1 00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:03,800 Speaker 1: Hello friends, I'm Chris Welsh and this is Fantasy Pros. 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:05,920 Speaker 1: Thank you for coming back or maybe you're locking in 3 00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:08,240 Speaker 1: for the first time, no matter what your activity is, 4 00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:12,280 Speaker 1: I today have got five trade candidates to discuss with you. 5 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:14,640 Speaker 1: A few were trading away and then a few we're 6 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: trying to buy right now. As always, make sure you're 7 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:20,159 Speaker 1: subscribed to the channel and hit those notifications so you 8 00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: know right when we drop a new video or we're 9 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: going live on the channel. While you're at it, make 10 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 1: sure to go to Fantasypros dot com and sign up 11 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:29,639 Speaker 1: for a premium account today to get access to some 12 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 1: of the most powerful tools in fantasy baseball. Plus, you'll 13 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:36,479 Speaker 1: be able to join our discord for all the amazing 14 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:38,960 Speaker 1: channels chats, and you can join in on the home 15 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: run contest plus a ton more. Go to Fantasypros dot 16 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 1: com today. Okay, now that we got our cards on 17 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:50,560 Speaker 1: the table, let's start dealing trades that you have got 18 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 1: to start exploring right now. Coming in at number five, 19 00:00:54,680 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 1: Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh Say hello to the highest 20 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 1: qualified BABBB in all of baseball at five hundred of 21 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 1: all the qualified batters with a four hundred or higher babbub. 22 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 1: No one has a higher K percentage. Fun fact, the 23 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 1: next closest is his teammate in at Castianos. Marsh is 24 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 1: hitting well over three point fifty for the Phillies, but 25 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: has a massive expected batting average decline, whereas batting average 26 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 1: would be two forty according to that XBA, which that 27 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 1: is the second biggest difference in all of baseball. The 28 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 1: same goes with his slugging percentage numbers, as his expected 29 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:36,279 Speaker 1: slug is two hundred points lower than what it currently 30 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 1: sits at. Bottom line, Marsh is playing well, but the 31 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 1: regression monster is coming. Does that mean he's going to 32 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:45,759 Speaker 1: go back to the waiver wire? No, not necessarily. He's 33 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 1: still making positive changes and barreling more. He's hitting the 34 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 1: ball harder, but his strikeout percentage being almost thirty percent. 35 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 1: With all of this, luck really could get messy. But Welsh, 36 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 1: what am I going to get for Brandon Marsh? I 37 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 1: don't know, friends, but go check around. I will acknowledge 38 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: that Marsh could be one of these players that I 39 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 1: talk about. I call them the limbo players, where the 40 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: return of what you can get in a trade might 41 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 1: not actually be worth what you're losing in the production 42 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 1: of what he's giving you. Now, it's a fine balance 43 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 1: of figuring out who those players are. Jared Keelnick has 44 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 1: kind of set in that sat in that territory that 45 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 1: seems to be moving in that different direction, though, So 46 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 1: check around. Maybe someone's buying that three p fifty nine 47 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:31,639 Speaker 1: batting average and you could pick up a back end 48 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 1: pitcher for the rotation, or you can feel an injury 49 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 1: need elsewhere, because there are plenty of those. But either way, 50 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 1: as good and as cool as it's been to see 51 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 1: Brandon Marsh succeed, there's going to be some regression and 52 00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:46,360 Speaker 1: that's going to be the outlier between him still being 53 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 1: a top outfielder in a five outfielder league and sitting 54 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 1: on the waiver wire coming in at number four. Cleveland 55 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 1: Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber, stop me if I've said 56 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 1: this one before, but we said this last year, maybe 57 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 1: even said this earlier this year, and he kind of 58 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 1: shut everybody up. Baber saw a lot of diminishing advanced 59 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 1: stats last year, like his v low, his spin numbers. 60 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 1: They were staring at us in the face, and he 61 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 1: just kind of fought through it and ended up with 62 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,920 Speaker 1: a two eight eight ERA and thirteen wins. Very solid. 63 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 1: Maybe he'll do it again, but he's showing VLO decreases again, 64 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 1: his fastballs now giving up a three hundred plus batting 65 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 1: average now. His slider is a little less effective as well, 66 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 1: as it had a forty percent with rate last year, 67 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:34,079 Speaker 1: it's only around twenty eight so far early parts of 68 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 1: this season. Of course, he did manage so much better 69 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 1: last year with his stuff dropping, But what stands out 70 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 1: now is his K percentage has dropped to a career 71 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 1: low seventeen percent and the second highest walk percentage of 72 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 1: over seven percent. His three two three ERA looks pretty solid, 73 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 1: but he has an expected ERA in XBA over five. 74 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 1: Most of his expected stats are telling similar stories, like 75 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 1: batting average against his sitting around two thirty but with 76 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 1: an expected BA XBA of two ninety. A real blanket 77 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 1: statement here is his Baseball Savant page is just blue 78 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 1: as ever, he's defied so much of these expected metrics, 79 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 1: But my worry is he's not going to be able 80 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 1: to get away with what he did last year. Biaber 81 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: still has solid value and it's something I am currently 82 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:24,039 Speaker 1: looking to cash in on or you know, if I 83 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 1: actually had shares of Shane Bieber. Coming in at number 84 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 1: three is Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Key Brian Hayes. We 85 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 1: haven't talked about him a whole lot this year. The 86 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:35,920 Speaker 1: Pirates are one of the biggest early surprises this season. 87 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 1: Everyone is getting it going except Key Brian Hayes. Hayes 88 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:43,280 Speaker 1: is hitting just two twenty seven with one homer, but 89 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: he does have three stolen bases, which is kind of 90 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 1: something he does. The good news is everything under the 91 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 1: hood is telling us a completely different story, or a 92 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 1: potential new story. Hayes has a two thirty seven babbit, 93 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 1: which is in the bottom twenty worst in baseball. Yet 94 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:03,359 Speaker 1: he has a top twenty expected positive batting average. So 95 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 1: his batting average, which is low, is an XBA of 96 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:11,280 Speaker 1: actually two ninety four. He's pairing this with an average 97 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:14,280 Speaker 1: and max ev that are in the top fifteen percent 98 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: tile of the league. He's striking out also only seven 99 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 1: percent of the time. One thing to watch he has 100 00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 1: a wild ninety seven percent zone contact percentage. This usually 101 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 1: follows players with like low barrel percentage or launch angles. 102 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,279 Speaker 1: Maybe both. The barrel percentage it's still low, but the 103 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 1: launch angle is improved so far it's around thirteen degrees, 104 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:38,159 Speaker 1: which last year it was around five. We do kind 105 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: of do this thing with Hayes a lot, though, where 106 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:43,360 Speaker 1: he's got these skills of a player that is ready 107 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,360 Speaker 1: to break out and it just doesn't exactly happen under 108 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 1: the hood. You've got the hard hit, you've got the 109 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:51,359 Speaker 1: stolen bases that are coming out of position, but it 110 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: just kind of never necessarily comes to be. But maybe 111 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 1: it is this year. Sometimes winning is contagious, and if 112 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 1: things start clicking for Hayes, he has got all those 113 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 1: metrics to jump right in to being a potential twenty 114 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 1: twenty player this year. I assume the cost is going 115 00:06:07,279 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 1: to be nice and cheap, and I think that's why 116 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:12,480 Speaker 1: he's worth an ad or at least go around the 117 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 1: trade market and find out how low can they go. 118 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 1: Coming in at number two is another player we're buying. 119 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 1: We're buying the rest of the way here. It is 120 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 1: Baltimore Orioles first baseman, Ryan Mountcastle. The home runs have 121 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,320 Speaker 1: been coming from mount Castle. He's already got six. But 122 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 1: what has his value down is he's hitting under two 123 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:34,039 Speaker 1: twenty like Hayes, though Mountcastle has so much going for 124 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: him that when it starts going his way, watch out. 125 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 1: Currently he has the eighth worst babbitt in baseball, just 126 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 1: two oh three, which, by the way, he is a 127 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 1: career three to zero four babbit player. Like Hayes. He's 128 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 1: got an expected batting average in XBA quite a bit higher. 129 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 1: It's actually the eighth biggest difference in all of baseball, 130 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 1: from a two to sixteen batting average to a two 131 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: ninety nine XBA. He's also in the ten percentile in 132 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 1: the league with average ex velocity x slug hard hit 133 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: percentage and one of the best wobacon in the league. 134 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:12,920 Speaker 1: He's also on a three year low strikeout percentage and 135 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 1: is barreling the ball more. He's in fact, got the 136 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: fourteenth best barrels per played appearance at thirteen point three. 137 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 1: That's in all baseball. Mountcastle had one of the highest 138 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: expected home run total differentials from his actual home run 139 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 1: total last year. So now as we look at the 140 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 1: power coming up and what could be coming in all 141 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 1: those expected numbers, Mountcastle is a big buy right now. 142 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 1: For me. He's probably my top hitter to acquire on 143 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 1: the cheap over the next week or two. So maybe 144 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 1: you can go and see what it's going to cost 145 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 1: to get a little bit of Ryan Mountcastle, and hopefully 146 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 1: it's not too expensive. Finally, up here it is Cincinnati 147 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 1: Reds starting pitcher Nick Ledolo. Lodolo got lit up in 148 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: his April eighteenth start for eight runs. He looked like 149 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 1: he had like no command either from fastball to secondaries. 150 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 1: It's worrisome in general since he's a Reds pitcher, but 151 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 1: it also creates a really good buying opportunity. Lodolo, as 152 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 1: of that four to eighteen start, had an expected ERA 153 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 1: that was one and a half runs better than his 154 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 1: actual ERA. His expected batting average against versus his actual 155 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 1: batting average given has the highest differential of any starting 156 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 1: pitcher in baseball. He's giving up a three to twenty 157 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 1: six batting average, but is expected is one hundred points 158 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 1: lower at a two twenty batting average against. It seems 159 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:40,199 Speaker 1: as if there is some maybe pitch comfortability issues, as 160 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 1: he's leaving more pitches inside the zone, which is causing 161 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 1: a eighty six point five percent zone contact percentage. Last 162 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 1: year that was around seventy eight percent. He's also not 163 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:52,440 Speaker 1: throwing a sinker since it's been getting hit and now 164 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:54,439 Speaker 1: he's becoming more of kind of like a three pitch 165 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 1: pitcher early on. You don't want to make excuses for 166 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 1: one guy and not give it to another guy. But 167 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 1: is so talented and he's got one of the best 168 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:05,679 Speaker 1: strikeout pitches in baseball in that curve to not take 169 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 1: a shot on him, and I think the three pitches 170 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:11,200 Speaker 1: that he's being primarily is affecting his ability to get 171 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 1: some of those early strikeouts because he has a little 172 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 1: bit more of an offering and it is in that sinker. 173 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,120 Speaker 1: There's going to most likely be a start in between 174 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,840 Speaker 1: this recording and airing of this video, So I'm gonna 175 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:23,560 Speaker 1: tell you guys, hopefully it's like an okay outing, so 176 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 1: it's not crazy worrisome, but it's not too good. So 177 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:31,040 Speaker 1: that window, that opportunity window stays open for Lodolo. Good 178 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: pitchers on bad teams, they're kind of tough to juggle, 179 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:38,280 Speaker 1: but he is worth it, especially at what I think 180 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:40,440 Speaker 1: the cost is going to be. And he's at the 181 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:44,000 Speaker 1: top of this week's trade video right here on Fantasy Pros. 182 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 1: Thank you guys so much for coming and hanging out 183 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: with me. Who are you trading for? Trading away? Drop 184 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:52,079 Speaker 1: it in the comments section, Let's see what you got, 185 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:54,560 Speaker 1: who's getting the most up voted on what trades to 186 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:56,839 Speaker 1: make or who to get rid of. It is still 187 00:09:56,880 --> 00:09:59,720 Speaker 1: early in the season, but the sample sizes are open up. 188 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: Make sure you're subscribed and you're notified. Do all both 189 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 1: of those on the channel so you can get hooked up. 190 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 1: But once you're subscribed, you can make all those comments below. 191 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 1: Let's blow it out the water, get the most comments 192 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 1: we've had all year, and let's see who the top 193 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: voted for trade is and all the land. You guys 194 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:16,439 Speaker 1: can find me on Twitter at is it the Welsh 195 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 1: if you want to chat, and go to fantasypros dot 196 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 1: com if you want to get a premium account today, 197 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 1: because you should. It'll help you out crazy powerful tools 198 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 1: and you can come hang out in the discord as always, 199 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:28,199 Speaker 1: make sure you are subscribed to the channel because you'll 200 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 1: get notified when Joe Pzpa drops his Waiver Wire video 201 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 1: and when I'm back here again next week. Plus we've 202 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 1: got leading off live Monday through Friday. Thanks so much 203 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:39,200 Speaker 1: for hanging out and I We'll talk to you next 204 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:43,320 Speaker 1: time right here on Fantasy Pros. Bye friends, thanks for listening. 205 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:46,959 Speaker 1: To the Fantasy Pros Baseball podcast, follow us on Twitter 206 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 1: at Fantasy Pros MLB, and subscribe to our YouTube channel 207 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 1: at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy PROSMLB.