Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two hundred
Speaker 1: and forty two since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic.
Speaker 1: Today we have a special extended edition of the show.
Speaker 1: The coronavirus is on a rampage around the world. The
Speaker 1: view from Europe is especially alarming with the surging cases
Speaker 1: and deaths, two levels not seen since last spring, and
Speaker 1: now the US is entering its most dangerous period for
Speaker 1: the virus yet. Case rates are breaking records every day.
Speaker 1: Hospitalizations have reached a level never seen before, and more
Speaker 1: than ten million people have been infected eight months into
Speaker 1: the pandemic. We are looking back at how exactly we
Speaker 1: got here. We're also looking ahead to what's next for
Speaker 1: the outbreak. In a wide ranging interview, I asked reporters
Speaker 1: Michelle Fake Cortiz and Robert Langreuth to break down what
Speaker 1: we can expect in the year ahead. They touched on
Speaker 1: everything from the dangers of the coming winter to the
Speaker 1: promise of an effective vaccine and the effect of a
Speaker 1: new presidential administration. With ten million cases and exponential growth
Speaker 1: rates in so many areas, where does the US and
Speaker 1: really the world stand in terms of COVID nineteen. We
Speaker 1: are seeing exponential growth in the United States and we're
Speaker 1: trailing Europe still by a little bit here, so we
Speaker 1: can see what our future is going to look like,
Speaker 1: which is continued rising number of cases followed by rising
Speaker 1: hospitalizations and deaths as well. It is not looking good
Speaker 1: in the United States. We do have some examples from Asia,
Speaker 1: particularly where they have done a much better job of
Speaker 1: locking down and keeping the virus under control, but we
Speaker 1: are not seeing that in Europe or the US yet.
Speaker 1: As a result, we are going to need to start
Speaker 1: doing things in order to get the virus under some
Speaker 1: kind of a manageable condition. The challenge is going to
Speaker 1: be that the virus is so widespread across every part
Speaker 1: of the United States and the European continent that the
Speaker 1: threats are coming for every person from every angle. So
Speaker 1: it's not just a large gathering of people that puts
Speaker 1: you at risk. You might just be at your own
Speaker 1: family's Thanksgiving dinner with ten people and one of those
Speaker 1: people can be infected, and there's still no way to
Speaker 1: know on the day whether anyone present at your table
Speaker 1: is infected. So almost everything that we're going to be
Speaker 1: doing throughout this winter is going to be a calculated risk. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I would say that this is exactly what epidemiologists, public
Speaker 1: health experts were worried about that as we go into
Speaker 1: the fall months, and as it gets colder and drier
Speaker 1: and then and more people spend more time indoors, the
Speaker 1: virus is going to be able to spread more easily.
Speaker 1: In cases, we're going to rise. And this is exactly
Speaker 1: the scenario that epidemiologists were worried about or worried that
Speaker 1: would happen. And now it's upon us UH and and
Speaker 1: exactly kind of the worst case scenarios are unfolding in
Speaker 1: terms of rapid transmission, rapid increase in hospitalizations, and uh
Speaker 1: an increase in deaths. We're closing in rapidly on a
Speaker 1: quarter of a million deaths in the United States and
Speaker 1: they're likely to go up from there. So we're just
Speaker 1: not in the position that authorities I hope we would
Speaker 1: be on. The hope was that we'd get cases down
Speaker 1: lower over the summer and put us in a better
Speaker 1: position for the fall, but that's not what happened. So
Speaker 1: many hopes have been pinned on the development and availability
Speaker 1: of a safe and effective vaccine to COVID nineteen. And
Speaker 1: of course this week there has been news of Visor's
Speaker 1: vaccine candidate a very high efficacy in its late stage trials.
Speaker 1: So what does this change, if anything, in terms of
Speaker 1: a timeline to a vaccine. This news about Fiser's vaccine
Speaker 1: is quite dramatic. It's much better than anybody was expecting
Speaker 1: early on when they were just starting to develop the immunization.
Speaker 1: Dr Fauci said that it's extraordinary and it's been heralded
Speaker 1: by public health officials across the US and the world.
Speaker 1: The idea that we could have something that's more than
Speaker 1: effective at preventing healthy people from becoming infected with coronavirus
Speaker 1: is important not only for its ability to protect people,
Speaker 1: but it's also really critical to help people get through
Speaker 1: this next period, this very deadly and dangerous winter that
Speaker 1: we're looking at, when people need to be inside their houses,
Speaker 1: social distancing, masking, and continuing to take these isolating practices
Speaker 1: that it's hard for everyone to do. But there is
Speaker 1: light at the end of the tunnel here. We do
Speaker 1: know that there looks to be a vaccine that's on
Speaker 1: the horizon, and it would be really a shame if
Speaker 1: people weren't able to get through this last bit before
Speaker 1: we can start getting some help externally, getting some immunity
Speaker 1: from something other than falling sick. Yeah, So what's important
Speaker 1: to keep in mind though, while this is undeniably promising
Speaker 1: under annimally a good you know, first step in terms
Speaker 1: of initial efficacy, there's just a lot we don't know yet.
Speaker 1: What we have right now is essentially a press release
Speaker 1: of top line results. We have no scientific study or
Speaker 1: not even presentation of the full scientific data, not even
Speaker 1: fire scene of that because the trial is still ongoing.
Speaker 1: So there's lots of questions that we still have less left.
Speaker 1: Or the safety of the vaccine, and even the longevity
Speaker 1: of the effect. We really know next to nothing right now.
Speaker 1: But the duration of the effect of this vaccine or
Speaker 1: even you know, how it works in certain certain key
Speaker 1: subsets of the population, like the elderly or people with
Speaker 1: pre existing conditions, we really don't know. You know, what
Speaker 1: is driving this very strong overall ethicacy result, is are
Speaker 1: being driven by younger or older patients. All these key
Speaker 1: details we don't know. So there are several steps that
Speaker 1: are going to happen as this unfolds over the next
Speaker 1: several weeks. The first thing next week, we're looking for
Speaker 1: a FIGHTSER to get two months safety follow up data
Speaker 1: of patients in their big trial, and that is a
Speaker 1: key metric that the US Food and Drug Administration is
Speaker 1: looking for UH in order to give an emergency authorization
Speaker 1: for any vaccine. Since vaccines are given to millions of
Speaker 1: healthy people, it's very very important that vaccines have an
Speaker 1: extraordinarily high level of safety, and so this is UH.
Speaker 1: This is the next crucial data that fighter is going
Speaker 1: to get next week, and if that goes as plan,
Speaker 1: then FIGHTSER should be able to apply for emergency use
Speaker 1: authorization to the FDA. And what the FDA says, they're
Speaker 1: not going to just review it behind closed doors in
Speaker 1: the back room. In addition to reviewing it internally, they're
Speaker 1: gonna bring all the data into a public hearing with
Speaker 1: a committee of top advisors to the agency. This is
Speaker 1: a committee of outside doctors and experts at universities around
Speaker 1: the country that are going to review all the data
Speaker 1: in public to make sure that there's confidence in the
Speaker 1: vaccine and the data before any vaccine is granted an
Speaker 1: emergency authorization. And then the final step is there's gonna
Speaker 1: once this comes out, which could possibly happen in December,
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a huge shortage of supply. There's not
Speaker 1: gonna be remotely near enough supply relative to the population
Speaker 1: that could need it. So what's going to happen is
Speaker 1: a second committee of experts outset experts and doctors affiliated
Speaker 1: with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That committee
Speaker 1: is gonna take all the data and decide basically who
Speaker 1: should get it first. And basically a very small percentage
Speaker 1: of the population is likely to have access to a
Speaker 1: vaccine first. It's probably gonna be either people that are
Speaker 1: very high risk for getting an infection, such as healthcare workers,
Speaker 1: or people are very high risk uh if they get
Speaker 1: infect of getting severe complications, such as the elderly. So
Speaker 1: will probably be if it gets an emergency authorization, this
Speaker 1: vaccine do not you should not expect it to be
Speaker 1: available for you, you and me. This is a vaccine,
Speaker 1: it's going to be available for kind a very small
Speaker 1: subset of high risk people. Initially, so Bob took us
Speaker 1: up to the point of distribution, but you have to
Speaker 1: realize that that's only the beginning of what's happening with
Speaker 1: the vaccine. Especially with many of these vaccines, you need
Speaker 1: those two doses. So you get your first dose, you
Speaker 1: wait three weeks or a month, then you get your
Speaker 1: second dose. So that's going to take some time. And
Speaker 1: then your body has to respond to the vaccine to
Speaker 1: create that immunity inside of you. That's also going to
Speaker 1: take some time. So we're looking to, you know, at
Speaker 1: least the summer before we start seeing substantial numbers of
Speaker 1: people who have been able to get the vaccine, who
Speaker 1: have been able to get the two doses, who have
Speaker 1: had their immune systems ex bosed, and are now creating
Speaker 1: some kind of protection. And of course at that point
Speaker 1: in the summer, we should be seeing a drop naturally
Speaker 1: in the amount of viruses out there anyway, especially in
Speaker 1: the northern part of the country, as people start going
Speaker 1: back outside. So the bottom line from where I'm sitting
Speaker 1: is that we're not going to know whether or not
Speaker 1: we've got this under control until about this time next year.
Speaker 1: That's where my mind is. In addition to vaccines, of course,
Speaker 1: we are also seeing the development of therapeutics, the approval
Speaker 1: of drugs to treat the symptoms of COVID nineteen. Those
Speaker 1: are in use now increasingly, how do you see these
Speaker 1: playing role? How are these helping if at all? Uh So,
Speaker 1: there's really only one drug that's conclusively shown to like
Speaker 1: lower death rates from the coronavirus, and that's a very
Speaker 1: old drug, decks of metha zone, a steroid drug, and
Speaker 1: that's this helps very people, very advanced cases of the
Speaker 1: coronavirus in the I c U who are having trouble breathing.
Speaker 1: And it's a it's a steroid basically suppresses the immune system.
Speaker 1: And what is thought that the late stages of the disease,
Speaker 1: what really happens is that the outer control immune system
Speaker 1: response to the virus become actually becomes harmful, and that's
Speaker 1: what puts people over the edge and actually kills them
Speaker 1: in the end. So this steroid, this old old drug,
Speaker 1: which is one of the drugs that Donald Trump got
Speaker 1: when he was treated for coronavirus. Thought that this steroid
Speaker 1: can suppress the immune response that helped keep people alive,
Speaker 1: and that was showing pretty definitively to lower the death
Speaker 1: rate in the universe of Oxford study. That's the only
Speaker 1: drug that's shown to clearly lower the death rate. Now
Speaker 1: there's another drug, of course, everyone's heard about ram desiviere
Speaker 1: from Gilliatt Sciences, and that did is the first drug
Speaker 1: in the US to officially be fully approved by the
Speaker 1: FDA for the coronavirus. But it's been shown mainly to
Speaker 1: speed up the rate of improvement, the rate people get
Speaker 1: better who are hospitalized. But what it hasn't been shown
Speaker 1: to do, uh is lower the death rate from the coronavirus.
Speaker 1: So even though it gut full approval, it's contribution is
Speaker 1: still and is still controversial over how well it works
Speaker 1: and what it's doing. But it did get full approval
Speaker 1: and is a widely used drug even though its role
Speaker 1: is still somewhat controversial. While ramdesivier might not be a
Speaker 1: Lazarous like product, it does help people recover more quickly.
Speaker 1: It does help people get out of the hospital, and
Speaker 1: that is something that's worthwhile to have. So, Bob, what's
Speaker 1: happening right now with antibody therapies. Yeah, so, and a
Speaker 1: lot of therapies are very important type of therapy. They
Speaker 1: thought to be a kind of a bridge to a vaccine,
Speaker 1: a bridge together to this very difficult period we're in
Speaker 1: right now, until we get to the point where a
Speaker 1: vaccine is widely available and that's why there is excitement
Speaker 1: about that. And the first of these antibody therapies just
Speaker 1: received a earnency authorization from the U S. Food and
Speaker 1: Drug Administration. That's the antibody therapy from Eli Lily that
Speaker 1: was developed in in the collaboration with a Canadian biotech company.
Speaker 1: And basically what it does is if you get it
Speaker 1: can get it early enough in your of course the disease,
Speaker 1: it can help keep you out of the hospital, keep
Speaker 1: you from going to the emergency room. But basically if
Speaker 1: you take it early, you can help it from progressing
Speaker 1: into a more severe case. But you do need to
Speaker 1: get it be treated early on with this to have
Speaker 1: an effect. It didn't in a trial. It did not
Speaker 1: work once you're impossibilized patients. That was too late. Uh.
Speaker 1: And the problem we have right now with these there
Speaker 1: are these antibodies are very hard to produce and aren't
Speaker 1: going to be quite short supply. Literally was talking about
Speaker 1: shipping out its first doses of this this week and
Speaker 1: that is just not enough, so that that is a
Speaker 1: real problem. Nobody anticipated that would be in such bad
Speaker 1: shape in terms of coronavirus cases. Yeah, I think a
Speaker 1: few months ago, and so while this therapy helps, there's
Speaker 1: just not enough of it to go around relative to
Speaker 1: the number of people that may benefit from it. I
Speaker 1: think that there is a silver lining when we're looking
Speaker 1: at the coronavirus outbreak, which is generally a very black, bleak,
Speaker 1: negative picture right now with rising cases, rising hospitalizations, rising depths,
Speaker 1: and that is that we know an awful lot more
Speaker 1: now about how to treat those people. Not only that
Speaker 1: we actually have things that can make a difference. And
Speaker 1: so in addition to the drugs and the therapeutics, I
Speaker 1: wanted to ask about another method um for example, contact tracing,
Speaker 1: and especially now with the exponential growth rate of cases
Speaker 1: in the US, is contact tracing, in your opinion, even possible?
Speaker 1: I mean, how effective is this as as a method
Speaker 1: of let's say, approaching this pandemic or attempting to send
Speaker 1: the further spread of COVID nineteen. Contact tracing is a
Speaker 1: challenge even in good times. It requires an awful lot
Speaker 1: of effort, both on the part of the government or
Speaker 1: the public health agency that's doing the contact tracing, and
Speaker 1: it requires an awful lot from the people who have
Speaker 1: been infected in terms of sharing where they've been and
Speaker 1: then it also takes a lot of openness on the
Speaker 1: part of the people who are getting the information that
Speaker 1: they might have been exposed. And we have seen over
Speaker 1: and over again in our country that there is reluctance
Speaker 1: on every single part of this tryad that will have
Speaker 1: to be overcome in order to make contract tracing rise
Speaker 1: to the level of its potential promise. We're seeing in
Speaker 1: some states contact tracing isn't even being done. They're asking
Speaker 1: people to let their own sources, to let their own
Speaker 1: contacts know that they're infected. And where I am sitting,
Speaker 1: we're hearing a lot of people are saying, well, I
Speaker 1: know that I've been exposed, but I feel fine, and
Speaker 1: I don't think that I've got it. So people are
Speaker 1: still going out and living their lives. Perhaps are being
Speaker 1: a little bit more careful in terms of wearing masks
Speaker 1: and social distancing, but they're certainly not quarantining in their
Speaker 1: houses for fourteen days the way that people have originally
Speaker 1: been asked. And we've heard over and over again that
Speaker 1: a lot of people aren't even willing to answer their
Speaker 1: phones for the health department. So if you don't know,
Speaker 1: you are potentially exposed, or you know you're exposed and
Speaker 1: you're not willing to do anything about it, or you
Speaker 1: know you're positive and you don't know everybody you might
Speaker 1: have been in contact with. It is just a recipe
Speaker 1: for disaster. So I am not personally hopeful about the
Speaker 1: ability for contact tracing to make a significant difference in
Speaker 1: this outbreak. Maybe I'm pessimistic. Contact tracing works best when
Speaker 1: you have a limited number of cases. Are you have,
Speaker 1: you know, clusters of significant numbers of cases linked to
Speaker 1: you know, certain locations in certain places like a meatpacking
Speaker 1: plant or a cruise ship or you know, a big wedding.
Speaker 1: But when you have cases that are just all over
Speaker 1: the place, linked to all sorts of gatherings and use numbers,
Speaker 1: if you or I get a case, you know it
Speaker 1: could be from all and we're we've been out and about,
Speaker 1: it could be from all sorts of contacts. That makes
Speaker 1: contact tracing, you know, next to impossible. So it's a
Speaker 1: very difficult situation we're in right now, with spread this
Speaker 1: widespread in many parts of the country. That makes contract tracing,
Speaker 1: you know, so much more difficult. So we can't forget
Speaker 1: about the political angle to this pandemic. President elect Biden
Speaker 1: has already announced a COVID nineteen task force, And so
Speaker 1: how do you think the Biden administration hopes to change
Speaker 1: the course of the US's response to COVID nineteen. In
Speaker 1: President elect Biden really did run an awful lot of
Speaker 1: his campaign based on how to manage the coronavirus outbreak.
Speaker 1: It's clear that he wants to lead from the front
Speaker 1: with a national approach to everything from testing, to tracing,
Speaker 1: to masking, to geting states and governors and local public
Speaker 1: health officials the information and the supplies that they need
Speaker 1: in order to get this virus under control. That is
Speaker 1: a huge shift from how President Trump approached the challenge.
Speaker 1: It's going to be some dislocation that happens here as
Speaker 1: each individual states adjusts to President elect Biden's approach. So
Speaker 1: President elect Biden has announced a Coronavirus task Force. The
Speaker 1: three co leads of this panel are David Kessler, Vivic Murphy,
Speaker 1: and Marcella Nunia Smith. They are a very established group
Speaker 1: of leaders. David Kessler was the FDA Commissioner appointed by
Speaker 1: President George Herbert Walker Bush back in. Vivic Murphy was
Speaker 1: the former surgeon general Marcella Nunia Smith is the founding
Speaker 1: director of the Equity Research and Innovation Center at Yale
Speaker 1: School of Medicine. So to them are taking a different
Speaker 1: tact when it comes to coronavirus. The other person that's uh,
Speaker 1: we definitely should mention on this task forces Michael Osterholm,
Speaker 1: who is the director the Center for Infectous As These
Speaker 1: Research and Policy the Universe in Minnesota. And he is
Speaker 1: you know, a longstanding uh big thinker, a top expert
Speaker 1: you know on infectious disease and particularly on potential future pandemics.
Speaker 1: And you know, most things that he said about this
Speaker 1: pandemic from the beginning of ben you know, spot on
Speaker 1: as as anyone else in the country. So he is
Speaker 1: a real top expert to have on this panel. Biden
Speaker 1: has already said that he is committed to dramatically increasing
Speaker 1: the number of tests that are available and that are conducted,
Speaker 1: and that are available easily and freely for the American public.
Speaker 1: Knowing whether or not you are infected is going to
Speaker 1: be the best way to help people implement these social distancing,
Speaker 1: non pharmaceutical approaches to getting the virus under control. That
Speaker 1: is something that has to happen very quickly. And it
Speaker 1: has to be an all of government effort where steps
Speaker 1: are made in order to make sure that these tests
Speaker 1: are available to people and that they can get them
Speaker 1: easily and freely, and then they can take action based
Speaker 1: on what they're finding. I personally believe that that will
Speaker 1: be the biggest impact that Biden would be able to
Speaker 1: have on this outbreak. Yeah, I think that on vaccines,
Speaker 1: you know that that's one era of Biden and Trump
Speaker 1: aren't that far apart. They're all far vaccines. I think
Speaker 1: a Biden administration might try to just enhance the public
Speaker 1: trust in a vaccine with some additional reviews, but that
Speaker 1: probably you know, wouldn't make an enormous difference and the
Speaker 1: time from the vaccine. They just do some things to
Speaker 1: have some additions, have some additional scientific review to make
Speaker 1: increased confidence in the vaccine and increase confidence that is
Speaker 1: not political interference. But basically, you know, the FDA has
Speaker 1: already been moving in that direction even under the Trump administration,
Speaker 1: and so that vaccine timeline probably there isn't an enormous
Speaker 1: difference between the administrations because basically, once vaccine seeing this
Speaker 1: effective and safe, there's going to be tremendous incentive to
Speaker 1: get them out as quickly as possible, and the endgame there,
Speaker 1: it's just going to be how efficient is the distribution system,
Speaker 1: you know, in terms of the rest of the virus
Speaker 1: and social distancing. I think, you know, Biden administration certainly
Speaker 1: will make much anymore of an effort to have you know,
Speaker 1: broader national policies and our guidelines, you know, on what
Speaker 1: to do in terms of social distancing and mask wearing. Biden,
Speaker 1: I'm sure I'll use the bully pulpit to promote whatever
Speaker 1: his recommendations are, and you know, and people follow that
Speaker 1: that could help. There's no doubt about it. President Biden
Speaker 1: might move to a nationwide mask mandate. President Biden might
Speaker 1: move towards nationwide shutdowns, restrictions, recommendations that would further these
Speaker 1: non pharmaceutical interventions, all of these things that we have
Speaker 1: not seen President Trump being willing or wanting to do.
Speaker 1: President Trump's focus on reopening the economy will almost definitely
Speaker 1: be dialed back under President Biden. You know, we've been
Speaker 1: talking about what had been projected for the fall that
Speaker 1: certainly seems to be coming to pass. But in terms
Speaker 1: of what public health officials are looking ahead to the
Speaker 1: end of the beginning of have projections changed at all
Speaker 1: And what are we to expect now in the coming
Speaker 1: weeks and months. Well, public health authorities, you know, expect
Speaker 1: this to be rough next few months in terms of coronavirus,
Speaker 1: because what you're seeing in the northern parts of the country,
Speaker 1: such as Wisconsin that had got the cold is whether
Speaker 1: first that's gonna increasingly those rates the potential to spread
Speaker 1: to the rest of the country. That means, you know,
Speaker 1: we're gonna have to make it through this winter essentially
Speaker 1: on social disc and seeing mass wearing and cleanliness, you know,
Speaker 1: other basic measures alone and perhaps with some help from
Speaker 1: some of these antibody drugs, but even those will be
Speaker 1: in very very short supply, so you know, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be it's gonna be a rough, difficult, you know, a winter,
Speaker 1: and we have to kind of, you know, I think,
Speaker 1: hunker down for it. Public health officials are saying that
Speaker 1: we're going to see these rising rates continue for at
Speaker 1: least the rest of November and December, and then they're
Speaker 1: saying that things might start coming down, that November and
Speaker 1: December are going to be really bad. But in all honesty,
Speaker 1: I personally don't see the change coming. The way that
Speaker 1: the virus works. We all know the way the virus works.
Speaker 1: It goes from one person to the next, and as
Speaker 1: long as there are vulnerable hosts to get infected, the
Speaker 1: virus will continue to pass from person to person. And
Speaker 1: the number of people while horrifying at ten million infections
Speaker 1: in the United States, you have to remember we have
Speaker 1: three hundred and thirty million people here. We're talking about
Speaker 1: her immunity at the six level. Even if you made
Speaker 1: it really simple and low for the math and said
Speaker 1: people have to be infected in order to reduce the risk,
Speaker 1: that's still a hundred and sixty five million people. There's
Speaker 1: millions and millions of people who are out there who
Speaker 1: are vulnerable to this virus. It's become clear in recent
Speaker 1: ones is that the vast, vast majority of the US
Speaker 1: population is still vulnerable to this virus. Uh. There was
Speaker 1: a study out the other day that estimated perhaps of
Speaker 1: people in New York City had been exposed to virus.
Speaker 1: So that's New York City is one of the most
Speaker 1: heavily exposed parts of the country to the virus because
Speaker 1: of the just the incredible epidemic it had. You know,
Speaker 1: early on. It started very early in rage for in
Speaker 1: April and early May until it was finally gotten under control.
Speaker 1: But even there in this dense, crowded part of the
Speaker 1: country is still only that's really saying something about, you know,
Speaker 1: the low levels of much lower levels likely in the
Speaker 1: rest of the country. So most people, you know, are
Speaker 1: still vulnerable and there's just a lot of book could
Speaker 1: spread to Still when we're talking about case rates of
Speaker 1: a hundred thousand new cases a day, just remember the
Speaker 1: reports of hospitalizations and deaths. Those are those are lagging indicators.
Speaker 1: Those lagged that a lot the death reports are several
Speaker 1: weeks behind that, it looks like according to the data
Speaker 1: from the COVID Tracking Project and all time peak offer
Speaker 1: hospitalizations and the whole pandemic, so that it's really really worrisome.
Speaker 1: The one good thing is that intensive care units and
Speaker 1: hospitals are better at keeping people alive. Now there's better care,
Speaker 1: So the death rate has gone down because of things
Speaker 1: like the steroid decks of method zone and just generally
Speaker 1: better hospital care. With this many people who are still
Speaker 1: potentially vulnerable to the virus, we do know that we
Speaker 1: can flatten the curb and we can get the virus
Speaker 1: under control with our social distancing efforts. Because we've done
Speaker 1: that already, we know that it can be done, but
Speaker 1: think about what we had to do in order for
Speaker 1: that to happen. My expectation is that we're going to
Speaker 1: continue seeing these cases increase until we start seeing being
Speaker 1: some pretty substantial lockdowns. And I think that is something
Speaker 1: that public health officials and politicians have not been willing
Speaker 1: to say. But in my mind, I think that we're
Speaker 1: either going to accept a phenomenal number of deaths and
Speaker 1: increasing cases, or we're all going to spend a pretty
Speaker 1: significant amount of our time inside our houses again this winter.
Speaker 1: What do you think, Bob Right? I mean, if you
Speaker 1: look at Europe, a lot of countries in Europe there
Speaker 1: are already, you know, reimposing various types of lockdowns, somewhat temporary,
Speaker 1: and they may they vary from country to country, but
Speaker 1: you see those happening again in you know, major European
Speaker 1: countries which are ahead of us in terms of the surge,
Speaker 1: and in the US generally speaking, there's been little appetite
Speaker 1: for that. It's even temporary ones that are limited to say,
Speaker 1: you know, bars and restaurants and and and some other
Speaker 1: types of businesses. It just not clear what the appetity is,
Speaker 1: but it does seem clear, you know, without you know,
Speaker 1: some more measure of intense social distancing. Yes, that hospitalizations
Speaker 1: and deaths are going to continue to rise. Unfortunately, Michelle,
Speaker 1: you already mentioned Thanksgiving, but do you think there's a
Speaker 1: willingness in the US to essentially not have a normal
Speaker 1: holiday season? Um, what can we do or what can
Speaker 1: government officials do to try and tamp down some of
Speaker 1: these these more worrying trends that we're seeing With the
Speaker 1: holidays coming up, we already are seeing people say make
Speaker 1: sure that you don't put your loved ones, your family members,
Speaker 1: your friends who are at high risk in a dangerous
Speaker 1: situation over the holidays. You don't want to bring somebody
Speaker 1: who is elderly, overweight, has other health conditions into your
Speaker 1: home and expose them to even small groups of people,
Speaker 1: because you could be transmitting the virus. That's something that
Speaker 1: we're seeing already, because the virus is so widespread across
Speaker 1: the country that even small groups of people are including
Speaker 1: people who are asymptomatically positive and you have no idea
Speaker 1: that they are putting your loved one at risk. That
Speaker 1: being said, just like the point we were making earlier
Speaker 1: that people are tired of social distancing, they're tired of
Speaker 1: wearing masks. They want to get together with their loved ones.
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving is a huge issue in the United States. People
Speaker 1: want to be with their families. That's what this is
Speaker 1: all about. And it's already been you know, months and
Speaker 1: months and months of isolation. People really want to get together.
Speaker 1: It's going to be an interesting phenomenon what people decide
Speaker 1: to do to what extent they want to balance having
Speaker 1: their families and their friends together versus keeping their families
Speaker 1: and friends safe. It's hard to tell what's going to happen,
Speaker 1: you know, during Thanksgiving. I imagine this country is so split,
Speaker 1: uh that that it will just be a different situation
Speaker 1: in different states and among different groups of people, and
Speaker 1: some parts of the country maybe much more cautious and
Speaker 1: other parts of the country. So yes, if there are
Speaker 1: very large Thanksgiving gatherings where people haven't been cautious, that's
Speaker 1: almost certain to increase the spread of the virus. People
Speaker 1: don't tone down their Thanksgiving celebrations and you know, keep
Speaker 1: them to you know, smaller groups than usual, or find
Speaker 1: ways to do effectively, you know, quarantine or isolate ahead
Speaker 1: of those gatherings if they are doing a somewhat bigger gathering,
Speaker 1: especially in cases where there's a lot of interstate travel,
Speaker 1: and that is often what happens around these holidays, is
Speaker 1: that there's interstate travel. People come from different states for
Speaker 1: big Thanksgiving dinner somewhere. But that does the virus is that,
Speaker 1: you know, spreads the virus from one part of the country,
Speaker 1: one county to the next. So the more people you
Speaker 1: have at your Thanksgiving celebration coming from the more disparate
Speaker 1: parts of the state or different states, you know, the
Speaker 1: more likely it is to spread the virus, just by
Speaker 1: the sheer mathematics of the likelihood someone has acquired something
Speaker 1: and they don't know it yet. That was Michelle fig
Speaker 1: worked his and Robert Langrid and that's it for our
Speaker 1: show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one and
Speaker 1: around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and
Speaker 1: if you like the show, please leave us a review
Speaker 1: and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the
Speaker 1: best way to help more listeners find our global reporting.
Speaker 1: The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Topher Foreheads Jordan Gaspoure,
Speaker 1: Magnus Henrickson, and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was
Speaker 1: reported by Michelle Fake Cortes and Robert Langreth. Original music
Speaker 1: by Leo sidrin Our Editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi.
Speaker 1: Special thanks to John Frauher and Creighton Harrison. Francesco Leviy
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.