1 00:00:01,320 --> 00:00:05,920 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two hundred 2 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: and forty two since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. 3 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:14,400 Speaker 1: Today we have a special extended edition of the show. 4 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:19,079 Speaker 1: The coronavirus is on a rampage around the world. The 5 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 1: view from Europe is especially alarming with the surging cases 6 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:28,479 Speaker 1: and deaths, two levels not seen since last spring, and 7 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:32,239 Speaker 1: now the US is entering its most dangerous period for 8 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:36,639 Speaker 1: the virus yet. Case rates are breaking records every day. 9 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: Hospitalizations have reached a level never seen before, and more 10 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: than ten million people have been infected eight months into 11 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 1: the pandemic. We are looking back at how exactly we 12 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 1: got here. We're also looking ahead to what's next for 13 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 1: the outbreak. In a wide ranging interview, I asked reporters 14 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 1: Michelle Fake Cortiz and Robert Langreuth to break down what 15 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:07,320 Speaker 1: we can expect in the year ahead. They touched on 16 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: everything from the dangers of the coming winter to the 17 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 1: promise of an effective vaccine and the effect of a 18 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:25,199 Speaker 1: new presidential administration. With ten million cases and exponential growth 19 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:29,319 Speaker 1: rates in so many areas, where does the US and 20 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 1: really the world stand in terms of COVID nineteen. We 21 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:37,960 Speaker 1: are seeing exponential growth in the United States and we're 22 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 1: trailing Europe still by a little bit here, so we 23 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 1: can see what our future is going to look like, 24 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 1: which is continued rising number of cases followed by rising 25 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:52,919 Speaker 1: hospitalizations and deaths as well. It is not looking good 26 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 1: in the United States. We do have some examples from Asia, 27 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 1: particularly where they have done a much better job of 28 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 1: locking down and keeping the virus under control, but we 29 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: are not seeing that in Europe or the US yet. 30 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: As a result, we are going to need to start 31 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:13,919 Speaker 1: doing things in order to get the virus under some 32 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 1: kind of a manageable condition. The challenge is going to 33 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 1: be that the virus is so widespread across every part 34 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 1: of the United States and the European continent that the 35 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: threats are coming for every person from every angle. So 36 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 1: it's not just a large gathering of people that puts 37 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 1: you at risk. You might just be at your own 38 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 1: family's Thanksgiving dinner with ten people and one of those 39 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 1: people can be infected, and there's still no way to 40 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:48,799 Speaker 1: know on the day whether anyone present at your table 41 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 1: is infected. So almost everything that we're going to be 42 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 1: doing throughout this winter is going to be a calculated risk. Yeah, 43 00:02:56,200 --> 00:03:00,359 Speaker 1: I would say that this is exactly what epidemiologists, public 44 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 1: health experts were worried about that as we go into 45 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 1: the fall months, and as it gets colder and drier 46 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 1: and then and more people spend more time indoors, the 47 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 1: virus is going to be able to spread more easily. 48 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: In cases, we're going to rise. And this is exactly 49 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,679 Speaker 1: the scenario that epidemiologists were worried about or worried that 50 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:19,520 Speaker 1: would happen. And now it's upon us UH and and 51 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 1: exactly kind of the worst case scenarios are unfolding in 52 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:27,679 Speaker 1: terms of rapid transmission, rapid increase in hospitalizations, and uh 53 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 1: an increase in deaths. We're closing in rapidly on a 54 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: quarter of a million deaths in the United States and 55 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 1: they're likely to go up from there. So we're just 56 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 1: not in the position that authorities I hope we would 57 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: be on. The hope was that we'd get cases down 58 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 1: lower over the summer and put us in a better 59 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 1: position for the fall, but that's not what happened. So 60 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 1: many hopes have been pinned on the development and availability 61 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 1: of a safe and effective vaccine to COVID nineteen. And 62 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 1: of course this week there has been news of Visor's 63 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 1: vaccine candidate a very high efficacy in its late stage trials. 64 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: So what does this change, if anything, in terms of 65 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 1: a timeline to a vaccine. This news about Fiser's vaccine 66 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:17,839 Speaker 1: is quite dramatic. It's much better than anybody was expecting 67 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: early on when they were just starting to develop the immunization. 68 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:24,919 Speaker 1: Dr Fauci said that it's extraordinary and it's been heralded 69 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 1: by public health officials across the US and the world. 70 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 1: The idea that we could have something that's more than 71 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 1: effective at preventing healthy people from becoming infected with coronavirus 72 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 1: is important not only for its ability to protect people, 73 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 1: but it's also really critical to help people get through 74 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 1: this next period, this very deadly and dangerous winter that 75 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,720 Speaker 1: we're looking at, when people need to be inside their houses, 76 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:57,160 Speaker 1: social distancing, masking, and continuing to take these isolating practices 77 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:00,200 Speaker 1: that it's hard for everyone to do. But there is 78 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:02,400 Speaker 1: light at the end of the tunnel here. We do 79 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 1: know that there looks to be a vaccine that's on 80 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,480 Speaker 1: the horizon, and it would be really a shame if 81 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:11,279 Speaker 1: people weren't able to get through this last bit before 82 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 1: we can start getting some help externally, getting some immunity 83 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:19,800 Speaker 1: from something other than falling sick. Yeah, So what's important 84 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 1: to keep in mind though, while this is undeniably promising 85 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:25,599 Speaker 1: under annimally a good you know, first step in terms 86 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:29,159 Speaker 1: of initial efficacy, there's just a lot we don't know yet. 87 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 1: What we have right now is essentially a press release 88 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 1: of top line results. We have no scientific study or 89 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: not even presentation of the full scientific data, not even 90 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 1: fire scene of that because the trial is still ongoing. 91 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: So there's lots of questions that we still have less left. 92 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 1: Or the safety of the vaccine, and even the longevity 93 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 1: of the effect. We really know next to nothing right now. 94 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:54,279 Speaker 1: But the duration of the effect of this vaccine or 95 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,159 Speaker 1: even you know, how it works in certain certain key 96 00:05:57,279 --> 00:06:00,320 Speaker 1: subsets of the population, like the elderly or people with 97 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:03,159 Speaker 1: pre existing conditions, we really don't know. You know, what 98 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,280 Speaker 1: is driving this very strong overall ethicacy result, is are 99 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:08,920 Speaker 1: being driven by younger or older patients. All these key 100 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 1: details we don't know. So there are several steps that 101 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 1: are going to happen as this unfolds over the next 102 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 1: several weeks. The first thing next week, we're looking for 103 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: a FIGHTSER to get two months safety follow up data 104 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 1: of patients in their big trial, and that is a 105 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:27,159 Speaker 1: key metric that the US Food and Drug Administration is 106 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:30,599 Speaker 1: looking for UH in order to give an emergency authorization 107 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 1: for any vaccine. Since vaccines are given to millions of 108 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 1: healthy people, it's very very important that vaccines have an 109 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:40,040 Speaker 1: extraordinarily high level of safety, and so this is UH. 110 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 1: This is the next crucial data that fighter is going 111 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:45,360 Speaker 1: to get next week, and if that goes as plan, 112 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 1: then FIGHTSER should be able to apply for emergency use 113 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:51,719 Speaker 1: authorization to the FDA. And what the FDA says, they're 114 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 1: not going to just review it behind closed doors in 115 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:56,719 Speaker 1: the back room. In addition to reviewing it internally, they're 116 00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 1: gonna bring all the data into a public hearing with 117 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:03,360 Speaker 1: a committee of top advisors to the agency. This is 118 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:07,679 Speaker 1: a committee of outside doctors and experts at universities around 119 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: the country that are going to review all the data 120 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 1: in public to make sure that there's confidence in the 121 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: vaccine and the data before any vaccine is granted an 122 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:20,119 Speaker 1: emergency authorization. And then the final step is there's gonna 123 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 1: once this comes out, which could possibly happen in December, 124 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 1: there's gonna be a huge shortage of supply. There's not 125 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 1: gonna be remotely near enough supply relative to the population 126 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 1: that could need it. So what's going to happen is 127 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 1: a second committee of experts outset experts and doctors affiliated 128 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 1: with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That committee 129 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 1: is gonna take all the data and decide basically who 130 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 1: should get it first. And basically a very small percentage 131 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 1: of the population is likely to have access to a 132 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:49,520 Speaker 1: vaccine first. It's probably gonna be either people that are 133 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 1: very high risk for getting an infection, such as healthcare workers, 134 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 1: or people are very high risk uh if they get 135 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 1: infect of getting severe complications, such as the elderly. So 136 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 1: will probably be if it gets an emergency authorization, this 137 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 1: vaccine do not you should not expect it to be 138 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 1: available for you, you and me. This is a vaccine, 139 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,240 Speaker 1: it's going to be available for kind a very small 140 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 1: subset of high risk people. Initially, so Bob took us 141 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 1: up to the point of distribution, but you have to 142 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 1: realize that that's only the beginning of what's happening with 143 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 1: the vaccine. Especially with many of these vaccines, you need 144 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 1: those two doses. So you get your first dose, you 145 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 1: wait three weeks or a month, then you get your 146 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 1: second dose. So that's going to take some time. And 147 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 1: then your body has to respond to the vaccine to 148 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 1: create that immunity inside of you. That's also going to 149 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 1: take some time. So we're looking to, you know, at 150 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 1: least the summer before we start seeing substantial numbers of 151 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 1: people who have been able to get the vaccine, who 152 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:58,440 Speaker 1: have been able to get the two doses, who have 153 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 1: had their immune systems ex bosed, and are now creating 154 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:05,320 Speaker 1: some kind of protection. And of course at that point 155 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:08,559 Speaker 1: in the summer, we should be seeing a drop naturally 156 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 1: in the amount of viruses out there anyway, especially in 157 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 1: the northern part of the country, as people start going 158 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 1: back outside. So the bottom line from where I'm sitting 159 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 1: is that we're not going to know whether or not 160 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 1: we've got this under control until about this time next year. 161 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 1: That's where my mind is. In addition to vaccines, of course, 162 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 1: we are also seeing the development of therapeutics, the approval 163 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:35,560 Speaker 1: of drugs to treat the symptoms of COVID nineteen. Those 164 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 1: are in use now increasingly, how do you see these 165 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:43,440 Speaker 1: playing role? How are these helping if at all? Uh So, 166 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 1: there's really only one drug that's conclusively shown to like 167 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 1: lower death rates from the coronavirus, and that's a very 168 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 1: old drug, decks of metha zone, a steroid drug, and 169 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:56,520 Speaker 1: that's this helps very people, very advanced cases of the 170 00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:59,959 Speaker 1: coronavirus in the I c U who are having trouble breathing. 171 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 1: And it's a it's a steroid basically suppresses the immune system. 172 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 1: And what is thought that the late stages of the disease, 173 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 1: what really happens is that the outer control immune system 174 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 1: response to the virus become actually becomes harmful, and that's 175 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 1: what puts people over the edge and actually kills them 176 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:16,600 Speaker 1: in the end. So this steroid, this old old drug, 177 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 1: which is one of the drugs that Donald Trump got 178 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:23,440 Speaker 1: when he was treated for coronavirus. Thought that this steroid 179 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:26,320 Speaker 1: can suppress the immune response that helped keep people alive, 180 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 1: and that was showing pretty definitively to lower the death 181 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:30,560 Speaker 1: rate in the universe of Oxford study. That's the only 182 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: drug that's shown to clearly lower the death rate. Now 183 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 1: there's another drug, of course, everyone's heard about ram desiviere 184 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:39,559 Speaker 1: from Gilliatt Sciences, and that did is the first drug 185 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 1: in the US to officially be fully approved by the 186 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 1: FDA for the coronavirus. But it's been shown mainly to 187 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 1: speed up the rate of improvement, the rate people get 188 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: better who are hospitalized. But what it hasn't been shown 189 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:55,160 Speaker 1: to do, uh is lower the death rate from the coronavirus. 190 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 1: So even though it gut full approval, it's contribution is 191 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:02,199 Speaker 1: still and is still controversial over how well it works 192 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 1: and what it's doing. But it did get full approval 193 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 1: and is a widely used drug even though its role 194 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 1: is still somewhat controversial. While ramdesivier might not be a 195 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 1: Lazarous like product, it does help people recover more quickly. 196 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 1: It does help people get out of the hospital, and 197 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,800 Speaker 1: that is something that's worthwhile to have. So, Bob, what's 198 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 1: happening right now with antibody therapies. Yeah, so, and a 199 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:29,440 Speaker 1: lot of therapies are very important type of therapy. They 200 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 1: thought to be a kind of a bridge to a vaccine, 201 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:35,200 Speaker 1: a bridge together to this very difficult period we're in 202 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 1: right now, until we get to the point where a 203 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 1: vaccine is widely available and that's why there is excitement 204 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 1: about that. And the first of these antibody therapies just 205 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:48,240 Speaker 1: received a earnency authorization from the U S. Food and 206 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:51,680 Speaker 1: Drug Administration. That's the antibody therapy from Eli Lily that 207 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 1: was developed in in the collaboration with a Canadian biotech company. 208 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:58,440 Speaker 1: And basically what it does is if you get it 209 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 1: can get it early enough in your of course the disease, 210 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 1: it can help keep you out of the hospital, keep 211 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 1: you from going to the emergency room. But basically if 212 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: you take it early, you can help it from progressing 213 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 1: into a more severe case. But you do need to 214 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: get it be treated early on with this to have 215 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 1: an effect. It didn't in a trial. It did not 216 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:21,079 Speaker 1: work once you're impossibilized patients. That was too late. Uh. 217 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 1: And the problem we have right now with these there 218 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 1: are these antibodies are very hard to produce and aren't 219 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 1: going to be quite short supply. Literally was talking about 220 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 1: shipping out its first doses of this this week and 221 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 1: that is just not enough, so that that is a 222 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 1: real problem. Nobody anticipated that would be in such bad 223 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:45,160 Speaker 1: shape in terms of coronavirus cases. Yeah, I think a 224 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 1: few months ago, and so while this therapy helps, there's 225 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 1: just not enough of it to go around relative to 226 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 1: the number of people that may benefit from it. I 227 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 1: think that there is a silver lining when we're looking 228 00:12:56,360 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 1: at the coronavirus outbreak, which is generally a very black, bleak, 229 00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:07,560 Speaker 1: negative picture right now with rising cases, rising hospitalizations, rising depths, 230 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:10,440 Speaker 1: and that is that we know an awful lot more 231 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 1: now about how to treat those people. Not only that 232 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:18,679 Speaker 1: we actually have things that can make a difference. And 233 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 1: so in addition to the drugs and the therapeutics, I 234 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 1: wanted to ask about another method um for example, contact tracing, 235 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:30,960 Speaker 1: and especially now with the exponential growth rate of cases 236 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: in the US, is contact tracing, in your opinion, even possible? 237 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 1: I mean, how effective is this as as a method 238 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:42,200 Speaker 1: of let's say, approaching this pandemic or attempting to send 239 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 1: the further spread of COVID nineteen. Contact tracing is a 240 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 1: challenge even in good times. It requires an awful lot 241 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 1: of effort, both on the part of the government or 242 00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:01,440 Speaker 1: the public health agency that's doing the contact tracing, and 243 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 1: it requires an awful lot from the people who have 244 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:08,840 Speaker 1: been infected in terms of sharing where they've been and 245 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 1: then it also takes a lot of openness on the 246 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 1: part of the people who are getting the information that 247 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 1: they might have been exposed. And we have seen over 248 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 1: and over again in our country that there is reluctance 249 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:26,000 Speaker 1: on every single part of this tryad that will have 250 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 1: to be overcome in order to make contract tracing rise 251 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 1: to the level of its potential promise. We're seeing in 252 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 1: some states contact tracing isn't even being done. They're asking 253 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:41,480 Speaker 1: people to let their own sources, to let their own 254 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 1: contacts know that they're infected. And where I am sitting, 255 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: we're hearing a lot of people are saying, well, I 256 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 1: know that I've been exposed, but I feel fine, and 257 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 1: I don't think that I've got it. So people are 258 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 1: still going out and living their lives. Perhaps are being 259 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 1: a little bit more careful in terms of wearing masks 260 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 1: and social distancing, but they're certainly not quarantining in their 261 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 1: houses for fourteen days the way that people have originally 262 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 1: been asked. And we've heard over and over again that 263 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 1: a lot of people aren't even willing to answer their 264 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 1: phones for the health department. So if you don't know, 265 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 1: you are potentially exposed, or you know you're exposed and 266 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:21,800 Speaker 1: you're not willing to do anything about it, or you 267 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 1: know you're positive and you don't know everybody you might 268 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 1: have been in contact with. It is just a recipe 269 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 1: for disaster. So I am not personally hopeful about the 270 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 1: ability for contact tracing to make a significant difference in 271 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 1: this outbreak. Maybe I'm pessimistic. Contact tracing works best when 272 00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 1: you have a limited number of cases. Are you have, 273 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: you know, clusters of significant numbers of cases linked to 274 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 1: you know, certain locations in certain places like a meatpacking 275 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 1: plant or a cruise ship or you know, a big wedding. 276 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 1: But when you have cases that are just all over 277 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: the place, linked to all sorts of gatherings and use numbers, 278 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,080 Speaker 1: if you or I get a case, you know it 279 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 1: could be from all and we're we've been out and about, 280 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 1: it could be from all sorts of contacts. That makes 281 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 1: contact tracing, you know, next to impossible. So it's a 282 00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 1: very difficult situation we're in right now, with spread this 283 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 1: widespread in many parts of the country. That makes contract tracing, 284 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 1: you know, so much more difficult. So we can't forget 285 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:25,480 Speaker 1: about the political angle to this pandemic. President elect Biden 286 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 1: has already announced a COVID nineteen task force, And so 287 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 1: how do you think the Biden administration hopes to change 288 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:38,320 Speaker 1: the course of the US's response to COVID nineteen. In 289 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 1: President elect Biden really did run an awful lot of 290 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 1: his campaign based on how to manage the coronavirus outbreak. 291 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 1: It's clear that he wants to lead from the front 292 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 1: with a national approach to everything from testing, to tracing, 293 00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 1: to masking, to geting states and governors and local public 294 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:07,160 Speaker 1: health officials the information and the supplies that they need 295 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:09,440 Speaker 1: in order to get this virus under control. That is 296 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 1: a huge shift from how President Trump approached the challenge. 297 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:18,680 Speaker 1: It's going to be some dislocation that happens here as 298 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 1: each individual states adjusts to President elect Biden's approach. So 299 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:28,480 Speaker 1: President elect Biden has announced a Coronavirus task Force. The 300 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:34,520 Speaker 1: three co leads of this panel are David Kessler, Vivic Murphy, 301 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:39,399 Speaker 1: and Marcella Nunia Smith. They are a very established group 302 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 1: of leaders. David Kessler was the FDA Commissioner appointed by 303 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: President George Herbert Walker Bush back in. Vivic Murphy was 304 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 1: the former surgeon general Marcella Nunia Smith is the founding 305 00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 1: director of the Equity Research and Innovation Center at Yale 306 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 1: School of Medicine. So to them are taking a different 307 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 1: tact when it comes to coronavirus. The other person that's uh, 308 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,480 Speaker 1: we definitely should mention on this task forces Michael Osterholm, 309 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:11,360 Speaker 1: who is the director the Center for Infectous As These 310 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 1: Research and Policy the Universe in Minnesota. And he is 311 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 1: you know, a longstanding uh big thinker, a top expert 312 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:23,240 Speaker 1: you know on infectious disease and particularly on potential future pandemics. 313 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:25,919 Speaker 1: And you know, most things that he said about this 314 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 1: pandemic from the beginning of ben you know, spot on 315 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,280 Speaker 1: as as anyone else in the country. So he is 316 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:34,159 Speaker 1: a real top expert to have on this panel. Biden 317 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:38,760 Speaker 1: has already said that he is committed to dramatically increasing 318 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 1: the number of tests that are available and that are conducted, 319 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 1: and that are available easily and freely for the American public. 320 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 1: Knowing whether or not you are infected is going to 321 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 1: be the best way to help people implement these social distancing, 322 00:18:56,440 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 1: non pharmaceutical approaches to getting the virus under control. That 323 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 1: is something that has to happen very quickly. And it 324 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:08,680 Speaker 1: has to be an all of government effort where steps 325 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:12,560 Speaker 1: are made in order to make sure that these tests 326 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 1: are available to people and that they can get them 327 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 1: easily and freely, and then they can take action based 328 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,200 Speaker 1: on what they're finding. I personally believe that that will 329 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:24,280 Speaker 1: be the biggest impact that Biden would be able to 330 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:30,000 Speaker 1: have on this outbreak. Yeah, I think that on vaccines, 331 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:32,719 Speaker 1: you know that that's one era of Biden and Trump 332 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,920 Speaker 1: aren't that far apart. They're all far vaccines. I think 333 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 1: a Biden administration might try to just enhance the public 334 00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 1: trust in a vaccine with some additional reviews, but that 335 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 1: probably you know, wouldn't make an enormous difference and the 336 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 1: time from the vaccine. They just do some things to 337 00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:51,160 Speaker 1: have some additions, have some additional scientific review to make 338 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:53,879 Speaker 1: increased confidence in the vaccine and increase confidence that is 339 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 1: not political interference. But basically, you know, the FDA has 340 00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 1: already been moving in that direction even under the Trump administration, 341 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 1: and so that vaccine timeline probably there isn't an enormous 342 00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:07,200 Speaker 1: difference between the administrations because basically, once vaccine seeing this 343 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,919 Speaker 1: effective and safe, there's going to be tremendous incentive to 344 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 1: get them out as quickly as possible, and the endgame there, 345 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 1: it's just going to be how efficient is the distribution system, 346 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 1: you know, in terms of the rest of the virus 347 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 1: and social distancing. I think, you know, Biden administration certainly 348 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:24,919 Speaker 1: will make much anymore of an effort to have you know, 349 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:29,680 Speaker 1: broader national policies and our guidelines, you know, on what 350 00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:32,920 Speaker 1: to do in terms of social distancing and mask wearing. Biden, 351 00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:35,600 Speaker 1: I'm sure I'll use the bully pulpit to promote whatever 352 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,440 Speaker 1: his recommendations are, and you know, and people follow that 353 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 1: that could help. There's no doubt about it. President Biden 354 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 1: might move to a nationwide mask mandate. President Biden might 355 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:56,080 Speaker 1: move towards nationwide shutdowns, restrictions, recommendations that would further these 356 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 1: non pharmaceutical interventions, all of these things that we have 357 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,639 Speaker 1: not seen President Trump being willing or wanting to do. 358 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 1: President Trump's focus on reopening the economy will almost definitely 359 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:16,640 Speaker 1: be dialed back under President Biden. You know, we've been 360 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:19,399 Speaker 1: talking about what had been projected for the fall that 361 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 1: certainly seems to be coming to pass. But in terms 362 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:26,239 Speaker 1: of what public health officials are looking ahead to the 363 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:31,600 Speaker 1: end of the beginning of have projections changed at all 364 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 1: And what are we to expect now in the coming 365 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:40,160 Speaker 1: weeks and months. Well, public health authorities, you know, expect 366 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:43,800 Speaker 1: this to be rough next few months in terms of coronavirus, 367 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,760 Speaker 1: because what you're seeing in the northern parts of the country, 368 00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:48,720 Speaker 1: such as Wisconsin that had got the cold is whether 369 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: first that's gonna increasingly those rates the potential to spread 370 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,879 Speaker 1: to the rest of the country. That means, you know, 371 00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,920 Speaker 1: we're gonna have to make it through this winter essentially 372 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 1: on social disc and seeing mass wearing and cleanliness, you know, 373 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 1: other basic measures alone and perhaps with some help from 374 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,760 Speaker 1: some of these antibody drugs, but even those will be 375 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,640 Speaker 1: in very very short supply, so you know, it's gonna 376 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,200 Speaker 1: be it's gonna be a rough, difficult, you know, a winter, 377 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:16,720 Speaker 1: and we have to kind of, you know, I think, 378 00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 1: hunker down for it. Public health officials are saying that 379 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 1: we're going to see these rising rates continue for at 380 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,160 Speaker 1: least the rest of November and December, and then they're 381 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,119 Speaker 1: saying that things might start coming down, that November and 382 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,680 Speaker 1: December are going to be really bad. But in all honesty, 383 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:36,439 Speaker 1: I personally don't see the change coming. The way that 384 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 1: the virus works. We all know the way the virus works. 385 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 1: It goes from one person to the next, and as 386 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 1: long as there are vulnerable hosts to get infected, the 387 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 1: virus will continue to pass from person to person. And 388 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:52,480 Speaker 1: the number of people while horrifying at ten million infections 389 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 1: in the United States, you have to remember we have 390 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:58,880 Speaker 1: three hundred and thirty million people here. We're talking about 391 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 1: her immunity at the six level. Even if you made 392 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 1: it really simple and low for the math and said 393 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,920 Speaker 1: people have to be infected in order to reduce the risk, 394 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:14,359 Speaker 1: that's still a hundred and sixty five million people. There's 395 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 1: millions and millions of people who are out there who 396 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 1: are vulnerable to this virus. It's become clear in recent 397 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 1: ones is that the vast, vast majority of the US 398 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:26,119 Speaker 1: population is still vulnerable to this virus. Uh. There was 399 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 1: a study out the other day that estimated perhaps of 400 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 1: people in New York City had been exposed to virus. 401 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:34,040 Speaker 1: So that's New York City is one of the most 402 00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:37,719 Speaker 1: heavily exposed parts of the country to the virus because 403 00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:39,960 Speaker 1: of the just the incredible epidemic it had. You know, 404 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,919 Speaker 1: early on. It started very early in rage for in 405 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,360 Speaker 1: April and early May until it was finally gotten under control. 406 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,879 Speaker 1: But even there in this dense, crowded part of the 407 00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:52,639 Speaker 1: country is still only that's really saying something about, you know, 408 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:54,920 Speaker 1: the low levels of much lower levels likely in the 409 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,080 Speaker 1: rest of the country. So most people, you know, are 410 00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 1: still vulnerable and there's just a lot of book could 411 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 1: spread to Still when we're talking about case rates of 412 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 1: a hundred thousand new cases a day, just remember the 413 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:10,440 Speaker 1: reports of hospitalizations and deaths. Those are those are lagging indicators. 414 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:12,520 Speaker 1: Those lagged that a lot the death reports are several 415 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 1: weeks behind that, it looks like according to the data 416 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:17,960 Speaker 1: from the COVID Tracking Project and all time peak offer 417 00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,200 Speaker 1: hospitalizations and the whole pandemic, so that it's really really worrisome. 418 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,960 Speaker 1: The one good thing is that intensive care units and 419 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,480 Speaker 1: hospitals are better at keeping people alive. Now there's better care, 420 00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:32,359 Speaker 1: So the death rate has gone down because of things 421 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:34,640 Speaker 1: like the steroid decks of method zone and just generally 422 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 1: better hospital care. With this many people who are still 423 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 1: potentially vulnerable to the virus, we do know that we 424 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,280 Speaker 1: can flatten the curb and we can get the virus 425 00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:48,680 Speaker 1: under control with our social distancing efforts. Because we've done 426 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:50,960 Speaker 1: that already, we know that it can be done, but 427 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,520 Speaker 1: think about what we had to do in order for 428 00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:56,240 Speaker 1: that to happen. My expectation is that we're going to 429 00:24:56,280 --> 00:25:00,160 Speaker 1: continue seeing these cases increase until we start seeing being 430 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,560 Speaker 1: some pretty substantial lockdowns. And I think that is something 431 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 1: that public health officials and politicians have not been willing 432 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 1: to say. But in my mind, I think that we're 433 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 1: either going to accept a phenomenal number of deaths and 434 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:17,919 Speaker 1: increasing cases, or we're all going to spend a pretty 435 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 1: significant amount of our time inside our houses again this winter. 436 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,159 Speaker 1: What do you think, Bob Right? I mean, if you 437 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:26,199 Speaker 1: look at Europe, a lot of countries in Europe there 438 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,960 Speaker 1: are already, you know, reimposing various types of lockdowns, somewhat temporary, 439 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:31,919 Speaker 1: and they may they vary from country to country, but 440 00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:34,960 Speaker 1: you see those happening again in you know, major European 441 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,440 Speaker 1: countries which are ahead of us in terms of the surge, 442 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,920 Speaker 1: and in the US generally speaking, there's been little appetite 443 00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,240 Speaker 1: for that. It's even temporary ones that are limited to say, 444 00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,680 Speaker 1: you know, bars and restaurants and and and some other 445 00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,680 Speaker 1: types of businesses. It just not clear what the appetity is, 446 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,679 Speaker 1: but it does seem clear, you know, without you know, 447 00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 1: some more measure of intense social distancing. Yes, that hospitalizations 448 00:25:56,720 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 1: and deaths are going to continue to rise. Unfortunately, Michelle, 449 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,520 Speaker 1: you already mentioned Thanksgiving, but do you think there's a 450 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:08,360 Speaker 1: willingness in the US to essentially not have a normal 451 00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:11,320 Speaker 1: holiday season? Um, what can we do or what can 452 00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 1: government officials do to try and tamp down some of 453 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 1: these these more worrying trends that we're seeing With the 454 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:24,480 Speaker 1: holidays coming up, we already are seeing people say make 455 00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:28,440 Speaker 1: sure that you don't put your loved ones, your family members, 456 00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,880 Speaker 1: your friends who are at high risk in a dangerous 457 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 1: situation over the holidays. You don't want to bring somebody 458 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:40,560 Speaker 1: who is elderly, overweight, has other health conditions into your 459 00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:44,159 Speaker 1: home and expose them to even small groups of people, 460 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 1: because you could be transmitting the virus. That's something that 461 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:52,080 Speaker 1: we're seeing already, because the virus is so widespread across 462 00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:56,959 Speaker 1: the country that even small groups of people are including 463 00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 1: people who are asymptomatically positive and you have no idea 464 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 1: that they are putting your loved one at risk. That 465 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,280 Speaker 1: being said, just like the point we were making earlier 466 00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 1: that people are tired of social distancing, they're tired of 467 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,800 Speaker 1: wearing masks. They want to get together with their loved ones. 468 00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:17,000 Speaker 1: Thanksgiving is a huge issue in the United States. People 469 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:18,879 Speaker 1: want to be with their families. That's what this is 470 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:23,320 Speaker 1: all about. And it's already been you know, months and 471 00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,439 Speaker 1: months and months of isolation. People really want to get together. 472 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 1: It's going to be an interesting phenomenon what people decide 473 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,600 Speaker 1: to do to what extent they want to balance having 474 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,840 Speaker 1: their families and their friends together versus keeping their families 475 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,800 Speaker 1: and friends safe. It's hard to tell what's going to happen, 476 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 1: you know, during Thanksgiving. I imagine this country is so split, 477 00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,560 Speaker 1: uh that that it will just be a different situation 478 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,359 Speaker 1: in different states and among different groups of people, and 479 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:49,680 Speaker 1: some parts of the country maybe much more cautious and 480 00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 1: other parts of the country. So yes, if there are 481 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:57,160 Speaker 1: very large Thanksgiving gatherings where people haven't been cautious, that's 482 00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:00,400 Speaker 1: almost certain to increase the spread of the virus. People 483 00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:04,120 Speaker 1: don't tone down their Thanksgiving celebrations and you know, keep 484 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,400 Speaker 1: them to you know, smaller groups than usual, or find 485 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,760 Speaker 1: ways to do effectively, you know, quarantine or isolate ahead 486 00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,680 Speaker 1: of those gatherings if they are doing a somewhat bigger gathering, 487 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,119 Speaker 1: especially in cases where there's a lot of interstate travel, 488 00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,199 Speaker 1: and that is often what happens around these holidays, is 489 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:21,840 Speaker 1: that there's interstate travel. People come from different states for 490 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,280 Speaker 1: big Thanksgiving dinner somewhere. But that does the virus is that, 491 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,760 Speaker 1: you know, spreads the virus from one part of the country, 492 00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:31,320 Speaker 1: one county to the next. So the more people you 493 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:35,200 Speaker 1: have at your Thanksgiving celebration coming from the more disparate 494 00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:37,600 Speaker 1: parts of the state or different states, you know, the 495 00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 1: more likely it is to spread the virus, just by 496 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,400 Speaker 1: the sheer mathematics of the likelihood someone has acquired something 497 00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:51,080 Speaker 1: and they don't know it yet. That was Michelle fig 498 00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,880 Speaker 1: worked his and Robert Langrid and that's it for our 499 00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,880 Speaker 1: show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one and 500 00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:02,720 Speaker 1: around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and 501 00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,240 Speaker 1: if you like the show, please leave us a review 502 00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:09,160 Speaker 1: and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the 503 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,400 Speaker 1: best way to help more listeners find our global reporting. 504 00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 1: The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Topher Foreheads Jordan Gaspoure, 505 00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:23,080 Speaker 1: Magnus Henrickson, and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was 506 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:27,760 Speaker 1: reported by Michelle Fake Cortes and Robert Langreth. Original music 507 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:32,280 Speaker 1: by Leo sidrin Our Editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. 508 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:39,200 Speaker 1: Special thanks to John Frauher and Creighton Harrison. Francesco Leviy 509 00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:42,520 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.