1 00:00:01,240 --> 00:00:08,799 Speaker 1: The volume. It's the Colin Coward Podcast presented by FanDuel 2 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: Football Seasons. Here no better place to get in on 3 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: the action. FanDuel app is safe, You get paid fast, 4 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: A lot of ways to play the spread, the money line, team, totals, players, props, 5 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: a lot of stuff over unders, jump into the action, 6 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: same game, parlays are my favorite. Just use the promo 7 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 1: code Colin and download the FanDuel app today. So Week 8 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 1: three of the NFL kicks off with a stirring matchup 9 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 1: between Mitch Trubisky and Jacoby Brissette. As good as this 10 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 1: rivalry is and as good as these rosters are, I mean, 11 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 1: Nick Chubb is sensational. How about rookie George Pickett in 12 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: that one handed catch between these two rosters? Even without 13 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 1: t J. Watt, you have seven to ten elite players, 14 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 1: Pro Bowl level players. We talk about quarterback a lot 15 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:14,960 Speaker 1: on this podcast or on my radio show or TV show. 16 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:18,759 Speaker 1: This game was a great example why you're talking about 17 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 1: two really good gms, I think, two really good coaches, 18 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 1: two significantly above average rosters. And how dull was that 19 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: game and how uninspiring was that game? Because your quarterbacks 20 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 1: are average and that's why when I see a team 21 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 1: give up multiple first round picks. I mean, you can 22 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: criticize the forty nine ers for giving up three first 23 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: round picks for Trey Lance, but if he ends up 24 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 1: being the starting quarterback and one of the twelve B 25 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:53,639 Speaker 1: plus and above quarterbacks in the league, what is he worth? 26 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 1: I mean, just put a Josh Allen, a Mahomes, a Herbert, 27 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 1: even a Derek Carr Kirk Cousins with this Pittsburgh roster. 28 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:06,920 Speaker 1: Look at Cleveland Shaun Watson in a couple of months 29 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:10,800 Speaker 1: takes over. I mean, these are really good rosters, and 30 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 1: your offense is completely limited when you get a Trubisky 31 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:17,119 Speaker 1: or a Jacoby Brissette. There's simply one way to win. 32 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:20,240 Speaker 1: Low scoring. You're not going to come from behind. You 33 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:24,639 Speaker 1: can't score quickly. And that's the reality of this league 34 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 1: more so than ever. The only downside to having a 35 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:31,960 Speaker 1: league be so quarterback centric now with the rules pivoting 36 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 1: all offense, is that if you don't have this quarterback, 37 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 1: the league becomes a have and have not league very quickly. 38 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 1: In Week two last week, how many games had double 39 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 1: digit odds, ten eleven, twelve point favorites. That's very college feeling. 40 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: I just don't remember. When I started betting on the NFL, 41 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:56,080 Speaker 1: you'd have maybe one ugly line a twelve thirteen point 42 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: spread per week. We have four or five some weeks now. 43 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,360 Speaker 1: Because the league is so quarterback centric. If you do 44 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 1: not have or if you do have a Jacoby Brissette 45 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 1: or a Mitch Drubiski, you can just be, especially on 46 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: the road, completely outclassed. And these are two good coaches, 47 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:17,639 Speaker 1: two good organizations, I think in terms of front office 48 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 1: and drafting and scouting, Cleveland's done a great job the 49 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 1: last two to three years. Andrew Berry really sharp. My 50 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 1: sources love him. And obviously the Rooney's in the front 51 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 1: office of the Steelers for years has drafted elite pass rushers, 52 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 1: elite receivers, elite running backs, elite quarterbacks, elite tight ends, 53 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 1: elite linebackers. And that was a showcase of mediocrity at quarterback. 54 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 1: So when a team rolls the dice and gives up 55 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 1: three first for a quarterback, I'm here for it. Even 56 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 1: if the quarterback fails, you have to swing big because 57 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 1: if you look at the Steelers history from Bradshaw to 58 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 1: Ben it was a lot of Tommy Maddox and a 59 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 1: lot of Bubby Brister. They've only won super Bowls when 60 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 1: they had Bradshaw or when they had Big Ben and 61 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 1: so I think Cleveland by the end of the year, 62 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 1: if they can sit around five hundred, slightly below slightly 63 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 1: above you get to Shaun Watson, cross your fingers that 64 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 1: he comes in ready to play. They've got a chance. 65 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 1: Because I really do like Cleveland's roster. They have all 66 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:31,040 Speaker 1: the elements, you know. They have an elite corner, an 67 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:34,039 Speaker 1: elite pass rusher, an elite back, a very good left 68 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 1: tackle add to Shaun Watson. Those are the key positions. 69 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:45,040 Speaker 1: So congratulations on that stirring Thursday night matchup. It is 70 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 1: a very odd weekend where I find myself, as you'll 71 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:55,160 Speaker 1: hear with Chad Millman, betting and liking mediocre teams. I 72 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: don't like betting on average quarterbacks and average teams, but 73 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: that's what we have this week. Let's get the child 74 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 1: Millman ce CEO of the Action Network, Sharp or Square. 75 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 1: Here we go, all right, time for another edition of 76 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 1: Sharper Square at a very good week four and one 77 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,480 Speaker 1: on my blazing five. So let's get to the games. 78 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 1: I like a lot Raiders and Titans are both struggling Titans, 79 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 1: though at home getting points. I think I have a 80 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 1: coaching advantage. Listen, They're not terribly explosive, but you don't 81 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 1: have to be with the Raiders back end. I'm taking 82 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 1: what I think is a better staff, more continuity on 83 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:42,719 Speaker 1: the staff. They're at home, they're getting points. I would 84 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:48,600 Speaker 1: take the Titans here Sharper square. It's completely neutral, no joke. 85 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:51,839 Speaker 1: There is fifty percent of the money on the Raiders, 86 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 1: fifty percent of the money on the Titans. I think 87 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 1: in the end, I would be with you. It's interesting 88 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 1: to me, how many times have you said to me, 89 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:07,119 Speaker 1: you don't want to bet games, you don't want to watch. 90 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:11,599 Speaker 1: This is a corner TV game. And what that means 91 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:15,040 Speaker 1: is when you're at the sports book and the bookmakers 92 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 1: know they have to put every game on television, this 93 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 1: is the game they put on in the corner. It's 94 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 1: going to have the fewest amount of bets. It's going 95 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:25,160 Speaker 1: to have the least amount of interest, it's going to 96 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 1: have the least amount of passion. Like people kind of 97 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 1: don't have a strong opinion on it. I think the 98 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:34,160 Speaker 1: Raiders are kind of injured. I think Derek Carr can't 99 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 1: seem to make decisions in this new offense. I agree 100 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,599 Speaker 1: with you about the coaching advantage. I am a huge 101 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:45,360 Speaker 1: Mike Rabel fan, but from a sharp square perspective, there 102 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:49,479 Speaker 1: is zero sort of opinion to be had. You're kind 103 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 1: of taking the home underdog, which is always the safe 104 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 1: thing to do. You're taking a home underdog with a 105 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: better coach. But right now, this Titans team is not 106 00:06:56,839 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: a very dynamic team, so for me personally, it would 107 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:05,799 Speaker 1: be a pass. I'm going to take the Commanders plus 108 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 1: six and a half at home against the Eagles. Eagles 109 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 1: short week. The world's telling him how great they are, 110 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 1: and the truth is the Commanders did be to Jacksonville team, 111 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 1: which I think's actually pretty spunky. Carson Wentz gets a 112 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 1: lot of criticism, but it's funny the Colts can't move 113 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: the chain since he left. Maybe he wasn't the problem. 114 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 1: I'm going to take in a division rivalry six and 115 00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: a half points every day. Veteran coach Sharper Square. The 116 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 1: difference between how you sounded in the last bet and 117 00:07:34,200 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 1: how you sound in this bet, it's like it's two 118 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: different people. Of course, this is the sharp play you 119 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: said all the key phrases. You're getting a division dog 120 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 1: at a big number. You're getting a quarterback who probably 121 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 1: will burn you at some point, but he's also a 122 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 1: quarterback who has kept his team in games and in 123 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 1: cover positions. And I agree with you about the Jags. 124 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 1: I think they're going to win the AFC South. I've 125 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 1: bet him before the season began at eight to one 126 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 1: to win the AFC South. And you've seen the Eagles 127 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 1: team that Kirk Cousins game. He gave it to the Eagles. 128 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: The Eagles were giving Kirk Cousins every opportunity to stay 129 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 1: in that game. I would be a little worried about 130 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 1: the Eagles defense right now. And as you said, it's 131 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 1: a classic Bilow Cell high right You're getting the Eagles 132 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 1: coming off that prime time game, coming off a huge win. 133 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 1: They are the team that everyone thinks is going to 134 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 1: be dominant in the NFC right now. And the Commanders, 135 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 1: you know they're lost. They just lost. So it's the 136 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 1: right spot. Like the Jags plus seven against the Chargers. 137 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 1: First of all, I think they can move the ball. 138 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 1: I talked to Greg ko Sell today. He said he 139 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 1: already sees improvements from Urban to Doug Peterson at quarterback. 140 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:56,240 Speaker 1: The Christian Kirk dynamic is working, justin Herbert is not 141 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:59,679 Speaker 1: practicing at full speed. They are a little banged up. 142 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 1: Coal Linsley the Pro Bowl Center probably doesn't play. It 143 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 1: feels like a lot of points in a game that 144 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 1: I mean the Chargers I think left some offense on 145 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 1: the table against the Chiefs and the Raiders. Seven points 146 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 1: is too much here. They may go with Chase Daniel 147 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:21,680 Speaker 1: because it's a long season and not risk it. I 148 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 1: like the Jags plus seven sharper square. Yeah, this is 149 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 1: totally sharp. Ninety percent of the money, no joke. Ninety 150 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 1: percent of the money is coming in on the Jaguars. 151 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:37,560 Speaker 1: And it's not a small number of tickets either. And 152 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 1: the Jags, I thought they could have beaten the Commanders 153 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 1: in week one. They gave it away. Then they played 154 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:49,079 Speaker 1: great in Week two. They did what a lot of 155 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:51,320 Speaker 1: us expected them to do. When I came on the 156 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: show last week, we talked about the Jags at four 157 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 1: and a half. They did exactly what we thought they 158 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:01,679 Speaker 1: would do with the Charger. This is a really big number. 159 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 1: I'm surprised at the value you're getting on the Jaguars 160 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:09,959 Speaker 1: right now, especially with the Herbert scenario. He's got four 161 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 1: essentially broken ribs. That's not easy to play through. So 162 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 1: even if he is going to play, he's going to 163 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:23,440 Speaker 1: be hobbled. Jaguars are one hundred percent the sharp side here. Yeah, 164 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 1: Jags I thought were better than the Commanders. Okay, this 165 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,679 Speaker 1: is an ugly corner game that nobody wants to watch, 166 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 1: but I want to bet it. I'm gonna take Atlanta 167 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 1: plus one and a half at Seattle yards per play rushing, 168 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 1: Atlanta far superior offensive lines. Seahawks start two rookie tackles. 169 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:43,559 Speaker 1: I'll take the Falcons yards passing per game. Mariota is 170 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:47,560 Speaker 1: absolutely better one healthy than Gino Smith advantage. Atlanta the 171 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 1: better team getting points. I think Gino is sort of 172 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 1: a one trick pony. That first opening game, it was fantastic. 173 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 1: They looked like a dud against the Niners. I know 174 00:10:57,800 --> 00:10:59,959 Speaker 1: nobody wants to watch. It doesn't mean I don't want 175 00:10:59,960 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 1: to bet it. It's one of my favorites. Atlanta plus 176 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 1: the point sharper squad. Al Right, so you've hit on 177 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: some really key points here. Number one, the Seahawks. The 178 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 1: only time to bet them was in Week one. We 179 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 1: talked about this on the show, I begged you to 180 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:16,320 Speaker 1: take the Seahawks plus six against the Broncos. That was 181 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:18,680 Speaker 1: going to be the only spot. If you talk to 182 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 1: professional betters right now, the way they are power rating teams, 183 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 1: the Seahawks and the Bears are the two worst teams 184 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:30,559 Speaker 1: in the NFL. The Falcons are a team that they 185 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:32,440 Speaker 1: love and you can see it in the line move here. 186 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 1: This game opened at three and a half with the 187 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 1: Falcons as three and a half point underdogs on the 188 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 1: road at Seattle. The game is now down to one. 189 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:44,920 Speaker 1: It is moving fast pretty soon the Falcons and some 190 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:47,439 Speaker 1: spots it'll be picked this game will probably have them 191 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 1: going off as favorites. It'll be a huge swing. If 192 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:52,440 Speaker 1: you want to get the Falcons, get it now. There 193 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 1: are some wise guys who will say to you, just 194 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:56,640 Speaker 1: bet the Falcons. They're the better team, and they have 195 00:11:56,800 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 1: loved the Falcons this year. The Falcons plus ten against 196 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 1: the Rams last week was a huge, huge wise guy play, 197 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 1: and they thought they left a lot of plays in 198 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 1: the field. They really love this offense. They love the 199 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 1: way it's so predicated on the run. So you were 200 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 1: getting a lot of wise guy activity on the Falcons 201 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:16,800 Speaker 1: and the Wise Guys will be in the Falcons a 202 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:23,680 Speaker 1: lot this year. Football seasons underway, so now is the 203 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 1: perfect time to download Fan Duel, America's number one sports book. 204 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 1: Joined today, Get started one hundred and fifty dollars in 205 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 1: free bets, get granted when you place your first five 206 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 1: dollars bet. Promo code though is Colin to get in 207 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 1: on the action always. Colin turned Game Day into Payday, 208 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 1: Win Totals, Division Winners, Player Props, Week one Spreads and totals. 209 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 1: Play your Way bet on more than just the final score. 210 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 1: You can even combine your bets for a chance at 211 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 1: a bigger payout with same game Parlay My favor Now. 212 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:02,960 Speaker 1: Fan Duel is also live in Kansas, Baby, Don't fumble 213 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:05,600 Speaker 1: your chance one hundred and fifty bucks in free beets, 214 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 1: winner Lose promo code column, Make every moment more with FanDuel, 215 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 1: the official sports book and partner of the NFL twenty 216 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 1: one plus some present in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, and Louisiana. 217 00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 1: Permitted parish is only Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, 218 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 1: Virginia or West Virginia. First online Real money Wager only 219 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,439 Speaker 1: refund issued as non withdrawal psyche credit that expires in 220 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 1: fourteen days. Restrictions suply s terms at sportsbook dot fandel 221 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 1: dot com. Gambling problem one eight hundred next step or 222 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: text next step to five three three four two Arizona 223 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:34,680 Speaker 1: one eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven 224 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,679 Speaker 1: seven or visit CCPG dot org, slash chat Connecticut one 225 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 1: hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash RG and Colorado, Indiana, 226 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 1: Jersey in Virginia one eight seven seven seven seven zero 227 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 1: stop in Louisiana one one hundred two seven oh seven 228 00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:46,640 Speaker 1: and one one seven for confidential health in Michigan one 229 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:49,440 Speaker 1: eight seven seven h Ope n Y. Or tex Hope 230 00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:51,199 Speaker 1: n Y. For six seven three six nine in New York, 231 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:53,640 Speaker 1: Tennessee Redline one one hundred eight eight nine nine seven 232 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 1: eight nine Tennessee visits one eight hundred gambler dot in 233 00:13:55,520 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 1: West Virginia, Okay. Another slight underdog Dallas getting a point 234 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:07,839 Speaker 1: at the Giants. Listen. I think Dallas has better personnel. 235 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 1: I think the story that Brian Dable is improving Daniel 236 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:15,320 Speaker 1: Jones is a nice story. I don't think it's a 237 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 1: nice team, although I do think they have found in 238 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 1: Andrew Thomas their left tackle for the next decade. That's 239 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 1: a great story. They have Kenny Galladay issues now asking 240 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:26,280 Speaker 1: why don't I get the ball? They could easily be 241 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 1: O and two their two and oh, I think I 242 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:32,360 Speaker 1: get the better team. Cooper Rush isn't DAK, but he's 243 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 1: playing at a level that's reasonably similar to Dak. I'm 244 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 1: going to take the points in the Cowboys Sharper square, 245 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:44,680 Speaker 1: so it's completely split on this one. The line is 246 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 1: moved in the Cowboys direction. I can't deny that. But 247 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 1: the Giants have been a wise guy team since before 248 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 1: the season began. The wise guys were betting their season 249 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 1: win total over they bet them in Game one, they 250 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 1: at him against the Panthers. This is a team that 251 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 1: the wise guys have been backing all year long. I 252 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 1: think come Monday, you're going to start seeing money come 253 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 1: in on the Giants. I personally am going to back 254 00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 1: the Giants here. It's too short of a home favorite 255 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:21,080 Speaker 1: in a division game in prime time. I don't agree 256 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: with you about Cooper Rush at all. I don't think 257 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 1: he is DAK level. We talked about this last week, 258 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 1: right you said you wanted to take the Bengals, and 259 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 1: I'm like, listen, the Cowboys at this number, which was 260 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 1: plus eight and a half to plus seven, Dak Prescott 261 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 1: is not a quarterback who's worth the amount of points 262 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 1: against the point spread that he had been given credit 263 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 1: for in the way that line moved. But he's still 264 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,920 Speaker 1: better than Cooper Rush. And this number should not be 265 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:48,880 Speaker 1: moving in the direction of the Cowboys what they do 266 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 1: have statistically, in and every other metric, Micah Parsons is 267 00:15:54,520 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 1: just dominant. And I think if anything you mentioned Andrew 268 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:02,640 Speaker 1: Thomas could be the mitigating factor. He will be the 269 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 1: left tackle that Micah Parsons is going up against that 270 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 1: is better than anybody else he has faced. So that'll 271 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 1: be interesting to me. All right, time for favorites. Listen, 272 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 1: I can admit what I'm wrong. San Francisco has such 273 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 1: a coaching advantage. I'm going to swallow one and a 274 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 1: half against Denver. Hackett is lost. But here's the interesting 275 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:30,000 Speaker 1: thing I'm gonna throw my theory at you, is that 276 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:34,560 Speaker 1: there's a sense never forget that Kyle Shanahan, many said, 277 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 1: privately wanted Mac Jones, knowing his athletic limitations. The Niners offense, 278 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 1: which is now the Miami offense, is built for Tua 279 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 1: and Garoppolo. They're Chris Paul right, they're distributors. They don't 280 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 1: need Kobe Bryant. They don't need Michael Jordan running the show. 281 00:16:56,440 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 1: That's Baltimore. Superhuman talent, that's Kansas City. This offense needs 282 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:04,359 Speaker 1: a quick distributor to get the ball in the hands 283 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:09,919 Speaker 1: of Brandon I Yuk, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel So where 284 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:14,520 Speaker 1: as Garoppolo and Tua are limited, there's an argument to 285 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:19,840 Speaker 1: be made they are ideal for this offense. Right. That's 286 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:24,199 Speaker 1: why there was some frustration publicly with Trey Lance. He 287 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 1: waited too long, he wasn't as accurate. I think San Francisco. 288 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 1: I think when they have Garoppolo starting, they're a pain 289 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:36,160 Speaker 1: in the arts to face, major coaching advantage. I think 290 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 1: the Niners go into Denver, I'll swallow the one and 291 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:41,840 Speaker 1: a half and beat the Broncos. Sharper square. Yeah, this 292 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,639 Speaker 1: is a big wise guy game right now, and it's 293 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,720 Speaker 1: for all those reasons you just said. It's so interesting. 294 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 1: In the beginning of the year, people are high on 295 00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 1: Trey Lance. You don't necessarily know what you're going to 296 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: get but you're excited about what the ceiling can be 297 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 1: and you kind of know what Jimmy Garoppolo is right. 298 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:05,919 Speaker 1: You know that he's going to be accurate. He's in 299 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:08,359 Speaker 1: the short game. He's not going to be accurate in 300 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 1: the long game. There will probably plays at some point 301 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:12,560 Speaker 1: in the game that you need him to make in 302 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:14,960 Speaker 1: the high pressure situations late in the game, that he 303 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:19,160 Speaker 1: won't make in games that really really matter NFC Championship game, 304 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 1: super Bowl during the regular season. This is a guy 305 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 1: you bet on, and everyone now understands this is a 306 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:30,119 Speaker 1: team that they can feel comfortable betting on as short 307 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,080 Speaker 1: road favorites. And Kyle Shannon through his career, he's better 308 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:34,879 Speaker 1: on the road than he is at home. And I 309 00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:39,240 Speaker 1: think what we've seen with the Broncos, like Nathaniel Hackett, 310 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 1: he is a little bit underwater right now. And so 311 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:48,639 Speaker 1: he was fifteen to one to be coach of the 312 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 1: year when the season began. He is now at about 313 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 1: one hundred to one to be coach of the year. 314 00:18:57,119 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 1: I think there are coaching issues there, learning how to 315 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:03,440 Speaker 1: be a head coach in real time, and Russell Wilson 316 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 1: has not been the Russell Wilson that I certainly thought 317 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 1: he would be I thought the Broncos would have a 318 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 1: chance to compete in this division. They do not. One more, 319 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 1: favorite people paid very little attention in the Miami Baltimore game, 320 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:22,159 Speaker 1: which I watched for a second time on Wednesday on 321 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 1: the Treadmill. Baltimore was the better team, Lamar was the 322 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,119 Speaker 1: better quarterback, but because of the way it ended in 323 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:32,560 Speaker 1: the Fireworks show two of grab the headlines, Lamar Jackson's 324 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:36,720 Speaker 1: very good outplayed ta for seventy five percent of the game. 325 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:39,640 Speaker 1: It was rookie defensive backs that made Tua look like 326 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:43,320 Speaker 1: you know, Joe Montana. Baltimore is a really good football team. 327 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:48,520 Speaker 1: The New England Patriots have real limitations. What their weakness 328 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 1: is is what the Ravens weaknesses. You can beat the 329 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:54,520 Speaker 1: Ravens over the top. Patriots don't throw over the top. 330 00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:56,679 Speaker 1: I'm going to swallow the two and a half. I 331 00:19:56,680 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 1: think Baltimore's an elite team. Sharper Square. This has been 332 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:05,040 Speaker 1: a fascinating game, and we talked a lot about this 333 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 1: on the Favorites podcast. Today we do this segment called 334 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:12,440 Speaker 1: Sharp Calls where we'll do the podcast on Tuesday and 335 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 1: then on Thursday, we will review the calls that we 336 00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 1: have gotten from professional betters who listen to the podcast 337 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:22,200 Speaker 1: and will have opinions on the games that we talked about. 338 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:24,520 Speaker 1: We talked a lot about the Ravens and the Patriots 339 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:27,879 Speaker 1: on Tuesday, got the most sharp calls about the Ravens 340 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:32,800 Speaker 1: and the Patriots. For today Thursday, the Pats plus three 341 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 1: is the side everybody is coming in on. I think 342 00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:38,600 Speaker 1: the problem with the Ravens and I agree with you, 343 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 1: like I was concerned, am I letting the second half 344 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 1: collapse of the Ravens influence my thinking on this game? 345 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:52,440 Speaker 1: Am I letting a recency bias influence how I want 346 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 1: to bet on this game? The truth of the matter 347 00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 1: is you mentioned the Ravens defensive back issues. They have 348 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:03,199 Speaker 1: a lot of issue and they also more importantly cannot 349 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 1: run the ball. And so what you're getting is a 350 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,680 Speaker 1: team that's going on the road and is now expected 351 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 1: to be a road favorite against a team and the 352 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:15,879 Speaker 1: Patriots that when Matt Jones plays, they are a serviceable team. 353 00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:19,399 Speaker 1: When he's healthy, they are a serviceable team. So I 354 00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,200 Speaker 1: think the wise guys are starting to see a little 355 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 1: bit of an advantage here at the Patriots plus three. 356 00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 1: You saw it come down a little bit to two 357 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,720 Speaker 1: and a half. I would not be surprised if now 358 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:31,840 Speaker 1: that the line is so much higher because it opened 359 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 1: a pick. So what we're doing here is playing in numbers, right, 360 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:39,400 Speaker 1: And when it gets so high and a home underdog 361 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 1: as a field goal gets to that number, a team 362 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:47,560 Speaker 1: like the Patriots, the wise guys start buying back. Okay, 363 00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:50,120 Speaker 1: now it's time where you tell me what is your 364 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:53,840 Speaker 1: favorite pick that I have not discussed. We have a 365 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 1: lot of agreement. As I get Sharper and Sharper with age, 366 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 1: I'm like a good cheddar. I just get Sharper and 367 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 1: Sharper with age. Where did I miss? Where did I with? 368 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 1: Where did I? Where was I distracted? What pick do 369 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 1: you like? No one has ever accused you of being cheesy, 370 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:13,200 Speaker 1: So that's an interesting analogy you're going for there, Colts 371 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:19,240 Speaker 1: plus five and a half against the Kansas City Chiefs. 372 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:23,439 Speaker 1: I'll tell you right now. This game opened at seven. 373 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 1: The Kansas City Chiefs look like world beaters. You could 374 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:30,600 Speaker 1: say Buffalo Bill's number one, Kansas City Chiefs number two. 375 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:36,320 Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts look like they are really really terrible. Matt 376 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,399 Speaker 1: Ryan can't find his way down the field. Frank Reich 377 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,680 Speaker 1: again coaching a team that gets off to very very 378 00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:47,160 Speaker 1: bad starts. The Colts got blown out and shut out 379 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 1: by the Jaguars. Now we have the Colts in their 380 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 1: home opener. They're owin two. This is the time to 381 00:22:56,480 --> 00:23:01,199 Speaker 1: respond to the overreaction in a negative way. To the Colts. 382 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,359 Speaker 1: You should have Pittman back a wide receiver. You should 383 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:10,200 Speaker 1: have Leonard back at linebacker. A winless home team facing 384 00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 1: a team with at least one win in the past 385 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:20,680 Speaker 1: twenty years covers at a sixty percent clip week three 386 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:23,240 Speaker 1: home dogs that have lost at least once against the 387 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 1: spread that open the game under a touchdown underdog, which 388 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:33,960 Speaker 1: the Colts did sixty four percent against the spread. Every 389 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:38,639 Speaker 1: trend here looks to the Colts. The market looks to 390 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,080 Speaker 1: the Colts. We've seen the line drop from six and 391 00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 1: a half to five and a half. You got to 392 00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,720 Speaker 1: back the Colts. You gotta hold your nose, You got 393 00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,960 Speaker 1: to back the Colts. You gotta believe that not everything 394 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 1: you saw last Sunday is going to be true this Sunday, 395 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 1: whether what you saw was good or what you saw 396 00:23:55,240 --> 00:24:00,360 Speaker 1: was bad. Finally, who do the sharps like on Tampa Bay. 397 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:04,600 Speaker 1: I'm just interested in how they view that Tampa fully 398 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:08,160 Speaker 1: on Tampa, and I think that what you're seeing here 399 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 1: is you got a Hall of Fame quarterback on one side, 400 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 1: you got a Hall of Fame quarterback on the other side. 401 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,119 Speaker 1: You got good running backs on one side, you got 402 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,639 Speaker 1: good running backs on the other side. You have inconsistent, 403 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,680 Speaker 1: too unknown to receivers that you can't really trust on 404 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:26,920 Speaker 1: both sides. So what's the biggest delta here? The delta 405 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:32,640 Speaker 1: is the Buccaneers defense. They know how to pressure Aaron Rodgers. 406 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,560 Speaker 1: They blitz him up to forty percent of the time 407 00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:37,879 Speaker 1: when they have played him, they have been effective. But 408 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 1: most importantly, their defensive backs are just better. And so 409 00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 1: you're getting a very short home dog. This line is 410 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:49,679 Speaker 1: one one and a half in some places, so the 411 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 1: wise guys are going to pile in on the home 412 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:55,880 Speaker 1: team and the short dog with the better defense. Chad 413 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,359 Speaker 1: Millman Action Network. I'm off to kind of a toasty start, 414 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,959 Speaker 1: and I don't mine saying that's not my history. I 415 00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 1: am usually somebody who starts rough in week one and 416 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:10,240 Speaker 1: has to recover. It's a wonky week. I really like 417 00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:13,000 Speaker 1: the Niners. I really like the Falcons, I really like 418 00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:15,719 Speaker 1: the commanders. After that, I can be talked in and 419 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,800 Speaker 1: out of stuff. Milman. Great, seeing you all right, brother, 420 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 1: See you later the volume. Make sure to check out 421 00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 1: The Draymond Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into the 422 00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:45,480 Speaker 1: volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports. 423 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:49,840 Speaker 1: Unique perspective understands behind the rope, also chops up with 424 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:53,720 Speaker 1: guests like Gary Peyton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure 425 00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:58,119 Speaker 1: download The Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcasts, 426 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,680 Speaker 1: only on the ball you Um podcast Network