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Speaker 1: The volume. Okay, back again with a man who was

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Speaker 1: scolding hot and got derailed a little bit by some

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Speaker 1: bad luck in a Cincinnati Green Bay game. But he's

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Speaker 1: nine five and one on the season, a little three

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Speaker 1: for the money. He's known as Stucky. He's uh, he's

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Speaker 1: a sharp in my eyes, and he's also you can

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Speaker 1: find them on Thursday the Action Network podcast Talking Gambling

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Speaker 1: every morning on Thursday mornings. UH podcast comes out Stucky.

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Speaker 1: What's up? What's happen? You're Kentucky Wildcats a big win?

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Speaker 1: I mean they're right nigh. Yeah, we might be uh

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Speaker 1: coming back down to hear this Saturday. But it's a

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Speaker 1: nice while at last, and you never know. You have

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Speaker 1: you have a you have at least hope. It's still

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Speaker 1: a football game played with an oblong ball. So Kentucky

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Speaker 1: is gonna need a lot of bounces on Saturday in Athens.

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Speaker 1: But all you can ask for is a shot. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's exciting here. You beat you beat Florida and l

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Speaker 1: s U back to back weeks. You're you're cooking with

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Speaker 1: house money, right, yeah, yeah, it's all it's all house money. Now, Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's let's dive into the national Football league. And let's

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Speaker 1: start with pretty sure they're the only undefeated team in

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Speaker 1: the league. In the Arizona Cardinals going to Cleveland, who

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Speaker 1: just had a devastating loss at almost had the Charger

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Speaker 1: at the San Diego but in l A Arizona, I

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Speaker 1: like the Cardinals. You're getting three points on the road

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Speaker 1: at Cleveland. How about you? Now, I'm going with the

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Speaker 1: Browns here. I got some two and a half away

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Speaker 1: in the week. I still like it at three up

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Speaker 1: to three, there's look this week, I'm we're gonna talk

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Speaker 1: about two more fitting three teams on the road that

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Speaker 1: I think you're just getting too much love in the market.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at this Cardinals team. You know,

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Speaker 1: week one, I talked about the Titans. I thought that

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Speaker 1: they were going through some things offensively, lot of changes.

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Speaker 1: I loved Arizona in that game. I didn't really take

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Speaker 1: too much away from it. Then a sty go to

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville and they're down nine late in the third quarter.

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Speaker 1: They beat Minnesota because Minnesota miss is a chip shot

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Speaker 1: field goal. Super impressive win against the Rams. All the

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Speaker 1: credit hours over there, that's just one game. Last week,

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Speaker 1: they get outplayed at home by a under man San

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Speaker 1: Fran team playing a rookie quarterback making his first start,

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Speaker 1: and they were the better team statistically in almost every measure.

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Speaker 1: So I don't think this Amazon teams. Kind of they're good,

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Speaker 1: but it's fool's gold at five and oh. The team

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Speaker 1: that really could have I think as would have a

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Speaker 1: better shot at betterment of five and oh is the Browns.

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Speaker 1: I mean, there are only two losses are on the

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Speaker 1: road of the Chiefs and Chargers. The Chiefs, they were

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Speaker 1: up double digits in the second half, they boxed that punt.

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Speaker 1: Charters up double digits in the second half, and the

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Speaker 1: charters go like six of six on fourth down they

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Speaker 1: have that bad p I call. So the Browns have

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Speaker 1: been super impressive here. And I just think this is

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Speaker 1: a really really good matchup for Cleveland against a really

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Speaker 1: suspect Arizona run defense that has just been struggling to

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Speaker 1: defend the run once again this year. And when you

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Speaker 1: look at some of the other factors, take a look

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Speaker 1: at the Cleveland weather report, looks like twenty to thirty

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Speaker 1: mile hour winds could be a win. You know, that

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Speaker 1: is just extremely beneficial to the Browns, who you know

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Speaker 1: lead the league and yards for carry and have two

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Speaker 1: of the most dynamic backs in the NFL against a

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Speaker 1: bad run defense. Kyler Murray also dealing with a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a shoulder issue last week, so I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure how much that's going to linger or affect him

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Speaker 1: this week, but it could. And you know, you have

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Speaker 1: some wind as well. Brown's defense playing really well, but

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Speaker 1: I think that their front is going to control this game.

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Speaker 1: No Chandler Jones for Arizona as well, so when Baker

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Speaker 1: Mayfield does have to throw, doesn't have to worry about

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Speaker 1: his pass rushing ability. Uh So, I I think Cleveland

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Speaker 1: gets this done on the ground and Arizona finally doesn't

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Speaker 1: you know, steal one of these wins. Okay, I think

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Speaker 1: you convinced me because you're right, you can run on

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Speaker 1: Arizona and holy moly, Chubb last week. I mean he

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Speaker 1: looks right now the best running back in the and

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Speaker 1: Kareem Hunt is I mean, they easily have the best

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Speaker 1: one to punch. So I think you convinced me there, Okay, Dallas,

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Speaker 1: I also take that staff. I also take the Cleveland

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Speaker 1: staff any day of the week over Arizonas and the

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Speaker 1: one thing that throws off just historically and This is

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Speaker 1: what the Niners did, even though they lost that game.

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Speaker 1: Is when you're physical with the air raid up front.

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Speaker 1: Miles Scarrett's the type guy that you can just throw off.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Nick Bosa was all over Kyler last week. Um.

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Speaker 1: And the thing is that makes Kyler so special is

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Speaker 1: he doesn't you know, he doesn't take a lot of

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Speaker 1: hits when he runs like Lamar, like you saw last

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Speaker 1: week with Trey Lancey slides. But if you can catch

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Speaker 1: him behind in the point, he's throwing in the pocket

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Speaker 1: last year, that's where Seattle got him. He's so small

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Speaker 1: and these you know, Myles Garrett is you know, a

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Speaker 1: complete freak, a zoid, just a sack of Taylor. He

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Speaker 1: gets up sometimes and you can tell last week, all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden he gets thrown to the ground and

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Speaker 1: he wasn't the same the rest of the game. So

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Speaker 1: that's that's to me, something to keep an eye on. Two.

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Speaker 1: Just big picture with Arizona because if he gets thrown off,

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Speaker 1: if he goes to you know from let's say, that

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Speaker 1: is in trouble for them, right yeah. Yeah. And Joe

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Speaker 1: Wood's the defense coordinator the Browns. I'm a big fan

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Speaker 1: off He's familiar with Tyler. You know, he was at

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Speaker 1: he was with the Niners and two nineteen defensive backs,

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Speaker 1: coach passing and coordinators, So that familiarity there, I think

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Speaker 1: I can pay off here. So yeah, I think the

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Speaker 1: Browns get done at home. Okay, Dallas in New England.

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Speaker 1: I'd take New England here basically just because it feels

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Speaker 1: like everyone will bet Dallas. New England squeaks out a

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Speaker 1: win on the road against Houston. I think people, you know,

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Speaker 1: the masses are gonna just think New England's average, which

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Speaker 1: hell they might be, but um tough environment. Patriots you

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Speaker 1: know aren't dead yet, right at two and three? So

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Speaker 1: who do you like in this game? Yeah? I like

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Speaker 1: the Patriots down to three and a half. Anything plus

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Speaker 1: three in an A plus four. I think the Cowboys

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Speaker 1: are getting a little bit too much love here in

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Speaker 1: the market. I think this line should be under a

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Speaker 1: field goal. Look, their offense is excellent with no matter

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Speaker 1: how you slice it, but the defense is really benefiting

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Speaker 1: from turnovers and I don't think that they can sustain

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Speaker 1: that level of the I think they're they lead the

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Speaker 1: NFL and takeaways and just their second knee p a

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Speaker 1: per turnover. Second knepa p per net turnover. It's a

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Speaker 1: defense that you go think back to that Tampa game.

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Speaker 1: It's not like they were forcing these turnovers. These were

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Speaker 1: balls that were popping into their hands and that's what

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Speaker 1: kept that game close. This is still a really suspect defense.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Digs is playing out of his mind at corner,

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Speaker 1: and you have to love the addition of partsons, but

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Speaker 1: you can still run on this team. They're still not

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Speaker 1: getting a ton of pressure, which is important for Jones

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Speaker 1: when he does need to throw, you know he's gonna

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Speaker 1: have time and you can this game will slow down

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Speaker 1: for him. It's important when you're looking at trying to

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Speaker 1: better rookie quarterback. I think New England can control the

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Speaker 1: line of scrimmage here establish a running game against else

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Speaker 1: is run defense. And this if these are games that

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Speaker 1: Bill Belichick just covers. I mean he's thirteen and two

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Speaker 1: against the spread as an underdog since two thousand three,

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Speaker 1: covering by an average of six points per game. That's

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Speaker 1: just under home underdog. A lot of Tom Brady there, though.

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Speaker 1: That's true home underdog. I mean, but look home underdog

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Speaker 1: since two thousand, fifteen and four against the spread twelve

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Speaker 1: outright wins. We saw it against Tom Brady uh and

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Speaker 1: a Bucks team, you know, a couple of weeks ago Jampa.

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Speaker 1: I've excuse me, New England was seven underdogs and they

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Speaker 1: almost won that game if not for a questionable field

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Speaker 1: goal decision late. So you know, I think that there's

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Speaker 1: a big coaching edge here, special teams. Don't be surprised

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Speaker 1: if New England games and edge and special teams here

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Speaker 1: with a big player too. But mainly I think the

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Speaker 1: Dallas is just a little bit overvalued. After four straight wins,

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Speaker 1: three of which came at home, by the way, so

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Speaker 1: now they're you know, dead three straight at home. Now

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Speaker 1: they're traveling to New England, I think the Patriots find

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Speaker 1: a way here to at least make this a field

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Speaker 1: goal game. Wouldn't be surprised if they pull off this

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Speaker 1: mini upset. The only thing that would make me nervous

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Speaker 1: here with New England stuck, you would be clearly they

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Speaker 1: are not. You know, in that Tampa game is a

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Speaker 1: good example, right they kept in the teens that they

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Speaker 1: lost nineteen to seventeen, and they were in it right

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Speaker 1: till the end. Four of New England or four of

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Speaker 1: Dallas is five games. Obviously, that week one loss they

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Speaker 1: scored twenty nine and in the last three weeks forty one,

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Speaker 1: thirty six, forty four like Dallas camp score. I mean,

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Speaker 1: obviously for Dallas to win or I mean for Dallas

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Speaker 1: to lose this game in New England, Belichick, you know,

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Speaker 1: probably a nineteen to low twenties type range, Like they're

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Speaker 1: not gonna win if if Dallas gets in the high twenties,

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Speaker 1: early thirties, right, So they're just gonna have to come

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Speaker 1: down to kind of ugly muddy it up. Yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: Matt is gonna have to make a couple of plays

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Speaker 1: here because Dac and that offensor are going to score.

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Speaker 1: And I don't think you can expect to hold the

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Speaker 1: Dallas offense under twenty points. But this Dallas defense, as

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Speaker 1: I said, it's just if you look at some of

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Speaker 1: the underlying metrics, you know they're not gonna keep getting picks.

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Speaker 1: There's still some holes here. So I think there's gonna

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Speaker 1: be some opportunities for New England and Matt Jones to score.

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Speaker 1: So I think New England bounces back from last week's

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Speaker 1: uh or showing. I mean, it was an awful spot.

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Speaker 1: It was after that Tampa game with Dallas on deck,

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Speaker 1: so I think Bill will have them focused here in October.

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Speaker 1: This is Belichicks month. I mean call in October Bill,

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Speaker 1: he's sixty eight let me see, sixty percent against the

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Speaker 1: spread in October and he's only I think fifty seth

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Speaker 1: still great, fifty seven percent buy in all other months. September,

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Speaker 1: the Patriots, even with Brady, they would always work on

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Speaker 1: some things, trying to figure out some things over the

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Speaker 1: first four or five games, and then they kind of

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Speaker 1: find themselves and get rolling. Um. So you know, back

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Speaker 1: in Bill Belichick is a home dog in October. You

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Speaker 1: could do worse things with your money, Okay, uh, I

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Speaker 1: have a ambling philosophy. At anytime a team off a

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Speaker 1: Monday Night, either a big win or a big loss,

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Speaker 1: it's that's a huge emotional toll, and then it's a

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Speaker 1: short week. Even if you're playing at home and then

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Speaker 1: the next week's at home, I just you know, if

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Speaker 1: the team that you were playing the following week is

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Speaker 1: also good, I'm just gonna gamble on that team. Now.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if that if the numbers bear that out,

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Speaker 1: but Chargers this week at the Ravens obviously incredible win

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Speaker 1: for them right Monday night. Uh, the emotional high and

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Speaker 1: they've had several of those this year so far. Kind

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Speaker 1: of feel like they just, you know, eventually just gonna

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Speaker 1: run out of juice in the game. Even though I

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Speaker 1: like the Ravens Chargers. I whether it's two and a

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Speaker 1: half or three, whatever your book you're looking at. I

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Speaker 1: like the Chargers, you know, getting some points this week

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Speaker 1: on the road. How are you? Yeah, I'm gonna disagree

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Speaker 1: with you here. Um. Look, I'm a I'm a Ravens fan.

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Speaker 1: That my most successful team I've bet on, I really

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Speaker 1: bet I'm I've only been on them once this year

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Speaker 1: against the Chiefs, and I was watching that game. They're

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Speaker 1: gonna make the playoffs, and I'm a better First I

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Speaker 1: was saying, I hope they lose this game. Um, and

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Speaker 1: and then it'll you know, John Harball that you know,

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Speaker 1: after a loss at home and it's a form one

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Speaker 1: Chargers team, they wouldn't have spent all that energy. So

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Speaker 1: I get your point, um that I think it would

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Speaker 1: have been better if they actually lost that game. So

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Speaker 1: maybe you know, they spent a lot of energy their defense.

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Speaker 1: It's a short week, but hardball is generally. You know,

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Speaker 1: he's one of the better coaches in the league, and

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Speaker 1: he's good at getting his team back up For this game,

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Speaker 1: they will be at home at least with what I

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Speaker 1: expect to be a pretty raucous crowd. I just think

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Speaker 1: the Chargers are getting a little bit too much love

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Speaker 1: here after what they've done. Look, justin Herbert is incredible.

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Speaker 1: He's turning into one of the most elite quarterbacks in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. But this Chargers offense, I don't think that

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Speaker 1: they can sustain what they are doing on third downs.

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Speaker 1: I mean it is you look at some of their

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Speaker 1: underlying metros on third downs. Just watched that game last week.

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Speaker 1: It was third and ten, third and nine third. I

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Speaker 1: didn't even get to fourth downs yet. Fourth downs are

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Speaker 1: eight for eight if you remove a fake punt on

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Speaker 1: the season within average yards to go six and a half.

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Speaker 1: The their opponents are only three of eight with an

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Speaker 1: average yarde to go of three. I mean, these are

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Speaker 1: game changing drives. Get a fourth down here, they're I

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Speaker 1: mean that the difference in those are is just massive,

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Speaker 1: and they they're flipping games around, as we saw against

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Speaker 1: the Browns last speaking. If you look at some of

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Speaker 1: the underlying metrics. Early downs are a little more predictive

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Speaker 1: than third downs. Early downs Ravens offense number one in

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Speaker 1: the league and EPA per play Chargers bottom ten. Ravens

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Speaker 1: on third down a little more luck involved and a

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Speaker 1: lot more variants. Ravens are dead last in the league

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Speaker 1: on third down success rate EPA per play Chargers are

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Speaker 1: obviously right at the top, and fourth down the same thing.

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Speaker 1: So I think this Ravens offense actually has some positive

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Speaker 1: regression coming its way on third down, and the opposite

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Speaker 1: is true for the Chargers. And I think this is

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Speaker 1: like the Ravens of a chilling teams on early downs

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Speaker 1: by throwing the ball, everyone's selling out to run it.

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Speaker 1: The Chargers kind of let you run. They they're playing back.

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Speaker 1: They're not giving up anything deep. And I think that

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Speaker 1: you're gonna see the vintage Ravens rushing attack come back

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Speaker 1: here because the Chargers run defense. They do invite you

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Speaker 1: to run, but it's also awful their linebackers, their defensive lineman,

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Speaker 1: very underwhelming group. So I think the Ravens can really

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Speaker 1: get going on the ground here. I think you're getting

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Speaker 1: them cheap. I mean, before the season, this the projected

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Speaker 1: line for this game. The look at line was Ravens

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Speaker 1: mind is six, and I think everyone is really a

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Speaker 1: nabor and rightfully so in some aspect with what Herbert

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Speaker 1: has done. I'm just not sure this Chargers team could

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Speaker 1: sustain all of this third down and fourth down success

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Speaker 1: throughout the season. That regression monster looms. So if you

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Speaker 1: can get the Ravens under two and under three, I

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Speaker 1: do like them in the one last point. Enormous, enormous

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Speaker 1: special teams advantage here. I mean I have the Ravens

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Speaker 1: ranked number one in the league and special teams as

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Speaker 1: they usually are every year, by decent margin. I have

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Speaker 1: the Chargers ranked thirty second, dead last by a wide margin.

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Speaker 1: They don't have a kicker, and now you're going to

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Speaker 1: kid Herbert. Can Herbert kick? Yeah, their kicker couldn't kick

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Speaker 1: in college. There he's on the team for kickoffs. I

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Speaker 1: don't know why they don't have a couldn't find and

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Speaker 1: I want to see sixty percent college couldn't make extra

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Speaker 1: points in college. And now you're going against and then

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Speaker 1: the Raveins, obviously the greatest kicker in NFL history, do

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Speaker 1: everything well on special teams. So that is a not

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Speaker 1: a lot of people are gonna look at that aspect

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Speaker 1: of this game, but there's an enormous special team's edge

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Speaker 1: in this game for the Ravens, and that could make

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Speaker 1: all the difference in the world on the spread of

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Speaker 1: two and a half? Can I uh, can I go

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Speaker 1: a bonus game here? Really quick? Uh? The Sunday night game,

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Speaker 1: which to me is kind of fascinating given that obviously

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Speaker 1: Russell's gotta you know out Geno Smith. But we all

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Speaker 1: thought Pittsburgh really sucked until they got I mean, they

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Speaker 1: got a pretty impressive win against a really good defense.

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Speaker 1: Now granted the game was at home against Denver. Um.

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Speaker 1: I mean, is Seattle just gonna get their ask kicked?

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Speaker 1: I mean, because that's I think most people would just

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Speaker 1: be like, you know, Geno Smith game the defense or

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Speaker 1: is it? Is it fade the Steelers here? Yeah? I

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Speaker 1: mean it's if you look back to Tomlin historically, like

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Speaker 1: he like, look, he beat the Bills. The Steelers beat

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Speaker 1: the Bills, they beat they look good against the Broncos,

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Speaker 1: and they have the head scratching losses. This Tomlin losing

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Speaker 1: this game would beat would fit them out of what

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Speaker 1: Tomlin does. Um. But it's so and it's hard for

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Speaker 1: me to back the Steelers that you know, at nine

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Speaker 1: to six with that offense, and we did look better

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Speaker 1: last week. Um, you would think that Seattle. This is

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Speaker 1: Seattle's you know, they lose their star player. Everyone is

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Speaker 1: gonna come to play. Pete cow is pretty good off

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Speaker 1: of a loss. I just don't know how much Geno

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Speaker 1: Smith can give you under pressure in a loud environment.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be tough. He's never been great under pressure

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Speaker 1: in his entire career. And look this Seattle team. I

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Speaker 1: had them a little above average. And then Russell Wilson

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Speaker 1: always gives you a shot any any any Sunday. Without him,

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Speaker 1: this is arguably a bottom five team in the league

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Speaker 1: with spent. The defense is bad, the offensive line isn't great.

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Speaker 1: It's basically hope that a backup quarterback can throw to

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Speaker 1: your really good receivers. That's really the only strong suit

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Speaker 1: of this team. Now. Uh So, Yeah, it's hard for

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Speaker 1: me to make a case for either team here. Like,

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Speaker 1: like Seattle six is probably maybe fair than to me.

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Speaker 1: Seattle is probably gonna give you everything that they have.

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Speaker 1: Everyone's gonna show up for this without rust the first game.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of a star effect. And the Steelers. I

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Speaker 1: just don't want to lay six with Tom Win and

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Speaker 1: this offense. So for me, pierced DIOA, yeah, I would

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Speaker 1: tend to Seattle feels like, uh, you know without Russell,

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Speaker 1: like the Calves without Lebron or Houston Rockets without Harden.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's just they are a basketball team that

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Speaker 1: is predicated on one guy to carry the ship. And

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Speaker 1: when he's gone. You saw it on that that Thursday

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Speaker 1: night game last week, it's just they they're holding on

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Speaker 1: for dear life. Yeah, you do. You do see like

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Speaker 1: a basketball a star effect bump, like the first game

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Speaker 1: without the star everyone it's max effort and then you

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Speaker 1: see people, you know, teams over reformed right after that

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Speaker 1: next game. You let an it's, oh my god, we

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Speaker 1: don't have Russ, so um, they could get a bump

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Speaker 1: from that in the first game. But it's definitely gonna

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Speaker 1: be tough in that environment against that defense. Okay, Stucky,

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Speaker 1: thanks for joining me and uh have a great weekend.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely goodluck to see a buddy. The volume