1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,080 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:26,639 Speaker 2: Here's a great lead sense in a Bloomberg in History 7 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 2: by Greg Store. A divided US Supreme Court expanded the 8 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 2: president's power to fire top government officials in a blockbuster 9 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:36,920 Speaker 2: decision that puts the White House firmly in control of 10 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:41,159 Speaker 2: potentially dozens of agencies that have long operated independently. I'm 11 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 2: not sure how to think about that. I think everybody's 12 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 2: trying to digest it. Nick Ackerman, he's got some thoughts. 13 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 2: He's a former assistant special Watergate prosecutor. 14 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:49,559 Speaker 3: Nick. 15 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:51,479 Speaker 2: Thanks so much for joining us here. It seems like 16 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 2: the executive branch just got a big, big win today. 17 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 2: How do you think about that? 18 00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 4: Well, they did, and they didn't. They certainly got it 19 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 4: on all of the agencies other than the FED. The 20 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 4: Supreme Court told the President that he cannot fire Lisa 21 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 4: Cook unless he fires her for cause, gives her notice, 22 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 4: has a hearing. He can't just use it to basically 23 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 4: take over the FED and bend the FED to his will. 24 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:25,040 Speaker 4: The Court there said very clearly that Congress intended that 25 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 4: the FED would have independent power to regulate the economy. Now, 26 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:34,039 Speaker 4: on the other hand, the other case that came out 27 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 4: today had to do with the Federal Trade Commission, where 28 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 4: the Court essentially went along with this unitary executive theory 29 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 4: that if the agency itself was doing what would normally 30 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 4: be done by the President as part of his executive authorities. 31 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 4: I mean, keep in mind that the FTC does antitrust 32 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 4: enforcement pretty much the same thing that the Department of 33 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 4: Justice does. That what the court said was that those 34 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 4: are matters within the realm of the executive power, and 35 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 4: therefore the President has the right to fire those people. Now, 36 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:17,079 Speaker 4: they did leave open the notion that there's maybe another 37 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 4: issue out there that has to do with whether or 38 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 4: not something like the FTC is a semi judicial body, 39 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 4: and that the FTC commissioners sit as judges in certain 40 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 4: respects and therefore are entitled to a little more deference. 41 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:36,839 Speaker 4: But the Court said that's an issue for another day 42 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:41,119 Speaker 4: and sent that back to the lower courts for consideration. 43 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:45,920 Speaker 5: Okay, so does that mean Rebecca Kelly Slaughter has a 44 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 5: recourse here that she can kind of reltigate what's happening. 45 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 4: Well, all she can re litigate is to argue that 46 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 4: just as we had always thought about these federal agencies, 47 00:02:56,919 --> 00:03:03,960 Speaker 4: that they're quasi judicial, quasi legislative, and quasi executive, and 48 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 4: somehow she's got to be able to argue out that 49 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 4: there is a special part of this that is quasi 50 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 4: judicial and that she should be permitted to continue in 51 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 4: that role. The problem with that is is that obviously 52 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:21,639 Speaker 4: a FTC commissioner has a lot of different roles and 53 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 4: to separate it out is not that easy. And why 54 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 4: would you keep somebody in just for that purpose. I 55 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 4: just don't know where this goes, but it seems to 56 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 4: me any president who now comes into office has the 57 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 4: right to get rid of all the FTC commissioners, the 58 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 4: FCC commissioners, etc. In order to put his own people 59 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 4: in there. What's unfortunate it is in the past, whatever 60 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 4: president was in power got the majority of commissioners, and 61 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 4: the other party, whether it was Democrat or Republican, had 62 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 4: a certain number of positions. 63 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 3: It really was. 64 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 4: More of a bipartisan type of op This will make 65 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 4: it much more partisan in terms of who gets appointed 66 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 4: to these positions. It means whoever becomes president will have 67 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 4: the power to appoint those commissioners. 68 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 2: All Right, Nick, If I'm former FED Chairman Jerome Powell, 69 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 2: how do I look at this Lisa Cook. 70 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 3: Decision? 71 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 2: Do I feel comfortable leaving the FED and going out 72 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:23,279 Speaker 2: in the private practice? 73 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 4: Well, I guess there's two parts to that that question. One, 74 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 4: I think he feel comfortable knowing that Lisa Cook cannot 75 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 4: be taken away, that nobody else can be taken away 76 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 4: just because President Trump disagrees with how they come out 77 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 4: on interest rates. On the other hand, it does mean 78 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 4: that the president can appoint other people that he can 79 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 4: still put in his own individuals. And if I were 80 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 4: the chairman, the former chairman, I don't think i'd leave 81 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 4: quite yet, since he's going to be a vote more 82 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 4: consistent with an independent view than the others, And so 83 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:09,919 Speaker 4: from that standpoint, I would stick it out for a 84 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 4: while and see how things go. I think he has 85 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:16,040 Speaker 4: to feel comfortable before he leaves. He can feel comfortable 86 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:20,839 Speaker 4: on the lease of situation. But as to how else 87 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 4: the FED is run, I think he probably has to 88 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 4: wait and see right. 89 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 5: And of course he also probably wants to wait for 90 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:31,040 Speaker 5: that dog investigation to be completely put out to pasture 91 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 5: Nick before we let you go. We know the Supreme 92 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:37,920 Speaker 5: Court will issue its remaining opinions tomorrow and that includes 93 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 5: the birthright citizenship decision. How are you thinking about what 94 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 5: a likely decision would mean for the economy. 95 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 4: Well, I think it's going to be it should be 96 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,039 Speaker 4: at least that they're just going to go along with 97 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 4: the plain language of the Constitution that somebody born in 98 00:05:57,279 --> 00:06:01,719 Speaker 4: the United States is a citizen the United States unless 99 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 4: they have some other jurisdictional issues, such as being the 100 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 4: offspring of an ambassador from a foreign country. I don't 101 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 4: think that will really impact the economy whatsoever. The decision 102 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 4: a few days ago relating to the Haitians and the Syrians, 103 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 4: that does have an impact on the economy because those 104 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 4: people could be sent back to their countries, They could 105 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:28,920 Speaker 4: be taken out of the economy, could be taken out 106 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 4: of their jobs. And that is where I think where 107 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 4: we're going to see an impact on the economy, none of. 108 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:36,160 Speaker 3: Which is good. 109 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 110 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 111 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 112 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 113 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 114 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 5: Let's check in with Mike mcglohone's our senior monoty strategists 115 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 5: for Bloomberg Intelligence. Mike, the latest out of Iran and 116 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 5: the Middle East is that both sides have agreed to 117 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 5: halt mutual attacks. 118 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 6: Is that necessary for crude oil prices to kind of 119 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 6: stay at these. 120 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:15,920 Speaker 5: Current levels or if there's going to be you know, 121 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 5: skirmishes once again because we've gone through a couple of 122 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 5: weekends like this, will that reignite oil prices? 123 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 4: Well? 124 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 7: I think the round trip world US scarlet's much poor appropriate. 125 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 7: I don't think we've ended the bottom end of that 126 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 7: round trip, So something really bad has to happen straight 127 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:35,119 Speaker 7: for crudell to maybe get near or stay above eighty. 128 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 7: I think that's what most traders are looking at, is 129 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 7: leveling want to reset those shorts, and both entities in 130 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 7: the Strait have vested interest in its staying open now. 131 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 7: I mean rants getting a good deal can sell crude 132 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 7: all and an open market. Finally that drill Will is 133 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 7: going global, so the normal scales for crudell to get 134 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 7: back to where it was before, but with fuel this time, 135 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 7: because we just added a lot of supply and in 136 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 7: Western Hemisphere from all those prices going up, that was 137 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:00,680 Speaker 7: hovering around fifty five dollars of barrels. So Mike base 138 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 7: case or second half of the year is we're going 139 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 7: to press below that and potentially towards forty. On one 140 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 7: key premise, the stock market drops down a little bit 141 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 7: and stays down a little bit. That's usually how crude 142 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 7: oil makes bottoms. Just stock market has to go down. 143 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 2: So is there going to be a if you talk 144 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 2: to your trader buddies, some kind of straight of FORMUS 145 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 2: kind of premium baked into global oil, or is reach 146 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 2: can go right back to supply and demand. 147 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 6: Well, I've already gone. 148 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 7: Back to it, Paul, But we've accelerated the supply and 149 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:33,559 Speaker 7: decreased the demand, and we've accelerated that process of the 150 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 7: redundancy of opek and the price maker status shifting to 151 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 7: the Western Hemisphere. So let's look at drill will before 152 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,680 Speaker 7: this war started. First that we had US Canada. Now 153 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 7: we have Venezuela, Iran, UAE, potentially Iraq. The whole world's 154 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 7: going that way, and it's also looking forward to a 155 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 7: potential you know, draw down in what's happening in the economy. 156 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 7: So to me, this is a normal cycle. But it's 157 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 7: not just Crudel. It happened in corn, soybeans, and wheat, 158 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 7: bitcoin and natural We asked all those markets are heading lower, 159 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 7: and the key theme is what makes them go up 160 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:05,720 Speaker 7: in the second half of the year. But what does 161 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 7: mister Trump need for midterms? Lower inflation? Krudell's going to 162 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 7: lead the way. I fully expect he's going to get 163 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 7: it and heading towards below fifty and stops go lower, 164 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 7: like I said, close to the forty. 165 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:19,079 Speaker 5: Yeah, you've been remarkably consistent about that call, Mike since 166 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,960 Speaker 5: the beginning. Let's get your take on gold prices, because 167 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 5: you said commodities are going down. Gold is no exception, 168 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 5: holding it about four thy thirty five, but still a 169 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:30,600 Speaker 5: far cry from where it was before the Iran War, 170 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 5: which was basically at about five thousand. 171 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 6: Two hundred or so. What is the outlook for gold 172 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 6: right now? 173 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 7: I think Scarlett's's shifting to a bear market on the 174 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 7: back of bitcoin, and it has to look forward to 175 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:49,319 Speaker 7: fed vigilance. We've reached a plateau of inflation increasing and 176 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 7: stock on the back of the stock market and really. 177 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 3: Hurting people in election. 178 00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:55,600 Speaker 7: So what does mister Trump need. It needs lower inflation. 179 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 6: Goal's a big part of that. 180 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 7: The key theme about gold is that opportunity we got 181 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 7: in Q one might have been the best selling opportunity 182 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:05,320 Speaker 7: in this, you know, a couple couple decades, and now 183 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 7: we're heading towards a more normal cycle. I think it's 184 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,080 Speaker 7: gonna be stuck in the range for years. Good supports 185 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 7: around thirty four hundred, good resistance is around its two 186 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:16,160 Speaker 7: hundred two hundred day, moving to ravage around forty four hundred. 187 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 6: But if history is. 188 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 7: A guide, Goal will be stocking a range maybe for 189 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:22,720 Speaker 7: the next twenty years like Crudeau was the last twenty years. 190 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 191 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 192 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarcklay, and Android 193 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 194 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 195 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 2: John Butler he covers all the telecom stuff for Bloomberg 196 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 2: Intelligence and John Charter SpaceX you're part of the research 197 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 2: team covering SpaceX here. What's what's the story here? 198 00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, so Paul SpaceX is looking for an in in 199 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:03,280 Speaker 3: the US wireless market. You know, if you look at 200 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:07,199 Speaker 3: their satellite constellation today, they have six hundred and fifty 201 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:12,200 Speaker 3: direct to sell satellites that are providing very limited coverage 202 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 3: and service in partnership with T Mobile by the way, 203 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 3: it's called the T Satellite Service, But it really doesn't 204 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 3: have the kind of horsepower where they could really compete 205 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 3: closely with the incumbent carriers like AT and T or Verizon. 206 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:33,160 Speaker 3: And so I think what Starlink may be hoping to 207 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:37,319 Speaker 3: do here with Charter is get access to a terrestrial 208 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 3: network that they compare with her, that they can put 209 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 3: together with the satellite network and take another step forward 210 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 3: towards providing what I'll call terrestrial like cellular services. I'd 211 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 3: add there's a lot that would need to be done 212 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 3: before they really get there, even if they were to 213 00:11:56,200 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 3: partner or even buy Charter, but again, it would it 214 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:05,840 Speaker 3: would bring them a big step closer to competing with 215 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:09,200 Speaker 3: the big incumbents here, and I think there's a lot 216 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 3: of concern among telecom investors about this rising competitive threat. 217 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 2: So what do you think how much treastial capacity do 218 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 2: you think SpaceX might need? 219 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 6: Would would a charter get it done? 220 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 2: Or would you need a charter, Comcast get a you know, 221 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 2: an AT and T or something. 222 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:33,839 Speaker 3: Boy, it's a complicated question. So the cable operators have 223 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:40,560 Speaker 3: gotten into the terrestrial wireless business by striking a wholesale 224 00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 3: deal with Verizon and some of the other carriers, so 225 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 3: they don't quite have this spectrum or the airwaves to 226 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 3: do it themselves. They're essentially using Verizon and AT and 227 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:57,560 Speaker 3: T's network as a means of allowing their consumers to 228 00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:03,720 Speaker 3: have wireless service. Starlink has about sixty five megahertz's spectrum 229 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:05,839 Speaker 3: I'm going to give some numbers here just to give 230 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 3: a perspective, whereas T Mobile has almost four hundred megahertz, 231 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 3: and so Starlink has a way to go before they're 232 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 3: there as a standalone carrier. And then if they partner 233 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 3: with one of the cable operators, there's the complexity of 234 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 3: that wholesale deal with the carriers themselves that might get 235 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 3: called into question. If you look at Charter, they have 236 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 3: some spectrum, but they don't have a lot of it. 237 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 3: So again, Starlink would be sort of left in what 238 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 3: I'll call that subscale position in terms of having the 239 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:46,199 Speaker 3: right amount of airwaves to offer wireless service. 240 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:48,360 Speaker 2: Well, here's a name from way back in the past 241 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 2: in spectrum. What happened happened to Charlie Ergen's spectrum. 242 00:13:54,480 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 3: So Charlie sold his spectrum to SpaceX. Is how SpaceX 243 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 3: got the sixty five megahertz of spectrum that they have today. 244 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:10,319 Speaker 3: And what Ergin was doing was using that spectrum, together 245 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:14,559 Speaker 3: with those wholesale agreements with Verizon and AT and T 246 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 3: and T Mobile by the way, to offer their own 247 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 3: branded wireless service. So my feeling is to just sort 248 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 3: of distill it all down. Even if Starlink were to 249 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 3: acquire Charter, let's say, I still think they would need 250 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 3: to work out a deal where they wholesale some network 251 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 3: capacity from the big three incumbents, and to date at 252 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 3: least that has proven to be a little bit of 253 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 3: a sticking point for them. 254 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 2: So is the stock movement here a twelve thirteen percent 255 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 2: move higher and Charters that tell you that some investors 256 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 2: think that Starlink may infect I mean SpaceX may. In fact, 257 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:53,880 Speaker 2: by Trader outright. 258 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 3: They might, But as I sort of think through it, 259 00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:00,440 Speaker 3: one thing that Starlink has is they have a very 260 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 3: strong broadband business, and if you look at what's driving 261 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 3: the bus for all the cable operators today, it is 262 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:12,360 Speaker 3: the broadband business. So they're acquiring redundancy there. I think 263 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 3: if they buy Charter, in my mind, I think what 264 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 3: they would more likely do is wholesale the Charter network 265 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 3: to begin that process of trying to figure out how 266 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 3: to provide that last mile in building wireless coverage, which 267 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 3: is the real challenge for a SpaceX, and having those 268 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 3: network facilities would afford them a bit of an advantage 269 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 3: relative to where they are today. So in my mind, 270 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 3: I'm thinking partnership as opposed to acquisition, But who knows. 271 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 3: I mean, I think they could go either route. 272 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 2: Here. 273 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 274 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 275 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 1: days at ten am. He's done on Apple, Cocklay and 276 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 1: Android Otto with the Blueberg Business app. Listen on demand 277 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 278 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 2: You know, the only thing I really know about how 279 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 2: a bill becomes a law I learned from that Schoolhouse 280 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:20,040 Speaker 2: rock back in the day. Ye, So yeah, I don't know. 281 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,920 Speaker 2: I mean, what's going on here? Didn't the House and 282 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 2: the Senate passed this House he did? 283 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:27,119 Speaker 5: It was a bipartisan boa and it was pretty overwhelming, 284 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 5: but the President decided not to sign it, and he 285 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 5: says he wants his voting right ID to be bill 286 00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 5: to be passed first, but the Senate has made clear, 287 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 5: the Republican controlled Senate has made clear that the votes 288 00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:41,640 Speaker 5: just are not there. So Nathan Dean is our senior 289 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 5: policy analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Nathan, what happens to this 290 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 5: housing bill that was passed by both chambers of Commerce Congress? 291 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:53,640 Speaker 6: Excuse me? But the President has yet to sign. 292 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:56,880 Speaker 8: So Speaker Johnson said that he's going to send that 293 00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 8: bill to the White House today. And the reason why 294 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 8: that's important is that it starts a ten day clock 295 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:04,119 Speaker 8: that President Trump can essentially has three choices. He can 296 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:06,199 Speaker 8: either sign the bill, he can veto the bill, or 297 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,320 Speaker 8: he can do nothing. And if he does nothing, that 298 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 8: the bill then automatically becomes law. And I think that's 299 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:13,439 Speaker 8: where you know, two of these scenarios are going to play. Oh, 300 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 8: he's either going to sign the bill or the bill's 301 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:17,399 Speaker 8: going to become law. I don't see the President Trump 302 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 8: going to veto this bill because even though this bill, 303 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 8: you know, he called it Senator Elizabeth Warren's bill, like 304 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:26,639 Speaker 8: you noted, it's overwhelmingly by partisan and it gives both 305 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:28,480 Speaker 8: sides of the aisle the opportunity to go ahead of 306 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 8: the midterms and say we care about affordability because that 307 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:34,120 Speaker 8: is the biggest driver of this bill, is that it's 308 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:36,159 Speaker 8: an affordability housing bill. So that's why I think the 309 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:37,440 Speaker 8: bill ultimately becomes law. 310 00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 2: Well, Nathan, that argument was perfectly coaching, which is why 311 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:43,439 Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna put some money down on he 312 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 2: vetoes it. I mean, why wouldn't he, It's I that's 313 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 2: classic Trump. 314 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 8: Well, so President Trump's real, you know motivation here is 315 00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:54,200 Speaker 8: to try and get Congress, like you said, past the 316 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 8: Save America Act. This is the bill that deals with 317 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:59,840 Speaker 8: citizen you know, Senator a citizenship voting. He even said 318 00:17:59,840 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 8: that just a few moments ago on True Social and 319 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 8: Response to the Supreme Court. Now, what I think ultimately 320 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 8: happens here is that they're trying to get Save America 321 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 8: Act through reconciliation. Long story, short is it's not going 322 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,359 Speaker 8: to work. But if they try and get something tied 323 00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:15,679 Speaker 8: to grants, and the idea here right now is that 324 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:18,919 Speaker 8: you offer four billion dollars in grants to states to 325 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 8: incentivize to implement the Save America Act, that could be 326 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 8: a pathway forward for essentially Speaker Johnson to say to 327 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:28,120 Speaker 8: the White House, Look, we're doing what you've asked. We're 328 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 8: doing it within the role of what we can get 329 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 8: through Congress. Sign the bill. I think that's where President 330 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 8: Troub will ultimately agree to. But we'll see he can 331 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:38,080 Speaker 8: always be to it, because nobody expected him last week 332 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 8: to say that he wasn't going to sign it either. 333 00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:43,920 Speaker 5: Okay, so here's my question about this housing bill. How 334 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 5: effective is it Because there's an affordability crisis in the 335 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:50,280 Speaker 5: country and this is a federal bill, so it tries 336 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:52,119 Speaker 5: to do things at the federal level. But there's all 337 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 5: I mean, states have their own laws and regulations and rules. 338 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:58,840 Speaker 5: So does this bill, if it becomes law, really move 339 00:18:58,880 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 5: the needle. 340 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:01,680 Speaker 8: So there's a short term and that there's a long 341 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 8: term aspect to this from the short term. If you're 342 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 8: listening to us right now in New York City, is 343 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,919 Speaker 8: it going to decline the price of homes or make 344 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:10,440 Speaker 8: it more affordable. No, You're not really going to see 345 00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 8: much of a short term impact on this. This is 346 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:15,359 Speaker 8: essentially just messaging from the short term side. From the 347 00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 8: long term side, it's incrementally better for the housing. You know, 348 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 8: we've done some analysis, call it one to three percent 349 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:23,320 Speaker 8: growth in terms of new homes. 350 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 6: Long story, you know, talking about the next. 351 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:27,840 Speaker 8: Three to five years, but you're really looking at markets 352 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 8: like Austin, Texas, or Birmingham, Alabama, rather than New York 353 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 8: City or Washington, d C. At the end of the day, 354 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,199 Speaker 8: this bill was mostly from the investment side talking about negatives. 355 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,800 Speaker 8: There was some original language in here that would actually 356 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,359 Speaker 8: sort of make the bill to rank communities unfeasible going forward. 357 00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 8: That was scary for some of the single named single 358 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 8: family home reads out there, like invitation homes at AMH. 359 00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:51,520 Speaker 8: But ultimately there's so many exemptions in this bill. You know, 360 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,119 Speaker 8: that really scary headline isn't really all that much of 361 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:54,920 Speaker 8: an impact for them. 362 00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:58,359 Speaker 2: Thirty seconds left, Nathan, anything that we should be looking 363 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:02,159 Speaker 2: for going forward from this Congress really quickly. 364 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:03,680 Speaker 8: Two things that you're going to see in July is 365 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 8: going to see Clarity Act. This is the Crypto Bill. 366 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 8: I'm still like a sixty percent chance that this thing 367 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 8: is going to pass, but time is all the essence, 368 00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 8: and you're going to see a lot of negative headlines 369 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:14,720 Speaker 8: about artificial intelligence and data centers coming out of the 370 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 8: Senate side, as well a lot of debates going to 371 00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:17,240 Speaker 8: take place in July on that. 372 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 373 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:26,200 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 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