WEBVTT - Special Edition: The Next Year of the Virus 0:00:01.320 --> 0:00:05.920 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two hundred 0:00:05.960 --> 0:00:09.920 and forty two since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. 0:00:10.920 --> 0:00:14.400 Today we have a special extended edition of the show. 0:00:15.440 --> 0:00:19.079 The coronavirus is on a rampage around the world. The 0:00:19.200 --> 0:00:23.160 view from Europe is especially alarming with the surging cases 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:28.479 and deaths, two levels not seen since last spring, and 0:00:28.560 --> 0:00:32.239 now the US is entering its most dangerous period for 0:00:32.280 --> 0:00:36.639 the virus yet. Case rates are breaking records every day. 0:00:36.960 --> 0:00:41.800 Hospitalizations have reached a level never seen before, and more 0:00:41.800 --> 0:00:46.360 than ten million people have been infected eight months into 0:00:46.400 --> 0:00:50.320 the pandemic. We are looking back at how exactly we 0:00:50.400 --> 0:00:55.120 got here. We're also looking ahead to what's next for 0:00:55.160 --> 0:00:59.840 the outbreak. In a wide ranging interview, I asked reporters 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:03.840 Michelle Fake Cortiz and Robert Langreuth to break down what 0:01:03.880 --> 0:01:07.320 we can expect in the year ahead. They touched on 0:01:07.480 --> 0:01:10.440 everything from the dangers of the coming winter to the 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:14.800 promise of an effective vaccine and the effect of a 0:01:14.920 --> 0:01:25.199 new presidential administration. With ten million cases and exponential growth 0:01:25.319 --> 0:01:29.319 rates in so many areas, where does the US and 0:01:29.920 --> 0:01:34.560 really the world stand in terms of COVID nineteen. We 0:01:34.600 --> 0:01:37.960 are seeing exponential growth in the United States and we're 0:01:38.000 --> 0:01:41.080 trailing Europe still by a little bit here, so we 0:01:41.120 --> 0:01:43.600 can see what our future is going to look like, 0:01:43.959 --> 0:01:48.560 which is continued rising number of cases followed by rising 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:52.919 hospitalizations and deaths as well. It is not looking good 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:57.160 in the United States. We do have some examples from Asia, 0:01:57.200 --> 0:02:00.200 particularly where they have done a much better job of 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:03.480 locking down and keeping the virus under control, but we 0:02:03.520 --> 0:02:06.880 are not seeing that in Europe or the US yet. 0:02:07.280 --> 0:02:10.440 As a result, we are going to need to start 0:02:10.480 --> 0:02:13.919 doing things in order to get the virus under some 0:02:14.040 --> 0:02:18.000 kind of a manageable condition. The challenge is going to 0:02:18.040 --> 0:02:22.480 be that the virus is so widespread across every part 0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:26.280 of the United States and the European continent that the 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:30.960 threats are coming for every person from every angle. So 0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:34.800 it's not just a large gathering of people that puts 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:37.840 you at risk. You might just be at your own 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:42.400 family's Thanksgiving dinner with ten people and one of those 0:02:42.440 --> 0:02:45.120 people can be infected, and there's still no way to 0:02:45.200 --> 0:02:48.799 know on the day whether anyone present at your table 0:02:48.960 --> 0:02:52.120 is infected. So almost everything that we're going to be 0:02:52.160 --> 0:02:56.160 doing throughout this winter is going to be a calculated risk. Yeah, 0:02:56.200 --> 0:03:00.359 I would say that this is exactly what epidemiologists, public 0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:03.680 health experts were worried about that as we go into 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:07.280 the fall months, and as it gets colder and drier 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:09.800 and then and more people spend more time indoors, the 0:03:09.880 --> 0:03:11.600 virus is going to be able to spread more easily. 0:03:11.600 --> 0:03:13.720 In cases, we're going to rise. And this is exactly 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:16.679 the scenario that epidemiologists were worried about or worried that 0:03:16.680 --> 0:03:19.520 would happen. And now it's upon us UH and and 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:23.240 exactly kind of the worst case scenarios are unfolding in 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:27.679 terms of rapid transmission, rapid increase in hospitalizations, and uh 0:03:27.720 --> 0:03:30.600 an increase in deaths. We're closing in rapidly on a 0:03:30.680 --> 0:03:33.440 quarter of a million deaths in the United States and 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:35.680 they're likely to go up from there. So we're just 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:38.200 not in the position that authorities I hope we would 0:03:38.200 --> 0:03:40.280 be on. The hope was that we'd get cases down 0:03:40.440 --> 0:03:42.640 lower over the summer and put us in a better 0:03:42.720 --> 0:03:47.360 position for the fall, but that's not what happened. So 0:03:47.400 --> 0:03:51.360 many hopes have been pinned on the development and availability 0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:55.320 of a safe and effective vaccine to COVID nineteen. And 0:03:55.360 --> 0:03:58.640 of course this week there has been news of Visor's 0:03:58.720 --> 0:04:04.960 vaccine candidate a very high efficacy in its late stage trials. 0:04:05.080 --> 0:04:08.640 So what does this change, if anything, in terms of 0:04:08.640 --> 0:04:12.960 a timeline to a vaccine. This news about Fiser's vaccine 0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:17.839 is quite dramatic. It's much better than anybody was expecting 0:04:17.960 --> 0:04:21.520 early on when they were just starting to develop the immunization. 0:04:21.880 --> 0:04:24.919 Dr Fauci said that it's extraordinary and it's been heralded 0:04:25.040 --> 0:04:27.880 by public health officials across the US and the world. 0:04:28.400 --> 0:04:30.680 The idea that we could have something that's more than 0:04:31.560 --> 0:04:36.200 effective at preventing healthy people from becoming infected with coronavirus 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:40.640 is important not only for its ability to protect people, 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:44.520 but it's also really critical to help people get through 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:49.120 this next period, this very deadly and dangerous winter that 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:51.720 we're looking at, when people need to be inside their houses, 0:04:51.800 --> 0:04:57.160 social distancing, masking, and continuing to take these isolating practices 0:04:57.520 --> 0:05:00.200 that it's hard for everyone to do. But there is 0:05:00.279 --> 0:05:02.400 light at the end of the tunnel here. We do 0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:04.640 know that there looks to be a vaccine that's on 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:07.480 the horizon, and it would be really a shame if 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:11.279 people weren't able to get through this last bit before 0:05:11.320 --> 0:05:15.360 we can start getting some help externally, getting some immunity 0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:19.800 from something other than falling sick. Yeah, So what's important 0:05:19.839 --> 0:05:22.760 to keep in mind though, while this is undeniably promising 0:05:23.160 --> 0:05:25.599 under annimally a good you know, first step in terms 0:05:25.680 --> 0:05:29.159 of initial efficacy, there's just a lot we don't know yet. 0:05:29.400 --> 0:05:32.000 What we have right now is essentially a press release 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:35.240 of top line results. We have no scientific study or 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:39.400 not even presentation of the full scientific data, not even 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:42.320 fire scene of that because the trial is still ongoing. 0:05:42.360 --> 0:05:45.400 So there's lots of questions that we still have less left. 0:05:45.480 --> 0:05:48.520 Or the safety of the vaccine, and even the longevity 0:05:48.560 --> 0:05:51.040 of the effect. We really know next to nothing right now. 0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:54.279 But the duration of the effect of this vaccine or 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:57.159 even you know, how it works in certain certain key 0:05:57.279 --> 0:06:00.320 subsets of the population, like the elderly or people with 0:06:00.320 --> 0:06:03.159 pre existing conditions, we really don't know. You know, what 0:06:03.520 --> 0:06:06.280 is driving this very strong overall ethicacy result, is are 0:06:06.320 --> 0:06:08.920 being driven by younger or older patients. All these key 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:11.760 details we don't know. So there are several steps that 0:06:11.800 --> 0:06:14.640 are going to happen as this unfolds over the next 0:06:14.720 --> 0:06:17.800 several weeks. The first thing next week, we're looking for 0:06:17.880 --> 0:06:21.200 a FIGHTSER to get two months safety follow up data 0:06:21.640 --> 0:06:24.080 of patients in their big trial, and that is a 0:06:24.160 --> 0:06:27.159 key metric that the US Food and Drug Administration is 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:30.599 looking for UH in order to give an emergency authorization 0:06:30.600 --> 0:06:33.479 for any vaccine. Since vaccines are given to millions of 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:36.120 healthy people, it's very very important that vaccines have an 0:06:36.120 --> 0:06:40.040 extraordinarily high level of safety, and so this is UH. 0:06:40.200 --> 0:06:42.440 This is the next crucial data that fighter is going 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:45.360 to get next week, and if that goes as plan, 0:06:45.560 --> 0:06:48.080 then FIGHTSER should be able to apply for emergency use 0:06:48.160 --> 0:06:51.719 authorization to the FDA. And what the FDA says, they're 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:54.000 not going to just review it behind closed doors in 0:06:54.000 --> 0:06:56.719 the back room. In addition to reviewing it internally, they're 0:06:56.720 --> 0:06:59.240 gonna bring all the data into a public hearing with 0:06:59.360 --> 0:07:03.360 a committee of top advisors to the agency. This is 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:07.679 a committee of outside doctors and experts at universities around 0:07:07.680 --> 0:07:09.640 the country that are going to review all the data 0:07:09.680 --> 0:07:12.760 in public to make sure that there's confidence in the 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:16.040 vaccine and the data before any vaccine is granted an 0:07:16.080 --> 0:07:20.119 emergency authorization. And then the final step is there's gonna 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:23.360 once this comes out, which could possibly happen in December, 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:27.000 there's gonna be a huge shortage of supply. There's not 0:07:27.000 --> 0:07:30.240 gonna be remotely near enough supply relative to the population 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:31.920 that could need it. So what's going to happen is 0:07:31.960 --> 0:07:35.640 a second committee of experts outset experts and doctors affiliated 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:38.520 with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That committee 0:07:38.520 --> 0:07:41.640 is gonna take all the data and decide basically who 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:44.760 should get it first. And basically a very small percentage 0:07:44.760 --> 0:07:46.800 of the population is likely to have access to a 0:07:46.880 --> 0:07:49.520 vaccine first. It's probably gonna be either people that are 0:07:49.600 --> 0:07:53.440 very high risk for getting an infection, such as healthcare workers, 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:56.280 or people are very high risk uh if they get 0:07:56.320 --> 0:07:59.440 infect of getting severe complications, such as the elderly. So 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:02.400 will probably be if it gets an emergency authorization, this 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:04.880 vaccine do not you should not expect it to be 0:08:04.920 --> 0:08:07.120 available for you, you and me. This is a vaccine, 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:09.240 it's going to be available for kind a very small 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:18.400 subset of high risk people. Initially, so Bob took us 0:08:18.600 --> 0:08:20.960 up to the point of distribution, but you have to 0:08:21.000 --> 0:08:24.360 realize that that's only the beginning of what's happening with 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:28.960 the vaccine. Especially with many of these vaccines, you need 0:08:28.960 --> 0:08:31.680 those two doses. So you get your first dose, you 0:08:31.720 --> 0:08:34.360 wait three weeks or a month, then you get your 0:08:34.400 --> 0:08:37.640 second dose. So that's going to take some time. And 0:08:37.679 --> 0:08:41.880 then your body has to respond to the vaccine to 0:08:42.040 --> 0:08:45.040 create that immunity inside of you. That's also going to 0:08:45.120 --> 0:08:49.120 take some time. So we're looking to, you know, at 0:08:49.240 --> 0:08:53.440 least the summer before we start seeing substantial numbers of 0:08:53.480 --> 0:08:56.160 people who have been able to get the vaccine, who 0:08:56.160 --> 0:08:58.440 have been able to get the two doses, who have 0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:02.000 had their immune systems ex bosed, and are now creating 0:09:02.080 --> 0:09:05.320 some kind of protection. And of course at that point 0:09:05.360 --> 0:09:08.559 in the summer, we should be seeing a drop naturally 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:11.720 in the amount of viruses out there anyway, especially in 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:14.280 the northern part of the country, as people start going 0:09:14.280 --> 0:09:17.720 back outside. So the bottom line from where I'm sitting 0:09:18.080 --> 0:09:19.920 is that we're not going to know whether or not 0:09:20.000 --> 0:09:24.120 we've got this under control until about this time next year. 0:09:24.280 --> 0:09:28.000 That's where my mind is. In addition to vaccines, of course, 0:09:28.080 --> 0:09:31.760 we are also seeing the development of therapeutics, the approval 0:09:31.760 --> 0:09:35.560 of drugs to treat the symptoms of COVID nineteen. Those 0:09:35.600 --> 0:09:38.960 are in use now increasingly, how do you see these 0:09:39.160 --> 0:09:43.440 playing role? How are these helping if at all? Uh So, 0:09:43.559 --> 0:09:47.120 there's really only one drug that's conclusively shown to like 0:09:47.440 --> 0:09:49.920 lower death rates from the coronavirus, and that's a very 0:09:49.960 --> 0:09:52.760 old drug, decks of metha zone, a steroid drug, and 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:56.520 that's this helps very people, very advanced cases of the 0:09:56.559 --> 0:09:59.959 coronavirus in the I c U who are having trouble breathing. 0:10:00.160 --> 0:10:03.520 And it's a it's a steroid basically suppresses the immune system. 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:06.400 And what is thought that the late stages of the disease, 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:09.160 what really happens is that the outer control immune system 0:10:09.280 --> 0:10:12.000 response to the virus become actually becomes harmful, and that's 0:10:12.000 --> 0:10:13.880 what puts people over the edge and actually kills them 0:10:13.920 --> 0:10:16.600 in the end. So this steroid, this old old drug, 0:10:16.840 --> 0:10:19.720 which is one of the drugs that Donald Trump got 0:10:20.000 --> 0:10:23.440 when he was treated for coronavirus. Thought that this steroid 0:10:23.679 --> 0:10:26.320 can suppress the immune response that helped keep people alive, 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:28.520 and that was showing pretty definitively to lower the death 0:10:28.600 --> 0:10:30.560 rate in the universe of Oxford study. That's the only 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:33.080 drug that's shown to clearly lower the death rate. Now 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:35.720 there's another drug, of course, everyone's heard about ram desiviere 0:10:35.760 --> 0:10:39.559 from Gilliatt Sciences, and that did is the first drug 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:41.960 in the US to officially be fully approved by the 0:10:42.040 --> 0:10:45.520 FDA for the coronavirus. But it's been shown mainly to 0:10:45.920 --> 0:10:49.280 speed up the rate of improvement, the rate people get 0:10:49.320 --> 0:10:51.760 better who are hospitalized. But what it hasn't been shown 0:10:51.800 --> 0:10:55.160 to do, uh is lower the death rate from the coronavirus. 0:10:55.240 --> 0:10:58.400 So even though it gut full approval, it's contribution is 0:10:58.440 --> 0:11:02.199 still and is still controversial over how well it works 0:11:02.200 --> 0:11:04.160 and what it's doing. But it did get full approval 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:06.840 and is a widely used drug even though its role 0:11:06.880 --> 0:11:10.760 is still somewhat controversial. While ramdesivier might not be a 0:11:10.920 --> 0:11:15.760 Lazarous like product, it does help people recover more quickly. 0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:18.120 It does help people get out of the hospital, and 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:21.800 that is something that's worthwhile to have. So, Bob, what's 0:11:21.840 --> 0:11:26.520 happening right now with antibody therapies. Yeah, so, and a 0:11:26.520 --> 0:11:29.440 lot of therapies are very important type of therapy. They 0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:32.760 thought to be a kind of a bridge to a vaccine, 0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:35.200 a bridge together to this very difficult period we're in 0:11:35.320 --> 0:11:37.120 right now, until we get to the point where a 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:41.120 vaccine is widely available and that's why there is excitement 0:11:41.160 --> 0:11:45.360 about that. And the first of these antibody therapies just 0:11:45.720 --> 0:11:48.240 received a earnency authorization from the U S. Food and 0:11:48.280 --> 0:11:51.680 Drug Administration. That's the antibody therapy from Eli Lily that 0:11:51.800 --> 0:11:55.640 was developed in in the collaboration with a Canadian biotech company. 0:11:55.840 --> 0:11:58.440 And basically what it does is if you get it 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:03.080 can get it early enough in your of course the disease, 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:05.000 it can help keep you out of the hospital, keep 0:12:05.040 --> 0:12:07.400 you from going to the emergency room. But basically if 0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:09.520 you take it early, you can help it from progressing 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:11.760 into a more severe case. But you do need to 0:12:11.800 --> 0:12:14.840 get it be treated early on with this to have 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:17.560 an effect. It didn't in a trial. It did not 0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:21.079 work once you're impossibilized patients. That was too late. Uh. 0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:23.920 And the problem we have right now with these there 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:26.880 are these antibodies are very hard to produce and aren't 0:12:26.880 --> 0:12:29.400 going to be quite short supply. Literally was talking about 0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:35.000 shipping out its first doses of this this week and 0:12:35.480 --> 0:12:38.160 that is just not enough, so that that is a 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:42.120 real problem. Nobody anticipated that would be in such bad 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:45.160 shape in terms of coronavirus cases. Yeah, I think a 0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:48.520 few months ago, and so while this therapy helps, there's 0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:50.760 just not enough of it to go around relative to 0:12:50.760 --> 0:12:53.280 the number of people that may benefit from it. I 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:56.280 think that there is a silver lining when we're looking 0:12:56.360 --> 0:13:02.920 at the coronavirus outbreak, which is generally a very black, bleak, 0:13:03.240 --> 0:13:07.560 negative picture right now with rising cases, rising hospitalizations, rising depths, 0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:10.440 and that is that we know an awful lot more 0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:14.440 now about how to treat those people. Not only that 0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:18.679 we actually have things that can make a difference. And 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:23.040 so in addition to the drugs and the therapeutics, I 0:13:23.080 --> 0:13:26.920 wanted to ask about another method um for example, contact tracing, 0:13:27.400 --> 0:13:30.960 and especially now with the exponential growth rate of cases 0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:35.040 in the US, is contact tracing, in your opinion, even possible? 0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:38.360 I mean, how effective is this as as a method 0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:42.200 of let's say, approaching this pandemic or attempting to send 0:13:42.679 --> 0:13:47.040 the further spread of COVID nineteen. Contact tracing is a 0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:53.000 challenge even in good times. It requires an awful lot 0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:58.120 of effort, both on the part of the government or 0:13:58.160 --> 0:14:01.440 the public health agency that's doing the contact tracing, and 0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:04.600 it requires an awful lot from the people who have 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:08.840 been infected in terms of sharing where they've been and 0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:12.000 then it also takes a lot of openness on the 0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:14.600 part of the people who are getting the information that 0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:17.640 they might have been exposed. And we have seen over 0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:20.680 and over again in our country that there is reluctance 0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:26.000 on every single part of this tryad that will have 0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:29.880 to be overcome in order to make contract tracing rise 0:14:29.920 --> 0:14:33.920 to the level of its potential promise. We're seeing in 0:14:33.960 --> 0:14:38.320 some states contact tracing isn't even being done. They're asking 0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:41.480 people to let their own sources, to let their own 0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:45.840 contacts know that they're infected. And where I am sitting, 0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:48.960 we're hearing a lot of people are saying, well, I 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:52.160 know that I've been exposed, but I feel fine, and 0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:55.120 I don't think that I've got it. So people are 0:14:55.160 --> 0:14:58.120 still going out and living their lives. Perhaps are being 0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:00.880 a little bit more careful in terms of wearing masks 0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:03.920 and social distancing, but they're certainly not quarantining in their 0:15:03.920 --> 0:15:06.920 houses for fourteen days the way that people have originally 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:09.920 been asked. And we've heard over and over again that 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:11.920 a lot of people aren't even willing to answer their 0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:15.040 phones for the health department. So if you don't know, 0:15:15.200 --> 0:15:18.720 you are potentially exposed, or you know you're exposed and 0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:21.800 you're not willing to do anything about it, or you 0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:24.560 know you're positive and you don't know everybody you might 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:27.240 have been in contact with. It is just a recipe 0:15:27.280 --> 0:15:32.520 for disaster. So I am not personally hopeful about the 0:15:32.560 --> 0:15:35.800 ability for contact tracing to make a significant difference in 0:15:35.840 --> 0:15:40.400 this outbreak. Maybe I'm pessimistic. Contact tracing works best when 0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:42.320 you have a limited number of cases. Are you have, 0:15:42.360 --> 0:15:45.520 you know, clusters of significant numbers of cases linked to 0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:48.320 you know, certain locations in certain places like a meatpacking 0:15:48.360 --> 0:15:51.560 plant or a cruise ship or you know, a big wedding. 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:54.040 But when you have cases that are just all over 0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:57.040 the place, linked to all sorts of gatherings and use numbers, 0:15:57.520 --> 0:16:00.080 if you or I get a case, you know it 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:02.040 could be from all and we're we've been out and about, 0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:04.280 it could be from all sorts of contacts. That makes 0:16:04.320 --> 0:16:06.600 contact tracing, you know, next to impossible. So it's a 0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:09.600 very difficult situation we're in right now, with spread this 0:16:09.720 --> 0:16:13.200 widespread in many parts of the country. That makes contract tracing, 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:21.160 you know, so much more difficult. So we can't forget 0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:25.480 about the political angle to this pandemic. President elect Biden 0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:29.480 has already announced a COVID nineteen task force, And so 0:16:29.640 --> 0:16:33.680 how do you think the Biden administration hopes to change 0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:38.320 the course of the US's response to COVID nineteen. In 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:43.840 President elect Biden really did run an awful lot of 0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:48.320 his campaign based on how to manage the coronavirus outbreak. 0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:52.280 It's clear that he wants to lead from the front 0:16:52.560 --> 0:16:57.920 with a national approach to everything from testing, to tracing, 0:16:58.360 --> 0:17:03.720 to masking, to geting states and governors and local public 0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:07.160 health officials the information and the supplies that they need 0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:09.440 in order to get this virus under control. That is 0:17:09.480 --> 0:17:15.240 a huge shift from how President Trump approached the challenge. 0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:18.680 It's going to be some dislocation that happens here as 0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:23.520 each individual states adjusts to President elect Biden's approach. So 0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:28.480 President elect Biden has announced a Coronavirus task Force. The 0:17:28.560 --> 0:17:34.520 three co leads of this panel are David Kessler, Vivic Murphy, 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:39.399 and Marcella Nunia Smith. They are a very established group 0:17:39.640 --> 0:17:44.800 of leaders. David Kessler was the FDA Commissioner appointed by 0:17:44.880 --> 0:17:50.840 President George Herbert Walker Bush back in. Vivic Murphy was 0:17:50.960 --> 0:17:55.040 the former surgeon general Marcella Nunia Smith is the founding 0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:58.280 director of the Equity Research and Innovation Center at Yale 0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:01.560 School of Medicine. So to them are taking a different 0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:05.000 tact when it comes to coronavirus. The other person that's uh, 0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:08.480 we definitely should mention on this task forces Michael Osterholm, 0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:11.360 who is the director the Center for Infectous As These 0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:14.480 Research and Policy the Universe in Minnesota. And he is 0:18:14.520 --> 0:18:18.920 you know, a longstanding uh big thinker, a top expert 0:18:19.000 --> 0:18:23.240 you know on infectious disease and particularly on potential future pandemics. 0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:25.919 And you know, most things that he said about this 0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:28.840 pandemic from the beginning of ben you know, spot on 0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:31.280 as as anyone else in the country. So he is 0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:34.159 a real top expert to have on this panel. Biden 0:18:34.240 --> 0:18:38.760 has already said that he is committed to dramatically increasing 0:18:38.840 --> 0:18:41.760 the number of tests that are available and that are conducted, 0:18:42.080 --> 0:18:46.720 and that are available easily and freely for the American public. 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:50.520 Knowing whether or not you are infected is going to 0:18:50.560 --> 0:18:56.280 be the best way to help people implement these social distancing, 0:18:56.440 --> 0:19:00.560 non pharmaceutical approaches to getting the virus under control. That 0:19:00.720 --> 0:19:04.320 is something that has to happen very quickly. And it 0:19:04.440 --> 0:19:08.680 has to be an all of government effort where steps 0:19:08.680 --> 0:19:12.560 are made in order to make sure that these tests 0:19:12.600 --> 0:19:15.320 are available to people and that they can get them 0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:18.440 easily and freely, and then they can take action based 0:19:18.440 --> 0:19:21.200 on what they're finding. I personally believe that that will 0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:24.280 be the biggest impact that Biden would be able to 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:30.000 have on this outbreak. Yeah, I think that on vaccines, 0:19:30.119 --> 0:19:32.719 you know that that's one era of Biden and Trump 0:19:32.840 --> 0:19:35.920 aren't that far apart. They're all far vaccines. I think 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:38.960 a Biden administration might try to just enhance the public 0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:42.600 trust in a vaccine with some additional reviews, but that 0:19:42.760 --> 0:19:45.320 probably you know, wouldn't make an enormous difference and the 0:19:45.359 --> 0:19:47.720 time from the vaccine. They just do some things to 0:19:47.800 --> 0:19:51.160 have some additions, have some additional scientific review to make 0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:53.879 increased confidence in the vaccine and increase confidence that is 0:19:53.920 --> 0:19:57.240 not political interference. But basically, you know, the FDA has 0:19:57.280 --> 0:19:59.960 already been moving in that direction even under the Trump administration, 0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:03.240 and so that vaccine timeline probably there isn't an enormous 0:20:03.280 --> 0:20:07.200 difference between the administrations because basically, once vaccine seeing this 0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:09.919 effective and safe, there's going to be tremendous incentive to 0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:13.600 get them out as quickly as possible, and the endgame there, 0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:16.840 it's just going to be how efficient is the distribution system, 0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:18.600 you know, in terms of the rest of the virus 0:20:18.600 --> 0:20:22.320 and social distancing. I think, you know, Biden administration certainly 0:20:22.359 --> 0:20:24.919 will make much anymore of an effort to have you know, 0:20:25.280 --> 0:20:29.680 broader national policies and our guidelines, you know, on what 0:20:29.760 --> 0:20:32.920 to do in terms of social distancing and mask wearing. Biden, 0:20:32.960 --> 0:20:35.600 I'm sure I'll use the bully pulpit to promote whatever 0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:38.440 his recommendations are, and you know, and people follow that 0:20:38.440 --> 0:20:42.080 that could help. There's no doubt about it. President Biden 0:20:42.640 --> 0:20:46.560 might move to a nationwide mask mandate. President Biden might 0:20:46.720 --> 0:20:56.080 move towards nationwide shutdowns, restrictions, recommendations that would further these 0:20:56.119 --> 0:20:59.600 non pharmaceutical interventions, all of these things that we have 0:20:59.680 --> 0:21:02.639 not seen President Trump being willing or wanting to do. 0:21:03.119 --> 0:21:07.600 President Trump's focus on reopening the economy will almost definitely 0:21:07.640 --> 0:21:16.640 be dialed back under President Biden. You know, we've been 0:21:16.640 --> 0:21:19.399 talking about what had been projected for the fall that 0:21:19.560 --> 0:21:23.040 certainly seems to be coming to pass. But in terms 0:21:23.080 --> 0:21:26.239 of what public health officials are looking ahead to the 0:21:26.359 --> 0:21:31.600 end of the beginning of have projections changed at all 0:21:31.800 --> 0:21:35.080 And what are we to expect now in the coming 0:21:35.119 --> 0:21:40.160 weeks and months. Well, public health authorities, you know, expect 0:21:40.200 --> 0:21:43.800 this to be rough next few months in terms of coronavirus, 0:21:43.960 --> 0:21:46.760 because what you're seeing in the northern parts of the country, 0:21:46.800 --> 0:21:48.720 such as Wisconsin that had got the cold is whether 0:21:49.160 --> 0:21:53.280 first that's gonna increasingly those rates the potential to spread 0:21:53.400 --> 0:21:55.879 to the rest of the country. That means, you know, 0:21:55.880 --> 0:21:58.920 we're gonna have to make it through this winter essentially 0:21:59.000 --> 0:22:02.840 on social disc and seeing mass wearing and cleanliness, you know, 0:22:02.920 --> 0:22:06.080 other basic measures alone and perhaps with some help from 0:22:06.080 --> 0:22:08.760 some of these antibody drugs, but even those will be 0:22:08.800 --> 0:22:11.640 in very very short supply, so you know, it's gonna 0:22:11.680 --> 0:22:14.200 be it's gonna be a rough, difficult, you know, a winter, 0:22:14.840 --> 0:22:16.720 and we have to kind of, you know, I think, 0:22:16.880 --> 0:22:19.960 hunker down for it. Public health officials are saying that 0:22:20.000 --> 0:22:22.840 we're going to see these rising rates continue for at 0:22:22.920 --> 0:22:26.160 least the rest of November and December, and then they're 0:22:26.200 --> 0:22:29.119 saying that things might start coming down, that November and 0:22:29.160 --> 0:22:31.680 December are going to be really bad. But in all honesty, 0:22:31.920 --> 0:22:36.439 I personally don't see the change coming. The way that 0:22:36.520 --> 0:22:39.320 the virus works. We all know the way the virus works. 0:22:39.600 --> 0:22:41.760 It goes from one person to the next, and as 0:22:41.800 --> 0:22:45.280 long as there are vulnerable hosts to get infected, the 0:22:45.400 --> 0:22:48.280 virus will continue to pass from person to person. And 0:22:48.320 --> 0:22:52.480 the number of people while horrifying at ten million infections 0:22:52.520 --> 0:22:54.840 in the United States, you have to remember we have 0:22:55.000 --> 0:22:58.880 three hundred and thirty million people here. We're talking about 0:22:58.960 --> 0:23:03.040 her immunity at the six level. Even if you made 0:23:03.040 --> 0:23:05.520 it really simple and low for the math and said 0:23:06.560 --> 0:23:09.920 people have to be infected in order to reduce the risk, 0:23:10.359 --> 0:23:14.359 that's still a hundred and sixty five million people. There's 0:23:14.840 --> 0:23:17.040 millions and millions of people who are out there who 0:23:17.040 --> 0:23:20.600 are vulnerable to this virus. It's become clear in recent 0:23:20.640 --> 0:23:22.760 ones is that the vast, vast majority of the US 0:23:22.800 --> 0:23:26.119 population is still vulnerable to this virus. Uh. There was 0:23:26.160 --> 0:23:29.840 a study out the other day that estimated perhaps of 0:23:29.920 --> 0:23:32.040 people in New York City had been exposed to virus. 0:23:32.040 --> 0:23:34.040