1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,720
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

2
00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:07,640
Speaker 1: read a lot? They're a running a game.

3
00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:17,440
Speaker 2: So smoothe so sweet, splendid sisting, just glorious execution.

4
00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,120
Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

5
00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:22,480
Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time.

6
00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:25,400
Speaker 2: How shot with that shop of mind?

7
00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:29,400
Speaker 4: Good buddy, And that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

8
00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:32,240
Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount of the planet.

9
00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:33,000
Speaker 1: Nobody pics them.

10
00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:38,639
Speaker 4: God shut up, I'm trying.

11
00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:40,640
Speaker 3: Again.

12
00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:42,360
Speaker 5: The one.

13
00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:47,840
Speaker 2: It's left to one, the wide eyed drill bibus, how

14
00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:49,760
Speaker 2: old Earth pick that happens?

15
00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:53,400
Speaker 4: Hello, everybody, Welcome back to Wonderful, the Soccer betting podcast

16
00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:56,200
Speaker 4: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Lieba. Joining

17
00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:59,640
Speaker 4: me as always are my colleagues and soccer experts and

18
00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:05,360
Speaker 4: friends Anthony Dubundo Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and BJ Cunningham of Dubuque, Iowa.

19
00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:06,360
Speaker 1: Gentlemen.

20
00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:09,520
Speaker 4: Match Week one of the Premier League is in the books.

21
00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:12,160
Speaker 4: So now we get to do is it real? Is

22
00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:16,200
Speaker 4: it our overreaction? It's something that you do in every sport,

23
00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:18,800
Speaker 4: especially in the NFL college football.

24
00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:20,360
Speaker 5: The betting market.

25
00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:23,520
Speaker 4: Will overreact to what we saw in Week one that

26
00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:26,759
Speaker 4: is not just an American phenomenon, it's an English phenomenon too.

27
00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:29,759
Speaker 4: It happens in the Premier League. So let's start with

28
00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:33,560
Speaker 4: what could be an overreaction. That's Tottenham Hotspur. They're visiting

29
00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:37,040
Speaker 4: Chelsea eleven thirty am on Sunday. Spurs plus two to

30
00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:39,480
Speaker 4: twenty on the road, Chelsea plus one twenty five at

31
00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:42,560
Speaker 4: home the draws plus two thirty five. Spurs were awesome

32
00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:45,200
Speaker 4: on Saturday in a four to one win against Southampton,

33
00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:47,760
Speaker 4: but as we said last week, you couldn't have picked

34
00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:51,560
Speaker 4: a better opponent for Spurs in a week one match,

35
00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:54,800
Speaker 4: especially with them playing at home. They drubbed Southampton for

36
00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:56,960
Speaker 4: to one, didn't look close, even though they had to

37
00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,680
Speaker 4: come back. So now they take on Chelsea, a much

38
00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:03,000
Speaker 4: more different animal than Southampton, not just because of talent,

39
00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:06,000
Speaker 4: but Chelsea's a much more stoic, pragmatic team. They like

40
00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:09,720
Speaker 4: the ball, they defend well, they're very organized and well coached.

41
00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,920
Speaker 4: So BJ go to Anthony second, since he's a Spurs tragic.

42
00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:15,919
Speaker 4: You're an arsenal guy. You hate Spurs with every fiber

43
00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:19,160
Speaker 4: of your being. Is Tottenham inflated here?

44
00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:22,400
Speaker 3: Yes, one thousand percent inflated, and even you can see

45
00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:25,040
Speaker 3: it from what Chelsea opened at. I mean Chelsea opened

46
00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:26,960
Speaker 3: at plus one oh five and now we're reaching plus

47
00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:29,840
Speaker 3: one twenty five and plus one eventually maybe gonna get

48
00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:33,200
Speaker 3: to plus one thirty. Did Chelsea really look that bad

49
00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:34,359
Speaker 3: against Everton?

50
00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:34,880
Speaker 1: I don't think so.

51
00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:36,720
Speaker 3: I thought they looked in control for most of the match.

52
00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:39,760
Speaker 3: The biggest thing is that these teams met three times

53
00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:41,600
Speaker 3: last year when Conte was in charge, twice in the

54
00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:43,600
Speaker 3: NFL Cup semis. If you want to throw them out,

55
00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:47,000
Speaker 3: that's fine. I mean Chelsea was pretty dominant in both

56
00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:48,600
Speaker 3: of those matches. I mean they won two to nothing

57
00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:52,480
Speaker 3: and one nothing, and then they played at Stanford Bridge

58
00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:56,720
Speaker 3: under Conte Chelsea won two nothing. You know next year

59
00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:59,080
Speaker 3: was point nine too, point four. But the biggest thing

60
00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:01,639
Speaker 3: is Chelsea closed it minus one forty in that match.

61
00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:06,560
Speaker 3: So are we really saying from January twenty third that

62
00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:10,400
Speaker 3: Chelsea is either seventy cents worse or Tottenham is seventy

63
00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:12,840
Speaker 3: cents better on the money line, I don't think so.

64
00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:16,320
Speaker 3: Did Chelsea's defense really get that much worse over the

65
00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:18,560
Speaker 3: transfer window? I don't think so. I think Coolbali for

66
00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:21,040
Speaker 3: Rudiger is basically a one for one swap. And yes,

67
00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:23,000
Speaker 3: I know Anthony's probably going to talk about how Chelsea's

68
00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:25,639
Speaker 3: midfield is old and how Tottenham can run right through them,

69
00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,760
Speaker 3: and that is a legitimate concern, but I think Chelsea's

70
00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,960
Speaker 3: attack got a big time upgrade with Raheem Sterling and

71
00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:34,640
Speaker 3: I really just don't understand. I mean, I guess I

72
00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,080
Speaker 3: get it because we've seen, you know, from the futures

73
00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:40,440
Speaker 3: market and even you know match week one that people

74
00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:43,480
Speaker 3: love to bet Tottenham like and this is another situation

75
00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,560
Speaker 3: where people, I think are just buying into a Tottenham

76
00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:49,400
Speaker 3: for one drubbing of Southampton. I mean, I won't even

77
00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:51,240
Speaker 3: get into the fact that they scored four off to

78
00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:56,040
Speaker 3: expect it. But Southampton is horrific defensively and has shown

79
00:03:56,080 --> 00:04:00,000
Speaker 3: no signs of getting better. So are people really overreact

80
00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:00,520
Speaker 3: to that?

81
00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:01,880
Speaker 1: So I don't see it.

82
00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:03,920
Speaker 3: I have Chelsea projected at plus one ten, which I

83
00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,600
Speaker 3: thought that was a fair line, especially when it opened,

84
00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:08,480
Speaker 3: But now we're getting up to plus one twenty five

85
00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:10,600
Speaker 3: and plus one thirty. I'm gonna have to play Chelsea,

86
00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:13,320
Speaker 3: especially at home here, so I'm taking Chelsea plus one

87
00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:13,839
Speaker 3: twenty five.

88
00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,599
Speaker 4: And it's not just a Southampton result. Like you alluded

89
00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:21,960
Speaker 4: to, Tottenham was the trendy pit to upset the top two

90
00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:25,080
Speaker 4: in the futures market. So there's a lot of confirmation

91
00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:26,839
Speaker 4: by It's not just in the media but with fans,

92
00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:28,479
Speaker 4: who oh, you know, I think Tottenham can have a

93
00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:30,520
Speaker 4: good year this year. I think they could surprise people.

94
00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:32,599
Speaker 4: And then you see them do what they did in

95
00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:34,560
Speaker 4: Week one, and all of a sudden, those people are

96
00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,200
Speaker 4: thinking I was right, Tottenham is going to be the

97
00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:41,880
Speaker 4: title challenger. Especially with Liverpool being terrible against Fulham. People

98
00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:43,760
Speaker 4: are just throwing people down to Chelsea.

99
00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:44,800
Speaker 1: Down on it.

100
00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,880
Speaker 4: I think Chelsea's being treated here like like what Man

101
00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:52,159
Speaker 4: United would be treated like in the market against Spurs,

102
00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:54,000
Speaker 4: Like it's like a team in that like fifth, sixth, seventh,

103
00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:57,680
Speaker 4: three just is still probably the fourth best team in

104
00:04:57,720 --> 00:04:58,440
Speaker 4: the Premier League.

105
00:04:58,440 --> 00:04:59,680
Speaker 5: They're at home third.

106
00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:01,800
Speaker 4: Maybe third best team in the Premier League, right Like,

107
00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,080
Speaker 4: this is a good team, They're very well coached. This

108
00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:08,640
Speaker 4: line on Chelsea looks really good. So I'm I'm gonna

109
00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:10,800
Speaker 4: be taking the favorite here at home. Plus one twenty

110
00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:13,680
Speaker 4: five is a good number on the Blues, Anthony. We

111
00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:15,760
Speaker 4: were all on Spurs by the way last week. BJ

112
00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:17,960
Speaker 4: minus one and a half. Myself mightus one and a

113
00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,120
Speaker 4: half Anthony just with his heart, but betting, you know,

114
00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:23,640
Speaker 4: you can just throw that out the window now and

115
00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:25,719
Speaker 4: just completely a jump ship to the other side. And

116
00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,640
Speaker 4: that's what I'm doing, Chelsea, Anthony, what do you see

117
00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:29,159
Speaker 4: for this one?

118
00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:31,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I wasn't really sure where I was

119
00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:32,919
Speaker 2: gonna end up on this match. I kind of went

120
00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:35,000
Speaker 2: back and forth with myself about it, and then I,

121
00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:37,160
Speaker 2: you know, updated my numbers and I came in right

122
00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:39,880
Speaker 2: at the market. So I don't have a bet on

123
00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:44,520
Speaker 2: this match. I think Spurs are marginally better on paper,

124
00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:47,599
Speaker 2: and I do have long term you know, my concerns

125
00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:49,560
Speaker 2: with Chelsea are more long term in the sense that

126
00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,200
Speaker 2: you know, if Kante or Georgino or Covid Chicic aren't

127
00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:56,240
Speaker 2: able to play, the drop off is significant, Whereas I

128
00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:59,159
Speaker 2: think Spurs have more depth in the midfield and you

129
00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:01,839
Speaker 2: know Son and Kanner's and Kane right, Chelsea did beat

130
00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:04,479
Speaker 2: Spurs three times. They dominated the midfield exchanges in all

131
00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:06,680
Speaker 2: of those matches, and I think that was really the

132
00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:08,839
Speaker 2: thing that was a bit eye opening. It was early

133
00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:11,360
Speaker 2: in the Conte era, it was before Spurs really kicked

134
00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:15,480
Speaker 2: into gear in February, Kulaseevski coming in Bentenkour were not

135
00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:19,360
Speaker 2: in those three matches, but you know, Hoyberg played, Winks played,

136
00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:23,440
Speaker 2: and so Chelsea's three to five to two. You know,

137
00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:25,440
Speaker 2: Lukaku did play one of the matches. They went they

138
00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:28,760
Speaker 2: played it back four, but Chelsea's back three kind of

139
00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:33,040
Speaker 2: negated what Spurs back three looks to exploit a little bit,

140
00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:37,039
Speaker 2: and Kane often found himself very isolated in those matches.

141
00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:39,560
Speaker 2: And Son did not play at least one of them.

142
00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:41,120
Speaker 2: I think it might have been two of them, and

143
00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:43,080
Speaker 2: so that definitely factors in as well. But I do

144
00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:45,960
Speaker 2: think that there's something to be said for all the

145
00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:49,120
Speaker 2: talk of the new transfers that Spurs may disposedly improve

146
00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:50,960
Speaker 2: this team. They didn't start any new signings in the

147
00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:55,320
Speaker 2: first match. We may see Parisich, but otherwise this is

148
00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:57,080
Speaker 2: the same Spurs team that rolled out of the end

149
00:06:57,080 --> 00:07:00,880
Speaker 2: the last season that was very good. But again, you know,

150
00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:03,120
Speaker 2: I agree with you guys on the market sentiment, on

151
00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,880
Speaker 2: the narrative, on the public situation here where Spurs scored

152
00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:07,320
Speaker 2: more goals than anybody in the second half of the

153
00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:10,000
Speaker 2: season last year. They ran pretty well finishing wise, after

154
00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:12,320
Speaker 2: having a terrible finishing stretch the first half of the season,

155
00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:15,160
Speaker 2: and so I think you're absolutely right in the sense

156
00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:16,960
Speaker 2: that the market has gotten a little bit too carried

157
00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:21,240
Speaker 2: away on Tottenham here. I do think there is a

158
00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:25,200
Speaker 2: you know, a pretty concerning first performance Chelsea. I didn't

159
00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:27,080
Speaker 2: think they were that good. I thought, yes, they controlled

160
00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:28,920
Speaker 2: the match, but if you look at kind of the

161
00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:32,720
Speaker 2: underlying numbers, it was pretty concerning. They dominated the field

162
00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:34,480
Speaker 2: til which they always are going to do against Everton,

163
00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:37,520
Speaker 2: you know, seventy to thirty, but I expected threat one

164
00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:40,880
Speaker 2: point six XG one point six with a penalty. There

165
00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:42,800
Speaker 2: weren't a lot of clear scoring chances and they really

166
00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:44,920
Speaker 2: struggled to get the ball from the final third into

167
00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:47,760
Speaker 2: the box to create those chances, and so I think

168
00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:49,920
Speaker 2: that could be an issue against Spurs. I also think

169
00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:54,520
Speaker 2: Spurs attack has not played. They def you know, the

170
00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:56,160
Speaker 2: defenses that they played at the end of the season

171
00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:58,800
Speaker 2: last year. Liverpool match didn't really create a time you know,

172
00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:00,480
Speaker 2: one or two big chances are kind of what they're

173
00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:03,400
Speaker 2: relying on, and so I would lean toward the under here,

174
00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:05,400
Speaker 2: but overall going to end up passing.

175
00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:08,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, let's actually transition to that Everdon bill a match

176
00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:12,040
Speaker 4: that's seven thirty am on Saturday. Philli minus one twenty five,

177
00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:14,640
Speaker 4: Everdon plus three sixty the draw plus two fifty five.

178
00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:16,640
Speaker 4: And I want to segue into this one because I

179
00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:20,640
Speaker 4: think what you're alluding to Anthony's is correct. Chelsea was

180
00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:23,960
Speaker 4: in control of that game, but one dumb mistake by

181
00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,400
Speaker 4: Everden changes that from being a nil nil draw to

182
00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:28,640
Speaker 4: one nothing win from Chelsea. And if it was a

183
00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:30,640
Speaker 4: nil nil draw, think about the number we'd be getting

184
00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:33,520
Speaker 4: on Chelsea instead of a plus one twenty five against Furs,

185
00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:37,120
Speaker 4: it'd be even higher. That Everdon set up I thought

186
00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:41,400
Speaker 4: was pretty clever from Lampard, which was we're just going

187
00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:44,720
Speaker 4: to stay fighting relegation from week one. Basically, that was

188
00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:48,520
Speaker 4: a relegation team set up against a big favor, right.

189
00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:51,040
Speaker 4: They packed it in. They did a very good job

190
00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:53,760
Speaker 4: of staying solid at the back. They coped with two

191
00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:58,280
Speaker 4: injuries to center backs to Yerry Meena of course Ben

192
00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:02,040
Speaker 4: Godfrey within fifteen minutes of the season, so it was

193
00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:05,959
Speaker 4: good to watch Everdon lose both to their starting center

194
00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:09,360
Speaker 4: backs within the first sixty minutes of the season. Connor

195
00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:13,319
Speaker 4: Cody is lashed in quickly to help solidify that back line.

196
00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:15,400
Speaker 4: Now he'll be playing with James Tarkowski. I think for

197
00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:19,200
Speaker 4: Everdon that's a smart transfer, right, Like we always look

198
00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:21,240
Speaker 4: at transfers kind of as like a broad thing. But

199
00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:24,840
Speaker 4: does Connor Cody work for Tottenham Hotspur? No? But for this,

200
00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:27,679
Speaker 4: for Everton and their mission this season, I think absolutely.

201
00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:30,160
Speaker 4: And I think Lampard kind of tipped his hand that

202
00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:33,280
Speaker 4: like he's not going to play the kind of buccaneering

203
00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:35,719
Speaker 4: football that we saw out of him at Derby and

204
00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,160
Speaker 4: then at Chelsea. He I think he's committed to making

205
00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:42,440
Speaker 4: sure Everytton is solid at the back, keep providing a

206
00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:44,760
Speaker 4: foundation for them to build off of it and not

207
00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:48,240
Speaker 4: get sucked into a true relegation scrap. And that is

208
00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:51,559
Speaker 4: only going to be accentuated further by Cody's arrival, I believe.

209
00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:55,680
Speaker 4: So what a dreary looking match this is against aston Villa,

210
00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:57,280
Speaker 4: who is another team who I think is just going

211
00:09:57,360 --> 00:09:59,560
Speaker 4: to do the same thing, like these are two walls

212
00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:02,400
Speaker 4: looking at each other for ninety minutes. That Everdon match

213
00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:06,920
Speaker 4: against Chelsea was horrible if you're neutral, and it was

214
00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:08,800
Speaker 4: one hundred and ten minutes long. Because if the injury

215
00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:11,600
Speaker 4: is time in the first and second half. But at

216
00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:14,360
Speaker 4: the same time as it Everden support her. I was like, fine,

217
00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:16,360
Speaker 4: this is totally fine. This is a way to just

218
00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,160
Speaker 4: put some points in the pocket and I don't mind

219
00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:20,520
Speaker 4: them at the big price against Villa and.

220
00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:23,439
Speaker 2: They didn't put any points in the pocket, right, I guess.

221
00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:24,800
Speaker 5: But they will eventually.

222
00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:27,400
Speaker 4: If they play like that and they play that solid

223
00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:30,600
Speaker 4: defensively against worse teams than Chelsea, They're gonna put points

224
00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:31,160
Speaker 4: in their pocket.

225
00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:33,200
Speaker 5: Will they ever score? Great question?

226
00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,560
Speaker 4: Solomon ron Don's back from suspension though, so look out.

227
00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,160
Speaker 4: I think that Villa evidence can set up for a

228
00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:42,200
Speaker 4: draw a bet on the draw. The unders juice pretty

229
00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:44,840
Speaker 4: heavily at two and a half, very low. I think

230
00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:47,280
Speaker 4: most people probably project this to be a pretty low

231
00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:51,280
Speaker 4: event game. But you're getting a good price on evidence

232
00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:53,920
Speaker 4: against the Villa team that I know Anthony's pretty high on.

233
00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:57,560
Speaker 4: But they just don't break defenses down well enough. So

234
00:10:57,800 --> 00:10:59,679
Speaker 4: I mean, I think Everyden's worth the shot here. Anthony

235
00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:03,079
Speaker 4: would have, Yeah, your last point is where I'll start.

236
00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:05,840
Speaker 4: They don't break defense as well down well enough, And

237
00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:07,600
Speaker 4: that's exactly what happened in the first match.

238
00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:10,720
Speaker 2: Villa had one point seven to three expected threat they

239
00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:15,120
Speaker 2: produced point seven expected goals. That is really bad. You know,

240
00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:17,040
Speaker 2: they were in and around the penalty area, and they

241
00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:19,840
Speaker 2: were in the final third a lot. Granted, they conceded

242
00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:22,040
Speaker 2: in a fourth minute, so naturally born With kind of

243
00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:24,680
Speaker 2: sat back. But Villa had a lot of the ball,

244
00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:27,040
Speaker 2: They had a lot of the possession in dangerous areas,

245
00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:29,840
Speaker 2: and they did very little to create clear scoring opportunities

246
00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:33,160
Speaker 2: with that dominated the field. But I was impressed by

247
00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:36,240
Speaker 2: Everton's defense. And this goes back to the Chelsea thing,

248
00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:38,640
Speaker 2: you know, and I just mentioned this. Chelsea had twenty

249
00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:40,880
Speaker 2: passes into the final third. They only got five passes

250
00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:44,880
Speaker 2: into the penalty area. That's pretty good stuff from Chelsea,

251
00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:50,480
Speaker 2: and I thought overall the Blues were able to possess

252
00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:52,480
Speaker 2: the ball but weren't able to get in the area. Well,

253
00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:54,000
Speaker 2: if the same thing's going to happen with a worse

254
00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:56,480
Speaker 2: attacking team in Villa, with not as good attacking players,

255
00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:58,760
Speaker 2: I think this sets up for Everton to kind of

256
00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:02,960
Speaker 2: just sit de Like you said, Lampard has learned from

257
00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:06,040
Speaker 2: the absolute blowout losses that they took at the beginning

258
00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:08,960
Speaker 2: of his tenure. They're clearly playing a more defensive style.

259
00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:12,240
Speaker 2: And this is one example where do we overreact to

260
00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:14,000
Speaker 2: week one or do we say the market still hasn't

261
00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:15,760
Speaker 2: caught up yet. I think this should be two and

262
00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:17,480
Speaker 2: a quarter. It's two and a half minus one twenty

263
00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:20,320
Speaker 2: to under. I played it. I put it in the appareaty.

264
00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:24,400
Speaker 2: I like it a lot. Villa had twenty two carries

265
00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:27,320
Speaker 2: into the final third against Bournemouth. They only got one

266
00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,320
Speaker 2: carry into the box. So it kind of gets to

267
00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:32,080
Speaker 2: the point, you know that this team just kind of

268
00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:34,640
Speaker 2: lacked ideas and you know, maybe it clicks and they win.

269
00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:37,679
Speaker 2: I do think they'll win this, but where does Everton's squiggles?

270
00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:39,600
Speaker 2: I mean, they didn't look like they had anything going

271
00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:43,120
Speaker 2: and you know, the decore Awobe midfield that we kind

272
00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:44,880
Speaker 2: of made fun of last week. They did a good

273
00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:47,559
Speaker 2: job in terms of tackling and ball winning and pressing,

274
00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:49,400
Speaker 2: like you know, they ran a lot and they put

275
00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:52,160
Speaker 2: a good effort in, but there is no passing in

276
00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:55,040
Speaker 2: that midfield and that's a major problem. So I don't

277
00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:58,280
Speaker 2: really see how they spring these direct attacks. It's kind

278
00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:00,120
Speaker 2: of just going to be lobbed up to Gordon and

279
00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:04,920
Speaker 2: let him run or you know, hopefully McNeil can find

280
00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:07,920
Speaker 2: a cross into Solomon Rondon, but you know, Villa's crossing

281
00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:11,400
Speaker 2: defense should be pretty good, So I like the under

282
00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:12,360
Speaker 2: I just.

283
00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:15,520
Speaker 4: Think the presence of a natural striker should help Everden

284
00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:17,520
Speaker 4: because it just put it pushes Gordon away from the

285
00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,640
Speaker 4: middle of the field, which is where he was. He's

286
00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,480
Speaker 4: much better on the wings, using his pace and getting

287
00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:27,800
Speaker 4: behind fallback. So like it's Slomon ron done right. He's

288
00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:30,600
Speaker 4: not the best striker in the world. He used to be,

289
00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:34,400
Speaker 4: but he's not anymore. So I'm not saying that ron

290
00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:36,320
Speaker 4: Don is going to be the difference just but just

291
00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:39,719
Speaker 4: having a target man could end up opening up Everden's

292
00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:42,840
Speaker 4: attack and giving them more options. And like you said

293
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:45,520
Speaker 4: that the Wobe's been really good in the middle of

294
00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:48,720
Speaker 4: the field for evidence him and Decry neither one, like

295
00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:50,480
Speaker 4: you said, neither one of them are going to pick

296
00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:53,880
Speaker 4: that pass to spring a quick counter or anything. But

297
00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:58,319
Speaker 4: they are bringing Amadu Onana Adresa Ganagay in terms of

298
00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:01,920
Speaker 4: at least his footballing is still very good. He looks

299
00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:03,440
Speaker 4: like he's gonna be in the door. So this and

300
00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:06,240
Speaker 4: and then obviously Cody too, like if Phila has the

301
00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:09,800
Speaker 4: same issues that Chelsea had against Everton, Tarkowski and Cody

302
00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:12,240
Speaker 4: in the middle, with Mason Holgate, who's great in the air,

303
00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:15,120
Speaker 4: who you know, he's good with his head. Although he

304
00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:17,439
Speaker 4: might not be the brightest soccer player, he's he is

305
00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:19,160
Speaker 4: good with his head. I just think they're gonna have

306
00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:21,160
Speaker 4: Trump breaking him down. You're look you like the under

307
00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:22,960
Speaker 4: that tells you that the margins in this game are

308
00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:25,400
Speaker 4: going to be pretty thin. Bja in a second will

309
00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:27,240
Speaker 4: tell you his bet, which also kind of points that direction,

310
00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:28,880
Speaker 4: which is why I like Everden. I think that we're

311
00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:31,200
Speaker 4: looking at close closer to a coin flip than the

312
00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:32,280
Speaker 4: odds will suggest.

313
00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:34,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just I just say I only project two

314
00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:36,480
Speaker 2: point two four goals here, So I do like the under, all.

315
00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:39,720
Speaker 3: Right, Michael, I think the biggest point you've missed is

316
00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:43,440
Speaker 3: that this was the Duncan Ferdson game last year the

317
00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:45,160
Speaker 3: aston Villa won won nothing.

318
00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:48,640
Speaker 4: So I remember I remember Steven Gerard sticking his tongue

319
00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:50,880
Speaker 4: out to the Yeah, that.

320
00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:53,000
Speaker 1: Game was just ready to run through the TV event.

321
00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:55,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was an incredibly low event type game, but

322
00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:57,320
Speaker 3: obviously a different manager. So you know, you can't really

323
00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,120
Speaker 3: buy too much into average and did, but I I

324
00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:00,720
Speaker 3: agree with Nanthy.

325
00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,920
Speaker 1: I don't see how aston.

326
00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:05,720
Speaker 3: Villa is gonna be threatening if they're gonna be asked

327
00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:06,920
Speaker 3: to have the ball quite a bit.

328
00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:08,440
Speaker 1: And you saw that against Bournemouth.

329
00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:11,440
Speaker 3: No obviously game state change that if Bournemouth doesn't go

330
00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:13,320
Speaker 3: up in the fourth minute, aston Villa sit a little

331
00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:15,240
Speaker 3: deeper and looked a counter and newly promoted team. I

332
00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:17,600
Speaker 3: don't know, but like you said, this is Wall versus Wall.

333
00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:20,480
Speaker 3: I mean Aston Villa. They were set up as maybe

334
00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:23,160
Speaker 3: one of the biggest counter attacking teams in the Premier

335
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,960
Speaker 3: League last year and if listen, I'm gonna be honest,

336
00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:27,960
Speaker 3: that lineup they put out there against Bournemouth was a

337
00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:31,080
Speaker 3: little weird in my opinion. They went really, really defensive.

338
00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:32,840
Speaker 3: They won with the four to three three and they

339
00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:36,400
Speaker 3: went Kamara, Ramsey and McGinn in the in the center.

340
00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:37,880
Speaker 1: No Blendia, So they.

341
00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:41,600
Speaker 3: Didn't really have that creative type midfielder that can essentially

342
00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:45,600
Speaker 3: get forward and supply Danny Angsley on Bailey and Contino.

343
00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:47,680
Speaker 3: And if they're gonna play like that again, I mean, well,

344
00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:49,680
Speaker 3: Everton's just gonna sit in and they're gonna defend, and

345
00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:51,920
Speaker 3: this could be very very is probably gonna be very

346
00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:55,040
Speaker 3: similar to that Duncan Ferguson type match when Aston Villa

347
00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:56,840
Speaker 3: scored off a corner and they won one nothing and

348
00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:57,600
Speaker 3: that was pretty much it.

349
00:15:57,720 --> 00:15:59,640
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go both team to score no.

350
00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:01,800
Speaker 3: Currently at minus one oh five, I think that's a

351
00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:04,480
Speaker 3: pretty cheap price for this being essentially a very low

352
00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:07,480
Speaker 3: event type of game for two sides that I don't

353
00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,640
Speaker 3: see being very threatening at all or creating even close

354
00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:12,040
Speaker 3: to you know, one point five.

355
00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:15,120
Speaker 1: I barely even one expected goal. I mentioned it last week.

356
00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:18,640
Speaker 3: But Everton last season with Albert Charleston or Dominie Calvert

357
00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:21,600
Speaker 3: Lun in the lineup averaged just one expected goal for

358
00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:24,880
Speaker 3: ninety minutes and that was and there was you know

359
00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:27,120
Speaker 3: a handful of matches where both of them weren't in

360
00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:27,520
Speaker 3: the lineup.

361
00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:28,800
Speaker 1: So it's we have a.

362
00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,400
Speaker 3: Pretty good sample size that Everton's just not that great.

363
00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:34,400
Speaker 3: They just don't have another striking option beyond Dominie Calvert

364
00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:37,080
Speaker 3: Lewin right now. So yeah, both team to score no.

365
00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:39,840
Speaker 3: Minus one oh five. I haven't projected at minus one fifty.

366
00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:43,600
Speaker 3: I mean Gerrard's Aston Villa the only average one point

367
00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:46,120
Speaker 3: two xg P ninety under him, like that really wasn't

368
00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:48,360
Speaker 3: that good. They had seventeen big scoring chances in twenty

369
00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:53,080
Speaker 3: seven matches. Like that's bad, it's not good. So I yeah,

370
00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,320
Speaker 3: I agree with you guys. This has low event written

371
00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:58,480
Speaker 3: all over the unders. Little two juicy for me, So

372
00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:00,520
Speaker 3: I'm gonna end up just taking both team score no.

373
00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:02,320
Speaker 1: At minus one oh five, which I think is a

374
00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:03,000
Speaker 1: pretty good price.

375
00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:05,480
Speaker 4: I can't wait to get to this one Man City

376
00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:09,280
Speaker 4: minus twelve hundred at home hosting Boardman. There's highest they

377
00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:10,639
Speaker 4: were as high as thirty five to want to think

378
00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:12,160
Speaker 4: you can still catch a thirty five to one. There's

379
00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:14,240
Speaker 4: a thirty three to one out there as we're recording

380
00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:16,679
Speaker 4: on Tuesday. I know the dross plus nine fifty. We'll

381
00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,480
Speaker 4: keep this short because there's really no reason to get

382
00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,720
Speaker 4: into this one. We know what Man City is, Arling Holland.

383
00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:26,439
Speaker 4: I guess you know. Welcome, Welcome to Earling Holland, to

384
00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:29,440
Speaker 4: the Premier League. Right like he was incredible, uh and

385
00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:34,240
Speaker 4: and gives Pep a new dynamic to to his attack,

386
00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:37,000
Speaker 4: to be quick and to play balls behind who's better

387
00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:39,240
Speaker 4: than you know, Kevin de Bruyne or Phil Foden to

388
00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:39,480
Speaker 4: do that.

389
00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 5: So kudos to a city there's just.

390
00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:43,399
Speaker 4: No way I can look away from thirty three to

391
00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:46,040
Speaker 4: one in the ninety minute like a ninety soccer game.

392
00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:48,359
Speaker 2: So I'll be on boardman, I do common you know.

393
00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:51,600
Speaker 1: If you're going to play anything, play thirty three to one.

394
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, I have no There is no reason to

395
00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:55,800
Speaker 3: play Born withth plus three.

396
00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:56,920
Speaker 1: There's no reason to play sicky.

397
00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:59,600
Speaker 2: I disagree if I mean one that gets to plus

398
00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:00,480
Speaker 2: three on betting.

399
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:02,120
Speaker 1: It, no, because here's the deal.

400
00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:04,159
Speaker 2: I'm betting it. It's two and three quarters. If it

401
00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:05,199
Speaker 2: gets the three, I'm gonna bet it.

402
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,679
Speaker 3: I mean, I mean, they're the type of team, like

403
00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:10,879
Speaker 3: similar to like Burnley last year, where if they go

404
00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:12,600
Speaker 3: down one goal, it's not like they're just gonna open

405
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:14,680
Speaker 3: up the match and say, hey we're going to go

406
00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:16,320
Speaker 3: around and try to get back in this. Like they're

407
00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:19,400
Speaker 3: gonna play very defensive for the full ninety minutes. They're

408
00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:21,879
Speaker 3: probably not gonna be able to play through City's pressure.

409
00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:24,200
Speaker 3: So basically what you're betting on is that just.

410
00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:28,080
Speaker 2: City takes their foot off the gas and then.

411
00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:29,439
Speaker 1: The second match of the season. I don't see happening.

412
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:32,040
Speaker 5: I mean, I don't think we need to go much

413
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:32,800
Speaker 5: further into this game.

414
00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,920
Speaker 2: But Bournemouth team total over is plus one sixty five.

415
00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:38,919
Speaker 1: They're gonna get bet.

416
00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:41,639
Speaker 5: But if you're going to bet that, I'm not better.

417
00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:43,840
Speaker 2: I'm not betting them in any way as of right now.

418
00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,200
Speaker 2: But if it gets to plus three, you will see

419
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:46,639
Speaker 2: a wager.

420
00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:49,160
Speaker 5: You'll see no matter what, split your stake.

421
00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:52,399
Speaker 4: If you're going to get into bed with Bourne with

422
00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:55,879
Speaker 4: as a thirty three to one underdog against Manchester City

423
00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:58,800
Speaker 4: and and you're like, oh, I like to plus three, Like.

424
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:03,000
Speaker 5: Split your steak if you like them enough. Yeah, who cares?

425
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:06,480
Speaker 4: Like that's that's that's you're You're not going to see

426
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:08,560
Speaker 4: once a year you will see a number like this

427
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:10,320
Speaker 4: in Basically.

428
00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:12,120
Speaker 5: Here's the question, sport.

429
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,160
Speaker 3: Is this the biggest line of the year for the Premier?

430
00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:16,760
Speaker 3: Do you think nodding in Forest.

431
00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:17,399
Speaker 1: Is going to be the biggest one?

432
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:18,560
Speaker 2: When does City play Forest?

433
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 1: I don't know. But do you think that's gonna be

434
00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:20,719
Speaker 1: the biggest one?

435
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:22,679
Speaker 2: I think it depends on when City plays Forest?

436
00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:26,200
Speaker 3: Okay, because if City plays four, I agree, I agree

437
00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:27,200
Speaker 3: with that next.

438
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,600
Speaker 2: Week then, but if City plays them by the end

439
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:30,680
Speaker 2: of the year, I think we may.

440
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:33,399
Speaker 3: It's an interesting thing to think about, Like, no, it

441
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:35,000
Speaker 3: is are we going to see a thirty five to

442
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:36,760
Speaker 3: one again the rest of the league season.

443
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:37,280
Speaker 1: I don't know.

444
00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:39,080
Speaker 2: I mean there was a there was a famous Norwich

445
00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:39,680
Speaker 2: twenty to one.

446
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, a couple of years Crystal Palace was eighteen to one.

447
00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:45,720
Speaker 4: Stokes City did it too, Yeah, well it happens. It's

448
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:47,480
Speaker 4: the point is it happens once a year, there's a

449
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:49,520
Speaker 4: major shock and if it's not gonna be born with,

450
00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:51,280
Speaker 4: it's going to be another team. We're talking about later

451
00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:53,480
Speaker 4: in the show. But we'll get to that. So let's

452
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:54,280
Speaker 4: just park that one there.

453
00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:56,080
Speaker 5: There's really there's not much else you could go into it.

454
00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:56,600
Speaker 1: We can't.

455
00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:00,760
Speaker 2: City plays Forest end of the month on a Wednesday.

456
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:01,439
Speaker 1: I think.

457
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:04,639
Speaker 2: There might not be enough time for the market to

458
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:05,520
Speaker 2: down grade Forest.

459
00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 4: It's a city, it's at City. Yeah, all right, let's

460
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 4: park it. We'll get to that match in a couple

461
00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:14,600
Speaker 4: of weeks. Southampton and Leeds we'll talk about next. Saints

462
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:17,120
Speaker 4: plus one twenty five at home leads plus two fifteen

463
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:19,680
Speaker 4: on the road, the draw plus two forty five another

464
00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:23,160
Speaker 4: ten aam kickoff on the South coast. Southampton we already

465
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:28,680
Speaker 4: discussed look terrible against Tottenham, nightmare matchup Leeds United. Were

466
00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:31,440
Speaker 4: they good against Wolves? Was Wolves bed where they? Was

467
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:33,680
Speaker 4: it just a weird game? Jose Sab turned it to

468
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,400
Speaker 4: a pumpkin, and I was You're not going to learn

469
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:38,480
Speaker 4: anything from one game with anybody. But like Leeds was

470
00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:40,639
Speaker 4: already a mystery, I think coming in and became more

471
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 4: of a mystery with that win. I would say these

472
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:45,800
Speaker 4: two teams rank near the bottom of the league last

473
00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 4: year in terms of big chances allowed and expectacles allowed.

474
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:50,959
Speaker 4: I think this is a good over bet, so that's

475
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:54,680
Speaker 4: where I'll be looking here. Bjay, anything for you Saints

476
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,159
Speaker 4: and Peacocks.

477
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:56,840
Speaker 1: I agree with you.

478
00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 3: I think this is a good match to chase a

479
00:20:58,280 --> 00:20:59,879
Speaker 3: big price on a big over. So if you want

480
00:20:59,920 --> 00:21:01,919
Speaker 3: to play, I'm going to play over three goals at

481
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:03,520
Speaker 3: plus one thirty. If you want to try to play

482
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 3: three over three and a half goals, I think that

483
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 3: there's still some value on that. I mean, listen, you

484
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:12,119
Speaker 3: could make the argument that Southampton against Tottenham like, oh, well,

485
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,520
Speaker 3: they only allowed to expect the goals off of force,

486
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,840
Speaker 3: their defense should get better, like they're just bad. Okay,

487
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:19,399
Speaker 3: I don't know how else we can describe it. Like

488
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 3: Southampton's defense, they're just very, very bad and they haven't

489
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:25,920
Speaker 3: shown any sign of improvement. Like you said, Michael, they

490
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,640
Speaker 3: were dead last in the Premier League and big scoring

491
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 3: chances allowed last season. But I will say this, offensively

492
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:35,640
Speaker 3: they were six than the Premier League and big scoring

493
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:37,959
Speaker 3: chances created. Now, I know Bros Is not there, but

494
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 3: it still highlights a bigger point that like, yes, when

495
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 3: you press that phrenetically and you can get those type

496
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 3: of turnovers and high turnovers against teams that maybe aren't

497
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 3: that great against pressure, like yeah, you can create some

498
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 3: big scoring chances offensively, and that's exactly what I think

499
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:54,400
Speaker 3: this match has written all over it because Leeds, yes,

500
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 3: they were sixteenth and big scoring chances allowed, and you know,

501
00:21:57,600 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 3: Anthony will tell you there was a month stretch where

502
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 3: they were playing academy players, so you have to factor

503
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 3: that in.

504
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:02,120
Speaker 1: Well.

505
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 3: Under Jesse Marsh they were allowing about one and a

506
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 3: half big scoring chances per match, so the defense did

507
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,359
Speaker 3: not get any sort of better in terms of allowing

508
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,399
Speaker 3: big scoring chances under him. Yeah, the first match was

509
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 3: kind of weird against Wolves, like you look at the

510
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 3: underlying metrics like Leeds, Yeah, they scored two goals and

511
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,439
Speaker 3: they have like one point one expected. They allowed Wolves

512
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,879
Speaker 3: control sixty percent possession. But when you have two teams

513
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,119
Speaker 3: that are going to press at this type of like

514
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 3: prenetic pace, I mean, I mean Leeds had one hundred

515
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,879
Speaker 3: and eighty eight pressures against Wolves, I guess a lot

516
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 3: in terms of you know, the actual team's pressing, so

517
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 3: it's going to be very open. I believe there's gonna

518
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 3: be chances at both ends. I mean when these two

519
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,119
Speaker 3: met under marsh was in charge of Leeds, it was

520
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:44,320
Speaker 3: a one to one draw. There was three point two

521
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,919
Speaker 3: expected goals were created, four big scoring chances. So if

522
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 3: we see a similar type match like that, I have

523
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,199
Speaker 3: no doubt we're going to happen over here. So I

524
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,680
Speaker 3: have a little over three goals projected at three point one,

525
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,440
Speaker 3: So I think we chasing a big price on over

526
00:22:57,480 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 3: three goals of plus one thirty or over three and

527
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:00,880
Speaker 3: a half at a at a big price, I think

528
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 3: is where I'm going in this one.

529
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 4: Yeah good, A good live over game two ten or

530
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 4: fifteen minutes are slow, antony anything.

531
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 2: I am curious the single game x G are we

532
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 2: not does the Anderson goal count? I don't think it does, right,

533
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 2: And so like That's the thing you know with single

534
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 2: game XG is when you have that extreme case where

535
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 2: you know, like a point seven chants that's a can

536
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 2: tap into an empty net doesn't get counted. That like

537
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,879
Speaker 2: we'll throw off your XG stats in these kind of

538
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 2: smallish samples, and so like we can take a step

539
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 2: back on like what happened in the first Leads match,

540
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:35,199
Speaker 2: And I thought it was interesting that Wolves kind of

541
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 2: dominated the possession, but so much of it happened in

542
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 2: their own half. They had more touches in their own

543
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 2: defensive third than any team in the prem more than

544
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 2: Manchester City, so that was really interesting. And they had

545
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,880
Speaker 2: sixty percent of the possession. So it's clear that Leeds

546
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:53,400
Speaker 2: doesn't really need the ball. Marsh doesn't really want the ball,

547
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,680
Speaker 2: but when they do get the ball, they do get

548
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 2: that high turnover. It was very impressive on the second goal,

549
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 2: the how quickly they were able to just break through

550
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:03,960
Speaker 2: lines and get in behind. And I think.

551
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 3: That Bamford is a difference maker for Leeds.

552
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely absolutely, And Aaronson was a difference maker and

553
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,680
Speaker 2: he even winning the ball back in the penalty area

554
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,679
Speaker 2: set up the first goal and he gets on the

555
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 2: end of the second chance after a great fault into Bamford.

556
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,439
Speaker 2: So you know, I thought Leads we were good, to

557
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 2: be honest with you. There was a couple of chances

558
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,880
Speaker 2: where they maybe got let off the hook, but generally

559
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 2: speaking I didn't think Saints were as bad as everybody

560
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 2: else did. Either field tip was fifty to fifty in

561
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 2: that game, which is really interesting against Spurs, and obviously

562
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 2: Spurs are much better in both boxes and that's why

563
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 2: they dominate the match on chances and goals. But Saints

564
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,199
Speaker 2: still have a midfield that can cause some problems for

565
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 2: people like Romeo and Ward Prows is like a pretty

566
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 2: good midfield. They're not a relegation midfield and so I'm

567
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,440
Speaker 2: ultimately passing here, but I'm very interested to watch this match.

568
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 2: I think it could be one of the more interesting

569
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:51,359
Speaker 2: ones of the weekend.

570
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 4: Another ten am kickoff Arsenal BJ's Arsenal minus two ten

571
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 4: hosting Leicester City plus five fifty the draw plus three sixty.

572
00:24:59,320 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 5: We were all wrong.

573
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 4: Arsenal beat Crystal Palace in the Premier League curtain raiser

574
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 4: on Friday afternoon Eastern time. Looked really good. The gunners

575
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 4: said the Palace was fine too, lesser city. On the

576
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 4: other hand, they played a strange one against Brentford where

577
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,359
Speaker 4: they go up to nil and give up the lead

578
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 4: and honestly almost lost it a couple of times, a

579
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 4: couple of good chances for Mim and Tony go left

580
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 4: asking if they go in. We're talking a much different

581
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 4: tone here with Lester the draw plus three sixty here,

582
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:31,639
Speaker 4: I think it's similar to the Spurs conversation where the

583
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,199
Speaker 4: market is just going to be too You could have

584
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 4: closed your eyes and looked at the line and been like,

585
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 4: I know exactly where this number is going to be

586
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:40,119
Speaker 4: and it's just going to be too high on Arsenal,

587
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 4: just judging off of the preseason high, the way they

588
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,120
Speaker 4: looked in week one, the fact that everyone was talking

589
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 4: about how great they looked in the preseason in those

590
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:49,880
Speaker 4: matches too, like it just was going to get too high.

591
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 4: Then you throw in the fact that everybody's down on Leicester.

592
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 4: I think it's warranted to be down on Lester as well.

593
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 4: And then they choke it to nil, lead to Brentford,

594
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 4: more smoke around Wesley Footfana leaving some more smoke around

595
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 4: your Telomen's leaving.

596
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 5: So Leicester they're just in a weird way.

597
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 4: James Madison as well, like they're going to be a

598
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,440
Speaker 4: kind of hurky jerky side I think until the transfer

599
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 4: window closes. That said, I think they do have enough

600
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 4: talent to warrant some interest at five and a half

601
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 4: to one, So that's where I'm looking. Whether better or not,

602
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 4: we'll see, because they are a couple of big underdogs on

603
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 4: the slate that well, that we've already talked about, we'll

604
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:31,120
Speaker 4: continue to talk about that. I like maybe a little more, Anthony,

605
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 4: what about you?

606
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:32,360
Speaker 5: Yeah?

607
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 2: I mean this this got bet up. Arsenal was minus

608
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 2: one eighty now they're at to minus two ten Market

609
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,719
Speaker 2: reacting to Arsenal's big win over the Friday where they

610
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 2: weren't as good as the score line indicated. And then Market,

611
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 2: I guess, you know, reacting to Lester blowing a two

612
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 2: nil lead. Also, all the uncertainty with transfers definitely playing

613
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 2: a role there. You know, the more players keep getting

614
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 2: linked to other teams, the less likely they are to

615
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 2: play for Lester while that saga's ongoing, so that hurts

616
00:26:57,119 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 2: Leicester's potential lineup. I thought, indeed he was good on Saturday.

617
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 2: I thought that was my Sunday rather that was one

618
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 2: of my takeaways. But this attack had nothing. I mean,

619
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 2: they couldn't generate squat against Brentford despite having a lot

620
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 2: of the ball. Brentford kind of just gave them the

621
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:13,679
Speaker 2: ball and they didn't really do much with it. So

622
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 2: that's a that's definitely a concern. They had fifteen touches

623
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,560
Speaker 2: in the attacking penalty area. That is the fewest in

624
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:22,880
Speaker 2: the league. They're among the fewest in the league justpite

625
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 2: getting you know, the bees at home. But again, Arsenal

626
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 2: like didn't dominate that match against Paalace. I know that,

627
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:31,199
Speaker 2: Like the score line said that, but like we're like

628
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 2: an essay one on one or like a header that

629
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 2: you know was hit right at Ramsdale. From a very

630
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 2: different conversation about how that game went, expected threat expected

631
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 2: goals were very even. Palace missed their chances. Arsenal took

632
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 2: one of theirs good set piece routine, you know, very creative,

633
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 2: you know, good for Arteta and Arsenal to get on

634
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 2: the board and win. But they do the thing where

635
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 2: they look so good for the first twenty minutes, but

636
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 2: the last hour I thought Palace were clearly the better

637
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 2: team and they did it a lot last year too.

638
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 2: It's it's not a new phenomenon that our just scores

639
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:02,640
Speaker 2: an early goal and takes their foot off the gas.

640
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 2: I mean this fixture last year. This was the one

641
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 2: at Leicester. Arsenal scored early and then got pummeled for

642
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 2: an hour and Ramsdale made some great saves but they

643
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 2: got dominated on a next gam. We were like, oh,

644
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 2: Arsenal was lucky, and you could say, okay, yes, but

645
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 2: they were winning. But you know how how you know

646
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:19,400
Speaker 2: you're you're supposed to play like a top five team.

647
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 2: You should be looking to get multiple goals, not sitting

648
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 2: on a one tozer lead on the road at Palace.

649
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 2: So I am ultimately passing here, but I will be

650
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:29,440
Speaker 2: looking to play Lester live if they go down a goal.

651
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 2: I think that's that's one good way to play this.

652
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 2: The number will still be inflated on Arsenal. After that

653
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 2: you may get a plus. You'll probably get a good

654
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:37,119
Speaker 2: plus one and a half at that point, whereas you

655
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 2: know pregame you're looking at plus one and maybe a quarter.

656
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 2: I think it's scary though. Leicester fifty three passes into

657
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:45,960
Speaker 2: the final third, just seven into the penalty area, so

658
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 2: there's clearly something missing there, and that's why the Foxes

659
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 2: had less than zero point eight expected goals in their

660
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 2: first game.

661
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 4: BJ I know you give me sitting this one out,

662
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 4: probably from a Beanning perspective, But quick, where you're done?

663
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 1: Which isn't one? Two?

664
00:28:58,040 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, Arsenal is going to be over val

665
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 3: If this is what's gonna happen all year, it's gonna

666
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 3: suck as an Arsenal fan because I'm gonna have to

667
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:04,239
Speaker 3: end up being against him.

668
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna bet this one.

669
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 3: Can we talk about where Brent Rodgers did and how

670
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 3: it just made no sense they were up to one

671
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 3: in the seventy third minute, he brings off Dewsbury Hall

672
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 3: and brings on pat with a two to one lead.

673
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 1: So what is Thomas Frank do?

674
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 3: He says, okay, you're gonna do that, all right, Well,

675
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 3: I'm gonna bring on a few attackers. And what did

676
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 3: Brentford do? They just went right up the middle and

677
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 3: they took it right to them. And you know, like

678
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 3: you said, Michael, we'rren't I even Tony like Sitter essentially

679
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 3: away from Brentford maybe winning this three one. Obviously things

680
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 3: changed for three to two and obviously things change.

681
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 2: They also did score and they were off side in

682
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 2: like eighty five minutes, right.

683
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 3: And so it was just puzzling, like and you know

684
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 3: you see from the x G chart from there, Well,

685
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 3: Brentford as soon as Dewsbury Hall came off and Doctor

686
00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 3: came on, well, Brentford just started controlling the match when

687
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 3: Lester for a large stretch of the match, We're really

688
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 3: I thought, controlling the midfield. Tillman's like you already mentioned

689
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 3: Anthony indeed were really good and even.

690
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 1: Duwsberry Hall was good. He got a gold. So yeah,

691
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 1: Lester is.

692
00:29:57,320 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 3: Going to be a very very interesting case because I

693
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 3: think their defense progressively has gotten better with fasts.

694
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 2: No, we're getting there. I'm telling you. There was like

695
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 2: one point two extra created in that whole game.

696
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 1: I know, it's crazy, and.

697
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 2: Indeed he makes them better if he's healthy, Like.

698
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, but then this is it's like you know, I mean,

699
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 3: Teeloman still go out there and he'll have his uh,

700
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 3: you know, his Arsenal debut and the Emirates for you know,

701
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 3: his first Arsenal match of the season, and then they'll

702
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 3: know this match will probably buy him, and then he

703
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 3: goes and then does Madison go to Newcastle? Does Fulfuanna

704
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 3: go to Chelsea? And then what does Lester become?

705
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 2: Where's the money where?

706
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 1: I I don't know, Like I don't know.

707
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 4: It's been a strange, strange season, strange twenty two days.

708
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 2: By the way, like you sell these players, buy other

709
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 2: players and then they totally reevaluate what we think about

710
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 2: this team. But right now I don't know tracked.

711
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 3: So they have to they have to do something now,

712
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 3: like they can't just wait or else. He leaves for

713
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 3: free to Arsenal next year. So you want to get

714
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 3: thirty five mil?

715
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 1: Get it now?

716
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 4: I think they will Another ten am kickoff Wolverhampton plus

717
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 4: one thirty five at the Molnu. They're at home hosting

718
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 4: Fullham plus two to fifteen off of a riveting to

719
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 4: two draw against Liverpool. I thought they were good enough

720
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 4: to win that one. The draws plus two thirty I

721
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 4: think if you asked a lot of people to do

722
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 4: like a knee jerk reaction to week one, a lot

723
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 4: of them would flip flop. These two teams and they're

724
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 4: what their preseason predictions were and what they are after

725
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 4: week one, which is, you know, maybe Fulham in nineteen eighteen,

726
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 4: seventeen's whatever, and then they flipped Wolves into there because

727
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 4: there just seems to be a lot of people, even

728
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 4: at the end of last year, because Wolves were so

729
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 4: bad in the second half, and then into the off

730
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,400
Speaker 4: season and then into this new season picking them as

731
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 4: a trendy relegation pick.

732
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 5: So that's what I'm thinking now.

733
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,480
Speaker 4: But I want to say one thing, and this was

734
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 4: a big joke last year with Wolves on this podcast,

735
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 4: because I assumed that Bruno Lage, with a ton of

736
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 4: you know, kind of tricky, talented attacking players, would would

737
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 4: play a much more open style.

738
00:31:58,760 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 2: He didn't.

739
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 4: He still played for you at the back. Them selling

740
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 4: Connor Cody. They played two in the back. They played

741
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 4: the four to four to two against Leeds, and they

742
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 4: sell Connor Cody because he can't play.

743
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 5: They eat.

744
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 4: Lodge doesn't like the way Connor Cody plays in a

745
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 4: four to four two. I think we could see Wolves

746
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 4: open things up here and Wolves overs are really gonna

747
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 4: are gonna be a banker like they were at the

748
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 4: end of last season last year. And this Folham team,

749
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 4: Marco Silva, I guess did he tip his hand that

750
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 4: they're just gonna be pedal to the metal, hunting packs

751
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 4: against no matter who the opponent is. That's what they

752
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 4: did against Liverpool. Very brave, impressive performance. So I liked

753
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 4: over two and a half, you're getting plus money plus

754
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 4: one of eight Fulham and Wolves.

755
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 5: Anthony, what do you like?

756
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 2: You know, if you were to just take like a

757
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 2: knee jerk reaction and I like kind of what you said, right,

758
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 2: you would flip off the two teams. But before the

759
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 2: season I had Fulham better than Wolves. I still think

760
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 2: they're better than Wolves. I still think you know that

761
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 2: Fulham is underrated. Paulina third most tackles in the BREM

762
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 2: this weekend and mad at the match for me against Liverpool.

763
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 5: I thought him him at Pereier, I mean they dominated

764
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 5: the midfield.

765
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, Pereier was good and I won't know if I

766
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 2: go dominated, but they they, I mean did with relative

767
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 2: expected to dominating, right right, That's what I'm saying Liverpool.

768
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 2: They kept Liverpool from dominating, right.

769
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 1: Uh.

770
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 2: And I thought that was really impressive. I thought Anthony

771
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 2: Robinson was awesome. I tweeted like twenty three minutes in

772
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 2: like he's the best fullback on the on the pitch

773
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 2: right now. Uh? And you know, it was obviously a

774
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 2: little bit of a joke, but I thought he played

775
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 2: better than Trent and Robertson, and I thought he got

776
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 2: the better of Solid for large parts of that match.

777
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 2: They did ultimately break it open a little bit, you know,

778
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 2: later on with Neutniaz coming on. But Fulham's defensive strength

779
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 2: in the midfield, their ability to play without the ball

780
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 2: was incredibly impressive. And now I get them as an

781
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 2: underdog to a Wolves team that was a terrible favorite

782
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 2: last year. And we talked about this too. They had

783
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 2: the tie with Norwich, they lost to Norwich, or they

784
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 2: had two ties with Norwich, I believe, I know they

785
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:54,480
Speaker 2: at least won at the end of the year. They

786
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 2: lost to excuse mean, they tied Brighton. A couple of

787
00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 2: times when they were favored, they struggled to They lost

788
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 2: to Burnley.

789
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 1: Right yep, lost to Burnley and drew them.

790
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:08,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, they so all of these stories. They beat everyten twice.

791
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 2: They well, of course, of course, and they had a

792
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 2: couple of good wins. Don't get me wrong, but this

793
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 2: Wolves team really struggled against those bottom half teams that

794
00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 2: they were expected to beat where they were favored, and

795
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 2: so I'm going to take Fulham plus quarter of a

796
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 2: goal here. I think they're the better team. You factor

797
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 2: in home field, I make Wolves just a little bit

798
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 2: better than a toss up, and with that being said,

799
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 2: I'm going to take Fulham. I don't think it's an

800
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 2: overreaction because in my opinion, coming into the season, I

801
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 2: thought Fulham was better and I still think they are now.

802
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:37,799
Speaker 4: Bja anything on this one before we move on to

803
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 4: the last ten am kickoff, I.

804
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 3: Agree with Anthony that I do have you know Fulham

805
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:44,320
Speaker 3: pretty even with Wolves.

806
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:45,960
Speaker 1: I think the market has kind of reacted to that.

807
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 1: I think Wolves at plus one thirty five is a

808
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 1: is a fair line.

809
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 3: What I'm interested to see is if Fulham is going

810
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 3: to play a mid table club or a bottom table

811
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 3: club like Wolves. Are they going to be able to

812
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 3: control possession? Are they going to be able to do

813
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 3: what they did to a lot of teams in the Championship,

814
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:04,879
Speaker 3: and that's basically just run them over. I don't know.

815
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 3: I mean the first match against Liverpool, we can I

816
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 3: can't really take much away from that because you know

817
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 3: it is Liverpool. But for me, I think I just

818
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,319
Speaker 3: need to see Fulham one more time. I mean, who's

819
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:18,480
Speaker 3: going to control possession in this match? And does it

820
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:20,880
Speaker 3: really matter who controls possession? Is Wolve's going to control

821
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,840
Speaker 3: sixty percent like they did against Leeds or is Fulham

822
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 3: going to control a large share of the possession? And

823
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,279
Speaker 3: Wolves turns back into what they were last year, which

824
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 3: is very condensed defensively. Your point about Connor Cody, Well,

825
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 3: they sign Nathaniel Collins, who's better to play a four

826
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 3: to four two than a Burnley center back. So yeah,

827
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 3: for me, this is a pass If anything, I would

828
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 3: look at both teams. To score no and minus one

829
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:42,759
Speaker 3: on five I think is a little cheap. But for me,

830
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:45,920
Speaker 3: I want to see Fulham one more time against a

831
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:49,840
Speaker 3: mid table club and see how they play under Marco Silva.

832
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:50,919
Speaker 5: I think that's fair.

833
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:53,240
Speaker 4: And do you know who would be really useful against

834
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 4: Alexander Mitrovich in the middle of the box on Saturday,

835
00:35:57,920 --> 00:35:59,919
Speaker 4: Connor Cody Anthony there.

836
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 2: I want to get this right. So they tied Norwich twice,

837
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 2: lost to Burnley, tied Burnley four games against teams who

838
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 2: you know were relegated from the league to you know,

839
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:10,920
Speaker 2: if you think Fulham is that bad, they really struggled

840
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:13,640
Speaker 2: in those kind of games, tied Brighton and then lost

841
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 2: to Brighton when they were favorite at home they lost

842
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 2: a Newcastle so and then they tied Newcastle when Newcastle

843
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 2: was bad. So there's a lot of questionable stuff in

844
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 2: this Wolves is a favorite angle.

845
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:31,760
Speaker 4: The last ten am kickoff is Brighton hosting Newcastle. Seagulls

846
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 4: plus one forty at home. Newcastle two to one underdogs

847
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 4: on the road to drop us to twenty five. Tip

848
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 4: of the cap to our Seagulls. Man watch one Underdogs

849
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:44,840
Speaker 4: cashing the underdog parlay if you bet them all as

850
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:48,959
Speaker 4: separate legs comes ahead just because of Brighton at five

851
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:49,399
Speaker 4: to one.

852
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,240
Speaker 2: Good start for Leaboff in this year's standings.

853
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, good start, but he had an underdog. I had

854
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 4: the best bet.

855
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:57,239
Speaker 5: It was we were all the best.

856
00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 4: Of the.

857
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:00,320
Speaker 5: Point is we were all over Brighton.

858
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 4: They came through no matter how you had them, unless

859
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 4: you went unaltered it line minus one and a half

860
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 4: like a crazy person.

861
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 2: I know somebody who did the Seagulls.

862
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:12,880
Speaker 5: I think. I think what we saw was like just

863
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 5: almost like a like.

864
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:18,759
Speaker 4: A zombie team being Manchester United walking into bright like

865
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:20,280
Speaker 4: a buzzsaw on Saturday.

866
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 5: Like that was in a weird way, like.

867
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 4: As we just said, Southampton was the perfect opponent for

868
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 4: Tottenham and week one Brighton were kind of the worst

869
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:31,960
Speaker 4: opponent for Manchester United, I think in the new coach's

870
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 4: debut in week one, like as from a bettering perspective,

871
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 4: like I would have been more interested in Manchester United

872
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 4: against Liverpool or City than Brighton.

873
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 5: So I do wonder how they're going to fair.

874
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:44,240
Speaker 2: Against like their you would have gotten a good number.

875
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 1: No, we wouldn't.

876
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:48,680
Speaker 4: But I'm just saying, but by.

877
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 2: The ways, yeah United plays Liverpool in two weeks.

878
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, I know we'll get to that.

879
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:52,320
Speaker 1: There.

880
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 4: The point stands that Brighton just they punch up so

881
00:37:56,719 --> 00:38:00,040
Speaker 4: well against like a team and in their cohort, and

882
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 4: they're appear like Newcastle. I think it becomes a little

883
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:05,440
Speaker 4: bit dicey. I think it's a easy game to pass on.

884
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:07,760
Speaker 4: I like a lot on this board, as you could tell,

885
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:10,840
Speaker 4: and this one I'm gonna spec and just kind of

886
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 4: download information and see how Brighton stacks up against the

887
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 4: team adjacent to them in the market.

888
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:17,400
Speaker 5: DJ, what do you have?

889
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:19,280
Speaker 1: I think it's a very interesting match.

890
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 3: Like then, I feel the same way about this how

891
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 3: I feel about you know, Southampton and Leeds where I

892
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 3: think that one's going to be a chaotic. I'm really

893
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 3: interested to see who is able to control possession in

894
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 3: this match because as we talk about Brighton's incredible controlling possession,

895
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:35,480
Speaker 3: you know they were fourth in the Premi League last year. Well,

896
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:38,480
Speaker 3: Newcastle completely dominated Noddingham Forest. I mean, let's be honest,

897
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:41,880
Speaker 3: they controlled over sixty percent possession. Forrest didn't look threatening

898
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 3: at all going forward. As we saw Newcastle last season,

899
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:49,479
Speaker 3: like they improved a lot defensively. You know this match

900
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,480
Speaker 3: they went up to nothing on Brighton inside fifteen minutes

901
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 3: and then they just sat off and tried to see

902
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 3: the game out. Defensively, Brighton end up holding close to

903
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 3: seventy percent possession. But the thing about I struggle with

904
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 3: with Newcastle and I Brighton projective plus one four to three.

905
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 3: So I don't really see much value on vetting the

906
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:10,800
Speaker 3: Seagulls here is that Newcastle, even from the January transfer

907
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:13,839
Speaker 3: window on, they were the worst team in the Premier

908
00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 3: League got playing through pressure, per offensive pass, per defensive action,

909
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 3: and you're facing the Brighton team that was a top

910
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 3: six pressing team last season.

911
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 1: So there are signs.

912
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 3: That say like Hey, maybe Newcastle isn't as good as

913
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:29,800
Speaker 3: they were against Nottingham Forest. Running into Brighton team that

914
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:31,640
Speaker 3: can control possession, that can press you and that can

915
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 3: also play through pressure might not be that great of

916
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:37,359
Speaker 3: a matchup for them. But with that being said, I mean,

917
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,800
Speaker 3: let's be honest, Newcastle was good defensively since the January

918
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,360
Speaker 3: transfer on. I mean they were only allowed one point

919
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 3: twenty seven xally per match. That was way better than

920
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 3: when they were, you know, a relegation favorite. And Brighton.

921
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 3: I love Brighton, but they just weren't good offensively last year.

922
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 3: I mean they were thirteenth to non fenally expected goals

923
00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:55,879
Speaker 3: and they were seventeen to big scoring chances. Like, it's

924
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 3: not the Brighton team of two years ago that just

925
00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 3: created a chance after chance, you know. I mean, I'll

926
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:03,879
Speaker 3: be honest. I mean, Newcastle's defense looks a lot better

927
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 3: than United right now, even you know, the talent level

928
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:09,200
Speaker 3: might not be there. So I'm playing both teams to

929
00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 3: score no At minus one oh five, I think you're

930
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 3: kind of sensing a theme for me this week, But

931
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 3: I mean the under two and a half goals is

932
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 3: a little pricey at minus one thirty five. I have

933
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 3: Bolt team to score No. At minus one thirty three.

934
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 3: I think this has the potential for a Newcastle. Hey,

935
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 3: let's sit in and let's look the counter with Alan

936
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 3: Say Maximin and Callum Wilson and all these guys. But

937
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:32,320
Speaker 3: I mean Caceto in the midfield for Brighton looked against United.

938
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:37,320
Speaker 3: They move and then they just basically get another midfielder

939
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 3: that can press and play just as well as presume

940
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,400
Speaker 3: it did. So it just goes an overall shows that

941
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 3: Graham Potter system is really, really, really good. It is

942
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,760
Speaker 3: not reliance on the players that are in that system.

943
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:50,840
Speaker 3: So for me, I'm playing Bolt Team to score No.

944
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:51,919
Speaker 3: At minus one oh five.

945
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:54,320
Speaker 4: All right, let's get to United twelve thirty pm kickoff

946
00:40:54,480 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 4: on Saturday in at Brentford Community Stadium, Brentford plus two

947
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 4: eighty United even money the draws plus two forty five.

948
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:06,799
Speaker 4: There's gonna come a time where we're gonna buy low

949
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:09,319
Speaker 4: on Manchester United, and it's gonna be a week from

950
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 4: Monday against Liverpool.

951
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:15,759
Speaker 5: Right, this one, this one, this one, these are this is.

952
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 1: A situation you dream about, Michael.

953
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 4: The hilarious thing about the way the schedule set up

954
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:23,080
Speaker 4: is is we talked about how Brighton was like a

955
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 4: nightmare match Week one opponent for Manchester United.

956
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 5: Brentford is just they're poor Man's Brighton.

957
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 4: Like this is like they're a poor man's Brighton, Like

958
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 4: they're well coached, well drilled side. They're not as good

959
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:41,719
Speaker 4: as That's what they're not gonna Saying poor Man's subject

960
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:44,919
Speaker 4: means that they's just a similar version that isn't as good.

961
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 4: They're at home where they played really well last season.

962
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 4: They have goals in their side through guys like Tony Wait.

963
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:52,720
Speaker 4: I mean, how about the Silva coming back after eighteen

964
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:55,719
Speaker 4: months out scoring. It's just really hard not to look

965
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:58,200
Speaker 4: at Brentford here. So that's where I'm going, and I

966
00:41:58,239 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 4: mean we'll get to it. We'll get to we'll get

967
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 4: to bet On United in a few days from now,

968
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 4: but for here, it's another fade. Let the chaos rain

969
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:10,320
Speaker 4: down on Eric ten hog bj the Bees.

970
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:13,160
Speaker 3: I mean, how can you not play Brentford here?

971
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 1: They?

972
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:15,440
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, you can make the argument they weren't

973
00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:16,840
Speaker 3: like that great against Leicester.

974
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:18,239
Speaker 1: You know, they they showed a lot.

975
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:20,120
Speaker 3: You know, they were good for maybe the final twenty

976
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 3: five minutes, for the beginning of it, you know, lesser

977
00:42:22,640 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 3: controlled the midfield, which could say the same about United.

978
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:29,680
Speaker 3: But I mean this is the famous h Thomas Frank

979
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:34,320
Speaker 3: we smashed them game where Brentford just completely dominated United

980
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:36,839
Speaker 3: in the first half and then United created a couple

981
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 3: of big chances in the second half, ended up winning three

982
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 3: to one, but Brentford won on XG two point two

983
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 3: to two goals. So we've seen United now for basically

984
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 3: the last month under Ragnik and then now the first

985
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:52,799
Speaker 3: match against Brighton. They continue to show that they are

986
00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:56,440
Speaker 3: a team that is not interested in really playing as

987
00:42:56,440 --> 00:42:59,239
Speaker 3: a team, or pressing as a team, or having at

988
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 3: least some type of togetherness. It's not there at all.

989
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:05,880
Speaker 3: And I've i said at last Pod but ten Hawks

990
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 3: system at ias is so reliant on having that central

991
00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 3: midfielder like a graven Burke, who can come in, who

992
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:14,760
Speaker 3: can play well when teams press them, who can distribute

993
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:18,320
Speaker 3: the ball and get it essentially moving forward. United doesn't

994
00:43:18,360 --> 00:43:20,200
Speaker 3: have that with Fred or Scott mctomany.

995
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 1: They're not. They really did struggle playing.

996
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:24,960
Speaker 3: I mean Brighton put up thirty three percent pressure success

997
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 3: rate against them, that's better than what their average was

998
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:29,759
Speaker 3: last season. Then they were top three in that category.

999
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:33,320
Speaker 3: United is not that great on set piece or they were.

1000
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:36,720
Speaker 3: They overperformed drastically on set pieces last year. They allowed

1001
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:40,759
Speaker 3: six goals off about thirteen expected Brentford top five set

1002
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 3: piece team in terms of expected goals. And Brentford was

1003
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:45,400
Speaker 3: a decent pressing team. I mean they were eighth and

1004
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 3: passes per defensive action. They were six in high turnovers,

1005
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:50,719
Speaker 3: third in ball recoveries. So if a good pressing team

1006
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:53,360
Speaker 3: like Brighton was able to do that to Manchester United

1007
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 3: away from home, there's no reason why Brentford can't do

1008
00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:59,480
Speaker 3: exactly the same at home at the Brentford Community Stadium,

1009
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 3: where as we said many times, they were way better

1010
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 3: than they were on the road. So I'll be honest,

1011
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:07,680
Speaker 3: I have I have Brentford projected as a slight favorite

1012
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 3: in this match because you know, based on expect a

1013
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 3: gold of freshwal last year, there wasn't much to separate

1014
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:15,279
Speaker 3: these two teams. United was plus point three, Brentford was

1015
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:17,840
Speaker 3: minus one point three. There's just not that much of

1016
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:20,600
Speaker 3: a gap. So how can you get to United even

1017
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 3: money favorites on the road against Brentford.

1018
00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 1: It's crazy.

1019
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 3: I don't I don't understand that this team has shown

1020
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,839
Speaker 3: no life or no type of togetherness. I know I've

1021
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 3: already mentioned it, but really any type of cohesiveness to

1022
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:33,279
Speaker 3: steer this thing.

1023
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:33,799
Speaker 1: In the right way.

1024
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:37,440
Speaker 5: And hey, you know what or Radio.

1025
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 1: Is gonna is going to change that? Like they are not.

1026
00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 3: I mean we I won't go too long in this,

1027
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:45,839
Speaker 3: but the Arnautovich that I I tweeted it, that's rock

1028
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:48,720
Speaker 3: bottom for you died like trying to sign a thirty

1029
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 3: three year old striker from Bologna who we've I was

1030
00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:54,200
Speaker 3: just like, this is what the club has become because

1031
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 3: nobody really wants to come here, so you have to

1032
00:44:56,680 --> 00:44:57,480
Speaker 3: play Brentford here.

1033
00:44:57,560 --> 00:44:59,840
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, Like there's no reason why United should be

1034
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 1: any the money favorite.

1035
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:03,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I didn't think Brentford was that good. You hat

1036
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:06,880
Speaker 2: pretty thought they were pretty mediocre. On Sunday Lester, you know,

1037
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 2: and and and I said this, I think, you know,

1038
00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 2: Brentford regression is coming. But again in the market just

1039
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:18,439
Speaker 2: keeps showing no love. And they happen to get two

1040
00:45:18,480 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 2: teams who I think are overvalued right now with Lester

1041
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:23,399
Speaker 2: and then United. So I'm going to bet them again.

1042
00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 2: Take the Bees plus a half and I'm gonna say, well,

1043
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 2: I think Brentford's playing that well and you know, hopefully

1044
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:31,800
Speaker 2: they you know, don't play that well and get a result.

1045
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 4: Here we were talking about week one overreactions and there's

1046
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:36,759
Speaker 4: also like the other sentiment in the market, which is

1047
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:39,319
Speaker 4: there's no white Manchester United could start a season zero

1048
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 4: to two against Brighton and Brentford and guess what there is?

1049
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:43,960
Speaker 5: So yeah, all three.

1050
00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:46,760
Speaker 2: They're gonna start over. I meant Liverpool's minus one forty

1051
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:48,359
Speaker 2: at the Theater of Dream.

1052
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 5: But we will be on United. We'll talk about it.

1053
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 5: One of those teams will we started one of those teams.

1054
00:45:53,560 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 4: One of those teams will be start to go with

1055
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 4: three and we'll talk about that team in a little bit.

1056
00:45:57,360 --> 00:46:00,760
Speaker 4: Let's talk about Sunday mornings, nine am kickoff Ottingham Forest

1057
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:04,279
Speaker 4: plus three ten hosting west Ham. Mightus won fifteen. Both

1058
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:07,879
Speaker 4: these teams lost forced to Newcastle at Newcastle, west Ham

1059
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:11,040
Speaker 4: hosting early hollins Man City. The draw is plus two

1060
00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:13,760
Speaker 4: sixty five. I'm not going to change my tune about Forest.

1061
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:15,680
Speaker 4: I think that they're going to I think that they're

1062
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:17,759
Speaker 4: better than what people will.

1063
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:19,080
Speaker 5: Expect out of them.

1064
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:22,920
Speaker 4: They looked at they looked bad against Newcastle. I will say,

1065
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:25,960
Speaker 4: but still odds on favorite for west Ham on the

1066
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:29,680
Speaker 4: road is maybe a little bit too much here. So

1067
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:31,880
Speaker 4: I've got some interest in Forrest as a as an

1068
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:35,840
Speaker 4: underdog at home their first Premier League game in two decades.

1069
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:39,960
Speaker 4: That's where I'll be looking the trees, the tricky trees, Anthony,

1070
00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 4: you just were a lot.

1071
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:43,439
Speaker 5: I think you like them.

1072
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 2: No, I like my number, says I have. I lean

1073
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:48,359
Speaker 2: that way, but I think I'm I think we're just

1074
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:50,480
Speaker 2: not sure where the bottom is on this team. Look,

1075
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:53,480
Speaker 2: who's the most dominant team the first weekend? Newcastle wasn't

1076
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 2: even closed fifty nine touches in the penalty area. Either

1077
00:46:57,080 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 2: we're really wrong on Newcastle and they are like a

1078
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:01,880
Speaker 2: top five sixteen this league, or Forest is just aupper

1079
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:04,279
Speaker 2: mid table championship team who's playing in the Premier League now,

1080
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 2: or it's just one game they had.

1081
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 1: We have Huddersfield again.

1082
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 2: They have ten attacking touches in the penalty area, fewest

1083
00:47:12,080 --> 00:47:15,160
Speaker 2: of anybody. No Taiwo of course, but Lingard didn't really

1084
00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:18,320
Speaker 2: get get into the action. Where is the bottom? I

1085
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:20,799
Speaker 2: mean Newcastle had thirty two passes into the final third,

1086
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:23,480
Speaker 2: then they had twenty four into the penalty area. That's

1087
00:47:23,520 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 2: what they there isn't That's equivalent of three of us

1088
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 2: playing defensive midfield against Premier league players. They just walked

1089
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:31,440
Speaker 2: right into the box, got all the shots they wanted.

1090
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:34,359
Speaker 2: Where's the bottom on Forest? Like the market showed them

1091
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:36,960
Speaker 2: a ton of love in the preseason. They went from

1092
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 2: level with Bournemouth to damn near above Fulham and some markets.

1093
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 2: I'm very concerned in my power rating on Forrest is

1094
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:46,880
Speaker 2: too high, so I'm passing and OK game. And I

1095
00:47:46,880 --> 00:47:49,400
Speaker 2: also see like that that is literally what I just

1096
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 2: said is the definition of an overreaction to one game.

1097
00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:54,840
Speaker 2: But what if the market overreacted to their signings and

1098
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:57,279
Speaker 2: they are just really really bad, well because they think

1099
00:47:57,280 --> 00:47:59,319
Speaker 2: there's much more likely than the fact that we're wrong

1100
00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:02,000
Speaker 2: about one game on the road. West Ham doesn't really

1101
00:48:02,040 --> 00:48:05,160
Speaker 2: have ball progression kind of stuff to dominate this. But

1102
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 2: I think they're pretty overrated too, So.

1103
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:11,239
Speaker 4: Passive beja, you're gonna you're gonna plug your nose here

1104
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:12,400
Speaker 4: and jump in with me, right.

1105
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:13,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, of course.

1106
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:17,279
Speaker 3: So you know these are situations, that's right there, Yeah,

1107
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:19,799
Speaker 3: these are situations as a better where I and I

1108
00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:21,759
Speaker 3: get it, like I can't really sit here and say

1109
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:24,160
Speaker 3: anything positive about what not Eam Forced did in week one.

1110
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 3: They were really really bad, echoing everything Anthony's already said.

1111
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:30,440
Speaker 3: But west Ham did open at plus one twenty before

1112
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:32,359
Speaker 3: the Newcastle match, and if you look on the action

1113
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:34,280
Speaker 3: to work gap we have, it's obviously this beautiful feature

1114
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:36,280
Speaker 3: where you can see a graph of how the odds changed.

1115
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:39,840
Speaker 3: There is just a straight line up on Saturday morning

1116
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:42,880
Speaker 3: from essentially west Ham plus one twenty. Now they're getting

1117
00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 3: minus one fifteen and minus one twenty in some markets,

1118
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:50,160
Speaker 3: which yes, I think that's quite a drastic overreaction and

1119
00:48:50,200 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 3: I understand it's Manchester City, but west Ham did not

1120
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:56,320
Speaker 3: look good at all, like they got completely dominated by City.

1121
00:48:56,440 --> 00:48:59,799
Speaker 3: So there's not much I could really take away and say, yeah,

1122
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 3: like not Enforced with bad, but did west Ham really

1123
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 3: look any good? I mean, they drew City too too

1124
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:07,280
Speaker 3: at the end of last year and then they looked

1125
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:10,840
Speaker 3: that bad against them on opening weekend. And you know,

1126
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:13,000
Speaker 3: I know Anthony mentioned this a lot last year, but

1127
00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:16,920
Speaker 3: west Ham they struggle basically trying to break down low blocks,

1128
00:49:16,920 --> 00:49:19,839
Speaker 3: which is what Nottingham Forest is. They're a heavy counter

1129
00:49:19,880 --> 00:49:22,560
Speaker 3: attacking team that's gonna sit in defensively. That's just how

1130
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 3: Steve Cooper's gonna have them set up against Roy Hodgson's

1131
00:49:25,160 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 3: Watford last year. Point eight x g against Newcastle's defense

1132
00:49:28,560 --> 00:49:31,560
Speaker 3: after the transfer, Windo point seven x g against Brentford

1133
00:49:31,560 --> 00:49:35,480
Speaker 3: point three, Sean Ditchis Burnley point six, Wolves point five

1134
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:38,280
Speaker 3: x g. So it echoes a larger point that west

1135
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:40,720
Speaker 3: Ham is is good when you know they're playing teams

1136
00:49:40,719 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 3: that are open, like a Leeds or a Southampton, but

1137
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 3: when they have to break down low blocks, that's concerning.

1138
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 3: And also west Ham's in a center back injury crisis again.

1139
00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:51,400
Speaker 3: A gourd Is is out for the least the beginning

1140
00:49:51,400 --> 00:49:54,799
Speaker 3: of the season. O'banna is doubtful. Now they just sold

1141
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:57,759
Speaker 3: Diop to Fulham, so now they're gonna roll with Craig

1142
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:00,239
Speaker 3: Dauston and Kurt Zuma yet again like they did for

1143
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:02,160
Speaker 3: a large stretch of last season. And when those two

1144
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:04,759
Speaker 3: guys were in the lineup, west Ham was allowing one

1145
00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:07,920
Speaker 3: point four eight xtal for ninety minutes. So yeah, I'm

1146
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 3: gonna take Nottingham Forest.

1147
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:10,560
Speaker 1: It's not gonna be pretty.

1148
00:50:10,680 --> 00:50:12,600
Speaker 3: Plus half a goal you can get into even money

1149
00:50:12,600 --> 00:50:14,360
Speaker 3: in some books. Right now, I think that's a pretty

1150
00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:17,600
Speaker 3: decent price. This is an overreaction to west Ham and

1151
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:19,879
Speaker 3: I think, honestly, as we get closer to this match,

1152
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 3: I think we'll see a correction back and I think

1153
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:24,359
Speaker 3: we will see a little bit of Nottingham Forest money

1154
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 3: come in the market.

1155
00:50:25,160 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 2: You know, my number is west Ham plus one twenty, so.

1156
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:30,200
Speaker 1: I'm west Ham plus one five.

1157
00:50:30,320 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, we'll see.

1158
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:33,760
Speaker 5: We'll see you. We'll see you on Nottingham Forest, Anthony.

1159
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:34,960
Speaker 5: And by the way, you know who.

1160
00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:36,680
Speaker 2: Look, if I bet this match, it will be betting

1161
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:38,759
Speaker 2: on Forest. If it gets any further, I may have

1162
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:41,720
Speaker 2: to just bite the bullet. But we're recording this on Tuesday,

1163
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:43,480
Speaker 2: little earlier than usual. I've got a few days to

1164
00:50:43,480 --> 00:50:45,839
Speaker 2: make my decision. I want to actually watch the Forest match.

1165
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:47,239
Speaker 2: I haven't gotten a chance to do that yet because

1166
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:50,640
Speaker 2: the Saturday ten ams gets so congested I can't watch

1167
00:50:50,680 --> 00:50:52,319
Speaker 2: all them at once, so I have to go back

1168
00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 2: and look at that game.

1169
00:50:53,640 --> 00:50:55,839
Speaker 4: Yeah, but you guys know who west Ham could really

1170
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:59,320
Speaker 4: use in the middle of that defense right now, Connor Cody.

1171
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:01,640
Speaker 5: But too bad Everdence got them.

1172
00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:05,879
Speaker 4: Let's talk about Connor Cody's boyhood club Liverpool minus five

1173
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:09,080
Speaker 4: hundred on Monday Night Football, the return of Monday Night Football,

1174
00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 4: three pm kickoff Eastern Time. They're hosting their bogie side,

1175
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:16,799
Speaker 4: Crystal Palace Chris Stanball forever Man Palace. Fourteen to one

1176
00:51:17,080 --> 00:51:18,839
Speaker 4: on the money line, the dross plus five fifty. This

1177
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 4: is such an easy one. It's Palace all day at

1178
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:26,239
Speaker 4: this price. Fourteen to one on the money line. I

1179
00:51:26,239 --> 00:51:27,759
Speaker 4: don't think they should be fourteen to one on the

1180
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:29,640
Speaker 4: money line against anyone in the Premier League.

1181
00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 5: They're a good team in the world. Yeah, they're a

1182
00:51:32,160 --> 00:51:32,680
Speaker 5: good team.

1183
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:33,520
Speaker 2: Like the same thing.

1184
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:37,040
Speaker 4: This is a great, strong, like eighth best team in

1185
00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:39,719
Speaker 4: the Premier League. And they looked at against Arsenal. I

1186
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 4: know they lost, but they didn't look like they would

1187
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 4: run off the pitch against Arsenal, who could be the

1188
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 4: fourth or fifth best team in their Premier League. They

1189
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:50,799
Speaker 4: hung with them. Like Anthony said, one set piece goes

1190
00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:53,760
Speaker 4: against them. They kind of kicked it into gear around

1191
00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:58,360
Speaker 4: right after halftime. They have attacking threat and the midfield.

1192
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:01,719
Speaker 4: It's a toss up point with with with Liverpool. If

1193
00:52:01,719 --> 00:52:03,880
Speaker 4: who's gonna like own the midfield. I know they're at home,

1194
00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 4: but Thiago's gone, you're gonna throw Harvey Elliott and like

1195
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:10,520
Speaker 4: James Milner in the middle of the field and hope

1196
00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 4: that they can handle this Crystal Palace you know, press

1197
00:52:12,800 --> 00:52:15,200
Speaker 4: like this sits up pretty well for Palace to poll

1198
00:52:15,239 --> 00:52:15,680
Speaker 4: at center.

1199
00:52:16,080 --> 00:52:17,160
Speaker 5: I'll be there, Anthony.

1200
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:19,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think they have the physicality to match up

1201
00:52:19,160 --> 00:52:22,120
Speaker 2: with Nunias too. I do expect him to start point.

1202
00:52:22,160 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 2: Liverpool looked a lot better after right after Nunya's came

1203
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:27,640
Speaker 2: in and they opened it up and really kind of

1204
00:52:27,680 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 2: just you know, bulldozed their way to some chances. But yeah,

1205
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:33,400
Speaker 2: I mean Palace was a great underdog last year. I

1206
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:36,440
Speaker 2: think they're undervalued. I think they're still after the first

1207
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:38,160
Speaker 2: match of the season. I feel just as good about

1208
00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:39,680
Speaker 2: them as I did coming into the season. I don't

1209
00:52:39,680 --> 00:52:42,239
Speaker 2: care about the result, care about the performance, especially this

1210
00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:45,640
Speaker 2: early in the season. Performance was very encouraging. Chucked the

1211
00:52:45,640 --> 00:52:48,359
Speaker 2: correy I thought played well in the defensive midfield and

1212
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:50,759
Speaker 2: that's big going up against Liverpool, You're gonna have to

1213
00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 2: do a lot of ball winning. You have to work

1214
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:54,360
Speaker 2: hard without the ball, and that was the strength of

1215
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:55,960
Speaker 2: this Palace team last year. That was why they got

1216
00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:58,319
Speaker 2: so much better defensively and it's why they were top

1217
00:52:58,360 --> 00:53:01,000
Speaker 2: seven and expected goals all out. So I like Palace.

1218
00:53:01,080 --> 00:53:03,799
Speaker 2: I don't love the road split, you know, I'd rather

1219
00:53:03,840 --> 00:53:06,160
Speaker 2: take them plus one at home. But I'm happy to

1220
00:53:06,200 --> 00:53:07,960
Speaker 2: take plus two on the road because I do think that,

1221
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 2: you know, the same thing applies. I only make Liverpool

1222
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:13,000
Speaker 2: one point six goal favorite. I'm happy to take the

1223
00:53:13,000 --> 00:53:13,480
Speaker 2: bus two.

1224
00:53:13,960 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 4: I think we're seeing a little bit of what I

1225
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 4: was talking about before coming to play here, which is

1226
00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:21,680
Speaker 4: the week one kind of gambler fallacy that this team

1227
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:23,400
Speaker 4: is too good to start, you know, oh one and

1228
00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:25,560
Speaker 4: one for Liverpool, there's no way that they don't win

1229
00:53:25,600 --> 00:53:27,480
Speaker 4: one of their first two games as a as a

1230
00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:30,040
Speaker 4: second favorite, and sure like they're very likely to win

1231
00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 4: this game. The odds tell you that they yeah, I.

1232
00:53:32,880 --> 00:53:34,279
Speaker 2: Mean this, Liverpool wins two to one.

1233
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:37,520
Speaker 4: They could I mean this, but this this the market's

1234
00:53:37,560 --> 00:53:39,680
Speaker 4: telling you, Yes, Liverpool is a very very likely winner.

1235
00:53:39,680 --> 00:53:42,840
Speaker 4: But I just think it's it's just way too shaded

1236
00:53:42,880 --> 00:53:45,319
Speaker 4: towards the Reds here because a lot of people are

1237
00:53:45,360 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 4: just assuming that even with the injuries and the fact

1238
00:53:49,040 --> 00:53:52,279
Speaker 4: that Jurgen klop seems, you know, like they're kind of

1239
00:53:52,280 --> 00:53:55,480
Speaker 4: just going to ease their way into the season. Uh, no, Jota,

1240
00:53:55,719 --> 00:53:58,520
Speaker 4: this is a tricky spot man, bj What do you have?

1241
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 1: Yeah? I love Crystal Palace.

1242
00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:05,759
Speaker 3: So Thiago being out is quite big for Liverpool, so

1243
00:54:06,600 --> 00:54:11,480
Speaker 3: especially defensively because he is an incredible pressing midfielder. He's

1244
00:54:11,560 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 3: he's really good at stopping transition. Last season he missed

1245
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 3: twelve matches due to injury. In those twelve matches, Liverpool

1246
00:54:18,600 --> 00:54:21,720
Speaker 3: allowed one point four to four x G per ninety minutes.

1247
00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:25,359
Speaker 3: When he was in the lineup, Liverpool allowed point sixty

1248
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 3: six XG per ninety minutes. That is a drastic drop

1249
00:54:29,560 --> 00:54:32,000
Speaker 3: off in terms of their midfield. They don't really have

1250
00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 3: another midfielder that can do what he does to the

1251
00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 3: extent that he does. They obviously have very good midfielders,

1252
00:54:37,560 --> 00:54:40,520
Speaker 3: but not any to what he provides to their midfield.

1253
00:54:41,280 --> 00:54:44,120
Speaker 3: They weren't really that good against Fulham. I mean, yes,

1254
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 3: they controlled a lot of possession, but actually was one

1255
00:54:46,520 --> 00:54:47,880
Speaker 3: point nine to one point four.

1256
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:50,319
Speaker 1: Shots were eleven to nine, So.

1257
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:53,880
Speaker 3: Not really that great a performance on opening weekend and

1258
00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:56,000
Speaker 3: now they're going to face Chris Palace. Side that we've

1259
00:54:56,360 --> 00:54:59,600
Speaker 3: mentioned at nauseum is the top five defense has the

1260
00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 3: ability and is successful when they're able to sit in

1261
00:55:02,880 --> 00:55:06,319
Speaker 3: and defend, profiles very well against top six sides. It's

1262
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:08,040
Speaker 3: a perfect recipe for an underdog.

1263
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:09,920
Speaker 1: So I'm going to take Liverpool.

1264
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:12,560
Speaker 3: I have Liverpool spread projected at minus one point six,

1265
00:55:13,080 --> 00:55:15,080
Speaker 3: so I'm going to take them plus one and a

1266
00:55:15,120 --> 00:55:17,800
Speaker 3: half plus one thirty, chase a little bit bigger price

1267
00:55:17,920 --> 00:55:20,560
Speaker 3: rather than taking the plus two because they.

1268
00:55:20,800 --> 00:55:22,240
Speaker 1: Profile so well as an underdog.

1269
00:55:22,280 --> 00:55:24,080
Speaker 3: And this is also you know, one of the matches

1270
00:55:24,120 --> 00:55:27,759
Speaker 3: they played again against Liverpool, it was a Seller's Park,

1271
00:55:27,800 --> 00:55:32,040
Speaker 3: but Thiago missed that match and Crystal Palace won on XG.

1272
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:33,640
Speaker 3: They lost the match three one, but they won on

1273
00:55:33,719 --> 00:55:36,160
Speaker 3: XTG two point two to one point seven, and Liverpool

1274
00:55:36,160 --> 00:55:38,920
Speaker 3: had a penalty. So like, this is a team that

1275
00:55:38,960 --> 00:55:41,400
Speaker 3: profiles incredibly well as an underdog, and I think that

1276
00:55:41,400 --> 00:55:43,439
Speaker 3: they'll definitely be able to show up for this match.

1277
00:55:43,520 --> 00:55:45,719
Speaker 3: So I'll say Crystal Palace plus one and a half

1278
00:55:45,760 --> 00:55:46,560
Speaker 3: at plus one thirty.

1279
00:55:46,760 --> 00:55:49,360
Speaker 4: Tell you what the look on Virgil's face when he

1280
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:51,000
Speaker 4: conceded that penalty to Mitrovic.

1281
00:55:51,120 --> 00:55:54,200
Speaker 3: Mean, it was a penalty, but you can't just put

1282
00:55:54,200 --> 00:55:56,160
Speaker 3: your leg out there and then just like, yeah.

1283
00:55:56,480 --> 00:55:58,120
Speaker 2: That was his first palul but it was a pen

1284
00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:02,239
Speaker 2: first penaltypls conceded and in thirty eight years.

1285
00:56:01,880 --> 00:56:04,160
Speaker 5: It's it's uh, it's something else.

1286
00:56:04,280 --> 00:56:05,960
Speaker 4: And the look on his face where he's like, hey,

1287
00:56:06,239 --> 00:56:08,560
Speaker 4: Mike Rgil, I could give up a penalty?

1288
00:56:08,600 --> 00:56:09,439
Speaker 5: Is that allowed? Yes?

1289
00:56:09,440 --> 00:56:09,759
Speaker 1: It is?

1290
00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:13,720
Speaker 5: Yes, pitch was dry, witch was dry, pitch.

1291
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:15,840
Speaker 2: Was seen the Fulham tweet. The Fulham tweet was.

1292
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:20,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was beautiful spring on, wonderful sprinklers going off.

1293
00:56:21,400 --> 00:56:23,800
Speaker 4: I'm glad people are catching on to Anthony's boy. Jergen

1294
00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:27,520
Speaker 4: kloppa an excuse, excuse at it if there ever was one.

1295
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:30,440
Speaker 4: All right, that wraps the Premier League. Let's quickly run

1296
00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:33,759
Speaker 4: through Europe. We're going pretty long here Bundesliga. I like

1297
00:56:34,040 --> 00:56:37,239
Speaker 4: lever Housen minus one and a half against Auxburg lever

1298
00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:40,440
Speaker 4: cousin second and non penalty expected goals and seventh and

1299
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:45,240
Speaker 4: big chances for an offense. Last year Augsburg sixteenth in

1300
00:56:45,640 --> 00:56:49,680
Speaker 4: preventing penalty non penalty expected goals, eleventh in preventing big

1301
00:56:49,719 --> 00:56:52,319
Speaker 4: scoring chances, and their offense is toothless. So I think

1302
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:54,400
Speaker 4: this has blowout written all over it in a in

1303
00:56:54,440 --> 00:56:58,680
Speaker 4: a league that loves a blowout. Anthony your favorite bet

1304
00:56:58,719 --> 00:56:59,200
Speaker 4: in Germany.

1305
00:56:59,600 --> 00:57:02,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I may be joining you on that Leverkusen a

1306
00:57:02,560 --> 00:57:05,359
Speaker 2: bunch of big misses against Dortmund. I like Wolfsburg plus

1307
00:57:05,400 --> 00:57:07,400
Speaker 2: two and a half. I think the market overreacted to

1308
00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:11,319
Speaker 2: Byron's absolute domination of Frankfort on opening weekend. I thought

1309
00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:14,600
Speaker 2: Frankfurt was overrated coming into the season. I didn't read

1310
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:17,480
Speaker 2: too much into that performance, although it does lead credence

1311
00:57:17,480 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 2: to the idea that what I said last week is

1312
00:57:19,520 --> 00:57:20,880
Speaker 2: that Byron is not or what I said on our

1313
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:23,480
Speaker 2: europod is Byron's not gonna miss Levandoski that much. I

1314
00:57:23,520 --> 00:57:25,560
Speaker 2: still think that's true, but I do like Wolfsburg plus

1315
00:57:25,560 --> 00:57:28,320
Speaker 2: two and a half, improved defensively down the stretch last season,

1316
00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:33,040
Speaker 2: attack shows some signs of life. I took the plus

1317
00:57:33,040 --> 00:57:33,600
Speaker 2: two and a half.

1318
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:36,560
Speaker 5: All right, bja your favorite bet in the Bundesliga.

1319
00:57:36,680 --> 00:57:39,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like hurt the Berlin Frankfurt under two and

1320
00:57:39,320 --> 00:57:41,000
Speaker 3: a half goals and plus one ten. I mean, yeah,

1321
00:57:41,040 --> 00:57:45,000
Speaker 3: Frankfort conceded six to Bayern Munich, but hurt their Berlin

1322
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:48,040
Speaker 3: is not Bayern Munich. I mean in a wide open Bundesliga,

1323
00:57:48,400 --> 00:57:51,080
Speaker 3: they averaged point nine to four non penalty expected goals

1324
00:57:51,080 --> 00:57:53,600
Speaker 3: for match. They were third to last and big scoring chances,

1325
00:57:53,600 --> 00:57:56,560
Speaker 3: and they were dead last in offensive passes per defensive action.

1326
00:57:56,720 --> 00:57:59,440
Speaker 3: Frankfurt was a top five pressing team in the Bundesliga

1327
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:02,400
Speaker 3: last year, So I mean I hurt their Berlin. Still

1328
00:58:02,400 --> 00:58:04,840
Speaker 3: they're gonna still rely on a thirty four year old

1329
00:58:04,880 --> 00:58:07,520
Speaker 3: Steven Jovitch as their main striker. I mean he had

1330
00:58:07,520 --> 00:58:09,320
Speaker 3: point three to nine act sheep for ninety last year.

1331
00:58:09,400 --> 00:58:12,760
Speaker 3: Nobody on Berlin had over point twenty five that had

1332
00:58:12,800 --> 00:58:15,120
Speaker 3: more than ten nineties. So this is a really bad

1333
00:58:15,160 --> 00:58:16,960
Speaker 3: offense and Frankfurt. I mean, listen, yeah, they won the

1334
00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:20,040
Speaker 3: Europa League, that's cool, but I mean they were bad

1335
00:58:20,360 --> 00:58:22,919
Speaker 3: offensively in the Bundesliga. They were one point twenty six

1336
00:58:23,040 --> 00:58:25,600
Speaker 3: non penalty expected goals per match and thirteenth and big

1337
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:28,680
Speaker 3: scoring chances. So I mean the last time these two

1338
00:58:28,720 --> 00:58:31,720
Speaker 3: teams met, I mean, you can get crazy wonky scores

1339
00:58:31,760 --> 00:58:33,560
Speaker 3: in the Bundesliga. It just kind of happens from time

1340
00:58:33,600 --> 00:58:36,440
Speaker 3: to time. This was a four to one Frankfurt win

1341
00:58:36,600 --> 00:58:40,360
Speaker 3: with just two expected goals created. So for two teams

1342
00:58:40,360 --> 00:58:42,680
Speaker 3: that are averaging under one point three, you know, actually

1343
00:58:42,720 --> 00:58:44,280
Speaker 3: per match, I'm going to take under two and f

1344
00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:45,800
Speaker 3: goals plus one ten it's.

1345
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:48,240
Speaker 2: A little bit of a flat spot too. Frankfurt playing

1346
00:58:48,360 --> 00:58:50,960
Speaker 2: Real Madrid on Wednesday in the Super Coiner kind of funny,

1347
00:58:51,480 --> 00:58:54,120
Speaker 2: but they will have a bit of a lockdown. You

1348
00:58:54,160 --> 00:58:56,880
Speaker 2: play Byron, you play Real Madrid, and you play here at.

1349
00:58:56,840 --> 00:59:01,560
Speaker 4: The Berlin Yeah, Laaliga, Welcome back Aliga, and what a

1350
00:59:01,560 --> 00:59:04,040
Speaker 4: bet to get it started Atletico Madrid.

1351
00:59:04,120 --> 00:59:07,000
Speaker 5: Gatafe draw plus two ten Katafe.

1352
00:59:07,120 --> 00:59:09,320
Speaker 4: We're the lowest event team in La Liga, which is

1353
00:59:09,360 --> 00:59:13,080
Speaker 4: the lowest event league on perhaps the planet. One point

1354
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:15,560
Speaker 4: nine to five total goals per game last year in

1355
00:59:15,640 --> 00:59:18,120
Speaker 4: Katafe matches, and we know what at Leti does like

1356
00:59:18,120 --> 00:59:20,200
Speaker 4: they do the same thing and they prefer teams to

1357
00:59:20,280 --> 00:59:21,840
Speaker 4: have the ball and come at them so they can

1358
00:59:22,120 --> 00:59:23,320
Speaker 4: hit you on their counter.

1359
00:59:23,720 --> 00:59:24,760
Speaker 5: They're not gonna be able to do that.

1360
00:59:25,040 --> 00:59:27,120
Speaker 4: So Gatafe at home, I think they can hang with

1361
00:59:27,400 --> 00:59:29,760
Speaker 4: at Letti here. Get a point plus two ten in

1362
00:59:29,840 --> 00:59:33,160
Speaker 4: what should be a snoozer on Monday too. That's my

1363
00:59:33,200 --> 00:59:35,440
Speaker 4: favorite bet in La Liga, Anthony, what about you.

1364
00:59:35,520 --> 00:59:38,800
Speaker 2: Back on the Ryo boys. Ryo Vaacano team total over

1365
00:59:38,840 --> 00:59:41,080
Speaker 2: a half at plus one oh five on the road

1366
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:44,880
Speaker 2: at Barcelona. Look Barcelona, there's so much uncertainty at the

1367
00:59:44,920 --> 00:59:47,760
Speaker 2: club right now with you know, all the registering of

1368
00:59:47,800 --> 00:59:49,240
Speaker 2: the players, and I.

1369
00:59:49,160 --> 00:59:50,440
Speaker 1: Don't know what is coming.

1370
00:59:50,960 --> 00:59:52,360
Speaker 2: I don't know what to make of any of that.

1371
00:59:52,520 --> 00:59:55,880
Speaker 2: What I do know is that I think when you

1372
00:59:55,920 --> 00:59:58,800
Speaker 2: look at the chav system, it has a tendency to

1373
00:59:59,000 --> 01:00:03,840
Speaker 2: conceive goals and scoring chances. Barcelona's without the ball defense

1374
01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:06,959
Speaker 2: is still pretty mediocre. They rely on having the ball

1375
01:00:07,120 --> 01:00:09,000
Speaker 2: as their defense and when they don't have it, they struggle.

1376
01:00:09,000 --> 01:00:11,919
Speaker 2: And Viacano was extremely dangerous with the ball in direct

1377
01:00:12,000 --> 01:00:16,000
Speaker 2: counter attacking sequences last year and underperformed vastly relative to

1378
01:00:16,040 --> 01:00:18,840
Speaker 2: their expected goals. A lot of positive aggression coming for Vacano.

1379
01:00:19,240 --> 01:00:22,480
Speaker 2: I like the over team total plus one O five BJ.

1380
01:00:22,680 --> 01:00:24,720
Speaker 3: What about you, Well, you talk about low events. I'm

1381
01:00:24,720 --> 01:00:26,640
Speaker 3: actually gonna go with an over and La Leaga open

1382
01:00:26,640 --> 01:00:30,280
Speaker 3: it up. Valid a lead over Yeah, welcome back to

1383
01:00:30,400 --> 01:00:34,840
Speaker 3: La Liga Real. Valid lead taking on our boys via Real.

1384
01:00:35,440 --> 01:00:36,880
Speaker 3: I like over two and a half goals at minus

1385
01:00:36,880 --> 01:00:38,760
Speaker 3: one P five, so valid the lead. Yeah, they got

1386
01:00:38,800 --> 01:00:41,560
Speaker 3: relegated two years ago. They were very defensive for four

1387
01:00:41,600 --> 01:00:43,880
Speaker 3: to two, but they're one season they spent in the

1388
01:00:43,880 --> 01:00:44,600
Speaker 3: second Division.

1389
01:00:44,640 --> 01:00:45,600
Speaker 1: They were an over team.

1390
01:00:45,760 --> 01:00:48,520
Speaker 3: You know, their matches average three point two expected goals

1391
01:00:48,560 --> 01:00:51,160
Speaker 3: and they themselves average around one point nine x cheapern Onney.

1392
01:00:51,160 --> 01:00:52,560
Speaker 3: Now they're not going to do that in La Liga

1393
01:00:52,600 --> 01:00:54,280
Speaker 3: and they might set up more defense, but yeah, that's

1394
01:00:54,320 --> 01:00:57,480
Speaker 3: that's fair. But I mean via Real offensively was an

1395
01:00:57,520 --> 01:01:00,000
Speaker 3: absolute jugger, not under an i amory.

1396
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:01,960
Speaker 1: I mean they averaged one point.

1397
01:01:01,760 --> 01:01:03,600
Speaker 3: Sixty five expected goals per match. That was better than

1398
01:01:03,640 --> 01:01:06,040
Speaker 3: Barcelona last year. I mean very slightly, but they were

1399
01:01:06,560 --> 01:01:10,680
Speaker 3: just as good as Barcelona, So diets they should have

1400
01:01:10,720 --> 01:01:13,360
Speaker 3: no problem creating chance against valid the lead who you know,

1401
01:01:13,400 --> 01:01:15,400
Speaker 3: they averaged day allowed one point three to five actually

1402
01:01:15,440 --> 01:01:17,120
Speaker 3: per match in the second division. That's not really that

1403
01:01:17,200 --> 01:01:20,320
Speaker 3: good or that dominant. And vi Real on the other

1404
01:01:20,560 --> 01:01:23,640
Speaker 3: end of the spectrum, they overperformed defensively thirty seven goals

1405
01:01:23,680 --> 01:01:26,400
Speaker 3: off forty seven expected. So I'm gonna bet on a

1406
01:01:26,400 --> 01:01:28,560
Speaker 3: little bit of chaos here in this match. So I'm

1407
01:01:28,560 --> 01:01:29,800
Speaker 3: gonna go over two and a half goals of minus

1408
01:01:29,840 --> 01:01:31,120
Speaker 3: one o five Anthony.

1409
01:01:31,520 --> 01:01:34,200
Speaker 4: We will also welcomed back Siria Ah from your homeland.

1410
01:01:34,600 --> 01:01:36,000
Speaker 4: You got to ballo at the end of your name,

1411
01:01:36,600 --> 01:01:38,320
Speaker 4: so we'll let you kick it off with your favorite

1412
01:01:38,360 --> 01:01:39,000
Speaker 4: bet in Italy.

1413
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:43,280
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take Bologna plus one at Lozzio. I mean, like,

1414
01:01:43,320 --> 01:01:45,280
Speaker 2: if you listened to this podcast in the last year,

1415
01:01:45,360 --> 01:01:47,920
Speaker 2: you know how we feel about Lazzio and them scoring

1416
01:01:48,000 --> 01:01:51,080
Speaker 2: every single chance they created last year. Where Bologna's defense

1417
01:01:51,120 --> 01:01:53,640
Speaker 2: was actually pretty underrated, especially toward the end of last season,

1418
01:01:54,240 --> 01:01:57,640
Speaker 2: they made some significant improvements in the second half, conceded

1419
01:01:57,680 --> 01:02:01,920
Speaker 2: fewer goals, fewer chances and profile well is a good underdog.

1420
01:02:01,920 --> 01:02:04,560
Speaker 2: Because of that, they are kind of the team outside

1421
01:02:04,640 --> 01:02:09,440
Speaker 2: the Big six or seven rather who are consistently between

1422
01:02:09,480 --> 01:02:11,160
Speaker 2: eight to twelve. You know, so Swallow is generally in

1423
01:02:11,200 --> 01:02:13,240
Speaker 2: there two. But to Swallow losing a couple of pieces

1424
01:02:13,240 --> 01:02:16,680
Speaker 2: that are pretty important. I think Bologna is underrated here.

1425
01:02:16,720 --> 01:02:20,000
Speaker 2: I make Lazzio minus one thirty five. They are minus

1426
01:02:20,000 --> 01:02:23,320
Speaker 2: one eighty one ninety. I like Bologna plus one.

1427
01:02:23,680 --> 01:02:25,160
Speaker 5: PJ. What do you have for us in Italy?

1428
01:02:25,400 --> 01:02:28,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go Tono Toronto bett minus one oh five.

1429
01:02:28,240 --> 01:02:32,120
Speaker 3: They're taking on newly promoted Manza. If you listen to

1430
01:02:32,280 --> 01:02:35,000
Speaker 3: me and Anthony's preview pod for the rest of Europe,

1431
01:02:35,600 --> 01:02:38,040
Speaker 3: you know where I'm going with this one. Manza in

1432
01:02:38,080 --> 01:02:40,080
Speaker 3: the second division. Last year they had to come up.

1433
01:02:40,080 --> 01:02:42,400
Speaker 3: They had to come up through the playoff. They had

1434
01:02:42,440 --> 01:02:46,160
Speaker 3: a plus zero point six expected goal differential per ninety minutes,

1435
01:02:46,560 --> 01:02:50,240
Speaker 3: and now suddenly they're gonna be basically a pick them

1436
01:02:50,280 --> 01:02:54,240
Speaker 3: against a Torino team that was top ten and expected

1437
01:02:54,280 --> 01:02:58,680
Speaker 3: goal differential that was third and non penalty expected goals allowed. Yeah,

1438
01:02:58,680 --> 01:03:01,440
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take Tono saying that Torino lost Bremer. I

1439
01:03:01,520 --> 01:03:04,520
Speaker 3: understand they lost Pratt. I understand that. You know, they've

1440
01:03:04,520 --> 01:03:08,240
Speaker 3: they've lost a couple they lost Andrea Blodi. But they

1441
01:03:08,240 --> 01:03:10,200
Speaker 3: did make a couple moves. They brought in Lazarro as

1442
01:03:10,200 --> 01:03:12,200
Speaker 3: a right back from Entered. You know, they brought a

1443
01:03:12,320 --> 01:03:16,920
Speaker 3: promising defensive midfielder and Ricky from and Poli. And I,

1444
01:03:17,000 --> 01:03:18,560
Speaker 3: like I already said, I think people are forgetting this

1445
01:03:18,600 --> 01:03:20,160
Speaker 3: is the top three defense. I mean, this is the

1446
01:03:20,240 --> 01:03:23,160
Speaker 3: number one team in Syria I in pass per defensive action.

1447
01:03:23,360 --> 01:03:25,760
Speaker 3: So you take a team that still has the same

1448
01:03:25,800 --> 01:03:29,480
Speaker 3: system intact going up against a newly promoted side that

1449
01:03:29,520 --> 01:03:32,320
Speaker 3: can press them that. You know, Torino was top seven

1450
01:03:32,440 --> 01:03:35,600
Speaker 3: in average possession, so they're very similar team. How I

1451
01:03:35,640 --> 01:03:37,800
Speaker 3: feel about them, as with you know Brighton in the

1452
01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:40,120
Speaker 3: Premier League, where a team that can press, control possession

1453
01:03:40,120 --> 01:03:42,680
Speaker 3: and play through pressure. So that's gonna be a little

1454
01:03:42,680 --> 01:03:44,960
Speaker 3: difficult for a monsa team that I think is drastically

1455
01:03:44,960 --> 01:03:48,240
Speaker 3: overvalued to cope with in their first ever match in

1456
01:03:48,240 --> 01:03:51,479
Speaker 3: Syria A. So I'm taking Torino Drono Bett at even money.

1457
01:03:51,520 --> 01:03:53,479
Speaker 3: I have then projected at plus one oh seven.

1458
01:03:54,720 --> 01:03:56,320
Speaker 5: Now BJ Yeah.

1459
01:03:56,160 --> 01:03:56,600
Speaker 1: Let's uh.

1460
01:03:56,920 --> 01:03:59,160
Speaker 3: You know people have listened to this podcast a lot.

1461
01:04:00,120 --> 01:04:02,680
Speaker 3: All this the set it and forget it game essentially,

1462
01:04:02,960 --> 01:04:04,520
Speaker 3: you know, a match that's gonna be really boring and

1463
01:04:04,520 --> 01:04:06,520
Speaker 3: there's really no reason to watch someone Bolt team scored

1464
01:04:06,600 --> 01:04:11,880
Speaker 3: no in rems. Claremont Foot so Reams was pretty bad

1465
01:04:11,920 --> 01:04:14,160
Speaker 3: defensively against Marseille, but you know they give an own

1466
01:04:14,160 --> 01:04:14,840
Speaker 3: goal in thirteenth.

1467
01:04:15,520 --> 01:04:16,680
Speaker 1: They kind of changes things.

1468
01:04:16,800 --> 01:04:18,280
Speaker 3: But I mean last year this was a team that

1469
01:04:18,360 --> 01:04:21,080
Speaker 3: was tenth and non penalty expectacles allowed. They were top

1470
01:04:21,080 --> 01:04:24,040
Speaker 3: five and big scoring chances allowed, and they're very, very

1471
01:04:24,240 --> 01:04:26,680
Speaker 3: conservative in their nature, and they're taking on a Claremont

1472
01:04:26,800 --> 01:04:32,919
Speaker 3: Foot side that lost their best striker. Bio has gone

1473
01:04:32,960 --> 01:04:35,000
Speaker 3: to lil. He had fourteen goals and a point five

1474
01:04:35,000 --> 01:04:36,960
Speaker 3: to two actually per nine emnente scoring rate for them.

1475
01:04:37,680 --> 01:04:40,120
Speaker 3: He's gone, So that leaves a big void. They were

1476
01:04:40,200 --> 01:04:43,000
Speaker 3: awful against PSG in the first match, so I think

1477
01:04:43,040 --> 01:04:46,560
Speaker 3: this one has low events zero zero maybe a reams

1478
01:04:46,600 --> 01:04:48,280
Speaker 3: won nothing win written all over it.

1479
01:04:48,320 --> 01:04:49,360
Speaker 1: So I'm going bolt team to score no.

1480
01:04:49,520 --> 01:04:51,880
Speaker 4: Mins one O five and before we get to our

1481
01:04:51,920 --> 01:04:54,400
Speaker 4: favorite underdogs and then our best bets of the Premier League.

1482
01:04:54,400 --> 01:04:57,040
Speaker 4: Anthony your favorite bet in league.

1483
01:04:57,040 --> 01:04:59,720
Speaker 2: All yeah, I was worried. I mean, Leo rolled opening

1484
01:04:59,760 --> 01:05:02,000
Speaker 2: week end at home and I was like, oh no,

1485
01:05:02,000 --> 01:05:04,880
Speaker 2: I'm not going to get a good number against on Friday.

1486
01:05:05,800 --> 01:05:07,880
Speaker 2: We got the good number pick them minus one twenty

1487
01:05:08,000 --> 01:05:11,200
Speaker 2: make Leo a pretty solid favorite. I want to keep

1488
01:05:11,200 --> 01:05:13,600
Speaker 2: fading this not team. They failed to score against Angiers.

1489
01:05:13,880 --> 01:05:16,600
Speaker 2: It was a pretty even game overall. It's lined as

1490
01:05:16,600 --> 01:05:18,280
Speaker 2: to pick them, so I you know, can't really complain

1491
01:05:18,280 --> 01:05:20,480
Speaker 2: about a push there, but I'm going to keep fading them,

1492
01:05:20,520 --> 01:05:23,240
Speaker 2: and I love to bet on Leo Leal. Yes, they

1493
01:05:23,280 --> 01:05:25,320
Speaker 2: lost some pieces, you know, like you know, Zakie Chellick

1494
01:05:25,360 --> 01:05:27,760
Speaker 2: has gone, and you know they're not quite the same team.

1495
01:05:27,800 --> 01:05:29,560
Speaker 2: And of course you know, now we're two years removed

1496
01:05:29,640 --> 01:05:33,040
Speaker 2: from from you know, the Barachio Males incredible season. But

1497
01:05:33,200 --> 01:05:35,160
Speaker 2: I mean, like Jonathan David is in the middle of

1498
01:05:35,160 --> 01:05:37,080
Speaker 2: a leap, I think, and he's, you know, one of

1499
01:05:37,080 --> 01:05:39,880
Speaker 2: the more underrated strikers, and I just think that they

1500
01:05:39,880 --> 01:05:42,920
Speaker 2: have a lot more attacking firepower than Naant does. So

1501
01:05:42,960 --> 01:05:44,240
Speaker 2: I like Leo on the drawn to bet.

1502
01:05:44,920 --> 01:05:47,200
Speaker 4: And now we'll move on to our favorite hundred dots

1503
01:05:47,360 --> 01:05:51,400
Speaker 4: of the weekend, and then we'll tell you the parlay

1504
01:05:51,480 --> 01:05:53,959
Speaker 4: price if you wrap all three of them together. Last

1505
01:05:53,960 --> 01:05:57,160
Speaker 4: week we had Brighton Brentford and Leverkusen. Brighton cashes as

1506
01:05:57,160 --> 01:06:00,680
Speaker 4: a five to one underdog. This week, I'm gonna started

1507
01:06:00,720 --> 01:06:06,720
Speaker 4: off with a bang Crystal Palace team to one against Liverpool.

1508
01:06:07,200 --> 01:06:09,480
Speaker 4: We might be dead already, but this Crystal Palace team.

1509
01:06:09,520 --> 01:06:12,720
Speaker 4: Overlook them at your own peril here. They shouldn't be

1510
01:06:12,720 --> 01:06:16,320
Speaker 4: fourteen to one against any team, perhaps in all of Europe.

1511
01:06:16,560 --> 01:06:19,040
Speaker 4: Liverpool's midfield is going through an injury crisis, Thiago and

1512
01:06:19,160 --> 01:06:22,600
Speaker 4: Kata's out. Bj went over his splits earlier in the

1513
01:06:23,000 --> 01:06:26,600
Speaker 4: on off Splits with Thiago and Liverpool earlier in the podcast.

1514
01:06:26,600 --> 01:06:27,120
Speaker 5: They're ugly.

1515
01:06:27,360 --> 01:06:29,600
Speaker 4: He's an incredibly important player for them. They looked a

1516
01:06:29,600 --> 01:06:31,920
Speaker 4: little susceptible defensively against Fulham.

1517
01:06:32,080 --> 01:06:33,320
Speaker 5: There is some kind of.

1518
01:06:33,720 --> 01:06:35,760
Speaker 4: Maybe like a little bit of a little bit of

1519
01:06:36,000 --> 01:06:37,920
Speaker 4: a jet lag kind of thing going on with them

1520
01:06:37,920 --> 01:06:41,000
Speaker 4: after a really long preseason where they were in Thailand

1521
01:06:41,160 --> 01:06:43,800
Speaker 4: and then other parts of Asia, then they were in Europe,

1522
01:06:43,840 --> 01:06:45,640
Speaker 4: then they played the Community Shield, and that was coming

1523
01:06:45,680 --> 01:06:48,000
Speaker 4: off of a very long season which they played sixty games.

1524
01:06:48,040 --> 01:06:49,120
Speaker 5: I think you're catching.

1525
01:06:48,840 --> 01:06:52,160
Speaker 4: Liverpool out at a pretty good time here, and Palace

1526
01:06:52,240 --> 01:06:52,600
Speaker 4: is good.

1527
01:06:52,680 --> 01:06:53,439
Speaker 5: They're just a good team.

1528
01:06:53,440 --> 01:06:56,000
Speaker 4: They shouldn't be fourteen to one against anybody. We'll start

1529
01:06:56,000 --> 01:06:58,120
Speaker 4: it off with Crystal Palace. It's a long shot. This

1530
01:06:58,120 --> 01:07:01,160
Speaker 4: one's going to be a big price, but who knows,

1531
01:07:01,200 --> 01:07:03,400
Speaker 4: maybe it'll It'll be one of those season changers for

1532
01:07:03,680 --> 01:07:05,440
Speaker 4: everybody listening. Anthony, what about you?

1533
01:07:05,720 --> 01:07:08,200
Speaker 2: Fulham plus two twenty five? Tough week for me to

1534
01:07:08,200 --> 01:07:11,440
Speaker 2: pick an underdog. Not a ton on the board that

1535
01:07:11,520 --> 01:07:13,240
Speaker 2: I love, love, but I do think I have the

1536
01:07:13,280 --> 01:07:16,919
Speaker 2: better team at plus two twenty five if I'm right

1537
01:07:17,080 --> 01:07:20,600
Speaker 2: about Paulinia and Pereira upgrading this full of midfield considerably,

1538
01:07:20,680 --> 01:07:23,560
Speaker 2: on top of Mitrovich and what I like a lot

1539
01:07:23,600 --> 01:07:25,160
Speaker 2: about this team, I think they're the better team here.

1540
01:07:25,200 --> 01:07:26,720
Speaker 2: So even though they're on the road, I'm going to

1541
01:07:26,760 --> 01:07:28,240
Speaker 2: take them on the money line.

1542
01:07:28,320 --> 01:07:31,120
Speaker 3: Bj Oh sooner plus two twenty at home to kick

1543
01:07:31,120 --> 01:07:34,880
Speaker 3: off the Law League season on Friday, taking on Sevilla.

1544
01:07:35,400 --> 01:07:37,960
Speaker 1: Sevilla was basically.

1545
01:07:37,440 --> 01:07:40,280
Speaker 3: One of the bigger, biggest overperformers in Europe last year.

1546
01:07:40,320 --> 01:07:42,880
Speaker 3: I know Anthony had a vendetta against them. He was

1547
01:07:43,200 --> 01:07:44,200
Speaker 3: against them quite a bit.

1548
01:07:45,080 --> 01:07:47,320
Speaker 2: Plus twenty three actual profitable vendetta.

1549
01:07:47,600 --> 01:07:51,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, plus twenty three actual goal differential plus five

1550
01:07:52,120 --> 01:07:55,760
Speaker 3: expect a goal differential that is quite drastic. And they

1551
01:07:55,880 --> 01:07:58,720
Speaker 3: just lost their two starting center backs. Kunda's gone to Barcelona,

1552
01:07:58,760 --> 01:08:01,680
Speaker 3: Diego Carlos is gone to aston Villa, and they haven't

1553
01:08:01,720 --> 01:08:04,520
Speaker 3: really done anything to replace it. They only have two

1554
01:08:04,600 --> 01:08:07,280
Speaker 3: center backs on their roster right now. So you have

1555
01:08:07,320 --> 01:08:09,280
Speaker 3: a team that's due for a ton of negative aggression.

1556
01:08:09,440 --> 01:08:11,280
Speaker 3: They're facing an o Soon, a team that is mid

1557
01:08:11,320 --> 01:08:14,120
Speaker 3: table club like. They're a decent defensive team. They were

1558
01:08:14,160 --> 01:08:17,840
Speaker 3: top ten and expected goals allowed. They're not that great offensively,

1559
01:08:17,960 --> 01:08:19,760
Speaker 3: But I mean, if you're giving me this big of

1560
01:08:19,800 --> 01:08:22,080
Speaker 3: a price for a Sevia team that's going through a

1561
01:08:22,080 --> 01:08:24,960
Speaker 3: lot of transition that is probably gonna struggle a lot

1562
01:08:24,960 --> 01:08:27,880
Speaker 3: more than they did last season defensively, Yeah, I'm gonna

1563
01:08:27,880 --> 01:08:29,200
Speaker 3: take oh Soon A plus two twenty.

1564
01:08:29,520 --> 01:08:33,919
Speaker 4: If you have it within yourself to wrap together Palace

1565
01:08:34,360 --> 01:08:37,120
Speaker 4: Fulham and Osasuna one hundred and fifty five to one.

1566
01:08:37,200 --> 01:08:39,840
Speaker 4: Should all three of those teams win, it's gonna happen.

1567
01:08:40,120 --> 01:08:41,880
Speaker 4: All right, Let's move on to our favorite bets in

1568
01:08:41,920 --> 01:08:44,360
Speaker 4: the Premier League for match week two BJ.

1569
01:08:44,680 --> 01:08:45,360
Speaker 5: We'll start with you.

1570
01:08:45,840 --> 01:08:48,080
Speaker 3: Renford plus half a goal at minus one ten at

1571
01:08:48,080 --> 01:08:52,479
Speaker 3: home against Manchester United. Manchester United, what they showed in

1572
01:08:52,520 --> 01:08:55,200
Speaker 3: the first match against Brighton is that nothing's really changed

1573
01:08:55,240 --> 01:08:57,360
Speaker 3: that much. Even though Eric ten Howkins in charge. They

1574
01:08:57,439 --> 01:08:59,439
Speaker 3: still look like a team that has no interest in

1575
01:08:59,479 --> 01:09:03,679
Speaker 3: playing as together cohesive pressing style that they were supposed

1576
01:09:03,680 --> 01:09:06,320
Speaker 3: to be under Ralph Ragnick. Well, Brighton just ran them

1577
01:09:06,400 --> 01:09:10,400
Speaker 3: right over. They pressed them successfully and that's something Brentford

1578
01:09:10,400 --> 01:09:12,160
Speaker 3: I think can do well as well. They were a

1579
01:09:12,240 --> 01:09:14,720
Speaker 3: top ten teams in terms of a pass per defensive action,

1580
01:09:14,880 --> 01:09:18,759
Speaker 3: high turnovers and ball recoveries, so you're getting a Brentford

1581
01:09:18,800 --> 01:09:21,719
Speaker 3: team that not only that they're really good on set pieces,

1582
01:09:21,760 --> 01:09:23,840
Speaker 3: they were a top five in terms of XG. Manchester

1583
01:09:23,960 --> 01:09:27,960
Speaker 3: United drastically overperformed they're expected goals allowed on set pieces

1584
01:09:27,960 --> 01:09:31,360
Speaker 3: and Brentford played way better at the Brentford Community Stadium,

1585
01:09:31,360 --> 01:09:33,639
Speaker 3: they were around a plus five expected gold differential, Manchester

1586
01:09:33,720 --> 01:09:36,400
Speaker 3: United away from home minus seven expected gold differential, and

1587
01:09:36,439 --> 01:09:39,000
Speaker 3: these two teams weren't. There wasn't that big of a

1588
01:09:39,040 --> 01:09:41,880
Speaker 3: gap between them in terms of expected gold differential in

1589
01:09:41,960 --> 01:09:44,479
Speaker 3: the table last year Manchester United was plus point three

1590
01:09:44,720 --> 01:09:47,880
Speaker 3: Brentford was minus one point three. So there's no reason

1591
01:09:47,880 --> 01:09:50,479
Speaker 3: why Manchester United should be an even money favorite at Brentford.

1592
01:09:50,479 --> 01:09:52,320
Speaker 3: So give me the these plus half a goal at

1593
01:09:52,320 --> 01:09:53,639
Speaker 3: minus one ten, I'll.

1594
01:09:53,520 --> 01:09:57,000
Speaker 4: Be backing the over. In leads Southampton over three plus

1595
01:09:57,000 --> 01:09:58,519
Speaker 4: one thirty. I like over three and a half at

1596
01:09:58,520 --> 01:10:01,839
Speaker 4: two to one as well. Last year Leeds United finished

1597
01:10:02,000 --> 01:10:05,040
Speaker 4: nineteenth in non penalty expected goals allowed, sixteenth in big

1598
01:10:05,080 --> 01:10:09,080
Speaker 4: scoring chances allowed, Southampton twentieth in big chances allowed, seventeenth

1599
01:10:09,160 --> 01:10:13,479
Speaker 4: and non penalty expected goals allowed. Southampton loves to press, press, press,

1600
01:10:13,479 --> 01:10:16,759
Speaker 4: press press. Leeds United is a very quick striking team,

1601
01:10:16,920 --> 01:10:19,000
Speaker 4: so this thing is gonna see saw out of control.

1602
01:10:19,080 --> 01:10:20,880
Speaker 4: I believe it's a good live over a game two

1603
01:10:20,920 --> 01:10:23,599
Speaker 4: if it's a slow start. Over three plus one thirty

1604
01:10:23,800 --> 01:10:26,400
Speaker 4: lead Southampton is my favorite bet for the week in

1605
01:10:26,439 --> 01:10:28,479
Speaker 4: the Premier League. Anthony take us home.

1606
01:10:28,640 --> 01:10:31,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna take Crystal Palace plus two minus one twenty.

1607
01:10:32,240 --> 01:10:34,400
Speaker 2: I thought Palace was pretty impressive in their opening day

1608
01:10:34,400 --> 01:10:36,840
Speaker 2: defeat to Arsenal. I don't care too much about the

1609
01:10:36,880 --> 01:10:39,519
Speaker 2: actual result. I care about the performance. The performance said

1610
01:10:39,520 --> 01:10:42,920
Speaker 2: they played about even with Arsenal. They were excellent defensively.

1611
01:10:43,000 --> 01:10:44,960
Speaker 2: They did concede off of a set piece, but only

1612
01:10:45,000 --> 01:10:48,639
Speaker 2: one big scoring chance allowed. They then conceded an own goal,

1613
01:10:48,680 --> 01:10:51,160
Speaker 2: but overall, over the course of sixty minutes, you know,

1614
01:10:51,200 --> 01:10:53,720
Speaker 2: the last sixty minutes they were the better side, more

1615
01:10:53,760 --> 01:10:58,160
Speaker 2: shots inside the penalty area than Arsenal generated themselves, expected goals,

1616
01:10:58,200 --> 01:11:00,559
Speaker 2: expected threat all even. Now they get to face a

1617
01:11:00,560 --> 01:11:03,360
Speaker 2: Liverpool team who will not have Thiago and Palace's strength.

1618
01:11:03,439 --> 01:11:06,200
Speaker 2: Last year, playing without the ball, defending without the ball

1619
01:11:06,400 --> 01:11:08,800
Speaker 2: something they were very impressive with. Now they add Chuck

1620
01:11:08,840 --> 01:11:10,880
Speaker 2: to Korray to the defensive midfield. I think similar to

1621
01:11:10,880 --> 01:11:13,280
Speaker 2: what Paulinia did last week for Fulham. I think to

1622
01:11:13,400 --> 01:11:15,880
Speaker 2: Corey can help break up the play, slow down Liverpool,

1623
01:11:16,080 --> 01:11:18,640
Speaker 2: keep this game competitive. Don't think they'll win, but I

1624
01:11:18,680 --> 01:11:21,280
Speaker 2: do think at plus two I like the Eagles on

1625
01:11:21,320 --> 01:11:21,679
Speaker 2: the road.

1626
01:11:21,880 --> 01:11:24,880
Speaker 4: Pallas Bournemouth parlay five hundred and nine to one if

1627
01:11:24,880 --> 01:11:26,600
Speaker 4: you plaim on the money line. By the way, and

1628
01:11:26,680 --> 01:11:30,040
Speaker 4: on that note, we'll wrap up another episode of Wonder Goal.

1629
01:11:30,200 --> 01:11:33,080
Speaker 4: I'm Michael Lebuff for BJ Cunningham and I the Dubundo.

1630
01:11:33,120 --> 01:11:35,280
Speaker 4: We will shoot all the best with your bests in

1631
01:11:35,360 --> 01:11:40,120
Speaker 4: match Week two of the Premier League and beyond