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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the BlueBag Day Baker podcast. Good morning, it's

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Speaker 2: finding the twentieth of February. I'm Caroline Hipkea in London.

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Speaker 1: And I'm Stephen Carolin Brussels. Coming up today. US President

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump says Iran has two weeks to make a

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Speaker 1: deal as American forces gather in the Middle East.

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Speaker 2: Andrew Mountbatten Windsor's arrest sparks a crisis in the British

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Speaker 2: royal family as a police investigation continues into the former prince.

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Speaker 1: Plus, Christine Leguard says serving out her full term as

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Speaker 1: President of the European Central Bank is her baseline.

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Speaker 3: Let's start with the roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 1: The United States is continuing its military build up in

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Speaker 1: the Middle East, as President Trump says Iran has ten

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Speaker 1: to fifteen days to agree a deal over its nuclear program.

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Speaker 1: Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump was asked

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Speaker 1: what happens if no agreement has reached.

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Speaker 4: I'm not going to talk to you about it, but

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Speaker 4: we're either going to get a deal or it's going

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Speaker 4: to be unfortunate for them.

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Speaker 1: The US President was speaking as the United States now

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Speaker 1: has more forces in the Middle East than at any

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Speaker 1: point since the Iraq War. Donald Trump's use of the

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Speaker 1: military in his second term has been characterized by short engagements,

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Speaker 1: including previously bombing Iran, but US former Deputy National Security

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Speaker 1: Advisor Megan O'Sullivan says these troop movements don't follow that pattern.

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Speaker 5: This is the largest military build up of American force

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Speaker 5: and firepower that the world has seen since two thousand

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Speaker 5: and three, and I think it really raises questions about

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Speaker 5: what kind of action could the Trump administration be preparing.

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Speaker 1: I Sullivan ads the lack of clarity is driving in

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Speaker 1: security the risk of a wider conflict, since stocks lower

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Speaker 1: and extended as surgeon oil with brentkr rising above seventy

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Speaker 1: two dollars a barrel.

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Speaker 2: The US President's latest warnings come as Bloomberg has learned

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Speaker 2: that the U KAY has not granted permission for its

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Speaker 2: basis to be part of any strike on Iran. The

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Speaker 2: Times first reported Britain's lack of approval due to concerns

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Speaker 2: over international law. Donald Trump spoke by telephone to the

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Speaker 2: UK Prime Minister Kitstarma on Tuesday about Iran. The following day,

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Speaker 2: the US president changed his public stance on the Chagos Islands,

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Speaker 2: which is host to the US UK base, saying that

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Speaker 2: key military bases there would be critical for any strike

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Speaker 2: on Iran.

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Speaker 1: In the UK, former Prince Andrew Mountbatten Windsor has been

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Speaker 1: released under investigation. That's after the brother of King Charles

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Speaker 1: the Third was arrested yesterday on suspicion of misconduct and

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Speaker 1: public office. The arrest came after further details of Andrew

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Speaker 1: muc Batten Windsor's relationship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein emerged.

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Speaker 1: The former princess consistently denied any wrongdoing. Legal commentator Joshua

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Speaker 1: Rosenberg says any decision to chargement and Windsor could take time.

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Speaker 4: The police work really starts now. They have to look

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Speaker 4: at all the documents, see what they can find out

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Speaker 4: from the authorities from the government, then take advice from

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Speaker 4: the Ground Prosecution Service and finally decide whether they have

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Speaker 4: enough evidence to bring charges. That could take months.

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Speaker 1: That's bigod commentator Joshua Rosenberg. King Charles the Third issued

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Speaker 1: a statement outlining his deepest concern about the matter and

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Speaker 1: promised Buckingham Pallas as full and holdhearted support and cooperation

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Speaker 1: with the investigating authorities.

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Speaker 2: Christine Lagarde says that she expects completing her mission as

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Speaker 2: President of the European Central Bank will take until the

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Speaker 2: end of her term, amid speculation that she could resign early.

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Speaker 2: In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, she said, quote,

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Speaker 2: the baseline is that it will take until the end

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Speaker 2: of her turn to achieve her goals of financial stability

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Speaker 2: and protecting the euro.

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Speaker 3: She also told the newspaper the World.

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Speaker 2: Economic Forum is quote one of the many options she

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Speaker 2: is considering once she leaves the Central Bank now. She

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Speaker 2: declined to comment on reports in The Financial Times this

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Speaker 2: week suggesting that she would step down before her term

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Speaker 2: expires in October twenty twenty seven. It had been reported

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Speaker 2: that her early departure would give French presidents rumnu in

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Speaker 2: Macon time to have a say in picking her successor

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Speaker 2: at the ECB before the April twenty twenty seven presidential

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Speaker 2: election in France.

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Speaker 1: Bank of America is committing twenty five billion dollars of

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Speaker 1: its own capital to private credit deals. It's throwing a

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Speaker 1: number of Wall Street firms and putting its own balance

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Speaker 1: sheet behind lending in the fast growing market. Who Brooks

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Speaker 1: Freddi Faullstone has more.

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Speaker 6: The Wall Street Giant is looking to tap a one

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Speaker 6: point eight trillion dollar private credit industry that has boomed

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Speaker 6: in recent years, and it's planning to originate the new

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Speaker 6: deals from its existing Capital markets division. However, it's one

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Speaker 6: of the last big US banks to formally commit to

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Speaker 6: a market that offers high risk and high return. The

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Speaker 6: industry has attracted scrutiny over valuations and the quality of lending.

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Speaker 6: Shares in blue Out dropped on Thursday after saying it

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Speaker 6: would restrict withdrawals from one of its private credit funds

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Speaker 6: in London. Freddie Fulston Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: And Video is reportedly close to a new agreement with

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Speaker 2: Open AI that will downgrade its long term one hundred

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Speaker 2: billion dollar deal with the firm. The Financial Times is

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Speaker 2: reporting the chip giant is near to agreeing a thirty

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Speaker 2: billion dollar equity deal to replace its bigger commitments now.

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Speaker 2: The retreat comes as the wider market has been rattled

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Speaker 2: by concerns over the health of the AI sector, and

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Speaker 2: Video is the only member of the mag seven stocks

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Speaker 2: that is currently posting a positive return year to date.

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Speaker 2: Those are our top stories for you this morning. In

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Speaker 2: terms of the markets a six month high. Now for

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Speaker 2: oil prices with Middle East risks rising, you have brain

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Speaker 2: read futures trading at seventy two dollars fifteen are by

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Speaker 2: seven tenths of one percent. There's also the possibility, only

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Speaker 2: a possibility, that with the US Supreme Court returning from recess,

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Speaker 2: there could be maybe an opinion on Trump tariffs today

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Speaker 2: Hank saying Tech index is dropping two percent, so the

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Speaker 2: AI and tech concerns remain there in focus. In parts

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Speaker 2: of the market. The costpy though up by two point

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Speaker 2: two percent. Stop futures for Europe also surging a solid

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Speaker 2: four tenths higher this morning, the pound and euro weaker.

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Speaker 2: Treasury yields ten year US yields flat are four spots

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Speaker 2: zero seven.

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Speaker 3: Those are the markets.

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Speaker 1: In a moment, we'll bring you the latest on the

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Speaker 1: US around tensions, plus what former Prince Andrew's arrest means

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Speaker 1: for the British royal family, put all the story that

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Speaker 1: caught r E this morning, and maybe what might be

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Speaker 1: my new conversation starter question, what's the best party you've

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Speaker 1: ever been to? This is a fascinating trip down memory lane.

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Speaker 1: I would hope for all of us. Kate craters and

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Speaker 1: speaking to a series of CEOs though about the best

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Speaker 1: celebrations they've been to. The The are a mix of

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Speaker 1: milestone birthdays, the charity fundreiser hosted by Ray Dalio, and

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Speaker 1: more she spoke to, including Tim Martin, the boss of Weatherspoons,

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Speaker 1: who talks about going to a pool side party in

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Speaker 1: Jamaica in nineteen seventy seven where his father was working

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Speaker 1: for Guinness.

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Speaker 3: That sounded fun.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I've met Tim Martin. I suspect he throws a

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Speaker 2: very good party. Of course, he's in the hospitality industry,

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Speaker 2: and most of these CEOs are so Yeah, it was lovely.

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Speaker 2: I think that this story at the beginning, Kate talks

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Speaker 2: about how it's going to make you jealous, because a

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Speaker 2: lot of these parties sound really fabulous. But as you say,

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Speaker 2: I think it was just brought to mind all the

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Speaker 2: great celebrations I've been to and maybe we should have

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Speaker 2: a few more.

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Speaker 1: Let's organize one now we're all invited. I have to

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Speaker 1: say I was a semi professional wedding guest in my

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Speaker 1: twenties and thirties, and there's nothing quite like an Irish wedding.

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Speaker 1: But I think my absolute apax was an Irish Italian

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Speaker 1: wedding in the south of Italy just to beat expects,

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Speaker 1: shall we say, on so many fronts, the food, the atmosphere, everything,

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Speaker 1: that was what came out top of my list.

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Speaker 2: Oh, I love it. Reminiscences how good? Yes, definitely we

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Speaker 2: need to have a party when we're back in the

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Speaker 2: same city to get.

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Speaker 3: Well.

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Speaker 1: Let's we'll put a link to that show that story

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Speaker 1: in our podcast show Notes. But I want to bring

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Speaker 1: you now more on our top story this morning and

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Speaker 1: the latest we've heard from the United States about a

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Speaker 1: potential military strike on Iran. President Trump says Tehrana's up

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Speaker 1: to fifteen days to strike a deal now over its

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Speaker 1: nuclear program. Our head of Middle East, North Africa and

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Speaker 1: Russia coverage, Stuart Livingston Wallace, joins US Now for more. Stuart,

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Speaker 1: good morning. It seemed earlier this week that tensions were

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Speaker 1: being dialed down after the talks in Geneva. What do

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Speaker 1: the US President's comments and this new deadline mean for Iran?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, good morning. I mean I think it ratchets up

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Speaker 7: the pressure and really what they're trying, certainly what the

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Speaker 7: US administration seems to be trying to do, is speed

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Speaker 7: up the process so when they came out of that

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Speaker 7: second round of talks, neither the idea was that Iran

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Speaker 7: would have or both sides rather would have two weeks

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Speaker 7: to come up with draft proposals for something fairly substantial

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Speaker 7: that they could negotiate around. This definitely seems to be

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Speaker 7: trying to accelerate that process now. Part I think of

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Speaker 7: the incentive here is that he has an awful lot

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Speaker 7: of military equipment in the Region's more arriving as you know,

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Speaker 7: as a second strike carrier group coming down the Mediterranean

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Speaker 7: right now, and he doesn't necessarily think that he has

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Speaker 7: months and months to do a long run negotiation in

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Speaker 7: the vein of what we saw with the last nuclear called,

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Speaker 7: which I think start to finish was about two years.

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Speaker 7: That is not the timeframe we're talking about here.

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Speaker 2: So what do we know then about what President Trump

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Speaker 2: is threatening then in terms of military action, What might

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Speaker 2: be the scenarios.

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Speaker 7: Well, he hasn't said anything specific beyond the rhetoric that

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Speaker 7: you've seen repeatedly over the last several weeks, but you know,

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Speaker 7: moving into the realms of speculation, it could range on

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Speaker 7: one end of the spectrum from a quick hit on

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Speaker 7: things like, for instance, military targets again that would be

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Speaker 7: designed to accelerate the negotiating process and to try and

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Speaker 7: get Iran to conceive more points on that, particularly around

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Speaker 7: the nuclear file, and perhaps to extend it to ballistic

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Speaker 7: missiles and regional proxies, which are the other two big

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Speaker 7: issues that Iran sort of resisted talking about, but the

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Speaker 7: US and others are very keen to get addressed. And

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Speaker 7: then at the other end of the spectrum, you have

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Speaker 7: regime change now that you know, there's a lot of

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Speaker 7: debate about whether you can do that with the kind

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Speaker 7: of fire powder they had and without boots on the ground.

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Speaker 7: And then there's a whole range of scenarios in between.

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Speaker 7: But again, the targets one would assume would be mostly military,

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Speaker 7: and there are an awful lot of those to go after,

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Speaker 7: as we saw with the Twelve Day war in June

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Speaker 7: last year.

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Speaker 1: Stuart, have we heard anything from Iran since Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: issued this deadline or how should we expect them to respond?

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Speaker 7: I mean, so far, there's not been much out of

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Speaker 7: them since Geneva obviously came out of those talks and said,

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Speaker 7: you know that there've been reasonably good progress. I think

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Speaker 7: we'll watch, you know, Friday is an important day. You

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Speaker 7: have Friday prayers and maybe there'll be some sort of

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Speaker 7: communication coming out after that. And remember also we're now

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Speaker 7: in Ramadan, so typically things go a bit quieter in

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Speaker 7: the regions. So again, you know, we'll be watching over

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Speaker 7: the next few days to see what people come out with.

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Speaker 7: But so far Iran has made it clear that it

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Speaker 7: has no intention of capitulating. It wants to negotiation, and

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Speaker 7: it really wants to focus those negotiations solely on the

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Speaker 7: nuclear file. So what we're watching for is any sort

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Speaker 7: of budget in those positions.

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Speaker 2: Okay, we'll continue to watch then, Stuart, thank you so

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Speaker 2: much for being with us to at Livingston Wallace is

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Speaker 2: our head of Middle East, North Africa and Russia coverage.

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Speaker 2: As we see all prices continuing to ratchet higher over

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Speaker 2: the worries in the Middle East.

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Speaker 3: Stay with us from Bloomberg Daybaqube coming up after this.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 1: Andrew man Batten Windsor has been released from police custody

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Speaker 1: without charge following his arrest on suspicion of misconduct in

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Speaker 1: public office. The investigation into the former princes continuing. His

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Speaker 1: arrest heaps further embarrassment on Britain's royal family. Following years

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Speaker 1: of Laura's allegations about ties with Jeffrey Epstein that Andrew

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Speaker 1: has consistently denied. Our reporter tia Adebayo joins us now

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Speaker 1: from more Tiwa. First of all, what do we know

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Speaker 1: about the investigation?

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Speaker 8: Well, so far, as you mentioned, we know that he

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Speaker 8: was arrested yesterday on suspicion of misconduct in public office.

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Speaker 8: The latest is that he has now been released from

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Speaker 8: police custody under investigation. That was yesterday evening. The Thames

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Speaker 8: Valley Police have confirmed the release of a man in

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Speaker 8: his sixties in Norfolk, but as is per the national

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Speaker 8: guidance in the UK, they themselves have not named him.

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Speaker 8: But in their most recent update about the investigation, and

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Speaker 8: the police force also said that it has concluded its

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Speaker 8: searches in Norfolk, where the former Prince currently resides on

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Speaker 8: the Sunderingham estates. But also the BBC was reporting yesterday

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Speaker 8: that they are still searching the former Prince's former home,

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Speaker 8: which is Royal Lodge in Berkshire. He moved out just

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Speaker 8: a few weeks ago onto the Sandream estate. So as

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Speaker 8: of right now it seems investigations are ongoing but Andrew

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Speaker 8: mount Batten Windsor has been released from police custody. What

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Speaker 8: has the royal firmly said, Well, the Royal household and

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Speaker 8: the King have released a number of statements over the

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Speaker 8: last few months and that's really the speculation surrounding Andrew

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Speaker 8: has grown. The theme, the overarching theme has really been

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Speaker 8: support for law enforcement and acknowledgment of victims, and we

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Speaker 8: saw that in the most recent statement from the King yesterday.

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Speaker 8: He said he learned of the news of the arrest

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Speaker 8: with the deepest concern, but reiterated that the authorities have

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Speaker 8: the families full and whole hearted support and the investigation.

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Speaker 8: He also said that the law must take his course.

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Speaker 8: We did see the King at a public engagement yesterday

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Speaker 8: as this news was breaking. He was present at a

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Speaker 8: London Fashion Week show alongside Queen Camilla as well. But

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Speaker 8: of course this isn't the first time that the royals

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Speaker 8: have spoken out. We heard the last statement just earlier

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Speaker 8: this month. That was following the release of that tranch

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Speaker 8: of files from the US Department of Justice relating to

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Speaker 8: the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, and in that statement

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Speaker 8: the King also said that the family were ready to

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Speaker 8: support Thames Police in the event that they were approached.

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Speaker 8: We have heard from other households within the royal establishment

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Speaker 8: to the Prince and Princess of Wales also showed their

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Speaker 8: support for the victims of Epstein earlier this month, saying

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Speaker 8: they were deeply concerned by the continuing revelations. So we've

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Speaker 8: definitely heard a lot from the royal family about this

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Speaker 8: mass at, which I would add is quite uncharacteristic for

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Speaker 8: the royal establishment in the UK.

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Speaker 1: Now, Andrew has consistently denied wrongdoing, but he had stopped

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Speaker 1: undertaking royal duties following a twenty nineteen TV interview.

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Speaker 8: Yes, it was announced following that BBC interview in November

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Speaker 8: twenty nineteen, which did have quite a negative reception around

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Speaker 8: the world, that Andrew would step back from public duties

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Speaker 8: for the foreseeable future. And that was really the beginning

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Speaker 8: of a process of him sort of being distanced from

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Speaker 8: the working royal family in the UK, and it culminated

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Speaker 8: really towards the end of last year in October, when

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Speaker 8: we heard that Andrew was voluntarily giving up his royal titles,

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Speaker 8: namely the Duke of York title. And then what followed

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Speaker 8: was the formal stripping of his titles by the King,

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Speaker 8: and it's interesting. In the statement that the King released

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Speaker 8: recently about this, he referenced unprecedented actions that he's taken

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Speaker 8: out of concern for this situation. It seems one of

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Speaker 8: those was the stripping of the titles formerly. It's something

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Speaker 8: which has never really been seen before in the UK.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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