WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Chris Whalen & Wendy Schiller

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. Single best idea on

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<v Speaker 1>the night, the evening, the pageantry of the State of

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<v Speaker 1>the Union. We're going to get to Professor Schiller, Wendy Schiller,

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<v Speaker 1>Brown University down the line. This is where we give

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<v Speaker 1>you two thoughts from our show. Today's show is wildly eclectic.

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<v Speaker 1>We talked about ESG and the new ESG, the challenges there,

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<v Speaker 1>to say the least. We had a wonderful discussion on leverage.

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<v Speaker 1>How much leverage do you have into in video? Over

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<v Speaker 1>nine hundred dollars a share. But and again this is

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<v Speaker 1>the do you give you a vignette here into how

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<v Speaker 1>we act? I have no control purposely over the guests

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<v Speaker 1>we get. I will say to people, you know, all

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<v Speaker 1>this guests really didn't fit, or that one didn't fit.

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<v Speaker 1>But basically, Bob Bragg and our team put the entire

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<v Speaker 1>show together without talking to me. And what that usually

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<v Speaker 1>means is I get really wonderful surprises. I got a

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<v Speaker 1>wonderful surprise at eight fifty five this morning, we're in

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<v Speaker 1>five minutes. We had Christopher Whalen come on. He has

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<v Speaker 1>the definitive one volume on American financial history Inflated. He

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<v Speaker 1>announced on the show. He's in rewrite out at a

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<v Speaker 1>substantial rewrite, but he's wonderful. On analysis of the banking system,

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<v Speaker 1>we talked about SVB in the spring. I guess a

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<v Speaker 1>year ago. Now we have NYCB in New York really

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<v Speaker 1>troubled the former Treasury secretary coming in yesterday with a

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<v Speaker 1>billion Whalen and I agree that seems like an awful

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<v Speaker 1>small amount of money. But what we really did with

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<v Speaker 1>Chris Whalen is we talked about, Okay, we're here, where

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<v Speaker 1>are we going within the banking system?

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<v Speaker 2>So I think your dad, there were a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>models that grew over the last ten years, really since

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<v Speaker 2>two thousand and eight that don't work at and particularly

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<v Speaker 2>the change in the valuation of urban commercial and urban

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<v Speaker 2>multi family real estate. It's episodic. You know, I raided

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<v Speaker 2>many of the banks in New York Tom when I

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<v Speaker 2>was picked Corole. These portfolios had to see any appreciable

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<v Speaker 2>credit loss in seventy five, one hundred years, and they

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<v Speaker 2>were always fully let. These buildings today we're talking about

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<v Speaker 2>are fully lit the cash flow, but you can't sell them.

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<v Speaker 2>The value has been cutting half.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a window into where we are with the NYCB,

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<v Speaker 1>and what we're talking about there is the marketing concepts

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<v Speaker 1>where SVB was going after for reduced fees, people with

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of money to sit there where they could

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<v Speaker 1>make money on the lead brick of money in their portfolio.

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<v Speaker 1>And NYCB had to do with the vicissitudes of the

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<v Speaker 1>New York City rental market and all that and where

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<v Speaker 1>we go from here. It was really interesting. Chris, there's

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<v Speaker 1>some real vulnerabilities out there. He seems to be dead

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<v Speaker 1>on that. We'll have to follow this very closely into

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<v Speaker 1>next year. And of course we'll do this with Banker,

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<v Speaker 1>and he's coming out. I actually looked already. It's not

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<v Speaker 1>upon us, but out one month. JP Morgan on April twelfth.

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<v Speaker 1>We're out on Apple car Play. We're on YouTube live.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of confusion there. It's just simple, go to

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube and this is live seven to ten Wall Street time.

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<v Speaker 1>You type in Bloomberg Podcasts and you go there and

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<v Speaker 1>it says surveillance this that, and you can get a

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<v Speaker 1>wonderful live feed of Paul Sweeney, as handsome as he is.

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<v Speaker 1>It is single best idea. Thank you so much for

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<v Speaker 1>tuning in. It's an experiment, it's a work in progress,

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<v Speaker 1>to say the least. We are listening to Chris Wayland

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<v Speaker 1>talking about banking systems, the troubles that are out there

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<v Speaker 1>specifically for NYCB, and the rescue I guess I'll call

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<v Speaker 1>it a rescue in the last twenty four hours. The

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<v Speaker 1>rescue tonight is for President Biden. He has to come

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<v Speaker 1>out with all the politics of his party and of

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<v Speaker 1>this nation and do the pageantry that from our childhood

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<v Speaker 1>we all adore. A little bit of history here George

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<v Speaker 1>Washington had an annual address in seventeen ninety and then

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<v Speaker 1>on you go with all different permutations of a State

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<v Speaker 1>of the Union. It became somewhat codified with FDR and

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<v Speaker 1>radio Harry Truman, I believe was the first televised State

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<v Speaker 1>of the Union that was before my time. Wise guys

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<v Speaker 1>out there, and then on we go to the pageantry

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<v Speaker 1>and then the amazing television football that we have now.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course we'll have complete coverage with Joe Matthew and

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<v Speaker 1>Kaylee Lines with people not the usual back and forth politics,

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<v Speaker 1>but people with some real depth about the pending Biden

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<v Speaker 1>Trump battle. We went for depth, and we do that

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<v Speaker 1>at Brown University with Wendy Schiller, her textbook is definitive

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<v Speaker 1>in America as an introduction to high level civics. And

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<v Speaker 1>she was fired up today, Wendy Schiller here on a

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<v Speaker 1>fractious Democratic Party.

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<v Speaker 3>I think the Biden missasion made a pretty significant flaw

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<v Speaker 3>in their selling of their legislative program, the Inflation Reduction

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<v Speaker 3>Act infrastructure. They didn't really really tie what they we're

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<v Speaker 3>doing to how it's going to improve people's lives. And

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<v Speaker 3>this is what Democrats do. They go big. They're successful,

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<v Speaker 3>yet a lot of big things passed, and then they

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<v Speaker 3>completely fail to selve properly. The Republicans cut taxes, raised deficits,

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<v Speaker 3>and they are the magic party on the economy. This

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<v Speaker 3>has been true for forty years. I mean, I don't

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<v Speaker 3>know if there's a magic, you know, magic answer to this,

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<v Speaker 3>but I think right now, telling people the economy is

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<v Speaker 3>better than they think it is is not going to work.

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<v Speaker 3>Showing people how the government has helped them in the

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<v Speaker 3>face of a bad economy a couple of years ago.

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<v Speaker 1>May one, Wendy Schiller, consultant to the Democratic Party. She

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<v Speaker 1>said in the early nineteen eighties, and they said, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>that's enough of that. But her enthusiasm is really infectious.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just like whatever your political persuasion, every time she

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<v Speaker 1>is with us, the professor from around university makes us

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<v Speaker 1>smarter about the political process. The goal of single best

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<v Speaker 1>idea is not to make you smarter. I'm not going

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<v Speaker 1>to do that for you. The goal is to take

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<v Speaker 1>the treasured conversations we have an economics, finance investment on

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<v Speaker 1>international relations and give you two little vignettes into what

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<v Speaker 1>we've done today. An Apple CarPlay and YouTube lige on

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg surveillance