1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 2: Expert and Uncertainty and the Distinctions to risk is Jeff 7 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 2: for you. We're thrilled that he could join us this morning. 8 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:38,479 Speaker 2: Of course, with being white wealth, he is senior. He 9 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 2: A strategists. Jeff, how do you define how do you 10 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 2: identify the uncertainty right now? 11 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 3: Well, it depends on which asset class you are asking about, right. 12 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:52,559 Speaker 3: So if I look at foreign exchange options, for example, yes, 13 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 3: I'm uncertainty in the front end judging by implied volatility, 14 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 3: but going further down the curve doesn't look like it right, say, 15 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 3: a lot of frontend on certainty. But the market seems 16 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 3: to think that stuff will sort itself out. 17 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 4: I'm not so sure about that, so. 18 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 5: Jeffery, I mean, you know, we've been talking about the 19 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:10,840 Speaker 5: strength of the US exceptionalism over the last I don't 20 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 5: know a year two years here, and that's been reflected 21 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 5: in a strong dollar. What's the word order look like 22 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 5: right now, and you look at the currency markets, where 23 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 5: is the opportunity. 24 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 3: Well, the biggest repricing certainly has been in the Euro 25 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:27,400 Speaker 3: and I would add, you know some other low yielding 26 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:30,919 Speaker 3: European exporter currencies, you know, like the Swedish krona, check runa, 27 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 3: you know, Swiss Frankliner for example, Denmark, even they're going 28 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 3: to benefit from any restructuring in the Eurozone and a 29 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 3: big fiscal push. So that's where the opportunities is. And 30 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 3: because the dollar has enjoyed such a large rate differential 31 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 3: over these currencies, people are happy to sit on long 32 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 3: US dollars and sit on the carry trade. But now 33 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 3: with that easying being priced back in, clients are not 34 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 3: so sure. So these carry trades, these hedges, they are 35 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 3: being unwound. So as much as I'd like to call 36 00:01:57,320 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 3: the top in the Euro right now, given it's gone 37 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 3: against my view looking at the size of those hedges, 38 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:02,919 Speaker 3: I'm still not so certain. 39 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 5: So in the Euro here, I mean again, several weeks 40 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:09,360 Speaker 5: ago we saw Germany make a really big, big pivot 41 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:13,080 Speaker 5: there and talk about investing in their infrastructure, investing in 42 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:17,919 Speaker 5: their military, suggesting a little bit of a well actually 43 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 5: a lot of a change in their bias. Is there 44 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 5: still upside to the euro? We were trying to get 45 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 5: the euro to parody for Tom Keane, but that's not happening. 46 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 3: So, you know, I would that was my target for 47 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:31,080 Speaker 3: last year and early this year, and given what the 48 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 3: ECB has said as well about inflation, probably not like 49 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:34,920 Speaker 3: Peter falling back to target. 50 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 4: And then the future that is going to be. 51 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 3: A difficult I still think we end the below where 52 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 3: we are right now close to one o five rather 53 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 3: than one point fifteen or so. The proof will be 54 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 3: in the delivery and this is going to take a 55 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,679 Speaker 3: long long time, but the outlook is positive, and I 56 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 3: would conceive that. 57 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 2: Jeffer you I'm hearing from a lot of other people 58 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 2: what I'm hearing from you. Somewhere over the horizon, there's 59 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 2: a bet that everything comes down, maybe we normalize and 60 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 2: get back to you know, stock market gets a bit 61 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 2: out and everything's fine as well. My problem is I'm 62 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 2: reading the globe and mail up in Toronto or lamand 63 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 2: in Paris, and I see massive tear of tension. How 64 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 2: do you fold the politics and the Trump politics into 65 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 2: your finance analysis. 66 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 4: So going back to an earlier point. 67 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:26,640 Speaker 3: Yes, it stabilizes, but it won't stabilize at the level 68 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 3: that we were at. Right, So euro dollar trend stabilization 69 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:33,640 Speaker 3: and neutral rates, it's not going to be back at parity. 70 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 3: It's not going to be based on growth differentials that 71 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 3: we thought with the case in the past Chinese equity 72 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 3: markets people rendered uninvestable back in the day, not so 73 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 3: much in the future. So Canada, what's going to be 74 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 3: the nature of the economy. So yes, we will stabilize, 75 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 3: but at a different level, subject to other changes that 76 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 3: are taking place right. 77 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 2: Now, quantify our parity and euro is stabilization. I don't 78 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 2: want to pin you down here, it's unfair, but are 79 00:03:57,520 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 2: we doing is the new parody at one of five 80 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 2: or a one to ten. 81 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:05,839 Speaker 3: So we look at exchange rate in real terms, right, 82 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 3: so you look at growth differentials and you look at 83 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 3: inflation differentials. It will be higher compared to where we 84 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 3: were because if this works in Europe, and that is 85 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 3: a big if, then trend growth will be higher. Why 86 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:20,280 Speaker 3: because productivity will be higher. The competitivist that Dragi court 87 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 3: wal last year, that letter cored for last year, that 88 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 3: may actually deliver demographics will be harder. But if productivity 89 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 3: is higher, then trend growth will be higher and that 90 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:30,799 Speaker 3: means a higher real Europe. 91 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 2: Or should we get you a few in trouble with 92 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 2: compliance to this? Yeah, let's let's do it. Jeff you 93 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 2: this is way off the remit, but you're so good 94 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,839 Speaker 2: at this. We're going to ask. Mario Draghi of Italy 95 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 2: was a techno crat is Mark Kearney of Ottawa and techno. 96 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 3: Cred So that would be the market characterization. But let's 97 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 3: see what else he can do. You can be a 98 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 3: technocrat and also a political leader who says these two 99 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 3: are exclusive. And Mario Draghi was a political leader as well, 100 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:05,160 Speaker 3: so he led Italy for those two years. But of 101 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 3: course under a technocratic mandate. So let's wait for the 102 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 3: elections to see what the manifesto from the Liberal Party 103 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 3: will be. What kind of a mandate he will run under, 104 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 3: I assume be quite different compared to what Mario Dragi 105 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 3: run under. But ultimately can he deliver for the Canadian economy? 106 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 3: Can can he the German terms restructure the Canadian economy 107 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 3: so that it is less perhaps dependent on two way 108 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 3: trade south of the border. 109 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 4: That will be the challenge for. 110 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,640 Speaker 5: Him, Jeffrey, just in a world of that we're all 111 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 5: experiencing here over the last couple of months and over 112 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 5: the last several weeks in particular, in your world, when 113 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 5: you talk to your clients, what are they Are they 114 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 5: looking for safety? Are they looking for just opportunities? What 115 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:47,040 Speaker 5: are they doing here in this world where nobody seems 116 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:48,719 Speaker 5: to know what's going to happen in the next minute, 117 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 5: the next hour. 118 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 3: So again those two are not mutually exclusive, right, So 119 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 3: some safety names potentially are the opportunities as well. So certainly, 120 00:05:57,760 --> 00:05:59,080 Speaker 3: and we all know, and it's showing up in our 121 00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 3: flow data. There has been a wide gap in US 122 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 3: equity holdings versus the rest of the world. So we 123 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:07,600 Speaker 3: anticipated that to converge, you know, maybe not so speedily 124 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:09,799 Speaker 3: over the last few weeks or so, but that is happening. 125 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:12,279 Speaker 3: So there's a lot of cash on the sidelines right now. 126 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 3: Where will that go? Do I put it in Asia 127 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:16,479 Speaker 3: with a China theme, the AI theme, or do I 128 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 3: go in the europe reinvestment theme. But China is openly 129 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:21,600 Speaker 3: saying there is an inflation issue, a demand issue, So 130 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 3: you've got to pick your sectors very very carefully. So 131 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:26,919 Speaker 3: the opportunity and safety, I would add in places where 132 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 3: it's basically high earnings or high earnings growth potentially and 133 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 3: also less exposure to what's going on right now, and 134 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:36,279 Speaker 3: also based on domestic public investment, the sodal sectors I 135 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 3: want to be in. 136 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 2: We start strong today on Bloomberg Surveillance. We do it 137 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 2: with Jeffrey you of B and y Well. Thrilled that 138 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 2: he could be with us. We welcome all of you 139 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 2: on your commute across nation, across Canada. Good morning on 140 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 2: Apple car Play. Andreid'o on YouTube, Paan, I am absolutely 141 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:57,839 Speaker 2: humbled by the growth out and Bloomberg Podcasts. Subscribe to 142 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcasts, and you know, we were just absolutely thrilled 143 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:07,280 Speaker 2: by it. And in particular good Morning, I just featured, 144 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 2: I just featured Mumbai, he did, and the build out 145 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 2: here Ray YouTube. I have an advisor on this, you 146 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 2: do you know they said, they said, Tim, you're such 147 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 2: a fossil, you got to have an advisor. So I 148 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 2: have a Ray YouTube, and Ray YouTube says India is happening. 149 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 2: So good morning and good evening, I should say, in India, 150 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:30,239 Speaker 2: Jeffy you with us with B and y Well Jeff, 151 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 2: I look at China in the sort of to me, 152 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 2: if I was speaking with President Trump and his fierce advisors, 153 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 2: I would say, expect the unexpected. And if we export 154 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 2: Chinese deflation or massive significant disinflation, are we under gaming 155 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 2: where inflation is going to be in two, three, four years. 156 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 3: So that's where the Chinese growth strategy up ahead is 157 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 3: going to be really interesting. I would say, firstly, we're 158 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 3: going to be seeing of China exporting disinflation right because 159 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 3: inflation is expected to pick up. But secondly, this fiscal push, 160 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 3: the deficit at four percent, where is it going to 161 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 3: be concentrated. In the past, it's oh, it's infrastructure and 162 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 3: real estate. It's going to help commodoties. That's not going 163 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:18,240 Speaker 3: to be the case this time around. Let's help the household, 164 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 3: the consumer. If the household consuit of household consumption picks up, 165 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 3: then the again consumer staples or even the consumer discretionary. Know, 166 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 3: those are the areas where we can see reflation as well. 167 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 3: This was expected in twenty twenty three, twenty four when 168 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 3: China reopened, didn't really happen, But now better late than 169 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 3: never could that happen. So I would say less deflation 170 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 3: for sure, but can it be inflationary? Can it drive 171 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:43,720 Speaker 3: earnings upside in global consumer discretionary exposed to China. That 172 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 3: is going to be the big challenge, Jeffrey. 173 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 5: I mean, you know, I look at Ali Baba as 174 00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 5: my personal proxy for investor appetite for China. 175 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 2: It might be, it might be exactly. 176 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 5: I kind of feel like when Ali Barber, however, Ali 177 00:08:57,440 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 5: Bobin trades, that's kind of a good proxy for how 178 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 5: the world's viewing investment opportunities in China. 179 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 4: It's up sixty. 180 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 5: Percent this year. What's changed in China if anything, to 181 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:11,600 Speaker 5: bring it back to the forefront for maybe investors see 182 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 5: as an option here. 183 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 3: Right, So growth, we go back to the growth element, 184 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 3: and for companies what matters, right margin? Can there be 185 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 3: margin expansion? So can AI deliver the productivity growth and 186 00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:27,200 Speaker 3: the compessimist gains, They will really boost earnings via margin expansion, 187 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 3: and I think that's what's being priced near right now. 188 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 3: So but I have to pivot back to the household. Ultimately, 189 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,200 Speaker 3: the final demand has to come from the household, you know, 190 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:38,320 Speaker 3: maybe directly from the government, but otherwise. But given these 191 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 3: Chinese and consumers communication services companies, they really are in 192 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:46,320 Speaker 3: every aspect of household consumption. So that's where we hope 193 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:48,840 Speaker 3: the growth can be. Can it translate in high earnings 194 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 3: and employment? I think that's what the government is hoping for. 195 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 3: It's early days after the NPC. So far there's money 196 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 3: on the table, and I would stress participation from international 197 00:09:57,640 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 3: investors is very very light right now. We've seeing that 198 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 3: in our data, we're seeing it in official data as well, 199 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,319 Speaker 3: so there is an opportunity there in terms of allocations. 200 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:06,679 Speaker 3: If you believe in the story. 201 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 2: Jeff, you when you were at LC, there was a 202 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:13,120 Speaker 2: basic statement on Germany is some form of you know, 203 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 2: to be brought about it a non American experiment. All 204 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 2: of a sudden, it sounds like they're goosenomenal GDP. Do 205 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 2: you actually believe Germany politically, and here's the keyword, folks, 206 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:33,439 Speaker 2: culturally is ready for a more Anglo American economy. 207 00:10:32,720 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 3: Right, I think it is. Let's just say what prompted 208 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 3: this cultural change? Was it something out of their own 209 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 3: volition or something from outside? I think that is a 210 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 3: political debate perhaps worth having. But then again, looking at 211 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 3: Europe in general, if it often does respond better to 212 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:52,200 Speaker 3: external challenges, and I think we are seeing that play 213 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 3: out this time around as well. 214 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 4: So yes, there is a change. 215 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 3: There is a change at least in the political culture, 216 00:10:57,360 --> 00:10:59,200 Speaker 3: in the dynamic, and we're seeing that with Metz. 217 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 2: One final question, what are you hearing from B and 218 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:03,559 Speaker 2: Y clients? 219 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 3: So b Andy clients are again looking for opportunity, safe 220 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:12,839 Speaker 3: opportunities as stated earlier, so they are looking at their 221 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 3: overall exposures. I wouldn't say there's too much conviction in 222 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 3: one direction, you know all the other and we're seeing 223 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 3: that in our underlying flows right now. But to start 224 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 3: off with, certainly we are seeing some dollar positions, some 225 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:25,600 Speaker 3: dollar longs and being taken off, or they're reducing their 226 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 3: hedges on overseas assets. Is the next step mass rotation 227 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 3: out of the US into other markets. 228 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 4: We're not seeing that yet. Home buyers are strong. 229 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,839 Speaker 3: Take Europe for example, it's being driven by European investors, 230 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:39,680 Speaker 3: not global investors. Will that change? I think that's the 231 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 3: ass allocation story for the year. 232 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 2: Jeffer, you with B and why Paul, that's what we 233 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 2: call a seven am. 234 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 5: Call exactly on the street and offices in London there 235 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 5: that is a five minute walk from Bloomberg. I think 236 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 5: next time, Jeffrey can walk over to the Bloomberg What 237 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:55,719 Speaker 5: do you think, I think the studio and doing that. 238 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 5: It's right around the corner. 239 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 2: Jeff thank you so much getting us started here. 240 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:04,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 241 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 242 00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:11,440 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Atto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 243 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 244 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 2: It's a perfect time that if you're out of a job, 245 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 2: where do you go? And you go to Zip Recruiter. 246 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 2: They're chief economist, one of our favorites. Julia Pollock joins 247 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 2: us right now. Julia, Zip Recruiter, have you seen a change? 248 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 2: Can you give us wisdom or perspective on this new 249 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 2: job market? With so many people so quickly out of work, it. 250 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 6: Is a slow job market. That is what I'll say 251 00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 6: about that. The well, there was a big poppet optimism 252 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 6: in the fourth quarter. Our first quarter surveys of twenty 253 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 6: eighty five are now wrapping up, and what we're finding 254 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 6: is that that bump has disappeared. Job Seekers are saying 255 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:02,199 Speaker 6: that the largest numbers ever that their job search is 256 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 6: going poorly. We have the largest share of job seekers 257 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:11,080 Speaker 6: ever with zero offers, job seekers of lost confidence that 258 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:13,319 Speaker 6: there are plenty of jobs available. So we have the 259 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,720 Speaker 6: largest share of job seekers ever, over forty percent saying 260 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 6: that they have they're not confident at all that they 261 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 6: are jobs available. So our first quarter survey is a 262 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:23,600 Speaker 6: somewhat gloomy one. 263 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 5: I'd have to say, and Julia, what do you think 264 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 5: has changed here? Is it just some of the uncertainty 265 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 5: that a lot of folks in the economy are feeling today, 266 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 5: is we try to figure out how these TIFFs and 267 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:40,800 Speaker 5: immigration changes may impact kind of the environment. 268 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 6: So I see a continuation of what was happening before. Right, 269 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 6: We've had a two year slow down and hiring okay, 270 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:54,160 Speaker 6: And I think that excessive spending, high inflation, high interest rates, 271 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 6: they have a very long hangover. And many companies were saying, 272 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 6: let's survived till twenty five, and they were hoping that 273 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 6: inflation would be conquered and that interest rates would come 274 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 6: back down to the normal by twenty twenty five. That 275 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:10,719 Speaker 6: has not happened, so we still have inflation on so 276 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 6: we still have interest rate uncertainty, and now an additional 277 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 6: we also have policy certy. So that is the picture 278 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 6: Bloomberg surveillance. 279 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 2: Folks, so commute across the nation from Julia Pollock's left 280 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 2: coast over here to ninety nine and one FM in Washington, 281 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 2: ninety two to nine FM up in Boston. Good Morning, 282 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 2: Bloomberg eleven three to zero and a cold spring morning 283 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 2: here in New York. On YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. 284 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 2: It's a new way to discover us. Find that again 285 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:44,520 Speaker 2: at YouTube. Thank you for googling YouTube for their support, Julia. 286 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 2: When you just give me the litany of how difficult 287 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 2: it is to get a job. Your job at ZIP 288 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 2: recruiter is to pull that over to the unemployment rate. 289 00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:59,680 Speaker 2: We're having a raging debate. When is the when of 290 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 2: say four point eight percent unemployment? Is the when of 291 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 2: that this year? Or do you go out further into 292 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 2: next year? 293 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 6: It possibly won't get there. And that's because we are 294 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 6: in the middle of peak sixty five, with the with 295 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 6: the largest numbers of Americans turning sixty five every year, 296 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 6: five years of ay boomers aging out like this and 297 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:29,320 Speaker 6: becoming eligible for Medicare and for retirement, and then we 298 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 6: also have immigration falling steeply. It's one of the first 299 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,120 Speaker 6: things the President did was sign an executive order ending 300 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 6: as Island programs for workers from Afghanistan Nico Lagua Hate. 301 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 6: So those programs together accounted for about five hundred thousand 302 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 6: immigrant inflows a year, and many of those workers got 303 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 6: employment pieces right away. That stopped right away. Other kinds 304 00:15:54,520 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 6: of border crossings have stopped, and so the number of 305 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:01,680 Speaker 6: people you need to be absorbed by the slave market 306 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 6: keeps falling, and so perhaps even with slow hiring, we 307 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 6: won't see an object in unemployment. 308 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 2: Julia, Thank you so much, Julia Pollack. That was riveting folks. 309 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:13,840 Speaker 2: The beginning of that conversation with actually what they're seeing 310 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 2: it ZIP recruiter was extraordinary. About a Tona's change, I'm 311 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:20,960 Speaker 2: going to rephrase the tone has changed. And what I 312 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 2: saw there, Paul was if you're out looking for a job, 313 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 2: the percentage of people with zero offers. 314 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 4: Ye. 315 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 2: I think you know she's going, you know, Julia Pollock fast, 316 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:35,320 Speaker 2: but I think that's what I got out of it. 317 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:36,080 Speaker 2: Is well. 318 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,920 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 319 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:49,000 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and Android 320 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 321 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 322 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:58,600 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 323 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 2: We went out on this morning of wine and cheese 324 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 2: fromage in Champagne tariffs, and we tried to find someone 325 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 2: who's tried every liqueur that mister Arnaud has at LVMH 326 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 2: joining us now Robert Harmatz's public service to the nation, 327 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:21,919 Speaker 2: just back from Paris, and of course with all of 328 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 2: this history, getting us at least halfway back to McKinley. 329 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 2: Ambassador Armitz, thank you for joining us this morning. You 330 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:32,439 Speaker 2: got a piece of chalk in your hand. You're up 331 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 2: at Toughs. What do you say into the diplomacy students 332 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 2: at Toughs University this morning? 333 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 7: Well, I'm saying basically that the process of reaching some 334 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 7: sort of compromise moved a little bit ahead in the 335 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:53,520 Speaker 7: last few days in the discussions between the US and 336 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 7: Green But the critical part is that Putin started this war, 337 00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:04,959 Speaker 7: and Putin is a critical element in reaching a truce 338 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 7: and reaching a conclusion of full peace. And it appears 339 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 7: to me that what he is showing us by wearying 340 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:18,480 Speaker 7: his military fatigues and his rhetory is that he does 341 00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:21,919 Speaker 7: not seem to be willing to do any of the 342 00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:27,000 Speaker 7: things needed to reach a compromise on the truth or 343 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 7: on a piece. And the question is what is the 344 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 7: United States going to do visa e Putin? We've said 345 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 7: we President said he trusted him. He is now demonstrated 346 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:39,719 Speaker 7: he is going to do his own thing. He's going 347 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 7: to be after In the Great and Peter the Great, 348 00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 7: and a compromise with the United States or Ukraine does 349 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 7: not seem to be in his cards, which means there's 350 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 7: a major diplomatic problem with him, and we're going to 351 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:52,679 Speaker 7: have to address that. 352 00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:55,199 Speaker 2: There's no way around the distinction here, Paul. For me, 353 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 2: is a diplomacy of Hormance or Kissinger or others. There's 354 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:02,920 Speaker 2: a lot of silence. There's a lot of quiet, and 355 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:07,240 Speaker 2: is Robert Hormett states there were in a very verbal diplomacy. 356 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:09,159 Speaker 5: Right now, it seems like a bob So how do 357 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 5: you think this is going to play out over the 358 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:14,959 Speaker 5: next several weeks and months as it relates to Ukraine, 359 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 5: Russia and US, and I guess not the Europeans. 360 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:20,920 Speaker 7: Well, I had a long talk with the Europeans. That's 361 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:24,199 Speaker 7: another diplomatic issue that has to be confronted. The Europeans 362 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 7: feel that they have been pushed aside, that they've not 363 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:33,159 Speaker 7: been included in the conversations. And the whole history of 364 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:37,760 Speaker 7: the United States strategically after World War Two has been 365 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:40,600 Speaker 7: to work with our allies. The one thing we have 366 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:45,040 Speaker 7: that China and Russia both do not have our strong allies, 367 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 7: and we're alienating them, and we're putting them, sidelining them. 368 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,879 Speaker 7: And I think this is going to weaken us in 369 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 7: the long run. Viz A VI, Putin and visa VI 370 00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:01,199 Speaker 7: the rest of the world, and very important, the confidence 371 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:06,919 Speaker 7: and our reliability to support our allies is diminished quite dramatically. 372 00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 7: All the Europeans I talked to said, and we have 373 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,879 Speaker 7: confidence in you, And I said, well, we have a 374 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 7: history of being with you. And they say, if you're 375 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:21,040 Speaker 7: having a fight with your best friend and neighbor, Canada, 376 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:24,160 Speaker 7: how can we rely on you to support us, particularly 377 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:29,240 Speaker 7: the smaller Estonia Latvia Lithuania. Are you just gonna toss 378 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:32,720 Speaker 7: them to the side. So credibility is on the line here. 379 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 2: Howard Latnik with us earlier the Secretary of Commerce and 380 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 2: now Ambassador Hormance with this of course always affiliated with 381 00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 2: the Kissinger associates will speak with the ambassador. Jess Metton 382 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:45,919 Speaker 2: will get us to the nine o'clock hour here on 383 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:47,399 Speaker 2: exequity markets. 384 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 5: Paul so Bob, how should we think about mister Putin? 385 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:52,200 Speaker 8: Here? 386 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:55,640 Speaker 5: One could argue he could come out of this stronger 387 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:59,119 Speaker 5: than ever. And is that something that the Europeans that 388 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,040 Speaker 5: you spoke with their con Yes. 389 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:07,120 Speaker 7: I think that we underestimate how bad his economy is 390 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:11,679 Speaker 7: at this point and how many people he's lost. The 391 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 7: only trouble is he lives in an information bubble. In 392 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 7: authoritarian government's information rarely moves up, particularly bad information, so 393 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 7: he may not have a very good idea of actually 394 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:25,879 Speaker 7: what's going on in the battlefield. And a lot of 395 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:29,880 Speaker 7: Russians only get information from state sources, so they may 396 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:33,000 Speaker 7: not know. But the economy is in terrible shape, a 397 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 7: lot of jobs have been lost, a lot of very 398 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 7: good people have left. On the other hand, he does 399 00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:42,040 Speaker 7: have nuclear weapons, and if we give him a truce, 400 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:48,360 Speaker 7: he's using this truth to further extend his power and 401 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 7: his devastation in Ukraine, so that the Ukrainians are losing 402 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 7: by the truth, even though we've pushed them into it, 403 00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 7: and we haven't pushed Putin to a very great degree 404 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,080 Speaker 7: at all little more sanctions. But he's going to be 405 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 7: the one who's going to have to do this, and 406 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,639 Speaker 7: we're going to have to come up with a strategy 407 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:08,960 Speaker 7: to get him to do it. If he doesn't, then 408 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 7: Europe feels even more and more vulnerable. 409 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 2: Your expertise in your wonderful book from over a decade 410 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:18,159 Speaker 2: ago is a basic linkagure of our domestic economy and 411 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 2: our strength as America with our the way we project 412 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 2: on a foreign basis. And I don't want to go 413 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,439 Speaker 2: in do we get Erring Tedesky coming up in the 414 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:28,879 Speaker 2: next hour from the Yale Budget Lab. I don't want 415 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 2: to go into fiscal policy. But this is the arch question. 416 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,159 Speaker 2: I think all of our listeners and viewers want to know. 417 00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:40,040 Speaker 2: Robert Hormats on your study of populism. So there was 418 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 2: William Jennings, Bryan, there was Huey Long in the nineteen thirties, 419 00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:49,120 Speaker 2: maybe other populous along the way. Do you look at 420 00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:56,320 Speaker 2: Trump policy, the Trump phenomenon, the Trump foreign policy, tariffs 421 00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,719 Speaker 2: and what we're talking about here is a one off 422 00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:05,199 Speaker 2: that the nation moves beyond after his public service, or 423 00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:09,119 Speaker 2: is there a new permanence here to the populism of 424 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:10,199 Speaker 2: the Grand Old Party. 425 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:12,760 Speaker 7: Well, I think the populism is going to be with 426 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 7: us for a period of time because there is income 427 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 7: inequity in this country. A lot of people feel left 428 00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:22,680 Speaker 7: behind by globalization and by technology. And I think you're 429 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 7: seeing this in other parts of the world as well, 430 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:30,119 Speaker 7: that there is to This is not a one shot phenomenon. 431 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,439 Speaker 7: I think this kind of populism is going to be 432 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:35,160 Speaker 7: with us, and you're seeing it in Germany with the 433 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:39,200 Speaker 7: Alliance for Deutschland that did very well, sort of very 434 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 7: ultra conservative populism is. 435 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 2: The Washington consensus, Let's be honest. I think I'm part 436 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,120 Speaker 2: of it. I'm certain Robert Hormance is part of it. 437 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,720 Speaker 2: Did we blow it because we did not set up 438 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 2: a structured labor project like Germany did to protect labor 439 00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:03,000 Speaker 2: rudfully did in two thousand and eight in America with 440 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 2: a lockeyan individualism said to hell with you down at 441 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:10,600 Speaker 2: textile jobs in North Carolina. Did we blow it twenty 442 00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:11,120 Speaker 2: years ago? 443 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,200 Speaker 7: Yes, I think we had. We're under the illusion that 444 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:19,239 Speaker 7: there was a Washington consensus in the country when we 445 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,200 Speaker 7: had the financial crisis, and then when we had COVID, 446 00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 7: where a lot of people didn't get proper treatment because 447 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:29,720 Speaker 7: they were in poorer areas. We underestimated the fact that 448 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:33,720 Speaker 7: there was not a good distribution in terms of the 449 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 7: benefits of globalization. Many people felt it was disruptive that 450 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,919 Speaker 7: technology benefited a lot of people, but a lot of 451 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 7: people were not included in this. And when it came 452 00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:49,919 Speaker 7: to the financial crisis, the bailout was mostly for the 453 00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:51,880 Speaker 7: banks and a lot of small stores. 454 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 2: Was the stimulus of the pandemic mostly for the banks? 455 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:56,919 Speaker 2: As you say it in a broad sense, was it 456 00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:57,600 Speaker 2: for the elite? 457 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 7: I think the pandemic actually a lot of the stimuls 458 00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:05,720 Speaker 7: went to other people. I think there was distribution. I 459 00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:07,679 Speaker 7: think it was relatively fair. There was a lot, and 460 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:11,120 Speaker 7: it was not as wells monitors it should have been. 461 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:15,399 Speaker 7: But after the financial crisis, the financial institutions were the 462 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:19,200 Speaker 7: big beneficiaries. The little guy in Kansas City or in 463 00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:22,359 Speaker 7: Des Moines didn't feel he was getting his fair shape. 464 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 2: We'll get one more in here, because they got one 465 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:25,879 Speaker 2: more before Horbet storms. 466 00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:29,000 Speaker 5: Out of exactly exactly, so, Bob, this is a president, 467 00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:34,439 Speaker 5: this administration that puts America first in seemingly all issues. 468 00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 5: And maybe and a lot of folks support that. Is 469 00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,800 Speaker 5: that how Europeans view it. Do they feel like they 470 00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 5: are really on their own at this point? 471 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:43,200 Speaker 2: Yes, yep. 472 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 7: I think they feel in part because they themselves became 473 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:53,359 Speaker 7: to self confidence. Complacency is I think a major problem 474 00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,600 Speaker 7: we've had over the last twenty or so years. And 475 00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,359 Speaker 7: the Europeans felt they could get their energy cheap energy 476 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,639 Speaker 7: from Russia, the US would protect them from a security 477 00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:08,880 Speaker 7: point of view. They were in effect not really playing 478 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,520 Speaker 7: the role that they wanted to play in the global 479 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:16,920 Speaker 7: in the global system. There's some very talented people there, mccrawan. 480 00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:18,960 Speaker 7: I saw a lot of these people when I was 481 00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:21,760 Speaker 7: over there. But I think the Europeans came to aly 482 00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 7: too much on the US for their security and didn't 483 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 7: do enough, too much on others for energy and didn't 484 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:31,080 Speaker 7: do enough and on technology. They're simply not keeping up 485 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:33,359 Speaker 7: with what's going on in the US. So they need 486 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,239 Speaker 7: to They want to pull themselves together. They know if 487 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:38,199 Speaker 7: they want to have a global voice, they have to. 488 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,399 Speaker 7: And I think now if there's one thing that's happened 489 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,160 Speaker 7: is that they want to do this, but they want 490 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,439 Speaker 7: to do it with the backing and the support of 491 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:47,399 Speaker 7: the United States. They wanted to be allies in the 492 00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:49,359 Speaker 7: United States. They don't want to try to do it 493 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,159 Speaker 7: alone because they don't think that's good for them or 494 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 7: for the global free world. 495 00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:57,720 Speaker 2: I'm upset. I think there's been a horrific job by 496 00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:01,639 Speaker 2: the media of describing a path that the Rubio family 497 00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:05,399 Speaker 2: of Miami took to get to this country two years 498 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:09,879 Speaker 2: before Fidel Castro, his mother going back and forth to Cuba, 499 00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:12,960 Speaker 2: you know, just trying to get the family out of Cuba, 500 00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:17,280 Speaker 2: and he growing up with non citizen parents, I believe, 501 00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:21,680 Speaker 2: and really being Rubio is the immigrant. What is your 502 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:26,840 Speaker 2: counsel to Rubio as Secretary of State given this, Maelstrom. 503 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:30,360 Speaker 7: I think my counsel would be that his family, and 504 00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:34,040 Speaker 7: my family, and many families of people we all know 505 00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:39,400 Speaker 7: came over as immigrants and helped to build this country. 506 00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,320 Speaker 7: And I think that we need to have a fair 507 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,680 Speaker 7: immigration policy. It can't be held or a skelter as 508 00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,800 Speaker 7: it has been, but there needs to be a recognition 509 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:53,040 Speaker 7: that immigrants have been critical, right and remain critical to 510 00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:57,240 Speaker 7: this country at all levels, starting companies and doing a 511 00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:01,080 Speaker 7: regular day work that is critical to our growth. 512 00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 2: How do you respond to the comments Secretary Rubio should resign. 513 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:10,480 Speaker 7: Oh, I think that's not an answer to anything. I 514 00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:14,199 Speaker 7: think Rubio is a guy who has been involved on 515 00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:20,600 Speaker 7: global strategic and foreign policy issues and is a very 516 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:24,600 Speaker 7: reasonable choice for that for that job. I do think though, 517 00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:30,040 Speaker 7: that it's important that he have a strong voice, because 518 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,560 Speaker 7: I think he does, from his time on the Hill 519 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,359 Speaker 7: and his background, have an understanding of the global system 520 00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:39,040 Speaker 7: and and and I think that's that's fine. I mean 521 00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:42,040 Speaker 7: Trump should have a choice, and Rubio is a very 522 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 7: reasonable choice for that. 523 00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:47,440 Speaker 2: This has been hugely beneficial. Ambassador Horr Mattz, thank you 524 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:50,600 Speaker 2: so much. Robert Hormantz, of course with Golden Sex International 525 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 2: for years of service under Secretary Clinton to the nation. 526 00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 527 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:03,720 Speaker 1: afternoons from seven to ten AM's durn Listen on Applecarplay 528 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:07,040 Speaker 1: and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch 529 00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:08,280 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 530 00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:12,360 Speaker 2: Constance Hunter is so good at economist intelligence tune at 531 00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,280 Speaker 2: the EIU that we're really going to take a fiscal 532 00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,920 Speaker 2: tack here concepts the fear that all Americans have, Like 533 00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:21,360 Speaker 2: am I going to get a Social Security check? 534 00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:25,160 Speaker 8: In twelve years or or as Kyle Bronner would have 535 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 8: said years ago, the debt and the deficit are these 536 00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:32,960 Speaker 8: legitimate fears that we have about America's fiscal structure. 537 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:36,400 Speaker 9: So this is a really great question about fiscal space 538 00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,440 Speaker 9: and what allows countries to have some countries to have 539 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 9: lots of fiscal space, like Japan, and what allows other 540 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:46,160 Speaker 9: countries to have very little fiscal space like Argentina. Right, So, 541 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:49,760 Speaker 9: theoretically the United States should have quite a bit of 542 00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:53,600 Speaker 9: fiscal space because we're the reserve currency, because we have 543 00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:56,719 Speaker 9: deep in liquid capital markets, because we're really willing to 544 00:29:57,080 --> 00:30:01,360 Speaker 9: run trade deficits, so we can run finance account surpluses. 545 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:05,000 Speaker 9: All that is being turned upside down right now, right, 546 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 9: And if I could just say, you know, I saw 547 00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,960 Speaker 9: Secretary of Lutnik on TV just a little bit before, 548 00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,400 Speaker 9: and he was talking about two trillion dollars of investment 549 00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,160 Speaker 9: coming in. Well, what that means is that we have 550 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,400 Speaker 9: to have a trade deficit. On the other side of that, 551 00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:23,240 Speaker 9: the financial account and the capital account need to balance. 552 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,680 Speaker 9: And what does this have to do with the budget deficit. Well, 553 00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 9: we can again, only run budget deficits if we're willing 554 00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:34,000 Speaker 9: to have a financial account surplus because we're going to 555 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,520 Speaker 9: need foreigners to invest in our currency, which is a 556 00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:39,800 Speaker 9: good thing because we're the reserve currency they want to 557 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:43,400 Speaker 9: hold dollars. But if we start to erode that in 558 00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 9: all sorts of ways, then our fiscal space shrinks. 559 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,920 Speaker 5: So what is this What is the risk to this economy? 560 00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:53,960 Speaker 5: Do you think with what we're seeing coming out of 561 00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:57,000 Speaker 5: Washington in terms of tariffs, in terms of maybe I 562 00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:01,160 Speaker 5: don't changes in immigration policy, is there a risk to 563 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:02,440 Speaker 5: this economy stalling? 564 00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:03,080 Speaker 2: Maybe? 565 00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:05,760 Speaker 9: I think there's a risk that we hit stall speed, 566 00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:08,719 Speaker 9: stall speed. Excuse me, And just to get back to 567 00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:10,760 Speaker 9: Tom's point, and when we do have the we do 568 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:14,800 Speaker 9: have the debt sealing coming up this Friday, we did 569 00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:19,200 Speaker 9: and so and so this perpetual situation where we're where 570 00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:20,880 Speaker 9: we're not in this are we or aren't we going 571 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:24,200 Speaker 9: to fund the government? Will Republicans and Democrats come together? 572 00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:27,880 Speaker 9: That all that at the margin hurts our fiscal space. 573 00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,560 Speaker 9: And then you add all this policy uncertainty. So when 574 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:34,960 Speaker 9: I look at policy uncertainty certainty indexes, we're at highs 575 00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,280 Speaker 9: we had. We're still below the highs of the pandemic, 576 00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:40,520 Speaker 9: but we're at highs. We haven't seen in other normal, 577 00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:42,000 Speaker 9: uncertain periods. 578 00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 2: You're too young to remember this, Paul's too young to 579 00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:47,400 Speaker 2: remember this. But I remember the magic of nineteen ninety two, 580 00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,680 Speaker 2: and it was unique, folks. There's lots of think tanks 581 00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:52,320 Speaker 2: in that, and somebody with a lot of money like 582 00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:57,520 Speaker 2: Pete Peterson writes a check the Conquered Coalition, Pete Peterson, 583 00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,920 Speaker 2: Warren Rudman, Paul sign. So we lost way, way too early, 584 00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:06,360 Speaker 2: and they invented our concern and they articulated at the 585 00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:11,080 Speaker 2: Conquered Coalition what our concern is over the deficit, And 586 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 2: what every listener's saying is, we've heard this like a 587 00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:18,040 Speaker 2: broken record since nineteen ninety two. What's different now about 588 00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,280 Speaker 2: a catalyst to actually fix this. 589 00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:23,600 Speaker 9: So, just as an aside, I worked on the Paul 590 00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:28,440 Speaker 9: Songa's presidential campaign because of that, because of his stance 591 00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:32,000 Speaker 9: on fiscal policy, and I would say that I am 592 00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,240 Speaker 9: definitely of the belief that you want to have you 593 00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,239 Speaker 9: want to be spending on the right things that are 594 00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:41,360 Speaker 9: going to yield growth in the future, and we shouldn't 595 00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:45,320 Speaker 9: be running six percent budget deficits this mansion. 596 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:48,040 Speaker 2: We're going to do this with Thirtie todays shy, the 597 00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:51,800 Speaker 2: variable budget is fourteen percent. I think Paul helped me 598 00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,520 Speaker 2: with a math here that means eighty six percent of 599 00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,920 Speaker 2: the budget is untouchable, Is that right, Constance Hunter? 600 00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,959 Speaker 9: Yes, but I'll tell you I think that there's ways 601 00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:06,400 Speaker 9: to think about cutting costs in healthcare, right, and I'm 602 00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:09,920 Speaker 9: talking using AI, using robotics. There was a great study 603 00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:13,120 Speaker 9: in Japan, which, as you know, has is the preview 604 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:15,880 Speaker 9: movie by the way, for everybody in terms of demographics, 605 00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:19,680 Speaker 9: fiscal space, everything, right. And so they have all these 606 00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:23,320 Speaker 9: elderly people in nursing homes. They don't have enough staff 607 00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,800 Speaker 9: to take care of them, and so they started using 608 00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,960 Speaker 9: a number of different types of robotics to help this staff, 609 00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,600 Speaker 9: and it reduced costs and improved outcomes. 610 00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:33,800 Speaker 7: Right. 611 00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:37,400 Speaker 9: Itved it reduced injury from the nursing staff that was 612 00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:40,320 Speaker 9: taking care of the patients. It made it reduced injuries 613 00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 9: to the patients. And we need to start thinking about 614 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:46,440 Speaker 9: how are we going to solve this. Right, if you 615 00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:49,760 Speaker 9: look forward, we need to increase home health aids by 616 00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:52,920 Speaker 9: twenty one percent over the next decade. Now, these people 617 00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,640 Speaker 9: make half the median wage. I don't see how we're 618 00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:59,480 Speaker 9: going to do that without increasing wages or using technology 619 00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:00,000 Speaker 9: to help. 620 00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:05,800 Speaker 5: Us, or maybe some immigration discussions there. I mean, yeah, but. 621 00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,160 Speaker 9: Even then, I mean these are not you know as 622 00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:12,000 Speaker 9: yes that that's possible, but this, this is there's always 623 00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:12,960 Speaker 9: been resistance to that. 624 00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:13,359 Speaker 4: Yep. 625 00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:18,799 Speaker 5: Absolutely inflation. How big of a risk is that for you? 626 00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,640 Speaker 5: For a I say, resurging inflation risk. 627 00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:25,000 Speaker 9: So we think that there obviously will be a step 628 00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:30,840 Speaker 9: level change up as a result of There will be 629 00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:33,279 Speaker 9: a step level change up as a result of tariffs 630 00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:38,200 Speaker 9: that will intersect with demand. Right, So if we have 631 00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,919 Speaker 9: the economy weakening because uncertainty is causing firms to hold 632 00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:44,799 Speaker 9: back on hiring, or it's causing consumers to hold back 633 00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:48,040 Speaker 9: on spending, or it's causing firms to hold back on investment, 634 00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:51,920 Speaker 9: right right, if those intersect, right, then those higher prices 635 00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:55,480 Speaker 9: are going to actually cause a bigger slowdown in demand 636 00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:57,160 Speaker 9: and prices a year forward. 637 00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:00,359 Speaker 2: Constants Hunter, thank you so much, particularly for brief us 638 00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:03,719 Speaker 2: out well. That's wonderful vignette there on Paul Sugas as well, 639 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,280 Speaker 2: Thank you much. With the EI at you this morning. 640 00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:16,320 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 641 00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,400 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corclay and Android 642 00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:22,399 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 643 00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:25,440 Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the 644 00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:26,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. 645 00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:28,880 Speaker 2: Right now on the newspapers, Lisa, what do you have? 646 00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,799 Speaker 10: Okay, we have a big milestone for an American rock band. 647 00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:37,719 Speaker 4: Listen up, chuck in the chips deep chuck you. 648 00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:42,720 Speaker 10: Yes, it is The Grateful Dead celebrating their sixtieth anniversary. 649 00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:45,120 Speaker 10: So in order to celebrate, they're coming out with a 650 00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:51,440 Speaker 10: sixty CD box set of live shows. It's offered May thirtieth. 651 00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:54,520 Speaker 10: Enjoying the Ride, that's what it's called. So word is 652 00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:56,080 Speaker 10: Matt Miller already for you or I. 653 00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:59,279 Speaker 5: Know, I know it's choppy, crazy fan, but. 654 00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:01,920 Speaker 10: It represents twenty show is from nineteen sixty nine to 655 00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:05,759 Speaker 10: nineteen ninety four, sixty hours of music, four hundred and 656 00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:09,319 Speaker 10: fifty tracks in all. It's about six hundred dollars. That's 657 00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,200 Speaker 10: the cost of it. If you have a CD player 658 00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:12,840 Speaker 10: and you want to do that, you can get the 659 00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:14,799 Speaker 10: downloads runs you a little bit cheaper. If you want 660 00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:16,800 Speaker 10: to go a little bit cheaper, there's a condensed version 661 00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,480 Speaker 10: on CD and vinle two. But it's the way for 662 00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,680 Speaker 10: them to celebrate sixty years. 663 00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:28,919 Speaker 2: I can't convey the bootlegism of nineteen seventy, nineteen seventy one. 664 00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:32,279 Speaker 2: You go in, you go to the sinker Toiloggis and 665 00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:34,080 Speaker 2: try to get through the day, and then you knew 666 00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:36,759 Speaker 2: you needed something to get back to the dorm. So 667 00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,440 Speaker 2: you go and everything was white. It was like cheap 668 00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:42,800 Speaker 2: white cardboard. And you go in and get bootleg stuff. 669 00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:44,759 Speaker 2: And the only one I know left who has a 670 00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:50,759 Speaker 2: complete nineteen seventy one bootleg catalog is Doug cast no 671 00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,799 Speaker 2: one else. My mother threw them out. You know that? 672 00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:55,600 Speaker 2: What do they smell like? Something? 673 00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:56,080 Speaker 4: What is that? 674 00:36:57,640 --> 00:36:59,640 Speaker 2: If we said good morning to Doug Cass who has 675 00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:03,799 Speaker 2: all his original bootlegs. Yeah, I love it. I love it. 676 00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:05,840 Speaker 10: But yes, Matt Miller was very excited about it. It 677 00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:07,200 Speaker 10: came to me this morning, Yes he did. 678 00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:07,680 Speaker 8: So. 679 00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:11,160 Speaker 10: This next one, so this is from the Wall Street Journal. 680 00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:15,440 Speaker 10: LVMH is named Bernardo O's son to lead Italian fashion 681 00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:18,920 Speaker 10: house Laura Piano. So this is an interesting setup because 682 00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:21,719 Speaker 10: he's thirty years old. We're talking about Frederick Arno. He's 683 00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:24,880 Speaker 10: worked in LVMH's watch division since twenty seventeen. He was 684 00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:28,840 Speaker 10: a CEO three years later at twenty five. So a 685 00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:31,279 Speaker 10: Laura Piano. It sells about, you know, two thousand dollars 686 00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:33,880 Speaker 10: sweaters and coats, but it's part of that fashion and 687 00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:36,680 Speaker 10: leather goods section, which is huge for the company. So 688 00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:38,480 Speaker 10: a lot of people are saying it's kind of setting 689 00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:40,960 Speaker 10: him up to be the next in line. I mean, 690 00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:44,280 Speaker 10: people are watching the careers of his five kids very closely, 691 00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:46,600 Speaker 10: so they're saying, this is like a big move and 692 00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:47,440 Speaker 10: some big news. 693 00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:53,120 Speaker 5: It's a threeon euro market cap. It's a big company. 694 00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:56,680 Speaker 2: It's a big, big company. It's really success. I remember 695 00:37:56,719 --> 00:38:00,319 Speaker 2: the day I believe they took out a part of 696 00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:03,880 Speaker 2: Laura Piana and that was in my mind, is an 697 00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:08,880 Speaker 2: amateur the first luxury transaction where everybody just stopped and said, 698 00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:12,480 Speaker 2: are you kidding me? And now you know, twenty years later, 699 00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:15,480 Speaker 2: thirty years later, here's what we is. So he's annoyted 700 00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,200 Speaker 2: to be the one of the X number of kids. 701 00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:21,120 Speaker 10: That's what people are saying. But we shall see there's 702 00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:24,920 Speaker 10: five yess success, they will. 703 00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:28,319 Speaker 2: I called it Frederick's people. I said, I said, can 704 00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:31,040 Speaker 2: you come on surveillance? And they said, we're not because 705 00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:32,839 Speaker 2: you call it Lewis Vieuden. I said, well that's how 706 00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:34,879 Speaker 2: I pronounce every day. 707 00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:39,560 Speaker 10: Okay. So the newest cruise offering is now on dry land. 708 00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:42,200 Speaker 10: These are like Royal Caribbean. They bought a seventeen acre 709 00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:46,440 Speaker 10: piece of land on the Bahamas, so it comes with everything. 710 00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:48,839 Speaker 10: But they're saying this is the new trend to go from, 711 00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:52,400 Speaker 10: you know, the the dry land private beach clubs. But 712 00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:54,359 Speaker 10: what the Wall Streeturnal, i mean, the New York Times 713 00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:57,120 Speaker 10: is saying is that there's some kind of backlash behind 714 00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:59,640 Speaker 10: it because the people on the island are saying that 715 00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:03,839 Speaker 10: they're hired to being priced out by foreign investors. It's 716 00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:07,040 Speaker 10: taken away from local, local economy. So that's kind of 717 00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:08,760 Speaker 10: the word and the matter. 718 00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:13,840 Speaker 2: Quickly you go to surveillance correspondent. Cruise corresponded Richard Truman. Richard, 719 00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:15,960 Speaker 2: would you go on a cruise ship that was on land. 720 00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:19,160 Speaker 2: He's going to Europe. He's gone, he's still cruising Europe. Yeah. 721 00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:21,919 Speaker 2: You pick it up in Gibraltar, and you go over 722 00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:24,680 Speaker 2: past Malta and all that, and you end up on 723 00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:28,120 Speaker 2: Cyprus and there's a PLoP up to Istanbul and you 724 00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:30,720 Speaker 2: come back. All right, rich Truman, Thank you for that wisdom. 725 00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:34,240 Speaker 2: Lisa Mateo, thank you. It is the newspapers. 726 00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:39,279 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 727 00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:43,680 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 728 00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:47,080 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, 729 00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:51,040 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 730 00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:54,440 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 731 00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:56,720 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal. 732 00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:01,799 Speaker 7: You really know how