow G ten fex strategist. 0:12:02.880 --> 0:12:06.079 He will be there for Spurs Villa this weekend. I'm 0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:07.600 not sure what that's got to do when it comes 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:10.520 to pandas or anything. Jordan, Hello, great to have you 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:14.080 with us. Good morning everyone. Let's start with sterling. Jordan's 0:12:14.760 --> 0:12:18.680 that has become really, really unpredictable, hard to trade. And 0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:20.320 I know you're scratching your head and I've read you 0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:23.480 know earlier this week you've been really transparent, open, honest, 0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:26.079 you didn't have a clue either. What are people saying 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:29.280 to you? John? I think it's we've gone back to 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:31.600 the old ways of looking at the pounds, even though 0:12:31.640 --> 0:12:34.000 it's not Brexit. We're not talking about trees made a 0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:36.520 given the press conference, Boris Johnson doing this, none of 0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:39.880 that Houses of Parliament stuff. But we're looking at Stirling 0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:44.000 with an inflation premium view. What's that about. We got 0:12:44.000 --> 0:12:46.880 this fuel crisis, petrol people are struggling to get petrol 0:12:46.880 --> 0:12:49.400 in their cars. The UK is highly exposed to this 0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:52.520 gas crisis that's taking place in European energy markets. Was 0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:55.000 seeing the price of energy in the UK, just like 0:12:55.040 --> 0:12:57.640 the rest of your spiraling quite a lot higher. But 0:12:57.760 --> 0:12:59.800 the one thing that has really made it really difficult 0:12:59.800 --> 0:13:02.319 for us or john is we priced in banking and 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:06.360 rate hikes, re rate hikes, price for next year, the 0:13:06.400 --> 0:13:08.800 pounds law. So it tells me we've got to adopt 0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:11.199 the old sort of framework, which is keep an eye 0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:14.719 out for UK inflation expectations. If they keep rising, if 0:13:14.840 --> 0:13:17.800 energy prices keep rising, that's gonna weigh on the pound. Jordan, 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:19.560 I'm going to ask a question, and I need to 0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:21.600 be a little bit open about this because I'll get 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:23.240 a lot of hate mail. This is not my view. 0:13:23.559 --> 0:13:26.360 Before everyone starts sending me hate mail. Is this trading 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:31.439 like an m currency now? Jordan's yeah, it's the question 0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:33.840 you always get asked. It's trading like can developed currency 0:13:34.240 --> 0:13:37.720 that's having an inflation problem um and emerging markets typically 0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:40.840 have higher rates of inflation. So yes, in that respect, 0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:43.040 it's trading like in the end currency because we're focusing 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:45.280 on that inflation metrics. But it's still one of the 0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:48.280 reserve currencies of the world outside the dollar, So we're 0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:50.520 not going to go too far and say it's untradeable, 0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:53.599 and you can definitely trade it. It's just very unpredictable 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:57.520 during time. King, good morning to you as well. Is 0:13:57.559 --> 0:14:00.839 this such regime shift? Jim Bollard talks about a regime shift. 0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:04.160 We finally have a sum no dollar giving us a 0:14:04.160 --> 0:14:07.800 big figure move kind of millieon for Q four. Is 0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:10.959 it a time to make big figures? I think this 0:14:11.080 --> 0:14:14.360 time we've had months now of your A dollar, for example, 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:16.480 being in a very tight range throughout the summer, and 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:18.160 I think as folks have gone back to the office 0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:20.280 and we've gone back to work in September, it's kind 0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:22.080 of woken everybody up to the risks that we're building 0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:24.400 up over that summer period, and you're A dollar has 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:26.840 been in a range and we've had leverage. So the 0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:29.880 headphonding community have been short the Euro, but not the 0:14:29.920 --> 0:14:32.080 real money community. Tom. So what I've been saying to 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:35.000 clients is I think euro is having its end moment. 0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:37.200 You think backs to Q one this year when US 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:40.360 rates moved higher after Georgia Senate rate results. The real 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:42.600 money community through in the towel and all their dollar 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:44.840 shorts against the end, they went long all the end. 0:14:45.080 --> 0:14:47.960 They didn't do the same neuro The European reopening story 0:14:48.160 --> 0:14:51.280 was still very attractive, and we had et F flows 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:53.800 into Europe, but that's for the FX that hasn't worked. 0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:56.360 And now we've broken below one sixteen, which is the 0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:58.680 line the sand for me. I think this is regime changed, Tom, 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:00.520 and we're looking for one four seen in the euro 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:03.080 against the dollar. All right, that's the short term, But Jordan, 0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:06.680 you do see the Euro going back to versus the dollar. 0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:08.920 I believe. I believe that that was your car. Can 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:11.080 you talk about the path to get there and how 0:15:11.120 --> 0:15:15.400 the ECB responds to some of the inflationary inputs, even 0:15:15.440 --> 0:15:20.000 though they call them transitory. Absolutely, Yeah, the dollar view 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:22.520 is still predicated on a global recovery. But right now 0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:25.320 we're going through a slowdown data. The surveys are all 0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:27.320 slowing down, So that's why we're talking about dollar strength 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:29.240 right here and now. If we get into the sort 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:31.640 of Q one next year, we'll have hopefully of pricing 0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:33.440 quite a lot of that slow down, and then we'll 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:36.840 start to focus on the positives again. The European mobility 0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:39.560 data is fantastic. The returns of work in Europe has 0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:41.960 been much stronger than it actually has been in the US, 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:45.239 according to the Google Apple data and every other statistics 0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:47.320 we look at for So that means maybe there's a 0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:50.840 European performance story next year. And also by December we 0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:53.760 might have got the German coalition to announce the policies 0:15:53.760 --> 0:15:57.440 they will actually do. Whichever coalition is actually formed, maybe 0:15:57.440 --> 0:16:00.600 the market focuses on those growth numbers and could boost 0:16:00.640 --> 0:16:03.720 euro again. But fully e c B. They've got the 0:16:03.720 --> 0:16:06.160 same situation for the UK. Energy prices are going up. 0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:10.240 They're actually nearly double more important for European inflation. Nine 0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:13.000 and a half per cent of inflation basket in euro 0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:16.040 is energy, so energy costs rising is a big deal 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:18.560 for their actual inflation forecast. But they'll be able to 0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:21.280 rest on the fact they've had a decade of low inflation, 0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:23.600 so the idea of them raising rates next year or 0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:25.840 the year after it is very low. But for markets, 0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:29.560 what will be looking at. There's already one rate hYP 0:16:29.640 --> 0:16:32.200 price into the ECB by that's the end of it. 0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:36.800 So do we see the re spe raise rates three 0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:38.680 years away? I have to I have to really raise 0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:41.280 a question about this because central bankers have broadly said 0:16:41.560 --> 0:16:44.280 that energy prices are not something that they look at 0:16:44.280 --> 0:16:47.160 for core inflation. That isn't going to necessarily bleed into 0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:50.040 their view in terms of whether to raise rates, since 0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:53.080 it has factors that go beyond monetary policy. Why is 0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:56.480 this time different? This time is different because we've just 0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:58.800 had a record fiscal stimulus in Europe and the US, 0:16:59.200 --> 0:17:02.440 and also we're having massive supply chain problems, so it 0:17:02.520 --> 0:17:04.879 isn't going to be just energy. It's gonna be a 0:17:04.920 --> 0:17:07.440 lot of other parts of the CPI basket are going up. 0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:09.440 And the main thing for me is look at those 0:17:09.440 --> 0:17:14.280 consumer inflation expectations. They're not falling, they're rising. They're rising slowly, 0:17:14.320 --> 0:17:17.560 but over time, as energy prices feed through to people's budgets, 0:17:17.560 --> 0:17:19.680 when they see the price of their electricity bills, when 0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:21.280 they start to go to the shop and see food 0:17:21.280 --> 0:17:24.000 and clothing going up, They'll start to think, maybe inflation 0:17:24.000 --> 0:17:26.639 is higher than to present, to raise my inflation expectation, 0:17:27.000 --> 0:17:28.760 and that sort of feed through perhaps two wages. I'm 0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:31.000 not talking about a wage spiral. I'm not talking about 0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:33.960 inflationary spiral. But we are talking about the direction is 0:17:33.960 --> 0:17:38.040 probably higher inflation expectations, not lower, and that's something central 0:17:38.040 --> 0:17:40.080 banks respond to. I got one prediction from you, then 0:17:40.080 --> 0:17:41.960 you're a dollar looking for one fourteen. Let's get a 0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:45.600 second spurs Villa Sunday afternoon. You'll be there, Jordan, What 0:17:45.640 --> 0:17:49.280 are you looking for? If we get anything, just anything 0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:51.560 close to the shock result of one nil against Man, 0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:55.280 you all be happy, absolutely happy. We're talking about how 0:17:55.280 --> 0:18:00.239 many beaver Town bread beverages are you gonna have? At 0:18:00.280 --> 0:18:02.960 least a couple, at least a couple, for sure. Can't 0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:05.080 drink comment a stands though, anymore, can you? Jordan? Really, 0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:09.840 I didn't know that that to change. To bring the 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:13.240 base back into the stands, you have to except halftime. 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:16.120 You have to drink really quickly and then come back out, 0:18:16.880 --> 0:18:19.360 which is what you see. The stands are still slightly 0:18:19.359 --> 0:18:26.000 empty until about forty minute so much every day about it. Janda, 0:18:26.119 --> 0:18:38.600 thank you. Joanna Rochester there fourteen eurox strategist. Right now, 0:18:38.640 --> 0:18:41.840 we consider Washington, and we do it with someone who 0:18:41.920 --> 0:18:45.919 is steeped and I mean steeped and what infrastructure can do. 0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:49.679 Captain Clark is the Assistant Speaker of the House, but 0:18:49.840 --> 0:18:53.440 far more she represents the fifth district of the Commonwealth 0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:57.720 of Massachusetts and is adjacent to the most successful infrastructure 0:18:57.960 --> 0:19:01.920 project ever done. Karatin Clark. I stood in Boston and 0:19:02.119 --> 0:19:07.639 abject awe and looked across the torn down Southeast Expressway 0:19:07.640 --> 0:19:11.040 at the north end I had never ever, ever seen 0:19:11.600 --> 0:19:15.760 in my life. Can we bring that infrastructure success to 0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:20.680 the rest of America. We are going to do just that, 0:19:21.119 --> 0:19:24.080 and that project, the Big Dig, shows what we can 0:19:24.160 --> 0:19:28.520 do not only create good jobs, improve our roads and bridges, 0:19:28.920 --> 0:19:32.960 but also reconnect communities. And we've seen that play out 0:19:33.080 --> 0:19:37.520 over and over again that communities, especially communities of color 0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:41.440 and low income communities have been cut off. And so 0:19:41.560 --> 0:19:46.720 our Infrastructure Plan plans to do that physically and also 0:19:46.880 --> 0:19:49.080 help those who have been cut off by lack of 0:19:49.160 --> 0:19:53.080 opportunity to be part of a royal economy that we're 0:19:53.080 --> 0:19:55.720 going to build Congressman. I'll go with that. I think 0:19:55.760 --> 0:19:58.880 that's very very good idea. But do you do it 0:19:59.040 --> 0:20:02.520 linked to a social program or is today's action going 0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:06.600 to be you and Speaker Pelosi are gonna delink infrastructure 0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:12.560 and future big digs from a social agenda. We this 0:20:12.680 --> 0:20:18.399 is all about building a great economy getting people back 0:20:18.440 --> 0:20:22.160 to work. So these are always part of one build 0:20:22.160 --> 0:20:26.640 back better agenda. There's roads, there's bridges, there's broadband, there's 0:20:26.640 --> 0:20:29.159 getting the let out of our water, and there is 0:20:29.200 --> 0:20:33.359 making investments to have the workforce of the future. We know, 0:20:33.600 --> 0:20:37.679 whether you are Warren Buffett or the local restaurants that 0:20:37.760 --> 0:20:41.520 I recently held a round table with, childcare is a 0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:45.960 huge barrier for getting people back to work. Is about 0:20:46.000 --> 0:20:48.879 the economy. Look, the nation's in crisis. Even if you 0:20:48.920 --> 0:20:51.320 were playing baseball last night and that double play you 0:20:51.359 --> 0:20:54.879 went into was terrible, terthy Clark. I want to know 0:20:55.160 --> 0:20:59.360 right now you mentioned bad water. Dan Kildee Flint, Michigan, 0:20:59.800 --> 0:21:03.320 his lived bad water. He's got to go out for 0:21:03.400 --> 0:21:07.280 you and Speaker Pelosi and count the votes today. Can 0:21:07.320 --> 0:21:11.760 you count the votes attaching this infrastructure bill to a 0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:18.600 three point five trillion dollar social agenda? Of liberals. This 0:21:18.800 --> 0:21:22.480 is the agenda of the American people. This is the 0:21:22.600 --> 0:21:27.160 agenda of American business. Do we want a full recovery 0:21:27.280 --> 0:21:31.360 or do we not? These are absolutely on parallel tracks, 0:21:31.880 --> 0:21:36.639 and they are the President's agenda, built from his conversations 0:21:37.040 --> 0:21:40.960 throughout this country. So whether you're in rural America and 0:21:41.000 --> 0:21:45.480 you can't find childcare, or you need to get the 0:21:45.640 --> 0:21:48.800 lead out of the water in our urban cities or 0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:52.320 in our suburbs, this is all part of how we 0:21:52.800 --> 0:21:57.040 addressed this moment of economic, racial and climate justice. And 0:21:57.119 --> 0:21:59.200 this woman, do you think that there will be actually 0:21:59.240 --> 0:22:01.440 a vote today in the House of Representatives on the 0:22:02.320 --> 0:22:07.040 billion dollar bipartisan plan. We are working every day to 0:22:07.160 --> 0:22:09.760 make sure that we have a path to get to 0:22:09.760 --> 0:22:12.000 the vote. And I can tell you this about the 0:22:12.000 --> 0:22:17.040 Democratic Caucus. We are united in behind this Build Back 0:22:17.119 --> 0:22:21.280 Better agenda because we know that this is what our 0:22:21.320 --> 0:22:25.680 economy needs to meet this moment a great challenge. But Congresswoman, 0:22:25.720 --> 0:22:28.520 what happens if that vote is not held today because 0:22:28.520 --> 0:22:30.760 there are not enough votes to get on board and 0:22:30.800 --> 0:22:34.119 to agree on the build Back Better part of the 0:22:34.160 --> 0:22:37.880 whole package. The two part issue that the Democrats would 0:22:37.880 --> 0:22:42.000 like to pass what I know for sure is that 0:22:42.080 --> 0:22:45.440 we are going to pass both parts of these Whether 0:22:45.520 --> 0:22:48.439 if we can do that today, that's what we're working 0:22:48.640 --> 0:22:52.680 every minute of today to make sure happens. But if 0:22:52.720 --> 0:22:56.639 it doesn't, that doesn't mean this is over. This is 0:22:56.680 --> 0:23:00.680 a commitment. This is why the American people sent Joe 0:23:00.680 --> 0:23:04.720 Biden to Washington, why we have the majorities and there 0:23:04.840 --> 0:23:09.240 is a deep unity around making sure that we rebuild 0:23:09.320 --> 0:23:13.280 this economy, we address the urgency of climate change, and 0:23:13.320 --> 0:23:17.080 we make these critical investments in the American people so 0:23:17.200 --> 0:23:19.199 they can get back to work. To be clear here, 0:23:19.200 --> 0:23:23.520 then you don't think today is an important day. Today, 0:23:23.520 --> 0:23:27.840 it's a critical day, toote. I'm just trying to find 0:23:27.840 --> 0:23:29.399 out commerce room, because you know how this works. We 0:23:29.440 --> 0:23:31.560 have these long conversations. You read the script. We got 0:23:31.600 --> 0:23:33.359 a way, and I'm still not sure if there's a 0:23:33.400 --> 0:23:38.840 vote today, well, we're still in negotiations. We want to 0:23:38.880 --> 0:23:41.879 get to yes. Everybody does. And that is what the 0:23:41.880 --> 0:23:44.359 White House is working at. That is what leadership is 0:23:44.400 --> 0:23:46.920