WEBVTT - Cathie Wood Optimistic on SEC Spot-Bitcoin ETF Approval

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg business Week inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, our and best founder, CEO and CIO, Kathy Wood

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<v Speaker 2>joined our etfiq team to discuss the race for a

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<v Speaker 2>spot bitcoin ETF. Here's just a little bit of what

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<v Speaker 2>she had to say.

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<v Speaker 3>In June when Blackrock announced its filing, or when it

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<v Speaker 3>was announced that Blackrock had filed for Bitcoin ETF, the

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<v Speaker 3>bitcoin price did shoot up, but has been fairly stable

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<v Speaker 3>since then, so I do think it's.

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<v Speaker 4>Had an impact.

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<v Speaker 3>A bigger impact this year was the regional bank crisis.

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<v Speaker 3>It was very interesting to watch bitcoin go from nineteen

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<v Speaker 3>thousand to thirty thousand right in the middle of that

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<v Speaker 3>banking crisis as a regional banks were going bankrupt.

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<v Speaker 4>So it was a flight to safety.

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<v Speaker 3>So I thought that move was just as interesting.

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<v Speaker 5>And a flight to safety is buying bitcoin somehow a

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<v Speaker 5>flight to safety, Isn't it a little too volatile for that?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, if you think about it, bitcoin serves as two

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<v Speaker 3>kinds of hedges. One is a hedge against inflation and

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<v Speaker 3>outright confiscation of wealth. The other is against counterparty risk.

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<v Speaker 3>And you know, when the regional banks started going down

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<v Speaker 3>this fear sort of you know memory, our memories are fresh.

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<v Speaker 3>With eighth nine, the counterparty risk became real and so

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<v Speaker 3>there was this flight into Bitcoin, a completely decentralized, transparent

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<v Speaker 3>network which is not subject to counterparty risk.

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<v Speaker 5>Kathy, So you are in this race. Let's talk about

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<v Speaker 5>the race a little bit. The first important deadline coming

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<v Speaker 5>up is August thirteenth, where the ARC filing. The SEC's

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<v Speaker 5>either going to delay it, which we think they'll probably

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<v Speaker 5>delay it, and then Blackrock is later. You filed before Blackrock,

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<v Speaker 5>but Blackrock came in with the surveillance sharing agreement with

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<v Speaker 5>coinbase that was novel. Right now, we're looking in the future.

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<v Speaker 5>There's talk of a common clock where the SEC could

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<v Speaker 5>approve a bunch of ETFs at once, putting you on

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<v Speaker 5>a level playing field with Blackrock and others. What's your

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<v Speaker 5>take on how this will play out? Given you filed earlier.

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<v Speaker 3>I think you're probably right that August thirteenth will come

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<v Speaker 3>and go, and I think I think the SEC, if

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<v Speaker 3>it's going to approve a bitcoin ETF will approve more

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<v Speaker 3>than one at once, so then again because most of

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<v Speaker 3>these essentially will be the same, and it will come

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<v Speaker 3>down to marketing communicating the message. You know, we've been

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<v Speaker 3>putting out our bitcoin monthly for the last year. We

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<v Speaker 3>are now starting a bitcoin brainstorming session. Our first one

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<v Speaker 3>we launched last Thursday. So we're trying to get the

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<v Speaker 3>word out there that you know, our research is deep

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<v Speaker 3>and we've been doing it since twenty fifteen when we

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<v Speaker 3>gained our first exposure to GBTC. We were the first

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<v Speaker 3>public asset manager to gain exposure to bitcoin at all

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<v Speaker 3>in twenty fifteen.

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<v Speaker 6>That's exactly where I want to go. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust,

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<v Speaker 6>known by its ticker GBTC. If you look at ARCW

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<v Speaker 6>for example, your ARC next Generation Internet ETF. Right now,

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<v Speaker 6>I see GBTC as the third largest holding. If we

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<v Speaker 6>are in a situation where the SEC does give its

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<v Speaker 6>blessing for a spot bitcoin ETF, would you plan to

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<v Speaker 6>sell out of GBTC and buy one of these physically backfunts.

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<v Speaker 3>I cannot talk about what we would and would not do,

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<v Speaker 3>and in fact, our compliance team is giving us marching

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<v Speaker 3>orders not to talk very much about this filing and

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<v Speaker 3>it's aftermath at all. So just the fact that we

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<v Speaker 3>filed with our partner twenty one shares is as far

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<v Speaker 3>as as I can go.

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<v Speaker 4>Fair sorry, Katie, fair.

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<v Speaker 6>Enough, No, I was expecting something along those lines. I

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<v Speaker 6>am curious to get your take on the regulatory temperature

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<v Speaker 6>right now, because in addition to this rush of spot

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<v Speaker 6>bitcoin ETF filings that we've seen, there's also been sort

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<v Speaker 6>of a race that's unfolding for an ether futures ETF.

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<v Speaker 6>There's been a ton of filings to that effect, and

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<v Speaker 6>not specific to those funds. But do you sense that

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<v Speaker 6>the moon music around the SEC and what their appetite

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<v Speaker 6>to allow these products to launch has changed in the

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<v Speaker 6>last several months.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think that the two other branches of government,

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<v Speaker 3>the judicial branch and the legislative branch, are giving the

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<v Speaker 3>SEC pause because the SEC is losing cases in court

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<v Speaker 3>having to do with its regulations around crypto, that's the

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<v Speaker 3>first thing. And there are bills that are making their

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<v Speaker 3>way through the House and are seeing some bipartisan support.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, Well, there you have it. That was our

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<v Speaker 2>coinvest founder CEO in Cio, Kathy. Would she spoke earlier

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<v Speaker 2>with our ETF IQ team on Bloomberg Television. Now one

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<v Speaker 2>such member of that team, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF analyst

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<v Speaker 2>Eric Beltchunas he joins us now to discuss his takeaways

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<v Speaker 2>from their conversation. So we just got to hear Eric

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<v Speaker 2>about four minutes of that interview with Kathy Wood talking

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<v Speaker 2>about multiple bitcoin ETFs. There was some stuff she didn't

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<v Speaker 2>touch on though in that clip. Give us big takeaways

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<v Speaker 2>from here interview this afternoon.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I think the first block was on crypto couple takeaways.

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<v Speaker 5>She kind of agreed that probably if the SEC is

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<v Speaker 5>going to prove, it'll be a bunch at once, so

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<v Speaker 5>you might have like three or four out the same day.

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<v Speaker 5>That's weird because when they approve the future's ETF bidows first,

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<v Speaker 5>and if you're out even by a day, you can

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<v Speaker 5>get all the volume. It's called first mover advantage and

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<v Speaker 5>it's big in the ETS base. So I don't think

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<v Speaker 5>the SEC wants play kingmaker here. I think they'll probably

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<v Speaker 5>put about a couple out at once, but ARC is

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<v Speaker 5>in the main race, so it could be ARC, Black Rock, Fidelity,

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<v Speaker 5>something like that. She also talked about how Grey scale

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<v Speaker 5>is probably going to lose their case, I mean, win

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<v Speaker 5>their case against the SEC. That's kind of another loss

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<v Speaker 5>the SEC would take, and we think that's that would

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<v Speaker 5>further put them into a politically untenable position where they

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<v Speaker 5>have to approve it. So all this stuff was I

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<v Speaker 5>think bullish. Also, she talked about Coinbase being the most

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<v Speaker 5>compliant of the exchanges. That's also good for spot back

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<v Speaker 5>coin ETF approval hopes because that's the exchange that all

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<v Speaker 5>of them are connected to in the filings, and so

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<v Speaker 5>I think the idea is if Coinbase can be seen

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<v Speaker 5>by the SEC is willing to play ball a little

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<v Speaker 5>bit share information, they'll feel more comfortable approving the spot ets.

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<v Speaker 5>That's been the hanging up the whole time. But obviously

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<v Speaker 5>we had other segments on single stocks and geography. I'm

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<v Speaker 5>not sure if you want to get into those, but

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<v Speaker 5>that's the crypto takeaway.

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<v Speaker 7>What's the timetable for as far as when this could

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<v Speaker 7>be approved for this spot b co on ETF.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so James and I have a sixty five percent

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<v Speaker 5>chance of approval this year. We think that it won't

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<v Speaker 5>it'll if you know, October, November, December, obviously, are there

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<v Speaker 5>likely times the Greyscale suit, which we could get a

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<v Speaker 5>ruling on in the next month. That could fast track

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<v Speaker 5>the timetable. There's a lot of unknowns here, but I

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<v Speaker 5>do know we give a higher percentage chance that they're

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<v Speaker 5>going to approve ether futures. But they had originally said

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<v Speaker 5>they're not doing that. There's been like five different attempts

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<v Speaker 5>to get one of these and they always tell people

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<v Speaker 5>to withdraw. Well, now they're not. We have good information

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<v Speaker 5>that they're actually going to let ether futures comes out,

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<v Speaker 5>So that's a policy shift there. So again, if they

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<v Speaker 5>let the ether futures out, they come out October, so

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<v Speaker 5>maybe we're looking November December. Again, we still have a

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<v Speaker 5>thirty five percent chance it doesn't happen. So it was

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<v Speaker 5>just like basically not a done deal at all. But

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<v Speaker 5>I think the winds are shifting. You can feel that.

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<v Speaker 5>There's a bunch of little details on why. But that's

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<v Speaker 5>our take.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, single Stocks, what does she say?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, we asked her about Tesla and the new CFO

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<v Speaker 5>or the CFO leaving. She was okay with that.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Zach Kirkhorn has been there for thirteen years, so

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<v Speaker 2>I want to say he's like a really young guy,

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<v Speaker 2>because he's younger than I am. But he's been there

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<v Speaker 2>for thirteen years, so I don't know how young I

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<v Speaker 2>am anymore.

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<v Speaker 5>That also seems like that's a long time for Tesla.

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<v Speaker 5>How old is that company? Right?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean I think it was like his job at

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<v Speaker 2>a business school.

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<v Speaker 5>Also, she was.

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<v Speaker 7>Selling Roku recently too.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, well, the Roku, it's weird. In Kathy's portfolio. She

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<v Speaker 5>tries to maintain weights. So sometimes if a stock go's

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<v Speaker 5>on a run, she will sell some to maintain the

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<v Speaker 5>nine percent waiting or whatever, and it looks like she's

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<v Speaker 5>selling one of her favorite names. But I try to

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<v Speaker 5>look at the percentages, and Roku she's actually increased percentage

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<v Speaker 5>over the past year, so I would say she's bullish

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<v Speaker 5>Roku bullish coinbase. That percentage has gone up. So sometimes

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<v Speaker 5>Kathy got to know, she's always trying to keep these

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<v Speaker 5>weights in line, and so she can sell when it winners, right,

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<v Speaker 5>and it looks like she's bearished, but she's just keeping

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<v Speaker 5>the weight. We also asked her about more Tesla somehow

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<v Speaker 5>the Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg fight came up.

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<v Speaker 2>Somehow asked her who's her money On.

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<v Speaker 5>I didn't see she kind of sidestepped that, but she

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<v Speaker 5>said I she could. I think she could tell. She

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<v Speaker 5>hopes Elon doesn't like hurt himself because he's got to

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<v Speaker 5>run all these companies and so he got is a

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<v Speaker 5>neck problem. And she's just like, I hope he takes

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<v Speaker 5>care of himself.

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<v Speaker 2>This has gotta not happen. This can't happen. This is ridiculous.

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<v Speaker 5>So my theory is the whole thing is to do

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<v Speaker 5>it on X or Twitter, and that's that's what he's

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<v Speaker 5>really trying to do. This is all to get attention.

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<v Speaker 2>And eyeballs threads think.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, maybe if so, that would be fair. But if

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<v Speaker 5>it's only on X, I would say Elon Musk won

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<v Speaker 5>the real fight.

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<v Speaker 7>Right well, Eric bel so great to meet you finally

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<v Speaker 7>in person in the Bloomberg game.

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<v Speaker 2>You guys didn't know each other. Bringing people together.

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<v Speaker 7>Here right etf analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence. Such a pleasure

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<v Speaker 7>meeting you in person when you do all things for Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 2>Jess, my question for you is have you heard of

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<v Speaker 2>live shopping? I already asked you this.

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<v Speaker 7>Well, so I hadn't before, and then I started looking

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<v Speaker 7>things up and then I knew. I was like, I

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<v Speaker 7>knew exactly what this is.

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<v Speaker 2>I just didn't know all well, I was. What's crazy

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<v Speaker 2>is Amazon has like added it to their app. Right,

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<v Speaker 2>so if you if you there's this redesign of the

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<v Speaker 2>Amazon app that happened at some point recently. So if

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<v Speaker 2>you click on like this little ideas thing, it turns

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<v Speaker 2>into this sort of like Instagram stories of shopping.

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<v Speaker 7>It does friends that actually use that. And so now

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<v Speaker 7>I'm hope we're still like do I need to jump

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<v Speaker 7>on the spamwag?

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, well we've got a great guest to talk all

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<v Speaker 2>about this. Mary Garrimani is joining us. She's the CEO

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<v Speaker 2>of Bamboozer. It is a company that creates a shoppable

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<v Speaker 2>video and live shopping shows for retailers. You with us, Mary,

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<v Speaker 2>how are you?

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<v Speaker 4>I'm good, thank you, Happy to be here with you guys.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I really happy to have you here. As I

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<v Speaker 2>was doing prep for this interview with you. I was

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<v Speaker 2>looking for statistics about live shopping and it's pretty incredible

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<v Speaker 2>to see. I mean I heard of it. I first

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<v Speaker 2>heard of it through like stories about China because the

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<v Speaker 2>way it blew up in China during the pandemic. According

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<v Speaker 2>to Insider Intelligence, nearly twenty percent of retail e commerce

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<v Speaker 2>in China will be livestream commerce, with total sales rising

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<v Speaker 2>to more than eight hundred and forty billion in twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty five. That's a huge number. And then clarnas what yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>and Clarna says that only twenty percent of shoppers in

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<v Speaker 2>the US have actually said they've done live commerce, but

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<v Speaker 2>thirty four percent say they haven't, hadn't participated, but they've

0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:44.720
<v Speaker 2>they've heard of it. What are you seeing on your platform?

0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:48.240
<v Speaker 8>So, I mean we are lagging quite a lot, I

0:11:48.240 --> 0:11:52.120
<v Speaker 8>would say, looking to China. So it took almost five years,

0:11:52.200 --> 0:11:56.160
<v Speaker 8>you know, for this new channel to become really it

0:11:56.200 --> 0:11:59.439
<v Speaker 8>has really transformed the retail industry in China and it

0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:03.360
<v Speaker 8>establish itself as you know, a major sales channel.

0:12:03.960 --> 0:12:05.160
<v Speaker 4>But it took them five years.

0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:08.040
<v Speaker 8>And just to go back to that, I mean, China

0:12:08.240 --> 0:12:11.960
<v Speaker 8>is the world's largest e commerce market by far, So

0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:17.160
<v Speaker 8>I would say that we see somewhat similar adaption, you know,

0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:20.040
<v Speaker 8>trend in the US and Europe, but with the lag

0:12:20.120 --> 0:12:23.120
<v Speaker 8>what I would say approximately five years, right, So it's

0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:26.480
<v Speaker 8>really early days for the Western world and live shopping

0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:29.520
<v Speaker 8>or video commerce as we like to frame it. So,

0:12:30.240 --> 0:12:33.959
<v Speaker 8>I mean it's a huge market, it's growing, but of

0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:36.840
<v Speaker 8>course the adoption is not where it is in China.

0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:40.080
<v Speaker 7>I have to call out the retailers and companies that

0:12:40.120 --> 0:12:42.640
<v Speaker 7>you are working with, one of them being QBC, which

0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:44.960
<v Speaker 7>my mom is shopped at for decades, so I should

0:12:45.000 --> 0:12:47.240
<v Speaker 7>probably ask her she's probably using this type of technology too.

0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:49.160
<v Speaker 2>That you raise a good point, Jess, like this is

0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:50.959
<v Speaker 2>a new QVC, right, yes.

0:12:50.760 --> 0:12:55.160
<v Speaker 7>Definitely, and so other companies like Bloomingdale's, Dick Sporting Goods, Adidas, Clinique.

0:12:55.280 --> 0:12:57.800
<v Speaker 7>I'll talk to us about how this works.

0:12:58.960 --> 0:13:01.800
<v Speaker 4>So I would say, you know it is.

0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:04.760
<v Speaker 8>It is a very different experience too, if you would

0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:08.800
<v Speaker 8>experience live shopping on team model in China. So I

0:13:08.800 --> 0:13:12.120
<v Speaker 8>would say the Western approach to video commerce or live

0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:16.760
<v Speaker 8>shopping is much more educational. It's much more driven by

0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:21.000
<v Speaker 8>education and really you know, connecting with the end consumer

0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:24.400
<v Speaker 8>to create a platform to you know, have a better

0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:28.280
<v Speaker 8>discovery phase, increase conversion, you know, build a stronger customer

0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:31.880
<v Speaker 8>relation and releace returns. If I look to China, it's

0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:35.280
<v Speaker 8>very driven by promotions, right, It's very promotion driven and

0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:38.480
<v Speaker 8>very heavy on just pushing the consumer to shop. So

0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:41.280
<v Speaker 8>looking at our customer base, I mean we work with

0:13:41.520 --> 0:13:43.800
<v Speaker 8>a lot of Fortune five hundred companies, a lot of

0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:47.360
<v Speaker 8>them you mentioned, and they are much more so They've

0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:52.000
<v Speaker 8>tapped into our platform and is using Bamboozo technology to really,

0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:57.960
<v Speaker 8>you know, add something that is is more likely to

0:13:58.000 --> 0:14:00.320
<v Speaker 8>look like something you would do on social or what

0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:03.839
<v Speaker 8>you started talking about, rather than just adding a video

0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:06.440
<v Speaker 8>to their website to just sell something. Right, So it's

0:14:06.559 --> 0:14:10.520
<v Speaker 8>much more about adding a layer on top of the

0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:14.200
<v Speaker 8>very static shopping experience rather than just pushing promotion and

0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:17.160
<v Speaker 8>making you know, the end consumers buy something. So I

0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:19.680
<v Speaker 8>always say, in the Western world, you give something to

0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:22.760
<v Speaker 8>the consumer, You give something to them and then you

0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:24.760
<v Speaker 8>ask them to buy. In China you just ask them

0:14:24.800 --> 0:14:28.160
<v Speaker 8>to buy. If you understand that the comparison between really

0:14:28.200 --> 0:14:31.520
<v Speaker 8>how it's working outside.

0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:33.680
<v Speaker 2>Of China, well, I feel like you know the thing

0:14:33.680 --> 0:14:35.120
<v Speaker 2>that in correct me if I'm wrong, Mary, And I'm

0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:37.160
<v Speaker 2>interested to see what you see on the platform. But

0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:41.640
<v Speaker 2>the way that at least I shop online is I

0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:43.680
<v Speaker 2>know what I want and then I go and I

0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:44.760
<v Speaker 2>search for it, I find it.

0:14:44.960 --> 0:14:45.680
<v Speaker 7>I'm the same way.

0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:47.600
<v Speaker 2>It's not like you go and browse, right.

0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:50.080
<v Speaker 7>No, I usually go exactly, it'll compare it to different

0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:51.760
<v Speaker 7>places by what's the cheapest one?

0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:54.320
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, exactly, So you're shopping based on price, but you

0:14:54.400 --> 0:14:57.640
<v Speaker 2>go into it knowing that this is what you want. Mary,

0:14:57.680 --> 0:15:01.040
<v Speaker 2>how do you change that experience? So going online to

0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:03.840
<v Speaker 2>shop is less about what Jess and I do and

0:15:03.920 --> 0:15:06.240
<v Speaker 2>more about like you're walking down Fifth Avenue and you

0:15:06.280 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 2>see something that catches your interest and then go in

0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:08.960
<v Speaker 2>a store.

0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:12.880
<v Speaker 4>I would say it's it's a combination.

0:15:13.160 --> 0:15:16.800
<v Speaker 8>So I would say it's where a product, discovery and

0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:20.000
<v Speaker 8>purchase happens in a single journey. That does make sense

0:15:20.000 --> 0:15:24.520
<v Speaker 8>for you, guys. So what we do with adding a

0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:28.480
<v Speaker 8>video layer on top of an e commerce experience is

0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:31.600
<v Speaker 8>that we really help the brands to bridge the offline

0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:32.720
<v Speaker 8>and the online experience.

0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:33.040
<v Speaker 4>Right.

0:15:33.160 --> 0:15:35.880
<v Speaker 8>So I can give you a great example. So LVMH

0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:38.480
<v Speaker 8>is one of our customers. We work with many of

0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:42.080
<v Speaker 8>the Maison's and we just added so there is using

0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:47.120
<v Speaker 8>our one to one solution to do consultations. So instead

0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:50.080
<v Speaker 8>of you guys going to sex Fifth Avenue and going

0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:53.400
<v Speaker 8>to ther counter and buying something, you could actually book

0:15:53.440 --> 0:15:56.720
<v Speaker 8>that experience through bambooser platform. It would be of course

0:15:56.840 --> 0:15:59.440
<v Speaker 8>we're native platforms, you would never see Bamboosuri. It would

0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.880
<v Speaker 8>be a dr you know, player, just like the conversation

0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:04.800
<v Speaker 8>we're having now on Zoom right, So it would be

0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:07.720
<v Speaker 8>a player where you have a lot of interactivity where

0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:09.960
<v Speaker 8>you can compare products, you can help the customer to

0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:12.480
<v Speaker 8>add to Kart, and then you will go to the

0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:17.960
<v Speaker 8>checkout right. So it's really enriching the customer experience and

0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:21.080
<v Speaker 8>helping them and then you know, we you know, one

0:16:21.120 --> 0:16:23.720
<v Speaker 8>to one solution. For example, with your we actually have

0:16:24.320 --> 0:16:26.920
<v Speaker 8>a virtual try on, so I could actually try on

0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:29.000
<v Speaker 8>the lipstick I want to buy and see how that

0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:31.440
<v Speaker 8>looks on me before I add it to cart. So

0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:37.000
<v Speaker 8>it's really adding the journeys that you guys talked about,

0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:39.760
<v Speaker 8>but combining them in one single journey.

0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:42.680
<v Speaker 7>We only have about thirty seconds left. But based on

0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:44.800
<v Speaker 7>what you're seeing, do you think the economy is headed

0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:47.480
<v Speaker 7>for a recession? On those shopping trends you're viewing.

0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:50.680
<v Speaker 8>Good question, I would say, I mean, we're seeing a

0:16:50.720 --> 0:16:54.480
<v Speaker 8>slowdown in retail overall. It's you know, because of the

0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:56.880
<v Speaker 8>macro and how the economy looks. I would say we're

0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:58.800
<v Speaker 8>seeing that. You know, we're live in most countries and

0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:01.880
<v Speaker 8>work across a lot of more sutiple markets. I would

0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:05.239
<v Speaker 8>say what we see as trends is really you know,

0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:09.359
<v Speaker 8>going more towards a sustainable way of shopping and really

0:17:09.440 --> 0:17:13.000
<v Speaker 8>helping the consumers to make better purchase decisions by adding,

0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:16.359
<v Speaker 8>you know, different type of technologies, ours being one of them.

0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:18.240
<v Speaker 2>Mary Good, I have to leave it there. Thank you

0:17:18.520 --> 0:17:22.399
<v Speaker 2>so much for joining us this afternoon. Mary Garrimani is

0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:27.440
<v Speaker 2>CEO of the online shopping platform live shopping platform Bambooser,

0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:29.679
<v Speaker 2>joining us this evening from Italy.

0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:34.120
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:38.160
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:41.639
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business App, and YouTube. You can also listen

0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:44.840
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0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:48.080
<v Speaker 1>Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:17:49.240 --> 0:17:51.040
<v Speaker 2>Well, a lot of big professional moves come in today.

0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:54.080
<v Speaker 2>Jeff Curry, the prominent commodities analyst known for making bold

0:17:54.119 --> 0:17:57.400
<v Speaker 2>and often bullish pronouncements. Is leaving Golden Sachs Group after

0:17:57.440 --> 0:18:00.520
<v Speaker 2>twenty seven years, and ubs We've happening the leadership of

0:18:00.520 --> 0:18:03.520
<v Speaker 2>its investment banking division as lender presses ahead with its

0:18:03.520 --> 0:18:06.919
<v Speaker 2>integration of former rival Credit Suisse. Joining us now to

0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:09.760
<v Speaker 2>tell us about all these big people moves is Bloomberg

0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:12.600
<v Speaker 2>senior finance reporter shrinad Rajen Shred. Good to see you,

0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:14.000
<v Speaker 2>good to have you with us. I got to tell you.

0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:16.159
<v Speaker 2>I go to your bio page on the Bloomberg terminal,

0:18:16.640 --> 0:18:19.960
<v Speaker 2>and I see the Goldman Commodities Research chief Jeff Curry

0:18:20.000 --> 0:18:23.399
<v Speaker 2>set to leave story. I see b of a wealth

0:18:23.480 --> 0:18:28.560
<v Speaker 2>chief risk officer leaving story. I see Goldman's Lisa Opoku

0:18:28.880 --> 0:18:32.800
<v Speaker 2>joining a recent spate of partner departures. I see Goldman

0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:36.080
<v Speaker 2>Investment chief exits after change is Royal Key unit. Like

0:18:36.119 --> 0:18:37.760
<v Speaker 2>Jess said, I'm starting to see a pattern here with

0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:39.720
<v Speaker 2>Goldman Sachs and a lot of these stories. What's going on?

0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:42.040
<v Speaker 9>Can I say? Covering Wall Street is all about people

0:18:42.040 --> 0:18:42.840
<v Speaker 9>in capitol? Right?

0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:43.240
<v Speaker 1>Yeah?

0:18:43.320 --> 0:18:43.399
<v Speaker 5>Right?

0:18:43.480 --> 0:18:45.960
<v Speaker 9>There you go, all the money, but all the people.

0:18:46.040 --> 0:18:48.480
<v Speaker 2>But is the door revolving like this all the time?

0:18:49.640 --> 0:18:50.479
<v Speaker 7>I would say that.

0:18:50.640 --> 0:18:52.119
<v Speaker 9>You know, when we look at all the names that

0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:53.919
<v Speaker 9>have been reported in the last couple of weeks, this

0:18:54.000 --> 0:18:56.840
<v Speaker 9>is the sixth partner exit out of Goldman. Late July

0:18:56.920 --> 0:18:59.119
<v Speaker 9>early August is not the time when we see a

0:18:59.119 --> 0:19:01.200
<v Speaker 9>pickup in these names. So that has been a bit

0:19:01.240 --> 0:19:01.920
<v Speaker 9>of a surprise.

0:19:02.160 --> 0:19:05.680
<v Speaker 7>Do we know why? Like what the catalyst is, different reasons.

0:19:05.920 --> 0:19:09.240
<v Speaker 9>You can't fit them all under one umbrella. There have

0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:12.359
<v Speaker 9>been a number of people like Julian Salisbury. Those were

0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:14.879
<v Speaker 9>people on the rise inside Goman. Those were handpicked by

0:19:14.920 --> 0:19:18.240
<v Speaker 9>the CEO for better, bigger roles, and they suddenly leave.

0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:20.960
<v Speaker 9>It's quite interesting. On the other hand, you have people

0:19:21.040 --> 0:19:24.560
<v Speaker 9>like Jeff Curry, who's been there nearly thirty years, who's

0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:26.719
<v Speaker 9>done all that you need to do in that space,

0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:30.040
<v Speaker 9>who is the de facto celebrity in the world of

0:19:30.119 --> 0:19:33.919
<v Speaker 9>commodity analysts, right that's the most recognizable name. He's the

0:19:33.960 --> 0:19:38.080
<v Speaker 9>most recognizable brand out there. So you can't really tack

0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:41.600
<v Speaker 9>him on to some of the other departures, but it

0:19:41.760 --> 0:19:45.639
<v Speaker 9>is a serious brand name inside Goman, and his departure

0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:48.240
<v Speaker 9>will have an impact on their franchise.

0:19:48.880 --> 0:19:52.040
<v Speaker 7>And tell us about who's taking his place.

0:19:52.920 --> 0:19:55.280
<v Speaker 9>You sometimes appreciate the value of a person when you

0:19:55.320 --> 0:19:59.439
<v Speaker 9>realize that he's being replaced not by one person, but

0:19:59.440 --> 0:20:00.240
<v Speaker 9>by three people.

0:20:00.880 --> 0:20:03.080
<v Speaker 7>And that's what stuck out to me. There's three or

0:20:03.080 --> 0:20:04.359
<v Speaker 7>four different names on there.

0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:07.119
<v Speaker 9>It's also entirely possible Goldman just doesn't want a broad

0:20:07.160 --> 0:20:09.760
<v Speaker 9>head of commodities research anymore, and that's why there's someone

0:20:09.800 --> 0:20:13.240
<v Speaker 9>who runs there are oils research business, they're natural gas research,

0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:17.920
<v Speaker 9>they're metals research. Now Goldman and Commodities. It's a storied franchise,

0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:21.600
<v Speaker 9>it's a storied name. It's it's it's been a name

0:20:21.680 --> 0:20:24.520
<v Speaker 9>everyone in the market looks that. Pre crisis, Goldman, Sachs

0:20:24.560 --> 0:20:26.960
<v Speaker 9>and Morgan Stanley used to be known as the Wall

0:20:27.000 --> 0:20:30.400
<v Speaker 9>Street refiners just because of sort of the physical and

0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:33.040
<v Speaker 9>financial trailing they used to do. The structure in the

0:20:33.040 --> 0:20:35.520
<v Speaker 9>shape of that business has changed a lot, but commodity

0:20:35.560 --> 0:20:37.720
<v Speaker 9>is still a big engine, a big driver of the

0:20:37.760 --> 0:20:41.720
<v Speaker 9>Goldman trading machine, which by the way, is pretty damn

0:20:41.760 --> 0:20:44.320
<v Speaker 9>good on Wall Street and it is one of the

0:20:44.320 --> 0:20:48.320
<v Speaker 9>best out there. So anytime you hear from the research

0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:50.800
<v Speaker 9>folks at Goldman, they may not always be right, but

0:20:50.840 --> 0:20:52.240
<v Speaker 9>people certainly want to pay attention.

0:20:52.800 --> 0:20:53.560
<v Speaker 2>Where's he going?

0:20:53.680 --> 0:20:56.160
<v Speaker 9>Do we know as of now, it looks like he doesn't.

0:20:56.200 --> 0:20:58.520
<v Speaker 9>He's not taking on any other job immediately. He's spending

0:20:58.520 --> 0:21:01.679
<v Speaker 9>some time with family, has two young kids. So you know,

0:21:01.840 --> 0:21:04.800
<v Speaker 9>after almost thirty years in a high pressure job where

0:21:04.840 --> 0:21:07.359
<v Speaker 9>everyone's paying attention to everything, you say, maybe it is

0:21:07.440 --> 0:21:08.480
<v Speaker 9>well deserved rest for him.

0:21:09.560 --> 0:21:12.080
<v Speaker 2>You're here, I have to agree with that.

0:21:12.240 --> 0:21:14.160
<v Speaker 7>When I wanted to switch it over and just talk

0:21:14.200 --> 0:21:19.119
<v Speaker 7>about the UVS revamp in leadership, because while Tim was away,

0:21:19.400 --> 0:21:21.439
<v Speaker 7>we did have that shake up when it came to

0:21:21.480 --> 0:21:24.760
<v Speaker 7>the regional banks, but then also heard about that. But

0:21:24.800 --> 0:21:27.720
<v Speaker 7>then also not just the smaller banks, you did have

0:21:28.119 --> 0:21:31.879
<v Speaker 7>this banking giant UBS that did buy it's troubled rival,

0:21:32.000 --> 0:21:37.000
<v Speaker 7>Credit Sueeze. So when I'm seeing these leadership changes at ubs,

0:21:37.160 --> 0:21:39.479
<v Speaker 7>how much of this is playing it into it and

0:21:39.560 --> 0:21:43.040
<v Speaker 7>really impacted because of what had happened within Credit Sueeze.

0:21:43.080 --> 0:21:45.840
<v Speaker 9>Oh, it's all about that right now, You've made this

0:21:45.880 --> 0:21:50.960
<v Speaker 9>big decision Switzerland. The banking landscape in Switzerland has been

0:21:51.000 --> 0:21:53.520
<v Speaker 9>altered and altered dramatically when you have this combination of

0:21:53.600 --> 0:21:56.239
<v Speaker 9>UBS and Credit Squeeze. Now what's important is to make

0:21:56.280 --> 0:21:58.440
<v Speaker 9>sure that the merger goes smoothly, make sure that they're

0:21:58.480 --> 0:22:02.280
<v Speaker 9>able to execute on the indig because a lot hinges

0:22:02.400 --> 0:22:04.639
<v Speaker 9>on that, and part of that, when you have this

0:22:05.280 --> 0:22:09.280
<v Speaker 9>gigantic memo that names forty different people into various leadership positions,

0:22:10.600 --> 0:22:12.760
<v Speaker 9>it obviously forces a lot of homework on people just

0:22:12.760 --> 0:22:15.080
<v Speaker 9>to just to get their arms around what all the

0:22:15.200 --> 0:22:18.520
<v Speaker 9>changes are. But in some ways, there's also ubs reiterating

0:22:18.560 --> 0:22:20.880
<v Speaker 9>what their focus areas are, what their interest areas are,

0:22:21.080 --> 0:22:23.040
<v Speaker 9>and you have about a dozen or so Credit Suitez

0:22:23.080 --> 0:22:26.640
<v Speaker 9>investment bank is also getting roles, which is to say,

0:22:26.840 --> 0:22:29.800
<v Speaker 9>not everyone who's in investment banking at Credit Suitez would

0:22:29.800 --> 0:22:33.200
<v Speaker 9>be undesirable at ubs. They certainly want to keep the

0:22:33.320 --> 0:22:34.080
<v Speaker 9>cream of the crop.

0:22:34.760 --> 0:22:34.920
<v Speaker 7>Shre.

0:22:35.560 --> 0:22:37.720
<v Speaker 2>I'm thinking back to the conversations that we've had with

0:22:37.760 --> 0:22:40.520
<v Speaker 2>you over the last two or three years, and if

0:22:40.520 --> 0:22:42.880
<v Speaker 2>we kind of think about them in terms of themes,

0:22:43.000 --> 0:22:47.480
<v Speaker 2>we can think about the talent, the talent wars of

0:22:47.720 --> 0:22:51.480
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty and twenty twenty one. We can think about burnout,

0:22:51.560 --> 0:22:52.960
<v Speaker 2>and we can think about over the last couple of

0:22:53.000 --> 0:22:56.080
<v Speaker 2>years on Wall Street, people going to crypto firms or

0:22:56.520 --> 0:22:59.560
<v Speaker 2>going to join private equity firms, in some cases joining

0:22:59.600 --> 0:23:02.440
<v Speaker 2>tech firms. Where's the pole coming from today.

0:23:02.480 --> 0:23:04.760
<v Speaker 9>Twenty twenty one, we're time to be alive. When all

0:23:04.800 --> 0:23:06.760
<v Speaker 9>the analysts could go out there and say, hey, we

0:23:06.840 --> 0:23:08.760
<v Speaker 9>might be the junior most people, but you better pay

0:23:08.840 --> 0:23:10.040
<v Speaker 9>us a lot of money.

0:23:10.200 --> 0:23:13.480
<v Speaker 2>Look at it, Look at the PowerPoint deck that we created.

0:23:13.359 --> 0:23:15.640
<v Speaker 9>Exactly right now, it's all about police. Let us stay

0:23:15.640 --> 0:23:16.200
<v Speaker 9>in our jobs.

0:23:17.040 --> 0:23:17.960
<v Speaker 2>How the tables have turned.

0:23:18.000 --> 0:23:21.639
<v Speaker 9>There are absolutely a lot of opportunities out there right today,

0:23:21.960 --> 0:23:26.120
<v Speaker 9>but the difference being if previously two years ago, almost

0:23:26.200 --> 0:23:30.120
<v Speaker 9>anyone could find a role because everyone was all on

0:23:30.280 --> 0:23:32.639
<v Speaker 9>hands on deck. There were so many deals happening, so

0:23:32.680 --> 0:23:36.199
<v Speaker 9>many transactions happening, you needed to put bodies to work.

0:23:36.600 --> 0:23:40.280
<v Speaker 9>Now the opportunities are more geared towards the top performers,

0:23:40.400 --> 0:23:43.600
<v Speaker 9>those who are doing really well, those who are absolutely desired.

0:23:43.840 --> 0:23:45.520
<v Speaker 9>It is not that you just show up, put your

0:23:45.640 --> 0:23:47.600
<v Speaker 9>arm up, hand up and say I want a job.

0:23:47.640 --> 0:23:50.320
<v Speaker 9>You will get one. And I think that's the big difference.

0:23:50.520 --> 0:23:54.720
<v Speaker 9>So you will probably still see headlines of talented names

0:23:54.800 --> 0:23:59.600
<v Speaker 9>and brand names going elsewhere, but it's more about who

0:23:59.600 --> 0:24:01.959
<v Speaker 9>they are than what seat they're taking on.

0:24:02.200 --> 0:24:04.719
<v Speaker 7>I feel like this is the Hunger Games, right especially

0:24:04.760 --> 0:24:07.440
<v Speaker 7>when you think about how competitive that type of environment

0:24:07.600 --> 0:24:10.320
<v Speaker 7>is what anecdotally do you hear whenever you speak to

0:24:10.320 --> 0:24:13.920
<v Speaker 7>your sources, especially if there's maybe people earlier in their

0:24:13.960 --> 0:24:17.760
<v Speaker 7>careers that are trying to get to that point.

0:24:18.600 --> 0:24:20.280
<v Speaker 9>You know, all of this goes through in a cycle.

0:24:20.320 --> 0:24:22.680
<v Speaker 9>I still vividly remember about two years ago we spoke

0:24:22.720 --> 0:24:25.720
<v Speaker 9>to the former CEO of Goldman Sacks, Lloyd Blankfind, and

0:24:26.200 --> 0:24:29.000
<v Speaker 9>he was you know, he made a very pointed reference

0:24:29.040 --> 0:24:30.879
<v Speaker 9>at that time. It because remember a lot of the

0:24:31.040 --> 0:24:34.080
<v Speaker 9>junior banker agitation caught a lot of attention because of

0:24:34.119 --> 0:24:37.560
<v Speaker 9>what happened inside Goldman Sachs, the PowerPoint deck that Tim

0:24:37.680 --> 0:24:41.160
<v Speaker 9>was talking about, and blank Find was very clear back

0:24:41.240 --> 0:24:43.840
<v Speaker 9>then that all these things go in a cycle, and

0:24:43.880 --> 0:24:45.480
<v Speaker 9>you know, you might feel like you have the upper

0:24:45.480 --> 0:24:48.520
<v Speaker 9>hand right now, but that will not always be the case.

0:24:49.000 --> 0:24:52.840
<v Speaker 9>And he was right. The cycle has turned. It has

0:24:52.920 --> 0:24:55.480
<v Speaker 9>become harder at a lot more people are sitting around

0:24:55.480 --> 0:24:58.800
<v Speaker 9>twiddling their thumbs because deal activity has completely fallen off

0:24:58.800 --> 0:25:00.960
<v Speaker 9>a cliff. Which is why I sort of like go

0:25:01.040 --> 0:25:03.760
<v Speaker 9>back to the earlier point I made is now you

0:25:03.920 --> 0:25:06.639
<v Speaker 9>really need to stand out. Just because you showed up

0:25:06.640 --> 0:25:09.959
<v Speaker 9>and have a role does not mean you are immediately

0:25:10.000 --> 0:25:13.480
<v Speaker 9>wanted in all corners, inside the bank, outside the bank,

0:25:13.520 --> 0:25:15.960
<v Speaker 9>outside your firm. You really have to be able to

0:25:16.000 --> 0:25:17.439
<v Speaker 9>stand out to be wanted.

0:25:17.440 --> 0:25:19.840
<v Speaker 2>Now, what's the projection look like.

0:25:21.359 --> 0:25:24.600
<v Speaker 9>We've been talking about green shoots out there, right We've

0:25:24.600 --> 0:25:27.160
<v Speaker 9>been talking about a pickup in activity the first seven

0:25:27.160 --> 0:25:32.040
<v Speaker 9>months of the year, investment, banking, the deal deal environment's sluggish.

0:25:32.359 --> 0:25:34.920
<v Speaker 9>But the challenge with talking about green shoots right now

0:25:34.960 --> 0:25:37.520
<v Speaker 9>is we're already in the second week of August. You're

0:25:37.560 --> 0:25:40.879
<v Speaker 9>heading into the summer doldrums. So you're not going to

0:25:40.880 --> 0:25:42.760
<v Speaker 9>see a ton of deals in the rest of August,

0:25:43.200 --> 0:25:46.200
<v Speaker 9>September post Labor Day, you know, as New York gets

0:25:46.200 --> 0:25:48.960
<v Speaker 9>off it's post US Open, tennis high you're hoping that

0:25:49.000 --> 0:25:52.240
<v Speaker 9>there will be people out there willing to do deals again.

0:25:52.400 --> 0:25:55.160
<v Speaker 2>You read my mind. My last question is about tennis.

0:25:55.359 --> 0:25:58.000
<v Speaker 9>But let's point out one important thing though. You have

0:25:58.160 --> 0:26:01.760
<v Speaker 9>that the possibility of government shutdown again. You know, there's

0:26:01.760 --> 0:26:04.560
<v Speaker 9>sort of Washington Games being played again, and that deadline

0:26:04.640 --> 0:26:06.960
<v Speaker 9>is October one. That could throw a spanner on the

0:26:06.960 --> 0:26:10.199
<v Speaker 9>works for September. And if that's actually something that drags on,

0:26:10.320 --> 0:26:12.280
<v Speaker 9>let's hope it does not. But if that becomes a

0:26:12.320 --> 0:26:15.560
<v Speaker 9>bit of an issue, then you're again heading towards you're in. Unfortunately,

0:26:15.600 --> 0:26:18.720
<v Speaker 9>twenty twenty three might be a wash, just like twenty

0:26:18.720 --> 0:26:19.119
<v Speaker 9>twenty two.

0:26:19.200 --> 0:26:21.480
<v Speaker 2>Okay, thirty seconds, we have to talk about what's gonna

0:26:21.480 --> 0:26:22.960
<v Speaker 2>happen at the US Open this year. This is your

0:26:22.960 --> 0:26:24.800
<v Speaker 2>favorite month because it's the beginning of the US Open

0:26:24.840 --> 0:26:26.439
<v Speaker 2>and you spend a lot of time there. We'll be

0:26:26.480 --> 0:26:29.000
<v Speaker 2>there for Bloomberg Radio. What do you think for the

0:26:29.280 --> 0:26:31.280
<v Speaker 2>finals this year? For the on the men's side, in

0:26:31.240 --> 0:26:32.800
<v Speaker 2>Alcoraz Djokovic final.

0:26:32.720 --> 0:26:35.600
<v Speaker 9>Ah, that would be delightful, wouldn't it. You have you

0:26:35.720 --> 0:26:38.000
<v Speaker 9>already saw what the two of them can bring into

0:26:38.119 --> 0:26:41.440
<v Speaker 9>consecutive Grand Slams. Now, the French Open sadly curtailed a

0:26:41.440 --> 0:26:44.760
<v Speaker 9>little bit because of injury, and definitely they epic at Wimbledon,

0:26:44.840 --> 0:26:47.720
<v Speaker 9>and we saw the exploits of Alcaraz in New York.

0:26:47.760 --> 0:26:50.040
<v Speaker 9>He certainly won a lot of fans in this city.

0:26:50.119 --> 0:26:52.720
<v Speaker 9>So if this city can get an al Karaz Djokovic final,

0:26:53.400 --> 0:26:55.679
<v Speaker 9>we'll take that, even if we've never gotten a Federal

0:26:55.760 --> 0:26:56.000
<v Speaker 9>at all.

0:26:56.160 --> 0:26:58.400
<v Speaker 2>I'd like to see Tiafo in there as well. He's

0:26:58.560 --> 0:27:01.160
<v Speaker 2>such a crowd pleaserre on the women's side, Jessica Pagoula

0:27:01.160 --> 0:27:04.080
<v Speaker 2>would be awesome too, you know, rooting for the American

0:27:04.119 --> 0:27:07.159
<v Speaker 2>from Buffalo, That would be very cool, should we not?

0:27:07.200 --> 0:27:08.879
<v Speaker 2>Oajin Good to have you with us.

0:27:09.359 --> 0:27:12.320
<v Speaker 10>A Bromac.

0:27:13.000 --> 0:27:13.680
<v Speaker 2>A journal.

0:27:14.680 --> 0:27:15.119
<v Speaker 10>Now about you?

0:27:15.160 --> 0:27:15.720
<v Speaker 7>Let me drive?

0:27:15.960 --> 0:27:17.480
<v Speaker 2>Oh no, no, no, no, who's going?

0:27:19.040 --> 0:27:21.280
<v Speaker 1>Honry? Please, I'll do the gravel.

0:27:22.080 --> 0:27:23.240
<v Speaker 7>Wait, I want to drive.

0:27:25.480 --> 0:27:27.359
<v Speaker 2>It's a good question that try.

0:27:30.160 --> 0:27:34.960
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the clothes well by an

0:27:35.359 --> 0:27:36.600
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio.

0:27:37.440 --> 0:27:39.639
<v Speaker 2>It's hard to believe it's about that time. We're just

0:27:39.640 --> 0:27:42.200
<v Speaker 2>shy of eighteen minutes away from the clothes of equity

0:27:42.200 --> 0:27:44.679
<v Speaker 2>trading here on this Monday afternoon. And what a Monday

0:27:44.880 --> 0:27:47.280
<v Speaker 2>it is. The Dow Jones Industrial average higher by more

0:27:47.280 --> 0:27:49.760
<v Speaker 2>than one percent, the SMB five hundred dire by close

0:27:49.800 --> 0:27:52.000
<v Speaker 2>to eight tenths of one percent, of the Nasdaq moving

0:27:52.760 --> 0:27:56.520
<v Speaker 2>higher by more than four tenths of one percent. For

0:27:56.800 --> 0:27:58.960
<v Speaker 2>some commentary, not just on today's trade, but on the

0:27:59.000 --> 0:28:02.480
<v Speaker 2>macroeconomic environ in and really how he's deploying clients money.

0:28:02.560 --> 0:28:05.760
<v Speaker 2>Let's turn now to Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at

0:28:05.840 --> 0:28:09.600
<v Speaker 2>CIBC Private Wealth Management. Dave, good to have you back

0:28:09.600 --> 0:28:12.480
<v Speaker 2>with us. How are you I'm good, tim are you. Yeah,

0:28:12.520 --> 0:28:15.879
<v Speaker 2>we're doing pretty well. Thanks having a good summer. Thank you. Uh,

0:28:16.160 --> 0:28:19.840
<v Speaker 2>the US equity market certainly having a good six months.

0:28:19.960 --> 0:28:22.439
<v Speaker 2>How do things feel to you right now? Sentiment wise,

0:28:24.600 --> 0:28:25.359
<v Speaker 2>It's interesting.

0:28:25.560 --> 0:28:29.000
<v Speaker 10>I think the you know, the first five months of

0:28:29.040 --> 0:28:32.399
<v Speaker 10>the year, obviously, we're tremendous in the sensitive you look

0:28:32.440 --> 0:28:35.000
<v Speaker 10>at the you know five month returns on the SMP,

0:28:35.359 --> 0:28:37.800
<v Speaker 10>you know, phenomenal start to the year. But as we know,

0:28:37.880 --> 0:28:42.080
<v Speaker 10>it was driven by that handful of stocks that had moonshots,

0:28:42.120 --> 0:28:46.320
<v Speaker 10>and had that environment continued, I would have been concerned about,

0:28:46.560 --> 0:28:49.760
<v Speaker 10>you know, an outright bubble developing in the market because

0:28:49.760 --> 0:28:53.600
<v Speaker 10>it was so unbalanced. I'm interested and I think pleased

0:28:53.600 --> 0:28:56.360
<v Speaker 10>to see you. In the last two months, it's been different.

0:28:56.600 --> 0:29:00.120
<v Speaker 10>A lot of those moonshot stocks have slowed down, some

0:29:00.120 --> 0:29:02.400
<v Speaker 10>of them have corrected a little bit. And if you

0:29:02.400 --> 0:29:04.560
<v Speaker 10>look over the last couple of months, the equal weighted

0:29:04.720 --> 0:29:07.000
<v Speaker 10>S and P has actually done better than the market

0:29:07.000 --> 0:29:11.160
<v Speaker 10>cap weighted version, indicative of more sort of balance in

0:29:11.240 --> 0:29:14.320
<v Speaker 10>the market. So to me, the kind of the technicals

0:29:14.560 --> 0:29:18.560
<v Speaker 10>feel better today than they did, say back in April

0:29:18.600 --> 0:29:18.880
<v Speaker 10>or May.

0:29:19.160 --> 0:29:21.240
<v Speaker 7>And you bring up the last two months, especially with

0:29:21.320 --> 0:29:23.680
<v Speaker 7>the equal weighted index for the S and P five coundry,

0:29:23.720 --> 0:29:27.080
<v Speaker 7>but also more cyclically oriented sectors in the market, like

0:29:27.160 --> 0:29:30.960
<v Speaker 7>industrials materials picking up some speed here. What's your view

0:29:31.000 --> 0:29:33.760
<v Speaker 7>as far as your second half outlook after we saw

0:29:33.800 --> 0:29:36.440
<v Speaker 7>such outperformance in the first half by tech and growth stocks.

0:29:37.800 --> 0:29:41.920
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, again, I think we'll see more balance in terms

0:29:41.960 --> 0:29:44.000
<v Speaker 10>of relative performance. But the other thing I think we'll

0:29:44.000 --> 0:29:47.440
<v Speaker 10>see is we'll see a market that, frankly is more

0:29:47.680 --> 0:29:50.360
<v Speaker 10>is more challenged and halting and maybe even have a

0:29:50.400 --> 0:29:54.120
<v Speaker 10>somewhat of a pullback and correct or correction here sometime

0:29:54.120 --> 0:29:57.400
<v Speaker 10>in the next few months. And that's simply because while

0:29:58.080 --> 0:30:01.640
<v Speaker 10>many have thrown overboard the idea that there's a risk

0:30:01.680 --> 0:30:06.240
<v Speaker 10>of recession, I unfortunately think there still is and in

0:30:06.280 --> 0:30:09.400
<v Speaker 10>the short term anyway, that'll be you know, a potential

0:30:09.600 --> 0:30:12.040
<v Speaker 10>source of a stumble by the market, because of course,

0:30:12.800 --> 0:30:13.360
<v Speaker 10>question right.

0:30:13.720 --> 0:30:16.280
<v Speaker 2>Talk more about that, Dave. What what is giving you

0:30:16.920 --> 0:30:19.680
<v Speaker 2>the notion that we're not out of the woods yet?

0:30:20.280 --> 0:30:24.400
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, I mean a lot of the data that investors

0:30:24.440 --> 0:30:29.920
<v Speaker 10>have taken comfort from lately, UH retail sales last quarters, GDP,

0:30:30.240 --> 0:30:35.040
<v Speaker 10>employment and so forth, are absolutely solid. The problem is

0:30:35.080 --> 0:30:37.840
<v Speaker 10>they're they're coincident indicators. They tell you what happened today

0:30:38.080 --> 0:30:39.920
<v Speaker 10>or what happened in the recent past. They have no

0:30:40.360 --> 0:30:43.400
<v Speaker 10>predictive value. They don't tell you anything about the future.

0:30:43.440 --> 0:30:45.360
<v Speaker 10>And when we look at the things that are more

0:30:45.440 --> 0:30:49.400
<v Speaker 10>leading indicators, most of them are kind of troubling. The

0:30:49.440 --> 0:30:54.640
<v Speaker 10>most obvious is the you know, intensely and persistently inverted

0:30:54.680 --> 0:30:58.840
<v Speaker 10>yield curve number one, the index of leading economic indicators,

0:30:59.080 --> 0:31:01.360
<v Speaker 10>which can give off all all kinds of false positives,

0:31:01.760 --> 0:31:05.000
<v Speaker 10>but not at extreme readings. And it's added extreme reading

0:31:05.240 --> 0:31:07.920
<v Speaker 10>and just the general idea. We know that, you know,

0:31:07.960 --> 0:31:10.520
<v Speaker 10>the FED has raised rates more than five hundred basis

0:31:10.560 --> 0:31:13.960
<v Speaker 10>points in a call it a sixteen month period, We've

0:31:14.000 --> 0:31:17.360
<v Speaker 10>not begun to feel even you know, the minimal effects

0:31:17.400 --> 0:31:20.240
<v Speaker 10>of that that lies ahead, the sort of anti growth

0:31:20.280 --> 0:31:24.080
<v Speaker 10>impact of tight money lies ahead. So the leading indicators

0:31:24.160 --> 0:31:26.960
<v Speaker 10>say there's still something to be concerned about with the economy.

0:31:27.000 --> 0:31:30.080
<v Speaker 2>In other words, the long and variable lag of higher

0:31:30.080 --> 0:31:31.080
<v Speaker 2>interest rates has not been.

0:31:30.960 --> 0:31:34.239
<v Speaker 9>Felt, only a little bit.

0:31:34.320 --> 0:31:35.040
<v Speaker 10>There's more to come.

0:31:35.200 --> 0:31:37.160
<v Speaker 2>Like what percentage have been felt in your estimation?

0:31:37.920 --> 0:31:40.000
<v Speaker 10>Oh, I don't know, a quarter maybe, okay.

0:31:40.040 --> 0:31:42.800
<v Speaker 7>Okay, So then how are you positioning? What are you

0:31:42.840 --> 0:31:43.760
<v Speaker 7>buying What are you selling?

0:31:45.400 --> 0:31:48.560
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, generally, you know, recently we've been i'd say we've

0:31:48.560 --> 0:31:51.600
<v Speaker 10>been doing more sort of trimming and adding to portfolios.

0:31:52.040 --> 0:31:54.080
<v Speaker 10>We've been trimming, you know, some of the high flyers

0:31:54.120 --> 0:31:57.320
<v Speaker 10>that have done extraordinarily well earlier in the year and

0:31:57.320 --> 0:32:02.120
<v Speaker 10>are now at higher evaluation level. And we've been adding

0:32:02.160 --> 0:32:05.560
<v Speaker 10>to the things that you know, are unloved but inexpensive

0:32:05.560 --> 0:32:09.600
<v Speaker 10>in the markets, things like healthcare, utilities, roots.

0:32:09.600 --> 0:32:13.160
<v Speaker 7>Some more defensive corners of the market, somewhat.

0:32:12.760 --> 0:32:15.280
<v Speaker 10>More defensive, but but but we think of them. We're

0:32:15.280 --> 0:32:19.880
<v Speaker 10>more interested in the valuation than the defensive characteristics.

0:32:19.160 --> 0:32:19.760
<v Speaker 1>If you will.

0:32:19.800 --> 0:32:22.440
<v Speaker 7>So, then if we do see a pullback five ten,

0:32:23.080 --> 0:32:23.520
<v Speaker 7>what are you.

0:32:23.480 --> 0:32:29.640
<v Speaker 10>Buying, Well, it'll depend where the pullback is and and

0:32:29.480 --> 0:32:33.640
<v Speaker 10>and where they are. It's you know, a lot of

0:32:33.680 --> 0:32:36.040
<v Speaker 10>the names that that that soared in the first five

0:32:36.080 --> 0:32:37.600
<v Speaker 10>months of the year. It's not that we don't like

0:32:37.640 --> 0:32:40.320
<v Speaker 10>those names, in fact, we own some of them. It's

0:32:40.360 --> 0:32:42.120
<v Speaker 10>it's the price you pay for them. If we have

0:32:42.200 --> 0:32:45.600
<v Speaker 10>a correction that focuses on a lot of those higher

0:32:45.640 --> 0:32:49.200
<v Speaker 10>growth names and they have meaningful pullbacks, we you know,

0:32:49.280 --> 0:32:52.400
<v Speaker 10>we'll be buyers there of the higher quality names at

0:32:52.440 --> 0:32:54.040
<v Speaker 10>a more appropriate price.

0:32:54.440 --> 0:32:58.000
<v Speaker 2>If a client comes to you with a lot of

0:32:58.040 --> 0:32:59.600
<v Speaker 2>new money, how are you deploying it.

0:33:02.440 --> 0:33:05.959
<v Speaker 10>We're deploying it, you know, slowly. On the equity side,

0:33:06.800 --> 0:33:09.360
<v Speaker 10>you know, it's important when you're allocating money not to

0:33:09.440 --> 0:33:11.400
<v Speaker 10>make all or nothing bets. You know, don't say how

0:33:11.400 --> 0:33:13.480
<v Speaker 10>we're not going to invest in anything because we know

0:33:13.560 --> 0:33:16.720
<v Speaker 10>there's a correction around the corner. You can wait forever

0:33:16.800 --> 0:33:18.600
<v Speaker 10>for that to happen. At the same time, you don't

0:33:18.760 --> 0:33:21.440
<v Speaker 10>throw it all into the market. So we've been been

0:33:21.560 --> 0:33:26.040
<v Speaker 10>counseling patients putting money to work slowly over the over

0:33:26.080 --> 0:33:29.400
<v Speaker 10>the over the weeks and months, with an emphasis on

0:33:29.400 --> 0:33:33.880
<v Speaker 10>on stocks that have dividend growth potential, high quality names.

0:33:33.920 --> 0:33:37.280
<v Speaker 10>And there will be a place in a growth oriented

0:33:37.520 --> 0:33:43.080
<v Speaker 10>investor's portfolio for growth oriented stocks, but only at the

0:33:43.160 --> 0:33:45.000
<v Speaker 10>right price, and a lot of them aren't there right now.

0:33:45.040 --> 0:33:47.200
<v Speaker 7>What's the top question you hear from clients.

0:33:50.000 --> 0:33:53.080
<v Speaker 10>It's probably still about the FED. What are they going

0:33:53.160 --> 0:33:56.760
<v Speaker 10>to do next? I would say that said that's been

0:33:56.800 --> 0:33:59.120
<v Speaker 10>pretty much the case for the last year of our

0:33:59.200 --> 0:34:02.280
<v Speaker 10>view there is that they're done raising rates. They're still

0:34:02.320 --> 0:34:04.480
<v Speaker 10>going to talk as if they might, but we think

0:34:04.480 --> 0:34:07.240
<v Speaker 10>they're done, and again that's consistent with our forecast that

0:34:08.000 --> 0:34:09.920
<v Speaker 10>core inflation is going to come down quite a bit

0:34:09.960 --> 0:34:12.920
<v Speaker 10>of the next six months and their risk of recessions, so.

0:34:12.840 --> 0:34:14.440
<v Speaker 7>They're more optimistic about inflation.

0:34:15.920 --> 0:34:18.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I will, Dave real quick. We only have thirty

0:34:18.280 --> 0:34:20.920
<v Speaker 2>seconds left. If they're done raising rates, how long do

0:34:21.000 --> 0:34:22.200
<v Speaker 2>they hold them here?

0:34:23.280 --> 0:34:26.040
<v Speaker 10>Well, the futures markets tell you they don't. They don't

0:34:26.080 --> 0:34:29.640
<v Speaker 10>cut rates until March and then do it. You know,

0:34:29.760 --> 0:34:32.360
<v Speaker 10>have an accelerated number of cuts later next year. Because

0:34:32.360 --> 0:34:34.480
<v Speaker 10>of our economic outlook, I think that first cut will

0:34:34.480 --> 0:34:36.279
<v Speaker 10>come before March.

0:34:36.640 --> 0:34:39.040
<v Speaker 2>All right, first cut before March.

0:34:39.640 --> 0:34:39.920
<v Speaker 10>All right.

0:34:39.960 --> 0:34:41.680
<v Speaker 2>We're going to have you back on before then, see

0:34:41.680 --> 0:34:44.120
<v Speaker 2>if you've updated your call at all. Really appreciate you

0:34:44.200 --> 0:34:48.239
<v Speaker 2>joining us this afternoon. Dave Donabedian, Chief investment Officer at

0:34:48.360 --> 0:34:50.680
<v Speaker 2>CIBC Private Wealth Management.

0:34:51.080 --> 0:34:54.880
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. I'll attle, Apple,

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