WEBVTT - OK(We’ll)C | Mon NBA Best Bets 0:00:00.930 --> 0:00:04.490 What these young bloods have to understand, that this game 0:00:05.309 --> 0:00:10.290 has always been and will always be about buckets. Just 0:00:10.380 --> 0:00:11.300 attack the basket. 0:00:11.340 --> 0:00:12.220 Stop it! 0:00:12.619 --> 0:00:14.180 Stop it! 0:00:14.720 --> 0:00:18.760 Do it like that! 0:00:18.880 --> 0:00:24.590 Oh! With no regard for human life! Bang! Bang! 0:00:24.630 --> 0:00:27.650 I cannot believe you've done it again! 0:00:27.810 --> 0:00:34.280 Are you kidding me? Oh! Welcome to Buckets presented by DraftKings. 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:36.600 My name is Matt Moore. Thanks for joining us for this, 0:00:37.260 --> 0:00:40.760 our Monday best bets episode in the association. We'll get 0:00:40.800 --> 0:00:43.220 to size props and totals to do that. I've got 0:00:43.260 --> 0:00:45.980 Brian Fonseca and I've got Michael Fiddle. Brian Fonseca you 0:00:46.000 --> 0:00:49.879 can find from the New York Post sports page, as 0:00:49.920 --> 0:00:54.480 well as his own page over at YouTube at youtube.com 0:00:54.800 --> 0:00:58.880 slash at Brian Fonseca. He's Brian Fonseca NY on Twitter 0:00:59.060 --> 0:01:01.920 and on blue sky. Did I get all that right? 0:01:02.160 --> 0:01:02.279 Okay. 0:01:02.460 --> 0:01:09.720 And Michael Fiddle, the maestro of the market, the prognosticator 0:01:10.440 --> 0:01:13.800 of live movement. I got to workshop that one. Michael Fiddle, 0:01:14.100 --> 0:01:16.300 joining us as he does every day. You can catch 0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:19.920 him on Better Day at betterday.com. I love those guys. 0:01:20.120 --> 0:01:25.230 So support Mike over there with Scott Seidenberger, the guys 0:01:25.270 --> 0:01:28.280 over at Better Day. Also, check out his own show 0:01:28.300 --> 0:01:30.660 that he does throughout the week on his own page 0:01:30.800 --> 0:01:34.039 at Fiddles Picks on Twitter. I'm still going to call 0:01:34.060 --> 0:01:36.520 it Twitter. I'm going to be old and dead and 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:37.780 still calling it Twitter in the afterlife. 0:01:37.800 --> 0:01:38.420 Back in my day. 0:01:38.440 --> 0:01:41.580 On tonight's show, we will get to all sorts of 0:01:42.080 --> 0:01:46.600 great sides, props, bets, all for you. So I have 0:01:46.620 --> 0:01:48.800 been debating whether to talk about how we've been doing 0:01:48.900 --> 0:01:52.740 on the show. Because if you know me, in the 0:01:52.780 --> 0:01:56.470 words of Michael Scott, I'm not superstitious. but I'm a 0:01:56.530 --> 0:01:59.630 little stitious. And so I don't like to necessarily, and like, 0:01:59.730 --> 0:02:03.330 also I don't talk about it when we're sucking ass. 0:02:03.370 --> 0:02:05.090 So I try not to brag a lot when we're 0:02:05.110 --> 0:02:08.550 doing great. I will say results have been very good. 0:02:08.870 --> 0:02:11.780 Our three stars in particular have been absolutely killing it. 0:02:12.010 --> 0:02:13.610 We've been doing real well. You can follow in the 0:02:13.669 --> 0:02:16.450 action network app at buckets pod. You can find that 0:02:16.550 --> 0:02:18.369 in the action network app and tell us, and you'll 0:02:18.389 --> 0:02:20.370 find all of our bets on there. We've been doing 0:02:20.410 --> 0:02:23.810 really well. And so excited to keep that going. I'm 0:02:23.910 --> 0:02:26.130 four and one on the day. Fiddle, you would have 0:02:26.169 --> 0:02:30.709 been so proud of me today. Model found value on 0:02:31.350 --> 0:02:36.450 Celtics Moneyline and Magic Spread. Now, we lost the Magic 0:02:36.490 --> 0:02:39.130 Spread component because they pulled away late, but I was 0:02:39.270 --> 0:02:43.750 purely price shopping. It was this side. This price is 0:02:43.770 --> 0:02:46.710 not commiserate with the spread. I've got this model where 0:02:46.750 --> 0:02:49.240 this is value. Took both sides of it. Felt totally 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:53.419 fine with it. Did well tonight on sides. Very well 0:02:53.500 --> 0:02:55.560 on those. I'm taking a break, I think from totals 0:02:56.150 --> 0:02:58.230 because like early in the season, there were spots I 0:02:58.270 --> 0:02:59.790 wanted to kind of take when I didn't feel like 0:02:59.810 --> 0:03:01.950 the market was adjusting. Now I feel like the market 0:03:02.010 --> 0:03:05.350 is starting to not rapidly adjust. It's still behind. We're 0:03:05.370 --> 0:03:08.550 still in like unders are, you know, the pace of 0:03:08.590 --> 0:03:11.760 play is down. Offensive fouls are up. So scoring a 0:03:11.760 --> 0:03:14.020 little bit down, but I did just, I purely price 0:03:14.040 --> 0:03:16.700 shopped and laid the money line with the Celtics today 0:03:17.040 --> 0:03:19.700 based purely on that, money line was inaccurate to me 0:03:19.860 --> 0:03:21.600 that was not incommensurate with what it should have been 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:23.100 so yeah. 0:03:23.030 --> 0:03:25.109 All day i was kicking myself i did not take 0:03:25.230 --> 0:03:27.750 celtics money line and then i saw jason tatum leave 0:03:27.790 --> 0:03:30.370 the game with like a bloody face yeah early and 0:03:30.410 --> 0:03:32.050 i saw the alert and the replay and i was 0:03:32.090 --> 0:03:34.290 like oh my thank god i didn't take celtic and 0:03:34.330 --> 0:03:36.570 then he came back and he was incredibly clutch late 0:03:37.250 --> 0:03:39.150 um so then i was like no i should have 0:03:39.190 --> 0:03:41.990 taken celtics and they ended up covering the six and 0:03:42.010 --> 0:03:44.140 a half and sevens in market but Hey, if you 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:46.300 could take both sides, if you could find good value, 0:03:46.380 --> 0:03:48.380 you know, that's something I love to do. It's rare 0:03:48.400 --> 0:03:51.520 that you could find, was it at, was it simultaneous, Matt? 0:03:51.540 --> 0:03:54.810 Was it like, or was it after some line movement? 0:03:54.820 --> 0:03:56.230 You did one and then came back in. 0:03:56.230 --> 0:03:57.970 On another, came back in and then came back out 0:03:58.010 --> 0:03:58.850 on the other. Yeah. 0:03:58.950 --> 0:04:01.010 That's Hey, Hey, that's sharp. 0:04:01.550 --> 0:04:01.710 Yeah. 0:04:01.830 --> 0:04:02.210 There you go. 0:04:02.270 --> 0:04:04.370 I'll get to the buckets record that you got right now. 0:04:04.950 --> 0:04:08.589 Let's talk a little bit about OKC whose pets heads 0:04:08.630 --> 0:04:12.220 have fallen off. So Last week, it starts with Jalen Williams' 0:04:12.260 --> 0:04:14.360 horrific injury. We kind of talked about that one. We 0:04:14.400 --> 0:04:18.800 talked about a little bit about Case and Wallace. Then 0:04:18.860 --> 0:04:21.800 Alex Caruso goes down with a minor injury. And now 0:04:21.839 --> 0:04:24.159 Chet Holmgren's out two months. And it just has piled 0:04:24.220 --> 0:04:25.750 up and piled up and piled up and piled up. 0:04:27.140 --> 0:04:32.650 So let's try and put a number on this. My 0:04:34.570 --> 0:04:41.750 fully healthy power rating on them is somewhere... a round ish, 0:04:42.290 --> 0:04:45.600 about nine points. I've got them losing about six points 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:48.820 of value combined with these injuries, which to me sounds. 0:04:50.020 --> 0:04:50.620 About right. 0:04:50.880 --> 0:04:52.740 Just based off of the sheer number of them, depending 0:04:52.779 --> 0:04:53.760 on who's in, who's out. 0:04:54.220 --> 0:04:54.480 Right. 0:04:54.740 --> 0:04:56.799 When they get some guys back, it'll be better, better 0:04:56.820 --> 0:04:59.730 or worse. I still have them as like a good team. 0:05:00.370 --> 0:05:00.630 Right. 0:05:00.750 --> 0:05:02.810 And I still actually have them the, where I've got 0:05:02.850 --> 0:05:05.510 them modeled right now is I'm actually going to be 0:05:05.570 --> 0:05:07.270 on them tomorrow. We'll talk about that. My best bets. 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:11.320 I think futures perspective, game perspective, value perspective. I'd like 0:05:11.339 --> 0:05:12.940 to get you guys' thoughts on it. Phil, how do 0:05:12.960 --> 0:05:15.599 you kind of cap the injury situation to OKC? 0:05:16.440 --> 0:05:20.789 Yeah, so I've downgraded OKC 6.7 points. And so I 0:05:20.850 --> 0:05:23.430 do still have them better than an average team on 0:05:23.470 --> 0:05:27.970 a neutral court. But this is pretty staggering. And you 0:05:27.990 --> 0:05:30.510 can kind of go two ways with this, Matt. Like historically, 0:05:30.550 --> 0:05:32.810 the way that we rate OKC and the way that 0:05:32.860 --> 0:05:36.380 we price certain players when they miss or they're in, Like, 0:05:36.580 --> 0:05:39.880 J-Dub is worth less than you would normally imagine because 0:05:40.430 --> 0:05:42.990 you have Chet and you have SGA and you have, 0:05:43.430 --> 0:05:46.729 you know, iHeart and Caruso and Case and Wallace and 0:05:46.750 --> 0:05:48.910 all these guys to fill in and kind of lift 0:05:48.950 --> 0:05:51.409 the boat and take the usage, AJ Mitchell, McCain, all 0:05:51.430 --> 0:05:54.230 of them. And so it's like, okay, well, J-Dub's actually 0:05:54.250 --> 0:05:57.150 not worth that much ATS because the usage, the replacement 0:05:57.180 --> 0:05:59.900 value is actually still very high. Then you say, okay, well, 0:05:59.940 --> 0:06:02.900 now you're losing so many pieces, you know, do you 0:06:02.920 --> 0:06:07.050 need to then further the the value of J dub 0:06:07.110 --> 0:06:08.910 for what he is and maybe a little bit, but 0:06:08.950 --> 0:06:11.310 then the inverse of that is like, well, now you're 0:06:11.330 --> 0:06:14.080 just asking SGA to do more lifting and to have 0:06:14.140 --> 0:06:16.420 a higher usage rate. So then also the value of 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:20.680 SGA should also go up respectively when he's playing. And 0:06:20.900 --> 0:06:23.900 so it's kind of takes away from the negation of 0:06:23.940 --> 0:06:26.270 certain players. So it's like, it's like kind of a 0:06:26.330 --> 0:06:28.990 cluster thing and it's, it gets you in a weird 0:06:29.010 --> 0:06:33.500 situation where, It's worth talking about because it's almost impossible 0:06:33.560 --> 0:06:34.380 for the market to. 0:06:34.490 --> 0:06:36.310 Accurately predict this. 0:06:36.370 --> 0:06:38.830 And like, I think we're going to see pretty significant 0:06:38.870 --> 0:06:42.110 line movement on OKC nearly every game. 0:06:42.390 --> 0:06:44.320 And I think it's like, how do we figure this out? 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:46.360 I also think from we can get into it, but 0:06:46.400 --> 0:06:50.640 from a live betting perspective, they used to have such 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:53.529 a strong bench. And so it used to be like 0:06:53.570 --> 0:06:56.910 pretty interchangeable, like who would dominate the other team. And 0:06:56.950 --> 0:07:00.090 now their bench is guys we've never really heard. 0:06:59.970 --> 0:07:00.510 Of, right? 0:07:00.570 --> 0:07:02.610 Like Mara got a lot of love in the off 0:07:02.630 --> 0:07:06.810 season and preseason as an exciting rookie. But besides him, 0:07:06.860 --> 0:07:09.820 like it's a bleak list of players coming off the 0:07:09.840 --> 0:07:12.960 bench for them. And suddenly I'm like, well, my main 0:07:12.980 --> 0:07:16.020 thought was live models can't possibly have adjusted for how 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:20.420 bad OKC's bench is now. So that when the starters 0:07:20.480 --> 0:07:24.430 come off, I almost think we should be fading OKC immediately. 0:07:24.550 --> 0:07:27.630 And like SGA's rotation is pretty known. So it's like 0:07:28.110 --> 0:07:29.890 right when you know that SGA is going to check 0:07:29.950 --> 0:07:32.220 out of the next whistle, it should be pretty much 0:07:32.260 --> 0:07:34.800 an immediate bet like tomorrow on the Cavs at that point. 0:07:37.320 --> 0:07:38.740 Yeah, I think one of the things that's tough here 0:07:38.860 --> 0:07:41.050 is trying to figure out how the market is going 0:07:41.060 --> 0:07:43.130 to go because you're right about the cluster side of this, 0:07:43.550 --> 0:07:49.480 of the compounding impact of defensive loss of, j-dub and 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:53.360 casein and then chet so you lose multifaceted help defender 0:07:53.850 --> 0:07:55.570 honestly i will tell you this when i do film 0:07:55.590 --> 0:07:57.610 work on okc the number one thing that stands out 0:07:57.630 --> 0:07:59.470 to me when i watch their defense the number one 0:07:59.510 --> 0:08:03.530 thing beyond everything else is j-dub um it is amazing 0:08:03.790 --> 0:08:06.130 he is he is in my opinion maybe the best 0:08:06.190 --> 0:08:08.740 help defender that is not a shot blocker in the 0:08:08.820 --> 0:08:12.680 nba like he is incredible in terms of his anticipation 0:08:13.020 --> 0:08:14.880 Like there'll be these sequences where Shay's in a really 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:18.960 tough matchup on the, like J-Dub has pushed weak side, right? 0:08:18.980 --> 0:08:21.020 He's on the very far side of the court having 0:08:21.040 --> 0:08:23.880 a matchup zone and Shay gets beat on an edge 0:08:24.880 --> 0:08:26.790 and the guy, and right at the point where the 0:08:26.820 --> 0:08:28.230 guy is going to like go up for the layup, 0:08:28.610 --> 0:08:35.670 J-Dub has magically Nightcrawler X-Man bamfed and just appeared to 0:08:35.910 --> 0:08:38.230 fuck up his shot. It's incredible. He is amazing. 0:08:38.830 --> 0:08:41.989 There's a really cool video, Matt, of SGA being asked 0:08:42.030 --> 0:08:43.910 who's the best defender on the team. And this is 0:08:43.950 --> 0:08:46.430 last year. And he's like, well, if you want point 0:08:46.460 --> 0:08:50.140 of attack defense, it's KSO. If you want rim protection, 0:08:50.400 --> 0:08:52.720 it's Chet. And then he's just sitting there. He's like, 0:08:52.780 --> 0:08:54.480 it's fake. And then he goes, you know what? No, 0:08:55.140 --> 0:08:57.600 it's Dub. Dub's the best defender on the team. And 0:08:57.640 --> 0:08:59.660 so he pretty much walks through that whole progression that 0:08:59.700 --> 0:09:00.320 you just went through. 0:09:00.760 --> 0:09:01.939 Yeah. 0:09:03.200 --> 0:09:06.280 Fonseca, I think futures. I don't want to get anywhere 0:09:06.320 --> 0:09:08.780 near any of this. Like most of these guys, J-Dub's 0:09:08.820 --> 0:09:13.170 obviously not going to be back, right? But I do, like, 0:09:13.250 --> 0:09:16.190 Kasem will be back. Caruso's already, I think he's already back. 0:09:16.790 --> 0:09:17.230 And then. 0:09:17.570 --> 0:09:19.329 Caruso's still out. 0:09:19.390 --> 0:09:19.810 He'll be back. 0:09:20.250 --> 0:09:21.230 Yeah, he'll be back sooner. 0:09:21.250 --> 0:09:27.890 And then Chet, two months later, right, will be, he'll 0:09:27.910 --> 0:09:28.240 be back. 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:29.600 January-ish, maybe. 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:31.559 And they'll have time to figure this out, and they're 0:09:31.580 --> 0:09:33.000 still very good. Like, one of the things that I 0:09:33.000 --> 0:09:35.500 was kind of starting to hint at there, too, was, 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:37.920 all right, there is the compounding value of it, But 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:40.240 part of it, you know, Fiddle is just like they 0:09:40.280 --> 0:09:42.620 start from such a high place anyway. They're power rated. 0:09:42.679 --> 0:09:45.140 So like I have them 10.9 actually is what I 0:09:45.140 --> 0:09:49.180 looked up, right? Preposterous. Like they're so much better than 0:09:49.220 --> 0:09:51.250 everybody else. So they can lose all these guys and 0:09:51.290 --> 0:09:52.569 I'm still going to find value on them because they're 0:09:52.590 --> 0:09:55.050 starting from such a high place. But Brian, I think 0:09:55.070 --> 0:09:57.090 from a futures perspective, it does bring some interesting things 0:09:57.110 --> 0:09:59.110 to the table. Most notably, I think Division is probably 0:09:59.150 --> 0:10:02.260 like the most interesting thing you can kind of get 0:10:02.320 --> 0:10:04.720 to here, but you just got to be very careful 0:10:04.740 --> 0:10:06.819 to kind of keep an eye out for over. I 0:10:06.840 --> 0:10:08.400 don't know which way the market's going to react. If 0:10:08.420 --> 0:10:09.980 they lose a couple, is it going to be like 0:10:10.020 --> 0:10:12.700 a massive downgrade? Is it like, because right now I'm 0:10:12.720 --> 0:10:15.380 trying to be, I'm trying to be very forgiving with them. 0:10:15.490 --> 0:10:18.070 Cause I'm like, they're emotionally reeling right now. But the 0:10:18.090 --> 0:10:20.579 thing with the NBA is, The games just keep coming 0:10:21.340 --> 0:10:24.079 and you just keep playing. And so they'll get, I 0:10:24.120 --> 0:10:27.300 think they'll get better because I think Dagnall will, he'll 0:10:27.350 --> 0:10:30.730 diagnose the problems and figure out solutions. But I think 0:10:30.750 --> 0:10:33.290 trying to figure out an accurate way to approach how 0:10:33.309 --> 0:10:34.910 to bet them from a futures perspective is tough. 0:10:35.630 --> 0:10:38.949 And it's hard because you have guys, a lot of 0:10:38.990 --> 0:10:41.349 guys just playing more than you expected, which is always 0:10:41.370 --> 0:10:44.090 going to be difficult early on in their careers. I 0:10:44.130 --> 0:10:50.069 think one of the underrated things about all this that, Personally, like, 0:10:50.850 --> 0:10:52.929 is something I've been paying close attention to is we're 0:10:52.970 --> 0:10:56.530 still getting nothing out of Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber. 0:10:57.070 --> 0:10:57.550 Like, nothing. 0:10:57.590 --> 0:10:59.949 Like, they can't even get healthy enough to see minutes. 0:11:00.750 --> 0:11:03.400 They can't even get healthy enough to be active at times. 0:11:03.540 --> 0:11:07.839 And Topic, who was probably projected at one point, at 0:11:07.940 --> 0:11:11.220 one point, a top five pick prior to partially tearing 0:11:11.240 --> 0:11:15.700 his ACL, he later had testicular cancer. Now he gets his... 0:11:16.450 --> 0:11:19.700 fourth year option declined. So he's effectively a free agent 0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:24.150 after the season anyway, which is interesting because like not to, 0:11:24.820 --> 0:11:26.800 not to make a light of this, but this could 0:11:26.820 --> 0:11:30.020 be a transaction waiting to happen, potentially via trade, if 0:11:30.120 --> 0:11:32.870 OKC wants to actually pursue things. I know, Matt, you've 0:11:32.910 --> 0:11:35.890 talked about that's not really what Sam Presti does, but 0:11:35.910 --> 0:11:38.050 this is a unique situation where three of your best 0:11:38.070 --> 0:11:40.870 guys are out, and maybe you have to change course 0:11:40.890 --> 0:11:42.390 a little bit if you want to continue to keep 0:11:42.429 --> 0:11:45.220 this window open. We'll see what happens there, but them 0:11:45.250 --> 0:11:48.700 getting nothing out of Topic and Sorber is a little 0:11:48.740 --> 0:11:52.020 bit more concerning to me because they have all these 0:11:52.059 --> 0:11:56.020 draft picks, And part of this was, well, they'll just 0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:58.920 keep drafting really good players. Both of these guys were 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:03.189 basically lottery picks, and they can't see the floor, which 0:12:03.330 --> 0:12:06.790 I think is putting a hole in your roster beyond 0:12:06.850 --> 0:12:09.609 already not having Cason Wallace and Chet Holmgren and Jalen 0:12:09.650 --> 0:12:13.000 Williams and Alex Caruso now, who's currently been out with 0:12:13.010 --> 0:12:16.020 an ankle injury. So you're playing Bennett's thirds more than 0:12:16.040 --> 0:12:17.219 you probably plan on doing. 0:12:18.190 --> 0:12:18.770 Immediately. 0:12:19.270 --> 0:12:21.310 Jared McCain's in your starting lineup. I think he's going 0:12:21.330 --> 0:12:23.620 to get better. He's 0 for his last 11 from three, 0:12:23.630 --> 0:12:26.280 his last two starts. I don't think he's going to 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:28.559 continue to struggle this way from three. But the fact 0:12:28.580 --> 0:12:30.840 that they need his three-point shooting to the degree that 0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:34.300 they do, you know, he could be overtaxed in that area. 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:37.320 We're seeing Adai Mara have to play, you know, significant 0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:40.920 minutes relative to what we probably expected. And this is 0:12:40.990 --> 0:12:42.650 a team that also just got rid of Lou Dort, 0:12:42.730 --> 0:12:45.189 Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins, all of whom were consistent 0:12:45.210 --> 0:12:48.420 contributors for this team. So, like, There's a depth question 0:12:48.460 --> 0:12:51.720 that I'm worried about because as they continue to play 0:12:51.740 --> 0:12:54.319 and these games get piled up, and you know you're 0:12:54.340 --> 0:12:58.350 talking about the pace and everything like that, as guys 0:12:58.370 --> 0:13:01.090 get overtaxed, this is how more injuries can happen. And 0:13:01.130 --> 0:13:03.150 if you have guys on your roster who aren't ready, 0:13:03.850 --> 0:13:08.850 I'm not looking at OKC like, yeah, it's time to 0:13:08.890 --> 0:13:11.210 sort of make a decision on them. I'm just going 0:13:11.230 --> 0:13:14.030 to kind of watch this because there's too many moving 0:13:14.070 --> 0:13:14.689 parts right now. 0:13:15.450 --> 0:13:19.070 Yeah, I agree with that. um there's too many moving 0:13:19.110 --> 0:13:24.910 parts i've got right now wolves projected 52.7 nuggets 52.2 0:13:24.910 --> 0:13:28.230 thunder 52.1 that's schedule adjusted but that's also based off 0:13:28.290 --> 0:13:30.990 of like if they were to play like this in 0:13:31.030 --> 0:13:34.750 this state forever i can't like i'm not gonna i'm 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:37.080 not gonna do a projection based off of well if 0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:38.820 so and so returns on x date because i just 0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:41.080 don't know right it's like check can be check can 0:13:41.100 --> 0:13:43.880 be eight you know eight weeks it could be the 0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:46.230 rest of the season like we don't know right So 0:13:46.250 --> 0:13:49.110 I do think I kind of lean a little bit 0:13:49.130 --> 0:13:52.150 towards towards Wolves division. I think there's probably a little 0:13:52.170 --> 0:13:54.109 bit because they're the one that has slipped most in 0:13:54.130 --> 0:13:57.200 some of the markets and some of the prediction markets 0:13:57.220 --> 0:14:01.000 are trading. Yes, 15 for that division. That to me 0:14:01.020 --> 0:14:02.560 kind of seems like probably if you're going to look 0:14:02.580 --> 0:14:05.380 from a futures perspective, one of the better ones that 0:14:05.420 --> 0:14:07.480 you can find just based off of the fact that 0:14:07.870 --> 0:14:09.870 there's kind of this idea of, oh, they're going to 0:14:09.890 --> 0:14:14.330 go to pieces without ant and one ant recovery is 0:14:14.370 --> 0:14:18.610 always pretty crazy. And then two, their team is still 0:14:18.630 --> 0:14:21.670 pretty good and they're very well coached. Like, yeah, they're 0:14:21.690 --> 0:14:25.050 plus 700 at DraftKings for the division. Like, they're longer 0:14:25.070 --> 0:14:27.450 than the Blazers. That might have to be a bet. 0:14:27.590 --> 0:14:31.200 Are you not worried at all about Ant's knee beyond 0:14:31.320 --> 0:14:33.340 the arthroscopic knee surgery recovery? 0:14:33.860 --> 0:14:37.020 Brian, this is the NBA in 2026. I'm worried about everything. 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:40.380 I have an idea for a future. 0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:43.100 Not to mention LaMelo Ball's injury history, which has not 0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:44.620 had an impact on this season yet. 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:45.440 What's that, Fiddle? 0:14:46.330 --> 0:14:48.250 So I think the best way to target this might 0:14:48.290 --> 0:14:51.910 be the NBA cup stuff because Chet's injuries the next 0:14:51.990 --> 0:14:54.270 two months. So what if we look NBA cup and 0:14:54.290 --> 0:14:57.570 they're in West group B with Minnesota, who's also down 0:14:57.710 --> 0:14:58.410 Anthony Edwards. 0:14:58.750 --> 0:14:58.910 Yep. 0:14:59.350 --> 0:15:01.810 And then they're also in there with Memphis. Who's been 0:15:02.220 --> 0:15:05.500 hot as hell and new Orleans who I've been watching 0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:09.120 some new Orleans recently. Cause Antonio Daniels on, on the 0:15:09.180 --> 0:15:11.200 call is my favorite league pass announcer by far. 0:15:11.220 --> 0:15:11.739 He's really good. 0:15:11.980 --> 0:15:12.300 He's on. 0:15:12.500 --> 0:15:14.620 I learned so much about basketball when I listened to him. 0:15:14.660 --> 0:15:17.180 So just like, Aside from all the betting stuff, if 0:15:17.540 --> 0:15:20.940 you ever watch League Pass, highly recommend a Pelicans broadcast. 0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:26.180 But going a step further, so I'd be looking Pelicans 0:15:26.230 --> 0:15:29.750 or Grizzlies. They play each other on Monday night, as 0:15:29.770 --> 0:15:32.550 probably most people are listening to this episode. So we've 0:15:32.670 --> 0:15:36.850 seen a little bit of money come in Pelicans. And 0:15:36.890 --> 0:15:40.050 so what I would recommend people do is check where 0:15:40.100 --> 0:15:43.580 that market is before the game starts. because I would 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:47.300 assume the results might impact that market a bit. But 0:15:47.340 --> 0:15:51.380 it's currently a 6.5 line now. And let's just assume 0:15:51.420 --> 0:15:54.090 it's like minus 110, because it's pretty much consensus both ways. 0:15:54.790 --> 0:15:58.450 If that closes 5.5 and there's some sharp action Pelicans, 0:15:58.910 --> 0:16:03.090 then Pelicans' West Group B winner, like plus 950, which 0:16:03.130 --> 0:16:06.580 is at DraftKings, starts to become very intriguing. If it 0:16:06.600 --> 0:16:09.840 ends up being bet out to Memphis minus 7.5 tomorrow, 0:16:09.880 --> 0:16:13.130 it's clearly people on Memphis for this specific matchup. then 0:16:13.200 --> 0:16:17.860 Memphis plus 450 or better in market also becomes intriguing. 0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:19.350 So I actually think the best way to target it, 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:21.480 because Ant's going to probably miss the next two months 0:16:21.540 --> 0:16:25.840 and so is Chet, is fading this West Group B 0:16:25.900 --> 0:16:27.020 and finding the long shot here. 0:16:27.720 --> 0:16:29.570 Yeah, I always have a hard time with the long 0:16:29.590 --> 0:16:31.610 shots because the Cup has kind of shown the opposite, right? 0:16:31.630 --> 0:16:34.950 Where the teams that go the distance are usually the favorites. 0:16:35.170 --> 0:16:39.110 Wolves got off to a 26-point differential advantage over Clippers 0:16:39.130 --> 0:16:41.610 in the first. That's the only Group B game that's 0:16:41.630 --> 0:16:44.780 been played. So they're already got a 26-point advantage here 0:16:44.820 --> 0:16:48.180 in point differential. I do agree that watching Pelicans, Grizzlies, 0:16:48.220 --> 0:16:49.880 and watching that score in particular is going to be, 0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:53.340 I think, maybe the one to watch the most. Although, again, 0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:55.100 we'll get back to them. Best bets. Now that I've 0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:58.040 kind of remembered this is cut play. Thunders plus 110 0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:01.590 to win that group. I see you shaking your head. 0:17:01.850 --> 0:17:04.160 There's not enough money for me to take the no 0:17:04.460 --> 0:17:08.909 out there. I wish we could fade this on the 0:17:09.030 --> 0:17:11.170 no side, but you really just have to pick another winner. 0:17:11.190 --> 0:17:11.929 All right. 0:17:14.040 --> 0:17:15.700 Let's do some best bets. Let's get to the best 0:17:15.740 --> 0:17:19.340 bets for your Monday slate. We'll talk about that. We 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:21.830 will break all this down. Let's go ahead and get started. 0:17:22.109 --> 0:17:24.689 As a reminder, we do three stars, two stars, one stars. 0:17:24.970 --> 0:17:27.390 Three stars are our best bets. Those have been really 0:17:27.430 --> 0:17:31.709 good for us this season. The actual numbers here on 0:17:31.890 --> 0:17:37.380 three stars is we are 15-8 by my count this 0:17:37.420 --> 0:17:39.500 season on three-star bets on buckets. We are off to 0:17:39.540 --> 0:17:44.109 a great start with three-star bets. Two stars, good bets. 0:17:44.390 --> 0:17:46.810 And then one stars are typically more of our leans. 0:17:47.830 --> 0:17:50.369 They are, you know, sometimes we have enough and we 0:17:50.410 --> 0:17:52.910 like them. We genuinely like them. All my one stars 0:17:52.950 --> 0:17:59.630 are plays. But a lot of us use leans, edges, sidles. 0:18:00.869 --> 0:18:04.320 This is Brian Fonseca coded because Brian's always too much 0:18:04.359 --> 0:18:06.899 of a pansy to come out firing with three solid bets. 0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:12.379 Why would I do that if like half of– 75% 0:18:12.380 --> 0:18:13.480 of shit isn't even up yet. 0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:16.160 It's true. You're, you're, you are just, and by the way, 0:18:16.520 --> 0:18:19.300 Brian is tied with Brandon Kravitz right now for best 0:18:19.340 --> 0:18:21.199 record on buckets to start the year. So I will 0:18:21.220 --> 0:18:21.459 give him. 0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:23.620 Now I'm going over three. 0:18:23.660 --> 0:18:23.900 Thanks. 0:18:24.380 --> 0:18:26.090 Yeah, no problem. I haven't got to jinx you. 0:18:26.510 --> 0:18:28.530 I think I'm like over six right now. So I'm due. 0:18:28.850 --> 0:18:31.610 You have one. You, you, you, you, you have one. 0:18:32.190 --> 0:18:34.630 You are, you are trying to catch up fiddle. Got 0:18:34.650 --> 0:18:36.290 CLV on most of them though. And you know, you 0:18:36.330 --> 0:18:38.830 know that that's, that's where your process is. That's where 0:18:38.850 --> 0:18:39.750 it matters. Yeah. 0:18:39.850 --> 0:18:42.720 Let's that's what they tell me. That's what I tell people. 0:18:43.740 --> 0:18:46.820 Let's start with Brian Pacecca. Let's start with your three-star 0:18:46.840 --> 0:18:47.540 better than I, Brian. 0:18:48.580 --> 0:18:53.180 The best rebounder on the Philadelphia 76ers right now, Vijay Edgecombe. 0:18:53.320 --> 0:18:53.920 I like it. 0:18:54.810 --> 0:18:58.170 I just, I don't, these numbers are too low for him. 0:18:58.190 --> 0:18:59.950 This is probably going to go to six and a half. 0:19:00.010 --> 0:19:04.449 These numbers are too low for him. Joel Embiid, we 0:19:04.510 --> 0:19:09.830 expect to see him next game. But even so, Vijay 0:19:09.869 --> 0:19:12.090 Edgecombe is one of the leading rebounders. 0:19:11.570 --> 0:19:12.070 On this team. 0:19:12.130 --> 0:19:14.910 I don't know if people know that because Philly doesn't 0:19:14.950 --> 0:19:17.050 have a lot of guys who. 0:19:16.890 --> 0:19:18.210