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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Thursday edition of Balance of Power. Yeah,
Speaker 2: you made it to Little Friday. And it's a big
Speaker 2: day around here in Washington. Anytime there's a state dinner,
Speaker 2: there's just something in the air, sense of celebration. I
Speaker 2: guess at the White House, and if you're inside the
Speaker 2: grounds of the White House, this is a spectacular moment
Speaker 2: because they bring all the tables outside of the extended kitchen.
Speaker 2: You got people, temporary workers setting up stages. They're putting
Speaker 2: up the tenting on the south lawn. This is a
Speaker 2: big deal. Doesn't happen that often, and it doesn't happen
Speaker 2: for everyone. Take a look at all the world leaders
Speaker 2: who have come here since Joe Biden was in the
Speaker 2: White House, and how many did not get this treatment.
Speaker 2: But the President of Kenya is an exception, with the
Speaker 2: world watching and namely China watching as its Belton Road
Speaker 2: initiative across Africa runs into a wall, and African nations
Speaker 2: like Kenya are coming to the US to have a
Speaker 2: conversation about how to rationalize their debt and how to
Speaker 2: draw Western investment into the country. So this is important.
Speaker 2: The President of Kenya, William Rudo, we talked about this yesterday,
Speaker 2: arrived at the White House a little while ago, inside
Speaker 2: a bilateral meeting with the President of the United States.
Speaker 2: Right now and at twelve thirty supposedly according to the schedule,
Speaker 2: that's half an hour from now, there will be a
Speaker 2: joint news conference. We will bring that to you live
Speaker 2: with American reporters and foreign press there having a conversation
Speaker 2: with these two leaders, and of course that conversation can
Speaker 2: go in a lot of different directions. The fact is,
Speaker 2: though this marks sixty years of diplomatic relations between our
Speaker 2: two countries, the White House tries to leverage the private
Speaker 2: sector to deepen ties. And that's why I want to
Speaker 2: bring in Tyler Kendall Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall at the White
Speaker 2: House on the North Lawn right now with the story
Speaker 2: of what's happening inside that building behind her.
Speaker 3: Hey Kendall, Yeah, Hey, Joe Hey, Joe, it was interesting
Speaker 3: to see that President Biden decides to kick off this
Speaker 3: state visit by inviting executives from both US and Kenyan
Speaker 3: based companies to the White House. That included the CFO
Speaker 3: of Google's parent company, Alphabet. It's part of this broader
Speaker 3: push for more strategic investment in the country, and I
Speaker 3: want you to take a lesson to President Biden from
Speaker 3: earlier talking about this renewed relationship between Silicon Valley and
Speaker 3: what's being called the Silicon Savannah.
Speaker 4: Take a lesson.
Speaker 5: We're launching a new era of technology to technological cooperation
Speaker 5: between Kenya and America, including new exchanges and investments in
Speaker 5: key fields of cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors.
Speaker 3: It's a welcome sentiment for the Kenyan President, William Rutu,
Speaker 3: and appears to already be paying off. Today Kenya announced
Speaker 3: a three point six billion dollar infrastructure investment. This will
Speaker 3: build highways across the country and it's backed by a
Speaker 3: Virginia based fund known as ever Strong Capital. Joe, as
Speaker 3: you alluded to, this is part of broader competition on
Speaker 3: the continent for investment between US and China. Interestingly enough,
Speaker 3: we dug into the data and looked at an analysis
Speaker 3: done by JOHNS. Hopkins looking at government data which found
Speaker 3: that China is far out pacing the US when it
Speaker 3: comes to foreign direct investment in China, and that started
Speaker 3: in twenty thirteen, which happens to be the same year
Speaker 3: that China launched its Felt and Roaded initiative. But Joe,
Speaker 3: when we look just at Kenya, which is why we
Speaker 3: are here today, Kenya, when it comes to foreign direct
Speaker 3: investment by the US into Kenya, it's actually declining. The
Speaker 3: most recent data is from twenty twenty two from the
Speaker 3: USTR's office, and it shows levels we're at two hundred
Speaker 3: and seventy seven million dollars. Joe, that's a ten percent
Speaker 3: decrease from the year prior.
Speaker 2: Well, that's fascinating. Great homework for a little perspective here
Speaker 2: before we hear these two gentlemen at their respective podium here, Tyler,
Speaker 2: this is a conversation with the private sector that took
Speaker 2: place yesterday. There were executives from Alphabet, from capital investment firms.
Speaker 2: You just mentioned a deal with a Northern Virginia company
Speaker 2: here that's coming to bear. It's kind of interesting to
Speaker 2: see the form that this is taking and tonight it's
Speaker 2: about soft power, right. They're all going to get into
Speaker 2: this tent for a big dinner, a big celebration. We've
Speaker 2: had a look at the menu. It looks like a
Speaker 2: pretty posh night.
Speaker 3: Right exactly. But before all of that could happen, we
Speaker 3: know that the Kenyan President willing Rot two was really
Speaker 3: looking for some of these more concrete proposals coming out
Speaker 3: of this. He went traveled to Capitol Hill yesterday to
Speaker 3: meet with how Speaker Mike Johnson, where he made clear
Speaker 3: that the economic proposals and also trade and also this
Speaker 3: idea of debt, which I know that you're going to
Speaker 3: get into later in the show today, would be addressed
Speaker 3: during these meetings.
Speaker 2: That's great, Tyler, Kendall on the North Lawn and come
Speaker 2: back to us as we get closer to the news conference, Tyler,
Speaker 2: with a lot to talk about here today in Washington,
Speaker 2: d C. We'll be hearing, as I mentioned, from the presidents,
Speaker 2: both of them, in a joint news conference from the
Speaker 2: White House a short time from now. We'll bring that
Speaker 2: to you live when it happens. Let's add the voice
Speaker 2: of Bloomberg White House correspondent Jordan Fabian with US as
Speaker 2: we look ahead to this news conference here on balance
Speaker 2: of power Jordan. It's great to have you. They're going
Speaker 2: to be American reporters there who have things other than
Speaker 2: Africa and foreign investment on their mind. What's going to
Speaker 2: be the pressing issue to get to Joe Biden today?
Speaker 6: As important as Joe Biden have views this visit today,
Speaker 6: the issue that's been dominating his presidency is the Israel
Speaker 6: Hamas war, and I would expect this is going to
Speaker 6: come up at the joint news conference later. There are
Speaker 6: a number of other topics that are on his plate,
Speaker 6: from immigration to Donald Trump, the ongoing trials in the election,
Speaker 6: that he could be asked about at that news conference
Speaker 6: of twelve thirty, So a lot of topics.
Speaker 7: Can be covered.
Speaker 2: I have no doubt the significance of this meeting is
Speaker 2: really something to me because not every world leader, as
Speaker 2: you can express to us here and explain to us Jordan,
Speaker 2: gets this kind of treatment. Why is the president of
Speaker 2: Kenya being propped up on this level today on the
Speaker 2: international stage.
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a good point show. This is the first
Speaker 6: state visit for an African leader in sixteen years to
Speaker 6: the White House, and it really goes to show how
Speaker 6: this great power competition between the US and China is
Speaker 6: heating up. This is almost becoming a Cold War light
Speaker 6: where they're vying for power and influence all over the globe.
Speaker 6: And look, the US has been concerned about China's inroads
Speaker 6: in Africa, not only to get critical minerals, natural resources,
Speaker 6: but also these infrastructure investments of the US, says is
Speaker 6: saddling these countries with debt. But the African countries have said, look,
Speaker 6: you the US as neglect of the region for a
Speaker 6: long time. What's the alternative. This is Joe Biden's attempt
Speaker 6: at that alternative, trying to inject US for an investment
Speaker 6: there on semiconductors, on infrastructure, as Tyler just mentioned, to
Speaker 6: try and edge China out of that space. And it's
Speaker 6: gonna Yeah, they have a lot of work to do,
Speaker 6: so we'll see if it succeeds. But this is a
Speaker 6: big swing in that direction.
Speaker 2: It sure is. I know, this is probably not the
Speaker 2: type of thing that resonates at home Jordan when you
Speaker 2: consider the candidate Joe Biden as opposed to the President
Speaker 2: of the United States doing his job in this case,
Speaker 2: or maybe there's a broader way to look at it.
Speaker 2: We hear a lot about the Rose Gardens strategy. These
Speaker 2: moments help Joe Biden no matter what, correct being caught
Speaker 2: in the act of doing the job.
Speaker 6: Exactly. It's the power of a compancy. It's a very
Speaker 6: powerful force in American politics. Donald Trump is the only
Speaker 6: incumbent since nineteen ninety two to lose reelection. So this
Speaker 6: is something that Cumbans do. They buy around the country
Speaker 6: and air force one. They hold state dinners and news
Speaker 6: conferences in the Rose Garden to project that power. And
Speaker 6: so this is an example of that today. And it
Speaker 6: also again gives President Buying a chance to hit on
Speaker 6: some of these key issues we talked about China. Also,
Speaker 6: you know Joe Biden's bleeding support from black voters. He
Speaker 6: can now go out there and say, hey, I have
Speaker 6: invited you this African leader here, I'm showing the importance
Speaker 6: of this relationship. Oh and by the way, you know
Speaker 6: a lot of black American celebrities, business leaders, etc. Are
Speaker 6: expected to be at that state dinner tonight, So even
Speaker 6: more soft power on his plot.
Speaker 2: That's look at that, that's absolutely I'm so glad you
Speaker 2: said that. Think of the optics that will be shared
Speaker 2: with the country and with the world tomorrow. None of
Speaker 2: this stuff happens by accident, Jordan, Are we taking DIBs
Speaker 2: on when this starts as schedule for twelve thirty? There's
Speaker 2: no way that happens coming directly out of bilateral meeting
Speaker 2: in the Oval Office, right.
Speaker 6: If it's a day that ends, and why we're running
Speaker 6: on Biden time, so I would imagine it's going.
Speaker 2: To be late. This is a man who lives and
Speaker 2: dies by the Biden clock. Thank you, Jordan, great to
Speaker 2: see it. Always a pleasure, Jordan Fabian one of the
Speaker 2: best here at Bloomberg and covering the White House for us.
Speaker 2: We'll bring that to you when it happens. Hey, look,
Speaker 2: maybe they show up early. Dare to dream you'll hear
Speaker 2: about it live and you can see it live too.
Speaker 2: To that end, I invite you to join us on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Go to YouTube and search Bloomberg Global News. You'll find
Speaker 2: our live stream right there. We always save a seat
Speaker 2: for you in the studio if it is a day ending,
Speaker 2: and why as we turn our attention to something that
Speaker 2: actually got done this week on Capitol Hill, enough complaining
Speaker 2: about messaging bills for at least a moment here because
Speaker 2: the Crypto Market Structure Bill passed. This is the one
Speaker 2: we talked about quite a bit with lawmakers, including Wiley Nickel,
Speaker 2: the FIT bill, as they call it, FIT twenty one
Speaker 2: market structure. Who handles what coin and in which way?
Speaker 2: The question is where does it go from here? And
Speaker 2: I'm glad to say he's come back to talk to us,
Speaker 2: and what I bet feels like a bit of a
Speaker 2: victory lab for Wiley Nickel, the gentleman from North Carolina's
Speaker 2: thirteenth districts. Of course, Democrat, a pro crypto democrat. It's
Speaker 2: good to see you, sir, welcome back. Is this going
Speaker 2: to see the light of day? Could it pass the Senate?
Speaker 8: Hey, it's great to be This is a big deal.
Speaker 8: This is what Washington looks like when we're getting things done,
Speaker 8: when we're working across the aisle. It's a victory for
Speaker 8: bipartisan governance. And for the first time in our nation's history,
Speaker 8: we have voted on crypto regulation to regulate the industry
Speaker 8: and do the things we need to protect consumers, stop
Speaker 8: the next FTX. You know, great bipartisan showing of support.
Speaker 2: Yesterday in the House, we had the head of the
Speaker 2: blockchain association with us at the table here yesterday, who
Speaker 2: was on her way to a party after the program
Speaker 2: because of the moment that you just framed, But how
Speaker 2: do you make it more than a message meal? By
Speaker 2: the way, I realized this is a big deal for
Speaker 2: the industry. A couple of years ago. This moment probably
Speaker 2: could not have been envisioned. But you want to get
Speaker 2: it across the finish line, right, No, this.
Speaker 8: Was this was you know, over a year, hundreds and
Speaker 8: hundreds of hours of work with our Republican colleagues to
Speaker 8: get this bill to a place where we could get
Speaker 8: seventy one Democrats behind it. And by the way, I
Speaker 8: saw her at that party afterwards, so I know she
Speaker 8: made it. But you know, this is this has been
Speaker 8: a you know, a bipartisan process. You know, my fellow
Speaker 8: North Carolinian and Republican chair of our committee, Patrick McHenry,
Speaker 8: sat down immediately with Democrats like me who wanted to
Speaker 8: work on this issue and said, listen, we're going to
Speaker 8: do this together. And you know, we brought in our changes,
Speaker 8: we brought in you know, for this bill to get
Speaker 8: it to this point. And you know, we know seventy
Speaker 8: one Democrats is a big deal. This is more than
Speaker 8: we thought we could get. But you just kind of
Speaker 8: talk to folks, educate them on the issues. And if
Speaker 8: you educate folks on the issues about why we need
Speaker 8: to keep innovation in the US, why we need to
Speaker 8: protect consumers and regulate the industry, you know, we got
Speaker 8: a lot of great folks on board, including people like
Speaker 8: Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Speaker 2: So a great win yesterday. Well it sounds like we're
Speaker 2: going to have another pretty important development today with the
Speaker 2: potential for an Ether ETF being approved. How important is
Speaker 2: that in the normalization You talk about the education of
Speaker 2: people here and that you're right. It tends to be
Speaker 2: and I'm not sitting here with a position on this,
Speaker 2: but tends to be the more people learn about crypto,
Speaker 2: the more in some cases they are drawn to it.
Speaker 2: If that's the case, you see headlines like today it's
Speaker 2: not just bitcoin, it's Ether. This is part of the
Speaker 2: industrial investment space. Does that unlock opportunities on Capitol Hill
Speaker 2: or demand solutions on Capitol Hill?
Speaker 8: I can just tell you Unether's that's a place where
Speaker 8: the sec after we pushed and pushed allowed for a
Speaker 8: Bitcoin e t F, and they ought to use the
Speaker 8: same rules in rationale to approve the the ether E
Speaker 8: t F. I pushed, you know, with Democrat Josh Gottheimer
Speaker 8: Chair Patrick McHenry in a letter just yesterday to Gary
Speaker 8: Gensler urging him to to approve that the ether E
Speaker 8: t F.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 8: You know, but these are these are good products. This
Speaker 8: is this is a place that is safe for for
Speaker 8: consumers and and in a way that gives them the
Speaker 8: opportunity to invest in these products. So I think it's
Speaker 8: a good thing, and I'm hopeful that that we'll have
Speaker 8: good news from the SEC. But you know, in general,
Speaker 8: we're seeing regulation by enforcement that is not helping President Biden,
Speaker 8: you know. And I think the SEC generally is is
Speaker 8: out of step with with the rest of the Biden
Speaker 8: administration on a lot of these issues. So, uh, you know,
Speaker 8: the SEC is not uh, you know, the only voice,
Speaker 8: the only the only person at the table here.
Speaker 2: We've mentioned before that you're ending your tenure at least
Speaker 2: for now in Congress, and as someone who has the
Speaker 2: freedom to speak, not running for reelection, and I realize
Speaker 2: that you may well be back in the political sphere
Speaker 2: at some point soon. Has your office become a refuge
Speaker 2: for other lawmakers who can come there and say whatever
Speaker 2: they want.
Speaker 8: You know, there's a ton of freedom in this that
Speaker 8: you get to do the things that I care about,
Speaker 8: and a bipartisan way. If I you know, if I
Speaker 8: think the Democrats are right, I'm with my Democrats. If
Speaker 8: the Republicans have a good point, you know, I get
Speaker 8: to work with them on issues. So you know, that's
Speaker 8: been great. But you know, for me, it's just about
Speaker 8: getting four years of work done in two years. So
Speaker 8: we are literally, you know, racing it to get to
Speaker 8: the finish line, to do as much as we can.
Speaker 6: And you know, people.
Speaker 8: Who send us to Washington expect us to work and
Speaker 8: get things done. And I just grasp for any opportunity
Speaker 8: to move legislation that can get through the House and Senate,
Speaker 8: get signed by the President, and help the people I'm
Speaker 8: here to.
Speaker 2: Serve, all while honoring the grateful dead that is Wiley Nickel.
Speaker 2: I thought of you, and I I saw the images
Speaker 2: from the sphere. Congressman, my god, I have to be
Speaker 2: there for the next one. Thanks for coming back, and
Speaker 2: don't be a stranger while you're in town. Wiley nicol
Speaker 2: the Democrat from North Carolina.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can
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Speaker 2: Eleven thirty, we had the voice of an expert, Robin Sanders,
Speaker 2: former US Ambassador to the Congo under George W. Bush,
Speaker 2: to Nigeria under George Bush, and Barack Obama, former Director
Speaker 2: for Africa at the National Security Council, now a member
Speaker 2: of the board of Human Rights Watch. Madam Ambassador, It's
Speaker 2: great to have you on Bloomberg. What do you want
Speaker 2: to hear from Joe Biden when he speaks today?
Speaker 9: I think that there's a scene seenter here that I
Speaker 9: want to actually talk about. First, this is the first
Speaker 9: African president's state visit since two thousand and eight. That
Speaker 9: should really set the tone for howeverten this is the
Speaker 9: fact that Kenya has been chosen for this really underscores
Speaker 9: the role that Kenya is playing on the continent and
Speaker 9: that Kenya also playing a more global leading role, particularly
Speaker 9: with the announcement today that it will be a non
Speaker 9: natal security partner for the US. So this is a
Speaker 9: big deal. It's a pivot for us in a big
Speaker 9: way that we needed to make. We are behind the
Speaker 9: curve in terms of our engagement with Africa on a
Speaker 9: consistent level. We're seen as being episodic, only coming to
Speaker 9: the region when we need something. And I think this
Speaker 9: message that we hear you, we see you as an
Speaker 9: equal partner and a strategic partner that Biden is doing
Speaker 9: during this visit is extremely important.
Speaker 2: If you're with us on Bloomberg TV, you see the
Speaker 2: East Room at the White House decked out and ready
Speaker 2: for these two leaders when they speak. Will bring the
Speaker 2: conversation with you and Madam Ambassador, I'll apologize in advance
Speaker 2: if our conversation is interrupted. There are a lot of
Speaker 2: audiences for the event that you just described, and China
Speaker 2: is one of them, to the extent that countries like
Speaker 2: Kenya have been left carrying heavy debtloads as a byproduct
Speaker 2: of the Belt and Road initiative in China. What can
Speaker 2: the US do to help? Is it through private enterprise,
Speaker 2: private investment as this administration is saying, or does the
Speaker 2: government need to help here as well?
Speaker 9: All of those combined needs to be China. We are
Speaker 9: behind the curve in this visit, though, you'll see that
Speaker 9: we're focused on a number of things. There is with
Speaker 9: a business roundtable that was held at the White House
Speaker 9: as well. There's a billion dollar deal on the table. Microsoft.
Speaker 9: You had visits to Coca Cola, you had a state
Speaker 9: visit also, he went to Atlanta and met with business
Speaker 9: leaders there, and so it is a very multi faceted
Speaker 9: thematic rip. It is not only the security message, it's
Speaker 9: not only the democracy message, but it is the trade
Speaker 9: and investment message. American businesses wanted to trade was the
Speaker 9: country like Kenya because of its history of democracy, and
Speaker 9: we need to step up as the US government to
Speaker 9: do more. You'll see that prosper Africa. You know, all
Speaker 9: the government agencies on the development and business side are
Speaker 9: very much involved in this visit and they're excited about it.
Speaker 9: From a trade perspective, from a foreign direct investment perspective,
Speaker 9: So all of those things are playing in this visit.
Speaker 9: And for those of us who worked ONCA for years,
Speaker 9: we see this as a big plus not only for
Speaker 9: the US but for the image that the US is
Speaker 9: really getting it that they need to be involved with Africa.
Speaker 9: In a much more deep and comprehensive way.
Speaker 2: Does Joe Biden need to go there now?
Speaker 9: I think so. He had mentioned it earlier in his tenure.
Speaker 9: I know things on the ground in the world have
Speaker 9: trained so drastically, So I don't know whether that will
Speaker 9: happen now in November. Realistically, I get that. But the
Speaker 9: fact that this state is it. I said, when you
Speaker 9: look at the time period two thousand time where generations
Speaker 9: have come into leadership on the continent, not only just
Speaker 9: in business but in politics, and we've been left out
Speaker 9: of that because we haven't shown the constancy that China has.
Speaker 9: And whatever criticisms that you have about China in terms
Speaker 9: of debt, those are true. But China can pivot fast
Speaker 9: as he can, and they have understood that and they
Speaker 9: are trying to address that. But the other thing that
Speaker 9: I will say that China has had a annual meeting
Speaker 9: with African heads of states the nineteen nineties, since at
Speaker 9: the end of the nineteen nineties, and so you have
Speaker 9: this longevity there of consu instancy, including the Foreign Minister,
Speaker 9: which would be the equivalent of Secretary Blinking going to
Speaker 9: the continent every single year. At the beginning of the
Speaker 9: year without fail for all of that period of time.
Speaker 9: So we haven't shown this consistent engagement, and I think
Speaker 9: that this I can't tell you how important this visit is.
Speaker 9: It sends so many messages in the right direction, and
Speaker 9: I really commend the administration for moving in that direction
Speaker 9: in such a high level way.
Speaker 2: Well, it is pretty amazing. We remember the investments that
Speaker 2: George W. Bush made as a Republican president. You were
Speaker 2: there for it as ambassador to the Congo, and there's
Speaker 2: been a bit of an interruption. To your point, it's
Speaker 2: been sixteen years. How long will it be before there's another.
Speaker 9: Well, I'm hoping that this is a wake up call
Speaker 9: overall that Africa is here. It will have the largest
Speaker 9: population in the world in collectly, I mean combined in
Speaker 9: about a decade out right now, it's on track to
Speaker 9: have the largest working age population combined. That means you
Speaker 9: combine the entire rest of the world, the African continent
Speaker 9: will have the largest working aid population in about ten years.
Speaker 9: And so when I lecture about I talked to students
Speaker 9: and people interested in Africa, even from the American perspective,
Speaker 9: Where do you think your markets are going to be?
Speaker 9: Who do you think your local and economic leaders are
Speaker 9: going to be where they're going to be, They're going
Speaker 9: to be on the continent, and they're starting now. And
Speaker 9: you see that now and that the Biden administration has
Speaker 9: recognized that. And I mentioned earlier that President Ruto had
Speaker 9: done a stop in Atlanta. I thought that was fantastic.
Speaker 9: He went to Spelman to highlight, you know, educational ties,
Speaker 9: there's a climate change a portion of the visit. I
Speaker 9: already mentioned the business and trade aspect. He went to
Speaker 9: the creative industries of Perry Tyler to show you just
Speaker 9: how important digital Africa and the United States, and of
Speaker 9: course the history there. President Ruttel also had a visit
Speaker 9: to the Hill. He met with Speaker Johnson, he met
Speaker 9: with the minority leader Jefferies, met with the Congressional Black
Speaker 9: Caucus leaders. And so this is a comprehensive visit. It
Speaker 9: was well thought out, very detailed. It doesn't mean that
Speaker 9: there aren't challenges on the line. I also want to
Speaker 9: add the security portion to this. Uh, the fact that
Speaker 9: the President has announced that Keny will be a non
Speaker 9: NATO security partner. We've never done that on a concontent
Speaker 9: before in such an official way. We're episodic about that
Speaker 9: you know, will choose a particular issue in a particular
Speaker 9: country to lats on security wise, but to designate an
Speaker 9: entire country and that lead as a security partner at
Speaker 9: the at the as close to the natal level as
Speaker 9: you can get, I think is is unique. And then Kenya,
Speaker 9: of course, as you know, is going to be leading
Speaker 9: this multinational force to Haiti, and so all of that,
Speaker 9: its role in the region, its role in trying to
Speaker 9: turn its economics around. It's leadership on climate change in
Speaker 9: the region, it's leadership not only in East Africa, but
Speaker 9: you know the continent writ large, and all the other
Speaker 9: things that I mentioned in terms of trade and business
Speaker 9: sides are just fundamental and very important.
Speaker 2: She spent time serving as US Ambassador to Nigeria and
Speaker 2: the Congo Former ambassador Robin Sanders. We really appreciate the insights.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 2: We assemble our panel now with an eye on the
Speaker 2: campaign trail of course, Joe Biden here the trappings of
Speaker 2: the White House. That's the whole point of this, right
Speaker 2: caught in the act of presidenting. He's not on the
Speaker 2: campaign trail today. He's got the one thing that no
Speaker 2: one else can do when they're running, and that is
Speaker 2: actually being on the stage at the White House all
Speaker 2: the while. Donald Trump's world rocked by Nicky Haley. And
Speaker 2: I'm not about to tell you another story here about
Speaker 2: a protest vote in a primary state. She says she's
Speaker 2: going to vote Trump. Nicki Haley talking in Washington at
Speaker 2: the Hudson Institute yesterday before we assemble the panel. Here's
Speaker 2: what she said.
Speaker 10: Biden has been a catastrophe, So I will be voting
Speaker 10: for Trump. Trump would be smart to reach out to
Speaker 10: the millions of people who voted for me and continue
Speaker 10: to support me and not assume that they're just going
Speaker 10: to be with him. And I genuinely hope he does that.
Speaker 2: Okay, well, that's not a endorsement, or is it a
Speaker 2: half endorsement. She's going to vote for him, but he's
Speaker 2: still got to work for the votes of her supporters,
Speaker 2: many of whom have stood by her through a primary
Speaker 2: season that did not even include her active campaign. Jeanie
Speaker 2: Shanzana was with as Bloomberg Politics contributor and now Senior
Speaker 2: Democracy Fellow with the Center for the Study of the
Speaker 2: Presidency and Congress, alongside Republican strategist Chape and Faye, managing
Speaker 2: director at ACTEM. Great to see both of you here.
Speaker 2: Help me understand what's going on Chapin inside the Republican Party.
Speaker 2: Is it enough or doesn't it even matter for Nikki
Speaker 2: Hayley to say she's voting Trump? Why not the full endorsement?
Speaker 2: Why the half measure?
Speaker 4: Well, I think it does matter.
Speaker 11: I think it's a signal to her voters that they
Speaker 11: can vote for Trump, and I think she still wants
Speaker 11: to see him do some of the right things on
Speaker 11: her you know, particular policy positions and in general in
Speaker 11: the campaign. But it is certainly an endorsement of Trump.
Speaker 11: Anyone saying they're going to vote for them is an endorsement.
Speaker 11: I think it matters just a little bit. I think
Speaker 11: she brings some voters to the table. Though you know,
Speaker 11: Trump was handily winning all of these primary votes. You know,
Speaker 11: not much contest, but he's been winning them handily and
Speaker 11: in some cases in a lot of cases combined, more
Speaker 11: he receives more votes than all the other ones on
Speaker 11: the ballot combined.
Speaker 4: So it almost.
Speaker 11: Doesn't matter a whole terrible lot if he loses all
Speaker 11: of Nicky Haley's voters. But it's certainly, you know, as
Speaker 11: they vote, as they fight around the margins for the
Speaker 11: independent voters, those voters are certainly once Trump is.
Speaker 4: Going to need to bank.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wonder your thoughts on this, genie, And to
Speaker 2: the extent to which they could either stay home or
Speaker 2: actually vote for the Democrat in this case, let's not
Speaker 2: confuse ourselves. Nicki Haley was and he is a very
Speaker 2: conservative Republican, and she said something really interesting yesterday. I'd
Speaker 2: like to give you both a chance to react to this,
Speaker 2: because yes, she's going to vote for Donald Trump, and
Speaker 2: yes she said Joe Biden's a catastrophe. But here's what
Speaker 2: else she said. Quote A loud part of each party
Speaker 2: wants us to abandon our allies, appease our enemies, and
Speaker 2: focus only on the problems we have at home. This
Speaker 2: worldview has already put America in great danger, and the
Speaker 2: threat is mounting by the day. Unquote. That's not an
Speaker 2: endorsement of Donald Trump's worldview, Genie, who's she talking to?
Speaker 7: Yeah, First of all, I think we need a new
Speaker 7: word for, you know, lukewarm, tepid. To your point, endorsement.
Speaker 7: I kept feeling like there should be like a cartoon
Speaker 7: bubble over her head saying, you know, I'm only doing
Speaker 7: this because the future in the party. I mean, you know,
Speaker 7: Chris Christy knew this was coming. That's why he said
Speaker 7: he wouldn't endorse her, because he knew she would endorse
Speaker 7: Donald Trump in the end. And she has. And to
Speaker 7: your point, her list, I wrote them down of priorities
Speaker 7: she looks for in a president, has the back of allies,
Speaker 7: is going to secure the border, supports freedom, and of
Speaker 7: course understands the need for less debt. In every single
Speaker 7: one of those issues. She criticized, you know, viciously, Donald
Speaker 7: Trump on those on the allies. She criticized him for saying,
Speaker 7: not only wouldn't he have the back of our NATO allies,
Speaker 7: but he'd encourage Russia to attack them. That was in
Speaker 7: February in the debate. She said, Donald Trump randaut eight
Speaker 7: trillion dollars in debt. So I can't answer, to your point,
Speaker 7: who she is talking to and her sort of lukewarm
Speaker 7: I'll vote for him, but you guys make up your
Speaker 7: own mind. This is a big problem for Republicans. You've
Speaker 7: got closed primaries with one fifth of voters going out
Speaker 7: to vote for somebody who has no chance of winning
Speaker 7: in Nikki Haley, whether it's Indiana, and you know, up
Speaker 7: and down these these states in the last few months
Speaker 7: and she dropped out, So big problem. I don't see
Speaker 7: this as much of an endorsement. I see it as
Speaker 7: her trying to hang on to a role in the
Speaker 7: party when Donald Trump is shown the door at some
Speaker 7: point or the other.
Speaker 2: Well, and I suspect that she will have one chapein
Speaker 2: I'm guessing that you do too. But her take on
Speaker 2: Donald Trump's protectionist view, and she does refer to each
Speaker 2: loud part of each party she said in this quote
Speaker 2: is speaking to whom or is she simply out of
Speaker 2: step with the modern Republican Party.
Speaker 11: Well, I think certainly her presential efforts shows that she's
Speaker 11: not fully in step with the current Republican Party. So,
Speaker 11: you know, I think that is an issue I would
Speaker 11: note though on you know, I think one of the
Speaker 11: things the point she's making is on national security. If
Speaker 11: you just compare where we are now from where we
Speaker 11: were four years ago. I mean things, And we can
Speaker 11: have a debate about whether Joe Biden is to blame
Speaker 11: at all or fully or what for this, but the
Speaker 11: world in the country is just much more dangerous and
Speaker 11: the incumbent gets tagged with that no matter whether he's responsible,
Speaker 11: he or she is responsible. Right, So Joe Biden is
Speaker 11: presiding over, you know, a a country in a world
Speaker 11: where there are multiple wars on multiple fronts. Uh, you know,
Speaker 11: over the southern border, people are pouring over. Things are
Speaker 11: getting worse, and I think a lot of people, including
Speaker 11: Nikki Haley, are wondering, like, what is the plan here?
Speaker 4: You know, no one you know he he on the border.
Speaker 11: There's just nothing happening, right, and the national security state
Speaker 11: status in this country is much worse than it was.
Speaker 4: We are less secure, less safe than we were four
Speaker 4: years ago. So I think that's what she.
Speaker 11: You know, that's she was, you know, the UN ambassador.
Speaker 11: This is something she cares a lot about. This is
Speaker 11: something in her wheelhouse. This is something that she has
Speaker 11: a voice on. So I think you're gonna hear more
Speaker 11: from her on these particular topics in particular uh as
Speaker 11: as the campaign goes, and I would also just point out,
Speaker 11: you know, the the tepid endorsement, the I will vote
Speaker 11: for him, but he has to earn the vote. That's
Speaker 11: a way for her to have a voice also during
Speaker 11: the campaign, right, That's a way for her to keep
Speaker 11: talking about the things she wants to talk about and
Speaker 11: pushing the president's form of President Trump to the right
Speaker 11: place in her eyes.
Speaker 2: You think Chapin she gets a role, a speaking role
Speaker 2: at the convention.
Speaker 11: It's such a hard guessing game to play with Donald Trump.
Speaker 11: You know, it's hard to tell if you know he
Speaker 11: has if she successfully got under his skin, and it's
Speaker 11: a no or Like many others who have tried and
Speaker 11: failed to take him on, they get put into the
Speaker 11: collection you know of speakers and cabinet members and stuff.
Speaker 4: So I think there's a possibility.
Speaker 11: I'm not sure President Trump wants anyone who ran against
Speaker 11: him to really.
Speaker 4: Have a huge a huge platform there, but you never know.
Speaker 11: I mean, on the other side of the the other
Speaker 11: side of that coin is that always feels nice for
Speaker 11: someone to have lost to you, and that to hear them,
Speaker 11: you know publicly, ador Or she woute a speech to
Speaker 11: the entire country. So you know, gloss, I really I
Speaker 11: don't even I think it's fifty to fifty.
Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you. I remember that Ted Cruz speech. Boy,
Speaker 2: that didn't go over the way they expected it to.
Speaker 4: You didn't.
Speaker 2: You don't think Nikki Haley shows up? How about Mike Pence, Genie,
Speaker 2: Is he gonna speak at the convention?
Speaker 7: I would doubt it, you know, I think we have
Speaker 7: to put Mike Pence Liz Cheney, and they said they
Speaker 7: wouldn't support him. I doubt they'll be there. You know,
Speaker 7: Donald Trump, as you know, came out and said, not
Speaker 7: only isn't she going to have a you know, any
Speaker 7: sort of role as vice president or anything else. He
Speaker 7: doesn't want her supporters. She's banned. He'll win without them.
Speaker 7: Who knows he could slip on that, you know, in
Speaker 7: the next day. But I do think this show is enormous,
Speaker 7: you know, an enormous division in the Republican Party that
Speaker 7: we don't talk a lot about. I mean, we talk
Speaker 7: about the division and the Democratic Party, and lord knows
Speaker 7: it's there, but on the Republican side. You know, somebody
Speaker 7: pointed out, and I think it's important to say when
Speaker 7: you're looking at somebody like Larry Hogan, this more traditional Republican.
Speaker 7: In the Maryland primary, he gets sixty seven percent. That
Speaker 7: shows you that there are maga voters in Maryland who
Speaker 7: are not going to come out for him, and just similarly,
Speaker 7: there are traditional quote unquote Republicans that are going out
Speaker 7: for him. And that is across the board. That's why
Speaker 7: she continues long after she's dropped out of the race,
Speaker 7: to see you see people coming out and saying, I
Speaker 7: know she can't win, She's not even in this thing anymore,
Speaker 7: but you know what, I'm going to take a stand
Speaker 7: and cast my vote for her in a closed primary.
Speaker 7: So there is a division there and it probably won't
Speaker 7: be addressed this go around here at the Republican Convention,
Speaker 7: but boy, it's there and it is going to crop up,
Speaker 7: and somebody should be there to take advantage of it.
Speaker 7: When Donald Trump takes a step aside at some point, well.
Speaker 2: Let me just take the opportunity to put a little
Speaker 2: fear up the spine of politicos across the Capitol here
Speaker 2: and even in New York where you are, Genie. The
Speaker 2: great fear expressed in the newest polling by Marquette Law
Speaker 2: School general election. If it were held today, Trump versus
Speaker 2: Biden fifty to fifty, it's a tie. This is the
Speaker 2: stuff that keeps people up at night, chape and faith
Speaker 2: recounts or maybe even going to the House of Representatives
Speaker 2: to decide the outcome.
Speaker 11: Look, no matter what happens, I think it's pretty clear
Speaker 11: that it's going to be if it's close, it's going
Speaker 11: to be pretty nasty and problematic, right And it does
Speaker 11: keep me up, and I think both both parties need
Speaker 11: to act, you know, in accordance. This country really isn't
Speaker 11: set up for fifty to fifty type results. It's very difficult,
Speaker 11: particularly in a presidential race as we have seen you
Speaker 11: know pretty much this entire century.
Speaker 4: That you know, a very close race is going to put.
Speaker 11: A put a deep strain on Americans and our institutions
Speaker 11: that are already understrained. You know, the left and the
Speaker 11: right have different ideas of why they're understreamed, but I
Speaker 11: think we can all agree that, you know.
Speaker 4: They are under some stress right now.
Speaker 11: And you know, listen, there's a chance President I don't
Speaker 11: think it's a high chance, but there's a chance President
Speaker 11: Trump is convicted in a criminal court and sentenced to
Speaker 11: prison and still elected to the presidency. So that in
Speaker 11: and of itself is going to be a constitutional crisis
Speaker 11: like we have never experienced that.
Speaker 4: We're laughing, but it.
Speaker 1: Is kind of scary.
Speaker 2: Like you said, this is the mad house we're living
Speaker 2: in right now, Jeannie, with on our minute left, it
Speaker 2: brings us back full circle now to our Bloomberg Swing state,
Speaker 2: Paul yesterday. This is why half the electorate in the
Speaker 2: swing states fears violence around the election.
Speaker 7: That's right. And can you imagine if this thing gets
Speaker 7: thrown to the House. It's one vote per state delegation.
Speaker 7: This is not a House that is controlled by the
Speaker 7: Republicans by more than just a smidgeon at this point.
Speaker 7: So those battles with those state delegation boats alone would
Speaker 7: be you know, enormous. You know, you just can't wrap
Speaker 7: your head around. We feared this in sixteen and twenty.
Speaker 7: It could come to fruition this time. And Joe, I'm
Speaker 7: just gonna say, since I'm on a kick for constitutional
Speaker 7: reform these days, yeah, consider it sectoral college. While I
Speaker 7: try to pack that, Oh my god, I know it's
Speaker 7: not going to happen, but it may be time to
Speaker 7: have a conversation after November.
Speaker 1: What the heck.
Speaker 2: I love it. We have to have this conversation, absolutely,
Speaker 2: and that's why it's great to have Jenny Shanzeno and
Speaker 2: Shape and Fay are great panel today. Thanks for listening
Speaker 2: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe
Speaker 2: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you
Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every
Speaker 2: weekday from Washington, DC at New Time Eastern at Bloomberg
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